Wednesday, June 30, 2010

6/30/10: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:08 PM CDT, Wednesday, June 30th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 1988... A record low temperature of 36 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

...Top 10 wettest Junes on record at the following locations in Northwest Wisconsin... Source: NWS Duluth, MN...

*Solon Springs, WI: 8.01" of rain during June 2010 making it the 9th wettest June on record. The wettest June occurred back in 1967 when 9.92" of rain fell.

*Gordon, WI: 6.34" of rain fell during June 2010 making it the 8th wettest June on record. The wettest June occurred in 1981 when 9.10" of rain fell

Note: If no precipitation falls at the Duluth Airport before Midnight Tonight, then this will be the first time with back to back days with no measurable precipitation (at least a trace) since June 2nd and 3rd.

Another chilly Morning in portions of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Here are some low temperatures from earlier Today, source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: 44 degrees

International Falls MN: 36 degrees

Hibbing MN: 35 degrees

Silver Bay MN: 39 degrees

Grand Marais MN: 36 degrees

Orr MN: 36 degrees

Cook MN: 37 degrees

Eveleth MN: 37 degrees

Aitkin MN: 39 degrees

Cloquet MN: 39 degrees

Hayward WI: 39 degrees

Superior WI: 43 degrees

Kabetogama MN: 38 degrees

2 miles South of Tower MN: 36 degrees

Embarrass MN: 32 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: 33 degrees

3 miles South of Ashland WI: 43 degrees

Butternut WI: 40 degrees

Upson WI: 39 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Changes in the weather pattern were starting to occur Today across portions of our area as a strong ridge of high pressure heads east into Northwest Wisconsin while a weak disturbance combined with some F-GEN forcing and a little push of moist air rides east-southeast across Northcentral Minnesota This Afternoon or on the backside of the high to our east. The result from this has been for an increase in mid level clouds along with an area of sprinkles or light rain showers in Northcentral Minnesota This Afternoon while mainly sunny skies continued in Northwest Wisconsin. High temperatures Today were in the lower to middle 70s Today, but 60s were common at the head of Lake Superior and along portions of the North Shore of Lake Superior. The lake air doesn't have quite the bite as it has recently, however, and this is partially due to water temperatures which have climbed into the middle 50s/lower 60s in portions of Western Lake Superior in recent days per MSGC website. One last day with low dewpoints Today with readings in the 40s and 50s across our area while Afternoon PWS ranged from 0.50"-0.80" along and east of a line from about International Falls to Duluth down to Trego, while Western parts of our area from Grand Rapids and Hinckley back through Aitkin and the Brainerd Lakes region had PWS up to 1.00" late Today. Winds across our area were variable to calm in Northwest Wisconsin with southeast or east winds in Northern-Eastern Minnesota under 20 mph.

Today's upper level analysis:

Northwest flow aloft covered Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today per RUC model analysis with an upper level ridge (588-594 meters) in place over the Northern-Central Plains where high temperatures Today reached the 80s and 90s with even some lower 100s in Central South Dakota with dewpoints especially over the Dakotas in the very steamy mid/upper 60s Today! 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +9/+12 degrees C in Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast Minnesota to +13/+16 degrees C in Western-Southwest areas. +20/+32 degree C H85 temperatures were widespread across the Dakotas and Western High Plains Today and some of that air will advect E/NE into the Upper Midwest during the next three days.

Tonight:

High pressure will be centered to our east Tonight with some warm/moist advection continuing to spread east through the Northern half of Minnesota. A warm front organizing over the Central Dakotas This Afternoon will also lift E-NE Tonight with a 30-50 knot low level jet developing to our west. A few sprinkles or light rain showers are possible in Northern/Eastern Minnesota This Evening, otherwise it should remain dry Tonight with lows mainly in the 50s, but some 40s are possible in the typical cold spots in Northwest Wisconsin and extreme Northeast Minnesota. Winds Tonight will be out of the southeast or east under 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Southerly winds will begin to increase during this period thanks to a tightening pressure gradient between high pressure to our east and low pressure centered well to our west. A rather robust low level jet (30-45 knots) will also develop across the Upper Midwest during this period and this will help in transporting deeper moisture and warmer air into our area. Highs on Thursday will be in the 70s and 80s, but 60s will be common from Superior and Downtown Duluth and along the North Shore of Lake Superior thanks to an easterly component to those south winds. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s and 60s. Dewpoints will rise into the 50s and 60s across our area during this period with PWS ranging from 0.80"-1.25". The warm front lifting northeast through our area could cause a few showers or thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday Night, mainly in far Northern-far Northeast Minnesota, but an isolated shower or thunderstorm is even possible as far south as Hibbing and Two Harbors on Thursday. Partly-mostly sunny skies can be expected Tomorrow with clear-partly cloudy skies Tomorrow Night. Winds out of the south will increase to 10-25 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Southwest upper level flow will be in place over the Upper Midwest from Friday through early next week. A cold front which will reach the Dakotas Tomorrow through Saturday will make slow headway through Minnesota and Wisconsin this weekend into early next week. It does appear that there will be ample amounts of moisture in place along and ahead of this boundary to support a heavy rain threat as dewpoints surge into the 60s with even some 70s possible Saturday and or Sunday, PWS look to range from 1.25"-1.75" per 15z SREF model from Today. All this could create a heavy rain event at times over some portions of the Upper Midwest especially from Saturday Night into Sunday Evening. Thunderstorms will occur as well from late Saturday into Sunday, but the overall severe threat looks relatively low at this point due to marginal amounts of instability...

High temperatures for Friday and Saturday will be mainly in the 80s across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with a few locales possibly getting close to 90 degrees! Low temperatures Friday Night and Saturday Night will be generally in the 60s, but it's not out of the question that some areas stay in the lower 70s Saturday Night.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Variable cloudiness. A few sprinkles possible This Evening. Low 50 to 55. Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... More humid. Warmer, especially away from Lake Superior. Partly cloudy. High 75 to 80 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 58 to 63. Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday... Warm, breezy, and humid. Partly cloudy. High 81 to 86. South winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

.Friday Night... Warm and humid. Mostly clear. Low 62 to 67.

.Saturday... Warm, breezy, and humid. Partly cloudy. High 83 to 88. South winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

.Saturday Night... Very warm, humid. Late night showers or thunderstorms possible under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Low 67 to 72. Chance of rain 30%.

.Fourth of July... Humid. Occasional showers or thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy. High 75 to 80. Chance of rain 60%.

Normal High Temperature Today 74 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 52 degrees

Tim

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

6/29/10: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:24 PM CDT, Tuesday, June 29th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 1992... A record low temperature of 40 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN. Note: We missed the record low temperature by just 2 degrees at the Duluth Airport Today.

A chilly start to the day across portions of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Here are some low temperatures that were reported earlier Today. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: 42 degrees

International Falls MN: 36 degrees

Hibbing MN: 35 degrees

Silver Bay MN: 34 degrees

Ely MN: 37 degrees

Bigfork MN: 36 degrees

Cloquet MN: 39 degrees

Hayward WI: 40 degrees

Superior WI: 43 degrees

Babbitt MN: 33 degrees

2 miles South of Tower MN: 38 degrees

Embarrass MN: 31 degrees

Floodwood MN: 37 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: 34 degrees

3 miles South of Ashland WI: 42 degrees

Butternut WI: 43 degrees

Upson WI: 41 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Mainly sunny skies were found across our area Today, although there's been some clouds at times mainly in extreme Northeast Minnesota, around the Pigeon River, Grand Portage, Hovland, and Grand Marais area. High temperatures Today were in the middle 60s to around 70 degrees which is about 5-7 degrees below average for late June, but with the full sunshine around it didn't feel that cool. Dewpoints This Afternoon were only in the 30s and 40s with PWS around one half inch! Winds Today were variable under 15 mph. Surface map This Afternoon featured a 1024 mb high pressure ridge extending from Western Ontario Province through Central Minnesota, south through the Central Plains.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

A large upper level low (540 meters) was heading south/east from Southern Hudson Bay/Eastern Ontario Province This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery. Note: 850 mb temps near zero degrees C with surface temps of 38-40 degrees along with low enough critical thickness values would be favorable for some snow to mix in with any precipitation that was falling near this upper low over portions of Eastern Canada Today, it's a very chilly airmass for late June, but luckly the heart of the real cold air stayed well to our northeast. An upper level ridge (588 meters) was beginning to push east across the Northern Plains Today with 850 mb temperatures ranging from +20/+32 degrees C This Afternoon across the Rockies and Western High Plains underneath this ridge with temperatures from 85-95 degrees Today from the Rockies east to the Central-Western Dakotas per RUC model analysis.

Tonight:

Mainly clear skies albeit a tad on the hazy/smoky side at times across our local area with low temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s, but some 30s will probably occur one last night in the typical cold spots. Ridge of high pressure will remain over our area Tonight with variable winds under 12 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

High pressure ridge shifts east of our area with a southerly return flow beginning to develop, highs on Wednesday will be in the 60s and 70s with one last day of low humidity levels. Lows Tomorrow Night will be generally in the 50s. Mostly sunny skies are expected on Wednesday with clear-partly cloudy skies Wednesday Night.

Extended Forecast:

Increasing warmth and humidity will be the weather highlights across the Upper Midwest from Thursday into Saturday as a cold front and area of low pressure center themselves over the Northern Plains while high pressure remains anchored to our southeast. A S/SW wind will lock in during the day Thursday and will linger into Saturday the way it looks now.

High temperatures Thursday and Friday will reach the 70s and 80s across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with a few 90s not out of the question Friday or Saturday depending on the amount of sunshine. It will be cooler at the head of Lake Superior and up the North Shore of Lake Superior on Thursday, but any cooling should be confined to areas northeast of Downtown Duluth by Friday and Saturday. Dewpoints will start to increase Thursday with 50s/60s spreading into our local area, with mainly 60s on tap for Friday and Saturday. Low temperatures Thursday Night and Friday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

It should remain dry in our area Thursday and Friday, although a warm front will be moving northeast on Thursday, although with the upper ridge over the area and warming aloft, it doesn't look like any showers or thunderstorms will develop as this warm front moves through. Chances for showers or thunderstorms will be with us this weekend and early next week as a cold front pushes slowly into the Upper Midwest while some low pressure disturbances ride northeast along this boundary. The set-up appears somewhat favorable for periods of heavy rainfall and possibly some severe weather this weekend and early next week, but what area/s are affected is uncertain at this time.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mainly clear with some haze and smoke. Low 41 to 46, a little warmer in Downtown Duluth. Wind north to northeast under 12 mph.

.Wednesday... Mostly sunny. High 68 to 73 but a little cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 50 to 55. Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 73 to 78 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 57 to 62.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 81 to 86.

.Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 62 to 67.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 82 to 87.

Normal High Temperature Today 74 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 52 degrees

Tim

Monday, June 28, 2010

6/28/10: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:09 PM CDT, Monday, June 28th, 2010

30 Day outlook for Duluth, MN...Issued by the Climate Prediction Center on June 17th, 2010:

*July 2010: For Duluth, equal chances for above normal, near normal, or below normal temperatures and precipitation.

90 day outlook for Duluth, MN...Issued by the Climate Prediction Center on June 17th, 2010:

*July through September 2010: For Duluth, equal chances for above normal, near normal, or below normal temperatures and precipitation.

Weather tidbits: Source: NWS Duluth, MN and Chanhassen, MN.

*Unofficial total of 39 tornadoes in Minnesota from June 17th thru the 27th, 2010.

*June 17th, 2010 was initally the most active tornado day in 2010 across the Country with 77 tornado reports in North Dakota, Minnesota, far Northern Iowa, and far Northwest Wisconsin.

*199 severe weather reports across the Chanhassen, MN NWS County warning area from June 17th thru the 26th, prior to this period there were only 23 severe weather reports.

Here are the preliminary tornado numbers from the past few severe weather events that have struck Minnesota...

6/17/10: 20
6/21/10: 5
6/25/10: 7
6/26/10: 7

*The EF-2 tornado in Pine County MN on June 17th, 2010 was the first strong tornado (EF-2/F2) since the Siren, Wisconsin F3 tornado that hit on June 18th, 2001.

*June 17th, 2010 was the first time since June 11th, 2005 with at least 3 tornadoes across the Duluth, MN NWS County warning area.

*Prior to June 17th, 2010, it had been over 5 years since Pine County MN had it's last tornado, dating back to June 11th, 2005.

*The 4 violent tornadoes (EF-4) on June 17th, 2010...3 in Minnesota and 1 in North Dakota was the greatest number of violent tornadoes in any one event since the Super Tuesday Outbreak of February 5th-6th, 2008.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Cooler air was spilling south out of Central Canada and into the Upper Midwest Today as a secondary cold front which moved through last night and early Today settles south into Northern Iowa This Afternoon. Partly-mostly cloudy skies covered our local area Today with high temperatures mainly in the 60s to around 70 degrees while dewpoints have fallen into the 40s with PWS generally around 0.60". Winds Today were out of the north or northwest at 10-20 mph.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

The flow aloft was beginning to amplify Today as a potent upper level low (546 meters) begins it's journey to the south out of the Hudson Bay/Northern Ontario Province area in Canada. Note: Surface temperatures are holding in the 38-40 degree range This Afternoon in Southern Hudson Bay Canada while a rather large area of zero/-2 degree C 850 mb temperatures were pushing south from Ontario Province Canada late Today near this upper low. The airmass coming into Minnesota won't be nearly as cold as what was occurring to our north/northeast Today, but it will still be rather crisp, especially during the Overnight hours.

Tonight through Tuesday Night:

Upper level low will be centered to our north/northeast during this period with a northerly flow aloft continuing to advect cooler air south from Ontario Province and into our local area. 850 mb temperatures which ranged from +6/+8 degrees C in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Afternoon will fall to between zero/+6 degrees C by late Tonight and most of Tuesday. Low temperatures Tonight and Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s to around 50 degrees, but 30s are likely in the typical cold spots...There might even be some patchy frost late Tonight and again late Tomorrow Night in low lying areas, well away from Lake Superior. Partly-mostly cloudy skies This Evening will become clear-partly cloudy later in the night. Mostly sunny skies are expected Tomorrow with mostly clear skies Tomorrow Night. Winds during this period will be out of the north or northwest under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Upper level low will pull farther east and away from our area by mid-week while high pressure initially over the Northern Plains Today heads through the Upper Midwest for Tuesday and Wednesday before exiting to our east by Thursday. Dry weather will continue across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday with highs in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s. Southerly winds will commence later this week which will begin to transport deeper moisture north into the Upper Midwest while a spike in temperatures also occurs. Highs on Thursday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Thursday Night in the 50s and 60s. An area of low pressure and cold front will track east out of the Northern Plains and through the Upper Midwest Saturday and Sunday, this system could bring a few showers or thunderstorms to our area at that time.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 43 to 48, a little warmer closer to Lake Superior. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday... Mostly sunny. High 65 to 70. Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 43 to 48. Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Wednesday... Mostly sunny. High 68 to 73.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 73 to 78 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 57 to 62.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 81 to 86.

Normal High Temperature Today 74 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 52 degrees

Tim

Saturday, June 26, 2010

6/26/10: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:39 PM CDT, Saturday, June 26th, 2010

Note: Preliminary tornado count from Southern Minnesota on Friday, June 25th, 2010: 7, per SPC storm report page.

Note: Updated tornado count from Thursday, June 17th, 2010 per NWS Chanhassen, MN: 20 tornadoes have now been confirmed from June 17th's severe weather outbreak that struck portions of Minnesota. This number could rise a little more in coming days.

Here are some rainfall totals from Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Friday, June 25th, 2010. Source NWS Duluth, MN:

Duluth MN: 0.18"

International Falls MN: 0.16"

Brainerd MN: 1.11"

Grand Marais MN: 0.38"

Hibbing MN: 0.21"

Ashland WI: 0.22"

Northome MN: 0.22"

2 miles South of Tower MN: 0.20"

Embarrass MN: 0.27"

Bruno MN: 0.31"

Floodwood MN: 0.31"

Solon Springs WI: 0.19"

Butternut WI: 0.30"

Upson WI: 0.23"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies prevailed across our area Today with areas of haze and fog...The fog was most common near Lake Superior. Highs Today ranged from the 50s and 60s near Lake Superior with 70s to around 80 degrees elsewhere. Dewpoints Today ranged from the 40s in Northeast Minnesota to the muggier 60s in Western-Southern areas. PWS early This Evening ranged from 0.70"-0.90" in Northeast Minnesota to 1.00"-1.40" elsewhere. Winds Today were out of the south or east generally under 15 mph. Surface map early This Evening featured a stationary front over Northern Iowa with another stationary front across Central Minnesota to Central Wisconsin. A cold front was located over the Eastern Dakotas. Low pressure of 1004 mb was centered in Southern Manitoba Province with a 1002 mb low centered in extreme Southeast South Dakota. High pressure of 1010 mb was centered over Central Lake Superior.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Southwest flow aloft was in place across the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery. Upper level low (564 meters) was tracking east-southeast through Southwest Saskatchewan Province early This Evening with an upper level trough shifting out of the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains.

Tonight:

The low in Southeast South Dakota late Today will head E/NE Tonight while the low over Southern Manitoba Province remains off to our northwest. A warm front with the South Dakota low will shift east-northeast Tonight, but will remain south of our local area. A cold front associated with the Manitoba low will push east during the night and will reach Northcentral Minnesota Overnight. Scattered showers or thunderstorms will be possible throughout Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight, although the greatest risk for heavy rain and severe weather should remain to our south near the deeper instability and moisture. There's still a threat for some locally heavy downpours, however, mainly in Northwest Wisconsin Tonight and possibly into Eastcentral Minnesota. Mostly cloudy skies with areas of haze and fog will be common across our area Tonight with lows in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be out of the south or east under 15 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

Low pressure will be centered to our north and east during this period. A cold front is expected to move through Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Sunday which will then be followed by an upper level trough which will approach from the northwest. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecast on Sunday with a few showers or thunderstorms possible, although severe weather is not expected. Clear-partly cloudy skies will occur Sunday Night with any showers confined to the early Evening hours. Highs Tomorrow will be mainly in the 70s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 40s and 50s. Winds will shift to the west and northwest at 10-25 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

A quiet weather pattern will develop from Monday through Wednesday as an upper level low sets up shop to our northeast while strong high pressure builds south out of Western Hudson Bay Canada. An amplified northerly flow will become estabilished across the Upper Midwest for the early to mid part of next week which will result in cool temperatures, but dry conditions. Highs for Monday and Tuesday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night in the 40s and 50s, it's not even out of the question that some of the typical cold spots drop into the 30s early next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy. Areas of haze and fog. Scattered showers developing, mainly late. Low 50 to 55. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Sunday... Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers early along with areas of haze and fog. Some partial Afternoon clearing with showers or thunderstorms possible. Warmer. High 73 to 78. Wind becoming west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Showers possible early. Low 50 to 55. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday... Mostly sunny. High 65 to 70.

.Monday Night... Mostly clear. Low 45 to 50.

.Tuesday... Mostly sunny. High 63 to 68.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 45 to 50.

.Wednesday... Mostly sunny. High 68 to 73.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 74 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 51 degrees

Tim

Friday, June 25, 2010

June 24th, 2010 Storm Chase Trip





























































































This was our shortest storm chase trip of 2010 (thus far) for Shawn and I as we only had to go northwest out of Duluth by 15 miles or so. A very intense supercell thunderstorm blew up between 2-3 PM CDT Thursday, June 24th, 2010 about 10-15 miles north-northeast of Grand Rapids, Minnesota...Eastcentral Itasca County. This storm tracked southeast and became tornado warned with reports of funnel clouds and wall clouds as it reached Southwest Saint Louis County MN. The severe storm continued on it's southeast track, passing through Saginaw, Adolph, Hermantown, Proctor, Duluth, and Superior between 5:40 PM-6:30 PM CDT Thursday. This storm had an amazing amount of cloud to ground lightning strikes (CG'S) one of the better lightning displays I've seen around Duluth in quite some-time. This storm produced scattered amounts of wind damage in and near the Twin Ports, it also produced quite a bit of hail, generally up to 1.00" in diameter. Rainfall was also extremely heavy with amounts ranging from 0.75"-1.50" in under a half hour's time, which led to some street flooding around the city.
Thanks for reading and enjoy the pictures.
Total mileage on this storm chase: 34.04 miles
Counties covered: Saint Louis
Tim

June 22nd 2010 Storm Chase Trip











































Shawn and I decided to take a trip down to the Moose Lake/Sturgeon Lake Minnesota area's late Tuesday Afternoon June 22nd, 2010 to chase on a Slight Risk day. The atmosphere was plenty unstable on Tuesday with enough warmth and a nice surge of moisture, winds aloft were also on the strong side...The negatives were that temperatures aloft were just warm enough to keep a lid on convection in Northern Pine/Southern Carlton Counties MN (where we were at) until around 8 PM. We sat in the Moose Lake/Sturgeon Lake areas for close to 2 hours watching towers go up, spread out, and dissipate...Meanwhile, the storm of the day was tracking E-SE across portions of Northwest Wisconsin, this storm was supercelluar with quite a few reports of wind and hail damage, this storm even turned into a tornado warning for a time around 8 PM Tuesday Evening. I had a nice view of the severe storm in Northwest Wisconsin (east of our location), and in the other pictures you can see how the anvils would spread downstream thanks to the strong winds in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere.
Total mileage on this chase: 88.66 miles.
Counties covered: Carlton MN and Pine MN.
Thanks for reading and hope you enjoy the pictures.
Tim

6/25/10: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:01 PM CDT, Friday, June 25th, 2010

Weather tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota:

*Monthly precipitation total (thru the 24th) 5.01"
Departure: 1.10" Above Normal.

*Precipitation total since May 1st, 2010 (ending on the 24th of June): 10.96"!
*Rainfall total from May 23rd thru June 24th, 2010: 9.00"!

*Thursday, June 24th, 2010 marked the 8th day this month that has had at least 0.25" of rain and the second day this month with 1.00" or more of rain.

...Scattered severe thunderstorms erupted Thursday Afternoon and Thursday Evening across portions of Northcentral and Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Here are the local storm reports from Thursday, June 24th, 2010 per NWS Duluth, MN.

*3:55 PM CDT 6/24/10: 2 miles South of Calumet MN (Itasca County) 1.00" diameter hail which covered the ground.

*3:58 PM CDT 6/24/10: 2 miles North of Goodland MN (Itasca County) Funnel Cloud. Reported on Highway 65 and County Road 12.

*4:22 PM CDT 6/24/10: 4 miles East of Goodland MN (Saint Louis County) 1.00" diameter hail. Hail and heavy rain reported on Highway 20 just inside Saint Louis County.

*4:56 PM CDT 6/24/10: 2 miles Southwest of Cook MN (Saint Louis County) Funnel Cloud.

*5:00 PM CDT 6/24/10: 3 miles southwest of Cook MN (Saint Louis County) 1.75" diameter hail.

*5:15 PM CDT 6/24/10: Babbitt MN (Saint Louis County) Heavy rain. 1.10" rainfall total in 30 minutes time along with pea size hail.

*5:20 PM CDT 6/24/10: 5 miles South of Pengilly MN (Itasca County) 0.50" diameter hail, accumulated 2.00" deep.

*5:40 PM CDT 6/24/10: Gheen MN (Saint Louis County) Thunderstorm Wind Damage. A healthy 3 foot diameter tree downed by strong winds.

*5:43 PM CDT 6/24/10: 1 mile East of Saginaw MN (Saint Louis County) Thunderstorm Wind Damage. Several trees down in the Little Grand Lake area.

*5:45 PM CDT 6/24/10: 2 miles Southwest of Proctor MN (Saint Louis County) Thunderstorm Wind Damage. A 14 foot aluminum boat on-shore was blown 50 feet and hit a tree. Power was out. Several 6-8" diameter trees down on the East side of Little Grand Lake.

*5:57 PM CDT 6/24/10: 1 mile East of Little Grand Lake MN (Saint Louis County) Thunderstorm Wind Damage. Several 4" diameter brances down.

*6:07 PM CDT 6/24/10: Hermantown MN (Saint Louis County) 0.75" diameter hail.

*6:10 PM CDT 6/24/10: Adolph MN (Saint Louis County) 1.00" diameter hail. Strong winds, small branches flying by.

*6:12 PM CDT 6/24/10: 15 miles North of Grand Rapids MN (Itasca County) Heavy rain. 2.00" of rain fell.

*6:14 PM CDT 6/24/10: Adolph MN (Saint Louis County) Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 2 uprooted trees, 10" in diameter. 12-14 trees snapped in half, 6-8" in diameter. Reported at the Intersection of Morris Thomas and Highway 2. Pea size hail also reported.

*6:16 PM CDT 6/24/10: Proctor MN (Saint Louis County) Thunderstorm Wind Damage. An aluminum flag pole snapped in half by the wind. Pea size hail also reported.

*6:34 PM CDT 6/24/10: Superior WI (Douglas County) 0.75" diameter hail. Hail lasted for 5 minutes.

*7:00 PM CDT 6/24/10: Superior WI (Douglas County) Heavy rain. 1.13" of rain fell in 20 minutes. A small creek behind Wessman Arena was over it's banks.

*7:30 PM CDT 6/24/10: 1 mile South of Lake Nebagamon WI (Douglas County) Thunderstorm Wind Damage. Trees down on a quarter mile stretch on Highway B and in South Lake Nebagamon. Few trees over 12" in diameter snapped off too.

*7:35 PM CDT 6/24/10: Wentworth WI (Douglas County) Heavy rain. 0.90" of rain fell in 20 minutes.

*7:54 PM CDT 6/24/10: Lake Nebagamon WI (Douglas County) Thunderstorm Wind Damage. A 6" diameter tree down along with several small trees down.

*8:25 PM CDT 6/24/10: 3 miles South of Superior WI (Douglas County) Thunderstorm Wind Damage. County Road A near the Nemadji Golf Course, a half dozen 6" diameter trees down.

*8:28 PM CDT 6/24/10: Proctor MN (Saint Louis County) Heavy rain. 0.75" of rain fell in 20 minutes.

*8:56 PM CDT 6/24/10: 3 miles South of Brule WI (Douglas County) Thunderstorm Wind Damage. A 6-7 foot diameter tree snapped off on State Highway 27.

*9:27 CDT 6/24/10: West Duluth MN (Saint Louis County) Heavy rain. 2.25" storm total. 1.50" fell in 20 minutes with the first storm. A second storm dropped 0.75" of rain. Street flooding reported along Grand Ave. and 8th street.

Here are some rainfall totals around Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Wednesday, June 23rd, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: 0.16"

Ashland WI: 0.65"

Hayward WI: 0.12"

Bruno MN: 0.16"

3 miles West of Floodwood MN: 0.26"

3 miles South of Ashland WI: 0.82"

Butternut WI: 1.29"

4 miles West of Clam Lake WI: 0.70"

Madeline Island WI: 0.79"

Sarona WI: 0.32"

Solon Springs WI: 0.25"

Upson WI: 0.43"

5 miles Northwest of Washburn WI: 0.20"

9 miles Northwest of Webster WI: 0.24"

Rainfall totals across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Thursday, June 24th 2010. Source: NWS Duluth MN.

Duluth MN: 1.10"

International Falls MN: 0.13"

Hibbing MN: 0.32"

Ashland WI: 0.78"

Cass Lake MN: 1.07"

Cook MN: 0.42"

Northome MN: 0.67"

2 miles South of Tower MN: 0.40"

Embarrass MN: 0.44"

Littlefork MN: 0.70"

4 miles East of Island Lake MN: 0.66"

Dixon Lake MN: 0.91"

Floodwood MN: 1.14"

3 miles East of Orr MN: 0.42"

5 miles Northwest of Washburn WI: 0.34"

Upson WI: 0.85"

Gurney WI: 0.85"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

It's a pretty complicated surface map Today with several different boundaries in place. One such surface front was draped over Northcentral Minnesota and far Northern Wisconsin late Today, instability has increased This Afternoon near this front, but nothing more then a few light showers or sprinkles have been forming over Northern-Northeast Minnesota This Afternoon. There have been a few heavier showers and isolated thunderstorms that have tracked east-southeast through parts of Northwestern Wisconsin This Afternoon, but none of those storms have been severe. A seperate boundary was centered in Southern Minnesota late Today, and this boundary has even more instability and moisture to work with then the one up north...Scattered supercells have erupted late This Afternoon between Saint Cloud and Elk River back toward the Willmar and Granite Falls area in Central Minnesota, or generally along and southwest of Interstate 94. Low pressure of 1008 mb was centered in Eastern South Dakota with another 1008 mb low centered in Southern North Dakota. Mostly cloudy-partly sunny skies covered our local area Today with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s while middle to upper 80s covered parts of Southwest-Southern Minnesota Today. Dewpoints across our local area were in the 50s and 60s Today with late day PWS of 1.00"-1.60" with 850 mb td's of +10/+14 degrees C!

Today's 500 mb analysis:

A corridor of fast winds aloft ( 60 knots) covered portions of the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest Today in a near zonal (west to east flow) per RUC model analysis. An upper level trough covered the Western U.S. while a broad hot ridge of upper level high pressure covered the Central-Southern Plains.

Tonight:

Note: *Flash Flood Watch* is in effect through Saturday Afternoon for the following Counties: In Minnesota: Pine. In Wisconsin: Douglas...Burnett...Bayfield...Washburn...Sawyer...Ashland...Iron...And Price...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin before Midnight. Due to the abundant moisture in place, a few of these storms could contain very heavy downpours which may lead to some localized flooding. The severe threat has diminished, but still can't be ruled out...Mainly in Northwestern Wisconsin, including the Counties of Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer, and Price. Large hail to 1.00" in diameter and wind gusts approaching 60 mph are the main threats if severe weather develops This Evening. The Overnight hours look dry at this time for most areas, but a few lingering showers or thunderstorms are possible in Northwestern Wisconsin. Lows Tonight will be in the 50s and 60s with partly-mostly cloudy skies along with areas of fog. Winds Tonight will be out of the south, north, or east under 15 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

A stationary front will remain well to our south during this period while the disturbance passing through the Upper Midwest exits to our east by late Tonight, but a second disturbance and area of low pressure are expected to move from the Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest by Saturday Night. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies are expected on Saturday with areas of fog possible, especially near Lake Superior. A few showers or thunderstorms could also occur at times in Western-Southern areas. Scattered showers or thunderstorms will remain a possibility Tomorrow Night across our area with mostly cloudy skies along with areas of fog. Severe weather chances look fairly low across our area Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night. Heavy rainfall seems to be a bigger concern if convection can develop. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s near Lake Superior with 60s and 70s elsewhere, a few locales in Southwest areas could reach the 80s. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s and 60s. Winds during this period will be out of the south or east under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure is forecast to move off to our east on Sunday while an upper level trough drops south into Northern Minnesota. A few showers are possible across our on Sunday with highs mainly in the 70s. A pattern change looks likely from Sunday Night through the middle of next week as an amplified northerly 500 mb flow locks in with an upper level low over Eastern Ontario Province while strong high pressure builds south out of Northwest Ontario-Hudson Bay Canada. A period of dry weather is expected for the Upper Midwest from next Monday through next Wednesday due to this pattern change.

Low temperatures Sunday Night and Monday Night will be in the 40s and 50s with highs on Monday in the 60s and 70s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy with areas of fog. A few showers possible This Evening. Low 50 to 55. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday... Considerable cloudiness. Areas of fog. High 61 to 66 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 50 to 55. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday... Showers possible, otherwise variable cloudiness. High 68 to 73. Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night... Decreasing cloudiness. Low 50 to 55.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 65 to 70.

.Monday Night... Mostly clear. Low 45 to 50.

.Tuesday... Mostly sunny. High 63 to 68.

Normal High Temperature Today 73 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 51 degrees

Tim

Thursday, June 24, 2010

6/24/10: UPDATE

No weatherblog Today, heading out to chase the supercells heading SE out of Northcentral MN...Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 PM CDT This Evening for Duluth, also includes Carlton, St. Louis Counties, as well as Aitkin, Crow Wing, Cass, Itasca, and Koochiching Counties MN...

*Slight Risk* for severe thunderstorms covers our local area for Friday and Friday Evening as well.

Stay safe everyone.

Tim

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

6/23/10: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:35 PM CDT, Wednesday, June 23rd, 2010

...All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota...

*FLOOD ADVISORY*

A Flood Advisory is in effect until 7:15 PM CDT This Evening for Southcentral Sawyer County in Northwest Wisconsin. Sawyer County Sheriff and other officials reported that the Price Dam of the Burnet River including Winter Lake was at capacity due to heavy rainfall over the past few days. Townships that may be affected include: Winter, Radisson, Meadowbrook, and Weirgor. Roads that may be affected include: County Highway W. State Highway 27 and County Highway D. Secondary roads that may be affected include: Dantzman Road and West Pasanen Road.

Isolated severe thunderstorms erupted late Tuesday Afternoon and early Tuesday Evening over portions of Northwestern Wisconsin...Here are the storm reports per NWS Duluth, MN.

*6:32 PM CDT 6/22/10: 2 miles North of Hawthorne, WI: Douglas County. 1.00" diameter hail

*7:31 PM CDT 6/22/10: 14 miles East-Northeast Solon Springs, WI: Bayfield County. 0.88" diameter hail. Up to nickel sized hail with estimated winds of 30-40 mph.

*7:34 PM CDT 6/22/10: 2 miles North-Northeast of Upper Eau Claire: Bayfield County. Thunderstorm wind gust to 60 mph (estimated)

*7:48 PM CDT 6/22/10: 6 miles Southwest of Drummond, WI: Bayfield County. Thunderstorm wind damage...Trees down across Tri Lakes Road, Southwest of Drummond.

*7:51 PM CDT 6/22/10: Drummond, WI: Bayfield County. 1.00" diameter hail.

*8:12 PM CDT 6/22/10: 9 miles Southeast of Drummond, WI: Bayfield County. 1.75" diameter hail.

*8:16 PM CDT 6/22/10: Namekagon, WI: Bayfield County. 1.75" diameter hail. Started out as penny sized hail, increased to golfball sized hail.

*8:21 PM CDT 6/22/10: 7 miles East of Cable, WI: Bayfield County. Funnel cloud. A persistent funnel cloud reported.

*8:22 PM CDT 6/22/10: 2 miles West of Namekagon, WI: Bayfield County. 1.25" diameter hail along with very strong winds per report from the Garmisch Resort.

*8:23 PM CDT 6/22/10: Namekagon, WI: Bayfield County. 1.25" diameter hail. Half-dollar sized hail covering the ground.

*8:34 PM CDT 6/22/10: Clam Lake, WI: Ashland County. 0.88" diameter hail and high winds.

*8:39 PM CDT 6/22/10: 3 miles West of Clam Lake, WI: Ashland County. 1.00" diameter hail reported near Lake five.

*8:40 PM CDT 6/22/10: 1 mile Southwest of Clam Lake, WI: Sawyer County. Thunderstorm wind damage. 2-2.5 foot diameter trees blown down.

*8:41 PM CDT 6/22/10: 1 mile South of Clam Lake, WI: Ashland County. 1.00" diameter hail.

*9:33 PM CDT 6/22/10: 8 miles North of Park Falls, WI: Ashland County. Funnel cloud. Rotating wall cloud with a funnel that went down briefly and then lifted back into the cloud.

Here are some rainfall totals from Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Tuesday and Tuesday Night. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Phillips WI: 3.69". Water was reported to be covering Raske Road and Highway 13.

Gordon WI: 1.91"

Winter WI: 3.96"

Webster WI: 2.26"

Gurney WI: 1.76"

High Bridge DOT: 1.06"

Sarona WI: 0.65"

Upson WI: 0.88"

Solon Springs WI: 0.52"

Hayward WI: 0.24"

Ashland WI: 0.11"

Bruno MN: 0.55"

A surge of very warm air pushed north into portions of Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: 86 degrees, downtown areas were in the upper 50s/60s.

Brainerd MN: 88 degrees

Pine River MN: 84 degrees

Aitkin MN: 86 degrees

Cloquet MN: 84 degrees

McGregor MN: 86 degrees

Hayward WI: 87 degrees

Siren WI: 87 degrees

Phillips WI: 88 degrees

Bruno MN: 87 degrees

Hinckley MN: 85 degrees

Gordon WI: 89 degrees

Solon Springs WI: 88 degrees

Winter WI: 86 degrees

Butternut WI: 88 degrees

Upson WI: 86 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A large complex of rain and thunderstorms erupted late last night/early This Morning across Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota. Some of those storms turned severe early This Morning with very heavy rainfall also reported which has led to some flooding. Rainfall estimates per Duluth Doppler Radar indicate that the heaviest corridor of rain from this large thunderstorm complex affected areas from Pine City MN through areas south of a line from Superior to Poplar to Washburn in Northwest Wisconsin...Rain totals from Pine City, and south of those above mentioned Cities in Wisconsin ranged from 1.00"-3.00", but isolated pockets of 4.00"-6+" may have fallen based on doppler radar. Those thunderstorms remained south of Duluth/Superior, but one heck of a lightning show was visible in the southeastern sky early This Morning.

An unsettled, humid day with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms across Northern/Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today as a strong upper level disturbance/upper trough associated with some cold air aloft head east through Minnesota. Precipitation Today was moving in two different directions...The showers in Northern Minnesota have been dropping S/SE, while the showers in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin have been moving E/NE! Due to the extensive cloud-cover Today, instability has been kept down with Afternoon CAPES generally under 1000 j/kg with Lifted Indices of +2/-5 degrees C. High temperatures Today were in the middle 60s to middle 70s with dewpoints holding in the 55-65 degree range while Afternoon PWS were in the 1.00"-1.40" range with 850 mb td's of +8/+12 degrees.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

(594 meter) upper level ridge covered the Southern tier of the U.S. A vigorous upper trough/disturbance was moving quickly toward the east through the Upper Midwest/Western Great Lakes. Strong upper level winds of 70-90 knots covered portions of the Upper Midwest and Central-Northern Great Lakes Today per RUC model analysis.

Tonight:

The strong disturbance over Minnesota This Afternoon will exit off to our east Tonight. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will end between 8PM-11PM, dry conditions will then take place Overnight along with areas of fog. Partly-mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 50s can be expected Tonight with some 40s in the typical cold spots. Winds Tonight will be out of the north or west under 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

An area of high pressure will move quickly east through the Upper Midwest on Thursday before exiting to our east Thursday Night. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecast during this period with a few showers or thunderstorms possible from Thursday Afternoon through Thursday Night, mainly affecting the Northern half of Minnesota...Or north of a line from Backus to Duluth. Instability looks fairly limited during this period thus no severe weather is expected. Highs Tomorrow will be mainly in the 70s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 50s to lower 60s. Winds will be out of the north, south, or west under 15 mph Tomorrow and from the south under 15 mph Tomorrow Night.

Extended Forecast:

Another period of unsettled weather is shaping up for Friday through Sunday, but there are quite a few details that need to be worked out with the models during the next day or so which pertains to what area/s will have the greatest chance for heavy rain/possible flooding, and also in regards to the severe thunderstorm threat. The forecast models are not in very good agreement Today on where the warm front/stationary front will set-up, and this will be a major player in determining where the heavy rain/severe weather threat will be, and also will determine whether or not the weekend will be cold and foggy near Lake Superior or if the marine layer will be less of an issue.

Note: The Storm Prediction Center has portions of our area, mainly west of a line from Northome to Duluth Minnesota into far Northwest Wisconsin in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Friday and Friday Night.

High temperatures on Friday will be in the 60s and 70s, but some 80s are possible depending on the amount of sunshine and the timing of the rain. Lows Friday Night will be in the 50s and 60s. Saturday's high temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s, but 80s or even 90s could sneak up into Southern areas, while locations near Lake Superior could hold in the 50s! Lows Saturday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

Looking ahead into next week has seen a flip-flop of sorts with the long range models. The GFS model which had the more amplified/cooler solution for our area next week has become more progressive with any cooling confined to early-possibly mid part of next week. The EUROPEAN model has now trended toward Tuesday's GFS model with much cooler temperatures as a cut-off low develops to our east leading to a much more amplified northerly flow affecting the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes for most of next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Scattered showers through 10 PM under mostly cloudy skies. Becoming partly cloudy late with areas of fog developing. Low 50 to 55. Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Areas of fog early. Partly to mostly sunny. High 73 to 78. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 53 to 58. Wind south at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday... Showers or thunderstorms possible at times. Mostly cloudy. High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 40%.

.Friday Night... Showers or thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Chance of rain 60%.

.Saturday... Areas of fog. Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 50 to 55. Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 60 to 65. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 73 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 50 degrees

Tim

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

6/22/10: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:08 PM CDT, Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010

...Another tornado reported from last Thursday, June 17th, 2010... Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

*At 8:05 PM CDT 6/17/10, the public reported a brief tornado touch down near Moose Willow State Wildlife Management Area, 1 mile North-Northeast of Haypoint, Minnesota...Aitkin County.

Zero days above 80 degrees at International Falls, Minnesota for the month of June...Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

*Through June 22nd, 2010 there have been zero days with a maximum temperature of at least 80 degrees at International Falls, MN. If the remainder of June 2010 fails to have at least 1 day at or above 80 degrees, then it will tie with 1947, 1982, and 1985 in year's that have failed to produce at least one day with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees.

June 2010 temperature stats for Duluth, MN:

*Number of days with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees: 6, ending on the 22nd. June 2009 produced 11 days with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees.

*Number of days with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees: 2, ending on the 22nd. June 2009 produced 6 days with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees.

Precipitation information:

*The period from May 23rd through June 21st, 2010 has had 7.67" of rain at the Duluth Airport. To put that into perspective: Our average precipitation total for April and May combined is just 5.04", which means that we've had more rain in about a month's time then what we typically see in a two month period!

Here are some rainfall totals across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Monday, June 21st, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: 0.38"

International Falls MN: 0.25"

Hibbing MN: 0.64"

Ashland WI: 1.22"

Hayward WI: 0.79"

Northome MN: 1.09"

3 miles East of Orr MN: 1.08"

9 miles North of Bayfield WI: 1.30"

5 miles Northwest of Washburn WI: 1.57"

Madeline Island WI: 1.31"

Brule WI: 1.82"

Phillips WI: 1.84"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A foggy start for some parts of our area gave way to partly cloudy-mostly sunny skies by mid-Morning with skies This Afternoon varying between partly sunny in Northern Minnesota to sunny in Northwest Wisconsin/Eastern Minnesota. High temperatures Today ranged from the 60s and lower 70s from Superior and Downtown Duluth and along the North Shore of Lake Superior with upper 70s to middle 80s for the remainder of our area. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +14/+18 degrees C with 850 mb td's of +8/+13 degrees C in Western areas. Dewpoints This Afternoon were running mostly in the 60s with PWS of 1.00"-1.40"! It's been a dry day in terms of any precipitation around our area, but the atmosphere has become quite unstable This Afternoon with latest meso-analysis indicating CAPES of 1000-2000 j/kg across most of our local area along with Lifted Indices of -3/-9 degrees C from northeast to southwest. Lapse Rates were also very steep and ranged from 7.0-7.5 c/km. A few showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop during the past hour near Lake Mille Lacs in Eastcentral Minnesota while another rather vigorous looking thunderstorm drops S/SE out of Southern Ontario Province toward International Falls MN late Today. Surface map as of 3 PM features a trough/cold front across Western Minnesota with some sort of a warm front (moisture gradient type feature) from about Interstate 94 in Central Minnesota while a stationary front was located over the Central Plains.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Southwest flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest Today. Three disturbances were visibile on water vapor satellite imagery. The first was pulling off to the E/NE as it tracks through Southern Ontario Province... The second was an upper level low (570 meters) across Southeast Saskatchewan-Southern Manitoba Province in Canada with movement toward the east. The third was an upper level low (576 meters) which was moving E/SE through Western Montana-Southern Idaho-far Western Wyoming. An upper level trough was advancing south/east out of Southwest Canada and the Pacific Northwest-Northcentral Rockies Today a 90-100 knot jet streak pushing northeast out of the Western High Plains late Today per RUC model analysis.

Tonight:

The main concern at least for This Evening will be the extent of any severe weather...

Things appear to be coming together for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms This Evening across Northern/Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with a few severe thunderstorms likely as well, the main corridor for this possible severe weather seems to be setting up along and west of a line from International Falls and Hibbing southeast to the Twin Ports and then into Northwest Wisconsin generally from Port Wing to Park Falls. Large hail and damaging winds appear to be the greatest threat, although an isolated tornado risk is also possible through mid-Evening, generally around the I94 corridor in Central Minnesota, possibly as far north as Crow Wing, Aitkin, and Pine Counties in Minnesota. The low level jet isn't the best, but 15-30 knots is enough when combined with 0-1 KM and 0-3 KM SRH of around 150 m2/2 and the ample instability and shear and the stronger mid/upper level winds in place to promote an isolated risk for tornadoes and supercells.

It appears that Northern Minnesota will dry out Overnight while a risk for a few more showers and thunderstorms will continue in parts of Northwest Wisconsin and perhaps Eastcentral Minnesota.

Lows Tonight under partly-mostly cloudy skies will be in the 50s and 60s with winds out of the south, north, or east under 15 mph. Areas of fog could develop once again later in the night.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

A cold front which was in the process of developing This Afternoon in Western Minnesota will push south/east Tonight, likely reach Northwest Wisconsin/Eastern Minnesota Tomorrow Morning before exiting to our south/east Tomorrow Afternoon. Some cold air aloft moving in behind this boundary along with it's upper level trough could result in the development of a few showers or thunderstorms in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tomorrow and early Tomorrow Night. Small hail and gusty winds could occur in any stronger storm that develops, but severe weather is not expected at this time. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 50s. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecast during this period with winds out of the north or west at 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

High pressure will push through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest from Wednesday Night into Thursday, this high will then exit to our east by late Thursday as low pressure takes shape over the Rockies. This low combined with a warm front and cold front will move northeast into the Upper Midwest from Friday through the weekend which will result in the potential for some more showers or thunderstorms at times across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. A few of these storms could become severe either Friday or Saturday the way it looks now. High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s Friday and Saturday, but it will be cooler near Lake Superior. Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

It appears that some sort of pattern shift may take place the early to mid part of next week, but for how long (if it does change) is uncertain at the moment. The GFS model has been the most amplified solution for next week with a sharper northerly 500 mb flow affecting the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes resulting in cool temperatures. The EUROPEAN model is much less amplified with only a brief shift in the upper level pattern early next week before a W/SW flow aloft becomes established once again around the middle or end of next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Humid. Variable cloudiness with areas of fog which could be dense at times. A few showers or thunderstorms possible This Evening. Low 55 to 60. Wind south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph becoming north. East winds at 5 to 15 mph closer to Lake Superior becoming north.

.Wednesday... Variable cloudiness. A few showers or thunderstorms possible. High 71 to 76. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday Night... A few showers or thunderstorms possible early, otherwise partly cloudy. Low 52 to 57. Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 72 to 77.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Friday... Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. Low 55 to 60. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. High 68 to 73 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 30%.

Normal High Temperature Today 73 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 50 degrees

Tim

6/22/10: SEVERE POTENTIAL

Issued at 12:19 PM CDT, Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010

...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...

Timing:
*4:00 PM until 11:00 PM CDT.

Main hazards:
*Damaging winds an excess of 60 mph
*Large hail at or greater than 1.00" in diameter
*Locally heavy rain and dangerous lightning

Discussion:

A cold front will settle south/east out of Northwest Minnesota This Afternoon and Tonight. A warm, moist, and unstable airmass was in place out ahead of this front and this should lead to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms This Afternoon and Tonight across our area... A few of these storms could turn severe especially late This Afternoon and Evening thanks to strong winds in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere along with some decent wind shear.

Although the majority of our area is under a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms This Afternoon and Evening, it appears that the best chance for possible severe weather would be along and west of a line from International Falls and Hibbing through Duluth/Superior down through Cable, and Phillips in Northwest Wisconsin. Other Cities that could be impacted are: Northome MN...Bigfork MN...Grand Rapids MN...Walker MN...Cass Lake MN...Backus MN...Brainerd MN...Hill City MN...Aitkin MN...McGrath MN...Pine City MN...Hinckley MN...Moose Lake MN...Cromwell MN...Cloquet MN...Grantsburg WI...Siren WI...Port Wing WI...Minong WI...Spooner WI...And Hayward.

Make sure to keep up to date with the latest weather information throughout the day...Listen for possible watches or warnings that may be issued by the National Weather Service.

Tim

Monday, June 21, 2010

6/21/10: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:44 PM CDT, Monday, June 21st, 2010

...Updated information on last Thursday's tornado outbreak in Minnesota... Source, NWS Duluth MN, Grand Forks ND, and Chanhassen MN...

*17 confirmed tornadoes in Minnesota on 6/17/10...This number could rise in coming days.

*3 of the tornadoes were rated EF4
*4 of the tornadoes were rated EF3
*2 of the tornadoes were rated EF2
*5 of the tornadoes were rated EF1
*3 of the tornadoes were rated EF0

*The last EF4 tornado prior to last Thursday occurred in Ohio on June 5th, 2010.

*Otter Tail County tornado information: EF4 with estimated winds to 175 mph. Track length: 36 miles!

*Wadena County tornado information: EF4 with estimated winds to 170 mph. Track length: 10 miles!

*EF2 tornado confirmed in far Southeast Pine County in Eastern Minnesota last Thursday. The NWS in Duluth has upped the previous EF0-EF1 tornado rating to an EF2 for a portion of far Southeast Pine County in Eastern Minnesota with estimated winds of 110-135 mph!

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 1008 mb was centered over Eastern North Dakota (W/SW of Grand Forks) This Afternoon. A trough extended southeast of this low through the Northern half of Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin. Some instability and increasing amounts of moisture led to the development of showers and thunderstorms Today in parts of Northern, Northeast, and Eastern Minnesota as well as most of Northwest Wisconsin. Heavy rain and dangerous lightning strikes have been occurring with these storms with isolated severe thunderstorms developing late Today in parts of Northern/Eastern Minnesota. Some of the strongest thunderstorm activity This Afternoon has been affecting portions of Northwestern Wisconsin with hourly rainfall rates per doppler radar of 1.00"-1.50"! Partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies were found across our local area Today with high temperatures generally in the 70s which dropped into the 60s in areas that have seen rain...A few locales are into the lower 80s late Today around the Brainerd/Aitkin areas. Dewpoints Today have climbed into the 60s away from far Northeast Minnesota while Afternoon PWS ranged from 1.00"-1.60"!

Today's 500 mb analysis:

W/SW flow aloft continued across the Upper Midwest Today. Upper level low (570 meters) covered portions of the Northern Rockies, Pacific Northwest, and Southwestern Canada. Two upper level disturbances were heading E/NE through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery, out ahead of that 500 mb low to our west.

Tonight:

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue This Evening in Northwest Wisconsin and in portions of Northern/Eastern Minnesota. Locally heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning strikes will be the main hazards out of these storms This Evening, but there is also an isolated risk for severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds in Western areas, mainly in Koochiching and Itasca Counties Minnesota. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found across our area Tonight with areas of fog late. Isolated showers or thunderstorms could continue Overnight, mainly across Northcentral Minnesota as a low level jet increases to around 25 knots later in the night in Central-Northern Minnesota. Lows Tonight will be in the 50s to lower 60s with winds out of the south or east under 15 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

The surface trough which was over the Northern half of Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin This Afternoon will head north Tonight while the main stationary front which has been over the Northern parts of the Central Plains the past few days starts to lift north as a warm front, likely reaching Southcentral areas of Minnesota during this period.

The atmosphere across our area will become rather unstable Tomorrow Afternoon and Evening with models showing CAPES of 1000-2000 j/kg with Lifted Indices ranging from -2/-5 degrees C. Low level jet looks very weak however, but the mid/upper level winds look rather strong. There will also be a change of wind direction with height with S/SW winds at 850 mb veering more westerly at 500 mb.

There is a risk for a few showers and thunderstorms Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night in our area, but the overall severe threat looks limited at this time due mainly to the very weak or non-existent low level jet, but this could be off-set a bit by the strong instability and the 30-40 knots of SHEAR that is being forecast by the models. Damaging winds and possibly some large hail appear to the main threat if severe weather does develop Tomorrow Afternoon and Evening. Heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning strikes will also occur. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are expected during this period with highs Tomorrow in the 70s and 80s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 50s and 60s.

Note: All but far Northeast Minnesota is in a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night per SPC 12:30 PM update.

Extended Forecast:

An upper level trough and cold front will push south/east through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday...Some showers or thunderstorms could occur across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday as this system moves through. It looks like things will dry out from Wednesday Night through Thursday Night, then a southwest flow aloft will kick back in late this week and possibly into the weekend and this combined with low pressure, a warm front and cold front, along with increasing amounts of moisture and instability could go on to trigger more scattered showers and thunderstorms and possibly some severe weather across the Upper Midwest for Friday and Saturday, possibly even into Sunday.

High temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday will be mainly in the 70s with lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night in the 50s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... A few showers or thunderstorms possible This Evening. Areas of fog. Mostly cloudy with some clearing late. Low 51 to 56. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday... Humid. Warmer. Partly to mostly sunny. Afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible. Areas of fog early. High 76 to 81 but it could be cooler at times closer to Lake Superior. Wind south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. Low 55 to 60. Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday... Showers or thunderstorms possible, partly sunny. High 73 to 78. Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday Night... Becoming partly cloudy. Low 52 to 57.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 72 to 77.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Friday... Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 72 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 50 degrees

Tim

Sunday, June 20, 2010

6/20/10: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 8:43 PM CDT, Sunday, June 20th, 2010

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Partly-mostly sunny skies prevailed Today across our area with some spotty showers affecting portions of Northcentral Minnesota. Highs Today were in the 70s to lower 80s with 850 mb temperatures as of 7 PM ranging from +14/+15 degrees C. Winds Today were variable or calm. Surface map early This Evening featured high pressure of 1020 mb centered over Central Lake Michigan. A stationary front extended from Central Wyoming to Northern Kansas.

This Evening's 500 mb analysis:

Upper level low (570 meters) covered the Pacific Northwest per RUC model analysis. A westerly flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest Today out ahead of this upper low. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms have been erupting Today in a very unstable environment which extended from the Northern Rockies and Western High Plains down through portions of the Central Plains.

Tonight:

Partly-mostly cloudy skies will prevail across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight as high pressure remains to our southeast while a stationary front continues to sit well to our west and south. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to develop through the night from the Dakotas and Nebraska with movement toward the E/SE. The majority of this activity is expected to stay southwest/south of our area Tonight, but a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm could develop at times mainly in Western-Northern areas. Lows Tonight will be mainly in the 50s to around 60 degrees, but a few 40s are possible in the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Winds Tonight will be variable or south/east in direction under 15 mph.

Monday and Monday Night:

Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found across our area during this period with scattered showers or thunderstorms possible as a somewhat more unstable and moist airmass spreads north into our area. Dewpoints are expected to reach the upper 50s-mid 60s by Monday Afternoon with 850 mb td's of +8/+12 degrees C while PWS increase to between 1.00"-1.25". The latest set of forecast models indicate that CAPES by Monday Afternoon will range from 1000-to around 1500 j/kg while Lifted Indices fall to between -1/-4 degrees C. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR and EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR values are forecast to be around 30-35 knots per 15z SREF model. An isolated risk for severe thunderstorms will exist Monday Afternoon/Monday Evening over portions of Northcentral-Eastcentral Minnesota and far Northwest Wisconsin if the instability does develop...Areas that would be affected would generally be along and south of Highway 2 in Minnesota, including the Interstate 35 corridor, and west of Highway 53 in Northwestern Wisconsin. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats if any storm does turn severe. Locally heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning strikes will also occur in any thunderstorm. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s to lower 80s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees. Winds during this period will be out of the south, east, or west at 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

An upper level trough and cold front are expected to advance south/east out of the Northern Plains and through the Upper Midwest from late Tuesday into Wednesday. This system could bring some more showers or thunderstorms to our area sometime Tuesday or Wednesday...The forecast models Today are in disagreement on the timing of this system, so things may change as to what day will hold the greater risk for rain. High temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 70s to lower 80s across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with lows Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night in the 50s to around 60 degrees.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly cloudy. Low 53 to 58. Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday... More humid. Variable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 71 to 76 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Monday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible, mainly during the Evening. Variable cloudiness. Low 55 to 60. Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 73 to 78. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly sunny. High 73 to 78. Chance of rain 20%.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 52 to 57.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 72 to 77.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 72 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 50 degrees

Tim

Saturday, June 19, 2010

6/19/10: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:38 PM CDT, Saturday, June 19th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 1992... A record low temperature of 34 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

EF-0/EF-1 Tornado confirmed on Thursday, June 17th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

The National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota has confimed that an EF-0 to EF-1 tornado occurred at 8:55 PM CDT, Thursday, June 17th, 2010 in parts of Pine County Minnesota and Burnett County in Northwest Wisconsin. The tornado occurred in a portion of the Saint Croix River Valley...Between Rush City Minnesota and Grantsburg Wisconsin. At 8:55 PM CDT, local law enforcement reported a tornado on the ground over Southeast Pine County Minnesota or 5 miles Southwest of Grantsburg Wisconsin. Trained weather spotters and storm chasers reported extensive storm damage due to the tornado. The tornado tracked northeast along the Saint Croix River Valley along the Minnesota/Wisconsin state line, mainly affecting recreational land, but residents between Rush City and Rock Creek Minnesota and from Grantsburg to Yellow Lake in Wisconsin were impacted. The worst of the damage was over far Southeastern Pine County Minnesota where the tornado was rated as a strong EF-1 with estimated winds to 110 mph! Multiple homes sustained significant property damage. 2 injuries were also reported at a residence with a mobile home on the north side of Highway 70, 1/2 mile west of the Saint Croix Bridge in far Southeastern Pine County Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A stationary front was centered along the Ontario/Minnesota border to Northern Lake Superior late Today while the potent area of low pressure which was off to our northwest/north on Friday moves into Northern Quebec Province Today. Winds were rather gusty through This Morning, but wind speeds have relaxed quite a bit around our area This Afternoon with west or north winds generally under 20 mph. Clouds were pretty extensive Today across our area with some spotty light sprinkles at times, mainly over Northeast Minnesota. High temperatures Today were in the middle 60s to lower 70s with a few locales in far Northern Minnesota holding in the lower 60s. 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +9/+12 degrees C.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

W/SW flow aloft was in place Today over the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis. Strong upper level disturbance was moving rapidly toward the east as it passes to the north of Lake Superior Today. An upper level low (564 meters) west centered in Western Oregon Today per RUC model analysis with a slow track toward the south/east. An upper level ridge (594 meters) was in place over portions of the Central-Southern Plains Today per RUC model analysis.

Tonight:

An area of high pressure averaging 1018 mb will move from the Central Dakotas into the Upper Midwest Tonight. Partly-mostly cloudy skies can be expected in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with brief sprinkles ending early in Northeast Minnesota. Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with winds out of the north or west under 15 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

High pressure will head east and away from our area during this period while a stationary front sits well to our south. Partly-mostly sunny skies are expected across our area on Sunday with highs mainly in the 70s, but it may be cooler at times closer to Lake Superior. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tomorrow Night with lows mainly in the 50s. Scattered showers or thunderstorms will develop at times near the boundary to our south, but right now it appears that this activity will remain to our south. Winds during this period will be out of the south, west, or east around 15 mph or less.

Extended Forecast:

Monday through Tuesday Night will continue to feature a frontal boundary to our south while some disturbances track east out of the Northern Plains. The potential does exist for some bouts of showers or thunderstorms in portions of our area early next week. Severe weather chances will hinge upon how far north that boundary in Iowa can get, as well as the amount of instability that can develop this far north. The 12z GFS model from Today shows strong instability developing across Northwest Wisconsin and Northern-Eastern Minnesota on Tuesday, but the 12z NAM-WRF model keeps the bulk of this instability farther south. It looks like will have a period of calmer weather around the middle of next week, but by late next or next weekend things could become somewhat active once again.

High temperatures for Monday and Tuesday will be mainly in the 70s with a few 80s also possible. Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s. Daytime highs could be cooler near Lake Superior both Monday and Tuesday.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Considerable cloudiness early with skies becoming partly cloudy late. Low 50 to 55. Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 71 to 76 but it could turn cooler at times closer to Lake Superior. Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 52 to 57. Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. High 68 to 73 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. Low 55 to 60. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. Low 55 to 60. Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday... Partly sunny. High 73 to 78.

Normal High Temperature Today 72 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 49 degrees

Tim

Thursday June 17th, 2010: Storm Chase Trip
























































































































































Issued at 1:43 PM CDT, Saturday, June 19th, 2010
...Thursday, June 17th, 2010 ended up being a major severe weather and tornado outbreak across portions of Minnesota, as well as near-by states of North Dakota, Iowa, and Northwest Wisconsin... The forecast models did an amazing job the few days prior to this event with just the usual slight timing differences noted between the forecast models. Local National Weather Service Office's at Duluth, MN, Chanhassen, MN, and Grand Forks, ND also did a great job on Thursday in issuing timely warnings and watches.
Shawn and I targeted Central and Eastern Minnesota on Thursday. Our trip began shortly after 12:00 PM CDT Thursday as we left Duluth, Minnesota southbound on I35. Our initial target city was Brainerd, Minnesota...110.07 miles to our southwest. We arrived at Brainerd, MN around 2:30 PM CDT and I grabbed a quick bite to eat at a local Mc Donalds. The first tornadic supercells of the day were exploding toward the Alexandria, MN area out in the Western part of the state. We decided to drop south a little more to a city called Little Falls, MN which is 31.76 miles south of Brainerd, MN. The problem with those initial tornadic supercells was that they were lifting more north then east...This is somewhat unusual, because most tornadic supercells will veer to the right (or to the east), this wasn't the case on Thursday, as a result we missed out on those initial supercells and tornadoes.
We were sort of stuck near Little Falls, MN watching supercells and tornadoes pass by to our northwest while other supercells and tornadoes were beginning to explode to our south. We figured we would never have caught the stuff to our northwest, so we decided to intercept the supercells heading NE out of Central MN. We left Little Falls and traveled to Pierz MN, 13.33 miles to the east...Then from Pierz we went down to Milaca (37.31 miles), then to Mora which was an additional 21.46 miles. Prior to Milaca, MN, we did see a few supercells but the majority of them were producing very heavy rain and lightning with little if any hail and wind, no wall clouds were observed either.
The supercell that tracked northeast to Milaca, MN early Thursday Evening between 6:30PM-6:45PM CDT was the best storm we had of the day with a well developed wall cloud, but no tornado...However, this supercell had a confirmed report of a tornado 10 miles southwest of Milaca, MN per NWS Chanhassen warning statement.

Total mileage on this chase trip: 607.74 miles.

Counties covered: Carlton MN, Aitkin MN, Crow Wing MN, Morrison MN, Mille Lacs MN, Kanabec MN, and Pine MN.
The last picture of the day was shot as we were heading north on I35, a very nice rainbow was occurring off to our east. A perfect way to end a very nice day of chasing in Minnesota :)
Thanks for viewing my pics.
Tim