96% of Minnesota now under a moderate drought! Some snow for Friday.

Issued at 8:24 PM CST, Thursday, January 26th, 2012

• Quiet weather Tonight
• Snow with a couple inches of accumulation for some areas on Friday
• Colder this weekend with some possible flurries or snow showers

Weather Tidbits:

*Thru January 25th, 2012 there have been 70 reported tornadoes in the U.S. This is the 3rd highest during the month of January since 1950.  (TWC)

*Today marks the 10th time this month with a high temperature of at least 32 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

Latest Drought Monitor for Minnesota as of January 24th, 2012.  (CPC)

Note:  Moderate drought conditions now cover 96% of Minnesota which is up from 57% last week.



Weather History:

On this date in 2004:  18.2" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Another mild day with highs in the upper 20s to middle 30s.  Overcast skies persisted all day long in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin while skies turned sunnier during the mid-late Afternoon hours in Western parts of our area.  Areas of haze, fog, light freezing drizzle and snow showers also occurred in parts of our area Today.  Winds were from the southwest or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Narrow north-south 500mb trough axis from Minnesota to Missouri was heading off to the east per water vapor satellite imagery with a W/NW upper level flow covering the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  Widespread 60-150 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls were in place across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Southern U.S. while an upper level trough over the Northwest U.S. and Northern Rockies has 60-90 meter 12 hour H5 height falls with it.  850mb temperatures as of 8pm ranged from +2 to +6 degrees C in Southwest North Dakota and Western South Dakota to -6 to -8 degrees C in Northern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 26th)

Low pressure will be centered well to our east while another system heads into the Northern Plains.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with lows in the teens and 20s, but a few locales could slip into the single digits.  Winds will be from the northwest or southwest at 5 to around 20 mph.

Friday and Friday Night (January 27th)

Low pressure will pass just south of our area on Friday before it exits to our southeast by Friday Evening.  Snow will affect Northcentral-Eastcentral Minnesota on Friday with snow passing through Northwest Wisconsin from mid-late Afternoon Friday into Friday Evening. 

Snow will reach Bigfork, Cass Lake, Walker and Brainerd between 6-8am Friday with snow heading east, reaching the Twin Ports and I35 corridor between 11am-1pm.

Latest model data shows there could be a 1-2 hour window where there could be some moderate to even heavy snowfall on Friday, especially along and south of Highway 2.  Roads could become snow covered and slippery for Friday and Friday Evening.

Total snowfall accumulations should generally range from 1-2", but an isolated 3" total is not out of the question.  Again, the higher snow totals should remain along and south of Highway 2 the way it looks now.

High temperatures on Friday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Friday Night in the single digits and teens.  Winds Tomorrow will be out of the south, east or west.  Winds Tomorrow Night will be out of the west or northwest.  Wind speeds will vary between 10 to 20 mph.

Note:  700mb map per 00z NAM forecast for 12pm Friday.  Note the orange and red colors across parts of the Northland.  This shows where there will be strong lifting which could produce a period of moderate to even heavy snow on Friday.



Extended Forecast (January 28th-30th)

Cooler air moves into the Upper Midwest this weekend with highs on Saturday in the teens and 20s with highs on Sunday in the single digits and teens.  Lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero.  An upper level trough combine with a weak disturbance or two could lead to some flurries or light snow showers in our area on Saturday with dry weather expected on Sunday.  Milder air moves in on Monday which combined with a warm front could generate some light snow and flurries.  Highs on Monday will be in the 20s.

Long Range Forecast (January 31st-February 6th)

2 or 3 systems could affect the Northland during this period.  The first would be next Tuesday-early Wednesday.  With a 2nd and 3rd system possibly affecting the area late next week/next weekend.  None of these storms look big, but there could be a little bit of snow in our area if these systems materialize.  Arctic air will be kept well to our north during the beginning of February.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Low 13 to 18.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Clouding up during the Morning.  Snow developing between 11am-1pm with some snow lingering through the Afternoon.  High 27 to 32.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph becoming west late.  Chance of snow increasing to 80% by the Afternoon.

.Friday Night...  Light snow or flurries early.  Total snowfall accumulations of 1-2" possible.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of snow 60% early.

.Saturday...  Flurries possible.  Partly sunny.  High 18 to 23.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 2 below to 3 above.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 10 to 15.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low zero to 5.

.Monday...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries possible.  High 20 to 25.  Chance of snow 30%.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  20
Low:    2

Sunrise Friday:  7:39 AM CST
Sunset Friday:   5:04 PM CST

Tim