1-2" snowfall south/east of Duluth Tonight&Tuesday AM. Several inches of lake effect snow late Tonight-Tue for Ashland&Iron Counties Wisconsin.

Issued at 7:48 PM CST, Monday, January 16th, 2012

• Light snow for Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota Tonight and Tuesday AM
• Another weak snow event possible Wednesday-early Thursday
• Cold this week with the brunt of the arctic air hitting on Thursday

Duluth Minnesota Climate Summary for January 1st-15th, 2012:

Average monthly temperature:  21.5 degrees
Departure from normal:  +11.3 degrees

8 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 32 degrees
4 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 40 degrees

Total precipitation:  0.08"
Departure from normal:  -0.44"

Total snowfall:  1.0"
Departure from normal:  -9.1"

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Partly to mostly cloudy skies were common Today with above average temperatures.  Highs were in the 20s to lower 30s with north or west winds at 5 to around 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Southwest 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery with low pressure taking shape in the Central Plains.  Lots of warm air was found east of this system Today with early Evening 850mb temperatures of +4 to +14 degrees C from Northern Illinois to Texas while arctic air was starting to drop south/east out of Central and Western Canada where 850mb temperatures ranged from -20 to -30 degrees C per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 16th)

Low pressure will remain well to our south/east.  Light snow will develop Overnight in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with some flurries in Northcentral-Northeast Minnesota.  Lows Tonight will range from the single digits and teens below zero in Northern Minnesota to the teens above zero in Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 5 to around 20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (January 17th)

Light snow will likely persist into Tuesday in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota, but the snow will be ending from west to east by mid-Morning thru early Afternoon.  Some flurries are possible in Northeast Minnesota Tomorrow Morning.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the single digits below to low teens above zero with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero with some minus teens possible in Northern Minnesota.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecasted Tomorrow Night.  Winds will be out of the north or west at 5 to around 20 mph.  Total snowfall accumulations in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will generally be around 1" for Tonight and Tuesday Morning with isolated 2" totals possible in Northwest Wisconsin.

Note:  *Lake Effect Snow Advisory* is in effect from 12am CST Tonight until 6pm CST Tuesday for Ashland and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin.  Northerly winds coming off Lake Superior will cause lake effect snow showers from late Tonight through early Tuesday Evening.  Some of the snow showers could be moderate to heavy at times.  Total snowfall accumulations of 3-7" are possible from Ashland to High Bridge, to Mellen to Butternut, east to Upson, Gile, Montreal and Hurley.  (NWS Duluth, MN)

Extended Forecast (January 18th-20th)

An area of low pressure will move across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest for Wednesday and early Thursday.  This system could bring some light snow to the area with around an inch of accumulation possible.  A shot of even colder air will likely follow this system for Thursday as 850mb temperatures fall into the 20s below zero C.  It looks mainly dry in our area for Thursday and Friday...There will be another system that moves out into the Western High Plains late this week, but right now it looks like any snow associated with that system would remain to our south.  High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the teens and 20s in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin to the single digits in Northern Minnesota.  Highs on Thursday will range from 10 below to around 5 above zero.  Highs on Friday will be in the single digits below to low teens above zero.  Lows Wednesday Night will be in the single digits and teens below with some 20s below in Northern Minnesota.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the teens and 20s below zero.

Long Range Forecast (January 21st-27th)

Temperatures will modify this weekend into early next week with some chillier air possibly returning the middle to end of next week.  A couple low pressure systems will likely move out of the Western U.S. thru the middle of next week, however, models disagree on the timing/intensity/and tracks of these systems.  Note:  The GFS model from Today (12z run) was hinting at a significant rain and snow storm for Minnesota January 23rd-24th.  The latest GFS run (18z) now shows a winter storm for early next week.  EUROPEAN (12z run from Today) shows a slower moving system and cold enough air for a snow event in most of Minnesota for early to mid next week.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Flurries possible Overnight.  Low 1 to 6.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Wind chills from 5 below to 15 below.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  Morning flurries possible.  High 6 to 11.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low zero to 5 below.  Wind west around 12 mph.

.Wednesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow and flurries possible, mainly during the Afternoon.  High 13 to 18.  Chance of snow 40%.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow and flurries possible.  Low 10 below to 15 below.  Chance of snow 40%.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 1 below to 4 above.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 7 below to 12 below.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 5 to 10.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  19
Low:    1

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:48 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   4:49 PM CST

Tim