Friday, December 31, 2010

12/31/10: NEW YEARS EVE HEADLINE INFORMATION

Issued at 2:33 PM CST, Friday, December 31st, 2010

.All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

Timing:

Until 12 PM CST Saturday.

Counties included in the warning:

Koochiching MN...Itasca MN...Cass MN...Crow Wing MN...Northern Aitkin MN...Central and Northern St. Louis MN.

Some cities included in the warning:

International Falls MN...Littlefork MN...Bigfork MN...Togo MN...Grand Rapids MN...Cass Lake MN...Walker MN...Leader MN...Brainerd MN...Hill City MN...Hibbing MN...Cotton MN...Ely MN...and Crane Lake MN.

Discussion:

Snow will spread north into the Iron Range, Brainerd Lakes, and borderland region This Evening with snow continuing Overnight before tapering off to light snow and flurries on Saturday.  Total snowfall accumulations by Saturday will range from 5-8".

Main impacts:  Heavier bands of snow with hourly snowfall rates up to one inch an hour combined with gusty northeast winds causing visibilities to fall to around a half mile Tonight.  Driving conditions will become difficult in Northern Minnesota Tonight with roads becoming snow covered and slippery.

A winter storm warning means heavy accumulation of snow will occur.  Expect extremely slippery and dangerous snow covered roads.  If you travel, exercise extreme caution and allow extra time to reach your destination.  Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time.  Have a working cell phone in case you become stranded.  Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle, including a flashlight, food, and water.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Timing:

Until 6 AM CST Saturday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Cook MN...Lake MN...Southern St. Louis MN...Carlton MN...Pine MN...and Southern Aitkin MN.

Some cities included in the advisory:

Grand Portage MN...Hovland MN...Grand Marais MN...Isabella MN...Finland MN...Silver Bay MN...Two Harbors MN...Duluth MN...Floodwood MN...Cloquet MN...Moose Lake MN...McGrath MN...and Aitkin MN.

Discussion:

Snow will spread north through the advisory area This Evening, the snow could be moderate to heavy at times with visibilities as low as a half mile due to falling and blowing snow.  Snow will taper off during the late Evening and Overnight hours from south to north.  Total snowfall accumulations of 2-4" with isolated 5" totals are expected by early Saturday.

Reduce speed and allow extra time to reach your destination.  Use low beam headlights in snow.  Exercise caution approaching intersections and stop lights.  Stopping distances will increase greatly on snow covered roads.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Timing:

Until 6 AM CST Saturday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Douglas WI...Burnett WI...and Washburn WI.

Some cities included in the advisory:

Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Danbury WI...Grantsburg WI...Minong WI...and Spooner WI.

Discussion:

Snow will develop This Evening before ending late Tonight.  Some sleet or freezing rain could mix with the snow.  Total snowfall accumulations of 1-3" are expected by late Tonight with minimal accumulations of ice.  Visibilities could drop to a mile or less at times This Evening as the snow bands move through.

Tim

12/31/10: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 1:03 PM CST, Friday, December 31st, 2010

Final snowfall reports from the winter storm that hit Northern Minnesota on Thursday, December 30th, 2010.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

7 miles south of Bigfork, MN (Itasca county)  12.1"
15 miles north of Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca county)  11.0"
Walker, MN (Cass county)  9.5"
Chisholm, MN (St. Louis county)  9.0"
5 miles north of Virginia, MN (St. Louis county)  8.0"
5 miles east of Leader, MN (Cass county)  7.0"
International Falls, MN (Koochiching county)  6.6"
Breezy Point, MN (Crow Wing county)  6.5"
Ely, MN (St. Louis county)  6.2"
Nashwauk, MN (Itasca county)  6.1"
Embarrass, MN (St. Louis county)  6.0"
Pillager, MN (Cass county)  5.5"
Hoyt Lakes, MN (St. Louis county)  5.0"
17 miles northwest of Saginaw, MN (St. Louis county)  4.0"
4 miles northeast of Nisswa, MN (Crow Wing county)  4.0"
Cotton, MN (St. Louis county)  3.9"

*Record Event*

0.83" of precipitation (most of it rain) fell at Duluth, Minnesota on Thursday, December 30th, 2010.  This broke the 24 hour precipitation record for the 30th of December, the previous record was set in 1871 when 0.81" of precipitation fell.

Weather tidbits:

*The high temperature has been at or above 32 degrees for 3 days in a row at Duluth, Minnesota (12/29-12/31)  The last time we had three consecutive days at or above freezing was from November 28th-30th.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Thursday's low has moved into Eastern Lake Superior with a pressure of 1006mb early This Afternoon while the next area of low pressure with a pressure of 1002 mb heads into Southwestern Iowa.  Mostly cloudy skies covered our local area at midday with temperatures ranging from the 20s from Hayward to Park Falls and south from there with single digits and teens common in far Northwest Wisconsin, and Northern-Eastern Minnesota.  Winds were out of the north or east under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A powerful negatively tilted storm was lifting N/NE out of the Central Plains.  500mb low was centered over the Southwest half of Nebraska early This Afternoon with a strong upper level trough with 120-180 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls covering the Central Plains per RUC model analysis.  A potent mid level jet >100 knots and a 140 knot upper level jet were in place This Afternoon across portions of the Central Plains per RUC model analysis.

Tonight:

Surface and upper level areas of low pressure will lift north out of Iowa and into the Upper Midwest while a powerful 500mb trough lifts northeast out of the Western High Plains.  This storm will be a quick hitter for most of our local area as the main deformation snow-band(steadiest snow)sets up over the Dakotas and portions of Western Minnesota.  For our area, will have a low level jet increasing to 30-45 knots north/east of this system with warm and moist advection spreading north across our area Tonight.  Strong lift/forcing associated with the low/upper trough will cause bands of snow which will develop to our south while lifting north through Midnight.  Some of this snow could be moderate to heavy at times with one inch per hour snowfall rates quite possible especially in Northern-Eastern Minnesota.  A layer of warm air aloft with 850mb temperatures climbing to around zero degrees C will lift N-NW through Northwest Wisconsin and far Eastern Minnesota for a time early This Evening and this could result in a mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain in those areas, at this time it looks like any mixed precipitation would remain south-southeast of the Twin Ports.  Also for This Evening, there is a remote possibility for an isolated thunderstorm in Northwestern Wisconsin.

By late Tonight, the main bands of snow should be pushing into northwest-northern parts of our local area while Northwest Wisconsin, the Twin Ports, Brainerd Lakes, and Eastern parts of Minnesota see some lingering light snow and flurries.

Temperatures Tonight will vary greatly, expect 20s and lower 30s in Northwest Wisconsin while temperatures climb into the 20s in far Eastern Minnesota and the Twin Ports.  Single digits will continue elsewhere.  By dawn Saturday, arctic air will push in from the southwest as low pressure reaches Northern-Northeast Minnesota.  Temperatures by dawn will range from around 5 below to 10 above zero across our area.

Winds This Evening will be out of the east at 10-20 mph with higher gusts.  Overnight, winds will shift to the south in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota with east or north winds for the rest of our area.  Wind speeds will continue to be in the 10-20 mph range late Tonight with some higher gusts.

Note:  Falling snow and blowing snow will lead to poor visibility at times, especially as heavier snow bands move through This Evening.  Visibilities could drop to around a half mile in some locations.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

Powerful storm with it's surface and upper level low pressure system will pull away from the Upper Midwest during this period.  Cold temperatures and brisk winds with areas of blowing snow will be common Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with lingering snow showers and flurries, especially on Saturday.  Another 1-2" of snow could accumulate Tomorrow, mainly in Northern Minnesota.  Highs Tomorrow which for some of us will occur at Midnight Tonight will range from the 20s to lower 30s in Northwest Wisconsin, Twin Ports, and Eastern Minnesota before temperatures drop into the single digits and teens, elsewhere expect highs to be in the single digits above zero.  Low temperatures Saturday Night will range from 10 below to around 5 above zero.  Winds will be out of the north, west, or southwest during this period at 10-20 mph with higher gusts.

Note:  Very cold wind chills ranging from 5 below to 20 below zero will develop in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from late Tonight through Saturday Night.

Total snowfall accumulations from Tonight and Saturday:

Northwest Wisconsin:  1-2" with isolated 3" amounts, mainly in Burnett and Douglas counties
Eastern Minnesota:  2-4"
Northeast Minnesota:  2-5"
Northcentral Minnesota:  5-8"

Extended Forecast:

Although no big storms are on the horizon from Sunday through the middle of next week, there will be some minor disturbances dropping south/east through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest as a N-NW 500mb flow develops.  Snow showers and flurries will be possible at times in our area especially by next week.  High temperatures will be in the single digits to around 10 above zero Sunday and Monday with lows in the single digits, teens, to lower 20s below zero Sunday Night and Monday Night.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Timing:  Until 6 AM CST Saturday.

.Tonight...  Occasional light snow showers or flurries through 5 PM, little accumulation expected.  Snow between 5 PM-11 PM with heavier snow showers possible.  Total accumulations of 2-4".  Windy with areas of blowing snow.  Temperatures rising into the 20s through Midnight, then falling to 5 to 10 above by dawn.  East wind at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph This Evening, wind becoming south at 10 to 20 mph Overnight.

.New Years Day...  Breezy and cold.  Mostly cloudy with occasional snow showers and flurries.  Additional accumulations less than one inch.  High 23 to 28 which will occur just after Midnight, then temperatures holding steady in the single digits during the day.  Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts which will cause areas of blowing snow.  Lowest wind chills of 10 below to 20 below.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Cold.  Low 1 below to 6 below.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.  Lowest wind chills around 20 below zero.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 5 to 10.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 8 below to 13 below.

.Monday...  Snow showers or flurries possible.  High 5 to 10.

.Monday Night...  Flurries possible.  Variable clouds.  Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 5 to 10.

Normal temperatures for Today:

High:  18
Low:    0

Tim

Thursday, December 30, 2010

12/30/10: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:56 PM CST, Thursday, December 30th, 2010

Weather headlines:

*Blizzard number one ongoing This Evening over Western-Northern Minnesota...
*Blizzard number two ready to hit in pretty much the same areas late Friday Afternoon through Friday Night...

Snowfall reports from Today's storm.  Note:  Snow continues to fall This Evening in Northcentral Minnesota so these totals listed below will continue to rise.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

7 miles south of Bigfork, MN (Itasca county)  7.3"
Walker, MN (Cass county)  6.0"
8 miles southwest of Remer, MN (Cass county)  4.0"
1 mile west of Hill City, MN (Aitkin county)  3.0"
Nashwauk, MN (Itasca county)  2.8"
Littlefork, MN (Koochiching county)  2.0"
15 miles south-southeast of McGregor, MN (Aitkin county)  3.0"
Cotton, MN (St. Louis county)  1.8"
Hibbing, MN (St. Louis county)  1.5"
Alborn, MN (St. Louis county)  1.5"

Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  0.4" measured at the National Weather Service.  Rain turned to snow late This Afternoon, but has since switched back to rain.

Incredible temperature contrasts across Minnesota Today.

4 PM CST temperatures:

Twin Cities, MN:  40 degrees
Bemidji, MN:  16 degrees
Hallock, MN:  1 degree
Moorhead, MN:  7 degrees
International Falls, MN:  13 degrees
Duluth, MN:  34 degrees

Note:  At 7 PM CST This Evening the temperature was 46 degrees at Winona, Minnesota (southeast part of the state) while it was 1 with a 23 below wind chill at Hallock, Minnesota (northwest part of the state)

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Strong area of low pressure of 991mb was centered in Southwestern Minnesota as of 6 PM CST with an arctic front stretching from near Ely toward Lake Mille Lacs.  A dangerous winter storm with heavy snow and blizzard conditions developed This Afternoon and is ongoing early This Evening in Westcentral Minnesota with heavy snow also falling in much of Northcentral Minnesota.  The rain/snow line as of 6 PM CST stretched from about Lake Mille Lacs toward Forest Center, Minnesota.  West of that line is where the winter storm was occurring, south-east of that line unseasonable warmth and rainy/drizzly conditions were occurring.  A tremendous amount of moisture for this time of year was in place across the Upper Midwest Today with PWS ranging from 0.50-0.75"!  Also, the 50 degree dewpoint contour has made it as far north as far Southern Iowa This Evening with mid 40 dewpoints reaching as far north as Cedar Rapids, Iowa!  A very tight temperature gradient has become established throughout our local area Today with highs in the 30s and lower 40s across Northwest Wisconsin, the Twin Ports and Eastern Minnesota with single digits and teens from International Falls to Walker.  Winds Today were out of the south, east, or north at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A powerful 500mb trough covered the Western U.S. with 90 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls occurring in the Southwest U.S. This Evening per RUC model analysis along with a 120 knot upper level jet streak in Western Nevada which is adding energy to this strong upper trough.  A southwest flow aloft was in place across the Plains and Upper Midwest out ahead of this upper level trough with a lead system continuing to push northeast through the Northern Plains and Western Great Lakes This Evening.

Tonight:

Dangerous conditions will continue Tonight across Northcentral Minnesota where snow, heavy at times with one inch an hour snowfall rates persisting until around 2AM, thereafter expect  lingering snow although intensities should start to decrease.  Northwest Wisconsin will continue to have areas of drizzle, light rain, and locally dense fog Tonight while locations from Northeast into Eastcentral Minnesota continue to have a mix bag of weather, ranging from snow to sleet to rain to some dense fog...The precipitation in Eastern-Northeast Minnesota should gradually turn over to flurries and light snow late Tonight as colder air spreads into those areas behind strong low pressure which will reach Northwestern Wisconsin Overnight.  Low temperatures Tonight will range from the 30s in Northwest Wisconsin to the single digits below to above zero west of the Iron Range, areas in between-including the Twin Ports and Interstate 35 corridor will have lows in the teens adn 20s.  Winds Tonight will run the full range of compass directions from north to east to south to west.  Wind speeds will range from 10-20 mph.

Note:  The combination of falling and blowing snow will result in near whiteout conditions at times through at least Midnight Tonight from the Brainerd Lakes area, through Grand Rapids and Bigfork, east to Hibbing and Ely, and northwest to International Falls.

Note:  Standing water from melting snow and rain will likely turn to ice by dawn Friday in Northeast-Eastcentral Minnesota as temperatures drop after Midnight.

Note:  Snowfall accumulations from Tonight's storm will range from 6-12" along and west-northwest of a line from Brainerd to Hibbing to Ely.  Snow accumulations will be much less for Northeast and Eastern Minnesota with generally 1-3" expected, while locations closer to Lake Superior see little if any snow accumulation Tonight.

Friday and Friday Night:

A temporary break in the storminess will take place on Friday as Tonight's low pulls northeast away from our local area while the next storm which gave snow and sleet to Phoenix, Arizona Today pulls into the Central Plains Friday Morning.  For Friday, expect mostly cloudy skies.  Lingering light snow and flurries should end early in the day in Northern Minnesota with little additional accumulation expected.  Patchy freezing drizzle or flurries are possible Tomorrow in Eastern Minnesota with some drizzle or fog in Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs on Friday will range from the 30s in Northwest Wisconsin with single digits from Leader to Hibbing to Ely and points west from there.  Winds Tomorrow will become north or east at 10-20 mph.

For Friday Night:  Intense upper level low will lift northeast out of Nebraska while a deep surface low moves almost due north through the Eastern half of Minnesota.  Strong lift will develop ahead of the upper low/trough which will likely cause an area of heavy snow to develop in Central-Eastern Minnesota which will then lift off to the north.  It still appears that Northwest Wisconsin, the Twin Ports and Interstate 35 corridor will get dry slotted once this band of heavy precipitation moves through.  The main axis of heavy snow with substanial accumulations appears to be setting up from Brainerd to Hibbing, including the Arrowhead of Minnesota, and west through Cass Lake, Bigfork, and International Falls.  Those locations have the potential of picking up another 6-10" of snow Friday Night from this second storm.  2-5" of snow is possible from the Twin Ports through the I-35 corridor, and also in Northwestern Wisconsin.  There is also a possibility for some sleet or freezing rain across Northwest Wisconsin and far Eastern Minnesota late Friday Afternoon, but at this time it doesn't look like ice accumulations would be very significant.

Low temperatures Friday Night will be in the single digits below to above zero with gusty east winds, turning north or south late in the night.  Wind speeds of 15-30 mph will be common with higher gusts.  Near whiteout conditions will develop at times Friday Night due to the falling and blowing snow.

Note:  Additional winter weather headlines will likely be issued for the Friday Night storm.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure exits the area to the northeast on Saturday, wrap around snow showers and flurries along with gusty winds will continue on Saturday, although any additional accumulations should be under an inch.  Temperatures on Saturday will be in the single digits below to above zero, but 20s and 30s are possible just after Midnight Tomorrow Night in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin before the arctic air moves in.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the single digits and teens below zero.  Mainly dry conditions are expected for our local area Sunday and Sunday Night with highs in the single digits below to around 10 above zero with lows in the single digits, teens, and lower 20s below zero.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Timing:  Until 6 AM CST Friday.

.Tonight...  Rain and snow Inland from Lake Superior changing to light snow, freezing drizzle, and flurries.  Rain closer to Lake Superior changing to flurries and light freezing drizzle Overnight.  Areas of fog.  Total snow accumulations around an inch over the hill, little if any accumulation closer to Lake Superior.  Low 15 to 20, a little warmer near Lake Superior.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph, becoming north Overnight.

.New Years Eve...  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy freezing drizzle or flurries.  High 30 to 35 early with temperatures falling to the 20s.  Wind north at 10 to 20 mph, becoming northeast during the Afternoon.

.Friday Night...  Windy with snow through Midnight with some light snow and flurries after Midnight.  Sleet or freezing rain possible early.  Total snowfall accumulations of 2-5".  Low 5 to 10.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph during the Evening, wind becoming south at 10 to 20 mph late.  Areas of blowing and drifting snow especially through Midnight.

.New Years Day...  Breezy and cold.  Occasional light snow and flurries.  Additional accumulations under one inch.  High 25 to 30 early with temperatures falling to the single digits.  Wind becoming northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Very cold.  Becoming partly cloudy.  Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 5 to 10.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Monday...  Snow showers or flurries possible.  High 10 to 15.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow:

High:  18
Low:    0

Tim

12/30/10: UPDATED STORM INFORMATION

Issued at 5:06 PM CST, Thursday, December 30th, 2010

.All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

Timing:

Until 6 AM CST Friday.

Counties included in the warning:

Koochiching MN...Itasca MN...Cass MN...Crow Wing MN...Northern Aitkin MN...Central and Northern St. Louis MN.

Some cities included in the warning:

International Falls MN...Littlefork MN...Bigfork MN...Togo MN...Grand Rapids MN...Cass Lake MN...Walker MN...Leader MN...Brainerd MN...Hill City MN...Cotton MN...Hibbing MN...Ely MN...and Crane Lake MN.

Discussion:

Strong low pressure was centered in Southwestern Minnesota at 4 PM CST Today, this low will track northeast and will reach Northwest Wisconsin by late Tonight.  Snow, heavy at times will continue through Midnight in Northcentral Minnesota with winds gusting to 20 mph at times.  This will cause visibilities to drop to a quarter mile or less in falling and blowing snow.  Snowfall rates around an inch per hour will occur This Evening.  Snow will continue Overnight, but should decrease in intensity and begin to taper off from southwest to northeast.

Total snowfall accumulations of 5-10" are expected by early Friday Morning.

A winter storm warning means heavy accumulation of snow will occur.  Expect extremely slippery and dangerous snow covered roads.  If you travel, exercise extreme caution and allow extra time to reach your destination.  Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time.  Have a working cell phone in case you become stranded.  Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle, including a flashlight, food, and water.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Timing:

Until 6 AM CST Friday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Southern Aitkin MN...Carlton MN...Southern St. Louis MN...Lake MN...and Cook MN.

Some cities included in the advisory:

Aitkin MN...McGrath MN...Moose Lake MN...Cloquet MN...Duluth MN...Floodwood MN...Two Harbors MN...Silver Bay MN...Finland MN...Isabella MN...Lutsen MN...Grand Marais MN...Hovland MN...and Grand Portage MN.

Discussion:

A variety of precipitation will continue This Evening from the Interstate 35 corridor through the Twin Ports and Arrowhead of Minnesota.  Rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow will gradually turn to snow away from Lake Superior This Evening with some light snow continuing after Midnight.  The precipitation closer to Lake Superior will fall as rain and drizzle, but some sleet and snow will likely mix in at times before precipitation changes to some light snow later in the night.

Total snowfall accumulations of 1-4" are expected in the advisory area by late Tonight with the greatest amounts inland from Lake Superior.

Other impacts:  Temperatures in the lower to middle 30s This Evening will fall into the teens to around 20 degrees after Midnight.  Any standing water will turn to ice after Midnight.

A winter weather advisory for snow means roads, sidewalks, and other untreated exposed surfaces will become slippery and hazardous.  Snow accumulations will also make roads snow covered and icy.  Use extreme caution when walking or driving and be especially aware of bridges, overpasses, ramps, and other elevated surfaces.

Note:  A second storm is expected to hit the Northland late Friday Afternoon through Saturday Morning.  Additional winter storm warnings and advisories will likely be needed with this next event, these headlines will be issued either late Tonight or Friday Morning.  At this time it appears that the heaviest snow will fall west-northwest of the Twin Ports.

Tim

12/30/10: THURSDAY MORNING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE STATEMENT

Issued at 7:34 AM CST, Thursday, December 30th, 2010

.All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

Timing:

Until 6 AM CST Friday.

Counties included in the warning:

Koochiching MN...Itasca MN...Cass MN...Crow Wing MN...Northern Aitkin MN...Central and Northern St. Louis MN.

Some cities included in the warning:

International Falls MN...Littlefork MN...Bigfork MN...Togo MN...Grand Rapids MN...Cass Lake MN...Walker MN...Leader MN...Brainerd MN...Hill City MN...Hibbing MN...Cotton MN...Ely MN...and Crane Lake MN....

Discussion:

Areas of dense fog along with occasional light snow and light freezing rain will be found in Northcentral Minnesota through early This Afternoon before precipitation becomes heavier from mid-Afternoon through Tonight.  Mixed precipitation will turn to snow from northwest to southeast with heavy snowfall rates of 1" an hour developing late This Afternoon and This Evening.  Strong low pressure responsible for this wintry weather will move from the Central Plains to near Duluth Minnesota Tonight.

Expect visibilities to drop to a quarter mile or less in areas of dense fog and mixed precipitation This Morning, and then from heavy snow This Afternoon and Tonight.  In addition to the falling snow, northerly winds will increase to 20 mph which will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

Total snowfall accumulations by early Friday Morning will range from 5-8" with locally higher amounts up to 10".  Ice accumulations of a couple hundreths of an inch are also possible Today.

Other impacts:  Temperatures which will start around 30 degrees or a little above will drop to the single digits by late Tonight. 

A winter storm warning for wintry mixed precipitation means heavy accumulation of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will occur.  Expect extremely slippery and dangerous snow and ice covered roads.  If you travel, exercise extreme caution and allow extra time to reach your destination.  Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time.  Have a working cell phone in case you become stranded.  Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle, including a flashlight, food, and water.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Timing:

Until 6 AM CST Friday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Southern Aitkin MN...Carlton MN...Southern St. Louis MN...Lake MN...and Cook MN.

Some cities included in the advisory:

Aitkin MN...McGrath MN...Moose Lake MN...Cloquet MN...Floodwood MN...Duluth MN...Two Harbors MN...Silver Bay MN...Finland MN...Isabella MN...Lutsen MN...Grand Marais MN...Hovland MN...and Grand Portage MN.

Discussion:

Expect a variety of weather Today and Tonight from the Arrowhead of Minnesota to the North Shore south through the Twin Ports and I-35 corridor, west through Aitkin.  Dense fog reducing visibilities to a quarter mile or less will continue Today along with areas of light drizzle and light freezing drizzle.  Heavier precipitation will develop This Afternoon and will continue This Evening with a mixture of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow expected which will gradually change over to snow from west to east Tonight before the precipitation ends later in the night.

A light coating of ice will accumulate Today especially on untreated surfaces, use extreme caution in parking lots, secondary roads, driveways, and sidewalks.

A wide range in snowfall totals of 1-5" can be expected by the time this storm departs late Tonight.  The least amount of snow is expected along the I-35 corridor through the Twin Ports and North Shore of Lake Superior with greater totals expected from Floodwood down toward Aitkin/Lake Mille Lacs, and to the Arrowhead of Minnesota.

Other impacts:  Temperatures in the 30s Today will drop into the teens Overnight.  Any standing water will turn to ice late Tonight.

A winter weather advisory for freezing drizzle and dense fog means roads, sidewalks, and other untreated exposed surfaces will become slick and hazardous due to a light glazing of ice.  Snow accumulations will also make roads snow covered and icy.  Use extreme caution when walking or driving and be especially aware of bridges, overpasses, ramps, and other elevated surfaces.

Tim

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

12/29/10: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:24 PM CST, Wednesday, December 29th, 2010

...MULTIPLE WINTER STORMS TO AFFECT THE NORTHLAND...
...A variety of potentially dangerous weather elements to contend with through early Saturday...

Weather tidbits:

*High temperature of 35 degrees at International Falls, Minnesota on December 28th, 2010 was the first time since November 30th, 2010 with a maximum temperature at or above freezing.

*High temperature of 34 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota on December 29th, 2010 was the first time since November 30th, 2010 with a maximum temperature at or above freezing.

Weather History:

On this date in 1999:  A record high temperature of 46 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Another beautiful winter day with high temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 30s from Downtown Duluth and Superior through Northwest Wisconsin with upper 20s to lower 30s in Northern and Eastern Minnesota.  Some high level clouds have been moving through the area at times Today, otherwise skies have been mostly sunny with some haze.  Winds Today were generally out of the south, southwest, or southeast under 20 mph.  Surface map as of 4 PM featured low pressure of 984 mb centered in Western South Dakota with a 986 mb low centered in Eastern Colorado.  A cold front stretched from Northwestern Minnesota to Southeastern Wyoming, temperatures behind this front were much colder Today with readings ranging from the teens and 20s in North Dakota and Montana with single digit temperatures in Alberta and Saskatchewan Province.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Deep 500mb trough was pushing east through the Western U.S. per water vapor satellite imagery.  A southwest flow aloft was developing Today in the Plains and Upper Midwest to the east of this upper trough.  Widespread 12 hour 500mb height falls of 90-150 meters were occurring Today across the Western U.S. per RUC model analysis while a 140+ knot upper level jet was in place just off-shore of the U.S. West Coast.

Tonight:

Widespread low clouds and dense fog will head north out of Southern Minnesota Tonight, these conditions will overspread our local area This Evening.  Visibilities in the fog could drop to zero from time to time.  Occasional light freezing drizzle and drizzle will also develop from mid Evening through the Overnight hours.  Deep low pressure averaging 986 mb will pull out into the Western High Plains during the night with a southerly 850mb jet >30 knots in place ahead of this storm which will help pull deep moisture into the Northland.  Some light snow may start to develop after Midnight Tonight in Koochiching and far Northern Itasca counties Minnesota as an arctic front oozes southeast from Northwestern Minnesota.  Snow accumulations of up to an inch are possible by dawn in those areas.  Low temperatures Tonight will be in the 20s and 30s with winds out of the south, east, or northeast under 20 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Storm number one affects our area during this period.  Strong low pressure of around 994 mb will head northeast out of the Central Plains Thursday Morning, reaching Eastcentral Minnesota Thursday Evening, then moving to Northern Lake Superior by dawn Friday.  An arctic front should move slowly southeast on Thursday and should reach a line from Ely to Aitkin to Brainerd by midday before it moves into far Northwest Wisconsin by late Thursday Night as low pressure exits the area.  A tight temperature gradient will become established during this period with high temperatures in the 20s in west-northwest areas with 30s to near 40 degree temperatures elsewhere with the warmest readings in Northwestern Wisconsin.  Lows Thursday Night will range from the single digits in west-northwest areas to the 30s in Northwest Wisconsin!  Winds will be out of the south, east, or north on Thursday at 10-20 mph with winds out of the north or west Thursday Night under 20 mph.

Expect precipitation to become steadier and heavier on Thursday as the low moves into the Upper Midwest.  Snow, sleet, or freezing rain will change over to snow Thursday Afternoon in Northcentral Minnesota while locations from the Arrowhead southwest to the Brainerd Lakes area sees rain, sleet, freezing rain, or snow.  Northwest Wisconsin, locations near Lake Superior, and the I-35 corridor should see mainly rain on Thursday, but some patchy freezing rain could occur away from the lake in Northeast Minnesota.  There is a chance that precipitation could switch over to a brief period of wet snow in Northeast-Eastern Minnesota early Thursday Evening, but right now this doesn't look like it will be a very big deal.

Snowfall storm totals in Northcentral Minnesota by late Thursday Night will range from 4-7" with localized amounts of 8-9" for Koochiching, Northern Itasca, Northern St. Louis, and Cass counties Minnesota.  1-3" of snow is possible for the Iron Range and Brainerd Lakes areas with up to an inch possible for the Twin Ports and Arrowhead of Minnesota.

Extended Forecast:

Storm number two will affect the Northland from Friday Afternoon through early Saturday.  The latest computer model runs show low pressure tracking almost due north from Eastern Kansas or Western Missouri on Friday with the low pushing into Northern Minnesota/Northwest Lake Superior by early Saturday.  An arctic front left behind from Thursday's storm should be centered in far Northwest Wisconsin-far Eastern Minnesota on Friday, this boundary probably won't move much on Friday due to the low approaching from the south, but by Friday Night the arctic front will get pushed through all of Northwest Wisconsin as low pressure lifts into Northern Minnesota.

The airmass by Friday is forecast to be colder in all but Northwest Wisconsin, as a result the main precipitation type should be snow in Northern-Eastern Minnesota while snow, freezing rain, or rain will be possible in Northwest Wisconsin.  The area from the Twin Ports south through the I-35 corridor look to be awfully close to the transition zone, thus a low track slightly more to the west or east will affect how much precipitation falls as snow or how much falls as mixed precipitation.

Note:  The worse conditions with this second storm should occur from mid or late Friday Afternoon through Friday Night, although a dry slot should cut-off the precipitation for Northwest Wisconsin and possibly for the Twin Ports and I-35 corridor by mid or late Friday Evening.

There is growing potential for a 6+" swath of snow with the Friday-Friday Night storm especially west-northwest of a line from Brainerd to Brookston, including the North Shore of Lake Superior and Arrowhead of Minnesota.  Snow accumulations should be much lower in Northwest Wisconsin, but these areas could see some ice accumulations.

High temperatures on Friday will range from the single digits in western areas to the 30s in Northwest Wisconsin with lows Friday Night in the single digits below to lower teens above zero.  Highs Saturday will be nearly steady from Friday Night's lows, while Saturday's high temperatures will be in the single digits above zero.

Note:  Additional winter weather headlines will likely be needed for portions if not all of our local area for the Friday/Friday Night storm.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Timing:  9 PM CST This Evening until Noon CST Thursday.

.Tonight...  Fog which could become dense at times along with occasional light freezing drizzle and drizzle developing This Evening and continuing through the night.  Low 28 to 33.  Wind becoming southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Fog which could be dense at times.  Occasional light freezing drizzle or drizzle during the Morning, then rain for the Afternoon.  Some sleet or snow could mix in with the rain, especially away from Lake Superior.  High 33 to 38.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Areas of fog along with possible light freezing drizzle through the night.  Rain, sleet, or snow ending during the Evening.  Total snowfall accumulations up to an inch, mainly away from Lake Superior.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind northeast early, becoming west at 10 to 15 mph.

.New Years Eve...  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  Snow or a mixture of snow and freezing rain developing after 2 PM.  High 25 to 30.  Wind becoming east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph.

.Friday Night...  Breezy with snow during the Evening.  Freezing rain possible early.  Snow showers or flurries lingering Overnight.  Total snowfall accumulations up to 4".  Low zero to 5 above.  East to northeast wind could occasionally gust to 25 mph during the Evening.

.New Years Day...  Very cold.  Breezy.  Flurries.  High 10 to 15 with temperatures falling through the single digits.  Northwest wind could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Very cold.  Becoming partly cloudy.  Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 5 to 10.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow:

High:  18
Low:    0

Tim

12/29/10: UPDATED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE INFORMATION

Issued at 4:04 PM CST, Wednesday, December 29th, 2010

.All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Timing:

9 PM CST This Evening until Noon CST Thursday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Crow Wing MN...Southern Itasca MN...Aitkin MN...Carlton MN...Southern and Central St. Louis MN...Lake MN...and Cook MN.

Some cities included in the advisory:

Brainerd MN...Grand Rapids MN...Aitkin MN...Hill City MN...McGrath MN...Moose Lake MN...Cloquet MN...Duluth MN...Floodwood MN...Cotton MN...Hibbing MN...Two Harbors MN...Isabella MN...Silver Bay MN...Finland MN...Lutsen MN...Grand Marais MN...Hovland MN...and Grand Portage MN...

Discussion:

Dense fog and periods of freezing drizzle will spread north into the Interstate 35 corridor, the Twin Ports, Brainerd Lakes, and the Arrowhead of Minnesota Tonight and Thursday Morning with a light glaze of ice expected to accumulate on higher elevated surfaces and on untreated roads, especially away from Lake Superior.  Strong low pressure lifting northeast out of the Central Plains will cause heavier precipitation to move into the advisory area from late Thursday Morning through late Thursday Afternoon, but at this time it looks like most of this precipitation will fall as rain with some sleet or wet snow possibly mixing in at times away from Lake Superior.

If you have travel plans Tonight and Tomorrow be prepared for dense fog which will reduce visibilities to near zero at times.  Use extreme caution if you have travel plans.

Be aware of the liklihood of roads becoming icy with very low visibility in dense fog.  Drive and walk with care.

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

Timing:

9 PM CST This Evening until 6 PM CST Thursday.

Counties included in the warning:

Koochiching MN...Northern Itasca MN...Cass MN...and Northern St. Louis MN.

Some cities included in the warning:

International Falls MN...Littlefork MN...Bigfork MN...Togo MN...Alvwood MN...Cass Lake MN...Walker MN...Leader MN...Crane Lake MN...and Ely MN.

Discussion:

Freezing drizzle and dense fog will develop Tonight along with some light snow after Midnight in Northern Minnesota.  Snow accumulations up to one inch are possible by dawn with a light accumulation of ice also possible.  Precipitation will become heavier on Thursday into Thursday Evening before ending late Thursday Night.  A mixture of freezing rain, sleet, or snow is possible Thursday Morning with a change over to snow occurring from northwest to southeast Thursday Afternoon.  Snow could become heavy at times during the Afternoon and Evening hours of Thursday.

Expect winds to become north to 20 mph by Thursday Afternoon with dangerously low visibilities due to falling and blowing snow.

Snowfall totals of 4-7" with localized greater amounts approaching 9" are expected by late Thursday Night in the warning area.

A winter storm warning for wintry mixed precipitation means heavy accumulation of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will occur.  Expect extremely slippery and dangerous snow and ice covered roads, especially Thursday and Thursday Night.  If you travel, exercise extreme caution and allow extra time to reach your destination.  Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time.  Have a working cell phone in case you become stranded.  Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle, including a flashlight, food, and water.

*DENSE FOG ADVISORY*

Timing:

Until Noon CST Thursday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Pine MN...Douglas WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Iron WI...Burnett WI...Washburn WI...Sawyer WI...and Price WI.

Some cities included in the advisory:

Hinckley MN...Pine City MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Cable WI...Ashland WI...Butternut WI...Hurley WI...Mercer WI...Grantsburg WI...Siren WI...Minong WI...Spooner WI...Hayward WI...Exeland WI...Park Falls WI...and Phillips WI.

Discussion:

Dense fog will develop This Evening in the advisory area and will continue through early Thursday Afternoon.  Dangerously low visibilities to zero miles will occur at times.

A dense fog advisory means visibilities will be reduced to less than a quarter mile.  If you are driving, slow down, use low beam headlights, and be prepared for the sudden loss of visibility as you enter fog banks.

Tim

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

12/28/10: WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE INFORMATION

Issued at 10:36 PM CST, Tuesday, December 28th, 2010

All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

*WINTER STORM WATCH*

Timing:

Wednesday Night through Thursday Evening.

Counties included in the watch:

Koochiching MN...Northern Itasca MN...and Northern St. Louis MN...

Some cities included in the watch:

International Falls MN...Northome MN...Bigfork MN...Togo MN...and Crane Lake MN...

Discussion:

A mixture of light freezing drizzle and light snow will develop in Northern Minnesota late Wednesday Night.  Precipitation will then pick up in intensity on Thursday and will continue Thursday Evening before ending Overnight Thursday.  At this time it appears that snow will be the main precipitation type, although some sleet or freezing rain is also possible.  Snowfall storm totals of 5-8" are possible in the watch area by late Thursday Night.

Low pressure will move from the Central Plains toward Western Lake Superior from Wednesday Night through late Thursday Night and will be responsible in producing this wintry weather.

Visibilities will drop to between one half mile to one mile at times due to the combination of falling snow and blowing snow due to north-northeast winds which will gust to 20 mph.  Roads will be snow and ice covered which will cause hazardous driving conditions.

A winter storm watch means there is the potential for significant accumulation of snow and some ice that may impact travel and commerce.  You are encouraged to stay current with the latest weather information regarding this developing winter storm via local television, radio, the internet, or NOAA weather radio.

*WINTER STORM WATCH*

Timing:

Wednesday Night through Thursday Evening.

Counties included in the watch:

Central St. Louis MN...Lake MN...and Cook MN.

Some cities included in the watch:

Hibbing MN...Cotton MN...Larsmont MN...Two Harbors MN...Silver Bay MN...Finland MN...Isabella MN...Lutsen MN...Grand Marais MN...Hovland MN...and Grand Portage MN.

Discussion:

Areas of fog and light freezing drizzle will develop in the watch area Wednesday Night.  Areas of locally dense fog will persist Thursday and Thursday Evening while heavier precipitation approaches from the southwest.  A mixture of freezing rain and rain, and possibly some sleet or snow will occur from the Iron Range to Arrowhead of Minnesota and also along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Ice accumulations up to one quarter inch are possible in some areas by late Thursday Night.

East winds of 15-25 mph are expected with visibilities as low as one quarter mile due to dense fog.

Untreated roads will become slick and hazardous and ice accumulation on trees and power lines may cause some power outages.

Note:  A secondary area of low pressure is forecast to intensify as it lifts north out of the Central Plains on Friday, this low is expected to reach Northern Minnesota or Southern Ontario Province by dawn Saturday.  It's beginning to look like there could be a significant amount of wind and snow for Friday Afternoon and Friday Night for some parts of Northcentral Minnesota, possibly including the Interstate 35 corridor, the Twin Ports, and North Shore of Lake Superior, although at this time the heaviest amounts of snow of 6" or greater are forecast to be west-northwest of the Twin Ports.  The worse conditions as it looks now would occur from mid or late Friday Afternoon through Friday Night.

Tim

12/28/10: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:51 PM CST, Tuesday, December 28th, 2010

Minnesota leads the way with number of confirmed tornadoes for 2010!

Per Storm Prediction Center:  145 tornadoes have been confirmed in Minnesota for 2010.  This is more than what occurred in Texas (105) and in Oklahoma (73).  Wisconsin had 68 confirmed tornadoes for 2010.

A total of 758 severe weather events were reported in Minnesota this year while Wisconsin had 539 per Storm Prediction Center.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High temperatures warmed into the upper 20s and 30s across our area Today thanks to sunshine and a southwesterly breeze of up to 15-20 mph.  Surface map as of 3 PM featured high pressure of 1019-1024 mb stretching from Missouri to the Southeast U.S. while low pressure of 996-1002 mb extended from Southwest Saskatchewan Province to the Pacific Northwest.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis indicates a W/NW 500mb flow in place over the Upper Midwest Today with a shortwave trough lifting E/NE out New Mexico.  A strong upper level jet >110 knots was over the Eastern Pacific with a large plume of moisture stretching from the Hawaiian Islands through the Central-East Pacific to the Northwest U.S.

Tonight:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with lows in the teens and 20s, winds will be out of the southwest under 20 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Southerly low level jet up to 40 knots will cause increasing amounts of low level moisture to begin streaming north through the Central Plains during this period while low pressure reaches the Western High Plains by Wednesday Evening.  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies are forecast on Wednesday with highs in the 20s and 30s  Mostly cloudy skies are forecast Wednesday Night with patchy fog or light freezing drizzle.  Lows Tomorrow Night will hold steady in the 20s and 30s.  Winds will be out of the south or east under 20 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Storm number one lifts northeast from the Western High Plains to Northeastern Minnesota during the Thursday-Thursday Night time frame.  PWS of 0.50-0.75" and alot of warm air surging north out ahead of this low thanks to a potent 850mb southerly low level jet will lead to quite a bit of precipitation across our area for Thursday and Thursday Evening.  At this time it appears that the precipitation will fall as rain with maybe some freezing rain Thursday Morning for all of Northwest Wisconsin back through Eastern Minnesota and also for areas near Lake Superior with little or no icing expected.  Locations west/north of Highway 2 in Minnesota and west of Highway 53 in Minnesota will have the best chance at seeing freezing rain with some ice accumulations possible, but even those areas could see the freezing rain turn to rain for a time Thursday Afternoon.  Some snow could also occur with this first storm, especially west of a line from Cass Lake to International Falls with 1-2" of accumulation possible for Northern Cass, Western Itasca, and Koochiching counties Minnesota.  The heavier swath of snow with Thursday's storm will be over the Dakotas and Northwestern Minnesota where storm totals of greater than 4" are expected.  Widespread quarter to half inch precipitation totals are forecast for our local area Thursday and Thursday Evening, and some of that may be in the form of freezing rain, especially in Northcentral Minnesota.  High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 30s with lows Thursday Night in the 20s and 30s.

This first area of low pressure will exit to our northeast by early Friday Morning with an arctic front attached to that low pushing east for a time before stalling out as new energy lifts N/NE out of the Southern Plains from Friday into early Saturday.  This second system is not being handled very well with the computer models Today so further changes to the forecast will likely occur between now and then.  As it stands now, it appears that there will be an area of low pressure which will lift north through Western Wisconsin or Eastern Minnesota Friday Afternoon-Evening before moving into Southern Ontario Province by dawn Saturday.  The GFS model continues to indicate a much stronger storm for Friday-Saturday compared to the other models Today, but the overall consensus would be for a swath of snow with 4" or greater accumulations setting up in Western, Central, and Northern Minnesota with Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota seeing either rain or snow and possibly some freezing rain with a light coating of ice and possibly a dusting to a few inches of snow possible.  The entire area will see some snow showers/flurries from late Friday Night into Saturday as arctic air spreads in from the southwest behind the area of low pressure.  High temperatures on Friday will range widely with single digits and teens in far west/northwest areas with 30s in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota.  Low temperatures Friday Night will be in the single digits below to lower teens above zero.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.  Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Areas of fog, light freezing drizzle, or drizzle possible.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Occasional rain with areas of fog.  Freezing rain possible away from Lake Superior.  High 32 to 37.

.Thursday Night...  Occasional rain early with freezing rain possible away from Lake Superior.  Mostly cloudy with patchy drizzle, freezing drizzle, or fog possible through the night.  Low 25 to 30.

.Friday...  Rain, snow, or freezing rain possible mainly during the Afternoon.  High 30 to 35.

.Friday Night...  Snow showers and flurries.  Much colder.  Low zero to 5 above.

.Saturday...  Very cold.  Flurries.  High 5 to 10.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow:

High:  19 degrees
Low:    1 degree

Tim

Monday, December 27, 2010

12/27/10: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:32 PM CST, Monday, December 27th, 2010

...STORM POTENTIAL LATE THIS WEEK...

Weather tidbits:  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

*Through December 26th, 2010 the average monthly temperature at Duluth, Minnesota:  10.5 degrees/4.3 degrees Below Normal.

*Through December 26th, 2010 the average monthly temperature at International Falls, Minnesota:  5.8 degrees/3.6 degrees Below Normal.

Weather History:

On this date in 2003, a record high temperature of 40 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Most areas saw a bit more sun Today compared to previous days with above normal high temperatures for all areas.  Highs Today were in the 20s with southwest winds at 10-20 mph with a few higher gusts.  Surface map as of 6 PM CST featured high pressure of 1028 mb centered in Western Kentucky with low pressure of 998 mb centered in Central Manitoba Province. 

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A vigorous disturbance with strong 150-210 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls was pushing south/east out of the Northern Plains and the Manitoba Lakes region, the upper level flow out ahead of that system was turning to the west-southwest late Today across the Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis.

Tonight through Tuesday Night:

Low pressure will pass by well to our northwest-north with a cold front attached to that low pushing southeast through our local area on Tuesday.  There might be a few flurries at times late Tonight and Tomorrow mainly in far Northern Minnesota, otherwise this period looks rather tranquil.  Lows Tonight and Tuesday Night will be in the teens, but a few locales could drop into the single digits Tuesday Night.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s.  Winds will be out of the southwest or west at 10-20 mph with a few higher gusts possible Tonight and Tomorrow.

Extended Forecast:

A mess is in store from Thursday through Saturday and unfortunately the forecast models continue to disagree as to what will happen, but hopefully by Tuesday and Wednesday they will converge on a solution.  It's looking more likely that will be affected by two low pressure systems with the one Thursday having warmer air, while the second one for Friday-Saturday having colder air, at least for parts of our local area.

Wednesday should remain dry in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with high temperatures in the 20s and 30s.  By Wednesday Night, a southerly low level jet will increase to around 30-40 knots which will pump warm/moist air north into our area, the potential exists for some patchy light freezing drizzle by late Wednesday Night as that warm/moist air moves in.

Thursday and Thursday Night will see the first area of low pressure moving into the Upper Midwest by way of the Western High Plains.  Right now it looks like the low will track west/northwest of the Twin Ports, so Eastern Minnesota, Northwest Wisconsin, and areas near Lake Superior should see mainly rain out of that system with a mixture of freezing rain, rain, and perhaps some snow or sleet occurring especially west/north of Highway 2 in Northern Minnesota.  The forecast models Today are showing upwards of a quarter to half inch of precipitation on Thursday, this could lead to some big problems if the precipitation falls as freezing rain in Northern Minnesota.  High temperatures on Thursday will be mainly in the 30s with lows Thursday Night in the 20s and lower 30s.

The secondary system (which not all the models are showing Today) may affect our area's weather from Friday through Saturday.  Behind Thursday's low, will see a cold front more then likely stall out somewhere in Western Wisconsin while low pressure takes shape in the Southcentral Plains, this low may then lift N/NE, possibly passing through Northern Wisconsin before moving into Northwestern Lake Superior by Saturday Morning.  Colder air should advect south/east by Friday, so as this second storm moves up from the south we should see more frozen rather than liquid precipitation.  If Today's GFS model runs are correct, then Northern and possibly even Eastern Minnesota could see a significant amount of snow and wind from Friday through early Saturday while rain or a rain/snow mix occurs from the Hayward Lakes, Ashland, Park Falls areas in Wisconsin.  Stay tuned in coming days as the computer models continue to iron out there differences on the track and timing of this late week storm.  One thing is certain, and it's that a quick shot of arctic air will develop this weekend in wake of the low.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 27 to 32.  Wind southwest to west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 13 to 18.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Temperatures nearly steady from 25 to 30.

.Thursday...  Occasional rain developing, especially during the Afternoon.  Freezing rain is also possible, mainly away from Lake Superior.  High 32 to 37.

.Thursday Night...  Occasional rain early with freezing rain possible away from Lake Superior.  Mostly cloudy with patchy drizzle, freezing drizzle, or fog possible.  Low 25 to 30.

.New Years Eve...  Snow, freezing rain, or rain possible mainly during the Afternoon.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow:

High:  19 degrees
Low:    1 degree

Tim

Sunday, December 26, 2010

12/26/10: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:49 PM CST, Sunday, December 26th, 2010

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Mostly cloudy skies continued for most of our area Today with high temperatures in the teens and 20s which is near to a couple degrees above normal for late December.  Winds Today were nearly calm, or south-southeast under 15 mph.  Surface map as of 7 PM CST featured a 1030 mb high pressure ridge extending from Eastern Minnesota through Missouri, south to Louisiana.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A deep 500mb trough was in place across the Eastern half of the U.S. with an upper level ridge from the Northern Plains to Central Plains while another upper level trough covered portions of Western Canada and the Pacific Northwest.  The big story Today was the Nor'easter which was hammering the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast U.S. Today with heavy snow and blizzard conditions.  A 140+ knot upper level jet over the Western Atlantic was helping to energize this storm This Evening with a 980 mb surface low centered east of New Jersey as of 7 PM CST.

Tonight through Monday Night:

High pressure will push off to our southeast during this period while a weak warm front heads east from the Northern Plains.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with partly cloudy skies on tap for Monday and Monday Night.  Low temperatures will be in the single digits below to lower teens above zero Tonight with highs Tomorrow in the teens and 20s.  Lows Monday Night will be in the teens.  Southerly winds Tonight and Monday will shift a bit more to the southwest-west Monday Night, wind speeds should remain under 20 mph through this period.

Extended Forecast:

A cold front will settle south but will wash out as it moves into the Upper Midwest from Tuesday to Wednesday.  No precipitation is expected to occur as this front moves through.  High temperatures will be in the 20s to lower 30s for Tuesday and Wednesday with lows in the teens and 20s Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night.

Latest on the New Years storm potential:

Nothing is certain just yet, but the trends with the long range forecast models is for a warmer and more westerly track to the storm which would limit the threat for significant snow/icing for our local area.  Low pressure is expected to develop across Colorado or the Western High Plains from Wednesday into Thursday, this low is then forecasted to lift N/NE toward Northern Minnesota or Western Lake Superior from Friday Night into Saturday Morning.  An unusually mild airmass for this time of year will get pulled north into our area as the low approaches from the southwest.  850 mb temperatures are expected to range from around zero/+4 degrees C from Thursday to Friday and this should result in most of the precipitation coming down in liquid form. 

There are a few items of note, however...One, would be the snow cover which is as far south as Central Kansas and Northern Arkansas!  This could lead to the storm tracking more to the south/east then what the current models are showing Today.  Secondly, the potential exists for two seperate lows, the first arriving on Thursday with generally rain or perhaps some mixed precip...Then, the second and main low would lift N/NE Friday-early Saturday, and this system could very easily track farther south/east thanks to slightly colder air which would shift south behind that Thursday system.  Still plenty of question marks concerning the late week storm potential, but as of now this storm doesn't look nearly as impressive as it did a few days ago, but that's not to say the models won't begin to trend that way once again during the next few days.  A perfect example of how bad the computer models have been doing this winter season is to look at what's happening over the East Coast Today, the majority of the forecast models around 5-7 days ago had that Nor'Easter slamming the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast U.S., then as late as Friday the models backed off on that solution, taking the low well off-shore with virtually no impact for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast U.S., then all of a sudden the forecast models on Saturday trended farther west with that storm.  It's been a tough winter for the computer models to say the least.

As it looks now, expect some rain or perhaps mixed precipitation in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Thursday to Thursday Evening, then the period from late Thursday Night through Friday Afternoon could bring with it some fog, drizzle, or freezing drizzle.  The next batch of rain or mixed precipitation would then move up from the south Friday Afternoon through Saturday Morning.  Much colder air will then work it's way into the Upper Midwest next weekend in wake of the low, any precipitation left over would turn to snow showers and flurries next Saturday and Sunday.  Note:  Another problem that may develop is for any standing water to freeze over next weekend as very cold air advects into our local area from the southwest.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind south around 12 mph.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 20 to 25.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 13 to 18.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy.  Rain possible which could mix with freezing rain, especially away from Lake Superior.  High 32 to 37.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow:

High:  19 degrees
Low:    1 degree

Tim

Saturday, December 25, 2010

12/25/10: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:44 PM CST, Saturday, December 25th, 2010

...Storm threat late next week, December 30th-January 2nd...

...RECORD EVENT...  Source:  NWS Chanhassen, Minnesota.

New December snowfall record at Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota.  Snowfall total through December 24th, 2010 has reached 33.4" which makes December 2010 the snowiest on record at Minneapolis.  The previous record occurred in 1969 when 33.2" of snow fell.

Lake effect snow totals from Today, Saturday, December 25th, 2010.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Saxon, WI (Iron county)  8.0"
2 miles north-northwest of Bayfield, WI (Bayfield county)  1.5"
3 miles south-southwest of Cornucopia, WI (Bayfield county)  1.0"
Montreal, WI (Iron county)  3.0"
Gile, WI (Iron county)  2.5"

Weather history:

On this date in 1999:  A record high temperature of 44 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
On this date in 2009:  1.65" of precipitation fell at Duluth, Minnesota with 12.4" of snow.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure averaging 1036 mb extended from Western Ontario Province to Western Minnesota.  Northerly winds to 20 mph and lots of clouds were found in our area Today with scattered flurries as well.  Colder 850 mb temperatures to -12 degrees C combined with favorable wind directions led to some heavier lake effect snow showers Today along the South Shore of Lake Superior, east of Douglas county Wisconsin.  High temperatures Today were in the teens and 20s.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northerly 500mb with strong upper level jet stream winds to 120 knots covered the Upper Midwest and portions of the Central Plains Today per RUC model analysis.  A deep upper level trough was in place east of the Rockies with a southwest flow aloft centered in the Eastern U.S. where a Nor'Easter was in the process of developing off-shore from the Carolinas.  A 500mb ridge was in place across the Rockies Today while a vigorous 500mb covered the North half of the Pacific Ocean with a powerful upper level jet >150 knots in place just off the Pacific Northwest coast per RUC model analysis.

Tonight through Sunday Night:

High pressure will remain in control of our weather as it covers the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes.  The threat for occasional lake effect snow showers will continue into Sunday Morning along the South Shore of Lake Superior while scattered flurries are possible elsewhere.  Mainly dry conditions are then expected for the entire area from Sunday Afternoon through Sunday Night.  Low temperatures Tonight and Sunday Night will be in the single digits below to lower teens above zero with highs on Sunday mainly in the teens.  North winds under 20 mph can be expected Tonight and Tomorrow with north or south winds Tomorrow Night under 20 mph.

Note:  *Lake Effect Snow Advisory* remains in effect until 10 AM CST Sunday for Ashland and Iron counties Wisconsin and for Bayfield county Wisconsin untul 4 AM CST Sunday.  An additional 1-4" of snow is possible in the advisory area Tonight with storm totals ranging from 2-10", the heaviest amounts will be found over portions of Ashland and Iron counties.

Extended Forecast:

High pressure heads off to our south/east for early next week, southwest winds with highs in the 20s to lower 30s are expected Monday and Tuesday for Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with low temperatures in the teens and 20s Monday Night and Tuesday Night.  A cold front will try to push south into the Upper Midwest around mid week with a low pressure disturbance riding along this boundary, the main impacts out of this disturbance should occur northwest-north of our local area for Wednesday, but some scattered snow showers/flurries are possible in Northern Minnesota.

The period from Thursday through next weekend still holds a storm threat, but there are differences with the timing and intensity of this system, the track for the most part is handled pretty much the same with the various long range models Today with low pressure lifting N/NE from the Central Plains toward Eastern Minnesota/Western Wisconsin/Western Lake Superior.  The GFS model is on the slow side while the EURO model has this system moving more quickly.  It should also be noted that the GFS model has more than one low pressure system ejecting out of the Western U.S. 500mb trough, with the main system not moving into the Upper Midwest until next weekend.  Expect additional changes to the track, timing, and intensity of this storm in coming days.

Snow, freezing rain, or some rain could occur across our entire area from Thursday through next weekend (December 30th-January 2nd) with significant accumulations possible depending on how this system evolves late next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered flurries.  Low 2 to 7.  Wind north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 15 to 20.  Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low zero to 5 above.  Wind west around 12 mph.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 20 to 25.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 13 to 18.

.Wednesday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow:

High:  19 degrees
Low:    2 degrees

Tim

Friday, December 24, 2010

12/24/10: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 10:48 PM CST, Friday, December 24th, 2010

Tonight through Saturday Night:

The majority of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will be mainly dry, but scattered snow flurries cannot be ruled out here and there.  High pressure off to our northwest will result in a northerly flow which will cause occasional lake effect snow showers along the South Shore of Lake Superior, affecting mainly Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron counties, although some of this activity could spread west and affect portions of Douglas county.  Snowfall accumulations through Saturday Night will range from 1 to as much as 3".  Low temperatures Tonight and Saturday Night will be in the single digits below to above zero with a few teens in spots that stay rather cloudy.  High temperatures Tomorrow will be in the teens and 20s.  Northerly winds under 20 mph can be expected through Saturday Night.

Extended Forecast:

A threat for scattered South Shore lake effect snow showers will continue for Sunday and Sunday Night, the rest of our area will remain generally dry as high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest.  Dry weather is then expected for early next week (Monday-Tuesday)  high temperatures will generally be in the teens and 20s for Sunday and Monday with lows Sunday Night ranging from around 10 below to 10 above zero.  Lows Monday Night will be in the single digits below to around 10 above zero.

By the middle of next week an area of low pressure is expected to pass northeast through the Northern Plains/Southern Canada.  This system looks fairly weak at the moment, but could be enough to bring some snow showers or flurries to parts of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin around Wednesday of next week. 

The big storm for Near Years continues to show up on recent GFS and EURO model runs, although there are differences with the track, timing, and intensity of this system which will have huge impacts on our area.  The GFS model (00z and 06z run) from This Morning shifted the low farther south/east, giving most of our local area a memorable (possible EPIC) blizzard for late next week.  The 12z and 18z GFS runs later Today have trended farther west/north with the surface low once again which would result in snow turning to a mix of precipitation which could range from freezing rain to sleet or even some rain.  The EURO model is showing a faster moving storm system with enough warm air surging north to result in either a mixture of precip or even plain old rain.  Nothing is certain this far out in time, but the potential does exist for a major storm sometime during the Thursday-Saturday time frame (December 30th-January 1st)  Anything from a strong winter storm/blizzard, to a messy mix of precip, or perhaps even an ice storm does exist across our local area based on the latest model trends.

Tim

Thursday, December 23, 2010

12/23/10: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:40 PM CST, Thursday, December 23rd, 2010

Final snowfall report from the winter storm that hit the area on Monday and Tuesday, December 20th-21st, 2010.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Adolph, MN (St. Louis county)  15.0"
7 miles northwest of Two Harbors, MN (Lake county)  13.3"
3 miles northwest of Cloquet, MN (Carlton county)  12.0"
3 miles west-northwest of Clam Lake, WI (Bayfield county)  11.0"
Finland, MN (Lake county)  11.0"
Silver Bay, MN (Lake county)  10.8"
Park Falls, WI (Price county)  10.0"
Maple, WI (Douglas county)  9.9"
Butternut, WI (Ashland county)  9.6"
Mercer, WI (Iron county)  9.0"
1 mile west of Wentworth, WI (Douglas county)  8.0"
Bruno, MN (Pine county)  6.0"
Cass Lake, MN (Cass county)  5.5"
7 miles northwest of Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing county)  5.2"
Danbury, WI (Burnett county)  4.7"
Northome, MN (Koochiching county)  4.6"
Littlefork, MN (Koochiching county)  3.8"
International Falls, MN (Koochiching county)  3.6"
Lutsen, MN (Cook county)  3.5"
Cook, MN (St. Louis county)  3.0"
Grand Portage, MN (Cook county)  2.5"

Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  11.8" measured at the National Weather Service
Proctor, MN (St. Louis county)  11.0"

...MAJOR STORM POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK...

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Mostly cloudy skies were found in our area with some light snow and flurries falling at times from the Twin Ports south, accumulations were generally around a dusting.  Highs Today ranged from the upper teens to middle 20s with light winds from the north or east under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb trough covered the Northeast U.S./Eastern Canada with another diffuse trough passing through the Rockies while a deeper upper level trough covered the Gulf Of Alaska while a shortwave trough was pushing south/east out of the Northern Plains per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.

Tonight through Friday Night:

High pressure will remain centered to our northwest through this period while a disturbance passes by to our southwest/south.  The most significant snow with that system will fall in Western through Southcentral Minnesota while some light snow and flurries reach into areas along and south of Highway 2 in our local area Tonight and Friday.  Total accumulations of a dusting up to an inch are possible by Friday Afternoon from Cass Lake to Duluth to Ashland.  Also there could be some patchy light freezing drizzle at times Tonight and Tomorrow.  Mostly cloudy skies will continue during this period with lows in the teens to around 20 degrees Tonight with single digits and teens for Friday Night.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the teens and 20s.  Winds will be out of the north or east under 15 mph Tonight and Tomorrow with north or west winds under 15 mph Tomorrow Night.

Extended Forecast:

High pressure will be in control of our weather from Saturday into early next week.  North winds to the east of this high will cause some lake effect snow showers along the South Shore of Lake Superior this weekend, otherwise the rest of our area will be dry.  High temperatures will be mainly in the teens for Saturday and Sunday with lows in the single digits below to above zero Saturday Night and Sunday Night.

A major storm could hit the area late next week.  Right now the timing looks to be from Thursday Night through Saturday (December 30th-January 1st)  The 4 GFS model runs from Today continue to show one heck of a storm taking shape over the Plains by late next week.  Note:  The GFS model updates 4 times a day and the 4 updates on Wednesday and the 4 updates Today have all shown a major storm taking shape while slamming into the Upper Midwest late next week/next weekend, it's quite rare to see all 4 runs stick with the same solution, usually there are some differences between one model run to the next.  Note:  The 00z EURO model from last night and the 12z EURO model from Today are also showing a major storm for late next week.  Bottom line is that the period from December 30th-January 1st needs to be watched very carefully during the next several days to see if the long range models continue to show this storm.  Right now, the long range models are showing a surface low somewhere in the 980's mb range pushing N/NE from the Central Plains.  The track, timing, and intensity of this storm will likely change a bit during the next several days, but as it stands now based on the track, it would appear that a major snowstorm/possible blizzard would affect parts of the Dakotas, Western into Northcentral Minnesota with snow turning to rain, then back to snow in Wisconsin and from Southern-Eastern Minnesota.  The zone in between including the Twin Ports vicinity could see snow, rain, or even some freezing rain.  Again expect some changes to the track, timing, and intensity of this storm, and since it's still a week or so away, it's certainly possible that this storm won't even develop, or be much weaker than what the forecast models are showing at the moment.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered light snow showers and flurries, patchy light freezing drizzle also possible.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Christmas Eve...  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered snow showers and flurries, patchy light freezing drizzle also possible.  Snow accumulations less than one inch.  High 23 to 28.  Wind east around 12 mph, becoming north late in the Afternoon.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 7 to 12.  Wind north around 12 mph.

.Christmas Day...  Partly sunny.  High 15 to 20.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low zero to 5 above.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 15 to 20.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 3 below to 2 above.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 15 to 20.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow:

High:  20 degrees
Low:    2 degrees

Tim

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

12/22/10: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 8:03 PM CST, Wednesday, December 22nd, 2010

A very snowy winter so far at Duluth, Minnesota.

51.5" of snow has fallen at Duluth, Minnesota through December 21st, 2010 which is 24.8" above normal.  This is the 5th highest total to date and is 193% of the normal value or nearly twice the amount that Duluth would normal have through December 21st.

Here are the top 5 snowiest seasons through December 21st.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

1:  69.7"/1991
2:  69.5"/1983
3:  54.7"/1950
4:  52.3"/1995
5:  51.5"/2010

Two day precipitation/snowfall total at Duluth, Minnesota:

December 20th-21st, 2010:  0.75"/11.8"

Weather History:

On this date in 1989 and 1983 a record low temperature of -22 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies prevailed across our area Today with some scattered flurries at times.  Highs were on the mild side for the time of year with 20s and lower 30s along with north or northwest winds under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Blocking pattern was redeveloping as an upper level low begins to move west through Eastern Canada, a NW 500mb flow was in place across our area Today while an upper level ridge covered the Plains out ahead of a deep 500mb trough which was in place across the Western U.S. per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.

Tonight through Thursday Night:

High pressure will be centered to our northwest during this period while a disturbance with some snow passes S/SE out of the Northern Plains.  A few flurries are possible at times in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows single digits to around 10 above zero Tonight and Thursday Night with a few locales possibly dropping into the single digits below zero if skies manage to clear out for a few hours.  Highs on Thursday will be in the teens and 20s.  Northerly winds under 20 mph will occur through this period.

Extended Forecast:

A rather quiet weather pattern is on tap for our local area from Friday into early next week with the only exception to this being along the South Shore of Lake Superior where northerly winds will cause occasional lake effect snow showers with some accumulation expected this weekend.  High temperatures for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day (Friday-Saturday) will be in the teens and 20s with low temperatures in the single digits below to above zero both nights. 

Looking ahead into the early to middle part of next week features near to above normal temperatures with no significant precipitation...This could all change by late week or next weekend as all 4 GFS model runs Today have cranked out one heck of a storm for the Plains, Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes sometime during the December 30th-January 3rd time frame.  Blizzard, heavy rain, perhaps some severe weather will be a threat if this storm develops...  A few of the GFS model runs Today have the low tracking right up through Central Minnesota which would pull warm enough air into portions of Minnesota to produce a snow/rain mix, or even a scenario where snow turns to rain sometime during the event.  This storm from a GFS model perspective has some similar looking characteristics to the Christmas storm of 2009.  It should also be noted that even before Today, some past runs per GFS model has shown a storm taking shape over the Plains around New Years so this period has to be watched during the next several days.  Note:  The EURO model has no signs of a storm for late next week with it's 00z/12z run Today, but since this is over a week away it's not surprising that the models have these differences and one thing is certain and it's that there will likely be fluctuations within the models on the track, strength, and timing of the possible storm for late next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 3 to 8.  Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 18 to 23.  Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 3 to 8.  Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Christmas Eve...  Partly sunny.  High 17 to 22.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 2 to 7.

.Christmas Day...  Partly cloudy.  High 15 to 20.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low zero to 5 above.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 16 to 21.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow:

High:  20 degrees
Low:    3 degrees

Tim

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

12/21/10: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:16 PM CST, Tuesday, December 21st, 2010

Snowfall report from Monday-Tuesday, December 20th-21st, 2010.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota. 

Note:  Snow continues to fall late This Afternoon, especially near Lake Superior so the totals below may not represent the final amount.

Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  12.7" measured at Hawk Ridge.
2 miles south-southwest of Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  11.0" measured in the Lincoln Park neighborhood
Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  10.9" measured at the National Weather Service

Arnold, MN (St. Louis county)  11.5"
3 miles northwest of Cloquet, MN (Carlton county)  10.5"
7 miles northwest of Two Harbors, MN (Lake county)  9.9"
6 miles east of Solon Springs, WI (Douglas county)  8.2"
Two Harbors, MN (Lake county)  8.0"
Wrenshall, MN (Carlton county)  7.8"
5 miles southeast of Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca county)  7.5"
Park Falls, WI (Price county)  7.5"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI (Burnett county)  7.5"
Bayfield, WI (Bayfield county)  7.5"
Solon Springs, WI (Douglas county)  7.2"
6 miles northeast of Cloverdale, WI (Douglas county)  7.1" measured at the Mouth of the Brule.
Phillips, WI (Price county)  7.0'
Hawthorne, WI (Douglas county)  7.0"
Maple, WI (Douglas county)  6.8"
Leech Lake, MN (Cass county)  6.5"
Floodwood, MN (St. Louis county)  6.5"
Mercer, WI (Iron county)  5.8"
Silver Bay, MN (Lake county)  5.5"
Ashland, WI (Ashland county)  5.3"
Breezy Point, MN (Crow Wing county)  5.0"
Beaver Bay, MN (Lake county)  5.0"
Moose Lake, MN (Carlton county)  5.0"
4 miles south of Bruno, MN (Pine county)  4.3"
12 miles northeast of Grand Marais, MN (Cook county)  4.0"
Webb Lake, WI (Burnett county)  4.0"
Chisholm, MN (St. Louis county)  4.0"
Northome, MN (St. Louis county)  3.6"
Askov, MN (Pine county)  3.5"
International Falls, MN (Koochiching county)  3.2"
Finland, MN (Lake county)  3.1"

...RECORD EVENT...

0.33" of precipitation fell at Duluth, Minnesota on Monday, December 20th, 2010 which establishes a new 24 hour precipitation record.  The previous record for December 20th occurred in 2008 and in 1884 with 0.27" of precipitation.

Note:  6.0" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota on Monday, December 20th, 2010 which was just 0.8" shy of the daily snowfall record of 6.8" which was set in 2008.

Weather history:

On this date in 1989:  A record low temperature of -28 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Broad area of low pressure averaging 1016 mb covered most of Northern and Central Wisconsin late This Afternoon.  Plenty of moisture wrapping around this system kept cloudy skies and areas of snow in local area Today, the heavier snowfall has been confined to the North Shore of Lake Superior This Afternoon with visibilities at times dropping below a mile.  There has also been some patchy freezing drizzle throughout our area Today.  High temperatures were in the 20s to lower 30s which is above average for late December.  Winds Today were out of the north, east, or southwest under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb flow was becoming N/NW over the Upper Midwest late Today with an upper level trough and a couple upper level lows covering Central Canada and the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery.  A zonal flow was in place in the Plains with an upper level ridge covering the Southern Plains where temperatures Today topped out in the 70s and 80s!  Deep 500mb troughs covered areas west of the Rockies through the Eastern half of the Pacific Ocean with another 500mb trough in place across the Northeast U.S./Eastern Canada per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.

Winter Weather Headline information.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

*WINTER STORM WARNING* until 12 AM CST Tonight for Southern Cook county MN...Southern Lake county MN...Southern St. Louis county MN...Carlton MN...Douglas WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...and Iron WI.

*WINTER STORM WARNING* until 6 PM CST This Evening for Central St. Louis county MN.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY* until 12 AM CST Tonight for Northern Lake county MN...and Northern Cook county MN.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY* until 6 PM CST This Evening for Pine county MN...Burnett county WI...Washburn county WI...Sawyer county WI...and Price county WI.

Tonight:

Low pressure will redevelop in Southeastern Wisconsin Tonight with high pressure well to our northwest.  Mostly cloudy skies with areas of light snow and flurries will linger in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight, there might also be some patchy freezing drizzle mixed in especially This Evening.  Additional snowfall accumulations will be under an inch.  Lows Tonight will be in the teens and 20s with some single digits possible in western-northern areas if skies can clear later in the night.  Winds will be out of the north or east under 15 mph.

...Concerning the lake effect snow potential Tonight...

Temperatures will remain marginal for pure lake effect snow along the North and South Shore of Lake Superior Tonight.  Surface temperatures will remain in the 25-30 degree range closer to Lake Superior with water temperatures generally around 35 degrees while 850 mb temperatures hold around -8 degrees C.  There will be abundant low level moisture in place, however, thanks to the low to our south-southeast, so the threat for moderate lake enhanced/effect snow bands will likely continue most of the night along the North Shore of Lake Superior as winds remain out of the E/NE.  By late Tonight the winds will become N/NE which will shift the lake snow threat to the South Shore.  Additional snowfall accumulations of 1-4" are possible near Lake Superior Tonight.

As far as storm totals go, most areas will have had between 3-8" of accumulation with the exception to this being in and around the Twin Ports where snowfall totals of 10 to as much as 14" of snow are expected.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

High pressure will be centered to our west/northwest during this period.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected on Wednesday with scattered flurries possible.  Lake effect snow showers are a threat as well mainly along the South Shore of Lake Superior during the Morning hours with another inch or so of accumulation possible south/east of the city of Superior.  Highs on Wednesday will be mainly in the 20s with lows Wednesday Night in the single digits below to around 10 above zero.  North or northwest winds are forecast during this period under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Thursday through the upcoming weekend looks rather quiet for our local area as high pressure builds in from Manitoba Province while a low pressure system passes through the Southern Plains, then up the East Coast this weekend and early next week.  There might be some flurries at times late this week and this weekend, but no major snow events are expected at this time.  High temperatures for Thursday and Friday will be in the teens and 20s with low temperatures in the single digits and teens Thursday Night and Friday Night.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*WINTER STORM WARNING*
Timing:  Until 12 AM CST Tonight.

.Tonight...  Occasional light snow with some heavier snow showers possible.  Patchy freezing drizzle, mainly This Evening.  Additional snowfall accumulations of 1-3" possible with storm totals of 10-14".  Low 20 to 25.  Wind east to northeast around 12 mph, becoming north to northeast toward dawn.

.Wednesday...  Scattered snow showers and flurries.  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.  Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 18 to 23.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Christmas Eve...  Partly sunny.  High 15 to 20.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Christmas Day...  Partly cloudy.  High 15 to 20.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow:

High:  20 degrees
Low:    3 degrees

Tim