Friday, July 29, 2011

7/29/11: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:35 PM CDT, Friday, July 29th, 2011

*6th WARMEST JULY TO DATE AT DULUTH, MINNESOTA*
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

6th warmest July to date at Duluth, Minnesota.  Through July 28th, the average temperature is 69.6 degrees.

Warmest July thru the 28th:  71.7 degrees in 2006
2nd warmest:  71.4 degrees in 1921 and 1881
4th warmest:  70.7 degrees in 1936
5th warmest:  70.4 degrees in 1878
6th warmest:  69.6 degrees in 2011

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Isolated showers/thunderstorms for Southern areas Tonight
-Severe risk Saturday-Saturday Evening
-Dry push for most areas on Sunday
-Next threat for showers/thunderstorms occurs early next week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A weak boundary was over Central Minnesota Today and a few showers and thunderstorms have been developing at times near that front from Central Minnesota to Northwest Wisconsin while Northern areas have stayed dry.  Partly to mostly sunny skies covered our area Today with high temperatures generally in the lower to middle 80s with dewpoints ranging from the low 50s in the Arrowhead to around 60 degrees elsewhere.  Winds Today were out of the west or southwest under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A near zonal flow (west-east) was in place over the Upper Midwest while a large upper level high pressure ridge continues to bake areas from the Rockies through the Central-Southern U.S. into the Eastern U.S. per RUC model analysis.

Tonight:

Isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible before 10PM, especially along and south of a Brainerd to Moose Lake to Butternut line.  Severe weather is not expected This Evening, but brief downpours and occasional lightning strikes are a possibility.  The rest of Tonight should be dry in our area with lows in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the south, west or east under 15 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

S-SW 850mb jet of around 30 knots will develop in our area on Saturday out ahead of a southeastward moving cold front.  Moisture and instability will both be on the increase ahead of this boundary with dewpoints getting into the 60s to around 70 degrees with PWS of around 1.25".  CAPE is forecasted to reach the 1500-3500 j/kg range with Lifted Indices from -3 to -8 degrees C.  A strong disturbance will track east, but stay well to our northwest during this period but the southern flank of the energy off that disturbance coupled with the cold front approaching the Upper Midwest should result in the formation of scattered showers and thunderstorms across Northern and Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin especially from Saturday Afternoon into Saturday Evening.

Wind shear will be present ahead of this front with around 30-40 knots of 0-6 KM and EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR while SW winds at 850mb turn W-NW at 500mb.  A 90 knot jet streak will be located to our northwest, around the Manitoba Lakes region with a 60 knot jet streak off to our southwest in South Dakota.  1KM Helicity is forecast to be around 150 m2/s2 Saturday Afternoon-Evening with 1KM EHI values of around 1-2.

There is a threat for some severe thunderstorms Saturday Afternoon and Evening across most of the area with large hail and damaging wind being the main threats along with locally heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning.  The tornado potential is fairly low, although one can't be ruled out especially in Northcentral Minnesota late Saturday Afternoon or early Saturday Evening.

Highs Tomorrow will mainly be in the 80s with lows Tomorrow Night in mainly in the 60s.  Southwest winds are expected on Saturday with southwest or northwest winds Saturday Night...Wind speeds during this period will be at or less than 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Cold front should clear Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Sunday Morning, this boundary will then stall out somewhere in Southern or Central Minnesota for Sunday Afternoon into early Monday.  A push of drier and more stable air will move into our area behind this cold front and this should keep our area dry for Sunday and Sunday Night with the threat for showers/thunderstorms staying south of our area.  Highs on Sunday will be in the 70s and 80s with dewpoints dropping into the 50s for most areas.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.  Another cold front looks to pass through the Upper Midwest sometime early next week, in the Monday Night-Tuesday time frame.  A round of showers and thunderstorms may accompany this system for early next week.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph, becoming southeast.

.Saturday...  More humid.  Partly sunny.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  High 82 to 87.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 50%.

.Saturday Night...  Humid.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 62 to 67.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming west Overnight.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  Less humid.  High 80 to 85.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 58 to 63.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 77 to 82.

.Monday Night...  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday...  Showers or thunderstorms possible, mainly early.  Mostly cloudy.  High 80 to 85.  Chance of rain 30%.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  77 degrees
Low:  56 degrees

Saturday's Pollen Forecast:

Tree:    Low
Grass:  Low
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:46 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:43 PM CDT

Tim

Thursday, July 28, 2011

7/28/11: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:59 PM CDT, Thursday, July 28th, 2011

Incredible rain totals during the past 24 hours in portions of Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin.
Source:  WGN TV.  NWS Chicago, IL and La Crosse, WI.

Galena, Illinois:  14.50"
Dubuque, Iowa:  14.30"/fell in 12 hours!
Sinsinawa, Wisconsin:  10.11"

Weather Tidbits:

*68,028 lightning strokes occurred last night in Eastern Iowa, Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin (WGN TV)
*Winds gusted to 92 mph off Chicago's shoreline with those storms last night (WGN TV)
*Wettest July ever at Chicago O'Hare.  9.80" of rain has fallen so far in July 2011 which beats the previous record of 9.56" set in 1889.  (WGN TV)
*July 2011 is the 9th wettest month in Chicago, Illinois.  The wettest month on record occurred in August, 1987 when 17.10" of rain fell.  (WGN TV)

*2.38" of rain has fallen at Duluth, Minnesota during the past 10 days.
*16 days so far this month with at least a trace of rain at Duluth, Minnesota.
*4.48" of rain so far this month at Duluth, Minnesota which is 0.67" above average.
*Today marks the 13th day so far this month with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.  July 2010 had 13 days at or above 80 degrees with zero days in the 90s whereas July 2011 has had 3 days in the 90s.

Blazing heat continues down south.
Source:  Paul Douglas.  St. Cloud Times.

*San Angelo, Texas:  Tuesday marked the 61st day of 100+ degree temperatures.  This breaks the old record of 60 days set in 1969.
*Abilene, Texas:  47th day at or above 100 degrees.  This breaks the previous record of 46 days set in 1934.
*Tuesday marked the 56th consecutive day with 90+ degree temperatures in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.  This is the 2nd longest streak on record.
*Dallas, Texas high of 102 degrees on Tuesday and another day above the century mark on Wednesday makes it the 26th straight day of 100 degree heat.  This ties for the 3rd longest stretch with August 1952 of 100 degree temperatures.

Weather History:

On this date in 2006:  A record high temperature of 97 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
On this date in 1992:  A record low temperature of 45 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Slight chance for a shower/thunderstorm in far Northern Minnesota Tonight
-Mainly dry thru Friday Night
-Mild temperatures continue into early next week
-Thunderstorm threat increases this weekend, but especially Saturday into early Sunday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Widespread thick fog developed in our area early This Morning, the fog burned off shortly after sunrise with partly to mostly cloudy skies occurring for the rest of the day.  An isolated shower did develop This Afternoon in Southern Itasca County Minnesota, near the Grand Rapids area and a few strong thunderstorms developed late This Afternoon in Southeastern Price County Wisconsin, mainly near the Spirit area.  Outside of those locations it was a dry day.  Highs Today were mainly in the 80s with dewpoints running in the 50s and 60s.  Winds were out of the west under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb low was moving east through the Manitoba Lakes region early This Evening per water vapor satellite imagery.  A west-southwest upper level flow was occurring ahead of this system over the Upper Midwest.

Tonight:

Partly cloudy skies will be found in our area with patchy late night fog possible, although it should not be as dense or as widespread as last night.  Isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible late Tonight, mainly along the Minnesota-Ontario border.  Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with west winds under 15 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

High pressure will pass through the Upper Midwest during this period.  Expect partly cloudy skies with highs on Friday mainly in the 80s with lows Friday Night in the 50s and 60s.  West, northwest or southwest winds under 20 mph can be expected.

Extended Forecast:

Southerly flow develops on Saturday as a cold front moves into Minnesota.  Dewpoints will climb into the 60s to lower 70s with PWS of 1.00-1.50".  Instability will be on the increase with CAPE of 1500-2500 j/kg and Lifted Indices of -2 to -6 degrees C.  Wind shear will also be present on Saturday with around 30-40 knots of 0-6 KM and EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Saturday into early Sunday with a few severe thunderstorms possible Saturday Afternoon and Evening, especially in Northcentral, Northeast and Eastcentral Minnesota the way it looks now.  Large hail and damaging wind would be the main threats from any severe weather, and heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning will also occur in any thunderstorm.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Saturday Night mainly in the 60s.  Sunday and Sunday Night should generally be dry, but a few showers or thunderstorms can't be ruled out mainly in Southern portions of our area, or from the Brainerd Lakes region, east into Northwestern Wisconsin.  Highs on Sunday will mainly be in the 80s with lows Sunday Night in the 50s and 60s.

A new cold front moves across our area sometime Monday Night or Tuesday...Models are hinting at strong MCS development in the Northland as this boundary moves through.  Timing of this system is still somewhat uncertain since it's still a good 4 days away, but recent model data shows that Monday Night and or Tuesday Morning could be a tad stormy.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog possible Overnight.  Low 58 to 63.  Wind west under 12 mph.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 80 to 85.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 58 to 63.  Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  More humid.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  High 80 to 85.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday Night...  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible, mainly early.  High 80 to 85.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 58 to 63.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 77 to 82.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  77 degrees
Low:  56 degrees

Friday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Low
Weed:  Low
Tree:    None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:45 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:45 PM CDT

Tim

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

7/27/11: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:01 PM CDT, Wednesday, July 27th, 2011

Rainfall report for Tuesday Night/Wednesday Morning, July 26th-27th, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Note:  Higher totals are in bold.

Duluth, MN:  0.65"
International Falls, MN:  0.38"
Brainerd, MN:  0.82"
Hibbing, MN:  0.52"
Ashland, WI:  0.40"
Hayward, WI:  0.30"
7 miles northwest of Brainerd, MN:  1.95"
Bruno, MN:  0.78"
12 miles north of Isle, MN:  1.14"
3 miles northeast of Nisswa, MN:  1.27"
Gull Lake Dam, MN:  2.23"
Northome, MN:  0.34"
Floodwood, MN:  0.47"
Pillager, MN:  2.81"
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  0.42"
Upson, WI:  0.74"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  0.54"
Gordon, WI:  1.20"
Solon Springs, WI:  0.68"

Note:  Lightning hits a tree and starts 3 house fires in Duluth, Minnesota at 4:10 AM Today.  The fires were on East 9th Street in Duluth with one house extensively damaged.  No injuries were reported.  Source:  NNC

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Isolated showers/thunderstorms This Evening
-Mainly dry with mild temps for Thursday and Friday
-Weekend storm chances
-U.S. heat wave has killed at least 64 people (TWC)

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

The large complex of rain and scattered thunderstorms which affected most of the area last night and early This Morning exited to our south-east This Afternoon.  Cloudy skies lingered throughout the day in Northeast Minnesota while some clearing took place from Northern to Eastcentral Minnesota and into Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs Today were in the 60s in Northeast Minnesota with 70s and lower 80s farther west and south.  It was quite humid especially away from Lake Superior with dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s This Afternoon while PWS ranged from 1.00-1.50".  Winds Today were out of the west, south or east under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Southwest 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery.  An upper level low was moving E-NE across Manitoba Province Today while a potent disturbance drops S-SE across the Pacific Northwest per water vapor satellite imagery, meanwhile a large ridge of high pressure blanketed the Central-Southern U.S. with widespread 90 and 100+ degree temperatures Today along and south of a line from Central Iowa Northern Illinois.

Tonight:

A cold front in Central Minnesota late This Afternoon will move east, passing through our area Tonight.  An area of high instability has developed This Afternoon in Northern Minnesota and portions of Northwest Wisconsin with CAPE of 1500-3500 j/kg and Lifted Indices of -3 to -7 degrees C.  Low level moisture is present, but drier air has moved in aloft, so even with the instability in place the potential for getting a few thunderstorms to develop is quite low, if any storms did form they should remain below severe levels with lightning and heavy rainfall being the main threats, any activity should occur prior to 11 PM Tonight.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with patchy fog.  Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with winds becoming west under 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Pleasant weather is expected during this period as Tonight's cold front pushes south/east of our area.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s and 80s with partly cloudy skies.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s and 60s with clear to partly cloudy skies.  Winds during this period will be out of the west under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Friday should remain generally dry the way it looks now with highs getting back into the 80s for most areas.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.  Moisture and instability are forecasted to increase this weekend as cold front moves into the region.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday, possibly lingering into Sunday depending on the speed of the front.  Could be a severe risk Saturday Afternoon or Evening, especially for the Northern half of Minnesota the way it looks now.  High temperatures on Saturday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Saturday Night mainly in the 60s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy early.  Becoming partly cloudy during the night.  Low 59 to 64.  Wind southeast under 12 mph, becoming west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Warmer.  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 81 to 86.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 58 to 63.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 80 to 85.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 58 to 63.

.Saturday...  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Partly sunny.  High 78 to 83.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday Night...  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 62 to 67.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 80 to 85.  Chance of rain 20%.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  77 degrees
Low:  56 degrees

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:44 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:46 PM CDT

Thursday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Low
Tree:    None
Weed:  None

Tim

Monday, July 25, 2011

7/25/11: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:15 PM CDT, Monday, July 25th, 2011

Local Storm Report from Saturday, July 23rd, 2011.
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

*11:47 PM CDT 7/23/11:  1.00" HAIL.  7 miles west-northwest of Phillips, WI (Price County)  Occurred in Lugerville Township.

*10:55 AM CDT 7/23/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  51 mph.  5 miles southwest of Phillips, WI (Price County)

Weather History:

On this date in 1989:  A record high temperature of 89 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Pleasant summer weather Tonight and Tuesday
-Lake breeze returns Tuesday and Wednesday with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior
-Possible rain/thunderstorm complex Tuesday Night-Wednesday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A weak surface trough continues to push S-SE Today and as of late This Afternoon this boundary extended from Northern Wisconsin back to Eastcentral Minnesota.  Strong winds in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere covered our area Today along with high amounts of wind shear, instability and moisture is lacking, however with CAPE generally <1000 j/kg with Lifted Indices at -2 to around -5 degrees C.  A few intense thunderstorms have been developing This Afternoon in Southern Upper Michigan and in Southwest Minnesota, but nothing much has been going on in between those two areas.  Highs Today under partly to mostly sunny skies were in the middle 70s to middle 80s with dewpoints of 55 to around 60 degrees.  Winds Today were out of the northwest or southwest at 10-20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Strong 500mb trough/low was moving E-SE across Central Canada per water vapor satellite imagery.  Fast northwest flow covered the Upper Midwest Today on the backside of that system.  500mb ridge was in place from the Central-Southern Rockies, east through the Plains and Southern U.S. while a potent upper level trough with 60 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls covered the Pacific Northwest.

Tonight:

Trough will exit Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota early Tonight, might see a shower or thunderstorm pop up before 9PM in Northwest Wisconsin, otherwise dry weather will be found in our area Tonight under partly cloudy skies.  Lows will mainly be in the 50s but some 40s are possible in Northern Minnesota.  Winds Tonight will be out of the north or west under 15 mph.

Tuesday:

Area of high pressure will track across the Upper Midwest.  Partly cloudy skies are expected Tomorrow with highs in the 70s and 80s but it will be turning cooler near Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the south or east under 20 mph.

Tuesday Night:

High pressure will move off to our east while low pressure heads into the Northern Plains.  A warm front attached to this low will lift E-NE into the Upper Midwest.  Low level jet of around 40 knots will cause a warm/moist advection pattern with PWS climbing to between 1.00-1.75" during the night.  Elevated instability will also be on the rise Tuesday Night with CAPE approaching 1000 j/kg in Southern areas.  A cluster of thunderstorms, possibly severe or in the form of a bow echo are forecasted to develop in the Northern Plains Tuesday Afternoon, this area of storms will then propagate toward the east or east-southeast Tuesday Night.  Severe weather potential for our local area looks rather low at this point as instability will be somewhat marginal, but the wind shear will be strong so some isolated severe thunderstorms can't be ruled out mainly affecting Southern Cass, Crow Wing, Southern Aitkin, Pine Counties in Minnesota, and Burnett and Washburn Counties in Wisconsin.  If severe weather develops, the main threat would be from damaging wind and possibly large hail.  Locally heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning are also possible in the storms Tuesday Night.  Expect skies to become mostly cloudy with lows Tuesday Night in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the south or east under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A warm front will continue to move E-NE across the Upper Midwest on Wednesday while a cold front slides southeast across our area from Wednesday Afternoon into Thursday.  A threat for mainly Morning showers or thunderstorms does exist on Wednesday, thereafter it looks generally dry, although a few showers or thunderstorms could redevelop in spots Wednesday Afternoon and again on Thursday, but coverage should be much less compared to Tuesday Night.  High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 60s and 70s with some 80s possible around the Brainerd Lakes area.  Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.  Highs for Thursday will mainly be in the 80s with lows Thursday Night in the 50s and 60s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 54 to 59.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 75 to 80  but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Becoming mostly cloudy.  Rain developing late.  Isolated thunderstorms also possible.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Wednesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible mainly during the Morning.  High 65 to 70 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 78 to 83.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 58 to 63.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 78 to 83.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  77 degrees
Low:  56 degrees

Tuesday's Pollen Forecast:

Tree:    Low
Grass:  Low
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:41 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:49 PM CDT

Tim

Sunday, July 24, 2011

7/24/11: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 6:51 PM CDT, Sunday, July 24th, 2011

Rainfall report for Saturday, July 23rd, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth, MN:  0.90"
Brainerd, MN:  0.29"
Hibbing, MN:  0.50"
Bruno, MN:  0.46"
6 miles west of Sandstone, MN:  0.74"
Cook, MN:  0.42"
Embarrass, MN:  0.38"
Floodwood, MN:  0.34"
Silver Bay, MN:  0.33"
Finland, MN:  0.29"
Ashland, WI:  0.46"
Butternut, WI:  0.60"
9 miles north of Bayfield, WI:  0.40"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  0.46"
Winter, WI:  0.55"

Weather Tidbits:

*68 degree high temperature at Duluth, MN on July 23rd was the coldest maximum temperature since July 14th when it was 62 degrees.
*Saturday's high of 68 degrees at Duluth, MN occurred at 12:10 AM, temperatures fell into the 50s and remained in the 50s throughout the day.
*6.86" of rain fell in around 3 hours time on July 23rd at O'Hare Airport (Chicago, Illinois)  This makes it the wettest calendar day at O'Hare, the previous record was on September 13th, 2008 when 6.64" of rain fell.

*Record daily minimum high temperature at International Falls, Minnesota*

High temperature on July 23rd, 2011 was 62 degrees at International Falls.  This breaks the previous record minimum high temperature of 65 degrees which was set in 1926.

Weather History:

On this date in 2004:  A record low temperature of 41 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Couple showers/thunderstorms for some areas into Monday
-Mild temperatures most of this week
-Another rain/thunderstorm threat late Tuesday-Wednesday?

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Temperatures warmed up considerably compared to yesterday with partly to mostly sunny skies across our area.  Highs Today were in the 70s to low 80s with dewpoints generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s.  Winds were out of the west, northwest or southwest under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb ridge continues to sit to our south while a fast W-NW H5 flow covers the Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight:

A trough moving into Northwest Minnesota early This Evening will drop S-SE into Northcentral-Northeast Minnesota Overnight.  Scattered severe thunderstorms have erupted near this front This Afternoon in Northwest Minnesota and Eastern-Southern North Dakota.  A few showers and thunderstorms will probably hold together as they move into Northcentral-Northeast Minnesota Tonight, but these storms should not be severe as instability and moisture is less the farther east you go.  Locally heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning strikes will be the main threats from any storm Tonight, with a smaller chance for hail around 0.25" in diameter and wind gusts to 40 mph.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 50s and 60s are expected Tonight with southwest or west winds under 15 mph.

Monday and Monday Night:

A weak trough will continue to push toward the S-SE on Monday...CAPE building to around 1000 j/kg with Lifted Indices around -2 degrees C are expected near this front in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota.  A few showers and thunderstorms could develop Tomorrow in those areas and with around 30-50 knots of 0-6 KM and EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR in place, there is a slight chance that these storms could be severe with damaging wind and large hail as the main threats.  Partly to mostly sunny skies are forecast on Monday with highs in the 70s and 80s.  Lows Monday Night will be in the 50s and 60s with partly cloudy skies.  Winds during this period will be out of the southwest or north under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Tuesday looks dry in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with highs in the 70s and 80s, although a developing lake breeze could result in cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  A threat for showers or thunderstorms should return Tuesday Night into Wednesday as low pressure and a warm front and cold front move into the Upper Midwest.  Severe threat looks low at this time, but some heavy rainfall could occur in some portions of our area from late Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning.  Dry weather should return to the Northland Wednesday Evening into Thursday.  High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 70s and 80s.  Lows Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  A few showers or thunderstorms possible Overnight.  Low 58 to 63.  Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 80 to 85.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 75 to 80 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible late.  Low 58 to 63.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible especially during the Morning.  High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 78 to 83.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  77 degrees
Low:  56 degrees

Monday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Moderate
Tree:    Low
Weed:  Low

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:40 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:50 PM CDT

Tim

Friday, July 22, 2011

7/22/11: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:08 PM CDT, Friday, July 22nd, 2011

Additional information regarding the heat wave that affected the Northland from July 16th-20th, 2011.
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

*Highest dewpoint ever recorded at Duluth, MN was 78 degrees which occurred on August 24th, 2003, this record still stands after this current heat wave.
*77 degree dewpoint occurred at Duluth, MN on July 17th, 2011 between the hours of 4-7 PM CDT.
*A dewpoint of 77 or 78 degrees at Duluth, MN has been reported only 6 times in the last 31 years prior to July 17th, 2011.
*Highest heat index in the Northland occurred just northeast of Hayward, WI in the town of Seeley on July 17th, 2011.  Heat index temperature was 118 degrees!

Weather Tidbits:

*11 days so far this summer with a 90 degree or warmer high temperature in the Twin Cities, MN.  Average for an entire summer is 13 days.  (Paul Douglas.  St. Cloud Times)
*1,149 daily high maximum temperature records occurred between the period of July 1st-19th, 2011 with 3,826 daily high minimum temperatures also occurring during that same time period.  (NWS/NCDC)

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Chance for showers/thunderstorms start Tonight in Southern parts of the area
-Shower/thunderstorm threat area-wide Saturday-early Sunday
-Heavy rain and severe potential especially for Southern areas Saturday-Saturday Evening
-Wind shift to the east results in a much cooler Saturday near Lake Superior
-Weather improves for Sunday and Monday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A couple showers and thunderstorms managed to develop and sustain themselves Thursday Evening and through the Overnight hours in portions of Eastcentral Minnesota through the Twin Ports and into far Northern Wisconsin.  Storms were brief and didn't contain too much rain, but some dangerous lightning did occur.  After this moved out of the way, another warm day was felt across the area with partly cloudy to sunny skies.  Highs were generally in the 80s Today with a few Southern locales getting awfully close to 90 degrees late This Afternoon.  Dewpoints were in the 50s and 60s Today, so slightly higher compared to 24 hours ago.  Winds Today were out of the north, west or south under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Water vapor satellite imagery reveals a SW 500mb flow dominating the Upper Midwest with a potent and negatively tilted upper level trough heading east into the Northern Rockies.  An upper level ridge stretched from the Southern U.S. into the Eastern U.S. while a plume of subtropical moisture extends from the Southwest U.S. into portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.

Tonight:

A cold front which was in Northern Minnesota This Afternoon will push south into Southern and or Central Minnesota during the night as high pressure in Manitoba Province heads east into Ontario Province.  Elevated instability with CAPE around 1000 j/kg and Lifted Indices around -3 to -5 degrees C will be found most of the night in Western-Southern portions of our area, this would include the Brainerd Lakes region, toward Pine City, and east to the Hayward Lakes.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop in those areas Tonight with a threat for heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning.  Severe weather potential is fairly low for Tonight, with a greater threat for severe weather across the Dakotas through Westcentral-Southcentral Minnesota.  Lows Tonight will be in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will shift to the east at 5-15 mph with gusts over 20 mph developing near Lake Superior.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

...A potentially active period of weather is setting up for portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin...

Low pressure is forecasted to move east or slightly east-northeast from South Dakota through the Southern half of Minnesota into Saturday Evening.  This low will then move into Western Wisconsin late Saturday Night.  A warm front will lift slightly to the north, probably reaching the I94 corridor in Central Minnesota Saturday Afternoon with a cold front and trough across the Dakotas pushing east across our area Saturday Night.  A moist and unstable airmass will be found in portions of the Upper Midwest on Saturday with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s along with PWS of 1.25-2.00"! CAPE will range from 1500-4000 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -3 to -9 degrees C.  It appears there will be a very sharp instability gradient setting up right around the I94 corridor per latest model data, areas north-northeast of that line will have less instability with much higher CAPE located in Western, Central, Southern and Eastern Minnesota.  One reason for this will be due to a high which will be centered in Ontario Province, this high will advect dry/stable air on gusty E-NE winds into the Northland on Saturday while the low to our southwest tries it's best to pump moist/unstable air into our local area. 

Right now it appears that Southern Cass, Crow Wing, Southern Aitkin, and Pine Counties in Minnesota and Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer and Price Counties in Wisconsin have the best chance for getting some higher instability resulting in a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms for Saturday and Saturday Evening.  Large hail and wind damage would be the main threats, but an isolated tornado threat could also occur in those areas late Saturday Afternoon thru early Saturday Evening depending on how far north the warm front gets during the day, and where the greatest instability sets up.  There will be plenty of wind shear in place on Saturday to support severe weather and possible supercells whether they would be elevated or surface based with around 40-50 knots of 0-6 KM and EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR along with 1KM Helicities of around 200 m2/s2 per latest SREF model run.  Northern and Northeast Minnesota and far Northwest Wisconsin have a much smaller threat for severe weather during this period, but some thunderstorms could still occur at times.

With the high levels of moisture in the air there will be a threat for locally heavy rainfall which may lead to some flash flooding especially in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Dangerous lightning would also occur in any thunderstorm during this period.

High temperatures on Saturday will range from the 50s near Lake Superior to the 60s in Northern Minnesota with 70s and 80s in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.  Easterly winds are expected on Saturday at 10-20 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.  Winds Saturday Night will be out of the east or north at up to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure exits to our east on Sunday with high pressure bringing pleasant conditions to Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Sunday and Monday.  Highs will be in the 60s and 70s on Sunday and warm to the 70s and 80s for Monday.  Low temperatures mainly in the 50s are expected for Sunday Night with 50s and 60s for Monday Night.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Becoming breezy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 57 to 62.  Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph, becoming east at 15 to 25 mph.

.Saturday...  Breezy and much cooler.  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional showers...Isolated thunderstorms also possible.  High 60 to 65.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Saturday Night...  Occasional showers.  Isolated thunderstorms also possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph, becoming northwest Overnight.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Sunday...  Becoming partly sunny.  High 70 to 75.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 53 to 58.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 78 to 83.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.

.Tuesday...  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Partly sunny.  High 75 to 80.  Chance of rain 20%.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  77 degrees
Low:  55 degrees

Saturday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Moderate
Tree:    None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:38 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:52 PM CDT

Tim

Thursday, July 21, 2011

7/21/11: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:28 PM CDT, Thursday, July 21st, 2011

Rainfall report from Tuesday through around 6 AM CDT Wednesday, July 19th-20th, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Note:  Highest totals are in bold.

Duluth, MN:  0.81"
Brainerd, MN:  0.72"
Grand Marais, MN:  2.92"
Hibbing, MN:  0.64"
7 miles northwest of Brainerd, MN:  0.93"
Bruno, MN:  1.03"
12 miles north of Isle, MN:  0.69"
Dixon Lake, MN:  1.75"
Northome, MN:  0.62"
Floodwood, MN:  1.49"
Butternut, WI:  0.49
Park Falls, WI:  0.33"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  0.78"
Gordon, WI:  1.16"
Sarona, WI:  0.83"
Solon Springs, WI:  1.49"
Webster, WI:  0.89"

High temperature report from Wednesday, July 20th, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth, MN:  91 degrees
Brainerd, MN:  94 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  91 degrees
Ashland, WI:  95 degrees
Hayward, WI:  93 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN:  93 degrees
Ely, MN:  90 degrees
Eveleth, MN:  93 degrees
Grand Rapids, MN:  91 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  90 degrees
Hinckley, MN:  93 degrees
Superior, WI:  95 degrees
Siren, WI:  94 degrees
Phillips, WI:  93 degrees
Cass Lake, MN:  91 degrees
Cook, MN:  92 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  91 degrees
Butternut, WI:  92 degrees
Gurney, WI:  94 degrees
Park Falls, WI:  92 degrees
Madeline Island, WI:  93 degrees
9 miles north of Bayfield, WI:  98 degrees
Winter, WI:  92 degrees

Record high minimum temperature report from Tuesday, July 19th, 2011.
Source:  Paul Douglas.  St. Cloud Times.

St. Louis, Missouri:  81 degrees
Minneapolis, Minnesota:  80 degrees
Moline, Illinois:  80 degrees
Indianapolis, Indiana:  79 degrees
La Crosse, Wisconsin:  79 degrees
Chicago O'Hare:  78 degrees (tied)
Eau Claire, Wisconsin:  76 degrees (tied)
East Rapid City, South Dakota:  75 degrees
Grand Forks, North Dakota:  75 degrees
Dubuque, Iowa:  75 degrees
Rapid City, South Dakota:  73 degrees
Billings, Montana:  72 degrees
Glasgow, Montana:  71 degrees (tied)

Weather Tidbits:

*Today marks the 10th day this month with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees at Duluth, MN (Airport location)
*3 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 90 degrees at Duluth, MN (Airport location)
*404 severe weather reports in Minnesota so far in 2011.  27 tornado reports.  149 large hail reports.  228 wind damage reports.  (SPC)
*496 severe weather reports in Wisconsin so far in 2011.  42 tornado reports.  162 large hail reports.  292 wind damage reports.  (SPC)
*22,998 severe weather reports in the U.S. so far in 2011.  1,655 tornado reports.  7,785 large hail reports.  13,548 wind damage reports.  (SPC)

30 day outlook for August 2011.
Source:  Climate Prediction Center.

Equal chances for Above, Below, or Normal temperatures and precipitation for Duluth, Minnesota.

90 day outlook for August-October 2011.
Source:  Climate Prediction Center.

33% chance for Above Average temperatures with Equal chances for Above, Below, or Normal precipitation for Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Dry, comfortable conditions Tonight
-Slightly more humid on Friday, even more so on Saturday away from Lake Superior
-Risk for showers/thunderstorms Friday Night-early Sunday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Cold front passed through our area Wednesday Night, this boundary has reached Northern Missouri late This Afternoon.  Steamy dewpoints in the 70s the past few days have been replaced with 50 degree dewpoints Today with a fresh W-SW wind at 10-25 mph.  Partly cloudy-sunny skies were found in our area Today with high temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

SW 500mb flow was found in the Upper Midwest Today per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.  A strong upper level low was moving east into Central Canada Today while an upper level trough digs S-SE into the Pacific Northwest.

Tonight:

Deep low pressure will be centered to our north while a weak cold front drops SE out of North Dakota.  Partly cloudy skies will be found in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with just a slight chance for a shower as that North Dakota cold front moves into our area.  Low temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s with west or southwest winds under 20 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

A cold front will become stationary in Central Minnesota as high pressure builds into Northern Ontario Province.  Moisture and instability will start to pool near that boundary with dewpoints in the 50s and 60s with PWS of 1.00-1.25".  CAPE around 1000 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -2 to -4 degrees C will be in place in Southern portions of our area...There will be a chance for some showers and thunderstorms especially by Friday Night...The best chance for some rain will be from Cass Lake and Leader through the Brainerd Lakes, Pine City Minnesota areas, and east into Southern portions of Northwest Wisconsin.  Severe threat is low during this period, but locally heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning strikes could develop in any thunderstorm.  Highs on Friday will mainly be in the 80s with lows Friday Night in the 50s and 60s.  Variable wind on Friday will become east Friday Night at 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will move east out of South Dakota and is forecasted to track through the Southern half of Minnesota Saturday Evening before exiting to our south-east by Sunday.  A warm front attached to this low looks to remain south of our area but a trough will be moving through the Northland from Saturday into early Sunday.  Looks to be a tight instability gradient on Saturday with the I94 corridor looking like the cut-off point between strong instability to less instability farther north.  Moisture will be plentiful with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s in Central-Southern Minnesota, east to Wisconsin with PWS from 1.00-1.75".  Greatest risk for strong to severe thunderstorms looks to be to our south for Saturday and Saturday Night, but some thunderstorms with a heavy rain and lightning threat will occur in our area with an isolated risk for severe weather from the Brainerd Lakes area, east through Pine County Minnesota, and through Southern parts of Northwest Wisconsin for Saturday and Saturday Night.  Large hail and damaging wind looks to be the main threat at the moment, but if the warm front lifts farther north, then there would be an isolated tornado threat late Saturday Afternoon or early Saturday Evening for Southern parts of our area.  Dry weather should return Sunday and Sunday Night as high pressure moves into the Upper Midwest.  High temperatures on Saturday will be in the 50s and 60s near Lake Superior with 70s elsewhere, maybe a few 80s from Brainerd east to Hayward.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.  Highs Sunday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Sunday Night in the 50s to around 60 degrees.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 82 to 87.  Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 58 to 63.  Wind becoming east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Breezy and cooler.  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional showers or thunderstorms.  High 60 to 65.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional showers or thunderstorms.  Low 55 to 60.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Sunday...  Becoming partly cloudy.  High 73 to 78.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 74 to 79.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  77 degrees
Low:  55 degrees

Friday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Moderate
Tree:    None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:37 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:53 PM CDT

Tim

7/19-7/20/11: Additional Storm Reports from Tuesday and other reports from Wednesday.

Issued at 4:16 PM CDT, Thursday, July 21st, 2011

Local Storm Report
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

*3:27 PM CDT 7/19/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  3 miles southwest of Cromwell, MN (Carlton County)  6-8" diameter tree limbs blown down.

*6:18 PM CDT 7/19/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Minong, WI (Washburn County)  Trees and branches blown down, some on power lines.

*8:00 AM CDT 7/20/11:  FLASH FLOOD.  Grand Marais, MN (Cook County)  Flooding on 1st street and Broadway.

*8:34 AM CDT 7/20/11:  HEAVY RAIN.  1.90".  Wrenshall, MN (Carlton County)  Total from Tuesday's storms.

*8:22 AM CDT 7/20/11:  HEAVY RAIN.  5.00".  20 miles north of Grand Marais, MN (Cook County)  Some local roads washed out.  Measured at Golden Eagle Lodge on the Gunflint Trail.

*7:00 AM CDT 7/20/11:  HEAVY RAIN.  2.83".  Grand Marais, MN (Cook County)

*7:00 AM CDT 7/20/11:  HEAVY RAIN.  1.76".  20 miles north-northwest of Grand Marais, MN (Cook County)

*6:54 AM CDT 7/20/11:  HEAVY RAIN.  2.00".  2 miles west of Grand Marais, MN (Cook County)

*11:29 PM CDT 7/19/11:  0.75" HAIL.  Loretta, WI (Sawyer County)

*11:13 PM CDT 7/19/11:  0.75" HAIL.  3 miles west of Loretta, WI (Sawyer County)  Wind gusts to 50 mph also reported.

*8:35 PM CDT 7/19/11:  MARINE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  35 mph.  2 miles east-southeast of Duluth, MN.  30 knot sustained west-southwest wind at the Duluth Lift Bridge.

*8:27 PM CDT 7/19/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  48 mph.  5 miles northwest of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)

*2:28 PM CDT 7/19/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Mahtowa, MN (Carlton County)  Numerous trees down.  Top 3rd of an 8" pine snapped off.

*5:50 PM CDT 7/19/11:  1.75" HAIL.  Couderay, WI (Sawyer County)

*6:10 PM CDT 7/19/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Winter, WI (Sawyer County)  Several branches down.  8" poplar branch snapped.

*5:10 PM CDT 7/19/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Gordon, WI (Douglas County)  Six 12" diameter trees down blocking Highway 35.

*5:40 PM CDT 7/19/11:  2.50" HAIL.  Edgewater, WI (Sawyer County)

*6:10 PM CDT 7/19/11:  2.50" HAIL.  6 miles east of Birchwood, WI (Sawyer County)

Tim

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

7/19/11: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:39 PM CDT, Tuesday, July 19th, 2011

Local Storm Report from July 19th, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

*12:45 PM CDT 7/19/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  50 mph.  10 miles north of Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County)

*2:10 PM CDT 7/19/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  5 miles east of Cromwell, MN (Carlton County)  9" trees snapped.  Large oak tree down on power line.

*2:28 PM CDT 7/19/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Mahtowa, MN (Carlton County)  Numerous maple trees down.

*2:10 PM CDT 7/19/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  4 miles south of Cromwell, MN (Carlton County)  Several trees snapped off over Highway 73.

*6:00 PM CDT 7/19/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  5 miles northwest of Stone Lake, WI (Washburn County)  Many 16" diameter maples snapped off.  Large oak topped and large oak uprooted.

*6:00 PM CDT 7/19/11:  2.00" HAIL.  5 miles northwest of Stone Lake, WI (Washburn County)

*6:10 PM CDT 7/19/11:  1.75" HAIL.  Birchwood, WI (Washburn County)

*5:57 PM CDT 7/19/11:  1.25" HAIL.  3 miles south of Stone Lake, WI (Washburn County)

*5:40 PM CDT 7/19/11:  1.00" HAIL.  8 miles south of Hayward, WI (Sawyer County)  Winds estimated at 50-60 mph.

*5:40 PM CDT 7/19/11:  HEAVY RAIN.  2.15".  12 miles north of Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County)

*5:40 PM CDT 7/19/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Hayward, WI (Sawyer County)  Power out in the town of Hayward.

5:40 PM CDT 7/19/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  54 mph.  Hayward, WI (Sawyer County)

*5:15 PM CDT 7/19/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  6 miles southwest of Gordon, WI (Douglas County)  Large tree down on Smith Bridge Road.

*5:10 PM CDT 7/19/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  59 mph.  5 miles south of Minong, WI (Washburn County)  Trees down along Highway 53.

*4:52 PM CDT 7/19/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  1 mile south of Chaffey, WI (Douglas County)  Small tree branches blowing over on Highway 53.

*3:00 PM CDT 7/19/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  2 miles east of Cromwell, MN (Carlton County)  Several 9" diameter trees down.

*4:55 PM CDT 7/19/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  1 mile south of Chaffey, MN (Douglas County)  Tree uprooted at Wayside Rest.

High temperature report for Monday, July 18th, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth, MN:  92 degrees
International Falls, MN:  93 degrees
Brainerd, MN:  92 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  92 degrees
Hayward, WI:  92 degrees
Silver Bay, MN:  90 degrees
Ely, MN:  91 degrees
Orr, MN:  93 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  93 degrees
Grand Rapids, MN:  93 degrees
Aitkin, MN:  91 degrees
Cloquet, MN:  91 degrees
Siren, WI:  93 degrees
Phillips, WI:  91 degrees
Bruno, MN:  91 degrees
Cass Lake, MN:  91 degrees
Babbitt, MN:  93 degrees
Cook, MN:  92 degrees
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  92 degrees

Rainfall report for Monday through about 6 AM CDT Tuesday, July 18th-19th, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Grand Marais, MN:  0.18"
Ashland, WI:  0.24"
Gull Lake Dam, MN:  0.61"
3 miles south of Ashland, WI:  0.36"
Highbridge, WI:  0.35"

Weather Tidbits:

*21 tornado reports in North Dakota on July 16th and 17th, 2011.  (SPC)
*Record low temperature This Morning at Jacksonville, FL:  65 degrees.  (TWC)
*84 degree dewpoint Today at Minneapolis/St. Paul.  Higher than the dewpoint at Qatar and Dubai, 78 degrees.  Minot, ND also had a higher dewpoint than Dubai Today  (TWC)
*88 degree dewpoint and a 130 degree heat index at Moorhead, MN Today
*78 million people affected by some sort of heat advisory/warning Today.  (TWC)

Peak Heat Index values around Minnesota at 3:00 PM CDT Today.

Twin Cities:  116 degrees
Eden Prairie:  121 degrees
Hallock:  111 degrees
Moorhead:  121 degrees
Willmar:  117 degrees
St. Cloud:  107 degrees
Buffalo:  111 degrees
Redwood Falls:  112 degrees
New Ulm:  113 degrees
Owatonna:  113 degrees
Rochester:  111 degrees

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Scattered thunderstorm/severe risk continues into Wednesday Evening
-Heat and a strong cap moves in on Wednesday
-Much drier dewpoints return on Thursday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

It's been a stormy day across portions of Northcentral and Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as a warm front lifted north into Central Minnesota Today.  Extreme amounts of instability, heat and moisture west/south of that boundary was advecting north into our area Today and this spawned clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms north/east of the warm frontal boundary.  Damaging wind, large hail, deadly lightning and torrential rainfall have been the main hazards out of these storms Today, but late This Afternoon an isolated tornado risk developed in Pine County Minnesota and in Burnett County Wisconsin.  Due to the clouds and precipitation Today high temperatures didn't get out of the 70s and 80s with dewpoints generally in the 60s to around 70 degrees.  Winds Today were out of the southeast under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Strong 500mb trough covered the Pacific Northwest with a southwest H5 flow east of this trough covering the Rockies and Northern Plains per RUC model analysis.  The Upper Midwest was in a fast W/NW 500mb flow Today as we sit just north of the core of the intense heat dome in the Plains.

Tonight:

Warm front analyzed in Central Minnesota early This Evening will lift north during the night.  A S-SW low level jet approaching 40 knots will remain in place across our area while a cap consisting of +14 degree C H7 temperatures push farther E-NE into parts of our area.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms should continue most of the night as extreme amounts of instability, warmth and moisture feed N-NE into our area.  Favorable amounts of shear in place will lead to a severe weather risk with damaging wind and large hail the main threats along with dangerous lightning and heavy downpours.  Lows Tonight will be in the 60s and 70s with south or east winds under 20 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Blast furnace type heat will be felt in most of the area on Wednesday as a warm front shifts north toward the Minnesota/Ontario border with a deep low passing well to our northwest with a cold front surging east into the Upper Midwest Wednesday Afternoon/Night.  S-SW flow will intensify on Wednesday which will pump lots of warm air into the Northland.  850mb temperatures of +25 to +30 degrees C are forecast which will result in daytime highs reaching the 90s in most places with an isolated 100 degree temperature quite possible especially in Southern parts of our area.  Dewpoints on Wednesday will be in the upper 60s and 70s and this combined with the hot temperatures will result in heat indices of 100-110 degrees in all but the Arrowhead of Minnesota.  A strong cap will also cover the area on Wednesday with 700mb temperatures as warm as +16 degrees C!  As the cold front approaches from the W-NW, there may be just enough forcing along it to break the cap, and if that happens explosive thunderstorm development would occur since the atmosphere will be full of energy Wednesday Afternoon/Evening.  Latest model data suggests that CAPE of 2000-4000 j/kg will be in place with Lifted Indices from -3 to -8 degrees C.  Wind shear will also be present with about 30-40 knots of 0-6 KM and EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.  Severe thunderstorms are possible Tomorrow and Tomorrow Evening if the cap can break, damaging wind and large hail would be the main risks along with dangerous lightning and heavy rainfall.  The threat for convection will end from west to east Tomorrow Evening as the cold front moves away.  Lows Tomorrow Night will mainly be in the 60s.  South, southwest or southeast winds are expected on Wednesday at 15-30 mph with winds turning to the west Tomorrow Night at 15-30 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Mild temps, but much less humid conditions are on tap for Thursday as high pressure and a W-NW wind move in behind Wednesday's cold front.  Highs will be in the 70s and 80s with dewpoints dropping to the 50s.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.  Partly cloudy skies are forecast for Thursday and Thursday Night.  The next system looks to move into the Upper Midwest Friday and Saturday, model agreement is not the best with this next system, but a risk for showers and thunderstorms does exist sometime between Friday and Sunday.  Highs on Friday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Friday Night in the 50s and 60s.

*EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING* continues until 10 PM CDT Wednesday for Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...Pine...Carlton...and Southern St. Louis Counties in Minnesota and for Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...Iron...Burnett...Washburn...Sawyer...and Price Counties in Wisconsin.

*HEAT ADVISORY* continues until 10 PM CDT Wednesday for Koochiching...Itasca...Central and Northern St. Louis Counties Minnesota.

*URBAN and SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY* is in effect for Central Itasca County Minnesota until 10:15 PM CDT Tonight.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

"EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING"
Timing:  Until 10 PM CDT Wednesday.

.Tonight...  Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly before Midnight.  Variable cloudiness.  Low 65 to 70.  Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday...  Hot and humid.  Breezy.  Partly cloudy.  High 91 to 96.  Wind south to southwest at 15 to 30 mph.  Heat index values from 100 to 110 degrees.

.Wednesday Night...  Breezy.  Partly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible during the Evening.  Low 63 to 68.  Wind becoming west at 15 to 25 mph.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday...  Less humid.  Partly cloudy.  High 81 to 86.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 58 to 63.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 80 to 85.

.Friday Night...  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday...  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 75 to 80.  Chance of rain 20%.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  77 degrees
Low:  55 degrees

Wednesday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Low
Tree:    None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:34 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:55 PM CDT

Tim

Monday, July 18, 2011

7/18/11: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:05 PM CDT, Monday, July 18th, 2011

High temperature report for Sunday, July 17th, 2011
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

International Falls, MN:  91 degrees
Ashland, WI:  93 degrees
Hayward, WI:  92 degrees
Two Harbors, MN:  90 degrees
Silver Bay, MN:  90 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  91 degrees
McGregor, MN:  90 degrees
Hinckley, MN:  90 degrees
Superior, WI:  90 degrees
Siren, WI:  91 degrees
Phillips, WI:  91 degrees
Floodwood, MN:  90 degrees
Ashland, WI:  94 degrees
Park Falls, WI:  91 degrees
Upson, WI:  91 degrees
Solon Springs, WI:  93 degrees
Winter, WI:  91 degrees

Rainfall report for Sunday and early Monday, July 17th-18th, 2011
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Hibbing, MN:  0.20"
Hayward, WI:  0.96"
Cass Lake, MN:  0.19"
Northome, MN:  0.65"
Walker, MN:  0.15"
Finland, MN:  0.22"
Butternut, WI:  0.24"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  0.49"
Winter, WI:  0.37"

Weather Tidbits:

*Today marks the 3rd day in a row with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees at Duluth, MN.
*Today's 90 degree temperature at Duluth, MN is our 2nd one this month.
*NOAA estimates 62 million people are under an advisory or warning for excessive heat.
*81 dewpoint at Minneapolis, MN on Sunday, July 17th, 2011 ties the previous record high dewpoint temperature of 81 degrees last set on July 30th, 1999.
*86 dewpoint and a heat index of 119 degrees was reported at 6 PM CDT Sunday, July 17th, 2011 in Madison, Minnesota per Paul Douglas report.
*81 dewpoint at St. Paul, MN on July 17th, 2011 was higher than the dewpoint at Fiji:  70 degrees.  Galveston, TX:  68 degrees.  And Dubai:  52 degrees per Paul Douglas report.

Heat Index temperatures around Minnesota as of 4:00 PM CDT Today.

Twin Cities:  112 degrees
Moorhead:  105 degrees
Duluth:  97 degrees
Madison:  118 degrees
St. Cloud:  108 degrees
Aitkin:  105 degrees
Litchfield:  107 degrees
Rush City:  105 degrees
Hinckley:  105 degrees
Canby:  112 degrees
Marshall:  117 degrees
Redwood Falls:  117 degrees
Olivia:  115 degrees
Pipestone:  113 degrees
Tracy:  112 degrees
Mankato:  110 degrees
St. James:  114 degrees
Owatonna:  114 degrees
Rochester:  114 degrees
Austin:  117 degrees

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Hot temperatures persist into mid-week
-Brief break from the high humidity in Northern areas thru Tuesday Morning
-Some cooling near Lake Superior thru Tuesday
-Blast furnace type heat possible on Wednesday?
-Much lower humidity arrives on Thursday
-Thunderstorm potential into mid-week, possible severe storms and torrential rain if storms can pop

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A weak stationary front extended from Central Wisconsin to Southern Minnesota late This Afternoon with a push of drier air nosing south into Northern Minnesota Today.  Dewpoints late Today were in the 70s along and south of Highway 2 while north of Highway 2, dewpoints were in the 50s to around 60 degrees.  High temperatures were in the middle 80s to lower 90s Today with slightly cooler temperatures close to Lake Superior.  Afternoon heat indices were in the 90s to low 100s in parts of our area.  Winds Today were variable under 12 mph.  The atmosphere continues to be highly charged in terms of instability Today with CAPE of 2000-4500 j/kg as of 4 PM per meso-analysis with Lifted Indices of -5 to -10 degrees C south of the Iron Range and Arrowhead.  There were a few thunderstorms in Northeast Minnesota early This Morning, and then in portions of Northwest Wisconsin through mid-Afternoon.  One of the storms became severe along the North Shore, near Finland This Morning while the storms in Northwest Wisconsin stayed below severe levels Today.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A classic summer-time heat wave is in place with a massive 5940 meter upper level high pressure ridge covering the Central Plains, Southern U.S. along with parts of the Rockies, Upper Midwest and Southern Great Lakes per RUC model analysis.  W-NW 500mb flow was occurring across the Upper Great Lakes Today on the northern edge of this heat dome while a nearly stationary upper level trough covered the Pacific Northwest

Tonight:

Dry for Northwest Wisconsin and for the Arrowhead, Iron Range and Borderland regions.  Western-Southern areas may be a different story as Sunday's cold front which was stationary This Afternoon starts to lift back north as a warm front beginning late Tonight.  Some showers and isolated thunderstorms have already broken out This Afternoon in a warm air advection regime in parts of North Dakota and Western Minnesota and some of this activity may affect locations south and southwest of Highway 2 Tonight.  Cass, Crow Wing, Aitkin and Southern Itasca Counties MN are most at risk with a lesser chance for Pine, Carlton and South St. Louis Counties MN.  Severe weather is not expected with the thunderstorms Tonight, but torrential rain is possible due to the extreme amounts of moisture.  Dangerous lightning will also be a threat.  Lows Tonight will be in the 60s and 70s, but a few 50s are possible in the Arrowhead.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected and patchy fog may develop late Tonight, similar to the past few nights.  Winds will be variable under 12 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

A warm front will be lifting N-NE into our area during this period.  Plenty of instability, wind shear and moisture will be in place as this front moves in.  Latest model data shows CAPE ranging from 1500-3500 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -3 to -8 degrees C.  Dewpoints will be in the 60s and 70s with PWS of 1.50-2.00".  The potential does exist for a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms across our area for Tuesday and Tuesday Night, but as it often the case during the summer not everyone will get wet or see a storm.  A few of the storms could become severe during this period with damaging wind and large hail the main threats.  Torrential rainfall and dangerous lightning are also possible.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 80s and 90s with 60s and 70s along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 60s and 70s.  Afternoon heat indices in Northern, Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsinwill climb into the 90s to low 100s once again.

Extended Forecast:

Deep low pressure will pass to our northwest on Wednesday.  Most of our area should be in the warm sector on Wednesday with a cold front moving east across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin late Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Night.  Southerly flow ahead of the cold front will really pump the heat into our area on Wednesday with 850mb temperatures of +25 to +30 degrees C with 700mb temperatures approaching +16 degrees C!  There could be some showers and thunderstorms around Wednesday Morning, mainly in Northcentral-Northeast Minnesota...Afterwards it looks awfully capped, but there could be just enough forcing associated with the approaching cold front to break the cap and allow for some explosive thunderstorm development sometime late Wednesday Afternoon or Night.  If thunderstorms develop Wednesday or Wednesday Night they could be severe with high winds, hail, very heavy rains, dangerous lightning and an isolated tornado risk.  High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 90s for most areas and it's possible that a few locales could approach 100 degrees!  Dewpoints from 68-76 degrees combined with the expected high temperatures on Wednesday will produce dangerous heat indices of 100-110 degrees in parts of our area.  Cold front should exit to our east for Thursday with much drier air moving into our area with dewpoints crashing into the 50s.  Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 60s and 70s with highs on Thursday mainly in the 80s with lows Thursday Night in the 50s and 60s.  Dry weather is forecast for Thursday and Thursday Night.

Note:  *HEAT ADVISORY* remains in effect until 10 PM CDT Wednesday for Koochiching...Itasca...Central and Northern St. Louis Counties Minnesota.

Note:  *EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING* remains in effect until 10 PM CDT Wednesday for Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...Pine...Carlton...and Southern St. Louis Counties in Minnesota and for Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...Iron...Burnett...Washburn...Sawyer...and Price Counties in Wisconsin.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

"EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING"
Timing:  Until 10 PM CDT Wednesday

.Tonight...  Warm and muggy.  Partly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible late.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 67 to 72.  Wind east under 12 mph.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday...  Warm and muggy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 83 to 88 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday Night...  Warm and muggy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  Variable cloudiness.  Low 70 to 75.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday...  Hot and muggy.  Partly cloudy.  High 91 to 96.

.Wednesday Night...  Warm and muggy.  Partly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  Low 70 to 75.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday...  Less humid.  Partly cloudy.  High 82 to 87.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 58 to 63.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 80 to 85.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  77 degrees
Low:  55 degrees

Tuesday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Low
Tree:    None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:33 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:56 PM CDT

Note:  Duluth/Superior Harbor water temperature for Today:  70.2 degrees.

Tim

July 17th-18th, 2011 STORM REPORTS

Issued at 3:48 PM CDT, Monday, July 18th, 2011

Local Storm Report:
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

*6:50 AM CDT 7/18/11:  1.00" HAIL.  3 miles east of Finland, MN (Lake County)

*6:50 PM CDT 7/17/11:  LIGHTNING.  Mercer, WI (Iron County)  Lightning hit a shed and started a fire on Fisher Lake Road in Mercer.

*7:15 PM CDT 7/17/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  1 mile northeast of Turtle Flambeau, WI (Iron County)  Some campers stranded on the flowage.  Their canoes or watercraft were blown away from the campsite.

*7:00 PM CDT 7/17/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Park Falls, WI (Price County)  Power poles blown down in addition to tree damage.

*7:45 PM CDT 7/17/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  8 miles northeast of Phillips, WI (Price County)  Tree limbs and power lines down in the Township of Emery.

*7:42 PM CDT 7/17/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Hayward, WI (Sawyer County)  Multiple reports of trees blown down and tree limbs bringing down power lines in and around Hayward.

*5:50 PM CDT 7/17/11:  LIGHTNING.  Solon Springs, WI (Douglas County)  Barnes:  Lightning hit a boat lift canopy and burned the boat.  Shortly after a house was hit and was on fire.

*7:10 PM CDT 7/17/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  1 mile east-southeast of Turtle Flambeau (Iron County)  Trees blown down near Fishermans Landing.  Dispatch also reports trees blown down in several other parts of the city.

*7:00 PM CDT 7/17/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Park Falls, WI (Price County)  60-70 mph winds.  12-14" trees down on County Road E.

*6:55 PM CDT 7/17/11:  MARINE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  5 miles east-southeast of Duluth, MN.  35 mph.

*6:05 PM CDT 7/17/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Drummond, WI (Bayfield County)  Trees blown down around the Drummond area.

*6:45 PM CDT 7/17/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  Glidden, WI (Ashland County)  44 mph.

*6:18 PM CDT 7/17/11:  0.75" HAIL.  Mercer, WI (Iron County)

*5:50 PM CDT 7/17/11:  LIGHTNING.  Upper Eau Claire Lake (Bayfield County)  2 houses on fire due to lightning strikes.  One was on Lake Road.  The other one was on Robinson Lake Road.

*6:03 PM CDT 7/17/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Grand View, WI (Bayfield County)  Trees blown down near Highway 63 around the Grand View area.  Several other reports from Bayfield dispatch of trees blown down.

*5:48 PM CDT 7/17/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  Hibbing, MN (St. Louis County)  45 mph

*4:16 PM CDT 7/17/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  1 mile north of Squaw Lake, MN (Itasca County)  Large tree across road.

*4:10 PM CDT 7/17/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Mizpah, MN (Koochiching County)  Tree branch down.

Tim

Saturday, July 16, 2011

7/16/11: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:17 PM CDT, Saturday, July 16th, 2011

Climate Summary for select Minnesota cities.  Valid July 1st-15th, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Average monthly temperature:  68.2 degrees/3.3 degrees Above Average
7 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees
1 day so far this month with a high temperature of at least 90 degrees

Precipitation total:  2.10"/0.01" Below Average
8 days so far this month with at least a trace of rain

International Falls, Minnesota:

Average monthly temperature:  65.8 degrees/0.3 degrees Above Average
10 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees

Precipitation total:  1.70"/0.05" Below Average
6 days so far this month with at least a trace of rain

Twin Cities, Minnesota:

Average monthly temperature:  76.9 degrees/4.2 degrees Above Average
7 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees
4 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 90 degrees

Precipitation total:  2.74"/0.76" Above Average
8 days so far this month with at least a trace of rain

St. Cloud, Minnesota:

Average monthly temperature:  72.9 degrees/3.4 degrees Above Average
10 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees
2 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 90 degrees

Precipitation total:  4.54"/2.85" Above Average
7 days so far this month with at least a trace of rain

Rainfall report for Friday, July 15th, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Hayward, WI:  0.54"
6 miles west of Sandstone, MN:  0.28"
Butternut, WI:  0.23"
Gurney, WI:  0.23"
Upson, WI:  0.23"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  1.17"
Webster, WI:  0.22"
Winter, WI:  0.43"

Rounds of heavy rainfall hit portions of Central, Southern and Eastern Minnesota on Friday and again Saturday Morning, July 15th-16th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Chanhassen, MN.

Minneapolis, MN:  2.91"
St. Cloud, MN:  1.76"
Alexandria, MN:  2.93"
Crystal, MN:  4.02"
St. Paul, MN:  3.00"
Buffalo, MN:  2.44"
Fridley, MN:  4.68"
Jordan, MN:  3.75"
Brooklyn Center, MN:  5.20"

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Ring of fire pattern setting up
-Tricky forecast ahead, especially near Lake Superior
-Heat and humidity last well into next week
-Risk for severe storms the next few days for portions of the area

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High temperatures reached the 80s in most areas Today with even a 90 degree temperature reported at Ashland, WI just before 4 PM Today.  The only cooling was in the Duluth Harbor where temperatures remained in the 70s Today.  Dewpoints are on the high side with readings in the upper 60s to middle 70s.  Late Afternoon heat indices have reached the lower 90s in a few cities around our area including at the Duluth Airport.  Winds Today were variable under 15 mph.  Partly to mostly sunny skies were found in our area Today with a small complex of showers and thunderstorms affecting portions of Koochiching and Northern Itasca Counties in Northern Minnesota, these storms did fall apart quite rapidly as they moved farther toward the east.

Other heat index values around Minnesota as of 4 PM CDT Today:

Hallock:  102 degrees
Moorhead:  108 degrees
Madison:  108 degrees
Montevideo:  111 degrees
Canby:  106 degrees
Redwood Falls:  107 degrees
Jackson:  102 degrees
St. James:  105 degrees
Fairmont:  105 degrees
Albert Lea:  102 degrees
Rochester:  100 degrees

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Massive 500mb ridge was in place across the Central U.S. while upper level troughs were found in the Western U.S. and the Northeast U.S. per RUC model analysis.  Water vapor satellite imagery shows a large plume of subtropical moisture extending from the Southwest U.S. through the Central Plains and portions of the Upper Midwest with a couple of disturbances riding around the massive H5 ridge.  Jet stream winds are strongest from the Rockies to Northern Plains into Northern Minnesota and Central Canada, or on the west-northwest side of the core of the intense heat our south.

Tonight through Sunday Night:

Strong instability, wind shear and deep moisture will be in place throughout our area.  CAPE of 2000-4000 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -3 to -9 degrees C along with dewpoints in the upper 60s to upper 70s and PWS ranging from 1.25-1.75" will be common during this period.  0-6 KM and EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR are forecasted to range from 40-60 knots while an upper level jet >75 knots will be off to our west-north.  The atmosphere will also be capped as 700mb temperatures remain in the +12 to +14 degree C range with areas north of the Iron Range seeing slightly cooler H7 temperatures.  The best chance for scattered thunderstorms Tonight will be in Northern Minnesota, generally affecting Koochiching, Itasca, Northern St. Louis, Lake and Cook Counties Minnesota.  Sunday and Sunday Night will see a cold front drop S-SE into the area which will result in a threat for scattered thunderstorms setting up farther south, including Northwest Wisconsin, Eastcentral Minnesota with Northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead continuing to have a threat for storms as well.  Any thunderstorm that develops through Sunday Night could become severe with large hail and damaging wind being the main threats along with torrential downpours and dangerous lightning.  Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy during this period with low temperatures Tonight and Sunday Night in the 60s and 70s with some 50s possible near Lake Superior for Sunday Night.  High temperatures Tomorrow will be in the 80s and 90s.  Winds will be out of the south or east through Sunday, and from the south, east or north Sunday Night.  Wind speeds through this period will be under 20 mph. 

Extended Forecast:

Cold front will become stationary somewhere in Southern and or Central Minnesota on Monday as high pressure passes by to our N-NE early next week.  This boundary will lift north as a warm front for Tuesday and Wednesday while another cold front moves east out of the Northern Plains the middle of next week.  While all this is happenening a persistent and large ridge of high pressure will remain in place to our south with fast winds in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere occurring on the west-north side of the core of the intense heat.  Our area will be influenced by both the heat as well as possible thunderstorm clusters that develop to our W-NW and track E-SE next week...These storms are often high wind producers as they ride up and over the hot air dome.  Temperature forecasts will be tricky early next week, especially near Lake Superior.  The potential does exist for the marine layer to intensify especially on Monday, and possibly on Tuesday...If that happens then high temperatures would likely stay in the 60s closer to Lake Superior.  Inland locations should remain in the 80s and 90s for daytime highs for both Monday and Tuesday.  Low temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s Monday Night and Tuesday Night.  Dewpoints should also remain on the high side for most areas with values in the 60s and 70s for the early to middle portion of next week.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

"EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING"
Timing:  Until 10 PM CDT Wednesday.

.Tonight...  Humid.  Partly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible.  Warm.  Low 67 to 72.  Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Sunday...  Very warm and humid.  Variable cloudiness.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.  High 86 to 91 but it may be cooler at times closer to Lake Superior.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Sunday Night...  Humid.  Variable cloudiness.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Monday...  Humid.  Partly sunny.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  High 80 to 85 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  High 80 to 85 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  Low 65 to 70.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  High 85 to 90.  Chance of rain 20%.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  77 degrees
Low:  55 degrees

Sunday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Low
Tree:    None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:31 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:58 PM CDT

Tim

HEAT HEADLINES***UPDATED

Issued at 3:52 PM CDT, Saturday, July 16th, 2011

*EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING*
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Excessive Heat Warning is in effect until 10 PM CDT Wednesday for the following Counties:  In Minnesota:  Southern Itasca...Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...Pine...Carlton...and Southern St. Louis.  In Wisconsin:  Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...Iron...Burnett...Washburn...Sawyer...and Price.  Some cities included in the warning are:  Grand Rapids MN...Cass Lake MN...Walker MN...Leader MN...Brainerd MN...Aitkin MN...Hill City MN...McGregor MN...Pine City MN...Hinckley MN...Moose Lake MN...Wright MN...Duluth MN...Floodwood MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Cable WI...Ashland WI...Butternut WI...Upson WI...Hurley WI...Montreal WI...Mercer WI...Danbury WI...Siren WI...Grantsburg WI...Minong WI...Shell Lake WI...Hayward WI...Winter WI...Park Falls WI...Phillips WI...and Ogema WI.

Impacts:  Afternoon temperatures will reach well into the 90s away from the Lake Superior Shore.  Overnight temperatures will remain in the 70s.  Heat index values around 100 degrees and may approach 110 degrees each Afternoon.  Muscle cramps and heat exhaustion are possible with prolonged exposure and or physical activity.  There is even a threat of sun stroke.

An excessive heat warning means that a prolonged period of dangerously hot temperatures will occur.  The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a dangerous situation in which heat illnessess are likely.  Drink plenty of fluids, stay in air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.

*HEAT ADVISORY*
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Heat Advisory is in effect until 10 PM CDT Wednesday for the following Counties.  In Minnesota:  Koochiching...Northern Itasca...Central and Northern St. Louis...Lake...and Cook.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  International Falls MN...Littlefork MN...Bigfork MN...Togo MN...Hibbing MN...Ely MN...Orr MN...Crane Lake MN...Two Harbors MN...Silver Bay MN...Finland MN...Lutsen MN...and Grand Marais MN.

Impacts:  Afternoon temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s away from the Lake Superior Shore.  Overnight temperatures will remain in the lower 70s.  Heat index values will approach 100 degrees each Afternoon.  Muscle cramps and heat exhaustion are possible with prolonged exposure and or physical activity.

A heat advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected.  The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnessess are possible.  Drink plenty of fluids, stay in air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.

Tim

Friday, July 15, 2011

7/15/11: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:42 PM CDT, Friday, July 15th, 2011

Weather History:

On this date in 2006:  A record high temperature of 96 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Low confidence forecast through early next week
-Thunderstorm timing and where they occur is very uncertain
-Marine layer may come and go near Lake Superior into early next week
-Dangerous combination of heat/humidity for Inland locations thru at least early next week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Warm front has remained in Southern Minnesota Today due in part to a complex of strong to severe thunderstorms which formed early This Morning in Westcentral Minnesota, this complex of storms then tracked E-SE through portions of Central, Southern and Eastern Minnesota through early Afternoon...Convection near this warm front has prevented it from shifting farther north Today.  A weak surface trough was analyzed over Northern-Western Minnesota late Today, but abundant cloud-cover had been in place until mid-late Afternoon which has kept the air marginally unstable but rather capped due to a limited amount of surface heating Today near this trough.  High temperatures Today were in the 60s near Lake Superior with 70s and 80s farther inland.  Dewpoints Today have climbed into the 60s to lower 70s with PWS of 1.30-1.60" as of 4 PM.  Winds across our area were out of the south or east Today under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery shows 500mb troughs over the Western U.S. and in Eastern Canada/Northeast U.S. with an upper level ridge over the Central-Southern U.S.  Morning complex of storms which affected parts of the Upper Midwest continued to weaken This Afternoon as it drops into Southwest Wisconsin, but a new round of storms has been forming late Today in Southern Minnesota behind this first complex.

Tonight:

A weak surface trough will settle south-east into our area.  A very moist, somewhat unstable but capped airmass will be in place near this boundary Tonight.  CAPE will generally be in the 500-1500 j/kg range with Lifted Indices of -1 to -4 degrees C.  Dewpoints should hold in the 60s to around 70 degrees with PWS averaging 1.50".  A few showers and thunderstorms could develop Tonight, first in Northcentral Minnesota...Then possibly in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota Overnight.  Late Afternoon 0-6 KM and EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR of 30-40 knots with 1KM HELICITY around 200 m2/s2 is more than enough to cause severe weather, but the shear and helicity are both forecasted to weaken during the Evening, so the main threats from thunderstorms would be from heavy rain and dangerous lightning.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 60s to around 70 degrees are expected Tonight with 50s for some communities near Lake Superior.  Note:  Patchy fog could also occur at times Tonight.  Winds will be out of the south or east under 15 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

Surface trough washes out with the main surface front setting up well to our west-north through this period.  Temperatures will heat up this period thanks to more sun Tomorrow compared to Today.  Highs will be in the 80s and 90s with cooler temperatures possible near Lake Superior.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the 60s and 70s.  Dewpoints will be in the 60s and 70s with PWS of 1.00-1.25".  Afternoon and Evening heat indices are forecasted to range from 95-105 degrees, especially away from Lake Superior.  Winds during this period will be out of the south or east under 15 mph.  Expect partly cloudy skies Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with a few showers and thunderstorms possible in the Morning, especially in Northwest Wisconsin.  A few showers and thunderstorms could then move into far Northern Minnesota late Saturday Night.  There will be plenty of instability in place during this period with CAPE of 1500-3000 j/kg and Lifted Indices of -3 to -7 degrees C, so if thunderstorms are able to develop they could become severe with a large hail and damaging wind threat...The greatest severe potential would be along the Minnesota/Ontario border for late Saturday Night.

Extended Forecast:

Quite a bit of uncertainty with the forecast for Sunday and Monday.  Computer models are not in the best agreement pertaining to a cold front, and how far south it gets early next week.  The NAM drops the front farthest south, while the GFS hangs it up much closer-if not in our local area early next week.  Should the NAM verify, then there would be a break in the heat and humidity for early next week, especially near Lake Superior as the marine layer would strengthen.  A very strong cap will be in place across our area with 700mb temperatures of +13 to +16 degrees C for Sunday and Monday, even with this cap in place the computer models seem to be generating an awful lot of QPF (precipitation) in our area for late this weekend and early next week which seems kinda fishy.  The atmosphere will be very unstable on Sunday with CAPE >3000 j/kg and Lifted Indices from -4 to -9 degrees C.  0-6 KM and EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR are forecasted to be in the 40-50 knot range which combined with the amount of energy in the air would support a severe thunderstorm risk with damaging wind and large hail for Sunday and Sunday Night.  High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 80s and 90s with cooler temperatures possible near Lake Superior.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the 60s and 70s.  A frontal boundary should be near us or farther to our west-south for next Monday, this boundary will then lift back north as a warm front early next week.  May see a few showers and thunderstorms at times between Monday-Wednesday of next week and another round of heat/humidity may build into the area sometime Tuesday-Wednesday of next week.  Highs on monday will be in the 70s and 80s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Lows Monday Night will mainly be in the 60s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

"EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH"
Timing:  Saturday Afternoon through Tuesday Evening.

.Tonight...  Humid.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Warm and humid.  Partly cloudy.  High 82 to 87 but cooler at times closer to Lake Superior.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Warm and humid.  Partly cloudy.  Low 67 to 72.  Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Warm and humid.  Partly sunny.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  High 83 to 88 but it may be cooler at times near Lake Superior.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night...  Humid.  Variable cloudiness.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  Low 63 to 68.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday...  Humid.  Partly sunny.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  High 80 to 85 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 80 to 85 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  77 degrees
Low:  55 degrees

Saturday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Moderate
Tree:    None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:30 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:59 PM CDT

Tim