Saturday, December 31, 2011

Happy New Year! Be careful on the roads! Hazardous travel conditions develop Tonight.

Issued at 3:22 PM CST, Saturday, December 31st, 2011

  • Snow with a few to several inches of accumulation Tonight
  • Precipitation may start as an icy mix in Eastcentral Minnesota-Northwest Wisconsin This Evening
  • Strong winds arrive late Tonight and Sunday
  • Heavy lake effect snow Sunday PM-Monday along the South Shore of Lake Superior

Weather Tidbits:

*Today marks the 15th day in a row (12/17-12/31) with an above normal high temperature at Duluth, Minnesota.

*Back to back storms on New Year's Eve! Last year's storm dropped 1-2" of snow and some sleet accumulation in the Twin Ports with even some thunder! The storm last year also produced a severe weather outbreak with 195 severe weather reports including 66 tornadoes.  Illinois, Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama were affected by the severe weather (SPC)

January 2012 Climate Outlook
Source:  Climate Prediction Center

For Duluth, Minnesota:

33-40% chance for above normal temperatures with equal chances for above normal, below normal or normal precipitation.

January Climate Data for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Average monthly temperature:  10.2 degrees
Snowfall:  19.4"
Precipitation:  0.96"

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A band of snow with accumulations ranging from 0.5-2.5" affected portions of Northern Minnesota Today, generally along and north of a line from Cass Lake to Ely into the Arrowhead.  Mostly cloudy skies were found in our area Today with patchy fog and light freezing drizzle, especially before Noon.  Highs were in the upper 20s to middle 30s with east winds under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A fairly complicated 500mb pattern Today.  One disturbance was heading east into Manitoba Province...A 2nd disturbance was moving E-NE thru Northern Minnesota...A 3rd disturbance was moving E-NE thru portions of the Central Plains per water vapor satellite imagery.  100 knot mid level jet streak over Southern Colorado late This Afternoon was heading into the Western High Plains while a 120 knot upper level jet covered parts of the Northern-Central Rockies per RUC model analysis.  Impressive height falls of 90-180 meters were occurring Today in parts of Kansas and Nebraska with that Central Plains system.  850mb temperatures as of 3pm ranged from -10 degrees C in Western Manitoba Province to -4 degrees C in Central Minnesota to +4 degrees C in far Southeast Minnesota. 

Note:  Temperatures at 3pm Today ranged from 28 degrees at International Falls; 43 degrees in the Twin Cities; 54 degrees at Omaha, NE.  Widespread 60s and 70s covered Missouri and Oklahoma with even some 80s in parts of Texas.

Tonight (December 31st)

A difficult forecast ahead since were dealing with phasing issues.  How much snow accumulates, where the heaviest snow sets up and the duration of snowfall continues to be a little uncertain at this late hour.

The Northern stream low remains well to our north in Manitoba Province while the Southern stream low which was currently in Southeast Nebraska moves toward Southern Lake Michigan by dawn.  Two upper troughs will move into the region Tonight while the upper trough associated with the Central Plains low takes on a negative tilt Overnight.

Snow will be ongoing This Evening in Northern Minnesota with total accumulations of 1-3" along and north of a line from Cass Lake to Ely to the Arrowhead...Light snow and flurries will continue in Northern Minnesota Overnight with additional accumulations of less than 1".

Eastcentral Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin will see precipitation develop between 5-8pm This Evening with snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain all a possibility, but any mixed precipitation should turn quickly to snow by mid or late Evening.

Based on latest model data it appears that the greatest snowfall accumulations Tonight will occur in Northwest Wisconsin and possibly into far Eastern Minnesota (Pine County) The reason these areas should receive the greatest snowfall amounts is because the moderate to heavy snow should linger longer in this area compared to locations farther west.

There should also be a quick burst of moderate to locally heavy snow for the Twin Ports, Aitkin and Brainerd Lakes region, most likely between 8-11pm Tonight.

Mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with lows in the teens and 20s.  Winds will become northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph developing after Midnight, especially in Western parts of our area.  The snow that does fall Tonight will blow around as winds increase after Midnight.

Total snowfall accumulations by Sunday Morning:

3-6" in Northwest Wisconsin with locally higher amounts approaching 8".
1-4" in Northeast-Eastcentral Minnesota.
1-3" in Northern Minnesota.

New Year's Day and Night (January 1st)

Low pressure will deepen as it moves into the Eastern Great Lakes on Sunday and to Eastern Canada Sunday Night with arctic high pressure building into the Northern and Central Plains.  Areas of light snow and flurries will be found in our area during this period with accumulations under 1".  Mostly cloudy skies are expected with nearly steady temperatures in the teens and 20s on Sunday with lows Sunday Night in the single digits below to low teens above zero.  Strong northwest winds are forecast during this period with wind speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to around 40 mph.  Areas of blowing and drifting snow will be possible Tomorrow into Tomorrow Night.

Lake effect snow update:

Heavy lake effect snow showers will develop Sunday Afternoon and will continue into Monday along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties Wisconsin.  Additional snow accumulations of 5-8" are possible from Sunday Afternoon thru Monday with 12-18" possible in parts of the Bayfield Peninsula and the Gogebic Range from Mellen to Hurley.  Strong winds developing on Sunday and continuing into Monday combined with the falling snow will result in very hazardous travel conditions with whiteout or near whiteout conditions at times especially in open areas near Lake Superior and along Highway 2.

Extended Forecast (January 2nd-4th)

Arctic high pressure will build into the Upper Midwest on Monday with dry conditions outside of the South Shore snowbelts where lake effect snow will persist.  Highs on Monday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Monday Night ranging from around 20 below to zero.  A clipper system is forecast to move into the Upper Midwest next Tuesday-Wednesday, some snow showers and flurries could occur in parts of our area with light accumulations.  High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the teens with highs on Wednesday in the 20s.  Low temperatures Tuesday Night will be in the single digits and teens.

Long Range Forecast (January 5th-11th)

A nice warmup is expected for late next week with high temperatures climbing back into the 30s in most of the Northland.  Low pressure will pass to our north next Thursday-Saturday with a cold front moving through our area sometime on Friday.  Doesn't look like will see any significant amounts of precipitation as that front comes through.  Cooler temperatures should return to the Upper Midwest by next weekend into early the following week.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY* until 10am CST Sunday

.Tonight...  Patchy fog and light freezing drizzle early.  Snow developing between 6-8pm.  Bursts of heavier snow possible between 8-11pm.  Snow tapering to light snow and flurries after Midnight.  Total snowfall accumulations of 1-3" possible.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind east around 10 mph...Becoming northwest and increasing to 15 to 30 mph late.  Areas of blowing and drifting snow are possible Overnight.

.New Year's Day...  Windy.  Snow showers and flurries.  Accumulations less than 1".  Considerable cloudiness.  High 25 to 30 with falling temperatures.  Wind northwest at 15 to 30 mph with occasional high gusts.  Areas of blowing and drifting snow.

.Sunday Night...  Windy.  Flurries.  Variable cloudiness.  Low zero to 5 above.  Wind northwest at 15 to 30 mph.  Wind chills of 10 below to around 20 below.

.Monday...  Cold.  Partly cloudy.  High 7 to 12.

.Monday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 15 to 20.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 8 to 13.

.Wednesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  19 degrees
Low:    3 degrees

Sunrise Sunday:  7:54 AM CST
Sunset Sunday:   4:31 PM CST

Tim





Winter Storm Update!

Issued at 11:47 AM CST, Saturday, December 31st, 2011

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A winter weather advisory in effect from 4pm CST Today until 10am CST Sunday for the following Counties:  In Minnesota...Crow Wing...Aitkin...Carlton...Southern St. Louis...Southern Lake...and Southern Cook.  Some cities included in the advisory:  Brainerd...Aitkin...McGregor...Hill City...Moose Lake...Cloquet...Duluth...Floodwood...Two Harbors...Silver Bay...Lutsen...and Grand Marais.

*Discussion:  Patchy fog and light freezing drizzle will continue This Afternoon.  Snow will develop by late This Afternoon or early This Evening in the Brainerd Lakes region.  Snow will then spread east and northeast across the remainder of the advisory area Tonight.  Snow could be moderate to heavy at times between 5pm-Midnight Tonight.

*Total snowfall accumulations:  2-5"

*Impacts:  Falling snow with increasing winds resulting in blowing and drifting snow.  Visibility will fall to around one half mile at times This Evening.  Roads will become snow covered and slippery Tonight.

*Strong northwest winds will continue on New Year's Day with areas of blowing and drifting snow.

A winter weather advisory for snow and blowing snow means that visibilities will be limited due to a combination of falling and blowing snow.  Use caution when traveling...Especially in open areas that are more exposed to the wind.  Roads may be slick and hazardous.  Allow extra time to reach your destination.

*WINTER STORM WARNING*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A winter storm warning in effect from 4pm CST Today until Noon CST Sunday for the following Counties:  In Minnesota...Pine.  In Wisconsin...Douglas...Burnett...Washburn...and Sawyer.

*Discussion:  Snow develops This Evening and continues Overnight.  Snow could be heavy at times.  Freezing rain or sleet could be mixed with the snow This Evening.

*Total snowfall accumulations:  4-6" with locally higher amounts up to 8".

*Impacts:  Snow becoming heavy at times with increasing northwest winds late Tonight and New Year's Day.  Blowing and drifting snow develops Overnight into Sunday.  Visibility reduced to one half mile or less at times.  Roads will become snow covered and slippery with very hazardous travel conditions.

A winter storm warning for heavy snow and blowing snow means the combination of strong winds and falling and blowing snow will cause low visibility and some drifting snow.  Snow and ice covered roads and dangerous travel conditions can be expected.  Delay travel if possible.  If you must travel, use extreme caution and allow extra time to reach your destination.  Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle including a flashlight, food and water.  Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time and have a working cell phone in case you become stranded.

*WINTER STORM WARNING*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A winter storm warning in effect from 8pm CST This Evening until 6pm CST Monday for the following Counties in Northwest Wisconsin:  Bayfield...Ashland...and Iron.  Some Cities included in the warning are:  Port Wing...Bayfield...Cable...Ashland...Mellen...Glidden...Butternut...Upson...Gile...and Hurley.

*Discussion:  Snow develops Tonight with moderate to heavy snow at times into early Sunday.  Lake effect snow showers are expected to develop Sunday Afternoon and linger through Monday with periods of heavy snow expected.  Strong northwest winds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph will occur on Sunday and Monday.

*Total snowfall accumulations:  5-8" with 12-18" possible in parts of the Bayfield Peninsula and the Gogebic Range from Mellen to Hurley.

*Impacts:  Snow covered and slippery roads developing Tonight.  Visibility as low as one quarter mile at times from Tonight through early Sunday...And again Sunday Afternoon into Monday.  Significant blowing and drifting snow Sunday and Monday with severely limited visibility especially in open areas near Lake Superior and along Highway 2.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A winter weather advisory in effect from 8pm CST This Evening until 3pm CST Sunday for Price County in Northwest Wisconsin including the Cities of Park Falls...Phillips...and Ogema.

*Discussion:  A mixture of rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow will develop Tonight with precipitation turning to all snow Overnight into Sunday.  Gusty northwest winds will develop on Sunday with wind speeds from 15 to 30 mph.

*Total snowfall accumulations:  2-5"

*Impacts:  Falling snow combined with increasing winds leading to areas of blowing and drifting snow on Sunday.  Roads will become snow covered and slippery and visibility will drop to around one half mile at times once the precipitation turns to all snow.

Tim

Friday, December 30, 2011

Snow begins Saturday Afternoon N/NW of Duluth. 1" for DLH...Heavier amounts N.Minnesota. Lake Effect Snowstorm begins Sunday in Bayfield, Ashland&Iron Counties Wisconsin.

Issued at 4:21 PM CST, Friday, December 30th, 2011

  • Quiet night Tonight
  • Several inches of snow for Northern Minnesota Saturday Afternoon-early Sunday
  • Some mixed precip and snow farther south late Saturday-early Sunday
  • Strong winds, colder temperatures and bitterly cold wind chills Sunday-Monday
  • Heavy lake effect snow and possible blizzard conditions for the South Shore Sunday-Monday

*WINTER STORM WATCH*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A Winter Storm Watch in effect from late Saturday Night through Monday Afternoon for Bayfield...Ashland...and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin.  Some cities included in the watch are:  Port Wing...Bayfield...Cable...Ashland...Mellen...Butternut...Upson...Gile...and Hurley.

Discussion:  A mixture of precipitation is possible Saturday Evening with any mixed precipitation turning to snow Overnight Saturday.  Snow will then continue Sunday into Monday with very heavy lake effect snow showers expected from late Sunday Afternoon through Monday.

Snowfall accumulations:  6 or more inches with the possibility of a foot or more especially in Ashland and Iron Counties.

Impacts:  Snow covered and icy roads.  Visibilities less than one half mile at times.  Northwest winds increasing to 20 to 30 mph causing blowing and drifting snow.  Travel may become quite difficult by Sunday Afternoon.

A winter storm watch means there is the potential for significant accumulation of snow that may impact travel and commerce.  You are encouraged to stay current with the latest weather information regarding this developing winter storm via local television, radio, the internet or NOAA weather radio.

Snowfall report for Friday, December 30th, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Pillager, MN (Cass County)  2.7"
2 miles north of Motley, MN (Cass County)  2.0"
Fort Ripley, MN (Crow Wing County)  1.5"
3 miles northeast of Nisswa, MN (Crow Wing County)  1.5"
Leader, MN (Cass County)  1.3"

2011 weather stats for Duluth, Minnesota

*9 months had below average precipitation.  April, July and August were the months with above average precipitation.

*5 months had below average temperatures (January, February, March, May and June)

*7 months had above average temperatures (April, July, August, September-December)

Weather History:

On this date in 1996:  10.3" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1000mb has moved into Northern Illinois late This Afternoon.  This low did bring some light snow to southwest parts of our area with about 1-2" of accumulation Today in parts of Cass and Crow Wing Counties Minnesota.  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies covered the area with highs generally in the 20s along with light winds of 12 mph or less.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A vigorous disturbance with 60-120 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls (RUC analysis) was moving east through the Southern Great Lakes per water vapor satellite imagery with a west to east H5 flow in place across the Upper Midwest.  An upper level trough was moving east out of the Pacific Northwest late Today with 60-120 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls occurring across the Northwest U.S. per RUC model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 4pm ranged from -4 degrees C in Northeast Minnesota to zero degrees C in Northeast South Dakota to +10 degrees C in far Southwest South Dakota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (December 30th)

All is quiet with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Lows will be in the teens and 20s with a few single digits possible up north, especially if skies become clear for a few hours.  Winds will become south under 10 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night (December 31st)

Low pressure will move into Central Manitoba Province on Saturday while another low moves into Central-Eastern South Dakota.  Mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies are forecast on Saturday with some snow developing in Northern Minnesota, mainly north/west of a line from Cass Lake to Ely.  The precipitation could start out as a mix of snow, freezing rain or sleet, especially in the Cass Lake area.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 30s with some 40s possible in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 10 to 20 mph.

Low pressure will move into Lake Superior late Saturday Night with an arctic front dropping southeast through our area.  Snow should continue Tomorrow Night in Northern Minnesota with snow spreading into the Iron Range and Arrowhead early Saturday Evening.  Some mixed precipitation could develop in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Saturday Evening with precipitation turning to some snow/flurries Saturday Night.

Note:  Total snowfall accumulations from Saturday Afternoon thru Sunday should range from 2-4" along and north of Highways 2 and 169 in Northern Minnesota including the Cities of International Falls, Northome, Bigfork, Togo, Crane Lake, Ely, Tower and Hibbing.  1-3" of snow is possible Saturday Night-Sunday Morning in Northwest Wisconsin.  Snowfall accumulations of an inch or less are expected for the Twin Ports, I35 corridor, west to the Brainerd Lakes.

Lows Saturday Night will be in the teens and 20s with winds turning to the northwest and increasing to 15 to 30 mph.

Extended Forecast (January 1st-3rd)

Low pressure will deepen as it moves into Eastern Canada from Sunday into Monday.  Arctic high pressure of 1040-1045mb will reach the Northern-Central Plains on Sunday and will move into the Upper Midwest on Monday.  Strong northwest winds will be found in our area on Sunday and early Monday with 850mb wind speeds of 40-55 knots which should lead to 15-35 mph winds at the surface.  Temperatures on Sunday will hold steady in the teens and 20s with lows Sunday Night in the single digits below to low teens above zero.  Highs on Monday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Monday Night ranging from around 15 below to 5 above with a few spots up North possibly dropping to 20 below.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the teens.  The combination of strong winds and falling temperatures will result in wind chill temperatures of 10 below to around 35 below zero from Sunday Evening into Monday with the coldest wind chills occurring late Sunday Night into Monday Morning.  Lingering snow showers and flurries are expected across our area on Sunday with dry weather on Monday.  Flurries or snow showers could return to portions of the area on Tuesday as a clipper heads toward the region.

Long Range Forecast (January 4th-10th)

Temperatures are forecast to be above average during this period with a possible clipper on January 4th with a dusting of snow possible for parts of the Northland.  Another system/s are possible between January 6th-8th, but it's too early to tell if they would bring any significant amounts of precipitation to our area or just light amounts.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 17 to 22.  Light winds.

.New Year's Eve...  Mostly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Becoming windy.  Light snow and flurries.  Some freezing rain or sleet possible early.  Snow accumulations of 1" or less.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind becoming northwest and increasing to 15 to 30 mph.  Chance of precipitation 50%.

.New Year's Day...  Windy.  Considerable cloudiness.  Snow showers and flurries.  High 25 to 30 with falling temperatures.  Wind northwest at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.  Chance of snow 40%.

.Sunday Night...  Windy and cold.  Variable cloudiness.  Flurries possible.  Low zero to 5 above.  Wind northwest at 15 to 30 mph.  Wind chills of 10 below to around 25 below.

.Monday...  Cold.  Partly cloudy.  High 7 to 12.

.Monday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 15 to 20.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  19 degrees
Low:    3 degrees

Sunrise Saturday:  7:54 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   4:30 PM CST

Tim





Thursday, December 29, 2011

Late night-Friday AM flurries for Duluth with a 1-3" snow Central-Southern Minnesota.

Issued at 3:06 PM CST, Thursday, December 29th, 2011

  • Tonight's clipper takes a southerly route
  • Southwest parts of our area could see up to 1" of snow late Tonight-Friday AM
  • Complex system for the holiday weekend, main impacts will probably be in Northern Minnesota
  • Arctic air and strong winds Sunday and Monday
  • Significant lake effect snow event possible for the South Shore snowbelts Sunday Night-Monday

Snowfall report for Wednesday Night-Thursday Morning, December 28th-29th, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

13 miles east-southeast of Gunflint Lake, MN (Cook County)  5.5"
Grand Portage, MN (Cook County)  5.0"
2 miles east-northeast of Hovland, MN (Cook County)  5.0"
3 miles west-southwest of Grand Marais, MN (Cook County)  5.0"
Lutsen, MN (Cook County)  4.5"
Sea Gull Lake, MN (Cook County)  3.5"
1 mile southwest of Tofte, MN (Cook County)  3.0"
Kabetogama, MN (St. Louis County)  2.7"
14 miles west of Isabella, MN (Lake County)  2.5"
2 miles east of Finland, MN (Lake County)  2.2"
International Falls, MN (Koochiching County)  2.1"
1 mile east of Payne, MN (St. Louis County)  2.0"
8 miles north of Bayfield, WI (Bayfield County)  1.5"
Silver Bay, MN (Lake County)  1.5"
Alborn, MN (St. Louis County)  1.3"
8 miles south-southwest of Cable, WI (Sawyer County)  1.2"
Culver, MN (St. Louis County)  1.0"
Ely, MN (St. Louis County)  1.0"
6 miles northeast of Cloverland, WI (Douglas County)  1.0"
Upson, WI (Iron County)  1.0"
Federal Dam, MN (Cass County)  1.0"
Dixon Lake, MN (Itasca County)  1.0"

5 miles northwest of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  1.4" officical NWS total.

Weather Tidbits:

*Zero subzero days this month in the Twin Cities.  First time this has happened since December of 2002 and only the 8th December in the last 120 years to feature an above zero temperature the entire month.  Other years that featured no subzero temperatures in December:  1913, 1918, 1952, 1954, 1974, 2002 and 2011.  (Paul Douglas. St. Cloud Times)

*Today marks the 13th day in a row with an above average high temperature at Duluth, Minnesota.

Snow update:

18 days so far this month has had at least a trace of snow at Duluth, Minnesota with 3 one inch or greater snowfall totals.  With that said, just  7.1" of snow has fallen thru the 29th of December which is 9.3" below average.

Weather History:

On this date in 1999:  A record high temperature of 46 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1002mb covered the Central-Southern Great Lakes late This Afternoon with low pressure of 994-998mb extending from Southern Saskatchewan Province to Northern Nebraska.  Light snow and flurries tapered off during the Morning with partly to mostly cloudy skies through the day.  Highs ranged from the upper teens to lower 20s along and north of Highway 2 with upper 20s to lower 30s in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota.  Winds Today were calm or from the north-northwest around 10 mph or less.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb flow was out of the west-northwest with one system off to our east with the next one diving SE into the Northern Plains per water vapor satellite imagery.  60-90 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls were occurring with the storm across the Northern Rockies/Western High Plains per RUC model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 3pm ranged from -8 degrees C in Northern Minnesota to +2/+6 degrees C in Southwest Minnesota.

Tonight (December 29th)

Low pressure will reach a Westcentral Minnesota to Northern Iowa line Overnight.  Snow and mixed precipitation associated with this low is forecast to remain west-south of our immediate area, although some light snow could reach the Cass Lake, Brainerd Lakes and Pine City areas after Midnight.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with lows in the teens and lower 20s with some single digits in Northern Minnesota.  Winds will be variable to east in direction at 12 mph or less.

Friday and Friday Night (December 30th)

Low pressure exits to our south/southeast on Friday.  Some light snow or flurries are possible into early Friday Afternoon along and south of a line from Cass Lake to Sandstone to Shell Lake.  Up to 1" of accumulation is possible for those areas.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue during this period with highs Tomorrow in the 20s and 30s with lows Tomorrow Night in the teens and 20s.  North or west winds on Friday will turn south Friday Night, wind speeds will be under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast (December 31st-January 2nd)

Low pressure from Manitoba Province to South Dakota Saturday Morning will head E-NE as an upper level trough digs into the Upper Midwest this weekend.  The low and upper trough, combined with an arctic front moving SE into the region will lead to some precipitation for Saturday and Sunday.  Snow should be the main precipitation type in Northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead while locations further south could have a mixture of snow, rain and possibly even a little freezing rain on Saturday before the precipitation transitions to snow Saturday Night and Sunday.  Note:  The greatest snowfall accumulations appear to be setting up north of Highway 2...This area could see a 1-4" snowfall between Saturday and Sunday, this would include the cities of International Falls, Bigfork, Crane Lake, Ely, Hibbing, and Grand Marais.  Snowfall accumulations of 1" or less are forecast in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs on Saturday will mainly be in the 30s with lows Saturday Night in the teens and 20s.  Much colder air works into the Upper Midwest for Sunday and Monday as low pressure deepens as it pulls off to our northeast while arctic high pressure of 1040+ mb builds in from the Western High Plains.  The pressure gradient will tighten between the low and high, result from this will be for strong northwest winds with wind gusts possibly topping 30 mph Sunday and Sunday Night.  850mb temperatures will crash to the minus teens to around -20 degrees C for Sunday and Monday as a brief surge of arctic air invades the area.  Temperatures on Sunday will likely fall into the single digits and teens during the day with lows Sunday Night in the single digits below to single digits above zero.  Highs on Monday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Monday Night ranging from around 15 below to 5 above zero.

Note:  Wind chills will likely fall to between 10 below to 30 below zero across the Northland from Sunday Afternoon into Monday.

Long Range Forecast (January 3rd-9th)

Cold temperatures will linger on Tuesday (1/3) then will see a warmup from mid to late next week.  Highs could top the freezing mark sometime late next week based on the latest model data.  There might be a weak disturbance with a dusting of snow Tuesday-Wednesday with another possible system sometime late next week-next weekend (1/6-1/8) time frame.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Flurries possible after Midnight.  Low 13 to 18.  Wind becoming east to northeast under 10 mph.

.Friday...  Flurries possible early.  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.  Wind northwest around 12 mph.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 17 to 22.  Wind becoming south around 12 mph.

.New Year's Eve...  Mostly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.

.Saturday Night...  Light snow which could be mixed with freezing rain early.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.  Chance of precipitation 30%.

.New Year's Day...  Breezy and turning colder.  Snow showers and flurries possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 25 to 30 with falling temperatures.  Northwest winds could occasionally gust to 30 mph.  Chance of snow 30%.

.Sunday Night...  Breezy and cold.  Variable cloudiness.  Flurries possible.  Low zero to 5 above.  Northwest winds could occasionally gust to 30 mph.  Wind chills of 10 below to around 25 below.

.Monday...  Cold.  Partly cloudy.  High 8 to 13.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  19 degrees
Low:    3 degrees

Sunrise Friday:  7:54 AM CST
Sunset Friday:   4:29 PM CST

Tim





Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Snow Overnight...Thursday AM commute could be a slow one

Issued at 8:00 PM CST, Wednesday, December 28th, 2011

  • Much of the area will have a dusting to a few inches of new snow Tonight
  • Next clipper takes a more southerly track Thursday Night-Friday AM
  • A mild New Year's Eve, turns sharply colder and quite windy New Year's Day
  • Weekend rain/snow event?

Weather Tidbits:

*24th least snowiest start to a winter at Rochester, Minnesota.  6.6" of snow so far this season.  (NWS La Crosse, WI)

*20th least snowiest start to a winter at La Crosse, Wisconsin.  4.3" of snow so far this season. (NWS La Crosse, WI)

*The past 6 months has been the 2nd warmest on record since 1873 in the Twin Cities.  The temperature has been almost 5.0 degrees above average.  (Minnesota State Climate Office)

*On Monday, December 26th, a 750 acres brush fire occurred near the town of Gully, Minnesota (Northwest part of the state) in Polk County. (Updraft blog MPR)

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Warm air advection moved across the area Today which led to a brief period of flurries/light snow with accumulations of 1/2" or less.  Some lake effect/enhanced snowfall also occurred Today along the North Shore of Lake Superior with 1.0" of new snow reported at Lutsen (Cook County) as of 6pm per NWS Duluth.  High temperatures Today ranged from the upper teens in the Arrowhead with 20s to lower 30s elsewhere.  Winds were from the south or east under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Fast northwest 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest with a clipper system heading E/SE through the Eastern Dakotas per water vapor satellite imagery while a 130 knot upper level jet was found on the backside of this system across the Western Dakotas per RUC model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 8pm ranged from -10 degrees C in far Northeast Minnesota to +2/+4 degrees C in extreme Southwest Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (December 28th)

An area of low pressure currently in Eastern Dakota will move into Western Wisconsin by dawn.  Light snow will affect much of our area during the night with some freezing rain possible as well for the Brainerd Lakes region.  Mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with lows in the teens and 20s.  Winds will be out of the south, east or north under 15 mph.  Note:  Total snowfall accumulations by Thursday Morning should generally be around 1" with a few spots picking up around 2" of snow.  Up to 4" of snow is possible along the North Shore of Lake Superior, mainly northeast of Little Marais.

Thursday and Thursday Night (December 29th)

Low pressure in Western Wisconsin Tomorrow Morning will continue to bring some light snow/flurries to Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota.  This low moves farther away during the day with dry weather returning to our area Thursday Afternoon.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s with winds out of the north or west under 15 mph.  The next clipper system will drop SE into the Northern Plains Thursday Night.  This second low looks to take a more southerly track compared to Tonight's low, thus the main area of snow (1-2" amounts) should fall from Westcentral through Southcentral Minnesota.  Our area will be on the northern fringes of this system with some flurries/light snow with up to 1" of accumulation possible mainly along and south of Highway 2.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast during this period with lows Tomorrow Night in the teens and 20s.  Winds will be out of the north or east under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast (December 30th-January 1st)

Low pressure passes south/southeast of Northern Minnesota Friday Morning...Could be some light snow and flurries around mainly during the Morning in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Friday Afternoon-Friday Night look dry at this time.  Kind of a tricky setup for the weekend.  Looks like one area of low pressure will pass by to our NW-N while a secondary low could develop in the Western High Plains, this low could then head northeast...Merging with the other low north of Lake Superior on Sunday.  Any precipitation that falls Saturday and Saturday Evening would be in the form of rain or snow and possibly even a little bit of freezing rain.  Colder air advects into the region late Saturday Night and Sunday with 850mb temperatures dropping to the teens below zero late in the weekend.  Some snow and flurries are possible from late Saturday Night into Sunday.  Too early to tell just how much snow, rain and ice we could see this holiday weekend..stay tuned!  High temperatures on Friday will be in the 20s and 30s with highs on Saturday mainly in the 30s with some 40s possible in Southern areas.  Highs on Sunday will be in the teens and 20s with falling temperatures during the day.  Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the teens and 20s with lows Sunday Night in the single digits below to single digits above zero.

Long Range Forecast (January 2nd-8th)

A brief cold snap will affect the Upper Midwest early next week before temperatures warm back up once again from mid week thru next weekend.  The flow aloft will transition from the N/NW back to the W/NW after Tuesday of next week the way it looks now.  No big storms are forecast during this period.

Note:  A period of significant lake effect snow could occur sometime Sunday-Monday along the South Shore of Lake Superior.  Ashland and Iron Counties are at greatest risk for the possibility of a significant snowfall with a lesser chance in Bayfield and Douglas County.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Light snow developing by Midnight.  Low 18 to 23.  Wind east to southeast around 12 mph.

.Thursday...  Light snow early.  Total accumulations 1-2".  Considerable cloudiness.  High 25 to 30.  Wind north, becoming west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible late.  Low 13 to 18.  Wind becoming east around 12 mph.  Chance of snow 30%.

.Friday...  Light snow or flurries possible during the Morning.  Up to 1" of accumulation possible.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 25 to 30.  Chance of snow 30%.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 17 to 22.

.New Year's Eve...  Mostly cloudy.  High 31 to 36.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or mixed precipitation possible.  Low 20 to 25.  Chance of precipitation 30%.

.New Year's Day...  Breezy and turning colder.  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow and flurries.  High 25 to 30 with falling temperatures.  Northwest winds could occasionally gust to 30 mph.  Chance of snow 30%.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  19 degrees
Low:    3 degrees

Sunrise Thursday:  7:54 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   4:28 PM CST

Tim









Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Chilly one Tonight. Mild temperatures for the rest of the week.

Issued at 4:26 PM CST, Tuesday, December 27th, 2011

  • Cold temperatures Tonight
  • A light dusting of snow possible for some on Wednesday
  • A few inches of snow possible Wednesday Night-early Friday?
  • Warmup begins on Wednesday and lingers thru Saturday

A recap of the unseasonably warm temperatures that covered Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Monday, December 26th.

Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  43 degrees *record for the day
International Falls, MN:  41 degrees
Brainerd, MN:  47 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  44 degrees
Grand Marais, MN:  42 degrees
Ashland, WI:  49 degrees
Hayward, WI:  46 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN:  46 degrees
Ely, MN:  43 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  43 degrees
Grand Rapids, MN:  45 degrees
Pine River, MN:  46 degrees
Aitkin, MN:  46 degrees
Moose Lake, MN:  46 degrees
Hinckley, MN:  46 degrees
Superior, WI:  48 degrees
Siren, WI:  48 degrees
Cass Lake, MN:  47 degrees
Gurney, WI:  45 degrees
Upson, WI:  46 degrees
9 miles north of Bayfield, WI:  49 degrees

Minneapolis, MN:  52 degrees *record for the day
Redwood Falls, MN:  53 degrees
Canby, MN:  52 degrees
Hutchinson, MN:  53 degrees
New Ulm, MN:  54 degrees
Montevideo, MN:  54 degrees
Willmar, MN:  52 degrees
St. James, MN:  52 degrees
Olivia, MN:  52 degrees

Weather Tidbits:

*21.9 degrees...Average December temperature thru the 26th at Duluth, Minnesota.  This is 6.5 degrees above normal.  (NWS Duluth)

*19.3 degrees...Average December temperature thru the 26th at International Falls, Minnesota.  This is 8.7 degrees above normal.  (NWS Duluth)

*552 tornado deaths in the U.S. in 2011 compared to 45, 21 and 126 in the previous 3 years.  (NOAA)

Weather History:

On this date in 2003:  A record high temperature of 40 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Much colder day compared to Monday.  Temperatures This Afternoon ranged from the upper single digits from International Falls to Cook to Grand Marais with teens and 20s farther south.  Partly to mostly sunny skies occurred Today with some snow showers and flurries through the day along the South Shore of Lake Superior and earlier in the day for the rest of us.  Winds Today were from the north or northwest under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Big story Today is the strong storm system moving thru the Eastern U.S. with widespread 150-210 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls occurring in that area per RUC model analysis.  W/NW H5 flow covered the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis with a series of disturbances lined up from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains.  850mb temperatures as of 4pm ranged from -18 degrees C in Northern Ontario Province to -10 degrees C in Northcentral Minnesota to -2 degrees C in Eastern South Dakota to +6 degrees C in Southeast Montana/Northeast Wyoming.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (December 27th)

Mostly clear skies during the Evening will give way to increasing cloudiness Overnight with some flurries or snow showers possible after 3am from International Falls to Walker to Brainerd.  Low temperatures will range from the single digits and teens below zero in far Northern and far Northeast Minnesota to the single digits and teens elsewhere.  Light or calm winds during the Evening will become southeast under 10 mph during the night.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (December 28th)

A shot of warm air advection combined with a weak wave passing through the region could lead to some flurries or light snow showers on Wednesday, little if any snow accumulation is expected though, the exception to this could be along the North Shore of Lake Superior where a S-SE wind could lead to some lake effect snow showers Tomorrow northeast of Duluth with minor accumulations of around 1" possible.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the teens and 20s.  A clipper low will move into the Upper Midwest Wednesday Night with a period of light snow.  Could see a 1-2" snowfall Wednesday Night across the Northland.  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tomorrow with mostly cloudy skies Tomorrow Night.  Winds during this period will be out of the south, east or west under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast (December 29th-31st)

One low exits to our south/east Thursday Morning with some lingering light snow/flurries at that time.  The next low heads southeast out of the Northern Plains Thursday Evening-Friday Morning...Model guidance varies on the timing and track of this second low so it remains to be seen on where the light accumulating snow band sets up for Thursday PM-Friday AM.  A third low looks like it will pass north of our area this weekend with the bulk of the accumulating snow staying north of the Upper Midwest, although it could clip extreme Northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead.  High temperatures for Thursday and Friday will be in the 20s and 30s with highs on Saturday in the 30s, but a few 40s are possible in Southern areas.  Lows Thursday Night and Friday Night will be in the teens and 20s.

Long Range Forecast (January 1st-7th)

Not much change in the overall weather pattern as it continues to look like the Upper Midwest will be dominated by a W/NW 500mb flow thru the 1st week of January.  This type of flow should help to keep the bulk of the arctic air north of Minnesota during this period.  No big systems for Minnesota for early January, but weak disturbances could affect the region on occasion.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Clear with increasing cloudiness Overnight.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind variable around 10 mph becoming southeast.

.Wednesday...  Scattered snow showers and flurries.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 21 to 26.  Wind southeast at 8 to 14 mph.  Chance of snow 30%.

.Wednesday Night...  Light snow possible mainly after 9pm.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind east to southeast around 12 mph.  Chance of snow 40%.

.Thursday...  Light snow possible early.  Total accumulations around 1".  Mostly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.  Chance of snow 40%.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible.  Low 12 to 17.  Chance of snow 30%.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High 25 to 30.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 17 to 22.

.New Years Eve...  Mostly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  20 degrees
Low:    3 degrees

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:53 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   4:27 PM CST

Tim




Monday, December 26, 2011

Very warm Today. One day cold blast for Tuesday.

Issued at 5:14 PM CST, Monday, December 26th, 2011

  • Record warmth in Minnesota Today
  • Turning colder on Tuesday
  • Warms up mid-week into the weekend
  • Scattered snow showers late Tonight-Tuesday
  • Couple clippers, minor snow events possible mid-week thru the weekend

*RECORD WARMTH IN MINNESOTA TODAY*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth:

Today's High:  43 degrees.
Previous record high:  42 degrees set in 1908 and 1877.

Minneapolis:

Today's High:  52 degrees.
Previous record high:  51 degrees set in 1936.

St. Cloud:

Today's High:  49 degrees
Previous record high:  48 degrees set in 1905.

Snow depth report as of 6am CST Monday, December 26th, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, MN.

Duluth, MN:  3.0" (NWS location)
International Falls, MN:  4.0"
Bruno, MN:  2.0"
Cook, MN:  4.0"
Floodwood, MN:  1.0"
Grand Portage, MN:  4.0"
Kabetogama, MN:  5.0"
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  4.0"
Upson, WI:  7.0"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  3.0"
Solon Springs, WI:  1.0"

Weather Tidbits:

*Today marks the 9th day this month with a high temperature of at least 32 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

*Today marks the 2nd day this month with a high temperature of at least 40 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Widespread 30s and 40s in the Northland Today with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies along with a brisk southwesterly wind at 10 to 25 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Same old same old...Split flow continues.  A vigorous disturbance in the northern branch of the jet stream was moving east into the Red River Valley of Northwest Minnesota early This Evening per water vapor satellite imagery while a potent disturbance in the southern branch of the jet stream heads east through Central Texas.  These two systems will eventually merge, but not until they get into the Northeastern U.S.  Strong 500mb height falls of 150-210 meters per 12 hours covered much of the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains This Afternoon per RUC model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 5pm ranged from +2 degrees C from Southern Minnesota to Northeast Minnesota to -4 degrees C in far Northeast North Dakota to -12 degrees C in Central Manitoba Province.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (December 26th)

Deep low pressure will pass by to our north/east with an arctic front shifting south out of Southern Manitoba and Southern Ontario Province.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with areas of light snow and flurries which could start out as some drizzle or freezing drizzle in some spots.  New snowfall accumulations should remain less than 1".  Lows Tonight will range from the single digits and teens in Northern Minnesota to the 20s and lower 30s in Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds will be out of the southwest or north-northwest at 10 to 25 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (December 27th)

High temperatures on Tuesday will be 20 to 30+ degrees colder compared to Today...With that said Tomorrow's high temperatures will be closer to where they should be for late December.  Highs will be in the teens and 20s with lows Tuesday Night in the single digits and teens.  North winds at 10 to 20 mph are forecast on Tuesday with north or east winds Tuesday Night at 5 to 15 mph.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected during this period with Morning flurries/snow showers possible with accumulations under 1".  Lake effect snow could affect the South Shore of Lake Superior on Tuesday with 1-3" of accumulation from Northern Bayfield to Ashland and Iron Counties Wisconsin.

Extended Forecast (December 28th-30th)

A couple clipper systems will pass through the Upper Midwest from Wednesday through Friday.  No big snow events are expected with this type of pattern, but the possibility does exist for a dusting to a few inches of snow from mid to late week.  High temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday with low temperatures Wednesday Night and Thursday Night in the teens and 20s.

Long Range Forecast (December 31st-January 6th)

Low pressure is forecast to pass north of our area this weekend, this puts the Upper Midwest in the warm sector with little or no precipitation based on latest model guidance.  Next week looks fairly quiet at this time with no big pushes of arctic air the way it looks now.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Becoming mostly cloudy.  Scattered snow showers or flurries possible late.  Accumulations under 1".  Low 17 to 22.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming north to northwest at 15 to 25 mph late.

.Tuesday...  Colder.  Partly sunny.  Morning flurries possible.  High 30 to 35 early, falling to the teens and 20s.  Wind north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind becoming east at 5 to 10 mph.

.Wednesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible.  High 25 to 30.  Chance of snow 30%.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible.  Low 15 to 20.  Chance of snow 30%.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible.  High 25 to 30.  Chance of snow 30%.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 15 to 20.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 28 to 33.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  20 degrees
Low:    4 degrees

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:53 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   4:26 PM CST

Tim





Saturday, December 24, 2011

Snow showers possible late Tonight&Sunday AM. Merry Christmas!

Issued at 7:21 PM CST, Saturday, December 24th, 2011

  • Scattered snow showers/flurries Tonight and Sunday
  • Gusty winds on Monday
  • Warmer than average temperatures the next several days, Monday looks really warm
  • A couple chances for snow beginning the middle of next week

Weather Tidbits:

*45.6% of the U.S. was covered by snow at this time last year compared to 30.8% this year. (NOHRSC)

*96% of the Upper Midwest was covered by snow at this time last year compared to just 23.4% this year. (NOHRSC)

Weather History:

On this date in 2009:  11.0" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.


Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A warm front has been edging east across Minnesota Today.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies were common in our area with above average temperatures with highs in the 20s and 30s.  Winds were out of the west or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

...Warm temperatures in Southern Minnesota Today...

Appleton:  46 degrees
Canby:  47 degrees
Fairmont:  46 degrees
Granite Falls:  49 degrees
Makato:  45 degrees
Montevideo:  48 degrees
St. James:  48 degrees
Olivia:  46 degrees
New Ulm:  46 degrees

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow covered the region with a strong 120-140 knot jet stream blasting SE out of Central Saskatchewan and Western North Dakota.  A vigorous disturbance was moving southeast through the Manitoba Lakes This Evening per water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 7pm ranged from zero to -2 degrees C in Central/Northern Minnesota to +4 degrees C in Southwest Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (December 24th)

Upper level disturbance currently in Southern Manitoba Province will move E/SE during the night.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will occur Tonight with scattered snow showers and flurries.  Accumulations should remain under 1", with any meaningful snow showers generally affecting locations along and north of Highway 2.  Lows Tonight will be in the teens and 20s with west winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Christmas Day and Night (December 25th)

A vigorous upper level disturbance will exit our area to the south/east on Sunday.  Scattered snow showers and flurries are possible Tomorrow from Northern Minnesota to Northwest Wisconsin with dry conditions from Walker to Brainerd to Pine City.  All areas will be dry Sunday Night.  Might pick up 1-2" of snow Tomorrow from Northern Ashland to Iron Counties Wisconsin due to some lake effect...Elsewhere, snow accumulations if any would be less than 1".  Highs on Sunday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Sunday Night in the teens and 20s.  Northwest or west winds will occur during this period at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast (December 26th-28th)

Deep low pressure will move across Ontario Province on Monday with strong west winds and unseasonably warm temperatures in place over the Upper Midwest.  850mb temperatures are forecasted to climb into the +3 to +8 degree C range on Monday which should result in widespread 30s and 40s for daytime highs in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin while some 50s and even a few 60 degree temperatures occur in Southern Minnesota where there is little if any snow on the ground.  A cold front attached to that Ontario low will move through our area on Monday but no precipitation is expected with this front.  Looks mainly dry and slightly cooler, but still above average for this time of year from Monday Night through Tuesday Night.  Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the teens and 20s with highs on Tuesday in the 20s.  Wednesday could bring with it a chance for some light snow and flurries as low pressure approaches from the W/NW.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the 20s to lower 30s.

Long Range Forecast (December 29th-January 4th)

No signs of any arctic blasts for the Upper Midwest during this period.  Looks like a west or northwest upper level flow continues into early Janaury with fast moving low pressure systems affecting the area.  Any one of those disturbances could bring some snow to the Northland, but the track of these systems are handled differently by the various computer models.  One possible snow event could take place Wednesday-Thursday, December 28th-29th.  Another one could occur sometime around December 31st.  It doesn't look like a good setup for a substanial amount of snow into early January, but if these lows dip south of Lake Superior, then some lake enhanced/effect snow could develop at times near Lake Superior which could give a little boost to the otherwise light amounts of snow.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries possible Overnight.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.  Snow accumulations less than 1".

.Christmas Day...  Snow showers or flurries possible during the Morning.  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Snow accumulations less than 1".

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday...  Partly sunny and breezy.  Unseasonably warm.  High 37 to 42.  West winds could occasionally gust to 30 mph.

.Monday Night...  Variable cloudiness.  Low 17 to 22.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Wednesday...  Flurries possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  20 degrees
Low:    4 degrees

Sunrise Sunday:  7:52 AM CST
Sunset Sunday:   4:25 PM CST

Tim


Friday, December 23, 2011

0.5-5.0" of SNOW Today across the Northland. Little to no arctic air thru the 1st week of January.

Issued at 4:06 PM CST, Friday, December 23rd, 2011

  • Lingering flurries/light snow This Evening
  • Above average temperatures Saturday thru Monday
  • Flurries could fall at times this weekend

Snowfall report for Friday, December 23rd, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

11 miles northeast of Grand Marais, MN (Cook County)  5.0"
3 miles southwest of Snow Bank Lake, MN (Lake County)  3.0"
Bigfork, MN (Itasca County)  2.5"
7 miles northwest of Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)  2.4"
3 miles east of Orr, MN (St. Louis County)  2.3"
4 miles south of Sawyer, MN (Carlton County)  2.2"
Moose Lake, MN (Carlton County)  2.0"
International Falls, MN (Koochiching County)  2.0"
Lutsen, MN (Cook County)  2.0"
Cloquet, MN (Carlton County)  2.0"
Willow River, MN (Pine County)  2.0"
2 miles west of Hayward, WI (Sawyer County)  2.0"
20 miles north of Tofte, MN (Cook County)  1.7"  Note:  Snow depth:  9.0"
Alborn, MN (St. Louis County)  1.5"
Cotton, MN (St. Louis County)  1.5"
1 mile south of Solon Springs, WI (Douglas County)  1.5"
Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)  1.2"
15 miles north of Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County)  1.0"
3 miles north of Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County)  0.5"

Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) 2.2" (Official total at the National Weather Service)

Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  1.8"  (Measured in Duluth Heights)
Proctor, MN (St. Louis County)  1.8"
Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  1.7"  (Measured in West Duluth)

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1016mb has moved into Northeast Minnesota late This Afternoon.  Widespread snow fell in much of our area This Morning into the early Afternoon hours with pockets of snow showers/flurries lingering during the mid-late Afternoon.  The least amount of snow was in Southwest parts of our area, generally around the Brainerd Lakes while the greatest snowfall totals occurred in the Arrowhead, along the higher terrain adjacent to Lake Superior.  Snowfall accumulations ranged from one half to 5.0" from southwest to northeast in our local area Today.  Some sunshine was seen in the Brainerd area Today while overcast skies prevailed elsewhere.  High temperatures were in the 20s with some 30s from Brainerd to Moose Lake.  Winds Today were from the south or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A small, but compact disturbance with an area of 60 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls was shifting E-SE across the Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.  A 110 knot jet streak was found on the backside of this disturbance in Eastern Minnesota late Today.  850mb temperatures as of 4pm ranged from -10 degrees C in Northeast Minnesota to -2 degrees C in extreme Southwest Minnesota while warm air was once again expanding across the Northern Rockies/Western High Plains with +2 to +6 degree C 850mb temperatures This Afternoon per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (December 23rd)

Low pressure will continue to exit our area to the east.  Light snow and flurries will continue into mid-Evening with additional accumulations under 1".  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with flurries possible in Northern Minnesota Overnight as a new disturbance approaches from the northwest.  Lows will be in the teens with some spots dipping into the single digits.  Winds will be out of the northwest or west-southwest under 15 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night (December 24th)

Might be some flurries on Saturday in far Northern-Northeast Minnesota, otherwise it looks dry Tomorrow under partly to mostly sunny skies.  Highs will be in the 20s and 30s with west or southwest winds at up to 20 mph.  A vigorous disturbance will approach our area from the northwest Saturday Night and this feature could bring some snow showers/flurries to Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Overnight.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the teens to lower 20s with partly to mostly cloudy skies along with west winds at up to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast (December 25th-27th)

Flurries are possible on Sunday with highs in the 20s to lower 30s.  Dry for Sunday Night and Monday while warm air blasts east out of the Northern Rockies with 850mb temperatures climbing to zero to +4 degrees C on Monday.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the teens and 20s with highs on Monday mainly in the 30s, but a few 40s are possible in Southern areas.  Cold front moves through the region early next week with mainly dry conditions continuing for Monday Night and Tuesday.  Forecasted lows Monday Night:  Teens and 20s with highs on Tuesday mainly in the 20s.

Long Range Forecast (December 28th-January 3rd)

A couple low pressure systems are expected to move east or east-southeast out of the Pacific Northwest and or Western Canada during this period.  The exact tracks of these lows are somewhat uncertain at this time...Each one of these lows could bring some snow to parts of the Northland, but how much is uncertain due to the differing low pressure tracks per Today's computer models.  Timing of the waves:  One is possible sometime December 28th-29th, another one is possible sometime New Years weekend the way it looks now.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Light snow and flurries ending by mid-Evening.  Mostly cloudy with some clearing late.  Low 12 to 17.  Wind west around 12 mph.

.Christmas Eve...  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 28 to 33.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 17 to 22.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Christmas Day...  Variable cloudiness.  Flurries possible.  High 28 to 33.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 32 to 37.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  20 degrees
Low:    4 degrees

Sunrise Saturday:  7:52 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   4:24 PM CST

Tim




Thursday, December 22, 2011

Get ready for some snow on Friday!

Issued at 8:00 PM CST, Thursday, December 22nd, 2011

  • Late night lake effect snow showers along the North Shore
  • Clipper system brings a dusting to a couple inches of snow to the Northland on Friday
  • Holiday weekend flurries with above average temperatures

Weather Tidbits:

*December will likely be the 7th consecutive month with an above average monthly temperature in the Twin Cities.  Below is the month by month temperature surplus during this warm streak.  (MPR.  Updraft blog)

June:  +1.1 degrees
July:  +5.6 degrees (6th warmest on record)
August:  +2.4 degrees
September:  +0.9 degrees
October:  +6.4 degrees (8th warmest on record)
November:  +5.6 degrees (11th warmest on record)
December:  +5.0 degrees? (10th warmest on record?)

December looks like it will go in the books as the 6th consecutive month with an above average temperature at Duluth, Minnesota.

*Average December temperature thru the 21st:  21.1 degrees which is 4.9 degrees above average.

*8 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 32 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

*3 days so far this month with a low temperature of zero degrees or below at Duluth, Minnesota.

*October 23rd:  The last time we had at least 0.25" of precipitation in a calendar day at Duluth, Minnesota.  0.34" of precipitation fell that day.

*52 preliminary severe weather reports (1 tornado) so far Today per SPC.  Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabma and Georgia were affected.

Weather History:

On this date in 1989 and 1983:  A record low temperature of -22 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High pressure was over the Western High Plains and over Eastern Ontario Province early This Evening.  Partly to mostly sunny skies were common Today with scattered flurries in Northern Minnesota and some lake effect snow showers/flurries along the South Shore of Lake Superior.  Highs Today were in the lower 20s in far Northern Minnesota to the middle 20s and lower 30s elsewhere.  Winds were out of the northwest or south-southwest under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest with an upper level disturbance heading E-SE across Northern Wisconsin with another disturbance heading SE out of Manitoba Province per water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 7pm ranged from -18 degrees C in Central Ontario Province to -10 degrees C in Central Minnesota to -4 degrees C in the Central Dakotas.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (December 22nd)

Winds turning to the south combined with enough cold air in place will cause some lake effect snow showers late Tonight along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Silver Bay, Lutsen, Grand Marais and Grand Portage are some cities that could pick up an inch of new snow by dawn.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with a few Evening flurries in Northeast Minnesota.  Light snow associated with the disturbance in Manitoba Province should reach Northcentral parts of Minnesota between 2-4am with snow reaching the Iron Range and Brainerd Lakes region between 4-6am.  Lows Tonight will mainly be in the teens with some single digits in the Arrowhead and in parts of Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds will become south or southwest under 15 mph.

Friday and Friday Night (December 23rd)

Low pressure will drop E-SE thru Northern Minnesota and into Northcentral Lake Superior on Friday.  This low combined with a 100 knot jet streak and a pretty strong disturbance will cause enough lift to generate some snow on Friday.  The bulk of the snow should come down before Noon in Northern-Eastern Minnesota while snow could linger into mid-late Afternoon in parts of Northwest Wisconsin and in the Arrowhead of Minnesota.

Note:  Snowfall accumulations will range from 1-2" north of a line from Walker to Two Harbors with localized higher amounts of 3-4" possible along the North Shore, from Tofte and Lutsen, to Grand Marais and Grand Portage.  Snowfall totals of 1" or less is expected for Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota.

Dry weather will return to the entire area Friday Night.  High temperatures Tomorrow will be in the 20s to lower 30s with lows Tomorrow Night in the teens with some single digits in Northern Minnesota.  Winds will shift from the south-southwest to the northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast (December 24th-26th)

Looks like another disturbance or two will affect our area during the weekend with occasional snow flurries, nothing more than a dusting of accumulation is expected though at this time.  High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will be in the 20s and 30s with highs on Monday mianly in the 30s.  Lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the teens to lower 20s.

Long Range Forecast (December 27th-January 2nd)

Computer models are hinting at a developing baroclinic zone (temperature gradient) becoming established over or near the Northern U.S./Upper Midwest during this period.  A couple low pressure systems are forecasted to track along this temperature gradient.  Although this pattern isn't favorable for big snow events for our area, it is favorable for some minor snow events every couple of days.  The exact track of these low pressure systems are uncertain at this time as it's unclear on where the baroclinic zone sets up during the final week of 2011 into the first 2 days of January.  One thing that does seem certain is the lack of arctic air in the Upper Midwest through early January.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 11 to 16.  Wind south to southwest around 12 mph.

.Friday...  Light snow during the Morning and early Afternoon hours.  Total accumulations around 1.0-1.5".  Mostly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.  Wind south to southwest, becoming west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 12 to 17.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Christmas Eve...  Partly sunny.  High 28 to 33.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 17 to 22.

.Christmas Day...  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High 30 to 35.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 32 to 37.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  20 degrees
Low:    5 degrees

Sunrise Friday:  7:51 AM CST
Sunset Friday:   4:24 PM CST

Tim






Wednesday, December 21, 2011

A little chilly Thursday. Some lake effect snow east of the Twin Ports late Tonight-Thursday.

Issued at 8:04 PM CST, Wednesday, December 21st, 2011

  • Lake effect snow showers for the South Shore of Lake Superior late Tonight-Thursday
  • A few flurries elsewhere into Thursday AM
  • Clipper system could swipe Northern Minnesota with a bit of snow on Friday
  • Temperatures for the most part will be above average thru early next week

Weather Tidbits:

51.5"...Snowfall total at this time last year (Duluth NWS)
  7.1"...Snowfall total so far this year (Duluth NWS)

Weather History:

On this date last year:  5.8" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.
On this date in 1989:  A record low temperature of -28 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A cold front moved southeast across our area Today.  This front brought some light snow or mixed precipitation to parts of Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota with a few flurries elsewhere.  Snowfall accumulations in Northwest Wisconsin were light, generally under 1".  Highs Today under mostly cloudy skies were in the upper 20s to middle 30s with northwest or southwest winds under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb trough was digging south thru the Central Rockies per water vapor satellite imagery.  Westerly flow aloft prevailed in the Upper Midwest with a colder airmass moving in as 850mb temperatures drop into the -12 to -16 degree C range from far Northwest Minnesota to Central Ontario Province to zero to -2 degrees C across Southern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight through Thursday Night (December 21st-22nd)

A few flurries are possible into Thursday Morning with lake effect snow showers developing along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin.  1-3" of snow could accumulate by Thursday Afternoon from Northern Douglas County, east to Iron County Wisconsin.  Lows Tonight will be teens to around 20 degrees with some single digits in Northern Minnesota.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the teens and 20s with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits and teens.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecasted Tonight and Thursday with clear to partly cloudy skies Thursday Night.  Winds during this period will be out of the northwest or north at 10 to 20 mph with a few higher gusts Tonight.

Extended Forecast (December 23rd-25th)

An area of low pressure will pass to our N/NE on Friday.  Some light snow and flurries could affect parts of Northern Minnesota and maybe Northwest Wisconsin during the day Friday with up to 1" of accumulation possible, mainly east and north of an International Falls to Hibbing to Silver Bay line.  Highs on Friday will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees.  Looks dry Friday Night with lows in the single digits and teens.  Could be another disturbance or two passing by to our north during the holiday weekend, nothing more than a few flurries would occur in our area for Saturday and Sunday.  High temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s on Saturday with mainly 30s for Sunday.  Lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the teens and 20s.

Long Range Forecast (December 26th-January 1st)

No big storm systems or extreme cold for the Upper Midwest during this period.  GFS ensembles do become quite noisy by the middle/end of next week, this could signal a slow change in the pattern as we exit 2011 and begin 2012.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Flurries possible.  Low 13 to 18.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  Morning flurries possible.  High 18 to 23.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 7 to 12.  Wind west around 12 mph.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 13 to 18.

.Christmas Eve...  Partly cloudy.  High 28 to 33.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 17 to 22.

.Christmas Day...  Partly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  20 degrees
Low:    5 degrees

Sunrise Thursday:  7:51 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   4:23 PM CST

Tim

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Winter officially begins on Wednesday, probably won't look/feel like winter until March:)

Issued at 7:24 PM CST, Tuesday, December 20th, 2011

  • A chance for some snow showers/flurries thru Wednesday Evening
  • Christmas weekend looks quite toasty..considering the time of year
  • No signs of any major cold snaps or big storms thru early January
Weather History:

On this date last year, the low temperature was -8 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Southwest winds, mostly sunny skies and a lack of snow cover outside of the South Shore snowbelts and in parts of the Arrowhead/Gunflint Trail areas resulted in temperatures getting back into the 30s in most of our area Today.  Winds were out of the southwest at 5 to 15 mph with some higher gusts, especially along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

West flow at 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest while an upper level trough digs SE from Western Canada along with it's 90-150 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.  Warm air has returned to the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest with 7pm 850mb temperatures ranging from +4 to +8 degrees C in the Dakotas to zero degrees C in the southeast half of Minnesota per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight through Wednesday Night (December 20th-21st)

A cold front will move east-southeast out of the Northern Plains Tonight and will move through our area on Wednesday.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will occur during this period with snow showers and flurries possible at times...There may also be a little bit of light freezing drizzle, especially late Tonight and Wednesday Morning.  Any precipitation that does fall should remain on the light side with snowfall accumulations of one half inch at best.  Lows Tonight and Wednesday Night will be in the teens and 20s with highs on Wednesday in the 20s and 30s.  South or southwest winds Tonight will become northwest Wednesday and Wednesday Night, wind speeds during this period will range from 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast (December 22nd-24th)

Could be some lake effect snow showers in Ashland and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin on Thursday with a 1-3" accumulation possible.  Looks generally dry elsewhere.  An area of low pressure will pass by to our north on Friday with some flurries possible in Northern Minnesota.  High temperatures on Thursday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Thursday Night in the single digits and teens.  Highs on Friday will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees with lows Friday Night mainly in the teens.  Highs for Christmas Eve (Saturday) will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Saturday Night in the teens to around 20 degrees.

Long Range Forecast (December 25th-31st)

Looks dry and mild for Christmas Day (Sunday) high temperatures should reach the 30s in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota with 20s for the Arrowhead and Northern Minnesota.  Could be a couple systems passing by to our north during the final week of December, but no big precipitation events are anticipated for our area.  Temperatures should remain at or above average as we close out 2011.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear during the Evening.  Becoming mostly cloudy Overnight.  Low 18 to 23.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Snow showers or flurries possible...Accumulations of 0.1 to 0.3" possible.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 29 to 34.  Wind southwest, becoming west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 7 to 12.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 13 to 18.

.Christmas Eve...  Partly cloudy.  High 28 to 33.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  21 degrees
Low:    5 degrees

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:51 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   4:23 PM CST

Tim







Monday, December 19, 2011

Blizzard rages on Tonight in parts of the Western High Plains/Southern Plains. Snow drought continues in Minnesota!

Issued at 4:33 PM CST, Monday, December 19th, 2011

  • Clouds linger Tonight.  Spotty flakes/light freezing drizzle?
  • High temps get close to or exceed the freezing mark on Wednesday
  • Occasional flurries from mid-week thru the weekend

Snow drought isn't only affecting the Northland, much of Northern Michigan is having it's least snowiest or 2nd least snowiest start to the season.  2011-2012 Seasonal snowfall thru December 19th.

Source:  NWS Gaylord, Michigan

Alpena, MI:

Snowfall total:  1.0" (1st least snowy)
Average:  27.4"
Departure from average:  -26.4"

Gaylord, MI:

Snowfall total:  13.8" (2nd least snowy)
Average:  55.8"
Departure from average:  -42.0"

Houghton Lake, MI:

Snowfall total:  1.7"  (2nd least snowy)
Average:  53.8"
Departure from average:  -41.8"

Traverse City, MI:

Snowfall total:  3.5"  (1st least snowy)
Average:  31.4"
Departure from average:  -27.9"

Snow Depth report as of Monday, December 19th, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  2.0" (NWS total)
International Falls, MN:  2.0"
Embarrass, MN:  1.0"
4 miles east of Island Lake, MN:  2.0"
Kabetogama, MN:  4.0"
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  2.0"
Finland, MN:  4.0"
Gurney, WI:  5.0"
Upson, WI:  5.0"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  3.0"
Sarona, WI:  1.0"

*Record high temperature report*
Source:  Paul Douglas.  St. Cloud Times

St. Cloud, Minnesota:  47 degrees on Sunday, December 18th.  New record high temperature for the date...Previous record was 46 degrees set in 1939.

Mobridge, South Dakota:  60 degrees on Sunday, December 18th.  New all-time record high temperature for the date.

Weather Tidbits:

*16.7% of the Upper Midwest is covered by snow as of December 19th compared to 86.3% at this time last year.  (NOHRSC)

*20.9% of the U.S. is covered by snow as of December 19th compared to 52.5% at this time last year.  (NOHRSC)

Weather History:

On this date in 2008:  7.3" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.
On this date in 1983:  A record low temperature of -30 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Skies remained mostly cloudy in our area with temperatures about 10 to 20 degrees cooler compared to Sunday, but still near to about 5 degrees above average for this time of year.  Highs Today were generally in the 20s with upper teens in far Northern Minnesota.  Scattered snow flurries and even some patchy light freezing drizzle lingered most of the day, especially around the Iron Range, through the Twin Ports and into far Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds Today were out of the northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

W/NW 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest with a 120-140 knot jet stream extending from Eastern Minnesota to Southern Quebec Province per RUC model analysis.  A strong upper level low was moving E/NE thru New Mexico and West Texas with another potent upper level low dropping S/SE thru Western California per water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 4pm ranged from -12 degrees C in Northern Minnesota to -5 degrees C in Southern Minnesota.  An area of warmth was re-emerging in the Northern Rockies with early Evening 850mb temperatures of +2 to +6 degrees C from Northern Montana to Southwestern Canada per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight through Tuesday Night:

High pressure over Western South Dakota late This Afternoon will move east of our area by Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night.  Mostly cloudy skies will occur Tonight with patchy flurries/light freezing drizzle possible mainly during the Evening.  Looks dry Tuesday and Tuesday Night.  Lows Tonight will mainly be in the teens with some single digits possible in Northern Minnesota.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees with lows Tuesday Night in the teens to lower 20s.  Winds will be out of the northwest Tonight and the southwest Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night, wind speeds will vary between 10 and 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Little change in the overall weather pattern is expected thru the end of December.  A persistent west or west-northwest 500mb flow remains in place across the Upper Midwest with the occasional cold frontal passage bringing flurries and possibly a light dusting of snow to some parts of our area into next week.  High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 30s with lows Wednesday Night in the teens.  Highs on Thursday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Thursday Night in the single digits and teens.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Flurries possible at times, mainly This Evening.  Low 12 to 17.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.  Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 17 to 22.  Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 7 to 12.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  21 degrees
Low:    6 degrees

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:50 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   4:22 PM CST

Tim


Sunday, December 18, 2011

Blizzard Mon-Tue for parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and New Mexico. Hot in parts of Minny Today. Pack get beat, 1st time in 364 days!

Issued at 7:41 PM CST, Sunday, December 18th, 2011

  • Scattered flurries/patchy light freezing drizzle possible Tonight
  • Mid-week flakes possible
  • Temperatures near to above average into Christmas weekend

Unseasonably warm temperatures covered most of Minnesota Today.

High temperature report for Sunday, December 18th, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth and Chanhassen, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  38 degrees
International Falls, MN:  38 degrees
Brainerd, MN:  47 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  41 degrees
Ashland, WI:  43 degrees
Hayward, WI:  42 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN:  43 degrees
Eveleth, MN:  41 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  41 degrees
Grand Rapids, MN:  43 degrees
Longville, MN:  45 degrees
Pine River, MN:  46 degrees
Aitkin, MN:  45 degrees
Superior, WI:  45 degrees
Siren, WI:  44 degrees
Phillips, WI:  43 degrees

Redwood Falls, MN:  50 degrees
Appleton, MN:  57 degrees
Canby, MN:  58 degrees
Montevideo, MN:  61 degrees
Morris, MN:  55 degrees
Willmar, MN:  54 degrees
Olivia, MN:  52 degrees
Sauk Centre, MN:  52 degrees

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 998mb was centered in Central Ontario Province early This Evening with a cold front heading southeast into Eastern Minnesota.  Partly to mostly sunny skies were found in our area Today with the second Sunday in a row to feature high temperatures some 15 to around 25 degrees above average for mid-December!  Highs Today were in the 30s and 40s with southwest or west-northwest winds at 5 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level trough digging S/SE across the Pacific Northwest with an upper level low churning E-NE across Arizona.  A fast west to east flow was in place across the Upper Midwest with a 120 knot jet streak located just north of Minnesota early This Evening per RUC model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 7pm ranged from -2 degrees C in Northwest Minnesota to +10 degrees C in the Southwest half of Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight through Monday Night:

A few flurries or patchy light freezing drizzle is possible Tonight in parts of Northern Minnesota, otherwise this period looks like a dry one under partly to mostly cloudy skies.  A cold front will exit to our south/east by late Tonight, then high pressure builds in from the Northern Rockies.  Lows Tonight will be in the teens and 20s with some single digits possible in far Northern Minnesota.  Highs on Monday will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees with some far Northern Minnesota communities holding in the teens.  Lows Monday Night will be in the single digits and teens.  Winds during this period will be out of the northwest at under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Tuesday will be dry with highs in the 20s to lower 30s.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the teens to lower 20s.  Low pressure will lift northeast out of Texas during the Monday-Wednesday time period, this system will stay well to our southeast thus no precipitation is expected for our area.  Note:  This Southern Plains storm will cause blizzard conditions Monday-Tuesday in parts of New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas...A 6-14" snow band is forecasted to fall in some parts of those states by Tuesday.  A cold front will sail through our local area around mid-week and some flurries could accompany that front.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Wednesday Night in the teens to around 20 degrees.

Looks mainly dry Thursday and Friday, might be some weekend snow flurries as another cold front moves through...No big storms are anticipated for our area thru early January.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Variable cloudiness.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 8 to 13.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 17 to 22.

.Wednesday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  21 degrees
Low:    6 degrees

Sunrise Monday:  7:50 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   4:22 PM CST

Tim