Monday, February 28, 2011

2/28/11: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:30 PM CST, Monday, February 28th, 2011

Weather Tidbits:

*194 severe weather reports (6 tornadoes) across portions of the Central Plains and Ohio Valley on Sunday, February 27th, 2011.  Source:  SPC

*113 severe weather reports (4 tornadoes) so far Today across portions of the Southeast U.S. and Southern Ohio Valley.  Source:  SPC

*Meteorological winter (December-February) is almost over.  An early look at the numbers for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location):  39.8" of snow this winter compared to 56.5" last winter.  68 days with at least a trace of snow this winter compared to 50 days last winter.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure of 1024mb was centered over the Central Plains with low pressure of 1002mb centered in Southwestern Alberta Province late This Afternoon.  Southerly winds along with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies were found in our area Today with temperatures closer to average as we close out the month of February.  Highs Today were generally in the middle 20s to around 30 degrees with wind speeds generally under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A fast zonal flow covered the Upper Midwest Today per RUC model analysis with a corridor of 130-150 knot upper level winds extending from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains.  Arctic airmass which was over the Upper Midwest the last few days has pushed north into Canada with late Afternoon 850mb temperatures ranging from -14 to -24 degrees C in Western-Central Canada to +2 to +6 degrees C in parts of the Dakotas.

Tonight:

High pressure will be centered to our south/east with low pressure to our northwest.  Southwest low level jet will strengthen to greater than 30 knots Tonight as warm advection pours into the area out ahead of the low to our northwest.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with a few flurries possible in Northern Minnesota.  Lows Tonight will mainly be in the teens, but some single digits can't be ruled out.  Winds Tonight will be out of the south or southwest under 20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Low pressure will pass by to our north/northeast during this period with a sharp cold front pushing south through our area on Tuesday.  Strong cold advection and gusty north/northwest winds will follow the passage of the cold front.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 20s and 30s with falling temperatures in Northern Minnesota.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the single digits and teens below zero with some 20s below possible in Northern Minnesota as another brief surge of arctic air with 850mb temperatures lower than -12 degrees C drops south into the Upper Midwest.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies are expected on Tuesday with a few snow showers or flurries possible in far Northern Minnesota.  Partly cloudy skies for Tomorrow Night, could see a few lake effect snow showers or flurries along the South Shore of Lake Superior.

Extended Forecast:

High pressure will be in control of our weather on Wednesday with highs only in the single digits and teens along with dry conditions.  High pressure moves off to our east Wednesday Night and Thursday with a southeasterly wind developing on the back side of that high and out ahead of a low pressure trough which will approach the area from the west.  Light snow associated with a warm advection pattern will occur in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Thursday with snowfall accumulations generally around an inch the way it looks now, the possible exception to this would be along the North Shore of Lake Superior where a couple inches of snow could accumulate on Thursday due to some lake enhancement (E-SE wind)  Low temperatures Wednesday Night will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero with highs on Thursday mainly in the 20s with lows Thursday Night in the teens.

Friday-Sunday (March 4th-6th) look generally dry at this time, but another storm is expected to develop but early indications are for it to remain well to our south/east late this week/weekend.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 13 to 18.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Windy.  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.  Wind west at 15 to 25 mph becoming northwest during the mid to late Afternoon.  Winds could occasionally gust over 30 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Breezy and very cold.  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 below to 10 below.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible during the Evening.  Overnight wind chill values around 25 below.

.Wednesday...  Cold.  Mostly sunny.  High 8 to 13.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low zero to 5 above.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional light snow.  Accumulations around an inch.  High 21 to 26.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 12 to 17.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  28
Low:  10

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:49 AM CST
Sunset Tomorrow:   5:54 PM CST

Tim

Saturday, February 26, 2011

2/26/10: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:09 PM CST, Saturday, February 26th, 2011

Weather Tidbits:
Source:  TWC.  Minnesota Weather Talk Newsletter (Mark Seeley)

*Snow fell in portions of San Francisco, California This Morning for the first time since 1976.

*Miles City, Montana dropped to -31 degrees This Morning.  This was the coldest February temperature reported in 15 years.  Note:  Wind chills were in the 50s below zero This Morning in parts of Montana.

*Record cold Friday Morning, February 25th, 2011:  Seattle, Washington:  21 degrees.  Billings, Montana:  -14 degrees.

*Low temperature of -35 degrees at Cut Bank, Montana on February 25th, 2011 was the coldest on record for so late in the winter.

*The winter storm from last Sunday-Monday, February 20th-21st, 2011 dumped 19.0" of snow in Eden Prairie, and Bloomington, Minnesota with 20.0" reported in Madison, Minnesota.  The only other years in Minnesota's weather history to record a 20" snowfall in February are 1915, 1922, 1936, 1939, 1962, and 2001.  So, the storm from last weekend was one of the heaviest on record for the month of February.

*High temperature of 5 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota on February 25th, 2011 was the coldest maximum temperature since February 9th (6 degrees)

*February 25th-26th, 2011:  Two consecutive days with high temperatures failing to get out of the single digits at Duluth, Minnesota.  Last time this happened was on January 20th-22nd, 2011.

Seasonal snowfall totals (thru February 25th, 2011) in select Minnesota cities:

Kabetogama:  87.0"
Hutchinson:  85.0"
Twin Cities:  Around 75.0"
Montevideo:  70.0"
Fargo/Moorhead:  67.0"

Low temperature report for Saturday, February 26th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

International Falls, MN:  -30 degrees
Brainerd, MN:  -18 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  -26 degrees
Hayward, WI:  -11 degrees
Silver Bay, MN:  -26 degrees
Grand Marais, MN:  -24 degrees
Ely, MN:  -29 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  -31 degrees
Orr, MN:  -33 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  -29 degrees
Longville, MN:  -24 degrees
3 miles east of Wright, MN:  -20 degrees
Littlefork, MN:  -25 degrees
Babbitt, MN:  -34 degrees
Cook, MN:  -28 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  -34 degrees
Floodwood, MN:  -23 degrees
Kabetogama, MN:  -29 degrees
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  -32 degrees
Butternut, WI:  -24 degrees
Upson, WI:  -15 degrees

Duluth, MN:  -15 degrees
Superior, WI:  -8 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN:  -6 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

An extremely cold airmass remains over our area Today.  Low temperatures last night plunged to the teens, 20s, and 30s below zero in our local area which is anywhere from 20 to 30+ degrees below average for late February.  High temperatures Today only made it to the single digits to around 10 above zero which is 20+ degrees below average for this time of year.  Mostly cloudy skies with areas of light snow (very small snowflakes) affected all of Northwest Wisconsin, and areas south of Highway 2 in Minnesota with accumulations generally around 1/2".  Skies north of this area of light snow were mostly sunny Today.  Winds Today were light and variable under 12 mph.  Surface map as of 4 PM featured high pressure of 1014mb centered along the Eastern Minnesota-Western Wisconsin border.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Westerly flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery with a strong upper level jet of 120-150 knots extending from the Southwest U.S. to the Central-Southern Great Lakes per RUC model analysis.  A disturbance pushing through the Upper Midwest in this fast flow aloft helped to trigger the light snow Today.  A powerful 500mb low continued to push S-SE through California Today with H5 temperatures of -34 degrees C and 850mb temperatures of as low as -4 degrees C in parts of California Today.  12 hour 500mb height falls of 90-120 meters were occurring Today in portions of the Southwest U.S. as this storm moves in.

Tonight:

Another night of frigid temperatures is ahead as lows drop to the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with variable winds under 12 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected this period with flurries or a few snow showers possible at times, mainly in Northern Minnesota.  Temperatures will warm-up compared to previous days with highs on Sunday in the 20s with lows Sunday Night in the single digits to lower teens above zero.  Winds will be out of the south or southwest under 15 mph on Sunday with winds turning to the northwest or north under 20 mph Sunday Night.  Strong low pressure is forecast to lift E/NE out of the Southcentral Plains from Sunday through Monday, this storm will have no impact on our local area, but it could produce a significant severe weather outbreak (possible tornadoes) from Eastern Kansas and Eastern Oklahoma, east through the Ohio Valley.

Extended Forecast:

Temperatures will be closer to average for Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 20s and 30s with lows in the teens and lower 20s Monday Night with a shot of cold air moving back in Tuesday Night and Wednesday with lows Tuesday Night in the single digits below to above zero.  Looks mainly dry for Monday and Tuesday, but low pressure passing by to our northwest/north on Tuesday will drag a cold front south into our area, this could result in a few flurries in Northern Minnesota Tuesday Afternoon/Evening.  Next opportunity for a little bit of snow will come late next week (Thursday-Friday time frame) doesn't look like a very big deal at this time, perhaps an inch or two for some portions of our area.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Very cold.  Partly cloudy.  Low 6 below to 11 below.  Wind variable under 10 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  Milder.  High 22 to 27.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind southwest, becoming northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 23 to 28.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 13 to 18.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low zero to 5 below.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 10 to 15.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  28
Low:    9

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:53 AM CST
Sunset Tomorrow:   5:51 PM CST

Tim

Friday, February 25, 2011

2/25/11: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:17 PM CST, Friday, February 25th, 2011

30 day outlook for March 2011.  Issued by the Climate Prediction Center on Thursday, February 24th, 2010.

For Duluth:

*33% chance for Below Normal Temperatures with Equal chances for Above Normal, Below Normal, or Normal precipitation.

90 day outlook for March thru May 2011.  Issued by the Climate Prediction Center on Thursday, February 24th, 2011.

For Duluth:

*33% chance for Below Normal Temperatures with Equal chances for Above Normal, Below Normal, or Normal precipitation.

Weather Tidbits:

*4th consecutive February with below average snowfall in Duluth, Minnesota.  Snowfall total so far this month:  2.9".  Average for the entire month:  11.4".  Little or no snow is expected for the rest of February which will make this the 4th February in a row with below average snowfall.  Listed below are past February snowfall totals dating back to 2006.  Note:  Our last February with above average snowfall came in 2007.

February 2006:  23.4"
February 2007:  19.7"
February 2008:    7.1"
February 2009:    7.1"
February 2010:    8.5"
February 2011:    2.9" (thru the 24th)

Low temperature report for Friday, February 25th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

International Falls, MN:  -23 degrees
Grand Marais, MN:  -11 degrees
Ely, MN:  -15 degrees
Orr, MN:  -20 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  -26 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  -20 degrees
Littlefork, MN:  -18 degrees
Northome, MN:  -16 degrees
Cook, MN:  -16 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  -22 degrees
Kabetogama, MN:  -23 degrees
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  -22 degrees

Duluth, MN:  -5 degrees

Weather History:

On this date in 1990:  A record low temperature of -26 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Arctic high pressure of 1028mb has built into the Northern Plains This Afternoon with plenty of cold air in place in the Upper Midwest.  Temperatures This Afternoon were only in the single digits in Northern Minnesota and the teens in the Northwest Wisconsin.  Note:  Some locations in North Dakota and Montana didn't even get above zero Today.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies covered our area Today with winds out of the northwest or west at 5-15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Westerly 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis with lots of cold air in place with Afternoon 850mb temperatures of -20 to -26 degrees C from the Northern Rockies through the Upper Midwest.  Thursday's storm responsible for producing 253 severe weather reports (12 tornadoes) in portions of Dixie Alley has moved into the Northeast U.S. Today, in it's wake was a fast flow aloft >120 knot jet stream winds which extended from Central California through portions of the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley.  Several disturbances embedded within this westerly flow are pushing east through the Plains while a potent upper level low drops south through Western Oregon and Northern California per water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight through Saturday Night:

High pressure will settle into the Upper Midwest through this period.  There could be a few flurries This Evening followed by an area of flurries or snow showers on Saturday from the Brainerd Lakes area east to Hayward and Park Falls, snow amounts on Saturday will remain under an inch.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies can be expected through Saturday Night with lows Tonight in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero with highs on Saturday in the single digits and teens.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero.  Winds will be out of the west or northwest under 20 mph through Saturday and west or southwest under 15 mph Saturday Night.

Extended Forecast:

A strong area of low pressure in the Central/Southern Plains will lift E/NE from Sunday into Monday, this low will reach the Southern Great Lakes/Lower Michigan area by early next week.  Snow or rain associated with this storm will remain well to our south/east for Sunday and Monday.  There might be a few flurries in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Sunday and Sunday Night, but for the most part it looks mainly dry into the middle of next week.  High temperatures will modify a bit with mainly 20s for Sunday and Monday with lows Sunday Night and Monday Night in the single digits and teens.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 4 below to 9 below.  Wind west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High 7 to 12.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 3 below to 2 above.  Wind west to southwest around 12 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 23 to 28.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures Today

High:  28
Low:    9

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:54 AM CST
Sunset Tomorrow:   5:49 PM CST

Tim

Thursday, February 24, 2011

2/24/11: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:06 PM CST, Thursday, February 24th, 2011

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 1002mb in Northern Arkansas with high pressure of 1040mb in Eastern Alberta Province late This Afternoon has opened up the flood gates for another round of arctic air as northerly winds setup between the low and high.  Temperatures This Afternoon were only in the single digits below to single digits above zero from Northern Minnesota west to North Dakota while 20s and even some lower 30s continued in Northwest Wisconsin.  Partly to mostly sunny skies were found across our area Today with winds out of the northwest under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

An energetic pattern will persist through early next week and beyond...Water vapor satellite imagery shows one strong system lifting quickly toward the E/NE from the Central Plains while the next one churns slowly south through the Pacific Northwest.  The transition season (winter to spring) is upon us with huge temperature extremes Today which ranged from -3 at Minot, North Dakota to 77 at Dallas, Texas with 80s and even some lower 90s showing up This Afternoon in Southern Texas!  A powerful jet stream >130 knots covered the Great Lakes This Afternoon and also over portions of California, Southern Oregon, and Northern Nevada per RUC model analysis.

Tonight through Friday Night:

Strong high pressure will build southeast into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest during this period while a deepening low heads quickly northeast from Arkansas to the Northeast U.S.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies will occur in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with the potential for a few snow flurries at times.  Lows Tonight and Friday Night will be in the single digits below to above zero with teens below zero and perhaps even some 20s below possible in Northern Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the north or west under 20 mph through this period.

Extended Forecast:

Could see some snow flurries at times this weekend into early next week, but no major storms are expected for our local area.  There will be another strong storm that lifts northeast out of the Central Plains Sunday-Monday, but the snow and rain associated with that storm will remain to our south/east.  High temperatures will be in the single digits and teens on Saturday with lows Saturday Night in the single digits below to around 10 above zero.  Highs on Sunday will modify (closer to average) with highs generally in the 20s with lows Sunday Night in the teens.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low zero to 5 below.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  Morning flurries possible.  High 6 to 11.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 3 below to 8 below.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 10 to 15.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 3 below to 2 above.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 23 to 28.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  28
Low:    9

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:56 AM CST
Sunset Tomorrow:   5:48 PM CST

Tim

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

2/23/11: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:00 PM CST, Wednesday, February 23rd, 2011

Local snowfall report for Wednesday, February 23rd, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

3 miles east of Orr, MN (St. Louis county)  2.6"
7 miles southeast of Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca county)  2.2"
Cotton, MN (St. Louis county)  2.1"
15 miles north of Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca county)  2.0"
Nashwauk, MN (Itasca county)  2.0"
Lutsen, MN (Cook county)  1.2"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 1011mb was centered in Northern Minnesota as of 4 PM with a cold front attached to this low extending south through Central Minnesota.  Good lift and steep mid level lapse rates led to some bands of moderate to heavy snow Today across Northcentral-Northeast Minnesota with generally 1-2" with isolated 3" accumulations reported north of Highway 2 in Minnesota.  High temperatures Today were in the 20s to lower 30s with south, southeast, or southwest winds under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Southwest 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest Today with a vigorous disturbance heading E/NE through the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery.  An upper level low/500mb trough covered the Pacific Northwest/Western Canada with another system charging east-southeast out of California.  The storm moving into the Southwest U.S. will lead to a severe weather and possible tornado outbreak on Thursday across Dixie Alley with a winter storm to the northwest-north of the surface low. 

Tonight:

Low pressure will exit our area to the NE with a cold front sweeping east through our area This Evening.  Snow will taper off to flurries from west to east This Evening in Northern-Northeast Minnesota with total accumulations of 1-3".  Scattered snow showers and flurries could occur elsewhere This Evening with accumulations under 1".  Mostly cloudy skies with patchy light freezing drizzle is also possible for Tonight.  Lows will be in the single digits and teens with winds shifting to the north and west at 10-20 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Strong high pressure will be centered to our W/NW while low pressure tracks northeast out of the Southern Plains.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies with highs in the teens and 20s on Thursday with lows Thursday Night in the single digits below to single digits above zero with some teens below possible in Northern Minnesota.  North or northwest winds at 10-20 mph are expected during this period.

Extended Forecast:

An occasional flurry risk from Friday through the weekend, but for the most part our area will generally be dry as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest late this week through the weekend.  Another powerful storm is forecast to lift northeast out of the Southern Plains, toward the Ohio Valley or Eastern Great Lakes from Sunday into Monday but on it's present track this system would have no effect on Northern Minnesota or Northwest Wisconsin's weather.  Highs for Friday and Saturday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Friday Night in the single digits and teens below zero, maybe some 20s below in Northern Minnesota.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero with some teens below possible in Northern Minnesota.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Occasional snow showers and flurries This Evening.  Accumulations 1" or less.  Mostly cloudy with patchy light freezing drizzle also possible This Evening.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph becoming northwest.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low zero to 5 below.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 8 to 13.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 3 below to 8 below.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 10 to 15.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 3 below to 2 above.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  27
Low:    8

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:58 AM CST
Sunset Tomorrow:   5:47 PM CST

Tim

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

2/22/11: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:00 PM CST, Tuesday, February 22nd, 2011

After a snowy start to the 2010-11 winter in the Twin Ports, things have turned around lately.  Represented below are the smonthly snowfall totals and the departure from average.  Note:  These totals are from the Duluth National Weather Service (Over the hill)  Snow totals have been lower closer to Lake Superior, especially during the months of October and November.

October 2010:
7.7"/+6.1"

November 2010:
27.9"/+12.7"

December 2010:
18.1"/+3.2"

January 2011:
18.5"/-1.1"

February 2011 (thru the 22nd)
2.6"/-6.4"

Weather Tidbits:

*11th snowiest winter in the Twin Cities.  74.5" of snow has fallen so far this winter in the Twin Cities.  The record snowiest winter occurred in 1983-84 with 98.6" of snow.  Note:  The average seasonal snowfall is 55.9"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Some sunshine earlier in the day gave way to partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies This Afternoon with near normal high temperatures in the 20s.  Winds Today were out of the south or southeast under 20 mph.  Surface map late This Afternoon featured high pressure of 1024-1028mb extending from Eastern Canada southwest to Central Illinois.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis shows one upper level trough covering Eastern Canada and the Northeast U.S.  An upper level ridge was in place across the Great Lakes while a new 500mb trough edges east from the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies.

Tonight:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area with a few flurries possible in Northern Minnesota.  Lows will generally be in the teens which will be milder than last night when some locales in Northern Minnesota dropped to the single digits and lower teens below zero.  Winds will be out of the south under 20 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

A cold front will move east across the Upper Midwest with low pressure riding northeast along that boundary.  Some light snow and flurries will occur at times during this period with accumulations of 1" or less with up to 2" possible mainly in Northern Minnesota.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s and lower 30s with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits and teens.  Winds will be out of the south, southeast, or southwest on Wednesday at 10-20 mph with west or northwest winds Wednesday Night at 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Thursday through early next week looks generally dry for our area as high pressure heads east from the Northern Rockies.  High temperatures will be mainly in the teens (below average for this time of year) for Thursday and Friday with lows in the single digits below to single digits above zero, but some teens below are possible in the traditional cold spots.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 13 to 18.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional light snow and flurries.  Accumulations of 1" or less.  High 27 to 32.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind becoming west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low zero to 5 above.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 12 to 17.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 3 below to 8 below.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 10 to 15.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  27
Low:    8

Sunrise Tomorrow:  7:00 AM CST
Sunset Tomorrow:   5:45 PM CST

Tim

Monday, February 21, 2011

2/21/11: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:05 PM CST, Monday, February 21st, 2011

...Another major winter storm misses Northern Minnesota...

Here are some snowfall reports from Sunday and Monday.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota. 

Note:  The numbers below may not represent the final totals since additional snow has been falling in some locations This Afternoon.

3 miles North of Pine City, MN (Pine county)  12.0"
4 miles North of Grantsburg, WI (Burnett county)  9.5"
Sarona, WI (Washburn county)  7.6"
Webb Lake, WI (Burnett county)  7.5"
8 miles south of Hayward, WI (Sawyer county)  6.8"
4 miles southwest of Bruno, MN (Pine county)  6.1"
Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing county)  4.0"
Pillager, MN (Cass county)  3.5"
7 miles northwest of Two Harbors, MN (Lake county)  3.5"

Duluth, MN (NWS)  1.9" thru 6 AM Today.

Madison, MN:  19.0"
Eden Prarie, MN:  17.0"
3.5 miles southeast of Maplewood, MN:  16.8"
Bloomington, MN:  15.0"
Minneapolis, MN:  13.0"
St. Peter, MN:  10.0"

High wind report from Sunday, February 20th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Blatnik Bridge (MNDOT site, 100 feet up from water)  67 mph
1/4 mile south of Lift Bridge:  55 mph
Sky Harbor Airport:  54 mph
Park Point (Private Station)  54 mph
Silver Bay (Marine)  49 mph
Superior Bong Airport:  46 mph
Duluth International Airport:  46 mph
Duluth (I35 and Garfield)  46 mph
Cloquet Airport:  46 mph
Ashland WI:  41 mph

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 1007mb has stalled out a bit over Northern Iowa This Afternoon with a secondary low of 1002mb heading E-NE through Southern Ohio.  Arctic high pressure of 1026mb was centered in Northern Ontario Province with a 1020mb ridge extending southwest through the Dakotas.  An area of snow has been very persistent Today from Eastcentral Minnesota through Northwest Wisconsin, this area of snow has tried it's best in lifting north since late last night, but the amount of dry air associated with that Ontario high has for the most part won the battle, as a result there has been a very sharp snowfall gradient which is rather common with this type of setup.  Lake effect flurries and snow showers also continued Today near Lake Superior, but the amount of dry air in place has kept most of these showers on the light side.  Highs Today were in the teens and 20s with east or northeast winds at 10-20 mph with higher gusts over 30 mph near Lake Superior.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb trough and upper level low was moving east through the Upper Midwest Today with a fast southwest flow aloft (120-160 knots) extending from the Southern Plains to the Northeast U.S. per RUC model analysis.

Tonight:

Snow in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will gradually end This Evening from north to south with scattered lake effect flurries/snow showers near Lake Superior also coming to an end later in the night.  Another 1-2" of accumulation is possible This Evening over parts of Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  High pressure will settle into the Upper Midwest Tonight with lows in the single digits and teens.  Winds will be out of the east, northeast, or southeast at 5-15 mph with a few higher gusts This Evening near Lake Superior.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

High pressure will head off to our east with southerly winds developing in our area.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period with highs Tomorrow in the 20s to around 30 degrees with lows Tomorrow Night in the teens and lower 20s.  Winds will be out of the south or southeast at 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

An area of low pressure will lift northeast through our area on Wednesday with some areas of snow possible, accumulations look light with totals generally around an inch.  Flurries could linger Wednesday Night, then the period from Thursday through early next week looks generally dry for Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with a return to below average temperatures as a large area of high pressure builds in from the northwest.  High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Wednesday Night in the teens.  Highs Thursday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Thursday Night in the single digits below to single digits above zero.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Light snow and flurries This Evening, accumulations under 1".  Total storm accumulations around 2" over the hill and less than 1" closer to Lake Superior.  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 8 to 13.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts This Evening.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 24 to 29.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow and flurries.  Accumulations 1" or less.  High 27 to 32.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries.  Low 12 to 17.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low zero to 5 above.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 12 to 17.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  27
Low:    8

Sunrise Tomorrow:  7:01 AM CST
Sunset Tomorrow:   5:44 PM CST

Tim

Sunday, February 20, 2011

2/20/11: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:51 PM CST, Sunday, February 20th, 2011

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 998mb was centered in Southwestern Iowa as of 5 PM with a ridge of arctic high pressure of 1032mb centered to our northwest-north.  The pressure difference between the high to our north and low to our south has resulted in strong east-northeast winds in our area Today, wind speeds of 10-25 mph have been common, but much stronger winds are occurring near Lake Superior with wind gusts anywhere from 35 to 55 mph This Afternoon.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies covered locations from the Iron Range on north while overcast skies were found elsewhere.  Heavy snow associated with the Plains low has remained south of our local area Today due to the dry air feeding south from the arctic high to our north.  Snow has gradually made it's way into Southern parts of our area This Afternoon, generally south of a line from Hinckley to Hayward to Park Falls.  Note:  Snowfall accumulations so far Today in Southern Minnesota...8.0" at New Ulm.  7.0" in North Mankato.  6.0" at Ellendale.  And 3.0" at the Minneapolis International Airport.  High temperatures Today were in the teens and 20s.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A powerful upper level jet >130 knots was clearly visibile on water vapor satellite imagery early This Afternoon.  The upper jet extended from the Southwest U.S. northeast through the Central Plains to the Southern Great Lakes.  An upper level low/500mb trough was churning slowly toward the east through the Northern Plains.

Tonight:

Low pressure will move slowly through Iowa and into Northcentral Illinois by dawn with an upper level low inching slowly east from the Northern Plains.  Light to moderate snow will occur Tonight generally along and south of a line from Leader to Hinckley to Hayward to Park Falls.  Light snow and flurries will occur for locations along and south of the Highway 2 corridor, or to the north of the previously mentioned locations.  There will also be a risk for lake effect snow showers along the South Shore of Lake Superior back through the Twin Ports, northeast to Two Harbors and Silver Bay Tonight, but dry air feeding south from the Ontario high should keep most of the lake effect snow on the light side.  Lows Tonight will be in the single digits to around 10 below zero in far Northern Minnesota with single digits and teens in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota.  Winds Tonight will be out of the north or east at 10-20 mph, but gusts from 30-55 mph will continue near Lake Superior.  Wind chill values late Tonight will fall to 20 to 30 below zero in far Northern Minnesota.  The gusty winds will lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow Tonight in Southern parts of our local area.

Monday and Monday Night:

Surface and upper level low will continue to push slowly toward the E-SE with high pressure remaining to our north/west.  Light snow and flurries will linger on Monday in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota with dry conditions elsewhere.  All of our area should be dry Monday Night.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected this period with highs Tomorrow in the teens and 20s with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits and teens.  Winds will be out of the northeast or east at 10-20 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior through Monday Afternoon.

Total snowfall accumulations for Tonight and Monday:

Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota can expect 1-3" of snow, but there will be heavier totals of 4-8" for southern portions of Pine, Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer, and Price counties.  Localized higher amounts of up to 4" are also possible along the South Shore of Lake Superior and Twin Ports areas due to lake effect snow.

Extended Forecast:

Tuesday through next weekend looks generally dry for our area with colder temperatures returning by the end of the week.  Might see some flurries or snow showers at times from mid to late week, but no big storms and no big accumulations are expected at this time.  Highs for Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows mainly in the teens.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Timing:  Until 12 PM CST Monday.

.Tonight...  Very windy.  East to northeast wind at 25 to 35 mph with gusts as high as 55 mph.  Light snow with a few heavier snow showers possible.  Areas of blowing and drifting snow.  Low 10 to 15.

.Monday...  Windy.  Light snow and flurries.  Total snowfall accumulations of 1-3".  High 20 to 25.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts during the Morning.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 20 to 25.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Wednesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  High 25 to 30.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 12 to 17.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  26
Low:    7

Sunrise Tomorrow:  7:03 AM CST
Sunset Tomorrow:   5:42 PM CST

Tim

2/20/11: UPDATED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE INFORMATION

Issued at 5:31 PM CST, Sunday, February 20th, 2011

All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

Winter Storm Warning is now in effect until 12 PM CST Monday for the following counties.  In Minnesota:  Pine.  In Wisconsin:  Burnett...Washburn...Sawyer...and Price.  Some cities included in the warning:  Hinckley MN...Pine City MN...Danbury WI...Grantsburg WI...Minong WI...Spooner WI...Shell Lake WI...Hayward WI...Loretta WI...Park Falls WI...Phillips WI...and Ogema WI.

Impacts:  Snow and gusty northeast winds will continue in the warning area Tonight and Monday Morning, the snow will taper off Monday Afternoon.  The heaviest snowfall is expected to occur in the southern parts of each county.  Total snowfall accumulations will vary between 1-3" to as much as 4-8" with the higher totals found in the southern portions of each county.  The combination of falling and blowing snow will drop visibilities to as low as one quarter mile at times.  Roads will be snow covered and slippery with hazardous driving conditions.

A winter storm warning for heavy snow and blowing snow means the combination of strong winds and falling and blowing snow will cause dangerously low visibility and drifting snow.  Snow and ice covered roads and dangerous travel conditions can be expected.  Delay travel if possible.  If you must travel use extreme caution and allow extra time to reach your destination.  Be aware that you may become stranded and that it could take many hours for help to arrive.  Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle including a flashlight, food, and water.  Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time and have a working cell phone in case you become stranded.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect until 12 PM CST Monday for the following counties.  In Minnesota:  Southern Cass...Crow Wing...Southern Aitkin...Carlton...Southern St. Louis...and Southern Lake.  In Wisconsin:  Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...and Iron.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  Pine River MN...Leader MN...Brainerd MN...Aitkin MN...McGrath MN...Moose Lake MN...Wright MN...Cloquet MN...Duluth MN...Two Harbors MN...Silver Bay MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Iron River WI...Ashland WI...Butternut WI...Upson WI...Montreal WI...Hurley WI...and Gile WI.

Impacts:  Light snow will continue at times through Monday in the advisory area.  In addition to the snow, northeast winds will remain gusty especially near Lake Superior where wind gusts from 35 to 55 mph will continue Tonight.  The combination of falling snow and blowing snow will reduce visibilities to one quarter mile at times.  Total snowfall accumulations will generally range from 1-3" in the advisory area, but a few spots could pick up as much as 4-5".  Roads will become snow covered and slippery with hazardous driving conditions.

A winter weather advisory for snow and blowing snow means that visibilities will be limited due to a combination of falling and blowing snow.  Use caution when traveling especially in open areas that are more exposed to the wind.  Roads may be slick and hazardous.  Allow extra time to reach your destination.

*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*

Wind Chill Advisory is in effect from 12 AM CST Tonight until 10 AM CST Monday for the following counties.  In Minnesota:  Koochiching...Northern St. Louis...Northern Lake...and Northern Cook.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  International Falls MN...Northome MN...Crane Lake MN...Ely MN...

Impacts:  Wind chill values of 20 below to 30 below zero late Tonight through Monday Morning.  Frost bite on exposed flesh will be around 20 minutes.

A wind chill advisory means a combination of bitterly cold arctic air and brisk winds will create dangerously cold wind chill values.  If you must venture outdoors make sure to cover all exposed flesh as any exposed flesh can freeze in 15 to 25 minutes with wind chill values from 25 below to 40 below.  This may result in frost bite and hypothermia if precautions are not taken.

Tim

Saturday, February 19, 2011

2/19/11: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:35 PM CST, Saturday, February 19th, 2011

Low temperature report for Saturday, February 19th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

International Falls, MN:  -19 degrees
Cass Lake, MN:  -15 degrees
Littlefork, MN:  -12 degrees
Babbitt, MN:  -13 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  -15 degrees
Kabetogama, MN:  -14 degrees
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  -13 degrees

Weather Headlines:

*MAJOR WINTER STORM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST

*Blizzard or near blizzard conditions are possible for some areas Sunday and Sunday Night

*Snow totals could exceed 1' for some parts of the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Clouds increased and there's been some light snow and flurries at times in Northern Minnesota with dry conditions elsewhere.  Highs Today were in the teens with milder 20s and even a few 30 degree temperatures This Afternoon from Siren to Hayward to Park Falls, Wisconsin.  Winds Today were out of the north or east under 15 mph.  Surface map as of 4 PM featured a couple areas of low pressure averaging 1000mb over the Central Rockies with an arctic ridge of high pressure averaging 1036mb centered in Western and Central Canada.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Deep upper level trough which was over our area on Friday has moved into Eastern Canada and the Northeast U.S. Today per water vapor satellite imagery with a westerly 500mb flow in it's wake over the Upper Midwest.  The next potent 500mb trough was pushing east through the Western U.S. Today with plenty of lightning strikes showing up over the Four Corners region This Afternoon.  A tremendous baroclinic zone was in place Today with temperatures ranging from the 80s and 90s in Mexico and Southern Texas to the single digits from the Northern Rockies through North Dakota to far Northwestern Minnesota.  Looking closer at the Plains and Upper Midwest, late Afternoon temperatures ranged from 5 at Hallock, Minnesota to 34 at Fairmont, Minnesota to 52 at Omaha, Nebraska to 70 at Garden City, Kansas.

Tonight:

Areas of light snow and flurries will continue in parts of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, could see up to an inch of snow Tonight, mainly north of a line from Grand Rapids to Silver Bay.  Mostly cloudy skies with lows in the single digits and teens can be expected Tonight with winds out of the east or northeast at 5-15 mph. 

Sunday and Sunday Night:

Low pressure will deepen as it heads out of the Central Rockies, the low by Sunday Morning should be heading through Southern Nebraska or Northern Kansas with pressures of around 997mb, the low is then forecast to move into Southern Iowa Sunday Evening with pressures of around 992mb.  The pressure difference between this low and a ridge of arctic high pressure >1034mb to our north will cause an increase in northeasterly winds throughout our area.  Wind speeds of 10-20 mph will develop, but gusts of 20-35 mph will develop, especially near Lake Superior.

Snow associated with the Plains low will spread into Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Sunday Morning with snow continuning in these areas through Sunday Night.  Some of the snow could become heavy at times Sunday Afternoon into Sunday Evening, especially south of a Brainerd to Willow River to Park Falls line.  Some snow will also occur farther north, including the South Shore, Twin Ports, Grand Rapids, and Walker/Cass Lake areas.  Flurries or light snow are possible from the Iron Range, north to the Ontario Border and to the Arrowhead of Minnesota Sunday and Sunday Evening.

Travel conditions will worsen on Sunday and will be quite difficult Sunday Night across Northwestern Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota due to falling snow and blowing/drifting snow.

High temperatures Tomorrow will range from the single digits and teens in Northern Minnesota to the 20s in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota.  Lows Tomorrow Night will range from the single digits below zero in Northern Minnesota to the teens in Northwest Wisconsin.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will exit to our south/east on Monday with arctic high pressure building into the Upper Midwest from Monday through Tuesday.  Some additional snow will likely fall on Monday in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, but snow should taper off from northwest to southeast by the Afternoon hours.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecast Monday through Tuesday with highs in the teens and 20s on Monday and mainly 20s for Tuesday.  Lows will be in the single digits below to around 10 above zero Monday Night with single digits and teens on tap for Tuesday Night.

Forecasted snowfall totals from Sunday through Monday Morning:

*6-10" for Pine county Minnesota and for Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer, and Price counties Wisconsin.

*3-6" for Southern Cass, Crow Wing, Southern Aitkin, Carlton, Southern St. Louis counties Minnesota and for Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron counties Wisconsin.

Note:  There continues to be some waffling with the models in regards to how far north the surface low will track which will influence where the heavier snow sets up.  The 00z and 12z GEM-GLOBAL model from last night and Today, and 12z UK model from Today are farthest north with the track of the low and this is important because it would bring at least some system snow north to the Twin Ports, that combined with favorable E/NE winds coming off Lake Superior from Sunday through Monday Morning combined with cooling temperatures aloft would increase the risk for heavier lake enhanced/lake effect snow for the South Shore and Twin Ports areas.  This combined with wind gusts possibly exceeding 30 mph would result in some tracherous travel conditions for the Southwestern/Southern Shores of Lake Superior.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Timing:  6 AM CST Sunday until 6 AM CST Monday.

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Becoming windy.  Snow developing during the Morning with snow in the Afternoon.  High 20 to 25.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph during the Afternoon.

.Sunday Night...  Windy with snow along with areas of blowing and drifting snow.  Low 7 to 12.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

.Monday...  Occasional snow showers and flurries.  Total snowfall accumulations from Sunday through Monday of 2-4" with locally higher amounts possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 15 to 20.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low zero to 5 above.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 20 to 25.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Wednesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow:

High:  26
Low:    7

Sunrise Tomorrow:  7:05 AM CST
Sunset Tomorrow:   5:41 PM CST

Tim

2/19/11: WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE INFORMATION

Issued at 4:14 PM CST, Saturday, February 19th, 2011

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

The National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota has issued a winter storm warning for portions of Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from 6 AM CST Sunday until 6 AM CST Monday.  Counties included in the warning are:  In Minnesota...Pine.  In Wisconsin:  Burnett...Washburn...Sawyer...and Price.  Some cities included in the warning are:  Hinckley MN...Pine City MN...Danbury WI...Grantsburg WI...Minong WI...Spooner WI...Shell Lake WI...Hayward WI...Loretta WI...Park Falls WI...Phillips WI...and Ogema WI.

Impacts:  Although some light snow or flurries could fall at times Tonight, little or no accumulation is expected.  Snow, heavy at times will develop in the warning area Sunday Morning and will continue through Sunday Night before tapering to light snow during the day Monday.  Total snowfall accumulations of 6-10" are possible by Monday in the warning area.  Northeast winds increasing to 15-25 mph Sunday and Sunday Night will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow and when combined with falling snow will lower visibilities to around one quarter mile at times.  Roads will become snow covered and slippery with hazardous driving conditions.

A winter storm warning for heavy snow and blowing snow means the combination of strong winds and falling and blowing snow will cause dangerously low visibility and drifting snow.  Snow and ice covered roads and dangerous travel conditions can be expected.  Delay travel if possible.  If you must travel use extreme caution and allow extra time to reach your destination.  Be aware that you may become stranded and that it could take many hours for help to arrive.  Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle including a flashlight, food, and water.  Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time and have a working cell phone in case you become stranded.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

The National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota has issued a winter weather advisory for parts of Eastcentral and Northeast Minnesota and portions of Northwest Wisconsin from 6 AM CST Sunday until 6 AM CST Monday.  Counties included in the advisory are:  In Minnesota...Southern Cass...Crow Wing...Southern Aitkin...Carlton...and Southern St. Louis.  In Wisconsin...Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...and Iron.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  Pine River MN...Leader MN...Brainerd MN...Aitkin MN...McGrath MN...Moose Lake MN...Wright MN...Cloquet MN...Duluth MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Iron River WI...Solon Springs WI...Ashland WI...Butternut WI...Upson WI...Montreal WI...Hurley WI...and Gile WI.

Impacts:  Areas of light snow or flurries will be possible at times Tonight but little if any accumulation is expected.  Snow will develop in the advisory area Sunday Morning and will continue through Sunday Night before tapering to flurries during the day Monday.  Total snowfall accumulations of 3-6" are possible by Monday with a slight possibility for higher amounts along the South Shore of Lake Superior, west to the Twin Ports.  Northeast winds are expected to increase to 15 to 25 mph Sunday and Sunday Night with higher gusts near Lake Superior, this will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.  Visibilities will drop to a quarter mile or less at times due to falling and blowing snow.  Roads will become snow covered and slippery with hazardous driving conditions.

A winter weather advisory for snow and blowing snow means that visibilities will be limited due to a combination of falling and blowing snow.  Use caution when traveling especially in open areas that are more exposed to the wind.  Roads may be slick and hazardous.  Allow extra time to reach your destination.

Tim

Friday, February 18, 2011

2/18/11: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:57 PM CST, Friday, February 18th, 2011

Hurricane and Tropical Force winds over Lake Superior Today.  Source:  NWS Marquette, MI.

Stannard Rock:  81 mph at 9:30 AM CST
Passage Island:  67 mph at 7:00 AM CST
Rock Of Ages:  62 mph at 1:00 AM CST

Strong wind report for Friday, February 18th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth, MN (Airport)  53 mph
Duluth Sky Harbor Airport:  52 mph
Superior, WI:  46 mph
Eveleth, MN:  47 mph
Ashland, WI:  46 mph
Two Harbors, MN:  45 mph
Brainerd, MN:  45 mph
Grand Rapids, MN:  44 mph
Bigfork, MN:  43 mph
Ely, MN:  43 mph
Grand Marais, MN:  40 mph
International Falls, MN:  37 mph
Hayward, WI:  31 mph

Local storm report.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

3:20 AM CST, 2/18/11:  Esko, MN (Carlton county)  Non-Thunderstorm Wind Damage.  Large pine tree down across Thompson Road.

Power outage in the Duluth Congdon Park Neighborhood...261 Minnesota Power customers were affected by a power outage which was reported at 5:48 AM CST Today.  The cause of the outage was a tree which went down on a power line.  All customers that were impacted had their power restored by 8:30 AM Today.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Deep low pressure of 982mb was centered over Eastern Hudson Bay Canada late This Afternoon with strong high pressure of 1036mb over Saskatchewan Province with a ridge extending southeast through the Northern Plains to Iowa.  The pressure difference between the low to our northeast and high to our west resulted in very strong winds and intense cold air advection to occur throughout our area last night and Today.  West-northwest winds increased to 20-30 mph last night with gusts of 30-55 mph, these winds continued into Today.  Temperatures This Afternoon were only in the upper single digits and teens with milder 20s confined to Northwest Wisconsin. 

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A vigorous upper level low with 150-240 meter 12 hour H5 height falls continued to push east into Quebec Province late Today per RUC model analysis.  A powerful mid level jet of 100-120 knots extended from Western Wisconsin to Western New York while an upper level jet of 120-160 knots stretched from the Central Rockies to the Upper Midwest through the Ohio Valley per RUC model analysis.  A very deep 500mb trough covered the Eastern Pacific and Western U.S. Today per water vapor satellite imagery with a southwest flow in place across the Rockies out ahead of this H5 trough.  Still seeing a tight temperature gradient Today, although much colder air has pushed farther south compared to 24 hours ago.  850mb temperatures as of 4 PM CST ranged from -18 degrees at International Falls, Minnesota to -2 degrees C at Sioux Falls, South Dakota to +4 degrees C at North Platte, Nebraska.

Tonight:

*Wind Advisory* remains in effect until 9 PM CST This Evening for Southern Cook...Southern Lake...Southern St. Louis...and Carlton counties Minnesota.  And for Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...and Iron counties Wisconsin.

West-northwest winds of 15-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph will persist through mid-Evening before winds subside by late Evening through the Overnight hours, the strongest winds will continue to be found near Lake Superior.  High pressure will be in control of our weather Tonight with clear-partly cloudy skies.  Lows will drop into the single digits below to single digits above zero with some teens below in Northern Minnesota.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

Strong high pressure of 1032-1036mb will be centered to our north-northwest during this period while low pressure heads through the Central Rockies, then into the Western High Plains by Overnight Saturday.  Areas of light snow or flurries could develop at times in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night, but accumulations should be light, generally under an inch.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Saturday and Saturday Night with highs in the teens and 20s with lows in the single digits and teens, but some sub-zero readings are possible in Northern Minnesota.  Winds will shift to the east-northeast at 10-20 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

A significant winter storm is expected to hit Central and Southern Minnesota as well as Western and Central Wisconsin from late Saturday Night through early Monday with snowfall accumulations of 6-12" with localized higher amounts possible.  The trend with Today's model runs is for the surface low to track farther south.  It now appears that the low will move E/NE through Northern Kansas-Southern Nebraska Sunday Morning, passing south of Des Moines, Iowa Sunday Afternoon before reaching the Chicago area by late Sunday Night.  Note:  This storm has some similarities to the December 2010 blizzard, in fact the track of this current storm is almost identical to the early December storm, also a strong arctic high will be in place to our north-northwest which is also similar to the early December blizzard.  There will likely be a sharp gradient in the snowfall late this weekend, but the forecast models are flipping around a bit on where this gradient will setup.

It appears that Northern Minnesota through the Arrowhead will see little if any snow from this storm, with locations from Cass Lake and Walker down along the Highway 2 corridor including the Twin Ports seeing perhaps 1-2" of snow.  Heavier snowfall could spread into the Pine City, Hayward Lakes, and Brainerd Lakes areas with accumulations of up to 6" possible.  There continues to be uncertainty on the exact track of this storm, it's very possible that it may end up tracking slightly more to the south, and if it does this would keep the bulk of the snow south of our local area.

Note:  East-northeast winds will increase Sunday and Sunday Night with sustained winds of 10-25 mph, but gusts could exceed 30 mph closer to Lake Superior.  There is a lot of open water over Lake Superior and the projected wind direction and temperatures are favorable for lake effect snow to develop, the negative to all this is the fact that the arctic high to our north could bring dry air south out over Lake Superior which would virtually shut off or end any lake effect snow that develops.

If lake effect snow becomes more of an issue, or heavier system snow spreads into the Twin Ports on Sunday, then some adverse winter weather conditions would be likely due to a strong E-NE wind and falling snow which would result in very poor visibility due to falling and blowing snow.

High temperatures for Sunday and Monday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Sunday Night and Monday Night in the single digits below to single digits above zero.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*WIND ADVISORY*
Timing:  Until 9 PM CST Tonight.

*WINTER STORM WATCH*
Timing:  Late Saturday Night through Sunday Evening.

.Tonight...  Windy This Evening.  Much colder.  Mostly clear.  Low 1 below to 6 below.  Wind northwest at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.  Winds decreasing to 10 to 20 mph late.  Wind chill values of 10 below to 20 below.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 17 to 22.  Wind becoming north to northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible.  Accumulations under 1".  Low 10 to 15.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy with light snow and flurries.  Accumulations around 1".  High 20 to 25.  East to northeast wind could occasionally gust to 30 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy with flurries.  Low 7 to 12.  Northeast winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High 15 to 20.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low zero to 5 above.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow:

High:  26
Low:    7

Sunrise Tomorrow:  7:07 AM CST
Sunset Tomorrow:   5:39 PM CST

Tim

2/18/11: WINTER STORM WATCH INFORMATION

Issued at 4:41 PM CST, Friday, February 18th, 2011

*WINTER STORM WATCH*

The National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota has issued a winter storm watch for portions of Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  This watch is valid from late Saturday Night through Sunday Evening.  The following counties are included in this watch:  In Minnesota...Southern Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...and Pine.  In Wisconsin:  Burnett...Washburn...Sawyer...and Price.  Some cities included in the watch are:  Pine River MN...Brainerd MN...Aitkin MN...McGrath MN...Pine City MN...Hinckely MN...Danbury WI...Grantsburg WI...Minong WI...Spooner WI...Hayward WI...Park Falls WI...and Ogema WI.

Impacts:  Snow will develop in the watch area Saturday Night and will continue through Sunday Night.  The greatest snowfall rates are expected Sunday and Sunday Evening.  Total snowfall accumulations around 6" are possible by Sunday Night.  Visibility will drop as low as one quarter mile at times due to falling and blowing snow.

A winter storm watch means there is the potential for significant accumulation of snow that may impact travel and commerce.  You are encouraged to stay current with the latest weather information regarding this developing winter storm via local television, radio, the internet, or NOAA weather radio.

*WINTER STORM WATCH*

The National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota has issued a winter storm watch for parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  This watch is in effect from late Saturday Night through Sunday Evening.  The following counties are included in this watch:  In Minnesota...Carlton and Southern St. Louis.  In Wisconsin...Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...and Iron.  Some cities included in the watch:  Duluth MN...Cloquet MN...Moose Lake MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Cable WI...Ashland WI...Butternut WI...Upson WI...Gile WI...Montreal WI...and Hurley WI.

Impacts:  Light snow will move into the watch area Saturday Night and will continue through Sunday Evening.  There is uncertainty on how far north the heavier snow will get, thus this is a low confidence winter storm watch.  East-northeast wind coming off Lake Superior could also cause heavier lake effect snow showers along the South Shore of Lake Superior back through the Twin Ports Sunday and Sunday Night, this potential is low, however, due to a strong area of high pressure which will be centered to our north which may feed enough dry air south out over Lake Superior to prevent any lake effect snow from occurring.  If lake effect snow becomes more of an issue, or the heavier snow from the Plains low pushes farther north, then the combination of falling snow and increasing winds on Sunday would cause significant amounts of blowing and drifting snow with visibility as low as one quarter mile.  There is a potential for several inches of snow in the watch area by Sunday Night.

Tim

Thursday, February 17, 2011

2/17/11: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 2:49 PM CST, Thursday, February 17th, 2011

Additional information from Wednesday's record warm day in the Northland.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

*February 16th, 2011 marked just the 31st time in 3,857 February days of weather records or just under 1% of February days with a high temperature of at least 50 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

*The period from February 13th-16th, 2011 is now the warmest on record at Duluth, Minnesota.  The average temperature during that period was 35.0 degrees which broke the previous record of 32.8 degrees set in 1983.

*High temperature at Hibbing, Minnesota was 60 degrees on February 16th, 2011.  This breaks the previous record for the date of 48 degrees set in 1981.  The 60 degree high temperature on the 16th also makes it the warmest February day ever recorded since weather records began (1963)  The previous warmest temperature ever recorded during the month of February at Hibbing was 57 degrees which occurred on the 24th back in 1976.

High temperature report for Wednesday, February 16th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.
Note:  *means a record high temperature was set.

Hibbing, MN:  *60 degrees
Ashland, WI:  57 degrees
Hayward, WI:  53 degrees
Silver Bay, MN:  55 degrees
Ely, MN:  59 degrees
Orr, MN:  57 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  57 degrees
Cloquet, MN:  54 degrees
Phillips, WI:  52 degrees
Cass Lake, MN:  57 degrees
Littlefork, MN:  54 degrees
Babbitt, MN:  59 degrees
Kabetogama, MN:  57 degrees
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  59 degrees
Finland, MN:  62 degrees
Gurney, WI:  62 degrees
Saxon, WI:  57 degrees
Upson, WI:  60 degrees
Danbury, WI:  55 degrees

Duluth, MN:  *52 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN:  52 degrees
Superior, WI:  54 degrees

February, 2011 climate information.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.  Data thru the 15th.

Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Average monthly temperature:  13.7 degrees
Departure from average:  +1.1 degrees

Total precipitation:  0.17"
Departure from normal:  -0.26"

Total snowfall:  0.5"
Departure from normal:  Around 6.0" below normal

Note:  February 4th, 2011 was the last time with at least 0.10" of precipitation at Duluth, Minnesota.

International Falls, Minnesota

Average monthly temperature:  9.7 degrees
Departure from average:  +1.4 degrees

Total precipitation:  0.16"
Departure from average:  -0.19"

Total snowfall:  2.3"
Departure from normal:  Nearly 4.0" below normal

Weather Headlines:

*Damaging winds across Lake Superior late Tonight-Friday
*Windy/colder air set to invade the area Tonight and Friday
*Major model swings/differences for late this weekend
*Winter storm late this weekend?

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Strong low pressure (989mb) was located in far Southeastern Manitoba Province, or north of Roseau, Minnesota as of 2 PM.  Our local area was in the warm sector of this storm Today with plenty of low level moisture in place due to recent snow melt and also because of a southerly flow which is pulling some gulf moisture up this way.  Afternoon dewpoints were in the 30s and lower 40s in our area with 50+ degree dewpoints as far north as Northern Iowa and Northern Illinois.  Latest meso-analysis (2pm) shows an area of elevated CAPE of 500-1000 j/kg which is pushing E/NE through Eastern Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin This Afternoon.  Mid Level Lapse rates are also very steep This Afternoon with values of 8.0-8.5 c/km.  There was an area of thunderstorms earlier This Afternoon which swept through Eastern Ontario Province, well northeast of us, but it shows that there is some instability to support a few thunderstorms Today.  Highs Today were in the middle 30s to middle 40s, but teens were already showing up This Afternoon in Northwestern Minnesota.  Winds Today were out of the south, southeast, or southwest at 5-15 mph with some higher gusts.  Skies for the most part were overcast Today with areas of drizzle and fog, some of the fog has been dense.  A dry slot is moving E/NE out of Western Minnesota This Afternoon, however, which is resulting in some partial clearing in that area.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Southwest 500mb flow was in place over the Upper Midwest with a vigorous storm lifting E/NE through the Northern Plains and Manitoba Lakes region per water vapor satellite imagery.  The real deep moisture is unattached from the main low per water vapor satellite imagery which shows a plume of richer moisture stretching from Texas to the Southern Great Lakes.  A very strong temperature gradient continued Today per RUC model analysis with late day 850mb temperatures ranging from -6 degrees C in extreme Northwest Minnesota to +6 degrees C at Bemidji, Minnesota to +14 degrees C at Des Moines, Iowa.

Tonight:

Deep low pressure of 986-988mb will pass north of Minnesota Tonight with a potent vort max swinging E/NE out of the Dakotas which will be accompanied by an 80-100 knot mid level jet and a 130-150 knot upper level jet.  Strong cold air advection will rush SE through our area during the night with 850mb temperatures of +2 to +10 degrees C early This Evening falling to between -4 and -14 degrees C Overnight.  The bottom line for Tonight is this...Wind will become a big issue during the night along with falling temperatures.  Lows will be in the single digits, teens, and lower 20s with southwest winds turning west/northwest.  850mb wind speeds will increase to 40-60 knots Tonight and this will result in widespread 20-30 mph wind speeds at the surface with gusts to 40 mph possible.  Mostly cloudy skies will be found in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with areas of fog and light drizzle which will turning to flurries, light freezing drizzle, and snow showers from northwest to southeast late in the night.  Snowfall accumulations of around an inch are possible late Tonight north of a Bigfork to Grand Marais, Minnesota line.

Note:  Gale and Storm Warnings are in effect for the open waters of Lake Superior.  W/NW wind will peak in the 40-60 knot range early Friday Morning thru midday Friday with wave heights as high as 21 feet with 30 foot waves possible during the height of the storm.

Friday and Friday Night:

Deep low pressure of 982-984mb will track northeast reaching Southern Hudson Bay Canada on Friday.  Strong northwesterly winds of 15-30 mph with gusts of 35-45 mph will continue Tomorrow with much colder temperatures found in our area especially when compared to how warm it has been lately.  Highs Tomorrow will be set late Tonight when 20s and 30s will be common, temperatures will then tumble to the teens and 20s on Friday with lows Friday Night in the single digits below to around 10 above zero.  Winds Friday Night will diminish to 10-20 mph with northwesterly winds expected.  Partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tomorrow with scattered flurries and snow showers.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies are on tap for Friday Night.

Extended Forecast:

Saturday looks mainly dry at this time with strong high pressure off to our northwest.  Highs will be in the teens and 20s.  The period from Saturday Night through early Monday has to be watched very carefully as the 12z model run from Today (GFS, NAM, and Gem-Global) have trended farther north and bring a winter storm to portions of our area, in fact the 12z GFS would result in borderline blizzard conditions for a time in the Twin Ports due to it's projected 850mb wind forecast (ENE >40 knots) late Sunday Afternoon.

Confidence on this farther north solution is low, since it's only one model run to show this trend, the 06z run from early This Morning kept the bulk of the snow to our south, but the next run 6 hours later made a sudden jump to the north with the GFS, NAM, and GEM-GLOBAL models now cranking out between 5-12+" of snow for Central-Eastern Minnesota, including the Twin Ports, and most of Northern Wisconsin.  If this storm stays on this northerly track, then winter weather headlines will likely be needed for this weekend...Timing of this storm would be from Saturday Night through Sunday Night.

As for the storm track:  Low pressure will move from Eastern Colorado toward Western Iowa then to Eastern Wisconsin.  It should be noted that the ECM (12z run) Japan Model (JMA) and the NAVY model remain farther south and keep most of the snow south of our local area.

Low temperatures Saturday Night will be in the single digits and teens with highs Sunday in the teens and 20s.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the single digits and teens.

The potential for another storm does exist sometime during the middle or end of next week based on latest model projections and the expected 500mb pattern which will consist of a Western U.S. trough and a ridge across the Southeast U.S.  Note:  The EUROPEAN model has looked quite ominous at times for late next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Becoming windy and turning colder.  Areas of fog which could be dense through mid-Evening.  Patchy drizzle also possible.  Flurries or snow showers at times Overnight with patchy light freezing drizzle.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 13 to 18.  Wind south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph becoming west This Evening and increasing to 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph possible.

.Friday...  Windy and colder.  Flurries or snow showers possible at times.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 30 to 35 which will occur just after Midnight Tonight with temperatures falling to around 20.  Wind west to northwest at 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 45 mph possible.

.Friday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 3 to 8.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 10 to 15.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow and flurries possible.  High 20 to 25.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 7 to 12.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High 15 to 20.

Normal temperatures for Today:

High:  25
Low:    6

Sunrise Tomorrow:  7:08 AM CST
Sunset Tomorrow:   5:38 PM CST

Tim

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

2/16/11: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:45 PM CST, Wednesday, February 16th, 2011

...INCREDIBLE WARMTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...

*Record Event*

Record high temperature set at Duluth, Minnesota.  The high temperature Today was 52 degrees which broke the previous record of 48 degrees set in 1981.  The 52 degree high for Today was 27 degrees above the normal high temperature of 25 degrees.

Record high temperature tied at International Falls, Minnesota.  The high temperature Today was 48 degrees which tied the record for the date which was last set in 1981.

Weather Tidbits:

*Today marks the 4th day in a row with a maximum temperature of at least 32 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

*First 50 degree high temperature of 2011 occurred Today at Duluth, Minnesota.  Last time the mercury hit 50 degrees was November 11th, 2010 (51 degrees)

*All time snowiest winter season at the following locations:  Source:  Wunder Blog/WeatherUnderground

Youngstown, Ohio:  92.4"/previous record was 85.3" in 1950-1951
Glasgow, Montana:  80.7"/previous record was 70.7" in 2003-2004
Tulsa, Oklahoma:  26.6"/previous record was 25.4" in 1923-1924

Weather Headlines:

*Unusually warm temperatures to continue thru Thursday
*Strong winds ahead for late Thursday/Friday
*Colder, but more seasonal temperatures starting on Friday
*Stormy pattern sets up next week, but will it effect the Upper Midwest?

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

The combination of sunshine and southerly winds resulted in another day of very warm temperatures throughout the region.  Highs Today were in the 40s and 50s, but Hibbing, Ely, and Orr, Minnesota managed to climb into the lower 60s This Afternoon! Other 60+ degree high temperatures occurred Today at Ironwood, Marquette, and Houghton, Michigan! Highs Today were about 10 degrees warmer than expected mainly because of the abundant sunshine.  Winds Today were out of the south, southeast, or southwest at 10-20 mph.  Surface map as of 4 PM featured low pressure of 994mb across the Central-Northern Rockies.  A cold front extended from Central Ontario Province to Northwest Minnesota to Central North Dakota.  Arctic air was in place This Afternoon behind this boundary with highs in the single digits in portions of Alberta and Saskatchewan Province.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Southwest 500mb flow was in place across the Rockies and Plains as a deep upper level low and potent upper level trough dive south/east through the Pacific Northwest...This storm is bringing an isolated risk for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes Today to portions of Oregon and California.  A strengthening baroclinic zone was developing Today with late Afternoon 850mb temperatures of -2 to -16 degrees C across Canada to +8 degrees C at Duluth, Minnesota to +20 degrees C at Garden City, Kansas per RUC model analysis.  Note:  High temperatures made it to the 80 degrees Today as far north as Southwestern Kansas.

Tonight:

A cold front will turn stationary in Northern Minnesota with another night of very mild temperatures in place near and south of this boundary.  Lows Tonight will be in the 30s with a few locales dropping to the 20s.  Note:  Forecasted temperatures Tonight will be 20 to 30 degrees above the average low for this time of year.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with areas of fog possible along with some patchy light drizzle or light freezing drizzle.  South or southeasterly winds are expected Tonight under 20 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Strong low pressure of 986-989mb will head northeast through the Northern Plains on Thursday before moving into Western Ontario Province Thursday Night.  One last day of unseasonably mild temperatures are in store on Thursday with highs in the 30s and 40s, but a few 50s are not out of the question.  Mostly cloudy skies are expected during this period with areas of fog and drizzle on Thursday.  By Thursday Night, expect areas of light drizzle, light freezing drizzle, snow showers/flurries which will transition to flurries/snow showers late Thursday Night as colder air moves in behind the Ontario low.  Winds out of the south on Thursday will shift to the west and northwest Thursday Night.  Wind speeds will increase to 10-25 mph on Thursday, picking up further Thursday Night to between 15-35 mph as strong cold advection pours into the area.

Extended Forecast:

Strong northwest winds of 15-35 mphwill continue on Friday with highs only in the teens and 20s across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Deep low pressure of around 982mb will head northeast through Ontario Province on Friday with plenty of wind and cold air dropping south into the Upper Midwest behind this storm.  Some flurries or snow showers are also possible on Friday, but only a dusting of accumulation is expected with perhaps an inch in far Northern Minnesota.  Dry weather is expected Friday Night with lows generally in the single digits.  Could be a few snow showers or flurries at times this weekend as a few disturbances lift E/NE across the Plains.  Highs on Saturday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Saturday Night in the single digits. 

Southwest 500mb flow is expected to continue next week with an upper level trough in place over the Western U.S. There are two systems that will eject out of this upper trough, but the trend with Today's models is for the first system to take the southerly route for early next week...The second one may track farther west/north, and it's that one that could eventually lead to some snow or mixed precip across our local area sometime the middle/end of next week.  Computer models have a good handle on the upcoming pattern, but they are having trouble resolving the tracks of the storms/disturbances that lift out of the Western U.S.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Unseasonably mild.  Partly cloudy.  Areas of fog possible.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Mild.  Considerable clouds.  Areas of fog or drizzle possible.  High 40 to 45.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph becoming southwest.

.Thursday Night...  Becoming windy.  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy drizzle early with patchy freezing drizzle, snow showers, and snow flurries developing late.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind becoming west to northwest at 15 to 30 mph.

.Friday...  Windy.  Considerable cloudiness.  Flurries or snow showers possible.  High 30 to 35 with temperatures falling to the 20s.  Northwest wind could occasionally gust to 30 mph.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 3 to 8.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 22 to 27.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow:

High:  25
Low:    6

Sunrise Tomorrow:  7:10 AM CST
Sunset Tomorrow:   5:36 PM CST

Tim

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

2/15/11: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:24 PM CST, Tuesday, February 15th, 2011

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A warm and breezy day with high temperatures ranging from the mid 30s in the Arrowhead to the upper 30s and lower 40s elsewhere.  Winds were out of the south or southwest at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts.  Partly to mostly sunny skies were found throughout our area.  Surface map as of 3 PM featured low pressure of 996mb along the Eastern Saskatchewan/Western Manitoba Province line with a trough attached to that low extending south through the Eastern Dakotas/Western Minnesota.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb flow has finally transitioned from what seem to be a never ending northwest flow...The upper level winds were blowing from the west Today per RUC model analysis with a fairly healthy, but moisture starved disturbance pushing east across the Upper Great Lakes and adjacent areas of Ontario Province per water vapor satellite imagery.  Strong warm advection pattern has setup across Minnesota Today with late Afternoon 850mb temperatures of +2 to +10 degrees C from northeast to southwest.

Tonight through Wednesday Night:

Partly-mostly cloudy skies with above average temperatures will persist during this period with southerly winds at 5-15 mph with some higher gusts.  Areas of fog, light drizzle, or light freezing drizzle could develop across our area late Tonight into Tomorrow Morning, and then again late Tomorrow Night.  Lows Tonight and Wednesday Night will be in the 20s and lower 30s with highs Tomorrow in the 30s and 40s.

Extended Forecast:

One last warm day is on tap for Thursday before temperatures trend back toward average levels from Friday through early next week.  Strong low pressure of around 987-990mb will pass west-north of our local area from Thursday into Friday.  Low clouds along with areas of fog, drizzle, and freezing drizzle will develop along and ahead of this low with precipitation turning over to flurries and snow showers late Thursday Night into Friday as cold air rushes in on the backside of the surface low.  Snow accumulations look light at this point with perhaps 1-2" falling north of a Bigfork to Grand Marais line and maybe a dusting farther south.  High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Thursday Night in the teens and 20s.  Highs Friday will be in the 20s and lower 30s with lows Friday Night in the single digits and teens.

Latest model guidance continues to show a Western U.S. trough and a southwest 500mb flow across the Plains for next week.  There are two systems worth monitoring that could bring us snow or possible mixed precipitation.  One could occur early next week (Monday, February 21st) the other could occur sometime the middle or end of next week (February 23rd-25th) The models are bouncing around on the track and intensity of both systems, but at times they have shown a rather strong low pressure/s lifting into the Upper Midwest, so next week will need to be watched carefully to see what future model runs show.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible late.  Low 27 to 32.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

.Wednesday...  Patchy fog possible mainly early.  Variable cloudiness.  High 38 to 43.  Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Areas of fog, light drizzle, or light freezing drizzle possible.  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 30 to 33.  Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy.  Areas of fog and drizzle.  High 40 to 45.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Areas of fog and drizzle which could mix with or change to snow showers, flurries, and light freezing drizzle.  Low 25 to 30.

.Friday...  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy with snow showers or flurries possible.  Colder.  High 30 to 35 with temperatures falling into the 20s.  Northwest wind could occasionally gust to 30 mph.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 3 to 8.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Today:

High:  25
Low:    5

Sunrise Tomorrow:  7:12 AM CST
Sunset Tomorrow:   5:35 PM CST

Tim