- Another cold night ahead
- Moderating temperatures this weekend which will carry over into next week
- Model differences linger for the Sunday-Monday system
Low temperature report for Friday, January 20th, 2012
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Duluth, MN: -12 degrees
International Falls, MN: -20 degrees
Brainerd, MN: -18 degrees
Hibbing, MN: -22 degrees
Hayward, WI: -21 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN: -6 degrees
Ely, MN: -24 degrees
Crane Lake, MN: -22 degrees
Eveleth, MN: -22 degrees
Pine River, MN: -20 degrees
Superior, WI: -9 degrees
Phillips, WI: -18 degrees
Cook, MN: -27 degrees
Embarrass, MN: -25 degrees
Finland, MN: -20 degrees
Butternut, WI: -24 degrees
Upson, WI: -31 degrees
Gordon, WI: -21 degrees
Winter, WI: -24 degrees
Snowfall update for Duluth, Minnesota
December 1st-January 19th:
Total snowfall: 9.2" versus 29.8" during this period last year.
Average: 30.4"
Departure from average: -21.2"
Seasonal snowfall for the winter of 2011-12...Ending on January 19th
Total snowfall: 12.9" versus 65.4" during this period last year.
Average: 46.5"
Departure from average: -33.6"
Weather History:
On this date in 1996: A record low temperature of -35 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
High pressure ridge of 1024mb stretched from the Montana-North Dakota border to Eastern Wisconsin with low pressure of 1004mb located in Southern Oklahoma. An overrunning snow event hit parts of Southern Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin and Illinois Today with several inches of fluffy snow reported. Our area stayed dry Today with partly to mostly sunny skies. Below average temperatures continued Today with highs in the single digits to low teens. Winds were from the west or southwest at around 5 to 10 mph.
Today's Upper Level Analysis:
Water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis indicates a W-NW 500mb flow across the Upper Midwest with a weather system heading E-NE out of the Southern Plains. A tight thermal gradient was in place across the Central U.S. with late Afternoon 850mb temperatures ranging from -10 degrees C at Chicago, Illinois to +4 degrees C at St. Louis, Missouri. Colder air continued across the Upper Midwest where 850mb temperatures ranged from -14 to -18 degrees C while very warm winter temperatures covered the Central-Southern U.S. with +10 to +20 degree C 850mb temps and surface temps in the 70s and 80s from Southern Oklahoma and Southern Arkansas, through Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (January 20th)
High pressure will cover the Upper Midwest. Clear to partly cloudy skies are forecasted along with light winds which will result in another night of frigid temperatures. Lows will be in the single digits, teens and 20s below zero in the Northland with some communities possibly reaching 30 below! Winds will remain out of the west or south at 10 mph or less.
Saturday and Saturday Night (January 21st)
High pressure heads off to the east while low pressure approaches the Western High Plains and Northern Plains. Southerly winds will develop during this period with a developing low level jet of 40-60 knots aimed at the Upper Midwest for Saturday Night. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecasted Tomorrow with highs in the single digits and teens. There might be some flurries or snow showers in far Northern Minnesota, and also along the North Shore of Lake Superior, but little if any accumulation is expected during the day. A better chance for snow will appear Saturday Night, mainly affecting Northcentral Minnesota...Including the cities of International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Cass Lake and Walker, up to 1" of snow could accumulate Saturday Night in these areas. Some lake effect snow showers could affect the North Shore of Lake Superior from Two Harbors to Grand Marais. The rest of our area will have a lesser chance for light snow/flurries Saturday Night. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tomorrow Night with temperatures holding steady in the single digits and teens. Winds during this period will be from the south or southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
Extended Forecast (January 22nd-24th)
A complex weather pattern will occur from Sunday into Monday and the computer models are at odds as to how everything will setup. One area of low pressure will pass northwest-north of our area for Sunday and Monday while another low heads northeast out of the Central Plains. Some of the computer models phase the lows and form a negatively tilted trough over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes while some other models don't phase the lows until they reach Eastern Canada either Monday Night or Tuesday. The latter solution would result in less precipitation/snowfall for the Northland while the more phased solution could lead to a more significant precip/snow event for portions of the Northland. Note: It'll probably take until Saturday Night for the models to come into agreement.
A chance for snow will exist on Sunday and Sunday Night in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. There might even be some some freezing drizzle/freezing rain on Sunday in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Light snow and flurries could linger into Monday depending on the timing and evolution of this storm system, in fact the snow could be heavier in Northwest Wisconsin and possibly Eastern Minnesota and the Arrowhead if this system wraps up to our southeast.
Dry weather will return on Tuesday.
High temperatures from Sunday through Tuesday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Sunday Night in the single digits and teens. Lows Monday Night will be in the single digits below to around 10 above zero.
Long Range Forecast (January 25th-31st)
A few weak systems could affect the area during this period with some light snow or flurries at times but no major storms are expected at this time. Quite a difference between the 12z EURO and 12z GFS model by next weekend...The EURO has arctic air in Western Canada pushing back toward the Pacific Northwest which would setup a SW flow and possibly a storm emerging from the Rockies. The GFS is completely opposite with basically a continuation of a west or west-northwest upper level flow.
Preliminary snowfall predictions for Sunday and Monday, January 22nd-23rd:
Looks like a general 1-2" snowfall for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, but there could be some exceptions. Northern Minnesota including the North Shore of Lake Superior could get 2-4" of snow, this would be north of Highway 2. Slightly heavier snowfall amounts could also occur in portions of Northwest Wisconsin.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight... Very cold. Mostly clear. Low 12 below to 17 below. Wind west at 10 mph or less.
.Saturday... Partly sunny. High 10 to 15. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy. Light snow or flurries possible. Low 5 to 10. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 20%.
.Sunday... Mostly cloudy. Snow possible. High 22 to 27. Chance of snow 40%.
.Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy. Snow possible. Low 10 to 15. Chance of snow 40%.
.Monday... Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 20 to 25.
.Monday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 0 to 5.
.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 17 to 22.
Normal temperatures for Tomorrow
High: 19
Low: 1
Sunrise Saturday: 7:45 AM CST
Sunset Saturday: 4:55 PM CST
Tim
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