Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Welcome back snow :)

Issued at 5:01 PM CST, Wednesday, November 30th, 2011

  • Minor snow event Tonight
  • Sunshine returns Thursday and Friday
  • Multiple shots of arctic air possible next week

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A cold front sagged south/east through Northern Minnesota Today.  As of late This Afternoon the cold front has moved into Northwestern Wisconsin.  Light snow did develop during the Afternoon hours across portions of Northern-Eastern Minnesota with accumulations generally of a half inch or less.  High temperatures Today were in the lower to middle 30s which is slightly above average as we close out the month of November.  Winds Today were out of the southwest or north under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Westerly flow aloft was in place over the Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis.  500mb trough was digging S/SE through the Rockies with an area of 120-180 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls extending from Eastern California to Southern Wyoming per RUC model analysis.  A rather tight temperature gradient was found across the Upper Midwest This Afternoon with 850mb temperatures ranging from -6 degrees C in Northwest Minnesota to zero degrees C in Central Minnesota to +4 degrees C in Southern Minnesota, this tight temperature gradient is helping to generate our snowfall Tonight.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight:

A cold front will exit Northwest Wisconsin This Evening.  Areas of light snow and flurries will continue most of the night.  Note:  Patchy light freezing drizzle is also possible mainly early This Evening.  A considerable amount of cloudcover will be found in our area with lows in the teens and 20s with some single digits possible in Northern Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the north or northwest at up to 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Scattered lake effect snow showers/flurries are possible on Thursday along the South Shore of Lake Superior, snow accumulations of around an inch are possible for Northern Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin.  Dry weather will return to these areas by Thursday Night while the remainder of our area will be mainly dry after some Morning flurries.  Highs on Thursday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Thursday Night in the single digits and teens with some locations in Northern Minnesota possibly dropping a few degrees below zero.  Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph on Thursday and from the west or southwest under 15 mph Thursday Night.

Note:  Total snowfall accumulations by Thursday will range from 1-2" in Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast-Eastcentral Minnesota with locally heavier amounts of 3-4" possible along the South Shore of Lake Superior.

Extended Forecast:

A cold front will move E-SE across the Upper Midwest on Saturday with one low passing by to our northwest and another one heading northeast from the Southern Plains.  Some snow showers and flurries are possible in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Saturday into early Sunday, but accumulations if any look very light.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Saturday Night in the teens and 20s.  Highs for Sunday will be in the 20s with lows Sunday Night in the teens.  A clipper type low is forecasted to move into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest late this weekend into early next week, this system could bring another minor snow event to our area sometime between Sunday Night-Monday the way it looks now.

Two brief shots of arctic air are possible for early next week behind that clipper system with another surge of arctic air possible for late next week, around December 9th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Light snow and flurries...Patchy light freezing drizzle also possible early.  Total snowfall accumulations 1-2".  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 18 to 23.  Wind north around 12 mph.

.Thursday...  Flurries possible early.  Becoming partly cloudy.  High 23 to 28.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind west around 12 mph.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

.Friday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Saturday...  Considerable cloudiness.  High 25 to 30.

.Saturday Night...  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 15 to 20.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  27 degrees
Low:  14 degrees

Sunrise Thursday:  7:32 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   4:22 PM CST

Tim

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Peaceful night in the Northland

Issued at 4:59 PM CST, Tuesday, November 29th, 2011

  • Chilly/quiet Tonight
  • Minor snow event still expected late Wednesday-Thursday
  • Brief arctic air intrusion possible early next week

Low temperature report for Tuesday, November 29th, 2011
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota

International Falls, MN:  0 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  1 degree
Bigfork, MN:  7 degrees
Ely, MN:  7 degrees
Orr, MN:  7 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  4 degrees
Kabetogama, MN:  4 degrees
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  4 degrees

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High pressure ridge of 1026mb stretched from the Western High Plains to the Upper Midwest.  Sunshine was in abundance across our area Today with high temperatures mainly in the lower to middle 30s.  Winds were out of the southwest or north-northwest under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Potent storm system was moving north into the Ohio Valley per water vapor satellite imagery.  Widespread very strong 12 hour 500mb height falls of 120-240 meters covered the Ohio Valley, Southern Great Lakes and parts of the Mid-Atlantic per RUC model analysis.  Northwest flow aloft was in place over the Upper Midwest Today with a seasonably chilly airmass in the Upper Midwest with early Evening 850mb temperatures of -2 to -4 degrees C while an area of warmer air +2 to +6 degree C 850mb temperatures covered the Dakotas late Today per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight:

High pressure from the Plains to Upper Midwest will keep us quiet under mostly clear skies.  Lows will be in the teens and 20s, but single digits are likely in Northern Minnesota.  Winds will be variable or southwesterly around 10 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

A cold front will move southeast across our area from Wednesday into Wednesday Evening while a wave of low pressure moves up along this boundary.  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies are expected on Wednesday with highs in the 20s and 30s.  Mostly cloudy skies are forecasted Wednesday Night with lows in the teens and 20s.

Light snow and flurries should develop Wednesday Afternoon/Evening across our area with some snow lingering through the Overnight hours, especially from Eastern Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin.

Extended Forecast:

Weak area of low pressure exits to our east Thursday Morning.  Snow showers and flurries are possible on Thursday, especially along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs on Thursday will be in the teens and 20s.  Thursday Night looks rather chilly with low temperatures in the single digits and teens with some spots up North likely falling a couple degrees below zero.  Highs will rebound into the 20s and 30s on Friday with lows Friday Night in the teens and 20s.  Looks dry across our area from Thursday Night into Friday Night.

Note:  Snowfall accumulations from Wednesday Evening into Thursday will generally be around 1" with some locales picking up around 2" of snow.  Northern Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin could see 2-5" of snow.

Looks like we could have a brief bout of arctic air early next week (December 5th-6th time frame) High temps could hold in the single digits and teens across our area while lows drop below zero or close to it. 

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind variable around 10 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 31 to 36.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Light snow.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of snow 60%.

.Thursday...  Light snow and flurries.  Total snowfall accumulations of 1-2".  High 25 to 30.  Chance of snow 40%.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 5 to 10.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

.Friday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Saturday...  Considerable cloudiness.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  28 degrees
Low:  14 degrees

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:31 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   4:23 PM CST

Tim





Monday, November 28, 2011

Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees colder on Tuesday compared to Monday

Issued at 4:20 PM CST, Monday, November 28th, 2011

  • Wind shift with slightly cooler temperatures for Tonight and Tuesday
  • Minor snow system still possible for mid-week
  • No arctic airmasses in sight

Snow depth as of 6 AM CST, November 28th, 2011
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

International Falls, MN:  4.0"
Kabetogama, MN:  4.0"
Northome, MN:  1.0"
Embarrass, MN:  1.0"
Upson, WI:  1.0"
Duluth, MN (NWS)  Trace

Weather Tidbits:

*9.4% of the U.S. is currently covered by snow which is down from 33.6% this time last year (NOHRSC)

Snow drought for Duluth, Minnesota while International Falls has had near average snow totals so far this month.

Duluth, Minnesota:

Month to date snowfall total:  2.4"
Departure from average:  -9.6"

Seasonal snowfall total:  2.4"
Departure from average:  -12.0"

International Falls, Minnesota:

Month to date snowfall total:  12.3"
Departure from average:  +0.4"

Seasonal snowfall total:  12.3"
Departure from average:  -1.9"

Both Duluth and International Falls had much more snow at this time last year compared to this year.

Duluth, Minnesota:

November 2010 snowfall total (thru the 27th)  19.6"
Seasonal snowfall total thru November 27th:  27.3"

International Falls, Minnesota:

November 2010 snowfall total (thru the 27th)  23.5"
Seasonal snowfall total thru November 27th:  23.7"

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A cold front was moving into Central Minnesota late This Afternoon.  Clouds earlier in the day gave way to occasional sunshine during the Afternoon.  High temperatures were in the 30s to lower 40s with winds out of the west or southwest at 5 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Powerful upper level low with 150 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls per RUC model analysis covered Mississippi and Alabama early This Evening with a pocket of -2 to -6 degree C 850mb temperatures in place underneath this H5 low across parts of the Southeast U.S.  Note:  Record to near record warmth occurred in the Mid-Atlantic Today with highs in the 60s, versus the 30s and 40s over parts of the Southeast U.S.  W-NW upper level flow was in place across the Upper Midwest with a 500mb trough along with it's 60-150 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls heading E-SE across Central Canada, Northern Plains and Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 4pm ranged from -8 degrees C in Central Manitoba Province to -2 degrees C in Northern Minnesota to +6 degrees C in Southern Minnesota per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight:

A cold front will move off to our south/east This Evening.  Clear to partly cloudy skies are on tap with lows in the teens and 20s with a few single digits possible in far Northern Minnesota.  Might be a few lake effect flurries or snow showers after Midnight along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin, but little if any accumulation is expected.  Winds Tonight will shift to the north/northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

A ridge of high pressure will cover the Plains and Upper Midwest while strong low pressure heads N-NE into the Ohio Valley.  Clear to partly cloudy skies will occur in our area with highs on Tuesday in the 20s and 30s with lows Tuesday Night in the teens with some single digits possible in Northern Minnesota.  Winds will be variable to north/northwest at 5 to 15 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Wednesday will be dry with high temperatures mainly in the 30s.  Another cold front pushes south/east across our area Wednesday Night-Thursday, still looks like there could be a band of light accumulating snow as this front moves through, although what area/s see this minor snow event is uncertain at this time.  Consensus per Today's model data would be for Northern Minnesota to have the best chance for a 1-2" snowfall from Wednesday Night into Thursday, but this could change.  Low temperatures Wednesday Night will be in the teens and 20s with highs on Thursday mainly in the 20s.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the single digits and teens.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 27 to 32.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 17 to 22.  Wind west around 10 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 33 to 38.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible late.  Low 20 to 25.  Chance of snow 30%.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible.  High 25 to 30.  Chance of snow 30%.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 8 to 13.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  29 degrees
Low:  15 degrees

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:30 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   4:23 PM CST

Tim

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Mild temperatures return on Monday!

Issued at 7:11 PM CST, Sunday, November 27th, 2011

  • Dry weather thru Tuesday
  • Possible mid-week minor snow event
  • No arctic air this week

Weather Tidbits:

*November 2011 will likely go down as the 5th consecutive month with an above average monthly temperature at Duluth, Minnesota.

*November 2011 will likely go down as the 3rd consecutive month with below average precipitation at Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather History:

On this date in 1998:  A record high temperature of 60 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
On this date in 1994:  12.4" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Ridge of high pressure averaging 1024mb stretched from the Central Plains to Northern Minnesota early This Evening.  Skies remained overcast Today with little if any sunshine anywhere in our area.  Some flurries also occurred mainly This Morning.  High temperatures were in the upper 20s to middle 30s which is right around average for late November.  Winds Today were out of the north or west under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a sharp but narrow upper level trough extending from Eastern Texas to Eastern Ontario Province with a SW 500mb flow covering the Eastern U.S., and a N-NW H5 flow across the Upper Midwest.  Warm air has moved back into the Northern Plains with early Evening 850mb temperatures ranging from +4 to +14 degrees C from the Dakotas to the Northern Rockies while a batch of cold air remained over the Great Lakes and Central Canada where 850mb temperatures ranged from -4 to -10 degrees C per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight:

High pressure moves off to our east while a warm front moves into the Upper Midwest.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area with lows in the teens and 20s, but some single digits are possible in far Northern Minnesota especially if skies become mostly clear.  Patchy fog could also develop late Tonight mainly north of the Iron Range.  Winds will become southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Monday and Monday Night:

Warm front moves east of our area by midday Monday with a cold front moving quickly southeast and through our area Monday Afternoon/Evening.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecasted this period with highs on Monday in the 30s and 40s with lows Monday Night in the teens and 20s.  Winds will be out of the southwest at 10 to 20 mph on Monday with northwest winds Monday Night at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Dry weather is expected for Tuesday and most of Wednesday.  Highs will be in the 20s and 30s on both those days with lows Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night in the teens and 20s.  A batch of colder air moves into the Upper Midwest late in the week, and just ahead of this cold airmass there might be a weak low pressure wave that scoots E-NE out of the Western High Plains...If this happens, then there could be a band of light accumulating snow (probably 1-2" amounts) across the Northland for Wednesday Night-early Thursday.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 17 to 22.  Wind becoming southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 39 to 44.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 17 to 22.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.

.Wednesday Night...  Light snow or flurries possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.  Chance of snow 30%.

.Thursday...  Flurries possible.  Variable cloudiness.  High 23 to 28.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  29 degrees
Low:  15 degrees

Sunrise Monday:  7:29 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   4:24 PM CST

Tim

Saturday, November 26, 2011

Brisk wind and cooler temps Tonight and Sunday

Issued at 5:04 PM CST, Saturday, November 26th, 2011

An area of low pressure passed south/east of the Northland Today.  This system brought some rain and snow to our area.

Snowfall report for Saturday, November 26th, 2011
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota

Kabetogama, MN (St. Louis County)  4.2"
International Falls, MN (Koochiching County)  3.4"
Ely, MN (St. Louis County)  2.8"
3 miles north of Orr, MN (St. Louis County)  2.2"
Grand Marais, MN (Cook County)  2.0"
Finland, MN (Lake County)  1.3"
Virginia, MN (St. Louis County)  1.0"

Rainfall report for Saturday, November 26th, 2011
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota

Ashland, WI:  0.26"
Hayward, WI:  0.27"
Butternut, WI:  0.55"
Gile, WI:  0.60"
Madeline Island, WI:  0.44"
9 miles north of Bayfield, WI:  0.46"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  0.54"

Weather Tidbits:

*Today marks the 5th day in a row with a maximum temperature of at least 32 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota (November 22nd-26th)

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1006mb has moved into Central Lake Superior early This Evening.  Widespread precipitation earlier in the day tapered off from west to east during the Afternoon as the surface low pulled away from our area.  As of early Evening there was some lingering snow showers and flurries across parts of Northeast Minnesota while some drizzle and light rain showers continued in parts of Northwest Wisconsin back to Downtown Duluth.  High temperatures Today were in the 30s and 40s with east winds shifting to the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with a few higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb trough extended from the Upper Midwest to the Central Plains with a 130 knot upper level jet located on the west side of this H5 trough and a 120 knot upper level jet just ahead of this upper trough per RUC model analysis.  Colder air was filtering into the Upper Midwest Today as low pressure moves away.  Late Afternoon 850mb temperatures ranged from -6 degrees C in the Northwest half of Minnesota to zero degrees C in Western Upper Michigan per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight:

Low pressure will move into Eastern Lake Superior.  Scattered snow showers and flurries will be found across our area with little if any accumulation expected, exception to this might be along the South Shore of Lake Superior where 1-3" of snow could accumulate by Sunday Morning.  Note:  Patchy drizzle will also continue This Evening around the head of Lake Superior and into Northwest Wisconsin.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecasted with lows in the 20s to around 30 degrees, but some spots up North could drop into the teens.  Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with a few higher gusts.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

Low pressure heads into Eastern Canada while a warm front heads east out of the Northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest for Sunday Night.  Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected during this period with some Morning snow showers or flurries possible along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Tomorrow Night in the teens and 20s.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph on Sunday with winds turning to the southwest at 5 to 15 mph Sunday Night.

Extended Forecast:

A couple of cold fronts will move through the Upper Midwest next week, none of these fronts will bring much in the way of precipitation to the area, but some flurries or snow showers could occur at times, especially around the middle of next week the way it looks now.  High temperatures on Monday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Monday Night in the teens and 20s.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Tuesday Night in the teens and 20s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Light snow and flurries This Evening with a mixture of light rain, drizzle and light snow closer to Lake Superior.  Lingering flurries Overnight.  Low 23 to 28.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday...  Mostly sunny.  High 29 to 34.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 37 to 42.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 17 to 22.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  30 degrees
Low:  16 degrees

Sunrise Sunday:  7:28 AM CST
Sunset Sunday:   4:24 PM CST

Tim





Friday, November 25, 2011

Breezy and chiller weekend with some rain/snow!

Issued at 4:35 PM CST, Friday, November 25th, 2011

  • Rain and snow develops Tonight
  • A change over from rain to snow will spread southeast on Saturday
  • Couple inches of snow likely, mainly north of the Twin Ports on Saturday
  • Dry weather returns for Sunday

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from Midnight CST Tonight until 6 PM CST Saturday for the following Counties in Minnesota:  Koochiching...Northern Itasca...Central and Northern St. Louis...Northern Lake and Cook.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  International Falls...Bigfork...Crane Lake...Ely...Hibbing...and Grand Marais.

Discussion:  A mixture of rain, and snow and possibly some freezing rain will develop late Tonight and Saturday Morning.  The mixture of precipitation will turn to snow by Saturday Afternoon.

Total snowfall and ice accumulations:  1-4" of snow with ice accumulations under one tenth of an inch are expected by Saturday Evening.

Impacts:  The snow and ice accumulation will make traveling difficult if not hazardous.

A winter weather advisory for mixed precipitation means a mixture of freezing rain...sleet...and snow is expected.  Small accumulations of snow and ice are expected on untreated roads and sidewalks.  Anyone with travel plans should be prepared for slippery roads and reduced visibility.  Slow down when driving and allow extra stopping distance because you may lose control of your vehicle if you try to slow down or stop quickly.

It was a warm Thanksgiving across Minnesota.

High temperature report for Thursday, November 24th, 2011
Soure:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  50 degrees
International Falls, MN:  47 degrees
Brainerd, MN:  50 degrees
Ashland, WI:  56 degrees
Hayward, WI:  54 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN:  52 degrees
Orr, MN:  50 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  52 degrees
Superior, WI:  55 degrees
Phillips, WI:  55 degrees
Siren, WI:  54 degrees
Bruno, MN:  51 degrees
Floodwood, MN:  50 degrees
Butternut, WI:  52 degrees
9 miles north of Bayfield, WI:  58 degrees
Winter, WI:  52 degrees

Weather Tidbits:

*4th warmest Thanksgiving on record in the Twin Cities.  High temperature was 59 degrees on Thursday making this the 4th warmest Thanksgiving on record.  Only 3 other Thanksgivings were warmer, they include November 26th, 1914 and November 30th, 1922 with a high temperature of 62 degrees and November 30th, 1939 with a high temperature of 60 degrees.  (NWS Chanhassen, MN)

*Record Event*

59 degrees in the Twin Cities on Thursday, November 24th, 2011 tying the all-time record high set in 1990.  (NWS Chanhassen, MN)

Note:  Duluth and International Falls, Minnesota missed their record high temperature on Thursday by 3 degrees and 1 degree respectively.

*Minnesota Drought Update*
Source:  Climate Prediction Center

No change from last week.

As of November 22nd, all of Minnesota was abnormally dry.
40% of Minnesota is in a moderate drought
20% of Minnesota is in a severe drought. 

Northeast St. Louis, North half of Lake and Western Cook Counties in our local area continue in a severe drought.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1002mb was located in Southeastern South Dakota early This Evening with a cold front stretching from Central Minnesota to Northern Wisconsin.  Another abnormally warm day occurred in Northwest Wisconsin Today with high temperatures in the 40s to low 50s, it was cooler in Northern Minnesota compared to the past few days with highs generally in the 30s to low 40s, but this is still about 5 degrees above average for late November.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies were found in our area Today with winds out of the south or northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Southwest 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery with one upper level low moving E-SE out of the Northern Rockies while another upper level low heads E-NE out of New Mexico.  120-140 knot jet stream was located over the Pacific Northwest behind the Northern Rockies H5 low.  Cold air was gathering to our north Today with 850mb temperatures as of 4pm ranging from -6 degrees C in Central Ontario Province to +4 degrees C in Northern Minnesota to +10 degrees C in far Southeast Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight:

An area of low pressure will move through the Southern half of Minnesota.  Light rain will develop during the night in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin while a mixture of rain, snow and possibly some freezing rain develops in Northern Minnesota into the Arrowhead.  Patchy fog is also possible Tonight, especially near Lake Superior.  Lows will be in the 20s in far Northern Minnesota with 30s to around 40 degrees elsewhere.  Winds will be out of the south or northeast at up to 20 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

Low pressure will reach Western Wisconsin Saturday Morning before moving to Eastcentral Lake Superior by Saturday Night.  Light rain will continue in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota into early Saturday Afternoon with the rain mixing with and gradually changing to snow in these areas by mid to late Afternoon Saturday.  Mixed snow, rain and freezing rain from Northern Minnesota into the Arrowhead will turn to all snow by Saturday Afternoon. 

High temperatures Tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s in Northern Minnesota with 40s over Northwest Wisconsin.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees.  Lingering snow showers and flurries will likely occur Saturday Night.  Mostly cloudy skies are expected during this period with winds out of the north, south or east at 10 to 20 mph on Saturday and north or northwest at 10 to 25 mph Saturday Night.

Extended Forecast:

Sunday will be dry except along the South Shore of Lake Superior where some lake effect snow showers are possible Sunday Morning.  Note:  Snow accumulations of 1-3" are possible from late Saturday Night into Sunday Morning for Northern Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties Wisconsin.  On Monday, a cold front will move through the Upper Midwest with some possible flurries.  Highs on Sunday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Sunday Night mainly in the 20s.  Highs for Monday will be in the 30s to lower 40s with lows Monday Night in the teens and 20s. 

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Light rain developing after Midnight.  Areas of fog.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Light rain during the Morning.  Light rain mixing with and turning to light snow and flurries during the Afternoon.  High 35 to 40.  Wind northeast at 10 to 15 mph becoming north to northwest during the Afternoon.  Chance of precipitation 70%.

.Saturday Night...  Snow showers and flurries.  Total accumulations of 1" or less.  Mostly cloudy.  Breezy.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.  Chance of snow 40%.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 37 to 42.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  30 degrees
Low:  17 degrees

Sunrise Saturday:  7:26 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   4:25 PM CST

Tim

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

A mild Thanksgiving this year

Issued at 4:43 PM CST, Wednesday, November 23rd, 2011

  • Patchy low clouds/fog could return Tonight-early Thursday
  • Above average temperatures thru Friday
  • Light rain/snow Friday Night-Saturday Night
  • Minor snow accumulations are possible for some parts of our area on Saturday

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High pressure of 1026mb was located near St. Louis, Missouri early This Evening with a few areas of low pressure averaging 989-994mb covering Southwestern Canada while a cold front stretched west to east across Western and Central Canada.  The low clouds and fog which has been widespread across our area the past few days finally burned off Today giving way to partly cloudy to sunny skies for most areas and unseasonably warm temperatures for Thanksgiving Eve 2011.  Highs Today were generally in the 40s with a few locales even getting close to 50 degrees! These temperatures at 10 to around 20 degrees above average for late November.  Winds Today were out of the south or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Zonal flow continues in the Northern U.S. per water vapor satellite imagery.  Warm air has pushed as far north as Central Canada with late Afternoon 850mb temperatures ranging from +6 degrees C in Central Ontario Province to +10 degrees C in Westcentral Minnesota to +14 degrees C in the Western Dakotas per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight through Thursday Night:

A cold front will move quickly from the Northern Plains to Central Minnesota where it will stall out during the Thursday-Thursday Night time frame.  Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected through this period with the potential for some low clouds and fog Tonight into Thursday Morning.  Low temperatures Tonight and Thursday Night will be in the 30s with some spots dipping into the 20s.  Highs for Thanksgiving will reach the 40s to low 50s.  Winds Tonight and Thursday will be out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Winds Thursday Night will be out of the north or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Friday looks dry with high temperatures in the 30s and 40s.  An area of low pressure will develop either in Iowa or Southern Minnesota Friday and Friday Night, this low will head northeast...reaching Eastcentral Lake Superior on Saturday with a slow track toward the E-NE into Eastern Ontario Province during the rest of the weekend.

Doesn't look like this storm will bring any heavy precipitation to our area, but there should be some light rain and snow which will turn over to light snow and flurries.  Precipitation should begin either Friday Night or Saturday Morning and will continue at times into late Saturday Night.

Total snowfall accumulations of 1-2" are possible this weekend, mainly in extreme Northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead, and perhaps along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin.

Low temperatures Friday Night will be in the 30s with highs on Saturday holding steady in the 30s with temperatures falling into the 20s in Northern Minnesota.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the teens and 20s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mild for the time of year.  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog possible.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thanksgiving Day...  Patchy fog possible early.  Partly cloudy.  Mild.  High 45 to 50.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 40 to 45.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Saturday...  Light rain or mixed rain and snow possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 35 to 40.  Chance of precipitation 40%.

.Saturday Night...  Light snow and flurries.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.  Chance of snow 30%.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  31 degrees
Low:  17 degrees

Sunrise Thursday:  7:23 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   4:26 PM CST

Tim



Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Hoping for some sunshine Wednesday and Thursday!

Issued at 4:03 PM CST, Tuesday, November 22nd, 2011

  • Milder than average temperatures thru Friday
  • Low clouds, some fog and drizzle Tonight
  • Some sun could return for Wednesday-Thursday
  • System arrives with some light precipitation Friday Night-Saturday
Weather Tidbits:

*High temperature got above freezing at Duluth, Minnesota Today.  This ends our days with a maximum temperature at or colder than 32 degrees at 6 straight days (November 16th-21st)

30 day outlook for December 2011
Source:  Climate Prediction Center

Equal chances for Below, Above or Average precipitation and temperatures for Duluth, Minnesota.

90 day outlook for December 2011-February 2012
Source:  Climate Prediction Center

40% chance for Below average temperatures with a 33% chance for Above normal precipitation for Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather History:

On this date in 2006:  A record high temperature of 52 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A pocket of sunshine developed in a small portion of Northwest Wisconsin, otherwise it was another day under a blanket of low clouds along with some patchy fog/haze.  High temperatures were in the 30s which is near to slightly above average for late November.  Winds Today were out of the south, southeast or southwest under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery shows a near zonal flow across the Northern U.S. for the third day in a row while a strong storm system heads E-NE out of Illinois.  3 PM 850mb temperatures ranged from -2 degrees C in extreme Northeast Minnesota to +6 degrees C in Western Minnesota to +10 degrees C in Southwest Saskatchewan Province.  In other words, mild Pacific air is moving into the Upper Midwest.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight through Wednesday Night:

A persistent deck of low clouds will linger Tonight with areas of fog, haze and possibly some light drizzle which could turn to freezing drizzle in spots is for late Tonight/early Wednesday.  Lows Tonight will be in the 20s and lower 30s with south or southwest winds under 15 mph.  Partial clearing could take place across our area for Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night, but areas of low clouds, haze and fog are also possible.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Wednesday Night in the 20s and 30s.  South or southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph are expected for Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night.

Extended Forecast:

A mild and dry Thanksgiving is expected for our area as southwest winds occur ahead of an approaching cold front from the Northern Plains.  Highs on Thursday will be in the 40s, but some 50s are even a possibility.  Note:  The warmest Thanksgiving on record at Duluth, Minnesota is 52 degrees which occurred on November 26th, 1914! I don't think will reach the low 50s at the Duluth Airport on Thursday, but it could be awfully close.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the 30s, maybe some 20s up North.  Friday will see the cold front move southeast through our area with highs in the 40s with some 30s in far Northern Minnesota.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 20s and 30s. 

The cold front stalls out for a time to our south/east Friday Night and Saturday as a low pressure wave develops in the Central Plains and passes east of our area on Saturday.  Some light rain or mixed rain and snow is possible in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from late Friday Night into Saturday Night...Precipitation should turn over to some light snow and flurries from west to east by Saturday Night as cooler air advects into our area behind the surface low.  Right now it doesn't look like will see much snow accumulation out of this storm with amounts mostly less than an inch.

Model agreement is pretty poor for the early to mid part of next week.  Looks like a cut-off low develops somewhere in the Ohio Valley...Some models move this low toward the W-NW while others move it slowly toward the north.  Some snow or rain could move into portions of Minnesota sometime between Monday-Wednesday of next week if this low moves toward the W-NW, if it goes more toward the north, then little if any precipitation would occur in the Upper Midwest.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Areas of fog and haze.  Considerable cloudiness.  Patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle possible.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Wednesday...  Patchy fog or haze early.  Variable cloudiness.  High 38 to 43.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 28 to 33.  Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thanksgiving Day...  Partly cloudy.  High 42 to 47.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 40 to 45.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  Light rain or mixed rain and snow possible.  High 35 to 40.  Chance of precipitation 30%.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  31 degrees
Low:  18 degrees

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:22 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   4:27 PM CST

Tim

Monday, November 21, 2011

Weather Report for Monday November 21st, 2011: Some locales in the Northland were below zero early This Morning!

Issued at 4:37 PM CST, Monday, November 21st, 2011

  • Pesky low clouds/patchy fog/freezing mist/flurries Tonight-Tuesday
  • Still looks mild for mid/late week
  • Trouble could be brewing this weekend into the middle of next week

Single digits and some subzero temperatures were widespread across the Northland This Morning.

Low temperature report for Monday, November 21st, 2011
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota

International Falls, MN:  -3 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  -5 degrees
Ely, MN:  -2 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  0 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  0 degrees
Moose Lake, MN:  1 degree
Hinckley, MN:  0 degrees
Siren, WI:  9 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  -5 degrees
Kabetogama, MN:  -1 degrees
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  -4 degrees
Gurney, WI:  2 degrees
Upson, WI:  2 degrees

Duluth, MN:  10 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN:  14 degrees
Superior, WI:  7 degrees

*Update on the extreme cold gripping Alaska*
Source:  National Weather Service

-Low temperature Monday Morning was -38 degrees at Fairbanks, Alaska which is a record low for the day.  This is now the 6th day in a row with a record low temperature at the Fairbanks International Airport.  The previous record low temperature for Today was -35 degrees set in 1904, which by the was the first year that records began at the Fairbanks National Weather Service.

-The last time so many consecutive temperature records occurred at Fairbanks was during the record cold snap during September 1992.

-This current cold snap started on November 15th with temperatures since then remaining at or colder than 20 degrees below zero.

-Monday's record was the 7th day in a row featuring a low temperature of -35 degrees or colder at Fairbanks, Alaska.  The previous record was just 2 days in 1989.

-Thru Sunday, the high temperature has been at or colder than 20 degrees below zero at Fairbanks, Alaska for the 5th day in a row.

-The average temperature of 22.6 degrees below zero from November 13th-19th at Fairbanks, Alaska is the 2nd coldest on record behind 1969 and the 2nd coldest week before Thanksgiving on record.

Weather History:

On this date in 1990:  A record high temperature of 64 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Pockets of sunshine were found along the North Shore of Lake Superior and also around the Hayward Lakes and along the South Shore of Lake Superior Today while the rest of the area was socked in under low clouds.  There was also some patchy flurries, light freezing drizzle and fog in Northeast Minnesota.  Highs Today were in the 20s to around 30 degrees with south or southwest winds under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Zonal flow continued in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery.  Meanwhile, a vigorous system over Texas was heading northeast into the Southcentral Plains, but this storm will remain well to our southeast.  850mb temperatures are starting to warm in with 4pm temperatures of -5 degrees C at International Falls, MN to +4 degrees C at Pipestone, MN to +6 degrees C in Eastern Montana per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight through Tuesday Night:

Low level moisture trapped in the atmosphere will result in areas of low clouds, fog, flurries and light freezing drizzle into Tuesday.  Some spots in our area will likely break out of the low clouds though with partial clearing at times.  Low temperatures Tonight and Tuesday Night will be teens and 20s, but some single digits are possible Tonight in Northern Minnesota.  Highs on Tuesday will be mainly in the 30s.  Winds during this period will be out of the south, southwest or east under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Pleasant conditions for Wednesday and Thursday.  High temperatures will reach the 30s and 40s on both those days with low temperatures in the 20s and 30s.  A deep upper level trough is expected to pull out of the Western U.S., pushing through the Central Plains and Upper Midwest this weekend.  Model uncertainty continues Today starting on Saturday, November 26th and continuing thru November 30th.  This entire period could turn unsettled over the Upper Midwest with possible snow or rain.  One system could affect the region this weekend, then a storm from the Ohio Valley may move west-northwest and stall out once it reaches the Upper Midwest during the early/middle part of next week.  Expect quite a bit of fluctuations in the computer models in coming days as the 500mb pattern becomes quite complex after Thanksgiving.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Patchy fog...Flurries or light freezing drizzle also possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 18 to 23.  Wind south around 12 mph.

.Tuesday...  Variable cloudiness.  Patchy fog, light freezing drizzle or flurries mainly early.  High 32 to 37.  Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 26 to 31.

.Thanksgiving Day...  Partly cloudy.  High 42 to 47.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  32 degrees
Low:  18 degrees

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:21 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   4:28 PM CST

Tim











Sunday, November 20, 2011

Weather Report for Sunday, November 20th, 2011. Some spots in the Northland fell below zero This Morning!

Issued at 6:18 PM CST, Sunday, November 20th, 2011

  • Quiet weather for the next several days
  • Moderating temps thru the week
  • Possible trouble lurking for late in the week/weekend?

A significant amount of snow fell in portions of Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Saturday.

Snowfall totals from Saturday, November 19th, 2011
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Saxon, WI (Iron County)  12.0"
High Bridge, WI (Ashland County)  12.0"
4 miles west of Hinckley, MN (Pine County)  12.0"
Mellen, WI (Ashland County)  11.0"
18 miles east of Hinckley, MN (Pine County)  11.0"
Gile, WI (Iron County)  10.5"
Benoit, WI (Bayfield County)  10.0"
Mason, WI (Bayfield County)  10.0"
2 miles west of Bennett, WI (Douglas County)  8.0"
Montreal, WI (Iron County)  7.0"
Gordon, WI (Douglas County)  7.0"
Askov, MN (Pine County)  7.0"
Solon Springs, WI (Douglas County)  6.6"
Hayward, WI (Sawyer County)  6.0"
Ashland, WI (Ashland County)  6.0"
Maple, WI (Douglas County)  5.0"
Hawthorne, WI (Douglas County)  5.0"
Oulu, WI (Bayfield County)  4.5"
Shell Lake, WI (Washburn County)  4.0"
Exeland, WI (Sawyer County)  2.8"
Moose Lake, MN (Carlton County)  2.0"
7 miles east-southeast of Superior, WI (Douglas County)  1.7"
Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  1.0"

Low temperature report from This Morning, Sunday, November 20th, 2011
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  9 degrees
International Falls, MN:  9 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  2 degrees
Two Harbors, MN:  7 degrees
Silver Bay, MN:  1 degrees
Orr, MN:  0 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  3 degrees
Longville, MN:  1 degrees
Superior, WI:  14 degrees
Cook, MN:  6 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  -1 degrees
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  -3 degrees

Weather Tidbits:

*19 degree high temperature at Duluth, Minnesota on November 20th was the first time since March 2nd with a maximum temperature under 20 degrees.

*9 degree low temperature at Duluth, Minnesota on November 20th was the first time since March 28th with a minimum temperature in the single digits.

*Today marks the 5th day in a row with a high temperature of 32 degrees or lower at Duluth, Minnesota.  This is the longest stretch of days with a high temperature at or below freezing since March 23rd-27th.

Dry November and a dry Autumn continues in the Twin Ports
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota

Month to date precipitation total:  0.25"/1.23" below average
Precipitation total since September 1st:  2.86"/5.58" below average
Precipitation total since January 1st:  25.16"/3.98" below average

November snowfall total (thru the 20th)  2.1"/5.9" below average
Seasonal snowfall total (thru November 20th)  2.1"/8.3" below average

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High pressure ridge averaging 1030mb has moved east of Minnesota early This Evening.  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies covered the area with some flurries and snow showers.  Highs Today were in the upper teens and 20s which is around 10-15 degrees below average for late November.  Winds were variable in direction under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A near zonal flow covered the Northern U.S. per water vapor satellite imagery while an active pattern sets up from the Southwest U.S. through Southern U.S., up through the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valley regions as a moist southwest 500mb flow develops as an upper level trough heads southeast through California.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight through Monday Night:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found across our area with lows Tonight in the single digits and teens with a few subzero temperatures possible in Northern Minnesota.  Highs on Monday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Monday Night generally in the teens.  Winds will be out of the west or south under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Looks dry from Tuesday into Thursday with warming temperatures.  Highs on Tuesday will be mainly in the 30s with lows Tuesday Night in the 20s.  Highs for Thursday will reach the 30s and 40s with lows Wednesday Night in the 20s and 30s.  Highs for Thanksgiving could make a run toward 50 degrees in some parts of the Northland, but 30s and 40s seem more likely at this time.

November 25th-27th could become a bit interesting across the Upper Midwest as a deep 500mb trough pulls out into the Plains.  Plenty of model uncertainty for late week/weekend due to this trough and possible phasing of the jet streams.  Right now this system doesn't look like a real big deal for Minnesota, but this time frame needs to be watched for a possible stronger storm that could bring us some rain or snow after Thanksgiving.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Low 6 to 11.  Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Monday...  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 29 to 34.  Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind south around 12 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 33 to 38.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 26 to 31.

.Thanksgiving Day...  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  32 degrees
Low:  19 degrees

Sunrise Monday:  7:19 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   4:29 PM CST

Tim


Saturday, November 19, 2011

Weather Report for Saturday, November 19th, 2011

Issued at 4:27 PM CST, Saturday, November 19th, 2011

Snowfall report for Friday, November 18th, 2011
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota

Alborn, MN (St. Louis County)  1.0"
Cotton, MN (St. Louis County)  2.0"
Bigfork, MN (Itasca County)  1.0"
Little Marais, MN (Lake County)  1.2"
Silver Bay, MN (Lake County)  2.5"
Saginaw, MN (St. Louis County)  2.5"
Lutsen, MN (Cook County)  1.8"
International Falls, MN (Koochiching County)  1.2"
3 miles east of Floodwood, MN (St. Louis County)  1.0"

5 miles northwest of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  1.0" measured at the National Weather Service.

Preliminary snowfall report for Saturday, November 19th, 2011
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota

3 miles southwest of Hinckley, MN (Pine County)  11.5"  Note:  2.0" in less than 1 hour
1 mile southwest of Hinckley, MN (Pine County)  8.5"
6 miles southeast of Sandstone, MN (Pine County)  6.0"
Askov, MN (Pine County)  4.5"
Sandstone, MN (Pine County)  4.5"
Ashland, WI (Ashland County)  4.5"
Benoit, WI (Bayfield County)  4.0"
4 miles north of Grantsburg, WI (Burnett County)  2.5"
Gile, WI (Iron County)  2.0"
18 miles east of Hinckley, MN (Pine County)  2.0"
2 miles west of Hayward, WI (Sawyer County)  1.5"
Fort Ripley, MN (Crow Wing County)  1.3"
Wrenshall, MN (Carlton County)  1.0"

Weather Tidbits:

*553 tornado fatalities in the U.S. so far in 2011.  This is the 2nd deadliest on record.  (Dr. Greg Forbes TWC)

*30 below zero high temperature at Fairbanks, Alaska on Thursday.  2nd earliest -30 degree temperature on record (NWS)

*41 below zero low temperature at Fairbanks, Alaska on Thursday.  1st -40 temperature in November since 1994 (NWS)

*200 crashes with 25 injuries, none serious or fatal in Minnesota between 12pm-2:45pm Today (Minnesota State Patrol)

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1004mb was centered in Eastern Iowa late This Afternoon with high pressure of 1026mb moving into Western Manitoba Province.  Snowy day for Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with some very heavy snowfall totals in a narrow corridor from Pine County Minnesota into Southern parts of Douglas and Bayfield Counties Wisconsin.  North of this area, snow was much lighter from the Twin Ports on west with areas north of Duluth seeing little if any snow Today.  High temperatures Today were in the teens and 20s with some lower 30s in Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds Today were out of the north at 5 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

West-southwest 500mb flow continued across the Upper Midwest with an upper level disturbance zipping E-NE out of Iowa per water vapor satellite imagery.  Plenty of cold air in the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest and Central Canada Today...850mb temperatures ranged from -18 degrees C in parts of Central-Western Canada to -14 degrees C in Northern Minnesota per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight:

An area of low pressure will move from Northeast Iowa to the Eastern Great Lakes by late Tonight.  Snow in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will come to an end by late Tonight.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area with some snow showers and flurries lingering after Midnight, especially along the South Shore of Lake Superior.  Lows Tonight will be in the single digits and teens with north winds to 20 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

High pressure will move across the Upper Midwest during this period.  Partly cloudy skies are forecasted Tomorrow with highs in the teens and 20s.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Sunday Night with lows in the single digits and teens.  Winds during this period will be out of the northwest or southwest under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A weak wave will pass north of our area on Monday, this feature could bring a light dusting of snow to the Arrowhead and Northern Minnesota on Monday...Dry weather will occur from Monday Night through Thanksgiving.  High temperatures for Monday and Tuesday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night mainly in the teens.  Still looks warmer for the middle/end of next week, widespread 30s and some 40s are expected at that time.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*WINTER STORM WARNING for Superior*
Timing:  Until 10 PM CST Tonight

.Tonight...  Light snow and flurries ending between 7-10 PM.  Total accumulations around 1".  Low 10 to 15.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 20 to 25.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Variable cloudiness.  High 27 to 32.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 20 to 25.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 35 to 40.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  33 degrees
Low:  20 degrees

Sunrise Sunday:  7:18 AM CST
Sunset Sunday:   4:30 PM CST

Tim



WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES: Saturday, November 19th, 2011

Issued at 4:01 PM CST, Saturday, November 19th, 2011

*WINTER STORM WARNING*
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota

Winter Storm Warning now in effect until 10 PM CST Tonight for Pine County Minnesota and for Douglas and Bayfield Counties Wisconsin.  Winter Weather Advisory is cancelled.

Some cities included in the warning:

Hinckley MN...Pine City MN...Cloverton MN...Dairyland WI...Chaffey WI...Solon Springs WI...Gordon WI...Lake Nebagamon WI...Superior WI...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Iron River WI...and Cable WI.

Discussion:

Snow, heavy at times will continue This Evening before ending late Tonight.  Snowfall rates of 1-2" an hour will be possible, especially in Southern portions of Douglas and Bayfield Counties.

Total snowfall accumulations:

6-12"

Impacts:

North winds gusting to 20 mph will cause visibilities to drop to a half to quarter mile at times in falling and blowing snow.  Roads will be snow covered and slippery.  Avoid travel if possible.

A winter storm warning for snow and blowing snow means the combination of strong winds and falling and blowing snow will cause dangerously low visibility and drifting snow.  Snow and ice covered roads and dangerous travel conditions can be expected.  Delay travel if possible.  If you must travel...Use extreme caution and allow extra time to reach your destination.  Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle including a flashlight...food...and water.  Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time and have a working cell phone in case you become stranded.

*WINTER STORM WARNING*
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota

Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 6 AM CST Sunday for Ashland and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin.

Some cities included in the warning are:

Ashland WI...Butternut WI...Hurley WI...Upson WI...Montreal WI...and Gile WI.

Discussion:

Snow, heavy at times will continue Tonight in the warning area.  In addition to the system snow, northerly winds coming off Lake Superior could result in some lake enhanced snow through Sunday Morning.  Snowfall rates of 1 to as much as 2" an hour are possible Tonight.

Total snow accumulations:

6-12"

Impacts:

North to northeast winds gusting to 20 mph will cause visibilities to drop to a half to quarter mile at times.  Roads will be snow covered and slippery.  Avoid travel if possible.

A winter storm warning for snow and blowing snow means the combination of strong winds and falling and blowing snow will cause dangerously low visibility and drifting snow.  Snow and ice covered roads and dangerous travel conditions can be expected.  Delay travel if possible.  If you must travel, use extreme caution and allow extra time to reach your destination.  Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle including a flashlight, food and water.  Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time and have a working cell phone in case you become stranded.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota

Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 6 AM CST Sunday for Burnett...Washburn...Sawyer...and Price Counties Wisconsin.

Some cities included in the advisory:

Danbury WI...Siren WI...Minong WI...Spooner WI...Hayward WI...Winter WI...Park Falls WI...and Ogema WI.

Discussion:

Snow will continue Tonight with snow ending from west to east after Midnight.

Total snowfall accumulations:

2-5"

Impacts:

Roads will be snow covered and slippery.  This is the first widespread significant snowfall this season.

A winter weather advisory for snow means that accumulating snow will cause travel difficulties.  Be prepared for snow covered roads and reduced visibility and use caution while driving.  Allow extra time to reach your destination.

Tim


Friday, November 18, 2011

Weather Report for Friday, November 18th, 2011: Hey look it snowed Today!

Issued at 4:19 PM CST, Friday, November 18th, 2011

All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 12 PM CST Saturday until 12 AM CST Saturday Night for parts of Northcentral and Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Counties included in the advisory are:  In Minnesota:  Southern Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...Pine...Carlton...and Southern St. Louis.  In Wisconsin:  Douglas...Bayfield...Burnett...Washburn...Sawyer...and Price. 

Some cities included in the advisory are:  Pine River MN...Leader MN...Brainerd MN...Hill City MN...Aitkin MN...Pine City MN...Hinckley MN...Moose Lake MN...Cloquet MN...Duluth MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Cable WI...Danbury WI...Siren WI...Minong WI...Spooner WI...Hayward WI...Winter WI...Park Falls WI...and Ogema WI.

Discussion:  Snow will develop during the mid-Morning to early Afternoon hours on Saturday.  Snow will continue into Saturday Evening before ending.

Total snow accumulations:  2-5"

Impacts:  Roads will become snow covered and slippery with low visibilities.  This is the first widespread significant snowfall this season.  Snowfall rates may have added impact on area travel Saturday Afternoon.

A winter weather advisory for snow means that accumulating snow will cause travel difficulties.  Be prepared for snow covered roads and reduced visibility and use caution while driving.  Allow extra time to reach your destination.

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

Winter Storm Warning is in effect from 12 PM CST Saturday until 6 AM CST Sunday for parts of Northwest Wisconsin.

Counties included in the warning are:  Ashland WI and Iron WI...

Some cities included in the warning are:  Ashland WI...Butternut WI...Hurley WI...Upson WI...and Gile WI.

Discussion:  Snow will develop Saturday Afternoon and will continue to fall Saturday Night before ending Sunday Morning.  Snow could become heavy at times Saturday Night with snowfall rates of 1" an hour possible.

Total snow accumulations:  5-7"

Impacts:  Northeast winds of 10 to 20 mph with occasional higher gusts will cause visibilities to drop to a half to quarter mile at times.  Roads will become snow covered and slippery with low visibilities.

A winter storm warning for snow and blowing snow means the combination of strong winds and falling and blowing snow will cause dangerously low visibility and drifting snow.  Snow and ice covered roads and dangerous travel conditions can be expected.  Delay travel if possible.  If you must travel, use extreme caution and allow extra time to reach your destination.  Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle including a flashlight, food and water.  Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time and have a working cell phone in case you become stranded.

Low temperature report for Friday, November, 18th, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

International Falls, MN:  4 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  8 degrees
Silver Bay, MN:  7 degrees
Ely, MN:  7 degrees
Orr, MN:  9 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  3 degrees

Weather Tidbits:

*Thursday's high temperature of 24 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota is the coldest maximum temperature since March 6th when the high was 20 degrees.

*Low temperature of 18 degrees on November 17th at Duluth, Minnesota is the coldest minimum temperature since March 30th when the low was 16 degrees.

  • Surprise snow event for some parts of the Northland Today
  • Lingering light snow for some of us Tonight
  • Tricky forecast for Saturday
  • Dry weather returns by Sunday while most of next week looks tranquil
Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A frontal boundary was draped from Southwest Minnesota to Northern Wisconsin to Eastern Lake Superior late This Afternoon with a couple areas of low pressure centered in Minnesota.  High temperatures climbed into the 40s and 50s Today south of this front from Southern/Central Minnesota into parts of Northwest Wisconsin while 20s and 30s were common in Northern Minnesota or on the other side of the front.  Note:  40s got as far north as Hinckley and Hayward Today.  Winds Today were out of the east, south or north under 20 mph.  All the warm air to our south lifting up and into a colder airmass led to a rather large area of snow which affected Northern and Northeast Minnesota Today, snow accumulations of around 1-2" occurred in some locations which led to icy road conditions during the mid to late Afternoon hours.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Water vapor satellite imagery indicates a W/SW 500mb flow across the Upper Midwest with one system heading E/NE through Minnesota, Lake Superior and Southern Ontario Province while a secondary system digs south/east out of the Pacific Northwest.  120 knot upper level jet covered the Northern Rockies just ahead of the Northwest U.S. 500mb trough storm per RUC model analysis.  Quite the baroclinic zone developing Today with early Evening 850mb temperatures ranging from -20 degrees C in Western Saskatchewan Province to -6 degrees C in Central North Dakota to +2 to +4 degrees C in Southern Minnesota to +12 degrees C in Central Kansas per RUC model analysis.

Tonight:

Light snow or mixed snow and drizzle will taper off This Evening in Northeast Minnesota.  Additional snow accumulations should be under 1".  There might be some light rain or mixed precipitation during the Evening in Northwest Wisconsin, but no significant accumulations are expected in that area.  A cold front will settle south/east of our local area Tonight with low pressure exiting to our northeast This Evening.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecasted Tonight with lows in the teens and 20s.  Winds will become northwest or north under 20 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

A quick moving area of low pressure will track from the Central Rockies to the Central Plains by Saturday Morning, then to Eastern Upper Michigan by late Saturday Night.  A swath of accumulating snow will accompany this low as it heads into the Upper Midwest on Saturday.  This system is not expected to become very organized, moisture will be limited and the fast movement of the low should help to keep snowfall amounts down.

For our local area:

Snow develops Saturday Morning, snow continues during the Afternoon and Evening before ending from west to east between mid-Evening and Midnight Saturday Night.  The bulk of the snow is expected to fall along and south of a line from Pine River to the Twin Ports, including all of Northwest Wisconsin.  Total snow accumulations will range from 2 to around 5" in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Note:  The computer models Today are not in the best agreement for Saturday, and any change to the track and or strength of the low could impact snow totals.  It also appears that the band of snow will be rather narrow, so any shift to the north or south to the low will affect what areas see the snow.

Some light snow or flurries could occur at times in Northern Minnesota into the Arrowhead, but accumulations in these areas should be under 1".

Mostly cloudy skies are expected Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with highs in the 20s and 30s with lows in the single digits and teens.  Winds during this period will be out of the north, east or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A dry weather pattern returns to the Northland for Sunday through most of next week.  Highs on Sunday will be mainly in the 20s with lows Sunday Night in the teens.  Highs on Monday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Monday Night in the teens.  Highs should moderate into the 30s and 40s by the middle/end of next week per latest model guidance.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Timing:  Noon CST Saturday until Midnight CST Saturday Night

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Light snow and flurries during the Evening.  Some drizzle could mix in with the snow near Lake Superior.  Total snowfall accumulations around 1".  Low 20 to 25.  Wind northeast at 5 to 15 mph becoming north to northwest.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow possible during the Afternoon.  High 28 to 33.  Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of snow 60%.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow possible during the Evening.  Total accumulations of 1-3".  Low 10 to 15.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of snow 60%.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 20 to 25.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 27 to 32.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  34 degrees
Low:  20 degrees

Sunrise Saturday:  7:17 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   4:31 PM CST

Tim








Thursday, November 17, 2011

Weather Report for Thursday, November 17th, 2011. Minnesota drought update.

Issued at 4:44 PM CST, Thursday, November 17th, 2011

  • Flurries possible late Tonight/Friday AM
  • Milder temperatures arrive on Friday
  • Update on the snow potential for Saturday
  • Next week looks mainly dry with warming temperatures

*Minnesota drought update as of November 15th, 2011*
Source:
  Climate Prediction Center

*All of Minnesota continues to be abnormally dry.
*40% of Minnesota is under a moderate drought.
*20% of Minnesota us under a severe drought.

Locally:  Severe drought conditions continue to impact Northeast St. Louis including the city of Ely, the North half of Lake and Western Cook Counties in Northeast Minnesota.

Weather Tidbits:

*35 below zero Tuesday Morning, November 15th at Fairbanks, Alaska.  New record low for the day.  Previous record was 33 below set in 1969.  (Paul Douglas.  St. Cloud Times)

*120 severe weather reports over the Southeast U.S. on November 16th with 20 preliminary tornado reports.  3 deaths were reported in South Carolina.  (SPC)

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A cold mid-November day as high temperatures only topped out in the 20s with some spots in far Northern Minnesota not getting out of the upper teens!  Partly to mostly cloudy skies were found in our area Today with some flurries earlier in the day while some lake effect snow showers have been occurring along the South Shore of Lake Superior.  Winds Today were out of the west, northwest or southwest at 5 to around 20 mph.

Note:  Coldest low temperatures This Morning were west of our local area.  Hallock, MN dropped to 6 below zero! Thief River Falls:  1 above.  Benson:  3 above.  Morris and Waseca:  5 above.  Willmar:  7 above.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

W/NW 500mb flow was in place across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery.  A fairly vigorous disturbance was moving east out of the Northern Rockies while an upper level trough with 90-120 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls digs south/east out of the Pacific Northwest.  Cold airmass continues in Minnesota with late Afternoon 850mb temperatures ranging from -14 degrees C at Crane Lake, Minnesota to -7 degrees C at Fargo, North Dakota per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight:

Low pressure in Southwest Saskatchewan Province early This Evening will remain west of our area with high pressure to our southeast.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight.  Strong warm air advection will occur Overnight as 850mb temperatures rise from the teens below zero This Evening to +2 to -6 degrees C by dawn.  As this warm air lifts into the cold air, some flurries or areas of light snow could develop after Midnight, but with a dry air in place, no real accumulations are anticipated.  Lows Tonight will occur This Evening with temperatures falling to the single digits and teens...Overnight temperatures will rise to the teens and 20s.  Winds will shift to the south, southeast or southwest Tonight at 5 to around 20 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

Low pressure will track through Northern Minnesota on Friday before it exits to our northeast by Friday Night.  A cold front attached to this low will move across Northern Minnesota on Friday and through Northwest Wisconsin Friday Night.  Some flurries or areas of light snow are possible Tomorrow Morning, then it looks mainly dry for Tomorrow Afternoon/Night.  High temperatures on Friday will be 10 to close to 20 degrees warmer than Today.  Most areas will get into the 30s with a few 40s even possible in Southern areas while some spots up along the border with Ontario hold a few degrees shy of 30 degrees.  Lows Friday Night will be in the teens in Northern Minnesota with 20s for Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecasted during this period with winds out of the south or west Tomorrow and north or west Tomorrow Night, wind speeds will range from 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure over Colorado early Saturday Morning will move rapidly toward the NE...reaching Eastern Wisconsin by late Saturday Night.  A band of accumulating snow will occur north of this low across portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest from late Friday Night into Saturday Night.

For our local area:

Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will have the best chance for a 2-5" snowfall Saturday and Saturday Evening.  Brainerd, Pine River, Aitkin, Hill City, Pine City, Hinckley, Moose Lake, Duluth-Superior...And all of Northwest Wisconsin are most at risk for seeing these amounts with totals >3" confined to Pine County Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Timing:

The majority of the snow should fall Saturday Afternoon through Saturday Evening with snow tapering off from southwest to northeast Overnight Saturday.

Wind does not look to be a real big issue at this time and with the quick movement of the storm and limited moisture, the end result will be for an advisory type event the way it looks now.

Northern Minnesota into the Arrowhead could get some light snow or flurries on Saturday, but amounts should be <1".

Highs on Saturday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Saturday Night in the single digits and teens.  Dry weather is expected on Sunday as high pressure moves into the area.  Highs will be in the teens and 20s with lows Sunday Night mainly in the teens.

Next week looks pretty quiet with warming temperatures.  Widespread 30s, maybe even some 40s should return to the Northland by the middle/end of next week.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible toward dawn.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind becoming south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Variable cloudiness.  Flurries possible early.  High 35 to 40.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night...  Variable cloudiness.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind northwest to north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow developing during the Afternoon.  High 27 to 32.  Chance of snow 50%.

.Saturday Night...  Snow possible during the Evening.  Total accumulations of 1-3".  Mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.  Chance of snow 50%.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 20 to 25.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 27 to 32.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  34 degrees
Low:  21 degrees

Sunrise Friday:  7:15 AM CST
Sunset Friday:   4:32 PM CST

Tim




Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Weather Report for Wednesday, November 16th, 2011: Warm and dry 1st half of November across the Northland.

Issued at 4:02 PM CST, Wednesday, November 16th, 2011
  • Cold temperatures last another 24 hours
  • Thursday will likely be the 2nd day in a row with max temps <32 degrees
  • Scattered snow showers/flurries continue Tonight
  • Update on the potential snow system for Saturday

Climate Data for the first half of November (1st-15th) for select cities in Minnesota.
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, MN.

Duluth:

Average temperature:  38.0 degrees
Departure from average:  +5.1 degrees

Precipitation total:  0.15"
Departure from average:  -0.97"

Snowfall total:  0.8"
Departure from average:  -4.5"

International Falls:

Average temperature:  34.3 degrees
Departure from average:  +4.2 degrees

Precipitation total:  0.31"
Departure from average:  -0.47"

Snowfall total:  3.8"
Departure from average:  -1.8"

Twin Cities:

Average temperature:  43.4 degrees
Departure from average:  +5.4 degrees

Precipitation total:  Trace
Departure from average:  -0.91"

Snowfall total:  Trace
Departure from average:  -3.4"

Weather Tidbits:

*Per SPC:  8 tornado reports Overnight Tuesday in Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi.  4 injuries were reported in Mississippi early This Morning.

Snowfall reports from Tuesday Night
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Cotton, MN (St. Louis County)  3.4"
McKinley, MN (St. Louis County)  3.2"
Nashwauk, MN (Itasca County)  2.8"
5 miles north of Virginia, MN (St. Louis County)  2.0"
Silver Bay, MN (Lake County)  2.0"
Ely, MN (St. Louis County)  1.6"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A cold mid-November day with below average high temperatures which is something we have not seen in quite some time.  Highs Today were in the 20s to around 30 degrees with one location Phillips, WI sitting at 32 degrees late This Afternoon.  Skies were mostly cloudy Today with scattered snow showers and flurries.  The snow didn't last very long in most locales, thus only a light dusting of accumulation was common, but a few spots picked up somewhat steadier snow Today with a few inches of accumulation, this was especially true NNE of Duluth.  Winds Today were out of the west or southwest at 10 to 20 mph with late Afternoon wind chills running in the upper single digits to around 20 degrees.  Note:  At 9am Today, the wind chill was 1 below zero at Thief River Falls, Minnesota.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery with plenty of cold air flowing into the region with 850mb temperatures ranging from -12 degrees C in Northern Minnesota to -16 degrees C in Eastcentral Saskatchewan Province per RUC model analysis.  A powerful jet stream of up to 150 knots in Eastern Canada is helping to bring down the cold air from Western Canada.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight:

Skies will be variably cloudy with lingering snow showers and flurries.  A dusting to 1" of new snow is possible in spots.  Lows will be in the teens to around 20 degrees with some single digits for Western-Northwest areas.  Westerly winds will continue at 10 to 20 mph with wind chills in the single digits below to lower teens above zero.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Large area of high pressure will move across the Central Plains Tomorrow.  This high will move to the southeast of our area by Thursday Night with southerly winds returning at that time.  Highs on Thursday will mainly be in the 20s with lows Thursday Night in the teens and 20s.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecasted during this period with some flurries or a little light snow possible Thursday Night in Northern Minnesota as low pressure approaches from the northwest.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will pass to the north and then northeast of our area on Friday with a cold front attached to this low dropping southeast across the Upper Midwest.  Some flurries or snow showers are possible on Friday in far Northern Minnesota with dry weather for the rest of our area.  Temperatures will moderate on Friday with highs in the 30s to lower 40s with lows Friday Night in the 20s with some teens for Northern Minnesota.  System for this weekend seems to be trending south and weaker with Today's model runs.  Broad area of low pressure will move out into the Central Plains Saturday Morning before it moves quickly to the NE toward Eastcentral Wisconsin by Saturday Night.  The quick movement of this system, plus a lack of moisture should help to keep snowfall totals down the way it looks now. 

Based on the latest track, it appears that Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will be in line for a 2-4" snowfall on Saturday and Saturday Evening with an outside chance for up to 5" of accumulation.  The area that could see these types of accumulation is expected to be along and south of a line from Pine River to the Twin Ports, including all of Northwest Wisconsin.  Snow accumulations of 1-2" will be possible in Northern Minnesota into the Arrowhead.  Note:  The track and intensity of this system could change in coming days which may result in more or less snow for parts of our area then what is predicted at this time.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Saturday Night in the teens and 20s.

Dry, but chilly weather is expected for Sunday and Monday...In fact the dry conditions should hold most of next week, although temperatures will start to warm-up for the rest of Thanksgiving week.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Scattered snow showers and flurries.  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 13 to 18.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  Morning flurries possible.  High 23 to 28.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind becoming south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Considerable cloudiness.  High 35 to 40.

.Friday Night...  Variable cloudiness.  Low 20 to 25.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow possible.  High 28 to 33.  Chance of snow 40%.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow possible during the Evening.  Low 10 to 15.  Chance of snow 40%.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  35 degrees
Low:  22 degrees

Sunrise Thursday:  7:14 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   4:33 PM CST

Tim





Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Weather Report for Tuesday, November 15th, 2011. Coldest air of the season arrives Tonight, lingers thru Thursday. Daytime highs on Wednesday may not get out of the 20s! Some snow and icy roads Tonight-Wednesday. Latest info. on the potential storm this weekend.

Issued at 7:57 PM CST, Tuesday, November 15th, 2011

Weather Tidbits:

*8th warmest October on record (since 1880) globally (NOAA)
*10th warmest year on record globally so far in 2011.  (NOAA)
*0.3" of snow has fallen so far Today at the Duluth National Weather Service.  1st time since April 28th with a snowfall total of at least 0.1".

Couple snowfall reports from Today.  (NWS Duluth, Minnesota)

Cotton, MN (St. Louis County)  2.4"
Kettle River, MN (Carlton County)  2.0"
Blackberry, MN (Itasca County)  1.5"

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

An interesting day with plenty of changes occurring throughout the day.  A band of snow or mixed snow and rain occurred This Morning in parts of Northeast-Eastcentral Minnesota and far Northwest Wisconsin...Locations that saw mainly snow picked up a dusting to as much as 2" of accumulation This Morning.  A brief break in the precipitation occurred This Afternoon with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies.  Then, another band of rain and snow tracked east across portions of the Northland during the mid to late Afternoon hours.  Some of the snow was moderate to heavy at times late This Afternoon and there was even a few reports of THUNDER-SNOW in parts of our area.  High temperatures Today ranged from the middle to upper 30s in far Northern Minnesota to the 40s elsewhere with a few locales down south up around 50 degrees.  Winds Today were variable in direction generally under 20 mph.  Surface map as of 7pm featured a broad area of low pressure averaging 1002-1004mb covering the Upper Midwest, Northern Great Lakes and Ontario Province.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A potent disturbance was heading east through Minnesota early This Evening per water vapor satellite imagery.  W/NW 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest with a powerful jet stream of 120-140 knots extending from Eastern Iowa to Michigan to New England while a 100-110 knot jet covered the Pacific Northwest per RUC model analysis.  Coldest airmass so far this season is moving into the Upper Midwest Tonight with 8pm 850mb temperatures ranging from -7 degrees at International Falls, Minnesota to -10 degrees C at Bismarck, North Dakota to -14 degrees C in parts of Westcentral Saskatchewan Province.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight:

Low pressure will be centered to our E/NE while a vigorous disturbance pulls to the east of our area during the night.  Occasional snow showers and flurries will be found throughout our area Tonight with some drizzle or light rain mixing in with the snow in some locations before Midnight.  Some of the snow could be heavy at times especially This Evening in Northeast Minnesota.  Lows will be in the teens and 20s with mostly cloudy skies and westerly winds from 15 to 30 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Low pressure will be centered to our north with high pressure to our southwest.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecasted during this period with scattered snow showers and flurries.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Wednesday Night in the single digits and teens.  West or northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph are expected through this period.

Note:  Snowfall accumulations of 1-2" with localized amounts up to 3" are possible Tonight in Northern Minnesota, mainly north of Highway 2.  A dusting to 1" of snow is possible by dawn for the remainder of our area.  Be cautious if you have travel plans Tonight and Wednesday Morning as some roads could be snow covered and very slippery.  Also, roads that were previously wet could ice up in spots as temperatures fall below freezing during the night.

Extended Forecast:

Thursday looks dry and cool with highs mainly in the 20s.  An area of low pressure looks to pass north of our area on Friday, some light snow or flurries are possible in Northern Minnesota Thursday Night and Friday, but accumulations if any look very light at this time.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the teens and 20s with highs on Friday warming to the 30s to lower 40s.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 20s with some teens possible in Northern Minnesota.

Computer models disagree on the track of the low for Saturday.  The 12z GEM and EUROPEAN models take the surface low farther south-east which would result in the heaviest snow remaining south of our area on Saturday.  The GFS and JMA models are farther north and would put the heavier band of snow right through our local area.  The D-GEX is slightly more to the west-north and would result in the heavy snow band hitting Northcentral Minnesota with more a rain/snow mixture farther south/east.  Expect more changes to occur with the track of this storm during the next couple of days.

Timing:  If this storm hits it still looks like it would do so during the Saturday-early Sunday time frame with improving conditions by Sunday Afternoon, if not sooner.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Occasional snow showers and flurries which could mix with drizzle or light rain before Midnight.  Snow accumulations of 1" or less.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Wednesday...  Variable cloudiness.  Scattered snow showers and flurries.  High 27 to 32.  Wind west at 15 to 20 mph.  Chance of snow 30%.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 13 to 18.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 27 to 32.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Friday...  Considerable cloudiness.  High 35 to 40.

.Friday Night...  Variable cloudiness.  Low 20 to 25.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow or rain possible.  High 28 to 33.  Chance of precipitation 40%.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  35 degrees
Low:  22 degrees

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:13 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   4:34 PM CST

Tim