Tuesday, November 30, 2010

11/30/10: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:57 PM CST, Tuesday, November 30th, 2010

...Another winter storm affects portions of the Northland, but snow amounts varied greatly...  In the end, snow totals ended up higher than forecasted from Duluth (away from Lake Superior) north through the Iron Range and south to parts of Carlton county.  Snow totals closer to Lake Superior were pretty much in line with what was forecasted...

Note:  Snow continues to come down late This Afternoon, thus the totals represented below may not reflect the final numbers.  Higher snow totals are in bold.

Breezy Point, MN (Crow Wing county)  3.0"
Saginaw, MN (St. Louis county)  9.0"
Cloquet, MN (Carlton county)  7.0"
Holyoke, MN (Carlton county)  7.6"
4 miles south of Bruno, MN (Pine county)  7.0"
5 miles north of Virginia, MN (St. Louis county)  7.0"
4 miles south of Sawyer, MN (Carlton county)  6.9"
Fort Ripley, MN (Crow Wing county)  5.5"
Nashwauk, MN (Itasca county)  5.3"
Wrenshall, MN (Carlton county)  5.0"
5 miles southeast of Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca county)  3.0"
Pine River, MN (Cass county)  3.0"
South Range, WI (Douglas county)  2.5"
3 miles north of Pine City, MN (Pine county)  2.5"
Littlefork, MN (Koochiching county)  2.4"
7 miles south of Bigfork, MN (Itasca county)  1.3"
Brule, WI (Douglas county)  1.0"
Sarona, WI (Washburn county)  0.5"

5 miles northwest of Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  8.1" thru 2:53 PM CST...NWS total.
Proctor, MN (St. Louis county)  9.5"
2 miles west of Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  5.3" measured in the Duluth Heights neighborhood
7 miles east-southeast of Superior, WI (Douglas county)  1.3" thru 11:15 AM CST, measured near the mouth of the Amnicon River.
West Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  Around 2.0"

Peak wind gusts from Today...Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

*Silver Bay, MN (Lake county)  49 mph non-thunderstorm wind gust at 12:40 PM CST.
*2 miles south of Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  48 mph non-thunderstorm wind gust measured on the Blatnik Bridge at 10:37 AM CST.
*3 miles north of French River, MN (St. Louis county)  40 mph non-thunderstorm wind gust at 10:52 AM CST.
*Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  46 mph non-thunderstorm wind gust at 10:54 AM CST.
*Knife River, MN (Lake county)  47 mph non-thunderstorm wind gust at 12:10 PM CST.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Strong low pressure of 994 mb was centered just northwest of Lake Superior as of 3 PM with cold air and gusty west/northwest winds of 15-30 mph occurring on the backside of this storm Today.  Temperatures which were in the 20s and 30s at Midnight last night have fallen into the teens and 20s Today with wind chills of 10 below to 10 above zero.  Some snow also fell Today with some bands of moderate to heavy snow affecting portions of Northeast/Eastern Minnesota and far Northwest Wisconsin due to some meso-scale processess in the form of gravity waves/standing waves near Lake Superior.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500 mb trough covered the Plains with an upper level low lifting slowly northeast through the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.  110 knot mid level jet and a 140+ knot upper level jet were found ahead of this storm from Louisana to Michigan late This Afternoon per RUC model analysis.

...Winter Weather Headline information...Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

*WINTER STORM WARNING* until 9 PM CST Tonight for Northern Cook...Northern Lake...St. Louis...Carlton...Koochiching...and Itasca counties Minnesota and for Douglas county Wisconsin.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY* until 9 PM CST Tonight for Southern Cook and Southern Lake counties Minnesota.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY* until 6 PM CST Tonight for Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...and Pine counties Minnesota and for Bayfield...Burnett...Washburn...and Sawyer counties Wisconsin.

Note:  Snowfall storm totals will vary greatly and range from 1-3" near Lake Superior in Northeast Minnesota with 4-10" totals with isolated 10-12" amounts for most other areas in Northern/Eastern Minnesota.  Snow totals in Northwest Wisconsin will range from 1-3" with higher totals along the South Shore due to possible lake effect snow through Tomorrow Night.

Tonight:

Deep low pressure of around 990 mb will reach Northern Ontario Province by dawn.  Mostly cloudy skies will linger behind this low Tonight with areas of snow showers and flurries, additional snow accumulations should be an inch or less.  Lows will be in the single digits and teens with northwest or west winds at 10-20 mph with higher gusts.  Wind chills will range from around 5 above to 15 below Tonight while the gusty winds lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow.  Note:  Several of the HRRR model runs from Today have shown another localized moderate-heavy band of snow forming over Western Lake Superior Overnight while shifting southwest into Northwest Wisconsin after 1 AM.  Bayfield and Douglas counties Wisconsin as well as Northeast Pine/Eastern Carlton counties in Minnesota could be impacted by this band of heavier snow late Tonight...A quick 1-3" of accumulation is possible if this band develops.  Based on model projections, it appears that this area of snow will remain south/east of Duluth/Superior, but it could be a close call.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Low pressure reaches Hudson Bay/Northeastern Canada during this period.  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with some more snow showers and flurries are expected in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tomorrow with 1-3" of accumulation possible, mainly along the South Shore of Lake Superior.  Looks dry Tomorrow Night, but a few snow showers could continue in the snowbelts of Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the teens and lower 20s with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits below to above zero.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 10-25 mph on Wednesday and under 20 mph Wednesday Night.

Extended Forecast:

Dry weather is expected for Thursday and Friday with high temperatures generally in the teens both days with lows Thursday Night and Friday Night in the single digits below to single digits above zero.  The forecast for this weekend is up in the air at the moment...Low pressure is expected to pass west/south of our local area with some snow associated with this system possibly affecting portions of our local area depending on the track this low takes.  Also, there have been some indications for an inverted trough and a wind shift to the E/NE near Lake Superior this weekend and that combined with cold air in place may result in some lake effect snowfall for the North and South Shore.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*WINTER STORM WARNING*
Timing:  Until 9 PM CST Tonight.

.Tonight...  Breezy with areas of blowing snow.  Occasional snow showers and flurries under mostly cloudy skies.  New snow accumulations of 1-2" possible.  Storm totals of 9-11" away from Lake Superior and 1-3" closer to Lake Superior.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind northwest to west at 15 to 30 mph.  Lowest wind chills around 10 below zero.

.Wednesday...  Breezy with snow showers or flurries at times, otherwise considerable cloudiness.  High 15 to 20.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.  Lowest wind chills from zero to 10 below.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 15 to 20.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low zero to 5 below.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 15 to 20.

.Friday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 5 to 10.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  Snow showers or flurries possible.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Today:

High:  28 degrees
Low:  13 degrees

Tim

Monday, November 29, 2010

11/29/10: WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE INFORMATION

Issued at 5:02 PM CST, Monday, November 29th, 2010

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

*Timing:

Until Noon CST Tuesday.

*Counties included in the warning:

Koochiching MN...Northern Itasca MN...and Cass MN...

*Some cities included in the warning:

International Falls MN...Northome MN...Togo MN...Cass Lake MN...Walker MN...and Leader MN...

*Discussion:

Snow, heavy at times will occur in Northern Minnesota Tonight with snow continuing at times into Tuesday.  Some freezing drizzle could mix with the snow This Evening.  In addition to the snow, expect northwest winds to increase with gusts to 25 mph developing by Tuesday.  The snow will lead to icy roads and dangerous driving conditions.

*Snowfall totals of 4-8" are expected in the warning area by Tuesday Afternoon.

A winter storm warning for snow means snow accumulation is anticipated and that snowfall rates of one inch per hour or greater can be expected at times.  If you must travel exercise extreme caution and allow extra time to reach your destination.  Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time and have a working cell phone in case you become stranded.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

*Timing:

Until Noon CST Tuesday.

*Counties included in the advisory:

Cook MN...Lake MN...St. Louis MN...Southern Itasca MN...Crow Wing MN...Aitkin MN...Pine MN...and Carlton MN...

*Some cities included in the advisory:

Grand Marais MN...Silver Bay MN...Isabella MN...Two Harbors MN...Duluth MN...Cotton MN...Ely MN...Hibbing MN...Floodwood MN...Grand Rapids MN...Brainerd MN...Hill City MN...Aitkin MN...McGregor MN...Pine City MN...Hinckley MN...Moose Lake MN...and Cloquet MN.

*Discussion:

Expect a messy mixture of rain, snow, and drizzle to change to all snow Tonight away from Lake Superior with some snow, falling temperatures, and increasing winds for Tuesday.  The rain close to Lake Superior will mix with and gradually change over to snow late Tonight or early Tuesday.  Expect roads to become icy due to the snow, water on the roads will also freeze by Tuesday Morning as temperatures drop.

*Snowfall totals of 2-4" are possible by Tuesday away from Lake Superior with around 1-2" possible close to Lake Superior.

A winter weather advisory for snow means that accumulating snow will cause travel difficulties.  Be prepared for snow covered roads and reduced visibility and use caution while driving.  Allow extra time to reach your destination.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

*Timing:

Midnight CST Tonight until Noon CST Tuesday.

*Counties included in the advisory:

Douglas WI...Bayfield WI...Burnett WI...Washburn WI...and Sawyer WI.

*Some cities included in the advisory:

Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Cable WI...Danbury WI...Grantsburg WI...Siren WI...Minong WI...Shell Lake WI...Hayward WI...and Exeland WI...

*Discussion:

A messy mixture of snow, rain, and drizzle will gradually turn to all snow by Tuesday Morning with some snow lingering into Tuesday Afternoon.  Roads will become icy because of the snow and mixed precipitation Tonight.  Falling temperatures will also occur on Tuesday resulting in any remaining wet roads to become icy.  Use extreme caution if you have travel plans Tonight and Tuesday in Northwestern Wisconsin.

*Snowfall totals of 1-3" are possible in the advisory area by Tuesday Afternoon.

Tim

11/29/10: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:49 PM CST, Monday, November 29th, 2010

High temperature report for Sunday, November 28th, 2010.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.  Temperatures on Sunday were 10 to nearly 20 degrees above normal for late November.

Brainerd, MN:  45 degrees
Grand Marais, MN:  40 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  40 degrees
Ashland, WI:  44 degrees
Hayward, WI:  42 degrees
Eveleth, MN:  41 degrees
Longville, MN:  43 degrees
Moose Lake, MN:  45 degrees
Hinckley, MN:  46 degrees
Siren, WI:  44 degrees
Phillips, WI:  45 degrees
Bruno, MN:  42 degrees
Floodwood, MN:  41 degrees
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  41 degrees
Gurney, WI:  43 degrees
Upson, WI:  42 degrees
Danbury, WI:  46 degrees
Solon Springs, WI:  43 degrees

Weather tidbits:

*Sunday's high temperature of 38 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota was the first time since November 19th with a maximum temperature above freezing, the high temperature on the 19th was 34 degrees.

*A trace or more of snow fell everyday from November 13th-27th (15 days) at Duluth, Minnesota.  This was the longest streak of such an occurrance since a 32 day stretch which occurred from December 17th through January 17th, 1994...Snowfall during that period was 41.4"!  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 1000 mb has moved into Southwestern Iowa as of 3 PM with a cold front centered in Western Minnesota.  Warm air remained in place north of the low and east of the cold front Today with high temperatures in the lower to middle 30s in west/northwest parts of our local area with mid 30s to near 40 degree temps in Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast-Eastern Minnesota.  Moisture streaming north out of the Central Plains combined with the lift provided by the low to our south has caused precipitation to break out This Afternoon...Locations west of Interstate 35 have seen snow or a mix of rain and snow This Afternoon with far Northern Minnesota seeing mainly snow...Precipitation has been generally in the form of rain in parts of Northwest Wisconsin This Afternoon.  Winds Today were out of the southeast or northeast under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A large upper level trough was in place from the Rockies into the Northern and Central Plains per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.  A potent upper level low was heading northeast out of Eastern Nebraska/Western Iowa late Today with a strong upper level jet of 120-140 knots in Central Texas.

Tonight through Tuesday Night:

Low pressure over Southwest Iowa This Afternoon will move northeast, reaching Northern Wisconsin Tomorrow Morning, reaching Northern Lake Superior by Tomorrow Evening.  Pressures with the low will drop to between 991-993 mb during the day Tuesday as a strong mid/upper level jet max >120 knots heads northeast into the Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley.

Tonight:  Snow will be widespread west and northwest of the Iron Range...Including cities such as International Falls, Northome, Bigfork, and Cass Lake.  The snow could be heavy at times in these areas.  Expect a rain/snow mix for Northeast and Eastcentral Minnesota,  gradually turning to all snow from west to east during the night.  Northwest Wisconsin including areas near Lake Superior will see mainly rain Tonight with some snow gradually mixing in with the rain late Tonight.  Low temperatures Tonight will be in the 20s and 30s with south, east, or north winds under 20 mph.

Colder air will overspread the area from southwest to northeast on Tuesday as 850 mb temperatures drop to the teens below zero while high temps which will start in the 20s and 30s early Tomorrow drop to the teens for most areas by Tomorrow Afternoon.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the single digits and teens.

Occasional snow will linger on Tuesday on the backside of the low with some rain still possible early in the day in Northwest Wisconsin.  Snow showers and flurries are expected for Tuesday Night as well.

Winds Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night will become north or west at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible.

*Forecasted snowfall totals from Tonight through Tuesday*

4-8" accumulations from International Falls, south to Bigfork and Cass Lake...including the counties of Koochiching, Itasca, and Cass MN...

2-4" accumulations for Crow Wing, Aitkin, Pine, Carlton, St. Louis, Lake, and Cook counties MN...Lower amounts close to Lake Superior.

Around 1-3" of accumulation will be possible for Northwest Wisconsin...Including the counties of Douglas, Burnett, Washburn, Bayfield, Ashland, Iron, Sawyer, and Price.

Note:  Roads which will likely start out wet Tonight especially in Eastern Minnesota, including the Twin Ports and in Northwest Wisconsin could freeze as temperatures drop Overnight into Tuesday Morning...Vehicle doors could also become frozed shut due to water which may freeze because of either falling temperatures or due to a change over to snow.

Extended Forecast:

Deep low pressure averaging 990 mb will lift north into Hudson Bay Canada on Wednesday, some lingering snow showers and flurries will continue in our area on Wednesday before things dry out from Wednesday Night to Friday.  High temperatures will generally be in the teens for Wednesday and Thursday with low temperatures in the single digits both nights.  Looking ahead, not much going on for our neck of the woods, the system for this coming weekend has been trending farther south with each new model run, also there are some trends that the upper level pattern could become quite blocky by next week which wouldn't be typical of a La Nina pattern, will be interesting to see how this all unfolds in coming days.  Note:  The 12z EUROPEAN model from Today has quite a bit of warm air moving into the Upper Midwest next week with widespread 30s and 40s possible, nothing is certain that far out in time, but it could happen.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Timing:  6 PM CST Tonight until Noon CST Tuesday.

.Tonight...  Occasional rain and drizzle mixing with and changing to snow This Evening away from Lake Superior with occasional snow continuing Overnight along with some patchy freezing drizzle.  Occasional rain and drizzle closer to Lake Superior, possibly mixing with or changing to snow.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph, becoming west Overnight.

.Tuesday...  Breezy and turning colder.  Occasional snow showers which could be mixed with freezing drizzle early.  High 30 to 35 early, falling to the teens.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.  Total snowfall accumulations of 2-4" away from Lake Superior and around 1-2" closer to Lake Superior.  Lowest wind chills of zero to 10 below.

.Tuesday Night...  Breezy.  Snow showers and flurries at times.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.  Lowest wind chills in the teens below.

.Wednesday...  Flurries possible.  Partly sunny.  High 15 to 20.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 15 to 20.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low zero to 5 above.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 15 to 20.

Normal temperatures for Today:

High:  28 degrees
Low:  14 degrees

Tim

Sunday, November 28, 2010

11/28/10: WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE INFORMATION

Issued at 4:28 PM CST, Sunday, November 28th, 2010

...All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota...

*WINTER STORM WATCH*

*Timing:

Monday Evening through Tuesday Morning.

*Counties included in the watch:

Koochiching MN...Itasca MN...Cass MN...Crow Wing MN...Aitkin MN...Pine MN...Carlton MN...St. Louis MN...Lake MN...and Cook MN...

*Some cities included in the watch:

International Falls MN...Bigfork MN...Grand Rapids MN...Cass Lake MN...Walker MN...Brainerd MN...Hill City MN...Aitkin MN...McGregor MN...Pine City MN...Hinckley MN...Moose Lake MN...Cloquet MN...Duluth MN...Floodwood MN...Cotton MN...Hibbing MN...Ely MN...Crane Lake MN...Two Harbors MN...Silver Bay MN...Isabella MN...Lutsen MN...Grand Marais MN...Hovland MN...and Grand Portage MN...

*Discussion:

A complex low pressure system will head northeast into the Central Plains on Monday before lifting into Western or Central Wisconsin Tuesday Morning, then into Western or Central Lake Superior by Tuesday Afternoon.  Warm air in place to the north and east of this low will result in rain or a mixture of rain and snow from Northeast and Eastern Minnesota through all of Northwest Wisconsin while snow falls along and west of the Iron Range.  Precipitation will spread in from the south Monday Afternoon and Monday Evening with precipitation lingering through Tuesday before ending by Tuesday Night.  Colder air wrapping into the area of low pressure will cause the rain or rain/snow mix to change to all snow in Northwest Wisconsin, Eastern and Northeast Minnesota on Tuesday while snow continues along and west of the Iron Range.

There continues to be some uncertainty in regards to the storm track, timing, and the temperature profile of the atmosphere, thus changes to the forecast can be expected during the next 24 hours.

*At this time the potential does exist for snowfall accumulations to reach 6 or more inches over most of the watch area with lower totals expected near Lake Superior.

*In addition to the snow, winds will increase out of the northwest on Tuesday with wind gusts possibly reaching 25 mph.  This will cause some blowing and drifting snow in open areas.

A winter storm watch means there is the potential for significant accumulation of snow that may impact travel and commerce.  You are encouraged to stay current with the latest weather information regarding this developing winter storm via local television, radio, the internet, or NOAA weather radio.

Tim

Saturday, November 27, 2010

11/27/10: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:42 PM CST, Saturday, November 27th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 1998:  A record high temperature of 60 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure of 1022 mb moved off to our south/east Today with a southerly flow developing in our area on the backside of that high.  Partly to mostly sunny skies occurred Today with high temperatures ranging from the upper teens to the middle 20s.  Winds turned into the south/southeast Today under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A vigorous upper level trough covered Eastern Canada with a westerly flow aloft in place over the Upper Midwest while a new upper trough with 90-120 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls tracks through the Western U.S. per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.

Tonight:

Partly cloudy skies will be found in our area with warm advection continuing thanks to southerly winds.  Lows Tonight will be in the single digits and teens, but temperatures will slowly rise and by dawn expect mainly teens and 20s across our area.  South or southeast winds will continue Tonight under 20 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

Low pressure will be centered over the Rockies and Western High Plains during this period with southerly winds, milder temperatures, and a strong southerly low level jet of 40-50 knots spreading north into the Upper Midwest.  850 mb temperatures are forecast to rise to between +2/+6 degrees C to end the weekend which will result in daytime highs rising into the 30s on Sunday with a few southern locales possibly inching close to 40 degrees!  Lows Sunday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected during this period with south or southeast winds from 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Early next week's storm still needs to be watched closely as there has been a subtle trend with the various models during the past 24 hours to have a wetter system wrapping up over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes during the Monday-Tuesday time frame.  This system will have a good supply of warm air with little if any arctic air in place north of the surface low...The end result to that could be more of a mix or even rain event for Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota with mixed precip or snow trending toward all snow in Northcentral Minnesota.  The best potential for precipitation looks to be from Monday Afternoon or Monday Evening, lasting into Tuesday before some flurries and snow showers linger for Tuesday Night as low pressure exits to our east/northeast.  Note:  The HPC forecasters have outlined Northeast Minnesota including the Twin Ports and extreme Northwest Wisconsin in a Slight-Moderate risk for at least 4 inches of snow and a Slight risk for at least 8 inches of snow during the Monday Night/Tuesday time period.  High temperatures on Monday will be mainly in the 30s with lows Monday Night in the teens in western areas with 20s and 30s elsewhere.  Highs Tuesday will start in the 20s and 30s, then temperatures will fall to the teens and 20s by late Afternoon.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the single digits and teens. 

The other system for late next week/next weekend, December 3rd-5th continues to show up on the long range GFS and EUROPEAN forecast models Today with a more northerly storm track predicted by both models.  At this time there looks to be enough cold air in place which will lead to an all snow event and if the EUROPEAN model verifies, then areas near Lake Superior could be hit especially hard as E/NE winds develop resulting in some lake enhanced snowfall either Friday or Saturday.  That storm is about a week away, and the forecast models will likely change the track and the timing during the next few days, but it will be a system to watch in coming days to see what the models do with it.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Mostly cloudy.  Light rain or snow developing especially late.  High 33 to 38.

.Monday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow and flurries.  Rain is also possible early.  Low 25 to 30.

.Tuesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow and flurries.  High 30 to 35 early with temperatures falling to the 20s.

.Tuesday Night...  Flurries possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow:

High:  29 degrees
Low:  14 degrees

Tim

Friday, November 26, 2010

11/26/10: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 6:15 PM CST, Friday, November 26th, 2010

Snowfall report from Wednesday and Thursday, November 24th-25th.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota. 

Note:  The higher snow totals are in bold.

Kabetogama, MN (St. Louis county)  11.3"
International Falls, MN (Koochiching county)  8.5"
Littlefork, MN (Koochiching county)  7.7"
21 miles north of Grand Marais, MN (Cook county)  5.5"
8 miles south of Bigfork, MN (Itasca county)  5.5"
3 miles west of Bayfield, WI (Bayfield county)  5.0"
4 miles south of Bruno, MN (Pine county)  4.0"
Saginaw, MN (St. Louis county)  4.0"
South Range, WI (Douglas county)  4.0"
Oulu, WI (Bayfield county)  4.0"
Cotton, MN (St. Louis county)  3.8"
10 miles south-southeast of Superior, WI (Douglas county)  3.8"
Lutsen, MN (Cook county)  3.3"
Floodwood, MN (St. Louis county)  3.0"
Ely, MN (St. Louis county)  3.0"
Lake Nebagamon, WI (Douglas county)  2.8"
Embarrass, MN (St. Louis county)  2.5"
Butternut, WI (Ashland county)  2.5"
Danbury, WI (Burnett county)  2.0"
Gile, WI (Iron county)  1.8"
3 miles west-southwest of Hinckley, MN (Pine county)  1.7"
2 miles west of Hayward, WI (Sawyer county)  1.5"
Ashland, WI (Ashland county)  1.5"
4 miles north of Grantsburg, WI (Burnett county)  1.2"

Note:  The official snowfall total at Duluth, Minnesota (NWS location)  4.2"

Weather tidbits:

*Record 24 hour snowfall total at International Falls, Minnesota on Wednesday, November 24th, 2010.  6.5" of snow fell which broke the previous record of 3.8" which was set in 1995.

*Today marks the 6th day in a row with at least .1" of snowfall at Duluth, Minnesota and the 14th day in a row with at least a trace of snow.

*Two day precipitation/snowfall total at Duluth, Minnesota...11/24-11/25:  0.34"/4.2"

*Average monthly temperature at Duluth, Minnesota (thru the 25th)  32.0 degrees/2.7 degrees Above Normal

*As of Today, November 26th, 2010...36.2% of the U.S. was covered by snow, this is up from 5.8% at this time last month.  This same time last year, only 10.3% of the U.S. was covered by snow.  Source:  NOHRSC

*At 6 AM CST Today the temperature at Grand Forks, North Dakota was -10 degrees while 271 miles to the west-southwest (3 hours) at Bismarck, North Dakota the temperature was 33 degrees!

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Strong low pressure averaging 986 mb was centered over Northeast Ontario Province as of 6 PM with a chilly northwesterly flow along with mostly cloudy skies and scattered snow showers and flurries lingering in our area on the backside of this storm.  Highs Today were in the middle teens to lower 20s with west or northwest winds from 10-25 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A powerful 500 mb low with H5 temperatures to -42 degrees C and 12 hour 500 mb height falls of 210-300 meters covered Eastern Canada Today with an upper trough progressing through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.  A plume of mid/high level moisture extended from the Central Pacific to the Northwest half of the U.S. Today per water vapor satellite imagery while an upper level trough covered the Gulf of Alaska and far Western Canada.

Tonight:

Deep low pressure will head into Northeast Canada with high pressure off to our west.  Scattered snow showers and flurries with little if any accumulation will come to an end This Evening in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, otherwise expect partly-mostly cloudy skies Tonight with lows in the single digits below to above zero.  Winds Tonight will be out of the west or northwest under 20 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

High pressure will be over the Upper Midwest on Saturday before it moves off to our east by Saturday Night.  Partly cloudy skies are forecast during this period with highs Tomorrow generally in the 20s with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits and teens.  Winds will turn to the south under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Dry weather should linger through Sunday and Sunday Night as a new low pressure trough heads into the Rockies and Western High Plains.  A southerly flow will deepen late this weekend which should boost high temperatures into the 30s for most of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with lows Sunday Night in the 20s to around 30 degrees.  Early next week will see an upper trough pass through the Plains and Upper Midwest with a dual low pressure system with one center passing to our west/northwest and another remaining well to our south/east.  This system looks similar to Wednesday's event, although it looks to have less moisture even though there will be a strong 40-50 knot southerly low level jet in place out ahead of it.  Precipitation that falls around our area should be on the light side with the threat for snow or mixed precipitation on Monday turning to some light snow or flurries as colder air moves in Monday Night and Tuesday.  The 12z GFS and NAM forecasts along with the 15z SREF model from Today only have light amounts of precip falling over our area early next week, but the EUROPEAN and GEM-GLOBAL models continue to show heavier amounts of precip across our area...So this system still needs to be watched in case the other models begin to trend toward a wetter solution.  High temperatures on Monday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Monday Night in the teens to lower 20s.  Another system continues to show up on the long range forecast models toward next weekend, December 3rd-5th, but this one might remain too far to our south to give us any snow.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Variable cloudiness.  Scattered snow showers or flurries This Evening.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 20 to 25.  Wind west to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.

.Sunday Night...  Becoming mostly cloudy.  Patchy light freezing drizzle possible Overnight.  Low 25 to 30.

.Monday...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or a mixture of snow, freezing rain, and rain possible.  High 30 to 35.

.Monday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible.  Low 15 to 20.

.Tuesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow:

High:  29 degrees
Low:  15 degrees

Tim

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

11/24/10: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:00 PM CST, Wednesday, November 24th, 2010

Low temperature report for Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth, MN:  6 degrees
International Falls, MN:  -5 degrees
Grand Marais, MN:  -2 degrees
Ely, MN:  -2 degrees
Orr, MN:  -4 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  -6 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  0 degrees
Littlefork, MN:  -2 degrees
Northome, MN:  -1 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  -3 degrees
Kabetogama, MN:  -3 degrees
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  -7 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 1006 mb has moved into Eastern North Dakota as of 3 PM with a secondary low of 1000 mb over Northeast Kansas.  A strong S/SE low level jet of 40-55 knots was in place across the Upper Midwest Today out ahead of this storm.  Warm and moist advection combined with very strong lift has led to the development of a band of snow from Northern through Central to Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, some of the snow has been heavy at times with visibilities of 1/4 mile or less.  The other part of this storm is the arctic plunge which was still out over the Northern Plains and Northern Rockies This Afternoon.  4 PM temperatures ranged from 5 degrees at Bismarck, North Dakota to zero at Williston while it was 7 degrees at Mobridge, South Dakota and 5 below zero at Glasgow, Montana.  Our area was on the "warm" side of this system with high temperatures in the middle 20s to lower 30s.  Gusty east to southeast winds also affected our area Today with wind speeds of 10 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph closer to Lake Superior.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A strong upper level jet >130 knots stretched from the Southwest U.S. through the Central Plains to the Northeast U.S. per RUC model analysis while a powerful upper level low/upper trough shift slowly toward the east out of the Northern Rockies.  This system is disjointed, meaning that the energy is lagging behind the strong jet stream winds, and the fact that this system isn't becoming negatively tilted will keep it from turning into a major winter storm for the Upper Midwest.

Tonight:

Low pressure will reach Southwestern Ontario Province by dawn.  Intense forcing associated with a 40-60 knot S/SE low level jet will result in about a 4-6 hour period of snow which will be heavy at times across Northern/Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  There could also be some embedded thundersnow This Evening as these heavy snow bands move through.  Note:  Some lightning did occur a few hours ago in Central Minnesota with heavy snow.  Hourly snowfall rates of 1-2" is certainly possible in some areas This Evening.  The snow will taper off from south to north Overnight with the exception being in extreme Northern Minnesota through the Arrowhead of Minnesota where some snow will likely linger the entire night.  As the forcing and low level jet subside from southwest to northeast This Evening, the potential for areas of freezing drizzle will grow later in the night with some light ice accumulations of a few hundreths of an inch possible by dawn.  Lows Tonight will range widely with 20s and 30s in Northern-Northeast Minnesota while Western-Southern areas drop into the single digits.  Winds Tonight will shift from the east/southeast to the south/southwest at 10-20 mph with higher gusts.

Thanksgiving Day and Night:

Low pressure will deepen to around 993 mb during this period as it passes to our northwest/north.  Arctic air air gusty winds will overspread our area Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with highs dropping or holding steady in the single digits and teens with lows Tomorrow Night from 5 below to 10 above.  Winds will be out of the west at 10-20 mph with stronger gusts.  Wind chills will range from around 5 below to 20 below zero Thursday and Thursday Night.  Expect some areas of snow showers and flurries to linger around our area during this period as the powerful upper level low tracks east into the Upper Midwest.

...Total snowfall accumulations from Tonight through Thursday Night...

*2-5" of snow is expected for most of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with the bulk of the accumulations occurring Tonight.  A band of 5-10" of snow is possible northeast of Duluth, along the North Shore of Lake Superior where E/SE winds contribute to lake enhanced snow for Tonight.

...Winter weather headline information...

*Winter Storm Warning* until Noon CST Thursday for Lake and Cook counties Minnesota.

*Winter Weather Advisory* until Noon CST Thursday for Koochiching...Northern Itasca...Northern and Central St. Louis counties Minnesota.

*Winter Weather Advisory* until 4 AM CST Thursday for Cass...Southern Itasca...Crow Wing...Aitkin...Pine...Carlton...and Southern St. Louis counties Minnesota and for Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...Iron...Burnett...Washburn...Sawyer...and Price counties Wisconsin.

Extended Forecast:

Strong low pressure of around 990 mb will move into Eastern Canada on Friday with some flurries or snow showers still possible in our area on the backside of this low.  High temperatures on Friday will be mainly in the teens with lows Friday Night in the single digits and teens.  Dry weather should return Saturday and Saturday Night with highs in the 20s with lows in the single digits and teens.  The next storm that may impact our area's weather could occur early next week, Monday-Tuesday (November 29th/30th).  The EUROPEAN and GEM-GLOBAL models are showing a more intense area of low pressure with a favorable track to bring a winter storm or rain/snow mix to Northwest Wisconsin and Northern-Eastern Minnesota.  The GFS model for the past few runs has been showing a weaker and faster moving system with a swath of generally light snow affecting parts of the Upper Midwest for early next week.  Both the GFS and EUROPEAN models are hinting at another storm that may hit the Upper Midwest and Plains sometime next weekend, December 3rd-5th.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Timing:  Until 4 AM CST Thursday.

.Tonight...  Snow before Midnight.  Snow could be heavy at times before 9 PM.  Areas of freezing drizzle through the night with lingering flurries or snow showers Overnight.  Total snowfall accumulations of 2-5".  Low 5 to 10.  Wind east to southeast at 15 to 25 mph, becoming southwest at 10 to 20 mph Overnight.

.Thanksgiving Day...  Breezy and cold.  Scattered flurries and snow showers.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 26 to 31 with temperatures falling to the single digits.  Wind west to southwest at 15 to 25 mph.  Lowest wind chills of zero to 10 below.

.Thursday Night...  Breezy and cold with flurries and snow showers at times.  Mostly cloudy.  Low zero to 5 above.  Wind west at 15 to 25 mph.  Lowest wind chills of 10 below to 25 below.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High 13 to 18.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 20 to 25.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 27 to 32.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow:

High:  30 degrees
Low:  16 degrees

Tim

11/24/10: WINTER STORM WARNING INFORMATION

Issued at 7:17 AM CST, Wednesday, November 24th, 2010

All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

...All previously issued winter weather advisories remain in effect...refer to previous updates from Tuesday Evening for this information...

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

*Timing:

3 PM CST This Afternoon until Noon CST Thursday.

*Counties included in the warning:

Cook MN...and Lake MN...

*Some cities included in the warning:

Grand Portage MN...Hovland MN...Grand Marais MN...Lutsen MN...Forest Center MN...Isabella MN...Silver Bay MN...Finland MN...Two Harbors MN...and Larsmont MN...

*Discussion:

Snow, heavy at times will move into the Arrowhead of Minnesota by late This Afternoon with snow continuing Tonight before tapering off on Thursday.  Hourly snowfall rates could reach 1-2" at times Tonight.  Total snowfall accumulations of 6-10" are expected by Thursday.

A winter storm warning for heavy snow means heavy snow accumulation is anticipated and that snowfall rates of one inch per hour or greater can be expected at times.  Expect snow and ice covered roads and visibility less than a quarter mile.  If you must travel exercise extreme caution and allow extra time to reach your destination.  Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time and have a working cell phone in case you become stranded.  Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle including a flashlight, food and water.  If you choose to travel be aware that you may become stranded and that it may take hours for help to arrive.

Tim

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

11/23/10: *UPDATED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE INFORMATION*

Issued at 4:40 PM CST, Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010

...All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota...

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

*Timing:

Noon CST Wednesday until 4 AM CST Thursday.

*Counties included in the advisory:

Cass MN...Crow Wing MN...Aitkin MN...Pine MN...Carlton MN...Southern St. Louis MN...Southern Itasca MN...Douglas WI...Burnett WI...and Washburn WI...

*Some cities included in the advisory:

Cass Lake MN...Walker MN...Pine River MN...Brainerd MN...Aitkin MN...Hill City MN...McGregor MN...Pine City MN...Hinckley MN...Moose Lake MN...Cloquet MN...Duluth MN...Floodwood MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Grantsburg WI...Danbury WI...Minong WI...and Spooner WI...

*Discussion:

Snow will overspread the advisory area Wednesday Afternoon with snow continuing into Wednesday Evening before ending from south to north Wednesday Night.  The potential does exist for heavy snow bursts to develop which could lead to hourly snowfall rates of 1-2" from late Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Evening.  The snow could also mix with sleet or freezing drizzle at times, especially in Northwest Wisconsin, west to the Twin Ports and south along the Interstate 35 corridor.

*Snowfall totals of 2-6" are expected by early Thursday Morning with some light ice accumulations also possible.

A winter weather advisory for snow means that accumulating snow will cause travel difficulties.  Be prepared for snow covered roads and reduced visibility and use caution while driving.  Allow extra time to reach your destination.  Some freezing drizzle is also possible.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

*Timing: 

Noon CST Wednesday until Noon CST Thursday.

*Counties included in the advisory:

Koochiching MN...Northern Itasca MN...and Central/Northern St. Louis MN...

*Some cities included in the advisory:

International Falls MN...Northome MN...Bigfork MN...Togo MN...Hibbing MN...Ely MN...and Crane Lake MN...

*Discussion:

Snow possibly heavy at times will spread into these areas Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Evening with snow continuing Overnight before tapering off on Thursday.

*Total snowfall accumulations of 3-6" are expected in the advisory area by Thursday.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

*Timing: 

3 PM CST Wednesday until 4 AM CST Thursday.

*Counties included in the advisory:

Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Iron WI...Sawyer WI...and Price WI...

*Some cities included in the advisory:

Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Cable WI...Ashland WI...Butternut WI...Hurley WI...Mercer WI...Hayward WI...Exeland WI...Winter WI...Park Falls WI...Phillips WI...and Ogema WI...

*Discussion:

Snow or a mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will develop in these areas by mid to late Afternoon Wednesday with precipitation continuing Wednesday Night before ending after Midnight.

*Snowfall totals of 2-4" are possible by early Thursday Morning with some light ice accumulation also possible.

*WINTER STORM WATCH*

*Timing: 

Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday Morning.

*Counties included in the watch:

Lake MN...and Cook MN...

*Some cities included in the watch:

Larsmont MN...Two Harbors MN...Silver Bay MN...Finland MN...Isabella MN...Lutsen MN...Grand Marais MN...Hovland MN...and Grand Portage MN...

*Discussion:

Snow will overspread these areas Wednesday Afternoon with snow persisting Wednesday Night before tapering off during the day Thursday.  Heavy snowfall rates of 1-2" an hour could develop especially Wednesday Evening.

*Total snowfall accumulations of 6-12" are possible in the watch area by Thursday.

Tim

11/23/10: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:03 PM CST, Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010

Snowfall report from Monday, November 22nd, 2010.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN. 
Note:  The higher totals are in bold.

Butternut WI (Ashland county)  1.0"
International Falls MN (Koochiching county)  7.1"
5 miles south of Herbster WI (Bayfield county)  3.5"
8 miles northeast of Cook MN (St. Louis county)  3.5"
Gile WI (Iron county)  4.0"
2 miles south of Northome MN (Koochiching county)  7.6"
9 miles northeast of Hayward WI (Sawyer county)  1.5"
Embarrass MN (St. Louis county)  4.5"
Culver MN (St. Louis county)  4.0"
Montreal WI (Iron county)  4.0"
5 miles northwest of Canyon MN (St. Louis county)  5.0"
Gurney WI (Iron county)  3.5"
Cornucopia WI (Bayfield county)  3.5"
Cotton MN (St. Louis county)  5.2"
Silver Bay MN (Lake county)  2.3"
Grand Rapids MN (Itasca county)  4.9"
2 miles south-southeast of Kabetogama MN (St. Louis county)  8.7"
Ely MN (St. Louis county)  3.6"
Beaver Bay MN (Lake county)  2.5"
3 miles east of Orr MN (St. Louis county)  9.1"
11 miles north of Brule WI (Douglas county)  3.5"
Ashland WI (Ashland county)  2.5"
Upson WI (Iron county)  3.5"
7 miles south of Bigfork MN (Itasca county)  7.0"
Port Wing WI (Bayfield county)  4.0"

5 miles northwest of Duluth MN (St. Louis county)  3.6...NWS total.
3 miles east of Superior WI (Douglas county)  1.7"
West Duluth MN (St. Louis county)  Around 1.5"

Low temperature report for Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

International Falls MN:  5 degrees
Brainerd MN:  9 degrees
Grand Marais MN:  7 degrees
Ely MN:  9 degrees
Orr MN:  9 degrees
Bigfork MN:  7 degrees
Pine River MN:  7 degrees
Northome MN:  6 degrees
Babbitt MN:  5 degrees
Floodwood MN:  6 degrees
Duluth MN:  11 degrees
Superior WI:  12 degrees

Weather tidbits:

*The period from November 13th-23rd has featured only 2 days with a maximum temperature above freezing (32 degrees) at Duluth, Minnesota.  High temperature on the 13th was 38 degrees and on the 19th the high temperature was 34 degrees.

*How's this for a temperature contrast:  At 1pm CST Today the temperature at Edinburg, Texas was 89 degrees while at Cut Bank, Montana the temperature was 12 below zero.  This is a difference of 101 degrees!

*38 severe weather reports including 8 tornadoes (4 in Northern Illinois and 4 in extreme Southern Wisconsin) occurred on Monday, November 22nd, 2010 across parts of Missouri, Illinois, and extreme Southeastern Wisconsin per Storm Prediction Center.

*Tornadoes in Wisconsin on November 22nd, 2010 were the first reported November tornadoes in 39 years.
*Heaviest snow in 25 years on Monday at Seattle, Washington.
*Heaviest winter rain in almost 74 years on Monday at Fairbanks, Alaska.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure which affected our weather 24 hours ago has already moved into Northeastern Canada This Afternoon with a ridge of high pressure (1026 mb) covering the Upper Midwest while several areas of low pressure averaging 998-1004 mb tracks through the Central-Northern Rockies.  Clouds and lingering flurries/snow showers early in the day gave way to mostly sunny skies across our area by This Afternoon with high temperatures only in the middle teens to lower 20s which is about 10-15 degrees below normal for late November.  Note:  At 3 PM CST Today the temperature was 13 below at Kindersley, Saskatchewan.  11 below at Saskatoon, Saskatchewan.  And 10 below at Great Falls, Montana.  Winds in our local area were variable or west-northwest Today but weren't a big factor with wind speeds under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

It's an active, but rather progressive weather pattern as one strong upper low/trough heads northeast through Quebec Province while the next potent upper level low/upper trough marches east through the Western U.S. per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.  A potent upper level trough >120 knots was in place over the Southern Rockies and just offshore from Washington state and Oregon.

Tonight:

Ridge of high pressure will pass off to our east by dawn.  Mostly clear skies This Evening along with light winds and a snow pack will allow temperatures to tank with readings before Midnight dropping into the single digits below to above zero...By late Tonight, a southerly flow will start to develop which will result in some mid/high level clouds and warm advection.  By dawn, temperatures should be in the single digits and teens above zero.  Winds Tonight will shift to the south/east under 15 mph.  With the winds turning to the southeast, the potential does exist for a few late night lake effect snow showers along the North Shore of Lake Superior from Two Harbors to Grand Portage, little if any accumulation is expected though.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

A broad trough of low pressure will move into the Plains and Upper Midwest during this period with a couple areas of low pressure lifting N/NE from the Western High Plains to the Northern Plains.  A very strong southerly low level jet of 40-60 knots is forecast to develop along and ahead of this system which will pump warm/moist air north into our area.  The combination of the 850 mb jet and a warm advection pattern will cause snow to break out across our local area by Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Night...The snow will, however, come to an end from south to north by late Wednesday Night as a dry slot moves up from the southwest.  The intense forcing out ahead of this low may result in heavy convective type snow bursts late Wednesday Afternoon and Evening over Northeast/Eastern Minnesota and far Northwestern Wisconsin...Snowfall rates of 1-2" an hour could occur if these bands develop.  The potential also exists for some sleet and freezing drizzle to mix in with the snow especially in Northwest Wisconsin and also close to Lake Superior, and south along the Interstate 35 corridor.  High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 20s and 30s with nearly steady temperatures Wednesday Night.  Winds Tomorrow will be out of the east or southeast at 10-20 mph with higher gusts.  Winds Tomorrow Night will be out of the east, south, or southwest at 10-25 mph.

...Expected snowfall amounts for Wednesday and Wednesday Night...

A general 2-6" of snow is expected to fall in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, with the lower totals occurring around Brainerd and Aitkin, and also from Hayward to Park Falls to Phillips.  Higher amounts of 6-12" are possible especially along the North Shore of Lake Superior, northeast of Duluth.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will deepen to around 992 mb Thursday and Friday as it passes northwest/north of our local area.  Arctic air and gusty winds will overspread Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Thursday and Friday in wake of this low with some lingering snow showers and flurries expected into early Friday.  Highs on Thursday will occur early in the day when temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s, by Thursday Afternoon temperatures will drop into the single digits and teens.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the single digits below to above zero with highs on Friday generally in the teens.  Lows Friday Night will be in the single digits and teens.  The combination of falling temperatures and gusty winds will result in bitter cold wind chills of 5 below to 20 below zero in our area from Thursday Afternoon into Friday Morning.  The next storm that may take aim at the Upper Midwest would be sometime early next week, November 29th-30th.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Timing:  Noon CST Wednesday until 4 AM CST Thursday.

.Tonight...  Clear with skies becoming partly to mostly cloudy late.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind variable, becoming southeast at 5 to 15 mph Overnight.

.Wednesday...  Breezy.  Periods of snow developing during the Afternoon.  The snow could mix with sleet or freezing drizzle.  High 28 to 33.  Wind east to southeast at 15 to 25 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Breezy.  Periods of snow during the Evening which could mix with sleet or freezing drizzle.  Lingering freezing drizzle is possible Overnight.  Total snowfall accumulations of 2-5".  Low 5 to 10.  Wind east to southeast at 15 to 25 mph becoming southwest Overnight.

.Thanksgiving Day...  Breezy and cold.  Snow showers and flurries at times.  High 27 to 32 early with temperatures falling into the single digits.  West winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.  Lowest wind chills of zero to 10 below.

.Thursday Night...  Flurries possible.  Breezy and cold.  Low zero to 5 above.  Northwest wind could occasionally gust to 25 mph.  Lowest wind chills of 10  below to 25 below.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 13 to 18.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow:

High:  31 degrees
Low:  16 degrees

Tim

11/23/10: WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE INFORMATION

Issued at 1:07 PM CST, Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010

...All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota...

*WINTER STORM WATCH*

*Timing:

Wednesday Afternoon through late Wednesday Night.

*Counties included in the watch:

Aitkin MN...Pine MN...Carlton MN...Southern and Central St. Louis MN...Douglas WI...Burnett WI...and Washburn WI...

*Some cities included in the watch:

Hill City MN...Aitkin MN...McGregor MN...Pine City MN...Hinckley MN...Moose Lake MN...Cloquet MN...Duluth MN...Floodwood MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Danbury WI...Grantsburg WI...Minong WI...and Shell Lake WI...

*Discussion:

An area of low pressure is forecast to lift north/northeast from the Plains to the Upper Midwest Wednesday into Thursday.  A period of snow, heavy at times which could mix with freezing drizzle or sleet is expected to overspread the watch area Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Night before precipitation tapers off on Thursday.

*Snowfall rates of 1-2" an hour may occur for a time.  Total snowfall accumulations of up to 6" are possible with light ice accumulations as well.

A winter storm watch means there is the potential for significant accumulation of snow...sleet...or ice that may impact travel and commerce.  You are encouraged to stay current with the latest weather information regarding this developing winter storm via local television, radio, the internet or NOAA weather radio.

*WINTER STORM WATCH*

*Timing:

Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday Morning.

*Counties included in the watch:

Koochiching MN...Itasca MN...Northern St. Louis MN...Lake MN...and Cook MN...

*Some cities included in the watch:

International Falls MN...Northome MN...Bigfork MN...Togo MN...Grand Rapids MN...Hibbing MN...Ely MN...Crane Lake MN...Two Harbors MN...Silver Bay MN...Isabella MN...Lutsen MN...Grand Marais MN...Hovland MN...and Grand Portage MN...

*Discussion:

Snow, heavy at times will spread into the watch area Wednesday Afternoon with snow continuing through Thursday Morning...  Hourly snowfall rates could reach 1-2" at times.  Total snowfall accumulations of 6" or greater is expected in the watch area by Thursday with the greatest amounts forecasted to be along the North Shore of Lake Superior as east to southeast winds result in periods of lake enhanced snowfall.

Tim

Monday, November 22, 2010

11/22/10: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:25 PM CST, Monday, November 22nd, 2010

...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MAY CONTINUE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...

Storm number one which affected Minnesota from Saturday Night into Sunday produced widespread freezing drizzle and light snow.  A spokesperson from MN-DOT told KARE 11 television station that this was the worst ice storm he had seen  in 29 years of working at MN-DOT.  There were hundreds of accidents around Minnesota on Sunday.

Local storm report from Sunday, November 21st, 2010.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

*6:30 AM CST 11/21/10:  Freezing rain.  Cornucopia, WI (Bayfield county)  Thin glaze on surfaces.
*1:53 AM CST 11/21/10:  Freezing rain.  Webster, WI (Burnett county)  Glazed roads
*6:30 AM CST 11/21/10:  1.0" snow.  Northome, MN (Koochiching county)
*6:30 AM CST 11/21/10:  1.5" snow.  Kabetogama, MN (St. Louis county)
*8:00 AM CST 11/21/10:  1.8" snow.  Littlefork, MN (Koochiching county)
*8:00 AM CST 11/21/10:  1.1" snow.  Togo, MN (Itasca county)
*8:00 AM CST 11/21/10:  1.0" snow.  Lutsen, MN (Cook county)
*8:00 AM CST 11/21/10:  Freezing rain.  2 miles west of Hayward, WI (Sawyer county)  Thin glaze on surfaces and roadways
*5:10 PM CST 11/21/10:  Freezing rain.  0.10" ice accumulation.  Icy roads.

3 miles east of Orr, MN (St. Louis county)  3.1" snow
5 miles northwest of Grand Marais, MN (Cook county)  3.0"
International Falls, MN (Koochiching county)  2.9"
Ely, MN (St. Louis county)  3.8"

Note:  At Duluth, Minnesota:  0.11" of precipitation fell on Sunday, November 21st, 2010 with 0.5" of snow.

Storm number two is ongoing...Snowfall totals listed below will continue to climb as additional snow falls This Evening.

2 miles south of Northome, MN (Itasca county)  7.5"
4 miles northeast of Effie, MN (Itasca county)  1.5"
Deer River, MN (Itasca county)  1.0"
Bena, MN (Cass county)  2.0"
Cass Lake, MN (Cass county)  4.0"
Talmoon, MN (Itasca county)  2.0"
Cook, MN (St. Louis county)  3-4"
Kabetogama, MN (St. Louis county)  3.5"
Ray, MN (Koochiching county)  4.0"
3 miles east of Orr, MN (St. Louis county)  4.0"
Bowstring, MN (Itasca county)  3.5"
Duluth, MN National Weather Service (St. Louis county)  0.4" thru 2:49 PM CST...

Storm reports from Today:  Source Tom Skilling/The Weather Channel.

Note:  At 1:00 PM CST Today the temperature was 68 degrees at Chicago's O'Hare Airport.  68 degrees at Rockford, Illinois.  71 degrees at Moline, Illinois while it was 38 degrees at Des Moines, Iowa.  32 degrees at Omaha, Nebraska.  18 degrees at Huron, South Dakota.  10 degrees at Rapid City, South Dakota.  3 degrees at Williston, North Dakota.  And -2 degrees at Great Falls, Montana.

Severe thunderstorms and a few tornadoes developed This Afternoon across parts of Southern Wisconsin and Illinois.  At least two tornadoes have been confirmed so far.  Today marks the first November tornado day since November 15th, 2005.  Since 1990 there had been 6 other November tornadoes, the strongest of which was an F3 on November 19th, 1991.

Before Today, there have only been 3 November tornadoes in Wisconsin, dating back to 1950!

Weather history:

On this date in 2006:  A record high temperature of 52 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 1002 mb was lifting N/NE through Eastern Wisconsin late This Afternoon.  This system has been producing a localized, but very heavy snow band which affected portions of Northcentral Minnesota
Today, snowfall rates under this band have reached 1.0"/hour with visibilities dropping to 1/4 mile at times.  Northwest Wisconsin, back through the Twin Ports, south through the Interstate 35 corridor has seen convective type snow, sleet, and freezing rain showers This Afternoon with thunderstorms even occurring around mid-Afternoon from Bayfield and Ashland, southeast to Hurley, and south through Hayward and Park Falls.  High temperatures Today ranged from the upper teens in western-northwest areas with upper 20s and lower 30s in Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds Today were out generally out of the north, west, or east under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A powerhouse jet stream of 120-140 knots was in place from Kansas to Central Wisconsin late Today per RUC model analysis.  A vigorous upper level trough was pushing E/NE through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest late Today with 12 hour 500 mb height falls of 120 meters!  Another potent upper level low with 150 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls was digging south into the Pacific Northwest This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis

Tonight:

Low pressure will deepen to around 997 mb as it tracks from Eastern Wisconsin to Northeast Lake Superior by dawn.  Snow, heavy at times will continue This Evening in Northern and Northeast Minnesota with areas of light snow, sleet, and freezing drizzle for Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota.  The steady precipitation will end from southwest to northeast later Tonight with some lingering snow showers and flurries continuing Overnight.  As colder air pushes into the area behind this low, expect lake effect snow showers to flare up after Midnight along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin.  Lows Tonight will be in the single digits and teens with winds out of the north or west under 20 mph.

Snowfall totals will range from 4-8" in Northern Minnesota with 1-3" in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin...Amounts of 3-6" are possible, however, in the snowbelts of Northwest Wisconsin.

...Winter Storm Warning...remains in effect until Midnight CST Tonight for Koochiching...Northern Itasca...and Northern St. Louis counties Minnesota.

...Winter Weather Advisory...remains in effect until Midnight CST Tonight for Cook...Lake...Central and Southern St. Louis...Carlton...Northern Aitkin...Southern Itasca counties Minnesota...and for Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...and Iron counties Wisconsin.

...Winter Weather Advisory...remains in effect until 9 PM CST Tonight for Northern Cass county and Pine county Minnesota and for Burnett...Washburn...Sawyer...and Price counties Wisconsin.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Low pressure heads into Northeast Canada during this period with high pressure building into the Upper Midwest which will give us a brief respite from the storminess.  Snow showers or flurries could persist into Tomorrow Morning in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with another 1-2" of snow possible along the South Shore of Lake Superior.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area during this period with highs Tuesday in the teens and 20s with lows Tuesday Night in the single digits and teens.  Winds Tomorrow will be out of the north or west at 10-20 mph with winds shifting to the east Tomorrow Night.

Extended Forecast:

The next storm to affect the Upper Midwest will do so during the Wednesday/Thursday time frame.  This system is looking less ominous compared to previous days, but it still looks to bring a period of snow and possible mixed precipitation to Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Low pressure will track into the Western High Plains/Central Plains on Wednesday with a strong 50 knot southerly low level jet developing ahead of this low.  Low pressure is then forecast to lift north into Westcentral Minnesota Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning before it moves into Northern Lake Superior Thursday Afternoon.  Note:  This is just a preliminary storm track and some changes could occur to during the next 24 hours.  Strong lift north/east of the low should result in the rapid development of winter precipitation in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Night looking like the period of when the higher probabilities of precipitation will occur.  By Thursday and Thursday Night, lingering snow showers/flurries will persist around the low, but any additional accumulation should be on the light side the way it looks now.

Snowfall totals between Wednesday Afternoon and Thursday will range from 2-5", although there remains a possibility for higher amounts of 6" or more, especially in Northern Minnesota and also along the North Shore of Lake Superior where an E/SE wind should lead to some lake enhanced snowfall.  Winter weather headlines for the Wednesday/Thursday event will likely be issued by the National Weather Service.

Temperatures for Wednesday and Wednesday Night will be in the 20s and 30s with temps dropping into the teens and 20s on Thursday.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the single digits below to above zero.

This is still a ways out, but worth a mention as the forecast models are hinting at another storm taking aim at the Upper Midwest early next week (November 28th-30th)  this one could bring another mix bag of snow, rain, and ice to the area.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Timing:  Until Midnight CST Tonight.

.Tonight...  Light snow and flurries.  Total accumulations of 1-2".  Patchy light freezing drizzle This Evening.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday...  Flurries possible early.  Variable clouds.  High 17 to 22.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Clouding up.  Snow possible later in the day.  High 26 to 31.

.Wednesday Night...  Occasional snow which could mix with sleet or freezing rain.  Low 25 to 30.

.Thanksgiving Day...  Occasional snow showers and flurries.  High 25 to 30 with falling temperatures into the teens.

.Thursday Night...  Flurries possible.  Low zero to 5 above.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 13 to 18.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow:

High:  31 degrees
Low:  17 degrees

Tim

11/22/10: WINTER STORM WARNING INFORMATION

Issued at 1:40 PM CST, Monday, November 22nd, 2010

...All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota...

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

*Timing:

Until Midnight CST Tonight.

*Counties included in the warning:

Koochiching MN...Northern Itasca MN...and Northern St. Louis MN...

*Some cities included in the warning:

International Falls MN...Big Falls MN...Northome MN...Bigfork MN...Togo MN...Crane Lake MN...Orr MN...and Ely MN...

*Discussion:

Snow, heavy at times will continue into This Evening before tapering off Overnight.  Snowfall rates could approach an inch an hour through early This Evening.

*Snowfall totals of 4-8" are expected in the warning area by late Tonight.

A winter storm warning for heavy snow means heavy snow accumulation is anticipated and that hourly snowfall rates of one inch per hour or greater can be expected at times.  Expect snow and ice covered roads and visibility less than one quarter in spots.

Tim

11/22/10: WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE INFORMATION

Issued at 10:12 AM CST, Monday, November 22nd, 2010

...All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota...

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

*Timing:

Until Midnight CST Tonight.

*Counties included in the advisory:

Itasca MN...Koochiching MN...Northern Aitkin MN...Carlton MN...St. Louis MN...Lake MN...Cook MN...Douglas WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Iron WI...

*Some cities included in the advisory:

Grand Rapids MN...Squaw Lake MN...Bigfork MN...Togo MN...Northome MN...Big Falls MN...International Falls MN...Hill City MN...Moose Lake MN...Cloquet MN...Duluth MN...Floodwood MN...Cotton MN...Hibbing MN...Ely MN...Crane Lake MN...Forest Center MN...Silver Bay MN...Two Harbors MN...Lutsen MN...Grand Marais MN...Hovland MN...Grand Portage MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Cable WI...Ashland WI...Butternut WI...Hurley WI...and Mercer WI...

*Discussion:

Snow will continue to expand in coverage in the advisory area through mid-Afternoon with snow continuing into This Evening with it tapering off from southwest to northeast Tonight.  Some of the snow will mix with or change to sleet, freezing rain, or freezing drizzle at times Today mainly in Northwestern Wisconsin.  Snowfall rates could approach or exceed 1" an hour Today in Northern Minnesota.

*Total snowfall accumulations of 2-5" are expected by This Evening with the greatest amounts centered in Northern Minnesota.  Ice accumulations could reach 0.10" in Northwest Wisconsin.

This winter weather advisory for mixed precipitation means a mixture of freezing rain...sleet...and snow is expected.  Accumulations of snow and ice are expected on untreated roads and sidewalks.  Anyone with travel plans should be prepared for slippery roads and reduced visibility.  Slow down when driving and allow extra stopping distance because you may lose control of your vehicle if you try to slow down or stop quickly.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

*Timing:

Until 9 PM CST Tonight.

*Counties included in the advisory:

Cass MN...Crow Wing MN...Southern Aitkin MN...Pine MN...Burnett WI...Washburn WI...Sawyer WI...and Price WI...

*Some cities included in the advisory:

Cass Lake MN...Walker MN...Leader MN...Brainerd MN...Aitkin MN...McGrath MN...Pine City MN...Hinckley MN...Danbury WI...Grantsburg WI...Minong WI...Spooner WI...Shell Lake WI...Hayward WI...Loretta WI...Exeland WI...Park Falls WI...Phillips WI...and Ogema WI...

*Discussion:

Snow or a mixture of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and freezing drizzle will continue in the advisory area through early This Evening before tapering off by mid-Evening.

*Total snowfall accumulations of 1-3" with ice accumulations up to 0.10" can be expected in these areas by This Evening.

Tim

 

Sunday, November 21, 2010

11/21/10: Sunday's Weather Update

Issued at 4:11 PM CST, Sunday, November 21st, 2010

...Tonight...  Expect areas of light freezing drizzle, light snow, and patchy fog to continue in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Evening before precipitation ends as the first low pressure system exits to our north/east.  Temperatures Tonight will be in the teens and 20s across the local area with variable winds under 15 mph.

...Monday and Monday Night...  As one system moves out, a new one will move in...  Low pressure will track from the Central Plains, reaching Northern Wisconsin early Monday Evening, then Central/Northern Lake Superior by Monday Night.  Strong forcing will develop across the Upper Midwest during this period and this should result in a widespread snow event for our local area.  The snow will spread in from the southwest with locations from Walker and Brainerd down to Pine City seeing some snow move in Tomorrow Morning, then it will overspread the Twin Ports, Iron Range, Arrowhead, and Northwest Wisconsin between late Monday Morning into mid-Afternoon.  The snow will then taper off from southwest to northeast Monday Evening/Overnight.  There could be just enough warm air in place to cause some precipitation type issues, mainly in Northwest Wisconsin...The snow could mix with freezing rain or sleet in those areas.

Note:  *Snowfall accumulations for Monday and Monday Night will range from 1-3" in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, but there will likely be a band of 3-5" somewhere in Northcentral or Northeastern Minnesota.  Winter weather headlines may be needed for this event on Monday.

High temperatures Tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits, teens, and lower 20s.  Winds will be out of the north or east shifting to the north/west Monday Night.  Wind speeds will remain under 20 mph.

...Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day...  Model agreement continues to be poor during this time frame with each new model run jumping around quite a bit with the track of the low/upper level low for mid week.  The trend with the last few EUROPEAN model runs is for a more west/northwesterly storm track while the GFS remains rather consistent with Saturday's run...  The 12z NAM from Today is much slower and would hold off on bringing precipitation to our area until sometime Wednesday Night or not until Thursday.

This looks to be a very complicated system and further changes to the track/timing/temperatures will probably occur during the next day or so.

At this point it looks like portions of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will see a 3-6" snowfall from Wednesday into Thursday...These totals could be higher or end up lower depending on how things set up...Also if this system deepens more and tracks farther W/NW, then we could be dealing with some mixed precipitation for some parts of our area.

Note:  The 12z GFS model from Today continues to crank out widespread 12+" snowfall totals for our area Wednesday and Thursday, this seems overdone especially since there seems to be a trend toward a more westerly storm track (at least for the moment)

Tim

11/21/10: WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE INFORMATION

Issued at 7:15 AM CST, Sunday, November 21st, 2010

...All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota...

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

*Timing:

Until 6 PM CST This Evening.

*Counties included in the advisory:

Southern Itasca MN...Cass MN...Crow Wing MN...Aitkin MN...Carlton MN...Southern and Central St. Louis MN...Lake MN...and Cook MN...

*Some cities included in the advisory:

Grand Rapids MN...Cass Lake MN...Walker MN...Leader MN...Brainerd MN...Hill City MN...Aitkin MN...McGregor MN...Moose Lake MN...Cloquet MN...Duluth MN...Floodwood MN...Hibbing MN...Cotton MN...Two Harbors MN...Isabella MN...Silver Bay MN...Lutsen MN...Grand Marais MN...and Grand Portage MN...

*Discussion:

A mixture of light snow and light freezing rain/freezing drizzle along with areas of fog will be found in the advisory area through early This Evening.  Snowfall accumulations of 1-3" are possible with ice accumulations under 0.10".  The Minnesota Department of Transportation reports that roads are snow covered and slippery This Morning.

A winter weather advisory for snow means that accumulating snow will cause travel difficulties.  Be prepared for snow covered roads and reduced visibility.  Use caution while driving.  Allow extra time to reach your destination.

*Winter Weather Advisory* remains in effect until 6 PM CST This Evening for Koochiching county MN...Northern Itasca county MN...and Northern St. Louis county MN...

*Freezing Rain Advisory* remains in effect until Noon CST Today for Pine county MN...Douglas county WI...Bayfield county WI...Ashland county WI...Iron county WI...Burnett county WI...Washburn county WI...Sawyer county WI...and Price county WI...

Slow down if you have travel plans across the northland Today.

Note:  Another system is due to arrive on Monday and will linger into Monday Evening.  Current indications are for 1-4" of snow to accumulate with the higher totals occurring around the Brainerd lakes area, northeast to the Arrowhead of Minnesota.

The third system is still showing up on the latest model runs...But there remains some timing and track issues.  This system would hit the area Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day.  Snowfall amounts of 3-6" are possible...Perhaps even a bit more depending on how this system sets up...

Stay tuned to later forecasts/updates for additional information.

Tim

Saturday, November 20, 2010

11/20/10: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:03 PM CST, Saturday, November 20th, 2010

Low temperature report for Saturday, November 20th, 2010.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth, MN:  10 degrees
Two Harbors, MN:  10 degrees
Grand Marais, MN:  5 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  9 degrees
Cloquet, MN:  9 degrees
Superior, WI:  14 degrees
Siren, WI:  12 degrees
Northome, MN:  9 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  9 degrees
Floodwood, MN:  9 degrees
Winter, WI:  12 degrees

December 2010 outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center on Thursday, November 18th, 2010.

For Duluth, Minnesota:

*Equal chances for Above Normal, Below Normal, or Normal Temperatures and Precipitation.

December 2010 through February 2011 outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center on Thursday, November 18th, 2010.

For Duluth, Minnesota:

*33% chance for Below Normal Temperatures.
*Equal chances for Above Normal, Below Normal, or Normal Precipitation.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Arctic high pressure 1032-1034 mb covered Central Canada while a warm front was in place Southern Kansas to Central Indiana...Temperatures near and south of that warm front were in the 60s and 70s Today while mid teens to mid 20s were common in our area.  Winds Today have been shifting to the east/northeast with speeds under 15 mph.  Skies were mostly cloudy Today with some lake effect flurries/light snow showers at times from Castle Danger and Two Harbors through Duluth, and earlier in the day along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin.  Little if any accumulation has occurred though due to a dry airmass in place.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A fast southwest flow aloft has developed across the Upper Midwest as a large and potent upper level trough digs south-southeast from Washington state to California.  Intense upper level jet 120-150 knots was in place across Central-Eastern Canada/Northeast U.S. Today per RUC model analysis with a 110 knot jet max covering portions of the Central Rockies late Today.

Tonight:

An area of low pressure will move out into the Western High Plains while high pressure remains to our north.  A 20-30 knot southerly low level jet will develop out ahead of the Plains low, this will result in warm advection spreading north into our area during the night.  Areas of light snow will develop Tonight across our area with up to an inch of accumulation possible by dawn, especially north of Highway 2.  Some freezing rain or freezing drizzle will begin to mix with the snow toward dawn, especially from Hayward and Park Falls south to Phillips.  Note:  Scattered lake effect snow showers and flurries will end in the Twin Ports This Evening, with scattered lake snow affecting the North Shore of Lake Superior through the night, although accumulations should remain minimal (<1").  Lows Tonight under mostly cloudy skies will remain steady in the teens and 20s with easterly winds under 20 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

Low pressure will track northeast out of the Central Plains, reaching Western-Northern Lake Superior by late Sunday Night.  Milder air will surge north on Sunday with 850 mb temperatures moderating to zero/+4 degrees C in Northwest Wisconsin, these areas will see a mixture of light snow and light freezing rain/freezing drizzle mix with and turn to light rain by Sunday Afternoon as temperatures warm.  Locations north/northwest of a line from Leader to the Arrowhead of Minnesota should remain cold enough for mainly snow on Sunday while in between expect snow or a mix of precipitation from Brainerd and Aitkin through the Twin Ports and south through the Interstate 35 corridor.  High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 20s and 30s with easterly winds at 10-25 mph.  The threat for snow or mixed precipitation will end from southwest to northeast Sunday Evening with lingering flurries possible for some during the Overnight hours.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the teens and 20s with winds shifting to the north/west under 20 mph.

Total snowfall accumulations of 2-5" are possible between late Tonight and Sunday Evening for Northern Minnesota with around an inch or two possible from the Twin Ports, Northwest Wisconsin, and Eastcentral Minnesota.

Ice accumulations in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota should remain under 0.10".

Note:  Winter weather headlines are in effect for parts of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from late Tonight through Sunday and additional headlines may be issued for other parts of our area for Sunday.

Extended Forecast:

As one low pressure system pulls away, a new one will take aim at the Upper Midwest, although this time the track should be a little farther south/east compared to Sunday's low.  Some snow should overspread our local area on Monday with snow tapering off from southwest to northeast Monday Night.  Moisture and the speed of this system should limit snow amounts, but a 1-4" snowfall is still possible especially south of a line from Bemidji to Hibbing to Silver Bay.  Note:  The 12z NAM from Today is a tad slower in moving this system through, and if this does pan out, then snow totals may end up higher.  High temperatures on Monday will be in the teens and 20s with a few 30s possible in Northwest Wisconsin.  Lows Monday Night will be in the single digits and teens.  Tuesday and Tuesday Night look mainly dry at this time with low pressure pulling away from our area.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Tuesday Night in the single digits and teens.

Wednesday and Thursday needs to be watched carefully for a potential winter storm in the Upper Midwest/Western Great Lakes.  Although the forecast models are coming into better agreement Today, there continues to be some disagreement in how fast the storm moves through, and also the track of the low...This will have implications on who sees snow or possible mixed precipitation, also with wind speeds, and just how much snow or mixed precipitation falls across our area.

Early estimates would have a 6" or greater snowfall affecting portions of Northwest Wisconsin, Northeast and Eastcentral Minnesota around mid week, but again this could change in coming days.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible at times.  Accumulations under an inch.  Temperatures nearly steady from 18 to 23, a little warmer near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday...  Occasional light snow which will mix with or change to light freezing rain.  Drizzle also possible closer to Lake Superior.  Snow accumulations of 2" or less.  High 30 to 35.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind becoming west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Occasional snow developing, especially during the Afternoon.  Accumulations of 1-3" possible.  High 25 to 30.

.Monday Night...  Light snow and flurries, mainly early.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Wednesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow possible.  High 22 to 27.

Normal temperatures for Today:

High:  32 degrees
Low:  19 degrees

Tim

11/20/10: WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE INFORMATION

Issued at 3:28 PM CST, Saturday, November 20th, 2010

...All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota...

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

*Timing:

Midnight CST Tonight until 6 PM CST Sunday.

*Counties included in the advisory:

Koochiching MN...Northern Itasca MN...and Northern St. Louis MN...

*Some cities included in the advisory:

International Falls MN...Big Falls MN...Northome MN...Bigfork MN...Togo MN...Ely MN...Crane Lake MN...and Orr MN...

*Discussion:

Snow will overspread the advisory area late Tonight with occasional snow continuing on Sunday before tapering off Sunday Evening.  Total snowfall accumulations of 2-5" are expected by Sunday Night.  Roads may become snow covered and slippery late Tonight through Sunday.

A winter weather advisory means that accumulating snow will cause travel difficulties.  Be prepared for snow covered roads and reduced visibility and use caution while driving.  Allow extra time to reach your destination.

*FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY*

*Timing:

3 AM CST Sunday until Noon CST Sunday.

*Counties included in the advisory:

Sawyer WI...Price WI...

*Some cities included in the advisory:

Hayward WI...Loretta WI...Exeland WI...Park Falls WI...Phillips WI...and Ogema WI...

*Discussion:

Areas of light freezing rain, freezing drizzle, and light snow will develop in the advisory area late Tonight and will continue into Sunday Morning before temperatures warm enough to cause the precipitation to change to rain.  Total ice accumulations will be under one tenth of an inch.  A thin layer of ice will cause untreated roads and walkways to become slippery and dangerous.

A freezing rain advisory means that periods of light freezing rain will cause travel difficulties.  Be prepared for slippery roads.  Slow down and use caution while driving.

Tim

Friday, November 19, 2010

11/19/10: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:49 PM CST, Friday, November 19th, 2010

Local storm report from Friday, November 19th, 2010.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

*8:30 AM CST 11/19/10:  Freezing rain.  20 miles north of Tofte, MN (Cook county)  Thin coating of ice on top of about 0.8" of snow.
*8:36 AM CST 11/19/10:  Freezing rain.  Emily, MN (Crow Wing county)  Freezing drizzle resulting in glare ice including on county road 1 near Emily.
*8:22 AM CST 11/19/10:  2.0" snow.  Grand Portage, MN (Cook County)
*8:05 AM CST 11/19/10:  2.5" snow.  11 miles northeast of Grand Marais, MN (Cook county)
*6:43 AM CST 11/19/10:  1.0" snow.  Kabetogama, MN (St. Louis county)
*6:00 AM CST 11/19/10:  1.0" snow.  Cook, MN (St. Louis county)
*5:51 AM CST 11/19/10:  1.4" snow.  International Falls, MN (Koochiching county)
*5:44 AM CST 11/19/10:  Freezing rain.  0.10" ice accumulation.  25 miles northwest of Duluth, MN at Lake Nichols (St. Louis county)
*4:06 AM CST 11/19/10:  Freezing rain.  2 miles north of Virginia, MN (St. Louis county)  Freezing rain reported by the state highway patrol north of Virginia, south of Angora, along Highway 53.
*4:09 AM CST 11/19/10:  Freezing rain.  2 miles south of Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca county)  Roads coated with ice.  Reported by MNDOT officials south of Grand Rapids on US Highway 169.
*2:42 AM CST 11/19/10:  2.0" snow.  Grand Marais, MN (Cook county)
*2:42 AM CST 11/19/10:  1.5" snow.  6 miles northwest of Grand Marais, MN (Cook county)

Weather tidbits:

*Today's high temperature climbed above freezing at Duluth, Minnesota.  This ended our streak of 5 straight days with a maximum temperature of 32 degrees or lower (11/14-11/18).  The last time we put together 5 consecutive freezing or sub-freezing high temperature days was on February 12th-16th, 2010.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Rapid changes took place Today as low pressure of 1000 mb passes east through Southern Ontario Province.  Warm air surged northeast out ahead of this low This Morning and resulted in some snow and freezing drizzle which affected the North half of Minnesota into the Northeast part of the state.  A cold front attached to the low pushed east through our area Today and was followed by falling temperatures.  Highs Today were generally in the 30s with a few locales close to 40 degrees in Northwest Wisconsin back through Superior and Downtown Duluth.  Temperatures This Afternoon have dropped into the upper teens and 20s in Northern/Eastern Minnesota.  Winds shifted from the southwest to northwest Today at 10-20 mph with higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Zonal flow aloft was in place over the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery/RUC model analysis.  A powerful mid/upper level jet covered areas from the Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies, east through the Upper Midwest and Northeast U.S.  Note:  Winds at 18,000 feet were sitting at 90 knots late Today at Duluth, Minnesota with winds at 30,000 feet of 120 knots per RUC model analysis.  Also of interest is the deep upper level trough which was digging south through the Eastern Pacific Ocean, this will lead to some snow in Seattle, Washington and Portland, Oregon this weekend and early next week.

Tonight:

Arctic air will continue to dump into our local area between a low to our northeast and high pressure to our northwest.  850 mb temperatures of -8/-16 degrees C will result in low temperatures dropping to the single digits and teens with some of the typical cold spots possibly dropping a few degrees below zero!  Winds Tonight will be out of the northwest at 10-20 mph with higher gusts This Evening.  Wind chills from mid Evening through the Overnight hours will range from around 10 above to 10 below zero.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with some snow showers or flurries possible along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin and also on the larger inland lakes in Minnesota...Including Lake Winnie, Lake Mille Lacs, and perhaps even Island Lake.  Snow accumulations Tonight should remain under an inch.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

Arctic high pressure will slide off to our north/east during this period with the 500 mb flow becoming west/southwest.  Warm advection will begin especially by Saturday Night and this process should aid in the development of some overrunning light snow by late Saturday Afternoon into Saturday Night for parts of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Temperatures Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night will be in the teens and 20s with winds out of the north or northwest Saturday Morning, becoming east at 10-20 mph Tomorrow Afternoon and Tomorrow Night.  With the surface winds going to the east and with cold air in place, some lake effect snow showers could develop Tomorrow Afternoon and Night near Lake Superior, including the Twin Ports.  Any lake snow that does develop should be on the light side.

Extended Forecast:

Southwest flow aloft is forecast to stick around into the middle of next week while arctic air builds to our west/northwest with ridging and plenty of warmth well to our southeast.  Strong winds aloft and plenty of jet energy will also be traversing the US from Sunday through Wednesday.  This type of pattern often leads to the development of a strong storm system, and the models over the past few days have shown some hints of this, but with that said there remains plenty of model uncertainty after Monday, so nothing is certain at this time, but there is some potential for a storm system to wrap up in the Plains and head toward the Great Lakes during the Wednesday-Thursday time period.

Before then there will be two low pressure waves that will track out of the Plains and toward the Upper Great Lakes.  The first wave will move through on Sunday bringing with it snow in Northern Minnesota and a mixture of precipitation in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota.  The second system is due next Monday with snow being the main precipitation type since the air should be cold enough by then to support an all snow event.

Snow accumulations from Saturday Night into Sunday Afternoon will range from around an inch from Backus and the Brainerd lakes area, east through Aitkin, Duluth and the Interstate 35 corridor.  Snow totals of 2-4" are possible from Hibbing and Bigfork, north through International Falls to the Arrowhead.

Early indications for Monday's snow event is for similar totals to Sunday, although the main corridor of snow may set up a bit more to the south compared to Sunday's system.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Breezy especially This Evening.  Cold.  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10, a little warmer near Lake Superior.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph, decreasing to 10 to 20 mph.  Lowest wind chills from zero to 10 below.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  Scattered lake effect snow showers or flurries possible during the Afternoon.  Little if any accumulation expected.  High 20 to 25.  Wind north at 10 to 15 mph becoming east during the Afternoon.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional light snow or flurries.  Accumulations of 1" or less.  Temperatures nearly steady from 20 to 25.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional light snow which will mix with or change to light freezing rain at times.  Snow accumulations around 1" or less.  High 30 to 35.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 20 to 25.

.Monday...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow possible.  High 25 to 30.

.Monday Night...  Flurries possible.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Today:

High:  33 degrees
Low:  19 degrees

Tim