Monday, May 31, 2010

5/31/10: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 1:33 PM CDT, Monday, May 31st, 2010

Note: A cold front pushed east across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Sunday 5/30/10. This boundary did produce some showers and thunderstorms across our area, but as is often the case during the warm season, the precipitation that developed was on the scattered side. Here are some rain totals that occurred on Sunday. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

International Falls MN (Koochiching County) 0.05"

Grand Marais MN (Cook County) 0.09"

Hayward WI (Sawyer County) 0.12"

Ashland WI (Ashland County) 0.08"

Cook MN (St. Louis County) 0.16"

Kabetogama MN (St. Louis County) 0.43"

3 miles East of Orr MN (St. Louis County) 0.32"

Upson WI (Iron County) 0.20"

Saron WI (Washburn County) 0.31"

Webster WI (Burnett County) 0.13"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

May end's on a mild note across our local area with high temperatures generally in the 70s with 850 mb temperatures as of 2 PM between +10/+11 degrees C in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Dewpoints were on the low side Today with generally 40s to around 50 degrees across our area with PWS ranging from .50"-.70". Surface map This Afternoon featured high pressure of 1016 mb centered in Eastcentral Minnesota. A warm front stretched from Southeast Manitoba Province to Northwest Minnesota with a cold front across the Central Dakotas. The atmosphere was destabilizing across parts of Northern Minnesota This Afternoon with latest meso-analysis showing CAPES up to 500 j/kg with Lifted Indices falling to around zero degrees C with low level lapse rates of 7.5-9.0 c/km. Isolated showers have developed within the past hour in portions of Koochiching, Itasca, and Northern Cass Counties in Northern Minnesota with movement toward the east-northeast.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

West-southwest flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest Today with several upper level disturbances tracking generally in a west-east fashion through the Western U.S./Northern Plains/and Upper Midwest.

Tonight:

A cold front which was over the Central Dakotas This Afternoon will track east, reaching Northcentral Minnesota by dawn. The presence of a southwest low level jet 20-35 knots out ahead of this boundary combined with some instability (CAPES <500 j/kg, Lifted Indices around zero degrees C) will help to trigger a few showers or thunderstorms through the night, primarily in Northern Minnesota. A seperate area of spotty showers or thunderstorms could get going later in the night in parts of Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, but chances of this occurring are relatively low. The severe weather threat Tonight is minimal in Northern Minnesota due to the low amounts of moisture and instability in place, but there is some shear along with stronger winds aloft in this area, so some gusty winds and or small hail along with occasional lightning strikes and brief heavy downpours are possible in the strongest activity Tonight. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found across our area Tonight with lows mainly in the 50s. Winds will be out of the south, southwest, or north under 20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

A cold front is expected to be over Northcentral Minnesota Tuesday Morning, this boundary is then forecast to sink south-southeast through Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Tuesday Afternoon into early Tuesday Evening.

...SEVERE THREAT...

The atmosphere along and ahead of this front will consist of CAPES from 500-1500 j/kg, Lifted Indices of zero/-5 degrees C...Highest values in both departments in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota. Winds aloft will also be rather strong with W-SW H5 winds up to 45 knots while an upper level jet of around 90 knots sets-up near or over Northern Minnesota on Tuesday. 0-6 KM Bulk Shear and Effective Bulk Shear will increase to 30-45 knots on Tuesday in Eastern Minnesota/Northwest Wisconsin with 0-3 KM Helicities maxing out at around 200 m2/s2 per 09z SREF model.

The potential does exist for a complex of severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and large hail to spread E/SE through Southern parts of our local area on Tuesday. The models differ with the exact placement of this feature, the 12z NAM is farther north, while the 12z GFS has a farther south solution. At this time, it appears that areas south of a line from Hinckley Minnesota to Park Falls Wisconsin would be at greatest risk for seeing possible severe weather Tuesday Afternoon...This would include the Counties of Pine MN...Burnett WI...Washburn WI...Sawyer WI...and Price WI...

A few showers or thunderstorms could also occur over the rest of our area on Tuesday before things dry out Tuesday Night as the main boundary exits to our south while high pressure begins to head east out of the Northern Rockies.

Partly-mostly cloudy skies are expected Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night across our area with high temperatures on Tuesday in the 60s and 70s, but a few locales in Northwest Wisconsin could reach the 80s! Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s. Winds will be out of the south, southwest, or north on Tuesday at 10-20 mph with north or west winds Tuesday Night under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

The upper level pattern will consist of a nearly zonal west-east flow from Thursday through the weekend. Several upper level disturbances will continue to work east through the Upper Midwest but with such a fast flow aloft, the models are having a difficult time from one run to the next in regards to the timing of such features.

Right now it looks like Thursday and Thursday Night will be dry across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, then from Friday through the weekend we could see some spells of showers or thunderstorms. Severe weather chances look low at this time, but this may change in coming days.

High temperatures for Thursday and Friday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Thursday Night and Friday Night in the 40s and 50s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible Overnight. Low 50 to 55. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday... Considerable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 73 to 78. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming north during the Afternoon. Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers possible early. Low 45 to 50. Wind north at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 67 to 72.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. High 68 to 73.

.Thursday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 48 to 53.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 65 to 70. Chahnce of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 68 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 45 degrees

Tim

Saturday, May 29, 2010

5/29/10: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 2:36 PM CDT, Saturday, May 29th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 1986... A record high temperature of 87 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

On this date in 1984... A record low temperature of 29 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Note: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tracked east-southeast through Northern areas of Minnesota on Friday. Here are some rainfall totals that occurred up in that area. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

International Falls MN (Koochiching County) 0.28"

Cook MN (St. Louis County) 0.14"

Littlefork MN (Koochiching County) 0.43"

3 miles East of Orr MN (St. Louis County) 0.21"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Debris clouds (high level cirrus) have been pushing east across Northern areas of Minnesota Today as strong to severe thunderstorm clusters have been roaming across Southern portions of Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Ontario Province Canada Today. The remainder of our area saw mainly sunny skies Today. High temperatures were mainly in the low to mid 80s Today across our area with a few locales in Western/Southern areas (Brainerd, Pine River, Hinckley, and Siren) nearing 90 degrees This Afternoon. The cool spot continued to be found at the head of Lake Superior and up the North Shore of Lake Superior where highs Today stayed in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees. 850 mb temperatures as of 2 PM were right around +17 degrees C in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Dewpoints This Afternoon were running in the 40s and lower 50s with PWS from 0.80"-0.90". Winds Today were out of the south or east at 10-20 mph. Surface map This Afternoon featured low pressure of 1004 mb centered in Northern North Dakota near Minot. A cold front attached to this low extended south through the Central Dakotas while a stationary front was in place across far Northern Minnesota.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Upper level ridge (582 meters) continued to cover areas from the Upper Midwest through the Central and Southern Plains, east through the Western/Central Great Lakes and south through the Ohio Valley per RUC model analysis. An upper level low (576 meters) was centered in Central Mississippi Today with little movement noted with this system per water vapor satellite imagery. A northwest flow aloft was in place from Eastern Canada through the Northeast U.S. Today while a fairly vigorous upper level trough inches slowly east out of the Northern/Central Rockies. An upper level low (558 meters) embedded within this H5 trough covered areas of Eastern Alberta/Western Saskatchewan Province Canada Today while a rather strong upper level jet (90-120 knot winds) was in place from Eastern Utah, north-northeast through Central Montana.

Tonight:

Clear-partly cloudy skies will be found in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. The frontal boundary in far Northern Minnesota will move little through the night while the cold front across the Central Dakotas heads east toward Western areas of Minnesota by dawn. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Tonight near the cold front to our west, some of this activity could move into Western parts of our area Overnight, generally west of a line from International Falls to Leader. Lows Tonight will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior. Winds will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

Low pressure is forecast to move from it's current position which was Northern North Dakota to the border of Southern Ontario Province/far Northern Minnesota on Sunday, this low will then exit to our northeast by Sunday Night. A cold front attached to this low will pass east through our local area Sunday and Sunday Evening.

The cold front is forecast to move through Northern Minnesota from mid-Morning Sunday to early Sunday Afternoon. The cold front is forecast to pass through Northeast-Eastcentral Minnesota around mid Afternoon Sunday with the cold front passing through Northwestern Wisconsin late Sunday Afternoon and Sunday Evening.

The airmass along and ahead of this front will consist of dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s with 850 mb td's ranging from +8/+14 degrees C. PWS will range from 1.00"-1.50".

The atmosphere will become marginally unstable by Sunday Afternoon/Evening mainly in Northwest Wisconsin, Northeast Minnesota and far Eastern Minnesota with CAPES generally ranging from 500-1250 j/kg, highest values in Northwest Wisconsin with Lifted Indices of zero/-2 degrees C.

Low level jet looks weak along and ahead of the cold front on Sunday with speeds generally around 20-25 knots, winds aloft are forecast to range from 25-40 knots while a rather potent upper level jet with wind speeds up to 90 knots pushes east out of the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest by Sunday Afternoon-Evening. 0-6 KM Bulk Shear is forecast to range from 25-35 knots Sunday Afternoon with Effective Bulk Shear <30 knots per SREF model.

There should be enough moisture and instability in place to generate some showers or thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday Evening as the cold front moves through, the upper jet approaching from the west should also help with some forcing which should allow some additional precipitation to break out behind the cold front.

Rain that does develop should remain scattered the way it looks now with most locations having a 1-3 hour window where they may see some rain. Precipitation amounts are forecast to remain under 0.10", but any thunderstorm that develops could drop locally higher amounts.

Severe potential continues to look low across our area Sunday Afternoon-Evening with the main threat from any thunderstorm being dangerous lightning strikes and brief heavy downpours and possibly some small hail under one half inch in diameter and gusty winds to 40 mph.

Partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies are expected on Sunday with high temperatures in the 70s and 80s in Northwest Wisconsin with mainly 70s in Northern Minnesota. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 40s and 50s. Winds on Sunday will be out of the south or west at 10-20 mph with northwest or west winds Sunday Night at 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A new cold front will drop southeast across Northern Minnesota-Northwest Wisconsin Monday Afternoon through Tuesday Morning. This next disturbance will bring another risk for a few showers or thunderstorms to our local area Monday into early Tuesday, this next system looks quite similar to Sunday's with most locations having about a 1-3 hour period where they could see some rain. Severe threat looks low on Monday with minimal instability and moisture forecasted by the models (CAPES generally under 500 j/kg with Lifted Indices around zero degrees C) with dewpoints generally in the 40s to lower 50s. Winds aloft look stronger on Monday compared to Sunday, however, so if the instability and moisture end up being higher than expected, then we may be dealing with an isolated severe weather risk across Northern-Eastern Minnesota Monday Afternoon-Evening.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night look mainly dry at the the moment across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. The next chance for some rain will come around the middle of next week as low pressure pushes northeast from the Central Plains.

High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s Monday Night and Tuesday Night.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Clear to partly cloudy. Low 53 to 58, a little cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Variable cloudiness. Scattered Afternoon showers possible, isolated thunderstorms also possible. High 70 to 75. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming west. Chance of rain 40%.

.Sunday Night... Becoming partly cloudy. Showers possible before 6 PM. Low 45 to 50. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Memorial Day... Partly sunny. Afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible during the Evening. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 48 to 53. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 65 to 70.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 43 to 48.

.Wednesday... Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 60 to 65. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 68 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 44 degrees

Tim

Thursday, May 27, 2010

5/27/10: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 2:58 PM CDT, Thursday, May 27th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 2008... A record low temperature of 31 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Weather tidbits:

*Today marks the 13th day in a row with an above normal high temperature at Duluth, MN.

*12 out of the last 13 days has featured a maximum temperature of 70 degrees or higher at Duluth, MN.

*Average monthly temperature thru the 26th at Duluth, MN: 52.2 degrees which is 1.2 degrees Above Normal.

*2 days during the month of May has recorded a rainfall total >1.00" at Duluth, MN. 5/13/10: 1.03" and on 5/23/10: 3.96"

*The series of thunderstorms that tracked through Duluth, MN on Sunday May 23rd, 2010 dropped 3.96" of rain at the Duluth National Weather Service which erases the precipitation deficit that we were in prior to Sunday. All it took was a matter of an hour or so for a precipitation surplus to happen.

Precipitation total since 1/1/10: 9.15"
Normal: 8.10"
Departure: 1.05" Above Normal

Precipitation total since 3/1/10: 7.64"
Normal: 6.15"
Departure: 1.49" Above Normal

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Another beautiful late Spring day across our local area with low humidity (dewpoints generally in the 40s to around 50 degrees) with Afternoon PWS ranging from 0.40"-0.60" across Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast-Eastern Minnesota, to 0.70"-0.90" in Northern Minnesota. High temperatures Today were in the mainly in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees with 60s close to Lake Superior. 850 mb temperatures as of 2 PM ranging from +10/+13 degrees C in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Winds Today were out of the north, east, or west under 15 mph. Mostly sunny-sunny skies covered our local area Today with just some high level clouds moving across Northwest parts of our area. Surface map late Today featured high pressure of 1023 mb centered in Eastern Minnesota with a stationary front running west to east in Northern Minnesota while a cold front was centered over Central Lake Superior.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Upper level ridge (582-588 meters) was re-developing from the Upper Midwest south through the Central Plains Today per RUC model analysis. Southwest H5 flow covered most of the Western U.S. Today with an upper level low (552-558 meters) in place over the Pacific Northwest. An axis of strong winds aloft (90-130 knots) extended from Central California northeast to Southwestern Montana late Today per RUC model analysis.

Tonight through Friday Night:

Little change in the weather is expected through this period with high pressure slowly pushing off to our east while the stationary front currently in Northern Minnesota sinks a little south Tonight and Friday before retreating back north as a warm front Friday Night. Mostly clear skies will be found across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight and Tomorrow Night with partly cloudy-sunny skies on tap for Friday. Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s, but some 30s are possible in the typical cold spots. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s and 80s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s and 50s. Variable winds will turn to the south/east Friday and Friday Night with wind speeds under 20 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Saturday will be dry across our local area with high temperatures mainly in the 80s with a few locales possibly inching toward the 90 degree mark! It will be cooler though especially along the North Shore of Lake Superior. An area of low pressure will be tracking east-northeast across the Northern Plains on Saturday and will move into Central Canada or the Northern parts of Lake Superior (depending on the model) for Sunday Night and Monday. The forecast models Today are slowing the progression of this system with the EUROPEAN model the slowest of them all.

It now appears that the cold front will be tracking through Northern, Northeast, and Eastcentral Minnesota Sunday Afternoon-Evening with the cold front passing through Northwest Wisconsin Sunday Night.

The airmass along and ahead of this boundary will become somewhat moist and unstable this weekend with dewpoints climbing into the 50s-60s while H85 td's increase to +10/+14 degrees C with PWS of 1.00-1.30".

Instability will be on the rise as well for Sunday with CAPES generally around 1000 j/kg. Shear doesn't look too impressive at the moment with a weak low level jet in place <25 knots, strongest winds aloft are expected to remain post-frontal, with generally 25-35 knot 500 mb wind speeds found in Eastcentral Minnesota-Northwest Wisconsin Sunday Afternoon-Evening. There will, however, be a rather strong upper level jet edging east into Western Minnesota on Sunday with an area of 70-100 knot winds across the Northern Plains and adjacent areas of Western Minnesota late this weekend.

A few showers or thunderstorms could move into Northwest parts of our local area for Saturday Night with locations from International Falls to Northome, south to Cass Lake possibly seeing a few showers at that time.

The risk for showers or thunderstorms will then overspread the rest of our area Sunday and Sunday Night although right now it doesn't look like it'll be a steady all day rain, but any thunderstorm that develops could drop some heavier downpours. The risk for severe weather isn't the greatest, but an isolated severe storm could develop late Sunday Afternoon-Evening, mainly in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin based on the latest model projections.

Low temperatures Saturday Night will be in the 50s and 60s with highs Sunday in the 60s and 70s, but some 80s are possible mainly in Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 40s and 50s. High temperatures for Memorial Day will be in the 60s, but some Northern areas could hold in the 50s as a fairly strong push of cold advection (850 mb temperatures from -4/+2 degrees C) drops south behind Sunday's low/cold frontal passage Lows Monday Night will be in the 30s and 40s. The risk for a few showers will continue on Monday, especially in Northern Minnesota, the remainder of our area should be dry on Monday.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 47 to 52. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday... Mostly sunny. High 75 to 80 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 50 to 55. Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 78 to 83.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60.

.Sunday... Variable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 45 to 50. Chance of rain 20%.

.Memorial Day... Partly sunny. High 60 to 65.

Normal High Temperature Today 67 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 44 degrees

Tim

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

5/26/10: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:17 PM CDT, Wednesday, May 26th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 1992... A record low temperature of 28 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

...RECORD EVENT...

A record high temperature of 86 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota on Tuesday, May 25th, 2010. The previous record for the date was 85 degrees which was set in 1914!

Here are the storm reports from Northern Wisconsin and far Northeast Minnesota from Tuesday, May 25th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Catawba WI (Price County) 1:00 PM CDT: Thunderstorm wind damage, power lines and trees down.

Prentice WI (Price County) 1:15 PM CDT: 1.00" diameter hail. Very strong winds were also reported.

5 miles South of Phillips WI (Price County) 1:19 PM CDT: 0.75" diameter hail.

Park Falls WI (Price County) 2:05 PM CDT: 0.75" diameter hail.

Mercer WI (Iron County) 2:30 PM CDT: Thunderstorm wind damage. Some trees down. Estimated wind gusts of 50 mph.

1 mile Northeast of Hayward WI (Sawyer County) Thunderstorm wind gust. 44 mph thunderstorm outflow winds.

High Bridge WI (Ashland County) 2:50 PM CDT: 0.88" diameter hail. Gusty winds blew a few small branches off trees.

Butternut WI (Ashland County) 3:15 PM CDT: 0.88" diameter hail. Some broken tree limbs down at Butternut and Park Falls due to wind gusts.

Silver Bay MN (Lake County) 4:13 PM CDT: Marine thunderstorm wind gust of 41 mph.

Grand Marais MN (Cook County) 4:40 PM CDT: Marine thunderstorm wind gust of 41 mph.

20 miles North-Northwest of Grand Marais MN (Cook County) 5:15 PM CDT: Poplar Lake Gunflint Trail, a few large trees down. Power lines down at Trail Center.

Here are some high temperatures that occurred across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Tuesday, May 25th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: 86 degrees

International Falls MN: 86 degrees

Brainerd MN: 85 degrees

Hibbing MN: 87 degrees

Silver Bay MN: 88 degrees

Ely MN: 88 degrees

Orr MN: 90 degrees

Hinckley MN: 86 degrees

Ashland WI: 87 degrees

Hayward WI: 90 degrees

Siren WI: 90 degrees

Phillips WI: 90 degrees

Cook MN: 87 degrees

Madeline Island WI: 86 degrees

June 2010 outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center on May 20th, 2010:

For Duluth:

Equal Chances for Above Normal, Below Normal, or Normal Temperatures and Precipitation.

June 2010 through August 2010 outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center on May 20th, 2010:

For Duluth:

33% Chance for Below Normal Temperatures with Equal Chances for Above Normal, Below Normal, or Normal Precipitation.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure of 1022 mb was centered in Western Minnesota late Today with another 1022 mb high up in Central Saskatchewan Province Canada. The cold front which passed through our local area on Tuesday was now centered well to our south-east Today. Partly cloudy-sunny skies were found across our area Today with very pleasant late May temperatures in the 70s to around 80 degrees while dewpoints have dropped into the 30s and 40s Today. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +8/+10 degrees C in Northern Minnesota to +11/+13 degrees C from Northwest Wisconsin back through Eastcentral Minnesota. Winds Today were out of the north or west at 10-20 mph.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Southwest flow aloft was in place over the Upper Midwest Today per RUC model analysis. Upper level ridge (582 meters) covered a large part of the U.S...from the Central-Southern Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley, Central-Southern Plains, and Mid-Mississippi Valley region. Upper level low (576 meters) was centered east of the Carolinas Today per water vapor satellite imagery/RUC model analysis. Another potent upper level trough covered the Pacific Northwest/Eastern parts of the Pacific Ocean Today per water vapor satellite imagery with a south-southwest flow aloft occurring out ahead of this system across the Western U.S. Today.

Tonight through Thursday Night:

High pressure will be the main influence on our weather as it slides east across the Upper Midwest during this period. Clear-partly cloudy skies will be found in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Tonight through Tomorrow Night with lows in the 40s and 50s both nights while highs Tomorrow reach the 70s and lower 80s with cooler temperatures at times closer to Lake Superior. Winds will be out of the north, east, or south under 20 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

High pressure will head off to our east for Friday and Saturday with a southerly flow developing across the Upper Midwest on the backside of this high. High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s both Friday and Saturday with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the 50s to lower 60s.

Eventually we will see an area of low pressure make it's way out of the Northern Rockies and into Central Canada/Upper Midwest this weekend, the forecast models Today seem to be coming into better agreement with the timing of this system. It appears right now that will see a cold front pass through our area on Sunday, this system looks to have favorable upper level support going for it, but moisture may be somewhat limited, also the overall timing of the cold front doesn't appear to be too favorable for thunderstorm development in Northern Minnesota, but a slightly better risk for thunderstorms would exist in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as the cold front moves through these areas Sunday Afternoon or Sunday Evening. If more moisture can get drawn north into this system and if it can slow down just a little more, then we could have a risk for a few severe thunderstorms over parts of our area late this weekend.

This system is forecast to pull off to our north/east by Sunday Night and Monday with cooler temperatures occurring in it's wake, could also see a few lingering showers mainly around International Falls, Crane Lake, Ely, and Grand Marais for Sunday Night and Monday.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 48 to 53. Wind northwest to north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Mostly sunny. High 75 to 80 but it may turn cooler closer to Lake Superior. Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 45 to 50. Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Friday... Mostly sunny. High 75 to 80 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 50 to 55.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 78 to 83.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60.

.Sunday... Variable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 67 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 43 degrees

Tim

Lightning video from Duluth, MN

A series of thunderstorms developed and tracked through portions of Duluth, Minnesota Sunday Night, May 23rd, 2010. Here are two videos I shot from those storms. Those storms dropped very heavy amounts of rain in a short period of time to the West-North parts of Duluth, 2 to nearly 4" of rain fell which led to some flooding late Sunday Evening. Thanks for viewing.



Tim
video video

Sunday, May 23rd, 2010 Storm Chase Trip #2







































































































Sunday, May 23rd, 2010 was a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorm day across parts of Eastcentral Minnesota, the risk area was so close to Duluth that Shawn, Sam, and myself couldn't resist going out for a short chase down I35 with Moose Lake, Minnesota our target area. The overall set-up was questionable due to less than stellar amounts of shear, winds aloft were also quite weak which in most cases results in only isolated severe weather at best. But, the positives included very high amounts of instability (CAPE), as well as a ton of moisture, and a cold front albeit a weak one which had just enough convergence along it to bust through a strong layer of warm air aloft (CAP). Scattered thunderstorms did develop to the west-north of Moose Lake MN Sunday late Afternoon-Evening with a few of these storms turning severe at times north of Duluth and east of Hibbing MN, those storms couldn't really move toward the east, instead they were lifting northeast and riding along the edge of the CAP. Although we didn't see any thunderstorms in Moose Lake MN on Sunday, we still had a good time and saw some nice build-up to the clouds as storms were trying very very very hard to bust through the CAP. Enjoy the pics and thanks for viewing!
Total mileage from Duluth MN to Moose Lake MN and back to Duluth MN: 76.34 miles.
Tim

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

5/25/10: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:36 PM CDT, Tuesday, May 25th, 2010

Note: If the 85 degree high temperature that was reported in Duluth, MN Today is official, then we will have tied the record high temperature for the 25th of May which was last set in 1914!

Weather History:

On this date in 1992 and 1988, a record low temperature of 30 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Here are some high temperatures that occurred on Monday, May 24th, 2010 across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Brainerd MN: 91 degrees

Hibbing MN: 88 degrees

Ely MN: 88 degrees

Orr MN: 88 degrees

Cook MN: 86 degrees

Grand Rapids MN: 88 degrees

Longville MN: 90 degrees

Pine River MN: 90 degrees

Aitkin MN: 88 degrees

Moose Lake MN: 90 degrees

Hinckley MN: 90 degrees

Ashland WI: 93 degrees

Hayward WI: 91 degrees

Siren WI: 92 degrees

Phillips WI: 91 degrees

Bruno MN: 91 degrees

Floodwood MN: 85 degrees

5 miles Northwest of Washburn WI: 91 degrees

Gordon WI: 93 degrees

Solon Springs WI: 93 degrees

Upson WI: 90 degrees

Weather tidbits:

*Record High Temperatures occurred at St. Cloud Minnesota (94 degrees) and the Twin Cities (95 degrees) on 5/24/10.

*St. James Minnesota and Cambridge Minnesota reported a high temperature of 97 degrees on Monday, May 24th, 2010!

Note: The National Weather Service in Duluth, MN issued it's first Tornado Warning for Spring 2010 on Monday Evening, May 24th. The tornado warning was issued for Northwest Koochiching County in Northern Minnesota, although no tornadoes were spotted, there was a report of 1.75" diameter hail at Loman MN (Koochiching County) at 9:40 PM CDT Monday Evening.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A cold front was located in Central Minnesota This Afternoon while an outflow boundary caused by last night's storms in Western-Southern Minnesota made it's way into Northern-Central Wisconsin Today. A drier and more stable airmass developed in wake of this outflow boundary across most of Northern-Eastern Minnesota Today where dewpoints dropped into the 40s and 50s while a much more humid and unstable airmass continued Today over most of Northwest Wisconsin with dewpoints This Afternoon in the 60s to around 70 degrees, PWS of 1.00"-1.60" along with CAPES from 1500-2500 j/kg and Lifted Indices of -3/-6 degrees C. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been developing across Northwest Wisconsin Today with movement toward the north-northwest. A few of these storms have turned severe at times This Afternoon with reports of high winds and hail. These storms Today have also been prolific rain and lightning producers. High temperatures Today were in the 80s to around 90 degrees, but temperatures fell into the 70s in the rain cooled air across parts of Northwest Wisconsin. The marine layer also continued Today at the head of Lake Superior with temperatures in the 50s and 60s, areas of thick fog also occurred at times Today with visibilities down to 1/4 mile or less from time to time.

There's been some interesting things going on near the Twin Ports Today. One, the lake breeze front was shifting east through Southern St. Louis/Carlton Counties This Afternoon, but as this boundary moved toward Proctor/West Duluth around 3:30 PM it stopped and was actually getting pushed back a bit toward the west now thanks to an area of thunderstorms that was moving through the South Shore of Lake Superior which is helping to reinforce the marine layer to some extent. Second, there's been an outflow boundary shifting northwest across Northern Wisconsin Today, this OFB as of 3:51 PM CDT stretched from Northern Bayfield County through Central Douglas County in Northwest Washburn County in Northwest Wisconsin with movement toward the NW! This OFB has collided with the lake breeze front in Central Douglas County late Today, and new thunderstorms have been erupting just east of this boundary!

Mostly sunny skies covered Northern-Northeast Minnesota Today while clouds were more extensive across Northwest Wisconsin. Winds Today were out of the south, east, or north generally under 20 mph.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Strong upper level low (552 meters) was centered in Southern Saskatchewan Province This Afternoon per RUC model analysis with movement toward the north. A S-SW flow aloft continued Today over the Upper Midwest out ahead of an upper level trough across the Western U.S. An upper level ridge (588 meters) continued to cover portions of the Central-Eastern Great Lakes as well as parts of Eastern Canada and the Northeast U.S. Today.

Tonight:

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue This Evening across portions of Northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead of Minnesota...Generally affecting areas from Forest Center to Castle Danger in Minnesota and off to the northeast. A few of these storms could be strong to severe with hail up to 1" in diameter and wind gusts from 40-60 mph! Heavy downpours and dangerous lightning strikes will also occur with this activity This Evening. By late Tonight, the cold front which was over Central Minnesota This Afternoon will head slowly east, this boundary could cause a few more showers or thunderstorms Overnight, mainly in Northwest Wisconsin and possibly back toward the Twin Ports and Eastern Minnesota. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will cover our area Tonight with lows in the 50s and 60s with some 40s possible at the head of Lake Superior where areas of dense fog could linger at times. Winds Tonight will be out of the south, west, or east under 15 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

A cold front will exit Northwest Wisconsin Tomorrow Morning, then high pressure will build into the area from the Northern Plains. Showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm could continue Wednesday Morning in Northwest Wisconsin, then look for generally dry conditions throughout Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s and 80s with much lower dewpoints compared to the last few days. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s and 50s. Winds during this period will be out of the north or west under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Dry weather is expected in our area for Thursday through Saturday as an upper level ridge of high pressure re-develops over the Upper Midwest and Central Plains. High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s for Thursday and Friday with cooler temperatures at times closer to Lake Superior. Lows Thursday Night and Friday Night will be in the 40s and 50s. An area of low pressure and it's associated warm front and cold front is expected to move east out of the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains this weekend. This system could bring some showers or thunderstorms to our local area sometime during the Sunday-Monday time period. The forecast models Today are not in very good agreement on the overall timing of this system, so it remains to be seen when exactly our best shot of rain will occur.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of dense fog at times mainly closer to Lake Superior. Low 50 to 55. Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph Inland with east winds at 5 to 15 mph closer to Lake Superior. A period of strong winds with gusts to 40 mph may occur through 5 PM.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 73 to 78. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 48 to 53. Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Mostly sunny. High 72 to 77.

.Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 45 to 50.

.Friday... Mostly sunny. High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 48 to 53.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75.

Normal High Temperature Today 67 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 43 degrees

Tim

Monday, May 24, 2010

5/24/10: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:55 PM CDT, Monday, May 24th, 2010

...Record Event...

3.93" of rain fell at Duluth, Minnesota on Sunday, May 23rd, 2010 which was a record for the day and for the month of May. The previous 24 hour rainfall record for the 23rd of May was 1.28" set in 1964. The previous monthly record for May was 3.02" which was set on May 22nd, 1884!

Here are the storm reports across Northern-Eastern Minnesota from Sunday Evening and Monday Morning, May 23rd-24th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

10:32 PM CDT 5/23/10: Willow River MN (Pine County) 0.88" diameter hail

1034 PM CDT 5/23/10: Moose Lake MN (Carlton County) 0.75" diameter hail

1:46 AM CDT 5/24/10: Emily MN (Crow Wing County) 0.75" diameter hail

2:05 AM CDT 5/24/10: 5 miles Southeast of Grand Rapids MN (Itasca County) 1.00" diameter hail

2:42 AM CDT 5/24/10: Coleraine MN (Itasca County) 0.50" diameter hail

3:00 AM CDT 5/24/10: Bowstring MN (Itasca County) 0.75" diameter hail

3:52 AM CDT 5/24/10: Nashwauk MN (Itasca County) 1.00" diameter hail

4:00 AM CDT 5/24/10: Big Falls MN (Koochiching County) 0.75" diameter hail, Dime size hail lasted for about 10 minutes.

5:07 AM CDT 5/24/10: Soudan MN (St. Louis County) 1.50" diameter hail. Lots of hail, most was 1.00" in diameter. Damage to vehicles and skylights. Trees stripped of leaves.

Here are some rainfall reports from Sunday, May 23rd, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN

Duluth MN: 3.93"

Hibbing MN: 0.37"

Cook MN: 2.18"

Northome MN: 0.21"

8 miles South of Bigfork MN: 0.61"

2 miles South of Tower MN: 1.50"

Embarrass MN: 0.55"

Littlefork MN: 0.23"

7 miles Northwest of Two Harbors MN: 1.33"

Here are some high temperatures from Sunday, May 23rd, 2010 from Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

International Falls MN: 85 degrees

Brainerd MN: 83 degrees

Hibbing MN: 84 degrees

Cook MN: 84 degrees

Orr MN: 88 degrees

Aitkin MN: 82 degrees

Ashland WI: 82 degrees

Siren WI: 85 degrees

2 miles South of Tower MN: 82 degrees

Littlefork MN: 85 degrees

Hinckley MN: 83 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Hot/muggy weather covered most of our area Today with high temperatures topping out in the 80s to lower 90s while dewpoints were in the 60s to around 70 degrees! Heat indices were in the upper 80s to middle 90s This Afternoon in Western-Southern parts of our local area. A marine layer persisted through the day around the head of Lake Superior where high temperatures didn't get out of the 50s, there's also been very thick fog at times with visibilities down to around zero from time to time. Winds Today were out of the south or east at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts. Surface map This Afternoon featured strong low pressure of 992 mb centered in Western Nebraska with a warm front extending northeast of this low through Northcentral Minnesota.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Vigorous negative tilted trough was surging N/NE through the Northern Rockies-Western High Plains This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery. South-southwest flow aloft was in place over the Upper Midwest Today out ahead of this storm while an upper level ridge of high pressure (588 meters) covered the Great Lakes and Mid-Mississippi Valley region.

Tonight:

Potent area of low pressure will continue to lift north through the Western Dakotas Tonight while a warm front continues it's northward track through Northern Minnesota. The atmosphere is very unstable in our local area Today but it is also capped. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms which developed early this Morning through late this Morning across Northern Minnesota have lifted north into Ontario Province late Today and further development is not expected for the majority of our immediate area Tonight due to the warm mid level temperatures in place...With that said, a few showers and thunderstorms could clip Western-Northwest parts of our area Tonight, generally west of a line from International Falls to Walker, any storm that manages to develop in these areas could be severe with the ample CAPE in place along with some rather good shear. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main threats along with torrential rain and dangerous lightning, an isolated tornado risk also exists This Evening. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will cover our area Tonight with areas of dense fog, especially near Lake Superior where visibilities could drop to zero at times. Lows Tonight will be unseasonably warm with 60s to around 70 degrees, but 50s will be common near Lake Superior. Winds Tonight will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Low pressure lifts north into Central Canada while a cold front extending southwest of this low settles east into our local area during this period. The atmosphere will continue to be very moist and unstable out ahead of this boundary and as a result from this we should see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night. The overall severe threat is limited during this period due to weak upper level winds and marginal amounts of shear in place, but an isolated risk for severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds does exist Tomorrow Afternoon-Evening across Eastcentral Minnesota-Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin due to the high amounts of instability that are forecast to be in place. Dangerous lightning and torrential rainfall could also occur with localized flooding possible where storms develop and move over the same locations. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 80s to lower 90s with 50s and 60s closer to Lake Superior where areas of dense fog could persist on Tuesday. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be out of the south, east, or west during this period at 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A cold front will exit Northwest Wisconsin early Wednesday the way it looks now, there could be some additional showers or thunderstorms on Wednesday...Mainly in Northwest Wisconsin, the rest of our area should be dry on Wednesday with lowering humidity along with a wind shift to the west. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Wednesday Night in the 40s and 50s. Dry conditions are forecast across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Thursday with highs in the 60s and 70s with lows Thursday Night in the 40s and 50s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Muggy. Areas of dense fog. Mostly cloudy. Low 58 to 63, but around 50 closer to Lake Superior. Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday... Muggy. Scattered showers or thunderstorms developing, mainly during the Afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall is possible. Variable cloudiness with areas of dense fog at times, especially near Lake Superior. High 75 to 80 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Tuesday Night... Scattered showers or thunderstorms, mainly during the Evening. Locally heavy rainfall is possible. Mostly cloudy with areas of fog. Low 55 to 60. Wind becoming north at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Wednesday... Less humid. Partly sunny. High 75 to 80.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 72 to 77.

.Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 45 to 50.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 68 to 73 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal High Temperature Today 66 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 43 degrees

Tim

Saturday, May 22, 2010

5/22/10: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:34 PM CDT, Saturday, May 22nd, 2010

A cluster of showers and embedded thunderstorms tracked east out of Western Minnesota and through portions of Northcentral and Eastcentral Minnesota This Morning into the early Afternoon hours Today. This area of precipitation was accompanied by some strong winds which caused some damage around parts of our area. Here are some storm reports from Today per NWS Duluth, MN.

11:45 AM CDT 5/22/10: Non Thunderstorm Wind Damage at Cohasset MN (Itasca County) 45 mph wind gusts with many 4" diameter branches down, some trees and power lines down as well.

12:20 PM CDT 5/22/10: Non Thunderstorm Wind Damage at Keewatin MN (Itasca County) 45 mph wind gusts with small limbs blown down, small objects blowing around.

12:00 PM CDT 5/22/10: Non Thunderstorm Wind Damage at Hill City MN (Aitkin County) Power lines and trees down.

11:30 AM CDT 5/22/10: 60 mph non thunderstorm wind gust 1 mile South of Brainerd MN (Crow Wing County)

11:45 AM CDT 5/22/10: 6 miles West of Grand Rapids MN (Itasca County) 40 mph non thunderstorm wind gusts.

11:20 AM CDT 5/22/10: Brainerd MN (Crow Wing County) Local Law Enforcement reported several trees down, power lines down. Tree on car at Brainerd International Raceway.

10:40 AM CDT 5/22/10: Walker MN (Cass County) Large Pine Tree fell over power line, power outage reported.

10:42 AM CDT 5/22/10: Hackensack MN (Cass County) 40 mph non thunderstorm wind gusts, small limbs down. MN DOT Chamberlain MN-64 Mile Post 42 measured a wind gust to 56 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 992 mb was centered in Southern South Dakota late Today with a 994 mb low centered in Southern Saskatchewan Province Canada, another area of low pressure 988 mb was centered in Northern Colorado. A warm front extended from Southern South Dakota to Southwest Minnesota with a cold front heading east into the Western Dakotas. An initial burst of moist advection helped to generate an area of mainly light rain showers and gusty winds This Morning and early Afternoon in Western-Southern parts of our local area, most of the measurable rain with amounts under one quarter inch affected the Southern 1/2 of Cass County, Crow Wing County, far Southern Pine Counties in Minnesota along with far Southern parts of Washburn County in Northwest Wisconsin. Mostly cloudy skies through early This Afternoon has given way to some partial sunshine during the mid Afternoon hours. High temperatures Today were in the middle 60s to lower 70s with cooler 50s near Lake Superior. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +11/+18 degrees C across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Dewpoints Today were in the 40s and 50s, with 60+ degree dewpoints surging north out of Southern Minnesota late Today. 850 mb td's as of mid-Afternoon were in the +6/+9 degree C range across our local area with PWS ranging from 0.80"-1.20". Winds Today were out of the south or east at 5-15 mph with higher gusts.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Southwest flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest Today with an upper level trough in place across the Northern Rockies/Pacific Northwest per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery. Strong upper level jet (100-130 knots) extended from Southcentral California through Central Wyoming into the Western High Plains per RUC model analysis.

Tonight:

A southerly low level jet will increase to 40-55 knots Tonight across the Upper Midwest which will continue to pump warm and moist air north into our area. A warm front will head north-northeast out of Southwest Minnesota during the night, and this front combined with an increase in instability with CAPES building to between 1000-2500 j/kg Overnight, along with Lifted Indices of zero/-6 degrees C may help to pop a few showers and thunderstorms, especially in Western-Northern areas Tonight.

There is at least a limited threat for isolated severe thunderstorms Overnight, mainly along and west of a line from International Falls to Leader Minnesota with hail up to 1" in diameter and damaging wind gusts approaching 60 mph being the main threats. Locally heavy downpours and dangerous lightning strikes will also occur in any thunderstorm Tonight.

One limiting factor that may prevent thunderstorms from developing Tonight will be the presence of warm mid level temperatures as 700 mb temps continue to rise to around +10 degrees C later in the night. Low temperatures Tonight will be in the 50s and 60s across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. Winds will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

Low pressure will pass off to our west/northwest during this period. A cold front currently in the Western Dakotas will move east and will reach Central Minnesota Sunday Afternoon before stalling out in that general area Sunday Night.

A very moist and unstable airmass will be found over most of our area Sunday and Sunday Night with CAPES ranging from 1500-3500 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -2/-6 degrees C. Dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s, possibly near 70 degrees...especially away from Lake Superior, 850 mb td's will range from +10/+18 degrees C while PWS range from 1.00"-1.50"!

Plenty of fuel and moisture will be in place for thunderstorms, but warm mid level temps with +10/+12 degree C H7 temperatures and +12/+18 degree C H85 temperatures will also cover most of our area Sunday Afternoon-Evening which may prevent thunderstorms from developing.

If this cap can erode, then scattered showers and thunderstorms would develop during the late Afternoon and Evening hours across Northcentral-Eastcentral-Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

The threat for widespread severe weather seems low at this time due to winds aloft generally around 30-40 knots while the low level jet decreases to 20-30 knots, the 0-6 km BULK SHEAR and EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR also isn't the best, with speeds generally around 30 knots in our area per 09z SREF model.

With that said, the combination of high instability and moisture combined with marginal shear along with some convergence near the boundary should cause at least an isolated severe thunderstorm risk Sunday Afternoon and Evening...Mainly over portions of Eastcentral Minnesota and far Northwest Wisconsin.

This would include an area south of a line from Walker to Grand Rapids to Two Harbors Minnesota and west of a line from around Bayfield to Shell Lake in Northwest Wisconsin.

Southern half of Cass, Crow Wing, Aitkin, Southern Itasca, Pine, Carlton, Southern half of St. Louis, Southern Lake Counties In Minnesota and Douglas, Bayfield, Burnett, and Washburn Counties in Northwest Wisconsin would be included in this risk for isolated severe thunderstorms Sunday Afternoon and Sunday Evening.

The main threats would be from large hail up to 1" in diameter and damaging wind gusts to 60 mph. Dangerous lightning strikes and heavy downpours would also occur should a thunderstorm affect your area.

High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 70s and 80s but it could be cooler at times closer to Lake Superior. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 50s and 60s. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecast during this period with winds out of the south, east, or west at 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A warm, moist, and unstable airmass will continue to be in place across the Upper Midwest early next week as strong low pressure passes by well to our west/northwest from Monday into Tuesday. The cold front which will stall out in Central Minnesota on Sunday will retreat back north as a warm front on Monday, then will watch a new cold front settle south/east into Minnesota from Monday Night through Wednesday. There will be a threat for a few showers and thunderstorms across our local area for Monday and Tuesday with an isolated risk for severe storms due to the high amounts of instability and moisture in place. High temperatures for Monday and Tuesday will be in the 70s and 80s in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with cooler temperatures at times closer to Lake Superior. Low temperatures Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Breezy at times. Low 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Sunday... Humid. Variable cloudiness. Showers and thunderstorms possible early and again by late Afternoon. High 72 to 77 but cooler closer to Lake Superior. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Sunday Night... Humid. Variable cloudiness. A few showers and thunderstorms possible. Low 53 to 58. Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday... Humid. Variable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 73 to 78 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday Night... Humid. Partly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 55 to 60. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday... Humid. Variable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 73 to 78. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. Low 53 to 58. Chance of rain 20%.

.Wednesday... Partly sunny. High 75 to 80.

Normal High Temperature Today 66 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 42 degrees

Tim

Friday, May 21, 2010

5/21/10: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:27 PM CDT, Friday, May 21st, 2010

Note: Today, May 21st, 2010 marks the 7th day in a row with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota. We are now tied with the year's 1988 and 1973 for 2nd place with 7 consecutive days with high temperatures of at least 70 degrees for the month of May. The record is 9 straight days which occurred in May 1977.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Moisture has increased somewhat Today compared to recent days as dewpoints have risen into the mid 40s to lower 50s except in far Northeast Minnesota where Afternoon dewpoints were in the middle to upper 30s. PWS have climbed to between 1.00"-1.10" across almost all of Northwest Wisconsin back through Eastcentral Minnesota. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies covered our local area Today with high temperatures in the lower to middle 70s from Brainerd to the Iron Range on north to International Falls, elsewhere highs were in the 60s Today with 50s closer to Lake Superior. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +9/+14 degrees C, warmest northern areas and coolest in the south. Winds Today were very light, generally under 12 mph and variable in direction. Surface map late Today featured a few areas of low pressure 1000-1008 mb centered in the Central-Southern Rockies. A cold front was centered over the Central Dakotas. Low pressure of 998 mb was centered in Central Alberta Province Canada. Low pressure 1010 mb was centered in Westcentral Illinois.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Southwest flow aloft was overspreading the Western U.S. and Northern Plains Today as the upper level pattern begins to change. A fairly vigorous disturbance continued to lift E/NE across Illinois and Indiana Today with troughing extending northwest/north of this system into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Today per water vapor satellite imagery. A cold upper level trough covered the Pacific Northwest for the 2nd day in a row with 500 mb temperatures as low as -30 degrees C in portions of Oregon and Washington This Afternoon per RUC model analysis. Winds aloft were increasing Today (90-120 knots) on the south/southeast side of the Pacific Northwest upper level low from Central California to Western Wyoming.

Tonight:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover our area with the disturbance over Western Illinois continuing to track off toward the E/NE Tonight, some moisture lifting northwest/north of that feature will continue to cause a few light rain showers This Evening, mainly in parts of Northwest Wisconsin back through Eastcentral Minnesota, none of this rain is expected to be heavy with only trace amounts of precipitation expected. Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s for most areas with variable winds under 12 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

Low pressure will be centered well to our west during this period while a warm front begins to lift northeast out of the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Southerly winds will develop ahead of this system on Saturday which will transport higher amounts of moisture north into our area. Dewpoints will climb into the 50s and lower 60s for areas away from Lake Superior during this period with PWS averaging 1.00"-1.25". Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies are forecast on Saturday with partly-mostly cloudy skies for Saturday Night. A few showers or thunderstorms could develop, especially Tomorrow Night in Western-Northwest areas, but no severe weather is expected at this time. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s but it will be cooler near Lake Superior. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees but it will be cooler near Lake Superior. Winds during this period will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

The basic pattern from Sunday through at least the middle of next week will be for a southwest flow aloft to cover the Upper Midwest while an upper level trough remains in place in the Western U.S.

A cold front will head east into Minnesota on Sunday but will weaken as it does so. A fairly strong cap is forecast to be in place along and ahead of this boundary on Sunday with 700 mb temperatures of +8/+12 degrees C with 850 mb temperatures warming to between +14/+20 degrees C. The models do show some cooling taking place in the atmosphere by Sunday Afternoon and that combined with some convergence near the cold front may result in the development of a few showers and thunderstorms across our area Sunday Afternoon-Evening.

Plenty of instability is forecast to be in place around our area Sunday Afternoon with CAPES of 1500-3000 j/kg with Lifted Indices from -3/-6 degrees C. A muggy airmass will also be in place with widespread dewpoints in the 60s with PWS averaging 1.00"-1.50" with H85 td's from +12/+16 degrees C!

There will be some shear in place, although it could be better...Generally around 30 knots of 0-6 KM and Effective Bulk Shear is forecast over our area per SREF model, winds aloft will be out of the SW, generally less than 40 knots, while the low level jet isn't ideal either with speeds at or less than 30 knots, but these numbers when combined with the amount of instability that is forecast to be in place should be enough to cause a few severe thunderstorms Sunday Afternoon and Evening.

At this time it appears that Eastcentral Minnesota and portions of Northwest Wisconsin would have the best chance at seeing a few storms and possibly some severe weather late this weekend. Areas along and east of a Hibbing to Aitkin Minnesota line and west of a Bayfield to Shell Lake line in Wisconsin would be most at risk for isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds >58 mph and large hail up to 1" in diameter. Sunday Afternoon and Evening would be when any severe weather would occur the way it looks now.

High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 70s and 80s across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with lows Sunday Night in the 50s and lower 60s.

The weakening cold front that will pass through our area late this weekend will turn into a warm front on Monday. This boundary will head north and through our local area Monday Night, then will see a new cold front settle south/east out of the Northern Plains the early to mid part of next week.

The air will remain warm, moist, and unstable across the Upper Midwest from Monday-Wednesday of next week with additional chances for a few showers/thunderstorms at times. High temperatures on Monday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Monday Night in the 50s and lower 60s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy. Sprinkles possible before 8 PM. Low 45 to 50. Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. High 65 to 70 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Humid. Variable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible, mainly during the Afternoon. High 75 to 80. Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. Low 52 to 57. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday... Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 73 to 78 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 55 to 60. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 73 to 78. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 65 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 42 degrees

Tim

Thursday, May 20, 2010

5/20/10: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:38 PM CDT, Thursday, May 20th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date last year, a record high temperature of 88 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

On this date in 1986, a record low temperature of 26 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Here are some high temperatures that occurred in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday, May 19th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN. High temperatures that occurred on Wednesday were running some 10-20 degrees Above Normal for this time of year.

Duluth MN: 79 degrees

International Falls MN: 82 degrees

Hibbing MN: 81 degrees

Sky Harbor MN: 79 degrees

Silver Bay MN: 81 degrees

Orr MN: 82 degrees

Eveleth MN: 81 degrees

Ashland WI: 81 degrees

Hayward WI: 81 degrees

Superior WI: 81 degrees

Siren WI: 80 degrees

Phillips WI: 81 degrees

Cass Lake MN: 80 degrees

Littlefork MN: 82 degrees

Madeline Island WI: 83 degrees

Gordon WI: 83 degrees

Upson WI: 80 degrees

Butternut WI: 81 degrees

Weather tidbits:

*Average monthly temperature (thru the 19th) at Duluth, Minnesota: 47.7 degrees
Departure: 2.1 degrees Below Normal

*So far this month we've had 6 days with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

*May 2009 featured 5 days with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees with 1 day of an 80 degree or warmer high temperature at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Some subtle changes took place Today thanks to a cold front which has now turned stationary over Central Lake Superior. This boundary as it entered the lake earlier Today caused a lake breeze front to develop which then moved rapidly toward the south/west This Morning. A sudden wind shift to the east took place once this boundary moved through, wind speeds also picked up to between 10-25 mph near Lake Superior, temperatures also dropped from the 70s This Morning to the 50s This Afternoon. Farther Inland, another warm day occurred Today with high temperatures in the middle 70s to lower 80s! 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +14/+15 degrees C across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Mostly sunny-sunny skies covered most of our local area Today, but there has been some stratus clouds moving onshore from Lake Superior, generally affecting portions of Lake/Cook Counties in Northeast Minnesota Today. Surface map as of mid-Afternoon featured high pressure of 1026 mb centered in Southern Hudson Bay Canada. Low pressure of 1008 mb was centered in Eastern Kansas.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Northwest flow aloft covered Northeast Canada and the Northeast U.S. Today per water vapor satellite imagery as an upper level low spins around up in that area. (570 meter) upper level low was tracking east through Kansas Today with plenty of mid/high level moisture streaming north into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery. A narrow ridge of high pressure continued to cover the Upper Great Lakes Today per RUC model analysis while a cold and potent upper level trough with 500 mb temperatures from -25/-32 degrees C covered the Pacific Northwest and Western Canada Today.

Tonight:

Clear-partly cloudy skies will continue across our area Tonight with high pressure centered well to our northeast along with a stationary front which will run from Central Ontario Province to Northern Lake Superior. Lows Tonight will be in the 40s to around 50 degrees with some 30s especially closer to Lake Superior. Winds Tonight will be out of the south or east under 15 mph with some higher gusts near Lake Superior This Evening.

Friday and Friday Night:

The low pressure disturbance over Kansas Today will head east-northeast during this period. An increase in moisture will occur in our area Tomorrow with PWS which were around one half inch Today climbing to .75"-1.00" on Friday while dewpoints which have been generally in the 30s the past few days rise into the 40s for portions of our area during this period. The bulk of the steadier rain associated with that Plains system is expected to pass off to our south/southeast, but there will be a risk for some showers Friday and Friday Evening across our area, although rainfall amounts should be light, generally under 0.10". Partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies are forecast on Friday with highs in the 60s and 70s but it will be cooler near Lake Superior. Lows Friday Night will be in the 40s and 50s. Winds will be out of the south or east under 20 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

An upper level trough will develop across the Western U.S. with a southwesterly flow aloft becoming established to the east of this trough across the Plains and Upper Midwest this weekend through most of next week.

An increase in moisture thanks to southerly winds will take place across our area this weekend with dewpoints climbing into the 50s and 60s by Sunday while PWS increase to 1.00"-1.25" with 850 mb td's soaring to between +12/+16 degrees C by Sunday! Needless to say there will be quite a bit of moisture in the atmosphere by late this weekend.

Instability will also be on the rise, first in the form of elevated CAPE for Saturday/Saturday Night with a mix bag of surface based and elevated CAPE overhead on Sunday. By Sunday, the forecast models indicate that CAPES could reach the 1500-3000 j/kg range in our area which is plenty of fuel for a thunderstorm to tap into.

An area of low pressure is expected to pass well to our west/northwest this weekend. A warm front and cold front attached to this low will move north/east into Minnesota from Saturday Night through Sunday Night. As this is happening, a surge of warm air aloft will also move overhead with 850 mb temperatures rising to +12/+20 degrees C while 700 mb temperatures climb to between +8/+12 degrees C! If the cap holds, then little if any thunderstorm activity will occur across our local area from Saturday Night into Sunday Night, but if this cap breaks, then scattered thunderstorms and a threat for some severe weather would occur especially Sunday and Sunday Evening.

The threat for a few showers/thunderstorms and possibly some severe weather could then carry over at least off an on through most of next week as an upper level trough remains anchored to our west while a southwest flow of warm/moist/unstable air continues in the Upper Midwest while some low pressure disturbances embedded within that Western U.S. trough lift northeast through the Northern Plains helping to trigger this convection.

High temperatures for Saturday and Sunday will be in the 70s and 80s but it will be cooler near Lake Superior. Lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 40 to 45. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph This Evening.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. A few showers possible. High 65 to 70 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. A few showers possible early. Low 45 to 50. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. High 68 to 73 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Sunday... Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Humid. High 75 to 80 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 50 to 55. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday... Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 73 to 78. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 65 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 42 degrees

Tim

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

5/19/10: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:20 PM CDT, Wednesday, May 19th, 2010

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Another gorgeous Spring day across our local area Today with plenty of sunshine with only the far Northeast part of Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin seeing any sort of cumulus development This Afternoon. Highs Today were in the middle 70s to lower 80s with only slightly cooler temperatures by 3-5 degrees right next to Lake Superior. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM were in the +13/+14 degree C range. Surface map as of mid-Afternoon featured high pressure of 1016 mb centered in Eastern Minnesota/Western Wisconsin.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Upper level low (564 meters) covered the Northeast U.S. Upper level low (570 meters) covered a broad area from Central Rockies east to the Western High Plains/Central Plains region per RUC model analysis. Upper level ridge persisted across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest Today per RUC model analysis while a rather vigorous system approaches the Pacific Northwest per water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight through Thursday Night:

Weather pattern will remain unchanged across our area during this period as an area of high pressure remains near our local area. Mostly clear skies are forecast Tonight with lows in the 40s, but some 30s are likely in the typical cold spots. Highs Tomorrow under partly cloudy-sunny skies will top out in the 70s to lower 80s with cooler temperatures at times closer to Lake Superior. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are expected Tomorrow Night with lows in the 40s to lower 50s. Winds will be variable under 15 mph Tonight and Tomorrow with south or east winds Tomorrow Night under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

An upper level disturbance will be passing south/southeast of our local area from Friday into Saturday. It still appears that the best coverage of rain shower activity associated with this system will remain to our south, but a few rain showers could develop Friday Afternoon and linger into early Saturday...Mainly in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota, if any rain does develop during that period it looks to remain light with only trace to a few hundreths inch of precipitation amounts expected at this time. With more clouds around on Friday compared to recent days high temperatures will be slightly cooler for most areas with mainly 60s and 70s but it will be cooler near Lake Superior. Lows Friday Night will be in the 40s and 50s. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the 60s and 70s with cooler temps near Lake Superior. Lows Saturday Night will be mainly in the 50s.

An upper level trough will become established to our west from this weekend through most of next week per latest model guidance. A couple of low pressure disturbances will likely eject northeast out of the Western U.S. trough and pass west/northwest of the Upper Midwest from this weekend through next week, meanwhile a cold front should stay to our west into early next week before possibly pushing south/east across our area around Tuesday of next week, then this cold front could lift back north as a warm front around the middle of next week.

Two notable changes will take place as southerly winds develop to the east of this trough. One change will be an increase in low level moisture with dewpoints climbing into the 50s and 60s across our area by Sunday with off an on bouts of mugginess likely to persist into next week. The other change will come in the form of higher amounts of instability which could lead to some thunderstorm/severe weather events for portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest depending on the timing of individual disturbances as well as the exact path those systems will take. One thing that could hinder convection from developing around our area will be the development of a strong cap as 850 mb temperatures soar into the +15/+20 degree C range while 700 mb temperatures climb toward +12 degrees C this weekend and early next week. The fuel will be in place, but will we have a trigger to break through the cap? Stay tuned...

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 40 to 45. Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Thursday... Mostly sunny. High 75 to 80 but cooler at times closer to Lake Superior. Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50. Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. High 65 to 70 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. High 68 to 73 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Humid. High 75 to 80. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 65 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 41 degrees

Tim

Tuesday, May 18, 2010

5/18/10: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:29 PM CDT, Tuesday, May 18th, 2010

...RECORD EVENT... Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

*Today marks the 4th consecutive day with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees at Duluth, MN. A record for consecutive 70 degree temperatures is within reach at Duluth.

*4th place tied: 6 days in a row during the following year's
1978: 5/22-5/27
1958: 5/11-5/16
1953: 5/5-5/10
1944: 5/26-5/31
1934: 5/25-5/30
1919: 5/25-5/29

*2nd place tied: 7 days in a row during the following year's
1988: 5/25-5/31
1973: 5/22-5/28

*1st place occurred in 1977 (5/11-5/19) with 9 consecutive days of a high temperature of at least 70 degrees at Duluth, MN.

Weather History:

On this date in 1998 and in previous years... A record high temperature of 85 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Partly cloudy-sunny skies prevailed across our area Today as high pressure of 1018 mb sits over Western Lake Superior. Highs Today were in the middle/upper 70s for most locales with cooler 50s and 60s closer to Lake Superior. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM were sitting right around +12 degrees C.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Upper level ridge covered the Northern Plains-Upper Midwest Today while upper level troughs were affecting the Northeast U.S./Eastern Canada with another 500 mb trough heading through the Rockies.

Tonight through Wednesday Night:

High pressure will continue to dominate our weather through this period as it remains near or slightly south/east of our immediate area. Clear-partly cloudy skies will be the net result with low temperatures Tonight and Tomorrow Night generally in the 40s, but some 30s are possible in the typical cold spots. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s to around 80 degrees although it will be cooler at times closer to Lake Superior. Variable or south/west winds are forecast through this period under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Tranquil weather pattern continues from Thursday into Saturday, but there will be a disturbance passing by to our south during the Friday-Saturday time frame, at this time it looks like the bulk of the shower activity associated with that system will remain to our south. High temperatures Thursday and Friday will be mainly in the 70s across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with cooler temperatures closer to Lake Superior. Lows Thursday Night and Friday Night will be mainly in the 40s.

An upper level trough will be developing across the Western U.S. and Northern Plains this weekend and possibly lingering through most of next week per latest model guidance. Increasing southerly flow will develop across the Plains and Upper Midwest out ahead of this trough. Moisture and instability will be climbing during the weekend and into next week out ahead of this upper trough. The potential does exist for a couple rounds of showers/thunderstorms and possibly some severe weather across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest beginning this weekend and lasting at times through most of next week as the trough remains to our west while a few low pressure disturbances eject northeast out of that trough. How far east this precipitation gets will depend on how far west the upper level ridge sets-up. Temperatures look to remain on the warm side across Minnesota with 70s and 80s on tap this weekend into the middle of next week along with fairly high amounts of humidity!

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 42 to 47. Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Wednesday... Mostly sunny. High 73 to 78 but cooler at times closer to Lake Superior. Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 43 to 48. Wind south under 12 mph.

.Thursday... Mostly sunny. High 71 to 76.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. High 68 to 73 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal High Temperature Today 65 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 41 degrees

Tim

Monday, May 17, 2010

5/17/10: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:36 PM CDT, Monday, May 17th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 1988... A record low temperature of 26 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Weather tidbits: Source, NWS Duluth, MN.

*Today marks the 3rd consecutive day with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

*May 15th, 2010 was our 1st time since April 23rd, 2010 with a high temperature of at least 60 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota, and the 1st time with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees since April 15th, 2010.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A weak upper level disturbance spinning around across the Upper Midwest combined with some interaction from a lake breeze front in Northeast Minnesota has helped to trigger a few light rain showers Today across parts of Northcentral and Eastcentral Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin, none of the showers were heavy and the majority of the showers haven't lasted more than a few couple of minutes at most. These spotty showers were affecting areas away from Lake Superior Today, very similar to Sunday Afternoon. Partly-mostly sunny skies were found across our local area Today with high temperatures in the lower to middle 70s, but 50s and 60s were common closer to Lake Superior. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM were in the +10/+11 degree C range across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Winds Today were generally out of the north or east under 15 mph. Surface map This Afternoon featured an area of high pressure 1022 mb centered in far Northeast Minnesota. A trough covered areas of Southeast Minnesota while a cold front was located across Central portions of Ontario Province.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Most of the U.S. is being dominated by weak winds aloft which is a rather significant change from how the pattern has been as of late. An upper level low (570 meters) was heading east across Illinois and Indiana Today per water vapor satellite imagery. An upper level trough was found off the U.S. West Coast Today with a nice plume of mid/high level moisture spreading east across the Central Pacific and into the Western U.S. Today per water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight through Tuesday Night:

An area of high pressure will remain in control of our weather as it sits near our area. Isolated rain showers away from Lake Superior will end This Evening, then the rest of Tonight through Tomorrow Night looks dry across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, but an isolated shower can't be ruled out away from Lake Superior once again for Tuesday Afternoon. Lows Tonight and Tomorrow Night will be mainly in the 40s, but a few 30s are possible in the typical chilly spots. Highs Tomorrow will be mostly in the 70s with 50s and 60s near Lake Superior. Lows Tomorrow Night will be mainly in the 40s. Expect partly cloudy skies through this period with variable winds under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Wednesday and Thursday look just as nice as the previous three days. High temperatures in the 70s can be expected in our local area both days, but it could be cooler at times closer to Lake Superior. Lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night will be mostly in the 40s. On Friday and Saturday there will be an upper level disturbance tracking E/NE through the Plains, it doesn't appear that will see any rain this far north from that system, but it could be a close call especially if it trends slightly more to the north than what the forecast models are showing Today.

By this weekend into the early part of next week, the long range forecast models are in fairly good agreement on the development of an upper level trough to our west while a very warm airmass consisting of 850 mb temperatures of +12/+20 degrees C spreads north into the Upper Midwest along with increasing amounts of humidity (dewpoints in the 50s and 60s) High temperatures should have no problem reaching the 70s and 80s across Minnesota this weekend and early next week, with even an outside shot at 90 degrees! Wind direction will play a crucial role on whether or not any of this very warm air makes it to areas closer to Lake Superior, right now the chance doesn't look too good, but this could change.

A cold front and area of low pressure associated with the 500 mb trough to our west will make slow progress through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest during the Sunday-Tuesday time frame, this system along with ample amounts of instability which are being forecasted by the GFS model Today could trigger the first outbreak of severe thunderstorms this Spring for some portions of the aforementioned areas sometime in the Sunday-Tuesday time period.

All in all it looks like a very mild pattern through the rest of May, and possibly a more thundery one with time.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 43 to 48. Wind east under 12 mph.

.Tuesday... Mostly sunny. High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Fair. Low 43 to 48. Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Wednesday... Mostly sunny. High 70 to 75.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 43 to 48.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 67 to 72 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal High Temperature Today 64 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 41 degrees

Tim