Friday, September 30, 2011

9/30/11: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:33 PM CDT, Friday, September 30th, 2011

Rainfall report for Thursday, September 29th, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  0.30"
Hibbing, MN:  0.26"
Ashland, WI:  0.28"
Hayward, WI:  0.47"
Bruno, MN:  0.47"
Dixon Lake, MN:  0.20"
Northome, MN:  0.26"
Cook, MN:  0.73"
Embarrass, MN:  0.55"
4 miles east of Island Lake, MN:  0.31"
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  0.37"
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  0.25"
Butternut, WI:  0.53"
Upson, WI:  1.24"
9 miles north of Bayfield, WI:  0.42"
Gordon, WI:  0.20"
Sarona, WI:  0.45"
Solon Springs, WI:  0.28"
Winter, WI:  0.45"

High winds hit portions of Upper Michigan and Wisconsin on Thursday, September 29th, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Marquette, MI and Green Bay, WI

Menominee, Michigan (Airport)  59 mph
Bellevue, WI:  50 mph
Green Bay, WI (Airport:  47 mph
Green Bay, WI (Lighthouse)  71 mph
Deaths Door Airport, WI (North Port)  64 mph
Sister Bay, WI:  69 mph
Chambers Island, WI:  68 mph

Widespread winds of 40-60 mph also occurred in Upper Michigan with wind speeds close to 70 mph along the South Shore in Upper Michigan.

Weather Tidbits:
Source:  Tom Skilling.  WGN TV.  Climate Prediction Center.

*NOAA buoy 50 miles east-southeast of Milwaukee, WI reported 23 foot waves earlier Today

*33% chance for Above Normal Temperatures and Precipitation for October 2011 in Duluth, Minnesota

October 2011 Climate Data for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Average temperature:  43.2 degrees
Average precipitation:  2.85"
Average snowfall:  2.3"

WEATHER HEADLINES:

*Quiet weather pattern expected thru the middle of next week
*Warm-up commences Saturday, but more so on Sunday
*Possible rain event for late next week/next weekend?

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Ridge of high pressure averaging 1022-1026mb covered the Plains and Western Ontario Province Today.  A mainly quiet day with near seasonal temperatures as the month of September comes to a close.  Highs Today were in the middle to upper 40s in the Arrowhead with 50s to around 60 degrees for the rest of us.  A few lake effect showers did occur at times Today along the South Shore of Lake Superior, mainly affecting Ashland and Iron Counties.  Winds Today were out of the north or east at under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery.  A potent upper level trough over the Eastern Great Lakes continued to dig south-east Today.  Note:  Upper level winds on the backside of this H5 trough were as strong as 130 knots late This Afternoon in far Southeast Wisconsin per RUC model analysis.  Warmth was building backinto the Northern Rockies as an upper level ridge covered the Rockies and Western High Plains Today with widespread 80 degree temperatures from Alberta and Saskatchwan Province, south through Montana, Wyoming and the Western Dakotas.

Tonight through Saturday Night:

High pressure will move off to our south/east during this period.  Expect clear-partly cloudy skies in our area with spotty lake effect rain showers over Ashland and Iron Counties Wisconsin coming to an end early This Evening.  Low temperatures for Tonight will be in the 20s and 30s with highs Tomorrow in the 50s and 60s.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s and 40s.  Winds will be variable Tonight at under 15 mph with southerly winds developing at under 20 mph for Saturday and Saturday Night.

Extended Forecast:

The period from Sunday through at least Thursday of next week looks unseasonably warm at the moment as southerly winds lock in across the Plains and Upper Midwest.  A cold front to our north for Sunday and Monday may try to sneak south and through parts of our area for next Tuesday-Wednesday, but the trend Today seems to be for this boundary to remain farther north than what the models have been showing during the past few days.  An upper level trough will dig into the Western U.S. for next week with a fairly vigorous storm lifting north into the Dakotas toward the end of next week or next weekend...This system could bring some rain to Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin sometime between Friday-Sunday, October 7th-9th.  High temperatures for Sunday and Monday will be in the 60s and 70s with an 80 degree temperature not out of the question, especially on Monday.  Lows Sunday Night and Monday Night will mainly be in the 40s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind north to northeast under 12 mph.

.Saturday...  Mostly sunny.  High 52 to 57.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 38 to 43.  Wind south around 12 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 67 to 72.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 60 to 65.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  59 degrees
Low:  40 degrees

Sunrise Saturday:  7:07 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   6:49 PM CDT

Tim


Thursday, September 29, 2011

9/29/11: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:12 PM CDT, Thursday, September 29th, 2011

High temperature report for Wednesday, September 28th, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  75 degrees
International Falls, MN:  82 degrees
Brainerd, MN:  82 degrees
Orr, MN:  81 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  82 degrees
Pine River, MN:  81 degrees
Cass Lake, MN:  84 degrees
Northome, MN:  80 degrees
Kabetogama, MN:  81 degrees

Weather Tidbits:
Source:  NOAA.  Paul Douglas (St. Cloud Times)

*Record wettest September at Baltimore, Maryland.  12.80" of rain has fallen so far this month beating the previous record of 12.41" which was set in 1934.

*Record wettest September at Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.  9.64" of rain has fallen so far this month beating the previous record of 6.63".

*Harrisburg, Pennsylvania has had it's wettest September on record and the wettest year on record.  Almost 60" of precipitation has fallen so far in 2011 which breaks the previous record wettest year of 59" set in 1972.

*100 days so far this summer above 100 degrees at San Angelo, Texas.

*Average September temperature so far at Houston, Texas is 82.8 degrees which makes this the 3rd warmest September on record.

Temperatures on Wednesday Afternoon were warmer in parts of Minnesota compared to the SE U.S.

Source:  Paul Douglas.  St. Cloud Times

Roseau, MN:  82 degrees/Miami, FL:  80 degrees
Hallock, MN:  82 degrees/Birmingham, AL:  81 degrees
Detroit Lakes, MN:  81 degrees/Mobile, AL:  72 degrees
Moorhead, MN:  82 degrees/Montegomery, AL:  73 degrees

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Areas of rain ending This Evening
-Lake effect shower threat for the South Shore of Lake Superior late Tonight/Friday
-Gusty winds to continue Tonight
-Cool temperatures into Friday Night
-Moderating temperatures for the weekend

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Strong low pressure of 996mb was located near Maquette, Michigan late This Afternoon.  Widespread rain has been occurring Today across Northwest Wisconsin while some rain affected Northern-Eastern Minnesota mainly before Noon Today.  High temperatures in Northern Minnesota Today are running about 20 degrees colder compared to yesterday.  Temperatures This Afternoon were in the 50s and 60s across our area with the coolest temps covering the Hayward Lakes, Ashland and Hurley areas where temperatures were only around 50 degrees late This Afternoon.  Skies were overcast Today in Northwest Wisconsin with partly to mostly cloudy skies covering Northern Minnesota.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A powerful Autumn storm was moving south/east across the Great Lakes Today.  RUC model analysis places a 120 knot upper level jet streak in Eastern Iowa and Western Illinois late This Afternoon while 120-210 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls covered much of the Upper Midwest, Central-Northern Great Lakes Today.

Tonight:

*Wind Advisory* remains in effect until 7PM CDT This Evening for Cook, Lake, Central-Southern St. Louis, Southern Itasca, Cass, Crow Wing, Aitkin, Pine and Carlton Counties in Minnesota.  And for Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland, Iron, Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer and Price Counties in Wisconsin. 

A strong area of low pressure will reach the Eastern Great Lakes by dawn.  Some rain will continue before 7PM CDT This Evening in Northwest Wisconsin, especially east of a line from Hayward to Ashland.  Spotty showers could also affect portions of Northern Minnesota early Tonight.  Majority of the area should be dry Overnight, although some lake effect rain showers could start to develop in Ashland and Iron Counties Wisconsin.  Lows Tonight will be in the 30s and 40s with north or northwest winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 40 mph during the Evening.

Friday and Friday Night:

High pressure builds into the Upper Midwest during this period.  Looks dry for all but the South Shore of Lake Superior on Friday...The area from Ashland to Hurley will see some lake effect rain showers on Friday with dry weather returning to these areas by Friday Evening.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecasted Tomorrow with highs in the 40s and 50s.  Skies will be clear to partly cloudy Tomorrow Night with lows in the 20s and 30s.  Winds during this period will be out of the north or east at up to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

High pressure heads off to our east during the weekend with a southwest wind and milder temperatures returning to the Upper Midwest.  Warmest day looks to be on Sunday when high temperatures reach the 60s and 70s in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Saturday's highs will be in the 50s and 60s.  Low temperatures Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the 40s with some 30s possible especially Saturday Night.

Next week's forecast is a bit tricky especially in terms of temperatures.  Looks like a cold front will slip south out of Central Canada while a strong 1030+ mb high passes by to our north-east around the middle of next week.  There are differences showing up in the computer models as to how far south the cold front will get for the early-mid part of next week and this will have an impact on high temperatures, especially for areas near Lake Superior.  Should the front stay farther north, then a southerly flow and above average high temperatures would continue most of next week.  However, if the front pushes more to the south, then easterly winds off Lake Superior would result in near average temperatures.  Doesn't look like will see much in the way of rainfall until perhaps late next week or next weekend, October 7th-9th time frame.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*WIND ADVISORY* in effect until 7PM CDT This Evening

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Variable cloudiness.  Light rain showers possible at times mainly early.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind north to northwest at 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph during the Evening.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 50 to 55.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind northeast around 12 mph.

.Saturday...  Mostly sunny.  High 50 to 55.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 38 to 43.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 67 to 72.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 65 to 70.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  59 degrees
Low:  41 degrees

Friday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  None
Tree:    None
Grass:  None

Sunrise Friday:  7:05 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   6:51 PM CDT

Tim


Wednesday, September 28, 2011

9/28/11: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:33 PM CDT, Wednesday, September 28th, 2011

*WIND ADVISORY*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Wind Advisory is in effect from 10AM CDT until 6PM CDT Thursday for the following Counties.  In Minnesota:  Southern Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...Pine...Carlton...and Southern St. Louis.  In Wisconsin:  Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...Iron...Burnett...Washburn...Sawyer...and Price.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  Leader MN...Brainerd MN...Hill City MN...Aitkin MN...McGregor MN...Pine City MN...Hinckley MN...Moose Lake MN...Cloquet MN...Duluth MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Cable WI...Ashland WI...Butternut WI...Hurley WI...Mercer WI...Danbury WI...Spooner WI...Hayward WI...and Park Falls WI.

Impacts:  Northwest winds will increase to 20 to 35 mph Thursday Morning.  Wind gusts as high as 45 mph are possible Thursday Afternoon.  Winds will diminish late Thursday Night.

A wind advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected.  Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.  Use extra caution.

*RECORD HEAT at International Falls, Minnesota Today*

High temperature as of late This Afternoon was 82 degrees at International Falls, Minnesota.  This breaks the record high for September 28th...The previous record for Today was 80 degrees which was set in 1922 and 1921.

***MAJOR WIND AND WAVE EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR***
Source:  National Weather Service Marquette, MI and Duluth, MN.

Storm Warning has been issued for portions of Central-Eastern Lake Superior from 1PM CDT Thursday until 7AM CDT Friday.  N-NW winds of 41-52 knots are expected to develop with waves as high as 22 feet with a maximum wave height of 33 feet possible during the peak of the event.

Gale Warning has been issued from 10AM CDT Thursday until 10PM CDT Thursday for Western Lake Superior for NW winds up to 45 knots with waves of 4-8 feet for the North Shore of Lake Superior and 6-10 feet along the South Shore of Lake Superior.

Weather Tidbits:

*High temperature of 73 degrees on September 27th at Duluth, Minnesota was the first time since September 12th with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees.  The high temperature on the 12th was 82 degrees.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

*Mainly quiet during the Evening
*Strong winds and cooler temperatures arrive on Thursday
*Some showers are possible at times late Tonight thru Thursday Evening
*Dry weather pattern begins on Friday and lasts thru at least early next week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 1008mb was in far Northwest Indiana late This Afternoon with low pressure of 1006mb centered in Southwest Ontario Province.  A cold front connected to the Ontario low was heading toward the Red River Valley late Today.  Very warm temperatures were found ahead of this cold front Today with highs reaching the 70s and 80s in Northcentral and Eastern Minnesota with 90s in parts of South Dakota and extreme Southwest Minnesota.  Cooler 50s and 60s were found in Superior and Downtown Duluth with mid 60s to low 70s for the rest of Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds Today were out of the southwest, north or east at under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb low which was over Illinois for about the last week was finally moving E-NE into the Ohio Valley and Eastern Great Lakes Today per water vapor satellite imagery thanks to an approaching upper level trough which is digging SE from Saskatchewan and Manitoba Provinces.  A potent 80 knot mid level jet and 110 knot upper level jet along with 90 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls was accompaning this system to our northwest Today per RUC model analysis.

Tonight:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies can be expected in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with a few showers possible beginning late Tonight.  Low pressure will pass to our north during the night while a strong cold front pushes southeast and through our area by dawn.  Lows will be in the 40s and 50s with southwest winds turning northwest at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph developing Overnight.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Gusty northwest winds will usher in cooler temperatures during this period.  Low pressure at the surface and aloft will deepen as they exit to our south/east on Thursday...A vigorous upper level trough will dig S-SE into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through this period.  There will be some scattered rain showers in our area Tomorrow with perhaps a rumble of thunder during the Afternoon.  Showers will end Thursday Night.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecasted during this period with highs Tomorrow in the 50s and 60s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 30s and 40s.  850mb wind speeds are expected to increase to 35-50 knots on Thursday and this should result in winds of 20-35 mph in our area with gusts to 40-45 mph.  Note:  The strongest winds should occur Tomorrow into Tomorrow Evening.

Note:  Rainfall totals from late Tonight through Thursday Evening should generally be 0.10" or less for Northern Minnesota with some spots in Northwest Wisconsin receiving up to 0.25-0.40" of rain

Extended Forecast:

High pressure settles into the Upper Midwest on Friday with less wind and cool temperatures.  Highs will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Friday Night in the 20s and 30s.  High moves off to our east this weekend with southwesterly winds setting up.  Highs for Saturday will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees with lows Saturday Night in the 30s and 40s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*WIND ADVISORY* in effect from 10AM CDT until 6PM CDT Thursday

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Showers possible Overnight.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind variable, becoming southwest at 5 to 15 mph This Evening.  Wind becoming northwest at 15 to 20 mph Overnight.

.Thursday...  Windy.  Variable cloudiness.  Scattered showers possible.  High 58 to 63.  Wind northwest at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Thursday Night...  Breezy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 50 to 55.

.Friday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 30 to 35.

.Saturday...  Mostly sunny.  High 50 to 55.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 38 to 43.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 60 to 65.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  60 degrees
Low:  41 degrees

Thursday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  None
Tree:    None
Grass:  None

Sunrise Thursday:  7:04 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   6:53 PM CDT

Tim

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

9/27/11: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:24 PM CDT, Tuesday, September 27th, 2011

Weather Tidbits:

*58.44" of precipitation has fallen so far this year at Central Park in New York City.  This is the 9th wettest year on record.  Note:  Records date back to 1869.  (Paul Douglas.  St. Cloud Times)

*High temperature at Chicago, Illinois (O'Hare) has failed to reach 65 degrees for 6 days in a row.  This has never happened before during the month of September.  Weather records for O'Hare date back to 1959. (Tom Skilling. WGN TV)

Quite a contrast in low temperatures over the Northland This Morning
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

International Falls, MN:  33 degrees/Duluth, MN:  56 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  39 degrees/Grand Marais, MN:  57 degrees
Ely, MN:  37 degrees/Silver Bay, MN:  57 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  29 degrees/Ashland, WI:  56 degrees

Rainfall report for Tuesday, September 27th, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Ashland, WI:  0.18"
Hayward, WI:  0.16"
3 miles south of Ashland, WI:  0.23"
Butternut, WI:  0.15"
Park Falls, WI:  0.16"
Upson, WI:  0.35"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  0.25"

Weather History:

On this date in 1987:  A record high temperature of 83 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
On this date in 1991:  A record low temperature of 27 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Scattered showers linger Tonight in Northwest Wisconsin
-Mild Wednesday ahead
-Gusty winds Wednesday Night thru Thursday Evening
-Cooler temperatures return for Thursday-Saturday
-Pattern shift next week?

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 1008mb was located near Chicago, Illinois late This Afternoon.  Rain associated with this low continued to affect portions of Northwest Wisconsin Today, mainly east of a line from Webster to Bayfield.  High temperatures due to the clouds and areas of rain in Northwest Wisconsin were in the middle 50s to lower 60s.  Partly cloudy to sunny skies prevailed in Northern Minnesota with warm temperatures for late September...Highs ranged from the middle 60s around the head of Lake Superior to the 70s from the Brainerd Lakes to Iron Range and Arrowhead regions, a few locales even came close to reaching 80 degrees This Afternoon in Northern Minnesota.  Winds Today were out of the west, north or east under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb low was centered over Southern Lake Michigan late Today per water vapor satellite imagery.  NE upper level flow continued in the Upper Midwest Today on the backside of this system.

Tonight:

Surface and upper level low will continue sit and spin near Chicago, Illinois.  Areas of rain showers will persist during the Evening in Northwest Wisconsin, then dry weather should return to these areas Overnight.  Mostly cloudy skies will continue in Northwest Wisconsin with clear to partly cloudy skies for Northern Minnesota.  Lows will be in the 40s and 50s with some 30s possible in Northern Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the west, north or east under 15 mph.  Note:  Patchy fog could develop late Tonight, any fog that does form will burn off between 7-9AM Wednesday.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Low pressure will finally pull slightly more to the northeast during this period thanks to an approaching cold front which is forecasted to move southeast across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Wednesday Night.  Warm air will be found ahead of this front as 850mb temperatures climb to +12 to +18 degrees C on Wednesday, this should lead to high temperatures reaching the 70s and lower 80s in Northern Minnesota with 60s and 70s for Northwestern Wisconsin.  Lows Wednesday Night will be 40s and 50s.  Winds Tomorrow will be out of the southwest, north or east under 15 mph.  Winds will increase Tomorrow Night as they become northwest at 10-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph late in the night.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected during this period with the potential for a few showers by Tomorrow Night.

Extended Forecast:

A potent upper level trough and area of low pressure will dig south/east into the Great Lakes on Thursday before moving off to our east Thursday Night and Friday.  Gusty northwest winds will continue on Thursday with wind speeds of 15-35 mph, cold air advection will be occurring as well with 850mb temperatures falling to zero to +4 degrees C.  Even colder air arrives by Friday with 850mb temperatures forecasted to drop to zero to -4 degrees C.  Expect some rain showers for Thursday with mainly dry weather from Thursday Night into Friday Night as high pressure settles into the Upper Midwest.  High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Thursday Night in the 30s and 40s.  Highs on Friday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Friday Night in the 20s and 30s.

Long range model guidance is showing a pattern change for next week with a SW 500mb flow developing across the Plains.  This with time could lead to wetter weather for portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, in fact there might even be some early October thunderstorms at some point next week.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible late.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  Warm for the time of year.  High 73 to 78.  Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Becoming breezy.  Variable cloudiness.  Showers possible late.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind becoming northwest at 15 to 25 mph.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday...  Breezy and cooler.  Variable cloudiness.  Showers possible.  High 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 40%.  Northwest winds could occasionally gust to 30 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 50 to 55.

.Friday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 30 to 35.

.Saturday...  Mostly sunny.  High 50 to 55.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  60 degrees
Low:  42 degrees

Wednesday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  Low
Tree:    None
Grass:  None

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:03 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   6:55 PM CDT

Tim


Monday, September 26, 2011

9/26/11: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:50 PM CDT, Monday, September 26th, 2011

Low temperature report for Monday, September 26th, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

International Falls, MN:  31 degrees
Ely, MN:  32 degrees
Orr, MN:  32 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  30 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  30 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  28 degrees
Kabetogama, MN:  31 degrees
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  28 degrees
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  32 degrees

*Pagami Creek Fire Update*
Source:  Incident Information System

As of earlier Today, the fire was 53% contained with the size at 93,469 acres.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

*Upper low lingers over the Southern Great Lakes thru mid-week
*Rain showers possible at times for Northwest Wisconsin and far Eastern Minnesota Tonight-Tuesday
*Northern Minnesota stays dry thru Wednesday
*Cooler temperatures return late this week behind a rather strong cold front

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure averaging 1000mb was located in Northwest Illinois late Today with a ridge of high pressure averaging 1018mb extending from Southern Ontario to Western Quebec Province.  Rain associated with the system to our southeast has been moving west through Northern, Central and Western Wisconsin and Southeast Minnesota Today with some light rain even reaching as far west as Price, Iron and Sawyer Counties in Northwest Wisconsin.  Sky conditions Today ranged from sunny in Northern Minnesota to overcast in Northwest Wisconsin.  High temperatures ranged from the middle 60s to lower 70s in Northern Minnesota to the middle 50s to lower 60s from Downtown Duluth through Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds Today were out of the north or east at 10-15 mph with higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb low has moved from the Dakotas on September 20th to Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin on September 26th per RUC model analysis.  This system has been moving very slowly due to it being away from the main jet stream which has been located well to the north during the past week.  NE upper level flow continued across the Upper Midwest Today while an upper level ridge covered the Central-Southern Rockies per RUC model analysis.

Tonight:

Clear to partly cloudy skies should continue in Northern Minnesota while skies become mostly cloudy in Northeast-Eastern Minnesota and stay mostly cloudy across Northwest Wisconsin.  Low pressure to our southeast will spread some showers into Northwest Wisconsin Tonight, and some of these showers could work there way into Eastern and Northeast Minnesota late Tonight.  Low temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s with some 30s possible in Northern Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the north or east under 20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Low pressure system remains nearly stationary to our southeast during this period.  Mostly cloudy skies with some showers are expected on Tuesday in Northwest Wisconsin and possibly in Eastern-Northeast Minnesota.  Partly cloudy skies will occur in Northern Minnesota Tomorrow with mostly cloudy skies elsewhere.  Highs will be in the 70s in Northcentral Minnesota with 50s and 60s for the rest of us.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecasted Tuesday Night with a slight chance for lingering showers in Northwest Wisconsin.  Lows will be in the 40s to lower 50s.  Winds during this period will be out of the north or east under 20 mph.

Note:  Rainfall totals from Tonight into Tuesday Night will range from 0.10-0.25" in Northwest Wisconsin with some 1/2" totals possible from Hurley to Butternut down through Park Falls and Ogema.  Rainfall totals should be <0.10" for far Eastern and Northeast Minnesota.

Extended Forecast:

A cold front will move southeast across our area from late Wednesday into early Thursday.  This front will finally cause the pesky upper level system in Illinois to move east by mid to late week.  Wednesday looks mainly dry in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s, in fact a few locations in Northcentral Minnesota could reach the lower 80s on Wednesday.  Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 40s to lower 50s.  Colder temperatures will move in for Thursday and Friday as an upper level trough deepens across the Great Lakes.  High temperatures on Thursday will mainly be in the 50s to lower 60s with Friday's high temperatures probably not getting out of the 50s with some 40s possible in Northern Minnesota.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.  The risk for showers does exist from Wednesday Night into early Friday as that cold front and upper level trough pass through the Upper Midwest.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers possible after Midnight.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph especially This Evening.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday...  Considerable cloudiness.  Showers possible.  High 61 to 66.  Wind north to northeast at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 65 to 70.

.Wednesday Night...  Variable cloudiness.  Showers possible.  Low 45 to 50.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday...  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 58 to 63.  Chance of rain 30%.  Northwest winds could occasionally gust to 30 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 50 to 55.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  61 degrees
Low:  42 degrees

Tuesday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  Low
Grass:  None
Tree:    None

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:02 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   6:57 PM CDT

Tim

Saturday, September 24, 2011

9/24/11: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:43 PM CDT, Saturday, September 24th, 2011

Low temperature report for Saturday, September 24th, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

International Falls, MN:  32 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  31 degrees
Ely, MN:  30 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  28 degrees
Eveleth, MN:  32 degrees
Pine River, MN:  32 degrees
Aitkin, MN:  30 degrees
McGregor, MN:  32 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  24 degrees

Weather Tidbits:

*8 waterspouts have been sighted Today off the shores of Lake Michigan.  As many as 5 waterspouts were sighted in the Chicago, Illinois area with 3 waterspouts off the Milwaukee Shoreline.  (NWS/WGN TV)

Weather History:

On this date in 2000:  A record low temperature of 26 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

*Little change in the weather pattern thru early next week
*Rain showers could fall at times in Northwest Wisconsin from Sunday-Tuesday
*A couple showers could sneak into Northeast Minnesota early next week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 1012mb was centered in Southeast Missouri late This Afternoon with a high pressure ridge of 1016-1018mb stretching from Northeast Minnesota to Eastern Ontario Province.  Widespread low clouds early This Morning gave way to increasing amounts of sunshine This Afternoon in Northern-Northeast Minnesota while partly sunny to overcast skies prevailed in Northwest Wisconsin.  High temperatures Today were in the 50s to around 60 degrees with east or south winds under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb low continues to churn in Northern Illinois per water vapor satellite imagery with a N/NE upper level flow continuing on the backside of this system in the Upper Midwest.  Broad 500mb ridge extended from Western Ontario Province into Southwest Canada, down through the Northern Plains and Rockies per RUC model analysis.  Note:  Afternoon temperatures were in the 80s and lower 90s once again Today from Southwest Canada through the Western Dakotas and Rockies.

Tonight through Sunday Night:

Cut-off low sits and spins over the Central-Southern Great Lakes during this period.  Expect partly-mostly cloudy skies in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with the possibility of a few rain showers from Ashland and Hurley, south to Hayward, Park Falls and Phillips.  Low temperatures Tonight and Sunday Night will be in the 30s and 40s, but a few 20s can't be ruled out Tonight in Northern Minnesota.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the east under 20 mph.  Note:  Patchy fog could redevelop late Tonight with any fog that does form burning off between 8-10AM Sunday.

Extended Forecast:

It will take til Wednesday for the cut-off low to finally pull northeast out of the Central-Southern Great Lakes.  Moisture wrapping around this system will bring some showers to Northwest Wisconsin for Monday and Tuesday with a chance for a few showers moving into parts of Northeast Minnesota during the Monday Night-Tuesday Evening time frame.  Northern Minnesota will stay dry from Monday into Tuesday.  High temperatures on Monday will be in the 50s and 60s with a few 70s even possible in the Brainerd Lakes region.  Lows Monday Night will be in the 40s to lower 50s.  Highs Tuesday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Tuesday Night in the 40s to lower 50s.  Dry weather is expected for the entire area next Wednesday.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 38 to 43.  Wind east around 12 mph.

.Sunday...  Variable cloudiness.  High 55 to 60.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Considerable cloudiness.  High 58 to 63.

.Monday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 42 to 47.

.Tuesday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 58 to 63.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 44 to 49.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 65 to 70.

Normal temperatures Today

High:  61 degrees
Low:  43 degrees

Sunday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  Low
Tree:    None
Grass:  None

Sunrise Sunday:  6:59 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   7:01 PM CDT

Tim



Friday, September 23, 2011

9/23/11: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:41 PM CDT, Friday, September 23rd, 2011

Weather Tidbits:

September 22nd was the 1st time since May 2nd with a high temperature failing to reach at least 50 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

Low temperature report for Friday, September 23rd. 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

International Falls, MN:  28 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  32 degrees
Orr, MN:  28 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  30 degrees
Longville, MN:  30 degrees
Pine River, MN:  30 degrees
Kabetogama, MN:  29 degrees

*Pagami Creek Wildfire Update*
Source:  Incident Information System

Pagami Creek fire was 35% contained as of late This Morning.  Size of the fire was at 93,669 acres.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

*Stagnent weather pattern into early next week
*Rain showers associated with a cut-off low should remain southeast of our area this weekend
*Near normal temperatures expected for the next couple days

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure ridge averaging 1022mb extended from Minnesota to Eastern Ontario Province late Today.  Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies prevailed from Aitkin and the Brainerd Lakes area, north to Grand Rapids, Bigfork and International Falls while generally overcast conditions continued from Northeast Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin.  High temperatures ranged from the upper 40s to middle 50s in Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast Minnesota to the mid 50s and low 60s west/northwest of the Iron Range.  Winds Today were variable in direction under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb low covered the Central-Southern Great Lakes with a N/NE upper level flow in place over Minnesota.  West of us is an upper level ridge which covered the Western U.S. and portions of Southwestern Canada.  Note:  Afternoon temperatures were in the 80s and lower 90s Today in parts of Montana as well as Alberta and Saskatchewan Province Canada.

Tonight through Saturday Night:

Upper level low sits to our southeast with high pressure in the Upper Midwest.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecasted during this period with lows Tonight and Saturday Night in the 30s and 40s with some 20s possible in Northern Minnesota, especially Tonight.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the east under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Not much change in the weather pattern with a cutoff low to our southeast and a 500mb ridge to our west.  Mainly dry weather is anticipated from Sunday into Tuesday, although a few showers may sneak into parts of Northwest Wisconsin early next week due to that upper low across the Southern Great Lakes.  High temperatures for Sunday and Monday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Sunday Night and Monday Night mainly in the 40s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind east around 12 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 55 to 60.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 38 to 43.  Wind east around 12 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 55 to 60.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 58 to 63.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 42 to 47.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 60 to 65.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  62 degrees
Low:  43 degrees

Saturday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  Low
Tree:    None
Grass:  None

Sunrise Saturday:  6:58 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   7:03 PM CDT

Tim

Thursday, September 22, 2011

9/22/11: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:39 PM CDT, Thursday, September 22nd, 2011

Rainfall report for Wednesday, September 21st, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  0.16"
Ashland, WI:  0.29"
Hayward, WI:  0.30"
Cook, MN:  0.16"
Embarrass, MN:  0.13"
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  0.26"
Silver Bay, MN:  0.14"
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  0.16"
Butternut, WI:  0.23"
Upson, WI:  0.47"
9 miles north of Bayfield, WI:  0.27"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  0.21"
Gordon, WI:  0.32"

WEATHER HEADLINES:

*Chilly temps with lingering clouds and spotty showers Tonight
*Near to below average temperatures Friday into the weekend
*Looks dry this weekend into most of next week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure ridge averaging 1024mb extended from the Eastern Dakotas to Western Ontario Province with low pressure of 1011mb centered in Southern Hudson Bay Canada.  Partly sunny skies occurred in northwest areas Today while mainly overcast conditions persisted for the rest of us.  A few light showers did affect parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today, but most areas stayed dry.  High temperatures ranged from the middle 40s to middle 50s which is about 10-15 degrees below average for late September.  Winds Today were out north, northwest or northeast under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

N/NE 500mb flow along with an upper level trough covered the Upper Midwest, Western Great Lakes and Central Canada per water vapor satellite imagery while an upper level ridge built into the Northern Rockies and Southwestern Canada per RUC model analysis.  Note:  Temperatures underneath this ridge climbed into the 80s Today in Montana into portions of Alberta and Saskatchewan Province with 850mb temperatures as warm as +22 degrees C...In contrast, temperatures in Minnesota were under 60 degrees Today with H85 temperatures of zero to +4 degrees C.

Tonight through Friday Night:

High pressure will remain over the Upper Midwest with low pressure and an upper level trough moving slowly away from our area.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecasted Tonight with partly sunny to partly cloudy skies on Friday and clear-partly cloudy skies for Friday Night.  A couple of light showers are possible Tonight in Northwest Wisconsin and Arrowhead of Minnesota, the rest of this period looks dry.  Low temperatures Tonight and Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees with some 20s possible in Northcentral Minnesota.  High temperatures Tomorrow will be in the 40s and 50s.  Note:  Areas of fog could develop in spots late Tonight, this fog would then burn off between 7-9AM Friday.

Extended Forecast:

Upper level cut-off low will be centered over the Ohio Valley, Central-Eastern Great Lakes from this weekend into the middle of next week while an upper level ridge builds east into the Northern Plains.  Looks dry in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Saturday through at least next Tuesday.  High temperatures for Saturday and Sunday will be in the 50s and 60s with low temperatures Saturday Night and Sunday Night in the 30s and 40s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 36 to 41.  Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 52 to 57.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 37 to 42.  Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 58 to 63.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 38 to 43.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 60 to 65.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 60 to 65.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  62 degrees
Low:  44 degrees

Friday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  None
Tree:    None
Grass:  None

Sunrise Friday:  6:57 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   7:05 PM CDT

Tim



Wednesday, September 21, 2011

9/21/11: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:26 PM CDT, Wednesday, September 21st, 2011

Rainfall report for Tuesday, September 20th, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  0.15"
International Falls, MN:  0.71"
Brainerd, MN:  0.24"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.67"
Hibbing, MN:  0.43"
Ashland, WI:  0.19"
Dixon Lake, MN:  0.41"
Northome, MN:  0.40"
Walker, MN:  0.30"
Cook, MN:  0.53"
Embarrass, MN:  0.63"
Floodwood, MN:  0.56"
Grand Portage, MN:  0.68"
Kabetogama, MN:  0.86"
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  0.19"
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  0.64"
Madeline Island, WI:  0.79"
Solon Springs, WI:  0.32"

30 day outlook for October 2011
Source:  Climate Prediction Center

For Duluth, Minnesota:

33% chance for Above Normal Temperatures with Equal Chances for Above Normal, Below Normal or Normal Precipitation.

90 day outlook for October-December 2011
Source:  Climate Prediction Center

For Duluth, Minnesota:

Equal chances for Above Normal, Below Normal or Normal Temperatures and Precipitation.

WEATHER HEADLINES

*Clouds and occasional rain showers linger into Thursday
*A period of dry weather takes over starting on Friday, lasting into much of next week
*Cool temperatures into Thursday, milder temperatures by the weekend and early next week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 1004mb has moved into Northern Lake Superior late This Afternoon.  Clouds and areas of light rain and drizzle wrapping around this deep system affected our area Today with cool high temperatures in the 40s and 50s along with a brisk northwest wind at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level low spinning slowly E-NE across the Upper Midwest and Lake Superior with a 500mb trough stretching from Eastern Montana through the Dakotas and into the Upper Midwest.

Tonight:

Surface and upper level low will be centered to our E-NE with mostly cloudy skies lingering on the backside of this storm.  Some light rain and drizzle will also continue Tonight, especially in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Lows will be in the 30s and 40s with some 20s possible in a few spots in Northcentral Minnesota if skies can clear a bit during the night.  Winds will be out of the north or northwest at up to 20 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Low pressure will move into Eastern Canada while an upper level trough continues to cover the Upper Midwest.  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies are forecasted on Thursday with the possibility for a few rain showers in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  For Thursday Night, expect skies to become clear to partly cloudy.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 30s to around 40 degrees with some 20s possible in Northcentral Minnesota.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will cut-off in the Ohio Valley and Central-Southern Great Lakes from Friday through early next week while an upper level ridge builds into the Northern Plains.  Our area will remain in between both of these features with a N-NW 500mb flow.  Mainly dry weather is forecasted from Friday through the middle of next week the way it looks now.  High temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Friday Night and Saturday Night in the 30s and 40s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Breezy.  Occasional light rain showers and drizzle.  Low 38 to 43.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 50%.

.Thursday...  Considerable cloudiness.  Light rain showers possible at times.  High 47 to 52.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 38 to 43.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 58 to 63.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 60 to 65.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  63 degrees
Low:  44 degrees

Thursday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  None
Tree:    None
Grass:  None

Sunrise Thursday:  6:55 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   7:07 PM CDT

Tim


Tuesday, September 20, 2011

9/20/11: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:01 PM CDT, Tuesday, September 20th, 2011

Weather Tidbits:
Source:  Paul Douglas.  St. Cloud Times

*10 separate billion dollar weather disasters in the U.S. so far in 2011...Most on record.

*Number of 100 degree days so far in 2011*

Wichita Falls, Texas:  95 days/old record was 79 days
San Angelo, Texas:  93 days/old record was 60 days
Waco, Texas:  79 days/old record was 63 days
Austin, Texas:  76 days/old record was 69 days

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Slow moving storm keeps skies fairly gray into Thursday
-Winds increase for a time This Evening, then pick up once again on Wednesday
-Occasional rain through Wednesday Afternoon

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 1000mb was centered in Eastern North Dakota as of 3PM with a cold front attached to this low surging NE out of Central Minnesota This Afternoon.  Some rain did occur at times Today with the bulk of the steadier rain as of late Afternoon affecting the Arrowhead of Minnesota into Southern Ontario Province Canada.  There's been extensive cloudiness across the area Today, but some clearing is occurring late Today in portions of Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin just ahead of the approaching cold front.  This clearing has led to some weak instability developing in those aforementioned areas...3PM Meso-Analysis showed CAPE <250 j/kg with Lapse Rates around 6.5 c/km.  0-6 KM BULK SHEAR was up to 60 knots with 1KM SHEAR of 25-35 knots and 1KM HELICITY ranging from 250m2/s2-400m2/s2.  Certainly is enough shear in place for a severe threat This Afternoon, but the lack of instability and moisture has kept this threat extremely low.  High temperatures Today ranged from the mid to upper 60s in Northwest Wisconsin to Eastern Minnesota with 50s in Northern Minnesota and near Lake Superior.  Winds Today were out of the southwest or east at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Very impressive late summer storm with it's surface and 500mb low was centered in Eastern North Dakota and Westcentral Minnesota per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.  70-100 knot mid/upper level jet extends from Southern Minnesota to Western Wisconsin late This Afternoon with a rather large area of 90-180 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Today.

Tonight:

Low pressure will move into Minnesota with a cold front continuing to lift north-east across the Northland This Evening.  Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur during the Evening with lingering areas of light rain and drizzle for the Overnight period.  Severe potential is very low This Evening, but this system is very dynamic and the amount of shear in place early Tonight could result in an isolated severe weather threat for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Damaging winds would be the main risk should a severe thunderstorm develop with a lesser risk for large hail and brief tornadoes.  Mostly cloudy skies will cover our area Tonight with lows in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the southwest or east under 20 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Surface low moves out into Lake Superior with a lingering upper level low/trough in the Upper Midwest.  Mostly cloudy skies with increasing north-northwest winds at 15-30 mph will be common in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin during this period.  Expect some rain and drizzle on Wednesday with precipitation decreasing Wednesday Evening/Overnight.  High temperatures Tomorrow will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 30s to lower 40s.

Note:  Rainfall totals from Tonight into Wednesday Afternoon will range from 0.10-0.25" for most of our area with 0.50-0.75" totals possible in Northern Minnesota.

Extended Forecast:

Looks like an upper level low and upper trough will cut-off in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region late this week through early next week while an upper level ridge builds into the Northern Plains.  The warmest temperatures will remain west of our area this weekend unless the cut-off low sets up slightly more to the east than what the computer models are showing Today.  It does look mainly dry in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Thursday through Sunday, September 22nd-25th with any shower activity associated with the developing cut-off low affecting areas to our south-southeast.  High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 40s and 50s with Friday's highs generally in the 50s.  Low temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s Thursday Night and Friday Night.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Occasional rain showers.  Isolated thunderstorms also possible early.  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind becoming southwest at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph possible early.  Chance of rain 50%.

.Wednesday...  Breezy.  Occasional light rain.  Overcast.  High 47 to 52.  Wind west to northwest at 15 to 25 mph.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 38 to 43.  Wind northwest at 15 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Considerable cloudiness.  High 47 to 52.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 38 to 43.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 58 to 63.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  63 degrees
Low:  44 degrees

Wednesday's Pollen Forecast

Weed:  None
Tree:    None
Grass:  None

Sunrise Wednesday:  6:54 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   7:09 PM CDT

Tim

Monday, September 19, 2011

9/19/11: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:49 PM CDT, Monday, September 19th, 2011

*Pagami Creek Fire Update*
Source:  Incident Information System

As of Sunday Evening, September 18th the fire was 19% contained.  The size of the fire was at 93,898 acres.  598 personnel have been assigned to battle the Pagami Creek fire.

Rainfall report for Sunday, September 18th, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  0.26"
International Falls, MN:  0.26"
Brainerd, MN:  0.18"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.57"
Hibbing, MN:  0.16"
Ashland, WI:  0.53"
Hayward, WI:  0.57"
12 miles north of Isle, MN:  0.40"
Cass Lake, MN:  0.29"
Northome, MN:  0.24"
Cook, MN:  0.18"
Embarrass, MN:  0.25"
Floodwood, MN:  0.45"
Grand Portage, MN:  0.44"
Illgen City, MN:  0.85"
Kabetogama, MN:  0.22"
Silver Bay, MN:  0.52"
Finland, MN:  0.57"
Butternut, WI:  0.38"
Madeline Island, WI:  0.44"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  0.53"
Solon Springs, WI:  0.25"
Sarona, WI:  0.56"

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Dry and quiet This Evening
-Rain chances return late Tonight for western areas
-Rain showers area-wide Tomorrow and Wednesday
-Dry weather returns late this week into the weekend

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A pleasant late summer day across our area compared to the mostly gray skies this past weekend and Sunday's rainfall.  Sunshine was abundant Today with high temperatures ranging from the middle 60s to around 70 degrees which is right around average for this time of year.  Winds Today were out of the west or southwest at 5-15 mph with occasional higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

W-NW 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.  Sunday's system was eastbound as it passes through the Eastern Great Lakes and Eastern Canada This Afternoon.  The next system which will affect our weather was digging SE into the Northern Rockies late Today with 80-100 knot upper level jet stream winds located in Western Montana or on the southwest side of where the surface/upper level lows were located.  This system is rather potent with a widespread area of 60 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls covering portions of Montana and Southwestern Canada Today.

Tonight:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will occur in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with low pressure moving into the Dakotas during the night.  A low level jet will increase to 30-45 knots late Tonight and this combined with some warm air advection will lead to some rain showers beginning late Tonight for western areas, generally from International Falls and Bigfork down toward Cass Lake and Walker.  Low temperatures Tonight will mainly be in the 40s to around 50 degrees with winds becoming south or east at up to 20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Low pressure will move into the Upper Midwest during this period with a cold front attached to this low pushing E-NE and through the Northland during the Tuesday Afternoon-Evening time frame.  This system will be quite potent with a 70 knot mid level jet and up to a 100 knot upper level jet on the south-east side of the low, but moisture will be lacking with dewpoints generally around 50 to maybe 55 degrees in Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast Minnesota by Tuesday Afternoon with PWS pushing toward the 1.00" mark on Tuesday.  Not much instability is forecasted to develop with CAPE generally less than 500 j/kg with Lifted Indices nearing zero/-1 degrees C.  Deformation rain band associated with this storm will likely setup over Northwestern Minnesota and portions of the Dakotas while our area sees waves of scattered rain showers on Tuesday with some rain and drizzle continuing for Tuesday Night.  Isolated thunderstorms can't be ruled out Tuesday Afternoon and Evening, mainly for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin...Severe threat is on the low side due to the lack of moisture and instability, but if thunderstorms do develop, then there will be a threat for gusty winds due to the strong jet stream nearby.  Mostly cloudy skies are expected during this period with highs Tomorrow in the 50s with some 60s in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s to near 50 degrees.  South, east or west winds are forecasted on Tuesday at 10-25 mph with winds out of the west, south or northwest Tuesday Night at 10-25 mph.

Note:  Rainfall totals of 0.10-0.25" are possible from Tuesday into Wednesday for Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota.  Rain totals of 0.25-0.75" are possible for Northern Minnesota into the Arrowhead with amounts up to 1.00" possible from Northome to International Falls and points west from there.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure at the surface and aloft will exit to our east on Wednesday, but lingering clouds and rain showers will continue in our area on the backside of this system.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the 40s and 50s.  Should see some clearing take place Wednesday Night with lows bottoming out in the 30s with some 20s in Northcentral Minnesota.  Dry weather is then expected starting on Thursday and lasting into the upcoming weekend the way it looks now.  High temperatures on Thursday will mainly be in the 50s with lows Thursday Night in the 30s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph, becoming south to southeast Overnight.

.Tuesday...  Occasional rain showers.  Isolated thunderstorms also possible.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 58 to 63.  Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph becoming south to southwest.  Chance of rain 70%.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional light rain.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind west at 15 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Wednesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Cooler.  Occasional light rain.  Temperatures nearly steady from 45 to 50.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Wednesday Night...  Variable cloudiness.  Low 35 to 40.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 50 to 55.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 35 to 40.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 58 to 63.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  64 degrees
Low:  45 degrees

Tuesday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  Low
Tree:    Low
Grass:  None

Sunrise Tuesday:  6:53 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   7:11 PM CDT

Note:  Duluth/Superior Harbor water temperature as of Today:  54.1 degrees

Tim

Friday, September 16, 2011

9/16/11: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:25 PM CDT, Friday, September 16th, 2011

Low temperature report for Friday, September 16th, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  32 degrees.  Note:  Just 2 degrees shy of the record low for Today
International Falls, MN:  23 degrees
Brainerd, MN:  32 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  22 degrees
Ashland, WI:  27 degrees
Hayward, WI:  27 degrees
Two Harbors, MN:  27 degrees
Silver Bay, MN:  25 degrees
Grand Marais, MN:  25 degrees
Ely, MN:  23 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  23 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  25 degrees
Moose Lake, MN:  28 degrees
Superior, WI:  25 degrees
Bruno, MN:  27 degrees
Northome, MN:  26 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  19 degrees
Kabetogama, MN:  23 degrees
Finland, MN:  29 degrees
Butternut, WI:  29 degrees
Upson, WI:  27 degrees
4 miles west of Clam Lake, MN:  29 degrees
Solon Springs, WI:  28 degrees

*Record low temperature at International Falls, Minnesota Today*

Low temperature at International Falls, Minnesota on Friday, September 16th, 2011 fell to 23 degrees which shattered the previous record of 28 degrees which was set in 1959.

Weather Tidbits:
Source:  National Weather Service.  Paul Douglas. St. Cloud Times.  Tom Skilling (WGN TV)

*Back to back sub-freezing low temperatures at Duluth, Minnesota on September 15th-16th.  1st time this has happened since a 3 night stretch from May 1st-3rd.
*78 degree high temperature on Thursday at Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas.  Coldest maximum temperature since May 16th when the high temperature was 74 degrees.
*88% of Texas is in exceptional drought (the most severe) This is up from 81% from a week ago.
*2.83" of rain fell at Tucson, Arizona on Thursday...This is a record for the 15th of September and the 2nd wettest September day ever recorded and 5th wettest of all time.
*Snow flurries fell in Northern Wisconsin Thursday Morning, this is the earliest snow in 95 years!
*Today marks the 3rd day in a row with a sub 60 degree high temperature at Chicago, Illinois.  Last time this happened was 88 years ago, on September 13th-15th, 1923.

First half of September is complete, here are some climate stats for September 1st-15th, 2011.
Source:  National Weather Service

Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Average temperature:  61.0 degrees/2.4 degrees above average
Precipitation total:  0.50"/1.60" below average
Snowfall total:  Trace
6 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees

International Falls, Minnesota:

Average temperature:  56.8 degrees/NORMAL
Precipitation total:  0.61"/0.91" below average

Twin Cities, Minnesota:

Average temperature:  67.8 degrees/2.5 degrees above average
Precipitation total:  0.02"/1.57" below average

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Dry weather continues into Saturday
-Chance for showers late Saturday Night into Sunday Night
-Another chance of rain for early-mid part of next week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure of 1028mb covered the Central-Eastern Great Lakes.  Another day of dry weather for our area with high temperatures in the middle 50s to lower 60s so still below average for this time of year.  Sunshine was common in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with more clouds from Cass Lake, Brainerd and Aitkin.  Winds Today were out of the south at under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

W-NW 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest for water vapor satellite imagery.  An upper level disturbance was passing south of our area Today as it heads east across Iowa while to our west an upper level trough was in place west of the Rockies.

Tonight:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area with lows in the 30s and lower 40s with some 20s in the typical cold spots.  Winds will be out of the south under 20 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

High pressure will be centered over the Eastern Great Lakes while an area low pressure and cold front move into the Northern Plains.  Dry weather will continue for Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with a risk for some rain showers arriving late Saturday Night.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecast during this period with highs Tomorrow in the 50s and 60s with lows Tomorrow Night mainly in the 40s.  Winds will be out of the south, southeast or southwest at up to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A cold front will pass through the Upper Midwest from Sunday into early Monday...This front will bring some rain showers to our area on Sunday with dry weather returning on Monday the way it looks now.  A new system moves into the Upper Midwest for next Tuesday, this one will also bring some rain showers to our area during the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame.  High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees with lows Sunday Night in the 30s and 40s.  Highs on Monday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Monday Night in the 40s to around 50 degrees.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Low 32 to 37.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 58 to 63.  Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible Overnight.  Low 43 to 48.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Sunday...  Occasional showers.  Mostly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low 45 to 50.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 65 to 70.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Tuesday...  Showers possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 40%.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  65 degrees
Low:  46 degrees

Saturday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  None
Tree:    None
Grass:  None

Sunrise Saturday:  6:49 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   7:17 PM CDT

Tim

Thursday, September 15, 2011

9/15/11: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:22 PM CDT, Thursday, September 15th, 2011

*FREEZE WARNING*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Freeze Warning is in effect from 12 AM CDT Tonight until 8 AM CDT Friday...Counties included in the warning are.  In Minnesota:  Koochiching...Itasca...Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...Pine...Carlton...St. Louis...Lake...and Cook.  In Wisconsin:  Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...Iron...Burnett...Washburn...Sawyer...and Price.  Some cities included in the warning are:  International Falls MN...Grand Rapids MN...Walker MN...Brainerd MN...Aitkin MN...Pine City MN...Moose Lake MN...Duluth MN...Hibbing MN...Ely MN...Two Harbors MN...Silver Bay MN...Isabella MN...Grand Marais MN...Superior WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Hurley WI...Grantsburg WI...Spooner WI...Hayward WI...and Park Falls WI.

Impacts:  Low temperatures falling into the 20s with a hard killing freeze Overnight.  Sensitive outdoor plants and other vegetation will be damaged if left uncovered.

A freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely.  These conditions will kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

*RECORD 24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A trace of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota on Wednesday, September 14th, 2011.  This tied the previous 24 hour snowfall record for the 14th of September set in 1984.

Low temperature report for Thursday, September 15th, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  30 degrees
Brainerd, MN:  27 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  20 degrees
Ashland, WI:  32 degrees
Hayward, WI:  27 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN:  34 degrees
Two Harbors, MN:  27 degrees
Silver Bay, MN:  27 degrees
Ely, MN:  25 degrees
Orr, MN:  25 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  21 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  21 degrees
Grand Rapids, MN:  27 degrees
Aitkin, MN:  25 degrees
Cloquet, MN:  28 degrees
Superior, WI:  27 degrees
Siren, WI:  28 degrees
Phillips, WI:  34 degrees
Cass Lake, MN:  29 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  19 degrees
Kabetogama, MN:  23 degrees
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  22 degrees
Gordon, WI:  29 degrees
Upson, WI:  33 degrees

*Record Low temperatures in the Upper Midwest This Morning*Source:  National Weather Service Chanhassen, Minnesota

Eau Claire, Wisconsin:  29 degrees.  Previous record:  30 degrees set in 2007.
Minneapolis, Minnesota:  36 degrees.  Tied the previous record from 1964 and 2007.
International Falls, Minnesota:  19 degrees.  Previous record:  24 degrees set in 1964.

Note:  19 degree low temperature This Morning at International Falls, Minnesota makes it the coldest temperature ever recorded for so early in the season and also makes it the first time with a temperature in the teens during the month of September.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Another cold night ahead
-Dry thru Saturday...Rain chances return late this weekend and early next week
-No major cold snaps in sight after Tonight

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Large area of high pressure averaging 1028mb was centered near Rochester, Minnesota late This Afternoon.  Mostly sunny skies and below average temperatures were found in our area Today with highs in the 50s which is about 10 degrees below average for mid-September.  Winds Today were southwest or variable in direction under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

W/NW 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis while a potent upper level trough moves into the Eastern Canada and Northeast U.S.

Tonight through Friday Night:

Clear to partly cloudy skies will continue in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with high pressure located to our south-east.  Lows Tonight will be in the 20s and 30s with highs Friday in the 50s to lower 60s.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees.  Winds during this period will be out of the south or southwest under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Dry weather is forecasted on Saturday with highs in the 50s and 60s.  Rain showers will be possible at times from Saturday Night through early next week as two weather systems pass through the Upper Midwest.  Highs on Sunday will be in the 50s and 60s.  Low temperatures for Saturday Night and Sunday Night will mainly be in the 40s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*FREEZE WARNING* 12 AM CDT Tonight until 8 AM CDT Friday.

.Tonight...  Mostly clear and cold.  Frost and a killing freeze Overnight.  Low 28 to 33.  Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Friday...  Mostly sunny.  High 55 to 60.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 38 to 43.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 58 to 63.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 43 to 48.

.Sunday...  Occasional showers.  Mostly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low 45 to 50.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 65 to 70.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  65 degrees
Low:  46 degrees

Friday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  Moderate
Tree:    None
Grass:  None

Sunrise Friday:  6:47 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   7:19 PM CDT

Tim

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

9/14/11: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:27 PM CDT, Wednesday, September 14th, 2011

*FREEZE WARNING*

Freeze Warning is in effect from 12 AM CDT until 8 AM CDT Thursday for the following Counties.  In Minnesota:  Koochiching...Itasca...Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...Pine...Carlton...St. Louis...Lake...and Cook.  In Wisconsin:  Douglas...Bayfield...Burnett...Washburn...and Sawyer.  Some cities included in the warning are:  International Falls MN...Littlefork MN...Togo MN...Bigfork MN...Grand Rapids MN...Cass Lake MN...Walker MN...Pine River MN...Brainerd MN...Aitkin MN...Pine City MN...Hinckley MN...Moose Lake MN...Cloquet MN...Duluth MN...Hibbing MN...Ely MN...Crane Lake MN....Two Harbors MN...Silver Bay MN...Grand Marais MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Cable WI...Danbury WI...Grantsbug WI...Minong WI...Spooner WI...Hayward WI...and Winter WI.

Impacts:  Low temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 20s Tonight with slightly milder temperatures close to Lake Superior.  Some teens are even possible in Northern Minnesota.  Widespread frost and a hard killing freeze is expected Overnight.  Sensitive outdoor plants and other vegetation will be damaged if left uncovered.

A freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely.  These conditions will kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

*FROST ADVISORY*

Frost Advisory is in effect from 12 AM CDT until 8 AM CDT Thursday for the following Counties.  In Wisconsin:  Ashland and Price.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  Ashland WI...Butternut WI...Park Falls WI...Phillips WI...and Ogema WI.

Impacts:  Low temperatures of 30 to 35 degrees Tonight with areas of frost after Midnight.  Sensitive outdoor plants and other vegetation may be damaged if left uncovered.

A frost advisory means that frost is possible.  Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

Weather Tidbits:

*Pagami Creek Wildfire (BWCAW) has grown to 100,000 acres Today (IIS)

*Rhinelander, Wisconsin's visibility dropped to 1 and 1/2 mile early Tuesday Morning due to smoke from the BWCAW fire.

*70 days so far this year with a high temperature above 100 degrees at Dallas, Texas.  This is a new record for the year.  The previous record was 69 days in 1980.  (NWS)

*107 degree high temperature at Dallas, Texas on Tuesday was the hottest temperature for so late in the season and the hottest September temperature in 11 years.  (NWS)

WEATHER HEADLINES:

*Scattered showers of rain, sleet or snow will end This Evening
*Very cold temperatures Tonight with widespread frost and a hard freeze for some
*Chilly airmass continues on Thursday
*Somewhat milder for Friday into early next week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Strong high pressure averaging 1030mb covered the Western Dakotas with low pressure of 1002mb centered in Southern Hudson Bay Canada.  Thickness values have lowered significantly as cold air pours into the Upper Midwest Today.  RUC model analysis as of 4PM shows the 5400 critical thickness line all the way down to Southern Minnesota (Note the 5400 thickness line usually is a good indicator where the rain/snow line will be)  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies were found in our area Today with areas of showers moving southeast across the Northland.  Cold temperatures aloft are mixing down to the surface as the precipitation falls to the ground...This has resulted in some sleet or soft hail to mix in with the rain in parts of our area This Afternoon.  High temperatures Today were only in the 40s and 50s with some locations north of the Iron Range falling to the mid/upper 30s late This Afternoon.  Winds Today were out of the northwest at 10-20 mph with stronger gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Broad 500mb trough was in place from the Northern Plains to Upper Midwest to Central Canada per water vapor satellite imagery.  RUC model analysis indicates that 850mb temperatures have dropped to zero to -2 degrees C in the Upper Midwest Today, the coldest air we've seen in quite some time.

Tonight:

Scattered showers of rain and sleet will come to an end This Evening.  A few spots in the Arrowhead could even see some flurries or snow showers before the precipitation ends.  Skies will become partly cloudy Tonight with high pressure off to our west.  Lows will be in the 20s and 30s with some teens in Northern Minnesota.  Frost and a hard freeze is expected in most of our area by dawn and there could even be some patchy fog.  Winds Tonight will be out of the northwest at 5-15 mph with gusts of 20-40 mph in the showers early Tonight.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

High pressure will center itself over Minnesota Tomorrow before moving off to our east Tomorrow Night.  Partly cloudy skies are forecasted this period with highs Thursday in the 40s and 50s with lows Thursday Night in the 20s and 30s.  Variable winds under 20 mph are expected this period.

Extended Forecast:

Friday and Saturday look dry in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with high pressure to our east and low pressure moving into the Northern-Central Plains.  High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s for both Friday and Saturday with lows generally in the 40s.  Could get some rain showers late this weekend and early next week, although right now it doesn't look like a very big event.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*FREEZE WARNING* 12 AM CDT until 8 AM CDT Thursday.

.Tonight...  Cold with frost and a killing freeze.  Scattered rain and sleet showers early.  Becoming partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 51 to 56.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 58 to 63.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 43 to 48.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  Showers possible.  High 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 20%.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  66 degrees
Low:  47 degrees

Thursday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  Low
Grass:  Low
Tree:    None

Sunrise Thursday:  6:46 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   7:21 PM CDT

Tim

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

9/13/11: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:28 PM CDT, Tuesday, September 13th, 2011

High temperature report for Monday, September 12th, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  82 degrees
Brainerd, MN:  87 degrees
Hayward, WI:  85 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN:  84 degrees
Silver Bay, MN:  84 degrees
Eveleth, MN:  82 degrees
Longville, MN:  84 degrees
Hinckley, MN:  84 degrees
Superior, WI:  86 degrees
Siren, WI:  86 degrees
Phillips, WI:  84 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  83 degrees
Finland, MN:  84 degrees
Ashland, WI:  88 degrees
Upson, WI:  83 degrees
9 miles north of Bayfield, WI:  90 degrees
Solon Springs, WI:  86 degrees

Low temperature report for Tuesday, September 13th, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Hibbing, MN:  33 degrees
Aitkin, MN:  37 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  37 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  32 degrees
Silver Bay, MN:  37 degrees
Orr, MN:  37 degrees

Note:  A strong cold front passed through the Northland Monday Evening ushering in a colder airmass.  Here are some temperature changes from Monday's high to Tuesday Morning's low.

Duluth, Minnesota:  82/43=39 degrees colder
Superior, Wisconsin:  86/45=41 degrees colder
Aitkin, Minnesota:  82/37=45 degrees colder
Silver Bay, Minnesota:  84/37=47 degrees colder
Cass Lake, Minnesota:  81/41=40 degrees colder
Embarrass, Minnesota:  83/32=51 degrees colder
Floodwood, Minnesota:  80/38=42 degrees colder

Rainfall report for Monday, September 12th, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  0.17"
Butternut, WI:  0.18"
Gurney, WI:  0.26"
Park Falls, WI:  0.30"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  0.50"

*Pagami Creek Wildfire update*

Just before 6:00 PM CDT Monday, an evacuation was ordered by Lake County Sheriffs for Lake County Road 7...Cramer Road from Four mile Grade north to Kawishiwi Lake and Wanless Road from County Road 7 west to Homestead Lake.  Note:  Residents were evacuated from 36 addressess in the affected area.

This wildfire has grown to an excess of 60,000 acres Today per IIS report.

Weather History: 

On this date in 1990...A record high temperature of 84 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Cold airmass settles in Tonight and lasts into Thursday
-Scattered Evening rain showers, then dry Overnight
-Frost/freeze potential Tonight, Wednesday Night and Thursday Night
-1st snowflakes of the season may fly in the Arrowhead of Minnesota on Wednesday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A secondary cold front was moving southeast out of Northern Minnesota late Today.  High temperatures were in the 60s to near 70 degrees south of this front Today while 50s were common behind the front in Northern Minnesota.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies were found in our area Today with some rain showers at times in Northern Minnesota with even an isolated thunderstorm or two in spots.  Winds Today were out of the west-southwest, or northwest at 10-20 mph with stronger gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest Today with Monday's system located in Eastern Canada while the next one approaches the Upper Midwest from Western Ontario and Manitoba Province Canada per water vapor satellite imagery.  Behind this second system is a slug of cold air with lowering thickness values to 5400 and 850mb temperatures of zero to -4 degrees C per RUC model analysis.  Note:  Temperatures This Afternoon in parts of Ontario and Manitoba Province Canada have not gotten out of the 30s and 40s!  In contrast, an upper level ridge covered portions of the Southern U.S. with 100+ degree temperatures in parts of Oklahoma and Texas Today.

Tonight:

Cold front will exit Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin before Midnight.  Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible This Evening as this front moves through.  No severe weather is expected, but small hail and wind gusts to 40 mph could occur in a few of the storms early Tonight.  Much colder air will drop south into the area during the night as winds turn to the northwest at 10-25 mph.  Lows will be in the 30s and 40s with some 20s possible in Northcentral Minnesota.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will occur Tonight with areas of frost Overnight especially in Northern Minnesota.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Strong upper level low will be centered just to our N-NE with an upper level trough moving into the Upper Midwest.  An unseasonably cold airmass will cover the Northland during this period with highs on Wednesday only in the 40s and 50s with lows Wednesday Night in the 20s and 30s with some teens even possible in Northern Minnesota.  There could be some Afternoon-early Evening rain showers in Northeastern Minnesota and there is a chance that some snow could mix in with the rain late in the Afternoon especially away from Lake Superior, in higher elevated areas in the Arrowhead.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies can be expected Tomorrow with clearing skies for Wednesday Night.  Winds during this period will be out of the northwest at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts on Wednesday.

Extended Forecast:

High pressure will control our weather for Thursday and Friday with cold temperatures continuing especially for Thursday when highs will only reach the 40s and 50s.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the 20s and 30s with highs on Friday in the 50s to around 60 degrees.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.  Could be some rain showers in our area sometime late this weekend or early next week as a system approaches from the Northern Plains.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*FROST ADVISORY* 2 AM CDT until 9 AM CDT Wednesday
*FREEZE WATCH* late Wednesday Night through Thursday Morning

.Tonight...  Breezy and colder.  Scattered showers before 9 PM, an isolated thunderstorm also possible.  Variable cloudiness.  Areas of frost developing late, especially away from Lake Superior.  Low 32 to 37.  Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming northwest.  Winds could gust to 30 mph.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Wednesday...  Breezy and cool.  Partly sunny.  Afternoon rain showers possible.  High 48 to 53.  Wind northwest at 12 to 24 mph.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Wednesday Night...  Very cold.  Frost and freeze expected.  Clearing.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  Chilly.  High 48 to 53.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 30 to 35.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 58 to 63.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  66 degrees
Low:  47 degrees

Wednesday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  Moderate
Tree:    None
Grass:  None

Sunrise Wednesday:  6:45 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   7:23 PM CDT

Tim