Thursday, June 30, 2011

6/30/11: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:50 PM CDT, Thursday, June 30th, 2011

*HEAT ADVISORY*
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Heat Advisory is in effect until 9 PM CDT This Evening for the following counties.  In Minnesota:  Koochiching...Itasca...Cass...Crow Wing...and Aitkin.  Some cities included in the advisory:  International Falls MN...Littlefork MN...Bigfork MN...Grand Rapids MN...Cass Lake MN...Walker MN...Leader MN...Brainerd MN...Aitkin MN...Hill City MN...and McGregor MN.

*High temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s will produce heat index values of 95 to 100 degrees into early This Evening.

*These hot and humid conditions will potentially produce a heightened risk of heat related stress and illness.

A heat advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected.  The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which illnesses are possible.  Drink plenty of fluids...Stay in air-conditioned room...Stay out of the sun...and check up on relatives and neighbors.

*HEAT ADVISORY*
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Heat Advisory is in effect until 9 PM CDT This Evening and from 12 PM CDT until 9 PM CDT Friday for Pine county in Eastern Minnesota.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  Pine City MN...and Hinckley MN.

*Temperatures in the lower 90s through early This Evening and again Friday Afternoon and early Evening combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s will produce heat index values ranging from 95 to 100 degrees.

*HEAT ADVISORY*
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Heat Advisory is in effect from 12 PM CDT Friday until 9 PM CDT Friday for the following counties in Northwest Wisconsin:  Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...Iron...Burnett...Washburn...Sawyer...and Price.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Cable WI...Ashland WI...Butternut WI...Upson WI...Hurley WI...Mercer WI...Grantsburg WI...Siren WI...Minong WI...Spooner WI...Shell Lake WI...Hayward WI...Loretta WI...Park Falls WI...Phillips WI...and Ogema WI.

*High temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Friday combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s will produce heat index values from 95 to 100 degrees Friday Afternoon and early Friday Evening.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Hot and muggy thru Friday away from Lake Superior
-Extreme instability but a strong cap into Friday
-If the cap breaks, look for explosive thunderstorm development
-Severe potential into Friday Evening
-4th of July weekend looks pleasant

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

The marine layer has increased around the head of Lake Superior with cold dense air trapped in place in the Superior and Duluth Harbor areas where high temperatures only made it into the 50s Today along with a copious amount of low level cloudiness.  Farther inland, skies were partly to mostly cloudy Today with southerly winds and very warm/muggy weather.  Highs were in the 80s to lower 90s with dewpoints of 65 to around 75 degrees!  Afternoon heat indices were in the mid 90s to low 100s in Western-Southern parts of our area.  Note:  At 4 PM CDT Today the heat index was 98 degrees at Hinckley, MN while at the Duluth Harbor, the temperature was just 54 degrees! Distance between Hinckley and Duluth is about 70 miles.  Winds Today were out of the south or east at 5-15 mph with some higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb troughs covered Eastern Canada and the Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies per water vapor satellite imagery while a large 500mb ridge was in place across the Plains and portions of the Upper Midwest.  A vigorous disturbance was lifting northeast across Utah Today and this system could be a player in our weather for Friday.  850mb temperatures as of 4 PM CDT ranged from +22 degrees C at Duluth, MN to +27 degrees C at Sioux Falls, SD to +32 degrees at Garden City, KS.  Widespread 90+ degree temperatures covered portions of the Dakotas and Minnesota, south through the Central-Southern-and Southeast U.S. Today.

Tonight:

Low pressure will be centered well to our northwest with a cold front moving into Western Minnesota Overnight.  Extreme amounts of instability will be found in our area Tonight with CAPE of 2500-5500 j/kg and Lifted Indices from -3 to -9 degrees C.  A very strong cap will likely hold most of the night, however, as 700mb temperatures range from +12 to +16 degrees C.  A few showers and thunderstorms could develop eventually, especially from late Evening through the Overnight hours mainly in Northcentral and Northeast Minnesota.  If thunderstorms develop Tonight they could turn severe due to the high amount of CAPE.  Large hail, damaging winds and dangerous lightning will be the primary risks.  Heavy rain will also be a threat with dewpoints away from Lake Superior in the 60s and 70s with PWS around 1.50".  Lows Tonight will be around 50 degrees in Superior and Downtown Duluth with 60s and 70s elsewhere.  Winds will be out of the south or east under 20 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

A cold front will slowly move east-southeast across our area on Friday, it should exit to our east by mid or late Friday Evening the way it looks now.  A very unstable and humid airmass will be found along and ahead of the front with CAPE of 3000-5500 j/kg and Lifted Indices from -4 to -9 degrees C.  Dewpoints away from Lake Superior will be in the 60s and 70s with PWS around 1.50".  Lift associated with the cold front along with an appoaching upper level trough and a potent disturbance heading northeast from Utah should lead to a scattering of showers and thunderstorms across our area Tomorrow and Tomorrow Evening.  Severe thunderstorms are possible as well with 0-6KM and Effective Bulk Shear approaching 40 knots while mid level winds increase to 30-50 knots with an upper level jet of 70-90 knots located toward the Manitoba Lakes.  The setup for severe weather is actually quite potent for Friday and Friday Evening per 12z model run, but a cap will persist with 700mb temperatures of +12 to +14 degrees, so slightly cooler compared to Today, but it's still there.  If severe weather develops the main risks would be from large hail and damaging winds with not so much a tornado threat, although an isolated tornado risk could evolve near lake breeze boundaries or possible outflow boundaries where surface winds back.  High temperatures on Friday will be in the 80s and 90s with 50s and 60s near Lake Superior.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.  Note:  Afternoon heat indices will be in the middle 90s to low 100s especially for Southern-Eastern areas.  Winds Tomorrow will be out of the north, east or south.  Winds Tomorrow Night will shift to the west or northwest.  Wind speeds during this period will range from 10-25 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Mild, but less humid conditions this weekend as high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest.  High temperatures for Saturday and Sunday will be in the 70s to lower 80s with low temperatures Saturday Night and Sunday Night in the 50s to around 60 degrees.  Cold front moves southeast into the Upper Midwest early next week, most likely Monday Night-Tuesday time frame, showers or thunderstorms could occur as that front moves through.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

"HEAT ADVISORY" for Superior, WI.
Timing:  12 PM Friday until 9 PM CDT Friday.

.Tonight...  Humid.  Variable cloudiness.  Showers or thunderstorms possible after Midnight.  Low 60 to 65, 50s near Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday...  Humid.  Variable cloudiness.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 80 to 85 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday Night...  Humid.  Variable cloudiness.  Showers or thunderstorms possible during the Evening.  Low 57 to 62.  Wind becoming west at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday...  Less humid.  Warming up near Lake Superior.  Mostly sunny.  High 78 to 83.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 55 to 60.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 75 to 80.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 55 to 60.

.4th of July...  Partly cloudy.  High 75 to 80.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  74 degrees
Low:  52 degrees

Friday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Moderate
Tree:    Low
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:18 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

6/29/11: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:37 PM CDT, Wednesday, June 29th, 2011

Weather History:

On this date in 1992:  A record low temperature of 40 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Few showers/thunderstorms possible into Thursday A.M.
-Extreme instability and tropical like dewpoints Thursday
-Severe risk if thunderstorms can develop Thursday Night
-Excessive heat advisories/warnings hoisted for portions of Minnesota for Thursday
-Risk for showers/thunderstorms once again on Friday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure of 1018mb was centered in Eastern Illinois This Afternoon with deep low pressure of 996mb in Southcentral Alberta Province with a 1000mb low along the Montana-North Dakota border.  Broad southerly flow was occurring Today across the Upper Midwest with increasing amounts of humidity, especially away from Lake Superior.  Afternoon dewpoints were in the 50s and 60s across our area with PWS ranging from 0.80-1.00".  Sunny to partly cloudy skies covered the area Today with high temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s at the head of Lake Superior to the 70s and lower 80s elsewhere.  Winds Today were out of the south or east at 10-20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb troughs were in place across Eastern Canada and the Western U.S. while an upper level ridge extends from the Upper Midwest through the Central-Southern Plains per RUC model analysis.  A lot of warm air was pushing NE out of the Rockies and Western High Plains Today with 3 PM 850mb temperatures ranging from +34 degrees C at Denver, Colorado to +30 degrees C at Pierre, South Dakota to +20 degrees C at Bemidji, Minnesota.

Tonight:

Southerly low level jet up to 35 knots will continue to advect deeper moisture into our area Tonight with a big increase in elevated CAPE also occurring with values of 1500-3000 j/kg forecasted Overnight.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area with a few showers or thunderstorms possible mainly late.  These storms if they develop would be forming to the northeast and east of the +14 degree C 700mb temperature contour which will be spreading east out of the Northern Plains Tonight.  The threat for severe weather is low for Tonight, but occasional downpours and lightning strikes could occur.  Lows Tonight will be in the 50s near Lake Superior and generally in the 60s elsewhere.  Winds Tonight will be out of the south or east under 20 mph.

Thursday:

Partly to mostly sunny skies will occur Tomorrow with a risk for a few showers or thunderstorms, mainly before Noon.  CAPE of 2000-4500 j/kg will be developing in our area on Thursday, but a stout cap consisting of 700mb temperatures of +14 to +16 degrees C will advect into the Upper Midwest Tomorrow which should put a lid in any thunderstorm development after Tomorrow Morning.  High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 80s and 90s but it will be cooler near Lake Superior.  Dewpoints will climb into the 60s and 70s with PWS around 1.25".  Afternoon heat indices could soar into the 90s for portions of the Northland, away from Lake Superior.  Note:  Heat indices of 95 to 110 degrees will be found in parts of Western, Central, Eastern and Southern Minnesota Thursday Afternoon.  Winds Tomorrow will be out of the south or east at 10-25 mph.

Thursday Night:

A warm front will lift northeast into the area with high amounts of instability, decent shear, and deep moisture in place across our area, but a strong cap will also be in place.  It's uncertain whether or not thunderstorms will be able to develop due to the cap's strength, but if they do, they certainly could turn severe with large hail and damaging wind being the main hazards along with heavy downpours and dangerous lightning.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the 60s and 70s, cooler near Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the south or east under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will be passing by well to our northwest-north on Friday, a cold front attached to this low will be moving across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Friday and Friday Evening.  Strong instability and decent shear will be in place across our area out ahead of this cold front, but a cap will also continue...A few showers or thunderstorms which could turn severe are a possibility in our area for Friday and Friday Evening.  Dry weather is expected Friday Night through Saturday Night with lowering humidity in wake of Friday's cold front.   High temperatures will be in the 80s to lower 90s on Friday, except for cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Saturday Night in the 50s to around 60 degrees.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible after 2 AM.  Low 55 to 60, cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday...  Humid.  Isolated showers or thunderstorms during the Morning.  Partly sunny.  High 73 to 78, cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday Night...  Humid.  Partly cloudy.  Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible Overnight.  Low 60 to 65, cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday...  Humid.  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 80 to 85.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday Night...  Turning less humid.  Showers or thunderstorms possible early.  Partly cloudy.  Low 57 to 62.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 78 to 83.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 75 to 80.

Normal temperatures Today

High:  74 degrees
Low:  52 degrees

Thursday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Moderate
Tree:    None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:18 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

6/28/11: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:38 PM CDT, Tuesday, June 28th, 2011

Local storm report for Monday Evening, June 27th, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

*8:05 PM CDT 6/27/11:  HEAVY RAIN.  Little Marais, MN (Lake county)  0.80" of rain fell in just 15 minutes.

*8:30 PM CDT 6/27/11:  HEAVY RAIN.  Silver Bay, MN (Lake county)  0.70" of rain

*9:09 PM CDT 6/27/11:  HEAVY RAIN.  Grand Marais, MN (Cook county)  0.97" of rain fell in less than 4 minutes.

*9:15 PM CDT 6/27/11:  FLASH FLOOD.  7 miles northeast of Little Marais, MN (Cook county)  Water over state Highway 61 between county road 6 and the Manitou River.

Rainfall report for Monday, June 27th, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Note:  Heaviest totals are in bold.

Duluth, MN:  0.26"
International Falls, MN:  0.76"
Hibbing, MN:  1.24"
8 miles south of Bigfork, MN:  1.25"
Littlefork, MN:  0.75"
Pokegema Dam, MN:  1.65"
Babbitt, MN:  2.31"
Cook, MN:  3.34"
Embarrass, MN:  1.40"
Kabetogama, MN:  0.92"
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  1.88"
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  1.40"
Finland, MN:  0.93"
Butternut, WI:  0.37"
Park Falls, WI:  0.37"
9 miles north of Bayfield, WI:  0.56"
Solon Springs, WI:  0.60"

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, MN (Airport location)

*Today marks the 11th day this month with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees
*June, 2010 had 10 days with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees, but had 3 days with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees compared to just one day so far this June.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Tranquil summer weather into Wednesday
-Steamy dewpoints arrive on Thursday
-Big time cap, but still a risk for isolated convection Wednesday Night into Friday
-Extreme instability for Thursday could mean a severe risk should storms develop

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A near perfect early summer day with some Morning clouds giving way to increasing amounts of sunshine during the Afternoon for most of the us.  Highs Today were in the 70s with some 60s in the Arrowhead.  Winds were out of the north, west or southwest under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Potent 500mb low/trough was moving into Eastern Canada with a W-NW H5 flow covering the Upper Midwest behind this system while an upper level ridge continued to dominate the Central and Southern U.S. per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight:

Mostly clear skies are on tap with patchy late night fog.  Lows will be in the 40s and 50s with south or west winds under 15 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

High pressure will be centered to our east during this period while an upper level trough covers the Western U.S.  Southerly flow will begin to draw some moisture north into our area with dewpoints reaching the 50s and 60s while PWS increasing to around an inch.  Elevated instability will also push E-NE into the area with CAPE of around 1000 j/kg expected by Wednesday Night.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies can be expected during this period with a few showers or thunderstorms possible by Wednesday Night as instability increases in a warm advection regime.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s to around 80 degrees with 50s and 60s near Lake Superior.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Deep low pressure will pass well to our northwest for Thursday and Friday.  A cold front will head east out of the Northern Plains, crossing the Upper Midwest sometime Thursday Night or Friday.  Southerly winds ahead of this boundary will pump tropical moisture into our area with dewpoints on Thursday getting into the 65-75 degree range while PWS range from 1.25-1.75".  Extreme amounts of instability are also being forecasted for Thursday by the models Today with CAPE on the order of 4000-6000 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -5 to -9 degrees C.  Mid and upper level winds look favorable for storm organization as does the low level jet...1KM Helicity is forecast to be around 150 m2/s2 Thursday Evening with 0-6KM Bulk Shear and Effective Bulk Shear averaging 30-40 knots.  Those parameters are all favorable for severe thunderstorm development as the cold front moves in especially Thursday Evening/Overnight, the issue with getting thunderstorms to develop will be a tremendous cap consisting of 700mb temperatures of +14 to +16 degrees C! It's uncertain whether or not any thunderstorms will develop in our area Thursday into early Friday, but if they do they certainly could become severe with the ingredients that will be in place.  High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 80s and 90s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the 60s and 70s with 50s near Lake Superior.  Looks mainly dry for Friday and Saturday with westerly winds and drier air moving in behind the cold front.  It will still be plenty warm, however, with widespread 80s expected in our area on Friday.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog possible late.  Low 48 to 53.  Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible late.  Low 55 to 60, cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday...  Humid.  Partly sunny.  High 73 to 78 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Thursday Night...  Humid.  Partly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65, cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 81 to 86.

.Friday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 57 to 62.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 78 to 83.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  74 degrees
Low:  52 degrees

Wednesday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Moderate
Tree:    Low
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:17 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:06 PM CDT

Note:  Duluth/Superior Harbor water temperature as of June 28th:  48.8 degrees

Tim

Monday, June 27, 2011

6/27/11: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:36 PM CDT, Monday, June 27th, 2011

Rainfall report for Sunday thru Monday Morning, June 26th-27th, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Note:  Highest totals are in bold.

International Falls, MN:  0.58"
Hibbing, MN:  0.23"
Cass Lake, MN:  0.96"
Littlefork, MN:  0.33"
Northome, MN:  1.19"
Cook, MN:  2.10"
Embarrass, MN:  0.38"
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  1.06"
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  0.50"
2 miles south of Cohasset, MN:  2.30"
3 miles southeast of Cohasset, MN:  3.00"
16 miles north of Deer River, MN:  3.00"
1 mile southwest of Round Lake, MN:  2.84"
11 miles north of Marcell, MN:  5.25"
8 miles northeast of Cook, MN:  5.40"
Wirt, MN:  3.10"
15 miles north of Grand Rapids, MN:  3.15"

Local storm report for Monday, June 27th, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

*8:35 AM CDT 6/27/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  37 mph.  Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca county)

*8:40 AM CDT 6/27/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca county)  Trees down in the Grand Rapids area.

*8:45 AM CDT 6/27/11:  FLASH FLOOD.  1 mile east of Bear Lake, MN (Itasca county)  Roads beginning to wash out.  Water over multiple roads and highways in the Bear Lake area.

*8:58 AM CDT 6/27/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Nashwauk, MN (Itasca county)  Trees blown down on county roads 8 and 56 near Nashwauk.  A few trees on power lines and power outages reported in the Grand Rapids and to the east near Nashwauk...Pengilly...and Warba.

*9:15 AM CDT 6/27/11:  FLASH FLOOD.  2 miles east of Marcell, MN (Itasca county)  Report of a partial washout on Highway 45 between county road 7 and state highway 38.

*9:20 AM CDT 6/27/11:  FLASH FLOOD.  6 miles south-southeast of Meadow Brook, MN (St. Louis county)  Water running over county highway 22, 1.5 miles west of Highway 73.

Weather Tidbits:

*508 severe weather reports, 375 of which were damaging wind reports per SPC on Sunday, June 26th, 2011.  The bulk of the severe weather was in the Northcentral U.S. down into the Southeast U.S.
*Wake low caused the pressure to drop 7mb in 50 minutes at Sioux Falls, SD Sunday Evening.  Wake lows form on the backside of thunderstorm complexes and can sometimes produce damaging wind gusts.

Extreme heat in the Southern Plains on Sunday, June 26th, 2011.
Source:  TWC.

Gage, OK:  113 degrees
Dodge City, KS:  110 degrees
Borger, TX:  113 degrees
Dalhart, TX:  110 degrees
Childress, TX:  117 degrees
Amarillo, TX:  111 degrees

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Rain in Northern-Northeast Minnesota tapers off late Tonight
-Dry and pleasant weather for Tuesday and Wednesday
-Warm wave and humid weather mid to late week
-Cooling lake breezes Wednesday-Thursday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 1004mb has moved into Central Lake Superior early This Evening with high pressure of 1018mb centered in Western South Dakota.  An area of heavy rain and thunderstorms developed early This Morning and lingered into early This Afternoon in portions of Northcentral and Northeast Minnesota...Underneath this nearly stationary band of rain, there were reports of flooding and some excessive rain totals on the order of 2-5"! Isolated severe thunderstorms also developed This Morning from the Brainerd Lakes area, northeast to Grand Rapids and Westcentral portions of St. Louis county with some wind damage reported in those areas.  The rest of the area saw partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies Today with scattered showers, but a line of thunderstorms did develop This Afternoon affecting the Hayward Lakes area, east to Price county Wisconsin, those storms stayed below severe levels, but did drop some locally heavy rainfall.  As of early This Evening, areas of rain lingered in Northern-Northeast Minnesota underneath the upper level low/trough with a few thunderstorms in the Arrowhead.  High temperatures Today were in the 50s and 60s with a few 70s in Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds Today were out of the southwest or northwest at 10-20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Potent H5 trough/low with it's 60 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls was moving east through the Upper Midwest and Northern Great Lakes per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.  500mb ridge and W-NW upper level flow was found behind this system over the Northern Plains.

Tonight:

Occasional rain will persist through Midnight north of a Grand Rapids to Two Harbors, Minnesota.  A few thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning will also continue This Evening in the Arrowhead of Minnesota with some possible flooding.  By late Tonight, expect partly-mostly cloudy skies in our area with a threat for some showers mainly in the Arrowhead.  Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with northwest winds at 10-20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Dry weather during this period as Today's system exits to our east while high pressure heads into the Upper Midwest.  Highs on Tuesday will be mainly in the 70s with lows Tuesday Night in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the northwest or west under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Pleasant weather for Wednesday with highs in the 70s and 80s with slightly more humidity moving in by mid-week compared to Tuesday.  Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.  Thursday looks down right warm and muggy as high temperatures reach the 80s in most areas with a few locales possibly nudging close to 90 degrees! Dewpoints will also be on the rise with widespread 60s and 70s away from Lake Superior.  It does look like a lake breeze will develop Wednesday and Thursday which will result in much cooler temperatures near Lake Superior both those days.  A cold front looks to pass through the area sometime Thursday Evening or on Friday, the atmosphere ahead of this front will be extremely capped with 700mb temperatures forecasted to be around +16 degrees C! The computer models are showing a lot of instability and good wind shear developing ahead of this front across our area late this week, but the strong cap in place should keep the threat for thunderstorms and severe weather on the low side the way it looks now.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Variable cloudiness.  Low 48 to 53.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday...  Mostly sunny.  High 70 to 75.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 48 to 53.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Mostly sunny.  High 72 to 77 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Thursday...  Humid.  Partly cloudy.  High 73 to 78 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Humid.  Low 60 to 65, cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 80 to 85.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  74 degrees
Low:  52 degrees

Tuesday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Moderate
Tree:    Low
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:17 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim

Sunday, June 26, 2011

6/26/11: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:01 PM CDT, Sunday, June 26th, 2011

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Occasional rain/scattered thunderstorms Tonight
-Shower chances linger into Monday
-Dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday
-Near to slightly below average temperatures thru Tuesday
-Warm wave mid to late week, especially away from Lake Superior
-Pattern change after the 4th of July?

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A cold front was moving into extreme Northwest Minnesota late This Afternoon.  A moist airmass was in place out ahead of this front Today with dewpoints from 55 to around 65 degrees, PWS around 1.30" with 850mb td's from +8 to +12 degrees C.  An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms pushed through parts of Northern Minnesota This Morning.  Behind these showers, skies were partly sunny to mostly cloudy in Northern-Eastern Minnesota and partly cloudy to mostly sunny in Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs Today were in the 70s, with 50s in Superior and the Duluth Harbor as the lake breeze became more pronounced once again.  Winds Today were out of the south or east under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Southwest 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis.  An upper level trough was digging south/east from Western Canada and the Northern Rockies.  A large upper level ridge was in place over the Southern U.S. with extreme heat from Kansas to Texas and into the Southeast U.S.  Note:  Some locations in Oklahoma and Texas topped out over 110 degrees Today!

Tonight:

Cold front moves east into Northern-Central Minnesota Overnight.  Abundant moisture and some forcing associated with the front and approaching H5 trough will lead to occasional rain and showers across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight.  Some of the rain could be locally heavy and scattered thunderstorms are possible as well with a threat for dangerous lightning strikes.  The overall severe threat is rather low, however, with marginal instability with CAPE generally around 500 j/kg with Lifted Indices of zero to -3 degrees C.  Shear is favorable for severe weather though with 1KM Helicity around 200 m2/s2 and 0-6KM and Effective Bulk Shear of 30-40 knots, but the lack of instabilty will likely keep the majority of thunderstorms below severe levels for Tonight.  Mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with lows in the 50s to lower 60s.  Winds will be out of the south, west or east under 15 mph.

Monday and Monday Night:

Cold front will pass through Northeast-Eastern Minnesota Monday Morning and will move through Northwestern Wisconsin by mid-Afternoon Monday.  Areas of rain will be found into early Monday Afternoon in Northwest Wisconsin, Northeast and Eastcentral Minnesota with a few Afternoon/early Evening showers and isolated thunderstorms redeveloping in Northcentral Minnesota underneath the cold upper level trough.  Highs Tomorrow under partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 40s and 50s with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Winds on Monday will be out of the south, east or west at up to 20 mph.  Winds Tomorrow Night will be out of the northwest at 10-20 mph.

Note:  Rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50" will be common across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin by Monday Afternoon with localized greater amounts ranging from 0.50-2.00".

Extended Forecast:

Dry weather is forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure moves through the Upper Midwest.  High temperatures will be in the 70s both days with lows in the 40s and 50s.  A vigorous low will pass well to our northwest during the Thursday-Friday (June 30th-July 1st) time frame, the airmass ahead of this system will be extremely capped so as the cold front moves across the area Thursday or early Friday it should come through generally dry with just a small chance for a shower or thunderstorm.  Widespread 80s are still expected on Thursday and possibly on Friday as well, but a lake breeze should keep the warmth from making it to lakeshore communities on Thursday, winds will swing around to the west on Friday though which will bring the warm air right up to Lake Superior.

The EUROPEAN and GFS computer models are hinting at a pattern change after the 4th of July as an upper level low develops in Hudson Bay Canada, this in turn will cause the upper level winds to back more northwest or northerly which could result in a period of cooler than average temperatures once again for portions of the Upper Midwest.  This is still a long ways out, so things may change between now and then.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional rain developing.  Isolated thunderstorms also possible.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 80%.

.Monday...  Occasional rain into early Afternoon.  Mostly cloudy.  A few showers still possible during the Afternoon.  High 62 to 67.  Wind becoming west at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 80% during the Morning and 20% in the Afternoon.

.Monday Night...  Becoming partly cloudy.  Low 48 to 53.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Mostly sunny.  High 70 to 75.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 48 to 53.

.Wednesday...  Mostly sunny.  High 72 to 77 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 73 to 78 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  74 degrees
Low:  51 degrees

Monday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  High
Tree:    None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:16 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim

Saturday, June 25, 2011

6/25/11: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:30 PM CDT, Saturday, June 25th, 2011

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, MN (Airport location)

*76 degree high temperature on June 24th...Warmest maximum temperature since June 6th when it was 83 degrees.
*June 24th was our 1st time above 70 degrees since June 17th.
*3.46" of rain so far this month which is 0.09" ABOVE AVERAGE.
*11.76" of precipitation since January 1st which is 0.29" BELOW AVERAGE.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Most areas stay dry Tonight
-Threat for showers/thunderstorms increase Sunday Afternoon into Monday
-Dry weather returns next Tuesday/Wednesday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure of 1014mb has moved off to our east Today with southerly winds occurring across our area on the backside of this high.  An area of rain has been affecting portions of Southeast Minnesota and Southwest Wisconsin Today while scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are developing in Western North Dakota late This Afternoon.  Partly to mostly sunny skies were found in our area Today with pleasant late June temperatures with highs topping out in the 70s with low dewpoints in the 40s and 50s with PWS of 0.70-1.00".  Winds Today were out of the south or southwest at 5-15 mph with a few higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Westerly 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis.  A disturbance was passing south of Northern Minnesota Today per water vapor satellite imagery while an upper level trough moves east-southeast out of Western Canda and the Pacific Northwest.

Tonight:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with an outside chance of a shower or two, mainly in Western-Northern areas.  Lows Tonight will be mainly in the 50s with southerly winds under 15 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

A cold front will be tracking east through the Dakotas with southerly winds continuing ahead of this boundary.  Moisture will be on the increase during this period with dewpoints reaching the 55-65 degree range with PWS of 1.00-1.50" and 850mb td's of +8 to +12 degrees C.  Some instability will also develop Sunday Afternoon/Evening with CAPE of 500-1300 j/kg with Lifted Indices of zero to -3 degrees C.  Scattered showers are possible Sunday Morning into early Afternoon mainly in Northcentral Minnesota. 

Scattered showers or thunderstorms could then erupt Sunday Afternoon into Sunday Night in Northern-Eastern Minnesota, and mainly from Sunday Evening through the Overnight hours for Northwest Wisconsin. 

The potential for severe weather is relatively low for our area, but favorable shear will be in place with 6KM and Effective Bulk Shear values of around 30-40 knots combined with mid level winds around 30-40 knots, a low level jet increasing to 30-45 knots late Sunday Afternoon/Evening, and 1KM HELICITY around 150 m2/s2.  All this could lead to an isolated severe thunderstorm threat, especially around the Brainerd Lakes area late Sunday Afternoon or Sunday Evening with large hail and damaging wind being the primary hazards.

Locally heavy downpours and dangerous lightning strikes will also occur in any thunderstorm that develops Tomorrow or Tomorrow Night.

High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Sunday Night in the 50s and 60s.  Skies will be partly sunny to mostly cloudy Tomorrow and mostly cloudy Tomorrow Night.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph on Sunday and south, east or west under 20 mph Sunday Night.

Note:  Rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50" are possible in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Sunday into Monday with localized higher amounts an excess of 1.00".

Extended Forecast:

Cold front will be moving through Northwest Wisconsin Monday Morning which will then be followed by an upper level trough which will move south/east across the Upper Midwest Monday Afternoon.  Showers and isolated thunderstorms could continue Monday Morning in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  A few showers or thunderstorms could redevelop Monday Afternoon into early Evening, mainly for the Northern half of Minnesota.  Highs on Monday will be in the 60s and 70s.  High pressure moves in Monday Night through Wednesday with dry weather.  Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s with highs on Tuesday generally in the 70s.

A potent upper level trough will develop in the Western U.S. during the mid to late portion of next week with a southwest flow aloft developing for the Plains and Upper Midwest.  Still looks like a couple days of very warm temperatures for the area with Thursday and possibly Friday being the warmest days when widespread 80s and possibly some 90s will be found in our area...Temperatures could be cooler near Lake Superior the mid to late portion of next week, but that will depend on the wind direction which is still somewhat uncertain this far out in time.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Occasional showers and isolated thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 53 to 58.  Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Monday...  Showers and isolated thunderstorms early.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible late in the day.  High 70 to 75.  Chance of rain 60% early and 20% late in the day.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 48 to 53.

.Tuesday...  Mostly sunny.  High 70 to 75.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 48 to 53.

.Wednesday...  Mostly sunny.  High 72 to 77.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  73 degrees
Low:  51 degrees

Sunday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Moderate
Tree:    None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:16 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim

Thursday, June 23, 2011

6/23/11: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:46 PM CDT, Thursday, June 23rd, 2011

EF-0 TORNADO on Tuesday, June 21st, 2011 in Anoka county, Minnesota.
Source:  NWS Chanhassen, MN.

Location:  From near the intersection of U.S. Highway 10 and Central Ave. in Blaine...Northwest to about 1/2 mile northwest of the intersection of County Highway 14 and Hanson Boulevard in far Northern Coon Rapids.

Path Length:  Approximately 5 and one half miles.

Maximum wind speeds:  70-80 mph.

Time:  2 minutes either way of 3:12 PM CDT on June 21st, the tornado was on the ground until around 3:25 PM CDT per radar estimates.

Note:  Within the 7 county Twin Cities Metro area including Eastern Wright county, there have been 6 tornadoes thus far in 2011.  The remainder of the 52 counties in the NWS Twin Cities/Chanhassen county warning area have seen 5 thus far.

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

*Average June temperature thru the 22nd:  56.8 degrees/2.2 degrees BELOW AVERAGE
*7 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees
*1 day so far this month with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees
*June 17th:  The last time the temperature reached 70 degrees
*9 consecutive days with at least a trace of rain.  (June 15th-23rd)
*June 1st-14th rainfall total:  0.14"
*June 15th-22nd rainfall total:  3.14"
*1.59" of rain on June 22nd.  April 30th was the last time we had at least 1.00" of precipitation (1.11")

Rainfall report for Wednesday through Thursday Morning, June 22nd-23rd, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth, MN:  0.60"
International Falls, MN:  0.60"
Brainerd, MN:  0.36"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.68"
Hibbing, MN:  0.60"
Ashland, WI:  0.48"
Littlefork, MN:  0.60"
Northome, MN:  0.53"
Embarrass, MN:  0.62"
Kabetogama, MN:  0.69"
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  0.79"
Silver Bay, MN:  1.12"
Finland, MN:  1.48"
9 miles north of Bayfield, WI:  0.76"
Sarona, WI:  0.37"

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Patchy drizzle/light rain for some areas Tonight
-Sunshine and warmer temperatures for Friday
-Near average temperatures this weekend into early next week
-Shower/thunderstorm chances Sunday-Monday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 1000mb has moved into Northern LOWER Michigan early This Evening.  Clouds and patchy drizzle/light rain continued on the backside of this low across Northeast-Eastern Minnesota through Northwest Wisconsin while a mix of clouds/sun were occurring farther west.  High temperatures Today were in the middle 60s to lower 70s from International Falls to the Brainerd Lakes area with 50s to lower 60s elsewhere.  Winds Today were out of the north or northeast under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb low and trough covered the Great Lakes, Central and portions of Eastern Canada per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.  Upper level ridge covered the Southwest U.S. with an upper level trough in place over the Pacific Northwest.

Tonight:

Low pressure will move into Eastern Ontario Province while high pressure moves east from the Northern Plains to Upper Midwest.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area with patchy light rain and drizzle in Northwest Wisconsin and Arrowhead of Minnesota, this precipitation should end around Midnight.  Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with north or west winds under 15 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

Temperatures will warm up during this period as high pressure moves overhead.  Should see at least some sunshine on Friday with high temperatures reaching the 70s in most locales which is about normal for late June.  Clear-partly cloudy skies are expected Tomorrow Night with lows in the 40s and 50s.  Winds during this period will be variable or west-southwest in direction under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Dry weather should carry over into Saturday with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Highs will be in the 60s and 70s with lows mainly in the 50s.  A cold front moves east out of the Northern Plains Sunday and Monday with increasing moisture and instability moving into the Upper Midwest out ahead of that boundary.  Showers or thunderstorms are possible in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin late this weekend into early next week.  Too early to tell if any severe weather will occur with this front, low level jet looks very weak, but winds in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere will be quite strong and the 6KM and EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR are forecasted to be favorable for storm development Sunday Afternoon/Night per latest SREF model run (15z).  High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Sunday Night mainly in the 50s.

Dry weather returns for next Tuesday and Wednesday, June 28th-29th.  Then, a vigorous storm looks to pass well to our northwest by late next week with gusty southerly winds and an area of very warm temperatures pushing N-NE into the area sometime between Wednesday-Friday, June 29th-July 1st.  High temperatures could soar well into the 80s, perhaps even some 90s especially for next Thursday and Friday.  Not sure yet if this warm air will make it to the lakeshore, that will depend on the wind direction, and that's still uncertain this far out in time.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Patchy light drizzle before Midnight.  Low 46 to 51.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Warmest day since June 17th.  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 70 to 75.  Wind northwest to west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind south to southwest around 12 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 67 to 72 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 52 to 57.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 68 to 73.  Chance of rain 30%.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  73 degrees
Low:  51 degrees

Friday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Moderate
Tree:    Low
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:15 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

6/22/11: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:02 PM CDT, Wednesday, June 22nd, 2011

*FLOOD ADVISORY*
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

*Small Stream Flood Advisory* for minor flooding of poor drainage areas for Southcentral St. Louis county in Northeast Minnesota...This includes the city of Duluth until 815 PM CDT Tonight.

At 2 PM CDT a trained weather spotter reported that Keene Creek in Duluth had overflowed its banks and water was flooding private property.  The flooding was occurring near the intersection of Getchell and Saint Louis River Roads.

Minor flood will continue along portions of Keene Creek and possibly other creeks in the Duluth area through early This Evening.  This includes the following streams and drainages...Chester Creek...Rocky Run...Mission Creek...Stewart Creek...Midway River...Buckingham Creek...Keene Creek...Pine River...Tischer Creek...Amity Creek...and East Branch Amity Creek.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are potentially dangerous in heavy rain.  Do not attempt to travel across flooded roads.  Find alternate routes.  It takes only a few inches of swiftly flowing water to carry vehicles away.

Rainfall report for Tuesday through Wednesday Morning, June 21st-22nd, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Note:  Highest totals in bold.

Duluth, MN:  1.57"
International Falls, MN:  0.32"
Brainerd, MN:  0.75"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.52"
Hibbing, MN:  1.41"
Ashland, WI:  0.48"
Hayward, WI:  0.43"
Bruno, MN:  0.50"
8 miles south of Bigfork, MN:  0.83"
Pokegema Dam, MN:  1.62"
Littlefork, MN:  0.55"
Cook, MN:  0.45"
Embarrass, MN:  0.62"
Floodwood, MN:  1.07"
4 miles east of Island Lake, MN:  2.45"
Silver Bay, MN:  2.41"
Butternut, WI:  0.95"
Park Falls, WI:  0.51"
Upson, WI:  0.67"
9 miles north of Bayfield, WI:  1.28"
Gordon, WI:  1.06"
Solon Springs, WI:  0.92"

Weather Tidbits:

*705 severe weather reports across the U.S. on Tuesday, June 21st, 2011, 586 of those were damaging wind reports with 6 reports of tornadoes per SPC.
*10,000+ people have been evacuated in Minot, ND Today due to flooding

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Lingering light rain, drizzle, and patchy fog Tonight and Thursday
-Storm pulls away by Friday with some improvement in the weather by then
-Near average temperatures this weekend, possibly going a few degrees above average early next week
-Shower/thunderstorm chances return either late this weekend or early next week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

996mb low was centered near Black River Falls, Wisconsin (Southwest part of the state) late This Afternoon.  Northern-Eastern Minnesota is now on the backside of this big storm with unseasonably cold temperatures along with areas of rain and drizzle with patchy fog near Lake Superior.  Highs were in the 40s near Lake Superior with 60s in Southern areas of Northwest Wisconsin with 50s for the rest of us.  Winds Today were out of the northeast or east at 10-20 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A closed upper level low covered the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Today per RUC model analysis with only slow movement toward the east noted per water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight and Thursday:

Strong surface and 500mb low will crawl E-NE during this period.  This system is forecasted to reach Eastern Wisconsin Thursday Morning and will move into Lower Michigan Tomorrow Afternoon.  Areas of rain, drizzle and some patchy fog will be found across our area Tonight and Tomorrow with overcast skies.  Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with highs Tomorrow in the 50s with a few 60s possible in some locales.  North or east winds under 20 mph are expected this period.

Note:  Additional rainfall amounts for Tonight and Thursday in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin should be in the 0.10-0.25" range with localized higher amounts around 0.50" possible.

Thursday Night:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area with a few showers possible mainly during the Evening.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s and 50s with winds out of the north or west under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Friday and Saturday look dry at this time with high temperatures getting back toward average levels for late June.  Expect 60s and 70s both days with lows Friday Night and Saturday Night in the 40s and 50s.  A cold front moves into the Upper Midwest sometime Sunday/Monday, June 26th-27th, this boundary could bring some showers or thunderstorms to Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin during the Sunday-Monday time period. 

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

"FLOOD ADVISORY"
Expiration time:  8:15 PM CDT Tonight.

.Tonight...  Breezy with occasional light rain and drizzle.  Areas of fog.  Low 43 to 48.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional light rain and drizzle.  High 51 to 56.  Wind northeast to north at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Thursday Night...  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 65 to 70.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 48 to 53.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 67 to 72 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  73 degrees
Low:  50 degrees

Thursday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  High
Tree:    Low
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:15 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

6/21/11: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:03 PM CDT, Tuesday, June 21st, 2011

...STRONG EARLY SUMMER STORM LINGERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY...

*FLASH FLOOD WATCH*
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Flash Flood Watch is in effect through Wednesday Afternoon for the following counties in Northeast Minnesota:  Cook and Lake.  Some cities included in the watch are:  Grand Marais MN...Lutsen MN...Forest Center MN...Isabella MN...Silver Bay MN...Finland MN...and Two Harbors MN.

Impacts:  Rain and a few thunderstorms will continue into Wednesday.  Locally heavy rainfall is possible.  Due to the steep terrain in the Arrowhead there is a threat for flash flooding.

A flash flood watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding.  Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.  You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should flash flood warnings be issued.

*WIND ADVISORY*
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Wind Advisory is in effect until 10 PM CDT Tonight for the following counties.  In Minnesota:  Southern Lake...Southern St. Louis...and Carlton.  In Wisconsin:  Douglas.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  Two Harbors MN...Duluth MN...Cloquet MN...Moose Lake MN...Superior WI...and Solon Springs WI.

Impacts:  Strong northeast winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph through the Evening.  Stronger wind gusts are possible in the Park Point area.

These strong winds may make driving difficult especially for high profile vehicles.

This wind advisory means that winds of 25 to 35 mph with higher gusts are expected.  Winds this strong can make driving difficult especially for high profile vehicles.  Use extra caution.

Weather Tidbits:

*410 severe weather reports/46 tornado reports across the U.S.on Monday, June 20th, 2011 per SPC.
*2.00" of rain fell in 12 minutes Today, 2 miles south of Hasty, MN.
*Tornado reported at Coon Rapids, MN (Anoka county) at 3:32 PM CDT Today.

Local storm reports from Tuesday, June 21st, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

*7:36 AM CDT 6/21/11:  NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  41 mph.  2 miles south of Cloquet, MN (Carlton county)

*8:13 AM CDT 6/21/11:  NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  54 mph.  5 miles southeast of Duluth, MN.  Measured at Sky Harbor Airport.

*10:32 AM CDT 6/21/11:  NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  40 mph.  4 miles west-northwest of Two Harbors, MN (Lake county)

*11:55 AM CDT 6/21/11:  NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  45 mph.  5 miles northwest of Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  Measured at the Duluth International Airport.

*1:54 PM CDT 6/21/11:  NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  45 mph.  Grand Marais, MN (Cook county)

Weather History:

On this date in 1992:  A record low temperature of 30 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Unseasonably cold temperatures near Lake Superior thru Wednesday
-Waves of rain and gusty winds into Wednesday Night
-A few thunderstorms Tonight and Wednesday
-Showery weather for Thursday
-Friday and most of the weekend look drier with near average temperatures
-Possible heat wave by the middle of next week into early July?

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota

Today's Weather:

994mb low was centered near Tracy, Minnesota (Southwest part of the state) late This Afternoon.  Bands of rain, heavy at times have been lifting north across our area Today with scattered thunderstorms also occurring at times in Northwest Wisconsin to the Twin Ports and Eastern Minnesota.  High temperatures Today were in the 40s at the head of Lake Superior with a few 70s around the Hayward Lakes area with 50s and lower 60s common elsewhere.  Winds Today were out of the east or northeast at 10-20 mph with gusts of 25 to 55 mph near Lake Superior.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Intense 500mb low was centered near the Northwest portion of Iowa late Today per water vapor satellite imagery.  70 knot upper level jet streak was located in Eastern Missouri and Western Illinois This Afternoon or on the southeast side of the surface and upper level low per RUC model analysis.  This system is trapped underneath an upper level ridge to our northwest, thus expect this system to move very slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tonight:

Low pressure at the surface and aloft will remain nearly stationary in Southwest Minnesota/Northwest Iowa.  Abundant moisture with PWS approaching 1.50" will be in place across our area and that combined with a 30-60 knot E-SE 850mb jet will lead to waves of rain for Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Locally heavy rainfall and scattered thunderstorms are also possible, but severe weather is not expected in this area.  Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with east or northeast winds at 10-20 mph with gusts of 25-55 mph near Lake Superior.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Low pressure will move very slowly toward the E-NE during this period.  The low should reach Southwestern Wisconsin by Wednesday Night.  Occasional rain will continue in our area with a few thunderstorms possible on Wednesday.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 40s and 50s with a few 60s possible around the Hayward Lakes area.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s and 50s.  Winds during this period will be out of the east or northeast at 10-20 mph with higher gusts.

Note:  Total rainfall amounts by early Thursday should be in the 0.50-1.50" range across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with localized higher amounts of 2-3" possible.

Note:  Gales will continue thru Wednesday Night for the Near Shore and open waters of the Western half of Lake Superior.  E-NE gales to 40 knots with maximum wave heights to 11 feet are possible during this event.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will reach Eastcentral Wisconsin Thursday Morning and will move farther off to the E-NE by Friday.  Some showers will continue in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Thursday, then mainly dry weather is expected by Friday and Saturday.  High temperatures will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees on Thursday with 60s to lower 70s expected for Friday.  Low temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s for Thursday Night and Friday Night.

Temperatures this weekend into early next week should be fairly close to average, but there are some trends showing up per GFS and EUROPEAN computer models for a period of very warm temperatures for the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest which would start sometime the middle or end of next week, possibly carrying over into the 4th of July. 

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

"WIND ADVISORY"
Expiration time:  10 PM CDT Tonight.

"GALE WARNING" for the Twin Ports Harbor.
Expiration time:  1 AM CDT Thursday.

.Tonight...  Windy.  Occasional rain with isolated thunderstorms.  Areas of drizzle and fog.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph with gusts of 35 to 55 mph especially This Evening.  Chance of rain 80%.

.Wednesday...  Breezy with occasional rain.  Areas of drizzle and fog.  High 50 to 55.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph.  Chance of rain 70%.

.Wednesday Night...  Occasional rain.  Overcast.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Thursday...  Occasional showers.  Mostly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Thursday NIght...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 65 to 70.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 70 to 75.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  73 degrees
Low:  50 degrees

Wednesday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Moderate
Tree:    None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:15 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim

Monday, June 20, 2011

6/20/11: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:35 PM CDT, Monday, June 20th, 2011

Weather History:

On this date in 1995:  A record high temperature of 88 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
On this date in 1992:  A record low temperature of 31 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Strong early Summer storm still taking aim at the Northland
-Rain overspreads the area Tuesday-Tuesday Night
-Locally heavy rainfall still possible with some flooding Tuesday-Wednesday
-Strong winds developing near Lake Superior, gales possible Tuesday-Wednesday
-Temperatures start to moderate closer to average levels by the weekend

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Deep low pressure of 992mb was centered along the Northern Kansas-Southern Nebraska state line with a warm front connected to this low located in Northern Missouri.  High pressure of 1018mb was nosing south from Northern Ontario Province.  Dry air has been advecting south/west from Northern Canada Today and this resulted in the dissipation of the fog and drizzle which has been in place over the past few days.  Skies became partly to mostly sunny This Afternoon in portions of Eastcentral Minnesota to the North Shore of Lake Superior while mostly cloudy skies continued in Northern Minnesota.  Highs Today were around 70 degrees in the Brainerd and Hayward Lakes region with 50s near Lake Superior and 60s for the rest of us.  Winds Today were out of the east at 5-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph near Lake Superior.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Strong 500mb trough/H5 low was pulling east out of the Rockies and into the Western High Plains and Central Plains Today per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.  An upper level trough covered Northeastern Canada with an upper level ridge to our northwest in portions of Manitoba and Western Ontario Province.  Temperatures are warming up once again to our north in Central Canada (mid 70s) with heat across the Plains and Southern U.S. (90+ degree temps) and sandwiched in between here in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin are below average temperatures.

Tonight:

Low pressure of around 990-992mb will move into Southeast-Eastern Nebraska with high pressure remaining to our north.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with a few showers possibly moving into Southern areas after 2AM Tonight.  Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with east winds at 5-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph near Lake Superior.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Strong low pressure of 992-994mb will move into Western-Northcentral Iowa during this period.  Moisture will surge north into our area with PWS increasing to between 1.00-1.75".  850mb jet from the E-SE will strengthen to 40-60 knots Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night and this combined with the increase in moisture will result in the development of widespread rain for our area.  Rain threat through midday Tuesday will be confined to areas south of U.S. Highway 2.  Rain should then build north, reaching the Iron Range, North Shore region Tuesday Afternoon or early Tuesday Evening, and finally into the Arrowhead and extreme Northern Minnesota by Tuesday Evening or during the Overnight hours.  Some of the rain could be heavy at times in Southern areas and isolated thunderstorms are possible as well, but severe weather is not expected with limited amounts of instability in place.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the east at 10-20 mph with gusts of 25-40 mph developing near Lake Superior.

Extended Forecast:

Strong surface low will move into Southwest Wisconsin Wednesday Morning and is forecasted to reach Eastern Wisconsin/Lake Michigan area by Thursday Morning.  Rain will continue to the west and north of this system from Wednesday into Thursday, although by Thursday the rain should become more scattered in nature.  High temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s on Wednesday with 50s and lower 60s for Thursday.  Lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night will be in the 40s to lower 50s.  Looks like slightly milder temperatures will move in late this week into early next week with some 70 degree high temperatures looking possible for parts of our area.

Note:  Rainfall totals by Thursday should be in the 0.50-1.50" range in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with localized higher amounts of 2-3" possible.

Note:  Gale Watch remains in effect Tuesday and Wednesday for the Western half of Lake Superior, this includes the open and Near Shore waters.  For the Duluth-Superior Harbor:  Winds will increase to 25-35 knots with gusts to 40 knots with maximum wave heights of 10 feet.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

"GALE WATCH" for the Twin Ports Harbor
Timing:  Tuesday Morning through Wednesday Evening.

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Becoming mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Tuesday...  Windy.  Occasional rain developing.  Overcast.  High 52 to 57 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph possible.  Chance of rain 70%.

.Tuesday Night...  Windy.  Occasional rain.  Isolated thunderstorms possible.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind east at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph possible.  Chance of rain 100%.

.Wednesday...  Breezy.  Occasional rain.  High 50 to 55.  Chance of rain 80%.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Occasional showers.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Thursday...  Showers possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 65 to 70.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  72 degrees
Low:  50 degrees

Tuesday's Pollen Forecast:

Tree:    None
Grass:  None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:06 PM CDT

Tim

Sunday, June 19, 2011

6/19/11: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 6:39 PM CDT, Sunday, June 19th, 2011

...POWERFUL LATE SPRING STORM MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...

Rainfall report for Saturday and Sunday Morning, June 18th-19th, 2011
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

International Falls, MN:  0.94"
Ashland, WI:  0.63"
Hayward, WI:  0.18"
Littlefork, MN:  0.50"
Embarrass, MN:  0.98"
Kabetogama, MN:  1.40"
Silver Bay, MN:  0.53"
Butternut, WI:  0.80"
Gurney, WI:  0.80"
Upson, WI:  0.30"
9 miles north of Bayfield, WI:  0.72"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  0.26"
Winter, WI:  0.74"

Local storm report from Sunday, June 19th, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

4:00 AM CDT 6/19/11:  FLASH FLOOD.  2 miles east of Duxbury, MN (Pine county)  Road washed out near Tamarack River Road, west of Markville.  Radar estimates around 1.00" an hour rainfall rates near the area.

Weather history:

On this date in 1992:  A record low temperature of 34 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Areas of dense fog and drizzle Tonight and early Monday
-Strong Colorado low starts to affect our weather Monday Evening
-Gusty winds, rain, and thunderstorms Monday Night thru Wednesday
-Flood potential this week
-Wintry weather with this same storm in parts of the Rockies
-Significant severe weather/tornado outbreak expected to our south Monday and Tuesday
-Gale potential for Lake Superior Tuesday-Wednesday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Weak surface trough which was over our area 24 hours ago has moved farther east into Central-Eastern Lake Superior Today and the rain associated with this system has finally exited the Arrowhead of Minnesota late This Afternoon.  Note:  Portions of the Northland have had a significant amount of rain since Friday, June 17th.  Danbury, WI reported 3.73" of rain with widespread 1-2" totals in Northern Wisconsin, back to the Brainerd Lakes region.  The ground is saturated especially in Northwest Wisconsin and portions of Eastcentral Minnesota and the additional rain that is forecast this week could result in significant flooding in coming days.  Visible satellite imagery shows stratus clouds pushing west-southwest across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin while high level clouds were moving in from the west.  Areas of dense fog and drizzle persisted through the day near Lake Superior while areas of fog farther inland gave way to some sunshine, mainly in Western-Southern areas.  High temperatures Today ranged from the 40s and 50s near Lake Superior with 60s and 70s elsewhere.  Widespread 90-105+ degree temperatures covered areas from Kansas and Missouri through the Southern and Southwest U.S.  Winds across our area were out of the east or northeast at 5-15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Impressive water vapor satellite imagery early This Evening as a very strong storm digs S-SE into the Four Corners region (SW U.S.)  90 knot jet streak was located west-south of the 500mb low in Utah per RUC model analysis.  A southwest upper level flow was occurring ahead of this storm from the Plains to Upper Midwest.  A strong temperature gradient was in place Today with early Evening 850mb temperatures ranging from +32 degrees C at Garden City, Kansas to +18 degrees C at Sioux Falls, South Dakota to +10 degrees C at International Falls, Minnesota.  This storm and whole set-up is something more common during the Winter months versus something you'd see in late June!

Tonight:

Strong low pressure of 989-992mb currently in Eastern Colorado will move into Northern Kansas-Southern Nebraska Overnight.  A warm front extending east of this low will remain well to our south Tonight and so will the showers and thunderstorms.  Areas of dense fog and drizzle will be common in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with some of the thickest fog occurring near Lake Superior once again.  Note:  Dense Fog Advisory may be needed for some parts of the area Tonight and Monday Morning.  Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with easterly winds at 5-15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Monday and Monday Night:

Deep low pressure of around 993mb will move slowly N-NE across Southern, Central and Eastern Nebraska with a warm front lifting slowly north into Central-Northern Iowa.  Most of Tomorrow looks dry in our area, but areas of fog and drizzle could linger into the Morning, and possibly the entire day near Lake Superior.  Showers should be on the increase from south to north Monday Evening/Overnight as a low level jet increases to 30-45 knots in the Upper Midwest.  Scattered thunderstorms could also develop Monday Night, mainly from the Brainerd Lakes area to Interstate 35 corridor and Northwestern Wisconsin.  Severe threat is low this far north as elevated CAPE remains weak, generally around 100-300 j/kg.  Heavy downpours and dangerous lightning strikes could occur though in any thunderstorm Monday Night.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 40s and 50s near Lake Superior with 60s to around 70 degrees elsewhere.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the east at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph near Lake Superior.

Extended Forecast:

Strong low pressure of around 994mb will move slowly E-NE through the Southern half of Minnesota from Tuesday into Wednesday, this storm will finally pull of to our east-northeast by Thursday, June 23rd.  Abundant moisture will be in place north of this system with PWS of 1.25-1.75" with 850mb td's ranging from +8 to +14 degrees C.  Rain will be widespread across our area for Tuesday and Wednesday with heavy rain possible Tuesday into early Wednesday.  Scattered thunderstorms are also expected Tuesday and Tuesday Night from Eastcentral Minnesota to Northwest Wisconsin with CAPE generally <500 j/kg.  The threat for severe weather remains low in our area on Tuesday, but an isolated severe storm could develop Tuesday Afternoon or Evening in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  1KM Helicity will be running very high in those areas which would support a supercell/tornado risk, but a lack of clearing/instability/warm air in those areas on Tuesday should put the kabosh on that risk.  High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 40s and 50s near Lake Superior and 50s and 60s elsewhere.  Lows Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Note:  Rainfall totals of 0.50-1.50" should be widespread in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Monday Night through Wednesday, but localized higher amounts of 2-3" are certainly possible.

Note:  Gale Watch has been issued for Tuesday Afternoon thru Wednesday Evening for the open waters of the Western half of Lake Superior.  Easterly gales up to 31 knots will develop on Tuesday with gusts as high as 40 knots.  Wave heights of 13 feet are expected with a maximum wave height of 19 feet possible.  Gale watch may also be needed for the Duluth/Superior Harbor sometime between Monday Night and early Wednesday.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Fog and drizzle.  Dense fog at times with near zero mile visibility.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind east to northeast at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph.

.Monday...  Breezy.  Areas of fog and drizzle.  Fog may be dense especially during the Morning.  Overcast.  High 55 to 60, cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Monday Night...  Breezy with areas of fog and drizzle.  Overcast.  Periods of showers developing.  Isolated thunderstorms possible Overnight.  Low 46 to 50.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Tuesday...  Rain.  Windy.  A few thunderstorms also possible.  Areas of fog and drizzle.  High 50 to 55, cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 35 mph.  Chance of rain 100%.

.Tuesday Night...  Rain.  Breezy.  A few thunderstorms possible during the Evening.  Areas of fog and drizzle.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.  Chance of rain 100%.

.Wednesday...  Occasional rain.  Mostly cloudy.  Fog and drizzle possible.  High 50 to 55.  Chance of rain 70%.

.Wednesday Night...  Occasional showers.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Thursday...  Showers possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.  Chance of rain 30%.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  72 degrees
Low:  50 degrees

Monday's Pollen Forecast:

Tree:   None
Grass:  None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:06 PM CDT

Tim

Saturday, June 18, 2011

6/18/11: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:52 PM CDT, Saturday, June 18th, 2011

*FLASH FLOOD WATCH*
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Flash Flood Watch has been issued until 1 PM CDT Sunday for the following counties.  In Minnesota:  Southern Aitkin...Pine...Carlton...and Southern St. Louis.  In Wisconsin:  Douglas...Burnett...Bayfield...Washburn...Sawyer...Ashland...Iron...and Price.  Some cities included in the watch are:  Aitkin MN...Pine City MN...Bruno MN...Hinckley MN...Moose Lake MN...Wrenshall MN...Cloquet MN...Cromwell MN...Duluth MN...Floodwood MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Danbury WI...Grantsburg WI...Siren WI...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Cable WI...Minong WI...Spooner WI...Shell Lake WI...Hayward WI...Exeland WI...Loretta WI...Ashland WI...Butternut WI...Upson WI...Hurley WI...Mercer WI...Park Falls WI...Phillips WI...and Ogema WI.

Impacts:  Rain with embedded thunderstorms will develop This Evening and will continue into Sunday Morning.  Deep moisture in place will cause areas of heavy rain.  Light winds in the mid levels of the atmosphere will result in slow movement to the rain.

*Rainfall totals of 2-4" are possible by midday Sunday.  The greatest risk for potential flooding will be from Hinckley and Moose Lake eastward to Spooner, Hayward and Park Falls.

*The ground is nearly saturated in some areas of Pine, Burnett and Washburn counties from heavy rains Friday Night.  Many area streams and creeks are already running high and flooding is possible across rural areas.  In addition, flooding is also possible in cities and towns where runoff is impeded or enhanced by streets and local drainage systems.

A flash flood watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding.  Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should flash flood warnings be issued.

Rainfall report for Friday and Saturday Morning, June 17th-18th, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth, MN:  0.52"
International Falls, MN:  0.34"
Brainerd, MN:  0.41"
Hayward, WI:  0.39"
Bruno, MN:  1.57"
Littlefork, MN:  1.40"
Northome, MN:  0.49"
Floodwood, MN:  0.36"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  0.42"
Solon Springs, WI:  0.55"
Webster, WI:  1.49"
Winter, WI:  0.42"

Weather History:

On this date in 1995:  A record high temperature of 94 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Rain and a few thunderstorms Tonight
-Rain shifts slightly more to the east on Sunday
-Mainly dry weather Sunday Night and most of Monday
-Massive storm expected to impact the Northland next week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Skies were mostly cloudy for the most part Today as a surface trough advances very slowly into Minnesota.  A very moist and somewhat unstable airmass covered the Upper Midwest Today with areas of showers and scattered thunderstorms developing ahead of the trough from Northern to Eastern to Southern Minnesota.  With PWS of 1.25-1.80" and dewpoints in the 50s and 60s with 850mb td's of +10 to +12 degrees C locally heavy rainfall has been occurring.  High temperatures Today were in the upper 40s and 50s near Lake Superior with lower 70s in Southern parts of Northwest Wisconsin, 60s were found in the rest of our area.  Winds Today were variable or north/east in direction under 15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Deep 500mb lows were in place in Quebec Province and in Western Saskatchewan Province per water vapor satellite imagery.  A disturbance was lifting NE through the Upper Midwest and was becoming negatively tilted as it bumps into an upper level ridge which covered the Great Lakes region and Central Ontario Province.  A potent system was digging S-SE through the Pacific Northwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery with a 130 knot upper level jet heading into Western Oregon.

Tonight and Sunday Morning:

A disturbance and surface trough will be crawling northeast out of Westcentral Minnesota.  A very moist airmass consisting of PWS from 1.25-1.75" and 850mb td's of around +12 degrees C will reside along and east of the trough.  The deep moisture in place combined with some instablity with CAPE of a few hundred j/kg will result in areas rain and scattered thunderstorms during this period.  Locally heavy rainfall will occur and some flash flooding could develop in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota.  The most concentrated area of rain Tonight should fall south and east of a line from Brainerd to the Iron Range and Arrowhead of Minnesota, with Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota having the greatest chance for heavy rain and possible flooding.  The rain Tonight will be moving very slowly due to very weak winds in the mid levels of the atmosphere and this may enhance the risk for some flooding.  Low temperatures Tonight will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees with 40s near Lake Superior.  Winds Tonight will be out of the north or east under 15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Sunday Afternoon:

Surface trough should reach Northern Wisconsin and the Arrowhead of Minnesota and these areas will have the best chance for additional rain which may be heavy at times.  The remainder of our area should dry out Sunday Afternoon.  Partly sunny to overcast skies are expected Tomorrow with highs in the 40s and 50s near Lake Superior and the 60s to lower 70s elsewhere.  Winds will be out of the north or east under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

The focus for next week will be on a powerful late Spring storm which will move slowly northeast out of the Central Plains.  Gusty winds...Locally heavy rainfall...and a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with this storm.

Monday, June 20th:  Low pressure of 990-993mb will head into Nebraska with a strengthening warm front moving toward the Iowa/Minnesota border.  Dry weather should continue on Monday in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with areas of rain spreading north into our area by Monday Evening and Overnight.  Scattered thunderstorms are also expected by Monday Night in Southern parts of the area as elevated instability increases.  Highs on Monday will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior.  Lows Monday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Tuesday, June 21st:  Strong low pressure averaging 993mb is forecast to move into Northern Iowa or Southern Minnesota.  Rain will occur north of this system with scattered thunderstorms in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 40s near Lake Superior with 50s and 60s elsewhere.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Low pressure will continue to move slowly northeast, likely reaching the Great Lakes region by Wednesday or Thursday, chances for rain will linger across our area for mid-week.

Note:  Areas of heavy rain could develop in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Monday Night into Tuesday Night and this may lead to some flooding.  There is also a risk for isolated strong and or severe thunderstorms Monday Evening through Tuesday, especially in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

"FLASH FLOOD WATCH"
Expiration time:  1 PM CDT Sunday.

.Tonight...  Breezy with occasional rain.  A few thunderstorms with locally heavy rain also possible.  Overcast.  Patchy fog or drizzle.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Sunday...  Occasional rain especially early.  Considerable cloudiness.  Patchy fog or drizzle possible.  High 57 to 62 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 70%.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  Breezy.  High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Monday Night...  Breezy.  Occasional rain developing.  Isolated thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 47 to 52.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Tuesday...  Breezy.  Occasional rain.  Mostly cloudy.  High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Chance of rain 60%.  East winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Occasional rain.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 47 to 51.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Wednesday...  Occasional rain.  Mostly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.  Chance of rain 60%.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  72 degrees
Low:  49 degrees

Sunday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Moderate
Tree:    None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:06 PM CDT

Tim