Snow arrives late Tonight...Ends before Noon Monday. 1-3" accumulations, highest totals along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Issued at 5:03 PM CST, Sunday, January 29th, 2012

• A cold Evening, then rising temperatures Overnight
• Snow Overnight thru midday Monday, some accumulation likely
• Another system Monday Night-Tuesday takes the northern route
• Temperatures will be above average most of this week

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A chilly day with highs in the teens which is near to slightly below average for late January.  Sunshine was abundant throughout the area with light winds under 10 mph.  A strong warm front was heading east through the Dakotas Today with a big range in temperatures.  26 degrees at Bismarck, North Dakota to 51 degrees at Dickinson, North Dakota (5pm)

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest with strong warm and moist advection heading east out of the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains.  PWS late This Afternoon ranged from 0.10-0.30" in Minnesota to a half inch in the Central-Western Dakotas.  850mb temperatures as of 4pm ranged from -14 degrees C in Northern Minnesota to +10 degrees C in Southwest North Dakota and Western South Dakota per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 29th)

Temperatures will drop This Evening under mostly clear skies and nearly calm winds.  Expect temperatures through Midnight to bottom out in the single digits below to single digits above zero with some teens below possible in far Northeast Minnesota.  Temperatures will rise after Midnight and should be in the single digits and teens by dawn as clouds increase while warm air advection spreads into the area.

Snow will develop between 9pm-Midnight from the Brainerd Lakes, Bigfork to International Falls area.  Snow will spread east after Midnight and should reach the I35 corridor, Twin Ports and Iron Range after 2am.

Expect southeast winds to develop during the night at 5 to 15 mph.

Monday and Monday Night (January 30th)

A warm front will reach Central Minnesota and Northcentral Wisconsin during this period with low pressure tracking east through North Dakota Monday Night.  Light snow and flurries will end from west to east on Monday.  Skies will be mostly cloudy Tomorrow with highs in the 20s to lower 30s.  Mostly cloudy skies should continue for Monday Night with light snow or a wintry mix of precipitation developing in Northern Minnesota while areas farther south have a risk for some patchy light freezing drizzle and fog.  Lows Monday Night will be in the 20s.  Winds during this period will be out of the south or east at 10 to 15 mph.

Note:  Snowfall accumulations Tonight and Monday will generally be around an inch in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with 2-3" possible along the North Shore of Lake Superior, northeast of Duluth.

HPC's 1" or greater snowfall threat map for Tonight and Monday:



Extended Forecast (January 31st-February 2nd)

Low pressure will track east across Northern Minnesota on Tuesday.  Light snow or a mixture of precipitation is expected to affect Northern and Northeast Minnesota on Tuesday with patchy light drizzle, freezing drizzle and fog possible in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 30s.  This low exits to our east Tuesday Night with some possible flurries lingering in our area.  Lows will be in the teens and 20s.  A few flurries can't be ruled out for Wednesday and Thursday, but nothing significant is expected at this time.  Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Wednesday Night in the teens and 20s.

High probs. for at least 0.01" of ICE accumulation in the Northland Monday Night-Tuesday (HPC)



Note:  Snowfall accumulations of 1-2" are possible on Tuesday, mainly north of a Bigfork to Silver Bay, Minnesota line.

Long Range Forecast (February 3rd-9th)

Overall the weather pattern is a dry one for our neck of the woods with a N/NW 500mb flow developing across Central Canada, Great Lakes and Upper Midwest.  Biggest issue for our area will be the temperatures and the computer models seem to be trending toward a cooler regime during this period compared to what they have been showing in previous days.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear This Evening.  Increasing cloudiness Overnight.  Light snow and flurries developing between 1-3am.  Low 3 to 8 with temperatures rising into the teens by dawn.  Light wind, becoming east to southeast around 10 mph Overnight.  Chance of snow 70%.

.Monday...  Light snow and flurries during the Morning.  Total accumulations around 1".  Mostly cloudy with patchy light freezing drizzle or fog possible.  High 25 to 30.  Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of snow 70% during the Morning.

.Monday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog and light freezing drizzle.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog and light freezing drizzle.  High 30 to 35.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  20
Low:    2

Sunrise Monday:  7:36 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   5:08 PM CST

Tim