Wintry mix of precip in parts of the Northland Tonight. Very warm temps/record highs in the Plains Today. Major model differences showing up this weekend.

Issued at 4:05 PM CST, Monday, January 30th, 2012

• A wintry mix of precipitation Tonight and Tuesday for Northern Minnesota
• Above average temperatures will continue for the next several days
• Generally dry after Tuesday

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A winter weather advisory is in effect from 9pm CST This Evening until 12pm CST Tuesday for the following Counties in Northern Minnesota:  Koochiching...Northern Itasca...Central and Northern St. Louis...Northern Lake...and Northern Cook.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  International Falls...Bigfork...Togo...Hibbing...Virginia...Crane Lake...Orr...Ely...Isabella...and Forest Center.

Discussion:  A mixture of sleet, freezing rain and snow will affect Northern Minnesota from mid-Evening through early Tuesday Afternoon.  Snow accumulations of 1-2" are possible by Tuesday.  Ice accumulations will be under 0.10".  Roads will become slippery due to the freezing rain and snow.

A winter weather advisory for mixed precipitation means a mixture of freezing rain, sleet and snow is expected.  Some accumulations of snow and ice are expected on untreated roads and sidewalks.  Anyone with travel plans should be prepared for slippery roads and reduced visibility.  Slow down when driving and allow extra stopping distance because you may loose control of your vehicle if you try to slow down or stop quickly.

Weather Advisory outline area per HAMweather



Weather Tidbits:

*50 below at Fairbanks, Alaksa this past weekend.  1st time reaching -50 degrees in 6 years.  (Updraft MPR)

*Today marks the 9th time this winter with a high temperature of 50+ degrees at Chicago, Illinois.  5 is the average for high temperatures to reach the 50s thru January 30th, dating back to 1928.  (Tom Skilling)

*48.5% of the Upper Midwest is covered by snow Today which is down from 90.9% at this time last week.  Last year at this time, 86.5% of the Upper Midwest was covered by snow.  (NOHRSC)

Very warm temperatures Today in Southwestern Minnesota

Below is a listing of temperatures from 2pm, January 30th, 2012

Montevideo, MN:  55 degrees
Madison, MN:  54 degrees
Olivia, MN:  54 degrees
Marshall, MN:  54 degrees
Redwood Falls, MN:  50 degrees

Numerous record high temperatures Today in the Central and Northern Plains
Source:  coolwx.com



Note:  Here are just a few of the record highs from January 30th, 2012.

Omaha, Nebraska:  66 degrees.  Previous record high:  57 degrees set in 1988.
Lincoln, Nebraska:  69 degrees.  Previous record high:  59 degrees set in 1992.
Des Moines, Iowa:  64 degrees.  Previous record high:  57 degrees set in 1988.
Williston, North Dakota:  50 degrees.  Previous record high:  46 degrees set in 1992.
Minot, North Dakota:  46 degrees.  Previous record high:  44 degrees set in 1992.

Weather History:

On this date in 1994:  A record low temperature of -35 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A warm front was centered basically along the I94 corridor in Central Minnesota This Afternoon.  Unseasonably warm temperatures were found south of this boundary Today with 40s and 50s in Southern Minnesota with 60s and even some 70s from Southern South Dakot and Central Iowa and points south from there.  Our area was north of the warm front Today and as a result temperatures were much cooler with 20s and low 30s covering the Northland which is still about 5 degrees or so above the average for late January.  A band of light snow passed through the area late last night/This Morning with accumulations anywhere from a few tenths of an inch to as much as 1.5".  Winds Today were from the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Westerly 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest with a disturbance heading east through the Northern Plains per water vapor satellite imagery.  Incredibly warm 850mb temperatures covered the region late This Afternoon.  +10 degrees C in far Southwest Minnesota to +2 to +4 degrees C in Northcentral and Eastern Minnesota with 0 to -6 degree C H85 temps in the Arrowhead of Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 30th)

Low pressure will move from Northern North Dakota to Northern Minnesota by dawn.  A wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain will affect locations along and north of Highway 2 Tonight with some patchy fog and light freezing drizzle possible in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Lows Tonight will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees with south or east winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Note:  Map below represents the 850mb temperatures valid at 9pm Tonight per RUC model:  Almost all of the Northland is in the +2 to +6 degree C range at 5,000 feet (850mb)  A warm layer aloft combined with below freezing temperatures at the surface will result in some freezing rain and sleet in Northern Minnesota Tonight.



Tuesday and Tuesday Night (January 31st)

Low pressure will exit to our east Tomorrow while a potent disturbance drops SE through our area.  A mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain will continue Tomorrow Morning along and north of Highway 2 with a transition to some snow showers taking place during the Afternoon.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 30s but a few 40s are possible in Northwest Wisconsin.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 20s.  South or east winds will become west at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast (February 1st-3rd)

High temperatures from Wednesday through Friday will reach the 30s in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night in the teens and 20s.  Looks generally dry from mid to late week.

Long Range Forecast (February 4th-10th)

Computer models are struggling this weekend.  A few of them show a storm affecting the Upper Midwest as low pressure heads northeast out of the Plains.  Other models keep any such storm well to our south.  The 500mb pattern is forecasted to become very amplified/blocky by this weekend which could then carry over into next week, result from this will likely be big fluctuations in the computer models during the next couple days.

12z EUROPEAN forecast for Saturday Morning, February 4th, 2012



12z GEM-global forecast for Saturday Morning, February 4th, 2012



5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Light freezing rain, sleet or snow possible at times after 8pm.  Low 21 to 26.  Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of precipitation 40%.

.Tuesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog and light freezing drizzle possible during the Morning.  Scattered snow showers or flurries possible through the day.  High 33 to 38.  Wind becoming west at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of precipitation 30%.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  20
Low:    2

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:35 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   5:10 PM CST

Tim