Tuesday, August 31, 2010

8/31/10: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:15 PM CDT, Tuesday, August 31st, 2010

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A cold front which brought the showers and embedded thunderstorms to the area last night and early Today was now centered over Eastern Minnesota as of 3 PM. A muggy and warm airmass continued along and ahead of this boundary Today with drier and cooler conditions behind this front. High temperatures were in the 70s to lower 80s Today with dewpoints ranging from the 50s in Western-Northwest areas (behind the cold front) to the 60s/70s elsewhere. Winds Today were out of the south or west at 10-20 mph with a few higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Broad upper level trough continued to cover the Western U.S. Today with an 80 knot mid level jet streak and a 110 knot upper level jet streak in place over parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest Today out ahead of this 500 mb trough.

Tonight:

Look for the cold front to pass through Eastern Minnesota-Northwest Wisconsin This Evening. There is still a risk for some showers or thunderstorms before Midnight, mainly along and south-east of a line from Shell Lake to Ashland Wisconsin. CAPES will generally be less than 1000 j/kg This Evening ahead of the cold front with Lifted Indices around -3 degrees C. The better shear is found along and west of the cold front, so the prospects for severe weather are relatively low across Northwest Wisconsin early Tonight. Heavy downpours, wind gusts up to 40 mph and occasional lightning strikes will be the main risks if any thunderstorms do develop. Otherwise look for partly-mostly cloudy skies across our area Tonight with lowering humidity and cooler temperatures compared to the past few nights. Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with westerly winds at 10-20 mph ushering in 40-50 degree dewpoints along with cold advection with 850 mb temps falling from +12/+16 degrees C to around +7/+10 degrees C during the night.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

High pressure will move across the Upper Midwest on Wednesday with partly cloudy-mostly sunny skies. High temps will mainly be in the 70s with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s, winds will be out of the west, north or east under 20 mph. By Wednesday Night, high pressure moves off to our east while a new area of low pressure takes aim at the Upper Midwest. Tonight's cold front will stall out and turn into a warm front by Wednesday Night, but this boundary will remain well to our south. Look for some rain and isolated thunderstorms to spread north/east into our local area by Wednesday Night along with mostly cloudy skies. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s with south or east winds under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will deepen as it lifts N/NE into Lake Superior from Thursday into Friday while an upper level trough digs south/east into the Upper Midwest. Much cooler temperatures with highs in the 60s to around 70 degrees are forecast on Thursday with 50s and 60s expected on Friday. Low temps will be in the 40s and 50s both nights, but some 30s can't be ruled out in the typical cold spots for Friday Night. Areas of rain will likely occur around Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Thursday into Friday with the possibility for a few thunderstorms on Thursday.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Turning cooler and less humid. Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday... Less humid. Partly cloudy. High 73 to 78. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph becoming southeast late.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers developing. Low 53 to 58. Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

.Thursday... Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers. High 60 to 65. Chance of rain 60%.

.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 47 to 52. Chance of rain 40%.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 58 to 63. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday Night... Becoming partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.

.Saturday... Mostly sunny. High 65 to 70.

Normal High Temperature Today 70 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 50 degrees

Tim

Monday, August 30, 2010

8/30/10: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:32 PM CDT, Monday, August 30th, 2010

Weather Tibits:

*Today marks the 4th day in a row with a maximum temperature of at least 80 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

*Today's high temperature of at least 80 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota marks the 14th day this month with a high temperature at or above 80 degrees.

*Since June 1st, 2010 there's been measurable rain (trace or greater) on 52 of those days in Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather History:

On this date in 2009... A record low temperature of 38 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A very humid and warm day with dewpoints in the middle 60s to lower 70s with PWS of 1.40-1.70"! High temperatures Today were in the middle 80s to lower 90s which is way above average for late August by some 10-20 degrees! There were some showers over portions of Northeast/Eastcentral Minnesota and far Northwest Wisconsin earlier Today, but that activity diminished by the Afternoon leaving behind a partly-mostly cloudy sky across our area along with gusty south winds of 10-25 mph. Surface map late This Afternoon has a stationary front extending from Westcentral Ontario Province Canada through Northwest Minnesota to Eastern North Dakota to Central South Dakota with low pressure averaging 1002 mb centered over Northern South Dakota.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A very active weather pattern has evolved as we begin to close out the month of August. A strong upper level trough covered the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery with late Afternoon RUC model analysis showing an 80-90 knot upper level jet on the south/east side of this 500 mb trough. A vigorous disturbance was heading N-NE out of the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains late Today and it's this disturbance combined with the front along with ample instability, shear and moisture in place that will lead to a severe weather outbreak Tonight across portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A southwest flow aloft continued Today across our area out ahead of this trough with a plume of deep tropical moisture lifting north from Texas through the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery. A large upper level ridge continued to dominate areas to our south/east, while Hurricane Earl a category 4 storm with 135 mph winds heads away from the Virgin Islands This Afternoon with movement toward the west-northwest.

Tonight:

Low pressure will deepen to around 998 mb as it lifts N/NE out of Northern South Dakota. A stationary front near the Red River Valley (NW MN) will turn into a cold front during the night, but this boundary will remain to our west the entire night. Our immediate area will remain in the warm sector of this storm Tonight with a strong 850 mb jet out of the S-SW at 30-55 knots which will continue to pump warm and muggy air north into our area. Lows Tonight will only drop into the 60s and 70s once again with dewpoints in the 65-72 degree range while those south winds vary in speeds between 10-25 mph. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will cover our area Tonight with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing, first in far Northern-Western parts our area, then spreading into Eastern-Northeast Minnesota and far Northwest Wisconsin Overnight.

CAPES should remain around 1000-1500 j/kg Tonight across portions of our area with Lifted Indices of -2/-5 degrees C. SHEAR of around 30 knots combined with mid level winds increasing to 30-40 knots could lead to a few severe thunderstorms before 2 AM CDT, mainly west of a line from Ely to McGrath Minnesota, including the Counties of Northern-Western St. Louis, Koochiching, Itasca, Cass, Crow Wing and Aitkin. Damaging wind and possibly some large hail will be the main threats in our area with a risk for a couple tornadoes This Evening in Western Minnesota and the Eastern Dakotas. Locally heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning strikes will also occur with any thunderstorm Tonight.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Strong low pressure will deepen to around 990 mb as it heads N/NE through Eastern Manitoba Province/Western Hudson Bay Canada during this period while a cold front trailing southwest of the surface low moves through our local area Tomorrow and Tomorrow Evening before it exits to our south/east later Tomorrow Night.

At this time it appears that the greater threat for a few severe thunderstorms for Tuesday Afternoon/Evening would be over Northwest Wisconsin with a lesser risk in Northeastern-Eastern Minnesota. CAPES of 1000-2000 j/kg with Lifted Indices from -2/-6 degrees C are forecast to cover those above mentioned areas Tuesday Afternoon with dewpoints along and ahead of the front ranging from 68-75 degrees with PWS around 1.30-1.75". The low level jet on Tuesday looks much weaker compared to Tonight, however, thanks in part to the main surface low lifting into Central Canada and away from our area, but SHEAR of 30-40 knots will be in place along with 35-45 knot mid level winds and these factors could help to trigger a few severe storms with damaging wind and large hail being the main threats along with heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning.

Partly-mostly cloudy skies will cover Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with highs Tomorrow in the 70s and 80s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 50s to around 60 degrees. Southwest winds will turn westerly at 10-20 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

A temporary area of high pressure will move through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday before the next low pressure system and it's upper level trough and cold front dig into the Upper Midwest/Western Great Lakes region from Wednesday Night into early Friday. Instability and moisture with this next event looks skimpy, but the dynamics of this system combined with the colder temperatures moving in aloft Thursday Afternoon will lead to areas of rain and embedded thunderstorm activity across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Wednesday Night into Thursday Night. All in all it looks like a much cooler and less humid weather pattern from Wednesday into this Labor Day holiday weekend as a northwest flow develops by the end of the week. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Wednesday Night mainly in the 50s. Highs for Thursday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Thursday Night in the 40s and 50s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Unseasonably warm. Humid. Variable cloudiness. Scattered showers or thunderstorms possible after Midnight. Low 68 to 73. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Tuesday... Muggy. Scattered showers or thunderstorms. Variable cloudiness. High 78 to 83. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Tuesday Night... Turning cooler and less humid. Showers or thunderstorms possible early. Becoming partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Wind becoming west at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Wednesday... Cooler and less humid. Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75.

.Wednesday Night... Becoming mostly cloudy. Showers possible late. Low 50 to 55. Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday... Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers. High 65 to 70. Chance of rain 50%.

.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 47 to 52. Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 60 to 65.

Normal High Temperature Today 70 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 50 degrees

Tim

Sunday, August 29, 2010

8/29/10: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:47 PM CDT, Sunday, August 29th, 2010

Weather Tidbits:

*4 consecutive days (8/25-8/28) and counting with no rain at Duluth, Minnesota. The last time we put together 4 days in a row without any rain was back on July 6th-9th!

*693 severe weather reports in Minnesota so far this year with 123 tornado reports! Source: Paul Douglas, St. Cloud times.

Weather History:

On this date last year the high temperature was just 56 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Warm weather continued Today with high temperatures mainly in the 80s which is 10-20 degrees above normal for late August, however, an onshore wind developed This Afternoon around the head of Lake Superior which caused temperatures to fall back into the 60s and 70s This Afternoon. Dewpoints were still rather low Today with readings in the mid 50s to lower 60s, but a muggier airmass consisting of dewpoints in the 65-68 degree range were beginning to advect north/west from Southern-Central Wisconsin late Today. Late Afternoon PWS ranged from 0.80-1.10" in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed This Afternoon in extreme Northern Minnesota, generally affecting the cities of Big Falls, Manitou, Littlefork and International Falls in Koochiching County, some brief heavy downpours and occasional lightning strikes have been occurring with this activity as it heads northeast into Southern Ontario Province. These showers have been forming in a slightly unstable environment with CAPES around 500 j/kg with Lifted Indicies around zero degrees C. Surface map early This Afternoon featured a stationary front extending from Central South Dakota to Eastcentral North Dakota to Southcentral Ontario Province with low pressure averaging 1000 mb centered in Central South Dakota.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A broad upper level trough covered the Western U.S. Today per RUC model analysis with a 100 knot upper level jet in place on the east side of this trough from Central Montana to Southern Saskatchewan Province. A southwest 500 mb flow covered the Upper Midwest Today while a large upper level ridge (5940 meters) was in place from the Central-Southern Great Lakes, through the Central/Southern Plains, Ohio Valley and Eastern U.S.

Tonight:

Another strong southwesterly low level jet of 30-55 knots will be in place across Minnesota Today out ahead of a stationary front which will remain well to our west/north Tonight. Deeper moisture will advect north into our area during the night with dewpoints climbing into the 60s while PWS rise to between 1.00-1.50" Overnight. The combination of the strong LLJ and moisture transport combined with a weak upper level disturbance lifting into the Upper Midwest could be enough to trigger isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms Tonight across Northern/Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. No severe weather is expected though due to marginal instability, but some brief heavy downpours and occasional lightning strikes may accompany some of this activity during the night. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with lows in the 60s and lower 70s which is 10-20 degrees above average for the end of August. Winds Tonight will be out of the south at 10-20 mph with a few higher gusts.

Monday and Monday Night:

A very warm and muggy airmass will be found in our local area during this period with dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s with PWS of 1.50-2.00"! High temperatures on Monday will be mainly in the 80s to around 90 degrees with lows Monday Night in the 60s and 70s! A stationary front will be centered to our west/north on Monday, this boundary will then begin to shift east as a cold front Monday Night, but will likely remain west of our immediate area. Low pressure will also begin to deepen from 1000 mb late Today to around 995 mb by late Monday Night as it lifts northeast from Central South Dakota. The atmosphere will become more unstable along and ahead of this boundary Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with CAPES from 1000-1500 j/kg with Lifted Indices of zero/-4 degrees C. A southwest low level jet of 30-55 knots will persist across our area during this period along with around 30-35 knots of SHEAR while mid level winds increase to 30-40 knots in Northcentral Minnesota with a 90 knot upper level jet moving into the Northern Plains.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop Monday Evening and continue through the Overnight hours along and west of a line from Grand Marais Minnesota to Shell Lake Wisconsin. A few of the thunderstorms could become severe Monday Evening, mainly in Western parts of our area...including the Counties of Crow Wing, Cass, Itasca and Koochiching. Damaging wind and large hail will be the main threats from severe storms, along with heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning in any non-severe thunderstorm.

A few showers or thunderstorms could also occur on Monday, mainly in Northern-Northeastern Minnesota.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure deepens to between 987-993 mb during the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame as it lifts northeast into Western Hudson Bay Canada. A cold front attached to that low will continue to move east and will pass through Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tuesday and Tuesday Evening. A very muggy and unstable airmass will continue on Tuesday along and ahead of this front with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s along with PWS from 1.50-2.00" while CAPES range from 1000-2000 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -2/-5 degrees C. The greatest instability is forecast to set-up across Northwestern Wisconsin the way it looks now, and this area will have the best chance at seeing a few severe thunderstorms Tuesday Afternoon and Evening with a lesser threat across Northeast-Eastcentral Minnesota the way it looks now due to an earlier frontal passage. Damaging wind and large hail will be the main severe threats once again on Tuesday. The threat for precipitation will end Tuesday Night with mainly dry conditions expected for Wednesday as high pressure passes through the Upper Midwest in wake of Tuesday's cold front. High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s on Tuesday with mainly 70s expected for Wednesday along with much lower humidity. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s with mainly 50s for Wednesday Night.

The forecast models continue to be at odds as to what will happen around the Upper Midwest from mid to late week and perhaps through next weekend. Models have been exhibiting little consistency for this time period with rather large swings noted from one model run to the next.

One potential outcome will be for a complex low pressure system with one center to our south and another to our northwest phasing together as they reach the Great Lakes later this week while an upper level low/upper trough intensifies over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes which would result in a cool and rather wet period from Wednesday Night through at least Friday.

Another possible outcome would be for a cold front to pass through the Upper Midwest with possible rain mainly Wednesday Night through about midday Thursday before things dry out.

One thing that may be giving the long range models problems is Hurricane Earl and it's forecasted track toward the far Western Atlantic, possibly even affecting portions of the far Eastern U.S. late this week, the farther west this hurricane tracks would likely cause weather systems to slow down across the Plains and Upper Midwest from mid to late week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Mild. Scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms possible mainly late. Low 62 to 67. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday... Humid. Partly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible early. Warm and breezy. High 82 to 87. Wind south at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday Night... Humid and warm. Becoming mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible after Midnight. Low 65 to 70. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday... Humid. Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 78 to 83. Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60.

.Wednesday... Less humid. Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Thursday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 65 to 70. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 70 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 50 degrees

Tim

Friday, August 27, 2010

8/27/10: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:37 PM CDT, Friday, August 27th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 1984... A record high temperature of 92 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

On this date in 1986... A record low temperature of 32 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Mainly sunny skies with mild temperatures and comfortable humidity continued across the area Today with highs generally in the lower to middle 80s, but cooler 60s and 70s did prevail from Superior and Downtown Duluth up along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Dewpoints This Afternoon were in the upper 50s to lower 60s with PWS around 0.80". Winds Today were out of the south at 10-20 mph with higher gusts away from Lake Superior. Surface map late Today featured an area of high pressure of 1020 mb over Eastern Illinois with low pressure of 998 mb covering the Central Dakotas. A weak surface trough extended from Northwest Wisconsin toward the Western Shores of Lake Michigan.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

The 500 mb flow has shifted to the west Today per water vapor satellite imagery. An upper level trough covered the Pacific Northwest-Northern Rockies with a southwest flow aloft developing across the Northern Plains and Rockies out ahead of this H5 trough. A core of very hot temperatures was found across portions of the Western-Central Dakotas through the Western High Plains Today with temperatures of 90-105 degrees with 850 mb temperatures of +26/+34 degrees C!

Tonight through Saturday Night:

High pressure to our southeast and low pressure well to our west will keep a southerly flow going over the Upper Midwest with more mild temperatures expected during this period. Lows Tonight and Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s and lower 60s with highs Tomorrow generally in the 80s. Dewpoints during this period should remain in the 50s to lower 60s. Mostly clear skies are forecast through Tomorrow Night with southerly winds at 10-20 mph with higher gusts thanks to a persistent SW 850 mb jet which will vary in speeds from 35-55 knots from Tonight through Tomorrow Night.

Extended Forecast:

A stationary front will be centered well to our west-north for Sunday and Sunday Night while an upper level disturbance lifts N/NE out of Illinois. Looks mainly dry across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Sunday with highs generally in the 80s with dewpoints in the 50s and 60s. A muggier airmass will creep north into our area from Sunday Night through early next week as dewpoints climb into the 60s to lower 70s while PWS increase to between 1.50-2.00"! A few showers or thunderstorms could develop Sunday Night, mainly in far Northern Minnesota, otherwise it should remain dry with lows mainly in the 60s. A cold front will start to shift south-east into Minnesota Monday and will move through the state on Tuesday the way it looks now. Scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible near this boundary early next week with at least an isolated severe weather and or heavy rainfall risk developing for portions of our local area. High temps on Monday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Monday Night mainly in the 60s.

The forecast models continue to be at odds for the middle of next week with the latest GFS, NAVY and EUROPEAN models hinting at a dry Wednesday-Thursday around here, while the GEM-GLOBAL model brings a low pressure system toward the Great Lakes with a swath of rain spreading north into parts of our area sometime late Wednesday or on Thursday. Note: The GFS and EUROPEAN models have both trended drier per last few model runs which is a change from prior runs that showed some rain reaching parts of our area Wednesday Evening, then ending during the day Thursday.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 55 to 60. Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday... Sunny and breezy. High 80 to 85. Wind southwest to south at 15 to 25 mph.

.Saturday Night... Clear. Low 58 to 63. Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Mostly sunny. High 80 to 85.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 60 to 65.

.Monday... Humid. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly sunny. High 80 to 85. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday Night... Humid. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 63 to 68. Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday... Humid. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. High 75 to 80. Chance of rain 30%.

Normal High Temperature Today 71 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 51 degrees

Tim

Thursday, August 26, 2010

8/26/10: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:39 PM CDT, Thursday, August 26th, 2010

A hint of Autumn in the air earlier Today in parts of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Here are some low temperatures from Today. Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Hibbing MN: 39 degrees

International Falls MN: 40 degrees

Silver Bay MN: 37 degrees

Grand Marais MN: 36 degrees

Cook MN: 39 degrees

Hayward WI: 40 degrees

2 miles South of Tower MN: 38 degrees

Embarrass MN: 36 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: 39 degrees

Weather Headlines:

*Tranquil weather to hold through the weekend

*Changes ahead for next week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A great late Summer day (very typical for late August) across our area with plenty of sunshine, comfortable humidity with Afternoon dewpoints generally in the 50s along with southerly winds around 20 mph or less, although a light east wind has developed This Afternoon at the Duluth Harbor. Highs Today were generally in the 70s, except upper 60s at the Duluth Harbor.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500 mb flow continued across the Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery. An upper level ridge (5940 meters) covered the Southwest half of the U.S. with lots of very warm temperatures with 90s and even some low 100s Today from Montana through parts of the Dakotas, down through the Western High Plains and Rockies while 850 mb temperatures ranged from +20/+32 degrees C across those areas. The Northern Rockies will see a huge drop in temperatures by this weekend as a baroclinic zone starts to tighthen up (a sure sign of fall).

Tonight through Friday Night:

An area of high pressure will remain centered to our southeast during this period while a weak warm front lifts N-NE through Minnesota into Friday, then a frontal boundary will stall out well to our west-north by Tomorrow Night. Mostly clear skies are forecast from Tonight through Friday Night with lows in the 40s and 50s Tonight and the 50s to near 60 degrees Friday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s and 80s. Patchy fog could develop late Tonight and early Tomorrow Morning, mainly in low lying areas and near rivers. Humidity levels will remain comfortable through Tomorrow Night with dewpoints generally in the 50s across our area. Winds will be out of the south at 5-15 mph Tonight, increasing to 10-20 mph Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with gusts to 30 mph during the day Friday thanks to a southwest low level jet which will increase to between 30-55 knots Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night per latest model guidance.

Note: Winds Tomorrow may have an easterly component to them around the head of Lake Superior, if this happens then high temps would likely hold in the 60s in Superior and Downtown Duluth.

Extended Forecast:

An upper level trough currently over British Columbia and the Northeast Pacific will move into the Western U.S. through the weekend before heading into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest late this weekend and early next week. A tight temperature gradient will develop from Saturday through Monday with some places in Montana holding in the 40s with even some possible snow at times in the Mountains while widespread 80+ degree high temperatures occur in the warm sector across the Upper Midwest and Central Plains. A stationary front representing this temperature contrast will remain to our west-north through Sunday before it shifts south/east during the early to middle portion of next week the way it looks now.

Strong southerly winds will continue across the Upper Midwest this weekend with a gradual increase in moisture with 60+ degree dewpoints expected by Sunday and early next week. Instability will also begin to come up by early next week, and this combined with the approaching front should result in scattered showers/thunderstorms around our area from Monday into Tuesday, but far Northern-Northwest parts of our area could see some activity as soon as Sunday or Sunday Night.

High temperatures in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will be in the 70s and 80s Saturday and Sunday with lows in the 50s and 60s both nights.

By the middle of next week the forecast models are at odds as to whether or not an upper level low/trough develops around the Upper Midwest and tracks toward the Great Lakes with a threat of rain/possible thunder, or if dry weather will occur for next Wednesday/Thursday. The models should start to converge on a solution in coming days.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible late. Low 50 to 55. Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday... Patchy fog possible early. Mostly sunny. High 75 to 80 but cooler closer to Lake Superior. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 55 to 60. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday... Mostly sunny. High 80 to 85.

.Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 58 to 63.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 80 to 85.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 60 to 65.

.Monday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly sunny. High 80 to 85. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 72 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 52 degrees

Tim

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

8/25/10: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:19 PM CDT, Wednesday, August 25th, 2010

Updated information about the tornado outbreak that hit Minnesota on June 17th, 2010. Source: National Weather Service Chanhassen, Minnesota.

*Number of confirmed tornadoes from 6/17/10: 27, but the final count will likely top 40. As it stands now, June 17th, 2010 will go down as the biggest tornado outbreak to ever hit Minnesota. The previous record of 27 tornadoes occurred on June 16th, 1992.

*Three EF-4 tornadoes occurred in Minnesota on June 17th, 2010. This was the first EF-4 tornado across the state since the Granite Falls EF-4 back on July 25th, 2000.

*June 17th, 2010 had the greatest number of tornadoes (EF4 or greater) in one day in Minnesota since the Black Sunday outbreak on April 30th, 1967.

*Four EF-4 tornadoes across the Upper Midwest on June 17th, 2010 (3 in Minnesota) (1 in North Dakota) makes it the most of any outbreak in the U.S. since the "Super Tuesday Outbreak" which occurred on February 5th-6th, 2008.

*Number of tornado fatalities from June 17th, 2010 was 4, making it the highest in Minnesota since July 5th, 1978.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure averaging 1025 mb was centered over the Eastern Dakotas-Western Minnesota This Afternoon. Cool temperatures with partly cloudy-mostly sunny skies covered our local area Today with highs in the middle 60s to lower 70s. Dewpoints Today were generally in the 40s with PWS of just one half inch! Winds Today were out of the northwest around 20 mph or less.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Vigorous 500 mb trough (5640 meters) was starting to exit off to the east of the Upper Midwest late Today per water vapor satellite imagery with a northwest flow aloft covering our area. An upper level ridge of high pressure (5940 meters) covered much of the Central-Southern Rockies Today per RUC model analysis.

Tonight through Thursday Night:

Dry high pressure will be right over the Upper Midwest Tonight before it begins to push off to our southeast Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night. Mostly clear skies with lows in the 40 and lower 50s will occur Tonight with some 30s possible in the typical cold spots. Highs Tomorrow will be mainly in the 70s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 40s and 50s. Northwest winds Tonight will decrease to under 15 mph. Winds will become south/southwest Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Southerly winds will increase across our area from Friday through next Monday as a frontal boundary stalls out to our west-north with an upper level trough covering the Western U.S. and an upper level ridge off to our southeast. Above normal temperatures with highs in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 50s to lower 60s are expected in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Friday and Saturday. It appears that dewpoints will remain fairly low into Saturday with mainly 50s and perhaps a few lower 60s around our area, a muggier airmass is then forecast to move north into the Upper Midwest toward Sunday and early next week when a cold front begins to settle slowly southeast out of the Northern Plains. This boundary combined with the increasing amounts of moisture and some instability should give way to some showers/thunderstorms around the area, perhaps as early as Sunday in Northern Minnesota, but more likely for early next week throughout Northern Minnesota-Northwest Wisconsin.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 45 to 50. Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Mostly sunny. High 70 to 75. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 50 to 55. Wind south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday... Mostly sunny. High 75 to 80.

.Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 55 to 60.

.Saturday... Mostly sunny. High 80 to 85.

.Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 58 to 63.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 80 to 85.

Normal High Temperature Today 72 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 52 degrees

Tim

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

8/24/10: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:07 PM CDT, Tuesday, August 24th, 2010

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota: Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

*Average Monthly Temperature through August 23rd: 67.8 degrees
Departure: 3.2 degrees Above Normal.

*Rainfall total through August 23rd: 6.11"
Departure: 3.08" Above Normal.

*August 2010 has produced 10 days (so far) with a maximum temperature of at least 80 degrees.

Rainfall report for Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from earlier Today, Tuesday, August 24th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: 0.11"

International Falls MN: 0.43"

Brainerd MN: 0.50"

Hibbing MN: 0.81"

Cass Lake MN: 0.36"

Cook MN: 0.49"

Kabetogama MN: 0.57"

Northome MN: 0.32"

2 miles South of Tower MN: 0.56"

Littlefork MN: 0.40"

Dixon Lake MN: 0.35"

Floodwood MN: 0.42"

3 miles East of Orr MN: 0.55"

Hinckley MN: 0.31"

3 miles South of Ashland WI: 0.11"

Gordon WI: 0.16"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Monday Night's cold front has moved into the Central Great Lakes This Afternoon with a secondary surface trough heading southeast out of Northeast North Dakota/Southeast Manitoba Province. Deep low pressure averaging 992 was in Northwestern Ontario Province This Afternoon while high pressure averaging 1026 mb was centered in Western Nebraska. The pressure difference between the low to our north and high to our southwest resulted in strong westerly winds across our area Today. Wind speeds of 15-25 mph were common with gusts up to 35 mph! Mostly cloudy skies prevailed in Northern Minnesota Today with more sunshine found from Eastern Minnesota into Northwestern Wisconsin. High temperatures Today were running around 20 degrees cooler compared to Monday with 60s and 70s covering the area Today. Much drier air has also moved into Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s with late day PWS of 0.60-0.80".

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A strong upper level trough was passing through the Northern Plains Today with a 60-80 knot mid level jet and a 90-110 knot upper level jet in place ahead of this H5 trough from the Upper Midwest to Central Ontario Province per RUC model analysis. Impressive 12 hour 500 mb height falls of 60-90 meters covered the Upper Midwest/Western Great Lakes/Central areas of Canada Today ahead of this 500 mb trough.

Note: 12 hour 500 mb height changes from 7 AM CDT Monday to 7 AM CDT Today.

Fargo North Dakota: 5880 meters/5750 meters
Bismarck North Dakota: 5840 meters/5710 meters
Minneapolis Minnesota: 5920 meters/5830 meters
Western Ontario Province: 5860 meters/5680 meters
Central Manitoba Province: 5700 meters/5520 meters

Tonight:

Cold advection will continue in our local area with 850 mb temperatures dropping from +7/+11 degrees late This Afternoon to around +6 degrees C later in the night. A trough will settle southeast and through our area This Evening with a spotty shower or two possible along this boundary, otherwise partly-mostly cloudy skies will occur Tonight with patchy drizzle possible Overnight, mainly in Northern Minnesota. Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with west winds from 15-30 mph, decreasing to 10-20 mph late.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

High pressure will move into the Upper Midwest/Central Plains during this period with cool temperatures, low humidity and a partly cloudy sky on Wednesday with mostly clear skies Wednesday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s to lower 70s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 40s, but some 30s are expected in the typical cold spots. Northwest winds around 20 mph or less are forecast Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night.

Extended Forecast:

High pressure will push off to our southeast on Thursday with high pressure remaining well to our south/east from Friday into early next week. The 500 mb flow will transition to the southwest from late this week into at least early next week as a surface boundary stalls out from the Northern Plains toward Southern Ontario Province/far Northern Minnesota with an upper level trough covering the Western U.S. This type of weather pattern is usually a warm one for the Upper Midwest and that looks to be the case this go around. Strengthening south winds will overspread our area later this week and persist into the weekend, expect a gradual increase in moisture with 60+ degree dewpoints returning by the weekend into early next week. High temperatures will be mainly in the 70s on Thursday with 70s and 80s for Friday. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s Thursday Night and mainly 50s Friday Night.

Looks dry across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Thursday and Friday. Scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible this weekend, mainly in Northern Minnesota, but it's possible that most of the precipitation will stay off to our west-northwest through Sunday. Chances for showers/thunderstorms should spread farther south/east early next week the way it looks now.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Breezy. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 48 to 53. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph especially This Evening.

.Wednesday... Mostly sunny. High 66 to 71. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 45 to 50. Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Mostly sunny. High 70 to 75.

.Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 50 to 55.

.Friday... Mostly sunny. High 73 to 78.

.Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 55 to 60.

.Saturday... Mostly sunny. High 80 to 85.

Normal High Temperature Today 72 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 52 degrees

Tim

Monday, August 23, 2010

8/23/10: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:13 PM CDT, Monday, August 23rd, 2010

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A well defined cold front was marching east through the Dakotas and was entering the extreme Western part of Minnesota as of mid-Afternoon. Very warm, humid and windy conditions were found ahead of this boundary Today with much cooler, breezy and less humid conditions in wake of the frontal passage. High temperatures were in the middle 80s to lower 90s in our local area Today with cooler 60s and 70s from Superior and Downtown Duluth and along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Dewpoints Today were generally in the 60s to around 70 degrees. Winds Today were out of the south at 10-25 mph with occasional higher gusts. Very strong winds occurred for a time earlier This Afternoon in Northwestern Minnesota with wind gusts >40 mph! An area of showers were found near the cold front This Afternoon from Northwest Minnesota back through the Eastern Dakotas with movement toward the north/east, strong to severe thunderstorms have been erupting Today across parts of Southern-Eastern Manitoba Province Canada, near the better dynamics of this system.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

An upper level trough covered the Northeast U.S. per water vapor satellite imagery with an upper level ridge in place from the Great Lakes through the Mid-Mississippi Valley/Southern Plains region. A vigorous upper level trough with 60-90 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls was moving east across the Northern Plains This Afternoon with a southwest flow aloft in place over the Upper Midwest out ahead of this H5 trough.

Tonight:

A cold front will continue to move east and is forecast to pass through Northern/Eastern Minnesota between 8 PM-1 AM, and will move through Northwest Wisconsin Overnight. Weak instability consisting of CAPES around 100 j/kg and Lifted Indices around zero degrees C combined with a layer of warm air aloft (H7 temps around +12 degrees C) should result in only isolated thunderstorm development around our area Tonight as this cold front moves through. There is quite a bit of upper level support, however, with this system with a mid level jet >70 knots across the Northern Plains This Afternoon along with an upper level jet >100 knots which will spread toward the Red River Valley of Minnesota during the night. Lift associated with the cold front and also on the east side of these wind maxes should cause a rather large, but fairly quick moving area of rain showers across most of our area Tonight with precipitation lifting northeast as it spreads east with the front. Rainfall totals should generally remain under one quarter inch Tonight, but a few heavier showers could drop around one half inch of rain by dawn. Lows Tonight under partly-mostly cloudy skies will be in the 50s and 60s with winds out of the south, turning southwest to west at 10-20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Drier and cooler air will advect south/east across our area during this period as deep low pressure around 993 mb centers itself well to our northwest while the cold front exits off to our east early Tuesday Morning. 850 mb temperatures which were around +20 degrees C in our area This Afternoon will drop to between +8/+12 degrees C on Tuesday. High temperatures Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with much lower humidity levels as well. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s and 50s. Southwest or west winds will be quite breezy with wind speeds of 15-30 mph on Tuesday, decreasing to 10-20 mph Tuesday Night.

Extended Forecast:

A relatively quiet weather pattern (more typical for late August) is forecast from mid to late week as high pressure drops southeast through the Northern/Central Plains around mid-week, this high will shift off to our southeast late this week with increasing southerly winds overspreading Minnesota from Friday into the weekend. A warm-up and a gradual increase in moisture will occur over the Upper Midwest from Friday onward as the 500 mb pattern transitions from a northwest flow at mid-week to a southwest flow by this weekend and early next week.

The latest model guidance indicates that a cold front will become stationary, generally in a west-east-northeast fashion from the Northern Plains toward Northern Minnesota or Southern Canada from this weekend into early next week. This boundary combined with the increase in moisture and instability should cause scattered showers/thunderstorms at times, especially by Sunday or Monday the way it looks now. This boundary is expected to settle southeast as a cold front sometime the early to middle part of next week with shower/thunderstorm chances continuing until about Wednesday or until this boundary clears our area.

High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s Wednesday and Thursday with lows in the 40s and 50s both nights, but some 30s are possible Wednesday Night in the typical cold spots.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy with occasional showers developing between 10 PM-Midnight. Isolated thunderstorms also possible. Low 60 to 65. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph, becoming west at 10 to 20 mph late. Chance of rain 70%.

.Tuesday... Breezy, cooler and less humid. Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75. Wind west at 15 to 30 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 48 to 53. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday... Mostly sunny. High 68 to 73.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 45 to 50.

.Thursday... Mostly sunny. High 70 to 75.

.Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 50 to 55.

.Friday... Mostly sunny. High 73 to 78.

Normal High Temperature Today 73 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 52 degrees

Tim

Saturday, August 21, 2010

8/21/10: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:48 PM CDT, Saturday, August 21st, 2010

So far the Summer of 2010 has been very wet across most of the Northland...Here are some rainfall totals and the departure from normal during the period from May 22nd through August 20th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Winter WI (Sawyer County) 23.70"/10.50" Above Normal
Duluth MN (St. Louis County) 18.30"/6.08" Above Normal
Gordon WI (Douglas County) 18.59"/5.93" Above Normal
International Falls MN (Koochiching County) 16.16"/5.79" Above Normal
Federal Dam MN (Cass County) 13.99"/2.16" Above Normal
Tower MN (St. Louis County) 13.33"/0.48" Above Normal
Grand Portage MN (Cook County) 7.18"/2.42" Below Normal

Rainfall report from Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Date: Friday, August 20th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: 0.41"

Grand Marais MN: 0.57"

Ashland WI: 0.43"

Hayward WI: 0.51"

Weather History:

On this date in 2004... A record low temperature of 37 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Widespread low clouds and dense fog took a while to burn off, but once it did skies became partly-mostly sunny during the Afternoon. High temperatures were in the 70s to lower 80s, except 60s close to Lake Superior Today with dewpoints generally in the 60s along with east or north winds under 15 mph. An area of high pressure was centered over Central Minnesota early This Evening, this high combined with a building upper level ridge into the Upper Midwest capped off the atmosphere even with some instability around parts of our area This Afternoon.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

W-NW 500 mb flow covered the Upper Midwest early This Evening with an upper level trough developing west of the Rockies per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight through Sunday Night:

High pressure will remain in control of our weather during this period as it sits over the Upper Midwest/Western-Central Great Lakes region. Mostly clear-partly cloudy skies will be found across the area with the possibility of some late night and early Morning fog. Lows Tonight and Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s and 60s with highs Tomorrow in the 70s and 80s, except somewhat cooler close to Lake Superior. Winds will be out of the south or east under 15 mph through this period.

Extended Forecast:

A vigorous area of low pressure will pass by well to our northwest-north early next week. A cold front attached to this low will move across our local area during the Monday Evening/early Tuesday time frame. Dewpoints in the 60s, PWS increasing to between 1.50-2.00" will develop along and ahead of this boundary on Monday, that combined with some weak instability with CAPES <1000 j/kg and Lifted Indicies around zero/-2 degrees C will lead to some showers or thunderstorms in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from late Monday Afternoon into early Tuesday. High temperatures on Monday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Monday Night in the 50s and 60s. A strong SW 850 mb jet of 30-45 knots will also be in place on Monday out ahead of this cold front which could result in some gusty S-SW winds around our area at that time, sustained wind speeds of 15-25 mph will likely occur with some higher gusts possible. The cold front will be passing well of to our east on Tuesday with less humid and cooler conditions moving into the area. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s on Tuesday with lows in the 40s and 50s.

The middle of next week should remain tranquil as high pressure remains in control of Minnesota's weather. A change in the pattern is expected to take place late next week through next weekend and possibly into early the following week as an upper level trough develops over the Western U.S. putting the Upper Midwest in a southwest flow aloft and susceptible to seeing some rounds of showers/thunderstorms and possibly some heavy rainfall and or severe weather especially by next weekend or early the following week the way it looks now.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Areas of fog developing. Low 53 to 58. Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Sunday... Areas of fog early, otherwise mostly sunny. High 76 to 81 but cooler closer to Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 58 to 63. Wind southeast to south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 80 to 85.

.Monday Night... Showers or thunderstorms developing. Mostly cloudy. Low 60 to 65. Chance of rain 60%.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. High 70 to 75.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 48 to 53.

.Wednesday... Mostly sunny. High 68 to 73.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 73 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 53 degrees

Tim

Friday, August 20, 2010

8/20/10: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:50 PM CDT, Friday, August 20th, 2010

Note: Heavy rainfall and isolated severe weather affected portions of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin late last night/This Morning as a bow echo and large complex of rain/thunderstorms moved quickly toward the northeast.

Local Storm Report from Friday, August 20th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

*2:56 AM CDT 8/20/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. McGrath MN (Aitkin County) Some trees down.

*7:24 AM CDT 8/20/10: 1.25" diameter hail. Kennan WI (Price County)

*8:00 AM CDT 8/20/10: Heavy rain, 2.26". Cass Lake MN (Cass County)

*8:00 AM CDT 8/20/10: Heavy rain, 1.65". Floodwood MN (St. Louis County)

*9:30 AM CDT 8/20/10: Heavy rain, 2.29". Phillips WI (Price County)

*10:00 AM CDT 8/20/10: 0.88" diameter hail. Mercer WI (Iron County)

*10:05 AM CDT 8/20/10: 1.00" diameter hail. Mercer WI (Iron County) Trees down and power outages as well.

*11:00 AM CDT 8/20/10: Heavy rain, 0.92". Duluth MN-National Weather Service (St. Louis County)

*11:00 AM CDT 8/20/10: Heavy rain, 1.90". Two Harbors MN (Lake County)

Rainfall report from Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Date: Thursday/Friday, August 19th and 20th, 2010. Note: Rainfall totals through around 7 AM CDT This Morning.

Duluth MN: 0.52"

Brainerd MN: 0.64"

Grand Marais MN: 0.34"

Hibbing MN: 0.81"

Ashland WI: 0.33"

Hayward WI: 0.51"

Cook MN: 0.35"

Northome MN: 0.32"

8 miles South of Bigfork MN: 0.63"

2 miles South of Tower MN: 0.56"

4 miles East of Island Lake MN: 1.02"

Silver Bay MN: 0.66"

Bruno MN: 0.67"

12 miles North of Isle MN: 1.44"

9 miles North of Bayfield WI: 0.42"

Solon Springs WI: 0.60"

Winter WI: 0.97"

Webster WI: 0.74"

Upson WI: 0.35"

Sarona WI: 0.98"

30 Day Outlook for September 2010. Issued by the Climate Prediction Center on Thursday, August 19th, 2010.

For Duluth:

Equal Chances for Above Normal, Normal or Below Normal Temperatures.
Equal Chances for Above Normal, Normal or Below Normal Precipitation.

90 Day Outlook for September through November 2010. Issued by the Climate Prediction Center on Thursday, August 19th, 2010.

For Duluth:

40% Chance for Above Normal Temperatures.
Equal Chances for Above Normal, Normal or Below Normal Precipitation.

Weather History:

On this date in 2004... A record low temperature of 36 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A warm front as of 3 PM was centered along a line from near Brainerd Minnesota to Wausau Wisconsin with a cold front across Western Minnesota and an area of low pressure averaging 1002 mb in Western Minnesota. A wide variety of weather was occurring Today depending on what side of the warm front you were on. Temperatures This Afternoon have warmed into the 80s from Pine River to Hinckley Minnesota and points southwest from there with dewpoints in the 65-75 degree range! Widespread 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s were found across Northwest Wisconsin. North of the warm front, temperatures were stuck in the 60s and lower 70s Today with even cooler temperatures in the 50s at the head of Lake Superior. Some sunshine has broken out at times Today, especially in Western-Southwest parts of our area, elsewhere skies were mostly cloudy Today. Areas of fog were common near Lake Superior due to the east wind and high amounts of moisture in place. The complex of rain/thunderstorms which moved across our area early Today moved out This Morning leaving behind mainly dry conditions by This Afternoon. Winds Today were out of the south or east around 15 mph or less.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Westerly flow aloft was in place over the Upper Midwest Today per RUC model analysis. A rather potent shortwave trough was moving across the region Today per water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight:

An area of low pressure which was over Western Minnesota This Afternoon will move east This Evening while the warm front which was lined up from Central Minnesota to Central Wisconsin sinks south during the night in response to the surface low heading east through the Upper Midwest. Latest meso-analysis shows quite a bit of instability has built up late This Afternoon over all but Northeast areas of Minnesota. CAPES ranged from 1000-2500 j/kg with Lifted Indices anywhere from -3/-8 degrees C with Lapse Rates around 6.5 c/km. There is also some fairly decent convergence and moisture convergence near this system from Central Minnesota east through Northwestern Wisconsin, but thus far all the action has been from Southern through Northeastern Wisconsin This Afternoon. There is still a possibility that we could see a few showers or thunderstorms develop before Midnight Tonight mainly in Northwest Wisconsin into Eastcentral Minnesota. If thunderstorms can develop, they could turn severe thanks to enough shear in place (Around 30 knots) The winds in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere have decreased significantly Today, and this would result in a fairly slow movement of any storm which increases the threat for locally heavy rainfall thanks to the high amounts of moisture in the atmosphere, dewpoints in the 60s and 70s, PWS around 1.50" with 850 mb td's >12 degrees C. The greatest potential for some additional rain This Evening would be along and south of a line from Leader to Duluth Minnesota, including all of Northwest Wisconsin. The threat for showers/thunderstorms will end by Midnight with partly-mostly cloudy skies through the night along with areas of fog which could become dense, especially around Lake Superior. Lows Tonight will be in the 50s to lower 60s with winds becoming north or east under 15 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

High pressure will build into our area from the northwest during this period, areas of fog should burn off before 9 AM Tomorrow, otherwise look for partly-mostly sunny skies on Saturday with highs in the 70s and 80s. Clear-partly cloudy skies with lows in the 50s to lower 60s can be expected Saturday Night. Winds during this period will be out of the north, northeast or northwest under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

An upper level ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather for Sunday and Sunday Night with high temperatures in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 50s and 60s. A cold front is set to move across our area from west to east by Monday Night/Tuesday Morning, enough moisture and instability should be in place near this front to cause some showers or thunderstorms from Monday Evening through early Tuesday. Highs on Monday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Monday Night in the 50s and 60s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Areas of fog which could be dense at times. Mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible before 10 PM. Low 53 to 58. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday... Areas of fog early, otherwise partly to mostly sunny. High 75 to 80 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 55 to 60. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 77 to 82 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 58 to 63.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 78 to 83.

.Monday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 60 to 65. Chance of rain 40%.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. High 70 to 75.

Normal High Temperature Today 73 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 53 degrees

Tim

Thursday, August 19, 2010

8/19/10: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:37 PM CDT, Thursday, August 19th, 2010

...All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota...

*FLOOD WATCH*

A Flood Watch has been issued for portions of Northeast and Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Timing: Midnight CDT Tonight through Friday Evening.

Counties affected:

Cook MN...Lake MN...Central and Southern St. Louis MN...Aitkin MN...Carlton MN...Pine MN...Douglas WI...Bayfield WI...Burnett WI...Washburn WI...and Sawyer WI...

Some cities included in the watch:

Grand Marais MN...Silver Bay MN...Isabella MN...Two Harbors MN...Hibbing MN...Cotton MN...Duluth MN...Floodwood MN...Hill City MN...Aitkin MN...McGregor MN...Cloquet MN...Moose Lake MN...Hinckley MN...Pine City MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Cable WI...Danbury WI...Siren WI...Minong WI...Spooner WI...Hayward WI...Loretta WI...and Exeland WI...

Recent heavy rainfall combined with additional chances for locally heavy rain beginning late Tonight and lasting into Friday Evening could cause flooding of small rivers...creeks and streams and area roads.

Local Storm Report from Wednesday, August 18th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

*8/18/10: Flash Flood. South Range WI (Douglas County) Douglas County Highway Patrol reports many county roads either washed out or with standing water on them.

*8/18/10: Heavy Rain. South Range WI (Douglas County) 3.75" rainfall total.

*8/18/10: Heavy Rain. 1 mile Southeast of Wentworth WI (Douglas County) 4.25" rainfall total.

Rainfall report from Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Date: Wednesday, August 18th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: 0.54"

Ashland WI: 0.80"

Hayward WI: 1.21"

Floodwood MN: 0.65"

4 miles South of Bruno MN: 0.50"

9 miles North of Bayfield WI: 0.42"

Gordon WI: 1.65"

Butternut WI: 0.95"

Upson WI: 0.68"

Gurney WI: 0.63"

Low temperature report from This Morning, Thursday, August 19th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

International Falls MN: 38 degrees

Grand Marais MN: 39 degrees

Ely MN: 39 degrees

Orr MN: 39 degrees

Weather Tidbits:

*Monthly rainfall total at Duluth, Minnesota thru August 18th, 2010: 5.23"
Normal thru the 18th: 2.38"
Departure from normal: +2.85"

*Rainfall total since June 1st, 2010: 13.43"
Normal: 10.83"
Departure from normal: +2.60"

*Precipitation total since January 1st, 2010: 22.58"
Normal: 19.51"
Departure from normal: +3.07"

Weather History:

On this date in 2004... A record low temperature of 37 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A stationary front was draped across Southern Minnesota Today with high pressure of 1016 mb centered over Northwestern Lake Superior. A wide range in temperatures/dewpoints were found on either side of this front Today. Our local area was on the cool side of this boundary Today with mostly sunny skies, dewpoints in the 40s and 50s with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s with 50s around the head of Lake Superior. Highs in the 80s were found across parts of Westcentral-Southern Minnesota Today with dewpoints up into the 60s and even some 70s! Winds across our area were out of the east Today at 10-20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A vigorous short wave trough was progressing east through the Northern-Central Rockies and into the Northern Plains This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery. Northwest flow aloft was beginning to ease a bit late Today over the Upper Midwest as Wednesday's system deepens as it moves into Eastern Canada while the flow aloft turns more W/SW over our area in response to the approaching system from the Rockies.

Tonight:

A stationary front over Southern Minnesota This Afternoon will turn into a warm front as it lifts slowly toward the N/NE during the night. A southerly low level jet nearing 25-35 knots combined with forcing near that warm frontal boundary and out ahead of the approaching disturbance from the W/SW will result in the blossoming of scattered showers and thunderstorms across our local area. Precipitation will begin by mid or late Evening in western-southern areas, reaching the Twin Ports between 12-2 AM, then continue to spread farther north to the Arrowhead and Iron Range communities after 3 AM. Deep tropical moisture will spread south to north into our area during the night as dewpoints climb into the 60s in Southern areas while PWS increase to between 1.00-1.75" Tonight. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible especially by late Tonight with areas of flooding possible Overnight. A few of the thunderstorms could also become severe later Tonight as elevated CAPES climb to between 500-1500 j/kg along and south of Highway 2 in Minnesota and generally west of Highway 53 in Northwest Wisconsin. Large hail and damaging wind would be the main threats if severe weather does develop later in the night. Cass, Crow Wing, Aitkin, Pine, Carlton, Southern St. Louis, Douglas, Burnett and Washburn Counties would be most susceptible to getting a few severe thunderstorms late Tonight.

Partly-mostly cloudy skies will cover our area with lows in the 50s and 60s Tonight along with east or southeast winds from 10-20 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

A rather potent disturbance will pass E/NE through the Upper Midwest on Friday before exiting the region by Friday Night. A warm front will lift N/NE toward Eastcentral Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin on Friday before it pushes toward the south again by Friday Evening. Showers or thunderstorms are expected in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Friday with precipitation ending from west to east by Friday Evening. Abundant moisture in place...Dewpoints in the 60s with PWS around 1.50-2.00" will result in a potential for heavy rainfall and possible flooding on Friday. There is also a risk for a few severe thunderstorms for Friday, mainly over Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota...Or along and south-east of a line from Hinckley Minnesota to Upson Wisconsin. Large hail and damaging wind would be the main threats if severe weather does develop Tomorrow.

Mostly cloudy skies with highs in the 60s and 70s can be expected Tomorrow with partly-mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 50s to around 60 degrees Tomorrow Night. Winds will be out of the south, east or west Tomorrow at 10-20 mph with north or west winds under 15 mph Tomorrow Night.

Extended Forecast:

An upper level ridge of high pressure is forecast to build into the Upper Midwest this weekend which will result in a few days of dry weather along with moderating temperatures, although an east wind could keep it somewhat cooler near Lake Superior especially by Sunday. High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s for Saturday and Sunday with lows both nights in the 50s and 60s.

The next threat for showers/thunderstorms will come sometime next Monday or early Tuesday as a cold front passes east through the Upper Midwest.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*FLOOD WATCH* valid from Midnight CDT Tonight through Friday Evening...

.Tonight... Becoming mostly cloudy. Occasional showers or thunderstorms developing after Midnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Low 53 to 58. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain increasing to 70 percent late.

.Friday... Occasional showers or thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Mostly cloudy with areas of fog. High 63 to 68. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80%.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible early. Areas of fog. Low 53 to 58. Wind becoming north at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 78 to 83.

.Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 55 to 60.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 78 to 83.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 58 to 63.

.Monday... Partly sunny. Late day showers or thunderstorms possible. High 77 to 82. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 74 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 53 degrees

Tim

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

8/18/10: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:16 PM CDT, Wednesday, August 18th, 2010

All headlines issued by the National Weather Service, Duluth, Minnesota.

Note: A *FLASH FLOOD WARNING* remains in effect until 6:15 PM CDT This Evening for Douglas County in Northwest Wisconsin. Some cities included in the warning are...Chaffey WI...South Range WI...Wentworth WI...Poplar WI...Patzau WI...Maple WI...Lake Nebagamon WI...Hawthorne WI...Blueberry WI...And Bennett WI... Thunderstorms earlier Today has resulted in heavy rainfall and flash flooding in the warned area. Local Law Enforcement reported a number of county roads washed out from thunderstorms Today. County roads reported washed out so far include...Highway V, South of Mc Kinley...Highway W...And standing water on a number of other county roads.

Quite a difference in weather was found across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin last night and Today. Very cool low temperatures occurred in far Northern Minnesota last night while heavy rainfall and thunderstorms affected areas farther south. Note: Thunderstorms began in the Twin Ports around 4 AM CDT This Morning and continued off an on until 1 PM CDT This Afternoon!

Rainfall totals from Tuesday Night, August 17th, 2010 ending around 7 AM CDT This Morning, Wednesday, August 18th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth MN: 0.15"

International Falls MN: 0.85"

Hibbing MN: 0.18"

Cass Lake MN: 0.67"

Kabetogama MN: 0.44"

Northome MN: 0.24"

4 miles East of Island Lake MN: 0.42"

Silver Bay MN: 0.27"

Floodwood MN: 0.34"

4 miles South of Bruno MN: 0.42"

3 miles South of Ashland WI: 0.32"

9 miles North of Bayfield WI: 0.25"

Solon Springs WI: 0.35"

Cloquet MN: 2.10"

10 miles South of Superior WI (Pattison Park Ranger Station) 1.98"

Local Storm Report from Today, Wednesday, August 18th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

*2:00 PM CDT 8/18/10: 0.75" diameter hail. 14 miles East of Hayward WI (Sawyer County)

*Douglas County Roads were flooded from Today's thunderstorms.

*Lake Superior Zoo (Duluth, Minnesota) was also flooded by Today's storms.

Low temperature report from This Morning. Source: NWS Duluth MN.

International Falls MN: 43 degrees

Cook MN: 42 degrees

Kabetogama MN: 42 degrees

Northome MN: 43 degrees

Embarrass MN: 41 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: 41 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A cold front has been sagging slowly toward the south since last night and as of late Afternoon this boundary extended from Southcentral Upper Michigan through Northcentral Wisconsin back through Central Minnesota. Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred near that boundary last night and This Morning generally for areas along and south of Highway 2 in Minnesota, some of those storms produced dangerous lightning strikes along with heavy downpours. Duluth Doppler Radar rainfall estimates indicate that anywhere from 1.50-3.00" of rain may have fallen along and south of a line from Boy River to Hill City to Gowan Minnesota through Poplar and Marengo in Northwest Wisconsin...And along and north of a line from Pine River to Aitkin to Sandstone Minnesota to Hayward Wisconsin.

The widespread cloudiness in Southern parts of our area has limited the amount of warmth and instability This Afternoon which is keeping CAPE values down to generally the 500-1000 j/kg range late Today with Lifted Indices of zero/-2 degrees C. A few showers have been falling at times This Afternoon near the cold front in Southern portions of our area, otherwise it was dry for the rest of us.

High temperatures Today were in the 60s to around 70 degrees Today, but it was cooler at the head of Lake Superior (50s) A rather tight moisture gradient covered our area Today with dewpoints ranging from the 40s in Northern Minnesota with 55-64 degree dewpoints in Northwest Wisconsin back through Eastcentral Minnesota. PWS late Today ranged from 0.70-0.90" along and north of Minnesota's Iron Range to between 1.00-1.40" in Northwest Wisconsin back through the Twin Ports, Brainerd, Hinckley and Pine City. Winds Today were south-southwest or north/east in direction around 20 mph or less.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery show that a northwest flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest Today with strong winds aloft >60 knots at mid levels and 100 knots at upper levels in place across Central Canada Today. A large upper level low was spinning around over Central-Northern Canada/Hudson Bay Today while upper level ridging was in place over the Southwest U.S. A strong temperature gradient continued Today with 50s/60s across most of Central Canada and Northern Minnesota with temps of 85-100 degrees from the Northern Plains back through the Western High Plains/Rockies/and Southern U.S. The overall 500 mb pattern has a definate Autumn look to it with the strong jet stream and impressive temperature contrasts.

Tonight:

The cold front in Central Minnesota late This Afternoon will drop into Southern Minnesota by dawn. Scattered showers or thunderstorms remain a possibility through around 1 AM Tonight, generally along and south of a line from Brainerd Minnesota to Park Falls Wisconsin, limited instability should keep any thunderstorm from becoming too intense, but there is certainly enough support in the shear department and with the stronger mid/upper level winds to cause more robust convection, but the lack of warm air and instability should be the deciding factor in keeping any thunderstorms from turning severe through the Evening hours. Locally heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning strikes will be the main threat from any thunderstorm This Evening.

An area of high pressure sitting to our northwest This Afternoon will slide to a position north/northwest of our local area by late Tonight. Skies will be partly-mostly cloudy around our area Tonight with perhaps some areas of fog with low temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Winds will be out of the north or east under 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

High pressure will be in control of our weather Tomorrow resulting in partly cloudy-mostly sunny skies, low humidity and high temperatures generally in the 70s. By Thursday Night, expect Today's cold front to have stalled out in Southern Minnesota Tomorrow before it starts to retreat toward the N/NE Tomorrow Night. A surge of elevated instability with CAPES from 500-1000 j/kg are forecast to advect north into Central-Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Thursday Night with Lifted Indices of zero/-2 degrees C. Scattered showers or thunderstorms could develop Tomorrow Night especially southwest-south of a line from Cass Lake Minnesota to Hayward Wisconsin. Although widespread severe weather is not expected Thursday Night, an isolated risk for severe thunderstorms does exist with a potential of large hail and or damaging winds...This would include the Counties of Cass, Crow Wing, Southern Aitkin and Pine in Minnesota and Burnett, Washburn and Sawyer in Wisconsin.

Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecast across our area Tomorrow Night with lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Winds will be out of the southeast or east around 20 mph or less during this period.

Extended Forecast:

A rather vigorous upper level disturbance will be pushing north/east through the Upper Midwest on Friday. Dewpoints climbing into the 60s with PWS of 1.00-1.50" will be in place across our local area out ahead of that disturbance on Friday. Scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Friday into Friday Evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms could develop on Friday as CAPES climb to around 1000 j/kg with Lifted Indicies of zero/-3 degrees C. Highs on Friday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Friday Night in the 50s to around 60 degrees.

An upper level ridge will build into our area this weekend which will result in mainly dry conditions with moderating temperatures. Highs on Saturday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Saturday Night in the 50s and 60s, similar temperatures can be expected for Sunday.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy with some clearing later in the night. Patchy fog. Low 47 to 52. Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible late. Low 53 to 58. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 65 to 70. Chance of rain 50%.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible early. Low 53 to 58. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 78 to 83.

.Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 55 to 60.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 78 to 83.

Normal High Temperature Today 74 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 54 degrees

Tim

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

8/17/10: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:10 PM CDT, Tuesday, August 17th, 2010

Weather Tibits:

*August 15th and 16th, 2010 featured back to back days with high temperatures in the 60s at Duluth, Minnesota. The last time this happened was back on June 15th-16th, 2010.

Low temperature report across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Tuesday, August 17th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

International Falls MN: 41 degrees

Hibbing MN: 38 degrees

Two Harbors MN: 43 degrees

Orr MN: 39 degrees

Bigfork MN: 39 degrees

Longville MN: 39 degrees

Hayward WI: 41 degrees

Cass Lake MN: 40 degrees

Northome MN: 40 degrees

Embarrass MN: 40 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure of 1020 mb has moved into Eastern Iowa as of mid-Afternoon with a southerly flow now occurring on the backside of this high in Minnesota which is beginning to transport 55-65 degree dewpoints which were located in Western-Southern Minnesota, Southeast South Dakota, Nebraska and Iowa slowly toward the north. Partly-mostly sunny skies were found across our area Today with high temperatures in the middle-upper 60s along and north of the Iron Range with lower to mid 70s for the remainder of our local area. Winds Today shifted to the southwest at 10-20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A fast flow from the west-northwest was in place across the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, Upper Midwest and adjacent portions of Central/Western Canada per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis. One branch of strong winds aloft (100 knots or greater) was centered to our northwest Today with another corridor of strong winds aloft >100 knots covering the Eastern Great Lakes/Northeast U.S. Another highlight of this developing weather pattern is a tightning baroclinic zone (temperature gradient) with 850 mb temperatures Today per RUC model analysis ranging from +2/+4 degrees C across Central Canada to +14/+20 degrees C from Western Minnesota back through the Dakotas. Surface temperatures ranged from the 50s across parts of Ontario/Manitoba Province to the middle 80s across the Central-Western Dakotas.

Tonight:

A strong warm advection pattern will develop across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight as a southwest low level jet increases to between 30-55 knots during the night. Meanwhile a cold front which was centered in Northwest North Dakota This Afternoon will be heading southeast and should reach Northern areas of Minnesota by dawn. The strong low level jet, warm advection and increasing amounts of moisture combined with the forcing associated with the approaching cold front should result in the development of scattered showers or thunderstorms Tonight, mainly west of a line from Grand Marais Minnesota to Siren Wisconsin. The showers and thunderstorms will move east or east-southeast Tonight so Northwest-Western parts of our area will see the precip first, with areas from the Arrowhead down through the Twin Ports and into far Northwest Wisconsin seeing possible rain during the Overnight hours.

Instability will be on the rise Tonight, especially in terms of elevated CAPE (1000 j/kg or less) with Lifted Indices from zero/-3 degrees C. Around 30-40 knots of SHEAR combined with the strong low level jet/strong warm advection pattern will promote an isolated risk for strong-severe thunderstorms Tonight generally west-northwest of a line from McGrath to Ely Minnesota. Hail and high winds will be the main threats from stronger storms Tonight along with locally heavy downpours and dangerous lightning strikes.

Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found across our area Tonight with lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Winds will be out of the south, southwest or north around 20 mph or less.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

A cold front will sag toward the south during this period. The front should be over Northern Minnesota Tomorrow Morning, reaching the Twin Ports during the late Morning/early Afternoon, then continue sagging south, reaching the Lake Mille Lacs/Hayward Lakes area by mid or late Afternoon Tomorrow. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur near this boundary Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night along with partly-mostly cloudy skies.

The greatest potential for severe weather Wednesday and Wednesday Evening will be along and south of a line from Leader to Hinckley Minnesota to Danbury to Winter Wisconsin. In this corridor, CAPES are forecast to climb to around 1000 j/kg with Lifted Indices from -1/-3 degrees C. SHEAR of 30-45 knots along with fast mid level winds from the west around 40-50 knots will combine with southwest winds near the surface and at 850 mb to cause a severe weather threat with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats. Areas at risk include Southern Cass, Crow Wing, Southern Aitkin and Pine Counties in Minnesota, and Burnett, Washburn and Sawyer Counties in Northwest Wisconsin.

A threat for some thunderstorms also exist farther north toward Duluth, Hill City, Grand Rapids and in far Northwest Wisconsin Tomorrow but the storm threat in this area would be north of the southward moving boundary, thus any thunderstorm that were to develop in this environment would be in the cooler air and be elevated in nature, thus the threat for severe weather seems relatively low compared to areas farther south.

High temperatures Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with a wide range in dewpoints from the 40s in far Northern Minnesota to the 60s farther south. Lows Tomorrow Night will range from the 40s across Northern Minnesota to the 50s and 60s elsewhere.

Winds will be out of the southwest, north or east around 20 mph or less Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night.

Extended Forecast:

A cold front will become stationary over Southern Minnesota on Thursday as an area of high pressure passes by to our north/east. The cold front in Southern Minnesota will turn into a warm front as it moves E/NE Thursday Night and Friday, the boundary will lift slightly to the north in response to a rather potent upper level disturbance/surface low pressure which will move from the Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest later this week. The forecast models differ a bit on where the axis of heavier rainfall will setup for Thursday Night and Friday, but right now it appears to be favoring portions of Northwest Wisconsin through Eastcentral/Southern Minnesota with some showers also possible Thursday Night and Friday across Northern-Northeast Minnesota. The chance for severe weather looks minimal around our area later this week, but scattered non-severe thunderstorms are a possibility in parts of our area for Thursday Night and Friday.

This weekend looks mainly dry at the moment as an upper level ridge builds north into the Upper Midwest.

High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s Thursday and Friday with lows generally in the 50s both nights.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly cloudy with skies becoming mostly cloudy late. Scattered showers or thunderstorms possible Overnight. Low 55 to 60. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

.Wednesday... Scattered showers or thunderstorms. Considerable cloudiness. High 67 to 72. Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Wednesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. A few showers possible early. Low 50 to 55. Wind north at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. High 68 to 73.

.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 50 to 55. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 65 to 70. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. High 70 to 75.

Normal High Temperature Today 74 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 54 degrees

Tim

Monday, August 16, 2010

8/16/10: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:21 PM CDT, Monday, August 16th, 2010

Local Storm Reports from Friday, August 13th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

*2:27 PM CDT 8/13/10: 1.00" diameter hail. 4 miles Southeast of Pine City MN (Pine County) Hail was reported along Highway 70, east of Rock Creek Minnesota.

*3:05 PM CDT 8/13/10: Flash Flood. 4 miles Southeast of Pine City MN (Pine County) Water over Highway 70, about 3 miles East of Interstate 35. Also, water flowing over some rural roads in Southern Pine County (Rock Creek area)

*3:08 PM CDT 8/13/10: 1.50" of rain, fell in 20-30 minutes. 4 miles North of Grantsburg WI (Burnett County)

*4:03 PM CDT 8/13/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 6 miles Southwest of Pine City MN (Pine County) Trees down in the Southwest part of Pine City.

*4:07 PM CDT 8/13/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 1 mile West of Pine City MN (Pine County) Power lines downed.

*4:15 PM CDT 8/13/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. Hinckley MN (Pine County) Power lines blown down.

*4:50 PM CDT 8/13/10: Flash Flood. 2 miles Southwest of Hinckley MN (Pine County) 3.00" of rain in an hour. Observer reported a lot of standing water even in grassy areas. Ditches full.

*5:39 PM CDT 8/13/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 2 miles East of Benoit WI (Bayfield County) Lots of branches down varying in size.

*5:42 PM CDT 8/13/10: 0.88" diameter hail. 4 miles South of Ashland WI (Ashland County) Strong winds as well.

*6:00 PM CDT 8/13/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 5 miles South of Hayward WI (Sawyer County) Trees blown down, south side of city...Particularly in the Northwoods Beach area, south of Hayward.

*6:00 PM CDT 8/13/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. Odanah WI (Ashland County) Trees blown down onto some roads in the Odanah area.

*6:25 PM CDT 8/13/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. Namekagon WI (Bayfield County) Tree limbs blown off trees.

*7:00 PM CDT 8/13/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 4 miles West-Northwest of Park Falls WI (Price County) Trees blew down and took out some power lines near Butternut Lake.

*7:27 PM CDT 8/13/10: 5.35" of rain. 5 miles North of Webster WI (Burnett County) Rainfall total was since 9:30 PM CDT Thursday, August 12th, 2010.

*7:30 PM CDT 8/13/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 3 miles North of Park Falls WI (Price County) Price County Sheriff reports several trees and a power line down.

*8:15 PM CDT 8/13/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. Mercer WI (Iron County) Iron County Sheriff reports many trees and power lines down.

*8:15 PM CDT 8/13/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. Gile WI (Iron County) Iron County Sheriff reports numerous trees and power lines in in Oma.

Weather Tibits:

*46 consecutive days in a row with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees which tied the record from July 20th through September 3rd, 1877! The high temperature on Sunday, August 15th, 2010 failed to reach 70 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota (69 degrees) which ended our streak of high temps of at least 70 degrees at 46 straight days.

*Average Monthly Temperature through 8/15/10 at Duluth, Minnesota: 70.3 degrees
Departure: 4.9 degrees Above Normal.

*Precipitation total through the 15th of August, 2010: 4.51"
Departure: 2.55" Above Normal.

August 2010 has featured 9 days with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees at Duluth, MN and 5 days with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees.

Tornado reports from Friday, August 13th, 2010 from far Southern-far Southeastern Minnesota. Source: Storm Prediction Center.

*3:22 PM CDT 8/13/10: Tornado. 1 mile West of Hayfield MN (Dodge County)

*3:29 PM CDT 8/13/10: Tornado. 4 miles Northeast of Hayfield MN (Dodge County)

*3:55 PM CDT 8/13/10: Tornado. 6 miles South of Kasson MN (Dodge County)

*4:40 PM CDT 8/13/10: Tornado. 4 miles Southwest of Rochester MN (Olmsted County)

*5:35 PM CDT 8/13/10: Tornado. 4 miles South-Southwest of Mankato MN (Blue Earth County)

*5:40 PM CDT 8/13/10: Tornado. Rock Dell MN (Olmsted County)

Weather History:

On this date in 1988... A record high temperature of 91 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Second day in a row with a Fall like weather pattern as deep low pressure (998 mb) remains over Northern Ontario Province while a tight pressure gradient between that low and a ridge of high pressure to our west continued to produce gusty northwest winds at 15-30 mph across our area Today. Note: Gale Warnings continued Today for portions of Lake Superior for the third day in a row, wave heights as large as 11 feet over some parts of Lake Superior Today, east of the Western shores. High temperatures were generally in the low 60s in the north with low 70s in Southern areas Today with partly-mostly sunny skies.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Today as a large upper level low/upper level trough (5520-5580 meters) was in place across Central-Northern-Eastern Canada per water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight:

Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with high pressure moving into Western Minnesota while deep low pressure remains well to our northeast. A few light showers or sprinkles could fall This Evening, mainly north of the Iron Range. Temperatures will cool into the 40s and lower 50s Tonight with some 30s in the typical cold spots. Winds will be out of the northwest at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph, especially This Evening.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

High pressure will shift off to our south-east during this period with winds turning to the south on the backside of that high. A gradual increase in moisture will start to take place across our area especially by Tuesday Night as a southwest low level jet increases to around 30 knots, that combined with some warm advection spreading in from the Northern Plains could cause a few showers or thunderstorms Tuesday Night, mainly across Northern Minnesota. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Tuesday Night in the 50s to around 60 degrees. Winds will become southwest at 10-20 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

A cold front is expected to sink south-southeast through Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Wednesday into Wednesday Night. Dewpoints climbing into the 50s/60s with PWS around an inch and 850 mb td's increasing to around +12 degrees C, combined with CAPES around 1000 j/kg and Lifted Indices falling to around -2 degrees C should be enough to generate some scattered showers or thunderstorms in our local area for Wednesday and Wednesday Night. 30-40 knots of SHEAR, around 40 knots of W/NW mid level flow and a southwest wind at 850 mb are forecast to be in place which could lead to a few severe thunderstorms Wednesday Afternoon or Wednesday Evening, mainly along and south of a line from Backus Minnesota to Ashland Wisconsin. Large hail and damaging wind would be the main threats the way it looks now. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 70s with 60s northwest-north of the Iron Range. Lows Wednesday Night will range from the 40s in Northern Minnesota to the 50s and 60s elsewhere. The cold front passing across our area on Wednesday is forecast to stall out somewhere in Southern or Central Minnesota for Thursday and Friday as a low pressure disturbance rides E/NE along that boundary later this week. We could see some additional showers and perhaps some thunderstorms at times across portions of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Thursday and Friday depending on where this boundary sets up...If it's farther north, then we could be dealing with a threat for heavy rainfall and possibly some severe weather later this week. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Thursday Night in the 40s and 50s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Breezy especially This Evening. Partly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind west to northwest at 15 to 30 mph, decreasing to 10 to 20 mph late.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75. Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Scattered showers or thunderstorms developing, especially during the Afternoon. Variable cloudiness. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 40%.

.Wednesday Night... Scattered showers or thunderstorms, mainly during the Evening. Mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Chance of rain 40%.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. High 68 to 73.

.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 50 to 55. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 67 to 72. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 74 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 54 degrees

Tim