Monday, October 31, 2011

Weather Report for Monday, October 31st, 2011. Generally dry, but a few sprinkles/light rain showers can't be ruled out late Tonight/Tuesday AM. Light rain potential for Northwest Wisconsin Tuesday PM-Wednesday. Storm still expected this weekend, but it looks to pass west of us, meaning we stay on the "warm side" while signifcant snow targets portions of North and South Dakota.

Issued at 3:49 PM CDT, Monday, October 31st, 2011

It's been a dry fall so far in much of Minnesota.

First number represents the total amount of precipitation since September 1st.  The second number represents the departure from average.

Duluth, MN (Airport location)  2.60"/-4.29"
International Falls, MN:  2.73"/-2.29"
Twin Cities, MN:  1.06"/-4.39"
St. Cloud, MN:  2.17"/-3.72"

Note:  October 2011 will be the 4th consecutive month with an above average monthly temperature at Duluth, Minnesota.

Month by month temperature departures in Duluth, MN for 2011:

January:  -1.3 degrees.
February:  -0.3 degrees.
March:  -1.4 degrees
April:  +0.1 degrees.
May:  -2.1 degrees.
June:  -1.9 degrees.
July:  +4.3 degrees.
August:  +2.5 degrees.
September:  +0.6 degrees.
October:  Should end about +5.0 above average.

Updated climate outlook for November 2011.
Source:  Climate Prediction Center.

For Duluth, Minnesota:

40% chance for above average temperatures.  Equal chance for above, below or normal precipitation.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1014mb was over Central Lake Superior late This Afternoon.  In wake of this low skies were partly sunny to mostly cloudy in our area Today with near to slightly above average temperatures as we close out the month of October.  Highs Today were in the 40s to around 50 degrees with winds out of the south or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb trough/low over the Ohio Valley and Eastern Great Lakes was moving rather quickly off toward the east per water vapor satellite imagery.  In wake of this low was a zonal flow which was in place across the Northern U.S. with a nice area of warm air covering the Northern and Central Plains Today.  Late Afternoon 850mb temperatures ranged from +10 to +18 degrees C in these areas with widespread 60 to 70 degree temperatures This Afternoon from North Dakota to Texas.  A few spots in Southwest Minnesota even made it to 60 degrees Today, they include Canby and Pipestone...61 and 63 degrees respectively.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight:

A cold front currently over the Central Dakotas will move east and will move through Northern Minnesota Overnight.  A 30-40 knot southwest low level jet will develop ahead of this front Tonight with warm air advection occurring as well.  Some rain showers could develop after Midnight in parts of our area, any rain that does fall should be very light.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 30s and 40s are expected Tonight with south or southwest winds up to 20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Cold front will move southeast and should exit Eastern Minnesota Tomorrow Morning and will move through Northwest Wisconsin Tuesday Afternoon/Evening.  Some light rain should develop at times in Northwest Wisconsin and possibly in Eastern Minnesota during this period with dry conditions for Northern Minnesota.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Tuesday Night generally in the 30s.  Winds during this period will be out of the southwest, north or west at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Some light rain could affect the Hayward Lakes, Park Falls, Phillips and Hurley areas in Northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday with dry weather elsewhere.  A cold front will drop south through Wisconsin on Wednesday while a wave of low pressure heads NE along this boundary from Wednesday to Thursday, the more significant precipitation associated with that low will remain south of our local area for mid-week.  Highs on Wednesday will mainly be in the 40s with lows Wednesday Night in the 20s with some teens possible in the traditional cold spots.  Thursday and Friday is looking dry at this time with highs on Thursday generally in the 40s with lows Thursday Night in the 20s and 30s.

Update on this weekend's storm threat:

Model runs from Today continue to show a fairly potent low moving into Colorado on Friday and to the Eastern Dakotas or Western Minnesota over the weekend.  Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will be on the warm side of this storm, as a result the bulk of the precipitation will fall as rain for Saturday and Saturday Night, then as low pressure moves north of our area on Sunday, cold advection will move in from the southwest and that's when we could see the change over from rain to snow showers/flurries take place in the Northland.  Right now it does not look like will see much if any accumulating snow out of this storm, and rainfall amounts look fairly light at this time as well, since much of our area looks to get dry slotted based on latest model data. 

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Light Showers or sprinkles possible after Midnight.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday...  Variable cloudiness.  Light Showers or sprinkles possible early.  High 50 to 55.  Wind southwest, becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 22 to 27.

.Thursday...  Mostly sunny.  High 40 to 45.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 25 to 30.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 45 to 50.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  44 degrees
Low:  30 degrees

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:50 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   5:53 PM CDT

Tim


Sunday, October 30, 2011

10/30/11: Sunday's Weather Report. Patchy drizzle for parts of the Northland Tonight. Halloween Day and Night looks dry, a touch on the cool side by trick or treat time. Light rain potential Tuesday PM-Wednesday? Possible storm Nov. 5th-6th?

Issued at 6:59 PM CDT, Sunday, October 30th, 2011

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A clipper type system has been pushing south/east through the Upper Midwest Today.  Some light rain and drizzle affected parts of Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota, but rainfall totals were extremely light, generally a few hundreths of an inch at most.  Skies were partly sunny to mostly cloudy with highs mainly in the 40s with a few spots in the low 50s.  Winds were out of the west, east or north at 5 to 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb low/trough continued to move southeast across the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes early This Evening per water vapor satellite imagery.  Greatest 500mb height falls (60 meters/12 hours) associated with this low have pushed into Northwestern Illinois per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight:

Low pressure will move into Eastern Wisconsin.  Mostly cloudy skies are expected in our area behind this low with patchy drizzle or light rain possible in Northwest Wisconsin, and maybe along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Lows Tonight will mainly be in the 30s with east, north or west winds under 15 mph.

Halloween Day and Night:

Low pressure weakens to our east on Monday with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies found in our area.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 40s to lower 50s.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will occur Monday Night with lows in the 30s to low 40s.  Winds during this period will be out of the south or southwest under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A cold front will move southeast across our area from Tuesday into early Wednesday.  Some light rain could develop Tuesday Afternoon into Wednesday Morning as this front comes through, this does not look like a big precipitation maker for our area though.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Tuesday Night in the 20s and 30s.  Dry weather should return to Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Night, highs will be in the 40s with lows in the 20s and 30s.

Long range model runs from Today continue to show a low pressure system lifting N-NE out of the Rockies or Central Plains next weekend (November 5th-6th)  The exact track, intensity and timing of this storm is still uncertain since it is still several days away.  Based on the current storm track, it appears that most of Northern-Eastern Minnesota and all of Northwest Wisconsin would see mainly rain with this storm for next weekend with rain turning to snow sometime Saturday Night or Sunday, mainly west of a line from International Falls to Aitkin with a change over to some flurries for the remainder of our area for late next weekend.

Storm track forecast for next Saturday-Sunday.

12z GFS from Today:  Low pressure moves from Southwest Kansas to Northeast Minnesota.
12z ECM from Today:  Low pressure moves from Northeast Colorado to Eastern North Dakota.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 33 to 38.  Wind northeast to north at 5 to 15 mph.

.HALLOWEEN...  Variable cloudiness.  High 45 to 50.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 33 to 38.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Considerable cloudiness.  High 45 to 50.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Light rain possible.  Low 35 to 40.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday...  Variable cloudiness.  High 40 to 45.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  44 degrees
Low:  30 degrees

Sunrise Monday:  7:49 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   5:55 PM CDT

Tim

Saturday, October 29, 2011

Weather Report for Saturday, October 29th, 2011: Clouds on the increase Tonight leading to some light rain for Sunday. Halloween still looks dry, just a tad cool for the little ones.

Issued at 3:57 PM CDT, Saturday, October 29th, 2011

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Another chilly Morning with low temperatures ranging from 17 degrees at International Falls.  19 degrees at Hibbing, Bigfork and Pine River.  20 degrees at Hayward and Winter.  Bruno bottomed out at 22 degrees while the Duluth Airport and Superior had a low of 25 degrees.  A stubborn area of low clouds along with some fog (freezing fog in some spots) affected Northern portions of Koochiching, St. Louis, Lake and Cook Counties Minnesota This Morning and early This Afternoon.  This area of low clouds pushed north into Ontario Province by mid to late Afternoon.  Skies outside of far Northern Minnesota were sunny to partly cloudy Today with near to slightly above average temperatures for the end of October.  Highs ranged from the upper 30s in the International Falls, Crane Lake and Ely, Minnesota areas with upper 40s to lower 50s common elsewhere.  Winds were calm or from the south at 5 to around 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Zonal flow continues across the Upper Midwest with Friday's pocket of cold air aloft, upper level low/trough passing through the Central-Eastern Great Lakes and Eastern Canada Today per water vapor satellite imagery.  The next system taking aim at the Upper Midwest was over the Manitoba Lakes and the Dakotas This Afternoon.  This system has an area of 90 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls associated with it per RUC model analysis, but as is often the case with storms coming out of Western Canada it lacks moisture.

Tonight:

Increasing cloudiness will take place across our area with some light rain possibly developing Overnight mainly in Western-Southern areas.  The Arrowhead, far Northern Minnesota and most of Northwest Wisconsin should stay dry Tonight.  Low temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s with winds becoming east at under 15 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

Low pressure will pass west-south of the Northland on Sunday, this low will exit to our east for Sunday Night.  Looks somewhat unsettled on Sunday with some light rain affecting Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota with a slight chance of rain for the Arrowhead, Iron Range and far Northern Minnesota.  850mb temperatures of zero to around -2 degrees C combined with wet bulb temperatures remaining above zero degrees C should keep the bulk of this precipitation on Sunday in the form of rain, but higher elevated areas, inland from Lake Superior could see some wet snow mix in with the rain, especially during the Morning hours...Little if any snow accumulation is expected though at this time.  Mostly cloudy skies are expected on Sunday with highs in the 30s and 40s with east or north winds at 5 to around 20 mph.  Light rain could linger into Sunday Evening in Northwest Wisconsin with dry weather returning to that area late Sunday Night.  Northern-Eastern Minnesota should be dry Sunday Night.  Low temperatures are forecasted to be in the 20s and 30s with north or east winds under 15 mph.

Note:  Rainfall totals from late Tonight through Sunday Afternoon for Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin should range from 0.05-0.20".

Extended Forecast:

Dry weather is expected for Monday and Monday Night, highs will be in the 40s to around 50 degrees with lows mainly in the 30s.  A cold front will drop southeast and through our area for Tuesday-early Wednesday, some light rain could develop as this front comes through, but right now this doesn't look like a big rain producer.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Tuesday Night mainly in the 30s.  Mid to late week looks pretty tranquil at the moment. 

Next weekend (November 5th-7th) could feature a storm coming out of the Rockies or Plains per Today's GFS and EUROPEAN model runs, right now the track of this potential storm is forecasted to be west of Minnesota, as a result it looks like it would be a rain maker for Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with the snow confined to the Dakotas and possibly Westcentral Minnesota.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Increasing cloudiness.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind becoming east around 12 mph.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  Light rain at times.  The rain could mix with snow during the Morning inland from Lake Superior.  High 38 to 43.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of precipitation 60%.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy early.  Some clearing late.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.

.HALLOWEEN...  Partly cloudy.  High 45 to 50.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 33 to 38.

.Tuesday...  Considerable cloudiness.  High 45 to 50.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Light rain possible.  Low 35 to 40.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday...  Variable cloudiness.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  45 degrees
Low:  30 degrees

Sunrise Sunday:  7:47 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   5:56 PM CDT

Tim

Friday, October 28, 2011

Weather Report for Friday, October 28th, 2011. Spotty Evening showers, flakes/ice pellets. Dry Saturday. Light rain west-south Saturday Night-Sunday. Halloween looks dry with near average temps.

Issued at 4:25 PM CDT, Friday, October 28th, 2011

A couple snowfall reports from Thursday, October 27th, 2011.
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  1.0"
Butternut, WI:  1.0"
Finland, MN:  0.1"

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A chilly start to the day with widespread 20s and even some teens in our area, some of the colder lows This Morning include:  Hayward, WI:  21 degrees.  Silver Bay, MN:  19 degrees.  Grand Marais, MN:  19 degrees.  Superior, WI:  21 degrees.  Embarrass, MN:  16 degrees.  An area of low pressure was centered to our north This Afternoon with a trough attached to this low passing through the Northland This Morning and early This Afternoon.  This system brought a few showers to our area Today with some snow and sleet mixed in with the rain in some spots.  The precipitation associated with this frontal boundary exited to our east by early Afternoon, then we saw some instability showers develop during the Afternoon due to cold air aloft (-34 degree C 500mb temps) and some milder temps at the surface, this combined with steep lapse rates approaching 9.0 c/km, CAPE around 200 j/kg and Lifted Indices close to zero degrees C resulted in these popcorn type showers that developed in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Afternoon.  High temperatures Today were in the middle 40s to lower 50s south of Highway 2 and in the mid 30s to low 40s in Northern Minnesota into the Arrowhead.  Winds Today were out of the northwest or southwest at 5 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest with an upper level low churning southeast out of Southern Ontario Province per water vapor satellite imagery.  This system is associated with 30-60 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls Today across the Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight:

Surface and upper level low will remain to our north/east.  Scattered showers of rain, snow and sleet will taper off This Evening.  A few spots up north could pick up a light dusting of snow in the most vigorous showers during the Evening.  Looks dry Overnight with skies becoming partly cloudy.  Lows will be in the 20s and 30s with some teens possible in the traditional cold spots.  Winds will be out of the northwest or west under 20 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

Dry weather is forecasted Tomorrow with partly cloudy to sunny skies.  Temps will be close to average with highs in the 40s to around 50 degrees.  Winds will be out of the south or west under 15 mph.  Clouds will be on the increase Saturday Night as low pressure heads toward the Northern Plains.  Some light rain or mixed rain and snow could move into Western-Southwest parts of our area, including the Cass Lake, Walker, Brainerd and Aitkin areas.  Low temperatures Tomorrow Night will be in the 20s and 30s with winds becoming east at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will pass south/east of our area from Sunday into early Monday.  Some light rain is possible on Sunday for Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, some of the rain could mix with snow especially early in the day.  Most if not all of the precipitation on Sunday is expected to remain south of Highway 2 based on lasted model projections.  Dry weather returns to Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Sunday Night into Monday Night.  Highs on Sunday will be mainly in the 40s with lows Sunday Night in the 20s and 30s.  Highs for Halloween will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Monday Night mainly in the 30s.

Not much going on for next week...Cold front will push southeast across the Upper Midwest during the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, any meaningful rainfall should remain south of our area near the deeper moisture and near a possible low pressure wave that may form and move along this front.  Could be a system for next weekend (November 4th-7th) time frame, but there is considerable spread on the track, timing and intensity of this potential low per long range computer models.

Note:  Rainfall totals in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin are expected to remain under 0.10" for Saturday Night and Sunday with little or no accumulation of snow expected at this time.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Spotty showers before 7PM.  Variable clouds This Evening.  Mostly clear Overnight.  Low 26 to 31.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 45 to 50.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Increasing cloudiness.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind becoming east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  Light rain possible.  High 40 to 45.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.HALLOWEEN...  Partly cloudy.  High 45 to 50.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 33 to 38.

.Tuesday...  Considerable cloudiness.  High 45 to 50.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  46 degrees
Low:  31 degrees

Sunrise Saturday:  7:46 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   5:58 PM CDT

Tim

Thursday, October 27, 2011

Weather Report for Thursday, October 27th, 2011. More snow/rain showers arrive late Tonight and linger into Friday. Dry Saturday ahead. Halloween looks pretty good at the moment.

Issued at 4:14 PM CDT, Thursday, October 27th, 2011

*Minnesota drought update as of October 25th, 2011*
Source:  Climate Prediction Center.

80% of Minnesota is abnormally dry.
32% of Minnesota is under moderate drought conditions.
17% of Minnesota is under severe drought conditions.

October 2011 climate check for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Average monthly temperature thru the 26th:  50.2 degrees
Departure from average:  +6.0 degrees

Monthly precipitation total thru the 26th:  1.02"
Departure from average:  -1.45"

Weather History:

On this date last year, 4.3" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota (on top of the hill)

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A changeable day across the area with a mixture of clouds and sun with spotty showers of rain, sleet and snow.  A pool of cold air aloft with temperatures at 18,000 feet running from -28 to -34 degrees C combined with some "warming" near the surface made the atmosphere quite unstable once again Today and this led to the development of these popcorn type showers that we saw Today.  Precipitation totals have been light, generally under one tenth of an inch with some locations picking up a quick quarter to one inch of snow, especially earlier in the day when the surface temperature was colder.  High temperatures Today were generally in the upper 30s to upper 40s with some middle 30s in far Northeast Minnesota.  Winds Today were out of the west or north under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Zonal flow covered the Northern U.S. per water vapor satellite imagery with a powerhouse 120-140 knot jet stream covering the Ohio Valley and Northeast U.S. per RUC model analysis.  The most active weather Today occurred in the Southern U.S. into the Northeast U.S. where some snow has been falling in North Texas and also in portions of Pennsylvania and New York.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight:

Pop-up showers of rain, sleet and snow will end between 7-9pm This Evening.  The next disturbance embedded in this zonal flow will move into Northcentral Minnesota late Tonight and bring with it some snow or mixed snow and rain showers.  Low temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s with winds turning to the south or west under 15 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

Low pressure will pass north of our area with a cold front attached to this low passing through the Upper Midwest on Friday.  Scattered showers of snow and rain will be found in our area on Friday with the potential for a dusting to one inch of snow accumulation in some locations, mainly Tomorrow Morning.  Highs on Friday with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies will be in the 40s with some 30s possible in Northern areas.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.  It looks dry Tomorrow Night with skies becoming partly cloudy.  Winds during this period will shift from the southwest to the west-northwest with wind speeds generally less than 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Dry weather is expected for Saturday with high temperatures mainly in the 40s.  Saturday Night through Sunday Evening will feature an area of low pressure passing west-south of Northern Minnesota, this system won't be able to tap into very much moisture, but there should be enough moisture to generate some areas of light rain or a rain/snow mix for late Saturday Night and Sunday mainly affecting Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin based on latest model data.  Low temperatures Saturday Night will mainly be in the 30s with highs on Sunday in the 40s with lows Sunday Night in the 20s and 30s.  Early next week looks dry at this time with near to slightly above average temperatures expected.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Spotty rain, sleet or snow showers before 7PM.  Rain or snow showers re-developing after 4AM.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Variable cloudiness.  Snow or rain showers possible during the Morning.  Rain showers possible during the Afternoon.  High 41 to 46.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of precipitation 40% early and 30% in the Afternoon.

.Friday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 28 to 33.  Wind west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 45 to 50.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  46 degrees
Low:  31 degrees

Sunrise Friday:  7:45 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   6:00 PM CDT

Tim





Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Weather Report for Wednesday, October 26th, 2011. Scattered mostly light rain showers thru the weekend, could be a bit of snow at night/Morning hours. Near average temps into Sunday.

Issued at 7:29 PM CDT, Wednesday, October 26th, 2011

Note:  On this date in 1996 a total of 14 tornadoes were reported in Minnesota.  The first tornado touched down one minute after 3PM CDT at Barry, Minnesota (Big Stone County) This tornado was rated an F0 and was on the ground for 1 mile.  The last tornado reported during this outbreak touched down at 7PM CDT, 21 miles northeast of Brainerd, Minnesota (Crow Wing County) That tornado was rated an F2 and was on the ground for 3/4 mile.  Source:  NWS Chanhassen, Minnesota.

Minnesota Tornado ratings on October 26th, 1996:

F0:  2
F1:  7
F2:  5

Other tornadoes were reported in Nebraska (3) and South Dakota (9)  A grand total of 26 tornadoes were reported in the Northcentral U.S. on October 26th, 1996.

One year ago Today a massive storm tore through the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

*All time low pressure record occurred in Minnesota* 

5:13 PM CDT 10/26/10:  Bigfork, Minnesota.  955.2mb/28.21".  The previous low pressure record occurred on November 10th, 1998 at both Albert Lea and Austin, Minnesota 962.7mb/28.43".

Quick facts:

*3.25" of precipitation fell at Duluth, Minnesota between October 26th-27th.
*7.7" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota on the 26th and 27th.
*176 severe weather reports/3 tornadoes in the U.S. on October 25th.  (SPC)
*402 severe weather reports/57 tornadoes in the U.S. on October 26th.  (SPC)

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Partly to mostly cloudy skies were found in our area with scattered Afternoon showers.  500mb temperatures were down to around -32 degrees C Today in Northern Minnesota, and this combined with some warming at the surface led to these popcorn type showers This Afternoon.  There was even enough instability present to cause a few thunderstorms Today, especially in Northwestern Minnesota.  High temperatures Today were right around seasonal averages with readings in the mid 40s to low 50s.  Winds were variable under 15 mph.  Temperatures as of 7PM ranged from 28 degrees at Crane Lake, Minnesota to 46 degrees at the Duluth Harbor.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb trough extends from Central Canada through the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Central Plains with a 120-130 knot upper level jet extending from Southeast South Dakota to Central Quebec Province per RUC model analysis.  A vigorous system with 150 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls was plowing east through Western Canada This Evening per water vapor satellite imagery.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight:

Scattered rain showers will continue across our area with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Critical thickness values are low enough as are the 850mb temperatures to support some frozen precipitation, however, surface temperatures should remain warm enough for mostly liquid precipitation in most areas, but there will probably be some snow mixing in with the rain Overnight, mainly in Northcentral Minnesota.  No snow accumulations are expected though.  Lows Tonight will be in the 20s and 30s with variable winds under 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

An area of cold air aloft and an upper level disturbance will be working E-SE out of Minnesota on Thursday.  Scattered rain showers will occur on Thursday in Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast Minnesota with some snow possibly mixing in with the rain, mainly before Noon.  Northern Minnesota should stay dry Tomorrow.  Highs on Thursday will mainly be in the 40s, but some spots in the Arrowhead could hold in the 37-39 degree range.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecasted during this period with winds out of the west or north under 15 mph.  A new disturbance will approach the area by Thursday Night which could bring a few rain and or snow showers to west-northwest parts of our area.

Extended Forecast:

W-NW flow and a parade of disturbances will continue to affect the Upper Midwest from Friday into Sunday.  None of these systems look very strong and this plus a lack of moisture should prevent any widespread or significant precipitation from occurring in our area...Instead will likely see occasional light rain showers which could mix with snow at times mainly at night and during the Morning hours.  High temperatures for Friday and Saturday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Friday Night and Saturday Night in the 20s and 30s.

There are some trends showing up per long range EUROPEAN and GFS computer models of a more organized system taking shape somewhere in the Plains or Rockies late next week or next weekend, November 4th-7th time frame, so something could be brewing looking out a week or so, but until then it looks pretty tame in the Upper Midwest.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  A few rain showers possible.  Low 32 to 37.  Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Variable cloudiness.  A few rain showers possible, mainly during the Morning.  High 42 to 47.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Variable cloudiness.  Showers possible.  High 40 to 45.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 28 to 33.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 40 to 45.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  46 degrees
Low:  31 degrees

Sunrise Thursday:  7:43 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   6:01 PM CDT

Tim





Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Weather report for Tuesday, October 25th, 2011. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS EVENING S/SE OF THE TWIN PORTS...SHOWERS DOT THE NORTHLAND MID WEEK THRU THE WEEKEND, COULD BE SOME SNOWFLAKES AT NIGHT/MORNING HOURS.

Issued at 4:26 PM CDT, Tuesday, October 25th, 2011

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure has been moving east across Iowa with a strong warm front attached to this low centered in Southern Wisconsin.  Temperatures south of this warm front were in the 70s and 80s in Iowa, Illinois, Missouri and far Southern Wisconsin Today while northeast winds and mostly cloudy skies north of this warm front kept high temperatures in the 40s in our area which is right around average for this time of year.  Some light rain and drizzle did occur Today mainly south of a line from Brainerd to Moose Lake to Mercer with dry conditions elsewhere.  Winds Today were out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

W/SW 500mb flow was in place over the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery with a strong baroclinic zone (temperature contrast) in place with Afternoon 850mb temperatures of -8 degrees C in Central Canada to zero degrees C in Northern Minnesota to +8 degrees C in far Southeast Minnesota to +16 degrees C in Central Missouri per RUC model analysis.  One system was moving east through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Today while another system digs southeast into the Northern Plains.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight:

Low pressure will move into Northern Illinois.  Some light rain and drizzle will continue especially This Evening in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota, the bulk of this precipitation should remain south of Highway 2.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecasted Tonight with lows mainly in the 30s, but some 20s are possible in far Northern Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the north, east or northwest under 20 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

The system currently moving into the Dakotas will head toward the Upper Midwest during this period.  Some rain showers should affect Northcentral Minnesota Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with a lesser chance for showers for Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the 40s and 50s with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies.  By Wednesday Night, the surface temperature may cool enough to cause a mix of rain and snow in Northern Minnesota, but no accumulation of snow is anticipated at this time.  Lows Wednesday Night will be mainly in the 30s with mostly cloudy skies.  Winds during this period will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

No big storms are expected through the weekend.  A northwest, or west-northwest upper level flow will continue into the weekend with a couple of weak systems tracking through the Upper Midwest.  There will be a risk for some showers from Thursday through Sunday, but none of the precipitation is expected to be heavy or widespread.  Temperatures at night and during the Morning hours could become cold enough to support a snow/rain mix in some spots with a light dusting of snow possibly accumulating if precipitation can turn to all snow.  High temperatures for Thursday and Friday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Thursday Night and Friday Night in the 20s and 30s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 33 to 38.  Wind northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 45 to 50.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Rain showers or a mix of rain and snow showers possible late.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday...  Variable cloudiness.  Rain showers or a mix of rain and snow showers possible.  High 40 to 45.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Friday...  Variable cloudiness.  Sprinkles or flurries possible.  High 40 to 45.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 27 to 32.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  47 degrees
Low:  32 degrees

Wednesday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  Low
Tree:    None
Grass:  None

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:42 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   6:03 PM CDT

Tim

Monday, October 24, 2011

10/24/11: Monday's Weather Report. COULD BE SOME RAIN AT TIMES TONIGHT-TUESDAY FROM DULUTH TO EC MN AND NW WI. MID-LATE WEEK, NO BIG PRECIP EVENTS, BUT FLAKES/SPRINKLES CAN'T BE RULED OUT FROM TIME TO TIME. ALL IN ALL IT REMAINS PRETTY QUIET (WEATHERWISE) AROUND HERE.

Issued at 7:06 PM CDT, Monday, October 24th, 2011

Rainfall report for Sunday, October 23rd, 2011.
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth, MN:  0.33"
Brainerd, MN:  0.18"
Ashland, WI:  0.25"
Hayward, WI:  0.16"
Madeline Island, WI:  0.25"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  0.29"

Weather History:

On this date in 1998:  A record high temperature of 71 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
On this date in 1995:  1.7" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

*Northern areas stay dry thru Tuesday Night
*Light rain possible at times for southern areas thru late Tuesday Afternoon
*Near average temperatures into mid-week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Partly cloudy to sunny skies prevailed in our area Today with high temperatures in the middle 40s to middle 50s.  Winds were out of the north or west under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A near zonal flow (west to east) covered the Northern tier of the U.S. while an upper level trough shifts E-SE out of the Pacific Northwest per water vapor satellite imagery.  120 knot upper level jet was over Northern Minnesota early This Evening per RUC model analysis and this jet was seperating -4 to -6 degree C 850mb temperatures in Central Canada to +20 to +26 degree C 850mb temperatures from Central Nebraska to the Southern Rockies.

Tonight:

Low pressure stretching from the Northern Rockies to Western High Plains will shift into Eastern Nebraska by dawn.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area with some light rain or sprinkles possible at times mainly along and south of Highway 2.  Lows will be in the 30s and 40s with some 20s in far Northern Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the north or east under 15 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

An area of low pressure will move east from Nebraska to Northcentral Illinois while high pressure centers itself to our north-northeast.  Some light rain or sprinkles is expected in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota on Tuesday with dry conditions in Northern Minnesota.  Highs on Tuesday will mainly be in the 40s.  Dry weather will return for the entire area Tuesday Night under partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Lows will be in the 30s with some 20s possible in Northern Minnesota.  Winds during this period will be out of the north, northwest or east up to 20 mph.

Note:  Rainfall totals from late Tonight thru Tuesday could reach 0.10-0.25" in Northwest Wisconsin with amounts generally under 0.10" in Eastcentral Minnesota, including the Brainerd Lakes, Twin Ports and I35 corridor.

Extended Forecast:

Could be a few rain showers or mixed rain/snow showers in our area from Wednesday through Friday as a couple disturbances drop down into the Upper Midwest on a NW flow aloft, none of these systems look strong at this time, so any precipitation that does occur from mid to late week will be scattered and quite light.  High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will generally be in the 40s with lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night in the 20s and 30s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few light rain showers or sprinkles possible Overnight.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind north to northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Considerable cloudiness.  Light rain possible.  High 43 to 48.  Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 50%.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 32 to 36.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 45 to 50.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Thursday...  Variable cloudiness.  Sprinkles or flurries possible.  High 40 to 45.

.Thursday Night...  Variable cloudiness.  Sprinkles or flurries possible.  Low 30 to 35.

.Friday...  Variable cloudiness.  Sprinkles or flurries possible.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  47 degrees
Low:  32 degrees

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:40 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   6:04 PM CDT

Tim

Saturday, October 22, 2011

10/22/11: Saturday's Weather Report. PUDDLES FORM LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY. DRY MONDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT IS A "D" FOR TUESDAY.

Issued at 4:10 PM CDT, Saturday, October 22nd, 2011

WEATHER HEADLINES:

*Scattered showers/isolated t'storms Tonight thru Sunday Evening
*Near to above average temperatures into Monday
*Cooler temps arrive Tuesday and linger most of next week
*Possible rain system Tuesday-early Wednesday?

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

An area of low clouds and fog developed early in the Morning in parts of St. Louis, Lake and Cook Counties Minnesota, this burned off leaving behind a sunny Afternoon.  The rest of our area saw mostly sunny or sunny skies Today.  High temperatures ranged from the middle to upper 40s in the Arrowhead with 50s to near 60 degrees elsewhere.  Winds were out of the southwest, north or northwest under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

W/NW 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.  Powerhouse 150 knot upper level jet covered Southwestern Canada with a west-east H5 flow in the Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies.  A couple of low pressure systems are tracking from the Northwest U.S. to the Upper Midwest in this fast flow regime.

Tonight through Sunday Night:

Low pressure will pass by to our north with a couple cold fronts pushing east-southeast through our area.  A 35-45 knot SW low level jet will develop late Tonight ahead of the first cold front, this combined with some warm air advection and weak instability with CAPE <250 j/kg will lead to some rain showers and isolated thunderstorms in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  It looks like a 1-3 hour window of opportunity for rain Tonight in any given location.  The rain chance will arrive in western areas, including International Falls, Bigfork, Cass Lake, Walker, Leader and Brainerd between 9-11pm Tonight.  Rain chance will spread into Eastern Minnesota, Iron Range, North Shore and Arrowhead regions between Midnight-2am.  It will then reach Northwestern Wisconsin toward 3-4am.

Some showers could linger into Sunday Morning in Northwest Wisconsin with mainly dry conditions elsewhere.  The chance for some more showers or isolated thunderstorms will arrive Sunday Afternoon into Sunday Evening across our area.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecasted during this period.  Lows Tonight will be in the 30s and 40s with highs on Sunday in the 50s and 60s.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees.  Winds will be out of the south, west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Note:  Rainfall amounts from Tonight through Sunday Evening should generally be around 0.10" or less with isolated spots picking up a quarter inch of rain.

Extended Forecast:

Monday looks dry at this time with high temperatures in the 40s and 50s with lows Monday Night mainly in the 30s.  Not much model agreement is seen for Tuesday-early Wednesday.  00z/12z EURO, UK, GEM-GLOBAL and JAPAN models have a more developed low pressure system heading E-NE out of Southeast South Dakota while the NAM and GFS show a much weaker and farther south track to a low for Tuesday-Wednesday.

The more developed/farther north model solutions would give our area a better chance for rain Tuesday and Tuesday Night, in fact the rain could mix with or end as flurries or some snow, but right now it doesn't look like there would be any accumulating snow out of this system.

The farther south and weaker model solutions would result in a much lower rain chance for our area.

High temperatures on Tuesday will mainly be in the 40s with lows Tuesday Night in the 20s and 30s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear into mid-Evening.  Becoming mostly cloudy by late Evening.  Occasional showers Overnight.  A thunderstorm also possible.  Low 38 to 43.  Wind becoming south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 60% after Midnight.

.Sunday...  Variable cloudiness.  Showers possible during the Afternoon.  High 55 to 60.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Sunday Night...  Showers possible early.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Tuesday...  Considerable cloudiness.  Rain possible.  High 43 to 48.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Rain possible early.  Low 32 to 36.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  49 degrees
Low:  33 degrees

Sunday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  Low
Tree:    None
Grass:  None

Note:  Duluth-Superior Harbor water temperature as of October 22nd:  49.6 degrees.

Sunrise Sunday:  7:38 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   6:08 PM CDT

Tim

Friday, October 21, 2011

10/21/11: Friday's Weather Report. STOKE UP THE BBQ IT'S PACKERS vs VIKINGS WEEKEND! RAIN CHANCE SAT.NIGHT-SUN, MAYBE A T'STORM? LATEST DROUGHT UPDATE FOR MINNESOTA. STORM FOR NEXT WEEK CRAPS OUT WITH TODAY'S MODELS.

Issued at 4:40 PM CDT, Friday, October 21st, 2011

Very cold start to the day across the Northland.  Frost was widespread even close to Lake Superior This Morning.  Embarrass, Minnesota was just 4 degrees shy of the single digits Today!

Low temperature report for Friday, October 21st, 2011.
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth, MN:  24 degrees
International Falls, MN:  19 degrees
Brainerd, MN:  25 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  16 degrees
Hayward, WI:  20 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN:  30 degrees
Two Harbors, MN:  23 degrees
Silver Bay, MN:  18 degrees
Ely, MN:  19 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  19 degrees
Superior, WI:  25 degrees
Siren, WI:  23 degrees
Northome, MN:  25 degrees
Babbitt, MN:  16 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  13 degrees
Floodwood, MN:  19 degrees
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  19 degrees
Butternut, WI:  24 degrees
Winter, WI:  20 degrees

*Minnesota drought update as of October 18th, 2011*
Source:  Climate Prediction Center.

80% of Minnesota is abnormally dry.
31% of Minnesota is in moderate drought.
14% of Minnesota is in severe drought.

Severe drought conditions exist in Southern Minnesota, and also in portions of far Northern and Northeastern Minnesota.

Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location) monthly and seasonal precipitation total update.

October 1st-20th precipitation total:  0.67"
Average:  1.99"
Departure from average:  -1.32"

September 1st-October 20th precipitation total:  2.15"
Average:  6.10"
Departure from average:  -3.95"

Weather Tidbits:

*Low temperature This Morning of 24 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota is the coldest minimum temperature recorded so far this month. 

*24 degree low temperature on October 21st is the coldest low temperature since September 16th when the temperature dropped to 32 degrees and was the first time since September 15th with a minimum temperature under 32 degrees.

*The period from October 2010 thru September 2011 was the driest 12 month period in Texas history.  (Paul Douglas.  St. Cloud Times)

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Quiet weather thru Saturday Evening with near average temperatures
-Some showers late Saturday Night thru late Sunday Afternoon, maybe a rumble of thunder?
-Overall it's a dry/fairly quiet weather pattern for the area into next week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 1010mb was tracking across Northern Ontario Province with a cold front attached to this low heading east-southeast out of Northwestern Minnesota.  Partly cloudy to sunny skies covered our area Today with temperatures returning to above average levels for this time of year.  Highs Today were generally in the 50s with a few locales reaching 60 degrees!  Note:  High temperatures climbed a good 30 to 40 degrees from This Morning's low temperatures in our area.  Winds Today were out of the south or west at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

W-NW 500mb flow was in place over the Upper Midwest with a couple weather systems heading E-SE through the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies and Northern Plains per water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight:

A cold front will move through our area This Evening, only affect from this front will be a wind shift from the southwest to northwest.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will occur Tonight with lows in the 30s with some 20s in Northern Minnesota.  Wind speeds will range from 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph possible.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

Weak area of high pressure will provide the area with dry weather and partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies for Saturday, highs will be in the 40s and 50s with northwest winds at 5 to 20 mph.  The next low pressure system and cold front to affect our weather will move in late Saturday Night...Some showers could spread into Northcentral Minnesota late Tomorrow Night, otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 30s and 40s.  Winds will be out of the south or west under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Scattered showers are forecasted on Sunday as low pressure passes by to our north with a cold front and trough pushing southeast through the Upper Midwest.  Note:  Some of the models are showing some instability developing on Sunday which could lead to a few thunderstorms, although this chance looks fairly low at this time.  Dry weather should return Sunday Night into Monday Night.  High temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s for Sunday and Monday, a few spots could even get into the lower 60s on Sunday.  Lows Sunday Night and Monday Night will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees.

The system for the early-middle part of next week doesn't look as impressive Today as it did in previous days.  If a low does develop it looks like it would track well to our south/east, so chances for a widespread and significant amount of precipitation for Minnesota seems slim at this point.  In fact most of next week should feature a NW upper level flow with little threat of a big storm for the Upper Midwest based on latest model guidance.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Low 32 to 37.  Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.  Wind northwest to north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers possible after Midnight.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Sunday...  Showers at times.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 55 to 60.  Chance of rain 60% early and 30% during the Afternoon.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Tuesday...  Considerable cloudiness.  High 43 to 48.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  49 degrees
Low:  33 degrees

Saturday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  Low
Tree:    None
Grass:  None

Sunrise Saturday:  7:36 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   6:09 PM CDT

Tim

Thursday, October 20, 2011

10/20/11: Thursday's Weather Report...LOOKING GOOD THRU SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCE SAT.NIGHT/SUN. NEXT TUE-WED STORM THREAT, MAYBE SOME SNOW?

Issued at 4:15 PM CDT, Thursday, October 20th, 2011

30 day outlook for November 2011.
Source:  Climate Prediction Center.

Duluth, Minnesota:

33% chance of Above Average Temperatures.
Equal chance of Above, Below or Average Precipitation.

90 day outlook for November 2011 thru January 2012.
Source:  Climate Prediction Center.

Duluth, Minnesota:

Equal chances of Above, Below or Average Temperatures.
33% chance of Above Average Precipitation.

Winter 2011-12 outlook (December-February)
Source:  NOAA/NWS.

Duluth, Minnesota:

40% chance of Below Average Temperatures.
33% chance of Above Average Precipitation.

Weather Tidbits:

*High temperature of 41 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota on October 18th was the coldest maximum temperature since May 2nd when the high temperature was 40 degrees.

*Rainfall totals from Wednesday, October 19th, 2011 (NWS Duluth, MN)  Gile, WI:  0.70"; Upson, WI:  0.53";  4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  0.10"; Butternut, WI:  0.10".

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Clear/crisp night ahead
-Near to slightly above average temperatures Friday thru the weekend
-Risk for showers Saturday Night-Sunday
-Storm threat early/middle part of next week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure averaging 990mb was passing through Lake Huron late This Afternoon with high pressure averaging 1018mb extending from Western Ontario Province through the Central Plains.  Clouds earlier in the day gave way to increasing amounts of sunshine across all but Ashland, Iron and Price Counties Wisconsin This Afternoon.  High temperatures were in the 40s to around 50 degrees.  Winds were out of the north at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph, mainly in Northwest Wisconsin.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A powerful storm system was lifting N-NE across the Eastern Great Lakes into Eastern Canada Today per water vapor satellite imagery.  RUC model analysis indicates a northerly upper level flow in wake of this storm across the Upper Midwest.  Powerhouse 130-150 knot upper level jet covered the Northeast U.S. with 120-150 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls in that area per RUC model analysis.  To our west, a zonal flow was developing, and this will spread into the Upper Midwest in coming days.

Tonight:

Clear to partly cloudy skies are forecasted in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with patchy late night fog possible.  Lows will be in the 20s and 30s with north or west winds under 15 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

High pressure moves off to our east which will allow a cold front to pass through our area during this period.  Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected Tomorrow with highs in the 40s and 50s.  Partly cloudy skies are on tap Tomorrow Night with lows mainly in the 30s.  Winds will be out of the south, west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Friday's cold front exits to our south/east on Saturday with the next low and cold front coming across the Upper Midwest from late Saturday Night into Sunday.  Looks dry on Saturday with highs in the 40s and 50s.  Some rain showers will move across the area from late Saturday Night into Sunday as that second cold front moves through.  Lows Saturday Night will mainly be in the 30s with highs on Sunday in the 40s and 50s with lows Sunday Night mainly in the 30s.

Long range forecast models are showing a storm system affecting the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes for the early to mid part of next week.  Exact details pertaining to the strength, track and timing of the low are a bit uncertain this far out in time, but the GFS, GLOBAL-GEM and EUROPEAN all show some sort of a low heading E-NE out of Nebraska during the Monday-Wednesday, October 24th-26th time frame.  Right now it appears that the bulk of the precipitation would fall as rain, although colder air moving in behind the low could cause the rain to mix with and change over to snow in parts of Minnesota some time Tuesday Night or Wednesday, with the possibility for a light coating of accumulation for some portions of Minnesota by next Wednesday.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Clear.  Low 27 to 32.  Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 33 to 38.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Variable cloudiness.  High 48 to 53.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 50 to 55.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 32 to 37.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 48 to 53.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  50 degrees
Low:  34 degrees

Friday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  Low
Tree:    None
Grass:  None

Sunrise Friday:  7:34 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   6:11 PM CDT

Tim







Wednesday, October 19, 2011

10/19/11: Wednesday's Weather Report. POWERFUL AUTUMN STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR SE TONIGHT&THURSDAY. 50s return on Friday! MIDDLE-END OF NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS VERY COLD (GFS MODEL)

Issued at 4:23 PM CDT, Wednesday, October 19th, 2011

Weather Tidbits:

*2 waterspouts Today over Southwest Lake Michigan.  9:27AM CDT, 3 miles east of Sheboygan, WI.  920AM CDT, 5 miles east-northeast of Oostburg, WI.  (NWS Milwaukee, WI)

*5 tornadoes reported on October 18th in Southeast Florida.  Strongest was an EF-2 (9:07PM), 3 miles north-northwest of Davie, Florida (Broward County)  Maximum winds:  120 mph.  Path Length:  1.1 miles.  Maximum width:  125 yards.  Up to 50 homes were damaged.  (SPC)

High temperature report for Tuesday, October 18th, 2011.
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Hibbing, MN:  39 degrees
Grand Marais, MN:  37 degrees
Ely, MN:  37 degrees
Orr, MN:  37 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  36 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  39 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  39 degrees
4 miles east of Island Lake, MN:  39 degrees
Kabetogama, MN:  38 degrees
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  36 degrees
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  37 degrees

WEATHER HEADLINES:

*Scattered lake effect showers along the South Shore thru Thursday Morning
*Cool temperatures into Thursday, bit of a warm-up on Friday
*Very cold temperatures possible the middle/end of next week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 990mb was centered between Cincinnati and Columbus, Ohio late This Afternoon with high pressure of 1024mb extending from Western Ontario Province to the Western High Plains.  Most of our area saw at least some sunshine Today, although there were periods of mostly cloudy skies, this was especially true near Lake Superior.  Scattered lake effect rain showers have been occurring Today along the South Shore of Lake Superior, affecting parts of Bayfield, Ashland, Iron and Eastern Douglas Counties.  High temperatures Today were in the 40s with north or east winds at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph across Northwest Wisconsin.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Strong storm system continued to develop near the Ohio Valley with a powerhouse 150 knot upper level jet located in Northeastern Georgia per RUC model analysis.  A large area of 120-150 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls covered the Southeast U.S. and Ohio Valley Today per RUC model analysis.  The Upper Midwest is under a N-NE upper level flow Today as this system tracks well to our east.

Tonight:

Low pressure will deepen to around 986mb as it tracks along the Indiana-Ohio state line.  This storm will produce storm and gale force winds across Lake Michigan, Lake Huron and parts of Lake Superior through Thursday Morning with high wind warning and advisories covering portions of Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois and Indiana with the threat for lakeshore flooding in the Chicago, Illinois area.  Widespread rain associated with this storm will remain well to the south/east of of our area Tonight, although a N/NE wind on the backside of this storm will maintain some lake effect rain showers along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin.  A few snowflakes could mix in with the rain showers away from Lake Superior and in higher elevation areas late Tonight.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area with lows in the 20s and 30s.  Winds will be out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph in Northwestern Wisconsin.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Low pressure of 986-990mb will reach Southeastern Michigan on Thursday, and Lake Huron by Thursday Night while high pressure stretches from Central Canada to the Central Plains.  Partly cloudy to partly sunny skies are forecasted Tomorrow with any lake effect rain showers along the South Shore of Lake Superior coming to an end during the Morning.  Clear to partly cloudy skies will occur Thursday Night.  Highs Tomorrow will mainly be in the 40s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s and 30s.  Winds during this period will be out of the north, northwest or northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A cold front is expected to move through the Upper Midwest on Friday, little if any rain will occur with this front.  Another cold front looks to pass through the area on Sunday, this one might bring a few showers to parts of our area late in the weekend.  High temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be near average levels in the 40s and 50s with low temperatures Friday Night and Saturday Night mainly in the 30s.

GFS model continues to bring a dose of very cold air down into the region for the middle/end of next week (Octotober 26th-28th) with high temperatures likely staying in the 20s and 30s if the GFS model verifies.  The EUROPEAN model has less of a cold air push, but this model also spins up an early-mid week storm which passes south/southeast of the Northland, right now it looks like temperatures would be warm enough for mostly a rain event, although some snow could mix in with the rain on the backside of the low.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Variable cloudiness.  Low 31 to 36.  Wind north to northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 43 to 48.  Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 28 to 33.  Wind west around 12 mph.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.

.Friday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 33 to 38.

.Saturday...  Variable cloudiness.  High 48 to 53.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 48 to 53.  Chance of rain 20%.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  50 degrees
Low:  34 degrees

Thursday's Pollen Forecast:

Tree:    Low
Weed:  Low
Grass:  None

Sunrise Thursday:  7:33 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   6:13 PM CDT

Tim



Tuesday, October 18, 2011

10/18/11: Tuesday's Weather Report. Layout change, done! Cool, Fall weather continues into Thursday. Lake effect rain/snow showers east of the Twin Ports Tonight-early Thursday. Early season arctic airmass possible middle/end of next week?

Issued at 7:49 PM CDT, Tuesday, October 18th, 2011

Weather History:

On this date in 2007:  2.66" of precipitation fell at Duluth, Minnesota.
On this date in 2002:  1.6" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

*Below to near average temperatures thru Thursday
*Lake effect rain/snow showers for the South Shore of Lake Superior from Tonight-early Thursday
*Overall it's a dry weather pattern for the area thru the weekend
*Big time push of cold air possible the middle/end of next week?

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Mainly gray skies (typical of Fall) and below average temperatures covered our area Today with highs only in the upper 30s to middle 40s.  A few areas of drizzle and light rain showers also affected parts of the area Today, but the rain didn't really add up to very much.  Winds were out of the north or northwest at 5-15 mph with some higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

N-NW 500mb flow was in place over the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery.  The big weather story in coming days will be the next powerful storm which is starting to take shape This Evening in the Southeast U.S.  100-120 knot upper level jet from the Northern Plains to Northern Texas is adding energy to this developing storm with 12 hour 500mb height falls of 60-90 meters occurring early This Evening from Northern Texas to Central Illinois per RUC model analysis.

Tonight through Wednesday Night:

Low pressure will reach the border of Ohio and Indiana by Wednesday Night with pressures dropping to around 988mb as the surface low lifts north out of the Southeast U.S.  All of the precipitation associated with this storm will remain well to our southeast, but a N/NE wind combined with 850mb temperatures of -2 to -4 degrees C and enough of a temperature difference between the surface and H85 temperatures will result in some lake effect rain showers along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin, including Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties with a few showers also possible for Douglas County Wisconsin.  Surface temperatures will remain marginal for pure snow, but enough cold air should be present for at least a mixture of snow and rain showers at times from late Tonight into Wednesday Night away from Lake Superior and in higher elevation areas.  Snowfall accumulations are not expected to be more than a light dusting the way it looks now while rainfall amounts of 0.10-0.25" could occur in spots that see more frequent lake effect showers.  Mostly cloudy skies will cover our area Tonight and Wednesday with partly to mostly cloudy skies for Wednesday Night.  High temperatures Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Tonight and Wednesday Night in the 20s and 30s.  Winds during this period will be out of the north or northeast at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph, especially in Northwest Wisconsin.

Extended Forecast:

Deep low pressure of around 984mb will move into Lake Huron by late Thursday Afternoon with high pressure covering the Central Plains.  A few lake effect rain or snow showers could linger into Thursday Morning along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin, otherwise it looks dry for our area from Thursday into Friday.  Highs on Thursday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Thursday Night in the 20s and 30s.  Southwest wind develops on Friday as high pressure moves off to our east.  High temperatures should get into the 40s and 50s with lows Friday Night mainly in the 30s.  A couple weather systems look to pass through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest from this weekend into early next week, none of these storms look very strong at this time, and moisture should be limited as well.  The bigger story could come the middle/end of next week (October 26th-28th) time period...That's when a slug of very cold air could come into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.  Early forecasts per GFS model shows 850mb temperatures dropping as low as -8 to -14 degrees C which could result in daytime highs not getting above freezing (32 degrees) and possibly even staying in the 20s for some areas.  There is also a chance that much of the Northland could see a light dusting of snow at some point next week as this cold air moves in.  Equally as impressive to this possible cold snap may be what happens Halloween weekend as a significant warm-up could return to the Upper Midwest on the final 1-3 days of October.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Areas of drizzle and light rain showers which could mix with snow, mainly away from Lake Superior.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 32 to 37.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday...  Considerable cloudiness.  Rain showers possible.  High 40 to 45.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 40 to 45.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 45 to 50.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 33 to 38.

.Saturday...  Variable cloudiness.  High 45 to 50.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  50 degrees
Low:  34 degrees

Wednesday's Pollen Forecast:

Tree:    Low
Weed:  None
Grass:  None

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:32 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   6:15 PM CDT

Tim

Monday, October 17, 2011

10/17/11: Monday's Weather Report. Climate Data for the 1st half of October. Sprinkles/flurries for some, lake effect showers of rain and snow for others. Cool week ahead.

Issued at 4:13 PM CDT, Monday, October 17th, 2011

October 1st-16th, 2011 climate data for select cities in Minnesota.
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Average monthly temperature:  55.8 degrees.  9.6 degrees above average.
Precipitation total:  1.00".  0.64" below average.

International Falls, Minnesota:

Average monthly temperature:  55.4 degrees.  11.2 degrees above average.
Precipitation total:  0.73".  0.46" below average.

Twin Cities, Minnesota:

Average monthly temperature:  63.9 degrees.  12.0 degrees above average.
Precipitation total:  0.68".  0.74" below average.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

*Near to below average temperatures expected during the next several days
*Chance of rain or snow showers thru mid-week especially along the South Shore of Lake Superior

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 988mb was centered near Southern Hudson Bay Canada.  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies covered northern areas while partly cloudy to sunny skies prevailed along and south of a line from Longville to Moose Lake to Hayward.  A few sprinkles or brief light showers have occurred in Northeast Minnesota Today with dry conditions elsewhere.  Winds Today were out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Today's 500mb analysis:

Northwest flow aloft continued over the Upper Midwest as a deep 500mb trough/low remain nearly stationary across eastern Canada.

Tonight through Tuesday Night:

Colder air will drop south into the Upper Midwest as an upper level trough develops across the region.  A few light showers of rain or snow are possible in spots through Tomorrow Night.  850mb temperatures will range from -2 to -8 degrees C through this period and this airmass going over Lake Superior should get some lake effect showers going along the South Shore of Lake Superior with favorable N-NW winds in place.  Precipitation should mainly be in liquid form close to Lake Superior while rain mixes with and possibly turns to snow for higher elevation areas away from Lake Superior.  Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin will be most at risk for seeing some of this precipitation.  Low temperatures Tonight will mainly be in the 30s.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s and 30s.  Northwest winds will continue at 10 to 20 mph through this period with a few higher gusts possible Tonight.

Extended Forecast:

A new storm system will take shape near the Ohio Valley by mid-week, this low will then lift N-NE into Eastern Canada later in the week.  The main impact out of this storm for the Upper Midwest will be a N-NW 500mb flow with cool October temperatures.  Highs for Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night in the 20s and 30s.  Some lake effect rain and snow showers should continue from Wednesday into early Thursday along the South Shore of Lake Superior, affecting Bayfileld, Ashland and Iron Counties Wisconsin, the remainder of our area should generally be dry the way it looks now.

Note:  Little if any snow accumulation is forecasted at this time in Northern Minnesota or Northern Wisconsin.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Sprinkles possible.  Low 33 to 38.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Tuesday...  Considerable cloudiness.  A few rain showers possible.  High 40 to 45.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Variable cloudiness.  Flurries or sprinkles possible.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 40 to 45.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 28 to 33.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 40 to 45.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 45 to 50.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  51 degrees
Low:  35 degrees

Tuesday's Pollen Forecast:

Tree:     Low
Weed:  None
Grass:   None

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:30 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   6:17 PM CDT

Tim

Saturday, October 15, 2011

10/15/11: Saturday's Weather Report. BRISK WINDS AT TIMES THRU MONDAY. CHILLY SHOT EARLY NEXT WEEK, SPRINKLES...FLURRIES...MY OH MY...

Issued at 4:54 PM CDT, Saturday, October 15th, 2011

Weather Tidbits:

*High temperature of 52 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location) on October 14th was the first time since October 1st with a below average high temperature.

*October 1st-7th precipitation total at Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)  Trace.  Average for that period of time is 0.79".  0.79" below average.

*October 8th-14th precipitation total at Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)  1.00".  Average for that period of time:  0.67".  0.33" above average.

*Twin Cities, Minnesota had the 2nd warmest October 1st-13th on record.  Average temperature during that time was 66.7 degrees.  The warmest October 1st-13th on record was 67.9 degrees which occurred in 1879.  Source:  Mark Seeley.  WeatherTalk blog.

*Nearly all communities in Minnesota have had their warmest start to October since either 1963 or 1938.  Source:  Pete Boulay.  Minnesota State Climate Office.

2011 severe weather stats.  (SPC)

Thru October 14th:  1,805 tornadoes (preliminary number) across the U.S.  The only states that have not had a tornado so far this year include:  Utah, Idaho, Vermont, and New Hampshire.

Alabama has had the most tornadoes thus far in 2011:  166.  Mississippi, 155.  North Carolina, 107.  Texas, 105.  Iowa, 68.  Wisconsin, 49.  Minnesota, 31.

Minnesota tornado information for 2011:  (SPC)

Note:  Strongest:  EF-2 (111-135 mph wind speeds)

Houston County:  May 22nd.
Lincoln County (near Tyler, MN)  July 1st.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

*Near average temperatures thru Monday
*Shot of colder air next Tuesday-Wednesday
*A few light showers possible the next couple days, maybe even some flakes early next week?

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Strong low pressure of 970mb was located just east of James Bay Canada late This Afternoon.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies were found in our area Today with near average temperatures for mid-October.  Highs Today ranged from the middle 40s to middle 50s with northwest winds at 10 to 25 mph with a few higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis show a W-NW 500mb flow covering the Upper Midwest.  A deep upper level trough was in place across Central-Eastern Canada and the Northeast U.S.  A rather strong baroclinic zone has developed Today with late Afternoon 850mb temperatures ranging from zero degrees C in Northern Minnesota to +10 degrees C in far Southeast South Dakota to +20 degrees C in Central Nebraska to +28 degrees C in Central Colorado.  Temperatures late This Afternoon ranged from 45 degrees at International Falls, Minnesota to 64 at Sioux Falls, South Dakota to 77 degrees at Grand Island, Nebraska.  Seperating the cooler and warmer air was a powerful jet stream of 120-130 knots over Montana and North Dakota.

Tonight:

Low pressure near James Bay Canada/Northern Ontario Province will deepen to 965-968mb.  This system will maintain a NW flow across our area while sneaking by to our southwest will be an upper level disturbance which will produce a few rain showers in Western-Southern Minnesota Tonight.  Majority of these light showers should remain south of our local area, although a few sprinkles can't be ruled out near the Brainerd Lakes and Pine City, Minnesota areas.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with lows in the 30s to lower 40s with some 20s possible in Northern Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the northwest or west at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph near Lake Superior.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

Deep low pressure of 971-976mb will continue to cover Northern Ontario Province during this period with the disturbance dropping southeast out of the Dakotas Tonight exiting the Upper Midwest on Sunday.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover the area during this period with a few light rain showers possible.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Tomorrow Night mainly in the 30s.  Winds for Sunday and Sunday Night will be out of the west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with occasional gusts to 30 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure heads into Eastern Canada early next week with an upper level trough digging and deepening over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.  High temperatures in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will be in the 40s and 50s on Monday with highs on Tuesday in the 30s and 40s.  Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.  There might be a few light showers around early next week, and as temperatures drop Monday Night through early Wednesday, some flurries or light snow showers could also occur over parts of our area.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Breezy.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind northwest to west at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Sunday...  Variable cloudiness.  Breezy.  High 46 to 51.  Wind west to northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Breezy.  Partly cloudy.  Low 33 to 38.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 45 to 50.

.Monday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Tuesday...  Variable cloudiness.  Sprinkles or flurries possible.  High 40 to 45.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  52 degrees
Low:  35 degrees

Sunday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  Low
Tree:    Low
Grass:  None

Sunrise Sunday:  7:28 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   6:20 PM CDT

Tim

Friday, October 14, 2011

10/14/11: Friday's Weather Report: ARROWHEAD/SOUTH SHORE FLAKES LATE TONIGHT-EARLY SAT? GUSTY WINDS THIS WEEKEND. BIG PATTERN SHIFT FROM LAST FRIDAY TO TODAY.

Issued at 5:16 PM CDT, Friday, October 14th, 2011

Rainfall report for Thursday, October 13th, 2011.
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Grand Marais, MN:  0.71"
Ashland, WI:  0.52"
Kabetogama, MN:  0.40"
Finland, MN:  0.40"
Butternut, WI:  2.22"
Madeline Island, WI:  0.91"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  0.29"

*GALE AND STORM WARNINGS HOISTED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, MN and Marquette, MI.

Gale Warning continues until 1PM CDT Saturday for Western Lake Superior with northwest gales expected.  Wave heights will range from 5 to 9 feet with the largest waves affecting the South Shore of Lake Superior.

Storm Warning is in effect for portions of Central and Eastern Lake Superior until 12AM CDT Saturday Night.  Northwest storm force winds are expected with wave heights of 23 to 36 feet!

Note:  Dramatic pattern shift from last Friday compared to this Friday.  SW upper level flow and near record warmth late last week has been replaced with a more typical Fall pattern with a NW 500mb flow and much lower heights resulting in cooler temperatures.

500mb heights last Friday, October 7th compared to Friday, October 14th (7AM)

International Falls, MN:  5760/5410
Minneapolis, MN:  5790/5450
Fargo, ND:  5680/5480

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

*First 1.0" or greater snowfall total last year occurred on October 26th-27th when 7.7" of snow fell.  Note:  This was part of the historic Great Lakes cyclone which battered the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes for a few days.

*In 2009, the first 1.0" or greater snowfall total occurred on October 10th when 1.0" of snow fell.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

*Gusty winds with near average temperatures thru the weekend
*Lingering light rain/drizzle for some areas Tonight-early Saturday
*Overall it's a dry weather pattern with a NW flow thru the middle of next week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Deep low pressure averaging 984mb has moved into Eastern Ontario Province late This Afternoon.  Light rain and drizzle continued Today in extreme Northeast Minnesota, affecting Cook County with some additional showers at times also affecting Ashland, Iron and far Northern Bayfield Counties in Northwest Wisconsin.  The remainder of our area stayed dry Today.  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies were common with temperatures a good 30 to 40 degrees colder compared to last Friday, but Today's high temperatures were actually closer to where they should be for mid-October.  Highs Today were in the mid 40s to mid 50s with upper 30s in the tip of the Arrowhead.  Northwesterly winds increased to 15 to 25 mph Today with some higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Powerful negatively tilted storm covered Lake Superior, Central-Eastern Canada as the upper level and surface lows move N-NW per water vapor satellite imagery.  Strong 12 hour 500mb height falls from 60-120 meters have shifted east of our area Today, while a potent 120+ upper level jet blasts SE through the Dakotas on the backside of this Fall storm.

Tonight:

Low pressure in Eastern Ontario Province will deepen to between 975-979mb.  Occasional light rain and drizzle will linger in far Northeast Minnesota and along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with lows in the 30s and 40s.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts from 30 to around 40 mph, especially near Lake Superior.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

Low pressure deepens further to between 967-973mb as it moves into Southern Hudson's Bay Canada.  Could be some drizzle or light rain showers on Saturday along the South Shore of Lake Superior and maybe some sprinkles in extreme Northeast Minnesota, otherwise this period looks dry.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecasted.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 40s to lower 50s with lows Saturday Night generally in the 30s.  Brisk northwest winds will continue this period with wind speeds of 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Note:  850mb temperatures falling to -1 to -4 degrees C combined with lowering thickness values may cause some of the light rain to mix with and change to wet snow at the highest elevation, away from Lake Superior late Tonight and Saturday Morning.  No snow accumulation is expected though.

Extended Forecast:

Deep low pressure sits and spins in Northern Ontario Province/Southern Hudson's Bay Canada from Sunday through the middle of next week.  Doesn't look like will see much in the way of precipitation in our area as a NW flow continues, but a few light showers can't be ruled out especially the early to middle part of next week, might even be a few snow flakes mixed in with any rain shower in some spots.  High temperatures for Sunday and Monday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Sunday Night and Monday Night mainly in the 30s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Windy.  Variable cloudiness.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

.Saturday...  Breezy.  Partly sunny.  High 46 to 51.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 45 to 50.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 33 to 38.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 47 to 52.

.Monday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Tuesday...  Variable cloudiness.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  52 degrees
Low:  35 degrees

Saturday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  Low
Tree:    Low
Grass:  None

Sunrise Saturday:  7:26 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   6:22 PM CDT

Tim



Thursday, October 13, 2011

10/13/11: Thursday's Weather Report (MUCH NEEDED RAIN FELL ACROSS THE NORTHLAND) STRONG NW WINDS FRI-SAT.

Issued at 7:02 PM CDT, Thursday, October 13th, 2011

Rainfall report for Wednesday, October 12th, 2011.
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth, MN:  0.49"
International Falls, MN:  0.45"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.38"
Hibbing, MN:  0.39"
Ashland, MN:  0.95"
Hayward, WI:  0.77"
Bruno, MN:  0.48"
12 miles north of Isle, MN:  0.44"
Cass Lake, MN:  0.31"
Littlefork, MN:  0.32"
Cook, MN:  0.55"
Embarrass, MN:  1.30"
Floodwood, MN:  0.60"
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  0.71"
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  0.53"
Butternut, WI:  0.77"
Park Falls, WI:  1.38"
Upson, WI:  1.43"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  0.82"
Winter, WI:  1.31"

Weather Tidbits:

-Today marks the 12th day in a row with an above average high temperature at Duluth, Minnesota.

-Rainfall total of 0.81" on October 12th is the heaviest calendar day rainfall total since August 2nd when 2.15" of rain fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

-October 12th was the 1st time since September 18th with at least a quarter inch of rain at Duluth, Minnesota.

*GALES POSSIBLE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, MN and Marquette, MI.

Gale warning has been issued for the North and South Shores of Lake Superior from 4PM CDT Friday until 1PM CDT Saturday.  Northwest gale event is expected for Western Lake Superior with peak wave heights of 6-8 feet.

Storm watch has been issued for parts of Central and Eastern Lake Superior for Friday Afternoon through Saturday Afternoon.  Northwest storm force winds are expected with peak wave heights ranging from 21 to as high as 37 feet!

Weather History:

On this date in 1997:  1.0" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

*Rain lingers into Friday Evening for extreme Northeast Minnesota
*Some showers at times in parts of Northwest Wisconsin into Friday
*Strong northwest winds for Friday and Saturday
*Brief cold snap early/mid part of next week, maybe a few flurries?

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure averaging 996mb was centered near Thunder Bay Ontario, Canada and near Green Bay, Wisconsin early This Evening.  Persistent light to moderate rain has been occurring Today in the Arrowhead of Minnesota while scattered showers affected other areas of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  High temperatures are much cooler compared to the last few weeks, but Today's temperatures are actually where they should be for mid-October.  Highs were in the 50s to around 60 degrees Today with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies along with northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Storm system is becoming negatively tilted over the Great Lakes This Evening per water vapor satellite imagery with a powerful 130 upper level jet located to the west-southwest of this storm from the Northern Rockies to Northern Nebraska per RUC model analysis.  An area of 60 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls covered parts of the Upper Midwest, Central and Northern Great Lakes Today as this system continues to deepen.

Tonight:

Low pressure to our north/east will deepen to around 991mb.  Far Northeast Minnesota will continue to get some rain Tonight while a few showers occur in the rest of Northeast Minnesota and in parts of Northwest Wisconsin.  Western areas, from International Falls to Grand Rapids, Cass Lake, Brainerd and Leader should be dry Tonight.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with lows in the 30s and 40s.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

Strong northwest winds develop during this period as low pressure deepens to around 982mb as it heads toward Eastern Lake Superior/Eastern Ontario Province.  850mb winds are forecast to increase to 40 to 50 knots which will result in surface wind speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts of 35 to 45 mph.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected for Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night.  Some light rain and drizzle will continue in far Northeast Minnesota and portions of Northwest Wisconsin through early Friday Evening with mainly dry conditions elsewhere.  Highs on Friday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Friday Night in the 30s to around 40 degrees.

Note:  Additional rainfall totals for Tonight through Friday Evening in Cook and Lake Counties Minnesota and for Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties Wisconsin will range from 0.05-0.25".

Extended Forecast:

Powerful low pressure ranging from 974 to 981mb will cover Eastern Canada this weekend, this low will then push W-NW into Hudson's Bay/Northern Ontario Province for the early-mid part of next week.  The period from Saturday through next Wednesday, October 15th-19th looks generally dry for Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, although a few light rain showers can't be ruled out on Saturday from the Brainerd Lakes to Pine City area as a weak system passes to our southwest/south.  A few sprinkles or flurries could then occur sometime between Monday-Wednesday of next week as an upper level trough digs into the Great Lakes, again though none of this precipitation looks heavy or widespread at this time.  High temperatures for Saturday and Sunday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night mainly in the 30s, but a few locations in Northern Minnesota could drop to the 20s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday...  Windy.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 46 to 51.  Wind northwest at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

.Friday Night...  Windy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind northwest at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

.Saturday...  Breezy.  Partly sunny.  High 47 to 52.  Northwest winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 45 to 50.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 33 to 38.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 47 to 52.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  53 degrees
Low:  36 degrees

Friday's Pollen Forecast:

Tree:    Low
Weed:  Low
Grass:  None

Sunrise Friday:  7:25 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   6:24 PM CDT

Tim