Friday, April 30, 2010

4/30/10: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:13 PM CDT, Friday, April 30th, 2010

Updated 30 day outlook for May 2010. Issued by the Climate Prediction Center on Friday, April 30th, 2010.

For Duluth: Equal Chances for Below Normal, Above Normal, or Normal Temperatures and Precipitation.

Here are some rainfall totals across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from 7 AM CDT Thursday ending at 7 AM CDT Friday. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: 0.03"

International Falls MN: 0.45"

Brainerd MN: 0.23"

Grand Marais MN: 0.50"

Ashland WI: 0.16"

Northome MN: 0.57"

Littlefork MN: 0.48"

Note: A large storm system helped to ignite a round of severe thunderstorms across portions of the Central Plains on Thursday, April 29th, 2010. There were 77 reports of severe weather on Thursday per SPC website. The most concentrated area of severe storms was over Central Kansas, Southeast Nebraska, Northern-Western Iowa, and extreme Southern Minnesota. 5 out of the 77 reports of severe weather were in the form of tornadoes.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Strong low pressure (986 mb) was located near Baudette Minnesota or in the Northwest part of the state late Today with another strong area of low pressure (986) centered in Southeastern Saskatchewan Province Canada. This system is very dynamic and quite large, but the heavier pockets of rain have been on the scattered side during the past 24 hours. Most locations in our local area have only seen a few hundreths to around one quarter inch of rain since Thursday, with two areas of heavier rain with totals around or greater than one half inch falling in far Northern and far Northeast Minnesota with a seperate area occurring in Southeast parts of Northwest Wisconsin, generally affecting Sawyer, Price, Ashland, and Iron Counties.

Scattered thunderstorms did develop This Afternoon in a very strong shear, but low CAPE environment in portions of Northwest Wisconsin with one lone severe thunderstorm affecting Central-Southern parts of Price County WI around 3 PM Today.

Some rain showers have also occurred at times Today across Northern-Eastcentral Minnesota near the advancing occluded front, but with limited daytime heating keeping instability way down, little if any thunderstorm activity has occurred despite strong shear and good forcing in place in these areas.

Skies for the most part were mostly cloudy in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today with high temperatures ranging from the 60s and 70s in Northwest Wisconsin to the 50s in Northern Minnesota with 40s along the North Shore of Lake Superior. 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +7 to +13 degrees C with the warmest air aloft found in Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast-far Eastern Minnesota. Winds Today were varied from the south to the north, east, and west at 5-15 mph with some higher gusts.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

(534 meter 500 mb low) was centered in Northwestern North Dakota late Today per RUC model analysis with a broad and potent upper level trough covering the Rockies, Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Central Plains Today. A powerful jet stream 100-120 knots continued to streak NE out of the Central Plains Today on the southeast side of the upper low across the Northern Plains.

Tonight:

Strong low pressure averaging 986 mb will track into Southern Manitoba Province during the night. Occluded front extending southeast of this low will continue to lift northeast through Northern/Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Evening.

Scattered showers will continue This Evening with strong forcing persisting out ahead of the occluded front along with sufficient amounts of moisture to support some showers as dewpoints remain in the 45-55 degrees, PWS from 1.00"-1.40" and H85 td's of +8 to +12 degrees C.

A few thunderstorms are also possible This Evening especially in Northwest Wisconsin and to a lesser extent from Northcentral through Eastcentral Minnesota. Instability remains low, however, with CAPES at or below 250 j/kg with Lifted Indices of zero to around -2 degrees C, so despite other favorable parameters in place including high amounts of shear and a strong low/front, the lack of instability should keep any thunderstorm from turning severe This Evening.

Any thunderstorm that does develop could contain some dangerous lightning strikes, brief heavy downpours and possibly some small hail and gusty winds up to 40 mph.

As the occluded front exits to our northeast during the mid-late Evening hours, a dry slot will push in from the southwest which will end any threat for showers across our area during the Overnight hours. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will occur Tonight with lows in the 40s. Winds will shift to the south and west and increase to 10-25 mph Tonight.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

Low pressure averaging 986 mb will be centered to our northwest-north during this period. Gusty southwest winds will be found on the south flank of this storm with wind speeds from 10-25 mph with a few higher gusts possible on Saturday. Cold air aloft spreading into the Upper Midwest around this low could help to ignite a few showers Tomorrow and early Tomorrow Night, mainly across Northcentral Minnesota. Highs Tomorrow will be mainly in the 50s with some spots up North possibly holding in the 40s.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will continue to sit to our north on Sunday before it pulls away to our E/NE by next Monday. Cold advection with 850 mb temperatures falling to +2/-4 degrees C will spread south into Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Sunday and Monday which will result in high temperatures holding in the 40s and 50s both days with lows Sunday Night and Monday Night in the 30s to around 40 degrees. Spotty rain showers could develop once again on Sunday with mainly dry conditions Sunday Night into Monday Night.

The first week of May looks like a chilly one across the Upper Midwest with Tuesday being the only day where high temps could reach the 60s, except near Lake Superior. A vigorous area of low pressure will scoot east out of Southwestern Canada during the early to middle part of next week while a cold front trailing southwest of this low drops southeast through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday-Wednesday. This system could bring some showers as it moves through the area during the Tuesday/Wednesday time period.

Note: Long range model guidance over the past few days has shown another potent storm system moving into the Southern or Central Plains around the latter part of next week, should this system come far enough north, then it could bring some rain and perhaps even some early May snow to portions of the Upper Midwest sometime late next week. Right now though it appears that this storm would remain too far south to give us any precipitation.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy This Evening with scattered showers. Becoming partly cloudy late and turning breezy. Low 40 to 45. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph becoming southwest and increasing to 15 to 25 mph late.

.Saturday... Windy. Considerable cloudiness. A few showers possible. High 55 to 60. Wind southwest at 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday Night... Variable cloudiness. Low 35 to 40. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday... Mostly cloudy. High 48 to 53.

.Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.

.Monday... Partly sunny. High 50 to 55.

.Monday Night... Mostly clear. Low 35 to 40.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. High 57 to 62 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal High Temperature Today 57 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 35 degrees

Tim

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH*

Issued at 12:23 PM CDT, Friday, April 30th, 2010

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH*

...The Storm Prediction Center has issued *Severe Thunderstorm Watch* number 112 which is in effect until 700 PM CDT This Evening for Northeastern Iowa...Far Western Upper Michigan...Southeastern Minnesota...Western Wisconsin...And Lake Superior.

Hazards: Hail to 1" in diameter...Thunderstorm wind gusts to 70 mph...And Dangerous Lightning are possible in these areas.

The severe thunderstorm watch is approximately along and 60 statue miles east and west of a line from 90 miles South-Southwest of La Crosse Wisconsin to 25 miles North-Northeast of Ironwood Michigan.

Counties included in the watch are:

Douglas WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Iron WI...Burnett WI...Washburn WI...Sawyer WI...And Price WI...

Some Cities included in the watch:

Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Cable WI...Ashland WI...Butternut WI...Mercer WI...Upson WI...Hurley WI...Danbury WI...Grantsburg WI...Siren WI...Minong WI...Shell Lake WI...Hayward WI...Winter WI...Park Falls WI...And Phillips WI...

Remember a severe thunderstorm watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area, persons in these areas should be on the lookout for rapidly changing weather conditions and listen for further statements and possible warnings.

Tim

Thursday, April 29, 2010

4/29/10: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:46 PM CDT, Thursday, April 29th, 2010

Latest drought information as of Tuesday, April 27th, 2010.

*Severe drought conditions (D2 level) covers all of Cook, most of Lake, and Eastern St. Louis Counties in Northeast Minnesota. The rest of Northern/Eastcentral Minnesota is under abnormally dry and or moderate drought conditions (D0-D1 level)

*All of Northwest Wisconsin...Including the Counties of Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...Iron...Burnett...Washburn...Sawyer...And Price are under moderate or severe drought conditions (D1-D2 level)

Weather tidbits:

*A weak sunspot has been observed Today per spaceweather.com website, Today marks the end of a 13 day streak without any activity on the sun.

*April 1st thru April 28th, 2010 precipitation total at Duluth, MN: 0.51"
Departure: 1.42" below normal

*Only 6 days this month (thru the 28th) has had measurable precipitation (>0.01") at Duluth, MN.

*April 2nd, 2010 was the last time we had a quarter inch or more of rain at Duluth, MN. Rainfall total that day was 0.29".

*The other 5 rain totals this month ranged from 0.01"-0.09".

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Strong low pressure (988 mb) was centered near Britton South Dakota (Northeast part of the state) as of mid-Afternoon. An occluded front attached to this low extended through Southwestern Minnesota. Strong southerly low level jet of around 40 knots continued out ahead of this storm Today from the Central Plains north into the Upper Midwest. Moisture has increased due to the LLJ advecting 40+ degree dewpoints north into Western-Southern parts of our local area Today with more humid 50-55 degree dewpoints beginning to surge north into Southern portions of Minnesota late Today. Even juicier air (dews in the 60s) were streaming north out of Texas into Central Oklahoma This Afternoon. PWS have surged to between 0.75"-0.90" in our area Today while 850 mb td's have climbed to +6 degrees C in Southern areas as of late Today. There was an area of sprinkles and light rain showers that passed north/east through parts of Northern/Eastern Minnesota Today due to the initial increase in moisture, this line of very light rain or sprinkles continued to march northeast through far Northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead of Minnesota late This Afternoon. Some recent spotty sprinkles/drizzle was developing in patches across parts of Northeast/Northcentral Minnesota late Today as moisture continues to increase. High temperatures Today were in the middle 40s to lower 50s from Superior and Downtown Duluth and up the North Shore of Lake Superior with 60s common in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota with 50s in Northcentral Minnesota. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +4 to +8 degrees C from northwest to southeast in our local area. Winds Today were out of the south or east at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

A very large upper level trough was in place over the Western U.S. Today per water vapor satellite imagery. Southwest flow aloft was occurring across the Plains or on the east side of this upper trough. A lead disturbance has been lifting north into Northwestern Minnesota This Afternoon. An upper level low (534 meters) covered Montana and adjacent areas of Southwestern Canada Today while a 110-130 knot jet streak was found across the Southwest U.S. or on the S-SE side of this big 500 mb trough.

Tonight:

Strong low pressure averaging 987 mb will continue to move generally north across Western Minnesota while an occluded front trailing south/southeast of this low pushes northeast through the night. Dewpoints in the 40s to around 50 degrees along with PWS of 0.75"-1.00" and 850 mb td's ranging from +6/+10 degrees C will be found in our area ahead of this system Tonight. A strong low level jet upwards of 40 knots will also continue, especially This Evening. Scattered showers will develop at times along with some areas of drizzle and fog Tonight with a few thunderstorms also occurring across parts of our area This Evening into the early Morning hours of Friday. Shear is running high Today, but limited CAPE (generally around 250 j/kg) and low amounts of moisture should keep any thunderstorm from becoming severe Tonight. Occasional lightning strikes and brief heavy downpours would be the main hazards out of any thunderstorm Tonight. Mostly cloudy skies will cover Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with some patchy fog possible. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s with south or east winds under 20 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

Low pressure number one pulls off to our northwest on Friday while a secondary low (averaging 986 mb) which was currently over Southeast Colorado (near Trinidad 984 mb) heads north-northeast into the Upper Midwest for Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night. The occluded front moving into our local area Tonight will stall out and turn into a cold front Friday Afternoon-Evening as it lifts northeast through Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Meanwhile a warm front which was moving into Northern Iowa late Today will lift northeast and may reach Northcentral parts of Wisconsin by Friday Afternoon.

Airmass will be somewhat humid ahead of this complex system on Friday with dewpoints in the 50s in Northwest Wisconsin and far Eastern Minnesota. It also appears that the atmosphere will become marginally unstable Friday Afternoon with CAPES generally around 500 j/kg across Northwest Wisconsin along with Lifted Indices of zero/-2 degrees C.

Shear will continue to be impressive on Friday across Northwest Wisconsin with a southerly H85 jet increasing to 30-45 knots while 70+ knot 500 mb winds from the southwest approach the area from the Plains. 0-6 KM Bulk Shear is extremely high Tomorrow while the Effective Shear increases to around 45 knots or so. This is more than sufficient to support severe weather, but questions regarding the track of the secondary low and how the front sets-up Tomorrow/Tomorrow Evening as well as to the amount of moisture and instability in place is in question, as a result only an isolated risk for severe weather is forecasted Friday Afternoon and Friday Evening...Mainly affecting the following Counties in Northwest Wisconsin...Washburn, Sawyer, Price, and possibly into Ashland and Iron. If severe weather does develop Tomorrow, large hail and damaging winds would be the main hazards.

Across Northern/Eastern Minnesota, expect some rain to fall at times Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with a few thunderstorms possible as well, mainly in far Eastern Minnesota.

Mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with a tight thermal gradient developing with highs in the 40s in Northern Minnesota to the 60s and maybe even a few 70s in Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Tomorrow Night will be mainly in the 40s. Winds will be out of the south, east, or north on Friday with south or west winds Friday Night. Wind speeds will range from 10-25 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Strong low pressure averaging 983 mb will be tracking into and through Central Canada this weekend. Some cold air aloft on the backside of this low could touch off a few instability rain showers both Saturday and Sunday across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. High temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s both days with lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night in the 30s to lower 40s.

Expected rainfall totals from Tonight through early Saturday:

On average about 0.10"-0.35" of rain is forecast to fall across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, but localized higher totals greater than 0.50" are possible in any thunderstorm.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Scattered showers or thunderstorms possible between 8 PM-1 AM. Low 45 to 50 and around 40 near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers. A few thunderstorms also possible, mainly during the Afternoon. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers. A few thunderstorms also possible, mainly early. Low 40 to 45. Wind shifting southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

.Saturday... Considerable cloudiness. A few showers possible. High 55 to 60. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday Night... Variable cloudiness. Low 35 to 40.

.Sunday... Partly sunny. High 50 to 55.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 50 to 55.

Normal High Temperature Today 56 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 34 degrees

Tim

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

4/28/10: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:45 PM CDT, Wednesday April 28th, 2010

Cold start to the day around portions of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Here are some low temperatures that occurred earlier Today, source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: 28 degrees

Hibbing MN: 21 degrees

Two Harbors MN: 21 degrees

Silver Bay MN: 18 degrees

Grand Marais MN: 18 degrees

Ashland WI: 19 degrees

Superior WI: 23 degrees

Hayward WI: 18 degrees

Butternut WI: 20 degrees

Upson WI: 19 degrees

Weather History:

On this date in 1994... 5.0" of snow fell at Duluth, MN.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Southerly flow has commenced in our area Today as high pressure of 1014 mb moves into the Central/Southern Great Lakes while a few strong low pressure centers ranging from 986-996 mb track through the Rockies. The pressure gradient has tightened Today allowing for some gusty south and southeast winds across our area, wind speeds of 10-25 mph have occurred Today with a few higher gusts in Western parts of our area. Note: 30-50 mph S/SE winds have occurred Today over parts of Western Minnesota! To go along with the strong winds, humidity levels were very low with Afternoon dewpoints only in the teens, 20s, and 30s around our area with relative humidity values of just 10%-35%. The combination of the wind and low humidity has resulted in extreme fire danger in all of Northern Minnesota Today with very high fire danger in Northwest Wisconsin. Red Flag Warnings have been issued by the National Weather Service for portions of our area due to the potential of extreme fire weather growth. High temperatures were in the 50s and 60s across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today with 40s along the North Shore of Lake Superior. 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +4 to +7 degrees C from northeast to southwest in our area.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

500 mb ridge covered the Upper Midwest Today per RUC model analysis. Upper level trough was digging south/east out of the Pacific Northwest late Today per water vapor satellite imagery with a (534-540 meter) H5 low spinning around across Montana and adjacent areas of Southwest Canada. A strong jet stream up to 130 knots was in place from Central California through the Central Rockies or on the S/SE side of the upper low/trough. Southwest flow aloft was developing Today across the Northern Plains/Western High Plains as this Western system pushes east. A vigorous upper level trough and northwest flow aloft continued to cover the Northeast U.S. and Eastern Canada Today per RUC model analysis with some heavy Spring snow being reported in parts of New England and nearby states over the past 24 hours.

Tonight:

*Red Flag Warning* is in effect until 8 PM CDT This Evening for the following Counties in Minnesota... Koochiching MN...Itasca MN...Cass MN...Crow Wing MN...And Aitkin MN...

Low level jet of 35-45 knots will overspread the area Tonight with warm/moist advection beginning to occur Overnight. Strong low pressure (around 987 mb) will remain over the Northern Rockies/Western High Plains through the night. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will cover Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with a few light showers or sprinkles possible in Western/Northern areas. Lows Tonight will be in the 30s and 40s. Winds will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Strong low pressure averaging 985 mb will be tracking N/NE out of the Western High Plains and is forecast to reach Western Minnesota by Thursday Night. A warm front, occluded front/cold front attached to this low will be moving north/east across our area through this period. Southerly 850 mb jet of 30-50 knots will occur at times during this period out ahead of this dynamic system. Moisture will continue to increase, but with that said it does not appear that will see dewpoints get much higher than the 40s to around 50 degrees around this area. PWS are forecast to increase from around one quarter inch This Afternoon to around 1.00" by Tomorrow Afternoon while 850 mb td's rise to around +8 degrees C.

Scattered showers will likely occur at times Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night across our area with a few thunderstorms possible as well, especially from late Tomorrow Afternoon into Tomorrow Night.

The Storm Prediction Center has included Southern portions of our area in a *Slight Risk* for Severe Thunderstorms Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night... This would include the Counties of...Crow Wing MN...Aitkin MN...Pine MN...Burnett WI...And Washburn WI...

Instability doesn't look too impressive this far north with CAPES generally around 150-350 j/kg with LI'S around zero/-1 degree C.

I don't believe severe weather will be a huge factor anywhere in this area due to the limited moisture/instability, but with the overall dynamics of this system (110+ knot jet) pushing into the Plains we should see at least some general thunderstorm activity across parts of our area by Tomorrow/Tomorrow Night.

Partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies are expected on Thursday with highs in the 50s and 60s, 40s near Lake Superior. Mostly cloudy skies will occur Tomorrow Night with lows in the 40s and 50s. Winds will be out of the south or east on Thursday at 10-25 mph with south, east, or west winds Tomorrow Night generally under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Strong low pressure averaging 983 mb will pass by to our northwest/north from Friday into Saturday while we could see a secondary low track from the Plains toward the Upper Great Lakes during the Friday-early Saturday time frame. A cold front will continue to move east across the Upper Midwest on Friday while the 500 mb trough settles into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest for Friday/Saturday.

Some showers could persist at times across our area on Friday with an isolated risk for thunderstorms, mainly in Northwestern Wisconsin the way it looks now. A few showers are possible on Saturday, mostly in Northern Minnesota.

High temperatures Friday and Saturday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Friday Night and Saturday Night in the 40s, but some 30s are possible in Western areas for Saturday Night.

Rainfall totals from Thursday through Saturday:

0.10"-0.25" of rain is forecast throughout Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with localized higher amounts in any thunderstorm.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 38 to 43. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday... Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers possible. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Low 43 to 48. Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Friday... Considerable cloudiness. Showers possible. High 55 to 60. Chance of rain 40%.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 40 to 45. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. Showers possible. High 55 to 60. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday Night... Variable cloudiness. Low 35 to 40.

.Sunday... Partly sunny. High 50 to 55.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 56 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 34 degrees

Tim

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Photos of Lake Superior 4/27/2010






















Here are some pics I took Today from Park Point, around Sky Harbor Airport, and Skyline Drive in Duluth, Minnesota. Enjoy!
The rest of my photos can be found on my Facebook page:
www.facebook.com/timothy.burr1
Tim












4/27/10: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:53 PM CDT, Tuesday, April 27th, 2010

...All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Mostly sunny-partly cloudy skies were found throughout our area Today with high temperatures ranging from the 40s near Lake Superior with 50s to lower 60s elsewhere. 850 mb temperatures as of 7 PM ranged from +2 to +6 degrees C from east to west across our area. Winds Today were out of the north or east generally under 20 mph. Surface map early This Evening featured high pressure of 1014 mb centered near the Apostle Islands (South Shore of Lake Superior) A weak trough covered Northwest Minnesota and Eastern Manitoba Province.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Upper level trough was shifting east out of the Western Great Lakes early This Evening per water vapor satellite imagery. This trough covered Eastern Canada as well as the Central and Southern Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley valley region with a (528 meter) H5 low centered in Northern New York. An upper level ridge covered the Northern/Central Plains while a strong upper level trough associated with 60-90 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls tracks into areas west of the Rockies. A strong jet 120-140 knots was found from the Central Pacific Ocean through Central California late Today on the south side of the swirling 500 mb low which covered the Pacific Northwest.

Tonight:

High pressure will be in control of our weather Tonight resulting in mostly clear skies while lows drop into the 20s and 30s, maybe even a few teens in the typical cold spots. Areas of frost are possible Overnight. Winds Tonight will be out of the north, east, or south under 15 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Note: *Fire Weather Watch* is in effect from Wednesday Afternoon through Wednesday Evening for parts of Northcentral Minnesota. Counties included in the watch are: Koochiching MN...Itasca MN...Cass MN...Crow Wing MN...And Aitkin MN...

Southerly flow will develop across our area during this period as strong low pressure around 990 mb heads east across the Northern Rockies. Mostly sunny skies are forecast on Wednesday with partly-mostly cloudy skies for Wednesday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s and 60s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s and 40s. Winds during this period will be out of the south or east at 10-25 mph. Most of our area should remain dry this period, but a few showers could develop late Wednesday Night in Western areas, mainly in Cass and Crow Wing Counties Minnesota.

Extended Forecast:

A large upper level trough will head east out of the Western U.S. from Thursday through Friday while strong low pressure averaging 985 mb passes by to our W/NW by Friday while a secondary low develops over the Plains and lifts N/NE toward Lake Superior sometime Friday into early Saturday.

Southerly flow will continue ahead of the trough which will transport a more humid airmass north into our area. Dewpoints are expected to reach the 40s to lower 50s in most of our area for Thursday and Friday while PWS increase to around .75"-1.00" later this week.

Showers will be possible at times across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Thursday into Friday, but how much rain falls and how widespread it will be remain uncertain at this time due to the models not being in very good agreement on the overall speed of this system. The GFS model continues to be the quickest of the models with the 15z SREF following suit whereas the NAM-WRF, EUROPEAN, and GEM-GLOBAL models offer a slower solution. The slower solution would result in a better chance for some decent rain totals across most of our area with a threat for scattered thunderstorms as well. The faster solutions would result in less rainfall and little if any thunderstorm activity. The models should converge on a common solution within the next 24 hours.

The weather this weekend is also uncertain at this time, and it will depend on where the 500 mb low sets-up, if it's far enough to our north, then mainly dry conditions would occur with just isolated showers mainly in Northern areas...If the upper low is farther south, then showers would become somewhat more frequent.

High temperatures for Thursday and Friday will be mainly in the 50s and 60s with cooler temps near Lake Superior. Lows Thursday Night and Friday Night will be in the 40s to around 50 degrees.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 27 to 32. Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Mostly sunny. High 57 to 62 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 57 to 62 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers and isolated thunderstorms. Low 43 to 48. Chance of rain 40%.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. Showers and isolated thunderstorms. High 55 to 60. Chance of rain 40%.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 40 to 45. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. Showers possible. High 55 to 60. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 56 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 34 degrees

Tim

Monday, April 26, 2010

4/26/10: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:47 PM CDT, Monday, April 26th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 1996, a record low temperature of 20 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

...RECORD WARM APRIL... Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

*16 days during April 2010 at International Falls, Minnesota has had a high temperature at or above 60 degrees. The record of 22 days was set in 1987.

*20 days during April 2010 at Brainerd, Minnesota has had a high temperature at or above 60 degrees. The record of 22 days was set in 1987. April 2010 will likely break the '87 record.

11 days during April 2010 at Duluth, Minnesota has had a high temperature at or above 60 degrees. The record of 15 days was set in 1987. 2nd place occurred during the years 1955 and 1952 with 13 days. 3rd place occurred during the years 1977 and 1950 with 12 days.

Weather tidbits:

*Thru April 25th, 2010 the average monthly temperature at Duluth, MN was 46.1 degrees which is 8.3 degrees Above Normal.

*0.51" of precipitation has fallen so far this month at Duluth, MN which is 1.20" Below Normal

*Since March 1st, we've had 1.45" of precipitation at Duluth, MN which is 1.95" Below Normal.

*Since January 1st, we've had 2.96" of precipitation at Duluth, MN which is 2.39" Below Normal.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A weak stationary front was centered over the Eastern Dakotas and Southwest Minnesota This Afternoon with high pressure 0f 1024 mb centered in Southwest Saskatchewan with a 1018 mb high building south into Northern Ontario Province. Partly cloudy-sunny skies were found across our local area Today with high temperatures in the 50s and 60s with 40s along the North Shore of Lake Superior into Downtown Duluth. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +3 to +5 degrees C in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Winds Today were out of the north or east at 5-15 mph with some higher gusts. The airmass was very dry across our area Today with Afternoon PWS hovering around one quarter inch while humidity values were around 20%, result from this was the DNR putting all of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin in High or Very High Fire Danger Today.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

An amplified pattern continued Today. Upper level low (546 meters) covered Eastern Nebraska-Western Iowa and was moving toward the south/east. A large upper level trough (526-546 meters) was in place across Eastern Canada and is showing signs of backing up (moving west/southwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery) Upper level ridge was building into the Northern Rockies Today per RUC model analysis while a new 500 mb trough approaches the Pacific Northwest while extending into British Columbia and the Northeast Pacific.

Tonight:

A chilly airmass currently NE of Lake Superior with late day H85 temperatures of zero to -6 degrees C will advect southwest and into most of our area during the night. Expect clear-partly cloudy skies Tonight with lows generally in the 30s, but some 20s perhaps even a few teens are possible in the traditional cold spots. Winds Tonight will be out of the north or east under 20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

High pressure control's our weather during this period. Partly cloudy-sunny skies can be expected on Tuesday with highs in the 50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior. Lows Tomorrow Night will be mainly in the 30s. East winds under 20 mph are expected Tuesday and Tuesday Night.

Extended Forecast:

Upper level ridge will head east into our area by mid-week, dry weather will continue Wednesday into Wednesday Night with highs in the 50s and 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s. Changes take place from Thursday into the weekend as a large upper level trough develops in the Western U.S. putting our area in a southwesterly flow aloft. Moisture will begin to increase by Thursday and Friday as deep low pressure (around 982 mb) tracks into the Western High Plains/Northern Plains while a low level jet increases toward 50 knots! It does appear that will see some rain across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Thursday and Friday, but amounts are in question at this time. This system continues to look very dynamic on all the models Today, so isolated thunderstorms could also occur, but severe weather isn't expected at this time. Showers at least scattered in nature could then linger into the weekend depending on how the upper level low/trough set-up during that time. The system late this week also looks like it will produce more gusty winds across our area. Southeast winds ahead of the low will turn southwest in wake of the system. Wind gusts will likely exceed 25 mph from Thursday into Saturday.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Clear. Low 30 to 35. Wind east to northeast at 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph, mainly This Evening.

.Tuesday... Mostly sunny. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 30 to 35. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 40 to 45.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. Showers possible. High 57 to 62 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers and isolated thunderstorms. Low 43 to 48. Chance of rain 40%.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. Showers and isolated thunderstorms. High 55 to 60. Chance of rain 40%.

Normal High Temperature Today 55 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 33 degrees

Tim

Sunday, April 25, 2010

4/25/10: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:41 PM CDT, Sunday, April 25th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 1990, a record high temperature of 81 degrees occurred at Duluth MN.

Here are some rainfall totals from Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from 7 AM CDT Saturday ending at 7 AM CDT Sunday. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN (St. Louis County) 0.10"

Brainerd MN (Crow Wing County) 0.42"

Hibbing MN (St. Louis County) 0.06"

Hayward WI (Sawyer County) 0.10"

Bruno MN (Pine County) 0.20"

Butternut WI (Ashland County) 0.22"

Note: A deadly severe weather outbreak occurred on Saturday, April 24th, 2010 across much of Dixie Alley on north into portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley. There were 256 reports of severe weather on Saturday with 54 out of those 256 reports coming in the form of tornadoes! The strongest tornadoes occurred in Northeast Louisiana through Central Mississippi into Northern Alabama. There were some injuries and deaths in Mississippi due to the severe weather on Saturday.

Note: Fire Danger has dropped for most of our area thanks to some rain that fell during the past 24 hours. All of Northwest Wisconsin had Moderate Fire Danger Today while far Northern Minnesota continues to have High Fire Danger with the rest of Eastcentral and Northcentral Minnesota reporting Low to Moderate Fire Danger Today per DNR website.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Strong low pressure (988 mb) was centered along the Western Indiana/Eastern Illinois state line This Afternoon. This storm brought some rain to areas south of the Iron Range on Saturday into early Today with most locations receiving light amounts, generally under one quarter inch. Gusty winds did occur around this low Today with east/northeast winds of 10-25 mph with gusts over 30 mph near Lake Superior. Highs Today were mainly in the 50s to lower 60s, but mid 40s to around 50 degrees were common near Lake Superior. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +4 to +6 degrees C.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

It's a fairly amplified upper level pattern as we close out the last weekend of April. Water vapor satellite imagery shows one slow moving upper level low (546 meters) covering the Southern Great Lakes. An upper level trough was digging slowly south/southeast out of Saskatchewan Province Canada into Montana and the Western Dakotas. Broad upper level troughing covered Eastern Canada. A rather strong upper level low was spreading east/northeast across the Northeast Pacific.

Tonight:

Low pressure along the Illinois-Indiana border This Afternoon along with it's 500 mb low will continue to work east through the night while a cold front currently draped over the Northern Plains along with an upper level trough digging S/SE out of the Northern Rockies will remain well west-southwest of our local area Tonight. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with lows in the 30s to around 40 degrees. Winds will be out of the northeast or east at 5-15 mph, but stronger gusts from 15-30 mph will persist, especially near Lake Superior.

Monday and Monday Night:

An upper level trough along with a cold front will remain to our west/south during this period. Dry conditions are forecast across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with highs in the 50s and 60s, except 40s near Lake Superior. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 20s and 30s. Winds will be out of the north or east under 20 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Upper level ridge will work into the Upper Midwest by mid-week, dry conditions will prevail in our area for Tuesday and Wednesday as this ridge works east. Highs for Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 50s and 60s, a few locales could approach 70 degrees on Wednesday. It will be cooler though near Lake Superior, especially on Tuesday. Lows Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees.

A large trough of low pressure is still forecast to develop in the Western U.S. by mid-week putting our area in a southwesterly flow aloft. Still seeing some differences with the models Today concerning the track and timing of the upper trough and low pressure. It does appear that will see some showers around Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Thursday into Friday, and perhaps into next weekend as well. The threat for thunderstorms seem fairly low at this point, unless the trough and associated low/fronts progress slower into our area which would allow better moisture and instability to make it this far north. The dynamics with this system look fairly impressive right now, and if we can get enough warmth, moisture, and instability up this way, then we could be dealing with at least an isolated severe weather risk later this week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Breezy. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 40. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

.Monday... Partly sunny. High 52 to 57 but in the 40s near Lake Superior. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 55 to 60.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 33 to 38.

.Wednesday... Mostly sunny. High 60 to 65.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 40 to 45.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. Showers possible. High 57 to 62 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 54 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 33 degrees

Tim

Saturday, April 24, 2010

4/24/10: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:26 PM CDT, Saturday, April 24th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 1990, a record high temperature of 82 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Note: Severe weather outbreak on Friday, April 23rd, 2010 resulted in 150 reports of severe weather across the Central-Southern Plains per Storm Prediction Center. 8 out of the 150 reports were tornadoes.

A much larger tornado outbreak has been occurring Today across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama with the tornado count up to 37 as of late Today.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure (992 mb) was centered in Southeast Missouri This Afternoon with an occluded front across Northcentral Iowa. A cold front covered Northwest Minnesota and Eastern North Dakota with a stationary front across Southern Ontario Province to Northern Lake Superior. The heaviest rains as expected fell in Southern portions of our area Today associated with the large/complex storm to our south. The Counties of Crow Wing, Aitkin, and Pine in Minnesota as well as Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer, and Price Counties in Northwest Wisconsin saw the most rain Today. Generally speaking about one quarter inch of rain fell in these areas since earlier Today, but some locally higher amounts likely occurred. Only light rain or sprinkles reached as far north as the Twin Ports with little if any rain occurring from the Iron Range on North. Overcast skies covered most of our area Today, although there has been some sunshine in extreme Northern and far Northeast Minnesota. Highs Today were stuck in the 40s and 50s, but warmer 60s occurred in far Northern Minnesota. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +6 to +8 degrees C. A tight moisture gradient was found over our local area Today with PWS ranging from 0.90"-1.00" in parts of Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota with much drier air (with .30"-.50" half inch PWS) in place in far Northeast Minnesota. Dewpoints ranged from the mid 40s in Southern areas to the upper teens in the Arrowhead of Minnesota!

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Large upper level low (552 meters) covered the Central Plains This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis. This system continues to deepen late Today with a 100-110 knot jet streak found on the S-SE side of this system across Louisiana. Somewhat of a deformation zone covered much of the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest Today on the NW-N side of this powerful Spring storm.

Tonight:

Low pressure will deepen to around 987 mb as it tracks from Southeast Missouri toward Southeast or Eastcentral Illinois by dawn. Stationary front off to our north will more or less turn into a cold front Tonight as it settles south into our area. Rain threat will be highest before Midnight and will affect areas along and south of a line from Walker to Silver Bay, most locations within this area will only see some light rain at times with amounts under one tenth of an inch, but a few heavier showers will continue early This Evening south of the Twin Ports. The majority of the rain should end by late Tonight. Expect partly-mostly cloudy skies Tonight with lows in the 30s and 40s. Winds will be out of the east or north at 10-20 mph with a few higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

Strong low pressure passes southeast of Chicago Illinois on Sunday and farther east by Sunday Night with high pressure off to our north. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecast across our area during this period. A few showers are possible on Sunday in Southwest areas, near Brainerd, but nothing significant is expected. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s and 60s with much cooler temps near Lake Superior. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s and 40s. Winds during this period will be out of the north or east at 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

An upper level disturbance will drop south into the Northern Plains early next week but will remain too far west-south of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin to give us any rain, so it looks like mainly dry conditions will occur for our area from next Monday through next Wednesday. High temperatures for Monday and Tuesday will be in the 50s and 60s but it will remain cooler near Lake Superior. Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be mainly in the 30s.

Looks like a rather large 500 mb trough will set-up across the Western U.S. from mid to late next week putting the Upper Midwest in a southwest flow aloft. It does appear that will see one if not more low pressure systems eject out of this upper trough, but the exact details and timing of these systems are uncertain right now. Showers and maybe even some thunderstorms will occur across most of our area between next Thursday and next weekend, but it's too early to tell if any of this rain will be heavy and also if any risk for severe weather will occur this far north. Either one of those possibilities could become a reality depending on how everything evolves later next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Breezy. Occasional light rain and sprinkles ending between 7 PM-10 PM. Considerable cloudiness. Low 37 to 42. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts.

.Sunday... Breezy. Partly sunny. High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph with a few higher gusts.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 35 to 40. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday... Partly sunny. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 55 to 60.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 33 to 38.

.Wednesday... Mostly sunny. High 60 to 65.

Normal High Temperature Today 53 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 32 degrees

Tim

Friday, April 23, 2010

4/23/10: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:41 PM CDT, Friday, April 23rd, 2010

Drought update as of Tuesday, April 20th, 2010.

The latest drought monitor index has most of Northern Minnesota including the Counties of Cook...Lake...St. Louis...Carlton...All but Western Pine...Most of Koochiching...Itasca...Eastern Cass...Northeast Crow Wing...And the Northern half of Aitkin County under D1 Level Drought or Moderate Drought Conditions.

D1 and D2 Level Drought conditions cover all of Northwestern Wisconsin with the worst conditions impacting the Cities of Spooner...Shell Lake...Hayward...Cable...Glidden...Butternut...And Mercer.

Weather tidbits:

*Fire Danger remains Very High or Extreme Today across all of Northern Minnesota with High or Very High Fire Danger covering all of Northwestern Wisconsin.

*113 Severe Weather Reports occurred on Thursday, April 22nd, 2010 per SPC. 37 out of those 113 reports came in the form of Tornadoes...Eastern Colorado, Western Kansas, and the Texas Panhandle were areas that saw the tornado activity on Thursday.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A very pleasant Spring day across the area Today with partly cloudy-sunny skies with high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s with cooler 40s and 50s from Superior and Downtown Duluth up along the North Shore of Lake Superior. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM were sitting right around +8 to +9 degrees C across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Winds Today were out of the south or east under 20 mph. The air remains very dry once again Today with Afternoon dewpoints only in the 20s and 30s across our area with PWS of 0.30"-0.50". Surface map late This Afternoon featured strong low pressure (990 mb) centered along the Eastern Colorado-Western Kansas border. Low pressure of 1008 mb was centered in Eastern Ontario Province with a cold front attached to this low extending in a west-east fashion from Southern Manitoba Province through Central Ontario Province.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Potent upper level low (546 meters) was hugging the Colorado-Kansas state line This Afternoon per RUC model analysis with 60-120 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls spreading east across the Plains Today. Southwest flow aloft was evident on water vapor satellite imagery across most of the Upper Midwest, but our local area and especially to our N/NE remain in a W/NW flow aloft, although the NW flow in our area has relaxed considerably compared to recent days.

Tonight:

Strong low pressure along with a potent upper level low will track slowly east through Kansas Tonight. Deeper moisture with PWS of 1.00" and dewpoints in the 40s which was helping to generate some rain across parts of Southern Minnesota Today will begin to lift north Tonight with some rain showers expected to develop during the night mainly South of a line from Brainerd to Park Falls. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will cover our area Tonight with lows in the 30s and 40s. Winds will be out of the south or east under 20 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

Low pressure will track slowly east across the Plains during this period. Areas of rain are expected to occur north of this low with some of this rain affecting portions of our area. Right now it looks like the bulk of the rain with amounts of around 0.10" will occur south of a line from Cass Lake to Silver Bay, with Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota having the best chance for picking up more than one quarter inch of rain the way it looks now. Locations from the Iron Range on North may not see much more than a few light rain showers or sprinkles out of this system. Mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with highs on Saturday in the 40s and 50s with 60s in Northern areas. Lows Saturday Night will be in the 30s and 40s. Easterly winds of 10-20 mph will occur during this period with some stronger gusts, mainly near Lake Superior.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will deepen further on Sunday as it passes near or slightly S/SE of Chicago Illinois, this low will then track farther east by Sunday Evening. Some rain showers could linger into Sunday across parts of Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota to the northwest of this system. Highs on Sunday will be mainly in the 50s, but it will be cooler near Lake Superior. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecast Sunday Night with lows in the 30s to around 40 degrees. Early next week looks dry at the moment for Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with any showers associated with a potent upper level disturbance which Today was over Southwestern Canada remaining to our west/southwest as that system drops into the Northern Plains late this weekend/early next week. Highs on Monday will be in the 50s and 60s across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. Lows Monday Night will be generally in the 30s.

The period from late next week into next week could feature two rather strong storm systems affecting the Upper Midwest per latest long range model guidance. The exact details concerning the track, timing, and intensity of both systems are still a little uncertain Today, but right now it would appear that some rain will occur at times between next Thursday and next Sunday, the rain could also be accompanied by some gusty winds and perhaps some thunderstorm activity as well.

Note: It appears that we may be going into a somewhat more active/wetter pattern across the Upper Midwest starting with this weekend's system, and what could be two rather potent systems late next week/next weekend. It's even possible that we may be dealing with some threat for severe weather sometime between Thursday and Sunday of next week, but there's still plenty of time to monitor that threat.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Increasing cloudiness. Low 40 to 45. Wind southeast to east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday... Breezy and cooler with occasional light rain. Overcast. High 47 to 52 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

.Saturday Night... Breezy. Light rain possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 40. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts. Chance of rain 60%.

.Sunday... Breezy. Considerable cloudiness. High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior. East to northeast wind could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

.Sunday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.

.Monday... Partly sunny. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 55 to 60.

Normal High Temperature Today 53 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 32 degrees

Tim

Thursday, April 22, 2010

4/22/10: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:33 PM CDT, Thursday, April 22nd, 2010

A cold start to the day across parts of our area. Here are some low temperatures from Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from earlier Today.

Duluth MN: 26 degrees

Hibbing MN: 17 degrees

Silver Bay MN: 16 degrees

Ashland WI: 19 degrees

Superior WI: 21 degrees

Embarrass MN: 18 degrees

7 miles Northwest of Two Harbors MN: 17 degrees

Weather tidbits:

*The high temperature of 39 degrees at Duluth, MN on Wednesday, April 21st, 2010 ended our streak of consecutive days with an Above Normal High Temperature at 26 days. The period from March 26th thru April 20th featured Above Normal High Temperatures every day! The 39 degree high temperature on Wednesday was actually 13 degrees Below Normal for the 21st of April.

*Another streak, this one 27 days in a row with an Above Normal High Temperature in Duluth, MN occurred from February 26th thru March 24th, but similar to this past streak, this one was also interrupted by one day that featured a Below Normal High Temperature which came on March 25th when the high temperature was 29 degrees!

*Severe weather outbreak is forecast across much of the Central/Southern Plains as well as the Ohio Valley region during the next three days. This will be the first real big severe weather outbreak of 2010 and will feature the potential of long track dangerous tornadoes, damaging winds, and very large hail!

First Spring without measurable snowfall at Duluth, MN? Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

So far this Spring only a trace of snow has fallen at Duluth, MN. Never has a Spring season failed to produce measurable snowfall in Duluth. Only 8 April's have recorded a trace or less of snowfall. April 2010 would be the 9th. The last time this occurred was in 2006. The rest are: 1976, 1938, 1905, 1901, 1899, 1897, and 1892. Only 1 year (1938) out of those 8 produced a measurable snowfall in May. Overall, there have been 43 May's with measurable snowfall out of 119 on record, or about 1 in 3 May's has had measurable snow. In fact, May 1954 had the most days with measurable snow in Duluth with 6.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

All is quiet around our area once again Today with high pressure of 1012-1014 mb off to our east providing the area with mainly sunny skies with warmer temperatures for most areas. Highs Today were mainly in the 60s, but 40s and 50s were common near Lake Superior. 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +2 to +6 degrees from northeast to southwest across our area. Winds Today were variable or east under 15 mph. A very dry airmass continued to sit on top of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today with Afternoon dewpoints holding in the teens and some 20s with relative humidity levels of 10-30%. Note: Fire Danger continues to be Very High across all of Northern Minnesota Today with High and Very High Fire Danger also affecting all of Northwest Wisconsin. Surface map late This Afternoon featured low pressure of 1002 mb centered in Western Ontario Province with a cold front attached to this low extending from Central Manitoba Province east through Central Ontario Province. Low pressure centers of 994-1000 mb covered the Rockies Today.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Split flow continued once again Today across the U.S. Northwest upper level flow covered the Upper Midwest, Northeast U.S., and Central/Eastern Canada while a large upper level low pressure system covered the Central-Southern Rockies and Southwest U.S. with a 100-120 knot jet streak noted per RUC model late Today on the S/SE side of this system across Southern New Mexico and Northern Mexico.

Tonight:

Mainly clear skies will continue across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with high pressure to our east while low pressure and a cold front remain to our north. Lows Tonight will be mainly in the 30s, but some 20s are possible in the typical cold spots. Winds Tonight will be out of the south or east under 15 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

Partly cloudy to sunny skies are expected in our area on Friday with highs in the 60s and 70s, but it will be cooler especially along the North Shore of Lake Superior. By Friday Night, look for partly-mostly cloudy skies with the potential for a few showers in Southern areas later in the night as strong low pressure around 991 mb heads slowly east toward the Western High Plains. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s and 40s. Winds during this period will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Strong low pressure around 990 mb will be tracking E/NE across the Central Plains to south of Chicago Illinois this weekend while high pressure stregthens across Hudson Bay Canada. The pressure gradient will tighten between the low to our S/SE and high to our north which will lead to some gusty easterly winds around Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin this weekend. The models still are not in very good agreement Today as to whether or not we see some rain Saturday through Sunday as that storm tracks across the Plains. Right now it appears that Southern areas, or from Brainerd to Hinckley to Hayward and Park Falls would have the greater chance for some weekend rain, while Northern areas remain generally dry. This could change though. High temperatures for Saturday and Sunday will be in the 50s and 60s, but 40s are expected near Lake Superior and also in areas that see more extensive cloud-cover/rainfall. Lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.

Looking ahead to the period from late next week through next weekend (April 29th-May 1st) could feature a rather potent storm system tracking east out of the Western U.S. The exact details and timing of this system will be uncertain for several more days, but it should be noted that the GFS and EUROPEAN models continue to show this storm on Today's model run, although the tracks are different between the two models. EUROPEAN is more NW/N while the GFS is farther S/E. This storm could bring wind and rainy conditions to our area, perhaps even some thunderstorm activity and maybe even a little wet snow should the GFS verify with it's colder outcome, although the snow part seems like a very low probability at this point.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 31 to 36. Wind east to southeast around 12 mph.

.Friday... Mostly sunny. High 63 to 68 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 38 to 43. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. High 51 to 56 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.

.Sunday... Considerable cloudiness. High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Sunday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.

.Monday... Partly sunny. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal High Temperature Today 53 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 32 degrees

Tim

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

4/21/10: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:22 PM CDT, Wednesday, April 21st, 2010

...Fire Danger remains Very High across all of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today per DNR website.

Note: Today marks the 6th day in a row with-out sunspots which is the longest streak so far in 2010. Source: Spaceweather.com

Weather History:

On this date in 1990, a record high temperature of 76 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

On this date in 1991, a record low temperature of 18 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Note: Big temperature changes of around 30-40+ degrees occurred across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin between Tuesday's high temperature and the low temperature This Morning. Here are some of the more notable temperature changes that occurred. 1st number represents the high temperature on Tuesday. 2nd number represents the low temperature from This Morning. 3rd number represents the temperature change between the high and low.

Duluth MN: 72/32=40 degree temperature drop

Brainerd MN: 75/35=40 degree temperature drop

Hibbing MN: 73/26=47 degree temperature drop

Silver Bay MN: 73/30=43 degree temperature drop

Eveleth MN: 72/28=44 degree temperature drop

Embarrass MN: 72/25=47 degree temperature drop

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Tuesday's cold front was located over Iowa This Afternoon while high pressure of 1018 mb was centered across the Northwestern part of Lake Superior. A chilly airmass was in place Today, especially near Lake Superior where Afternoon temperatures have struggled to get out of the mid/upper 30s, the rest of our area saw highs in the upper 40s and 50s Today. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +1 to -3 degrees C from southwest to northeast across our area. Winds Today were out of the north or east at 5-15 mph with stronger winds up to 20-25 mph occurring near Lake Superior. Low clouds which formed late last night and lingered through This Morning near Lake Superior burned off over all but areas of Ashland/Iron Counties Wisconsin This Afternoon, the rest of our area saw mainly sunny skies Today.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Northwest flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest Today/Northeast U.S., along with Central-Eastern parts of Canada per water vapor satellite imagery. A large upper level low (546 meters) covered Central Nevada and Eastern parts of California with widespread 90-150 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls occurring Today across the Southern Rockies/Southwest U.S. per RUC model analysis.

Tonight through Thursday Night:

High pressure will be in control of our weather during this period as it remains centered to our north/east. Mostly clear skies are forecast Tonight with partly cloudy conditions for Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night. Lows Tonight will fall into the 20s and 30s with some teens possible in the typical cold spots. Areas of frost are likely by dawn. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s and 60s but it will be cooler near Lake Superior. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees. North or east winds will continue Tonight under 20 mph with south or east winds Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night generally under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Dry weather will continue Friday and Friday Night across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with highs Friday and Saturday in the 50s and 60s, but it will be cooler near Lake Superior. Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the 30s and 40s. Strong upper level/surface low pressure which was moving toward the Central Rockies Today will move out onto the Central Plains by Friday before shifting east/northeast this weekend. A few of the models Today show some rain shifting north affecting portions of our area this weekend, while others remain dry. With high pressure remaining to our N/NE this weekend it would appear that the majority of the rain associated with this strong Spring storm will pass to our south...But Southern parts of our area, generally from Brainerd, Hayward, and Park Falls could see some light rain at times from Saturday into Sunday.

By late next week (April 29th-May 1st) the GFS and EUROPEAN models crank out a fairly vigorous storm system which tracks from the Rockies into the Plains. How far north the precipitation gets from this potential storm will depend on how far north the low pressure system tracks. The 12z GFS model from Today seems way overdone on the strength of this system, in fact if the GFS were to verify, then we could be looking at a rain turning to snow scenario for parts of our area sometime next Friday or Saturday!

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Areas of frost late. Low 25 to 30. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph, decreasing to 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Areas of frost early. Mostly sunny. High 53 to 58 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 35 to 40. Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 58 to 63 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 38 to 43.

.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. High 51 to 56 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.

.Sunday... Considerable cloudiness. High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal High Temperature Today 52 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 31 degrees

Tim

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

4/20/10: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:54 PM CDT, Tuesday, April 20th, 2010

Note: Today's high temperature of 72 degrees at the Duluth Airport came 4 degrees shy of tying the record high of 76 degrees.

Weather History:

On this date in 1987, a record high temperature of 76 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Weather tidbits for Duluth, MN:
*Year to date 70 degree days: 3
*Last year up to this date: 1

*Year to date 60 degree days: 10
*Last year up to this date: 1

Note: Fire Danger was rated as Very High once again Today across all of Northern Minnesota with all of Northwest Wisconsin under High or Very High Fire Danger per DNR website.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A powerful lake breeze front moved rapidly west/south off Lake Superior This Afternoon which was accompanied by a sudden wind shift to the E/NE and falling temperatures from 70-75 degrees to 40-45 degrees in a matter of minutes! A cloud of dust reducing visibilities to a few miles also occurred for a brief time at the onset of the wind shift/temperature drop! Strong convergence was occurring with this boundary Today, but the lack of moisture precluded the development of any precipitation.

Mostly sunny-partly cloudy skies were found across our area Today with high temperatures in the middle 60s to lower 70s with 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranging from +4 to +10 degrees C from northeast to southwest across our area. Note: Much colder air associated with zero to -12 degree C H85 temperatures and surface temps in the 30s were lurking north-northeast of our local area This Afternoon. Winds Today were out of the west, north, or east generally under 15 mph, but stronger winds have developed late Today especially near Lake Superior.

Surface map late This Afternoon featured an area of high pressure (1026 mb) centered in Northern Ontario Province with a cold front surging west/south off Lake Superior.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Northwest flow aloft prevailed across the Upper Midwest Today per RUC model analysis with an upper level trough affecting areas west of the Rockies Today while an upper level low (546 meters) tracks east across Northern California. 90-120 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls were occurring Today near this system across parts of California and Nevada per RUC model analysis.

Tonight through Wednesday Night:

Cold front will continue to drop west/south through the rest of our area early Tonight, otherwise high pressure will be in control of our weather as it sets-up to our north during this period. Lows Tonight and Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s but some 20s are likely in the typical cold spots. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 40s and 50s with maybe a few 60s in far Western-Southern areas. North or east winds at 5-15 mph will occur Tonight through Tomorrow Night, but stronger winds of 15-35 mph will continue mainly This Evening near Lake Superior. Skies during this period will be clear-partly cloudy.

Extended Forecast:

High pressure heads off to our east for Thursday and Friday with dry conditions prevailing around our area. Highs for Thursday and Friday will be in the 50s and 60s but it will be cooler near Lake Superior. Lows Thursday Night and Friday Night will be in the 30s and 40s. The upper level trough/low pressure system currently moving into the Western U.S. will track out onto the Southern/Central Plains by late this week before tracking east/northeast toward the Southern Great Lakes or Ohio Valley region by late this weekend/early next week. It still appears that the bulk of the rain associated with this storm will pass to our south due to strong high pressure remaining in place across Central Canada.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Windy at times. Partly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 35 mph This Evening.

.Wednesday... Much cooler compared to Today. Mostly sunny. High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 27 to 32. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 38 to 43.

.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. High 51 to 56 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 52 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 31 degrees

Tim

Monday, April 19, 2010

4/19/10: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:09 PM CDT, Monday, April 19th, 2010

...Fire update and the latest on the dry conditions...

As of This Morning, Minnesota DNR reported 9 new fires in Northeastern Minnesota with fires reported in Aitkin MN, Backus MN, Blackduck MN, Deer River MN, Hibbing MN, Tower MN, Cloquet MN, Littlefork MN, and Sandstone MN. On April 18th alone, there were 39 fires burning 400+ acres across Minnesota, the most significant ones occurring across the Northern part of the state. A fire near Hackensack Minnesota (Cass County) has been too intense for ground forces to handle thus Aircraft has been necessary in handling this fire.

*There have been 825 fires so far in 2010 in Minnesota which have burned 16, 260 acres.

*Fire Danger continues to be Very High across all of Northern Minnesota Today while all of Northwestern Wisconsin was under High or Very High Fire Danger Today per DNR.

*April 2010 precipitation total at Duluth, MN (thru the 19th) 0.41"
Normal: 1.22"
Departure: 0.81" Below Normal

March 1st, 2010 thru April 19th, 2010 precipitation total at Duluth, MN: 1.35"
Normal: 2.91"
Departure: 1.56" Below Normal

January 1st, 2010 thru April 19th, 2010 precipitation total at Duluth, MN: 2.86"
Normal: 4.86"
Departure: 2.00" Below Normal

Weather tidbits:

*52/53 days since February 26th, 2010 ending on Today's date 4/19/10 has featured an Average or Above Average High Temperature at Duluth, MN.

*Warmest March globally since 1880 per NOAA

*Activity on the sun has decreased during the past few days, in fact Today marks the 4th day in a row with no sunspots. So far in 2010 there's only been 11 days (9%) with no activity on the sun. Source: Spaceweather.com

-There's been some correlation between warm temperatures/sunspot activity while no activity on the sun may lead to cooler temperatures down the road. Note: There's been rather frequent sunspot activity so far in 2010 prior to these past 4 days.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Bone dry conditions persist across the region Today with mostly sunny-sunny skies with Afternoon dewpoints ranging from the mid 20s to low 30s in Southern portions of our area to the teens and 20s from the Iron Range on north. Relative humidity values late Today generally ranged from 10-25% across our area with PWS of 0.20"-0.40". Highs Today were in the 60s and lower 70s which is running 10-20 degrees above average for this time of year. 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +6 to +8 degrees C across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Winds Today were rather light, generally from the south, north, or east under 15 mph which is good news for fire fightning efforts. Surface map late Today featured high pressure of 1026 mb covering the Western half of Lake Superior with another high of 1024 mb across Northern Manitoba Province. A cold front was draped generally west to east across Southern Ontario Province.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Weak northwest flow aloft was in place over the Upper Midwest Today with a few disturbances dropping southeast through the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery. Meanwhile an upper level trough covered the Northeast U.S. as well as the Eastern half of Canada while another upper level trough moves slowly toward the U.S. West Coast Today.

Tonight through Tuesday Night:

Quiet weather will continue across our area during this period with high pressure centers off to our east and north while the cold front located in Southern Ontario Province sinks south and passes through all of our area from late Tonight through Tomorrow Afternoon. Lows Tonight and Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees, but some 20s are also possible in the typical cold spots. Highs Tomorrow will reach the 60s and 70s with cooler temperatures at times near Lake Superior. Winds will be variable under 15 mph Tonight with west or north/northeast winds Tomorrow at 10-20 mph. North or east winds are expected Tomorrow Night under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Dry weather is forecast to persist across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Wednesday through at least Friday. A persistent trough to our northeast will continue this week while high pressure strengthens later this week near Hudson Bay Canada. An upper level trough will move east through the Western U.S. which will eventually progress into the Plains later this week and this weekend. At this time it appears that any rain associated with this 500 mb trough/storm system from Friday through Sunday will remain south of our area due to the persistent high and upper trough in Central/Eastern Canada. High temperatures on Wednesday will be mainly in the 50s to around 60 degrees across our area with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. Highs for Thursday will be in the 50s and 60s with a few isolated 70 degree readings quite possible. Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Thursday Night in the 30s and 40s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 33 to 38. Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Tuesday... Mostly sunny. High 63 to 68 but cooler at times near Lake Superior. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph with east winds at times closer to Lake Superior.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 51 to 56 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 30 to 35.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 58 to 63 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal High Temperature Today 51 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 30 degrees

Tim

Saturday, April 17, 2010

4/17/10: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:03 PM CDT, Saturday, April 17th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 1987... A record high temperature of 82 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

On this date in 1983... A record low temperature of 8 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Note: All headlines issued by the NWS Duluth, MN...

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure of 1028 mb was located over Southeastern North Dakota at mid-Afternoon with low pressure of 1006 mb centered in Southeast Ontario Province. Mainly sunny skies were found across our local area Today with the only exception to this occurring in extreme Northeast Minnesota near Pigeon River and Grand Portage where some clouds have moved through at times Today. High temperatures Today were mainly in the upper 50s to the low/mid 60s with another day of very low dewpoints (teens and low 20s) with very low PWS generally around 0.20"!, this along with northwest/north winds of 10-20 mph with some higher gusts resulted in the issuance of a ...Red Flag Warning...for portions of Northwestern Wisconsin for Today.

Note: Very high to Extreme Fire Danger covers all of Northwest Wisconsin Today while all of Northern, Northeast, and Eastern Minnesota is under Extreme Fire Danger Today per Wisconsin and Minnesota DNR.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Upper level low (546 meters) covered Eastern Canada Today per RUC model analysis with a northerly flow aloft in place west of this system across Minnesota. An upper level ridge was in place across portions of the Northern Plains Today while an upper level low continued to crawl slowly east through Northern Texas Today. Two strong systems were found across the Pacific Today. One was heading east into the Northeast Pacific while the other was tracking E/NE across the South Pacific. These storms will begin to affect the Western U.S. by early next week.

Tonight through Sunday Night:

*Red Flag Warning* is in effect until 7 PM CDT This Evening for the following Counties in our local area:

Douglas WI...Bayfield WI...Burnett WI...Washburn WI...And Sawyer WI...

High pressure will be in control of our weather through Tomorrow Night as it drifts east across Minnesota. Clear-partly cloudy skies are expected from Tonight through Tomorrow Night with lows both nights in the 20s and 30s with highs Tomorrow in the 50s and 60s but it will be cooler near Lake Superior. North, east, or south winds are forecast during this period under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

High pressure moves off to our east by Monday while a weak cold front drops south out of Central Canada and through our local area around Tuesday or Wednesday. Still looks dry across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin through most of next week. High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior for Monday and Tuesday. Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees.

A strong storm system is forecast to enter the Central Plains late next week and is expected to track east toward the Ohio Valley or Eastern Great Lakes region next weekend. At this time it appears that the rain associated with this storm will remain south of our local area. We could, however, see some gusty easterly winds develop late next week and next weekend due to a tigthening pressure gradient between the low passing to our S/SE while strong high pressure sets-up in Ontario or Hudson Bay Canada.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Clear. Low 31 to 36. Wind north at 5 to 15 mph becoming east.

.Sunday... Mostly sunny. High 58 to 63 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 30 to 35. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.

.Wednesday... Partly sunny. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal High Temperature Today 50 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 30 degrees

Tim

Friday, April 16, 2010

4/16/10: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:29 PM CDT, Friday, April 16th, 2010

...All headlines issued by the National Weather Service, Duluth, MN...

...RECORD WARM SPRING SO FAR IN DULUTH, MN...

Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

*The average Spring temperature thru the 15th of April is 40.1 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota. This ties with 1878 as being the warmest Spring in history.

*Warmest 1st half of April in history at Duluth, Minnesota with an average temperature thru the 15th of 46.3 degrees which is running 10.8 degrees Above Normal.

*International Falls, MN is having it's warmest Spring in history so far with an average temperature of 37.4 degrees.

*Brainerd, MN is also having it's warmest Spring in history so far with an average temperature of 39.7 degrees.

May 2010 outlook Issued by the Climate Prediction Center on Thursday, April 15th, 2010.

For Duluth:

Equal Chances for Above Normal, Below Normal, or Near Normal Temperatures.

33% chance for Below Normal Precipitation.

June 2010 thru August 2010 outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center on Thursday, April 15th, 2010.

For Duluth:

33% chance for Below Normal Temperatures.

Equal Chances for Above Normal, Below Normal, or Near Normal Precipitation.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure of 1032 mb was centered in Northern North Dakota late Today with low pressure of 1000 mb centered along the Ontario/Quebec Province border. It was another windy day across our area with north or northwest winds at 10-25 mph with a few higher gusts. High temperatures were generally in mid 50s to around 60 degrees with Afternoon dewpoints in the single digits and teens which combined with the gusty winds has resulted in high fire danger across Northern/Eastern Minnesota where *Red Flag Warnings* were issued for This Afternoon.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

(534 meter) upper level low was located in Eastern Ontario Province This Afternoon per RUC model analysis with an upper level trough covering Central Canada, the Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes region. N/NW flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest Today. An upper level low was nearly stationary across Northern Texas Today with plenty of rain affecting the states of Oklahoma as well as Northern/Westcentral Texas.

Tonight:

*Red Flag Warning* continues until 8 PM CDT for the following Counties in our local area... Koochiching MN...Itasca MN...Cass MN...Crow Wing MN...Aitkin MN...Pine MN...Carlton MN...St. Louis MN...Lake MN...And Cook MN.

High pressure will remain off to our west Tonight with low pressure in Eastern Canada. A very dry airmass will remain in place throughout our area Tonight, note: Afternoon PWS generally under 0.20" in Northern Minnesota/Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Tonight will be in the 20s and 30s with north or northwest winds at 10-25 mph with a few higher gusts, decreasing to under 20 mph Overnight. Weak cold advection will persist on the backside of the low to our east with H85 temperatures remaining in the +1 to -3 degree C range late through the night.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

*Fire Weather Watch* is in effect from Saturday Morning through Saturday Evening for the following Counties in our local area... Douglas WI...Bayfield WI...Burnett WI...Washburn WI...And Sawyer WI...

High pressure will cover the Upper Midwest during this period. Mostly sunny-partly cloudy skies are expected on Saturday with highs in the 50s and 60s along with north or northwest winds at 10-20 mph with a few higher gusts mainly in Northwestern Wisconsin. Fair skies will occur Saturday Night as lows drop into the 20s and 30s once again. Winds Tomorrow Night will be out of the north or west under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Dry weather looks to continue from Sunday into early next week across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Highs on Sunday will be in the 50s and 60s with similar temperatures on tap for Monday. It will turn cooler though near Lake Superior both days as a lake breeze develops. Lows Sunday Night and Monday Night will be mainly in the 30s.

Most of next week looks rain-free in our area, but there is a system worth watching as it heads east across the Western U.S. and into the Southern-Central Plains toward the latter part of next week or next weekend, this storm could spread some rain close to our area sometime in the Friday-Sunday time frame, or from April 23rd-25th.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*Red Flag Warning* in effect until 8 PM CDT This Evening.

.Tonight... Clear. Breezy This Evening. Low 30 to 35. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph with a few higher gusts, wind decreasing to 5 to 15 mph late.

.Saturday... Mostly sunny. High 60 to 65. Wind northwest to north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 30 to 35. Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Mostly sunny. High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65.

Normal High Tempeature Today 49 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 29 degrees

Tim

Thursday, April 15, 2010

4/15/10: Cold front CU, Duluth, Minnesota











A cold front passed thru the Twin Ports around 1PM Today which caused a wind shift to occur from the east to southwest, once that happened our temperatures increased from around 50 degrees to the low/mid 70s while strong SW winds gusted to 40 mph during the Afternoon hours. I thought a few storms would pop up east of the Twin Ports with this cold front Today, but no such luck, just some cumulus clouds that really didn't show any sign of development due to a lack of instability, minimal amounts of moisture was present, however, with dewpoints around 50-53 degrees, while shear was rather robust which combined with a lack of instability probably kept these clouds from growing further.
Tim