Wednesday, September 29, 2010

9/29/10: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:26 PM CDT, Wednesday, September 29th, 2010

Note:  Arctic air is building over portions of Alaska...Here are some low temperatures from Monday Night/Tuesday Morning in Northern Alaska.  A brief cool snap is forecasted to move into the Upper Midwest this weekend, with perhaps a stronger cold air surge sometime around the middle part of October, although without any snow cover just yet, we won't be dealing with any subzero cold just yet.

Eielson AFB:  3 degrees
Fort Yukon:  0 degrees
Bettles:  0 degrees
Circle Hot Springs:  -5 degrees
Near Delta:  -3 degrees
Chicken:  -5 degrees

Weather History:

On this date in 1984...  A record low temperature of 25 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 996 mb was centered in Northern Ontario Province as of 4 PM with a cold front attached to this low continuing on it's eastward track through Central Wisconsin late Today.  This system brought a period of clouds and showers along with an a spotty thunderstorm or two across our area This Morning into early This Afternoon...Then skies cleared out briefly, before the upper level trough with it's cold air aloft approached the Upper Midwest This Afternoon.  500 mb temperatures around -17 degrees C combined with LAPSE RATES of 6.0-8.0 c/km with CAPES <500 j/kg and Lifted Indicies from +1/-2 degrees C caused isolated showers and thunderstorms This Afternoon over Northeast Minnesota and far Northwest Wisconsin.  High temperatures Today warmed nicely for late September with 60s and lower 70s common Today while winds were out of the west or northwest at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest flow aloft prevailed across the Upper Midwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery with an upper level trough pushing south/east through Central Canada/Minnesota/and the Northern Great Lakes.

Tonight:

Isolated showers or thunderstorms will end before 9 PM with partly to mostly cloudy skies continuing thereafter.  Brief heavy downpours, small hail up to 0.25" in diameter, occasional lightning strikes and wind gusts to 35 mph are possible in the strongest storms before 7 PM.  Lows Tonight will mainly be in the 40s, but a few 30s are possible in the typical cold spots.  Winds Tonight will be out of the west or north at 10-20 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

High pressure will be centered across the Northern Plains through this period which will result in dry conditions for Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies for Thursday will become partly cloudy Thursday Night.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 30s and 40s.  North or west winds under 20 mph are forecast during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Northerly flow aloft will develop on Friday and will continue most of the weekend with strong high pressure >1032 mb building south/southeast from Central Manitoba Province.  An upper level disturbance moving southeast through our area could trigger a few showers on Friday in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with mainly dry conditions then expected from Friday Night into early next week, although with the colder airmass coming into the area and moving over the warmer waters of Lake Superior, some lake effect rain showers could develop during the Friday Night-Saturday time period for areas along the South Shore of Lake Superior, including Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties.  High temperatures will be in the 40s to near 50 degrees in Northern Minnesota with 50s for the rest of our area on Friday with highs Saturday in the 40s and 50s.  Low temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s both nights.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Isolated showers before 8 PM.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 42 to 47.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 60 to 65.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 50 to 55.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Saturday...  Variable cloudiness.  High 48 to 53.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 27 to 32.

.Sunday...  Mostly sunny.  High 50 to 55.

Normal High Temperature Today 60 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Today 40 degrees

Tim

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

9/28/10: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:04 PM CDT, Tuesday, September 28th, 2010

Weather tidbits:

*65 degree high temperature on Monday, September 27th, 2010 at Duluth, Minnesota was the warmest high temperature since September 12th when the high temperature was 68 degrees.

*9/27/10 marked only the 6th time this month with an above normal high temperature at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Plenty of clouds persisted throughout the day in Northwest Wisconsin back through Eastern and Northeastern Minnesota while skies started to clear out This Afternoon over Northern Minnesota.  High temperatures Today ranged from the upper 40s to middle 50s near Lake Superior with mid 50s to lower 60s for the rest of our area.  Winds Today were out of the east, south or north under 20 mph.  Surface map as of 2 PM featured high pressure of 1014 mb centered over Central Ontario Province with low pressure of 998 mb centered in Southeast Ontario Province with low pressure of 1000 mb centered along the Saskatchewan-Manitoba Province line.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Water vapor satellite imagery reveals a rather amplified weather pattern in place across the U.S.  A strong jet stream >110 knots was in place from the Central Pacific through Central Canada with a N/NW 500 mb flow covering the Upper Midwest while a large upper level ridge of high pressure covered the Western U.S. while an upper level low was in place over the Eastern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region.

Tonight:

High pressure will be centered to our north/east while low pressure stays off to our northwest.  A cold front attached to this low should be entering western parts of our area toward dawn.  Warm advection will be in full swing Overnight with 850 mb temperatures of around +6 degrees C This Afternoon increasing to +8/+14 degrees C later Tonight as southerly winds develop out ahead of this low pressure system.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with lows generally in the 40s, but a few locales could slip into the 30s depending on sky conditions.  Winds Tonight will be out of the east or south under 20 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Low pressure will move into Central Ontario Province during this period with a cold front attached to this low pushing southeast through our area on Wednesday which will also be accompanied by a rather potent disturbance and cold temperatures aloft (500 mb temps around -15 degrees C) Partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies are forecast for Tomorrow with scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms with dry conditions returning Wednesday Night under partly-mostly cloudy skies.  No severe weather is expected on Wednesday due to a limited amount of moisture and instability, but some brief heavy downpours, occasional lightning strikes and wind gusts up to 30-35 mph are possible in the strongest activity.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s and 60s, but a few southern locales could reach 70 degrees.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s.  Westerly winds from 10-25 mph are expected during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Dry weather is forecast in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Thursday and Thursday Night
with highs in the 50s to lower 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s.  The 500 mb flow will amplify beginning on Friday and continuing through the weekend with a sharp northerly flow developing over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest with strong high pressure around 1035 mb building east from the Northern Plains.  A few showers are possible on Friday throughout our area with mainly dry conditions then expected for Saturday, although a few lake effect rain showers could develop along the South Shore of Lake Superior, mainly affecting the counties of Bayfield, Ashland and Iron in Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs on Friday will be in the 50s with some northern areas possibly holding in the 40s.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy with some clearing developing.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind southeast around 12 mph.

.Wednesday...  Variable cloudiness.  A few showers or isolated thunderstorms developing.  High 62 to 67.  Wind west at 15 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 55 to 60.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 40 to 45.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 50 to 55.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Saturday...  Variable cloudiness.  High 48 to 53.

Normal High Temperature Today 60 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Today 41 degrees

Tim

Monday, September 27, 2010

9/27/10: Thunderstorm in Duluth, Minnesota

Here's a few photos from Today's surprise thunderstorms that hit Duluth, Minnesota around 2 PM CDT.  Enjoy the pics.  I also shot some video which includes quite a bit of loud thunder, but I used common sense and didn't venture too far outside since the lightning Today was the dangerous Cloud to Ground stuff.  The videos can be found on my youtube page...http://www.youtube.com/burr30 or my facebook page at http://www.facebook.com/timothy.burr1




9/27/10: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:14 PM CDT, Monday, September 27th, 2010

Weather tidbits:

*Low temperature of 31 degrees at the Duluth Airport on Sunday, September 26th, 2010 was the first time since May 10th, 2010 with a minimum temperature of 32 degrees or lower.

*Last year's first freezing (32 degrees) low temperature occurred on October 8th at Duluth, Minnesota compared to September 26th this year.

Low temperature report for Monday, September 27th, 2010.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Hayward WI:  33 degrees
Sky Harbor MN:  32 degrees
Two Harbors MN:  34 degrees
Silver Bay MN:  28 degrees
Superior WI:  34 degrees
Embarrass MN:  22 degrees
Floodwood MN:  28 degrees
Butternut WI:  30 degrees
Upson WI:  30 degrees
Gordon WI:  30 degrees
Spooner WI:  31 degrees
Solon Springs WI:  33 degrees

Low temperature report for Sunday, September 26th, 2010.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth MN:  31 degrees
International Falls MN:  34 degrees
Hibbing MN:  27 degrees
Ashland WI:  28 degrees
Hayward WI:  27 degrees
Two Harbors MN:  28 degrees
Silver Bay MN:  25 degrees
Grand Marais MN:  25 degrees
Ely MN:  25 degrees
Crane Lake MN:  28 degrees
Eveleth MN:  28 degrees
Aitkin MN:  32 degrees
Cloquet MN:  30 degrees
Superior WI:  28 degrees
Siren WI:  29 degrees
Bruno MN:  29 degrees
Embarrass MN:  22 degrees
Floodwood MN:  28 degrees
2 miles south of Tower MN:  28 degrees
7 miles northwest of Two Harbors MN:  26 degrees
Butternut WI:  31 degrees
Danbury WI:  32 degrees
Solon Springs WI:  29 degrees

Weather History:

*On this date in 1987...  A record high temperature of 83 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
*On this date in 1991 and previous years...  A record low temperature of 27 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A not so dry front after all.  A cold front has moved into Eastern Minnesota late This Afternoon.  Enough moisture with dewpoints in the 40s to around 50 degrees combined with PWS around 0.80" in combination with some lift provided by a 110 knot jet streak over the Red River Valley of Minnesota caused some showers and thunderstorms over the North half of Minnesota This Morning which moved into Northeast-Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Afternoon.  Dangerous lightning strikes and brief heavy downpours have been the main risks from these storms Today.  Favorable LAPSE RATES >6.5 c/km and cold temperatures aloft -14 degrees C also contributed to these surprise storms Today.  High temperatures Today ranged from the lower to middle 50s in far Northeast Minnesota with 60s to lower 70s for the rest of our area.  Winds Today were out of the south, west or north under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.  A large upper level low was in place from the Ohio Valley through the Southeast U.S. while a massive upper level ridge of high pressure prevailed over the Western U.S.

Tonight:

A fairly strong disturbance and cold front will exit Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Evening.  A few showers in eastern parts of Northwest Wisconsin and also in the Arrowhead of Minnesota will come to an end This Evening, otherwise for Tonight expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with the potential for a few lake effect rain showers Overnight, generally from Bayfield through Ashland and Iron counties in Northwest Wisconsin.  Lows Tonight will be in the 40s with some 30s in northern areas.  Winds will shift to the north in all locations at 10-20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

High pressure will stretch from Central Ontario Province south to the Upper Midwest on Tuesday before it shifts off to our south/east by Tuesday Night.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies are expected on Tuesday with the possibility for a few lake effect rain showers during the Morning along the South Shore of Lake Superior, possibly also affecting areas west toward the Twin Ports.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s with 60s from the Brainerd Lakes and areas west-northwest.  Winds Tomorrow will be out of the north/east under 20 mph.  Partly cloudy skies are forecast Tuesday Night with lows in the 30s and 40s with variable winds turning to the south.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure averaging 991 mb will move across Central Canada on Wednesday with a cold front and a potent upper level disturbance/upper trough pushing south/east through the Upper Midwest.  This appears to be a similar setup to what happened Today, so a few showers and perhaps even a late season thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday.  Highs will be in the 50s and 60s, but a few southern areas could approach 70.  Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 30s and 40s with any showers ending early in the Evening.  Dry weather is on tap for Thursday and Thursday Night with highs in the 50s to lower 60s with lows in the 30s to lower 40s.  Looks like the pattern will amplify late this week or this weekend with a northerly flow aloft developing across the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest.  A couple of chilly Autumn days are possible if this pattern develops, and there might even be a few lake effect rain showers from Friday Night into Saturday Night along the South Shore of Lake Superior, some of these rain showers could mix with ice pellets or snow flakes at night or during the early Morning hours especially if the long range models are correct by showing 850 mb temperatures lowering to -4/-7 degrees C by Saturday.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph, becoming north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  Showers possible early.  High 53 to 58.  Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 37 to 42.  Wind variable at 5 to 12 mph.

.Wednesday...  Variable cloudiness.  Afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 55 to 60.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 40 to 45.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.

Normal High Temperature Today 61 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Today 41 degrees

Tim

Saturday, September 25, 2010

9/25/10: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:29 PM CDT, Saturday, September 25th, 2010

All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*FREEZE WARNING*

Timing:

1 AM CDT Tonight until 8 AM CDT Sunday

Counties included in the warning:

Northern Cook MN...Northern Lake MN...Central and Northern St. Louis MN...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Iron WI...Washburn WI...Sawyer WI...and Price WI...

Some cities included in the warning:

Forest Center MN...Ely MN...Crane Lake MN...Orr MN...Hibbing MN...Melrude MN...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Cable WI...Ashland WI...Butternut WI...Hurley WI...Mercer WI...Minong WI...Shell Lake WI...Hayward WI...Exeland WI...Park Falls WI...Phillips WI...and Ogema WI...

Discussion:

Mostly clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to fall into the middle 20s to lower 30s in the warning area Tonight and early Sunday which will result in a widespread frost and killing freeze.

A freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely.  These conditions will kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

*FROST ADVISORY*

Timing:

1 AM CDT Tonight until 8 AM CDT Sunday

Counties included in the advisory:

Southern Cook MN...Southern Lake MN...Southern St. Louis MN...Carlton MN...Pine MN...Douglas WI...and Burnett WI...

Some cities included in the advisory:

Hovland MN...Grand Portage MN...Grand Marais MN...Silver Bay MN...Finland MN...Two Harbors MN...Duluth MN...Floodwood MN...Cromwell MN...Moose Lake MN...Hinckley MN...Pine City MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Danbury WI...Grantsburg WI...and Siren WI...

Discussion:

Mostly clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to fall into the lower to middle 30s in the advisory area Tonight which will result in areas of frost.

A frost advisory means that frost is possible.  Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

Rainfall report for Friday, September 24th, 2010.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth MN:  0.17"
International Falls MN:  0.25"
Hibbing MN:  0.18"
4 miles south of Bruno MN:  0.23"
Embarrass MN:  0.48"
Floodwood MN:  0.21"
Kabetogama MN:  0.52"
3 miles east of Orr MN:  0.54"
Silver Bay MN:  0.23"
Finland MN:  0.25"
Gurney WI:  0.23"
9 miles north of Bayfield WI:  0.24"
Washburn WI:  0.21"

Low temperature report for Saturday, September 25th, 2010.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth MN:  37 degrees
International Falls MN:  33 degrees
Hibbing MN:  32 degrees
Hayward WI:  33 degrees
Superior WI:  34 degrees
Eveleth MN:  36 degrees
Bruno MN:  35 degrees
Littlefork MN:  35 degrees
Embarrass MN:  33 degrees
Floodwood MN:  32 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A low pressure disturbance dropped south-southeast out of the Northern Plains earlier Today and passed well southwest of our local area This Afternoon.  A few light rain showers or sprinkles on the eastern side of this low did make it into the Brainerd Lakes/Aitkin area This Morning, otherwise partly-mostly cloudy skies This Morning turned sunnier during the Afternoon in most areas, but clouds were still a little more extensive especially in far western-southwest areas.  Winds Today were calm or light easterly in direction with high temperatures in the middle 50s to lower 60s which continues the trend of how September has been thus far (below normal) Note:  Today marks the 21st day this month with a below normal high temperature at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northerly flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery as a pretty vigorous disturbance drops S-SE from the Upper Midwest to the Central Plains.  Thursday-Friday's storm which affected the Upper Midwest has moved into Eastern Canada Today while an upper level ridge which covered most of the Southern-Eastern U.S. last week retrogrades to it's new position across the Southwest U.S./Rockies/and Western U.S. Today.

Tonight through Sunday Night:

An area of high pressure averaging 1025 mb will be over our local area Tonight before shifting off to our south/east for Sunday and Sunday Night.  Clear-partly cloudy skies will be found in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin during this period with lows in the 20s and 30s Tonight along with areas of frost and patchy fog.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 30s and 40s.  Nearly calm wind Tonight will turn southerly under 20 mph Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night.

Extended Forecast:

A few cold fronts will pass through the Upper Midwest next week.  One sometime Monday or early Tuesday, the other around mid-week.  Minimal moisture associated with these fronts should lead to mainly dry conditions across our area from Monday through Friday of next week with high temps in the 50s and 60s Monday and Tuesday, but a few locales could push toward 70 degrees on Monday, mainly in southern areas.  Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the 40s, maybe some 30s in the north.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*FROST ADVISORY* in effect from 1 AM CDT Tonight until 8 AM CDT Sunday

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Areas of frost developing.  Low 32 to 37.  Wind east around 12 mph.

.Sunday...  Mostly sunny.  High 58 to 63.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 62 to 67.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 38 to 43.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 60 to 65.

Normal High Temperature Today 61 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Today 42 degrees

Tim

Friday, September 24, 2010

9/24/10: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:25 PM CDT, Friday, September 24th, 2010

...Recap of Thursday's strong storm system that affected the Upper Midwest...

Rainfall report for Thursday, September 23rd and Friday, September 24th, 2010.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Danbury WI (Burnett County)  3.61"
Butternut WI (Ashland County)  2.93"
International Falls MN (Koochiching County)  2.37"
4 miles west of Clam Lake WI (Burnett County)  2.51"
Finland MN (Lake County)  1.42"
Sarona WI (Washburn County)  2.51"
Hayward WI (Sawyer County)  1.91"
Kabetogama MN (St. Louis County)  1.70"
Northome MN (Koochiching County)  2.85"
Ashland WI (Ashland County)  2.22"
Silver Bay MN (Lake County)  1.21"
Gurney WI (Iron County)  1.98"
4 miles south of Bruno MN (Pine County)  1.10"
Cloquet MN (Carlton County)  1.20"
Maple WI (Douglas County)  1.55"
Gile WI (Iron County)  2.40"
4 miles north of Grantsburg WI (Burnett County)  4.10"
Trade Lake WI (Burnett County)  2.40"
2 miles southwest of Littlefork MN (Koochiching County)  2.92"

Brainerd MN:  0.48"
Grand Marais MN:  0.40"
Hibbing MN:  0.63"
8 miles south of Bigfork MN:  1.16"
Cook MN:  0.54"
Embarrass MN:  0.45"
Floodwood MN:  0.59"
Grand Portage MN:  1.00"
Mercer WI:  3.22"
Upson WI:  2.40"
Winter WI:  2.82"
Washburn WI:  1.91"

*Record 24 hour rainfall total at Minneapolis, Minnesota*

1.88" of rain fell at the Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport on Thursday, September 23rd, 2010 which broke the previous 24 hour rainfall record of 1.20" which was set in 1977.

...Here are some additional flood reports from Today, Friday, September 24th, 2010 via storm spotters and emergency management...

*Faribault MN (Rice County)  Cannon River flooded over 2nd ave. northwest.  Flooding up to and into 1st ave. northwest.  Water treatment plant is flooded.
*Zumbro Falls MN (Wabasha County)  Zumbro River crested at 11:59 AM CDT Today.  2/3rd's of the town is inundated with water.  Homes have water to the bottom of first story windows.  Propane tanks floating.  Town has been evacuated.
*I-35 is closed in both directions due to water over the road between Minnesota Highway 30 (North) to Highway 14 in Owatonna, Minnesota.

Historical amounts of rain fell across Southern Minnesota between Wednesday, September 22nd and Friday, September 24th, 2010.

*Here's how the totals ranked in a 48 hour period at some select cities in Minnesota

Amboy MN:  10.68" (1st)
Winnebago MN:  7.98" (3rd)
Zumbrota MN:  7.66" (2nd)
Waseca MN:  7.65" (1st)
Blue Earth MN:  6.73" (2nd)
Faribault MN:  5.56" (2nd)
Springfield MN:  5.47" (1st)

*Here's how the totals ranked during Meteorological Fall (September 1st-November 30th)

Amboy MN:  10.68" (1st)
Winnebago MN:  7.98" (3rd)
Zumbrota MN:  7.66" (1st)
Waseca MN:  7.65" (1st)
Blue Earth MN:  6.73" (2nd)
Faribault MN:  5.56" (1st)
Springfield MN:  5.47" (1st)

Note:  The official rainfall total on Thursday at the Duluth Airport was 0.96".  Peak wind gusts during this storm were in the 40-45 mph range.

A wet and cold month across Minnesota.  Rainfall totals and average monthly temperature through September 23rd, 2010.

International Falls, MN:  4.05"/1.64" Above Normal.  49.7 degrees/4.8 degrees Below Normal.
Twin Cities, MN:  5.51"/3.35" Above Normal.  61.0 degrees/1.3 degrees Below Normal.
St. Cloud, MN:  7.11"/4.77" Above Normal.  57.2 degrees/1.5 degrees Below Normal.
Duluth, MN:  2.95"/0.35" Below Normal.  52.2 degrees/3.6 degrees Below Normal.  11 days so far this month has had at least 0.01" of precipitation at Duluth, yet were somewhat below average.

Weather History:

On this date in 2000...  A record low temperature of 26 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Deep low pressure (994 mb) has moved into Eastern Lake Superior late Today with high pressure (1020 mb) extending from the Northern through the Central Plains.  Mostly cloudy skies were found on the backside of this storm Today across our area, although there has been a few peeks for sunshine every now and then...Some more showers have also fallen Today across Northern-Northeast Minnesota and also over parts of Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs Today due to the clouds and cold advection (850 mb temps around +2 degrees C) were in the mid 40s to mid 50s with a few locales (Pine River and Brainerd) in the upper 50s/low 60s Today.  Winds were out of the north or west Today at 10-20 mph with gusts as high as 25-40 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A powerful upper level low and surface low was passing through Central-Eastern Lake Superior per water vapor satellite imagery with an upper level trough covering Central Canada down through the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest.  Behind this strong storm was another disturbance which was moving southeast out of the Northern Rockies.  Strong upper level jet stream winds >110 knots were located over the Eastern Great Lakes and also in Eastern Alberta Province per RUC model analysis.

Tonight:

Strong Autumn storm will continue to move away from our area This Evening with high pressure pushing east from the Northern Plains while the disturbance over Southeast Montana late Today reaches the Northern Plains during the night.  Skies Tonight will vary between partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers will come to an end This Evening in Northeast and Northwest Wisconsin, then the rest of Tonight will be dry across our area.  Lows Tonight will be in the 30s and 40s.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph into mid-Evening.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

High pressure will be centered to our north while a low pressure disturbance continues to drop south-southeast, passing west-southwest of our immediate area.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies are on tap for Saturday with a few showers possible, mainly in Western-Southern areas.  Dry weather is expected Tomorrow Night.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees with lows Tomorrow Night mainly in the 30s, but some 20s are possible in the typical cold spots.  Variable to east winds will occur during this period under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A pattern much more typical of September will finally develop for the Upper Midwest for next week and possibly into early October.  We will see the occasional cold front move through the region as low pressure systems pass by to our north, but these systems should be starved for moisture, so only a wind shift and transitions from warm to cold advection will occur and probably some clouds at times, but little if any rain is expected from Sunday (9/26) through all of next week Sunday (10/3).  High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s Sunday and Monday, but a few spots could push toward 70 degrees both days.  Low temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s Sunday Night and mainly 40s for Monday Night.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Breezy early.  Considerable cloudiness with patchy light rain showers early.  Some partial clearing late.  Low 37 to 42.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph, wind decreasing to 10 to 20 mph during the Evening.

.Saturday...  Variable cloudiness.  High 53 to 58.  Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 33 to 38.  Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Mostly sunny.  High 57 to 62.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 40 to 45.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 60 to 65.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 60 to 65.

Normal High Temperature Today 62 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Today 42 degrees

Tim

9/24/10: FALL FOLIAGE REPORT NUMBER 2

Issued at 3:36 PM CDT, Friday, September 24th, 2010

Fall Foliage Report for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Sources:  Minnesota DNR and Travelwisconsin.com

In Minnesota:

25-50% color change in Duluth and the Jay Cooke State Park area.

10-25% color change around the Brainerd Minnesota area.

50-75% color change along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

75-100% color change for Southern Koochiching and the Northcentral part of Itasca County...This would include the areas from Bigfork and Marcell, west to Spring Lake and Wirt, and north to Craigville.

The remainder of Northern-Northeast and Eastern Minnesota are experiencing 50-75% color change at this time.

Note:  Peak conditions should take place within the next week or so.

In Wisconsin:

Douglas County (Superior)  51-75% color change

Bayfield County (Bayfield and Cable)  26-50% color change

Ashland County (Ashland)  26-50% color change

Iron County (Hurley and Mercer)  76-100% color change

Burnett County (Grantsburg)  51-75% color change

Washburn County (Birchwood)  0-25% color change.  (Minong)  51-75% color change.  (Spooner)  26-50% color change.

Sawyer County (Hayward)  26-50% color change.  (Winter)  76-100% color change.

Price County (Park Falls and Phillips)  51-75% color change.

Tim

Thursday, September 23, 2010

9/23/10: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 2:37 PM CDT, Thursday, September 23rd, 2010

...1 IN 25 YEAR FLOOD FOR SOME COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...

A serious situation has developed from Southcentral Minnesota through Central Wisconsin as wave after wave of heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms developed along and north of a warm front from Thursday Evening through Today...  Here are some of the storm reports via the weather channel and local storm spotters and media reports from the affected areas...

*Roads closed in/out of Arcadia, Wisconsin
*Owatonna, Truman, Minnesota and Arcadia, Wisconsin have been hit the worst, so far.
*Pulaski, Wisconsin.  Water over hood of car, foundations of homes.
*Mandatory evacuation in Arcadia, Wisconsin due to flooding.
*Pine Island, Minnesota...Volunteers needed to help sandbag.
*Northbound Highway 52 between County Road 11 and Highway 60 in Pine Island, Minnesota could be closed for up to one week per MNDOT report due to flooding.
*Wood county Wisconsin...Emergency management says no unnecessary travel.  Many roads closed.
*Reports of gas and electricity shut off to avoid fires.  Half the strees are flooded in Truman, Minnesota.  Sewage backups in Mapleton and Amboy, Minnesota.
*Numerous roads washed out in Trempealeau county, Wisconsin.  Wisconsin Governer Doyle issues a State Of Emergency for the county.
*Minneapolis/St. Paul...Near record moisture in the air for September.
*Chippewa River at Eau Claire, Wisconsin could flood Downtown and some homes this weekend.  Highest water level since 1993.
*Major route between Minneapolis/St. Paul and Rochester, Minnesota...US 52 is shut down between Zumbrota and Pine Island, Minnesota.

Here are some rainfall totals from Southcentral Minnesota...These totals are from last night through early Today...Additional rain is falling in these areas Today...

Springfield, MN (Brown County)  4.00"
St. James, MN (Watonwan County)  6.00"
Amboy, MN (Blue Earth County)  10.50"...Serious flooding on the Minnesota River
3 miles south of Claremont, MN (Dodge County)  6.10"
Northfield, MN (Rice County)  5.20"
Cannon Falls, MN (Goodhue County)  4.85"
Red Wing, MN (Goodhue County)  2.73"
Zumbro Falls, MN (Wabasha County)  6.37"
Rochester, MN (Olmsted County)  4.20-4.55"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Needless to say most of the forecast models bombed on this particular storm with most of them way too high on how much rain they were predicting especially from the Twin Ports, west and north.  Low pressure of 997 mb and still deepening was moving into Southwest Minnesota as of 3 PM with a strong warm front stretching from Southcentral Minnesota to Central Wisconsin with a trough centered over Eastern North Dakota.  Widespread rain has been falling most of the day in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota with the steadier rain finally making it to the Twin Ports early This Afternoon...Steady rain also fell most of Today from the Brainerd Lakes region east through Aitkin County Minnesota.  North of these areas, showers have been much more scattered from Hibbing and Ely into the Arrowhead and back to International Falls.  High temperatures Today were mainly in the 50s, but 60s were common from Siren and Hayward east to Park Falls and Phillips.  Winds Today were out of the east at 10-20 mph, but gusts from 25-40 mph have occurred near Lake Superior.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A strong upper level low/upper trough was progressing E/NE across the Northern Plains Today per water vapor satellite imagery with a plume of deep tropical moisture (PWS of 1.50-2.20") in place ahead of this storm from the Southern Plains to the Upper Midwest.

Tonight:

Low pressure (993-995 mb) will track from near the Buffalo Ridge of Southwest Minnesota to Western Upper Michigan by daybreak.  Widespread rain, locally heavy at times will continue This Evening over all of Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota with rain becoming more scattered and possibly ending all together in these areas by Midnight if not sooner as a dry slot advances northeast out of Southwestern Minnesota.  The deformation band of rain which has been hitting Northwest Minnesota and North Dakota Today will shift E/NE and move into Northcentral Minnesota by mid-Evening and will continue through the Overnight hours.  Otherwise for Tonight, mostly cloudy skies will persist along with areas of drizzle and fog especially in Northwest Wisconsin, west to the Twin Ports and also including Eastern Minnesota.  Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with winds out of the east, south or north at 10-20 mph with gusts to 40 mph continuing This Evening near Lake Superior where *Gale Warnings* remain in effect through Midnight CDT Tonight.

Note:  *FLOOD WATCH* continues through late Tonight for Pine County Minnesota and for Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland, Iron, Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer and Price Counties in Wisconsin.  Some cities included in the watch are:  Hinckley MN...Pine City MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...  Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Cable WI...Ashland WI...Butternut WI...Hurley WI...Mercer WI...Danbury WI...Grantsburg WI...Minong WI...Shell Lake WI...Hayward WI...Exeland WI...Park Falls WI...Phillips WI...and Ogema WI.

Friday and Friday Night:

Deep low pressure averaging 992 mb will reach Central-Eastern Lake Superior on Friday before moving into Eastern Canada by Friday Evening.  Rain and areas of drizzle will persist Friday Morning in Northern Minnesota with patchy drizzle or light rain showers affecting Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  The threat for precipitation should decrease from west to east by Friday Afternoon with dry conditions moving in by Friday Night.  Mostly cloudy skies with highs in the 40s and 50s are forecast Tomorrow with lows Tomorrow Night in the 30s and 40s under partly to mostly cloudy skies.  North winds at 10-20 mph are expected Tomorrow with higher gusts...Winds Tomorrow Night will be variable or west/northwest under 20 mph.

Note:  Total rainfall amounts by Friday Afternoon should average between 0.50-1.00" through most of our local area with heavier amounts of 1-2" possible in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota.

Extended Forecast:

An upper level low will drop S/SE out of the Northern Plains on Saturday with high pressure off to our north.  Cold air aloft combined with the approaching of the 500 mb low could result in the development of some showers on Saturday, especially in Western-Southern parts of our local area.  The weather from Saturday Night into Sunday Night looks dry at this point as the upper low pushes S/SE of the Upper Midwest.  High temperatures will be mainly in the 50s on Saturday with 50s and 60s in store for Sunday.  Lows in the 30s and 40s are forecast for both Saturday and Sunday Night.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*GALE WARNING* IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 AM CDT TONIGHT FOR THE TWIN PORTS HARBOR.

.Tonight...  Windy, especially This Evening.  Rain tapering off to occasional light rain and drizzle This Evening.  Patchy fog.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph.  Wind decreasing to 10 to 20 mph late and becoming north.

.Friday...  Breezy.  Areas of light rain or drizzle possible, mainly during the Morning.  Mostly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.  Wind north at 15 to 25 mph.

.Friday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 37 to 42.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 50 to 55.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 37 to 42.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 57 to 62.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 40 to 45.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 58 to 63.

Normal High Temperature Today 62 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 42 degrees

Tim

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

9/22/10: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:33 PM CDT, Wednesday, September 22nd, 2010

...All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota...

*FLOOD WATCH*

Timing:

1 AM CDT Tonight through late Thursday Night

Counties included in the watch:

Cass MN...Crow Wing MN...Aitkin MN...Southern St. Louis MN...Carlton MN...Pine MN...Douglas WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Iron WI...Burnett WI...Washburn WI...Sawyer WI...and Price WI...

Some cities included in the watch:

Cass Lake MN...Walker MN...Pillager MN...Fifty Lakes MN...Brainerd MN...Pine Center MN...Hill City MN...Aitkin MN...McGrath MN...Floodwood MN...Duluth MN...Cromwell MN...Moose Lake MN...Hinckley MN...Pine City MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Cable WI...Ashland WI...Butternut WI...Hurley WI...Mercer WI...Danbury WI...Grantsburg WI...Minong WI...Shell Lake WI...Hayward WI...Exeland WI...Park Falls WI...Phillips WI...and Ogema WI...

Discussion:

Rainfall totals of 1-4" are possible in the watch area from Tonight through late Thursday Night. Prolonged heavy rain and thunderstorms may result in street flooding and blocked culverts from run-off and debris. Flood prone areas will likely experience the greatest impact from the heavy rain.

A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. Monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Weather Tidbits:

*Average monthly temperature at Duluth, Minnesota through September 21st.
52.6 degrees/3.6 degrees below average.

*Rainfall total at Duluth Minnesota, through 9/21: 2.12" which is 0.92" below average.

*New summertime record for nighttime lows in the Twin Cities. June through August low temperatures were nearly 5.0 degrees warmer than average. The average low temperature from June through August is 60.5 degrees...This year saw an average nighttime low of 65.4 degrees! The previous record was 65.1 degrees set in 1939. Source: Pete Boulay. Minnesota State Climate Office/Paul Douglas, St. Cloud Times.

*Temperature at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport climbed from the middle to upper 50s at mid-Afternoon Monday (9/20/10) to 80 degrees just before Midnight Monday Night as a powerful warm front lifted north out of southern Minnesota on Monday.

September 2010 at Duluth, Minnesota has seen the fewest 70 and 80 degree days dating back to 2005...

September 2005: 11 days>70 degrees and 5 days>80 degrees.
September 2006: 7 days>70 degrees and 2 days>80 degrees.
September 2007: 5 days>70 degrees and 5 days>80 degrees.
September 2008: 6 days>70 degrees and 1 day>80 degrees.
September 2009: 18 days>70 degrees and 2 days>80 degrees.
September 2010: 1 day>70 degrees...Ending on September 22nd.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 1010 mb was centered in southwest North Dakota with another 1010 mb low extending from southern to northeast Colorado. A warm front as of 3 PM extended from central Nebraska to central Iowa with numerous showers and thunderstorms developing north of this boundary Today across southeast South Dakota, southern Minnesota and portions of northwest Iowa and northeast Nebraska. These storms Today have been prolific hail producers with over 30 reports of large hail (1.00 to as big as 4.25" in diameter) being reported so far Today per Storm Prediction Center with the axis of the hail confined to southeast South Dakota and northeast Nebraska thus far. Well north of the warm front across our local area, skies were starting to cloud up from southwest to northeast with high temperatures Today in the 50s, except for lower to middle 60s from Brainerd to Pine City, east through Siren, Hayward and Phillips. Winds Today were out of the east generally under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery show a southwest flow aloft developing once again across the Upper Midwest This Afternoon as a potent upper level trough heads east out of the Pacific Northwest with another piece of energy ejecting northeast out of the Southwest U.S. A few disturbances running out ahead of the main system over the Western U.S. has resulted in the showers and thunderstorms Today across portions of the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains.

Tonight:

Low pressure will deepen to around 1003 mb Tonight as it heads northeast into central Nebraska with a warm front inching north toward the Minnesota-Iowa border during the night. A disturbance moving E-NE out of the Northern Plains combined with a 30-45 knot southerly low level jet, and lift occurring along and north of the warm front will combine forces with continued warm air advection and deep moisture transport...Note: PWS This Afternoon of 0.60-0.80" will climb to 1.00-1.75" Overnight... All these factors mentioned above will cause areas of rain and isolated thunderstorms in northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Tonight. At this time it appears that the heaviest rainfall for Tonight (1.00" or greater amounts) will setup south of our local area, but rain totals nearing an inch are possible Tonight in southern areas, or along and south/southeast of a line from Pine City Minnesota to Hurley Wisconsin. Mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 40s and 50s can be expected Tonight with easterly winds at 5-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph, especially near Lake Superior.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Low pressure will deepen to around 995 mb during this period as it lifts northeast into southern or central Minnesota by late Thursday Afternoon, this low will then move into northcentral Wisconsin Thursday Night. Strong forcing/lift associated with this low and north of a warm front which will remain south of our local area will result in widespread rainfall across northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from Thursday into Thursday Evening. With PWS of 1.00-1.75" and 850 mb td's of +8/+12 degrees C in place, the threat for very heavy rainfall does exist especially from eastcentral Minnesota through all of northern Wisconsin through Thursday Evening. By Thursday Night, a dry slot lifting northeast may cause the rain to end in portions of northwest Wisconsin, possibly even in eastern Minnesota while northern Minnesota continues to see some rain most of the night. Instability looks limited for Tomorrow, but isolated thunderstorms could develop through Tomorrow Evening across northwest Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota. High temperatures Tomorrow will be in the 40s and 50s, but a few 60s could sneak north into the Hayward, Park Falls and Phillip areas in northwest Wisconsin. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Winds Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night will be out of the east or northeast at 10-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph especially near Lake Superior.

*Gale Watch* continues for Western and Central Lake Superior, including the Twin Ports Harbor for Thursday Afternoon and Thursday Evening. Northeasterly gales up to 45 knots with peak wave heights of 11 feet are expected during this event.

Rainfall totals between Tonight and Friday should range from 0.50-1.50" across our area, but there will be areas that receive higher amounts of 2-4"...Right now this area looks to be in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota.

Extended Forecast:

Deep low pressure (992-995 mb) will reach Upper Michigan and Eastern Lake Superior on Friday...Lingering areas of rain are expected through Friday Morning across our area, then we should see drier conditions Friday Afternoon into Friday Night. A new area of low pressure will then drop south/southeast out of the Northern Plains on Saturday, this disturbance combined with an area of cold temperatures aloft (near -20 degrees C at 500 mb) could promote the development of a few showers on Saturday across our area. Highs will be mainly in the 50s both Friday and Saturday with lows in the 30s and 40s both nights in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*FLOOD WATCH* in effect from 1 AM CDT Tonight through late Thursday Night...

*GALE WATCH* in effect for the Duluth/Superior Harbor for Thursday Afternoon and Thursday Evening...

.Tonight... Breezy. Mostly cloudy with occasional showers developing after 7 PM. Low 45 to 48. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

.Thursday... Windy. Scattered showers possible during the Morning becoming a steadier rain during the Afternoon. High 48 to 53. Wind east at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

.Thursday Night... Windy with occasional rain. Low 40 to 45. Wind east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Wind becoming north at 10 to 20 mph late.

.Friday... Breezy. Mostly cloudy with occasional rain. High 50 to 55. North wind could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

.Friday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45.

.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 50 to 55. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 38 to 43.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 57 to 62.

Normal High Temperature Today 62 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 43 degrees

Tim

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

9/21/10: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:18 PM CDT, Tuesday, September 21st, 2010

Local Storm Report for Monday Night/Tuesday Morning, September 20th-21st, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

*10:55 PM CDT 9/20/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 1 mile west of Kimball WI (Iron County) Trees down over Lake Head Road, south of U.S. Highway 2.

*4:20 AM CDT 9/21/10: 0.75" diameter hail. Hurley WI (Iron County)

*4:25 AM CDT 9/21/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 3 miles northwest of Hurley WI (Iron County) Several trees over Defer Road.

Note: Temperatures aloft were just too warm for thunderstorms to develop in Northeast Minnesota Monday Night, and by the time the air aloft cooled enough, the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms had shifted into Northwest Wisconsin through the southern half of Minnesota early Tuesday Morning as the low pressure system and it's warm front and cold front exited the north-east parts of Minnesota around Midnight-1 AM This Morning. The Storm Prediction Center did issue a *Severe Thunderstorm Watch* around 2 AM This Morning for much of northwest Wisconsin through Southcentral Minnesota, and a few severe thunderstorms did develop between 1-4 AM Today around Minneapolis and also in far western-northern Wisconsin into western Upper Michigan.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Strong low pressure averaging 994 mb has moved into southern Hudson Bay as of 3 PM with high pressure of 1016 mb building southeast out of western Saskatchewan Province. Quite a bit of cloudiness has been spreading south-southeast through the area Today on the backside of the deep low to our northeast. High temperatures Today due to the clouds and cold advection (850 mb temps of +2/+6 C in far Northwest Wisconsin and Northern Minnesota) were in the 50s to lower 60s, but milder mid 60s and low 70s were common over portions of Northwest Wisconsin. Winds Today were out of the northwest or west at 5-15 mph with higher gusts to 25 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

The flow aloft has transitioned to zonal, (west to east) Today over the Upper Midwest. The next system of interest for the Upper Midwest is currently moving onshore into Oregon-northern California This Afternoon with another system dropping southeast out of western Canada per water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight:

High pressure will continue to build southeast out of western Saskatchewan Province with partly to mostly cloudy skies covering northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s with winds out of the northwest or west around 20 mph or less.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

High pressure will remain in control of our weather for Wednesday with partly to mostly cloudy skies and highs in the 50s and 60s. By Wednesday Night, the high moves off to our north/east with low pressure taking shape across the Central Rockies. The cold front which moved through our area earlier Today will stall out and turn into a warm front during this period with this boundary heading into Southern Minnesota by Wednesday Night. Warm and moist advection will get underway by Wednesday Night with PWS of one half to three quarters of an inch on Wednesday increasing to 1.00-1.50" by Wednesday Night. Rain and a few thunderstorms should develop by Wednesday Night, especially south of a line from Walker to Duluth to Ashland. Some of the rain could be heavy at times Tomorrow Night, especially in far southern areas...including the Pine City, Grantsburg, Shell Lake and Minong areas where rainfall amounts of one half to one inch are possible. North of here, rain totals should remain under one quarter inch. Mostly cloudy skies are expected for Wednesday Night with lows in the 40s to lower 50s. Winds will shift to the east during this period at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts.

Extended Forecast:

Deep low pressure averaging 991-995 mb is forecast to reach eastern Nebraska/southeast South Dakota Thursday Morning before moving across the southern half of Minnesota Thursday Afternoon, then into northcentral Wisconsin by late Thursday Night. This low combined with a warm front which will remain south of our local area will result in a continued threat for rain in northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from Thursday into early Friday. Some of the rain will be heavy at times, especially in northwest Wisconsin back into eastcentral Minnesota...rain totals in these areas could reach 1-2" by late Thursday Night. Rainfall totals in northern Minnesota should be less, generally under one half inch the way it looks now. Isolated thunderstorms could also occur for Thursday and Thursday Evening from eastern Minnesota through northern Wisconsin. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 40s and 50s with gusty easterly winds which could reach 25-35 mph near Lake Superior. Note: *Gale Watch* is in effect for portions of Lake Superior, including the Duluth-Superior Harbor area for Thursday Afternoon and Thursday Evening. Wave heights could approach 10 feet at the peak of this event as northeast winds increase to 40 knot gales!

Rain should continue in our area Thursday Night, but should begin to decrease from west to east during the night. Lows Thursday Night will be in the 40s to around 50 degrees.

Strong low pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes on Friday with a threat for some lingering showers across our area. Highs on Friday will be in the 50s with lows Friday Night in the 30s and 40s...Mainly dry conditions should return to northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin for Friday Night.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*Gale Watch* in effect for the Twin Ports Harbor from Thursday Afternoon through Thursday Evening

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy with some clearing developing late. Low 40 to 45. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Partly sunny. High 55 to 60. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Occasional rain possible. Low 43 to 48. Wind east ato 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Thursday... Breezy with occasional rain. High 48 to 53. East winds could occasionally gust to 30 mph. Chance of rain 80%.

.Thursday Night... Occasional rain. Mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Chance of rain 70%.

.Friday... A few showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 55 to 60. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45.

.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 55 to 60. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 63 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 43 degrees

Tim

Monday, September 20, 2010

9/20/10: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:54 PM CDT, Monday, September 20th, 2010

Low temperature report for Monday, September 20th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

International Falls MN: 34 degrees

Ashland WI: 34 degrees

Silver Bay MN: 30 degrees

Grand Marais MN: 30 degrees

Ely MN: 30 degrees

Superior WI: 37 degrees

Embarrass MN: 28 degrees

3 miles east of Orr MN: 31 degrees

2 miles south of Tower MN: 33 degrees

Butternut WI: 35 degrees

Upson WI: 33 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Quick changes are taking place across the Upper Midwest Today as a strong area of low pressure (1000 mb) which was centered in southern South Dakota at 4 PM heads northeast. A very strong warm front extends east of that low through the south half of Minnesota late Today and seperates 80 and 90 degree heat and 60+ degree dewpoints from southern Minnesota through parts of Iowa, Nebraska and South Dakota to temperatures in the 50s and dewpoints in the 40s and 50s across our local area Today. Widespread stratus clouds along with areas of haze/fog/drizzle have been occurring across our area Today as we sit north of that warm front. There is alot of warm air moving in aloft Today with 4 PM 850 mb temperatures of +10/+20 degrees C for areas south of the Iron Range while 700 mb temperatures late Today ranged from +10/+14 degrees C which is resulting in a very formidable cap which has prevented thunderstorms from breaking out Today, this despite increasing amounts of elevated CAPE This Afternoon. Winds Today were out of the southeast or east at 10-25 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Southwest flow aloft has developed across the Upper Midwest Today per RUC model analysis with a potent low pressure system heading east out of the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains late This Afternoon.

Tonight:

Low pressure will continue on it's northeast track, reaching Western Ontario Province Overnight. A warm front currently over Southern Minnesota will surge N/NE This Evening on the nose of an impressive 40-65 knot southerly low level jet! A cold front will also head east and will move through northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Tonight. Very strong warm and moist advection will continue This Evening ahead of this system with dewpoints in the 50s with some 60s moving into southern areas. PWS will remain in the 1.00-1.25" range with 850 mb td's of +8/+14 degrees C.

Lift associated with the low/fronts along with the low level jet combined with some forcing associated with a 90-110 knot upper level jet streak which will spread E/NE out of the Dakotas should be enough to overcome the strong cap that is in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop between 6-8 PM and will continue until around 1-3 AM. Plenty of CAPE (around 1000 j/kg) to support vigorous thunderstorm development will be in place through early Tuesday Morning with Lifted Indicies of -1/-5 degrees C. Around 40 knots of SHEAR will also be in place This Evening along with off the chart HELICITY values >500 m2/2! A few of the thunderstorms that develop could become severe during the mid to late Evening hours across our local area with the main threat coming in the form of large hail. Although a wind damage and isolated tornado threat may also develop especially in southern parts of our area, between 7 PM-11 PM Tonight.

Mostly cloudy skies will clear out somewhat Overnight. Areas of drizzle and fog will continue mainly through Midnight. Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with winds out of the southeast or east, shifting to the southwest at 10-25 mph.

Note: Rainfall totals for Tonight should generally be under one quarter inch, although any thunderstorm that develops will have the potential of producing locally heavier amounts.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Low pressure will be tracking through central-eastern Ontario Province on Tuesday with high pressure building into the Upper Midwest. A few showers could linger Tomorrow Morning in Northwest Wisconsin, otherwise expect mainly dry conditions during this period. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 30s and 40s. Winds will be out of the west at 10-25 mph Tomorrow and under 20 mph Tomorrow Night.

Extended Forecast:

Dry weather should continue on Wednesday in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with high pressure still in control, highs will be in the 50s and 60s. High pressure moves off to our north/east by Wednesday Night as low pressure develops across the Rockies and Western High Plains. This system will head E/NE, likely passing just south of our local area during the Thursday-Thursday Night time period. Rain is forecast to develop and spread N/NE across the area Wednesday Night-early Thursday and will linger into Thursday Night before coming to an end. Some of the rain could be locally heavy, but where the heaviest axis of rain sets up is handled differently with the forecast models due to differing tracks this late week low may take. Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 40s to around 50 degrees with highs on Thursday nearly steady in the 40s and 50s. Lows Thursday Night will be mainly in the 40s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Areas of haze, fog and light drizzle through Midnight. Scattered showers or thunderstorms developing after 8 PM, then ending Overnight. Mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph with a few higher gusts. Wind becoming southwest at 10 to 20 mph Overnight.

.Tuesday... Breezy. Variable cloudiness. High 62 to 67. Wind west at 15 to 25 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 38 to 43. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 55 to 60.

.Wednesday Night... Increasing cloudiness. Rain possible toward dawn. Low 43 to 48. Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday... Occasional rain. Isolated thunderstorms also possible. Mostly cloudy. High 50 to 55. Chance of rain 70%.

.Thursday Night... Occasional rain, tapering off late. Mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Chance of rain 70%.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 55 to 60.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 63 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 43 degrees

Tim

Sunday, September 19, 2010

9/19/10: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:45 PM CDT, Sunday, September 19th, 2010

...RECORD COLD SEPTEMBER IN PROGRESS AT DULUTH, MINNESOTA...

*The average temperature through the first 18 days of September, 2010 was 52.9 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota making it the 8th coldest start to a September on record. The coldest September ever recorded in Duluth, Minnesota occurred in 1974 with an average temperature of 50.5 degrees. Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Note: Meteorological summer (June-August) was the 8th warmest on record at Duluth, Minnesota.

Low temperature report for Sunday, September 19th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth MN: 36 degrees

International Falls MN: 33 degrees

Hibbing MN: 30 degrees

Ashland WI: 35 degrees

Hayward WI: 31 degrees

Ely MN: 32 degrees

Bigfork MN: 34 degrees

Pine River MN: 34 degrees

Moose Lake MN: 32 degrees

McGregor MN: 34 degrees

Superior WI: 36 degrees

Siren WI: 34 degrees

Phillips WI: 36 degrees

Bruno MN: 32 degrees

Cook MN: 32 degrees

Embarrass MN: 27 degrees

Floodwood MN: 31 degrees

Kabetogama MN: 33 degrees

2 miles south of Tower MN: 31 degrees

Upson WI: 31 degrees

4 miles west of Clam Lake WI: 34 degrees

Weather History:

On this date in 1984... A record high temperature of 90 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Mid and high level clouds which were rather extensive over our area This Morning and early This Afternoon gave way to increasing amounts of sunshine late Today. High temperatures were the middle 50s to lower 60s Today with a dry airmass still in place with PWS of 0.40-0.70" with dewpoints only in the 30s. Winds Today were variable under 15 mph as high pressure of 1024 mb centers itself over Northern Minnesota.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Westerly flow at 500 mb continued Today over the Upper Midwest with a large low pressure system covering Hudson Bay/Northeast Canada while an upper level trough heads east out of the Pacific Northwest while a broad 500 mb high pressure ridge covers the Central-Southern U.S./Southern Rockies Today per water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight:

High pressure will begin to ease off to our north/east while a couple areas of low pressure averaging 1000 mb head into the Northcentral Rockies/Western High Plains. Clear-partly cloudy skies during the Evening will become partly-mostly cloudy Overnight. Lows will be in the 30s and lower 40s Tonight, but some 20s can't be ruled out in the typical cold spots. Patchy frost could develop Overnight, especially away from Lake Superior. Winds Tonight will become easterly under 15 mph.

Monday and Monday Night:

Strong warm/moist advection pattern will overspread our area during this period as low pressure of around 996 mb heads northeast from the Northern Plains to Southern Ontario Province. A warm front currently over the Central Plains will lift north-northeast during this period with a cold front heading east out of the Dakotas and through most of our local area Monday Night. A very strong southerly low level level jet of 40-65 knots will develop Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night over our area which will result in a rapid influx of deep moisture. Dewpoints which will start the day in the 30s and lower 40s are expected to climb into the 55-64 degree range by Monday Evening while 850 mb td's increase to between +8/+12 degrees C Monday Afternoon/Evening with PWS coming up to around 1.00-1.25". Warm advection will be just as impressive with 850 mb temperatures of +2/+6 degrees C early Monday Morning surging to between +12/+20 degrees C by Monday Afternoon/Night.

Instability will increase Monday Afternoon and Monday Night due to the strong low level jet and warm/moist advection pattern. Elevated CAPE is forecast to range from 500-1200 j/kg during that aforementioned time period with Lifted Indices falling to between zero/-3 degrees C. There will also be plenty of SHEAR in place with 40-50 knots of 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR and around 30 knots of EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR per 15z SREF model run. The negative continues to be the very strong cap that is expected to spread northeast into Minnesota Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night as 700 mb temperatures soar to between +8/+12 degrees C which is very strong for mid-September.

Scattered showers or thunderstorms should develop at times across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin by Monday Afternoon into Monday Night as this low pressure system and it's warm front/cold front move through. There should be enough forcing and lift near this system and also near the low level jet to overcome the cap which should allow for some thunderstorm development. At this time it appears that hail will be the main risk from these storms and some of that hail could reach severe criteria (1" in diameter)

High temperatures on Monday will be mainly in the 50s with lows Monday Night in the 40s and 50s. Winds will be out of the east at 10-25 mph on Monday and from the south, east or west at 10-20 mph Monday Night.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will exit to our northeast on Tuesday with high pressure building into the Upper Midwest from Tuesday Afternoon into Wednesday. Some showers could linger on Tuesday, mainly in Northwest Wisconsin and possibly in far Northeast Minnesota, otherwise it looks mainly dry for Tuesday Night and Wednesday. Highs will be in the 50s and lower 60s on Tuesday with lows Tuesday Night in the 30s and 40s. Highs for Wednesday will be in the 50s to near 60 degrees with lows Wednesday Night mainly in the 40s. The storm for late this coming week continues to be on track per latest model runs. Low pressure is expected to lift northeast out of the Rockies and Western High Plains with widespread rain which could be heavy along with a few thunderstorms spreading into our area during the late Wednesday Night into Thursday Night time frame.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear during the Evening with skies becoming partly to mostly cloudy late. Low 38 to 43. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday... Breezy. Considerable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible during the Afternoon. High 55 to 60. Wind east at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday Night... Scattered showers or thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy. Low 48 to 53. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph becoming southwest Overnight. Chance of rain 50%.

.Tuesday... A few showers possible early. Variable cloudiness. High 58 to 63. Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 38 to 43.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 55 to 60.

.Wednesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 43 to 48.

.Thursday... Occasional rain. Isolated thunderstorms also possible. Mostly cloudy. High 53 to 58. Chance of rain 70%.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 63 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 43 degrees

Tim

Saturday, September 18, 2010

9/18/10: Weather Report

Issued at 4:37 PM CDT, Saturday, September 18th, 2010

...All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota...

*FROST ADVISORY*

Timing:

12 AM CDT Tonight until 6 AM CDT Sunday

Counties included in the advisory:

Southern St. Louis MN...Aitkin MN...Crow Wing MN...Cass MN...Carlton MN...Pine MN...Douglas WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Iron WI...Burnett WI...Washburn WI...Sawyer WI...and Price WI...

Some cities included in the advisory:

Duluth MN...Floodwood MN...Hill City MN...Aitkin MN...Brainerd MN...Cross Lake MN...Pine Center MN...Leader MN...Longville MN...Cass Lake MN...Cromwell MN...Moose Lake MN...Hinckley MN...Pine City MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Cable WI...Ashland WI...Butternut WI...Hurley WI...Mercer WI...Danbury WI...Grantsburg WI...Minong WI...Shell Lake WI...Hayward WI...Exeland WI...Park Falls WI...Phillips WI...and Ogema WI...

Discussion:

Mostly clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the middle 30s across the advisory area Tonight. Areas of frost will develop Overnight into early Sunday.

A frost advisory means that frost is possible. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

*FREEZE WARNING*

Timing:

12 AM CDT Tonight until 6 AM CDT Sunday

Counties included in the warning:

Cook MN...Lake MN...Central and Northern St. Louis MN...Itasca MN...and Koochiching MN...

Some cities included in the warning:

Hovland MN...Grand Portage MN...Grand Marais MN...Silver Bay MN...Forest Center MN...Isabella MN...Two Harbors MN...Hibbing MN...Makinen MN...Ely MN...Crane Lake MN...Bigfork MN...Grand Rapids MN...International Falls MN...Littlefork MN...and Northome MN...

Discussion:

Mostly clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to tumble into the middle 20s to lower 30s in the warning area Tonight. Frost and a killing freeze is expected by Sunday Morning.

A freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

Low temperature report for Saturday, September 18th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth MN: 35 degrees

International Falls MN: 32 degrees

Two Harbors MN: 34 degrees

Silver Bay MN: 34 degrees

Grand Marais MN: 34 degrees

Ely MN: 34 degrees

Orr MN: 34 degrees

Bigfork MN: 32 degrees

Longville MN: 32 degrees

Superior WI: 37 degrees

Littlefork MN: 35 degrees

Cook MN: 32 degrees

Embarrass MN: 31 degrees

Floodwood MN: 34 degrees

Kabetogama MN: 34 degrees

2 miles south of Tower MN: 33 degrees

Weather History:

On this date in 2000 and previous years... A record high temperature of 84 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure averaging 1026 mb was centered in Central South Dakota late Today with low pressure covering Hudson Bay Canada. Partly cloudy-sunny skies were found across our area Today with high temperatures in the middle to upper 50s. The airmass is very dry with dewpoints This Afternoon only in the 30s with PWS of just around 0.30"! Winds Today were out of the west or northwest under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A large upper level low pressure system covered northern-northeast parts of Canada Today per water vapor satellite imagery with a strong upper level jet >100 knots occurring on the southwest side of this low per RUC model analysis. The 500 mb flow across the Upper Midwest was generally out of the west Today. A new upper level trough/upper low was heading toward the Pacific Northwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight:

High pressure will head into the Upper Midwest, look for clear-partly cloudy skies with west or northwest winds under 15 mph. Lows will be in the 20s and 30s with areas of frost for most areas, along with a killing freeze generally north-northwest of a line from Grand Rapids to Grand Marais Minnesota.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

High pressure will remain over the Upper Midwest during this period, look for partly-mostly cloudy skies with highs Tomorrow in the 50s to lower 60s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 30s and 40s. West or northwest winds under 20 mph are expected on Sunday with winds turning to the east Sunday Night under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

High pressure ridge will shift off to our north/east on Monday with low pressure developing across the Western High Plains. This low is expected to deepen a bit with pressures falling to around 997 mb as it heads northeast across the Northern Plains, toward Northern Lake Superior from Monday into Tuesday Morning. A warm front attached to this low will surge north Monday and Monday Night with a cold front heading east through our area Monday Night/Tuesday Morning.

This system will have some moisture to work with as dewpoints climb into the 50s by late Monday while PWS increase to around 1.25" with 850 mb td's of around +10 degrees C by Monday Evening/Overnight. A strong low level jet of 40-55 knots is also expected to develop across the Upper Midwest Monday and Monday Night and this will result in a strong warm advection pattern spreading south to north across Minnesota on Monday. 850 mb temperatures which will start the day around +4/+6 degrees C are forecast to rise to between +12/+20 degrees C by Monday Night! Instability, especially in the form of elevated CAPE is also forecast to surge north/east into our area by Monday Afternoon and Monday Night with CAPES of around 500-1000 j/kg. The issue with this system will be the strong mid level cap as 700 mb temperatures soar to between +8/+12 degrees C early next week which is very warm for this time of year. There should be some showers or thunderstorms in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as this system passes through our local area from Monday into Tuesday Morning, there could even be an isolated severe thunderstorm Monday Evening or Overnight, but this would depend on whether or not the mid levels can cool enough which doesn't look very likely at the moment.

This low pressure system exits to our north/east on Tuesday with some lingering showers mainly in Northwest Wisconsin and far Northeast Minnesota. Dry weather is then expected Tuesday Night through Wednesday with high pressure moving into the Upper Midwest. The next shot for some rain will come late next week (Thursday and or Friday)

High temperatures for Monday and Tuesday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Monday Night in the 40s and 50s with 30s and 40s expected for Tuesday Night.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*FROST ADVISORY* IN EFFECT FROM 12 AM CDT TONIGHT UNTIL 6 AM CDT SUNDAY.

.Tonight... Partly cloudy. Areas of frost possible late. Low 35 to 40. Wind west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Partly sunny. High 57 to 62. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind becoming east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 55 to 60. Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday Night... Showers at times. A few thunderstorms also possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 47 to 52. Chance of rain 50%.

.Tuesday... Showers possible mainly early. Mostly cloudy. High 55 to 60. Chance of rain 40%.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 38 to 43.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 55 to 60.

Normal High Temperature Today 64 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 44 degrees

Tim

Friday, September 17, 2010

9/17/10: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 2:43 PM CDT, Friday, September 17th, 2010

...All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota...

*FROST ADVISORY*

Timing:

3 AM CDT until 8 AM CDT Saturday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Southern Cook MN...Southern Lake MN...Southern St. Louis MN...Carlton MN...Aitkin MN...Crow Wing MN...and Cass MN...

Some cities included in the advisory:

Grand Portage MN...Hovland MN...Grand Marais MN...Finland MN...Silver Bay MN...Two Harbors MN...Duluth MN...Brookston MN...Floodwood MN...Cromwell MN...Carlton MN...Moose Lake MN...Hill City MN...McGrath MN...Aitkin MN...Cross Lake MN...Brainerd MN...and Pine Center MN...

Discussion:

Temperatures are expected to dip into the middle 30s Tonight in the advisory area which will result in areas of frost Overnight into early Saturday Morning.

A frost advisory means that frost is possible. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

*FREEZE WARNING*

Timing:

3 AM CDT until 8 AM CDT Saturday.

Counties included in the warning:

Koochiching MN...Itasca MN...Central and Northern St. Louis MN...Northern Lake MN...and Cook MN...

Some cities included in the warning:

International Falls MN...Northome MN...Bigfork MN...Grand Rapids MN...Hibbing MN...Crane Lake MN...Ely MN...Melrude MN...and Forest Center MN.

Discussion:

Low temperatures are expected to drop into the 27-32 degree range in the warning area which will result in an early Autumn freeze.

A freeze warning means freezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

Rainfall report for Friday, September 17th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

International Falls MN: 0.37"

Cass Lake MN: 0.16"

Northome MN: 0.23"

Kabetogama MN: 0.27"

3 miles east of Orr MN: 0.15"

2 miles south of Tower MN: 0.15"

Note: The remainder of our local area also saw some showers earlier Today, but rainfall amounts were less than 0.15".

Low temperature report for Friday, September 17th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Littlefork MN: 34 degrees

Northome MN: 32 degrees

Kabetogama MN: 31 degrees

3 miles east of Orr MN: 28 degrees

2 miles south of Tower MN: 32 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A cold front as of 2 PM extended from central Lake Superior through central Wisconsin to far southeast Minnesota with high pressure (early season arctic origin) of 1028 mb centered over western Canada and the northern Rockies. Very cold temperatures with 30s and 40s have plunged south Today into northern and western North Dakota through parts of Montana with Afternoon 850 mb temperatures of zero/-4 degrees C lurking just west-northwest of our local area. Strong F-GEN forcing has caused areas of rain and mixed rain, sleet and snow Today over portions of Montana and western North Dakota. Temperatures were warmer throughout our area Today with highs in the 55-65 degree range with a tight 850 mb temperature gradient in place, ranging from +1 degree C in far Northern Minnesota to +11 degrees C in southern parts of Northwest Wisconsin. Mostly cloudy skies were found in most of Northwest Wisconsin Today due to the cold front moving through that area, more clouds were approaching northern Minnesota from the west This Afternoon, while in between there was a narrow area of clearing in Northeastern Minnesota. Winds Today were out of the north or west at 10-20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis indicates a westerly 500 mb flow in place across the Upper Midwest with a strong mid level jet of 90 knots just off to our northwest-north This Afternoon with an upper level jet >120 knots centered over the Manitoba Lakes and western Ontario Province. Impressive 12 hour 500 mb height falls of 90-150 meters were occurring Today in central Canada near a strong upper level low which was associated with -34 degree C H5 temperatures and 500 mb heights of 5340 meters!

Tonight through Saturday Night:

A strong upper level and surface area of low pressure will move into Hudson Bay Canada through this period while a high pressure ridge stays off to our west/northwest. A strong mid/upper level jet near and north of our local area will cause occasional mid-high level clouds through Tomorrow Night and strong F-GEN forcing moving east out of the Northern Plains Tonight may even generate a few sprinkles or light rain showers Tonight around the Brainerd Lakes, Aitkin and Pine City Minnesota areas. Temperatures Tonight and Saturday Night will be tricky due to the intervals of clouds that will pass through on occasion. Expect mainly 30s and lower 40s for low temperatures both Tonight and Saturday Night, but some 20s are possible in the typical cold spots. Areas of frost could develop Tonight and Tomorrow Night across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with a chance for a killing freeze Tonight from Grand Rapids to the Arrowhead and points northwest of there. High temperatures on Saturday will top out mainly in the 50s. Winds will be out of the west or northwest at 5-15 mph with some higher gusts through Tomorrow Night.

Extended Forecast:

High pressure ridge will be in control of our weather for Sunday and Sunday Night, highs will be in the 50s with lows in the 30s to lower 40s. This ridge of high pressure scoots off to our east for early next week which will be followed by an area of low pressure which is expected to move E-NE out of the western High Plains on Monday and toward western-central portions of Lake Superior on Tuesday. Some rain and possible thunderstorms should develop Monday, but more likely Monday Night and Tuesday Morning across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as this system moves through. Another low pressure system with a farther south track could spread some rain into our area sometime later next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR DULUTH FROM 3 AM CDT UNTIL 8 AM CDT SATURDAY*

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy frost possible late, especially away from Lake Superior. Low 35 to 40. Wind northwest to west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. High 55 to 60. Wind northwest to west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Partly sunny. High 55 to 60.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 40 to 45.

.Monday... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 55 to 60. Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday Night... Showers at times. A few thunderstorms also possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 47 to 52. Chance of rain 50%.

.Tuesday... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 55 to 60. Chance of rain 40%.

Normal High Temperature Today 64 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 44 degrees

Tim

9/17/10: FALL FOLIAGE REPORT

Issued at 2:28 PM CDT, Friday, September 17th, 2010

Fall foliage reports will be issued each Friday Afternoon until past peak conditions occur.

Report as of September 15th-16th, 2010. Source: Minnesota DNR and travelwisconsin.com

In Northern Minnesota:

Northwest-western Koochiching and far western Cass counties: 25-50% color.
Indus, Manitou, Loman, Northome, Gemmell and Mizpah in Koochiching county including locations along and west of Highway 71 and Highway 11 are some locations that are seeing some nice color change per minnesota dnr.

The Walker and Hackensack areas in western Cass county are other spots that are seeing some nice color change at this time.

The remainder of Northeast and Eastcentral Minnesota are seeing 10-25% color change at this time with the exception being in the Twin Ports, down through Jay Cooke State Park and also in the southwestern portion of Crow Wing county where only 0-10% color change has been reported by the Minnesota DNR.

In Northwest Wisconsin:

Douglas county (Superior WI) 0-25% color change.

Burnett county (Grantsburg WI) 0-25% color change.

Washburn county (Birchwood WI and Spooner WI) 0-25% color change.

Bayfield county (Cable WI) 0-25% color change.

Sawyer county (Hayward WI) 0-25% color change. (Winter WI) 26-50% color change.

Ashland county (Ashland WI) 0-25% color change.

Iron county (Hurley WI and Mercer WI) 26-50% color change.

Price county (Park Falls WI and Phillips WI) 0-25% color change.

Note: Peak conditions for most of our local area should occur during the next 2-5 weeks.

Tim