Sunday, October 31, 2010

10/31/10: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:55 PM CDT, Sunday, October 31st, 2010

Hope everyone has a fun and safe Halloween!!!

Low temperature report for Sunday, October 31st, 2010.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth, MN:  23 degrees
Brainerd, MN:  22 degrees
Hayward, WI:  20 degrees
Silver Bay, MN:  25 degrees
Ely, MN:  21 degrees
Pine River, MN:  21 degrees
Aitkin, MN:  21 degrees
Siren, WI:  21 degrees
Superior, WI:  25 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  15 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A ridge of high pressure averaging 1026 mb was beginning to push off to our north/east late Today.  This high kept our area precipitation free Today with some occasional cloudiness along with some sunshine.  Highs Today ranged from the middle to upper 30s from the Iron Range to the Arrowhead with 40s common for the rest of us.  Winds Today were variable in direction under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Water vapor satellite imagery shows that a northwest flow aloft dominated the Upper Midwest on this last day of October.  An upper low/upper trough covered Central-Eastern Canada, south through the Upper Great Lakes, to the Northeast U.S.

Tonight through Monday Night:

High pressure will be centered to our north/east during this period with dry weather for our local area along with partial cloudiness at times.  Low temperatures Tonight and Monday Night will be in the 20s and 30s, but some teens are possible in the traditional cold spots.  Highs for Monday will be in the 40s to around 50 degrees.  Winds will be out of the south or southwest under 20 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

A cold front will push southeast across the Upper Midwest from late Tuesday through early Wednesday, this front combined with a 110+ knot mid/upper level jet stream blasting south/southeast out of the Northern Plains will support the risk for a few hours of rain showers in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from late Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Evening.  A breezy southwesterly wind will be in place out ahead of this boundary on Tuesday with wind gusts possibly exceeding 25 mph!  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will swing around to the northwest by Tuesday Night and Wednesday with cold advection developing from mid to late week as a very amplified weather pattern sets up across the U.S. thanks in part to a storm system affecting the Eastern U.S. later this week.  A northerly flow will develop across our area late this week while 850 mb temperatures drop to between -6/-12 degrees C.  Low temperatures Tuesday Night will be mainly in the 30s with high temperatures on Wednesday in the 30s and 40s with lows Wednesday Night in the 20s and 30s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind variable around 12 mph or less.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 44 to 49.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph. 

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 28 to 33.  Wind south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 47 to 52.

.Tuesday Night...  Variable cloudiness.  Showers possible.  Low 35 to 40.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday...  Variable cloudiness.  High 40 to 45.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 38 to 43.

Normal temperatures for Today:

High:  44 degrees
Low:  28 degrees

Tim

Saturday, October 30, 2010

10/30/10: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:10 PM CDT, Saturday, October 30th, 2010

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

An area of low pressure along with a cold front has pushed south/east out of our local area This Afternoon with high pressure pushing east out of the Northern Plains.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies with high temperatures generally in the 40s were found in our area Today with north, northwest, or east winds around 20 mph or less.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500 mb flow prevailed in the Upper Midwest Today in between an upper level low which was nearly stationary in Northeastern Canada and an upper level trough which was pushing east through the Western U.S. per water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight through Sunday Night:

High pressure of 1020-1024 mb will move into the Upper Midwest through Sunday before it shifts slightly to our north/east for Sunday Night.  Dry weather is expected during this period with partly to mostly cloudy skies Tonight and early Sunday giving way to partly cloudy skies Tomorrow Afternoon and Night.  Low temperatures will be in the 20s and lower 30s Tonight and Tomorrow Night with some teens possible in the typical cold spots.  Highs Tomorrow will be mainly in the 40s, but a few 30s are possible in far Northeast Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the north under 20 mph Tonight and Tomorrow with variable winds under 15 mph Tomorrrow Night.

Extended Forecast:

Early next week continues to look dry for our area with high pressure to our east while a cold front moves southeast into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday.  This boundary will move through our local area sometime Tuesday Afternoon or Evening the way it looks now, for the most part this should be a dry frontal passage, although a few light rain showers can't be ruled out in Northern Minnesota.  The upper level pattern will amplify from mid to late week as a storm system heads up the East Coast while a northerly flow aloft sets up across the Upper Midwest behind this weather system.  The mildest days should occur Monday and Tuesday with high temperatures in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin in the 40s, maybe even some 50s on Tuesday.  Low temps will be mainly in the 30s Monday Night and Tuesday Night.  A cooler pattern is expected to develop between Wednesday and Friday of next week and there could even be a few rain and or snow showers at times next Wednesday or Thursday, but nothing significant is expected at this time.  The exception to this could be along the South Shore of Lake Superior from Bayfield to Ashland to Hurley where some light snow accumulations could develop sometime the middle or end of next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 28 to 33.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 47 to 52.

.Tuesday Night...  Variable cloudiness.  Low 33 to 38.

.Wednesday...  Variable cloudiness.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow:

High:  44 degrees
Low:  28 degrees

Tim

Friday, October 29, 2010

10/29/10: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:28 PM CDT, Friday, October 29th, 2010

Updated information regarding Tuesday's historic storm...Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

The pressure at Bigfork, Minnesota has been adjusted up to 955.2 mb/28.21"/ as a result...Tuesday's storm will go down as the 2nd strongest extratropical storm to ever affect the U.S according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)  The strongest non-tropical storm in U.S. history occurred on January 3rd, 1913 with a pressure of 955.0 mb/28.20"/ at Canton, New York and on March 7th, 1932 at Block Island, Rhode Island.

Low temperature report for Friday, October 29th, 2010.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth, MN:  21 degrees
International Falls, MN:  21 degrees
Brainerd, MN:  23 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  19 degrees
Hayward, WI:  21 degrees
Sky Harbor Airport:  28 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  21 degrees
Pine River, MN:  21 degrees
Superior, WI:  25 degrees
Siren, WI:  23 degrees
Bruno, MN:  21 degrees
Cass Lake, MN:  21 degrees
Littlefork, MN:  23 degrees
Cook, MN:  23 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  16 degrees
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  19 degrees
Butternut, WI:  23 degrees
Upson, WI:  22 degrees
Gordon, WI:  22 degrees

Weather tidbits:

*This Morning's low temperature of 21 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota was the first time since May 9th, 2010 with a minimum temperature lower than 25 degrees.

*38 degree high temperature on October 27th, 2010 at Duluth, Minnesota was the first time since May 7th, 2010 with a high temperature under 40 degrees.

*3.74" of precipitation fell at Duluth, Minnesota during the period from October 23rd-27th.

*7.7" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota on October 26th-27th...Both dates featured record 24 hour snowfall totals, and the 7.7" snow total made it the 4th largest event for an October.

Month to date precipitation total at Duluth, Minnesota:  3.88"/1.63" Above Normal.
Precipitation total since September 1st, 2010 at Duluth, Minnesota:  7.36"/0.98" Above Normal.
Precipitation total since January 1st, 2010 at Duluth, Minnesota:  31.10"/3.37" Above Normal.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Skies were cloudier than expected Today with high temperatures in the upper 30s to middle 40s with southwest areas getting close to 50 degrees late Today.  Winds were out of the south or east under 15 mph.  Surface map at 3 PM CDT featured a broad area of low pressure averaging 1012 mb across the Northern Plains with a tight temperature gradient in place over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  Temperatures were in the lower 60s in Southwest Minnesota and parts of South Dakota Today while 30s and 40s were common around our area.  High pressure of 1016 mb was centered in Western Manitoba Province while a 1026 mb high was located near St. Louis Missouri.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

W/NW 500 mb flow covered the Upper Midwest Today per RUC model analysis with strong upper level winds >110 knots located to our N/NE and also from the Central Rockies, southwest to Central California.  A strong baroclinic zone has become established Today with late Afternoon 850 mb temperatures ranging from +14 degrees C in Southwest Minnesota to zero degrees C in Northeast Minnesota...while -8 degree C H85 temps covered Central Canada with +20 degree C 850 mb temps centered in the Western High Plains Today.

Tonight through Saturday Night:

An area of low pressure with it's warm front and cold front will pass through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Tonight with high pressure building into the area Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night.  Patchy light showers of rain and or snow are possible Tonight and early Tomorrow in extreme Northern Minnesota, otherwise expect generally dry conditions through this period.  Low temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s Tonight and Saturday Night with highs Tomorrow mainly in the 40s, but some areas N/NE of the Iron Range could remain in the mid-upper 30s.

Extended Forecast:

Mainly dry conditions are expected for Sunday and Monday as high pressure moves through the Upper Midwest.  High temperatures will be mainly in the 40s both Sunday and Monday with lows in the 20s and lower 30s.  A cold front moving through our local area around the middle of next week could bring a few rain or snow showers to our area, but other than that not much precipitation is expected through next week the way it looks now.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 28 to 33.  Wind east to southeast around 12 mph, becoming north to northeast late.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 40 to 45.  Wind north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday...  Mostly sunny.  High 40 to 45.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 28 to 33.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 43 to 48.

Normal temperatures for Today:

High:  46 degrees
Low:  29 degrees

Tim

Thursday, October 28, 2010

10/28/10: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:06 PM CDT, Thursday, October 28th, 2010

All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

*Flood Advisory*

*A small stream flood advisory remains in effect until 3:15 PM CDT Friday, October 29th, 2010 for Carlton and Pine counties Minnesota and for Douglas county Wisconsin. 

*As a result of the excessive rainfall from the recent weather system...rivers...streams...and ditches continue to run high or were over their banks leading to some flooding.  As of Thursday Afternoon the following reports have been received.  Carlton county sheriff reported that Cartwright Road in Cloquet, Minnesota is still closed due to flooding and that some culverts may be flooded along the Moose Horn River.  Barnum City Park remains under water.  Pine county sheriff reported that Rush Boulevard in the Hogans Acres Subdivision...southeast of Sturgeon Lake, Minnesota is washed out.  Access to residences along Cathedral Pines Drive in Sturgeon Lake is impacted due to flooding.  Low lying areas adjacent to the Moose Horn River...The Kettle River...and it's tributaries will continue to be impacted.  River levels have crested but will remain high.  In Douglas county the Nemadji River crested last night however the river level remains high.

*Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause elevated levels on small creeks and streams...and ponding of water on country roads and farmland along the banks of creeks and streams.

...Record Event...Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

*The 7.7" of snow that fell at Duluth, Minnesota on the 26th-27th was the 4th greatest snowfall during the month of October.

1st place:  11.5"  October 23rd-25th, 1933.
2nd place:   8.0"   October 23rd, 1995.
3rd place:   7.9"   October 27th-28th, 1966.

Record 24 hour snowfall total at Duluth, Minnesota:

4.3" of snow fell on Wednesday, October 27th, 2010 which broke the previous 24 hour snowfall record of 4.0" which was set in 2003.

Precipitation report from 7 AM CDT Wednesday through 7 AM CDT Thursday.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

International Falls, MN:  0.23"
Brainerd, MN:  0.15"
Hayward, WI:  0.21"
Crane Lake, MN:  0.20"
Siren, WI:  0.15"
Bruno, MN:  0.17"
3 miles east of Wright, MN:  0.40"
Northome, MN:  0.30"
Cook, MN:  0.24"
Grand Rapids, MN:  0.26"
Kabetogama, MN:  0.35"
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  0.30"
Silver Bay, MN:  0.34"
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  0.25"
Butternut, WI:  0.46"
Upson, WI:  0.26"
Danbury, WI:  0.24"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Strong high pressure ridge of 1028-1034 mb covered the Northern and Central Plains Today while the historic storm from Tuesday/Wednesday moves into Northeastern Canada.  A tight pressure gradient continued between the sub 1000 mb low in Northeast Canada and the high off to our west/southwest which resulted in another day of brisk northwest winds of 10-25 mph with a few higher gusts.  Very cool temperatures have invaded the Upper Midwest Today on the backside of the storm, highs Today were only in the 30s to around 40 degrees.  Mostly cloudy skies earlier in the day has given way to increasing amounts of sun, especially in western/southwest parts of our area.  Any lingering flurries or sprinkles were confined to the Morning hours.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest flow aloft was in place over the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery while an upper level trough pushes east through the Great Lakes and Central Canada.

Tonight through Friday Night:

A ridge of high pressure will cover the Plains and Upper Midwest Tonight which combined with decreasing winds and clearing skies will result in a cold fall night.  Low temperatures will drop into the 20s for most areas, but some teens are possible in the traditional cold spots.  Friday and Friday Night will feature partly cloudy skies with winds turning to the southwest on Friday as high pressure shifts off to our south/east.  Winds Friday Night will turn northwest as a weak cold front passes through our area.  High temperatures on Friday should get into the 40s for most areas with lows Friday Night in the 20s and 30s.

Extended Forecast:

Quiet weather is expected for Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Saturday through Monday.  High temperatures for Saturday and Sunday will be mainly in the 40s with low temperatures both nights in the 20s and lower 30s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Becoming partly cloudy.  Low 21 to 25 Inland and from 25 to 30 closer to Lake Superior.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday...  Mostly sunny.  High 40 to 45.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 28 to 33.  Wind becoming west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Today:

High:  46 degrees
Low:  30 degrees

Tim

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

10/27/10: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:14 PM CDT, Wednesday, October 27th, 2010

Weather tidbits:

*Barometric pressure dropped under 29.00" at the Duluth Airport between 2-3 AM Tuesday Morning, October 26th, 2010.  It stayed below 29.00" until 2 PM CDT Today, October 27th, 2010.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Deep low pressure (974 mb) has moved into Central Ontario Province as of 2 PM Today.  Gusty northwest, west, or southwest winds continued across our local area Today with wind speeds of 10-25 mph along with some higher gusts.  Cloudy skies with areas of light rain or snow also occurred in our area Today on the backside of this historic storm.  High temperatures Today were generally in the middle 30s to lower 40s with wind chills dropping into the 20s at times.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Powerful surface and upper level area of low pressure covered Central Canada with an upper level trough over the Upper Midwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis...A strong upper level jet stream >120 knots was in place in the Central Plains Today.

Tonight:

Strong low pressure will continue to lift northeast reaching Southern Hudson Bay Canada Overnight.  Expect mostly cloudy skies to continue in our area with some lingering showers/drizzle which will mix with and change to snow at times, any accumulations should remain under an inch.  Low temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s with increasing winds out of the west or northwest at 15 to 30 mph with gusts possibly reaching 40 mph during the night as the 850 mb jet increases once again to between 40-55 knots.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Low pressure moves into Northeast Canada while high pressure centers itself to our southwest.  A chilly, but mainly dry period is in store for our area Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with highs in the 30s to around 40 degrees with lows in the 20s and lower 30s, but a few locales could slip into the teens.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 10-25 mph with a few higher gusts on Thursday, winds will decrease to under 20 mph Thursday Night.

Extended Forecast:

Looks like a relatively quiet weather pattern for the Upper Midwest from Friday through early next week.  There will be a low pressure system developing over the Central Plains this weekend, but right now it looks like it will remain far enough to our south/southeast to cause any precipitation in our local area.  High temperatures will be mainly in the 40s in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Friday and Saturday with low temperatures both nights in the 20s and lower 30s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Windy.  Overcast with areas of light rain and drizzle which will mix with and change to light snow and flurries at times, especially away from Lake Superior.  Low 27 to 32 Inland and 32 to 34 closer to Lake Superior.  Wind west at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph developing during the night.

.Thursday...  Breezy.  Partly sunny.  High 35 to 40.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 22 to 27.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 28 to 33.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 45 to 50.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Today:

High:  47
Low:  30

Tim

10/27/10: Storm Summary Information

Issued at 1:36 PM CDT, Wednesday, October 27th, 2010

Sources:  NWS Duluth, MN/St. Cloud Times/Paul Douglas.

All-time lowest pressure readings in Minnesota and Wisconsin on Tuesday, October 26th, 2010.

At 5:13 PM CDT, October 26th, 2010 an automated weather station at Bigfork, Minnesota (Northern Itasca County) measured a pressure reading of 954.96 mb/28.20"/  This establishes a new all-time Minnesota State record for lowest pressure.  The previous record was 962.6 mb which occurred on November 10th, 1998 at Albert Lea and Austin, Minnesota.

*At 11:13 AM CDT, October 26th, 2010 the pressure dropped to 960.72 mb/28.37"/ at Duluth, Minnesota which establishes a new all time lowest pressure reading.  The previous record of 964.3 mb occurred on November 10th, 1998.

*At 3:45 PM CDT, October 26th, 2010 the pressure dropped to 955.98 mb/28.23"/ at International Falls, Minnesota which establishes a new all time lowest pressure reading.  The previous record of 971.9 mb occurred on October 10th, 1949.

*At 11:15 AM CDT, October 26th, 2010 the pressure dropped to 961.06 mb/28.38"/ at Superior, Wisconsin which establishes a new all time lowest pressure reading ever recorded in the state of Wisconsin.  The previous record of 963.4 mb at Green Bay, Wisconsin occurred on April 3rd, 1982.

*If the 954.96 mb/28.20"/ pressure reading holds up from Tuesday, October 26th, 2010...Then it will become the strongest non-tropical storm to hit the U.S.  The previous record of 958 mb/28.28"/ occurred on January 26th, 1978 (Blizzard of 1978)

*This historic storm on Tuesday, 10/26/10 was almost 2,500 miles wide and was stronger than the Armistice Day storm from November 12th, 1940 (965 mb/28.50") and the Edmund Fitzgerald storm from November 10th, 1975 (980 mb/28.94")

*In terms of pressure, the storm from Tuesday, October 26th, 2010 was stronger than Hurricane Gustav (955 mb), Frances (960 mb), and Isabel (959 mb)

Note:  This storm brought heavy amounts of rain and snow along with high winds to Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Here are some precipitation totals from 7 AM CDT Tuesday through 7 AM CDT Wednesday.

Duluth, MN:  2.30"
International Falls, MN:  0.58"
Brainerd, MN:  1.92"
Grand Marais, MN:  1.30"
Hibbing, MN:  2.26"
Ashland, WI:  0.34"
Hayward, WI:  1.95"
Two Harbors, MN:  1.57"
Silver Bay, MN:  1.79"
Bigfork, MN:  0.73"
Aitkin, MN:  2.14"
Cloquet, MN:  1.55"
Superior, WI:  1.81"
Siren, WI:  1.13"
3 miles east of Wright, MN:  2.21"
Cass Lake, MN:  1.59"
Northome, MN:  1.46"
Walker, MN:  1.58"
Embarrass, MN:  0.92"
4 miles east of Island Lake, MN:  2.70"
Finland, MN:  1.61"
Butternut, WI:  1.25"
Danbury, WI:  1.58"
Spooner, WI:  1.27"
Solon Springs, WI:  1.68"

Here are some snowfall reports from Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Tuesday Night and This Morning.

5 miles northwest of Two Harbors, MN (Lake county)  5.0"
Butternut, WI (Ashland county)  1.0"
Culver, MN (St. Louis county)  2.0"
Sawyer, MN (Carlton county)  4.5"
3 miles northeast of Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing county)  3.8"
Saginaw, MN (St. Louis county)  4.0"
2 miles southwest of Twig, MN (St. Louis county)  9.0"
1 mile north of Adolph, MN (St. Louis county)  8.0"
4 miles west-northwest of Cloquet, MN (Carlton county)  5.0".  Also without power since 10:30 PM CDT Tuesday.
Moose Lake, MN (Carlton county)  1.0"
7 miles northwest of Two Harbors, MN (Lake county)  7.1"
Floodwood, MN (St. Louis county)  4.0"
2 miles west-northwest of Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  4.8"
Fort Ripley, MN (Crow Wing county)  3.0"
12 miles north-northwest of Hermantown, MN (St. Louis county)  6.0"
8 miles east of Fredenberg (St. Louis county)  7.1"
14 miles west of Isabella, MN (Lake county)  1.5"
Leader, MN (Cass county)  4.5"
2 miles southeast of Twig, MN (St. Louis county)  8.0" at Pike Lake.
3 miles northeast of Hermantown, MN (St. Louis county)  7.7" through 10:40 AM CDT Today, measured at the National Weather Service, Duluth, Minnesota.

Here are some non-thunderstorm wind gusts and wind damage reports from Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Tuesday and Tuesday Night.

*Devils Island, WI (Ashland county)  61 mph at 2:00 AM CDT 10/27/10

*Port Wing, WI (Bayfield county)  53 mph at 2:00 AM CDT 10/27/10

*4 miles southeast of Duluth, MN  52 mph at 12:07 AM CDT 10/27/10...Measured on Park Point.

*Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  51 mph at 12:00 AM CDT 10/27/10

*Silver Bay, MN (Lake county)  60 mph at 9:10 PM CDT 10/26/10

*2 miles south of Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  65 mph at 11:12 PM CDT 10/26/10...Measured on the Blatnik Bridge.

*5 miles southeast of Duluth, MN  52 mph...Measured at Sky Harbor Airport.

*13 miles east of Park Falls, WI (Price county)  51 mph at 12:47 AM CDT 10/27/10

*5 miles southwest of Phillips, WI (Price county)  57 mph at 12:31 AM CDT 10/27/10...Trees and power lines down in the Township of Harmony and Lake 10 area.

*1 mile north of Phillips, WI (Price county)  58 mph at 11:15 PM CDT 10/26/10

*Pine City, MN (Pine county)  54 mph at 12:38 AM CDT 10/27/10

*3 miles south of Emily, MN (Crow Wing county)  51 mph at 5:10 PM CDT 10/26/10

*3 miles southwest of Ashland, WI (Ashland county)  52 mph at 2:50 AM CDT 10/27/10

*Grand Marais, MN (Cook county)  Roof off Grand Marais Municipal Pool damaged by strong winds.  Two boats lost their moorings in the Harbor and were blown onshore.  Widespread power outages in Cook county.  Numerous trees down along the Gunflint Trail.

*Grand Marais, MN (Cook county)  59 mph wind gusts.  Sustained winds of 43 mph began at 11:56 PM CDT 10/26/10 and lasted for 7 hours.  Wind gusts during that time were regularly measured over 50 mph.

*7 miles north of McGrath, MN (Aitkin county)  54 mph at 9:09 PM CDT 10/26/10

*Grand Portage, MN (Cook county)  52 mph at 1:19 PM CDT 10/26/10

RECORD EVENT:

2.94" of precipitation fell at Duluth, Minnesota on Tuesday, October 26th, 2010.  This broke the 24 hour precipitation record for the day.  The previous record was 0.61" which was set in 1902.  The 2.94" precipitation total also established a new October record for a calendar day.  The previous record was 2.81" set on October 1st, 1950.

3.4" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location) on Tuesday, October 26th, 2010.  This broke the 24 hour snowfall record for the day.  The previous record was 1.7" set in 1969.

Tim

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

10/27/10: STORM UPDATE

Issued at 12:27 AM CDT, Wednesday, October 27th, 2010

All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

*Winter Storm Warning* remains in effect until 10 AM CDT This Morning for Cass and Crow Wing counties Minnesota, including the cities of Cass Lake, Walker, Leader, Emily, Brainerd, and Pine Center.

*Winter Weather Advisory* remains in effect until 10 AM CDT This Morning for Cook, Lake, Central and Southern St. Louis, Carlton, Pine, Aitkin, Southern Itasca counties in Minnesota and for Douglas county Wisconsin.

*Wind Advisory* remains in effect until 7 PM CDT This Evening for Southern Lake, Southern Cook, Cass, Crow Wing, Aitkin, Carlton, Southern St. Louis, and Pine counties Minnesota and for Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland, Iron, Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer, and Price counties Wisconsin.

Epic storm of October 2010 remains extremely strong early This Morning, although the pressure has come up a few millibars compared to the record setting readings of around 953 mb Tuesday Afternoon.  At 11 PM CDT, the pressure of the low was sitting at 960 mb with the placement of the low sitting along the Minnesota/Ontario border.

An 850 mb jet of 45-70 knots was in place late This Evening across Northwest Wisconsin, back through the Twin Ports and North Shore of Lake Superior, and south through Eastcentral Minnesota.  High winds out of the southwest sustained at 25-35 mph with gusts over 50 mph have been occurring in these areas Tonight with numerous reports of trees coming down along with some scattered power outages.  The threat for high winds of 25-45 mph with gusts over 50 mph will continue the rest of Tonight before wind speeds decrease some after 7 AM Today, however, wind speeds may increase once again This Afternoon and This Evening with gusts possibly over 40 mph once again.  The strongest winds through This Evening will be along and south of the Iron Range.

Precipitation will also continue across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin through Today...A mix bag of snow and rain will occur with areas along and south of a line from Grand Rapids to the Arrowhead of Minnesota including Douglas county Wisconsin seeing mainly snow through the Morning before some rain mixes in.  As of Midnight CDT Tonight, 2.0" of snow had already accumulated at the National Weather Service in Duluth with up to an inch reported at Brainerd, Minnesota.  The latest run off the HRRR model as well as the 00z NAM/WRF model continues to crank out some impressive snowfall amounts inland from Lake Superior in Northeast/Eastcentral Minnesota and far Northwest Wisconsin...Anywhere from 3-6" of snow could accumulate by This Afternoon, (but those two models show even greater amounts nearing 7-10")  Again the bulk of the snow will remain inland from Lake Superior...Locales closer to Lake Superior should see mostly rain, although some snow may mix in from time to time, but little if any accumulation is expected.

Tim

10/26/10: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:21 PM CDT, Tuesday, October 26th, 2010

All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota...

...EPIC STORM SHATTERS RECORDS AND THE WORST MAY BE YET TO COME...

Some highlights from this storm so far:

*Special Marine Warnings* were issued around Noon CDT Today along the North and South Shore of Lake Superior, including the Duluth/Superior Harbor due to a line of thunderstorms producing winds up to 50 knots.

*Blizzard and winter storm conditions developing over parts of North Dakota and Minnesota.

*High winds knocking down trees and causing power outages.

*All-time record low barometric pressure readings in Minnesota Today.

*Areas of flooding around the Twin Ports.

Local Storm Reports from Today...Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

*6:38 AM CDT 10/26/10:  Non-thunderstorm wind damage.  Isabella, Minnesota (Lake County)  Trees reported down on Highway 1.

*10:45 AM CDT 10/26/10:  Non-thunderstorm wind damage.  Mercer, Wisconsin (Iron County)  Trees and power lines down.

*Shortly before 3:00 PM CDT Today, trees were reported down blocking highway 77 and 169 in Northwestern Wisconsin from Mellen into Iron county per Wisconsin Department of Transportation.

*176 severe weather reports including 11 tornadoes since 7 AM Today per Storm Prediction Center.  At one time This Morning there were over 30 active severe weather warnings, 22 of which were tornado warnings!  The bulk of the severe weather Today has occurred in Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, and Mississippi.

*Before 7 AM Today there were 143 severe weather reports from late last night per Storm Prediction Center.  One concentrated area of severe weather affected portions of Wisconsin, Illinois, and Missouri early This Morning.

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

Timing:

7 PM CDT This Evening until 10 CDT Wednesday.

Counties included in the warning:

Cass MN...and Crow Wing MN...

Some cities included in the warning:

Cass Lake MN...Walker MN...Leader MN...Emily MN...Brainerd MN...and Pine Center MN...

Discussion:

*A powerful storm system will wrap cold air into it's circulation causing rain to mix with and change to wet snow Tonight and Tomorrow in the warning area.  Snowfall accumulations of 2-4" are possible by Wednesday Afternoon.  Falling snow combined with winds gusting over 30 mph will result in areas of blowing and drifting snow and poor visibility.

*A winter storm warning for heavy snow and blowing snow means the combination of strong winds and falling and blowing snow will cause dangerously low visibility and drifting snow.  Snow and ice covered roads...And dangerous travel conditions can be expected.  Delay travel if possible.  If you must travel...Use extreme caution and allow extra time to reach your destination.  Be aware that you may become stranded and that it could take many hours for help to arrive.  Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle.  Including a flashlight...Food...and Water.  Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time and have a working cell phone in case you become stranded.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Timing:

11 PM CDT Tonight until 10 AM CDT Wednesday.

Counties included in the warning:

Central and Southern St. Louis MN...Carlton MN...Southern Itasca MN...and Aitkin MN...

Some cities included in the warning:

Hibbing MN...Floodwood MN...Duluth MN...Cloquet MN...Moose Lake MN...Cromwell MN...Grand Rapids MN...Hill City MN...Aitkin MN...and McGregor MN...

Discussion:

*Rain will become mixed with and change over to snow at times late Tonight and Tomorrow in the advisory area as cold air gets drawn into a large low pressure system to our north.  Snowfall accumulations of 1-3" are possible by Wednesday Afternoon.

*Snow will be accompanied by strong winds of over 30 mph.

*Wet snow will stick to some roads and make them extremely slippery.  Falling and blowing snow will briefly reduce visibilities.

A winter weather advisory for snow and blowing snow means that visibilities will be limited due to a combination of falling and blowing snow.  Use caution when traveling...Especially in open areas that are more exposed to the wind.  Roads may be slick and hazardous...So allow extra time to reach your destination.

Record low barometer readings in Minnesota Today...  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

*Aitkin, Minnesota:  962.3 mb/28.42"...This breaks the all time record of 962.6 mb set on November 10th, 1998 at Albert Lea and Austin, Minnesota.

*Duluth, Minnesota:  962.9 mb/28.44".  Previous record was 964.3 mb set on November 10th, 1998.

*International Falls, Minnesota:  967.4 mb/28.57".  Previous record was 971.9 mb.

Note:  The pressure dropped below 29.00" at Duluth, Minnesota between 2:00-3:00 AM Today and since then has remained below 29.00"!  At 5:00 PM CDT Today, the barometric pressure was 28.41"/962 mb!

Note:  Pressure readings were as of This Morning and further deepening did occur, so the record values will likely be tweaked downward just a tad.

Discussion:

956 mb low was centered just south of International Falls, Minnesota as of 5 PM CDT.  This low could deepen another 1-2 mb before the pressure stops falling.  This mammoth low will remain nearly stationary Tonight in Northern Minnesota while maintaining it's incredible strength of around 958 mb.  Intense west/southwest winds on the south flank of this low will persist through the night.  Wind speeds of 20-40 mph will be common, but gusts from 45-60 mph will occur over all but Northern Minnesota.  Cold air working into the storm's circulation will advect north into the Upper Midwest Tonight and on Wednesday which will result in rain mixing with and turning to snow at times.  The heaviest accumulations of snow 3+" are forecast to fall in Central-Western parts of Minnesota, but some sticking snow could even occur in the Twin Ports and also in Eastcentral Minnesota/Northwest Wisconsin.

The high winds could topple some trees and result in power outages across our area Tonight and on Wednesday.  Also, temperatures will be falling as we are now on the south side of this low.  Expect temperatures to drop into the 30s Tonight with temps holding nearly steady in the 30s and lower 40s on Wednesday.  Wind chills may dip into the 20s at times through Wednesday.

This is a historic and very dangerous storm system.

*Conditions will begin to improve especially by Thursday.

Rainfall report from 7 AM CDT Monday thru 7 AM CDT Today...Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth, MN:  0.92"
Brainerd, MN:  1.49"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.79"
Hibbing, MN:  0.53"
Ashland, WI:  0.33"
Hayward, WI:  0.40"
Northome, MN:  0.61"
Gurney, WI:  0.26"
Madeline Island, WI:  0.37"

Headlines for Duluth/Superior:

*Wind Advisory* through 7 PM CDT Wednesday
*Winter Weather Advisory* in effect from 11 PM CDT Tonight until 10 AM CDT Wednesday
*Flood Advisory* in effect until 9 PM CDT Tonight

Monday, October 25, 2010

10/25/10: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:52 PM CDT, Monday, October 25th, 2010

...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD STORM SET TO HIT MINNESOTA THROUGH MID WEEK...

Storm Highlights:

*RAIN, WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
*HIGH WINDS WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME DAMAGE
*RAIN/SNOW AND POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW
*WINTER STORM/POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT
*THUNDERSTORM THREAT LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING
*GALE AND STORM FORCE CONDITIONS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR

Rainfall report from 7 AM CDT Sunday through 7 AM CDT Monday...Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth, MN:  0.38"
Brainerd, MN:  0.54"
Hibbing, MN:  0.29"
Ashland, WI:  0.61"
Hayward, WI:  0.54"
4 miles south of Bruno, MN:  0.90"
Bruno, MN:  0.75"
3 miles west-southwest of Hinckley, MN:  0.80"
Cook, MN:  0.24"
Embarrass, MN:  0.22"
Floodwood, MN:  0.35"
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  0.25"
Silver Bay, MN:  0.92"
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  0.30"
Finland, MN:  0.94"
Butternut, WI:  0.37"
Gurney, WI:  0.47"
Madeline Island, WI:  1.03"
Upson, WI:  0.64"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  0.59"
Danbury, WI:  1.14"
Gordon, WI:  0.43"

*Note:  230 severe weather reports including 6 tornadoes occurred on Sunday, October 24th, 2010 across portions of Dixie Alley (Southern U.S.) per Storm Prediction Center.  A few scattered severe weather reports even occurred as far north as Missouri and Illinois. 

Note:  Going into this storm, the all time Minnesota record low pressure reading occurred on November 10th, 1998 at Austin and Albert Lea, Minnesota, the pressure got down to 28.43"/962.6 mb.

*The record low pressure reading at Duluth, Minnesota is 964.3 mb/28.48" which also occurred on November 10th, 1998.

*At International Falls, Minnesota the record low pressure reading is 971.9 mb/28.70" which occurred on October 10th, 1949.

Weather History:

On this date in 1989...  A record high temperature of 72 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

3 PM CDT surface charts show a couple strong areas of low pressure.  One was located along the Northeast South Dakota/Southeast North Dakota border with a pressure of 982 mb.  A second low of 984 mb covered Central Kansas.  A third low of 988 mb was centered in Eastern Saskatchewan Province.  Light winds earlier in the day have begun to pick up This Afternoon from the south/east as this epic storm begins to come together to our west/southwest.  Overcast skies prevailed in our local area Today with areas of drizzle and fog along with some showers which have been spreading N/NE while increasing in coverage as large scale forcing approaches the Upper Midwest.  High temperatures Today ranged from the middle 40s to middle 50s with southern areas at or a few degrees above 60.  Dewpoints This Afternoon have climbed into the 40s and 50s throughout our area while PWS ranged from 0.90-1.00".

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

An amazingly strong jet stream >150 knots is slamming east through the Central-Southern Rockies Today per RUC model analysis.  Note:  Winds at jet stream level over Medford, Oregon This Morning were 220 mph!  The result of this powerful jet stream will be an exploding storm system which will move into the Upper Midwest during the next 24 hours.

Tonight:

Low pressure will start to merge in Northern Iowa while pressures drop to around 973 mb Overnight.  A moist airmass will be in place ahead of this low in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with rain occurring at times through the night.  Some of the rain could become locally heavy at times.  Elevated instability will begin to surge north into our area later in the night with CAPES up to 100 j/kg with Lifted Indices around zero degrees C, this could result in scattered thunderstorm development late Tonight in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  The low level jet is forecast to increase to 40-60 knots in our area Tonight and some of this will mix down to the surface, especially near Lake Superior and also in any stronger shower/thunderstorm that can develop which would help to mix down some of this wind.  Temperatures Tonight will hold in the 40s and 50s with south and east winds averaging 10-25 mph, but gusts over 30 mph will develop during the night.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Intense area of low pressure will bottom out between 960-963 mb as it reaches Eastern or Central Minnesota Tomorrow Morning, this low will then move into far Northern Minnesota/Southern Ontario Province by Tomorrow Night.  Note:  The GFS model continues to show the pressure dropping all the way to around 957 mb with this storm Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night.

Rain which will end at times from south to north as the low nears on Tuesday will be accompanied by a wind shift from the east to the west as the low lifts into Northern Minnesota.  Then, Tuesday Night will feature cold advection and more strong westerly winds as the deep low pulls into Southern Ontario Province.  Wind speeds on average will range from 10-25 mph on Tuesday, but gusts of 30-50 mph will develop in wake of the low Tuesday Afternoon, the strong winds will spread from south to north Tuesday Afternoon.  Winds of 15-35 mph with gusts over 40 mph will continue Tuesday Night.

A few thunderstorms could also occur Tomorrow in Northwest Wisconsin and also in far Northeast Minnesota...The Storm Prediction Center has extreme Northeastern Minnesota (Cook county) under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Tomorrow Morning into early Tomorrow Afternoon, damaging wind would be the main threat.

Expect some more rain Tuesday Night which may start to mix with snow later in the night, especially from Bemidji, Grand Rapids, and Hibbing, southwest through Aitkin and Brainerd.

Temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s with some 60s in Northwest Wisconsin, then temps will drop into the 30s and 40s by late Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night.

Extended Forecast:

Intense low pressure over Southern Ontario Province Wednesday Morning will pass north of Lake Superior, reaching Southern Hudson Bay Canada by Thursday.  Strong winds and lingering rain or snow will persist in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Wednesday through early Thursday.  Precipitation and winds will then begin to decrease on Thursday with mainly dry conditions returning by Friday.

There are big differences noted between the 12z NAM and 12z GFS model Today in regards to how much cold air gets drawn into the west/south side of the low, this will have implications on how soon precipitation mixes with or turns to snow (if it does at all), and also if there will be any accumulating snowfall.  The NAM is colder and cranks out quite the snowstorm west/north of Duluth for Tuesday Night through late Wednesday, snow totals of 3-8" are being forecasted by the 12z NAM with 1-3" even falling in Duluth, and through most of Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota.  The 12z GFS is slower to bring the cold air north and as result cranks out little if any accumulating snow for our area.

There are Winter Storm Watches in effect for late Tuesday Night through Wednesday Evening for portions of Northwest Minnesota and Northeast North Dakota with the potential for snow totals to exceed 4".  Blizzard conditions could even develop in these areas due to the combination of falling snow and strong winds.

High temperatures in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will be in the 30s and 40s both Wednesday and Thursday with lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night in the 20s and 30s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*WIND ADVISORY* IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT UNTIL 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY

.Tonight...  Becoming windy.  Occasional rain.  Isolated thunderstorms possible Overnight.  Areas of drizzle and fog.  Temperatures nearly steady from 48 to 52.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph developing late.

.Tuesday...  Occasional rain and wind.  High 52 to 56 with falling temperatures late.  Wind east at 15 to 30 mph early, decreasing to 10 to 15 and becoming variable, wind shifting west to southwest at 20 to 45 mph by late Afternoon.

.Tuesday Night...  Windy with occasional rain.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind west to southwest at 20 to 40 mph.

.Wednesday...  Windy with occasional rain.  The rain could mix with snow at times.  High 40 to 45.  Wind west at 20 to 35 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Windy with rain or snow showers.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind west to northwest at 20 to 30 mph.

.Thursday...  Breezy.  A few snow showers or flurries possible, mainly early.  Variable cloudiness.  High 38 to 43.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 23 to 28.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

Normals for Today:

High:  48 degrees
Low:  31 degrees

Tim

10/25/10: HEADLINE INFORMATION

Issued at 3:22 PM CDT, Monday, October 25th, 2010

All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

...WIND ADVISORY...

Timing:

12 AM CDT Tonight until 6 PM CDT Wednesday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Carlton MN...Southern St. Louis MN...Southern Lake MN...Southern Cook MN...Douglas WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...and Iron WI...

Some cities included in the advisory:

Moose Lake MN...Cloquet MN...Cromwell MN...Duluth MN...Floodwood MN...Two Harbors MN...Silver Bay MN...Lutsen MN...Grand Marais MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Cable WI...Ashland WI...Butternut WI...Hurley WI...and Mercer WI...

Discussion:

*Easterly winds will increase to 15-30 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph developing near Lake Superior by late Tonight through Tuesday Morning as a powerful low pressure system lifts north into the Upper Midwest.  The winds will subside some from south to north on Tuesday as the deep low moves overhead...Winds will then back west and increase once again from south to north Tuesday Afternoon and Tuesday Evening and will remain strong through Wednesday.

*The strong winds could result in power interruptions in some areas

A wind advisory means that winds of 30 mph are expected.  Winds this strong can make driving difficult...Especially for high profile vehicles.  Use extra caution.

...WIND ADVISORY...

Timing:

12 PM CDT Tuesday until 6 PM CDT Wednesday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Pine MN...Aitkin MN...Crow Wing MN...Cass MN...Burnett WI...Washburn WI...Sawyer WI...and Price WI...

Some cities included in the advisory:

Pine City MN...Hinckley MN...McGrath MN...Hill City MN...Aitkin MN...Brainerd MN...Pine Center MN...Emily MN...Leader MN...Walker MN...Cass Lake MN...Danbury WI...Grantsburg WI...Minong WI...Shell Lake WI...Hayward WI...Exeland WI...Park Falls WI...Phillips WI...and Ogema WI...

Discussion:

*East winds will increase to 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph Tonight and early Tuesday, winds will subside for a time Tuesday Morning, then increase once again out of the west Tuesday Afternoon with gusts an excess of 30 mph expected through Wednesday.

*Winds this strong could lead to power interruptions in some areas.

A wind advisory means that winds of 30 mph are expected.  Winds this strong can be driving difficult...Especially for high profile vehicles.  Use extra caution.

Tim

Sunday, October 24, 2010

10/24/10: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:20 PM CDT, Sunday, October 24th, 2010

...MAJOR FALL STORM EXPECTED TO HIT THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

*High winds causing possible damage...
*Rain, locally heavy with a thunderstorm risk as well Monday Night...
*Accumulating snow possible from Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night...
*Rising temperatures Monday Night, followed by falling temps on Tuesday...
*A sudden wind shift from the east to west will take place sometime on Tuesday...
*Gale and storm force conditions on Lake Superior from Monday Night through Wednesday Night...

*Gale Watch* in effect for Lake Superior from Tuesday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon.  Peak winds up to 46 knots.  Peak wave heights up to 14 feet.

*Storm Watch* in effect for Lake Superior from Tuesday Afternoon through late Wednesday Night.  Peak winds up to 63 knots.  Peak wave heights up to 28 feet.

Note:  Seiches/sloshes or a change in water level is expected across the Great Lakes as this powerful storm moves through.

Rainfall report from 7 AM CDT Saturday through 7 AM CDT Sunday.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Brainerd, MN:  0.18"
Hayward, WI:  0.65"
Bruno, MN:  0.90"
Butternut, WI:  0.45"
Gurney, WI:  0.39"
Upson, WI:  0.30"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  0.72"
Danbury, WI:  0.92"
Sarona, WI:  0.41"
Winter, WI:  0.64"

Weather History:

On this date in 1998...  A record high temperature of 71 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A stationary front was draped from Southern Minnesota through Central Wisconsin as of 5 PM with an area of low pressure averaging 1002 mb centered over Eastern Minnesota.  Overcast skies with areas of light rain, drizzle, and fog were common Today in Northern/Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Some weak instability in place from Pine City and Hinckley, east through Northwest Wisconsin even led to the development of a few thunderstorms Saturday Night and early This Morning with some heavy downpours associated with that activity.  High temperatures Today were in the middle 40s to middle 50s with east or northeast winds at 10-15 mph, but gusts to 30 mph continued to occur Today near Lake Superior.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis shows that a southwest 500 mb flow was in place over the Upper Midwest Today with one system pushing E/NE across the Upper Midwest while a powerhouse low was nearly stationary over the Northeast Pacific...To the south of that low was an exceptionally strong jet stream of >160 knots which is blasting into the Western U.S. by way of the Central Pacific.

Tonight:

A frontal boundary will remain off to our south Tonight while an area of low pressure continues to move slowly toward the E/NE into Northern Wisconsin.  Areas of light rain, drizzle, and fog will linger throughout the area Tonight with lows generally in the 40s to around 50 degrees.  Winds will be out of the north or east at 5-15 mph with gusts of 20-30 mph persisting near Lake Superior.

Monday and Monday Night:

An intense jet stream of 160 knots or greater will start to pull out into the Central Plains during this period with low pressure taking shape across Kansas, this low of around 986 mb late Monday Afternoon will deepen to around 981 mb Monday Night as it lifts N/NE toward Southcentral Minnesota.  The stationary front currently in Southern Minnesota will lift north during this period as this low develops, while a cold front attached to this low swings N/E out of the Central Plains.  Dewpoints in the 50s with PWS up to 1.00" are forecast to be in place across Northwest Wisconsin and the Eastern half of Minnesota from Monday Afternoon into Monday Night with some instability also developing with Lifted Indicies around zero degrees C with CAPE values around 150 j/kg.  Areas of drizzle and fog are possible over portions of our area on Monday which will be followed by increasing chances for rain/showers Monday Night...Scattered thunderstorms are also possible by Monday Night as the low level jet increases to 40-55 knots and as the deepening low starts to approach the area from the southwest.  Severe weather isn't expected this far north, that should remain in Southeast Minnesota, Eastern Iowa, Illinois, and Southern Wisconsin where damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible after dark Tomorrow Night.  Temperatures Monday and Monday Night will be in the 40s and 50s in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with some 60s possibly surging north into Northwestern Wisconsin for Monday Night.  Winds will be out of the south or east Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night at 10-25 mph with gusts possibly over 40 mph developing near Lake Superior by Monday Night.

Extended Forecast:

A strong low pressure system (964-971 mb) is forecast to be over Central Minnesota or along the Minnesota/Wisconsin state line on Tuesday, this low will deepen further from Tuesday Afternoon into Wednesday as it lifts north into Southern Ontario Province.  Pressures with the low by Tuesday Night/Wednesday Morning will be in the 961-966 mb range, but the GFS has been trending even deeper with the low during the past 24 hours now, the GFS now has pressures dropping to 955-959 mb during that aforemetioned time period.

Note:  This low could "bomb" out with a pressures possibly dropping as much as 27 mb between 7 PM Monday and 7 PM Tuesday!

On Tuesday, expect a sudden wind shift from the east to west to take place as the intense low lifts N/NW...Cold advection will overspread our local area from south to north with 850 mb temperatures dropping to -2/-6 degrees C from Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night.  Rain will continue on Tuesday, but it could taper off at times for parts of our area.  As colder air wraps into the storm, the rain will begin to mix with and could change to all snow for some parts of our area for Tuesday Night and Wednesday.  The models Today are trending toward colder air and more moisture lingering in our area as the low pulls into Ontario Province, and sure enough the NAM and GFS are starting to show some interesting snowfall totals, especially for Northern Minnesota for mid week...Anywhere from 2-8" is being cranked out right now by these models with the HPC even showing a SLIGHT RISK (10% PROB) for snow amounts to reach at least 4" in Duluth between 7 PM Tuesday and 7 PM Wednesday.

The models could change a bit on the track and intensity of this storm during the next 24 hours, and also on how much cold air gets drawn into the west/south side of the area of low pressure, so stay tuned to later forecasts...

The next aspect of this major fall storm will be the wind.  850 mb winds of 40-65 knots continue to show up across the Upper Midwest for Monday Night through Wednesday Night, this could lead to widespread 30-40 mph winds with gusts of 50 mph or greater!  Winds of this magnitude could result in downed trees and possible power outages.

High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s, but could drop into the 30s later in the day.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 30s with highs on Wednesday in the 30s and 40s with lows Wednesday Night in the 20s and 30s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Overcast with light rain and drizzle along with areas of dense fog.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

.Monday...  Considerable cloudiness.  Areas of fog and drizzle possible.  High 48 to 53.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday Night...  Windy with occasional rain.  Isolated thunderstorms also possible.  Overcast.  Temperatures nearly steady between 48 and 53.  Wind east at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph possible. 

.Tuesday...  Windy with occasional rain.  Overcast.  High 50 to 55 with falling temperatures late.  Wind east at 15 to 30 mph, shifting west at 25 to 40 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Windy.  Occasional rain.  Rain may mix with snow at times.  Overcast.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind west at 25 to 40 mph with higher gusts possible.

.Wednesday...  Windy.  Occasional rain or rain mixed with snow.  Overcast.  High 35 to 40.  Wind west at 25 to 40 mph with higher gusts possible.

.Wednesday Night...  Breezy.  Occasional rain or snow showers.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind northwest at 15 to 30 mph.

.Thursday...  Variable cloudiness.  Snow showers or flurries possible, mainly early.  High 38 to 43.

Normals for Tomorrow:

High:  48 degrees
Low:  31 degrees

Tim

Saturday, October 23, 2010

10/23/10: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:39 PM CDT, Saturday, October 23rd, 2010

...Record breaking storm possible Tuesday/Wednesday...

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Something we have not seen in quite sometime occurred Today and that is alot of clouds and areas of rain which has been slowly lifting toward the north through Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Most of this rain has been on the light side with heavier showers and thunderstorms confined to Iowa and portions of Southern Minnesota which is in the deeper moisture and where a stationary front is set up.  With the clouds and areas of rain, high temperatures Today were stuck in the 40s to around 50 degrees which is pretty typical for late October.  Winds Today were out of the east at 5-15 mph with gusts to 30 mph occurring near Lake Superior.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery indicates that the 500 mb flow has transitioned to the southwest across the Upper Midwest after weeks of a northwesterly flow.  An upper level trough was lifting northeast across the Plains with relatively weak 12 hour 500 mb height falls of 30 meters.  Meanwhile off to our west a powerhouse jet stream was in place across the Central Pacific Ocean with a deep low centered over the Northeast Pacific.

Tonight through Sunday Night:

Low pressure of around 998-1000 mb will continue to lift slowly toward the northeast as it tracks from Central Nebraska late This Afternoon toward Westcentral Wisconsin by late Sunday Night.  A stationary front currently over the South half of Minnesota will begin to slowly retreat toward the north as a warm front by Sunday and Sunday Night.  Areas of mostly light rain along with some drizzle and fog will continue during this period across Eastcentral and Northeast Minnesota through all of Northwest Wisconsin.  The bulk of the rain is expected to fall south of a line from Bemidji to Ely to Grand Marais.  Otherwise expect mostly cloudy skies during this period with low temperatures Tonight and Tomorrow Night in the 30s and 40s with highs Tomorrow in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the east or north at 5-15 mph with higher gusts of 20-30 mph continuing near Lake Superior.

Note:  Rainfall totals through Sunday Night should generally be around or less than one quarter inch.

Extended Forecast:

The forecast models continue to suggest that an historic storm will develop and affect the Upper Midwest's weather from Monday through early Thursday.  There are some timing, track, and strength differences noted between the various models, but this should clear up by early Monday.

Low pressure of around 987 mb is forecast to develop across the Central Plains on Monday in response to a powerful 160+ knot upper level jet which will slam into the Western U.S. through early next week.  This low is then expected to lift north, passing through Minnesota (what part of the state is unknown at this time) then lift into Southern-Central Ontario Province by mid week.  As this low reaches the Upper Midwest it is forecast to undergo rapid intensification as pressures drop to between 964-973 mb!  Note:  HPC forecasters are comparing this storm (strength wise) to the November 10th, 1998 storm and to the Armistice Day storm of 1940.  The '98 storm broke all time barometric pressure readings at the Twin Cities and Duluth along with other Minnesota cities.  The pressure dropped to an all time low of 28.55" at the Twin Cities and all the way down to 28.47"/964 mb at Duluth, Minnesota.  This storm during the early to mid part of next week has the potential to be just as strong as the November, 1998 storm.  It should also be noted that the '98 storm dropped 7+" of snow at Duluth, Minnesota, with a half foot or more of snow also falling across Westcentral/Northwest Minnesota...This storm next week doesn't look like it will produce any big snowfall for Minnesota.

Rain associated with this deepening storm should overspread Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Monday Night with rain continuing into Tuesday before tapering off in some areas as the low passes through our local area.  Then, some additional showers which could mix with snow at times will spread into our area during the Tuesday Night-early Thursday time frame.

With such a deep low, wind will be a huge factor.  Monday Night and Tuesday could feature an easterly gale near Lake Superior, then as the low passes off to our west/north, winds will abruptly shift to the southwest or west.  It's possible that wind gusts could exceed 40 mph over portions of our area from Monday Night through Wednesday and wind advisories or warnings may need to be issued if this storm is as strong as the models are advertising.  What parts of our local area get hit the worst by the intense winds from Tuesday into Wednesday will hinge upon the low pressure track, and that is too early to call at the moment.

High temperatures in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will be in the 40s and 50s for Monday and Tuesday with low temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s Monday Night and the 30s and 40s for Tuesday Night.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Breezy with light rain and drizzle at times along with areas of fog.  Overcast.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.  Chance of rain 70%.

.Sunday...  Breezy with light rain and drizzle at times along with areas of fog.  Mostly cloudy.  High 46 to 50.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Light rain or drizzle possible.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Monday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 48 to 51.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday Night...  Breezy with occasional rain developing.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 48.  Chance of rain 60%.  East wind occasionally gusting to 30 mph.

.Tuesday...  Breezy with occasional rain.  Mostly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.  Chance of rain 70%.  East wind could occasionally gust to 30 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Breezy with rain showers possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 38 to 43.  Chance of rain 40%.  West to southwest winds could occasionally gust over 30 mph.  

.Wednesday...  Breezy with rain showers possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 43 to 47.  Chance of rain 40%.  West winds could occasionally gust over 30 mph.

Normals for Tomorrow:

High:  49 degrees
Low:  31 degrees

Tim

Friday, October 22, 2010

10/22/10: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:47 PM CDT, Friday, October 22nd, 2010

...RECORD DRY OCTOBER...

The first 22 days of October at International Falls, Minnesota has only produced 0.03" of precipitation making it the driest on record.

The first 22 days of October at Duluth, Minnesota has only produced 0.14" of precipitation which makes it the 5th driest on record.  The all time record of 0.03" occurred in 1872!

Low temperature report for Friday, October 22nd, 2010.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth, MN:  30 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  21 degrees
Hayward, WI:  22 degrees
Silver Bay, MN:  25 degrees
Eveleth, MN:  23 degrees
Longville, MN:  23 degrees
Superior, WI:  25 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  20 degrees
Floodwood, MN:  24 degrees
Upson, WI:  25 degrees

Weather tidbits:

*Thursday's (10/21) high temperature of 49 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota was the first day with a below average high temperature since October 3rd.

*Prior to October 21st, the last time the high temperature failed to reach 50 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota was on September 15th, the high temperature that day was 48 degrees.

*This Morning's low temperature of 30 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota makes it only the 4th time this month with 32 degree or lower minimum temperature.

*Just two days so far this month with at least 0.01" of precipitation at Duluth, Minnesota.  October 9th was the last time we had 0.01" of rain.

*Precipitation total at Duluth, Minnesota through October 21st:  0.14" which is 1.62" Below Average.

Note:  One year ago Today the high temperature at Duluth, Minnesota was 36 degrees!

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A gorgeous late October day as high temperatures soared into the 60s thanks to warm advection with 850 mb temperatures of +6/+10 degrees C sitting over our area Today out ahead of a cold front which was pushing southeast out of Northwestern Minnesota.  Sunny to partly cloudy skies prevailed Today with southwest winds at 10-20 mph with a few higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Well advertised pattern change is beginning to take place as an upper level low finally opens up a bit as it lifts northeast through Colorado...A southwest 500 mb flow was occurring across the Plains Today, but the Upper Midwest continued to be under a northwest flow aloft for one last day.  Meanwhile, off in the Pacific Ocean is a powerhouse jet stream with an extremely strong storm heading east toward the Northeast part of the Pacific Ocean per water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight:

Low pressure will pass by to our northeast while a cold front drops S/SE through Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin through the night.  Clear to partly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with lows in the 30s and 40s.  Winds from the southwest will turn north at 10-20 mph as the cold front moves through.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

High pressure will be centered in Central Ontario Province while low pressure at the surface and aloft moves E/NE into the Central Plains.  Tonight's cold front will stall out over the Southern half of Minnesota while moisture lifting up and over that boundary results in periodic rainfall which will spread from south to north/northeast across Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  The bulk of the rain during this period should fall along and south of a line from Bemidji to Ely to Grand Marais with most of the rain not arriving until Saturday Afternoon for southern areas, and not until late Saturday Afternoon or Saturday Evening for the Iron Range and Arrowhead.  Skies will become mostly cloudy Tomorrow and remain that way Tomorrow Night.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 40s and 50s, more typical for this time of year.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s and 40s.  East to northeast winds at 5-15 mph will be common during this period, but gusts from 15-30 mph will develop, especially near Lake Superior.

Note:  Rainfall totals this weekend should average out between 0.10-0.25" along and south of a line from Bemidji to Ely to Grand Marais with locally higher totals, possibly of 0.50-1.00" occurring from Brainerd and Pine City, east through the Hayward Lakes, Park Falls area.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to lift northeast, but passing south/southeast of our local area from Sunday into early Monday with some lingering rain expected in Northwest Wisconsin, Northeast and Eastcentral Minnesota.  Highs on Sunday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Sunday Night in the mainly in the 40s.  High temps for Monday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Monday Night in the 40s. 

This first system pulls out on Monday while a potent 150+ knot upper level jet passes through the Western U.S. which will cause low pressure to develop over the Northern/Central Plains.  This low will then lift north into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday, before lifting into Central Ontario Province by Wednesday.  The forecast models continue to advertise a very deep surface low with pressures ranging from 965 mb on the extreme side of things to around 974 mb on the somewhat tamer side of things, but a 974 mb low is still very potent!  This storm will bring rain to Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Monday Afternoon through Tuesday.  Then, as the low lifts north of our area expect the precipitation to become more showery in nature by midweek.  Strong winds could develop in our area, especially toward Tuesday and Wednesday...Wind gusts may surpass 35 mph as winds veer to the west behind the low.  Eventually enough cold air will wrap into this storm which will cause the rain showers to mix with and possibly turn to snow showers/flurries around the middle of next week, although at this time it doesn't appear that there will be any sticking snow, but things could change in coming days.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 38 to 43.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming north to northeast late.

.Saturday...  Increasing cloudiness.  Turning breezy.  Occasional light rain developing during the Afternoon.  High 47 to 52.  Wind east at 15 to 30 mph.  Chance of rain increasing to 60%.

.Saturday Night...  Breezy with light rain and drizzle.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.  Chance of rain 90%.

.Sunday...  Breezy with light rain and drizzle.  Mostly cloudy.  High 47 to 52.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.  Chance of rain 70%.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Light rain or drizzle possible.  Low  40 to 45.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 50 to 55.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday Night...  Occasional rain.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Tuesday...  Occasional rain.  Mostly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.  Chance of rain 60%.

Normals for Tomorrow:

High:  49 degrees
Low:  32 degrees

Tim

Thursday, October 21, 2010

10/21/10: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:20 PM CDT, Thursday, October 21st, 2010

New monthly and winter outlooks issued Today by the Climate Prediction Center.

November 2010 outlook for Duluth, Minnesota:

40% chance for above normal temperatures
Equal chances for above normal, below normal, or normal precipitation

November 2010 through January 2011 outlook for Duluth, Minnesota.

Equal chances for above normal, below normal, or normal temperatures and precipitation.

Note:  The current La Nina is at near record levels according to the latest information from the Climate Prediction Center.  Usually a strong La Nina results in a colder and snowier winter for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, but not all La Nina events are the same.  It should also be noted that the latter stages of winter is typically when the Northland will experience above average amounts of snow.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure of 1018 mb was centered in far Southwest Minnesota as of 3 PM with partly to mostly cloudy skies covering our local area Today.  Temperatures were close to if not slightly below normal Today with highs in the 40s with a few southern areas up to 50 degrees late Today while Grand Marais was struggling to get out of the upper 30s!  The coldest air with 20s and 30s were confined to areas N/NE of Lake Superior Today.  Winds were out of the northwest Today at 10-20 mph with a few higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500 mb pattern remains the same with a strong northwest flow covering the Upper Midwest while an upper level trough was in place over Central-Eastern Canada, south through the Great Lakes while an upper level currently over the Southwest U.S. moves slowly toward the E/NE.

Tonight:

High pressure will slide southeast from far Southwest Minnesota Tonight, this high will keep our area on the quiet side with just some passing mid/high level clouds from time to time.  Lows will be in the 20s and 30s while northwest winds becoming variable to south under 15 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

Southwest winds and warm advection (850 mb temps between +6/+12 degrees C) will overspread our area on Friday as a cold front approaches Minnesota from the Northern Plains.  This boundary should pass through Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from late Friday Afternoon through Friday Night.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 30s and 40s.  South or southwest winds at 10-25 mph are expected on Friday with winds turning to the north Friday Night under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

An upper level low will move from the Southwest U.S. to the Central Plains this weekend while a surface low passes by to our south/southeast.  This system will bring some rain to areas along and south of a line from Brainerd east to Park Falls with some light rain possibly spreading as far north as Grand Rapids and the Twin Ports.  Rain chances will spread from south to northeast on Saturday with a lingering rain threat into Sunday the way it looks now.  High temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s Saturday and Sunday with lows both nights in the 30s and 40s.  There will also be a rather brisk onshore wind this weekend near Lake Superior with E/NE winds possibly gusting to 25-30 mph thanks to an area of high pressure off to our N/NE while the low passes through the Central Plains.

Quite a bit of spread is noted with Today's long range models for next week.  A very strong jet stream will be slamming into the Western U.S. by early next week with at least one low pressure system tracking through the Northern Plains into Central Canada...This low is expected to deepen to between 978-983 mb between Monday-Wednesday.  The models are having difficulty on if a secondary low spins up across the Southern Plains around the middle of next week, and if it does whether or not it tracks far enough west to impact our local weather.

At this time it appears that will see some rain in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Monday and Tuesday with additional precipitation which could be in the form of snow or rain during the middle to end of next week.  If that secondary system develops and takes a westerly track (close to our area) then we could be dealing with some accumulating snowfall for some part/s of our local area.  This solution doesn't look too likely at the moment, but with a changing weather pattern anything is possible.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph, decreasing to 5 to 15 mph and becoming west.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 58 to 63.  Wind south to southwest at 12 to 23 mph.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind becoming north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  Light rain possible late.  Breezy.  High 45 to 50.  Chance of rain 30%.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Light rain possible.  Breezy.  Low 38 to 43.  Chance of rain 30%.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 47 to 52.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 38 to 43.

.Monday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 48 to 53.  Chance of rain 30%.

Normals for Today:

High:  50 degrees
Low:  33 degrees

Tim

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

10/20/10: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:34 PM CDT, Wednesday, October 20th, 2010

Weather tidbits:

*Today marks the 17th day in a row with an above normal high temperature at Duluth, Minnesota.  This streak may come to an end on Thursday.

*Going into Today, the last time Duluth, Minnesota saw at least 0.01" of precipitation was on October 9th, 2010.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

It's been an interesting day as a potent upper level disturbance and upper level trough digs S/SE from Southern Ontario Province.  The combination of cold temperatures aloft (-25/-28 degree C H5 temps) Steep lapse rates >6.5 c/km, and instability (CAPE around 100 j/kg) has resulted in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Today in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  The main threat from this activity Today has been from strong wind gusts due to powerful mid and upper level winds of 100-120 knots which were centered over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Today.  Wind gusts from 30-55 mph have been occurring in some of the showers This Afternoon, in fact at 2:27 PM CDT Today a spotter reported a 55 mph wind gust at Wirt, Minnesota (Itasca County) with several poplar trees 6-8" in diameter downed due to the high winds, power was also knocked out per local storm report.  Outside of these gusty showers, skies were partly sunny to mostly cloudy Today with high temperatures in the middle 40s to middle 50s with a few 60s in southwest parts of our area.  Note:  Much colder air with temperatures in the 30s were occurring Today just north of Minnesota This Afternoon.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500 mb pattern remains the same as the last few days with an upper level low near Southern California, a blocking pattern in Northeastern Canada while a fast northwest flow aloft continued over the Upper Midwest.

Tonight:

A strong upper level disturbance will exit our local area to the south/east This Evening.  Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin before 7 PM, then the remainder of Tonight will be dry with the exception to this being in the Arrowhead of Minnesota where patchy drizzle possibly mixing with flurries will occur.  There may also be a few lake effect rain showers late Tonight in Northwest Wisconsin, mainly from Ashland to Hurley.  Cold advection will be occurring throughout the night with 850 mb temperatures falling to between zero/-6 degrees C by dawn.  Low temperatures Tonight will be in the 30s, but some 20s are likely in Northern Minnesota.  Winds Tonight will be out of the north or west at 10-20 mph, but gusts of 25-50 mph will continue in a few of the showers early Tonight. 

Thursday and Thursday Night:

High pressure will be in control of our weather during this period with a cool airmass in place.  Highs on Thursday will be in the 40s and lower 50s with lows Thursday Night in the 20s and 30s.  Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies are expected Tomorrow with mostly clear skies Tomorrow Night.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 10-25 mph on Thursday with variable winds under 15 mph Tomorrow Night.

Extended Forecast:

An upper level low will track into the Southwest U.S. through Thursday Night, before moving into the Central Plains this weekend.  Most of the forecast models have trended farther north with this system compared to previous days, and if this northward trend holds up, then we could see some rain at times beginning on Saturday and lasting into Sunday...Right now it still looks like areas from Brainerd east to Park Falls and points south from there would have the greater rain chances this weekend, but a few showers can't be ruled out as far north as the Twin Ports, Grand Rapids, and Walker.  High temperatures on Friday will be in the 50s and 60s with highs for Saturday in the 40s and 50s.  Low temperatures Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.  Looking ahead to next week features another low pressure system which will pass to our northwest, but a secondary low may develop and lift northeast out of the Central Plains.  Possible merging of the lows and when colder air arrives will be difficult for the models to predict this far out in time...But the trends continue to show up per long range model guidance for colder air and lowering thickness values to move in around the middle of next week to support a rain/snow mix or all snow shower/flurry event for portions of our local area sometime around the middle or the end of next week...Before then, expect some rain during the Monday/Tuesday time frame.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Breezy.  A few showers before 7 PM.  Variable cloudiness.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph early.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 45 to 50.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 28 to 33.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 52 to 57.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 50 to 55.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 38 to 43.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 47 to 52.

Normals for Today:

High:  51 degrees
Low:  33 degrees

Tim

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

10/19/10: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:33 PM CDT, Tuesday, October 19th, 2010

Low temperature report for Tuesday, October 19th, 2010.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Crane Lake, MN:  25 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  20 degrees
Floodwood, MN:  24 degrees
Kabetogama, MN:  25 degrees
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  22 degrees
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  21 degrees
International Falls, MN:  26 degrees

...A big pattern change is expected to take place for next week...The first snow of the season could fall by the middle or end of next week...

Note:  Average 1st measurable snow at Duluth, Minnesota:  October 24th.
Note:  Average first 1.0" snowfall at Duluth, Minnesota:  November 4th

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure of 1016 mb was centered in Western Missouri with low pressure of 1002 mb centered along the Manitoba/Ontario Province line as of 3 PM.  A cold front connected to that low was over Central Manitoba Province with a warm front covering Southern Ontario Province to Central Lake Superior.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies prevailed in our area Today with high temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s.  There's been some radar echoes moving E/SE through Northern Minnesota Today, but dry air in place has prevented any rain from reaching the ground.  Note:  Fire danger in all of Northern Minnesota is on the high side Today per Minnesota DNR website.  Winds Today were out of the southwest at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A blocking pattern remains in place across Northeastern Canada while a cutoff low was centered near Southern California Today per water vapor satellite imagery.  A northwest flow aloft was in place over the Upper Midwest in between the upper low to our northeast and the one over So-Cal.

Tonight through Wednesday Night:

Low pressure will pass by to our N/NE during this period while a cold front drops south and through Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight and Tomorrow.  A strong upper level jet >110 knots will move into the Upper Midwest during this period and could provide enough lift when combined with the cold front to cause a few sprinkles or light rain showers in Northern-Northeast Minnesota Tonight and Tomorrow, moisture however, is lacking so any rain that does fall would be very light with mainly trace amounts expected.  Colder air dropping south behind this low could cause the sprinkles to mix with snow flurries late Tomorrow Night in extreme Northeast Minnesota.  This same system is expected to bring a few inches of snow to Western-Central Ontario Province, possibly as far south as Thunder Bay Ontario Canada.  Low temperatures Today will be in the 30s and 40s with highs Tomorrow in the mainly in the 50s, but some far northern areas could hold in the 40s.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 20s and 30s.  Winds Tonight will be out of the southwest or west at 10-20 mph, wind speeds will increase to 15-30 mph Tomorrow with southwest/west winds turning northwest.  Those northwest winds will then continue Tomorrow Night, but will decrease to 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A crisp Autumn day is in store for Thursday as 850 mb temperatures drop to between +2/-4 degrees C in our local area which will result in daytime highs holding in the 40s to around 50 degrees.  A few flurries or sprinkles are possible in extreme Northeast Minnesota Thursday Morning, otherwise the period from Thursday through Friday Night should remain dry.  Low temperatures Thursday Night will be in the 20s and 30s with highs on Friday warming into the 50s and lower 60s as southerly winds and warm advection develop behind an area of high pressure that will push south/east through the Northern/Central Plains.  A dry cold frontal passage is expected Friday Night, then an area of high pressure will pass through Central Canada this weekend while low pressure heads northeast from the Southwest U.S.  At this time it appears that the system this weekend will bring it's greatest rainfall south of our local area, but a few showers could reach the Brainerd, Pine City, Shell Lake, Hayward, and Park Falls areas from Saturday into Sunday.  Behind this first system will be a powerhouse 150+ knot upper level jet which will slam into the Western U.S.  A fairly strong area of low pressure will likely develop while passing northwest/north of Minnesota next week.  This system could bring some rain to our area early next week, then as colder air and thickness values drop behind the low, the potential does exist for the rain to mix with and possibly change over to some snow/flurries sometime the middle or end of next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday...  Breezy.  Variable cloudiness.  High 52 to 57.  Wind west at 15 to 25 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 45 to 50.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 27 to 32.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 52 to 57.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.

Normals for Today:

High:  51 degrees
Low:  34 degrees

Tim