MEGA snow totals east of the Twin Ports.

Issued at 3:55 PM CST, Friday, January 13th, 2012

• Weekend warmup on the way
• Weak clipper system could drop a dusting-1" of fluffy snow on Saturday
• Major shot of arctic air possible the middle of next week

Updated Lake Effect Snowfall Totals for the South Shore of Lake Superior
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Gile, WI (Iron County)  34.0"
Saxon, WI (Iron County)  20.0"
Hurley, WI (Iron County)  19.0"
Montreal, WI (Iron County)  16.0"
Upson, WI (Iron County)  15.5"
2 miles north of Mellen, WI (Ashland County)  13.0"

Weather Tidbits:

*49% of the Upper Midwest is covered by snow as of January 13th.  This is up from 4% on January 8th.  (NOHRSC)

*2 consecutive days (January 12th-13th) with a below average temperature at Duluth, Minnesota.  1st time this has happened since December 8th-9th.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

The heavy lake effect snow which hit parts of Ashland and Iron Counties Wisconsin during the past 24 hours was starting to subside This Afternoon, but some scattered snow showers continued from Douglas County, east to Iron County.  The rest of our area was generally dry Today under partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies.  Highs were in the single digits and teens with variable winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a NW 500mb flow across the Upper Midwest with a couple of disturbances dropping SE out of Saskatchewan and Ontario Province.  850mb temperatures as of 3pm ranged from -16 degrees C in Northeast Minnesota to -8 degrees C in extreme Southwest Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 13th)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover our area.  Scattered snow showers and flurries will end before Midnight along the South Shore of Lake Superior with an additional 1-2" of accumulation is possible.  Some light snow and flurries should spread into Western parts of our area Overnight with a dusting to 1/2" of accumulation possible from the Brainerd Lakes to Cass Lake to International Falls.  Lows Tonight will be in the single digits below to low teens above zero with some teens below possible in the Arrowhead.  Light and variable winds will become south-southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night (January 14th)

Weak area of low pressure will head into the Upper Midwest which will lead to some light snow and flurries with accumulations generally ranging from a dusting to around 1" at most...The exception to this might be along the North Shore of Lake Superior where a period of lake effect/enhanced snowfall could occur with 1-3" of accumulations in Lake and Cook Counties.  Highs on Saturday will be in the teens and 20s along with mostly cloudy skies.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the single digits and teens with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Winds during this period will be out of the south or west at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast (January 15th-17th)

One area of low pressure will move through Ontario Province from Sunday into Monday while another low heads E-NE out of the Central Plains to east of Chicago, Illinois during the Monday-Tuesday time period.  Flurries or light snow showers are possible at times from Sunday through Tuesday, but no significant accumulations are expected at this time.  High temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Sunday Night in the teens and 20s.  Highs on Monday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Monday Night in the single digits and teens below zero in Northern Minnesota to low teens above zero in Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs on Tuesday will range from zero to around 10 above.

Long Range Forecast (January 18th-24th)

A dose of arctic air is forecasted to seep into the Northland next Wednesday and Thursday.  850mb temperatures per GFS model are as low as -25 to -30 degrees C during the middle of next week which could result in daytime highs struggling to get out of the single digits below zero in parts of our area.  After the middle of next week it appears that the core of the arctic air will settle into Westcentral Canada and Pacific Northwest while a strong near zonal flow develops across the U.S...  We should be done with the arctic air after the middle of next week as long as the jet does not buckle at all.  Should the jet amplify a bit, then we would be vulnerable to get more bouts of arctic air since it will not be too far away from the Upper Midwest.  Looks like the pattern will become more active in the Northwest/Western U.S. for the rest of January.  Several lows should come out into the Plains during the long range period and any one of those lows if they track far enough north could bring some measurable snow or possibly even some mixed precipitation to our area.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 3 to 8.  Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Saturday...  Snow showers or flurries possible.  Snow accumulations less than 1".  Considerable cloudiness.  High 17 to 22.  Wind south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of snow 40%.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Monday...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  High 20 to 25.

.Monday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low zero to 5 above.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 5 to 10.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  19
Low:    1

Sunrise Saturday:  7:50 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   4:45 PM CST

Tim