Saturday, July 31, 2010

7/31/10: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:34 PM CDT, Saturday, July 31st, 2010

Friday and early Saturday rainfall totals (7-30/7-31) from Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: 0.04"

International Falls MN: 0.22"

Brainerd MN: 0.96"

Hibbing MN: 0.07"

Ashland WI: 0.17"

Cook MN: 0.51"

Kabetogama MN: 0.22"

Northome MN: 0.68"

2 miles South of Tower MN: 0.70"

Embarrass MN: 0.50"

Littlefork MN: 0.22"

Floodwood MN: 0.22"

9 miles North of Bayfield WI: 0.65"

5 miles Northwest of Washburn WI: 0.63"

Gurney WI: 0.85"

Weather History:

On this date in 2006...A record high temperature of 95 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

The widespread low cloudiness which developed across our area earlier Today finally gave way to some sunshine from west to east by This Afternoon...Once the sun came out, temperatures warmed up nicely with high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s with slightly cooler readings at the head of Lake Superior. Dewpoints late Today were in the 55-64 degree range with PWS of 0.90-1.20". Winds Today were variable or calm.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500 mb flow covered the Upper Midwest Today with an upper level ridge of high pressure (5880-5940 meters) stretching from the Central-Southern Rockies through the Central-Southern Plains and through the Southeast U.S. Several upper level disturbances are embedded within the fast flow aloft across the Western U.S. and Northern tier of the U.S. and through portions of Canda with movement of those systems toward the east or east-southeast.

Tonight:

Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found across our area Tonight. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible later in the night, mainly in Northern and Western areas. No severe weather is anticipated Tonight due to limited amounts of instability that will be over our area Tonight. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with winds turning to the south under 15 mph. Patchy fog could also develop over Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin later in the night.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

Low pressure will be centered over the Western High Plains/Northern Plains region Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night. A warm front attached to this low will extend E-SE into Central Minnesota on Sunday, this boundary is then expected to lift north Sunday Night. A 35 knot SW 850 mb jet will be in place across Minnesota during this period and this will result in a warm/moist advection pattern overspreading our area. Dewpoints should reach the 60s with PWS of 1.25-1.75". We should also see some instability develop around our area with CAPES by Sunday Afternoon-Night increasing to around 1000 j/kg while Lifted Indices drop to around -3 degrees C. Scattered showers or thunderstorms will be possible over all of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Sunday and Sunday Night. A few of these storms could become severe especially west of a line from Crane Lake to Aitkin Minnesota. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats along with the usual heavy downpours and dangerous lightning strikes!

Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area during this period with highs Tomorrow in the 70s and 80s with lows Tomorrow Night mainly in the 60s. Winds Sunday and Sunday Night will be out of the south, southwest or east under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A warm, moist and unstable airmass will remain over our area on Monday as a cold front settles south-east through the Upper Midwest. CAPES of 1500-3000 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -3/-5 degrees C combined with fast winds aloft and around 30-40 knots of 0-6 KM and Effective Bulk Shear could lead to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms and possibly some severe weather Monday Afternoon and Evening across Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota.

It looks like things will dry out Monday Night and Tuesday as slightly drier and more stable air works into our area while the main surface boundary sets-up farther to our south.

High temperatures for Monday and Tuesday will be mainly in the 80s with lows in the 50s and 60s both nights.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 58 to 63. Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Sunday... More humid. Variable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 78 to 83. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Sunday Night... Humid with scattered showers or thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy. Low 60 to 65. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

.Monday... Humid. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly sunny. High 80 to 85. Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday Night... Decreasing cloudiness. Low 60 to 65.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 80 to 85.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 58 to 63.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 78 to 83.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 77 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 56 degrees

Tim

Friday, July 30, 2010

7/30/10: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:15 PM CDT, Friday, July 30th, 2010

UPDATED INFORMATION FROM TUESDAY'S (7/27/10) SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK...SOURCE: NWS DULUTH, MINNESOTA.

*3 confirmed tornadoes in Northwest Wisconsin on Tuesday, July 27th, 2010.

*Morse WI tornado (Ashland County) 6:24 PM CDT: Preliminary EF-1 rating with wind speeds of 86-110 mph.

*Eastern Ashland County Wisconsin tornado (7:12 PM CDT) Preliminary EF-0 rating with wind speeds of 65-85 mph.

*Turtle Flambeau Flowage tornado (Iron County) Start time: 7:20 PM CDT, 9.7 miles Southwest of Mercer Wisconsin. End time: 7:26 PM CDT, 6.5 miles Southwest of Mercer Wisconsin. Preliminary EF-1 rating with wind speeds of 86-110 mph. Path length: 4.8 miles. Max width: 3/8 miles or 660 yards.

July 2010, record setting at Duluth, MN. Source: NWS

Every day so far in July 2010 has featured a high temperature of at least 70 degrees at Duluth Minnesota. This is only the 2nd time in Duluth weather history which goes back 137 years for such a feat to occur. The last time this happened was in July of 1988. Even the warmest July on record (2006) featured one day where the high temperature failed to reach 70 degrees, that occurred on July 10th, 2006 when the maximum temperature was just 65 degrees.

Weather History:

On this date in 1995 and in previous years...A record high temperature of 94 degrees occurred at Duluth Minnesota.

On this date in 1992 and previous years...A record low temperature of 42 degrees occurred at Duluth Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Moisture has been increasing across our area Today as southerly winds develop on the back side of an area of high pressure which was centered over the Eastern Great Lakes This Afternoon. Dewpoints late Today were generally in the lower to middle 60s across our local area with PWS of 1.20-1.60". Mostly cloudy skies were found in our area Today with scattered showers affecting parts of our area. High temperatures Today due to the clouds and scattered rain stayed in the 65-75 degree range with south or east winds under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis. An upper level ridge was in place across the Central-Southern Rockies through the Central-Southern Plains and the Southeast U.S. A couple of disturbances embedded within the fast W-NW 500 mb flow were dropping southeast through Western-Central Canada down through the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest.

Tonight:

Scattered showers and mostly cloudy skies with areas of fog will be the rule across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight...A warm front sitting near the Eastern Dakotas late Today combined with some disturbances heading southeast into our area will lead to some rain at times Tonight. There is some instability around portions of our area late This Afternoon with meso-analysis showing CAPES of around 500-1000 j/kg with Lifted Indicies of -1/-4 degrees C. This will be enough to support a few thunderstorms with brief heavy downpours and occasional lightning strikes Tonight, but severe weather is not expected. Lows Tonight will be in the 50s and 60s with winds out of the south, west, or east under 15 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

W/NW flow aloft will continue during this period. Some instability will remain in place with CAPES maxing out around 1000 j/kg with Lifted Indices as low as -3 degrees C. Any weak impulse dropping southeast into the Upper Midwest will tap into this instability and will lead to a few showers or thunderstorms in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night, otherwise expect partly-mostly cloudy skies during this period with highs Saturday in the 70s and 80s with lows Saturday Night in the 50s and 60s. Winds during this period will be out of the west, south, or east under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

An area of low pressure with it's warm front and cold front is forecast to track across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest from Sunday into Monday. The forecast models Today and over the past few days have differed on how rapidly to spread showers/thunderstorms into our area. The NAM-WRF model has a faster solution compared to most of the other models Today, a faster solution would result in rain chances Sunday through Monday while a slower solution would result in the better rain chances occurring from Sunday Evening/Overnight into Monday. The prospects for severe weather seem to be diminishing a bit compared to 24 hours ago for our local area, but this could still change. A southwest low level jet >30 knots is expected to be in place ahead of this system late this weekend, this along with favorable shear and winds aloft could still result in some severe weather should the instability increase with future model runs.

High temperatures Sunday and Monday will be in the 70s and 80s across our area with low temperatures in the 50s and 60s both nights.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy with areas of fog. Scattered showers ending Overnight. An isolated thunderstorm also possible. Low 56 to 61. Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 75 to 80. Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 57 to 62. Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Sunday... Partly sunny. High 75 to 80.

.Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 60 to 65. Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. High 75 to 80. Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday Night... Becoming partly cloudy. Low 60 to 65.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 80 to 85.

Normal High Temperature Today 76 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 56 degrees

Tim

Thursday, July 29, 2010

7/29/10: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:43 PM CDT, Thursday, July 29th, 2010

...2 TORNADOES CONFIRMED IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN FROM TUESDAY EVENING, JULY 27TH, 2010...

The National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota has confirmed that at least two tornadoes touched down late Tuesday Afternoon/Evening in Northwest Wisconsin.

***UPDATE AS OF 4:40 PM CDT: NWS DULUTH, MN has confirmed that a third tornado touched down in Ashland County Wisconsin Tuesday Evening, July 27th, 2010***

Source NWS Duluth, MN:

*A tornado touched down in the Turtle Flambeau Flowage area, near Springstead Landing in Iron County Wisconsin. The tornado in Iron County on Tuesday the 27th of July was the first observed tornado in 4 decades (40 years)!

*The second tornado touched down just north of Highway F along Roddis Lane Road in far Eastern Ashland County Wisconsin. The tornado in Ashland County on Tuesday the 27th of July was the first observed tornado in that area since May 1998!

14 warnings including 4 tornado warnings and 10 severe thunderstorm warnings were issued by the NWS Duluth, MN on Tuesday, July 27th, 2010. There was a total of 30 severe weather reports across Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota on Tuesday with an additional 17 non-severe weather reports.

Local storm report...Per NWS Duluth, MN:

5:00 PM CDT 7/27/10: Lightning. A teenage boy was struck by lightning while jogging on Skyline Parkway, near Spirit Mountain, 9 miles Southwest of Duluth Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin:

The weather pattern from Tonight through early next week will be characterized by a fast northwest or west-northwest flow aloft. Several upper level disturbances embedded within this flow will find their way into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest over the next 5 days. Those systems combined with increasing amounts of moisture and instability will lead to the development of scattered showers or thunderstorms in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin especially from Friday into Friday Evening, and again on Saturday, and then again sometime during the Sunday-Monday time frame. With favorable winds aloft, there could be a few severe thunderstorms around portions of our local area...Especially by this weekend into next Monday the way it looks now as enough instability and moisture should return north by that time to possibly produce a slightly higher chance for a few severe thunderstorms.

Low temperatures Tonight, Friday Night, Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the 50s and 60s with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s on Friday with 70s and 80s this weekend and Monday of next week.

Winds Tonight through Friday Night will be out of the south, west, or east under 20 mph.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 56 to 61. Wind south around 12 mph.

.Friday... Considerable cloudiness. Scattered showers developing...Isolated thunderstorms also possible. High 70 to 75. Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

.Friday Night... Scattered showers possible, especially during the Evening...Isolated thunderstorms also possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 57 to 62. Wind variable around 12 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 75 to 80. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 57 to 62.

.Sunday... Partly sunny. High 75 to 80.

.Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 60 to 65. Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. High 75 to 80. Chance of rain 30%.

Normal High Temperature Today 77 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 56 degrees

Tim

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

7/28/10: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:15 PM CDT, Wednesday, July 28th, 2010

Another outbreak of severe thunderstorms and very heavy rainfall hit portions of Eastcentral Minnesota and most of Northwest Wisconsin on Tuesday, July 27th, 2010.

Local storm reports.
Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

*4:20 PM CDT 7/27/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 2 miles North of Aitkin MN (Aitkin County) Trees down near Aitkin. Reported wind gusts of 50 mph.

*4:58 PM CDT 7/27/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. Maple WI (Douglas County) Several powerlines down.

*5:00 PM CDT 7/27/10: 1.50" diameter hail. Proctor MN (St. Louis County)

*5:00 PM CDT 7/27/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 1 mile North of Blueberry WI (Douglas County) 3 large trees blown down.

*5:20 PM CDT 7/27/10: 1.00" diameter hail. 2 miles Southeast of Iron River WI (Bayfield County)

*5:20 PM CDT 7/27/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 5 miles Southeast of Iron River WI (Bayfield County) Trees down on RV trading camper at Twin Bear Campground.

*5:30 PM CDT 7/27/10: 1.75" diameter hail. 8 miles Southeast of Iron River WI (Bayfield County) Hail up to the size of golfballs on Scenic Drive rest area, also in nearby areas along Highway H. Some trees blown down and a few snapped off including red pines and oaks.

*5:30 PM CDT 7/27/10: 1.75" diameter hail. 6 miles Southwest of Ino WI (Bayfield County) Quarter to golfball size hail dented 3 vehicles and cracked a windshield on a police car as it was driven by extremely strong winds. Tree damage also noted.

*5:35 PM CDT 7/27/10: 2.75" diameter hail. 3 miles South of Ino WI (Bayfield County) A combination of severe wind and hail causing damage. Wheat and corn fields destroyed along County Highway E. Also, shingles blown from a roof and siding damage to a house. Barn nearly collapsed. Reports of spiky golfball to baseball size hail. Highway department had to scrape roadway clear of several inches of wet leaves that got stripped from trees by wind driven hail.

*5:45 PM CDT 7/27/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. Benoit WI (Bayfield County) Roof blown off of a barn.

*5:48 PM CDT 7/27/10: 1.00" diameter hail. Mason WI (Bayfield County) A few trees blown down in the area.

*6:21 PM CDT 7/27/10: Tornado. Morse WI (Ashland County) Unconfirmed public report of a tornado.

*6:10 PM CDT 7/27/10: 0.50" diameter hail. High Bridge WI (Ashland County)

*6:14 PM CDT 7/27/10: 0.75" diameter hail. High Bridge WI (Ashland County)

*6:17 PM CDT 7/27/10: 1.00" diameter hail. High Bridge WI (Ashland County)


*6:19 PM CDT 7/27/10: 1.75" diameter hail. High Bridge WI (Ashland County)


*6:22 PM CDT 7/27/10: 1.00" diameter hail. 2 miles North of Mellen WI (Ashland County)

*6:26 PM CDT 7/27/10: 1.50" diameter hail. 2 miles North of Mellen WI (Ashland County)


*6:28 PM CDT 7/27/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 1 mile North of Glidden WI (Ashland County) Tree down.


*6:34 PM CDT 7/27/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 6 miles West of Trego WI (Washburn County) Several trees down 6" in diameter.


*6:50 PM CDT 7/27/10: 1.75" diameter hail. 10 miles North-Northeast of Hayward WI (Sawyer County)


*6:53 PM CDT 7/27/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. Ino WI (Bayfield County) 2 foot diameter tree snapped above ground.


*7:27 PM CDT 7/27/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. Turtle Flambeau Flowage WI (Iron County) Numerous trees down reported by Iron County Sherrif.

*7:28 PM CDT 7/27/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 2 miles North of Stone Lake WI (Washburn County) Power lines down along County Highway A.


*7:30 PM CDT 7/27/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. Mercer WI (Iron County) Numerous trees down along Murray Landing Road. Power lines also down. Roads blocked in the area.

*7:30 PM CDT 7/27/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. Stone Lake WI (Sawyer County) Large tree down on Bouten Road.

*7:30 PM CDT 7/27/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 2 miles Northeast of Spooner WI (Washburn County) Large tree limb on cabin.


*7:40 PM CDT 7/27/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. Turtle Flambeau Flowage WI (Iron County) ***6 INJURIES*** Preliminary report. Rescues were in progress on the Islands at the time of the event.

*7:52 PM CDT 7/27/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. Birchwood WI (Washburn County) Large pine tree fell on cabin and made a hole in the roof.


*8:00 PM CDT 7/27/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. Park Falls WI (Price County) Several trees down.


*8:06 PM CDT 7/27/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 2 miles North-Northwest of Radisson WI (Sawyer County) Large tree blocking Highway 70 and 27. Blinding rain as well.


Rainfall totals from Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from 7 AM CDT Tuesday ending around 7 AM CDT Wednesday. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.


St. Louis County:


Duluth MN: 0.71"

Hibbing MN: 0.22"


Embarrass MN: 0.15"


Koochiching County:


Northome MN: 0.22"


Cass County:


Cass Lake MN: 0.34"


Crow Wing County:


Brainerd MN: 0.83"


Pine County:


Bruno MN: 2.21"


6 miles West of Sandstone MN: 1.64"


4 miles South of Bruno MN: 2.60"


Hinckley MN: 1.47"


Bayfield County:


5 miles Northwest of Washburn WI: 0.67"


Burnett County:


Webster WI: 1.13"


Ashland County:


Ashland WI: 1.35"


Butternut WI: 1.84"


Sawyer County:


Hayward WI: 3.13"


Iron County:


Upson WI: 3.15"


Gurney WI: 1.78"


Here are some additional rainfall totals from Tuesday Evening July 27th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.


Askov MN (Pine County) 1.71" Fell in 2 hours.


1 mile Southwest of Hinckley MN (Pine County) 2.00". Fell in 50 minutes.

Minong WI (Washburn County) 2.57". 2.13" fell between 7:00-8:00 PM CDT.


Upson WI (Iron County) 2.85"


6 miles West of Trego WI (Washburn County) 1.50", fell between 7:10-7:40 PM CDT.


Hayward WI (Sawyer County) 2.68", fell between 6:56-7:56 PM CDT.


Gile WI (Iron County) 3.15"


11 miles West-Northwest of Drummond WI (Bayfield County) 2.10". 1.36" fell between 7:00-8:00 PM CDT.

Here are some rainfall totals around Northern Minnesota from late Monday Night/early Tuesday Morning. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

International Falls MN: 0.27"


Cass Lake MN: 0.12"


Cook MN: 0.22"

Kabetogama MN: 0.35"

2 miles South of Tower MN: 0.18"

4 miles East of Island Lake MN: 0.55"

Weather tidbit:
Source: NWS Aberdeen SD&TWC.

*On Friday, July 23rd, 2010 at 6:10 PM: 4.25" diameter hail (Softball size) fell at Vivian South Dakota (Lyman County) The diameter of this hail was 8.00", the record is 7.00". The circumference was 18.50", the record is 18.75". The weight of this hail was 1.92 pounds, the record is 1.67 pounds.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure of 1020 mb was building east from the Dakotas Today. A broken field of cumulus clouds developed This Afternoon over our local area, otherwise skies were partly to mostly sunny Today with much lower humidity and pleasant temperatures. Highs Today were in the 70s with a few locales inching close to 80 degrees. Dewpoints This Afternoon were generally in the 50s with PWS around 0.80". Winds Today were out of the west or northwest at 10-25 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500 mb flow was in place in the Upper Midwest Today as Tuesday's potent upper level trough/upper level low move quickly off toward the east through the Northern Ontario/Southern Hudson Bay/Western Quebec Province areas.

Tonight:

Clear to partly cloudy skies will be found in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with high pressure remaining off to our west while a secondary cold front which extended from Southern Ontario Province to just north of Lake Superior around 1 PM Today drops south and begins to weaken as it does so. Slightly cooler air was found behind that secondary boundary where Afternoon 850 mb temps of +8 degrees C were found, while out ahead of that boundary 850 mb temps were sitting around +12 degrees C late Today. Lows Tonight will be in the 50s, but a few 40s can't be ruled out in the typical cool spots. Winds will be out of the north or west under 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

An area of high pressure will pass through Upper Midwest on Thursday before it starts to exit to our south/east by Thursday Night. Partly-mostly sunny skies are forecast on Thursday with highs in the 70s to lower 80s along with low humidity and winds from the west, north, or south under 20 mph. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected for Thursday Night with lows in the 50s to around 60 degrees, winds will be out of the south or east under 15 mph. Moisture and instability will begin to increase to our west Tomorrow Night as low pressure moves into the Western High Plains/Northern Plains region. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the Dakotas Tomorrow Evening, this activity will then spread east-southeast Thursday Night and could clip the Western-Southern portions of our local area.

Extended Forecast:

Upper level flow will be out of the northwest from Friday into early next week. Low pressure systems/disturbances embedded within this flow will drop southeast across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on occasion, those systems combined with enough moisture and instability in place will lead to scattered showers or thunderstorms from time to time starting on Friday and lingering through early next week. There might be some severe weather as well, but this would depend on the timing of these disturbances, as well as the amount of instability and moisture that can surge north to meet up with these systems. High temperatures for Friday and Saturday will be mainly in the 70s with lows both nights in the 50s to around 60 degrees.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Clear to partly cloudy. Low 53 to 58. Wind west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 76 to 81. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Wind becoming south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday... A few showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. High 75 to 80.

.Saturday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60.

.Sunday... Partly sunny. High 75 to 80.

Normal High Temperature Today 77 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 56 degrees

Tim

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

7/27/10: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 8:02 PM CDT, Tuesday, July 27th, 2010

...All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota...

Weather tidbits:

*1, possibly 2 people were struck by lightning in Duluth Minnesota late This Afternoon.

*The Aerial Lift Bridge in Duluth Minnesota was struck by lightning late Today which caused the bridge to stay up for over an hour. As of 8 PM, the lift bridge was back up and running.

*Reports of large hail and areas of wind damage around the Twin Ports with the severe thunderstorms that moved thru the city around 5 PM Today.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Scattered showers and thunderstorms some of which were severe developed late last night over Eastern North Dakota with even a report of a tornado near Fargo North Dakota around 2 AM last night...This activity moved through Western-Southern parts of our local area This Morning with a few severe thunderstorm warnings issued for parts of Cass, Crow Wing and Aitkin Counties Minnesota before 9 AM.

A persistent band of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms lingered most of the day in a west-east band across Central-Southern parts of our area which kept the greatest instability/moisture/and warm air a bit more south then what was forecasted 24 hours ago thanks to the extra cloud cover and scattered precipitation.

In the end the amount of clouds and precip really didn't have much affect on what happened late Today as scattered strong to severe thunderstorms erupted over portions of Eastcentral Minnesota with a line of strong to severe thunderstorms continuing to push south-east across Northwestern Wisconsin This Evening. The main threats out of the storms late Today have been from large hail and damaging winds along with torrential rainfall which has led to some localized flooding problems. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes have also been occurring with these storms late Today. The threat for tornadoes never really did materalize This Afternoon due to the storms lining out rather quickly instead of remaining individual supercells.

Mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies covered our local area Today with high temperatures running in the 70s, but middle and upper 80s were common in Southern areas. Dewpoints Today were in the 65-70 degree range with PWS from 1.30-2.10"! Winds Today were out of the south or east under 20 mph. Surface map as of 7 PM featured a cold front which extended from Western Lake Superior into Northwest Wisconsin to Southern Minnesota.

This Evening's Upper Level Analysis:

A vigorous upper level trough was moving east into Central Canada This Evening per water vapor satellite imagery. A westerly flow aloft was in place over the Upper Midwest downstream of this system with a 100 knot upper level jet located over Western Ontario Province per RUC model analysis along with a widespread area of 30-60 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls over the Upper Midwest and Central Canada.

Tonight:

*Tornado Watch* continues until 11 PM CDT for Ashland, Iron, Washburn, Sawyer and Price Counties in Northwest Wisconsin...

*Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory* is in effect until 11 PM CDT Tonight for Central Aitkin, Eastcentral Crow Wing, Carlton, Southeast St. Louis and Northwest Douglas Counties.

*Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory* is in effect until 1:45 AM CDT Wednesday for Eastern Pine, Southern Ashland, Southern Bayfield, Northern Burnett, Southern Douglas, Iron, Northwest Sawyer and Northern Washburn Counties.

A cold front will exit Northwest Wisconsin before Midnight. The threat for showers and thunderstorms, severe weather, and heavy rainfall will end from northwest to southeast through Midnight as this boundary exits the area. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with lows in the 50s and 60s along with lowering humidity by dawn. Winds will shift to the north and west at 10-20 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

A much quieter weather pattern will take over during this period as high pressure builds east out of the Northern Rockies. Partly-mostly sunny skies with highs in the 70s and 80s along with much lower humidity can be expected on Wednesday with mostly clear skies Wednesday Night with lows mainly in the 50s. Winds will be out of the northwest or west at 10-25 mph Tomorrow and under 15 mph Tomorrow Night.

Extended Forecast:

The period from Thursday through early next week will be highlighted by a W/NW flow aloft across the Upper Midwest with an upper level ridge of high pressure centered well to our south. A couple of fast moving low pressure systems/disturbances embedded within this fast W/NW 500 mb flow will pass through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on occasion, and those systems could bring occasional shower/thunderstorm clusters to portions of Minnesota from Thursday into early next week. At this time it appears that the greatest threat for seeing this activity will be to our west-south at least through Saturday. High temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the 70s to around 80 degrees with lows in the 50s and 60s both nights.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY* IN EFFECT UNTIL 11:00 PM CDT TONIGHT.

.Tonight... Skies becoming partly cloudy. Turning less humid. Low 58 to 63. Wind becoming west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday... Breezy and less humid. Partly cloudy. High 77 to 82. Wind west at 15 to 25 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 53 to 58. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 75 to 80.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 53 to 58.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 73 to 78.

.Friday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 56 to 61.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. High 75 to 80.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 77 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 56 degrees

Tim

Monday, July 26, 2010

7/26/10: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:27 PM CDT, Monday, July 26th, 2010

...Severe weather possible beginning late Tonight and continuing through Tuesday Evening...Damaging wind, large hail, heavy rainfall, dangerous lightning and isolated tornadoes are possible!

Weather History: On this date in 1991, a record low temperature of 40 degrees occurred at Duluth Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Another warm day across our area with high temperatures mostly in the lower to middle 80s. Dewpoints have come up compared to 24 hours ago, but even muggier air will head into our area on Tuesday. Dewpoints This Afternoon were generally in the 60-64 degree range with upper 50s in the Arrowhead of Minnesota. 70+ degree dewpoints covered portions of Western Minnesota and the Dakotas and even as far north as Manitoba Province Canada Today! PWS This Afternoon ranged from 0.90"-1.30" across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with 850 mb td's of +8/+12 degrees C per SPC meso-analysis page. Partly to mostly sunny skies were found in our area Today with southerly breezes of 10-25 mph. Surface map as of 3 PM featured low pressure of 1006 mb centered over the Western North Dakota-Eastern Montana area. A warm front was situated over Northwestern Minnesota with a cold front extending from Southeast Manitoba Province Canada through Northwest North Dakota. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed This Morning in a warm/moist advection pattern along the North Dakota/Minnesota border with a couple reports of large hail in that area. Those storms have lifted into Southern Ontario Province Canada This Afternoon where some additional severe weather has been occurring.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Westerly flow aloft was found over the Upper Midwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery. A potent 500 mb low was dropping southeast through Northeast Alberta/Western Saskatchewan Province Canada This Afternoon with a 70 knot upper level jet found on the south-southeast side of that upper level low Today per RUC model analysis.

Tonight:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover our area Tonight with mild temperatures. Lows will be mainly in the 60s with southerly winds at 10-20 mph. Dewpoints should hold in the 60/65 degree range for most areas Tonight making it feel somewhat muggy. A warm front situated over Northwest Minnesota This Afternoon will head east-northeast during the night while a cold front remains centered to our west-northwest.

The atmosphere has become very unstable across Northern Minnesota and North Dakota This Afternoon with CAPES as high as 4000-6000 j/kg across North Dakota with values ranging from 1000-3000 j/kg in Northcentral Minnesota! Instability is expected to remain quite high through the night in Northern-Western parts of our area and this should allow for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms Tonight along and west-northwest of a line from Brainerd to Grand Marais Minnesota.

The greatest potential for severe weather is expected to be over Koochiching, Itasca, Cass and Northern St. Louis Counties Tonight, including cities such as...International Falls MN, Bigfork MN, Cass Lake MN, Walker MN, Longville MN, Grand Rapids MN, Cook MN, Crane Lake MN and Ely MN.

Shear of 25-35 knots in combination with the amount of instability in place will support a severe threat once storms develop or move into those aforementioned areas Tonight...The main risks will be from damaging winds of 60 mph or greater along with large hail of 1.00" in diameter. There is also an isolated risk for a tornado mainly before Midnight across Koochiching and Northwestern Itasca Counties MN.

Locally heavy rainfall is also expected in any thunderstorm Tonight in Northern-Western areas due to the increasing amounts of low level moisture during the night.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

A very unstable and moist airmass will reside across our local area on Tuesday. CAPES from 2000-3500 j/kg and Lifted Index values of -3/-7 degrees C will be found in our area along with quite a bit of directional and speed shear. 0-6 KM and Effective Bulk Shear values of 30-40 knots are forecast in our area along with a change of wind direction with height as S winds near the surface veer more S-SW at 850 mb and westerly at 500 mb. A stregthening upper level jet >85 knots will be located to our northwest on Tuesday while 500 mb wind speeds increase to 40-50 knots throughout Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Dewpoints will easily climb into the 65-75 degree range on Tuesday with 850 mb td's of +12/+18 degrees C while PWS rise to between 1.30"-2.00"!

A cold front which was situated near the Manitoba Lakes region This Afternoon will settle southeast into this very unstable, warm and moist airmass on Tuesday and this should cause scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Tuesday into Tuesday Evening.

The main threats from severe storms during this period will be from damaging winds and large hail, but there will be a risk for rotating supercells and possibly a few tornadoes between 2PM-6PM.

Some of the forecast models over the past 24 hours have been indicating that there could be a secondary warm front and possibly even a weak surface low that develops Tuesday Morning while moving through Central and Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tuesday Afternoon. Should this occur, then we could see a somewhat higher chance for supercells including a risk for isolated tornadoes Tuesday Afternoon as surface winds back more toward the S-SE.

Another hazard Tuesday and Tuesday Evening will be from locally very heavy rainfall which may lead to some areas of flooding due to the abundant moisture that is expected to be in place.

The threat for showers and thunderstorms along with the risk for severe weather will end from northwest to southeast Tuesday Evening as the cold front exits to our east.

Partly-mostly cloudy skies will cover our area during this period with highs Tuesday in the 70s and 80s, but some 90s are possible mainly in Southern areas. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

Winds will be out of the south or southwest on Tuesday at 10-25 mph with winds turning north or west Tuesday Night at 10-20 mph.

Note: Severe thunderstorm and or tornado watches/warnings will likely be issued at times for portions of our area beginning late Tonight and continuing through Tuesday Evening.

Extended Forecast:

Quieter weather with less humid conditions will return to Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. High temperatures will be mainly in the 70s both days with lows in the 50s with some 40s possible in the typical cool spots, especially Wednesday Night.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mild and a bit humid. Partly cloudy. Low 65 to 70. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday... Muggy and warm. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be severe. Locally heavy rain also possible. Variable cloudiness. High 82 to 87. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

.Tuesday Night... Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible before 8 PM. A few storms could be severe. Locally heavy rain also possible. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 58 to 63. Wind becoming west at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

.Wednesday... Less humid. Partly cloudy. High 75 to 80.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 53 to 58.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 75 to 80.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 53 to 58.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 75 to 80.

Normal High Temperature Today 77 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 56 degrees

Tim

Sunday, July 25, 2010

7/25/10: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 2:23 PM CDT, Sunday, July 25th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 1989, a record high temperature of 89 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather tidbits:

*2nd wettest July so far at International Falls, Minnesota. 8.31" of rain has fallen at International Falls, MN thru July 24th, 2010. This is 5.64" Above the normal amount of 2.67"! The wettest July on record occurred in 1966 when 9.52" of rain fell. There is a chance that July 2010 will go down as the wettest of all time at International Falls Minnesota.

Rainfall totals from Saturday, July 24th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

St. Louis County:

Duluth MN: 0.44"

Hibbing MN: 0.21"

Crow Wing County:

Brainerd MN: 0.13"

Ashland County:

Butternut WI: 0.27"

Sawyer County:

Hayward WI: 0.43"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure of 1020 mb was centered along the Minnesota-Wisconsin border as of mid-Afternoon. Mostly sunny skies with very pleasant temperatures covered our local area Today with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s with comfortable amounts of humidity as dewpoints were only in the 50-55 degree range This Afternoon with PWS around 0.70". Winds Today were variable under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

W/NW 500 mb flow was in place over the Upper Midwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis. A potent upper level low/upper level trough was progressing east-southeast through Eastern Ontario/Western Quebec Province Today while another strong upper level low covered the Northwest Territories, Northern Alberta and Northern Saskatchewan Province Canada Today per water vapor satellite imagery. Note: The 500 mb low in Northwest Canada Today has prompted the issuance of severe thunderstorm watches/warnings as far north as the Northwest Territories Today, per Envrionment Canada.

Tonight:

High pressure will slide off to our south-east with mostly clear skies prevailing in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s, perhaps a few 40s in the typical cool spots. Winds Tonight will be variable under 15 mph.

Monday and Monday Night:

Southerly flow will become established across our area during this period which will start to pump more moisture into the Upper Midwest. Dewpoints should climb into the 60s in most areas Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with PWS climbing to around 1.00". A cold front will remain well to our west-northwest Monday and Monday Night, but a warm/moist advection pattern aided by a 25-35 knot SW 850 mb jet out ahead of that boundary could cause scattered showers and thunderstorms at times across Northern Minnesota, especially by Monday Afternoon and or Monday Night.

There will be sufficient instability and shear in place...CAPES around 1500 j/kg, Lifted Indices around -3 degrees C, and 0-6 KM Bulk Shear and Effective Bulk Shear of 30-35 knots to warrant a risk for isolated severe thunderstorms Monday Night especially in Koochiching, Northern Itasca, and Northern St. Louis Counties MN...Large hail and damaging winds along with localized heavy downpours and dangerous lightning strikes will be possible from thunderstorms/severe storms if they do develop.

Partly-mostly sunny skies are expected on Monday with highs mainly in the 80s, lows Tomorrow Night will be mainly in the 60s with partly-mostly cloudy skies. Winds during this period will be out of the south or southwest at 10-25 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A cold front will settle south/east through Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Tuesday into Tuesday Night. The latest set of forecast models are indicating that there will be quite a bit of instability, moisture and shear in place along and ahead of this front on Tuesday which will result in a risk for severe thunderstorms across our local area.

CAPES Tuesday Afternoon are forecast to range from 1500-2500 j/kg with Lifted Indices from -3/-6 degrees C. 30-40 knots of 0-6 KM Bulk Shear and Effective Bulk Shear are forecast per 09z SREF model along with around 40-50 knots of westerly winds at 500 mb while 850 mb winds veer more southwesterly. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats, but with the shear in place and the change of wind directions with height, there will be a risk for isolated supercells and an isolated tornado threat, especially over Central-Eastern portions of Minnesota late Tuesday Afternoon or Tuesday Evening.

High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 70s and 80s with dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 degrees and PWS of 1.25-1.75", the high moisture content in the atmosphere will also lead to a heavy rain risk in our area. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night look drier as Tuesday's cold front pushes south/east of our area allowing winds to swing around to the northwest which will usher in cooler/drier and more stable conditions. Highs on Wednesday will generally be in the 70s with lows Wednesday Night in the 40s and 50s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 56 to 61. Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Monday... Mostly sunny. Warm. Turning more humid. High 81 to 86. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Mild and humid. Low 62 to 67.

.Tuesday... Humid. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing, especially during the Afternoon. A few storms could be severe. Variable cloudiness. High 80 to 85. Chance of rain 40%.

.Tuesday Night... Scattered showers or thunderstorms mainly during the Evening. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 58 to 63. Chance of rain 40%.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy, less humid. High 75 to 80.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 53 to 58.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 75 to 80.

Normal High Temperature Today 77 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 56 degrees

Tim

Friday, July 23, 2010

7/23/10: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:46 PM CDT, Friday, July 23rd, 2010

*2 tornadoes reported in Western Minnesota on Thursday, July 22nd, 2010 per Storm Prediction Center.

The first tornado was reported at 5:45 PM CDT, 6 miles Northeast of Bemidji, Minnesota (Beltrami County)

The second tornado was reported at 8:05 PM CDT, 4 miles South of Brandon, Minnesota or west of Alexandria, MN (Douglas County)

Rainfall reports from Thursday, July 22nd, 2010 from Northern Minnesota. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Koochiching County:

International Falls MN: 0.91"

Littlefork MN: 1.19"

Cass County:

Cass Lake MN: 0.27"

St. Louis County:

Hibbing MN: 0.14"

Cook MN: 0.43"

Kabetogama MN: 1.04"

3 miles East of Orr MN: 0.94"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure (1002) mb was centered near Thunder Bay Ontario Canada as of mid-Afternoon. A stationary front stretched from Central Wisconsin to Southeast Minnesota to Northern Iowa. This boundary seperates extremely unstable and muggy air along and south of that boundary with much more stable and drier air north of that boundary. Partly-mostly cloudy skies covered our local area Today with high temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s with Afternoon dewpoints ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s with PWS of 0.90"-1.10". Winds Today were out of the northwest or west around 20 mph or less. A secondary area of low pressure (1006 mb) was centered in Southwest South Dakota This Afternoon with a cold front across the Western Dakotas. This next low pressure disturbance has been generating scattered strong-severe thunderstorms Today over portions of Western-Southern North Dakota and Northern South Dakota.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

(5700 meter) upper level low was centered over far Northeast Montana late Today per water vapor satellite imagery with movement toward the south/east. West-southwest flow aloft was in place over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest This Afternoon out ahead of this digging upper low/upper level trough. A plume of deep tropical moisture consisting of dewpoints in the 70s to around 80 degrees and PWS from 1.30"-2.30" covered much of the Plains into Southern parts of the Upper Midwest as well as the Central-Southern Great Lakes Today per water vapor satellite imagery, this plume of deep moisture helped trigger the exceptional rainfall totals that led to some serious flooding last night in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

Tonight:

A warm front will develop well to our south while low pressure heads east out of Southern South Dakota and into Southern Minnesota Overnight. Extremely unstable and tropical air will continue to sit south of our local area Tonight where numerous strong to severe thunderstorms will erupt Tonight with a threat for heavy rain and areas of flooding. In our local area, expect some rain showers spreading from west to east through the night with isolated thunderstorms possible mainly in Southern areas. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will cover Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with lows in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be out of the north, northwest, or east under 20 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

Low pressure with it's warm front and cold front will exit to our south/east early Tomorrow Morning, this will then be followed by the potent upper level low and it's pool of cold air aloft which was over the Northern Rockies This Afternoon, this 500 mb low will reach the Upper Midwest on Saturday and will likely cause scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across our area. The threat for showers will end across our area Saturday Evening as the upper low starts to exit our area to the east with high pressure starting to build in from the Northern Plains. Partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies are forecast on Saturday with highs in the 60s and 70s. Skies will become partly cloudy Saturday Night with lows in the 50s, but some 40s can't be ruled out in the typical cool spots. Winds during this period will be out of the north or northwest at 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

High pressure moves southeast of our area Sunday and Monday which will cause winds to swing around to the south. Temperatures will warm into the 70s and 80s in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Sunday with mainly 80s expected for Monday. Lows Sunday Night and Monday Night will be in the 50s and 60s. A cold front will move through our area most likely from Monday Night into Tuesday Night, this boundary combined with a moist and somewhat unstable airmass in place ahead of the front should lead to a risk for a few showers or thunderstorms sometime early next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers possible, mainly after Midnight. Low 56 to 61. Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph becoming northeast. Chance of rain 40%.

.Saturday... Considerable cloudiness with scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms also possible. High 70 to 75. Wind north at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

.Saturday Night... A few showers possible early. Becoming partly cloudy. Low 53 to 58.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 78 to 83.

.Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 57 to 62.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 82 to 87.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 60 to 65.

.Tuesday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly sunny. High 80 to 85. Chance of rain 30%.

Normal High Temperature Today 77 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 55 degrees

Tim

Thursday, July 22, 2010

7/22/10: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:22 PM CDT, Thursday, July 22nd, 2010

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

There's been some showers roaming through our area Today, but the majority of these showers have been on the light side with the exceptions being north of the Iron Range across Southern Koochiching and Northern St. Louis Counties MN and also in Central-Southern Price County WI, those areas did see some heavier showers at times with doppler radar rainfall estimates nearing a half inch or so in some locations. Otherwise skies have been mostly cloudy Today with some breaks for sunshine especially in Northern and Eastern Minnesota. High temperatures Today were mainly in the 70s, but a few locations in Western-Northern Minnesota were close to 80 degrees late Today. Dewpoints This Afternoon were in the upper 50s in far Northeast Minnesota with 60s elsewhere. Surface map as of 3 PM featured a warm front which extended from Northern Iowa to Southern Wisconsin with low pressure of 1006 mb centered in far Western Iowa. A cold front was located over the Eastern Dakotas with low pressure of 1006 mb in Eastern North Dakota.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500 mb ridge (5940 meters) covered the Southern parts of the Ohio Valley, Southern U.S., and portions of the Central U.S. Today per RUC model analysis. Fast flow aloft generally from the west continued Today over the Northern tier of the U.S. or on the north side of this ridge. A couple of disturbances were embedded within this W/SW flow aloft, one system was passing through the Central/Southern Great Lakes late Today, another system was heading east through Southern Manitoba Province and the Northern Plains, the final system (strongest one of all) was digging S-SE out of Western Canada into the Pacific Northwest per water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight:

A warm front will remain south-southeast of our local area while a cold front moves east out of the Red River Valley area of Minnesota. The atmosphere has become slightly unstable This Afternoon in Northern-Western parts of our area with CAPES up to 1000 j/kg along with Lifted Indices of -1/-4 degrees C. The lift associated with the approaching disturbance/front will likely cause scattered showers and thunderstorms Tonight especially west of a line from Crane Lake to Malmo. There is abundant low level moisture in place late Today with dewpoints in the 60s, PWS from 1.40-1.60" and 850 mb td's around +12 degrees C to support a heavy rain threat in Northcentral Minnesota Tonight. The overall severe threat looks pretty low This Evening, but with 0-6 KM Bulk Shear up to 40 knots there is the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms before 10 PM mainly over Koochiching, Itasca, and Cass Counties Minnesota. Large hail up to 1.00" in diameter and damaging wind gusts to 60 mph will be the main threats along with dangerous lightning strikes.

The rest of Northeast-Eastern Minnesota as well as Northwest Wisconsin could see a few showers at times Tonight as an 850 mb warm front remains near these areas through late Tonight while a S/SW low level jet up to 35 knots persists out ahead of the western cold front.

Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found across our area Tonight with patchy fog possible late, lows will be in the 50s and 60s. Winds Tonight will be out of the south, east, or west under 20 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

One disturbance exits to our east while a stronger one moves into the Northern Plains on Friday and the Upper Midwest Friday Night. A warm front which extended from Northern Iowa to Central Wisconsin This Afternoon will sink a bit to the south Tonight and Tomorrow before retreating back to the north a bit, but remaining well south of our local area Tomorrow Night. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are expected in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Friday with high temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s along with west or northwest winds at 10-20 mph. Mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 50s and 60s are forecast Tomorrow Night. The bulk of the heavy rain and any severe threat associated with this next system looks to remain to our south late Tomorrow/Tomorrow Night, but expect some rain showers to overspread our local area especially by Friday Evening/Overnight.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure along with it's cold front and upper level trough will be passing through the Upper Midwest on Saturday, this system could bring some more showers or isolated thunderstorms to Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Saturday, then a period of dry weather can be expected from Saturday Night through Monday. High temperatures on Saturday will be mainly in the 70s with Sunday's high temps in the 70s and 80s. Low temperatures Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 58 to 63. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph becoming southwest Overnight.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 75 to 80. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 55 to 60. Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 78 to 83.

.Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 57 to 62.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 82 to 87.

Normal High Temperature Today 77 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 55 degrees

Tim

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

7/21/10: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 8:17 PM CDT, Wednesday, July 21st, 2010

Rainfall totals across Northern Minnesota from Tuesday, July 20th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

St. Louis County:

Duluth MN: 0.14"

Hibbing MN: 0.28"

Cook MN: 0.13"

Embarrass MN: 0.36"

Koochiching County:

Northome MN: 0.27"

Cook County:

Grand Marais MN: 0.37"

Grand Portage MN: 0.26"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Mostly sunny skies covered our area Today with high temperatures in the upper 70s to low/mid 80s along with tolerable amounts of humidity as dewpoints were generally in the 55-64 degree range with early Evening PWS of 1.00" around the Brainerd Lakes/Pine City-Hinckley area, east to the Siren/Grantsburg area in Northwest Wisconsin with 0.70"-0.90" PWS across Northern Minnesota and the rest of Northwestern Wisconsin. Winds Today were out of the west or northwest under 20 mph. Surface map as of 8 PM featured high pressure of 1019 mb centered over Southwest Wisconsin while a warm front was draped across the Central Plains with low pressure of 1008 mb across the Western High Plains.

This Evening's Upper Level Analysis:

500 mb flow was beginning to transition a bit from the W/NW to the W/SW This Evening as an upper level trough begins to take shape across the Northern Rockies. Upper level ridge (5940 meters) covered the Southern-Southeast U.S. This Evening per RUC model analysis while a vigorous upper level low/upper trough (5700 meters) progresses east through Quebec Province/Northeast U.S.

Tonight:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as high pressure continues to push off to our southeast while a warm front remains well to our south during the night. Warm/moist advection occurring north of that boundary will fuel multiple clusters of showers and thunderstorms with a heavy rain/severe threat Tonight from South Dakota through portions of Nebraska, Iowa and Southcentral Minnesota. Additional showers should develop in Southern parts of our area late Tonight, mainly south of a line from Walker Minnesota to Hayward Wisconsin. Lows Tonight will be in the 50s and 60s with winds becoming southeast to east under 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Cooler temperatures will occur on Thursday as our local area sits north of a warm front which will reach a Southern Minnesota to Central Wisconsin line by late Thursday Afternoon. E/SE surface winds will occur to the north of this front and this combined with quite a bit of low level moisture surging north into our area with dewpoints mainly in the 60s, 850 mb td's of +10/+16 degrees C, and PWS from 1.25"-1.75" will lead some areas of rain and rain showers in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night. With the abundant moisture in place, some of these showers could be locally heavy. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible Tomorrow and Tomorrow Evening, but severe weather is not expected in our area due to the cool/overcast conditions north of the warm front which will help limit the amount of warmth and instability around here. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 50s and 60s. Winds Thursday will be out of the east or southeast at 10-20 mph with a few higher gusts possible thanks in part to a strengthening SE 850 mb jet of 30-45 knots during the day. Winds Tomorrow Night will be out of the east, north or southwest under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A stationary front will remain in the general vicinity from Southern Minnesota to Central Wisconsin from Friday into early Saturday as one low pressure disturbance exits to our east by early Friday while another one moves from the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest from Friday into Saturday. Some additional showers or isolated thunderstorms will be possible Friday and Saturday across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, but severe weather is not expected around this area either day. Highs Friday and Saturday will be mainly in the 70s, but 60s if clouds are more extensive. Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the 50s and 60s. Looks like will get a break in the cool, showery weather for Sunday and Monday with temperatures moderating as well. The next threat for showers/thunderstorms will come sometime Tuesday or the middle of next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 58 to 63. Wind becoming east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Cooler. Mostly cloudy with occasional rain or rain showers. High 67 to 72. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible, especially during the Evening. Low 58 to 63. Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph becoming west. Chance of rain 50%.

.Friday... Partly sunny. Showers possible. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 55 to 60. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 75 to 80.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 77 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 55 degrees

Tim

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

7/20/10: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:12 PM CDT, Tuesday, July 20th, 2010

Note: 6th wettest July so far at International Falls, Minnesota. 7.23" of rain has fallen thru July 19th, 2010. The wettest July ever recorded at International Falls happened in 1966 when 9.52" of rain fell.

Here are some rainfall totals across Northern Minnesota from Monday Morning through Tuesday Morning. Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Hibbing MN: 0.09"

Cass Lake MN: 0.39"

Northome MN: 0.18"

Embarrass MN: 0.37"

Dixon Lake MN: 0.26"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A couple of upper level disturbances passing through the Upper Midwest along with a pool of chilly air aloft (500 mb temps around -13 degrees) in conjunction with some surface heating with increasing amounts of instability caused scattered showers and a few thunderstorms around our local area Today. The thunderstorms that have developed This Afternoon have stayed below severe levels, but one cell has turned quite strong as of 3 PM as it heads east-southeast across Northwest Douglas County, just south of the city of Superior in Northwestern Wisconsin. Brief heavy downpours and dangerous lightning strikes have also occurred in a few of these storms This Afternoon. Latest meso-analysis late Today indicates that CAPES have climbed to around 1000 j/kg across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with Lifted Indices ranging from -1/-4 degrees C with Lapse Rates of 6.0-8.0 c/km. 0-6 KM Shear and Effective Bulk Shear was generally around 30-40 knots This Afternoon across our area which is enough to produce an isolated severe weather risk for the rest of Today and into the early Evening hours. Partly-mostly cloudy skies were found in our area Today with high temperatures in the middle 70s to lower 80s with 60s in rain cooled areas and also along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Afternoon dewpoints were in the middle 50s to lower 60s with PWS of 1.00-1.20". Winds Today were variable in direction under 15 mph.

Note: A severe thunderstorm developed and passed through Northern parts of Polk and Barron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin This Afternoon, this storm dropped some very large hail 1.25-2.50" in diameter along with some damaging winds.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

The flow aloft was nearly zonal Today (west-east) across the Upper Midwest. An upper level disturbance was moving east across Lake Superior and nearby areas of Ontario/Minnesota/Wisconsin This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery. An upper level low was centered over Southern Saskatchewan Province This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery with movement toward the east. A band of fast mid/upper level winds (50-90 knots) were found across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Today to the south-southeast of that upper low in Southern Saskatchewan Province.

Tonight:

Scattered showers or thunderstorms will continue across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Evening with locally heavy rain and occasional lightning strikes being the main hazards out of these storms along with hail generally under one half inch in diameter and wind gusts up to 40 mph in the stronger storms. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will cover our area Tonight with areas of fog developing Overnight. The threat for showers or thunderstorms should diminish by the late Evening through the Overnight hours the way it looks now. Lows Tonight will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees, perhaps a few 40s in the typical chilly spots if skies clear out enough during the night. Winds will variable under 15 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

An area of high pressure will move into the Upper Midwest during this period which should lead to some pleasant conditions. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 50s and 60s. Partly-mostly sunny skies are expected Tomorrow with partly-mostly cloudy skies on tap for Wednesday Night. Winds during this period will be out of the west or south up to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

South winds will transport a moist airmass north into our area for Thursday and Thursday Night as a rather vigorous disturbance approaches from the Northern Plains while an area of low pressure heads into the Upper Midwest. A stationary front which has been and will continue to be draped across the Central Plains into Wednesday will lift north-northeast Thursday and Thursday Night as the low and disturbance exit the Northern Plains. There will also be a cold front that will head into the Upper Midwest by Thursday Night. The forecast models Today continue to show some disagreement in regards to the track of the low and placement of the warm front on Thursday and this will have implications on how far north the severe weather will get for Thursday and Thursday Night.

Note: The Storm Prediction Center has Northern-Eastern Minnesota and parts of Northwest Wisconsin in a *Slight Risk* for severe thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday Night. The risk area is along and west of a line from Ely to Duluth Minnesota and along and west of a Port Wing to Hayward Wisconsin line.

At this time it looks like the warm front will stay south of our immediate area which means that thunderstorms that form around here should be elevated in nature and could pose a risk for large hail.

Dewpoints climbing into the 60s, PWS of 1.25"-1.75" along with 850 mb td's of +12/+16 degrees C will lead to a heavy rain threat around our area for Thursday and Thursday Night, should thunderstorms develop.

This system looks to pass off to our east on Friday, but a W/NW flow aloft coupled with the possibility of another disturbance or two dropping into the Upper Midwest could lead to a few more showers or thunderstorms Friday and Saturday around Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 70s with lows Thursday Night in the 50s and 60s. Highs on Friday will be in the 70s to lower 80s with lows Friday Night in the 50s and 60s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... A few showers or thunderstorms This Evening. Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog possible late. Low 55 to 60. Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Wednesday... Patchy fog possible early. Partly cloudy. High 78 to 83. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 57 to 62. Wind becoming south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 71 to 76. Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 58 to 63. Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday... Showers possible. Partly sunny. High 73 to 78. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 78 to 83. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 77 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 55 degrees

Tim

Monday, July 19, 2010

7/19/10: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:41 PM CDT, Monday, July 19th, 2010

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies along with a few showers were common across our local area Today, most of the showers have been light, but a few locales north of the Iron Range and also down near Brainerd have seen some heavier showers at times Today. High temperatures were in the 70s to around 80 degrees Today with dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s, PWS of 1.00-1.20". Winds Today were out of the generally out of the west or south under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

West/northwest flow aloft prevailed over the Upper Midwest Today with an upper level low digging south-southeast out of Western Alberta Province and Eastern British Columbia per water vapor satellite imagery. A couple of disturbances embedded within this W/NW 500 mb flow continued to move east across the Northern U.S. Today.

Tonight through Tuesday Night:

Partly-mostly cloudy skies will cover our area through this period with a few troughs/upper level disturbances continuing to pass through the Upper Midwest while a better defined stationary front remains well to our south across the Central Plains. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will be found across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Tonight through Tomorrow Night, no severe weather is anticipated due to relatively weak instability, but some brief heavy downpours and occasional lightning strikes could occur in some of the spotty convection. Lows Tonight and Tuesday Night will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees, but a few of the typical cool spots could dip into the 40s. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s to around 80 degrees. There could also be some patchy fog late Tonight/early Tomorrow, and again late Tomorrow Night over parts of our area. Winds during this period will be variable under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Spotty showers or isolated thunderstorms could persist across our area on Wednesday with high temperatures in the 70s to around 80 degrees with lows Wednesday Night in the 50s to around 60 degrees. From Thursday into Friday we could see a somewhat better organized low pressure system pass through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, but the exact details in regards to timing and the track of the surface low are handled differently with the forecast models Today. Right now it appears that we could see some showers or thunderstorms late this week around our area, but the better threat for severe weather and heavy rain could stay to our south, unless the surface low takes a more west-northwest track which would help lift a warm front further north and closer to our local area. High temperatures on Thursday will be mainly in the 70s with lows Thursday Night in the 50s and 60s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. A few showers possible This Evening. Low 55 to 60. Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. A few Afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible. High 77 to 82. Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 77 to 82.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 57 to 62.

.Thursday... Mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 71 to 76. Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 58 to 63. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday... Showers possible. Partly sunny. High 73 to 78. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 77 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 55 degrees

Tim

July 17th, 2010:

video video video video

All these videos were shot from Princeton Minnesota Saturday Evening, July 17th, 2010. Enjoy.

Tim

Saturday, July 17th, 2010 Storm Chase





























First tornadic supercell of the day, this was in the town of Medina Minnesota (west suburbs of Minneapolis) A tornado was reported, probably a rain wrapped one, 2 miles southwest of Watertown Minnesota at 5:01 PM CDT which was about 15-20 miles off to our west-southwest. This supercell was dropping more south then east, so we were unable to drop far enough to the southwest to get onto that side of the storm. In the photo above you can clearly see the inflow cloud aka beaver tail, also the lowering (wall cloud) Very good inflow winds in Medina while this picture was taken. The next picture was taken from Plymouth Minnesota, a little east-southeast of Medina MN, the supercell we had been following was starting to weaken now as it no longer had the inflow cloud or wall cloud visible in the storm. This first supercell held up for quite sometime...Tracking mainly southeast or south-southeast along the Interstate 94 corridor in Central Minnesota before finally weakening southwest of the Twin Cities. For the most part this storm was elevated and produced some very large hail as big 4.25" in diameter! The storm finally turned surface based late Saturday Afternoon west of the Twin Cities where it dropped at least one tornado.
Our next move was to head back to the north to intercept the supercells and bow echo that were dropping southeast out of Central Minnesota once again. We arrived in Princeton Minnesota (Mille Lacs County) around 6:45 PM CDT and waited for the next round of storms to move in. A tornado warning was issued for Mille Lacs County, sirens went off and the local fire department were driving around the city of Princeton, warning the public of the approaching severe weather, this was a good 20-25 minutes before the storm arrived, so plenty of time for people to seek shelter!
A brief rope tornado was reported 3 miles east of Foreston Minnesota at 7:25 PM CDT Saturday, July 17th, 2010. This was about 15 miles north-northwest of Princeton Minnesota in Mille Lacs County.
Shawn, Sam, and I left Duluth around 2 PM Saturday and returned back home around 9:45 PM Saturday Evening.
Total mileage:
333.42
Counties covered:
Carlton MN, Pine MN, Kanabec MN, Mille Lacs MN, Sherburne MN, Wright MN and Hennepin MN.
Thanks for reading and hope you enjoy the pictures!
Tim

Sunday, July 18, 2010

7/18/10: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:32 PM CDT, Sunday, July 18th, 2010

...ANOTHER OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY, JULY 17TH, 2010...

*Tornado reports in Minnesota from 7/17/10: 8

4:16 PM CDT 7/17/10: Tornado. 2 miles Southeast of Kingston, Minnesota (Meeker County)

5:01 PM CDT 7/17/10: Tornado. 2 miles Southwest of Watertown, Minnesota (Carver County)

6:58 PM CDT 7/17/10: Tornado. 1 mile South of Cushing, Minnesota (Morrison County)

7:25 PM CDT 7/17/10: Tornado. 3 miles South of Foreston, Minnesota (Mille Lacs County)

8:20 PM CDT 7/17/10: Tornado. Dayton, Minnesota. (Hennepin County)

8:22 PM CDT 7/17/10: Tornado. 5 miles North-Northwest of Lake Wilson, Minnesota. (Murrary County)

8:27 PM CDT 7/17/10: Tornado. Anoka, Minnesota. (Anoka County)

8:57 PM CDT 7/17/10: Tornado. Lake Elmo, Minnesota. (Washington County)

2010 Tornado Reports per Storm Prediction Center, ending on July 17th, 2010.

*Minnesota: 89-1st place
*Texas: 87-2nd place
*Kansas: 80-3rd place

Weather tidbits:

*Record number of tornadoes in Minnesota is 72 which occurred in 2001. 2nd place occurred was in 1998 with 57 tornadoes!

*Actual number of tornadoes so far in 2010 in Minnesota is around 45, but still way above our average which is around 20-22 through mid-July.

*344 severe weather reports across the U.S. on Saturday, July 17th, 2010 with the highest concentration of severe reports over the Northcentral U.S. and over parts of the Eastern U.S.

*To go along with the tornado and damaging wind reports across Minnesota on Saturday, July 17th, 2010 there was also a number of large hail reports...Some ranging in size from 2.00-4.25" in diameter or Egg-Hen to almost Softball size!

Here are the storm reports from Northern Minnesota on Saturday, July 17th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

*12:15 PM CDT 7/17/10: 0.88" diameter hail. 2 miles West of Pine River, Minnesota (Cass County)

*2:19 PM CDT 7/17/10: 0.50" diameter hail. Leech Lake, Minnesota (Cass County)

*2:20 PM CDT 7/17/10: 0.50" diameter hail. 1 mile South of Walker, Minnesota (Cass County)

*3:27 PM CDT 7/17/10: 0.50" diameter hail. 4 miles North-Northeast of Brainerd, Minnesota (Crow Wing County)

*4:45 PM CDT 7/17/10: 1.00" diameter hail. 3 miles South of Ironton, Minnesota (Crow Wing County)

*6:00 PM CDT 7/17/10: Thunderstorm wind damage. 2 miles North of Fort Ripley, Minnesota (Crow Wing County) 2 large oak trees blown down. Other small trees damaged.

*6:25 PM CDT 7/17/10: 0.75" diameter hail. Fort Ripley, Minnesota (Crow Wing County)

*6:40 PM CDT 7/17/10: Thunderstorm wind damage. 2 miles North of Motley, Minnesota (Crow Wing County) Many trees down, power was out. Some shingles blown off.

Here are some rainfall totals across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from 7 AM CDT Saturday through around 7 AM CDT Sunday. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: 0.85"

Brainerd MN: 1.39"

Ashland WI: 0.55"

Hayward WI: 0.62"

Cook MN: 0.28"

Embarrass MN: 0.23"

Bruno MN: 0.60"

12 miles North of Isle MN: 2.88"

5 miles Southwest of Brainerd MN: 2.28"

Solon Springs WI: 0.43"

Winter WI: 0.57"

Butternut WI: 0.36"

Upson WI: 0.72"

Sarona WI: 0.68"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Lingering low level moisture combined with some heating which occurred during the day led to the development of spotty showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two This Afternoon, mainly in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Otherwise skies were partly-mostly sunny Today with high temperatures in the lower 70s in Downtown Duluth with mid 70s to low 80s common elsewhere. Dewpoints late Today were in the mid 50s to lower 60s with PWS of 0.80"-1.10". Winds Today were variable under 15 mph.

This Evening's Upper Level Analysis:

West/northwest flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest late Today per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery. Several disturbances were embedded within this fast flow aloft which covered the Northern U.S. and Western portions of Canada Today. Upper level high pressure ridges (5940) covered the Southwest U.S. as well as Florida.

Tonight:

Clear-partly cloudy skies will be found across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with any isolated shower activity dissipating by Midnight. Lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s with light winds.

Monday and Monday Night:

A weak disturbance will be near our area through this period, this combined with CAPES approaching 1000 j/kg and Lifted Indicies of zero/-3 degrees C could lead to the formation of a few showers or thunderstorms in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. No severe weather is expected Tomorrow or Tomorrow Night the way it looks now, but some brief heavy rain and occasional lightning strikes could occur. Highs on Monday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Monday Night in the 50s and 60s. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area during this period with winds out of the south, west, or north under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A warm front/stationary front will remain to our south, generally across Nebraska and Iowa through Friday and this is where the deepest moisture/instability will be located and where the higher threat for heavy rain/severe weather will be found during the next few days. Our local area will see a few disturbances continue head off to the east from the Northern Rockies and those systems combined with enough moisture and instability could result in a few showers or thunderstorms at times on Tuesday and possibly again by later this week. High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows both nights in the 50s and 60s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 55 to 60. Wind variable around 12.

.Monday... Partly sunny. Afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible. High 79 to 84. Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly cloudy. Low 57 to 62. Wind west around 12 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 77 to 82. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 57 to 62.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 78 to 83.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 57 to 62.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 76 to 81.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 77 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 55 degrees

Tim