Issued at 8:29 PM CST, Wednesday, January 25th, 2012
- Warmer than average temperatures continue into Friday
- A little bit of snow, light freezing drizzle or fog possible Tonight
- Turns colder this weekend before it warms up again for next week
Weather Tidbits:
*Thru January 24th, 2012 there have been 59 tornadoes reported in the U.S. Only 4 other January's have had more than 50 tornadoes. 1999; 218. 2008; 88. 1975; 54. 1997; 50. (TWC)
*51 severe weather and 7 tornado reports across Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi on January 24th-25th, 2012. (SPC)
Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Low pressure of 994mb was centered in Western Manitoba Province This Evening with a warm southerly flow occurring in the Upper Midwest ahead of this low. Highs Today were in the upper 20s to middle 30s which is 10 to around 15 degrees above normal for late January. Winds Today were out of the south at 5 to around 20 mph. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies covered our area with some patchy fog, haze, flurries and light freezing drizzle.
Today's Upper Level Analysis:
W/SW 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest while a potent disturbance to our northwest and 60-90 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls spread into our area from the Northern Plains. Upper level low was over Texas This Evening per water vapor satellite imagery with some much needed rain continuing to fall in portions of the Southern Plains. A powerful jet of 130-160 knots was aimed at the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies per RUC model analysis. 850mb temperatures as of 8pm ranged from +2 degrees C in Western and Southern Minnesota to zero to -2 degrees C in Northern and Eastern Minnesota.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (January 25th)
Low pressure will be centered to our northwest while a cold front moves east out of the Dakotas. Mostly cloudy skies will occur Tonight with areas of fog and light freezing drizzle along with some passing snow showers and flurries. Only minor accumulations of a half inch or less of snow are forecasted Tonight with little if any ice accumulations, but it only takes a small amount of ice to cause some travel issues. Lows Tonight will be in the teens and 20s with south or west winds from 5 to around 20 mph.
Thursday and Thursday Night (January 26th)
Low pressure will be centered to our north while a cold front pushes off to our south/east. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected during this period with some flurries or snow showers possible on Thursday. Could even be some lingering fog or light freezing drizzle early in the day. Temperatures will stay mild with highs on Thursday in the 20s and 30s with lows Thursday Night in the teens and 20s. Winds during this period will be from the west, northwest or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Extended Forecast (January 27th-29th)
Low pressure passes west-south of the area on Friday...This system could go on to produce a minor 1-2" snowfall event in Southern Minnesota on Friday with some flurries/snow showers possible farther north. Upper level trough digs into the Upper Midwest this weekend which could lead to some additional flurries and snow showers, but no major accumulations are expected at this time. Highs on Friday will be in the 20s and 30s with high temperatures for Saturday in the teens and 20s. Coldest day looks to be on Sunday when highs will be in the single digits and teens. Low temperatures Friday Night will be in the teens. Lows Saturday Night will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero.
Note: 700mb map valid for 12pm CST Friday, Jan. 27th, 2012. This map depicts areas of lift which could help to produce a brief period of snow from early-mid Friday Afternoon. Note the yellow and orange colors in NE Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, decent lift! NAM forecast (unisys)
Long Range Forecast (January 30th-February 5th)
Could be dealing with some weak systems during this forecast period, but none of them look very strong and they shouldn't produce much in the way of snow for our area. One system could affect the region around Monday (30th) of next week with a 2nd-3rd system possible toward the middle and end of next week. No arctic airmasses during the last 2 days of January and thru the first 5 days of February.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight... Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog and light freezing drizzle with a few snow showers or flurries also possible. Low 23 to 28. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.
.Thursday... Partly to mostly sunny. Patchy fog, light freezing drizzle of flurries possible during the Morning. High 31 to 36. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.
.Thursday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 13 to 18. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Friday... Mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible. High 27 to 32. Chance of snow 30%.
.Friday Night... Variable cloudiness. Flurries possible. Low 10 to 15.
.Saturday... Flurries possible. Partly sunny. High 18 to 23.
.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 2 below to 3 above.
.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 10 to 15.
Normal temperatures for Tomorrow
High: 19
Low: 1
Sunrise Thursday: 7:40 AM CST
Sunset Thursday: 5:02 PM CST
Tim
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