Wednesday, August 31, 2011

8/31/11: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:16 PM CDT, Wednesday, August 31st, 2011

Rainfall report for Tuesday-Wednesday Morning, August 30th-31st, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  0.38"
International Falls, MN:  0.35"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.23"
Hibbing, MN:  0.23"
Hayward, WI:  0.36"
3 miles northeast of Nisswa, MN:  0.26"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  0.24"

Very impressive Mid-Atlantic rainfall totals this month  (totals and avg. thru the 30th)
Source:  National Weather Service

Philadelphia, PA:  19.31".  Average:  3.40"
Trenton, NJ:  14.85".  Average:  3.98"
Atlantic City, NJ:  11.11".  Average:  4.01"
Central Park, NY:  18.95".  Average:  4.44"

WEATHER HEADLINES:

*Low clouds, fog and drizzle continues Tonight and possibly into Thursday for some areas
*Chance for showers and thunderstorms late Tonight-early Friday
*Severe and heavy rain threat for Thursday and Thursday Night
*Labor Day weekend looks generally dry, but a couple hours of showers are possible on Saturday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A warm and moist advection pattern is well underway with a large area of stratus clouds along with areas of fog and drizzle in place over our area Today.  High temperatures on this final day of August 2011 were in the 60s to around 70 degrees with upper 50s at the head of Lake Superior.  Dewpoints Today ranged from the mid 50s to mid 60s and winds were out of the east or southeast under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A fairly strong disturbance which brought the area some rain on Tuesday was exiting to our north-east This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery.  A potent upper level trough was digging south-east across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies with a southwest H5 flow developing ahead of this trough across the Northern Plains.

Tonight:

Low clouds will remain in place in our area along with patchy fog and drizzle, some of the fog could become dense at times with visibilities falling to around one quarter mile.  A warm front currently in Southern Minnesota will remain in that general area during the night while low pressure in Northern Wyoming heads into the Northern Plains Overnight.  Southerly winds ahead of this system will continue to feed warm and moist air into our area.  Instability will also be on the increase Tonight north of the warm front as elevated CAPE climbs to around 1000 j/kg.  The threat for showers and thunderstorms is on the low side Tonight due to a cap (warm layer of air aloft) which will strengthen during the night, however, a few elevated thunderstorms could develop late Tonight especially in Northcentral Minnesota.  Low temperatures Tonight will be in the 50s and 60s with east or southeast winds under 20 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

A warm front will lift northeast into Eastcentral Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin while a cold front moves east out of the Dakotas Thursday Morning...This boundary will reach the International Falls and Brainerd Lakes area by late Thursday Afternoon...And will move through Northeast-Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Thursday Night.

A warm, moist and potentially very unstable airmass will be found across the Upper Midwest on Thursday with CAPE ranging from 1500-4000 j/kg and Lifted Indices from -3 to -8 degrees C.  Dewpoints are forecasted to be in 64-73 degree range with PWS of 1.25-1.75" and 850mb td's of +14 to +20 degrees C.

A strong cap is still expected to lift northeast into our area through Thursday Evening with 700mb temperatures of +12 to +14 degrees C, but there have been some trends per recent model data that the cap may weaken just enough to allow for the development of scattered thunderstorms by late Thursday Afternoon or early Thursday Evening from Northcentral into Eastcentral Minnesota, and possibly into Northwestern Wisconsin...Should the cap not weaken, then the threat for showers and thunderstorms would hold off until late Thursday Evening, or most likely during the Overnight hours.

Note:  There may also be a round or two of showers and thunderstorms affecting mainly Northern Minnesota Thursday Morning on the nose of the approaching cap.

The potential for severe thunderstorms does exist for Thursday and Thursday Night with plenty of instability, warm and moist air in place...This combined with 30-50 knots of 0-6 KM SHEAR and EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR in conjunction with a 65 knot mid level jet and a 80-110 knot upper level jet from the Northern Plains to Red River Valley will support a severe risk.  Large hail and damaging winds appear to be the greatest threats at this time, but there could also be an isolated tornado threat if storms can develop between 3-9PM Thursday.  1KM HELICITY is forecasted to range from 100-200 m2/s2 with 1KM EHI values of around 2 per 12z model data.

High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 70s and 80s with 60s at the head of Lake Superior.  Low clouds, areas of fog and drizzle should burn off in most areas on Thursday, but the exception might be around Lake Superior unless the marine layer can weaken during the day.

Low temperatures Thursday Night will be in the 50s in far Northern Minnesota with 60s to lower 70s elsewhere.  Winds Tomorrow will be from the south or east at 10-20 mph.  Winds Tomorrow Night will be out of the north, east or south under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure and cold front will exit to our east Friday Morning...Some lingering rain showers are possible in Eastern Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin before Noon Friday, thereafter high pressure builds in with dry weather Friday Afternoon into Saturday Morning.  High temperatures on Friday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Friday Night in the 40s and 50s.  A quick moving cold front will drop southeast through our area on Saturday...This system looks like it may be fairly vigorous, but won't have much moisture to work with due to the speed of it.  A line or two of showers and isolated thunderstorms will probably occur Saturday Afternoon and Evening in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as this front moves through.  Dry weather should then return to the area Saturday Night through Labor Day Monday as high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest.  High temperatures on Saturday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Saturday Night in the 40s and 50s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Low clouds...Areas of fog and drizzle.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Areas of low clouds.  Patchy fog and drizzle also possible.  Partial sunshine may develop during the Afternoon.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday Night...  Showers or thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph becoming northwest late.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Friday...  Scattered showers possible during the Morning.  Variable cloudiness.  High 70 to 75.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 48 to 53.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  Afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 70 to 75.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday Night...  Showers possible early.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 48 to 53.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 63 to 68.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  71 degrees
Low:  52 degrees

Thursday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  Low
Grass:  None
Tree:    None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:28 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   7:49 PM CDT

Tim







Monday, August 29, 2011

8/29/11: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:25 PM CDT, Monday, August 29th, 2011

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Small chances for showers/thunderstorms Tonight
-Showers possible at times Tuesday and Wednesday along with near to below average temperatures
-Severe thunderstorms possible Thursday or early Friday
-A hint of fall by Labor Day weekend

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Late This Afternoon...A cold front was moving south into extreme Northern Minnesota with low pressure of 1004mb centered near Hudson Bay Canada with high pressure of 1016mb in Southeast Wisconsin.  A warm W-SW wind was found in our area Today along with partly cloudy to sunny skies.  High temperatures made it into the upper 70s to lower 80s which is around 5-10 degrees above average for late August.  Dewpoints Today were mainly in the 50s with west or southwest winds at 10-20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

W-NW 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.  A vigorous H5 low was moving SE through Northern Ontario Province while a disturbance heads east out of the Northern Rockies, a broad area of 30 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls was accompanying that disturbance to our west Today.

Tonight:

A weak cold front will sag south and should reach Central Minnesota late Tonight.  Moisture and instability is on the low side along and ahead of this front with late Afternoon CAPE generally of 500 j/kg or less with Lifted Indices around -2 degrees C.  A couple showers or isolated thunderstorms may develop especially this Evening in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, but this does not look like a very big deal at this time.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecasted Tonight with lows mainly in the 50s.  Winds will be out of the west, north or east under 20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Tonight's weak cold front will stall out and lift back north as a warm front while an upper level disturbance moves east across the Northern Plains.  Showers could develop at times in our area, especially by Tuesday Afternoon and Tuesday Night.  Instability looks low, but a few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out with these rain showers.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Tuesday Night mainly in the 50s.  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tomorrow with mostly cloudy skies Tomorrow Night.  Winds during this period will be out of the east at 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Southwest 500mb flow will lock in for mid to late week with high pressure in Eastern Canada and low pressure to our west.  A southerly flow of increasingly moist and unstable air will build north into the Upper Midwest with the highest combination of moisture and instability arriving for Thursday and Thursday Night the way it looks now. 

The latest model data from Today shows some rather high amounts of CAPE for Thursday with values of 1500-3000 j/kg with Lifted Indices from -3 to -7 degrees C.  0-6 KM SHEAR and EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR is forecasted to be in the 30-40 knot range with 1KM HELICITY of 100-200 m2/s2 and 1KM EHI of 2-4.  All those parameters are rather high for possible severe weather, but a strong cap looks to build in on Thursday with 700mb temperatures of +12 to +14 degrees C and 850mb temperatures approaching +25 degrees C. 

A cold front will move east into our area by Thursday Evening into Friday Morning, and this front could bring some showers or thunderstorms to our area at that time...Not sure how widespread this activity will be at this time due to the strong cap that is forecasted to be in place later this week, but if thunderstorms can develop they could certainly become severe if the current shear and instability projections hold up in coming days.  There will also be a risk for showers and isolated thunderstorms for Wednesday and Wednesday Night as a warm/moist advection pattern carry's over from Tuesday.

High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Wednesday Night in the 50s and 60s.  Highs on Thursday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Thursday Night mainly in the 60s.

Looks like a cooling trend is in store starting either on Friday or during the weekend, this cool airmass could carry over into at least the early portion of next week the way it looks now.  Doesn't look like it will be cold enough at night to produce any frost, but this could change in coming days.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph, becoming north Overnight.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 71 to 76.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Occasional showers possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Wednesday...  Occasional showers possible.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 65 to 70.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 57 to 62.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 70 to 75.

.Thursday Night...  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 70 to 75.  Chance of rain 20%.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  72 degrees
Low:  52 degrees

Tuesday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  High
Grass:  Low
Tree:   None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:25 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   7:52 PM CDT

Tim

 




Sunday, August 28, 2011

8/28/11: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:16 PM CDT, Sunday, August 28th, 2011

Weather History:

On this date in 1984:  A record high temperature of 91 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
On this date in 1982:  A record low temperature of 34 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Spotty rain showers Tonight
-Monday may be one of the warmer days of the week
-Small chance for showers/thunderstorms Monday Afternoon-Evening
-Risk for showers/thunderstorms Tuesday, possibly lingering into the end of the week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure of 1016mb covered Northern Minnesota late Today.  A weak disturbance embedded in the northwest upper level flow caused some clouds and scattered mostly light rain showers across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today.  High temperatures were generally in the lower to middle 70s with variable winds under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest H5 flow continues Today with Tropical Storm Irene pushing north through the Northeast U.S. into Quebec Province while an upper level low moves slowly E-NE through Oregon per water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area with a possibility for a few light rain showers.  Lows will mainly be in the 50s with variable winds under 15 mph.

Monday and Monday Night:

A weak cold front will sink south and stall out over or close to our area by Monday Night.  Weak moisture and instability will develop near this boundary and this could cause a few showers or isolated thunderstorms Monday Afternoon into Monday Night.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies are expected during this period with highs Tomorrow in the 70s to lower 80s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 50s.  Southwest winds on Monday will become east or west Monday Night.  Wind speeds will be under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Southwest upper level flow will develop by mid to late week which is a change compared to what we have seen the majority of August and it's northwest or west-northwest 500mb flow.  Moisture and instability will gradually increase from southwest to northeast across the Upper Midwest and warm temperatures aloft (CAP) will also advect northeast out of the Western High Plains for Wednesday and Thursday.  Looks like will see an area of low pressure pass west-north of our area for Thursday and Friday...A cold front attached to this low is forecasted to pass through Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin sometime between Thursday Evening and Friday.  This system could bring some showers or thunderstorms to our area Thursday and or Friday, but how widespread these storms will be is uncertain at this time due to the potential cap that may move into the Upper Midwest later this week.  There will also be a risk for some showers or thunderstorms on Wednesday, that would be associated with the warm/moist advection pattern which will lift northeast into our area.  High temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 60s and 70s with low temperatures Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night in the 50s to lower 60s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  Late day showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 75 to 80.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind becoming north at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 69 to 74.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 53 to 58.

.Wednesday...  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 67 to 72.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 57 to 62.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 70 to 75.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  72 degrees
Low:  52 degrees

Monday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  Moderate
Grass:  None
Tree:    None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:24 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   7:54 PM CDT

Tim

Friday, August 26, 2011

8/26/11: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:55 PM CDT, Friday, August 26th, 2011

Weather Tidbits:

-Mandatory evacuation ordered for low-lying areas of New York City for the first time in the city's history according to Mayor Bloomberg as Hurricane Irene approaches this weekend.  (Weatherunderground)
-65 million people are in the path of Hurricane Irene this weekend (MPRweather)
-Today marked the 8th day this month with a maximum temperature of at least 80 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.  August 2010 had 15 days with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees.

Local Storm Report for Friday, August 26th, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*11:18 AM CDT 8/26/11:  0.75" HAIL.  6 miles southeast of Sea Gull Lake, MN (Cook County)

WEATHER HEADLINES:

*Dry air and comfortable temperatures ahead thru Saturday Night
*Small rain chances Sunday-Monday
*Pattern shift for the middle/end of next week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A cold front has moved into Central Wisconsin late This Afternoon with high pressure of 1020mb centered in Western Saskatchewan Province.  A few showers and thunderstorms developed early This Morning into early This Afternoon in Northeast and Eastcentral Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin as this cold front moved through.  Isolated severe thunderstorms did develop during the Morning in Northeast Minnesota with one report of hail in Cook County.  Most of the storms, however, stayed below severe levels with downpours and frequent lightning being the main hazards.  Partly cloudy to sunny skies were found in our area Today with above average temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s.  Dewpoints ranged from the 60s in Northwest Wisconsin with PWS of 1.00-1.40", much drier air with dewpoints in the 40s and PWS falling to around 1/2" are beginning to push S-SE out of Northern Minnesota late Today.  Winds Today were out of the southwest or northwest at 10-20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb ridge stretched from the Central Rockies and Central Plains through the Southwest and Southern U.S. per RUC model analysis.  A fast NW flow aloft with a 100 knot jet streak was located to our N-NW Today with a potent H5 low moving through Central Canada along with it's 60-90 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls.

Tonight:

Clear to partly cloudy skies will be found in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with lows in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 10-20 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

High pressure will move from the Northern Plains to Upper Midwest during this period.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with the possibility for a few brief light rain showers or sprinkles Tomorrow Afternoon or Tomorrow Night, mainly from Cass Lake and Walker, down toward the Brainerd area.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the north, west or east under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

High pressure moves off to our east on Sunday while a weakening cold front moves into the Upper Midwest during the Sunday-Monday Morning time frame.  A few showers could accompany this front as it moves through our local area late this weekend.  High temperatures for Sunday and Monday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Sunday Night and Monday Night generally in the 50s.  Long range models show a SW 500mb flow setting up for the middle and end of next week which should pump warm, moist and unstable air north into the Upper Midwest.  A cold front will move across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest sometime during the Wednesday-Friday time frame and that is when our next best shot for showers/thunderstorms will be the way it looks now.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Less humid.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 71 to 76.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.

.Sunday Night...  Showers possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 70 to 75.

.Monday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 50 to 55.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  73 degrees
Low:  53 degrees

Saturday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  High
Grass:  None
Tree:    None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:21 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   7:58 PM CDT

Tim







Thursday, August 25, 2011

8/25/11: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:27 PM CDT, Thursday, August 25th, 2011

WEATHER HEADLINES:

*A few showers/thunderstorms late Tonight-Friday
*Dry Friday Night-Sunday Morning
*Shower threat returns Sunday Afternoon-early Monday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A very pleasant late summer day with plenty of sunshine along with high temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s.  Dewpoints were generally in the 50s to around 60 degrees.  Winds were from the southwest or west under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

W-NW 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest with an upper level ridge in place from the Rockies through the Central-Southern U.S.  Water vapor satellite imagery shows one disturbance passing E-SE through Minnesota and Wisconsin, ridging and little moisture in place resulted in no precipitation with this disturbance.  The next disturbance was moving east through the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains per water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight:

High pressure to our southeast and low pressure to our northwest will cause a southwest wind and a warm/moist advection pattern which will be aided by a 25-35 knot SW low level jet which will develop out ahead of a cold front which will enter the Western portion of Minnesota Overnight.  A few showers or isolated thunderstorms could develop after 1AM from International Falls through Grand Rapids, and west through Cass Lake, Walker and Brainerd.  Lows Tonight will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees with partly-mostly cloudy skies.  Winds will be out of the southwest under 20 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

A cold front will move through our area from west to east on Friday.  Dewpoints around 60, PWS approaching 1.25", 850mb td's around +12 degrees C will develop along and ahead of this boundary with CAPE generally around 1000 j/kg and Lifted Indices around -3 degrees C.  A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday Morning in Northern Minnesota and through early Afternoon in Eastern-Northeast Minnesota.  The risk for a few showers and thunderstorms will reach Northwest Wisconsin Friday Afternoon.  Moisture and instability are forecasted to be on the marginal side on Friday, but with mid level winds increasing to 40-50 knots combined with 30-40 knots of EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR and 0-6 KM SHEAR, the risk for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will exist, mainly Friday Afternoon over Northwestern Wisconsin.  Damaging winds and possibly some large hail would be the main threats from any severe weather, otherwise expect occasional lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph, quarter inch hail and brief downpours.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tomorrow with highs in the 70s to lower 80s.  Skies will clear Friday Night as the cold front exits to our south/east.  Lows will be in the 40s and 50s.  Winds Tomorrow will be out of the northwest or southwest at 10-25 mph.  Winds Tomorrow Night will be out of the northwest at 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Dry weather can be expected for Saturday and at least into Sunday Morning the way it looks now.  Could see some rain showers return to parts of our area Sunday Afternoon into early Monday.  High temperatures for Saturday and Sunday will mainly be in the 70s with lows Saturday Night in the 40s and 50s with mainly 50s for Sunday Night.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 57 to 62.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible during the Morning and early Afternoon.  High 77 to 82.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming west to northwest during the Afternoon.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Mostly sunny.  High 70 to 75.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Sunday...  Showers possible.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 68 to 73.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night...  Showers possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 70 to 75.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  73 degrees
Low:  53 degrees

Friday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  High
Grass:  None
Tree:    None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:20 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:00 PM CDT

Note:  Duluth/Superior Harbor water temperature as of Today:  65.8 degrees

Tim

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

8/24/11: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:04 PM CDT, Wednesday, August 24th, 2011

Weather Tidbits:

*4 tornado reports in Central and Eastern Wisconsin from August 23rd, 2011 (SPC)
*2011 preliminary tornado count stands at 44 in Wisconsin and 30 in Minnesota (SPC)

Rainfall report for Tuesday, August 23rd, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  0.22"
Hayward, WI:  0.25"
4 miles east of Island Lake, MN:  0.31"
Ashland, WI:  0.56"
Park Falls, WI:  0.59"
9 miles north of Bayfield, WI:  0.27"
Sarona, WI:  0.88"
Webster, WI:  0.73"

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Dry weather into Thursday Evening
-Breezy Tonight
-A risk for showers/thunderstorms late Thursday Night into Friday
-A 50/50 weekend with Saturday looking like the dry day

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Strong low pressure of 991mb was centered in Eastern Ontario Province late This Afternoon with high pressure of 1016mb covering the Dakotas.  A tight pressure gradient was occurring Today between the low and high, this resulted in breezy conditions as northwest winds ranged from 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies occurred Today with a few showers in the Arrowhead of Minnesota.  Highs Today were generally in the 70s.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Strong H5 low with 12 hour 500mb height falls of 60-120 meters covered Eastern Ontario Province and the Central-Northern Great Lakes with a N-NW upper level flow in place over the Upper Midwest on the backside of this system.  An upper level ridge remained in place from the Rockies down through the Southern Plains per RUC model analysis.

Tonight:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area with a surface and upper level low to our east and high pressure to our west.  Lows will be in the 50s with some 40s possible in Northern Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 10-20 mph with gusts over 30 mph, especially This Evening.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Mostly sunny skies can be expected for Thursday with highs generally in the 70s, winds will be out of the west under 20 mph.  High pressure will pass through the Upper Midwest on Thursday before it moves off to our east Thursday Night...A new cold front will approach Western Minnesota Tomorrow Night.  An increase in elevated instability with CAPE nearing 500 j/kg could cause a few showers or thunderstorms late Thursday Night, mainly from International Falls down through Grand Rapids, Cass Lake and Brainerd.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the 50s with southwest winds under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A cold front will pass through our local area on Friday.  Dewpoints in the 50s with CAPE up to 750 j/kg along with around 30-40 knots of 0-6 KM and EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR are forecasted to develop along and ahead of this boundary on Friday...A few showers or thunderstorms could develop as this boundary moves through.  Dry weather will return to the area Friday Night through Saturday Night as high pressure builds back into the Upper Midwest...This high heads off to the east for Sunday and Monday which will allow the next low and cold front to push across the Upper Midwest which will bring with it our next shot for some rain.  High temperatures will mainly be in the 70s for Friday and Saturday with lows Friday Night and Saturday Night in the 40s and 50s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Breezy, especially during the Evening.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 53 to 58.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph This Evening.

.Thursday...  Mostly sunny.  High 73 to 78.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Partly sunny.  High 73 to 78.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 50 to 55.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Sunday...  Showers possible.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 65 to 70.  Chance of rain 20%.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  73 degrees
Low:  53 degrees

Thursday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  Moderate
Grass:  None
Tree:    None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:19 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:02 PM CDT

Tim


Tuesday, August 23, 2011

8/23/11: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:24 PM CDT, Tuesday, August 23rd, 2011

Weather Tidbits:

*5.3 magnitude earthquake occurred in Southern Colorado early Tuesday Morning.  Biggest quake to hit the state in 40 years.  (CNN)
*5.8 magnitude earthquake occurred in Virginia at 1:51 PM EDT/12:51 PM CDT This Afternoon.  It was centered near Louisa, Virginia; 40 miles northwest of Richmond.  This earthquake was felt as far away as New York City, Boston, Detroit, Chicago and Atlanta.  (TWC)

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Humid This Evening with a slight risk for showers/thunderstorms
-Windy and much less humid for Wednesday
-Most areas will be dry Tomorrow and Thursday
-Small chance for showers/thunderstorms returns for Friday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A potent disturbance has been moving E-SE across Minnesota and into Wisconsin Today.  Showers and thunderstorms developed late last night and continued into early This Afternoon generally along and south of Highway 2.  None of the storms were severe, but some lightning and heavy downpours did occur.  Clouds lingered longer than expected This Afternoon, and this kept high temperatures about 10-20 degrees cooler than what was forecasted in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Temperatures late Today ranged from the 80s west and southwest of the Iron Range with upper 60s to middle 70s common in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern-Northeast Minnesota.  Dewpoints Today were generally in the 60s and winds were out of the south or southwest under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

100-120 knot upper level jet was off to our northwest per RUC model analysis while a strong disturbance with a pocket of 60 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls exits to the east of Minnesota late This Afternoon per RUC model analysis.  An upper level trough with another area of 60 meter 12 hour H5 height falls covered portions of Manitoba and Saskatchewan Provinces with widespread 90+ degree temperatures occurring ahead of this upper trough Today from Western Ontario Province, through Southern Manitoba Province, into the Dakotas and Western High Plains.

Tonight:

A cold front currently in Central North Dakota will move rapidly toward the E-SE Tonight.  This boundary will pass through Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin by dawn.  Moisture and instability will be present along and ahead of this boundary, but warm air aloft (CAP) will also be in place and this should lead to only isolated shower/thunderstorm development in our area Tonight.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with lows in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the south or southwest at 5-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph developing once the cold front moves through.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Deep low pressure of 986-992mb will pass north of Lake Superior on Wednesday with the cold front attached to this low exiting our area early Wednesday Morning.  A few showers could move into the Arrowhead of Minnesota on Wednesday as some moisture wraps around the strong low, the rest of the area will be dry during this period.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s to lower 80s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 40s and 50s.  The pressure difference between the low to our N-NE and high pressure to our southwest will result in gusty west winds on Wednesday with 15-30 mph wind speeds likely to occur, but gusts could top 40 mph.  Note:  A potent 110+ knot upper level jet slicing southeast across the Upper Midwest will also help in generating some strong wind gusts in our area on Wednesday.  Wind speeds will diminish to 10-15 mph Wednesday Night as high pressure settles into the Upper Midwest.

Extended Forecast:

Thursday looks like a nice day with sunshine, W-SW winds and low humidity.  Highs will be in the 70s to around 80 degrees.  The next cold front to affect our weather will move southeast out of the Northern Plains, passing through our local area on Friday.  Doesn't look like much moisture or instability will be available for this front, as a result only a few showers or thunderstorms are possible on Friday before dry weather returns Friday Night through Saturday Night.  Next threat for showers or thunderstorms occurs during the Sunday-Monday time frame.  Lows Thursday Night will mainly be in the 50s with highs Friday in the 70s to lower 80s.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 50s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Humid This Evening.  Partly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph becoming west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph Overnight.

.Wednesday...  Windy and less humid.  Partly cloudy.  High 75 to 80.  Wind west at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts possible.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 73 to 78.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 57 to 62.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 73 to 78.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 50 to 55.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  73 degrees
Low:  54 degrees

Wednesday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  High
Tree:    None
Grass:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:18 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:04 PM CDT

Tim

Monday, August 22, 2011

8/22/11: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:04 PM CDT, Monday, August 22nd, 2011

Note:  So far August 2011 is averaging above normal in terms of temperatures at Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location), only 2 other months prior to August has ended up having above average temperatures thus far.  The numbers below represent the departure from the average monthly temperature. 

For example:  January's average monthly temperature is 7.1 degrees...Average temperature this January was 5.8 degrees so we were -1.3 degrees below average for the month.

January 2011:  -1.3 degrees
February 2011:  -0.3 degrees
March 2011:  -1.4 degrees
April 2011:  +0.1 degrees
May 2011:  -2.1 degrees
June 2011:  -1.9 degrees
July 2011:  +4.3 degrees
August 2011:    +2.2 degrees...thru the 22nd

WEATHER HEADLINES:

*Warmer and more humid weather into Tuesday
*Increasing instability leads to a risk of showers/t-storms late Tonight into Tuesday Evening
*Less humid by mid-week with continued mild temperatures

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Southerly flow has developed as high pressure of 1016mb moves off to our south/east.  Warmer and slightly more humid air has moved into our area Today with high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s.  Dewpoints late This Afternoon have climbed into the middle 50s to lower 60s from Northcentral through Eastcentral Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin with low to mid 50s in Northeast Minnesota.  Partly cloudy to sunny skies occurred Today with winds out of the south or southwest at up to 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis shows a W-NW 500mb flow in place across the Upper Midwest.  500mb troughs covered the Pacific Northwest/Western Canada and the Northeast U.S. and adjacent parts of Eastern Canada.  A shortwave trough was heading east across the Northern Plains with hot temperatures advecting east behind this disturbance.  Widespread 90s were noted in the Western Dakotas, Northern Rockies and up into portions of Saskatchewan and Manitoba Province Canada This Afternoon.

Tonight:

A warm front and upper level disturbance will move east out of the Dakotas into Minnesota.  Moisture and instability will continue to increase during the night with CAPE of 1000-2500 j/kg and Lifted Indices from -2 to -5 degrees C.  Dewpoints should reach the lower to middle 60s in most of our area Overnight.  A southwesterly low level jet of up to 35 knots will result in the transportation of deeper moisture and instability into Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin through the night.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop, especially after Midnight.  A few of these storms could become severe Overnight, mainly south and west of Highways 2 and 53.  Large hail, damaging winds, dangerous lightning and heavy downpours are possible from thunderstorms that could develop late Tonight.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows mainly in the 60s are forecasted Tonight along with south or southwest winds up to 20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Low pressure deepens to around 990mb as it passes well to our northwest-north...A cold front attached to this low will move through Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from late Tuesday Afternoon into early Wednesday while a disturbance and pre-frontal trough moves through Eastern Minnesota Tuesday Morning into early Tuesday Afternoon, and through Northwest Wisconsin Tuesday Afternoon.  Strong instability will be in place on Tuesday with CAPE ranging from 1500-4000 j/kg and Lifted Indices from -4 to -9 degrees C...The strongest instability is expected to be in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Tuesday Evening, although the greatest threat appears to be setting up in Northwest Wisconsin and possibly into Eastcentral Minnesota.  0-6 KM and EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR of around 30 knots combined with 1KM HELICITY around 150 m2/s2 and 1KM EHI of 2-4 will support a risk for severe thunderstorms primarily in Northwest Wisconsin with a lesser threat for Northern-Eastern Minnesota the way it looks now.  One negative to the thunderstorm threat on Tuesday will be the warm air which will spread east into our area.  700mb temperatures approaching +10 degrees C and 850mb temperatures climbing to around +25 degrees C could make it tough for convection to develop.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast during this period with highs on Tuesday in the 80s to lower 90s with lows Tuesday Night in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the southwest at 10-25 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Deep low pressure will track through Ontario Province and Hudson Bay Canada on Wednesday with gusty northwest winds, stable air and much drier dewpoints pushing south into our area.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the 70s and 80s with dewpoints falling from the 60s and 70s on Tuesday to the 40s and 50s for Wednesday.  Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.  Highs on Thursday will mainly be in the 70s with lows Thursday Night in the 50s.  Dry weather is expected for Wednesday and Thursday with the next threat for showers or thunderstorms coming sometime Thursday Night or Friday as a new cold front tracks through the region.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible Overnight.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Tuesday...  Warm and humid.  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 83 to 88.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible early.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Wednesday...  Less humid.  Partly cloudy.  High 77 to 82.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 50 to 55.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 73 to 78.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 57 to 62.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 73 to 78.  Chance of rain 20%.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  73 degrees
Low:  54 degrees

Tuesday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  Medium
Tree:    None
Grass:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:16 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:05 PM CDT

Tim


Sunday, August 21, 2011

8/21/11: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:39 PM CDT, Sunday, August 21st, 2011

Local Storm Report for Friday, August 19th, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*2:25 AM CDT 8/19/11:  1.00" HAIL.  Remer, MN (Cass County)

*3:02 AM CDT 8/19/11:  1.75" HAIL.  9 miles west of Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County)

*2:25 AM CDT 8/19/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Cass Lake, MN (Cass County)  Eastward extension of wind damage path from Beltrami County along Roosevelt Road

*7:12 AM CDT 8/19/11:  0.25" HAIL.  Couderay, WI (Sawyer County)

Local Storm Report for Saturday, August 20th, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*4:40 PM CDT 8/20/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  45 MPH.  1 mile west of Cass Lake, MN (Cass County)  A few trees snapped with gust front.

*7:58 PM CDT 8/20/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  57 MPH.  Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  Reported by the Blatnik Bridge MNDOT weather station, approximately 120 feet above the lake surface.

Rainfall report for Friday, August 19th, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  0.13"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.25"
Hibbing, MN:  0.16"
Ashland, WI:  0.13"
Bruno, MN:  0.48"
Cass Lake, MN:  0.15"
Floodwood, MN:  0.33"
Kabetogama, MN:  0.51"
Gurney, WI:  0.29"
9 miles north of Bayfield, WI:  0.38"
Solon Springs, WI:  0.19"

Low temperature report for Sunday, August 21st, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

International Falls, MN:  37 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  39 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  37 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  39 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  34 degrees
Kabetogama, MN:  39 degrees

Weather History:

On this date in 2004:  A record low temperature of 37 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Spotty showers end This Evening
-Another cool night ahead
-Warmer and increasingly more humid for Monday and Tuesday
-Small chances for showers/thunderstorms early in the week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A cold front stretched from Central Minnesota to Central Wisconsin with high pressure averaging 1016mb covering the Upper Midwest.  Lingering cold air aloft, some daytime heating, weak instability and steep Low Level Lapse Rates resulted in the development of a few showers and isolated thunderstorms This Afternoon from Northern Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin.  Brief heavy downpours and occasional lightning strikes have been the main threats out of these storms.  High temperatures Today were on the cool side with middle 60s to lower 70s which is about 5-10 degrees below average for late August.  Winds Today were out of the north under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Strong northwest 500mb flow with a corridor of 100-120 knot upper level winds were in place across portions of the Upper Midwest and Central-Northern Great Lakes per RUC model analysis.  500mb ridge covered the Rockies, Central and Southern U.S. with an upper level trough located just northwest of the Washington state.

Tonight:

Pop-up showers will end before 10PM, otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy skies Tonight...A few of the computer models are showing some showers breaking out Overnight due to some warm and moist advection across Northern and Northeast Minnesota, or generally along and north of U.S. Highway 2 in Minnesota.  Areas of fog could develop in spots late Tonight.  Lows will be in the 40s and 50s, but a few 30s can't be ruled out in the typical cold spots especially if skies remain clear through most of the night. Winds will be out of the north or west under 15 mph.

Monday and Monday Night

High pressure which will be over our area Tonight will move off to the east during this period with a southwest wind developing on the backside of this high.  Moisture will start to increase with dewpoints climbing toward 60 degrees by late Monday Afternoon with PWS of 1.00-1.25".  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Monday and Monday Night with instability spreading in from the west-southwest.  CAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg should build into Western-Southern portions of our area by Monday Afternoon-Night with Lifted Indices from -2 to -5 degrees C.  A few showers and thunderstorms could develop at times, but the overall severe threat looks fairly low at this time.  High temperatures Tomorrow will be in the 70s to around 80 degrees with lows Tomorrow Night mainly in the 60s.  Winds will be out of the south or southwest at 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A warm and humid day is on tap for Tuesday with highs generally in the 80s along with dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s.  A trough and cold front will move east, passing through Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Tuesday Afternoon into Wednesday Morning.  Warm air aloft will advect east out of the Northern Plains with 700mb temperatures of around +8 degrees C, and 850mb temperatures approaching +24 degrees C Tuesday Afternoon-Evening.  This warm layer of air aloft could effectively cap the atmosphere which could prevent much in the way of convection from developing as the cold front moves through during the Tuesday-early Wednesday time frame.  Low temperatures Tuesday Night will mainly be in the 60s.  Dry weather is expected Wednesday with lowering dewpoints as a cold front exits to our south and east early in the day...Highs for Wednesday will be in the 70s to around 80 with lows Wednesday Night mainly in the 50s. 

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind west around 12 mph.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 74 to 79.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Humid.  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 80 to 85.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Wednesday...  Less humid.  Partly cloudy.  High 75 to 80.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 52 to 57.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 73 to 78.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  73 degrees
Low:  54 degrees

Monday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  High
Grass:  Low
Tree:    None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:15 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:07 PM CDT

Tim

Saturday, August 20, 2011

8/20/11: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:38 PM CDT, Saturday, August 20th, 2011

*EF-1 TORNADO IN FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN ON AUGUST 19TH, 2011*
Source:  National Weather Service Green Bay, Wisconsin.

*Timing:  4:43 PM CDT on Friday, August 19th, 2011.
*Rating:  EF-1 with winds of 105 mph
*Path length:  The tornado touched down north of Long Lake, near Long Lake Road and moved southeast to the north side of Wausaukee.  It was on the ground for about 15 minutes before dissipating west of the Menominee River near Mud Lake at 4:58 PM CDT.
*Path Width:  125 yards.
*Path Length:  5 miles
*Fatalities:  1

*EF-0 TORNADO IN FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ON AUGUST 19TH, 2011*
Source:  National Weather Service Marquette, Michigan.

*Timing:  7:15 AM CDT on Friday, August 19th, 2011.
*Location:  Ontonagon, Michigan.
*Rating:  A strong EF-0 with maximum winds of 85 mph.
*The tornado was on the ground for 3/4 miles and the maximum damage path width at it's widest point was about 125 yards.

Low temperature report for Saturday, August 20th, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

International Falls, MN:  38 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  38 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  39 degrees
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  40 degrees
Kabetogama, MN:  42 degrees

Weather History:

On this date in 2004:  A record low temperature of 36 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Couple of showers This Evening
-Cool Overnight/Sunday Morning ahead
-Slight risk of showers Sunday Afternoon
-Warmer/more humid weather early next week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure of 1016mb was centered over the Northern Plains late Today with low pressure to our southeast and northeast.  Combination of cold air aloft, some daytime heating and weak instability caused scattered Afternoon showers and a thunderstorm or two in Northcentral and Eastern Minnesota.  Highs Today ranged from the middle 60s to middle 70s with west or northwest winds up to 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis.  An upper level trough covered the Upper Midwest and Central Canada while an upper level ridge extended from the Central-Southern Rockies through the Southern U.S.

Tonight:

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will come to an end between 9-11PM This Evening.  Gusty winds of 30-45 mph and occasional lightning will be the main threats from any thunderstorm early Tonight.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies during the Evening will become mostly clear Overnight with patchy fog possible.  Lows will be in the 40s and 50s but some 30s are possible in the traditional cold spots.  Winds will be out of the west or northwest under 20 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

High pressure moves into the Upper Midwest, but lingering cold air aloft and weak instability could go on to produce a few Afternoon-early Evening showers across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 40s and 50s.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected on Sunday with partly cloudy skies Sunday Night.  Winds during this period will be out of the northwest or west under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Area of high pressure moves off to our east for early next week with a southwest flow developing on the backside of this high and out ahead of a cold front which is forecasted to move through our area sometime on Tuesday or Tuesday Night.  Warmth and moisture will return to the Upper Midwest out ahead of this cold front.  Highs on Monday will mainly be in the 70s with widespread 80s expected for Tuesday.  Low temperatures will be in the 50s Monday Night with 50s and 60s for Tuesday Night.  Dewpoints in our area will likely climb into the 60s for next Tuesday, and this combined with the warm temperatures should lead to quite a bit of instability along and ahead of the cold front for next Tuesday Afternoon and Evening...Could see a few showers or thunderstorms develop near that boundary early next week.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 10 PM.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  Afternoon showers possible.  High 70 to 75.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 72 to 77.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  More humid.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 80 to 85.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible, mainly early.  Low 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 75 to 80.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  74 degrees
Low:  54 degrees

Sunday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  High
Grass:  Low
Tree:   None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:14 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:09 PM CDT

Tim

Thursday, August 18, 2011

8/18/11: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:17 PM CDT, Thursday, August 18th, 2011

30 day outlook for September 2011.
Source:  Climate Prediction Center

For Duluth, Minnesota:

Equal chances for Above, Below or Normal temperatures and precipitation.

90 day outlook for September-November 2011.
Source:  Climate Prediction Center

For Duluth, Minnesota:

40% chance for Above Average Temperatures.
Equal chances for Above, Below or Normal precipitation.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Risk for showers/thunderstorms thru early Friday Afternoon
-Small chance for severe weather Tonight
-Spotty weekend showers with near average temperatures

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Above average temperatures throughout the area Today as highs topped out in the upper 70s to low/mid 80s.  Moisture has been increasing with early Evening dewpoints ranging from 65-70 degrees in the Brainerd Lakes area with 55-65 degree dewpoints in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds Today were out of the south or southwest up to 20 mph.  Skies were partly to mostly sunny and there have been a few quick moving showers passing east-southeast through Northern Minnesota Today, but these didn't amount to very much.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb ridge extends from the Central Rockies through the Central Plains down through the Southern and Southwest U.S.  A fast westerly H5 flow continued across the Northern tier of the U.S. or on the north side of that ridge down south.

Tonight:

A warm front will lift north into Southern Ontario Province This Evening while a cold front currently in the Central Dakotas moves quickly toward the east.  This cold front will move through Northern-Eastern Minnesota Overnight.  A moist and rather unstable airmass has developed Today across the Upper Midwest and plenty of instability will remain in place through the night with CAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg and Lifted Indices from -2 to -6 degrees C.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in our area Tonight with brief heavy downpours and dangerous lightning being the main threats from these storms.  There continues to be a small chance for isolated severe thunderstorms as well Tonight, mainly west of I35 and south of Highway 2 in Minnesota.  Damaging winds and large hail are the main hazards if a storm turns severe.  Lows Tonight will be in the 50s and 60s.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with winds out of the south or west under 20 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

Showers or a few thunderstorms will remain a possibility into mid-Afternoon Friday in Northwest Wisconsin, and during the Morning hours in Eastern Minnesota as a cold front continues on it's southeast track through our area.  Dry weather will return Friday Night.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tomorrow with highs mainly in the 70s.  Skies will be mostly clear Friday Night with lows in the 50s.  Winds will be out of the west or northwest at 10-25 mph.

Extended Forecast:

High pressure will build into the Upper Midwest this weekend, but the combination of cold air aloft and a possible disturbance or two dropping down into the area could result in a few showers or isolated thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday.  High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s this weekend with lows in the 40s and 50s.  Still looks fairly warm next week with possible 80+ degree high temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday based on recent model guidance.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Humid.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday...  Less humid.  Partly sunny.  Morning showers possible.  High 73 to 78.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  Afternoon showers possible.  High 70 to 75.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  Afternoon showers possible.  High 70 to 75.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 72 to 77.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  74 degrees
Low:  54 degrees

Friday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  High
Tree:    None
Grass:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:11 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:12 PM CDT

Tim

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

8/17/11: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:49 PM CDT, Wednesday, August 17th, 2011

Local Storm Report for Tuesday, August 16th, 2011.
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

*5:20 PM CDT 8/17/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  43 mph/37 knots.  11 miles east-northeast of Duluth, Minnesota.

*5:34 PM CDT 8/17/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  43 mph/37 knots.  Duluth, Minnesota.  Harbor location, along Lake Superior.

Rainfall report for Tuesday, August 16th, 2011.
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth, MN:  0.41"
Brainerd, MN:  0.42"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.21"
Hibbing, MN:  0.19"
Bruno, MN:  0.72"
3 miles west-southwest of Hinckley, MN:  1.12"
3 miles northeast of Nisswa, MN:  0.40"
Cook, MN:  0.54"
Floodwood, MN:  0.50"
Kabetogama, MN:  0.36"
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  0.34"
Ashland, WI:  0.26"
Butternut, WI:  0.29"
Upson, WI:  0.30"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  0.47"
Gordon, WI:  0.52"
Sarona, WI:  1.00"
Webster, WI:  1.08"

*5TH WETTEST AUGUST TO DATE AT DULUTH, MINNESOTA*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, MN.

4.69" of rain has fallen through August 16th, 2011 which makes the period from the 1st-16th the 5th wettest on record at the Duluth Airport. 

The wettest August 1st-16th occurred in 1973 when 7.34" of rain fell. 
2nd wettest:  5.90" in 1972.
3rd wettest:  5.81" in 1953.
4th wettest:  5.39" in 1988.

Weather Tidbits:

*Tuesday marked the 7th time this month with a maximum temperature of at least 80 degrees at Duluth, MN
*16 consecutive days with a high temperature of at least 100 degrees at Houston, Texas.  This in a new all-time record.  (Paul Douglas.  St. Cloud Times)
*39 nights with a low temperature greater than 80 degrees at Dallas, Texas tying the all-time record from 1988.  (Paul Douglas.  St. Cloud Times)
*80 days so far this summer with a high temperature of at least 100 degrees at Wichita Falls, Texas.  (Paul Douglas.  St. Cloud Times)

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Pleasant weather Tonight and Thursday Morning
-Risk for showers and thunderstorms returns Thursday Afternoon into Friday Morning
-Mainly dry this weekend into early next week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Deep low pressure of 990mb was centered in Northwest Ontario Province...This strong summer storm produced some severe weather and possible tornadoes the past two days in parts of Manitoba and Ontario Province along with heavy rainfall of 1-3" in some locations to our north.  Our area was far enough away from the low which resulted in little or no cold air advection Today along with lots of sunshine along with near to slightly above average mid-August temperatures in the middle to upper 70s.  Dewpoints Today have come down though behind yesterday's cold frontal passage, 60s twenty four hours ago have been replaced by 40-50 degree dewpoints Today.  Winds were out of the west or southwest at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb pattern remains nearly the same with an H5 ridge and plenty of heat in the Central-Southern Rockies through the Southern U.S. while a W-NW 500mb flow was occurring north of this heat dome per RUC model analysis.

Tonight:

High pressure will bring mostly clear skies to the area with lows in the 50s, but a few 40s are possible in the typical cold spots.  Could be some patchy late night fog.  Winds will be out of the west or southwest under 20 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

High pressure moves off to our east allowing the next low and cold front to move into the Upper Midwest by Thursday Night.  Southwest wind will pump some moisture into our area with dewpoints rising toward the 60 degree mark.  PWS around 1/2" Today will climb to around 1.00" on Thursday.  Computer models are also showing increasing amounts of instability Thursday Afternoon/Night with CAPE of 1000-2500 j/kg with Lifted Indices from -2 to -6 degrees C...Highest values will be in our southern areas. 

The potential does exist for some showers and thunderstorms in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Thursday and Thursday Night.  A few of these storms could become severe with enough wind shear and dynamics in place.  The best chance for possible severe weather seems to be south of Highway 2 and west of Interstate 35.  Damaging winds and large hail are the main hazards along with brief heavy downpours and dangerous lightning.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected during this period with highs in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the south or southwest at 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A cold front will move southeast of our area on Friday, a lingering chance for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will continue into mid-Afternoon Friday, mainly for Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota.  Dry weather returns Friday Evening through most of the weekend with high pressure building into the Upper Midwest.  High temperatures on Friday will be in the 70s to around 80 degrees with highs on Saturday mainly in the 70s.  Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.  A wave of warm air looks to move into the Upper Midwest sometime the middle of next week per latest long range model guidance.  Widespread 80s may occur in our area next Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly even beyond that time if current model trends verify.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 52 to 57.  Wind west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph This Evening.

.Thursday...  Variable cloudiness.  Afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 77 to 82.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday Night...  Variable cloudiness.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 58 to 63.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Friday...  Showers possible during the Morning.  Partly sunny.  High 73 to 78.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 50 to 55.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 70 to 75.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  74 degrees
Low:  55 degrees

Thursday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  Moderate
Tree:    None
Grass:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:10 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:14 PM CDT

Note:  Duluth/Superior Harbor water temperature as of August 17th:  68 degrees.

Tim




 

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

8/16/11: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 8:08 PM CDT, Tuesday, August 16th, 2011

August 1st-15th Climate Summary for select cities.

Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Average temperature:  68.2 degrees
Departure from average:  +2.6 degrees

Precipitation total:  4.28"
Departure from average:  +2.53"

International Falls, Minnesota:

Average temperature:  65.3 degrees
Departure from average:  +0.6 degrees

Precipitation total:  1.23"
Departure from average:  -0.15"

Twin Cities, Minnesota:

Average temperature:  74.8 degrees
Departure from average:  +2.4 degrees

Precipitation total:  1.45"
Departure from average:  -0.75"

St. Cloud, Minnesota:

Average temperature:  71.3 degrees
Departure from average:  +2.2 degrees

Precipitation total:  2.88"
Departure from average:  +1.14"

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Shower/thunderstorm threat ends by Midnight
-Breezy, dry with near average temperatures for Wednesday
-Chance for showers/thunderstorms return late this week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure averaging 992 mb was in Northeastern Manitoba Province early This Evening with a cold front attached to this low pushing east through Northern-Central Minnesota.  A band of showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall, wind gusts up to 40 mph and occasional lightning strikes developed in western parts of our area at mid-Afternoon...This line of rain continued east, passing through Northeast-Eastcentral Minnesota late This Afternoon and continues on it's eastward journey through Northwestern Wisconsin early This Evening.  Limited instability kept the thunderstorms below severe levels Today as skies were only partially sunny through midday.  Highs Today were in the middle 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints generally in the 60s along with PWS right around 1.50".  Winds Today were from the south or southwest at 10-20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Deep 500mb low and trough in Manitoba Province with it's 60-120 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls was progressing to the east quite rapidly thanks in part to a rather strong 90 knot upper level jet which covered portions of the Northern Plains early This Evening per RUC model analysis.  Upper level winds remained generally out of the west behind this strong summer storm, while the heat wave of 2011 continued to bake the Southern U.S. as a ridge of high pressure continued to cover the Southern Rockies and Southcentral U.S.

Tonight:

Deep low pressure will reach Western Ontario Province with a cold front exiting the Northland by late Tonight.  An area of showers and thunderstorms well ahead of this front will affect Bayfield, Ashland, Iron, Sawyer and Price Counties in Northwest Wisconsin through around 10PM This Evening.  Isolated showers or thunderstorms could redevelop thru Midnight behind this initial batch of rain, but the loss of daytime heating along with just marginal amounts of instability should keep these storms on the weak side with brief heavy rain and occasional lightning being the main threats.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with lows in the 50s with some 40s in Northern Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the south or west at 10-20 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Strong low pressure will be centered well to our north during this period with high pressure building into the Upper Midwest.  Less humid air will be felt in our area along with partly cloudy skies on Wednesday, highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s.  Mostly clear skies are expected Tomorrow Night with lows in the 50s.  Westerly winds of 10-25 mph can be expected Tomorrow with southwest winds under 15 mph Wednesday Night.

Extended Forecast:

A new cold front will move southeast through the area from late Thursday into early Friday.  Moisture and instability look rather limited at this point, but a few showers or thunderstorms could still develop in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Thursday Afternoon into Friday Morning.  Highs for Thursday and Friday will be in the 70s to lower 80s with low temperatures both nights mainly in the 50s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Low 53 to 58.  Wind west to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Breezy and less humid.  Partly cloudy.  High 76 to 81.  Wind west at 15 to 25 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 52 to 57.  Wind west to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 77 to 82.

.Thursday Night...  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Variable cloudiness.  Low 58 to 63.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday...  Showers possible.  Partly sunny.  High 73 to 78.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  74 degrees
Low:  55 degrees

Wednesday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  High
Grass:  Low
Tree:    None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:08 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:16 PM CDT

Tim







Monday, August 15, 2011

8/15/11: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:48 PM CDT, Monday, August 15th, 2011

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

*23 days so far in 2011 with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees
*Thru this sametime last year we had 27 days with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees
*The month's of May, June, July and August 2010 had a total of 33 days with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees with zero days in the 90s
*Total number of days in the 90s so far in 2011:  3

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Risk for showers and thunderstorms mainly for Northern areas Tonight and Tuesday Morning
-Cold front triggers a new round of convection Tuesday Afternoon into early Wednesday
-A few severe thunderstorms possible on Tuesday
-Dry and less humid for Wednesday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure of 1014mb was located east of our area while low pressure of 1004-1008mb stretched from Central Saskatchewan Province to the Western Dakotas.  One cold front covered Central Canada while another one was out in the Western High Plains.  Warm and moist advection pattern was occurring ahead of this system Today with a couple showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting portions of Northern Minnesota.  High temperatures Today were in the middle 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints of 60-65 degrees and PWS ranging from 1.10-1.40".  Winds Today were out of the south or east under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb troughs covered the Northeast U.S. and Pacific Northwest with an upper level ridge over the Southern Rockies and Southern U.S. per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight:

A cold front will be moving into the Dakotas while a weak warm front/stationary frontal boundary washes out in Northwestern Minnesota.  A warm and moist advection pattern could result in the development of some showers and thunderstorms Tonight, especially in Northcentral and Northeast Minnesota or generally along and north of U.S. Highway 2.  CAPE generally under 1000 j/kg with Lifted Indices around -2 degrees C should keep these storms below severe limits, but locally heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning will be possible.  Lows Tonight will be in the 50s and 60s.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with south or east winds under 20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Low pressure will be tracking into Southern-Central Manitoba Province during this period.  A cold front attached to this low will move east, and will pass through Northern-Eastern Minnesota Tuesday Evening, and then through Northwest Wisconsin late Tuesday Night.  CAPE up to 1500 j/kg and Lifted Indices of -2 to -5 degrees C will develop along and ahead of the cold front on Tuesday with 0-6 KM and EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR generally around 30 knots.  A 60 knot mid level jet streak will approach the area from the Red River Valley with a westerly 30-40 knot 500mb flow overspreading the Northland Tuesday Afternoon-Evening.  Some showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tomorrow Morning, mainly across Northern Minnesota.  Redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms should then occur by mid or late Afternoon Tuesday for Western parts of our area...This activity will then spread into Northeast and Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tuesday Evening through late Tuesday Night. 

A few of the storms could turn severe especially Tuesday Afternoon and Evening with large hail and damaging winds being the primary hazards.  Although there could also be an isolated tornado threat late Tuesday Afternoon from Northcentral through Eastcentral Minnesota as 1KM HELICITIES increase to around 150 m2/m2 with 1KM EHI approaching 1.5-2.0.  Heavy rain and dangerous lightning will also occur.  Dewpoints around 65 degrees, 850mb td's >12 degrees C and PWS of around 1.50" will support a heavy rain threat from any thunderstorm.  High temperatures Tomorrow will be in the 70s to lower 80s with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 50s with some 40s in Northern Minnesota.  South or east winds are forecasted on Tuesday with southwest or west winds Tuesday Night.  Wind speeds will range from 10-25 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Deep low pressure will move into Western Ontario Province on Wednesday with high pressure building into the Upper Midwest behind Tuesday's cold front.  Less humid air will be felt in our area on Wednesday with high temperatures in the 70s to around 80 degrees along with a mix of sun and clouds and gusty westerly winds of up to 25 mph.  Dry weather will continue Wednesday Night with lows mainly in the 50s.  The period from Thursday through the weekend could get wet from time to time as a nearly zonal flow sets up and brings with it a few disturbances/cold frontal passages.  Any one of those disturbances and fronts that move through could trigger a round of scattered showers or thunderstorms.  High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 70s to around 80 degrees with lows Thursday Night in the 50s to lower 60s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Variable cloudiness.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible during the Morning.  High 73 to 78.  Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday Night...  Scattered showers and thunderstorms during the Evening.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph, becoming west at 10 to 20 mph Overnight.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Wednesday...  Breezy and less humid.  Partly sunny.  High 75 to 80.  West wind could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 52 to 57.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 75 to 80.

.Thursday Night...  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Variable cloudiness.  Low 58 to 63.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 73 to 78.  Chance of rain 20%.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  75 degrees
Low:  55 degrees

Tuesday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  Moderate
Tree:    Low
Grass:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:07 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:18 PM CDT

Tim


Sunday, August 14, 2011

8/14/11: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:07 PM CDT, Sunday, August 14th, 2011

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Patchy fog redevelops late Tonight
-Mild temperatures thru Tuesday
-Slight risk of showers/thunderstorms Tonight and Monday
-Better risk of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday-early Wednesday
-Some threat for severe weather Tuesday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure of 1016mb extended from Northern Iowa to Central Wisconsin early This Evening.  A very pleasant summer day across the area with high temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s, skies were partly to mostly sunny with winds from the north or southwest under 20 mph.  There was a stray shower or two that popped up during the Afternoon in Northeast Minnesota, but these didn't last too long.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow continued across the Upper Midwest Today on the backside of a potent upper level trough which covered the Eastern Great Lakes, Northeast U.S. and Eastern Canada.  Southwest upper level flow was in place over the Western U.S. and Northern Rockies while an upper level ridge covered the Southwest U.S. and Central-Southern Plains per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.

Tonight:

Just a small chance for showers and possibly a thunderstorm in Northern Minnesota, otherwise it will be dry Tonight with patchy fog possible late.  Clear to partly cloudy skies are forecasted with lows in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the southwest under 15 mph.

Monday and Monday Night:

High pressure will be centered to our east with southerly winds occurring across the area.  Dewpoints will be around 60 degrees with PWS climbing to around an inch.  A risk for a few showers or thunderstorms does exist during this period, mainly affecting the Northern half of Minnesota.  CAPE around 1000 j/kg with Lifted Indices around -2 degrees C will support this threat, although no severe weather is expected but some locally heavy downpours and dangerous lightning could occur.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies can be expected Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with highs in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 50s and 60s.  South or southwest winds will range from 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will deepen as it heads into Western Ontario Province by Wednesday Morning.  A cold front attached to this low will move east, passing through Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin during the Tuesday Evening-Wednesday Morning time period.  CAPE around 1250 j/kg and Lifted Indices around -2 to -5 degrees C will be in place along and ahead of this front on Tuesday with mid level winds increasing to around 40 knots while 0-6 KM and EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR peaks at around 30-35 knots.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop at times from Tuesday into early Wednesday as this cold front moves through.  A few of the storms could turn severe Tuesday and Tuesday Evening with damaging winds and large hail.  Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible as PWS rise to around 1.50" with dewpoints of 60-65 degrees.  High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 70s to lower 80s with lows Tuesday Night in the 50s and 60s.  Drier and more stable air moves in on Wednesday as the cold front exits to our south/east.  Could be some lingering Morning showers, mainly in Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the 70s with lows Wednesday Night in the 50s.  The next threat for showers or thunderstorms looks to occur sometime late this week and or next weekend.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible late.  Low 56 to 61.  Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 76 to 81.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday Night...  Variable cloudiness.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 73 to 78.

.Tuesday Night...  Showers or thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Wednesday...  Showers possible, mainly early.  Variable cloudiness.  High 72 to 77.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 52 to 57.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 73 to 78.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  75 degrees
Low:  55 degrees

Monday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  High
Grass:  Low
Tree:    None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:06 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:20 PM CDT

Tim

Saturday, August 13, 2011

8/13/11: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 2:35 PM CDT, Saturday, August 13th, 2011

Rainfall report for Friday through Saturday Morning, August 12th-13th, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  0.34"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.15"
Hibbing, MN:  0.28"
Floowood, MN:  0.97"
4 miles east of Island, MN:  0.69"
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  0.58"
Silver Bay, MN:  0.17"

Rainfall report for Thursday Night and Friday Morning, August 11th-12th, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

International Falls, MN:  0.28"
Hibbing, MN:  0.27"
Leech Lake Dam, MN:  0.90"
Pokegema Dam, MN:  0.39"
Embarrass, MN:  0.17"
Finland, MN:  0.21"
Silver Bay, MN:  0.13"

Weather Tidbits:
Source:  Paul Douglas/St. Cloud Times

*Consecutive number of days with a high temperature of at least 100 degrees at Dallas, Texas ends at 40.  August 11th's high temperature failed to reach the century mark.  The record of 42 days set in 1982 still stands.
*Wichita Falls, Texas has had 51 consecutive days with a high temperature of at least 100 degrees.  The previous record was 42 days in 1982.
*Waco, Texas has had 43 consecutive days with a high temperature of at least 100 degrees.  The previous record was 42 days in 1982.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Scattered showers and thunderstorms thru mid-Evening
-Patchy fog possible late Tonight/early Sunday
-A pleasant day ahead for Sunday.  Monday doesn't look bad either
-Rain chances return by next Tuesday-Wednesday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure averaging 1012mb was centered along the Wisconsin-Illinois border as of mid-Afternoon with a high pressure ridge averaging 1020mb off to our north and west.  Moisture wrapping around that low combined with daytime heating led to a marginally unstable airmass This Afternoon.  Latest meso-analysis (2PM) has CAPE up to 1000 j/kg with Low Level Lapse Rates of 7.0-8.0 c/km with Lifted Indices around -4 degrees C.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been erupting This Afternoon especially inland from Lake Superior.  Weak winds in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere similar to Friday is resulting in a rather slow movement to these showers Today thus some areas are seeing quite a bit of rainfall tally up, while other spots remain generally free of any rain.  Severe weather has not been an issue Today with virtually no wind shear to speak of and just limited amounts of instability, warmth and moisture.  The main threat from these storms has been from lightning, although occasional gusty winds and possibly some small hail is also occurring as these storms pulse up and down in intensity.  High temperatures Today were in the 70s with upper 60s around the head of Lake Superior.  Skies were partly to mostly cloudy with winds out of the east or north under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery.  An upper level trough and H5 low was shifting southeast through the Great Lakes.  Upper level ridge covered the Central Rockies, Southwest U.S., and Southern U.S. per RUC model analysis.

Tonight:

Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly away from Lake Superior will end between 8-10 PM This Evening...Locally heavy downpours and occasional lightning will be the main threats from these storms with some gusty winds or small hail possible as well in the strongest storms.  Looks dry Overnight with partly cloudy skies.  Patchy fog could develop late Tonight due to the recent rains.  Lows Tonight will be in the 50s with a few 40s possible in the traditional cold spots.  Winds will be out of the north or east under 15 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

High pressure will pass through the Upper Midwest during this period.  Patchy fog will burn off early Sunday Morning but could return once again late Sunday Night.  Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected Tomorrow with highs generally in the 70s to lower 80s.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees with partly cloudy skies.  Winds will be out of the west or southwest under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Monday looks dry with highs in the 70s and 80s.  Low pressure will deepen as it tracks from Manitoba to Western Ontario Province during the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, a cold front attached to this low will move east and will track through our area during the Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Morning period.  Southerly winds will pump moisture north into our area with dewpoints getting into the 60s with PWS climbing toward 1.50" on Tuesday.  Scattered showers or thunderstorms should develop on Tuesday, mainly in Western parts of our area including the Brainerd Lakes area.  The threat for showers or thunderstorms will spread into Northeast-Eastern Minnesota and Northwestern Wisconsin Tuesday Night.  Chances for showers or thunderstorms will linger into Wednesday, but this threat looks to be confined to the Morning hours.  Still a little too early to tell if there will be any severe weather in our area early next week, right now it looks like the better threat would be in Western Minnesota on Tuesday with perhaps more of a heavy rain threat in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Tuesday Night-early Wednesday.  Low temperatures Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s with highs Tuesday and Wednesday in the 70s.  The next threat for rain looks to occur sometime next weekend as another low pressure system and cold front move across the Upper Midwest.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible late.  Low 52 to 57.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 74 to 79.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 75 to 80.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 73 to 78.

.Tuesday Night...  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 50%.

.Wednesday...  Showers possible, mainly during the Morning.  Variable cloudiness.  High 72 to 77.  Chance of rain 30%.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  75 degrees
Low:  55 degrees

Sunday's Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  Very High
Tree:    None
Grass:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:05 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:21 PM CDT

Tim