Saturday, April 30, 2011

4/30/11: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:37 PM CDT, Saturday, April 30th, 2011

Weather headlines:

-Strong spring storm passing west-north of us thru Sunday
-Isolated thunderstorm risk This Evening
-Scattered snow showers possible late Tonight thru Sunday for Northern Minnesota?
-Next system set to arrive the mid to late part of next week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Powerful low pressure of 990mb was centered near Jamestown, North Dakota as of 4 PM.  An occluded front attached to this low was pushing northeast out of Central Minnesota This Afternoon.  A 45-65 knot low level jet, PWS nearing 1.00" combined with strong lift associated with the low and also because of a strong mid/upper level jet stream caused widespread rain in our area Today with some heavy downpours in some locations.  Hasn't been much in the way of thunderstorm activity with this system due to the lack of instability and warm air, but a few lightning strikes were being detected in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin earlier This Afternoon.  Highs Today were in the 40s with some 50s showing up in the Pine River and Brainerd, MN areas as a dry slot (partial clearing) lifts E-NE into Central Minnesota This Afternoon.  Winds Today were out of the south, east, or west at 10-20 mph with a few higher gusts.

The same storm giving us rain Today is hammering parts of North Dakota with a spring blizzard.  Winds of 50-70 mph combined with falling snow has resulted in blizzard conditions Today with I-94 closed west of Dickinson, ND to the Montana border.  So far, 4.0" of snow had fallen at Bowman, North Dakota with 5.1" of snow at Williston, North Dakota per Bismarck NWS report.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Strong surface and upper level low in the Dakotas with 120-150 meter 12 hour H5 height falls was spreading northeast into the Upper Midwest late Today per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.  An 80 knot mid level jet streak and a 120 knot upper level jet streak were moving northeast from Eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa Today.  Plenty of cold air was found on the back side of this storm in Northern and the Western half of North Dakota with temperatures only in the 20s This Afternoon while it was in the 70s from Southeast Iowa to near Chicago, Illinois.  Late Afternoon 850mb temperatures ranged from -8 degrees C in Northwest North Dakota to +4 degrees C at Duluth, Minnesota to +10 degrees C at Chicago, Illinois.

Tonight:

Low pressure of around 991mb will reach Southwest Ontario Province Overnight.  Steady rain in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from southwest to northeast between 6-8PM This Evening.  A dry slot surging north/east out ahead of the upper level low will cause the atmosphere to become slightly unstable through mid-Evening as some partial clearing takes place.  CAPE values of 100-200 j/kg combined with lapse rates around 7.0 c/km and Lifted Indices nearing zero degrees C might be enough to trigger a few fast moving showers or thunderstorms This Evening in Northcentral through Eastcentral Minnesota and in parts of Northwest Wisconsin.  None of these storms are expected to be severe, but brief gusty winds and possibly some small hail may accompany one or two of the more robust storms through mid-Evening.  A strong push of cold air advection will sweep in from the west-southwest late Tonight as 850mb temperatures drop to between -4 and -8 degrees C Overnight.  Lingering showers will occur after Midnight, and as colder air moves in and thickness values lower, the potential does exist for the rain showers to mix with and turn to snow showers and flurries mainly in the North half of Minnesota.  Lows Tonight will be in the 30s with winds becoming southwest at 10-20 mph with gusts over 30 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

Deep low pressure of 992-995mb will track into Central-Northern Ontario Province during this period.  Unseasonably cold air will be found on the back side of this low with 850mb temperatures around -5 degrees C on Sunday, dropping to -8 to -12 degrees C Sunday Night.  Highs Tomorrow will only be in the 30s and 40s which will be 15 to 20+ degrees below average for the 1st day of May.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.  Mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tomorrow with partly to mostly cloudy skies Sunday Night.  A few showers of snow or rain are possible on Sunday with mainly dry weather for Sunday Night.

Note:  Snowfall accumulations of up to 1" are possible late Tonight and Sunday in Northern Minnesota.

Extended Forecast:

Monday and Tuesday, May 2nd and 3rd look dry at this time with highs on Monday in the 40s to around 50 degrees with highs for Tuesday in the 50s to lower 60s.  Lows will be in the 20s and 30s Monday Night with 30s on tap for Tuesday Night.  Wednesday through Friday, May 4th-6th could turn unsettled once again as a W-NW flow develops which will send some disturbances in our direction, there will also be a surface low and cold front moving across the Upper Midwest from mid to late week.  Rounds of showers could develop from Wednesday through Friday with isolated Afternoon thunderstorms possible as well.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Turning windy.  Partial clearing early.  Becoming mostly cloudy by mid-Evening.  A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 10 PM.  A few showers possible Overnight.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph, becoming southwest at 15 to 30 mph.

.Sunday...  Windy and cool.  Considerable cloudiness.  A few rain showers possible which could mix with snow especially during the Morning.  High 38 to 43.  Wind west to southwest at 15 to 30 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Variable cloudiness.  Low 27 to 32.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 45 to 50.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 29 to 32.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Wednesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 52 to 57.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  57
Low:  35

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:54 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:19 PM CDT

Tim

Friday, April 29, 2011

4/29/11: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:22 PM CDT, Friday, April 29th, 2011

Weather tidbits:  Source:  TWC.  Paul Douglas/St. Cloud Times

-Preliminary tornado count from Wednesday April 27th, 2011 is up to 211
-Death toll from Wednesday's historic tornado outbreak is up to 318 which surpasses the 307 fatalities from the Super Outbreak of 1974
-The tornado that hit Tuscaloosa, Alabama late Wednesday Afternoon may have been on the ground for 200 continuous miles! The all time record is 219 continuous miles during the Tri State tornado outbreak of 1925 which resulted in over 600 deaths

Above average tornado season ahead for Minnesota?

Source:  NWS and Paul Douglas/St. Cloud Times

An April that finished in the top ten for most tornadoes in the country has led to an above average season for both Minnesota and Wisconsin in 6 of those 10 years.

In years with La Nina (cooler than normal waters in the Eastern Pacific) of similar strength and a similar trend of gradual waning had an equal amount of active and non-active tornado seasons for Minnesota and Wisconsin.

*2.5 magnitude earthquake early This Morning at Alexandria, Minnesota.  This earthquake happened at 2:20 AM CDT This Morning, Friday, April 29th, 2011.  Source:  USGS

Distance from the epicenter of the earthquake from a few other Minnesota cities:

39 miles southeast of Fergus Falls, Minnesota
55 miles north-northwest of Willmar, Minnesota
127 miles west-northwest of St. Paul, Minnesota

Precipitation update for Duluth, Minnesota for April 2011, thru the 29th:

Total precipitation:  2.68"
Departure from average:  +0.75"

21 days have had at least a trace of precipitation.  15 days have had at least a trace of snow.

Note:  3 day precipitation total at Duluth, MN (April 26th-29th, 2011)  0.64" with 1.2" of snow

Weather headlines:

-Clouds increase Tonight, rain threat goes up Overnight
-Rainy Saturday ahead
-Isolated thunderstorm risk late Tonight thru Saturday
-Windy and colder Saturday Night and Sunday
-Frozen precipitation possible for Northern Minnesota late this weekend?

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure pushed off to our east Today with low pressure of 992-994mb stretching from the Northern Plains to Central Plains.  Broad southerly flow was occurring in our area behind the high and east of the low.  Temperatures Today were above average in most areas with highs in the 60s, but a lake wind kept temperatures in the 40s and 50s near Lake Superior.  Partly cloudy to sunny skies covered our area Today with south or east winds at 10-20 mph with a few higher gusts.  Note:  Temperatures This Afternoon were in the middle 70s as far north as Eastern Nebraska with 90 degree temperatures in extreme Southwest Kansas with low 100s in Northwest Mexico.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb trough was digging south across the Northcentral Rockies per water vapor satellite imagery with an area of 60-90 meter 12 hour H5 height falls accompanying this latest storm.  Southwest flow aloft was in place across the Upper Midwest Today out ahead of this storm with an upper level ridge pulling off to our east late Today.

Tonight:

Low pressure of around 995mb will be centered to our west.  A strengthening low level jet from the south of 50-65 knots will lead to a warm/moist advection pattern in our area.  Late Afternoon PWS around 1/4" will increase to 0.75" Overnight.  Look for showers to become more widespread late Tonight due to the low level jet, warm/moist advection pattern.  Isolated thunderstorms are also possible with elevated CAPE at or below 100 j/kg.  Lows Tonight will be in the 40s, but some 30s are expected near Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 10-25 mph.

Saturday:

Deep low pressure of around 994mb will lift through the Eastern Dakotas/Northwestern Minnesota.  Southerly winds and a strong low level jet of 40-65 knots will continue ahead of this low on Saturday with plenty of moisture in place with PWS around 0.75" and dewpoints in the 40s.  A strong cold front attached to this low will swing northeast and through our local area Tomorrow while a potent disturbance moves east out of the Dakotas.  Rain looks to be fairly widespread in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Saturday with isolated thunderstorms possible as well, especially during the Afternoon as a dry slot surges E-NE out of Western Minnesota.  Latest forecast models indicate that CAPE values will increase to around 100-200 j/kg Saturday Afternoon which combined with the strength of this system would allow a few thunderstorms to fire up, this threat would only increase if we get some some sunshine Saturday Afternoon, but that potential continues to look low.  Note:  Another weather problem on Saturday may be the formation of some fog near Lake Superior.  Mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tomorrow with highs in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the south, east, or southwest at 10-25 mph.

Note:  Total rainfall amounts of 0.25"-0.50" can be expected in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin late Tonight through Saturday with localized greater amounts approaching 0.75".

The same storm which will give us rain Tonight and Saturday will produce heavy snow and blizzard conditions Saturday into early Sunday in parts of North Dakota with snowfall accumulations possibly exceeding 6" in some areas.

Saturday Night:

Low pressure of around 993mb will reach Western Ontario Province with a strong cold front exiting our area to the east.  Strong cold air advection will kick in behind the low and cold front as 850mb temperatures tumble to -4 to -12 degrees C.  Variably cloudy skies are expected Tomorrow Night with a few rain showers which could mix with or turn to snow showers in Northern Minnesota late Tomorrow Night.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the 20s and 30s with southwest or west winds at 15-30 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Strong low pressure will track through Central Canada on Sunday with a continued threat for lingering rain and or snow showers for Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs on Sunday will only reach the 30s and 40s.  Clearing skies can be expected Sunday Night with lows in the 20s to lower 30s.  Dry weather is in the forecast for Monday, May 2nd with highs in the 40s and 50s with lows Monday Night in the 20s and 30s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Increasing cloudiness.  Occasional showers after 3 AM.  Low 38 to 43.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Occasional rain.  Isolated thunderstorms also possible during the Afternoon.  Mostly cloudy with areas of fog.  High 45 to 50 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph becoming south away from Lake Superior.

.Saturday Night...  Breezy.  Considerable cloudiness.  A few rain showers possible.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind southwest at 15 to 30 mph.

.Sunday...  Breezy.  Partly sunny.  High 40 to 45.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 27 to 32.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  56
Low:  34

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:56 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:17 PM CDT

Tim

Thursday, April 28, 2011

4/28/11: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:00 PM CDT, Thursday, April 28th, 2011

Amazing, but deadly tornado outbreak hit parts of the Southern U.S. on Wednesday, April 27th, 2011.  Preliminary tornado count is up to 171 as of late This Afternoon.  Note:  This is just a preliminary number and will likely go up or down in coming days.

Death toll from Wednesday is up to 280 per TWC report.

Alabama:   195 fatalities
Tennessee:   34 fatalities
Mississippi:  32 fatalities
Georgia:      14 fatalities
Virginia:         5 fatalities

Note:  April 27th, 2011 may go down as being one of the top 5 deadliest tornado days in U.S. history.

A massive amount of severe weather during the past few days.  Source:  SPC.

April 24th, 2011:  203 severe weather reports/15 tornadoes
April 25th, 2011:  438 severe weather reports/44 tornadoes
April 26th, 2011:  720 severe weather reports/68 tornadoes
April 27th, 2011:  754 severe weather reports/171 tornadoes

4 day total:  2,115 severe weather reports/298 tornadoes

Weather headlines:

-Quiet weather Tonight and Friday
-Near to above average temperatures in store for Friday
-Rain arrives Friday Night and lingers thru Saturday
-Isolated thunderstorm risk late Friday Night and again Saturday Afternoon

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Deep low pressure of 986mb has moved into Western Quebec Province late This Afternoon.  Moisture wrapping around that low caused an area of rain or mixed rain and snow in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Morning into the early Afternoon hours, but as the Afternoon wore on skies cleared out from north to south with high temperatures pushing into the 50s with even a few lower 60s in the Brainerd and Aitkin, MN areas.  Winds Today were out of the north or northwest under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A vigorous 500mb trough/low was moving slowly toward the south/east through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Today per water vapor satellite imagery.  A brief upper level ridge/westerly 500mb was pushing east into the Northern Plains while the next system with it's potent H5 low/trough digs south/east into the Pacific Northwest.

Tonight:

Skies will become clear to partly cloudy as high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest.  Lows will be in the 30s with westerly winds under 15 mph.

Friday:

Partly cloudy to mostly sunny are expected with high temperatures in the 50s and 60s, but it will turn cooler near Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph.

Friday Night:

Low pressure moves into the Northern and Central Plains.  50-70 knot southerly 850mb jet develops out ahead of this system with warm/moist advection lifting north into Minnesota.  Elevated instability will move in from the southwest with CAPES approaching 100 j/kg.  Rain will develop and move in from the southwest with isolated thunderstorms possible as well due to the strong low level jet/warm-moist advection pattern.  Mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 30s and 40s are forecast Tomorrow Night with south or east winds at 10-25 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Strong low pressure of 988-993mb will pass west-north of our area Saturday and Sunday.  Cold front attached to that low will push east and through Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Saturday.  Occasional rain through early Afternoon will give way to a scattering of showers and isolated thunderstorms from mid to late Afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes a bit out ahead of a potent disturbance which will approach the area from the Dakotas.  Thunderstorm threat for Saturday Afternoon will be somewhat greater if we can clear out a bit, right now that doesn't look very likely, so any storm that develops should be few and far between.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 40s and 50s.  A big push of cold air advection will move into Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Saturday Night and Sunday behind this system with 850mb temperatures dropping to -4 to -12 degrees C! Lows Saturday Night will be in the 20s and 30s with highs on Sunday only in the 30s and 40s with lows Sunday Night in the teens in Northern Minnesota with 20s to around 30 degrees elsewhere.  The period from Saturday Night through Sunday Night look mainly dry at this time, but a few showers of rain or snow can't be ruled out especially in Northern areas of Minnesota.

Note:  Rainfall totals of one quarter to one half inch are still expected Friday Night and Saturday across our area with localized greater amounts of around 0.75"

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Becoming partly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind northwest to west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60 but turning cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night...  Increasing cloudiness.  Occasional rain developing after 11 PM.  Isolated thunderstorms also possible.  Low 38 to 42.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Occasional rain during the Morning along with patchy fog.  Considerable cloudiness.  Scattered Afternoon showers or isolated thunderstorms.  High 45 to 50.

.Saturday Night...  Variable cloudiness.  A few showers possible.  Low 30 to 35.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 41 to 46.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 27 to 32.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  56
Low:  34

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:57 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:16 PM CDT

Tim

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

4/27/11: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:21 PM CDT, Wednesday, April 27th, 2011

Another significant late season snowfall across parts of our area Tuesday and Wednesday, April 26th-27th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

2 miles northwest of Mellen, WI (Ashland county)  9.0" measured in elevated terrain, 200 feet higher than the city of Mellen.
4 miles east of Cornucopia, WI (Bayfield county)  8.0"
Maple, WI (Douglas county)  6.5"
Mellen, WI (Ashland county)  6.0"
4 miles west of Washburn, WI (Bayfield county)  6.0"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI (Bayfield county)  6.0"
Cornucopia, WI (Bayfield county)  5.5"
3 miles northwest of Bennett, WI (Douglas county)  5.5"
Oulu, WI (Bayfield county)  4.8"
Tower, MN (St. Louis county)  4.5"
Hawthorne, WI (Douglas county)  4.3"
High Bridge, WI (Ashland county)  4.0"
Poplar, WI (Douglas county)  4.0"
Embarrass, MN (St. Louis county)  3.0"
Glidden, WI (Ashland county)  3.0"
3 miles west of Grand Marais, MN (Cook county)  3.0"
20 miles north of Grand Marais, MN (Cook county)  3.0"
Chisholm, MN (St. Louis county)  3.0"
Upson, WI (Iron county)  3.0"
10 miles south of Superior, WI (Douglas county)  2.5"
2 miles southeast of Finland, MN (Lake county)  2.5"
Saginaw, MN (St. Louis county)  2.5"
6 miles south of Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing county)  2.0"
Virginia, MN (St. Louis county)  2.0"
Nashwauk, MN (Itasca county)  2.0"
3 miles northwest of Cloquet, MN (Carlton county)  1.5"
1 mile north of Mille Lacs Lake, MN (Aitkin county)  1.5"
Bigfork, MN (Itasca county)  1.0"

6 miles northwest of Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  1.0" measured at the NWS.

An incredible severe weather outbreak continues Today across parts of the Southern/Southeast U.S., through portions of the Ohio Valley and Eastern U.S.  Source:  Storm Prediction Center

*700 preliminary severe weather reports/61 tornadoes on Tuesday, April 26th, 2011
*74 preliminary tornado reports (thru 5 PM CDT Today) this number will likely exceed 100 by late Tonight

Weather headlines:

-Lingering snow and rain thru Thursday Morning
-Friday looks nice
-Next storm with a new rain threat arrives Friday Night and lingers thru Saturday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Tuesday's low has moved into Northeast Wisconsin This Afternoon with two other lows (994-996mb), one centered in Northwest Lake Huron, the other in Southeast Missouri lifting north-northeast.  Overcast skies with lingering rain and snow were found in our area Today with some rather vigorous snow bursts at times.  Highs Today were in the 30s to lower 40s with north or east winds under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb low/trough covered the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Today with the combination of cold temperatures aloft (around -25 degree C H5 temps) and some instability with capes of a couple hundred j/kg was helping to trigger a few pop up thunderstorms This Afternoon over parts of the Dakotas.  Very strong jet stream winds >110 knots extending from the Southern Rockies to Northern Mississippi is fueling the historic severe weather outbreak that is ongoing in the Southern U.S. Today.

Tonight:

Low pressure will be centered over the Ohio Valley and Eastern Great Lakes with an upper level low moving slowly toward the south-east across the Upper Midwest.  Snow or a mix of snow and rain showers will persist in our area Tonight with new snow accumulations of 1-2" possible in a few locations.  Lows Tonight will mainly be in the 30s with north or east winds under 20 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Surface and upper level low will continue to push slowly toward the east on Thursday, lingering rain and snow showers will be found in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Thursday, little additional snow accumulation is expected though.  Mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tomorrow with highs in the 40s with a few 50s possible in western areas.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies can be expected Tomorrow Night with lows in the 30s.

Extended Forecast:

Friday looks dry with high pressure pushing through the area.  Highs on Friday will be in the 50s and 60s, but it will be cooler near Lake Superior.  Rain threat increases Friday Night into Saturday as low pressure passes northwest-north of our area while a cold front attached to that low heads east through our area on Saturday.  A strong southerly low level jet of 40-60 knots will be in place along and ahead of the cold front Friday Night through midday Saturday which will pull deeper moisture north into our area.  Current indications point to a quarter to one half inch of rain for most of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Friday Night and Saturday.  Low temperatures Friday Night will be in the 30s and 40s with highs on Saturday in the 40s and 50s with falling temperatures to the 30s in Northern Minnesota.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.  There might be a few lingering showers Saturday Night behind this system, and some snow could mix with the rain showers in Northern Minnesota.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Occasional snow showers which will be mixed with drizzle or light rain at times.  New snowfall accumulations up to 1".  Mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Occasional snow or rain showers mainly during the Morning.  Snow accumulations less than 1".  Considerable cloudiness.  High 45 to 50.  Wind north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60 but turning cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday Night...  Increasing cloudiness.  Rain possible Overnight.  Low 38 to 42.

.Saturday...  Occasional rain.  Mostly cloudy.  High 45 to 50.

.Saturday Night...  Variable cloudiness.  A few showers possible.  Low 30 to 35.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 45 to 50.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  55
Low:  33

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:59 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:14 PM CDT

Tim

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

4/26/11: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:04 PM CDT, Tuesday, April 26th, 2011

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until 10 AM CDT Thursday for the following counties in Northwest Wisconsin:  Bayfield...Ashland...and Iron.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Iron River WI...Cable WI...Ashland WI...Butternut WI...Upson WI...Gile WI...and Hurley WI.

Impacts:  A mixture of rain and snow, turning to snow at times will continue through Thursday Morning.  Total snowfall accumulations of 2-5" can be expected by Wednesday Evening.  The greatest amounts will occur in higher elevated areas.  Roads will become snow and slush covered in some areas.  Expect areas of difficult travel.  Slow down and use caution while driving.

High temperature report for Monday, April 25th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth, MN:  65 degrees
International Falls, MN:  64 degrees
Brainerd, MN:  66 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  68 degrees
Ashland, WI:  69 degrees
Hayward, WI:  67 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN:  63 degrees
Silver Bay, MN:  66 degrees
Orr, MN:  68 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  68 degrees
Cloquet, MN:  66 degrees
Superior, WI:  70 degrees
Phillips, WI:  68 degrees
Cass Lake, MN:  68 degrees
Littlefork, MN:  66 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  66 degrees
Finland, MN:  66 degrees
Upson, WI:  67 degrees

Weather headlines:

-Wet, gray, and cool thru Wednesday
-Several inches of wet slushy snow still expected Tonight and Wednesday Morning for parts of the area
-Slight improvement in the weather for Thursday
-Next storm expected to hit Friday Night with lingering impacts into the weekend

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A tale of two seasons across our area Today with spring like warmth with highs in the 50s in Northern Minnesota with temperatures in the 40s, falling to the 30s thanks to evaporative cooling in Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast-Eastern Minnesota.  Strong low pressure of 994mb was centered in Southern Wisconsin This Afternoon with widespread precipitation occurring from Northwest Wisconsin back through Eastcentral and Northeast Minnesota.  Rain was the main precipitation type thru mid-Afternoon, but colder air was spreading southwest into areas near Lake Superior which has caused the rain to mix with and change to snow, some moderate to heavy snow bursts have been occurring in some spots late This Afternoon.  Winds Today were very strong near Lake Superior where 20-35 mph sustained east-northeast wind speeds have occurred Today with gusts to 45 mph.  Winds farther inland were in the 10-25 mph range Today.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Broad 500mb trough was in place from the Rockies to the Upper Midwest with a strong upper level low spinning slowly north from Iowa per water vapor satellite imagery.  A powerhouse jet stream >120 knot winds per RUC model analysis extended from Oregon, southeast to Western Texas and it's this energy which will help fuel another major severe weather outbreak for the Southern Plains, Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions Tonight.  Note:  418 preliminary severe weather reports/40 tornadoes occurred in parts of the Southern Plains, Tennesse and Southern Ohio Valley regions on Monday, April 25th, 2011 per SPC.

Tonight:

Surface low will weaken to around 998mb as it heads into Northeast Wisconsin while a strong upper level low lifts north into Western Wisconsin-Eastern Minnesota Tonight.  Expect rain and snow in Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast-Eastcentral Minnesota Tonight with precipitation becoming all snow at times in some locations.  850mb temperatures are forecast to drop to between -2 and -4 degrees C Tonight which is sufficiently cold enough to support frozen precipitation, temperatures near the surface will be marginal, however, except for higher elevated areas in Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast Minnesota.  Northern Minnesota, or along and north of a Blackduck, Bigfork, to Crane Lake, MN line should remain generally dry Tonight.  Low temperatures will be in the 30s with north or east winds at 10-25 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Slow moving surface and upper level area of low pressure will remain over the Western Great Lakes/Upper Midwest during this period while a stronger area of low pressure heads northeast from the Arklatex.  Lingering rain and snow showers are expected throughout the area Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night.  Highs will be in the 30s and 40s with lows mainly in the 30s.  Winds will be out of the north, east, or northwest at 10-25 mph.

Note:  Widespread precipitation totals of 0.10"-0.25" are expected by Wednesday Night for Northern Minnesota with a corridor of 0.25"-0.75" for Northwest Wisconsin and also in Eastern-Northeast Minnesota.

Note:  Snowfall accumulations of 1-3" are expected by Wednesday in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with localized greater amounts of 3-5" in higher elevated areas, about 10-15 miles from Lake Superior.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will move into Eastern Canada on Thursday with still a lingering threat for some rain or snow showers in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin especially Thursday Morning.  A period of dry weather is expected Thursday Night through Friday Evening before the next storm system moves into the Upper Midwest this weekend.  Another round of rain can be expected in our area from late Friday Night into Saturday Evening with lingering showers Saturday Night into Sunday.  High temperatures will be in the 40s to lower 50s on Thursday with lows Thursday Night in the 30s.  Highs on Friday will reach the 50s and 60s, but it will be cooler near Lake Superior.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Snow mixing at times with drizzle and rain in higher elevated areas.  A mixture of rain, drizzle, and snow closer to Lake Superior.  Breezy.  Low 31 to 34.  Wind northeast at 15 to 25 mph with some higher gusts.  Total snowfall accumulations of 1-3".

.Wednesday...  Rain and snow showers.  Snow accumulations under 1".  Mostly cloudy.  High 35 to 40.  Wind northeast at 15 to 25 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Rain or snow showers.  Low 31 to 34.  Wind north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Rain or snow showers possible early.  Partly sunny.  High 45 to 50.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60 but turning cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday Night...  Increasing cloudiness.  Rain possible Overnight.  Low 38 to 42.

.Saturday...  Occasional rain.  Mostly cloudy.  High 42 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  55
Low:  33

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:01 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:13 PM CDT

Tim

Monday, April 25, 2011

4/25/11: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:01 PM CDT, Monday, April 25th, 2011

Weather tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota:

*Back to back days with a high temperature of at least 60 degrees, April 24th-25th, 2011.  Last time this happened was back on October 13th-14th, 2010.
*Monthly precipitation total (thru the 24th):  2.04"/0.40" above average
*Monthly snowfall total (thru the 24th)  9.4"/3.7" above average
*Seasonal snowfall total (thru April 24th, 2011):  92.2"/10.0" above average

Weather History:

On this date in 1990:  A record high temperature of 81 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather headlines:

-Big changes underway
-Powerful E-NE winds develop near Lake Superior Tuesday Morning, lingering thru Wednesday Morning
-Strong, slow moving storm lifts north into the area Tuesday-Wednesday
-Rain and snow to accompany this storm, substanial amounts of snow possible for some

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Another gorgeous spring day with high temperatures in the 60s with a 70 degree reading reported at Superior, WI late This Afternoon.  Partly to mostly sunny skies covered the area Today with a couple brief light showers or sprinkles This Afternoon in far Northern Minnesota and also out toward the Cass Lake, Walker, MN areas.  Low level lapse rates >8.0 c/km combined with a cold front nearby and some lingering cold air aloft resulted in some weak instability Today which resulted in these spotty brief showers.  Winds Today were variable under 12 mph.  Surface map as of 3 PM featured a cold front in Northern Minnesota with high pressure of 1020mb near Southern Hudson Bay.  Low pressure of 998mb was centered in Eastcentral Oklahoma.  Note:  A late season brand of arctic air covered portions of Northern-Central Canada Today behind the Northern Minnesota cold front, Afternoon temperatures were only in the 20s and 30s from Central Ontario and points north with 850mb temperatures of -4 to -12 degrees C!

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A powerhouse jet stream with speeds >130 knots was pushing southeast out of Northern California This Afternoon per RUC model analysis.  This jet stream energy is helping to fuel another big spring storm across the Southern Plains Today.  Another thing which is adding to this storm's intensity is the temperature contrast which ranged from the 90s and low 100s in portions of Texas Today to the 30s just north of Lake Superior.

Tonight:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with a cold front in Northern Minnesota becoming stationary or sagging slowly south, there might be a few light showers near this boundary in far Northern Minnesota through mid-Evening, otherwise dry conditions will continue.  Lows Tonight will be in the 30s and lower 40s with winds becoming east at 5-15 mph, but wind gusts over 20 mph will develop near Lake Superior.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Strong low pressure of 998mb located in Eastern Oklahoma This Afternoon will head N-NE into Southern-Central Wisconsin by late Tuesday Night, pressures will drop to between 986-990mb as the low heads into Wisconsin.  High pressure located to our northeast combined with the low to our S-SE will cause the pressure gradient to really tighten up during this period.  Forecast models (06z, 12z, and 18z runs) show 850mb wind speeds increasing to 50-70 knots Tuesday and Tuesday Evening in portions of Northwest Wisconsin, Western Lake Superior, and the Twin Ports vicinity, this could lead to very strong winds near Lake Superior.  Wind speeds of at least 20-40 mph will likely occur, but gusts could exceed 50 mph!  Wind speeds farther inland should be in the 10-25 mph range.

Rain associated with that Southern Plains low will push north into Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Tuesday with mainly dry conditions for Northern Minnesota.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 40s and 50s in Northern Minnesota with 30s and 40s for the rest of our area.

Lift and dynamic cooling processes will likely cause the rain to mix with sleet and snow in parts of Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota Tuesday Night, and it's possible that the mixed precipitation will transition to all snow during the night.  850mb temperatures are forecast to range from -1 to -4 degrees C Tuesday Night which is sufficently cold enough to support frozen precipitation, however, temperatures near the surface may stay just warm enough to keep most of the precipitation in the form of rain.  Note:  These late season snow events are very tricky, and usually only impact small areas.  There is still a potential for several inches of wet heavy snow Tuesday Evening into Wednesday Morning for parts of Northwest Wisconsin, the Twin Ports, and Eastern Minnesota and winter weather headlines may be needed at some point, if frozen precipitation does develop.

Low temperatures Tuesday Night will be mainly in the 30s.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure at the surface and aloft will become nearly stationary in the Upper Midwest for Wednesday while a secondary low, which will become the dominant low heads northeast out of the Southern Plains to Lake Huron from Wednesday into Thursday.  Unsettled weather with lingering rain and or snow showers will likely continue Wednesday into early Thursday in Northwest Wisconsin and in Northern-Eastern Minnesota.  High temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 30s and 40s with a few 50s possible on Thursday.  Low temperatures Wednesday Night and Thursday Night will be in the 30s.

Friday, April 29th looks dry at this time with milder temperatures as southerly winds develop out ahead of the next low pressure system and cold front which will sweep across the area this weekend.  Looks like will get some additional rain at times between Friday Night and Sunday, and by Sunday the temperatures could become cold enough once again to produce a rain/snow mix in parts of our area.

Note:  Prior runs of the GFS model were showing a rather intense storm for the middle of next week, Tuesday-Thursday, May 3rd-5th time frame, but the most recent run (12z) has backed away from that idea.  EURO model wasn't showing much of a storm until Today's 12z run, and now this run is cranking out a rather potent storm for the Plains and Upper Midwest sometime the middle of next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Turning breezy.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph, increasing to 15 to 25 mph Overnight.

.Tuesday...  Windy.  Mostly cloudy.  Rain developing during the Afternoon.  High 40 to 45.  Wind east at 20 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph possible.

.Tuesday Night...  Windy.  Rain, sleet, and snow possibly turning to all snow.  Low 30 to 33.  Wind east to northeast at 20 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph possible during the Evening.

.Wednesday...  Breezy.  Rain and snow.  High 35 to 40.  Wind north to northeast at 15 to 25 mph.  Total snowfall accumulations of 1-2" possible.

.Wednesday Night...  Occasional rain or snow showers.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Thursday...   Rain or snow showers possible early.  Partly sunny.  High 45 to 50.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  54
Low:  33

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:02 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:12 PM CDT

Note:  Duluth Harbor water temperature as of April 25th, 2011:  38.5 degrees F

Tim

Sunday, April 24, 2011

4/24/11: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:04 PM CDT, Sunday, April 24th, 2011

High temperature report for Sunday, April 24th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth, MN:  60 degrees
International Falls, MN:  62 degrees
Brainerd, MN:  64 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  61 degrees
Ashland, WI:  65 degrees
Hayward, WI:  60 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN:  63 degrees
Silver Bay, MN:  63 degrees
Aitkin, MN:  63 degrees
Superior, WI:  63 degrees
Phillips, WI:  61 degrees

Weather tidbits for Duluth, MN:

*Today marked the first time since April 12th with a maximum temperature of at least 60 degrees.
*Today marked the first time since April 13th with an above average high temperature.

Weather Headlines:

-A few showers up north This Evening and again Monday Afternoon
-Rest of the area stays dry into Monday
-Potent/slow moving storm moves toward the area Monday Night with lingering effects into mid-week
-Strong E/NE winds develop by early Tuesday and continue thru Wednesday near Lake Superior
-Rain and possible snow for parts of our area Tuesday and Wednesday
-Another storm lined up for next weekend

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

The combination of cold air aloft (500mb temps around -25 degrees C) mid level lapse rates around 7.0 c/km and some heating at the surface led to scattered Afternoon showers across Northern Minnesota Today with rainfall amounts of a trace to a few hundreths of an inch.  The rest of our area stayed dry Today.  Temperatures were finally above average for late April with highs in the middle 50s to lower 60s.  Partly to mostly sunny skies were found in our area Today with southwest winds at 10-20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

W-SW 500mb flow covered the region Today per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.  Strong jet stream winds >110 knots were in place over portions of Eastern Canada and in parts of the Western U.S. with an active frontal boundary stalled out from Northern Texas to the Ohio Valley with clusters of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms occurring near and along this boundary for the second day in a row.

Tonight:

Spotty showers in far Northern Minnesota will end before 10 PM with dry conditions occurring for the rest of the night.  Lows will be in the 30s to lower 40s with partly to at times mostly cloudy skies.  Winds will be out of the southwest under 20 mph.

Monday and Monday Night:

A cold front off to our north will turn stationary while high pressure heads off to our east.  Low pressure will track from the Southcentral Plains toward Northern Missouri by early Tuesday Morning.  Partly to mostly sunny skies are forecast on Monday with a few showers possible during the Afternoon in Northern Minnesota.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s and 60s, but onshore winds will eventually develop near Lake Superior during the Afternoon which will result in falling temperatures along the North and South Shore.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies can be expected for Monday Night with lows in the 30s to around 40 degrees.  Southwest winds on Monday will become easterly at 10-20 mph by Monday Night.

Extended Forecast:

Tuesday and Tuesday Night, April 26th:  Strong area of low pressure averaging 994mb will move into Southern-Eastcentral Wisconsin with high pressure centered to our northeast.  Pressure gradient will tighten up between the low and high which will result in gusty east-northeast winds especially near Lake Superior.  Today's forecast models are showing 850mb wind speeds increasing to 40-55 knots in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota and this could result in wind gusts >40 mph near Lake Superior Tuesday and Tuesday Night.  The high to our northeast will advect dry air southwest into our area, while the low to our S-SE tries to bring some moisture north into our area.  We've seen this type of scenario play out many many times during the past few months, and usually the dry air wins out with a sharp cut-off in the precipitation.  At this time it appears that Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota have the best chance for getting some rain during this period while dry conditions hold on in Northern Minnesota through the Arrowhead.  Dynamic/evaportive cooling may cause the rain to mix with or even turn to sleet or wet snow at times, especially by Tuesday Night in Northwest Wisconsin.  It's possible that there will be some slushy snow accumulation, mainly on grassy surfaces Tuesday Night in portions of Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s in Northern Minnesota with 30s and 40s elsewhere.  Lows Tuesday Night will mainly be in the 30s.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night, April 27th:  Low pressure at the surface and aloft will park itself over the Western Great Lakes with a continued chance for rain and or snow showers in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with mainly dry conditions for Northern Minnesota.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the 40s with 30s near Lake Superior.  Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 30s.

Another storm may affect the region during the Friday Night-Sunday, April 29th-May 1st time frame.  Plenty of model differences are showing up, however, in regards to the intensity and track of this system.  We could see some rain at times this weekend, and there might even be some snow that mixes in with the rain toward Sunday or Sunday Night (the 1st day of May) as colder air wraps around the surface low.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 58 to 63 but turning cooler near Lake Superior during the Afternoon.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph, becoming east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday...  Breezy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.

.Tuesday...  Windy and colder.  Mostly cloudy.  Light rain possible during the Afternoon.  High 40 to 45.  Wind east at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Windy.  Mostly cloudy.  Light rain or snow possible.  Low 30 to 33.  Wind east at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

.Wednesday...  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 40 to 45.  Wind northeast at 15 to 25 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 45 to 50.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  54
Low:  33

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:04 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:10 PM CDT

Tim

Saturday, April 23, 2011

4/23/11: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:12 PM CDT, Saturday, April 23rd, 2011

Several inches of snow accumulated late last night and early This Morning in portions of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Here are some snowfall reports from Friday and Saturday, April 22nd-23rd, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Gile, WI (Iron county)  5.0"
2 miles east of Wales, MN (Lake county)  4.2"
Glidden, WI (Ashland county)  4.0"
Babbitt, MN (St. Louis county)  3.0"
3 miles west of Butternut, WI (Ashland county)  2.5"
Chisholm, MN (St. Louis county)  2.5"
Park Falls, WI (Price county)  2.2"
Silver Bay, MN (Lake county)  2.0"
Embarrass, MN (St. Louis county)  2.0"
Saginaw, MN (St. Louis county)  1.5"
5 miles northwest of Grand Marais, MN (Cook county)  1.0"

Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  0.6" measured at the NWS.

Precipitation totals from Friday-early Saturday, April 22nd-23rd, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

International Falls, MN:  0.23"
Brainerd, MN:  0.52"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.39"
Hibbing, MN:  0.64"
Ashland, WI:  0.45"
Hayward, WI:  0.20"
Dixon Lake, MN:  0.51"
Littlefork, MN:  0.40"
Northome, MN:  0.35"
Cook, MN:  0.43"
Embarrass, MN:  0.64"
Floodwood, MN:  0.49"
Upson, WI:  0.70"

Duluth, MN:  0.47" measured at the NWS.

Note:  Another severe thunderstorm outbreak developed Friday Evening, April 22nd, 2011 across portions of the Southern Plains, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley areas.  309 severe weather reports/26 tornadoes occurred in these areas per Storm Prediction Center

Weather Headlines:

*Scattered showers end This Evening
*Mainly dry late Tonight through Monday
*Warmer temperatures move in for Sunday and Monday
*Model agreement is poor for next Tuesday and Wednesday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure which brought the rain and snow to our area Friday Night and This Morning has moved into Western Quebec Province late This Afternoon with high pressure centered in Western Nebraska.  Skies were mostly cloudy Today with spotty instability showers moving southeast through Northern-Northeast Minnesota.  Highs Today were mainly in the 40s, but a few locales were close to 50 degrees This Afternoon.  Winds were out of the north or northwest under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A west-southwest 500mb flow was in place from the Southern Rockies through the Central Plains and Northeast U.S. while a west-northwest H5 flow stretched from the Northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest.  An upper level trough covered the Pacific Northwest per water vapor satellite imagery with several disturbances heading E-NE through the Southern Rockies to Ohio Valley.

Tonight:

Scattered showers will end by mid-Evening.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with lows mainly in the 30s.  Winds will be out of the north or west under 15 mph.

Easter Sunday and Sunday Night:

High pressure will head east out of the Western High Plains with a milder southwest wind developing in our area.  Highs on Sunday will be in the 50s to lower 60s with lows Sunday Night in the 30s to around 40 degrees.  Partly to mostly sunny skies are forecast Tomorrow with the possibility for a few Afternoon showers in Northern Minnesota.  Sunday Night will be dry with partly cloudy skies.  Winds will be out of the southwest at 10-20 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Monday and Monday Night, April 25th:  Looks dry in our area with a stationary front off to our north while low pressure develops in the Southcentral Plains.  Highs on Monday will be in the 50s and 60s, but it will be turning cooler near Lake Superior as onshore winds develop.  Lows Monday Night will be in the 30s to lower 40s.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night, April 26th:  Model differences continue during this period with the track of a low pressure system.  The GEM-GLOBAL, UK, and EURO models are farther west-north with this system which would result in rain spreading into Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast-Eastern Minnesota Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night.  The GFS is farther south-east which would keep most of our area dry.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s with 30s near Lake Superior.  Lows Tuesday Night will mainly be in the 30s.  Note:  Strong E-NE winds could develop during this period near Lake Superior, especially if this low takes the northern route.  A few of the models during the past few days have shown 850mb wind speeds increasing to 40 to 60 knots on Tuesday which would result in wind gusts >35 mph.

Some lingering showers are possible Wednesday and Thursday, April 27th-28th as an upper level trough pushes slowly east across the Upper Midwest.  It does appear that the secondary low which will develop in the Southern Plains on Wednesday will track too far east to give us any rain or snow for mid-week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Scattered showers before 9 PM.  Considerable cloudiness with partial clearing late.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Easter Sunday...  Warmer.  First time above 50 degrees since April 13th.  Partly sunny.  High 57 to 62.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 58 to 63 but turning cooler near Lake Superior late in the day.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Tuesday...  Mostly cloudy and cooler.  Breezy.  Rain possible.  High 40 to 45.  East wind gusting to 30 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Rain possible.  Low 33 to 35.

.Wednesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  53
Low:  32

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:06 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:09 PM CDT

Tim

Friday, April 22, 2011

4/22/11: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:38 PM CDT, Friday, April 22nd, 2011

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota:

*9, the number of days since our last above average high temperature and the number of days since our last 50+ degree day
*Average monthly temperature (thru the 21st) 37.6 degrees/0.7 degrees above average

Weather History:

On this date in 1990:  A record high temperature of 80 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather Headlines:

*Rain re-develops This Evening
*Some snow could mix with the rain in some areas Overnight
*Sunday still looks like the better day of the weekend
*Major model differences showing up for next week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Part one of this two part storm affected our area last night and early Today.  Light rain with amounts generally under 0.10" were found in portions of the area with 0.04" the official rain total at Duluth, Minnesota.  This lead disturbance pushed off to our east This Morning, widespread clouds lingered through the day as we await the main part of the storm which was over South Dakota This Afternoon.  Rain was starting to increase at mid-Afternoon in portions of Western, Central, and Southern Minnesota as forcing associated with the Northern Plains low spreads east into the Upper Midwest.  Highs Today ranged from the middle 30s to lower 40s along the North Shore of Lake Superior with 40s to lower 50s farther inland.  Winds Today were out of the east or southeast at 5-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph near Lake Superior.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Vigorous 500mb low and upper level trough with 60-90 meter 12 hour H5 height falls was moving east out of the Northern Plains This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.  A strong temperature gradient was in place Today which is adding fuel to this storm.  Afternoon 850mb temps ranged from -2 degrees C at International Falls, Minnesota to +6 degrees C at Sioux Falls, South Dakota to +14 degrees C at Wichita, Kansas.  Surface temperatures ranged from the 80s in Southeast Kansas and Northern Arkansas with 30s in portions of North Dakota.

Tonight:

Low pressure will track east out of South Dakota while another low heads northeast from Northern Missouri.  PWS of around 1/2" combined with warm advection and some decent forcing will cause widespread rain in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight.  Dynamic cooling along with 850mb temperatures around -2 degrees C might be enough to allow the rain to mix with and change to snow late Tonight in the Arrowhead of Minnesota and in portions of Northwest Wisconsin.  Lows Tonight will be in the 30s with east or north winds at 5-15 mph with a few higher gusts.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

Low pressure will reach Northern LOWER Michigan/Eastern UPPER Michigan area Tomorrow Morning, the low will then move into Eastern Canada Tomorrow Afternoon.  Lingering rain showers are possible across our area behind this low on Saturday and some snow could mix with the rain in some areas Tomorrow Morning.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 40s to around 50 degrees.  Dry weather will return to the area Saturday Night with lows mainly in the 30s.  Mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies are forecast Tomorrow with partly to mostly cloudy skies Tomorrow Night.  Winds will be out of the north or west at 10-20 mph during this period.

Note:  Precipitation totals of 0.10-0.35" are expected by Saturday Morning in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with localized higher amounts of 0.50".  Snowfall totals of 1-2" are possible late Tonight and early Saturday in the Arrowhead of Minnesota and in far Northern Wisconsin.

Extended Forecast:

Sunday and Monday look dry at this time as high pressure moves through the Upper Midwest.  Temperatures will finally moderate back toward average, perhaps even a few degrees above average with highs in the 50s to lower 60s for Sunday and Monday.  Low temperatures will mainly be in the 30s Sunday Night and Monday Night.  Lots of model differences showing up from Tuesday-Thursday of next week, April 26th-28th.  Two seperate lows are expected to develop in the Southern-Central Plains with both lows heading northeast into the Great Lakes.  How far west/northwest these lows track will determine just how much precipitation falls in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Temperatures look warm enough for rain if these storms hit us, although the EUROPEAN model looks cold enough to possibly support a snow/rain mixture with that second storm for Wednesday-Thursday.  Note:  The 00z and 12z EUROPEAN model from Today is showing another very large and potent storm across the Central Plains/Upper Midwest/Great Lakes next weekend, April 30th-May 2nd.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Rain.  Patchy fog.  Rain could become mixed with snow Overnight.  Low 32 to 35.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph becoming north to northeast after Midnight.

.Saturday...  Scattered rain showers.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 45 to 50.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Becoming partly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Easter Sunday...  Warmer.  First time above 50 since April 13th.  Partly sunny.  High 52 to 57.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60 but turning cooler near Lake Superior.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Tuesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Rain possible.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  52
Low:  32

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:07 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:08 PM CDT

Tim

Thursday, April 21, 2011

4/21/11: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:37 PM CDT, Thursday, April 21st, 2011

30 day outlook for May 2011 issued by the Climate Prediction Center, Thursday April 21st, 2011.

For Duluth, MN:

33% chance for below normal temperatures with equal chances for above normal, below normal, or normal precipitation.

90 day outlook for May-July 2011 issued by the Climate Prediction Center, Thursday, April 21st, 2011.

For Duluth, MN:

40% chance for below temperatures with equal chances for above normal, below normal, or normal precipitation.

Weather History:

On this date in 1990:  A record high temperature of 76 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
On this date in 1991:  A record low temperature of 18 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather Headlines:

*Rain or a mix of rain/snow develops Tonight
*Main brunt of this next storm arrives Friday Afternoon and continues into early Saturday
*Accumulating snow could develop for parts of our area Friday Night
*Easter weekend looks pleasant with Sunday being the warmer day of the two

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

One of the nicer days we have seen in a while as high pressure pushed off to our east causing southerly winds across our area.  High temperatures Today were in the middle 40s to lower 50s which is within a few degrees of average for late April.  Mostly sunny skies during the Morning gave way to increasing clouds during the Afternoon as low pressure heads through the Central Rockies, this low brought some rain to the Eastern Dakotas and parts of Southcentral Minnesota Today and this area of rain is northeast bound late This Afternoon.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Southwest flow aloft has developed in the Upper Midwest Today as another potent upper level low/upper trough progresses east through the Pacific Northwest, Northern/Central Rockies.  A lead disturbance out ahead of the main system was moving E/NE across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Today.  Quite a temperature contrast is in place which will help energize this storm system.  Afternoon temperatures ranged from the 80s and 90s across Texas to the 30s in portions of North Dakota.

Tonight:

Low pressure will pull out in the Western High Plains and Southcentral Plains with high pressure centered well to our east.  Southerly flow between the high and low will draw increasing amounts of moisture north into our area Tonight and this combined with a disturbance moving east out of the Northern Plains will cause some rain which will spread southwest to northeast from mid-Evening through the Overnight hours.  The majority of the precipitation that falls Tonight should be in the form of rain, but with 850mb temperatures hanging around -2 degrees C there might be some wet snow that mixes in with the rain, but little or no accumulation of snow is expected for Tonight.  Lows will mainly be in the 30s with skies turning overcast along with south or east winds under 20 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

Low pressure heads northeast out of the Central Plains while a secondary low moves E/NE out of South Dakota.  Accompaning this low will be an upper level low/upper trough which will move into our area Friday Night.  Sufficient moisture and lift already in place will cause a more meaningful bout of precipitation in Northern-Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Friday Afternoon through Friday Night.  This system will be quite dynamic and this may help in pulling down enough cold air behind the low to turn the rain over to a period of snow Friday Evening/Overnight in portions of our area.  If this change over occurs early enough, then it's possible that a 1-3" band of snow could affect parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin by early Saturday Morning.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Tomorrow Night generally in the 30s.  Winds will be out of the east on Friday at 10-20 mph with north or east winds Friday Night at 10-20 mph.

Note:  Precipitation totals between Tonight and Friday Night will be in the one quarter to one half inch range for Northcentral, Eastcentral, and Northeast Minnesota with a quarter inch or less for Northern Minnesota.  Northwest Wisconsin can expect between one half to one inch of precipitation.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure moves into Eastern Canada on Saturday with any lingering rain or snow showers in our area ending during the Morning hours.  The rest of Saturday into Sunday look dry at this time as high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest.  Highs on Saturday will mainly be in the 40s with lows Saturday Night in the 30s.  Sunday's high temperatures should reach the 50s with even an outside shot at 60 degrees in a few locales as southwest winds develop.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the 30s.  The next threat for rain moves in Monday Night or Tuesday and lingers into Wednesday, still plenty of model differences for next week, however, so things could change.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Light rain developing between 9-11 PM with occasional light rain Overnight.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 33 to 36.  Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  Drizzle possible at times with steadier rain developing after 3 PM.  High 36 to 40.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.

.Friday Night...  Rain or a mixture of rain and snow.  Low 31 to 34.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 20 mph, becoming north Overnight.

.Saturday...  A few rain or snow showers possible during the Morning, becoming partly sunny.  High 45 to 50.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Easter Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 52 to 57.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 53 to 58.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  52
Low:  31

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:09 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:06 PM CDT

Tim

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

4/20/11: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:30 PM CDT, Wednesday, April 20th, 2011

A significant winter storm hit portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin on Tuesday, April 19th, 2011.  Here are some snowfall totals from various National Weather Service Offices.

Ashwaubenon, WI:  10.1"
Appleton, WI:  9.4"
Bellevue, WI:  9.4"
Menasha, WI:  9.0"
La Crosse, WI:  8.3"
Wautoma, WI:  7.2"
6 miles south of Caledonia, MN:  6.7"
Fond Du Lac, WI;  4.8"
Grand Meadow, MN:  4.2"
Wisconsin Dells:  4.0"
Preston, MN:  3.8"

Here are some local snowfall reports from Tuesday Night/Wednesday Morning, April 19th-20th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Trade Lake, WI (Burnett county)  2.0"
4 miles northeast of Askov, MN (Pine county)  1.1"
5 miles south of Herbster, WI (Bayfield county)  1.0"

Note:  The same storm that produced the heavy snow in parts of the Upper Midwest on Tuesday also caused another massive outbreak of severe thunderstorms in portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Southern Plains.  There were 906 severe weather reports including 34 tornadoes on Tuesday per Storm Prediction Center.

Weather Tidbits:

*So far there have been 272 tornadoes this month which makes April 2011 the most active on record in terms of the number of tornadoes.  The previous record was 267 which occurred in 1974.  Source:  Dr. Greg Forbes (TWC)

April 2011 (thru the 20th) climate stats for Duluth, MN:

Number of days with a high temperature of at least 50 degrees:  5
Number of days with a high temperature of at least 60 degrees:  1

15/20 days has had at least a trace of precipitation
10/20 days has had at least a trace of snow

April 2010 climate stats for Duluth, MN:

Number of days with a high temperature of at least 50 degrees:  16
Number of days with a high temperature of at least 60 degrees:    9
Number of days with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees:    2

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

An upper level disturbance moving across our area combined with cold temperatures aloft (around -32 degree C H5 temps) and steep mid level lapse rates around 7.0 c/km caused scattered Afternoon instability rain and snow showers across our area.  Highs Today were in the middle 30s to middle 40s with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies along with variable or west winds under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A west-northwest 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest Today in wake of Tuesday's storm system which was moving into Eastern Canada late Today per water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight:

Scattered light rain and or snow showers will end This Evening, otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy skies as high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest.  Lows Tonight will mainly be in the 20s with north or west winds under 1 5mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

High pressure will move off to our south/east during this period as low pressure moves into the Rockies/Western High Plains.  Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies are forecast on Thursday with highs in the 40s and 50s.  Clouds will increase Thursday Night with the possibility for some light rain later in the night.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s.  Winds will be out of the south or west on Thursday with east winds Thursday Night, wind speeds will remain below 20 mph through this period.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will track south/southeast of our area Friday and Friday Night.  850mb temperatures will be cold enough (-1/-4 degrees C) to support snow for parts of our area Friday into early Saturday, but surface temperatures are expected to be warm enough to keep the majority of the precipitation as rain, the exception to this might be in Northern-Northeastern Minnesota will the rain could mix with or change to snow Friday Night with a dusting to a few inches of accumulation not out of the question.  Highs on Friday will be in the 30s to lower 40s with lows Friday Night in the 20s and 30s.  Dry weather should return to the area this weekend with highs on Saturday in the 40s and 50s with lows Saturday Night in the 30s.

Quite a bit of model uncertainty showing up for the early to mid part of next week.  Today's GFS, HPC, and GEM-GLOBAL models show a rather potent storm lifting into the Upper Midwest with rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms for next Monday-Tuesday.  The last two runs per EURO model show a weaker and more progressive system with any precipitation confined to Monday.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Variable cloudiness.  Spotty light showers early.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 48 to 53.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Becoming mostly cloudy.  Low 31 to 34.  Wind becoming east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Occasional rain.  Mostly cloudy.  High 36 to 39.

.Friday Night...  Occasional rain, mainly during the Evening.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 31 to 34.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 46 to 51.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Easter Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 50 to 55.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  51
Low:  31

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:11 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:05 PM CDT

Tim

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

4/19/11: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:49 PM CDT, Tuesday, April 19th, 2011

Weather Headlines:

*Late season snowstorm missing the Northland Tonight
*Some areas could still get some snow showers/flurries Tonight-Wednesday
*Mild Thursday ahead
*Next system set to arrive Friday-early Saturday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Strong area of low pressure averaging 998mb was centered in Eastern Missouri late This Afternoon with a high pressure ridge of 1020-1024mb off to our northwest, north, and northeast.  Snow, heavy at times with embedded thunderstorms have occurred Today northwest of that Missouri low from Southern Minnesota through Central-Eastern Wisconsin while our area was influenced more by the high which resulted in mainly dry conditions along with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies.  Highs Today were in the middle 30s to middle 40s with east or northeast winds at 5-15 mph with gusts over 25 mph closer to Lake Superior.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A quick moving, but potent 500mb trough was pushing east through the Central Plains per water vapor satellite imagery.  A 140 knot upper level jet was located in Eastern Canada while a 110 knot jet streak blasts east-southeast through the Central/Southern Rockies Today.  Note:  A tremendous temperature gradient was in place This Afternoon ranging from 35 degrees at Chicago, Illinois to 79 degrees at Peoria, Illinois to 88 degrees at Fort Smith, Arkansas.  This temperature contrast, plus the strong jet stream winds are helping to energize this storm in the Plains Today.

Tonight:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover Northern Minnesota with overcast skies elsewhere.  Expect some snow to spread into portions of Northwest Wisconsin Tonight, mainly south-southeast of a line from Hayward to Mercer.  Snowfall accumulations of 1-3" are possible in Sawyer and Price counties Wisconsin by Wednesday Morning.  The remainder of our area could see some flurries or snow showers at times, but no accumulation is expected.  Low pressure will track from Eastern Missouri to Northern Ohio by dawn while a disturbance heads east-southeast out of the Dakotas with high pressure remaining to our north.  Lows Tonight will mainly be in the 20s to around 30 degrees with east or north winds up to 20 mph.

Note:  *Winter Weather Advisory* is in effect from 9 PM CDT Tonight until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for Sawyer and Price counties Wisconsin.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  Hayward WI...Winter WI...Exeland WI...Park Falls WI...Phillips WI...and Ogema WI.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Low pressure will move into Eastern Canada with a weak disturbance pushing through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies are expected Tomorrow with a few snow showers or flurries possible.  Partly cloudy skies are forecast Wednesday Night.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s.  Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

High pressure will move across our area on Thursday with southerly winds resulting in high temperatures getting back closer to average for late April.  Highs will be in the 40s and 50s.  Thursday Night through early Saturday could turn wet at times as a low pressure system heads through the Upper Midwest.  Most of the significant moisture/rainfall should remain well to our south, but some rain can still be expected for Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from late Thursday Night into early Saturday.  There might be some wet snow mixing with the rain especially Friday Night, but no accumulations of snow are expected at this time.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the 30s with highs Friday in the 30s and 40s, lows Friday Night will be in the 30s.

The Easter holiday weekend looks mainly dry, after early Saturday Morning with some areas possibly getting close to 60 degrees by Sunday.

The next storm system that could impact the Upper Midwest would occur during the early or middle part of next week, April 25th-27th.  This storm could bring some rain and perhaps even a few thunderstorms to our local area.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Variable cloudiness.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph with a few higher gusts.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  Snow flurries possible.  High 38 to 43.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.

.Thursday Night...  Becoming mostly cloudy.  Low 31 to 34.

.Friday...  Occasional rain possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 38 to 43.

.Friday Night...  Occasional rain possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 31 to 34.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 46 to 51.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  51
Low:  30

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:13 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:04 PM CDT

Tim

Second storm chase of 2011

Sunday, April 10th, 2011 had the potential of being a BIG day in terms of severe weather and tornadoes in Wisconsin, and numerous supercells did develop late Sunday Afternoon-Evening, but the bulk of the tornadoes stayed in the Northcentral-Eastern portion of the Badger state, plus storm motions on Sunday were extremely fast >55 mph, very hard to keep up with a storm when there moving that fast!

Dan and I were in Tomah, Wisconsin which is a little bit east-northeast of La Crosse.  A tornado warned cell moved through Tomah, WI but nothing really came out of it, except for a ton of rain, some small hail, gusty winds maybe to around 30-35 mph, and some lightning.  After the storm moved through I was able to take some very nice pictures of billowing CB's, a rainbow, and a very nice looking sunset.

The chase on Saturday, April 9th, 2011 was much much better than Sunday:  Thank you Iowa :)  Enjoy the pics.

~Tim











First stormchase of 2011

Here are some photos of my first chase of 2011.  I was in Western Iowa on Saturday, April 9th, 2011.  I was chasing with my buddy Dan.  We were near Ida Grove, IA which is a bit east-northeast of Mapleton, IA.  Enjoy the pics!

~Tim






Monday, April 18, 2011

4/18/11: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:33 PM CDT, Monday, April 18th, 2011

All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 6 PM CDT Tuesday until 12 PM CDT Wednesday for the following counties in Northwest Wisconsin:  Ashland...Iron...Sawyer...and Price.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  Ashland WI...Butternut WI...Hurley WI...Gile WI...Upson WI...Hayward WI...Exeland WI...Winter WI...Park Falls WI...Phillips WI...and Ogema WI.

Impacts:  Snow will develop in portions of Northwest Wisconsin Tuesday Evening.  The snow may start as a mixture of rain, sleet, and snow before turning to all snow by late tuesday Night.  The snow is expected to continue into Wednesday Morning before ending Wednesday Afternoon.  Total snowfall accumulations of 2-4" are expected in the advisory area by Wednesday Afternoon.

*Roads could become snow covered and slippery Tuesday Night and Wednesday Morning.  Use caution and slow down if you plan to travel.

A winter weather advisory for snow means that accumulating snow will cause travel difficulties.  Be prepared for snow covered roads and reduced visibility and use caution while driving.  Allow extra time to reach your destination.

U.S. severe weather data.  Source:  SPC.

Preliminary tornado count for April 2011 (thru the 17th)  406
Preliminary tornado count for 2011:  598 (thru the 17th of April)
Number of severe weather reports so far in 2011:  6,481

2010 from January-April had 276 tornado reports and 2,478 severe weather reports.

Note:  Severe weather reports consist of hail at least 1.00" in diameter and or damaging wind gusts of at least 60 mph.

Weather Headlines:

*Dry Tonight
*Biggest snows expected to fall south/southeast of the Northland Tuesday-Wednesday
*A very active weather pattern continues thru at least early next week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure of 1018mb was in control of our weather Today with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies across our area.  Another day of below normal high temperatures with readings only in the 30s with some 40s in southern areas.  Winds Today were variable or east-northeast in direction under 15 mph.

Tonight:

High pressure will remain in control of our weather while low pressure pulls out into the Southcentral Plains.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with lows in the 20s, but a few teens are possible in far Northern Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the north or east under 15 mph.

Tuesday:

High pressure heads north-northeast of our area with low pressure of around 995mb lifting northeast out of the Southcentral Plains into Central Illinois by late Tuesday Night.  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tomorrow with highs in the 30s and 40s with east or northeast winds at 10-25 mph.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday:

Low pressure is forecast to move from Central Illinois to the Eastern Great Lakes.  Precipitation associated with this low will spread north Tuesday Evening with snow or a mix of rain and snow turning to all snow developing in Northwest Wisconsin with some light snow/flurries developing in Eastcentral Minnesota.  Snow will end from west to east on Wednesday as the area of low pressure moves farther off to the east.  Mostly cloudy skies are expected during this period with lows Tuesday Night in the 20s to around 30 degrees with highs Wednesday in the 30s and 40s.

Note:  Total snowfall accumulations of 2-4" are expected Tuesday Night and Wednesday east of a line from Ashland to Hayward, Wisconsin.  1-2" are possible for the rest of Northwest Wisconsin, with around an inch possible in Eastcentral Minnesota.

Extended Forecast:

Looks mainly dry for Wednesday Night and Thursday with the next low pressure system heading out into the Southern-Central Plains late this week, this next low will then move into the Central/Eastern Great Lakes by Saturday, April 23rd.  Another round of light rain or snow is possible for portions of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Thursday Night through early Saturday.  Lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night will be in the 20s and 30s with highs on Thursday in the 40s to lower 50s.

Another storm could move into the Upper Midwest sometime between Sunday-Tuesday, April 24th-26th, this one could bring with it a thunderstorm threat per latest EURO model.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 24 to 29.  Wind east to northeast around 12 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 36 to 41.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Snow showers or flurries developing.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 27 to 32.  Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday...  Snow showers or flurries possible.  Total snowfall accumulations around 1".  Mostly cloudy.  High 37 to 42.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 47 to 52.

.Thursday Night...  Becoming mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 33.

.Friday...  Light rain or snow possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  50
Low:  30

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:14 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:02 PM CDT

Tim