Thursday, March 31, 2011

3/31/11: Thursday's Weather Report

This is my 1000th weather blog, so I wanted to thank everyone who takes time out to read it.  Thank you very much!!!

Issued at 5:02 PM CDT, Thursday, March 31st, 2011

Weather Tidbits:

*Today marks the 3rd day in a row with a high temperature of at least 40 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.  Gotta go back to February 15th-17th, 2011 for the last such occurrence of three consecutive days with a maximum temperature of at least 40 degrees.

*March 2011 had 18 days with a high temperature of at least 32 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota with 7 days with a high temperature of at least 40 degrees.

*For the 1st time in 9 years and only the 17th time in 137 years of weather records, February produced a maximum temperature warmer than March in the same calendar year at Duluth, Minnesota.  Warmest high temperature in February was 52 degrees on the 16th.  Warmest high temperature in March was 46 degrees on the 17th.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

COLD AND WET APRIL AHEAD?  Here's the updated outlook for April 2011 per CPC:

For Duluth, Minnesota:

40% chance for Below Normal Temperatures with a 40% chance for Above Normal Precipitation.

Note:  Average high temperature at Duluth, Minnesota climbs from 41 degrees on the 1st to 57 degrees on the 30th while the average low temperature goes from 23 degrees on the 1st to 35 degrees on the 30th.

Weather History:

*On this date last year, a record high temperature of 71 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
*On this date in 2009, 6.2" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

The North Shore of Lake Superior, through the Twin Ports, and Interstate 35 corridor saw quite a bit more sunshine then what was forecasted 24 hours ago, while skies were a lot cloudier in Northcentral Minnesota and also in portions of Northwest Wisconsin.  There's been some light precipitation in the form of wet snow, drizzle, and light rain Today in parts of Northern and Central Minnesota, but this precipitation is having some difficulty in pushing much farther to the east.  Highs Today ranged from the middle 30s to middle 40s with south or east winds under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery with a very strong upper level jet with speeds >140 knots lined up Western Canada through the Northern Rockies, Northern and Westcentral Plains per RUC model analysis.  Minnesota sits to the east of this potent jet, thus we are in a favorable area for a few disturbances to drop south-east out of Manitoba Province.

Tonight and Friday:

Expect mostly cloudy skies or increasing clouds This Evening, followed by overcast conditions Overnight into Friday.  Areas of light snow and drizzle will occur at times as a low pressure disturbance moves south/east across the Upper Midwest.  Note:  Snowfall accumulations of 1" or less are possible by Friday with a spotty 2" total not out of the question.  Lows Tonight will be in the 20s and 30s with highs Tomorrow in the 30s and lower 40s.  South, east, or west winds under 15 mph can be expected Tonight with wind speeds of 20 mph or less for Friday.

Friday Night:

Mostly cloudy skies are expected with lingering flurries or snow showers for Northeast Minnesota.  Lows will be in the 20s to around 30 with northwest winds at 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Saturday and Saturday Night will be dry across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with highs in the 30s and 40s with lows in the 20s.  Sunday and Monday, April 3rd and 4th should remain dry for Northern Minnesota, while some wet snow or rain could occur for southern areas...Mainly along and south of a Brainerd to Hinckley to Hayward to Park Falls line.  No major accumulations of snow or rain are expected for those areas the way it looks now.  A strong area of low pressure will track through the Northern-Central Rockies on Sunday, moving out into the Central Plains Sunday Night, before lifting E-NE toward the Southern Great Lakes/LOWER Michigan area on Monday...Based on this projected storm track, the heavier amounts of rain or snow would fall south of our local area for Sunday and Monday.  High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Sunday Night in the 20s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Clouding up.  Occasional light snow and drizzle developing between 9-11 PM.  Snow accumulation of 1" or less by dawn.  Low 28 to 32.  Wind southeast around 12 mph.

.Friday...  Occasional light snow and drizzle.  Mostly cloudy.  High 37 to 40.  Wind becoming northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night...  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 27 to 32.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 38 to 43.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 37 to 42.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  41
Low:  23

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:49 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   7:37 PM CDT

Tim

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

3/30/11: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 8:05 PM CDT, Wednesday, March 30th, 2011

Weather Tidbit:

*Trace of snow currently on the ground at Duluth, Minnesota.  Today, the 30th of March 2011 marks the first time since November 13th, 2010 with a snow depth of a trace or less.

Weather History:

One year ago Today the high temperature was 63 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Another very nice early spring day across the area with plenty of sunshine and just a few passing mid and high level clouds.  Highs Today were generally in the 40s, except for some 30s closer to Lake Superior.  Winds were light and variable under 12 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Blocking pattern as of late is starting to break down as a very potent 150+ knot upper level jet blasts southeast out of Western Canada through the Northern-Central Rockies/Western High Plains per RUC model analysis.  This is helping to erode the persistent H5 trough which had been over Central Canada and the Upper Midwest during the last few days.

Tonight:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area with high pressure centered just off to our east.  Lows will be in the teens and 20s with south or southeast winds under 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Should have less sunshine Tomorrow compared to previous days as a low pressure trough heads east through the Northern Plains.  Southerly winds will be in place out ahead of this system which will draw some moisture north into the Upper Midwest.  Most of Tomorrow looks dry for our local area, but some rain or snow showers could develop by mid or late Afternoon generally west of an International Falls to Brainerd line.  By Thursday Night, the risk for some rain and or wet snow will increase from west to east as a trough of low pressure moves into the Upper Midwest.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s and 30s.  Winds will be out of the south or east under 20 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will continue to move south/east on Friday, this system should reach the Southern Great Lakes by Friday Evening.  Some additional wet snow and or rain will likely be found in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Friday before mainly dry conditions return for Friday Night through Saturday Night. 

Note:  Precipitation totals should be under 0.25" from Thursday Afternoon through Friday Afternoon with snowfall accumulations of 1" or less, although a spotty 2" total is not out of the question...But those should be few and far between.

Highs for Friday and Saturday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Friday Night and Saturday Night in the 20s.

Mainly dry conditions should continue for Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Sunday through Tuesday, April 3rd-5th...There will be a storm system crossing the Rockies this weekend before it pulls out into the Central Plains/Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley areas early next week, right now it looks like the bulk of the precipitation (rain or snow) would remain to our south, although the area along and south of a line from Brainerd to Hinckley to Hayward and Park Falls could see some snow or rain from Sunday through Monday, but it doesn't look like it would be a very big deal at the moment.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind south to southeast around 12 mph.

.Thursday...  Considerable cloudiness.  High 38 to 43.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Light snow or rain developing between 9-11 PM, then continuing at times Overnight.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 29 to 32.  Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Occasional light snow and rain.  Total snow accumulations of 1" or less.  Mostly cloudy.  High 37 to 40.

.Friday Night...  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 27 to 32.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 38 to 43.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  41
Low:  23

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:50 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   7:36 PM CDT

Tim

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

3/29/11: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:01 PM CDT, Tuesday, March 29th, 2011

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A ridge of high pressure averaging 1028mb covered the Upper Midwest which resulted in another day of sunny skies, light winds, and near average temperatures for the final days of March.  Highs Today were in the middle 30s to middle 40s.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb trough covered Central-Eastern Canada and the Northeast U.S. with a weak westerly upper level flow in place across the Upper Midwest.  An active jet stream with a couple low pressure systems continue to push into the Pacific Northwest and Rockies, through the Southcentral U.S.

Tonight through Wednesday Night:

High pressure will remain in control of our weather during this period with clear to partly cloudy skies.  Lows Tonight and Wednesday Night will be in the teens and 20s with some single digits possible Tonight in the typical cold spots.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s.  Winds will be variable less than 12 mph Tonight, winds will become south or east Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A low pressure trough will slide into the Upper Midwest for Thursday and Friday, this system could bring some light rain or snow to our area late this week, but no major accumulations are expected at this time.  This weekend and early next week look mainly dry for our area with the next storm system likely taking the familar southern route for Sunday and Monday...Meaning the threat for rain or wet snow for Southern Minnesota and portions of Wisconsin, while Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin remain generally dry.  High temperatures for Thursday and Friday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Thursday Night and Friday Night in the 20s and 30s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Clear.  Low 12 to 17.  Wind variable under 10 mph.

.Wednesday...  Mostly sunny.  High 40 to 45.  Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind southeast around 12 mph.

.Thursday...  Becoming mostly cloudy.  High 38 to 43.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or rain possible.  Low 28 to 32.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  Light rain or snow possible.  High 37 to 42.

.Friday Night...  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 27 to 32.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  40
Low:  22

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:52 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   7:35 PM CDT

Tim

Monday, March 28, 2011

3/28/11: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:29 PM CDT, Monday, March 28th, 2011

Weather Tidbits:

*Sunday's (March 27th) low temperature of 1 above zero at Duluth, Minnesota was the coldest minimum temperature since March 2nd when the mercury dropped to -11 degrees.

*2011 is off to a dry start at Duluth, Minnesota.  March will likely go down as the 3rd consecutive month of 2011 with below average precipitation and snowfall.

*Since January 1st, 2.24" of precipitation has fallen at Duluth, Minnesota which is 1.16" below average.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Sunny skies with near normal temperatures were found in our area Today with highs in the 30s along with light winds under 12 mph.  Surface map as of 4 PM featured a ridge of high pressure averaging 1026-1030mb from Central Canada through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes with a 1008mb area of low pressure centered in Southwest South Dakota.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

An active jet stream carrying multiple low pressure systems extends from the North and Central Pacific through the Central Rockies to the Mid-Atlantic states while a blocking pattern remained in place across the Upper Midwest, Central-Eastern Canada along with a northwest 500mb flow.

Tonight through Tuesday Night:

High pressure will remain in control of our weather.  Clear to partly cloudy skies will continue during this period with lows Tonight and Tuesday Night in the single digits and teens, but some subzero temperatures are likely especially Tonight in the traditional cold spots.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s.  Variable winds will continue under 15 mph through Tuesday Night.

Extended Forecast:

Dry and quiet weather will continue Wednesday and Wednesday Night with highs in the 30s and 40s with lows in the 20s.  Could see some showers of snow and or rain for Thursday and Friday, but no significant amounts of precipitation are expected at this time.  Highs on Thursday will be in the 30s to around 40 with lows Thursday Night generally in the 20s.  Might see another minor rain or snow event in parts of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin sometime during the Sunday-Monday time frame (April 3rd-4th)

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Tuesday...  Mostly sunny.  High 36 to 41.  Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Thursday...  Becoming mostly cloudy.  High 38 to 43.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 28 to 32.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  39
Low:  21

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:54 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   7:34 PM CDT

Tim

Saturday, March 26, 2011

3/26/11: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:35 PM CDT, Saturday, March 26th, 2011

Per NWS Duluth, MN:

*FLOOD ADVISORY* remains in effect for the Mississippi River at Fort Riply, Minnesota in Crow Wing county.  The latest stage at 3 PM CDT Today was 9.0 feet.  Flood stage is 10 feet.  The Mississippi River is forecasted to drop below 9 feet on Monday and continue receding through Thursday.

Weather History:

On this date in 2007:  A record high temperature of 72 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A day similar to Friday with below normal temperatures, lots of sunshine for inland areas while scattered lake clouds, snow showers/flurries persisted at times near Lake Superior.  The snow showers reduced visibility for very brief periods of time, but accumulations have been extremely light or non-existent.  Highs Today were in the middle 20s to lower 30s with temps in the Arrowhead right around 20 degrees.  Winds Today were out of the north or east at 5-15 mph with a few higher gusts near Lake Superior.  Surface map This Afternoon featured a few areas of high pressure averaging 1030mb stretching from Central Canada to the Upper Midwest.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

North-northwest 500mb flow was locked in place over the Upper Midwest which will detour any systems moving into the Western U.S. to our south into the middle of next week.  A cold airmass covers much of the Great Lakes, Northern Plains, and parts of the Central Plains with Afternoon 850mb temperatures ranging from -6 degrees C at Aberdeen, South Dakota; -4 degrees at Kansas City; -10 degrees C at Chicago; and -13 degrees C at Duluth.

Tonight through Sunday Night:

High pressure will remain in control of our weather during this period with clear to partly cloudy skies.  Lows Tonight and Sunday Night will be in the single digits below to lower teens above zero with a few Northern Minnesota locales possibly dropping to the teens below zero.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s to lower 30s.  North or east winds will continue under 15 mph.  Scattered lake effect clouds, snow showers/flurries will linger at times through Sunday Night near Lake Superior, but no major accumulation is expected.

Extended Forecast:

High pressure is locked in place and will continue to our area dry and quiet into the middle of next week.  Monday and Tuesday's high temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s, it's not out of the question that a few locales could sneak toward 40 by next Tuesday (which is right around average for this time of year) Low temperatures Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the teens.  Models continue to show some sort of a clipper system moving into the Upper Midwest late next week, Thursday-Friday, April 1st-2nd time frame, this system doesn't look very impressive at the moment, but it could bring some rain and or snow showers to our area as it moves through.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Scattered flurries or snow showers.  Low 6 to 11.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  Scattered flurries or snow showers.  High 25 to 30.  Wind northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind north to northeast around 12 mph.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 33 to 38.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 35 to 40.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  38
Low:  21

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:58 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   7:31 PM CDT

Tim

Friday, March 25, 2011

3/25/11: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:08 PM CDT, Friday, March 25th, 2011

Per NWS Duluth, MN:

*FLOOD ADVISORY* has been issued for Crow Wing county in Eastcentral Minnesota.  At 2 PM CDT Today the stage on the Mississippi River at Fort Ripley was 9.0 feet.  Flood stage is 10 feet.  The Mississippi River is expected to remain below flood stage through next Wednesday, March 30th, but high flows will be possible through that time.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure averaging 1032mb was centered in Northern Ontario Province This Afternoon with plenty of dry air and sunny skies in place in our area.  Temperatures were running 10 to around 20 degrees below average Today with highs in the 20s and lower 30s.  Winds were out of the east under 15 mph.  There has been some lake effect clouds, flurries and snow showers near Lake Superior Today, brief visibility reduction has occurred, but there hasn't been much in the way of accumulation.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest flow covered the Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.  500mb low was over the Pacific Northwest but this system will take the southern route in coming days.

Tonight through Saturday Night:

A fairly typical early Spring time pattern has evolved for our area as strong high pressure remains nearly stationary over Central Canada which will force the storm track well to our south through most of next week.  Look for clear to partly cloudy skies with some extra cloudiness at times, especially near Lake Superior where a few lake effect flurries or snow showers could fall at times, but little if any accumulation is expected.  Lows Tonight and Saturday Night will be in the single digits below to lower teens above zero with some Northern Minnesota locales possibly going as low as the teens below.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 20s to lower 30s.  Easterly winds will occur during this period under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

The period from Sunday through Wednesday, March 27th-30th looks generally dry with high temperatures for Sunday and Monday in the 20s to lower 30s with lows Sunday Night and Monday Night in the single digits below to lower teens above zero.  Looks like a possible clipper type system moving into the Upper Midwest late next week, Thursday-Friday March 31st-April 1st time frame, might see a few showers of rain and or snow with that feature, but nothing major is expected at this time.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Scattered flurries.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  Scattered flurries.  High 26 to 31.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Scattered flurries.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  Scattered flurries.  High 25 to 30.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 33 to 38.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  38
Low:  20

Sunrise Tomorrow:  7:00 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   7:29 PM CDT

Tim

Thursday, March 24, 2011

3/24/11: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:32 PM CDT, Thursday, March 24th, 2011

Weather Tidbits.  Source:  NWS and NOHRSC

*30% of the U.S. is currently covered by snow which is up from just 14% one year ago Today.

*17.8" snowfall total from March 22nd-23rd, 2011 at Green Bay, Wisconsin makes it the highest snowstorm total in over 120 years of weather records.  This also marks the 3rd time this winter season with a 10.0" or greater snowfall total for Green Bay, WI.  Note:  No other winter has ever produced three 10+" snowfalls before this one.

*March 2010 produced 11 days with a high temperature of at least 50 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.  March 2011 looks to have zero days.

Seasonal snowfall totals for select Minnesota cities.  First number is the snowfall total thru the 23rd of March.  Second number is the departure from average.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

International Falls:           
78.2"/+19.7"

Twin Cities:
84.7"/+34.3"

St. Cloud:
63.9"/+21.0"

Duluth (NWS total)
82.6"/+9.3"

Note:  Since January 1st, only 28.9" of snow has fallen at Duluth, Minnesota.  Snow total prior to January 1st was 53.7"!  One can clearly tell by looking at these numbers that the storm track has shifted south of the Twin Ports during the last few months.  Amazingly the winter of 2010-11 will end up above average in the snowfall department, thanks to all the snow we had at the beginning.

Subzero temperatures return to the Northland This Morning.  Low temperature report for Thursday, March 24th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Brainerd, MN:  -4 degrees
Hayward, WI:  -8 degrees
Grand Marais, MN:  -2 degrees
Ely, MN:  -4 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  -6 degrees
Longville, MN:  -8 degrees
Moose Lake, MN:  -2 degrees
Siren, WI:  -6 degrees
Bruno, MN:  -4 degrees
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  -5 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Sunny skies were the rule across our area Today as high pressure of around 1028mb covered the Upper Midwest and Central Canada.  High temperatures Today were in the upper 20s to lower 30s with highs near 20 in the Arrowhead of Minnesota...Temperatures Today were about 5-10 degrees below normal for late March.  Winds Today were calm or variable in direction under 12 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Split 500mb flow was visible per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.  Our area is being dominated by a northwest upper level flow while an upper level trough and southwest flow aloft covered the Western U.S.  No major changes in the 500mb pattern are expected at least through early next week.

Tonight through Friday Night:

High pressure will remain in control of our weather which will result in chilly nights and a cool day Tomorrow.  Lows Tonight and Friday Night will be in the single digits below to lower teens above zero with some minus teens possible in Northern Minnesota.  Highs on Friday will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees.  Winds will be variable Tonight and east Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night, wind speeds will be under 15 mph.  Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected during this period with the possibility for a few lake effect flurries or light snow showers near Lake Superior.

Extended Forecast:

Tranquil weather pattern to continue into early next week with high pressure remaining in control.  The only precipitation to speak of will be near Lake Superior where a few lake effect flurries or snow showers could occur Saturday and Sunday, but this doesn't look like a big deal at the moment.  Below normal temperatures will persist with highs in the 20s to around 30 degrees for Saturday and Sunday with lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night in the single digits below to lower teens above zero.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior


.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 3 to 8.  Wind variable under 10 mph.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 27 to 32.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night...  Variable cloudiness.  Low 7 to 12.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High 25 to 30.

.Saturday Night...  Variable cloudiness.  Flurries possible.  Low 7 to 12.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  37
Low:  20

Sunrise Tomorrow:  7:02 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   7:28 PM CDT

Tim

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

3/23/11: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:17 PM CDT, Wednesday, March 23rd, 2011

March 22nd-23rd, 2011 Winter Storm Recap:

An area of low pressure moved from Nebraska through Iowa to Eastern Illinois from Tuesday into Wednesday.  This storm system brought a significant amount of snow and sleet to parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest during the past two days.  Severe weather also occurred with this storm across parts of Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Missouri, and Wisconsin on Tuesday with a total of 87 severe weather reports and 16 tornadoes...15 in Iowa and 1 in Nebraska on Tuesday.  The heavy snow had a difficult time getting north of the Highway 2 corridor due to a massive area of high pressure which was centered in Northern Ontario/Hudson Bay Canada.  A tremendous amount of dry air was pushing south off that area of high pressure and this resulted in little if any snow making it north of Highway 2. 

Note:  The computer models did an awful job with this storm for Northern Minnesota.  Every storm since December that has come out of the Western High Plains or Central Plains has done pretty much the same thing with the northern extent of the snow stopping right around the Highway 2 corridor.  For days leading up to this event, almost every computer model showed significant amounts of snow affecting Northern Minnesota.  No southward shift to the snow band were seen until Monday, that's when the NAM started to shift the snow band south of the Iron Range.  But, the real BIG shift to the south did not take place with the forecast models until Tuesday Morning, the day of the event! The GFS model (which is suppose to be one of the better forecast models) totally bombed on this storm, and this hasn't been the first time the GFS has failed miserably for Northern Minnesota during the past few months.

Snowfall reports from Tuesday and Wednesday, March 22nd-23rd, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Sarona, WI (Washburn county)  14.5"
8 miles south of Hayward, WI (Sawyer county)  14.0"
Stone Lake, WI (Washburn county)  12.0"
Winter, WI (Sawyer county)  11.5"
Phillips, WI (Price county)  11.0"
2 miles west of Hayward, WI (Sawyer county)  10.5"
Pine Center, MN (Crow Wing county)  10.0"
1 mile southwest of Hinckley, MN (Pine county)  9.0"
7 miles northwest of Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing county)  8.7"
3 mles north of Pine City, MN (Pine county)  8.5"
5 miles north of Pillager, MN (Cass county)  8.5"
Butternut, WI (Ashland county)  8.0"
5 miles east of Leader, MN (Cass county)  8.0"
Clam Lake, WI (Ashland county)  7.2"
Moose Lake, MN (Carlton county)  7.0"
Holyoke, MN (Carlton county)  6.8"
Solon Springs, WI (Douglas county)  5.0"
Glidden, WI (Ashland county)  4.0"
Bennett, WI (Douglas county)  3.5"

5 miles northwest of Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  0.3" measured at the NWS...Total thru 8:28 AM CDT Today.

A few snowfall reports from Tuesday and Wednesday from outside the Northland:

5 miles north of Isle, MN:  11.0"
Little Falls, MN:  10.3"
Rush City, MN:  9.0"
Mora, MN:  8.5"

Shiocton, WI:  15.4"
Shawano, WI:  15.2"
Rhinelander, WI:  13.4"
Sturgeon Bay, WI:  12.0"

Intense east-northeast winds battered the Twin Ports during the past 24-36 hours.  Quite a few reports of downed trees due to these winds along with some power outages.

Blatnik Bridge:  70 mph
Duluth Airport:  56 mph
Sky Harbor Airport, MN:  56 mph
Cloquet, MN:  51 mph
Two Harbors, MN:  51 mph
Maple, WI:  50 mph
Superior, WI:  47 mph

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 996mb was centered in Southeast Ohio late This Afternoon with a 1004mb low centered along the Eastern Iowa-Western Illinois state line.  High pressure of 1032mb was centered in Northern Ontario Province.  Snow in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota decreased to flurries This Afternoon as dry air pushed south from Central Canada and also because of the area of low pressure pulling farther southeast of our area.  Lake effect snow showers and flurries did develop Today as 850mb temperatures dropped to around -12 degrees C, but the airmass was becoming drier and drier This Afternoon near Lake Superior, thus the intensity of the snow showers were waning.  Highs Today were only in the 20s with a brisk northeast wind at 10-20 mph with gusts well over 40 mph closer to Lake Superior. 

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb low was pulling south-east out of Iowa per water vapor satellite imagery with a N-NW upper level flow in place across the Upper Midwest in wake of this storm.

Tonight through Thursday Night:

High pressure will remain to our north during this period, mainly dry conditions are expected for Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin through Tomorrow Night.  Lows Tonight and Thursday Night will be in the single digits below to around 10 above zero with highs Thursday mainly in the 20s.  A few lake effect snow showers and flurries could continue along the South Shore of Lake Superior Tonight, and early This Evening in the Twin Ports...Little if any accumulation is expected though due to the dry air in place.  Note:  Late Afternoon dewpoints ranged from -8 at Ely, MN.  -9 at Crane Lake, MN.  And -13 at Grand Marais, MN.  Incredibly dry air moving into Northern Minnesota Today.

Note:  *WINTER STORM WARNING* remains in effect until 7 PM CDT Tonight for Pine county MN and for Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer, and Price counties Wisconsin.  The heavy snow is done now, but lingering snow showers or flurries are possible with additional accumulations of 1" or less through early This Evening.

Extended Forecast:

Looks like a fairly quiet weather pattern for our area into early next week.  Strong high pressure off to our north will force the storm track well to our south.  No major warm-ups are expected through early next week, in fact the temperatures will be below average into the weekend.  Winds will shift back to the east Friday and possibly into Saturday, temperatures aloft will be cold enough to support lake effect snow, but dry air in place should keep any lake effect snow on the light side with only some flurries possible from time to time.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Occasional flurries early.  Low 2 to 7.  Wind northeast at 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph closer to Lake Superior.  Wind becoming north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph by Midnight.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 23 to 28.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 3 to 8.  Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

.Friday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 7 to 12.

.Saturday...  Variable cloudiness.  High 25 to 30.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 7 to 12.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  37
Low:  19

Sunrise Tomorrow:  7:04 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   7:27 PM CDT

Tim

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

3/22/11: (LATE AFTERNOON UPDATE)***UPDATED WINTER STORM/BLIZZARD INFORMATION***

Issued at 4:59 PM CDT, Tuesday, March 22nd, 2011

Per NWS Duluth, Minnesota:

*BLIZZARD WARNING*

Blizzard warning remains in effect until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for the following counties:  Southern Lake MN...Southern St. Louis MN...Carlton MN...and Douglas WI.  Some cities included in the warning are:  Silver Bay MN...Two Harbors MN...Duluth MN...Cloquet MN...Cromwell MN...Moose Lake MN...Superior WI...South Range WI...Poplar WI...and Solon Springs WI.

Impacts:  Snow, heavy at times Tonight and Wednesday Morning.  Lingering light snow Wednesday Afternoon.  East to northeast winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph Tonight through mid-Afternoon Wednesday.  The strongest winds will be found close to Lake Superior.

*Falling and blowing snow will cause white out and blizzard conditions at times.

*Travel will become extremely difficult or impossible in some areas.

*Snowfall rates could reach 1" or more an hour Tonight.

*Total snowfall accumulations of 5-10" are expected by Wednesday Afternoon in the warning area.

*High winds may result in downed trees and scattered power outages.

A blizzard warning means severe life threatning winter weather conditions are expected.  The combination of strong winds and falling and blowing snow will result in dangerously low visibility and whiteout conditions.  Any travel is strongly discouraged.  If you choose to travel you may be risking your life.  Be aware that you may become stranded and that it could take many hours for help to arrive.  Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle including a flashlight, food, and water.  Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time and have a working cell phone in case you become stranded.  If you become stranded stay with your vehicle and use it as a shelter.  Many deaths occur in blizzards when people leave their vehicles trying to seek help.

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

Winter storm warning remains in effect until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for the following counties:  Itasca MN...Cass MN...Crow Wing MN...Aitkin MN...Pine MN...Central St. Louis MN...Burnett WI...Washburn WI...Sawyer WI...Price WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...and Iron WI.  Some cities included in the warning are:  Bigfork MN...Grand Rapids MN...Cass Lake MN...Walker MN...Pine River MN...Brainerd MN...Hill City MN...Aitkin MN...McGregor MN...Pine City MN...Hinckley MN...Hibbing MN...Danbury WI...Grantsburg WI...Minong WI...Shell Lake WI...Hayward WI...Exeland WI...Winter WI...Park Falls WI...Phillips WI...Ogema WI...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Cable WI...Ashland WI...Butternut WI...Hurley WI...Upson WI...and Gile WI.

Impacts:  Snow, heavy at times Tonight and Wednesday Morning mainly along and southwest and south of Highway 2.  East to northeast winds gusting to 30 mph will result in blowing snow and near white out conditions in some areas.  Expect very difficult driving conditions.

*Total snowfall accumulations by Wednesday Afternoon will range from 2-6" in Itasca and Central St. Louis counties to 10-14" for the rest of the warning area.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Winter weather advisory is now in effect until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for the following counties:  Koochiching MN...Northern St. Louis MN...Northern Lake MN...and Cook MN.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  International Falls MN...Northome MN...Crane Lake MN...Ely MN...Lutsen MN...and Grand Marais MN.

Impacts:  Light snow will occur at times into Wednesday Morning.  Gusty east to northeast winds to 25 mph will cause areas of blowing snow.  Roads could be snow covered and slippery, exercise caution and slow down if you plan to travel.

*Total snowfall accumulations will range from 1-3".

Tim

3/22/11: MORNING UPDATE

Issued at 10:22 AM CDT, Tuesday, March 22nd, 2011

Per NWS Duluth, Minnesota:

*BLIZZARD WARNING*

Blizzard warning remains in effect from 1 PM CDT Today until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for the following counties:  Southern Lake MN...Southern St. Louis MN...Carlton MN...and Douglas WI.  Some cities included in the warning are:  Silver Bay MN...Two Harbors MN...Duluth MN...Cloquet MN...Cromwell MN...Moose Lake MN...Superior WI...South Range WI...Poplar WI...and Solon Springs WI.

Impacts:  Light snow, possibly mixed with some sleet will occur at times Today.  Snow, heavy at times will develop This Evening and will continue into Wednesday.  East to northeast winds at 25 to 35 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph will occur with the strongest winds closer to Lake Superior.  Snowfall rates could reach 1" an hour by Tonight.  White out and blizzard conditions are expected to develop by This Evening with travel becoming extremely difficult or impossible in some areas.

*Total snowfall accumulations of 10-13" are expected in the warning area by late Wednesday Afternoon.

*High winds may result in downed trees and power lines resulting in power outages.

A blizzard warning means severe life threatning winter weather conditions are expected.  The combination of strong winds and falling and blowing snow will result in dangerously low visibility and whiteout conditions.  Any travel is strongly discouraged.  If you choose to travel you may be risking your life.  Be aware that you may become stranded and that it could take many hours for help to arrive.  Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle including a flashlight, food, and water.  Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time and have a working cell phone in case you become stranded.  If you become stranded stay with your vehicle and use it as a shelter.  Many deaths occur in blizzards when people leave their vehicles trying to seek help.

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

Winter storm warning remains in effect until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for the following counties:  Southern Cass MN...Crow Wing MN...Southern Aitkin MN...Pine MN...Burnett WI...Washburn WI...Sawyer WI...Price WI.  Some cities included in the warning are:  Pine River MN...Leader MN...Brainerd MN...Aitkin MN...McGrath MN...Pine City MN...Hinckley MN...Danbury WI...Grantsburg WI...Minong WI...Shell Lake WI...Hayward WI...Exeland WI...Winter WI...Park Falls WI...Phillips WI...and Ogema WI.

Impacts:  A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and possibly some freezing rain will occur Today.  Snow, heavy at times will develop This Evening and will continue into Wednesday.  East to northeast winds gusting to 30 mph combined with falling and blowing snow will result in near white out conditions.

*Travel will become extremely difficult or impossible in some areas.

*Total snowfall accumulations of 10-13" are expected by Wednesday Afternoon with locally higher amounts approaching 16".

*Ice accumulations are expected to remain under 0.10".

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

Winter storm warning remains in effect from 1 PM CDT Today until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for the following counties:  Northern Cass MN...Itasca MN...Northern Aitkin MN...Central St. Louis MN...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...and Iron WI.  Some cities included in the warning are:  Bigfork MN...Grand Rapids MN...Hill City MN...Hibbing MN...Cotton MN...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Cable WI...Ashland WI...Butternut WI...Hurley WI...Upson WI...and Gile WI.

Impacts:  Snow will gradually develop from mid-Afternoon through early This Evening.  Snow, heavy at times are expected Tonight with snow continuing on Wednesday.  East to northeast winds gusting to 30 mph combined with falling and blowing snow will produce near white out conditions at times.

*Travel will become extremely difficult or impossible in some areas by Tonight.

*Total snowfall accumulations will range from 10-13" for the South Shore of Lake Superior to 5-10" from Cass Lake and Walker, to Bigfork, Grand Rapids, and Hibbing.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Winter weather advisory is in effect from 1 PM CDT Today until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for the following counties:  Koochiching MN...Northern St. Louis MN...Northern Lake MN...and Cook MN.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  International Falls MN...Northome MN...Crane Lake MN...Ely MN...Lutsen MN...and Grand Marais MN.

Impacts:  Light snow will develop in far Northern Minnesota by late This Afternoon or This Evening.  Snow will then continue Overnight into Wednesday.  Total snowfall accumulations will range from 1-4".

Roads will become snow covered and slippery by Tonight, slow down if you have travel plans.

Tim

Monday, March 21, 2011

3/21/11: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:03 PM CDT, Monday, March 21st, 2011

Snowfall report for Sunday, March 20th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

4 miles south of Sawyer, MN (Carlton county)  1.5"
Montreal, WI (Iron county)  2.5"
8 miles northeast of Cook, MN (St. Louis county)  1.0"
2 miles southeast of Finland, MN (Lake county)  1.6"
Two Harbors, MN (Lake county)  2.2"
Gile, WI (Iron county)  2.1"
Silver Bay, MN (Lake county)  3.0"

5 miles northwest of Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  2.8" measured at the National Weather Service.

Note:  A few thunderstorms developed from the Brainerd Lakes, east to Moose Lake, north toward the Twin Ports between 4-6 AM Sunday.

Weather Headlines:

*Calm before the storm Tonight
*Storm overspreads the area from south to north on Tuesday
*Peak intensity of the storm is expected to be from late Tuesday Afternoon through Wednesday Morning
*High wind threat with possible power outages especially near Lake Superior

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A couple areas of low pressure of 996-998mb were centered in the Central Rockies late This Afternoon with high pressure >1030mb building into Northwest Ontario Province.  A decent spring day across our area with partly-mostly cloudy skies with high temperatures in the middle 30s to lower 40s.  Winds from the northwest are beginning to shift to the northeast This Afternoon as a cold front settles south through Northern Minnesota.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

West-northwest 500mb flow was found across the Upper Midwest Today per RUC model analysis.  Sunday's weather system has moved into Eastern Canada Today with the next storm heading east through the Western U.S.  120 knot upper level winds were found in the Southern Rockies Today on the southeast side of the upper low passing through Nevada with a seperate area of strong upper level winds >110 knots covering areas from Central Ontario Province to Southwest Quebec Province.

Tonight:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with a few early Evening showers of rain, sleet, or wet snow near Lake Superior.  There might be some flurries or patchy light freezing drizzle continuing through the night near Lake Superior as onshore winds lock in.  The rest of our area should remain dry Tonight.  Lows will be in the 20s to lower 30s, but some teens are possible in far Northern Minnesota.  Winds will shift to the east-northeast at 5-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph developing near Lake Superior.

Tuesday:

Low pressure averaging 995mb heads east through Nebraska with a 1035-1040mb high centered in Southern Hudson Bay/Northern Ontario Province.  Look for a mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain for southern areas on Tuesday with some light snow or sleet spreading north to the Twin Ports and Highway 2 corridor especially during the Afternoon.  Areas from the Iron Range to Arrowhead and to the Ontario border should remain dry Tomorrow.  Highs Tuesday will be in the 20s and lower 30s with east-northeast winds at 15-30 mph, but gusts over 40 mph will develop near Lake Superior.

Tuesday Night:

Low pressure of 995-997mb will move from Western to Eastern Iowa with high pressure averaging 1037mb centered in Northern Ontario Province.  Snow will become heavy at times for areas along and south of the Highway 2 corridor in Minnesota with all of Northwest Wisconsin also seeing snow and heavy snow.  Northern Minnesota through the Arrowhead...Or along and north of a Northome to Cook to Ely to Lutsen line will see snow gradually develop Tuesday Evening with snow continuing through the Overnight hours.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the teens and 20s with east-northeast winds of 15-30 mph with gusts over 40 mph near Lake Superior.

Note:  Travel will become extremely difficult in parts of our area due to falling and blowing snow.  Roads will become snow and ice covered.  Visibility will drop to near zero at times especially by Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Morning.

Snowfall totals from Tuesday through Wednesday:

*8-13" with locally higher amounts approaching 15-18" for Northwest Wisconsin, Twin Ports, and Eastcentral Minnesota.

*6-12" for Northern Minnesota...Note:  There is a chance that snowfall amounts will end up much lower north of the Iron Range through the Arrowhead as the snow may have a tough time getting that far north due to the amount of dry air coming south off that strong area of high pressure in Northern Canada.

Ice accumulations:  Up to 0.10" along and south of a line from Leader to Aitkin to Willow River, Minnesota.  And along and south of a line from Dairyland to Butternut in Northwest Wisconsin.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*BLIZZARD WARNING*
Timing:  1 PM CDT Tuesday until 7 PM CDT Wednesday.

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Becoming breezy.  Patchy drizzle, freezing drizzle, or flurries possible.  Low 27 to 32.  Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph developing late.

.Tuesday...  Very windy.  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or sleet possible.  Snow accumulations 1" or less.  Temperatures holding nearly steady between 27 to 32 degrees.  Wind east to northeast increasing to 25 to 35 mph with gusts approaching 50 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Snow...Very windy.  Snow could be heavy at times.  Blizzard conditions developing.  Thunder possible.  Low 23 to 27.  Wind east to northeast at 25 to 35 mph with gusts approaching 50 mph.

.Wednesday...  Snow...Windy.  Blizzard conditions.  Total snowfall accumulations of 10-13" with locally higher amounts possible.  Temperatures holding nearly steady between 23 to 27 degrees.  Wind east to northeast at 20 to 30 mph with gusts over 40 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Snow showers and flurries.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  36
Low:  19

Sunrise Tomorrow:  7:08 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   7:24 PM CDT

Tim

3/21/11: NEW***BLIZZARD WARNING/WINTER STORM WARNING INFO.

Issued at 4:03 PM CDT, Monday, March 21st, 2011

Per NWS Duluth, Minnesota:

*BLIZZARD WARNING*

Blizzard warning is in effect from 1 PM CDT Tuesday until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for the following counties:  Southern Lake MN...Southern St. Louis MN...Carlton MN...and Douglas WI.  Some cities included in the warning are:  Silver Bay MN...Two Harbors MN...Duluth MN...Cloquet MN...Cromwell MN...Moose Lake MN...Superior WI...South Range WI...Poplar WI...and Solon Springs WI.

Impacts:  Light snow possibly mixed with sleet develops Tuesday Morning.  Heavier snow arrives from south to north between 2-4 PM Tuesday.  Snow, heavy at times Tuesday Night through Wednesday Afternoon.  East to northeast winds will increase to 25 to 35 mph on Tuesday with gusts as high as 50 mph in the Twin Ports, these conditions will continue through Wednesday.  Snowfall rates of 1" an hour will likely develop late Tuesday Afternoon or Tuesday Evening and continue through the Overnight hours.  The combination of falling and blowing snow will result in white out and blizzard conditions.  Travel will become extremely difficult or impossible by Tuesday Night.

*Total snowfall accumulations of 10-13" are expected in the warning area by Wednesday Afternoon with locally higher amounts approaching 18".

*High winds may result in downed trees and power lines resulting in power outages.

A blizzard warning means severe life threatening winter weather conditions are expected.  The combination of strong winds and falling and blowing snow will result in dangerously low visibility and whiteout conditions.  Any travel is strongly discouraged.  If you choose to travel you may be risking your life.  Be aware that you may become stranded and that it could take many hours for help to arrive.  Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle including a flashlight, food, and water.  Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time and have a working cell phone in case you become stranded.  If you become stranded stay with your vehicle and use it as a shelter.  Many deaths occur in blizzards when people leave their vehicles trying to seek help.

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

Winter storm warning is in effect from 7 AM CDT Tuesday until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for the following counties:  Southern Cass MN...Crow Wing MN...Southern Aitkin MN...Pine MN...Burnett WI...Washburn WI...Sawyer WI...and Price WI.  Some cities included in the warning are:  Pine River MN...Leader MN...Brainerd MN...Aitkin MN...McGrath MN...Pine City MN...Hinckley MN...Danbury WI...Grantsburg WI...Minong WI...Shell Lake WI...Hayward WI...Exeland WI...Winter WI...Park Falls WI...Phillips WI...and Ogema WI.

Impacts:  A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is expected to develop Tuesday Morning and continue through the Afternoon hours before the precipitation turns over to snow Tuesday Evening.  Snow will be heavy at times Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning.  East to northeast winds gusting to 30 mph combined with falling and blowing snow will result in near white out conditions.

*Travel will become extremely difficult or impossible by Tuesday Evening.

*Total snowfall accumulations of 8-12" with locally higher amounts approaching 15" are expected by Wednesday Afternoon.

*Total ice accumulations are expected to be around 0.10".

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

Winter storm warning is in effect from 1 PM CDT Tuesday until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for the following counties:  Koochiching MN...Northern and Central St. Louis MN...Northern Lake MN...Cook MN...Itasca MN...Northern Cass MN...Northern Aitkin MN...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...and Iron WI.  Some cities included in the warning are:  International Falls MN...Northome MN...Bigfork MN...Grand Rapids MN...Hibbing MN...Ely MN...Orr MN...Forest Center MN...Lutsen MN...Grand Marais MN...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Cable WI...Ashland WI...Butternut WI...Hurley WI...Upson WI...and Gile WI.

Impacts:  Snow will develop Tuesday Afternoon with snow, heavy at times Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning.  East to northeast winds gusting to 30 mph combined with falling and blowing snow will produce near white out conditions at times by Tuesday Night.

*Travel will become extremely difficult or impossible in some areas by Tuesday Night.

*Total snowfall accumulations will range from 6-12" with locally higher amounts approaching 15" especially along the South Shore of Lake Superior.

Tim 

3/21/11: UPDATE

Issued at 1:45 PM CDT, Monday, March 21st, 2011

*BLIZZARD WATCH* FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

Blizzard watch includes Southern Lake, Southern St. Louis, and Carlton counties in Minnesota and Douglas county Wisconsin.  Some other cities in the watch are:  Two Harbors MN...Cloquet MN...Moose Lake MN...South Range WI...Poplar WI...and Solon Springs WI...

Some snow, sleet, or freezing rain could occur at times on Tuesday with the heaviest snow expected to fall from late Tuesday Afternoon through Wednesday Morning.  Total snowfall accumulations of 6-12" with locally higher amounts are possible in the watch area by late Wednesday Afternoon.  East to northeast winds will increase to 25 mph Tonight, and to 25-35 mph with gusts over 40 mph Tuesday into Wednesday.  Winds could gust as high as 50 mph in the Duluth Waterfront Tuesday Afternoon into Wednesday Morning.

The combination of falling and blowing snow will produce near zero mile visibility at times especially Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Morning.  Travel will become extremely difficult or impossible during that time.

This snow will be wet and will stick to trees and power lines, this combined with the high winds could result in power outages.

Note:  An upgrade to a BLIZZARD WARNING seems imminent based on the latest model data.

The remainder of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin is under a *WINTER STORM WATCH* for Tuesday Morning through Wednesday Evening.  Locations along and north of a line from Northome to Cook to Lutsen may see lighter amounts of snow compared to areas farther south, thus the winter storm watch that is currently in effect for Koochiching, Northern St. Louis, Northern Lake, and Cook counties Minnesota may be dropped to an advisory.

Stay tuned for further updates...

Tim

Sunday, March 20, 2011

3/20/11: WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE INFORMATION

Issued at 4:09 PM CDT, Sunday, March 20th, 2011

All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

*BLIZZARD WATCH*

A blizzard watch has been issued for Tuesday Morning through Wednesday Evening for the following counties:  Southern Lake MN...Southern St. Louis MN...Carlton MN...and Douglas WI.  Some cities included in the watch are:  Two Harbors MN...Duluth MN...Cloquet MN...Moose Lake MN...Superior WI...and Solon Springs WI.

Impacts:  Snow will move into the watch area Tuesday Morning and will continue through Wednesday.  The heaviest snowfall is expected to occur Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Morning.  Some freezing rain or sleet could mix in with the snow on Tuesday, but ice accumulations are not expected to be significant at this time.

East to northeast winds will increase to 25 to 35 mph Tuesday Morning with gusts over 40 mph Tuesday Afternoon through midday Wednesday.  The combination of strong winds and falling snow will cause blizzard conditions around the head of Lake Superior.  Travel will become extremely difficult or impossible by Tuesday Evening.

Total snowfall accumulations of 6-12" with locally greater amounts are possible in the watch area by Wednesday Evening.

This snow will be wet and this combined with 40 mph winds could cause power outages.

A blizzard watch means there is a potential for severe and life threatning winter weather conditions to occur.  People are urged to stay current with the latest weather information regarding this developing storm via local television, radio, the internet or NOAA weather radio.

*WINTER STORM WATCH*

A winter storm watch has been issued for Tuesday Morning through Wednesday Evening for the following counties:  Koochiching MN...Itasca MN...Cass MN...Crow Wing MN...Aitkin MN...Pine MN...Central and Northern St. Louis MN...Northern Lake MN...Cook MN...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Iron WI...Burnett WI...Washburn WI...Sawyer WI...and Price WI.  Some cities included in the watch are:  International Falls MN...Littlefork MN...Bigfork MN...Grand Rapids MN...Cass Lake MN...Walker MN...Leader MN...Brainerd MN...Hill City MN...Aitkin MN...Pine City MN...Hinckley MN...Hibbing MN...Ely MN...Crane Lake MN...Grand Marais MN...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Hurley WI...Grantsburg WI...Shell Lake WI...Hayward WI...and Park Falls WI.

Impacts:  Snow will move into Northcentral-Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tuesday Morning.  Snow will continue into Wednesday.  Some freezing rain or sleet could mix in with the snow on Tuesday with some ice accumulations possible especially along and south of a line from Brainerd to Hayward to Park Falls.

Total snowfall accumulations of 6-12" with locally higher amounts are possible in the watch area by Wednesday Evening.

Roads will become snow covered and slippery with extremely difficult or impossible travel conditions by Tuesday Evening.

A winter storm watch means there is a potential for significant accumulation of snow, sleet, or ice that may impact travel and commerce.

Tim

Saturday, March 19, 2011

3/19/11: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:15 PM CDT, Saturday, March 19th, 2011

Weather Headlines:

-Tonight's Full Moon (The Super Moon) is the biggest in 18 years.
-Rain or mixed precipitation develops Tonight.
-Sunday/Sunday Night will be wet at times.
-Strong winds expected in the Twin Ports Tuesday-Wednesday.
-Winter storm potential Tuesday-Wednesday?
-Official start to Spring will occur at 6:21 PM CDT Sunday.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure of 1034mb was centered over the Eastern Great Lakes late Today with low pressure of 1002mb covering the Northern Rockies.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies were found in our area Today with a few light rain showers or sprinkles affecting areas W-NW of a line from Crane Lake to Brainerd, but with dry air in place (dewpoints in the 20s) much of this precipitation which has been detected on radar was not reaching the ground.  Highs Today were in the 40s, but 30s were common along the North Shore of Lake Superior down through the Twin Ports.  Winds Today were out of the south or east at 10-20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Southwest 500mb flow was developing over the Upper Midwest as a potent upper level trough covers the Western U.S. while another upper level trough heads east through Quebec Province and the Northeast U.S.  One system embedded within the Western U.S. H5 trough was pushing E-NE through the Central Rockies Today per water vapor satellite imagery with the next system spinning offshore of Washington and Oregon, with a seperate upper low located west of California.

Tonight:

Southerly low level jet increasing to 35-45 knots will transport deeper moisture north into our area Tonight as low pressure moves into the Northern Plains.  Showers will become more widespread in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight as skies become mostly cloudy.  With 850mb temperatures holding around zero degrees C, some of the showers could mix with or change over completely to wet snow or sleet.  The best chance for this frozen precipitation would be in Northeastern Minnesota especially in higher terrain areas.  Lows Tonight will be in the 30s with south or east winds at 10-20 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

Low pressure will pass by to our west-north during this period with a secondary low tracking northeast from Iowa.  Both lows will merge to one low pressure center by late Sunday Night.  Areas of rain showers will continue on Sunday with some wet snow or sleet possible as well, mainly in Northeast Minnesota in higher terrain areas.  The bulk of the rain/showers for Sunday Night should be confined to Northwestern Wisconsin with lesser chances for rain in Northern-Eastern Minnesota.  The rain in Northwest Wisconsin should end from west to east during the night.  Mostly cloudy skies are expected during this period with highs Tomorrow in the 30s and 40s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s in Northern Minnesota with 30s elsewhere.  Winds on Sunday will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph with winds turning to the west, southwest, or northwest at 10-25 mph Sunday Night.

Note:  Precipitation totals from Tonight through Sunday Night should generally be in the 0.10"-0.25" range across our local area with some localized higher amounts possible in Northwest Wisconsin.  Snowfall totals of 1-2" are possible in Northeastern Minnesota (generally in higher terrain areas)

Extended Forecast:

Monday and Monday Night look dry at this time as one system exits to our east while a second one heads through the Rockies.  Highs on Monday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Monday Night in the 20s with some teens in Northern Minnesota.

Tuesday and Wednesday, March 22nd-23rd continues to be a period to keep a close eye on as there is a threat for a winter storm for portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  Low pressure in the 995-1000mb range is forecast to move from the Western High Plains, through Iowa, to south of Chicago Illinois during the Tuesday-Wednesday time period.  At the sametime this is happening, there will be a massive 1040mb high pressure system setting up shop over Hudson Bay/Northern Ontario Province (a common occurrence this time of year)  The majority of the forecast models are in agreement on this track mentioned above, but the NAM (12z run) is farther south.

The northern extent of the precipitation shield seems to be in more disagreement with the computer models versus the track of the low.  The GFS and last few runs of the SREF models are the farthest north with the heavier precipitation.  The 12z GEM-GLOBAL has trended north, although it shows a much sharper cut-off to the precip compared to the GFS and this seems a bit more realistic when you have such a strong high off to the north which will advect dry air south into our area.

This storm will be very complex and also a slow mover as the overall 500mb pattern becomes more amplified after Monday of next week.

There likely will be some fluctutations north and south with the precipitation shield in coming days, but as it stands now it appears that the heaviest band of precipitation will fall from from the Dakotas through Western, Central, Eastern, and Southern Minnesota with Northern Minnesota on the edge.  As for precipitation types, it still looks like the bulk of it will fall as snow for our local area, but there is a threat for some freezing rain or sleet Tuesday Afternoon/Evening especially south of a Backus to Twin Ports to Mercer line.

The worst conditions based on latest model projections would be from Tuesday Night through about midday Wednesday.

East to northeast winds will also increase Tuesday and Wednesday due to the pressure difference between the high and low.  It's likely that wind gusts will exceed 30 mph in the Twin Ports area, and gusts well over 40 mph are certainly possible.

The potential does exist for a 6" or greater snowfall from late Tuesday through Wednesday, especially south of a Bemidji to Grand Rapids to Two Harbors line.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Becoming mostly cloudy.  Occasional rain showers developing after Midnight.  Some wet snow or sleet could mix in with the rain at times.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional rain showers.  Patchy fog also possible.  High 37 to 40.  Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Considerable cloudiness.  Rain showers possible, mainly early.  Low 31 to 35.  Wind becoming west at 15 to 20 mph.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 40 to 45.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Tuesday...  Becoming mostly cloudy and turning windy.  Snow or mixed precipitation possible late.  High 30 to 35.  East to northeast winds could occasionally gust over 30 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Windy with snow possible.  Mixed precipitation possible during the Evening.  Low 20 to 25.  East to northeast winds could occasionally gust over 30 mph.

.Wednesday...  Breezy with snow possible.  High 25 to 30.  East to northeast winds could occasionally gust to 30 mph.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  35
Low:  18

Sunrise Tomorrow:  7:12 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   7:21 PM CDT

Tim 

Friday, March 18, 2011

3/18/11: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 8:00 PM CDT, Friday, March 18th, 2011

High temperature report for Thursday, March 17th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

International Falls, MN:  50 degrees
Brainerd, MN:  51 degrees
Ashland, WI:  55 degrees
Hayward, WI:  55 degrees
Silver Bay, MN:  50 degrees
Orr, MN:  52 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  52 degrees
Grand Rapids, MN:  52 degrees
Aitkin, MN:  52 degrees
Hinckley, MN:  52 degrees
Phillips, WI:  57 degrees
Cass Lake, MN:  50 degrees
Kabetogama, MN:  51 degrees
Butternut, WI:  53 degrees
Gurney, WI:  54 degrees
Upson, WI:  54 degrees
Danbury, WI:  53 degrees
Solon Springs, WI:  52 degrees
Winter, WI:  54 degrees

Duluth, MN:  46 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN:  50 degrees
Superior, WI:  52 degrees

Weather Headlines:

-Three storms to keep an eye on thru next weekend.
-First system to arrive Saturday Night and will linger through early Monday.
-Strong E/NE winds becoming more likely for the Twin Ports around the middle of next week.
-Winter storm potential next Tuesday/Wednesday?

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A cooler day compared to Thursday, but temperatures Today were still around to a few degrees above average for mid-March.  Highs were generally in the 30s, but a few lower 40s were found in Northwest Wisconsin while some Northern Minnesota cities stayed in the upper 20s.  Winds Today were out of the north or west under 20 mph.  Skies across our area started out rather cloudy, but skies turned partly to mostly sunny during the Afternoon hours.  Surface map early This Evening featured a stationary front extending from far Northern North Dakota through far Northern Minnesota with a cold front extending from Northeast Minnesota to Northern Lower Michigan.  High pressure of 1032mb was centered in Northern Ontario Province with a 1029mb high centered in Western Minnesota.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb flow has amplified just a bit compared to 24 hours ago with a northwest upper level flow in place over the Upper Midwest along with a brief cool air intrusion as seen by the 850mb temperatures which ranged from -8 degrees C at Duluth, Minnesota to -14 degrees C across parts of Central Ontario Province, warmer air was lurking to our west-southwest with 850mb temperatures of +4 at Bismarck, North Dakota to +10 degrees C at Scottsbluff, Nebraska per RUC model analysis.  The big attention grabber was the large storm system currently affecting the far Western U.S.  A large upper level trough was in place over this area and across the Northeast Pacific late Today with a potent upper level low digging slowly south-east offshore from Washington and Oregon.  Note:  This storm system produced one tornado Today (EF1 rating) at Santa Rosa, California per SPC storm report page.

Tonight:

Clear-partly cloudy skies will occur as high pressure heads through Minnesota.  Lows Tonight will be in the teens and 20s, but a few locations could get into the single digits, especially in Northern Minnesota.  Winds Tonight will be variable under 12 mph.

Saturday:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies can be expected with high temperatures in the 30s and 40s.  High pressure moving off to our east will cause winds to shift to the south-east at 10-20 mph.

Saturday Night:

The threat for rain showers will increase as a 30-50 knot southerly 850mb jet develops which will result in increasing amounts of moisture for the Upper Midwest as low pressure moves into the Western High Plains region.  Lows will mainly be in the 30s, but some 20s are possible in Northern Minnesota...This could result in some sleet or snow mixing in with the rain, although no accumulations of snow or ice are expected at this time.  Winds Tomorrow Night will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will move into the Upper Midwest on Sunday before deepening a bit as it heads off to our east Sunday Night/Monday Morning.  Occasional rain will be found in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Sunday and Sunday Night with totals generally one quarter inch or less.  850mb temperatures clinging close to the zero degree C mark in Northeastern Minnesota could lead to some wet snow or sleet mixing in with the rain Sunday and Sunday Night in far Northeast Minnesota, and there is a possibility for a 1-2" snowfall by Monday Morning, especially in the Arrowhead of Minnesota...Away from Lake Superior.  Highs on Sunday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Sunday Night in the 30s, but a few 20s are possible in Northern Minnesota.  A risk for Morning rain or snow showers on Monday will be replaced with dry conditions Monday Afternoon/Night as the first system departs the area.  Highs on Monday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Monday Night mainly in the 20s.

The second storm to keep an eye on is during the Tuesday-Wednesday, March 22nd-23rd time period.  The set-up will include a massive area of high pressure >1040mb centered to our north while low pressure over the Western High Plains moves off to the east, passing south of Minnesota.  Arctic air and dry air will push south off that high, while moisture heads north from the Plains.  The overall pattern looks quite similar to the winter storm from February 20th-21st with a very sharp cut-off on who gets snow/rain and who gets nothing at all. 

The models are and will continue to struggle with how far north the precipitation will get in coming days.  Right now, the GFS is the farthest north and really cranks out the snowfall for the Twin Ports and surrounding areas...Today's 12z and 18z model runs has 6-12+" of snow accumulating in the aforementioned areas for next Tuesday and Wednesday.  The 12z GEM-GLOBAL run shifted things south compared to it's 00z run and actually keeps most of our area dry with the majority of precipitation falling west-south of our local area.  Nothing is certain as of yet, and probably won't be until early next week.

There is a third storm in the pipeline for next weekend March 26th-28th.  Present indications would indicate a snow event for our area, but this storm is a long ways down the road and many changes will likely take place during the next several days.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Clear to partly cloudy.  Low 17 to 22.  Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 40 to 45.  Wind becoming east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional rain showers developing, especially late.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday...  Occasional light rain.  Mostly cloudy.  High 37 to 40.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Rain possible.  Low 33 to 35.

.Monday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Tuesday...  Becoming mostly cloudy and turning windy.  High 30 to 35.  East to northeast winds could occasionally gust over 30 mph.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  35
Low:  18

Sunrise Tomorrow:  7:14 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   7:20 PM CDT

Tim

Thursday, March 17, 2011

3/17/11: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 8:04 PM CDT, Thursday, March 17th, 2011

*30 day outlook for April 2011 issued by the Climate Prediction Center:

For Duluth, Minnesota:

33% chance for Below Normal Temperatures
40% chance for Above Normal Precipitation

*90 day outlook for April-June, 2011 issued by the Climate Prediction Center:

For Duluth, Minnesota:

40% chance for Below Normal Temperatures
Equal chances for Above Normal, Below Normal, or Normal Precipitation

High temperature report for Wednesday, March 16th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Brainerd, MN:  50 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  46 degrees
Ashland, WI:  53 degrees
Hayward, WI:  50 degrees
Longville, MN:  50 degrees
Hinckley, MN:  50 degrees
Superior, WI:  48 degrees
Phillips, WI:  52 degrees
Cook, MN:  46 degrees
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  47 degrees
Butternut, WI:  50 degrees
Upson, WI:  52 degrees
Danbury, WI:  51 degrees

Weather Tidbits:

*Record warmth Today at St. Louis, Missouri:  83 degrees.  And at Lubbock, Texas:  90 degrees.
*70+ degree temperatures as far north as Southern Lower Michigan Today.
*A round of thunderstorms hit parts of Northern-Northeast Wisconsin and Upper Michigan This Afternoon.  Storms were moving E-NE at 60 mph!

Weather Headlines:

-Above Average Flood Risk this spring for most of the Northland per NOAA's updated outlook.
-Quite a strong cold front moving into Minnesota This Evening.
-A few Northern Minnesota locales could wake up to a light dusting of snow Tomorrow Morning.
-Saturday looks to be the nicer day of the weekend.
-Still lots of question marks for next week.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A band of rain with amounts ranging from 0.10"-0.20" affected portions of Northeast Minnesota Today with lighter amounts <0.05" from the Brainerd Lakes to Twin Ports vicinity.  Note:  0.03" was the official rain total at the NWS Duluth Today.  Mostly cloudy skies covered the area through midday, then skies became mostly sunny late This Afternoon in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  High temperatures Today were on the mild side with 40s and 50s.  Winds were out of the west or southwest at 10-20 mph.  Surface map early This Evening features low pressure of 1002mb along the Ontario-Quebec Province line with a cold front attached to that low extending from Eastern Upper Michigan to Southern Wisconsin.  A secondary cold front was in Northwest Minnesota with quite a drop off in temperatures noted behind this boundary.  It was 19 degrees at Hallock and 21 at Roseau and 25 at Thief River Falls at 7 PM while it was still 45 at Ely and 43 at Duluth. 

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A powerful jet stream >130 knots covered areas from the Central Rockies to the Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis.  Note:  Winds at 30,000 feet were blowing at 140 knots at Duluth, Minnesota (7pm)  A rather potent upper level low was passing by to our north This Evening with a west-southwest 500mb flow occurring in the Upper Midwest to the south of this system.

Tonight:

Cold front will continue to push south/east through our area with low temperatures in the teens and 20s.  Scattered flurries and snow showers will develop late Tonight in Northern Minnesota with a dusting to 1" of accumulation possible by dawn, especially in far Northern Minnesota into the Arrowhead.  Winds Tonight will shift to the west or northwest at 10-20 mph with a few higher gusts possible as a shot of cold air advection shifts south/east into our area during the night, 850mb temperatures will fall to between -2 and -6 degrees C late in the night.

Friday and Friday Night:

A cooler airmass, but still around average for this time of year will be found across our area during this period.  Partly to mostly sunny skies can be expected for Friday with high temperatures running about 10-20 degrees colder than Today which will result in highs generally in the 30s on Friday.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 20s.  Flurries or a few snow showers could linger into Friday Morning in Northern Minnesota, otherwise this period is shaping up to be a dry one.

Extended Forecast:

Southerly wind will kick in this weekend as high pressure slides off to our east while low pressure approaches from the Western High Plains.  Saturday looks nice at this point with high temperatures in the 40s for many areas, lows Saturday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.  Dry weather should continue Saturday and Saturday Night the way it looks now.  Chances for precipitation will increase Sunday into early Monday as that Western High Plains low heads this way.  Most of the precip should fall as rain, but sleet or wet snow could mix in especially near the Ontario border and also in the Arrowhead of Minnesota.  Precipitation amounts look fairly light at this time with totals in the 0.10-0.25" from Sunday into Monday Morning.  Highs on Sunday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Sunday Night in the 30s.

Next Tuesday and Wednesday, March 22nd-23rd is a period to keep an eye on as there is still a potential for a significant snowfall for portions of the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.  The trend with the models Today is for a farther south track to the low (something that has happen over and over again this winter) and that combined with a strong area of high pressure averaging 1035mb setting up shop in Ontario Province may result in little if any precipitation for our local area for Tuesday and Wednesday.  There is still plenty of time to monitor this potential storm, and the models will likely fluctuate on the track and intensity of this system in coming days.

Note:  Tuesday and Wednesday (March 22nd-23rd) look quite windy near Lake Superior due to the pressure difference between the high off to our north and low to our south, could have 30 plus mph E-NE winds in the Twin Ports during that time period.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 23 to 28.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph with a few higher gusts.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 32 to 37.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

.Saturday Night...  Becoming mostly cloudy.  Low 27 to 32.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 37 to 40.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low 33 to 35.

.Monday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  35
Low:  17

Sunrise Tomorrow:  7:16 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   7:18 PM CDT

Tim

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

3/16/11: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 8:24 PM CDT, Wednesday, March 16th, 2011

March 1st-15th, 2011 climate summary for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Average monthly temperature:  20.8 degrees
Departure from average:  -1.3 degrees

Precipitation total:  0.33"
Departure from average:  -0.40"

Snowfall total:  4.0"
Departure from average:  -2.9"

9 days with at least a trace of precipitation
8 days with at least a trace of snow

6 days with a high temperature of at least 32 degrees
1 day with a high temperature of at least 40 degrees

March 1st-15th, 2011 climate summary for International Falls, Minnesota.

Average monthly temperature:  18.3 degrees
Departure from average:  -1.6 degrees

Precipitation total:  0.12"
Departure from average:  -0.31"

Snowfall total:  2.5"
Departure from average:  -2.0"

High temperature report for Tuesday, March 15th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

International Falls, MN:  51 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  46 degrees
Ashland, WI:  49 degrees
Orr, MN:  50 degrees
Longville, MN:  50 degrees
Pine River, MN:  48 degrees
Superior, WI:  45 degrees
Phillips, WI:  48 degrees
Cass Lake, MN:  53 degrees
Littlefork, MN:  51 degrees
Kabetogama, MN:  51 degrees
9 miles north of Bayfield, WI:  47 degrees

Weather History:

*On this date in 2003:  A record high temperature of 60 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
*One year ago on yesterday's date (3/15) the high temperature was 60 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota which was the new record high temperature for the 15th of March.

Note:  One year ago Today the high temperature was 54 degrees and the low temperature was a balmy 40 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Our area sits between a cold front to our north and a warm front in Southwest Minnesota while a cold front pushes east through the Northern Plains.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies covered our area Today with above normal temperatures thanks to southerly winds.  Highs Today were in the 40s and lower 50s, but an onshore wind developed during the Afternoon which resulted in temperatures falling to the 30s from Superior and Downtown Duluth and along the North Shore.  There's been plenty of radar echoes passing through Northern Minnesota Today, but with temperature/dewpoint spreads between 10-20 degrees, little if any precipitation has been reaching the ground. 

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Westerly 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery, meanwhile a strong upper level jet >120 knots stretched from Central California to Eastern Montana which was out ahead of an upper level trough which covered the Pacific Northwest/Western Canada/and the Northeast Pacific.  Note:  Very warm temperatures were found across the Plains Today with 60+ degree temperatures as far north as Des Moines, Iowa and Scottsbluff, Nebraska at 8 PM CDT.  Temperatures at 4 PM CDT Today ranged from 72 at Yankton, South Dakota.  73 at Chamberlain, South Dakota.  71 at Mitchell, South Dakota and 64 at Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

Tonight:

Cold front to our north will settle south, reaching the borderland area by dawn while the cold front currently in the Central Dakotas heads east through the night.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with the possibility for a few light rain showers or sprinkles mainly in Northern Minnesota.  Lows will mainly be in the 30s with south, west, or east winds under 20 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Some light rain or showers are possible in parts of our area on Thursday, but rainfall totals are forecast to remain light~generally in the trace to couple hundreths of an inch range.  This precipitation would form due to a cold front which will be moving through the Upper Midwest, by Thursday Night enough cold air may be present for a few flurries across Northern Minnesota.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s, but a few locales in Northwest Wisconsin could get close to 50.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees.  Winds will be out of the west or north under 20 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Mainly dry conditions are expected for Friday and Saturday (March 18th-19th) High temperatures will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees for Friday and 30s and 40s for Saturday.  Low temperatures Friday Night will be in the teens and 20s with mainly 20s for Saturday Night.  Computer models are showing less and less agreement after Saturday, and this persists through the middle of next week.  Upper level trough will be in place across the Western U.S. with a southwest flow over the Plains, but the eventual track of individual storm systems embedded within the H5 trough are handled differently by the models Today.  The trend during the past 24 hours is for colder air to seep south from Central Canada after next Monday, so this raises the prospects for snow or ice if a storm system can track far enough north into the cold air. 

The GFS and EURO models over the last day or so have been hinting at a winter storm for portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest sometime between Tuesday-Wednesday, March 22nd-23rd.  There could also be a system for Sunday-Monday, March 20th-21st but that one is looking less and less threatening with each new model run.  Note:  It's quite possible that everything sets up farther south with virtually no impact on Northern Minnesota or Northwest Wisconsin's weather for next week, this would occur if the flow in Canada amplifies enough from the N/NW which would shove the storm track further south.  This has been the case more times than not since December for our local area, and one of the reasons why we haven't been affected by a Rockies or Central Plains storm in quite some time.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph becoming south to southwest Overnight.

.Thursday...  Showers possible at times, otherwise considerable cloudiness.  High 40 to 45.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 23 to 28.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 32 to 37.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

.Saturday Night...  Becoming mostly cloudy.  Low 27 to 32.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 35 to 40.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  34
Low:  17

Sunrise Tomorrow:  7:18 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   7:17 PM CDT

Tim