Monday, January 31, 2011

1/31/11: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:48 PM CST, Monday, January 31st, 2011

A narrow band of heavy lake effect snow affected parts of the Twin Ports early This Morning.  Snowfall totals as is usually the case with lake effect events varied widely within very short distances, in this instance around 3.0" was reported in West Duluth, while 6-8 miles off to the east...snowfall totals of 7-9+" were reported.  A similar freak lake effect snow event occurred on December 4th, 2007, but that one targeted the West End and West Duluth areas more than other parts of Duluth, 12-18" of snow was reported with that lake effect snow storm.

Here are some snowfall reports from Monday, January 31st, 2011:  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  7.0" measured at Sky Harbor Airport at 9:30 AM CST.
Park Point (St. Louis county)  7.5" measured at 17th street and Minnesota Ave. at 9:15 AM CST.
Park Point (St. Louis county)  9.0" measured at the intersection of 36th Ave and Minnesota Ave at 8:00 AM CST, the snow began before 3:00 AM CST.
Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  4.0" measured at the Coast Guard station on 12th and Minnesota Ave.
Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  4.0" measured at the Park Point Fire station on 21st and Minnesota Ave.
West Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  3.1"

Superior, WI (Douglas county)  4.0" measured at 1:35 PM CST.
2 miles east of Superior, WI (Douglas county)  8.0" measured at 1:35 PM CST.

Note:  Additional snow has fallen This Afternoon which may add to the totals listed above.

*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*

The National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota has issued a wind chill advisory from Midnight CST Tonight until 9 AM CST Tuesday for the following counties in Minnesota:  Koochiching...Itasca...Cass...Crow Wing...Northern Aitkin...St. Louis...Lake...and Cook.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  International Falls, MN...Bigfork, MN...Grand Rapids, MN...Cass Lake, MN...Walker, MN...Brainerd, MN...Hill City, MN...Duluth, MN...Hibbing, MN...Ely, MN...Two Harbors, MN...Silver Bay, MN...Finland, MN...and Grand Marais, MN.

Impacts:  Wind chill values of 15 below to 35 below late Tonight and Tuesday Morning, coldest values will be north and northeast of the Iron Range.  Frostbite times in a half hour or less will occur under these conditions.

A wind chill advisory means a combination of bitterly cold arctic air and brisk winds will create dangerously cold wind chill values.  If you must venture outdoors be sure to cover all exposed flesh as any exposed flesh can  freeze in 15 to 25 minutes with wind chill values from 25 below to 40 below.  This may result in frost bite and hypothermia if precautions are not taken.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Strong arctic high pressure 1048mb was building S/SE from Western Canada late Today while an epic winter storm takes shape with low pressure of 1002mb centered near Del Rio, Texas as of 3 PM.  A weaker disturbance has been dropping southeast out of the Northern Plains and this feature has been producing widespread and persistent light snow and flurries Today generally south of the Iron Range.  Heavier lake effect snow showers have been occurring since early This Morning across portions of Northern Douglas and extreme Southeastern St. Louis counties, into Eastern Carlton county with sustanial snow accumulations reported especially near the immediate lakeshore.  High temperatures Today ranged from the single digits in Northern Minnesota to the teens elsewhere.  Winds were out of the north or northeast under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

H5 trough was digging south out of the Northern Rockies per water vapor satellite imagery while a seperate H5 low/trough heads east out of the Southwest U.S.  A strong upper level jet 120 knots or greater was found over the Pacific Northwest and from Northern Mexico to Western Texas per RUC model analysis.  A brief shift in the 500mb pattern took place Today with a southwesterly flow covering the Upper Midwest as this complex storm system deepens and begins to phase.  Note:  Parts of 6 states...Including Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana are under Blizzard Warnings while Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories stretch from New Mexico, through the Midwest, to the Northeast U.S. all due to this historic winter storm that is taking shape Today.

Tonight:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover our local area with strong arctic high pressure >1050mb moving into the Northern Rockies.  Light snow and flurries south of the Iron Range will end from northwest to southeast This Evening.  Some locations could see up to an inch of additional snow accumulation before Midnight.  Localized heavy lake effect snow showers will persist This Evening in Douglas county Wisconsin, generally just south-east of the city of Superior...Additional snow accumulations could reach 6" in that area.  Lows Tonight will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero with minus teens and perhaps a few minus 20s in Northern Minnesota.  Note:  Low temperatures Sunday Night ranged from -18 degrees at International Falls to -17 degrees at Crane Lake to -15 degrees at Kabetogama.  North or northeast winds will continue under 20 mph Tonight.  Wind chill values of 15 below to 35 below zero are expected to develop late Tonight with the coldest readings north of Highway 2 in Minnesota.

Note:  Lake Effect Snow Warning remains in effect until 9 PM CST This Evening for Douglas county Wisconsin with the heaviest snow accumulations expected to occur just outside of the city of Superior.  South Superior, South Range and the Highway 13 route through Northern Douglas county will be impacted the greatest by heavy lake effect snow showers This Evening.  Snowfall rates could reach one inch an hour at times through mid-Evening.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Arctic high pressure of 1050-1055mb will continue to build south/southeast out of the Northern Rockies will strong low pressure of around 995mb tracks northeast out of Eastern Texas, toward Central Indiana by dawn Wednesday.  Northerly winds and cold temperatures will be common throughout our area during this period with partly to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday and partly cloudy skies Tuesday Night.  Lake effect snow showers or flurries are possible Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night along the South Shore of Lake Superior with a couple inches of accumulation possible.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the single digits to lower teens with lows Tuesday Night in the single digits, teens, and 20s below.  Winds will be out of the north under 20 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Dry weather is expected for Wednesday and Wednesday Night with highs in the single digits and teens with lows in the single digits below to single digits above zero.  The period from Thursday through the upcoming weekend looks unsettled at times as some disturbances and clipper type systems pass through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  Any one of those features could trigger periods of snow showers and flurries.  High temperatures on Thursday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Thursday Night generally in the teens.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*WIND CHILL ADVISORY* for St. Louis county including the city of Duluth
Timing:  12 AM CST Tonight until 9 AM CST Tuesday.

*LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING* for Douglas county including the city of Superior
Timing:  Until 9 PM CST Tonight.

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness with light snow and flurries, additional accumulations less than one inch.  Occasional heavy lake effect snow showers lingering This Evening, especially just south-southeast of Superior with additional accumulations up to 6".  Low zero to 5 below.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.  Wind chill values 15 below to 25 below.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 5 to 10.  Wind north at 10 to 20 mph.  Morning wind chill values from 15 below to 25 below.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 10 below to 15 below.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 10 to 15.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low zero to 5 above.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries or snow showers possible.  High 15 to 20.

.Thursday Night...  Considerable cloudiness.  Flurries possible.  Low 12 to 17.

.Friday...  Considerable cloudiness.  Flurries possible.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures Today

High:  20
Low:  1

Sunrise Tomorrow:  7:33 AM CST
Sunset Tomorrow:  5:12 PM CST

Tim

1/31/11: LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING

Issued at 10:49 AM CST, Monday, January 31st, 2011

A localized band of heavy lake effect snow has been hitting parts of Duluth/Superior since early This Morning.

*LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING*

The National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota has issued a lake effect snow warning until 9 PM CST This Evening for the following counties.  In Minnesota:  Southern St. Louis and Carlton.  In Wisconsin:  Douglas.  Some cities included in the warning are:  Duluth MN...Cloquet MN...Carlton MN...Wrenshall MN...Superior WI...Oliver WI...and South Range WI...

Impacts:  Bands of moderate to heavy lake effect snow with up to one inch an hour snowfall rates will continue through early This Evening near the immediate lakeshore, from Park Point and Sky Harbor, through portions of the city of Superior, these heavier snow showers could also extend farther west-southwest, affecting Downtown Duluth, West End, West Duluth, and Proctor.  Roads will be snow covered and slippery, some blowing snow is also possible.

Total snowfall accumulations will vary considerably ranging from 8-14" for the Park Point and Sky Harbor areas to between 3-7" from Downtown Duluth, West End, and West Duluth.  1-3" is expected farther inland.

Here some snowfall accumulations through 9:00-9:30 AM CST Today per NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

9:30 AM CST:  7.0" measured at Sky Harbor.  Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)
9:15 AM CST:  7.5" measured at Park Point, 17th Street.  (St. Louis county)
9:00 AM CST:  2.0" measured at Superior, WI (Douglas county)
9:03 AM CST:  3.8" measured 1 mile east-northeast of Superior, WI (Douglas county)
8:00 AM CST:  9.0" measured at Park Point, Intersection of 36th and Minnesota Ave.  Snow began falling before 3:00 AM Today.

A lake effect snow warning means significant amounts of lake effect snow accumulation are expected that will make travel very hazardous or impossible.  It is common for lake effect snow accumulations and snowfall rates to vary greatly over very short distances.  Some locations may receive one to several inches of snow per hour for a period of several hours.  Very low visibility may occur in the heaviest snow showers.  Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time and have a working cell phone in case you become stranded.

Tim

Saturday, January 29, 2011

1/29/11: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:07 PM CST, Saturday, January 29th, 2011

Heavy snow fell north-northeast of Duluth, and also near Lake Superior Friday Night...Here is the snowfall report from Friday, January 28th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Little Marais, MN (Lake county)  11.5"
Silver Bay, MN (Lake county)  10.5"
3 miles northeast of Tofte, MN (Cook county)  9.2"
Gile, WI (Iron county)  8.2"
5 miles northwest of Two Harbors, MN (Lake county)  8.0"
Ely, MN (St. Louis county)  7.5"
Lutsen, MN (Cook county)  7.5"
Montreal, WI (Iron county)  6.0"
Cornucopia, WI (Bayfield county)  6.0"
Beaver Bay, MN (Cook county)  6.0"
Littlefork, MN (Koochiching county)  5.2"
5 miles south of Herbster, WI (Bayfield county)  5.0"
Embarrass, MN (St. Louis county)  5.0"
17 miles northwest of Saginaw, MN (St. Louis county)  5.0"
Cotton, MN (St. Louis county)  4.8"
Ashland, WI (Ashland county)  3.9"
Butternut, WI (Ashland county)  2.5"
Maple, WI (Douglas county)  2.2"
Wrenshall, MN (Carlton county)  2.0"

Note:  Official snowfall total from Friday at the National Weather Service Duluth:  2.8" with 0.25" of precipitation.

Weather tidbits:

*January 2011 snowfall total at Duluth, Minnesota (thru the 28th)  16.1"/1.9" Below Normal
*December 1st 2010-January 28th, 2011 snowfall total at Duluth, Minnesota:  34.2"/1.3" Above Normal
*Snowfall total so far this winter:  69.8"/20.0" Above Normal

*Average monthly temperature thru the 28th at Duluth, Minnesota:  6.6 degrees/1.6 degrees Below Normal
*16 nights so far this month with low temperatures at or below zero degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure which brought the accumulating snow and areas of freezing drizzle to our area Friday Night has moved into the Ohio Valley Today, but a trough extending northwest of this low through Northern-Eastern Minnesota kept skies overcast Today with areas of light snow and flurries, accumulations have been kept to around an inch or less, however.  There has been a very persistent plume of lake effect snow Today over the head of Lake Superior, east-northeast to the Apostle Islands, but the heavier snow showers embedded within this plume have remained off shore, thus only a light dusting of snow has accumulated Today around the Twin Ports toward the Two Harbors area.  There was a wide range in temperatures Today with 20s in Northwest Wisconsin, Twin Ports, and Eastern Minnesota with lower to middle teens in Northern Minnesota.  Winds Today were out of the northwest, north, or east under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Split 500mb flow was in the process of developing with a northwest flow persisting across the Upper Midwest with a strong upper level jet 100 knots or greater covering the Northern Plains, east-southeast through the Southern Great Lakes per RUC model analysis.  Southern branch jet stream covered the Southern states, meanwhile a powerful storm system was affecting Washington State, Oregon, and California Today per water vapor satellite imagery.  The split flow will phase early next week which will help develop a major and widespread winter storm from the Plains to the Northeast U.S. next week.

Tonight:

Inverted trough washes out with areas of light snow and flurries coming to an end.  Exception to this will be along the South Shore of Lake Superior where scattered lake effect snow showers and flurries will linger Tonight with accumulations of 1-2" possible from Douglas county east to Iron county.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with lows in the single digits and teens below to above zero...Coldest temps will be in Northern Minnesota.  Winds Tonight will be out of the north, northwest, or northeast under 20 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue during this period with scattered lake effect flurries or snow showers near Lake Superior, accumulations will be minimal (around an inch at best) Snow associated with a Northern Rockies disturbance could affect southern parts of our area by Sunday Night, but the heavier snow is expected to remain over the Dakotas and Western-Southern Minnesota where winter storm watches and advisories are in effect.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the single digits and teens with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits and teens below to above zero.  Winds will be out of the north or northeast at 10-20 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Light snow and flurries are possible Monday through early Tuesday for areas south of the Iron Range, could see up to an inch or two of accumulation around the Brainerd Lakes area with little if any accumulation elsewhere.  Otherwise the main story for our local area during the early to mid part of next week will be the approach of a mammoth 1050+mb arctic high pressure system which will build S/SE out of the Northern Rockies.  High temperatures for Monday and Tuesday will be in the single digits to around 10 above with lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night in the single digits and teens below zero with some 20s below possible in Northern Minnesota.  Looking farther ahead:  Might see another clipper or two move into the Upper Midwest late next week or next weekend, but there are no signs of any big Southern type systems coming this way anytime soon (possibly thru mid-February)

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Light snow and flurries tapering to scattered flurries Overnight.  Accumulations under 1".  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 7 to 12.  Wind northeast at 5 to 15 mph, becoming north.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  Scattered flurries or snow showers.  Little if any accumulation expected.  High 13 to 18.  Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy with flurries.  Low zero to 5 above.  Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Mostly cloudy with flurries.  High 10 to 15.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 5 to 10.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 5 to 10.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  20
Low:  0

Sunrise Tomorrow:  7:36 AM CST
Sunset Tomorrow:  5:09 PM CST

Tim

Friday, January 28, 2011

1/28/11: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:40 PM CST, Friday, January 28th, 2011

*Winter Storm Warning* remains in effect for Lake and Cook counties Minnesota until 4 PM CST Saturday.

*Winter Weather Advisory* remains in effect for Southern St. Louis and Carlton counties Minnesota and for Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron counties Wisconsin until 6 AM CST Saturday.

*Winter Weather Advisory* remains in effect for Midnight CST Tonight for Koochiching, Itasca, Northern Cass, Central and Northern St. Louis counties Minnesota and for Washburn, Sawyer, and Price counties Wisconsin.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 1002mb has moved into Northwestern Minnesota as of 3 PM.  A strong temperature gradient existed Today across the region with 50s in Western South Dakota and 30s in the Eastern Dakotas while single digits were common just north of Minnesota.  60 degree temperatures were as far north as Southern Nebraska This Afternoon with the 70 degree line to a Garden City to Wichita, Kansas line.  Intense band of snow with hourly rates around an inch developed This Afternoon in Northcentral Minnesota, while spreading east-southeast.  Strong warm advection, frontogenesis, and good upper level divergence helped in developing this band of moderate-heavy snowfall.  The fast movement of this system is limiting the heavy snow to an hour or two, except from the Iron Range through the Arrowhead of Minnesota.  Temperatures Today were in the teens and 20s with winds out of the southeast or east at 10-15 mph with some higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow persists Today with a 120 knot jet streak now moving through Northern Wisconsin late Today per RUC model analysis.  A potent disturbance was heading southeast from the Manitoba Lakes region with a tight thermal gradient in place to the south of this system with 850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranging from +6 degrees C in Southwestern Minnesota to -8 degrees C at Duluth to -16 degrees C around Thunder Bay, Ontario Canada.

Tonight:

Low pressure will track from Northwest Minnesota to Western Wisconsin This Evening to Southwestern lower Michigan by dawn.  A band of moderate to heavy snow will continue to move through Northwestern Wisconsin through 8 PM This Evening with lingering snow showers and flurries persisting in these areas from mid-Evening and through the rest of Tonight.  Snow should be fairly steady This Evening before tapering off to flurries and snow showers late Tonight along and northeast of a line from Northome and Grand Rapids to between Duluth and French River with areas southwest of this line seeing occasional snow showers and flurries Tonight.  Patchy light freezing drizzle could also develop This Evening from the Brainerd Lakes area toward Aitkin and along the I-35 corridor in Minnesota, this risk could also extend into Northwestern Wisconsin.  Lows Tonight will be in the teens and 20s with some single digits in far Northern Minnesota.  Winds This Evening will be out of the south or east, winds late Tonight will be from the east along the North Shore of Lake Superior with southwest or north-northwest winds for the rest of our area.  Wind speeds Tonight will range from 10-20 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

A weak trough will extend northwest into the Upper Midwest during this period with high pressure well to our north.  Lingering flurries and snow showers with under 1" additional accumulation can be expected in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with a considerable amount of clouds.  Highs on Saturday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Saturday Night in the single digits and teens below zero in Northern Minnesota with single digits below to around 10 above zero readings for the rest of our area.  Winds will be out of the east, north, or northwest under 20 mph during this period.

Note:  E/NE winds will cause lake effect snow showers along the North Shore of Lake Superior Tonight and Saturday, the majority of this should remain northeast of the Twin Ports.  Winds will begin to back to the north by Saturday Afternoon or Evening which will shift the lake effect snow shower threat to the South Shore, mainly affecting Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron counties.

Snowfall storm totals for Tonight:

Due to the quick moving nature of this system, snowfall totals should be in the 1-3" range with 3-6" totals occurring along and north-northeast of Highway 2 with amounts of 6-9" possible along the North Shore of Lake Superior from French River and Two Harbors, to Silver Bay, Little Marais, Lutsen, and Grand Marais.

Note:  Additional snowfall accumulations near Lake Superior will range from 1-3" Saturday and Saturday Night.

Extended Forecast:

Computer models are starting to converge on a solution for next week...It does appear there will be a rather strong area of low pressure that will develop in the Southern Plains early next week before it lifts northeast toward the Ohio Valley around the middle of next week.  Winter storm threat associated with this storm is forecast to remain well to our south/southeast.  We may see some flurries around our area between Monday-Tuesday of next week due to an upper level trough that will settle south-east into the Upper Midwest,  but the big story for our local area will be the approach of a strong 1050+ mb arctic high pressure
system which will build south-southeast out of the Northern Rockies early next week.  High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the single digits with lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night in the single digits and teens below zero with some 20s below certainly possible in Northern Minnesota.

Note:  A northerly flow could lead to some lake effect snow showers at times along the South Shore of Lake Superior from Sunday through Tuesday with some accumulation possible.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Timing:  Until 6 AM CST Saturday.

.Tonight...  Occasional snow This Evening.  Total accumulations 2-4".  Patchy light freezing drizzle possible This Evening.  Scattered snow showers and flurries Overnight with additional accumulations under an inch.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph, becoming south to southwest, then variable Overnight.

.Saturday...  Considerable cloudiness.  Occasional flurries and snow showers.  Accumulations 1" or less.  High 23 to 28.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy with flurries.  Low 2 to 7 above.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High 8 to 13.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 5 to 10.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 5 to 10.

Normal temperatures for Today:

High:  19
Low:  0

Sunrise Tomorrow:  7:37 AM CST
Sunset Tomorrow:  5:07 PM CST

Tim

1/28/11: WINTER STORM WARNING/ADVISORY INFORMATION

Issued at 12:34 PM CST, Friday, January 28th, 2011

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

The National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota has issued a winter storm warning until 4 PM CST Saturday for the following counties in Northeast Minnesota.  Lake and Cook.  Some cities included in the warning are:  Knife River MN...Two Harbors MN...Silver Bay MN...Finland MN...Little Marais MN...Isabella MN...Forest Center MN...Tofte MN...Lutsen MN...Grand Marais MN...Hovland MN...and Grand Portage MN.

Impacts:  Snow will continue to increase in coverage and intensity This Afternoon in Northeast Minnesota with occasional snow continuing Tonight and Saturday.  Snowfall rates approaching one inch an hour are possible This Afternoon and This Evening with visibility dropping to around a half mile at times.  Roads will become snow covered and travel will be hazardous through Saturday.  Total snowfall accumulations of 6-12" are expected along the North Shore of Lake Superior with snowfall storm totals of 4-6" occurring further inland from Lake Superior.

A winter storm warning for heavy snow means heavy snow accumulation is expected and that snowfall rates of one inch per hour or greater can be expected at times.  Expect snow and ice covered roads and visibility less than a quarter mile at times.  Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle including a flashlight, food, and water.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

The National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota has issued a winter weather advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for the following counties.  In Minnesota:  Southern St. Louis and Carlton.  In Wisconsin:  Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...and Iron.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  Floodwood MN...Duluth MN...Cloquet MN...Moose Lake MN...Superior WI...Poplar WI...Solon Springs WI...Port Wing WI...Cornucopia WI...Bayfield WI...Iron River WI...Drummond WI...Cable WI...Ashland WI...Mellen WI...Butternut WI...Upson WI...Montreal WI...Gile WI...and Hurley WI.

Impacts:  Snow will continue to develop This Afternoon and will become moderate to heavy at times from mid-Afternoon through mid-Evening.  Occasional snow showers will persist Overnight into Saturday.  Visibility could drop as low as one half mile at times This Afternoon and Evening with snowfall rates of one half to one inch an hour possible.  Total snowfall accumulations of 3-5" are expected in the advisory area with localized greater amounts of 6".  Roads will become snow covered and slippery through Saturday Morning, travel will be hazardous.

A winter weather advisory for snow means that accumulating snow will cause travel difficulities.  Be prepared for snow covered roads and reduced visibility and use caution while driving.  Allow extra time to reach your destination.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

The National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota has issued a winter weather advisory until Midnight CST Tonight for the following counties...In Minnesota:  Koochiching...Itasca...Northern Cass...and Northern Aitkin.  In Wisconsin:  Washburn...Sawyer...and Price.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  International Falls MN...Bigfork MN...Togo MN...Grand Rapids MN...Cass Lake MN...Backus MN...Hill City MN...Minong WI...Spooner WI...Hayward WI...Exeland WI...Winter WI...Park Falls WI...and Phillips WI.

Impacts:  Snow will continue to spread east-southeast through Northcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Afternoon.  Snow will continue into the Evening before tapering off to flurries and snow showers Overnight and Saturday.  Moderate to heavy snow is possible This Afternoon and Evening with visibility dropping to around one half mile at times with hourly snowfall rates of one half to one inch.  Roads will become snow covered and travel will be hazardous.

Tim

Thursday, January 27, 2011

1/27/11: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 8:18 PM CST, Thursday, January 27th, 2011

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Lots of low clouds along with areas of fog, light freezing drizzle, and flurries around our area Today with the fog and freezing drizzle dissipating during the Afternoon.  Above normal temperatures were found in our area Today with highs in the 20s along with light winds out of the west or north under 15 mph.  Surface map at 7 PM CST featured a stationary front over Central Minnesota with high pressure of 1018mb centered over Northern Ontario Province.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow continues per RUC model analysis with a tight thermal gradient in place with 850mb temperatures at 7 PM CST ranging from +8 degrees C at Rapid City, South Dakota to -12 degrees C at International Falls, Minnesota.  A rather healthy clipper system heading southeast from Northwestern Canada will take advantage of this temperature contrast during the next 24 hours.

Tonight:

High pressure will be centered well to our N/NE while a stationary front remains over Central parts of Minnesota.  Mostly cloudy skies will be found across our local area Tonight with some clearing possible along and northeast of a line from International Falls to Hibbing to Isabella.  Lows Tonight will be in the single digits and teens, but some locations from the Iron Range on north could drop below zero depending on how soon the skies clear.  Winds Tonight will be variable under 15 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

Low pressure in Western Saskatchewan Province early This Evening will move southeast reaching Northcentral parts of Minnesota late Friday Afternoon and Eastern Wisconsin by late Friday Night.  PWS around 0.30" combined with some fairly strong forcing and warm advection north/east of the surface low will cause snow to break out across Northcentral Minnesota Friday Morning, the snow will then spread south/east into Eastern Minnesota and Northwestern Wisconsin by Friday Afternoon.  Snow will then diminish to flurries or snow showers from northwest to southeast Friday Night.  High temperatures Tomorrow will be in the 20s to lower 30s with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits and teens.  Winds on Friday will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph with winds Friday Night out of the northwest, east, or northeast at 10-20 mph.

Note:  There should be some lake enhanced snowfall Friday and Friday Evening along the North Shore of Lake Superior from Two Harbors northeast to Grand Marais as E/SE winds develop.  Scattered lake effect snow showers could then develop late Friday Night as winds back to the E/NE along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Snowfall storm totals for Friday and Friday Night:

1-3" accumulations will be common throughout Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, but locations along and north of Highway 2 in Minnesota could receive 4" of snow with isolated 5" amounts.  The Minnesota North Shore-northeast of Duluth has the potential of getting 6-8" of snow with localized higher amounts around 10".

Extended Forecast:

Lingering flurries and snow showers are possible across our area this weekend as a weak trough remains over the Upper Midwest, some additional snow accumulation is possible especially near Lake Superior as E/NE winds continue on Saturday before shifting more to the north Saturday Night and Sunday.  Strong arctic high pressure >1042mb will settle into the Northern Plains during the weekend and will shift into the Upper Midwest early next week.  High temperatures on Saturday will be in the teens and 20s with highs on Sunday in the single digits and teens.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the single digits below to around 10 above zero with lows Sunday Night in the single digits and teens below zero.

Note:  Model agreement is rather poor early next week, GFS would have a full blown cold wave with no snow for our area, the EURO has trended toward the GFS to some extent while the GEM-Global and NAM have a different solution and would have to be watched for possible accumulating snowfall for portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries at times.  Low 11 to 16.  Wind north to northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Flurries or snow showers possible early...Snow developing mid to late Morning with snow during the Afternoon.  High 25 to 30.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night...  Snow early with occasional snow showers and flurries continuing the remainder of the night.  Total snowfall accumulations 2-3".  Mostly cloudy.  Low 12 to 17.  Wind east to northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Scattered snow showers and flurries.  Accumulations 1" or less.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 20 to 25.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 2 to 7 above.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  High 10 to 15.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low zero to 5 below.

.Monday...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries possible.  High 10 to 15.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  19
Low:   0

Sunrise Friday:  7:38 AM CST
Sunset Friday:  5:06 PM CST

Tim

1/27/11: WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INFORMATION

Issued at 4:32 PM CST, Thursday, January 27th, 2011

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

The National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota has issued a winter weather advisory from 9 AM CST Friday until 12 AM CST Friday for the following counties in Northern Minnesota.  Koochiching...Itasca...Central and Northern St. Louis.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  International Falls MN...Bigfork MN...Togo MN...Grand Rapids MN...Cotton MN...Hibbing MN...Ely MN...Orr MN...and Crane Lake MN.

Impacts:  Snow will move into Northern Minnesota between 5-8 AM Friday with snow continuing through Friday Evening before tapering off to flurries late Friday Night.  Total snowfall accumulations of 2-4" with localized higher amounts of 5" are expected in the advisory area.  Roads will become snow covered and slippery with limited visibility in falling snow.

A winter weather advisory for snow means that accumulating snow will cause travel difficulties.  Be prepared for snow covered roads and reduced visibility.  Use caution while driving and allow extra time to reach your destination.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

The National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota has issued a winter weather advisory from 9 AM CST Friday until Midnight CST Friday for the following counties in Northeast Minnesota.  Cook and Lake.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  Knife River MN...Two Harbors MN...Silver Bay MN...Finland MN...Little Marais MN...Isabella MN...Forest Center MN...Tofte MN...Lutsen MN...Grand Marais MN...Hovland MN...and Grand Portage MN.

Impacts:  Scattered lake effect snow showers are possible along the North Shore of Lake Superior Overnight and early Friday Morning.  Snow accumulations will be under an inch.  Snow associated with an Alberta Clipper will move into Northeast Minnesota Friday Morning with snow continuing into Friday Evening before tapering off to snow showers and flurries Overnight Friday.  Total snowfall accumulations of 3-5" are expected in the advisory area, but an easterly wind coming off Lake Superior could lead to lake enhanced snowfall resulting in higher amounts of 5-8", especially from Two Harbors to Castle Danger to Silver Bay, northeast to Little Marais, Lutsen, and Grand Marais.  Roads will become snow covered and slippery Friday and Friday Night with visibility dropping to a mile or less in falling snow.

Tim

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

1/26/11: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 8:07 PM CST, Wednesday, January 26th, 2011

Weather History:

On this date in 2004:  0.78" of precipitation with 18.2" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A mix bag of conditions around our area with some sunshine, clouds, along with late Afternoon snow showers which have been moving S/SE through Northern-Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin early This Evening.  Some of these snow showers have been quite vigorous with cloud tops approaching 15,000 feet along with intensities of 30-35 dbz per doppler radar.  These snow showers are fast moving though which are limiting snowfall accumulations to about a dusting, up to 1/2".  High temperatures Today were in the upper teens and 20s, similar to the past three days.  Winds Today were out of the south or west under 20 mph.  Surface map as of 7 PM featured a cold front from Central Lake Superior to Northern Lower Michigan.  Low pressure of 1008mb was centered in Eastern Manitoba Province with a stationary front attached to that low centered over the Eastern Dakotas.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow continues with a couple of weak disturbances dropping S/SE across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight:

The cold front across Central Lake Superior will move west-southwest while a disturbance continues to drop south/southeast through the Upper Midwest.  Areas of snow showers and flurries will persist most of the night in our area with accumulations of under an inch.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows in the single digits and teens are expected Tonight with winds out of the southwest or northwest under 20 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Cold front will become stationary in Central Minnesota with high pressure sliding east through Ontario Province.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies with some flurries can be expected across our local area during this period.  Highs Tomorrow will be mainly in the 20s with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits and teens.  North, east, or south winds under 20 mph will be common during this period.

Note:  There is a threat for some lake effect snow showers Tomorrow and Tomorrow Evening along the South Shore of Lake Superior, but accumulations should be held to around an inch or so.  By Thursday Night, winds will begin to shift to the E/NE along the North Shore of Lake Superior and this could cause a few lake effect snow showers along Highway 61 from Two Harbors through Silver Bay to Grand Marais, accumulations should be under an inch though.

Extended Forecast:

A stronger clipper system with a 100+ knot jet streak will dive southeast out of Westcentral Canada and will reach the Northern half of Minnesota Friday Afternoon, before shifting into Central-Eastern Wisconsin Friday Night.  The forecast models Today have come into better agreement compared to the past few days in regards to the track of this system.  The trend Today per NAM and SREF models is to shift the low more to the west-south which is similar to what past runs of the GFS, GEM-Global, and EURO models had been showing.  The impact from this would be for a better shot of accumulating snow for the majority of our area for Friday and Friday Night.  Widespread snowfall totals of 1-3" can be expected in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with an axis of higher snowfall totals in the 3-5" range occurring along an International Falls to Two Harbors line and points northeast from there.  Easterly winds coming off Lake Superior may also lead to some lake enhanced snowfall Friday and Friday Evening along the North Shore from Two Harbors to Grand Portage...The potential does exist for 5-7" snowfall totals northeast of the Twin Ports, through the Arrowhead.  Snow should be winding down from northwest to southeast Friday Night as the low pulls away.  Highs on Friday will be in the 20s and lower 30s with lows Friday Night in the single digits and teens.  Saturday will see the clipper system moving through the lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region with a trough stretching northwest of that low through the Upper Midwest.  Could see some lingering flurries or snow showers occur across our area Saturday and Saturday Night with some accumulations possible for the South Shore of Lake Superior as northerly winds develop producing possible lake effect snow showers south/east of the city of Superior.  Highs on Saturday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Saturday Night in the single digits below to single digits above zero.

Note:  Big differences showing up for the early to mid part of next week with the EURO cranking up a decent size storm as it tracks from the Louisiana/Mississippi area, north-northeast toward Detroit Michigan while the GFS shows no signs of a storm, but instead shows lots of very cold air spreading into the Plains and Upper Midwest.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Occasional flurries and snow showers, accumulations less than an inch.  Low 13 to 18.  Wind west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Flurries possible.  Partly sunny.  High 22 to 27.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 12 to 17.  Wind becoming southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Occasional flurries or snow showers during the Morning.  Snow in the Afternoon.  High 25 to 30.

.Friday Night...  Snow during the Evening tapering to flurries and snow showers late.  Total accumulations 1-3".  Mostly cloudy.  Low 12 to 17.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  High 20 to 25.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 2 to 7 above.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  High 12 to 17.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  19
Low:  -1

Sunrise Tomorrow:  7:39 AM CST
Sunset Tomorrow:  5:04 PM CST

Tim

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

1/25/11: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 8:10 PM CST, Tuesday, January 25th, 2011

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies with scattered flurries and high temperatures in the middle teens to middle 20s were common throughout our area with winds out of the west or southwest up to 20 mph.  Surface map as of 7 PM CST featured a cold front nearing the Minnesota/Ontario border with low pressure of 1010mb centered in Northeastern Ontario.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwesterly 500mb flow continues to be the story across the Upper Midwest while another potent storm affects the Southern/Eastern U.S. per water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight:

Cold front will sag south during the night with scattered flurries possible along with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Lows will be in the single digits and teens with a few subzero lows possible mainly in Northern Minnesota.  Winds will shift from the west-southwest to the north-northwest, wind speeds will be under 20 mph.

Note:  There will be a narrow window of opportunity for lake effect snow showers late Tonight and Wednesday Morning for Ashland and Iron counties Wisconsin, snowfall accumulations should remain light and generally be in the 1-3" range.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Cold front will stall out to our west and south while a weak disturbance moves into the Upper Midwest.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue this period with a threat for some snow showers or flurries, snow accumulations will be less than an inch.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the teens and 20s with lows Tomorrow Night generally in the teens.  Winds will shift from the north-northwest to the south or southwest under 20 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Forecast models are not in very good agreement for Thursday and Friday with differences seen with the track of two low pressure systems late this week.  As an example:  The last few runs per GFS model has 3-6" snow accumulations affecting much of the Northland late this week, whereas the NAM is much drier with snow accumulations generally around 2" or less, with the bulk of that snow occurring north/east of the Iron Range.  The differences are due to the handling of the lows late this week, the GFS, GEM-Global, and EURO models are farther west-south while the NAM and SREF model (15z run) are farther north, with the SREF being the farthest north.  The potential does exist for some snow to affect portions if not all of our area for Thursday and Friday, it won't be a continous snowfall though, one wave could move through on Thursday, followed by a break Thursday Night/Friday Morning, with the second wave passing through Friday Afternoon-early Saturday.  Some accumulation will be possible, depending on these systems track.

High temperatures will be in the 20s to lower 30s for Thursday and Friday which will be above average for late January.  Low temperatures will be in the teens and 20s Thursday Night and Friday Night.

The first week of February continues to look rather cold across the Upper Midwest per long range model guidance, although the real cold air seems to be getting delayed by a day or two with each new model run.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Occasional snow flurries.  Low 6 to 11.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph, becoming north to northwest.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  Occasional snow flurries.  High 18 to 23.  Wind becoming southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries possible.  Accumulations under one inch.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries possible.  High 22 to 27.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 15 to 20.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries possible.  High 25 to 30.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries possible.  Low 15 to 20.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow:

High:  19
Low:  -1

Tim

Monday, January 24, 2011

1/24/11: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:02 PM CST, Monday, January 24th, 2011

Snowfall report for Sunday Night and Monday, January 23rd-24th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Kabetogama, MN (St. Louis county)  4.8"
8 miles east-southeast of Gunflint Trail Lake, MN (Cook county)  4.0"
11 miles northeast of Grand Marais, MN (Cook county)  3.5"
Littlefork, MN (Koochiching county)  2.9"
14 miles west of Isabella, MN (Lake county)  2.5"
International Falls, MN (Koochiching county)  2.3"
Silver Bay, MN (Lake county)  1.9"
3 miles east of Orr, MN (St. Louis county)  1.9"
Beaver Bay, MN (Lake county)  1.0"
Grand Portage, MN (Cook county)  1.0"
Embarrass, MN (St. Louis county)  1.0"

5 miles northwest of Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  0.3" measured at the National Weather Service.

Lake effect snowfall report for Saturday, January 22nd, 2011.  Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Mellen, WI (Ashland county)  7.5"
Gile, WI (Iron county)  4.0"
Montreal, WI (Iron county)  4.0"
2 miles north-northwest of Bayfield, WI (Bayfield county)  4.0"

Low temperature report for Sunday, January 23rd, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

International Falls, MN:  -37 degrees
Brainerd, MN:  -23 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  -31 degrees
Hayward, WI:  -26 degrees
Two Harbors, MN:  -24 degrees
Silver Bay, MN:  -27 degrees
Grand Marais, MN:  -27 degrees
Ely, MN:  -33 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  -35 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  -33 degrees
Siren, WI:  -25 degrees
Phillips, WI:  -22 degrees
Bruno, MN:  -27 degrees
Littlefork, MN:  -33 degrees
Northome, MN:  -32 degrees
Babbitt, MN:  -37 degrees
Cook, MN:  -30 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  -39 degrees
Floodwood, MN:  -33 degrees
Kabetogama, MN:  -34 degrees
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  -36 degrees
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  -32 degrees
Upson, WI:  -20 degrees
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  -21 degrees
Winter, WI:  -24 degrees

Duluth, MN:  -21 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN:  -15 degrees
Superior, WI:  -18 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 1009mb was centered north of Lake Superior as of 3 PM with low pressure of 1010mb centered in Eastern Minnesota.  A cold front connected the two lows and that boundary was pushing south/east out of Northern Minnesota This Afternoon.  The majority of the snow associated with this system fell north of Highway 2 with only a dusting or half inch of new snow affecting the Twin Ports, Northwest Wisconsin, and Eastern Minnesota.  Mostly cloudy skies covered our area Today with off an on flurries and snow showers.  Temperatures have warmed up compared to recent days with highs Today in the middle teens to lower 20s which is about normal for late January.  Winds Today were out of the northwest or west-southwest under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow of recent weeks has amplified a bit to more of a N/NW 500mb flow Today per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis, net result is about the same except for milder temperatures which have spread into the Upper Midwest Today.

Tonight through Tuesday Night:

Low pressure and cold front will exit to our south/east This Evening, this will be followed by another cold front and weak disturbance which will drop southeast into our area by Tuesday Night.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover our area during this period with occasional flurries or light snow showers, but little if any accumulation is expected.  There could be 1-3" of snow that falls, however, along the South Shore of Lake Superior, mainly in Ashland and Iron counties.  Low temperatures Tonight and Tuesday Night will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero with highs Tomorrow in the teens to lower 20s.  Winds will be out of the north or west under 15 mph Tonight.  West or southwest winds Tomorrow and Tomorrow Evening will become northwest late Tomorrow Night, wind speeds will be under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Northwest upper level flow continues through early next week.  Two clipper systems, one on Thursday, the other arriving Friday-early Saturday could bring some snow to Northern Minnesota on Thursday, and to most of our area Friday-early Saturday, although at the moment the more significant snow totals of around 3" or so look to fall north-northeast of the Iron Range.  Friday's system looks stronger and a tad more south compared to Thursday's clipper, and if this trend continues, then the threat for slightly higher snow totals may occur late this week.  High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Wednesday Night in the single digits with lows Thursday Night holding nearly steady from the high temperatures on Thursday.  Note:  Long range computer models continue to show more arctic air moving into the Upper Midwest, especially during the first week of February.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Flurries at times.  Low 1 to 6 above.  Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 15 to 20.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 3 to 8 above.  Wind west to southwest at 10 to 15 mph, becoming northwest.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High 15 to 20.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  High 22 to 27.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers and flurries.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  19
Low:  -1

Tim

Saturday, January 22, 2011

1/22/11: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:21 PM CST, Saturday, January 22nd, 2011

Low temperature report for Saturday, January 22nd, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

International Falls, MN:  -26 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  -31 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  -24 degrees
Longville, MN:  -24 degrees
Pine River, MN:  -22 degrees
Littlefork, MN:  -30 degrees
Northome, MN:  -28 degrees
Cook, MN:  -28 degrees
Kabetogama, MN:  -34 degrees
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  -37 degrees

Weather Tidbits:

Precipitation/snowfall total at Duluth, Minnesota on Friday, January 21st, 2011

*0.02"/0.7"  Very high snow ratios in the Twin Ports on Friday, right around 40:1 to 50:1

*0.01" of precipitation with 1.1" of snow was reported at the Twin Cities on Friday, January 21st, 2011.  The snow ratio down in the cities was closer to 100:1 Incredible!

*Duluth, Minnesota snowfall total for January 2011 (thru the 22nd)  12.1" which is 2.3" Below Normal.

*High temperature of -5 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota on Friday, January 22nd, 2011 marked the first time since January 2nd, 2010 with a subzero maximum temperature.

*LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY*

The National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota has issued a lake effect snow advisory until Midnight CST Tonight.  This advisory includes the following counties in Northwest Wisconsin:  Bayfield...Ashland...and Iron.  Some cities included in the advisory:  Port Wing WI...Cornucopia WI...Bayfield WI...Washburn WI...Iron River WI...Ashland WI...High Bridge WI...Upson WI...Montreal WI...Hurley WI...and Gile WI...

Impacts:  Occasional lake effect snow showers, heavy at times with visibilities down to one quarter mile.  Snowfall rates around one inch per hour are possible in the heavier snow showers.  Roads will be snow covered and slippery making for hazardous driving conditions.

Total snowfall accumulations of 3-7" are expected by late Tonight in the advisory area.

A lake effect snow advisory means lake effect snow is forecast that will make travel difficult in some areas.  It is common for lake effect snow accumulations and snowfall rates to vary greatly over very short distances.  If you are traveling be prepared for visibility to change from several miles to less than a half mile over very short distances.  Road conditions may vary from fairly good to snow and ice covered over distances of less than a quarter mile.  Use caution when driving and allow extra time to reach your destination.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Quite a bit of sunshine but cold temperatures across our area Today with highs in the single digits below to single digits above zero.  Lake effect snow showers, heavy at times have been occurring along the South Shore of Lake Superior with favorable conditions in place to support lake effect snow Today.  Winds were out of the north under 20 mph.  Surface map as of 5 PM features high pressure of 1026mb centered in Southern Manitoba Province with low pressure of 1010mb centered over Lake Huron.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow continues over the Upper Midwest with a potent disturbance dropping south-southeast out of Eastern Wyoming...This system is giving parts of the Central Plains several inches of snow Today and Tonight. 

Tonight:

One final night of bitterly cold temperatures are on tap as high pressure settles over the Upper Midwest.  Clear skies This Evening will become partly to mostly cloudy Overnight.  Low temperatures will be in the teens, 20s, and 30s below zero Tonight with north or nearly calm winds, becoming southerly toward dawn.  The lake effect snow threat along the South Shore of Lake Superior will diminish after Midnight, but before that happens there will be several inches of accumulation across portions of Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron counties.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

High pressure moves off to our east with the next clipper system embedded within the persistent northwest upper level flow dropping south/east into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  Light snow will spread into Northcentral Minnesota on Sunday with snow spreading into Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin by late Sunday Afternoon or early Sunday Evening.  Light snow will then continue Sunday Night, but will taper off from northwest to southeast Overnight.

Note:  Snowfall accumulations of 1-3" are possible in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with the higher amounts occurring along and north of Highway 2.  Some lake enhanced snowfall due to southerly winds could result in higher snowfall totals for the North Shore of Lake Superior with perhaps 4-7" of snow from Silver Bay and Lutsen, northeast through Grand Marais and Grand Portage.

Extended Forecast:

Milder temperatures are forecast most of this upcoming week as the arctic air eases for a couple days.  Sunday Night's clipper system will be in the process of weakening and pulling south/east of our local area on Monday, some lingering snow showers and flurries will occur on Monday, but additional accumulations should be kept to under an inch.  Dry weather should return Monday Night, then we could get a few flurries here and there Tuesday and Wednesday, but nothing significant is expected at this time.  The next more organized clipper (after Sunday Night's) should sail through the Upper Midwest/Northern Great Lakes sometime Friday-Saturday, January 28th-29th, this one could bring another round of accumulating snow to our area, although based on current model projections it seems to be favoring the Arrowhead and Iron Range, this could change though in coming days.  Note:  The long range computer models are showing arctic air pushing south into the Upper Midwest, either next weekend or during the 1st week of February.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Bitterly cold.  Low 17 below to 22 below.  Wind north at 5 to 15 mph, becoming variable Overnight. 

.Sunday...  Increasing cloudiness.  Light snow developing around late Afternoon.  High 3 to 8 above.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Light snow...Accumulations of 1-2" possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Nearly steady temperatures in the single digits above zero.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries.  High 13 to 18.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low zero to 5 above.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 15 to 20.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 3 to 8 above.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 15 to 20.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow:

High:  18
Low:  -1

Tim

Friday, January 21, 2011

1/21/11: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:31 PM CST, Friday, January 21st, 2011

Widespread bitterly cold temperatures Thursday Night/Friday Morning.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

International Falls, MN:  -46 degrees
Babbitt, MN:  -46 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  -45 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  -43 degrees
Littlefork, MN:  -40 degrees
Minong, WI:  -39 degrees
Cass Lake, MN:  -38 degrees
Kabetogama, MN:  -38 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  -38 degrees
Hill City, MN:  -37 degrees
Ely, MN:  -37 degrees
Pine River, MN:  -36 degrees
Hayward, WI:  -34 degrees
Moose Lake, MN:  -34 degrees
Grand Rapids, MN:  -33 degrees
Aitkin, MN:  -33 degrees
Brainerd, MN:  -33 degrees
South Range, WI:  -33 degrees
Silver Bay, MN:  -31 degrees
Two Harbors, MN:  -31 degrees
Hinckley, MN:  -31 degrees
Isabella, MN:  -29 degrees
Phillips, WI:  -26 degrees
Washburn, WI:  -25 degrees
Pine City, MN:  -25 degrees
Maple, WI:  -22 degrees

Duluth, MN:  -25 degrees
Superior, WI:  -26 degrees

Tidbits from last night's cold weather.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota and the Northland's News Center.

*This Morning's low temperature of -25 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota tied for the 5th coldest low temperature in the last decade (since 2000) The coldest minimum temperature of the 2000s thus far has been -30 degrees on January 29th, 2004.

*This Morning's low temperature of -46 degrees at International Falls, Minnesota tied for the 5th lowest temperature since records began in 1897 at International Falls.  The coldest minimum temperature on record at International Falls, Minnesota was -55 degrees on January 6th, 1909.

*Record low temperature at International Falls, Minnesota Today, Friday, January 21st, 2011:  Low temperature was -46 degrees which broke the previous record low temperature of -41 degrees set in 1954.

*A power outage affecting 1400 customers occurred Friday Morning in Pine County, Minnesota due to the extreme cold.  The outage affected the communities of Askov, Bruno, and Kerrick.  The outage began around 5:30 AM Today and wasn't restored until around 11:00 AM Today.  A remote line snapped overnight due to the cold weather.

*A water main break occurred Thursday Afternoon in the Duluth Heights neighborhood from North Arlington Ave. between Olive and West Ideal Street.  Ground movement, freezing temperatures, and frost helped to rupture a pipe, 7-8 feet under frozen ground.  The residents that were affected had water again by 4:00 AM Today.

*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*

The National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota has issued a wind chill advisory from 12 AM CST Tonight until 10 AM CST Saturday.  The advisory includes the following counties...In Minnesota:  Koochiching...Itasca...Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...Pine...Carlton...St. Louis...Lake...and Cook.  In Wisconsin:  Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...Iron...Burnett...Washburn...Sawyer...and Price.  Some cities included in the advisory:  International Falls MN...Bigfork MN...Grand Rapids MN...Cass Lake MN...Leader MN...Brainerd MN...Aitkin MN...Pine City MN...Hinckley MN...Moose Lake MN...Cloquet MN...Duluth MN...Floodwood MN...Cotton MN...Hibbing MN...Ely MN...Crane Lake MN...Two Harbors MN...Silver Bay MN...Finland MN...Isabella MN...Lutsen MN...Grand Marais MN...Hovland MN...Grand Portage MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Cable WI...Ashland WI...Butternut WI...Hurley WI...Danbury WI...Minong WI...Shell Lake WI...Hayward WI...Park Falls WI...and Phillips WI.

Impacts:  Wind chill values of 25 below to 40 below zero late Tonight through Saturday Morning.  Frostbite time in open areas will occur in as little as 15 minutes to 30 minutes.  People outdoors in exposed areas could also suffer life threatening hypothermia if they are not dressed properly.

A wind chill advisory means a combination of bitterly cold arctic air and brisk winds will create dangerously cold wind chill values.  Make sure to cover all exposed flesh.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Arctic high pressure of 1022mb has moved into Southeast Illinois as of 4 PM with low pressure of 1012mb centered in Eastern North Dakota.  Frigid temperatures were in place throughout our area Today with skies becoming mostly cloudy.  Areas of snow showers and flurries have been developing across the Northern half of Minnesota Today despite the arctic air in place.  Temperatures Today ranged from around zero to 10 below with winds shifting to the south or southeast under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow continues Today with yesterday's upper level trough now covering Eastern Canada.

Tonight:

An area of snow showers will pass through Northern-Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Evening.  Despite limited moisture, and low amounts of QPF being generated by the forecast models, the snow ratios will be very high (30:1 to 40:1) due to all the cold air in place, the end result to this will be for snow accumulations to possibly reach an inch as this band of snow moves through This Evening.  Low pressure with it's surge of warm advection will exit to our east late Tonight with partly to mostly cloudy skies expected Overnight with some flurries or snow showers continuing in the Arrowhead of Minnesota and also along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin.  Lows Tonight will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero with south or southeast winds turning northwest.  Wind speeds will range from 10-20 mph Tonight.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

High pressure will build into our area from Central Canada with low pressure centers off to our east and west-southwest.  Snow showers or flurries are possible at times along the South Shore of Lake Superior with mainly dry conditions for the rest of our area.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero with lows Tomorrow Night in the teens, 20s, and 30s below zero.  Winds will be out of the north or northwest under 20 mph during this period.

Note:  Lake effect snow accumulations of 1-4" are possible for Ashland and Iron counties Wisconsin from late Tonight through Saturday Evening.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will drop south/southeast through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest from late Sunday into Monday.  Another round of snow showers and flurries look to affect our area during that time frame with perhaps an inch or two of new snow for some locations.  High temperatures on Sunday will be in the single digits to lower teens above zero with lows Sunday Night in the single digits.  Monday's high temperatures will warm to the teens and 20s with lows Monday Night in the single digits.

The potential does exist for another clipper or two to affect our area around the middle and end of next week, also there are trends per long range GFS and EUROPEAN forecast models for more bitter cold temperatures in the Upper Midwest toward next weekend or during the first few days of February.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*
Timing:  12 AM CST Tonight until 10 AM CST Saturday.

.Tonight...  Light snow through 10 PM with up to one inch accumulation.  Partly to mostly cloudy with lingering flurries Overnight.  Low 11 below to 16 below.  Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph early, becoming southwest, then northwest at 10 to 20 mph by dawn.  Wind chill values 25 below to 40 below.

.Saturday...  Very cold.  Partly cloudy.  High 3 below to 2 above.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.  Wind chill values 25 below to 40 below during the Morning.

.Saturday Night...  Frigid.  Mostly clear.  Low 20 below to 25 below.  Wind northwest around 12 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  Afternoon snow showers or flurries possible.  High 3 to 8 above.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers and flurries.  Nearly steady temperatures in the single digits above zero.

.Monday...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers and flurries.  High 13 to 18.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low zero to 5 above.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 15 to 20.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow:

High:  18
Low:  -1

Tim

Thursday, January 20, 2011

1/20/11: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:15 PM CST, Thursday, January 20th, 2011

*EXTREME COLD WARNING*

The National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota has issued an extreme cold warning until 10 AM CST Friday for the following counties in Northern Minnesota:  Koochiching...Itasca...Central and Northern St. Louis.  Some cities included in the warning are:  International Falls MN...Northome MN...Bigfork MN...Grand Rapids MN...Cotton MN...Hibbing MN...Ely MN...and Crane Lake MN...

Impacts:  Low temperatures around 40 below with nearly calm winds developing late Tonight.  Frostbite times are 10 to 20 minutes in these conditions.  The elderly and young children are especially susceptible to the cold.  Frostbite can lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken.  Pets and livestock are also affected by cold temperatures.

An extreme cold warning means dangerous and potentially life threatning extreme cold temperatures are expected for a prolonged period of time.  Frostbite and hypothermia are likely in as short as 10 to 20 minutes if you are exposed to these conditions without proper protection.  Make sure you dress with several layers of clothes designed for extreme cold conditions and avoid sweating if you are outdoors as this can lead to a faster onset of hypothermia.

*WIND CHILL WARNING*

The National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota has issued a wind chill warning until 10 AM CST Friday for the following counties in Northeast Minnesota:  Lake and Cook.  Some cities included in the warning are:  Two Harbors MN...Silver Bay MN...Finland MN...Isabella MN...Lutsen MN...Grand Marais MN...Hovland MN...and Grand Portage MN.

Impacts:  Wind chill values of 40 to 50 below zero, some localized areas could drop to 55 below.  Frostbite times are 10 to 20 minutes in these conditions.

*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*

The National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota has issued a wind chill advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for the following counties:  In Minnesota:  Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...Pine...Carlton...and Southern St. Louis.  In Wisconsin:  Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...Iron...Burnett...Washburn...Sawyer...and Price.

Impacts:  Wind chill values of 25 below to 40 below with frostbite times of 10 to 20 minutes.

A wind chill advisory means a combination of bitterly cold arctic air and brisk winds will create dangerously cold wind chill values.  Make sure to cover all exposed flesh.

3rd longest streak of high temperatures of at least zero degrees ends Today at International Falls, Minnesota.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

381 consecutive days (January 4th, 2010 thru January 19th, 2011) with a maximum temperature of at least zero degrees at International Falls, Minnesota.  This streak ended Today as the high temperature failed to reach zero degrees.  The last time the high temperature was below zero at International Falls was on January 3rd, 2010 with a temperature of -5 degrees.  Note:  Records date back to 1897.

February 2011 outlook for Duluth, Minnesota issued by the Climate Prediction Center on January 20th, 2011.

40% chance for Below Normal Temperatures
33% chance for Above Normal Precipitation

February-April 2011 outlook for Duluth, Minnesota issued by the Climate Prediction Center on January 20th, 2011.

40% chance for Below Normal Temperatures
Equal chances for Above Normal, Below Normal, or Normal Precipitation

Weather Headlines:

*Bitter cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills Tonight.
*Weak systems could bring some flurries/snow showers to the area beginning Friday.
*Moderating temperatures next week, but occasional outbreaks of arctic air continue thru early February.
*Just before 2 PM CST Today, the wind chill at Fargo, North Dakota was -30 degrees while at Miami, Florida the heat index was 85 degrees.

Weather History:

On this date in 1996:  A record low temperature of -35 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 1010mb has moved into Eastern Ontario Province late Today with an arctic front attached to that low clearing our local area before Noon.  High pressure ridge of 1026mb covered the Eastern Dakotas, south through the Central Plains with plenty of bitter cold air pouring south into the Upper Midwest to the east of this high pressure ridge.  Temperatures This Afternoon were only in the single digits below to single digits above zero with northwest or west winds under 20 mph.  Wind chills This Afternoon were generally in the teens and 20s below zero across our local area.

Here are some temperatures and wind chills from Manitoba and Ontario Province at 3 PM CST Today:

Island Lake, Manitoba:  -18/-33
Churchill, Manitoba:  -26/-49
Gillam, Manitoba:  -20/-39
Pickle Lake, Ontario:  -15/-36
Big Trout Lake, Ontario:  -17/-34

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Vigorous 500mb trough has pushed into the Upper Midwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery with a 120 knot upper level jet in Western North Dakota per RUC model analysis.  The strong jet stream over the Northern Plains is helping to drive the coldest air of the season south into the Upper Midwest.

Tonight:

Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills will cover our area with high pressure building into Minnesota.  Clear to partly cloudy skies along with 850mb temperatures around -25/-30 degrees C will lead to Overnight low temperatures in the 20s and 30s below zero with some Northern Minnesota cities dropping to the minus 40s Tonight.  North or west winds will blow at 5-12 mph with a few higher gusts especially near Lake Superior.  Wind chill values will range from 25 to 40 below zero Tonight, with some locations dropping to 40 to 50 below zero Overnight.

Friday and Friday Night:

High pressure exits to our north/east during this period while a weak disturbance sinks south/southeast out of the Northern Plains.  Some flurries or light snow showers could spread into Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Friday Afternoon into Friday Night, but accumulations would remain under an inch.  Highs Tomorrow will range from around -10 to 3 above zero with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits and teens below zero with some minus 20s in Northern Minnesota.  Winds will become south or southeast on Friday with southwest or northwest winds Friday Night.  Wind speeds will generally be under 15 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Occasional flurries or light snow showers are possible on Saturday, and again from Sunday Night into early next week as a couple more weak disturbances move south/southeast out of the Northern Plains, but no major accumulations are expected at this time.  High temperatures on Saturday will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero with highs for Sunday generally in the single digits above zero.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the teens and 20s below zero with lows Sunday Night in the single digits below to single digits above zero.

No real big shift in the upper level pattern is expected right into early February per latest long range model guidance.  There will be some periods of moderating temperatures which will be offset by shots of arctic air from next week into the first week of February.  Any snow we get would be from clipper systems dropping down from Western/Central Canada with no signs of any Southern systems coming this way anytime soon.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*
Timing:  Until 10 AM CST Friday.

.Tonight...  Bitterly cold.  Mostly clear.  Low 25 below to 30 below, a few degrees warmer closer to Lake Superior.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.  Wind chill values 25 below to 45 below.

.Friday...  Frigid.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High zero to 5 below.  Wind becoming south to southeast around 12 mph.  Wind chill values 25 below to 45 below during the Morning.

.Friday Night...  Very cold.  Variable clouds.  Flurries.  Low 8 below to 13 below.  Wind becoming southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  Flurries.  High 3 below to 2 above.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 below to 20 below.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 3 to 8 above.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 3 below to 2 above.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High 10 to 15.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  18
Low:  -2

Tim

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

1/19/11: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:06 PM CST, Wednesday, January 19th, 2011

Weather headlines:

*Major surge of arctic air Thursday-Friday.
*Setup thru early February features several clippers and occasional outbreaks of arctic air for the Upper Midwest.

*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*

The National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota has issued a wind chill advisory which is in effect from 6 AM CST Thursday until 12 PM CST Thursday.  Counties in Minnesota included in the advisory are:  Koochiching...Itasca...Cass...Crow Wing...Northern Aitkin...Central and Northern St. Louis.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  International Falls MN...Northome MN...Bigfork MN...Grand Rapids MN...Cass Lake MN...Walker MN...Leader MN...Brainerd MN...Hill City MN...Cotton MN...Hibbing MN...Ely MN...and Crane Lake MN. 

*Wind chills of 25 below to 35 below are expected Thursday Morning in the advisory area.

Impacts:  Frost bite time of 10 to 20 minutes under these conditions.  The elderly and young children are especially susceptible to the cold.  Frostbite can lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken.  Pets and livestock are also affected by the cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills.

A wind chill advisory means a combination of bitterly cold arctic air and brisk winds will create dangerously cold wind chill values.  If you must venture outdoors be sure to cover all exposed flesh as any exposed flesh can freeze in 15 to 25 minutes with wind chill values from 25 below to 40 below.  This may result in frost bite and hypothermia if precautions are not taken.

Low temperature report for Wednesday, January 19th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

International Falls, MN:  -26 degrees
Ely, MN:  -18 degrees
Orr, MN:  -18 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  -20 degrees
Littlefork, MN:  -19 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  -23 degrees
Babbitt, MN:  -23 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure ridge of 1024-1026mb extended from the Southern tip of Hudson Bay to Western Iowa while an arctic front was dropping south/east out of the Manitoba Lakes region.  Scattered snow showers and flurries which moved through parts of our area This Morning with accumulations under an inch for most places, although a few inches of snow did fall along the North Shore of Lake Superior, affecting portions of coastal Lake and Cook counties.  The snow showers moved out before Noon with partly to mostly cloudy skies covering our area This Afternoon.  High temperatures Today ranged from around 8 to 16 degrees, the mildest readings in Northwestern Wisconsin.  Winds Today were out of the southwest under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow has relaxed a bit Today per water vapor satellite imagery, but this is only a brief change.  A potent upper level trough to our northwest will dig south/east into the Upper Midwest by Thursday which will sharpen the northwesterly flow once again.  A 140 knot upper level jet was in place Today per RUC model analysis across Western Canada or to the west-southwest of the approaching upper trough.

Tonight:

An arctic front will move into our area by dawn and will exit the local area before Noon Thursday.  A one to three hour period of light snow showers and flurries will occur as this boundary moves through later Tonight.  Snowfall accumulations will be light, generally less than an inch.  Low temperatures will be in the single digits and teens below zero, but temperatures may rise a few degrees just ahead of the cold front Overnight.  Winds will be out of the southwest under 20 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Widespread bitterly cold temperatures and dangerous wind chill values will cover our area during this period.  850mb temperatures are forecast to plummate to between -25 to -30 degrees C with high temperatures on Thursday in the single digits to around 10 above zero which will drop to the single digits to low teens below zero during the Afternoon.  Low temperatures Thursday Night will be in the 20s and 30s below zero with some minus 40s even possible in Northern Minnesota.  North or northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph on Thursday will decrease to 5 to 15 mph Thursday Night.  Wind chill values will be in the 15 below to 30 below range on Thursday, and from 30 below to 55 below zero for Thursday Night.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected on Thursday with clear to partly cloudy skies Thursday Night.

Note:  Occasional lake effect snow showers will develop along the South Shore of Lake Superior Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with new snowfall accumulations of 1-4" possible, mainly in Ashland and Iron counties.

Extended Forecast:

Clipper parade looks to set back up once again this weekend through next week, although none of the systems look very strong at this point, and it's possible that the bulk of the accumulating snow that occurs with each clipper stays to our west and south.  One weak system could spread some flurries or snow showers into our area Friday and early Saturday.  A second one may hit sometime early next week followed by another one sometime late next week.  High temperatures Friday and Saturday will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero with lows Friday Night in the single digits and teens below zero with lows Saturday Night in the teens and 20s below zero.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries possible at times.  Low 2 below to 7 below.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Breezy and very cold.  Snow showers or flurries possible during the Morning.  Snowfall accumulations under one inch.  Becoming partly cloudy.  High 2 to 7 above with temperatures falling through the single digits below zero during the Afternoon.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Bitterly cold with dangerous wind chills.  Mostly clear.  Low 25 below to 30 below.  Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.  Wind chill values of 40 below to 50 below.

.Friday...  Very cold.  Partly sunny.  Afternoon flurries possible.  High zero to 5 below.

.Friday Night...  Variable cloudiness.  Flurries possible.  Low 7 below to 12 below.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High zero to 5 above.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 12 below to 17 below.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 3 to 8 above.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  18
Low:  -2

Tim

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

1/18/11: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:08 PM CST, Tuesday, January 18th, 2011

Snowfall report from Sunday and Monday, January 16th-17th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota. 

Note:  Highest totals are in bold.

International Falls, MN (Koochiching county)  1.9"
8 miles north-northeast of Cook, MN (St. Louis county)  2.0"
7 miles northwest of Two Harbors, MN (Lake county)  3.1"
2 miles south of Northome, MN (Itasca county)  3.1"
Babbitt, MN (St. Louis county)  3.2"
2 miles east of Finland, MN (Lake county)  6.2"
Cotton, MN (St. Louis county)  1.7"
Kabetogama, MN (St. Louis county)  3.3"
Little Marais, MN (Lake county)  5.7"
Carlton, MN (Carlton county)  3.0"
Ely, MN (St. Louis county)  3.0"
Virginia, MN (St. Louis county)  4.5"
6 miles south of Ashland, WI (Ashland county)  3.0"
3 miles northeast of Askov, MN (Pine county)  1.3"
Schroeder, MN (Cook county)  5.0"
Littlefork, MN (Koochiching county)  2.2"
Togo, MN (Itasca county)  3.5"
Beaver Bay, MN (Lake county)  3.0"
11 miles northeast of Grand Marais, MN (Cook county)  17.0"
2 miles east-northeast of Hovland, MN (Cook county)  4.5"
Devil Track Lake, MN (Cook county)  11.0"
9 miles northeast of Grand Marais, MN (Cook county)  12.0"
Lutsen, MN (Cook county)  6.0"
Silver Bay, MN (Lake county)  7.0"

Upson, WI (Iron county)  8.5"
Saxon, WI (Iron county)  8.0"
Maple, WI (Douglas county)  2.3"
Gile, WI (Iron county)  9.8"
Mellen, WI (Ashland county)  4.0"
Montreal, WI (Iron county)  6.0"

5 miles northwest of Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  1.2" measured at the National Weather Service.

Duluth, Minnesota climate summary through mid-January, 2011.

*Average temperature thru the 16th:  6.8 degrees/1.3 degrees Below Normal
*Precipitation total thru the 17th:  0.62"/0.01" Above Normal
*Snowfall total thru the 17th:  11.6"/0.5" Above Normal

Snowfall total from December 1st thru January 17th, 2011:  29.7"/3.7" Above Normal
Snowfall total so far this winter:  65.3"/22.4" Above Normal

Weather History:

On this date in 1994...A record low temperature of -33 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Mostly cloudy skies were in place in Northwest Wisconsin, back through the Twin Ports, northeast through coastal Lake county Minnesota with mostly sunny skies in Northcentral Minnesota.  High temperatures Today were in the single digits with teens from Hayward and Ashland, southeast through Park Falls.  Scattered lake effect snow showers have been affecting some parts of the South Shore of Lake Superior Today with some heavier snow squalls at times, especially in Iron county.  Winds Today were variable or northerly in direction under 15 mph.  Surface map as of 3 PM featured high pressure of 1026mb centered to the west-northwest of Minnesota.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow continued Today per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.  The next disturbance embedded in this NW flow aloft was dropping southeast through the Dakotas This Afternoon.

Tonight:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found across our area with scattered lake effect snow showers and flurries along the South Shore of Lake Superior with additional accumulations of 1-2" possible in a few locations.  An area of snow showers in the Dakotas This Afternoon will head E-SE Tonight and could affect southern parts of our area from Cass Lake to Duluth and points south Overnight.  Snowfall accumulations should remain under an inch for these areas.  Lows Tonight will be in the single digits and teens below zero with some 20s below in Northern Minnesota.  Winds Tonight will be variable under 15 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

A weak disturbance will exit to our south/east on Wednesday with an arctic front pushing southeast into Northern Minnesota by late Wednesday Night.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected during this period with a few snow showers or flurries possible on Wednesday which will be followed by another round of snow showers or flurries by late Wednesday Night in Northern Minnesota.  Snowfall accumulations through this period should remain under an inch.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the single digits to around 10 above zero with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits below to above zero with some minus teens possible in Northern Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the west or southwest at 10-20 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Arctic front will push through Northwest Wisconsin/Eastern Minnesota Thursday Morning with arctic high pressure building into the Upper Midwest by Thursday Night.  Snow showers or flurries with less than an inch of accumulation will accompany the cold front, then dry conditions will return for Thursday Afternoon and Thursday Night.  850mb temperatures are forecast to crash to the -20 to -30 degree C range with highs on Thursday generally in the single digits with lows Thursday Night in the teens and 20s below zero with some minus 30s possible in Northern Minnesota.  Northerly winds will also increase on Thursday and could lead to some dangerously cold wind chills perhaps as low as 35 to 50 below zero Thursday Night.  Note:  Wind chill headlines will probably be needed for Thursday Night based on current model data.  Arctic high pressure shifts to our north/east on Friday with a weak clipper system dropping south/southeast through the Northern Plains.  Some snow showers or flurries could spread into our local area depending on the track of this system.  Highs on Friday will be in the single digits below to above zero with lows Friday Night in the single digits and teens below zero.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Light snow showers or flurries at times.  Accumulations under an inch.  Low 2 below to 7 below.  Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Wednesday...  Flurries or snow showers possible, mainly during the Morning.  Accumulations under an inch.  Partly sunny.  High 3 to 8 above.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Late night flurries or snow showers possible.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 3 below to 8 below.  Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Snow showers or flurries during the Morning.  Partly sunny.  High 2 to 7 above. 

.Thursday Night...  Frigid.  Partly cloudy.  Low 17 below to 22 below.  Lowest wind chills of 35 below to 45 below zero.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 3 below to 2 above.

.Friday Night...  Variable cloudiness.  Flurries possible.  Low 6 below to 11 below.

.Saturday...  Flurries possible.  Partly sunny.  High 5 to 10.

Normal temperatures for Today:

High:  17
Low:  -2

Tim