Tuesday, January 31, 2012

January continues the trend of the last 6 months...Warm and dry in the Twin Ports.

Issued at 4:06 PM CST, Tuesday, January 31st, 2012

  • Warmer than average temperatures thru early next week
  • No significant storms for the next 2 weeks

February climate data for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Average monthly temperature:  15.1 degrees
Average snowfall:  12.4"
Average precipitation:  0.81"

Sunrise on February 1st:  7:33 AM CST
Sunset on February 1st:  5:11 PM CST

Sunrise on February 29th:  6:49 AM CST
Sunset on February 29th:  5:53 PM CST

*Updated February outlook from the Climate Prediction Center*

For Duluth, Minnesota:

33% chance of above average temperatures with equal chances for above, normal or below normal precipitation.





Weather Tidbits:

*January 2012 will finish in the top 10 in least snowiest and warmest at Duluth, Minnesota.  Final numbers will be calculated later This Evening (NWS Duluth, MN)  Note:  Preliminary data has this January at the 6th warmest in Duluth and 9th warmest in the Twin Cities (Updraft MPR)

*Dating back to last year the precipitation deficit going into February stands at -5.49" at Duluth, Minnesota.

*January 2012 will likely go down as the coldest on record at Bettles, Galena and Nome, Alaska (TWC)

*5th coldest January on record at Fairbanks, Alaska.  Average temperature was -26.7 degrees.  Anchorage, Alaska had their 3rd coldest January on record with an average temperature of 3.0 degrees.  (Capitalweather)

*Temperature dropped to at least 40 below 16 times in January at Fairbanks, Alaska.  This is the most since 1971.  (Capitalweather)

Snow depth report as of 6 AM CST Tuesday, January 31st, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Northeast Minnesota:

Duluth:  4.0"
International Falls:  8.0"
7 miles northwest of Brainerd:  5.0"
Bruno:  5.0"
3 miles east of Wright:  3.0"
Cass Lake:  8.0"
Dixon Lake:  9.0"
Northome:  6.0"
Walker:  4.0"
Cook:  8.0"
Embarrass:  8.0"
Grand Portage:  7.0"
Kabetogama:  16.0"
Finland:  12.0"
3 miles east of Orr:  10.0"

Northwest Wisconsin:

Upson:  14.0"
4 miles west of Clam Lake:  10.0"
Gordon:  7.0"
Solon Springs:  6.0"
Superior:  2.0"
Hurley:  14.0"


Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

An area of low pressure averaging 1002mb has moved into Central Lake Superior late This Afternoon.  This low brought a light wintry mix of precipitation to the area last night and early Today.  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies were common Today with unseasonably warm temperatures as we end the month of January.  Highs were in the 30s and 40s with the warmest temperatures occurring in Northwestern Wisconsin.  Winds Today were out of the southwest or west-northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

RUC model and water vapor satellite imagery indicate a W/NW 500mb flow covering the Upper Midwest with one disturbance exiting to our east while another one drops E-SE into the Northern Rockies.  850mb temperatures have cooled compared to 24 hours ago, but are still mild for this time of year.  4pm 850's ranged from +4 degrees in Southwest Minnesota to 0 to -2 degrees C in Northern Minnesota per RUC model.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight through Wednesday Night (January 31st-February 1st)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue during this period and a few snow flurries cannot be ruled out from time to time.  Low temperatures will be in the teens and 20s Tonight and mainly the 20s Wednesday Night.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the 30s.  Winds during this period will be from the west, northwest or southwest at up to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast (February 2nd-4th)

Upper level pattern will become more amplified late this week.  Strong 500mb trough and area of low pressure will move into the Southern Plains with rain and snow developing on Thursday and lingering thru Saturday for the Central Plains, Western High Plains and Rockies.  All of this precipitation will stay well to the south of our local area as high pressure to our west-north feeds dry air into the region.  High temperatures from Thursday through Saturday will mainly be in the 30s with lows Thursday Night and Friday Night in the 20s.

Note:  Map below shows the 5 day precipitation forecast valid thru Sunday, February 5th, 2012 (HPC)



Long Range Forecast (February 5th-11th)

Pattern will deamplify somewhat for next week, but will still be unfavorable for any big storms for the Upper Midwest.  Temperatures are forecasted to remain on the mild side with some cooling (nothing significant) possibly moving in sometime mid-late next week, or after February 8th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 22 to 27.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 33 to 38.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Variable cloudiness.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 37 to 42.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 31 to 36.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  20
Low:    2

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:33 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   5:11 PM CST

Tim











Monday, January 30, 2012

Wintry mix of precip in parts of the Northland Tonight. Very warm temps/record highs in the Plains Today. Major model differences showing up this weekend.

Issued at 4:05 PM CST, Monday, January 30th, 2012

  • A wintry mix of precipitation Tonight and Tuesday for Northern Minnesota
  • Above average temperatures will continue for the next several days
  • Generally dry after Tuesday

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A winter weather advisory is in effect from 9pm CST This Evening until 12pm CST Tuesday for the following Counties in Northern Minnesota:  Koochiching...Northern Itasca...Central and Northern St. Louis...Northern Lake...and Northern Cook.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  International Falls...Bigfork...Togo...Hibbing...Virginia...Crane Lake...Orr...Ely...Isabella...and Forest Center.

Discussion:  A mixture of sleet, freezing rain and snow will affect Northern Minnesota from mid-Evening through early Tuesday Afternoon.  Snow accumulations of 1-2" are possible by Tuesday.  Ice accumulations will be under 0.10".  Roads will become slippery due to the freezing rain and snow.

A winter weather advisory for mixed precipitation means a mixture of freezing rain, sleet and snow is expected.  Some accumulations of snow and ice are expected on untreated roads and sidewalks.  Anyone with travel plans should be prepared for slippery roads and reduced visibility.  Slow down when driving and allow extra stopping distance because you may loose control of your vehicle if you try to slow down or stop quickly.

Weather Advisory outline area per HAMweather

Warning Map

Weather Tidbits:

*50 below at Fairbanks, Alaksa this past weekend.  1st time reaching -50 degrees in 6 years.  (Updraft MPR)

*Today marks the 9th time this winter with a high temperature of 50+ degrees at Chicago, Illinois.  5 is the average for high temperatures to reach the 50s thru January 30th, dating back to 1928.  (Tom Skilling)

*48.5% of the Upper Midwest is covered by snow Today which is down from 90.9% at this time last week.  Last year at this time, 86.5% of the Upper Midwest was covered by snow.  (NOHRSC)

Very warm temperatures Today in Southwestern Minnesota

Below is a listing of temperatures from 2pm, January 30th, 2012

Montevideo, MN:  55 degrees
Madison, MN:  54 degrees
Olivia, MN:  54 degrees
Marshall, MN:  54 degrees
Redwood Falls, MN:  50 degrees

Numerous record high temperatures Today in the Central and Northern Plains
Source:  coolwx.com



Note:  Here are just a few of the record highs from January 30th, 2012.

Omaha, Nebraska:  66 degrees.  Previous record high:  57 degrees set in 1988.
Lincoln, Nebraska:  69 degrees.  Previous record high:  59 degrees set in 1992.
Des Moines, Iowa:  64 degrees.  Previous record high:  57 degrees set in 1988.
Williston, North Dakota:  50 degrees.  Previous record high:  46 degrees set in 1992.
Minot, North Dakota:  46 degrees.  Previous record high:  44 degrees set in 1992.

Weather History:

On this date in 1994:  A record low temperature of -35 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A warm front was centered basically along the I94 corridor in Central Minnesota This Afternoon.  Unseasonably warm temperatures were found south of this boundary Today with 40s and 50s in Southern Minnesota with 60s and even some 70s from Southern South Dakot and Central Iowa and points south from there.  Our area was north of the warm front Today and as a result temperatures were much cooler with 20s and low 30s covering the Northland which is still about 5 degrees or so above the average for late January.  A band of light snow passed through the area late last night/This Morning with accumulations anywhere from a few tenths of an inch to as much as 1.5".  Winds Today were from the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Westerly 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest with a disturbance heading east through the Northern Plains per water vapor satellite imagery.  Incredibly warm 850mb temperatures covered the region late This Afternoon.  +10 degrees C in far Southwest Minnesota to +2 to +4 degrees C in Northcentral and Eastern Minnesota with 0 to -6 degree C H85 temps in the Arrowhead of Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 30th)

Low pressure will move from Northern North Dakota to Northern Minnesota by dawn.  A wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain will affect locations along and north of Highway 2 Tonight with some patchy fog and light freezing drizzle possible in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Lows Tonight will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees with south or east winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Note:  Map below represents the 850mb temperatures valid at 9pm Tonight per RUC model:  Almost all of the Northland is in the +2 to +6 degree C range at 5,000 feet (850mb)  A warm layer aloft combined with below freezing temperatures at the surface will result in some freezing rain and sleet in Northern Minnesota Tonight.



Tuesday and Tuesday Night (January 31st)

Low pressure will exit to our east Tomorrow while a potent disturbance drops SE through our area.  A mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain will continue Tomorrow Morning along and north of Highway 2 with a transition to some snow showers taking place during the Afternoon.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 30s but a few 40s are possible in Northwest Wisconsin.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 20s.  South or east winds will become west at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast (February 1st-3rd)

High temperatures from Wednesday through Friday will reach the 30s in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night in the teens and 20s.  Looks generally dry from mid to late week.

Long Range Forecast (February 4th-10th)

Computer models are struggling this weekend.  A few of them show a storm affecting the Upper Midwest as low pressure heads northeast out of the Plains.  Other models keep any such storm well to our south.  The 500mb pattern is forecasted to become very amplified/blocky by this weekend which could then carry over into next week, result from this will likely be big fluctuations in the computer models during the next couple days.

12z EUROPEAN forecast for Saturday Morning, February 4th, 2012



12z GEM-global forecast for Saturday Morning, February 4th, 2012



5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Light freezing rain, sleet or snow possible at times after 8pm.  Low 21 to 26.  Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of precipitation 40%.

.Tuesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog and light freezing drizzle possible during the Morning.  Scattered snow showers or flurries possible through the day.  High 33 to 38.  Wind becoming west at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of precipitation 30%.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  20
Low:    2

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:35 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   5:10 PM CST

Tim



Sunday, January 29, 2012

Snow arrives late Tonight...Ends before Noon Monday. 1-3" accumulations, highest totals along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Issued at 5:03 PM CST, Sunday, January 29th, 2012

  • A cold Evening, then rising temperatures Overnight
  • Snow Overnight thru midday Monday, some accumulation likely
  • Another system Monday Night-Tuesday takes the northern route
  • Temperatures will be above average most of this week

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A chilly day with highs in the teens which is near to slightly below average for late January.  Sunshine was abundant throughout the area with light winds under 10 mph.  A strong warm front was heading east through the Dakotas Today with a big range in temperatures.  26 degrees at Bismarck, North Dakota to 51 degrees at Dickinson, North Dakota (5pm)

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest with strong warm and moist advection heading east out of the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains.  PWS late This Afternoon ranged from 0.10-0.30" in Minnesota to a half inch in the Central-Western Dakotas.  850mb temperatures as of 4pm ranged from -14 degrees C in Northern Minnesota to +10 degrees C in Southwest North Dakota and Western South Dakota per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 29th)

Temperatures will drop This Evening under mostly clear skies and nearly calm winds.  Expect temperatures through Midnight to bottom out in the single digits below to single digits above zero with some teens below possible in far Northeast Minnesota.  Temperatures will rise after Midnight and should be in the single digits and teens by dawn as clouds increase while warm air advection spreads into the area.

Snow will develop between 9pm-Midnight from the Brainerd Lakes, Bigfork to International Falls area.  Snow will spread east after Midnight and should reach the I35 corridor, Twin Ports and Iron Range after 2am.

Expect southeast winds to develop during the night at 5 to 15 mph.

Monday and Monday Night (January 30th)

A warm front will reach Central Minnesota and Northcentral Wisconsin during this period with low pressure tracking east through North Dakota Monday Night.  Light snow and flurries will end from west to east on Monday.  Skies will be mostly cloudy Tomorrow with highs in the 20s to lower 30s.  Mostly cloudy skies should continue for Monday Night with light snow or a wintry mix of precipitation developing in Northern Minnesota while areas farther south have a risk for some patchy light freezing drizzle and fog.  Lows Monday Night will be in the 20s.  Winds during this period will be out of the south or east at 10 to 15 mph.

Note:  Snowfall accumulations Tonight and Monday will generally be around an inch in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with 2-3" possible along the North Shore of Lake Superior, northeast of Duluth.

HPC's 1" or greater snowfall threat map for Tonight and Monday:



Extended Forecast (January 31st-February 2nd)

Low pressure will track east across Northern Minnesota on Tuesday.  Light snow or a mixture of precipitation is expected to affect Northern and Northeast Minnesota on Tuesday with patchy light drizzle, freezing drizzle and fog possible in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 30s.  This low exits to our east Tuesday Night with some possible flurries lingering in our area.  Lows will be in the teens and 20s.  A few flurries can't be ruled out for Wednesday and Thursday, but nothing significant is expected at this time.  Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Wednesday Night in the teens and 20s.

High probs. for at least 0.01" of ICE accumulation in the Northland Monday Night-Tuesday (HPC)



Note:  Snowfall accumulations of 1-2" are possible on Tuesday, mainly north of a Bigfork to Silver Bay, Minnesota line.

Long Range Forecast (February 3rd-9th)

Overall the weather pattern is a dry one for our neck of the woods with a N/NW 500mb flow developing across Central Canada, Great Lakes and Upper Midwest.  Biggest issue for our area will be the temperatures and the computer models seem to be trending toward a cooler regime during this period compared to what they have been showing in previous days.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear This Evening.  Increasing cloudiness Overnight.  Light snow and flurries developing between 1-3am.  Low 3 to 8 with temperatures rising into the teens by dawn.  Light wind, becoming east to southeast around 10 mph Overnight.  Chance of snow 70%.

.Monday...  Light snow and flurries during the Morning.  Total accumulations around 1".  Mostly cloudy with patchy light freezing drizzle or fog possible.  High 25 to 30.  Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of snow 70% during the Morning.

.Monday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog and light freezing drizzle.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog and light freezing drizzle.  High 30 to 35.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  20
Low:    2

Sunrise Monday:  7:36 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   5:08 PM CST

Tim

Saturday, January 28, 2012

Brief cold snap (near average temps) nice thaw for next week. 1" of snow possible late Sun Night-Mon?

Issued at 4:35 PM CST, Saturday, January 28th, 2012

  • Flurries and snow showers around the area Tonight
  • A cold Sunday ahead
  • Warmer temperatures return on Monday and will stick around for several more days
  • Amplified weather pattern sets up by the end of next week

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Temperatures cooled off a bit Today compared to the past few days.  Highs were in the upper teens to middle 20s which is right around average for late Janaury.  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies were found in our area with occasional flurries and snow showers.  Winds were out of the northwest or west-southwest at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest with Friday's disturbance now in Eastern Canada while a new disturbance drops SE out of North Dakota per water vapor satellite imagery.  A powerful 130-150 knot jet stream extended from Saskatchewan Province to the Western Dakota per RUC model analysis with a surge of colder air pushing south into the Upper Midwest ahead of this strong jet stream.  850mb temperatures as of 4pm ranged from -12 degrees C in Northern Minnesota to -6 degrees C in Southwest Minnesota.  -16 to -20 degree C 850mb temperatures were sitting to our north late This Afternoon and some of this cold air will find it's way into the Northland during the next 24 hours.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 28th)

Occasional snow showers and flurries will linger throughout the area with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Snowfall accumulations of around an inch will be possible along the South Shore of Lake Superior, especially in Iron County.  Lows Tonight will be in the single digits below to low teens above zero.  Winds will be out of the west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night (January 29th)

High pressure will keep the area dry on Sunday, although some lake effect snow showers are possible mainly in Iron County where another inch of snow could accumulate on Sunday.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the single digits and teens with northwest or southwest winds at up to 20 mph.  Warm advection pattern develops Sunday Night as high pressure moves off to our east and a warm front approaches from the Northern Plains.  Southerly winds will develop Sunday Night with increasing cloudiness. 

Light snow and flurries will develop by mid-late Evening from the Brainerd Lakes area, north to Bigfork and International Falls.  This snow will spread east, reaching the Iron Range, Twin Ports and I35 corridor after 1am Sunday Night.  Snow should reach the North Shore/Arrowhead and Northwest Wisconsin toward dawn on Monday.

Temperatures Sunday Night will hold pretty steady from Tomorrow's highs.  Winds Sunday Night will be out of the south or southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

Note:  Snowfall accumulations of around an inch are possible in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Sunday Night into Monday.

1" or greater snowfall map for Sunday Night and Monday per HPC:



Extended Forecast (January 30th-February 1st)

Light snow and flurries will persist across our area Monday Morning as warm air advection continues with a warm front to our west/south.  This snow should come to an end from west to east Monday Afternoon.  Low pressure will pass through the Upper Midwest on Tuesday, right now it appears that the best chance for some light snow or a wintry mix of precipitation will be in Northern Minnesota with maybe some patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle affecting parts of Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Tuesday.  This system exits to our east for Tuesday Night and Wednesday.  Some flurries could linger in parts of our area Tuesday Night with dry weather for Wednesday.  High temperatures from Monday through Wednesday will be in the 20s and 30s, but a few spots could approach 40 degrees on Tuesday.  Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the 20s.

Long Range Forecast (February 2nd-8th)

Upper level pattern is forecasted to become quite amplified during this period.  The computer models are not handling this pattern change too well with some drastic shifts noted in some of the models from one run to the next.  There are no signs of any big storms affecting the Upper Midwest, but the temperature forecast is up in the air at this time.  It does appear that an upper level ridge will build into the Western U.S. starting late this week which will then carry over into the following week, but how far east this ridge builds is uncertain at the moment.  If this ridge can build into the Upper Midwest, then a period of unseasonably mild temperatures would likely occur..Highs at least in the 30s and 40s, perhaps even warmer! Should this ridge stay farther west, then the Upper Midwest would likely have colder temperatures, possibly even arctic air as cold air would build south from Hudson Bay/Northern Canada.

500mb map for Saturday, February 4th per HPC: 

Note:  Keep an eye on that ridge in the Western U.S. If it ends up farther east than what this map shows, then it would be a warm Super Bowl weekend in Minnesota.  If it stays farther west like what is depicted here, then it would be a chilly Super Bowl weekend for our area.



5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Occasional snow flurries.  Low 0 to 5.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Wind chills around 10 to 15 below Overnight.

.Sunday...  Mostly sunny.  High 10 to 15.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.  Morning wind chills around 10 to 15 below.

.Sunday Night...  Increasing cloudiness.  Light snow or flurries possible after 2am.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind becoming south to southeast around 10 mph.  Chance of snow 40%.

.Monday...  Light snow or flurries possible during the Morning.  Total snowfall accumulations of 1" or less.  Mostly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.  Chance of snow 60%.

.Monday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Tuesday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  20
Low:    2

Sunrise Sunday:  7:37 AM CST
Sunset Sunday:   5:07 PM CST

Tim

Friday, January 27, 2012

A snowy Friday...1-5" totals! Complete listing below.

Issued at 3:54 PM CST, Friday, January 27th, 2012

  • A quick, but intense snowfall across parts of our area Today
  • Colder weekend ahead with Sunday being the coldest day
  • Flurries/snow showers possible this weekend
  • Warmer temperatures for next week

Snowfall report for Friday, January 27th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

McKinley, MN (St. Louis County)  5.5"
8 miles south of Bigfork, MN (Itasca County)  5.3"
6 miles west of Bowstring, MN (Itasca County)  5.0"
5 miles north of Virginia, MN (St. Louis County)  4.0"
Dixon Lake, MN (Itasca County)  4.0"
Nashwauk, MN (Itasca County)  3.2"
Cotton, MN (St. Louis County)  2.5"
Bigfork, MN (Itasca County)  2.5"
12 miles north of Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County)  2.5"
Saginaw, MN (St. Louis County)  2.5"
7 miles northwest of Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)  2.3"
Moose Lake, MN (Carlton County)  2.0"
Little Marais, MN (Lake County)  2.0"  Note:  Fell an 1 hour.
3 miles north of Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County)  1.0"
3 miles northeast of Nisswa, MN (Crow Wing County)  1.0"
5 miles northeast of Hayward, WI (Sawyer County)  1.0"

5 miles northwest of Duluth, Minnesota (St. Louis County)  1.8" Official NWS total thru 4pm.
Superior, WI (Douglas County)  2.2"

Weather Tidbits:

*23 days so far this winter with at least 0.1" of snow at Duluth, Minnesota.  7 days with at least 1.0" of snow and 2 days with at least 2.0" of snow.

*Prior to January 27th, our last day with at least 1.0" of snow occurred on December 31st at Duluth, MN.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1008mb was moving into Western Wisconsin late This Afternoon.  This system produced the snow that affected our area Today.  In general, 1-3" of snow accumulated, but there was a narrow corridor that picked up 4-5" of snow north of Duluth.  The heaviest snow lasted about an hour or two with lingering light snow and flurries persisting for about another hour.  Temperatures remained above average Today with highs in the 20s and 30s.  Winds were out of the south, east or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Westerly 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery with one disturbance exiting to our east while another disturbance drops SE into the Northern Plains.  850mb temperatures as of 4pm ranged from -8 degrees C in Northeast Minnesota to -4 degrees C in Southern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 27th)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected.  Snow in Northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead of Minnesota will end from west to east before Midnight.  Snowfall totals in these areas should generally be in the 1-3" range.  Scattered flurries could occur across the entire area Overnight.  Lows will be in the teens, but some spots could dip into the single digits.  Winds will be out of the northwest or west at up to 20 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night (January 28th)

An upper level trough will begin to push into the Upper Midwest during this period while an upper level disturbance passes west-south of our area.  Scattered flurries and snow showers are possible in our area during this period with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the teens and 20s with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits below to low teens above zero.  Winds will be out of the southwest or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast (January 29th-31st)

Sunday will be a chilly one with highs in the single digits and teens.  Lows Sunday Night will be similar to the day's high due to a warm front which will move into Minnesota from the Dakotas.  This warm front could generate some light snow and flurries from Sunday Night into Monday with accumulations of 1" or less.  Highs on Monday will be in the 20s to lower 30s with lows Monday Night in the teens and 20s.  Another area of low pressure will pass across the Upper Midwest on Tuesday, this system could bring some light snow or a wintry mix of precipitation to the area, although no significant accumulations are expected at this time.  Highs on Tuesday will mainly be in the 30s.

Long Range Forecast (February 1st-7th)

Looks pretty quiet the middle of next week.  Low pressure and upper level trough could affect our weather to some extent late next week/next weekend with some possible snow showers.  The computer models are at odds when it comes to temperatures, especially from February 3rd-7th.  Some of them show possible arctic air pushing south into the Upper Midwest while others bring quite a bit of warm air into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.

Note:  Climate Prediction Center says what cold for the 1st and 2nd week of February.

6-10 day temperature outlook (Feb. 2nd-6th)



8-14 day temperature outlook (Feb. 4nd-10th)



5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Variable cloudiness.  Flurries possible.  High 20 to 25.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Variable cloudiness.  Flurries possible.  Low zero to 5.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 10 to 15.

.Sunday Night...  Increasing cloudiness.  Light snow or flurries possible after Midnight.  Low 3 to 8.  Chance of snow 20%.

.Monday...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible.  High 23 to 28.  Chance of snow 30%.

.Monday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 18 to 23.

.Tuesday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  20
Low:    2

Sunrise Saturday:  7:38 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   5:05 PM CST

Tim



 

Thursday, January 26, 2012

96% of Minnesota now under a moderate drought! Some snow for Friday.

Issued at 8:24 PM CST, Thursday, January 26th, 2012

  • Quiet weather Tonight
  • Snow with a couple inches of accumulation for some areas on Friday
  • Colder this weekend with some possible flurries or snow showers

Weather Tidbits:

*Thru January 25th, 2012 there have been 70 reported tornadoes in the U.S. This is the 3rd highest during the month of January since 1950.  (TWC)

*Today marks the 10th time this month with a high temperature of at least 32 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

Latest Drought Monitor for Minnesota as of January 24th, 2012.  (CPC)

Note:  Moderate drought conditions now cover 96% of Minnesota which is up from 57% last week.



Weather History:

On this date in 2004:  18.2" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Another mild day with highs in the upper 20s to middle 30s.  Overcast skies persisted all day long in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin while skies turned sunnier during the mid-late Afternoon hours in Western parts of our area.  Areas of haze, fog, light freezing drizzle and snow showers also occurred in parts of our area Today.  Winds were from the southwest or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Narrow north-south 500mb trough axis from Minnesota to Missouri was heading off to the east per water vapor satellite imagery with a W/NW upper level flow covering the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  Widespread 60-150 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls were in place across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Southern U.S. while an upper level trough over the Northwest U.S. and Northern Rockies has 60-90 meter 12 hour H5 height falls with it.  850mb temperatures as of 8pm ranged from +2 to +6 degrees C in Southwest North Dakota and Western South Dakota to -6 to -8 degrees C in Northern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 26th)

Low pressure will be centered well to our east while another system heads into the Northern Plains.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with lows in the teens and 20s, but a few locales could slip into the single digits.  Winds will be from the northwest or southwest at 5 to around 20 mph.

Friday and Friday Night (January 27th)

Low pressure will pass just south of our area on Friday before it exits to our southeast by Friday Evening.  Snow will affect Northcentral-Eastcentral Minnesota on Friday with snow passing through Northwest Wisconsin from mid-late Afternoon Friday into Friday Evening. 

Snow will reach Bigfork, Cass Lake, Walker and Brainerd between 6-8am Friday with snow heading east, reaching the Twin Ports and I35 corridor between 11am-1pm.

Latest model data shows there could be a 1-2 hour window where there could be some moderate to even heavy snowfall on Friday, especially along and south of Highway 2.  Roads could become snow covered and slippery for Friday and Friday Evening.

Total snowfall accumulations should generally range from 1-2", but an isolated 3" total is not out of the question.  Again, the higher snow totals should remain along and south of Highway 2 the way it looks now.

High temperatures on Friday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Friday Night in the single digits and teens.  Winds Tomorrow will be out of the south, east or west.  Winds Tomorrow Night will be out of the west or northwest.  Wind speeds will vary between 10 to 20 mph.

Note:  700mb map per 00z NAM forecast for 12pm Friday.  Note the orange and red colors across parts of the Northland.  This shows where there will be strong lifting which could produce a period of moderate to even heavy snow on Friday.

NAM - US - 700mb - 18hr

Extended Forecast (January 28th-30th)

Cooler air moves into the Upper Midwest this weekend with highs on Saturday in the teens and 20s with highs on Sunday in the single digits and teens.  Lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero.  An upper level trough combine with a weak disturbance or two could lead to some flurries or light snow showers in our area on Saturday with dry weather expected on Sunday.  Milder air moves in on Monday which combined with a warm front could generate some light snow and flurries.  Highs on Monday will be in the 20s.

Long Range Forecast (January 31st-February 6th)

2 or 3 systems could affect the Northland during this period.  The first would be next Tuesday-early Wednesday.  With a 2nd and 3rd system possibly affecting the area late next week/next weekend.  None of these storms look big, but there could be a little bit of snow in our area if these systems materialize.  Arctic air will be kept well to our north during the beginning of February.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Low 13 to 18.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Clouding up during the Morning.  Snow developing between 11am-1pm with some snow lingering through the Afternoon.  High 27 to 32.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph becoming west late.  Chance of snow increasing to 80% by the Afternoon.

.Friday Night...  Light snow or flurries early.  Total snowfall accumulations of 1-2" possible.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of snow 60% early.

.Saturday...  Flurries possible.  Partly sunny.  High 18 to 23.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 2 below to 3 above.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 10 to 15.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low zero to 5.

.Monday...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries possible.  High 20 to 25.  Chance of snow 30%.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  20
Low:    2

Sunrise Friday:  7:39 AM CST
Sunset Friday:   5:04 PM CST

Tim



Clearing heading east!

Issued at 3:47 PM CST, Thursday, January 26th, 2012

Sunshine has broken out late This Afternoon in the Brainerd Lakes region, extending north into Western Itasca and Western Koochiching Counties in Northern Minnesota.  Expect the clearing line to reach International Falls, Grand Rapids and McGregor, MN by 4:30-5pm.  The Iron Range, Twin Ports and I35 corridor between 5-6pm.

Visible satellite from Nexlab-College of Dupage website.



Tim

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Very mild temps Tonight and Thursday. Watchout for some patchy fog, flakes and freezing drizzle Tonight.


Issued at 8:29 PM CST, Wednesday, January 25th, 2012

  • Warmer than average temperatures continue into Friday
  • A little bit of snow, light freezing drizzle or fog possible Tonight
  • Turns colder this weekend before it warms up again for next week

Weather Tidbits:

*Thru January 24th, 2012 there have been 59 tornadoes reported in the U.S.  Only 4 other January's have had more than 50 tornadoes.  1999; 218.  2008; 88.  1975; 54.  1997; 50.  (TWC)

*51 severe weather and 7 tornado reports across Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi on January 24th-25th, 2012.  (SPC)


Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 994mb was centered in Western Manitoba Province This Evening with a warm southerly flow occurring in the Upper Midwest ahead of this low.  Highs Today were in the upper 20s to middle 30s which is 10 to around 15 degrees above normal for late January.  Winds Today were out of the south at 5 to around 20 mph.  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies covered our area with some patchy fog, haze, flurries and light freezing drizzle.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

W/SW 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest while a potent disturbance to our northwest and 60-90 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls spread into our area from the Northern Plains.  Upper level low was over Texas This Evening per water vapor satellite imagery with some much needed rain continuing to fall in portions of the Southern Plains.  A powerful jet of 130-160 knots was aimed at the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies per RUC model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 8pm ranged from +2 degrees C in Western and Southern Minnesota to zero to -2 degrees C in Northern and Eastern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 25th)

Low pressure will be centered to our northwest while a cold front moves east out of the Dakotas.  Mostly cloudy skies will occur Tonight with areas of fog and light freezing drizzle along with some passing snow showers and flurries.  Only minor accumulations of a half inch or less of snow are forecasted Tonight with little if any ice accumulations, but it only takes a small amount of ice to cause some travel issues.  Lows Tonight will be in the teens and 20s with south or west winds from 5 to around 20 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night (January 26th)

Low pressure will be centered to our north while a cold front pushes off to our south/east.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected during this period with some flurries or snow showers possible on Thursday.  Could even be some lingering fog or light freezing drizzle early in the day.  Temperatures will stay mild with highs on Thursday in the 20s and 30s with lows Thursday Night in the teens and 20s.  Winds during this period will be from the west, northwest or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast (January 27th-29th)

Low pressure passes west-south of the area on Friday...This system could go on to produce a minor 1-2" snowfall event in Southern Minnesota on Friday with some flurries/snow showers possible farther north.  Upper level trough digs into the Upper Midwest this weekend which could lead to some additional flurries and snow showers, but no major accumulations are expected at this time.  Highs on Friday will be in the 20s and 30s with high temperatures for Saturday in the teens and 20s.  Coldest day looks to be on Sunday when highs will be in the single digits and teens.  Low temperatures Friday Night will be in the teens.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero.

Note:  700mb map valid for 12pm CST Friday, Jan. 27th, 2012.  This map depicts areas of lift which could help to produce a brief period of snow from early-mid Friday Afternoon.  Note the yellow and orange colors in NE Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, decent lift!  NAM forecast (unisys)

NAM - US - 700mb - 30hr


Long Range Forecast (January 30th-February 5th)

Could be dealing with some weak systems during this forecast period, but none of them look very strong and they shouldn't produce much in the way of snow for our area.  One system could affect the region around Monday (30th) of next week with a 2nd-3rd system possible toward the middle and end of next week.  No arctic airmasses during the last 2 days of January and thru the first 5 days of February.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog and light freezing drizzle with a few snow showers or flurries also possible.  Low 23 to 28.  Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly to mostly sunny.  Patchy fog, light freezing drizzle of flurries possible during the Morning.  High 31 to 36.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 13 to 18.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries possible.  High 27 to 32.  Chance of snow 30%.

.Friday Night...  Variable cloudiness.  Flurries possible.  Low 10 to 15.

.Saturday...  Flurries possible.  Partly sunny.  High 18 to 23.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 2 below to 3 above.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 10 to 15.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  19
Low:    1

Sunrise Thursday:  7:40 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   5:02 PM CST

Tim

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

A light dusting of snow possible Overnight for some parts of the Northland.

Issued at 8:24 PM CST, Tuesday, January 24th, 2012

  • Above average temperatures thru Friday
  • A few weak systems with dustings of snow possible into the weekend
  • Colder temperatures arrive on Saturday and Sunday

Weather Tidbits:

*January 2012 looks like it will go down as the 7th consecutive month with an above average temperature and the 5th consecutive month with below average precipitation at Duluth, Minnesota.

*Precipitation deficit thru January 23rd is up to 5.47" at Duluth, Minnesota.

*42.2" of snow has fallen so far this month at Marquette, Michigan vs. 2.7" at Duluth, Minnesota.

Seasonal snowfall update: 

Note:  First number is the amount of snow that has fallen thru January 23rd.  The second number is the departure from average.

Duluth, Minnesota:  14.5"/-34.4"
International Falls, Minnesota:  30.3"/-12.4"
Twin Cities, Minnesota:  14.4"/-16.1"
St. Cloud, Minnesota:  12.8"/-13.3"
Grand Forks, North Dakota:  10.3"/-15.8"
Eau Claire, Wisconsin:  14.4"/-11.2"
Green Bay, Wisconsin:  12.9"/-14.0"
Marquette, Michigan:  87.6"/-17.9"

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Partly to mostly cloudy skies were common with above average temperatures.  Highs were in the middle 20s to lower 30s with winds from the south or west at under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

W/SW 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.  Strong upper level low over Southeastern New Mexico was churning slowly toward the east...This system was bringing widespread rainfall to Texas and Oklahoma Today.  Another system was affecting the Pacific Northwest as a powerful 130-150+ knot upper level jet slams into the Northwest U.S.  Most of the Northern tier of the U.S. was void of any real cold air with 850mb temperatures as of 8pm ranging from +1 degree C in Southern Minnesota to -2 to -6 degrees C in Northern Minnesota.  The coldest air has moved into Eastern Canada where 850mb temps ranged from -12 to -16 degrees C per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 24th)

A weak disturbance will pass through the Upper Midwest and could bring some flurries or light snow showers to portions of our area...Any accumulations would be minor and remain around one half inch or less.  Note:  The potential also exists for some patchy light freezing drizzle, mainly in Southern portions of the area from Brainerd to Hinckley.  Lows Tonight under partly to mostly cloudy skies will be in the teens and 20s, but some single digits are possible in spots that have mostly clear skies for a couple hours.  Winds Tonight will be out of the west or south at under 15 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (January 25th)

An area of low pressure will be centered to our northwest during this period.  Some flurries or snow showers are possible early Tomorrow Morning...And then again Wednesday Night, mainly in the Northern part of Minnesota.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Wednesday Night in the teens and 20s.  Winds will be from the south or west at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast (January 26th-28th)

Thursday will remain mild with highs in the 20s and 30s.  Looks a bit cooler on Friday with highs generally in the 20s.  Colder air (more seasonal temps) will move into the area on Saturday with highs in the teens and 20s.  Lows Thursday Night and Friday Night will be in the teens with some single digits possible in Northern Minnesota.  Could be dealing with a bit of snow late this week into Saturday as weak systems continue to pass through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, none of these disturbances look very strong at this time so nothing more than a dusting of snow is expected.

Long Range Forecast (January 29th-February 4th)

The coldest stretch of weather is forecasted to occur this weekend before temperatures moderate from January 31st-February 4th.  Pattern continues to look unfavorable for any big storm systems for the Upper Midwest into early February.

Note:  Map below is the 6-10 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.  Valid from Jan. 30th-Feb.3rd.




5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Flurries or snow showers possible Overnight.  Low 12 to 17.  Wind southwest around 12 mph.

.Wednesday...  Flurries possible.  Partly sunny.  High 28 to 33.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Variable cloudiness.  Flurries possible.  High 30 to 35.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 13 to 18.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries possible.  Low 10 to 15.

.Saturday...  Flurries possible.  Partly sunny.  High 15 to 20.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  19
Low:    1

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:41 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   5:01 PM CST

Tim

Monday, January 23, 2012

Much of the area saw a nice amount of snow the last day or so, but Duluth/Superior missed out once again.

Issued at 4:06 PM CST, Monday, January 23rd, 2012

  • Snow continues Tonight in the Arrowhead of Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
  • Should get close to 30 or break the 30 degree mark Wednesday and Thursday
  • Turns colder this weekend
  • No big storms anytime soon

Snowfall report for Saturday Night-Monday Morning, January 21st-23rd, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Orr, MN (St. Louis County)  7.7"
2 miles west-northwest of Marcell, MN (Itasca County)  6.5"
8 miles south of Bigfork, MN (Itasca County)  6.5"
Maple, WI (Douglas County)  6.3"
1 mile west of Indus, MN (Koochiching County)  6.0"
Togo, MN (Itasca County)  5.0"
2 west of Hayward, WI (Sawyer County)  5.0"
2 miles west of Hertel, WI (Burnett County)  5.0"
Oulu, WI (Bayfield County)  5.0"
International Falls, MN (Koochiching County)  4.7"
8 miles west of Remer, MN (Cass County)  4.0"
4 miles south of Northome, MN (Itasca County)  4.0"
Spooner, WI (Washburn County)  4.0"
Brule, WI (Douglas County)  4.0"
Hawthorne, WI (Douglas County)  3.5"
4 miles southeast of Bruno, MN (Pine County)  3.5"
6 miles northeast of Cloverland, WI (Douglas County)  3.0"
7 miles southeast of Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County)  3.0"
Saginaw, MN (St. Louis County)  3.0"
Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County)  2.4"
Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)  2.3"
8 miles southeast of Hayward, WI (Sawyer County)  2.3"
Alborn, MN (St. Louis County)  2.0"
Palisade, MN (Aitkin County)  1.8"
Ely, MN (St. Louis County)  1.2"

Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  0.9" official NWS total.

Weather Tidbits:

*February 14th, 2011:  Last time a 4" or greater snowfall occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

*April 16th, 2011:  Last time a 3" or greater snowfall occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

*206 preliminary severe weather reports with 25 tornadoes on January 22nd-23rd, 2012 across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast U.S.  2 fatalities and 100 injuries were reported due to a tornado in Jefferson County, Alabama This Morning.  Source:  Storm Prediction Center.  TWC.

Weather History:

On this date last year:  The low temperature was -22 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 990mb has moved into Eastern Lake Superior late This Afternoon.  Snowfall associated with this low affected Northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead of Minnesota Today with several inches of accumulation.  A seperate disturbance caused the locally heavy snowfall that affected portions of Northcentral Minnesota from late Saturday Night into Monday Morning.  Duluth was in the middle of both these heavy snow bands with only a light dusting accumulating in the city.  Highs Today ranged from the upper teens to upper 20s with winds turning to the northwest at 10 to 25 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A strong 500mb trough with 120-180 meter 12 hour height falls was moving NE through the Upper Midwest and Northern Great Lakes per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.  Northwest upper level flow was occurring in Minnesota on the backside of this system.  850mb temperatures as of 4pm ranged +2 degrees C in parts of Eastern Montana to -7 to -10 degrees C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 23rd)

Strong low pressure and upper level trough will move into Eastern Ontario Province during the night.  Light snow will persist at least through the Evening in the Arrowhead of Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with additional snowfall accumulations of 1-2".  A band of heavier lake effect snow will affect the South Shore of Lake Superior from Northern Douglas, east through Northern Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties Wisconsin.  Additional snowfall accumulations in these areas will range from 2-6".  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with lows in the single digits below to low teens above zero.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

*Winter Weather Advisory* remains in effect until Midnight CST Tonight for Cook and Lake Counties in Northeast Minnesota and for Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...Sawyer...and Price Counties in Northwest Wisconsin.

*Winter Weather Advisory* is in effect until 6 AM CST Tuesday for Iron County Wisconsin.

*Winter Weather Advisory* is in effect until 6 PM CST This Evening for Central and Northern St. Louis County Minnesota.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (January 24th)

High pressure will pass through the Upper Midwest during this period resulting in dry weather and partly cloudy skies.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the teens and 20s with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits and teens.  Winds will be from the west, northwest or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast (January 25th-27th)

W/NW upper level flow will be in place for mid to late week with mild Pacific air flowing into our area.  High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday should reach the 20s and 30s with lows both nights in the teens and 20s.  Friday turns a bit cooler with highs generally in the 20s.  A clipper or two could impact the Upper Midwest with some flurries or snow showers, but no big accumulations are anticipated at this time.

Long Range Forecast (January 28th-February 3rd)

It does look cooler during this period, but no arctic airmasses are expected at this time.  The lack of any big storms will also highlight this forecast period.  Could have the occasional weak system with a little bit of snow every now and then, but the pattern just is not favorable for a stronger storm to come up from the Rockies or Southern/Central Plains.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries mainly This Evening.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 17 to 22.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 8 to 12.  Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Thursday...  Variable cloudiness.  High 30 to 35.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 13 to 18.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  19
Low:    1

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:42 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   4:59 PM CST

Tim




Saturday, January 21, 2012

Hazardous travel conditions possible thru Monday. Some snow, light icing and maybe even some fog. Heaviest snow amounts west-north of Duluth.

Issued at 7:03 PM CST, Saturday, January 21st, 2012

  • Some snow, freezing drizzle and fog thru Sunday Night
  • Greatest snowfall accumulations should remain west-north of Duluth
  • Lingering light snow/flurries on Monday
  • Above average temperatures expected next week

Low temperature report for Saturday, January 21st, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  -10 degrees
International Falls, MN:  -21 degrees
Brainerd, MN:  -13 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  -20 degrees
Hayward, WI:  -17 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN:  -6 degrees
Grand Marais, MN:  -22 degrees
Ely, MN:  -26 degrees
Orr, MN:  -24 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  -24 degrees
Cook, MN:  -24 degrees
Longville, MN:  -17 degrees
Moose Lake, MN:  -15 degrees
Cloquet, MN:  -13 degrees
Superior, WI:  -9 degrees
Phillips, WI:  -17 degrees
Northome, MN:  -23 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  -27 degrees
4 miles east of Island Lake, MN:  -20 degrees
Kabetogama, MN:  -22 degrees
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  -25 degrees
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  -24 degrees
Butternut, WI:  -21 degrees
Upson, WI:  -28 degrees
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  -21 degrees

Weather Tidbits:

*96% of the Upper Midwest is covered by snow as of Janaury 21st.  This is up from 55% on January 14th.  The average snow depth has increased from 0.9" to 3.1" from the 14th-21st.  Last year at this time 95% of the Upper Midwest was covered by snow with an average snow depth of 14.5" (NOHRSC)

*47 preliminary severe weather reports from January 20th-21st across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast U.S. (SPC)

Weather History:

One year ago Today the high temperature was -5 degrees with a low of -25 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Temperatures have warmed up Today compared to the past couple days.  Highs were in the teens which is near to slightly below average for late January.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies were found in our area Today with some scattered snow showers and flurries at times, mainly in Northcentral Minnesota.  Winds Today were from the south or east at 5 to around 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb trough with 12 hour height falls of 90-150 meters was moving east through the Rockies per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.  110-120 knot mid and upper level jet streak was over Southern California or on the southwest side of the upper trough.  W/SW 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest out ahead of this Western system.  850mb temperatures as of 7pm ranged from +2 to +4 degrees C in Southwest Minnesota to -6 to -12 degrees C in Central and Northern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 21st)

Several areas of low pressure across the Rockies will pull out into the Northern Plains and Western High Plains during the night with a strong southwest low level jet of 40-60 knots aimed at the Upper Midwest which will result in a lot of warm air advection through the night.  Some snow will occur Tonight in Northern and Western parts of our area from Walker and Cass Lake thru Grand Rapids, Bigfork, and International Falls...east thru the Iron Range and Arrowhead.  Snowfall accumulations of around an inch or two are possible in these areas by dawn.  Patchy light freezing drizzle or flurries will be possible in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Skies will be mostly cloudy Tonight with temperatures holding steady in the teens to around 20 degrees.  Winds will remain out of the south or east at 10 to around 25 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night (January 22nd)

Low pressure will pull out into the Central Plains during the day Sunday, this low will then track NE toward Northern Illinois by late Sunday Night.  This low combined with a developing negatively tiled upper level trough will cause some precipitation in the Northland during this period.

Snow should be the main precipitation type for Northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead while farther south a mixture of snow, freezing drizzle and even some fog is expected.  Precipitation that does fall should be on the light side Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night.

Overcast skies are forecasted this period with temperatures in the teens and 20s.  Winds will be out of the south, east or north at 10 to around 20 mph.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY* has been issued from Midnight CST Tonight until Noon CST Sunday for the following Counties in Minnesota:  Koochiching...Northern Itasca...Central and Northern St. Louis...Lake...and Cook.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  International Falls...Bigfork...Hibbing...Ely...Crane Lake...Two Harbors...Isabella...Silver Bay...Lutsen...Hovland...and Grand Marais.  (NWS Duluth)

Total snowfall accumulations from Tonight through Monday:

1-3" in Northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead with localized amounts up to 4".
1-2" for Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Extended Forecast (January 23rd-25th)

Deep low pressure and strong upper level trough will exit to our northeast on Monday.  Some light snow and flurries will likely continue on Monday in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with some heavier lake effect snow showers possibly developing along the South Shore of Lake Superior as winds turn to the northwest behind the surface low.  Highs on Monday will mainly be in the 20s.  Dry weather will return to the region Monday Night into Tuesday with lows in the single digits below to around 10 above zero with highs on Tuesday in the teens to low 20s.  A weak clipper will pass by to our north from Tuesday Night into Wednesday, might get a dusting of snow across the area with this mid-week system.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees.

Long Range Forecast (January 26th-February 1st)

Doesn't look like will have any arctic airmasses in our area during this period as the flow continues to be out of the west or west-northwest.  No big storms are forecasted either.  Could see some weak clippers every now and then with the usual light dusting of snow, more or less what we have been seeing all winter.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy light freezing drizzle possible Overnight.  Flurries possible through the night.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday...  Overcast.  Occasional freezing drizzle and flurries.  Patchy fog possible.  High 23 to 28.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Overcast.  Light snow or flurries.  Freezing drizzle and fog also possible, especially during the Evening.  Low 20 to 23.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph becoming north to northwest late.

.Monday...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow and flurries.  Total snowfall accumulations of 1" or less.  High 25 to 30.

.Monday Night...  Becoming partly cloudy.  Low 0 to 5.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 17 to 22.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 8 to 12.

.Wednesday...  Flurries possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  19
Low:    1

Sunrise Sunday:  7:44 AM CST
Sunset Sunday:   4:56 PM CST

Tim





Friday, January 20, 2012

31 below This Morning at Gile, Wisconsin. Keeping an eye on a possible snow event late this weekend/early next week.

Issued at 4:02 PM CST, Friday, January 20th, 2012

  • Another cold night ahead
  • Moderating temperatures this weekend which will carry over into next week
  • Model differences linger for the Sunday-Monday system

Low temperature report for Friday, January 20th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  -12 degrees
International Falls, MN:  -20 degrees
Brainerd, MN:  -18 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  -22 degrees
Hayward, WI:  -21 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN:  -6 degrees
Ely, MN:  -24 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  -22 degrees
Eveleth, MN:  -22 degrees
Pine River, MN:  -20 degrees
Superior, WI:  -9 degrees
Phillips, WI:  -18 degrees
Cook, MN:  -27 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  -25 degrees
Finland, MN:  -20 degrees
Butternut, WI:  -24 degrees
Upson, WI:  -31 degrees
Gordon, WI:  -21 degrees
Winter, WI:  -24 degrees

Snowfall update for Duluth, Minnesota

December 1st-January 19th:

Total snowfall:  9.2" versus 29.8" during this period last year.
Average:  30.4"
Departure from average:  -21.2"

Seasonal snowfall for the winter of 2011-12...Ending on January 19th

Total snowfall:  12.9" versus 65.4" during this period last year.
Average:  46.5"
Departure from average:  -33.6"

Weather History:

On this date in 1996:  A record low temperature of -35 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High pressure ridge of 1024mb stretched from the Montana-North Dakota border to Eastern Wisconsin with low pressure of 1004mb located in Southern Oklahoma.  An overrunning snow event hit parts of Southern Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin and Illinois Today with several inches of fluffy snow reported.  Our area stayed dry Today with partly to mostly sunny skies.  Below average temperatures continued Today with highs in the single digits to low teens.  Winds were from the west or southwest at around 5 to 10 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis indicates a W-NW 500mb flow across the Upper Midwest with a weather system heading E-NE out of the Southern Plains.  A tight thermal gradient was in place across the Central U.S. with late Afternoon 850mb temperatures ranging from -10 degrees C at Chicago, Illinois to +4 degrees C at St. Louis, Missouri.  Colder air continued across the Upper Midwest where 850mb temperatures ranged from -14 to -18 degrees C while very warm winter temperatures covered the Central-Southern U.S. with +10 to +20 degree C 850mb temps and surface temps in the 70s and 80s from Southern Oklahoma and Southern Arkansas, through Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 20th)

High pressure will cover the Upper Midwest.  Clear to partly cloudy skies are forecasted along with light winds which will result in another night of frigid temperatures.  Lows will be in the single digits, teens and 20s below zero in the Northland with some communities possibly reaching 30 below! Winds will remain out of the west or south at 10 mph or less.

Saturday and Saturday Night (January 21st)

High pressure heads off to the east while low pressure approaches the Western High Plains and Northern Plains.  Southerly winds will develop during this period with a developing low level jet of 40-60 knots aimed at the Upper Midwest for Saturday Night.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecasted Tomorrow with highs in the single digits and teens.  There might be some flurries or snow showers in far Northern Minnesota, and also along the North Shore of Lake Superior, but little if any accumulation is expected during the day.  A better chance for snow will appear Saturday Night, mainly affecting Northcentral Minnesota...Including the cities of International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Cass Lake and Walker, up to 1" of snow could accumulate Saturday Night in these areas.  Some lake effect snow showers could affect the North Shore of Lake Superior from Two Harbors to Grand Marais.  The rest of our area will have a lesser chance for light snow/flurries Saturday Night.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tomorrow Night with temperatures holding steady in the single digits and teens.  Winds during this period will be from the south or southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast (January 22nd-24th)

A complex weather pattern will occur from Sunday into Monday and the computer models are at odds as to how everything will setup.  One area of low pressure will pass northwest-north of our area for Sunday and Monday while another low heads northeast out of the Central Plains.  Some of the computer models phase the lows and form a negatively tilted trough over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes while some other models don't phase the lows until they reach Eastern Canada either Monday Night or Tuesday.  The latter solution would result in less precipitation/snowfall for the Northland while the more phased solution could lead to a more significant precip/snow event for portions of the Northland.  Note:  It'll probably take until Saturday Night for the models to come into agreement.

A chance for snow will exist on Sunday and Sunday Night in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  There might even be some some freezing drizzle/freezing rain on Sunday in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Light snow and flurries could linger into Monday depending on the timing and evolution of this storm system, in fact the snow could be heavier in Northwest Wisconsin and possibly Eastern Minnesota and the Arrowhead if this system wraps up to our southeast.

Dry weather will return on Tuesday.

High temperatures from Sunday through Tuesday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Sunday Night in the single digits and teens.  Lows Monday Night will be in the single digits below to around 10 above zero.

Long Range Forecast (January 25th-31st)

A few weak systems could affect the area during this period with some light snow or flurries at times but no major storms are expected at this time.  Quite a difference between the 12z EURO and 12z GFS model by next weekend...The EURO has arctic air in Western Canada pushing back toward the Pacific Northwest which would setup a SW flow and possibly a storm emerging from the Rockies.  The GFS is completely opposite with basically a continuation of a west or west-northwest upper level flow.

Preliminary snowfall predictions for Sunday and Monday, January 22nd-23rd:

Looks like a general 1-2" snowfall for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, but there could be some exceptions.  Northern Minnesota including the North Shore of Lake Superior could get 2-4" of snow, this would be north of Highway 2.  Slightly heavier snowfall amounts could also occur in portions of Northwest Wisconsin. 

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Very cold.  Mostly clear.  Low 12 below to 17 below.  Wind west at 10 mph or less.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 10 to 15.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of snow 20%.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow possible.  High 22 to 27.  Chance of snow 40%.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow possible.  Low 10 to 15.  Chance of snow 40%.

.Monday...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  High 20 to 25.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 0 to 5.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 17 to 22.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  19
Low:    1

Sunrise Saturday:  7:45 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   4:55 PM CST

Tim







Thursday, January 19, 2012

Stays cold Tonight and Friday. Warms up this weekend!

Issued at 8:19 PM CST, Thursday, January 19th, 2012

  • Another frigid night but with less wind compared to last night
  • Cold temperatures continue on Friday with a snow system passing south of our area
  • Moderating temperatures this weekend with some snow possible by Sunday

Low temperature report for Thursday, January 19th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  -18 degrees
International Falls, MN:  -25 degrees
Brainerd, MN:  -20 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  -20 degrees
Hayward, WI:  -16 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN:  -11 degrees
Two Harbors, MN:  -18 degrees
Silver Bay, MN:  -18 degrees
Grand Marais, MN:  -22 degrees
Ely, MN:  -22 degrees
Orr, MN:  -26 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  -26 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  -24 degrees
Cook, MN:  -24 degrees
Longville, MN:  -22 degrees
Pine River, MN:  -22 degrees
Aitkin, MN:  -18 degrees
Superior, WI:  -15 degrees
Siren, WI:  -15 degrees
Bruno, MN:  -19 degrees
3 miles east of Wright, MN:  -20 degrees
Cass Lake, MN:  -23 degrees
Northome, MN:  -23 degrees
Babbitt, MN:  -26 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  -24 degrees
Floodwood, MN:  -21 degrees
Kabetogama, MN:  -25 degrees
Butternut, WI:  -17 degrees
Upson, WI:  -23 degrees
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  -18 degrees

Snowfall report from Wednesday and Thursday, January 18th-19th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Hurley, WI (Iron County)  4.0"
Cornucopia, WI (Bayfield County)  3.0"
Gile, WI (Iron County)  2.5"
Herbster, WI (Bayfield County)  2.0"
5 miles southwest of Bruno, MN (Pine County)  2.0"
8 miles south of Hayward, WI (Sawyer County)  1.5"
4 miles west of Washburn, WI (Bayfield County)  1.5"
3 miles north of Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County)  1.2"
3 miles west of Phillips, WI (Price County)  1.0"
Danbury, WI (Burnett County)  1.0"
Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  0.7"

Wind Chill Report for Thursday, January 19th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Hibbing, MN:  -45 degrees
Two Harbors, MN:  -44 degrees
Brainerd, MN:  -41 degrees
International Falls, MN:  -40 degrees
Duluth, MN:  -41 degrees
Grand Marais, MN:  -53 degrees
Isabella, MN:  -50 degrees
Littlefork, MN:  -45 degrees
Grand Rapids, MN:  -40 degrees
Cloquet, MN:  -40 degrees
Grand Portage, MN:  -51 degrees
2 miles south-southwest of Proctor, MN:  -42 degrees
1 mile west-northwest of Kabetogama, MN:  -50 degrees

February 2012 Climate Outlook for Duluth, Minnesota
Source:  Climate Prediction Center

33% chance of above normal temperatures.  Equal chances for above, below or normal precipitation.

February-April 2012 Climate Outlook for Duluth, Minnesota
Source:  Climate Prediction Center

Equal chance of above, below or normal temperatures.  33% chance for above normal precipitation.

Weather History:

On this date in 1994:  A record low temperature of -34 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather Tidbits:

*6 days so far this month with a low temperature of 0 degrees or colder at Duluth, Minnesota.

*9 days so far this winter with a low temperature of 0 degrees or colder at Duluth, Minnesota compared to 21 days during the same period last year.

*Temperature on January 18th, 2012 dropped below zero for the first time this winter in the Twin Cities which ties with 1889 and 2002 for the latest below zero temperature recorded at the Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport.  (NWS Chanhassen, MN)

Note:  Katabatic winds developed late Wednesday Night in Grand Marais, Minnesota with a peak wind gust of 59 mph!  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katabatic_wind

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A blast of arctic air kept high temperatures in the single digits below to single digits above zero across our area Today with sunny to partly cloudy skies.  Winds were out of the west or northwest at under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

West-northwest 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest with a powerful jet stream of 130-160 knots stretching northwest-southeast from Southern Saskatchewan Province thru Minnesota down to Western Virginia per RUC model analysis.  Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level trough moving E-SE across the Pacific Northwest with a plume of moisture extending from California thru the Rockies.  850mb temperatures as of 8pm ranged from -24 degrees C in far Northern Minnesota to -14 degrees C in far Southwest Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 19th)

High pressure will be in control of our weather resulting in clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds of 10 mph or less.  Lows will be in the single digits, teens and 20s below zero.

Friday and Friday Night (January 20th)

High pressure will move off to our east with another area of high pressure building into the Northern Plains on Friday before it shifts into the Upper Midwest for Friday Night.  An overrunning snow event will hit the Southern half of Minnesota on Friday with several inches of accumulation likely.  The northern fringe of this shield of snow could affect Southern parts of our area on Friday with some light snow and flurries along and south of a line from Brainerd to Hinckley to Minong to Park Falls, snowfall accumulations of a dusting up to 1.0" is possible for those areas.  Highs on Friday will be in the single digits below to low teens above zero with lows Friday Night in the single digits, teens and 20s below.  Northeast or west winds are forecasted Tomorrow with northwest or south winds Tomorrow Night, wind speeds will range from 5 to 15 mph.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tomorrow with mostly clear skies for Friday Night.

Extended Forecast (January 21st-23rd)

Looks dry on Saturday with high temperatures in the single digits and teens.  High pressure will pull off to our east on Saturday with southerly winds commencing on the backside of this high.  Low pressure will pass by to our northwest-north from Sunday into Monday while another area of low pressure tracks from the Central Plains to the Eastern Great Lakes during the Sunday-Monday time frame.  Computer models are having some difficulty with how this system will evolve for late this weekend/early next week.  It does look like most of our area will see some light snow for Sunday with lingering flurries on Monday.  Right now this doesn't look to be a huge snow producer, however, should this system trend slower and stronger and track slightly more to the west, than heavier snowfall amounts could occur in parts of the Northland for Sunday and Monday.  High temperatures on Sunday and Monday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Sunday Night mainly in the teens.

Long Range Forecast (January 24th-30th)

No big storms are expected during this period, but we could see some weak systems with a bit of snow every now and then.  Arctic air should stay well to our northwest with chilly, but no real extreme cold expected for our area.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear and very cold.  Low 13 below to 18 below.  Wind west around 12 mph.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 5 to 10.  Wind west around 12 mph.

.Friday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 7 below to 12 below.  Wind west around 10 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 10 to 15.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow possible.  High 23 to 28.  Chance of snow 40%.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible.  Low 10 to 15.  Chance of snow 30%.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  19
Low:    1

Sunrise Friday:  7:46 AM CST
Sunset Friday:   4:53 PM CST

Tim

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Harsh winter weather conditions Tonight and Thursday. Cover exposed skin if you head outdoors. Headline info. can be found on the previous blog post from earlier Today.

Issued at 8:15 PM CST, Wednesday, January 18th, 2012

  • Bitterly cold temperatures with dangerous wind chills Tonight and Thursday
  • Lake effect snow with several inches of accumulation thru Thursday for Iron CO Wisconsin
  • Friday's snow system trends south with the latest model guidance
  • 2 possible snow events for late this weekend and the middle of next week

Low temperature report for Wednesday, January 18th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  -8 degrees
International Falls, MN:  -13 degrees
Brainerd, MN:  -11 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  -15 degrees
Hayward, WI:  -14 degrees
Silver Bay, MN:  -11 degrees
Orr, MN:  -15 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  -13 degrees
Eveleth, MN:  -13 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  -15 degrees
Cook, MN:  -17 degrees
Longville, MN:  -15 degrees
Pine River, MN:  -15 degrees
Superior, WI:  -8 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN:  -2 degrees
Phillips, WI:  -13 degrees
3 miles east of Wright, MN:  -14 degrees
Northome, MN:  -14 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  -18 degrees
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  -14 degrees
Butternut, WI:  -16 degrees
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  -18 degrees
Gordon, WI:  -13 degrees

Note:  At 12pm CT Today it was -29 degrees at Edmonton, Alberta Canada.  -28 degrees at Calgary.  -30 degrees at Saskatoon.  -25 degrees at Winnipeg.  -19 degrees at Thunder Bay.  And -28 degrees at Regina.  This is the airmass that will invade Minnesota during the next 24 hours.

Weather History:

On this date in 1994:  A record low temperature of -34 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
On this date in 1996:  8.6" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1004mb has moved into Westcentral Lake Superior as of 8pm.  An arctic front continued to push southeast and as of mid-Evening this boundary extended from Southeast Minnesota to Northern Wisconsin.  A band of snow which lasts about an hour or so has been pushing east across our area during the Afternoon and Evening with new snowfall accumulations ranging from one half inch up to 2.0".  Herbster, WI:  2.0".  Near Bruno, MN:  2.0".  Near Pillager, MN:  1.0".  Once the snow stops, the northwest wind picks up and temperatures drop! Note:  It was 14 degrees at Duluth, MN (6pm) which dropped to 1 degree (8pm) High temperatures Today were in the teens and 20s with single digits below and single digits above zero in far Northern Minnesota.  Winds Today were out of the south, east or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A vigorous, but moisture starved storm system was moving east through the Upper Midwest, Western Ontario Province and Lake Superior per water vapor satellite imagery.  110 knot mid level jet was located in the Central Dakotas This Evening with a powerhouse 160-180 knot upper level jet stretching from Central Montana to Northern Nebraska per RUC model analysis.  Arctic air was pouring into Minnesota This Evening with 850mb temperatures as of 8pm ranging from -28 degrees C in Northwest Minnesota to -10 degrees C in Southeast Minnesota.

Tonight (January 18th)

Low pressure will deepen to around 997mb as it reaches Eastern Lake Superior by dawn.  An arctic front will clear Northwest Wisconsin before Midnight.  Snow associated with this front will taper off from west to east in Northwest Wisconsin between 10pm-Midnight.  About an inch of snow will fall in Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with isolated 2" amounts possible.  A few flurries could linger until around Midnight in Northern-Eastern Minnesota.  Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy Tonight with frigid low temperatures in the teens and 20s below zero.  Northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with occasional higher gusts will produce wind chills from 25 below to 45 below zero.  Areas of blowing and drifting snow will also continue for most of the night.  Note:  Heavier lake effect snow showers will occur thru Thursday Morning, mainly in Iron County in Northwest Wisconsin...Snowfall accumulations of 3-6" are possible in Gile, Upson, Hurley and Montreal.

Thursday and Thursday Night (January 19th)

Arctic airmass will tighten it's grip on the Northland with high pressure building into the Upper Midwest.  Partly cloudy skies are forecasted during this period with highs on Thursday ranging from zero to around 10 below with lows Thursday Night in the single digits, teens and 20s below zero.  West or northwest winds are expected during this period at 10 to 15 mph.  Wind chills of 20 to 45 below will likely persist into Thursday Morning.

Extended Forecast (January 20th-22nd)

Low pressure will pass well to our south from Friday into early Saturday.  Snow associated with this system is expected to stay south of our area, but some flurries or a little light snow could affect portions of Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin during the day Friday.  It looks mainly dry Friday Night into Saturday Night, then on Sunday low pressure approaches from the west which should result in some snow breaking out in our area with some accumulations looking likely per recent model trends.  High temperatures on Friday will be in the single digits below to low teens above zero.  Lows Friday Night will be in the single digits, teens and 20s below zero.  Highs on Saturday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Saturday Night mainly in the single digits.  Highs on Sunday will be in the teens and 20s.

Long Range Forecast (January 23rd-29th)

Low pressure exits to our east on Monday with some lingering light snow or flurries possible in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  We get a break on Tuesday, then another system could bring some additional snow to parts of our area for the middle of next week with maybe a third system for late next week/next weekend? Looks like the arctic air will retreat back into Western-Northern Canada during this period so we shouldn't have to deal with any bitter cold outbreaks as we close out the month of January.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Bitterly cold.  Breezy with areas of blowing snow.  Flurries before Midnight.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 12 below to 17 below.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.  Wind chills of 25 below to 35 below.

.Thursday...  Frigid.  Mostly sunny.  High 1 below to 6 below.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.  Wind chills of 25 below to 35 below during the Morning.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 10 below to 15 below.  Wind west at 5 to 10 mph.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 5 to 10.

.Friday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 7 below to 12 below.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 10 to 15.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow possible.  High 23 to 28.  Chance of snow 40%.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  19
Low:    1

Sunrise Thursday:  7:47 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   4:52 PM CST

Tim