Wednesday, March 31, 2010

3/31/10: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 9:26 PM CDT, Wednesday, March 31st, 2010

Weather History:

On this date last year, the high temperature at Duluth, Minnesota was 31 degrees and we had 6.2" of snow!

...RECORD MARCH WARMTH...

*High temperature of 71 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota Today tied the record high temperature for the date which was last set in 1986.

Weather tidbits:

*March 2010 featured 11 days with a high temperature of at least 50 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota. 2 days with a high temperature of at least 60 degrees and 1 day (Today) with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees!

*Last year, we had to wait until April 17th to get our first 70 degree day at Duluth, Minnesota.

*Today's high temperature of 71 degrees was the first time above 70 since September 24th, 2009.

***UPDATED 30 DAY OUTLOOK*** Issued by the Climate Prediction Center on March 31st, 2010.

April 2010 Outlook

For Duluth: 33-40% chance for Above Normal Temperatures with a 33% chance for Above Normal Precipitation.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A cold front passed east through Northern/Eastern Minnesota Today and was tracking through Northwest Wisconsin This Evening. Very Warm air was in place across our entire area Today with high temperatures in the middle 60s to lower 70s which is around 20-30 degrees above the normal high for the last day of March! 850 mb temperatures as of 9 PM ranged from +7 to +12 degrees C from northwest to southeast across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Partly to mostly cloudy skies covered our local area Today with another day filled with a cirrus deck thanks to strong upper level winds nearby. Surface map as of mid-Evening featured a cold front extending from Central Lake Superior to Central Wisconsin, this front then becomes stationary from Southeastern Minnesota to Central Iowa, then this boundary turns into a warm front from Central Iowa through Eastern Kansas to far Southwestern Kansas. A few areas of low pressure around 998 mb were found across the Central Rockies This Evening.

This Evening's 500 mb analysis:

Pattern change is almost complete. Southwest flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest This Evening with a 500 mb ridge in place across the Southern U.S. while upper level troughs covered the Western U.S. and the Northeast U.S. Powerful upper level winds from 120-140 knots per RUC model analysis extended from the Southwest U.S. through the Northern Plains into Central Canada.

Overnight:

Clear-partly cloudy skies will be found across our area the rest of Tonight while the cold front off to our south/east becomes stationary in that area for the rest of Tonight. Lows Tonight will be in the 30s and 40s with north, west or east winds under 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

A strengthening warm front will be developing on Thursday over Southern Minnesota, this boundary will then shift north for Thursday Night as strong low pressure heads northeast out of the Western High Plains. Southerly low level jet of 30-50 knots will be developing across the Upper Midwest during this period which will cause strong warm advection to develop along with some increase in moisture. 850 mb temperatures which will range from +2/+8 degrees C from north to south in our local area on Thursday are forecast to rise to between +6/+14 degrees C by Thursday night (coolest north) and (warmest south). Dewpoints should climb into the 40s across Northwest Wisconsin/Eastcentral Minnesota by Thursday Evening/Overnight while 850 td's climb to around +8 degrees C by Thursday Night.

An increase in elevated instability is also forecast across most of our area by Thursday Night with MUCAPES of 500/1000 j/kg expected along with lifted indices from zero/-2 degrees C. There is also a nice push of higher elevated Theta e advection that surges north with the warm front for Thursday Night.

It's certainly possible that we could see some showers or thunderstorms break out in Western/Northern parts of our area Thursday Night as the warm front approaches along with the other parameters that are forecast to be in place at that time.

High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 40s and 50s with some 60s in Southern areas. Lows Thursday Night will hold in the 40s and 50s. Expect east/southeast winds of 10-20 mph during this period with higher gusts possible especially near Lake Superior.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will be lifting northeast across the Upper Midwest for Friday and Saturday while a cold front heads east across our area from Friday Afternoon into Saturday. It does appear that will see some rain at times for Friday and Saturday across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with some locally heavy rainfall possible, although it's still not entirely clear on where the heavier rains will set up for Friday and Saturday. High temperatures will be in the 60s in Northwest Wisconsin/Eastern Minnesota with 40s and 50s in Northern Minnesota on Friday with highs mainly in the 40s and 50s expected for Saturday. Low temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s for both Friday and Saturday Nights.

Note: *Winter Storm Watches* have been issued for portions of the Dakotas for late Thursday and Friday with the potential of at least 4" of snow in those areas.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 40 to 45. Wind west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph becoming east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph toward dawn.

.Thursday... Windy and much cooler compared to Today. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 52 to 57 but much cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph.

.Thursday Night... Breezy. Mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 40 to 45. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts possible. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday... Considerable cloudiness. Showers possible. High 58 to 63 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 40%.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. Low 37 to 42. Chance of rain 50%.

.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. High 45 to 50. Chance of rain 50%.

.Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. Low 30 to 35. Chance of rain 30%.

.Easter Sunday... Partly sunny. High 48 to 53.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 41 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 23 degrees

Tim

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

3/30/10: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 8:20 PM CDT, Tuesday, March 30th, 2010

Weather tibits:

*Average monthly temperature at Duluth, MN thru the 29th: 35.9 degrees which is 11.0 degrees Above Normal. All time warmest March on record: 39.1 degrees set in 1878.

*Today's high temperature of at least 50 degrees makes it the 10th day during the month of March 2010 with a maximum temperature greater than 50 degrees at Duluth, MN. This month has also had 2 days with a high temperature of at least 60 degrees at Duluth, MN. March 2009 had just 3 days with a high temperature of at least 50 degrees with zero days of 60 degree high temperatures.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Unseasonably warm day Today for most of our area as high temperatures made it into the 60s and lower 70s! The exception to this was along the North Shore of Lake Superior down through the Twin Ports (below the hill) where temperatures climbed into the 50s and 60s for a time before falling back into the 40s during the mid/late Afternoon hours thanks to a wind shift from the south to the east/northeast. Winds away from Lake Superior were out of the south at 10-20 mph Today with gusts from 20-30 mph in some locations. We saw quite a bit of high level clouds pass through our area Today due to a powerful jet stream >130 knots which extended from California east-northeast to North Dakota. Moisture has increased somewhat over our area Today with dewpoints generally in the 30s to around 40 degrees with PWS of around 1/2". Surface map This Evening featured a warm front across Northern Minnesota into Northeast Wisconsin. Low pressure of 988 mb was centered in Western South Dakota with a cold front stretching from the Western Dakotas through the Central Rockies.

This Evening's 500 mb analysis:

Pattern change continued to occur Today with the Upper Midwest now in a southwest flow aloft. Plenty of mid/high level moisture continues to stream east-northeast out of the Western U.S. through the Central/Northern Plains and Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery. An upper level low (546 meters) was centered close to New Jersey This Evening per RUC model analysis with an upper level trough covering the Northeast U.S./Quebec Province.

Tonight:

Strong low pressure which was over Western South Dakota early This Evening will head northeast toward Eastern North Dakota by dawn. Cold front attached to this low will move east into Western Minnesota Overnight while the warm front analyzed over Northern Minnesota This Evening lifts north during the night. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found across our area Tonight with a few light rain showers possible mainly in Northwest parts of our area, or generally north of a line from Walker to Ely Minnesota. Southwest H85 jet is forecast to increase to 30-50 knots across Northwest Wisconsin/Eastern Minnesota Tonight with a separate low level jet (SW >35 knots) developing in Western parts of our area Overnight. 850 mb temperatures ranging from +11/+15 degrees C in our area This Evening will change little through the night as some warm advection lingers ahead of the low/cold front off to our west. Result from all this will be for unusually warm Overnight lows which will range from the 40s to lower 50s across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with the exception to this from Superior and Downtown Duluth up along the North Shore of Lake Superior where lows will range from the mid 30s to low 40s. Winds Tonight will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Low pressure will track west/north of our area during this period while a cold front attached to this low heads east and through Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Moisture will be limited near this boundary with dewpoints generally in the upper 30s and 40s with PWS of .60"-.80". This front should come through dry, although a few showers can't be ruled out Tomorrow Morning in far Northern Minnesota. Highs on Wednesday with partly-mostly sunny skies will reach the 60s and 70s while lows Wednesday Night under partly-mostly cloudy skies fall into the 40s and lower 50s, but some 30s are possible in Northern Minnesota. Winds Tomorrow will be out of the south or west at 10-25 mph with north, east, or west winds Tomorrow Night under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

The cold front which will move through our area on Wednesday will stall out and turn into a warm front on Thursday. This boundary is then forecast to lift north out of the Southern Minnesota/Central Wisconsin area by Thursday Afternoon into Friday Morning as another strong area of low pressure heads northeast out of the Western High Plains.

A tight thermal gradient will become established across the Upper Midwest for Thursday and Friday with 850 mb temperatures of around zero degrees C across Northwest Minnesota to as high as +14 degrees C in Southern Minnesota! Dewpoints climbing into the 40s/50s will be common along and south of the warm front with 850 td's rising to around +8 degrees C by Thursday Evening from Southern Minnesota to Eastcentral Minnesota. Forecast models also indicate a rise in ELEVATED CAPES by Thursday Night in Eastcentral Minnesota/Northwest Wisconsin with the 12z NAM-WRF model from This Morning showing MUCAPES of 500-1250 j/kg developing by Thursday Night near the warm front along with a SW LLJ of 30-45 knots! Will have to keep a close eye on this to see if there will be enough moisture in place to erupt some thunderstorms in Eastern Minnesota Thursday Night as the warm front lifts north.

The positives in place to cause some Thursday Night thunder would be the strong 850 mb jet along with a strengthening warm front lifting north from Southern Minnesota. The negatives would be the amount of moisture that may or may not be in place.

Still plenty of model differences showing up Today for the Friday-Sunday time period. GFS model has more times than not been the progressive model as of late which would result in mainly dry conditions in our area for Saturday and Sunday with rain chances confined to Friday/Friday Night. Most of the other models Today have a slower solution which would increase our chance for seeing some significant rain at somepoint between Friday and Sunday as low pressure lifts north from the Plains.

High temperatures for Thursday and Friday will be in the 50s and 60s, but 40s will be found along the North Shore of Lake Superior and also in far Northern Minnesota. Lows Thursday Night and Friday Night will be in the 40s and lower 50s, but it will be somewhat cooler near Lake Superior.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Unusually mild for this time of year away from Lake Superior. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 45 to 50, but 35 to 40 close to Lake Superior. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph with variable winds close to Lake Superior.

.Wednesday... Unseasonably warm! Partly to mostly sunny. Breezy. High 68 to 73 but it may be cooler closer to Lake Superior. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 30 mph. Variable winds close to Lake Superior shifting to the southwest at 15 to 30 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. High 55 to 60 but much cooler near Lake Superior.

.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 40 to 45. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 37 to 42.

.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. High 45 to 50. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 41 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 23 degrees

Tim

Monday, March 29, 2010

3/29/10: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:07 PM CDT, Monday, March 29th, 2010

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Southerly winds have increased in our area Today as high pressure of around 1018 mb pushes off to our east. Those south winds have been quite gusty Today with wind speeds of 15-30 mph! Warm advection has been occurring throughout the day across our area with H85 temperatures as of 2 PM pushing into the +1/+5 degree C range in Northwest Wisconsin and Northern Minnesota. High temperatures were in the 50s and lower 60s Today, but upper 30s and 40s were common from Downtown Duluth up along the North Shore of Lake Superior in Northeast Minnesota thanks to an easterly wind. Skies for the most part have been mostly sunny Today, although we have seen some occasional high level clouds pass through from time to time.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

West-northwest flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery. A powerful jet stream of 130-160 knots covered the Pacific Northwest back through the Central Pacific Ocean Today per RUC model analysis. An upper level trough covered Western Canada/Northwest U.S., and the Northeast Pacific with 12 hour 500 mb height falls of 90-150 meters occurring in those areas. 500 mb ridge was in place from the Great Lakes through the Central/Southern Plains while an upper level trough was in place over the Eastern U.S.

Tonight:

Southwest low level jet of 30-40 knots will be found across the Upper Midwest Tonight which will result in more warm advection during the night. Clear-partly cloudy skies will cover Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with lows in the 30s and lower 40s. Winds will be out of the south or east at 5-15 mph, but gustier winds of 15-30 mph will persist away from Lake Superior This Evening.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Southwest low level jet around 30-45 knots will continue at times during this period across the Upper Midwest. H85 temperatures are expected to range from +4/+10 degrees C across our area Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night while dewpoints come up a bit from the 20s and lower 30s observed Today to the 30s and 40s on Tuesday while PWS climb toward 1/2" during this period. Partly-mostly sunny skies are expected Tomorrow with highs mainly in the 60s, although it will be much cooler along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Lows Tomorrow Night will be mainly in the 40s. Expect south or southeast winds at 10-25 mph across our area.

Extended Forecast:

500 mb trough will continue to develop across the Western U.S. through the week with a southwest flow aloft developing in the Upper Midwest while an upper level ridge sets up across the Southeast half of the U.S. from mid-week through this weekend. A cold front will settle south/east into the Upper Midwest from Wednesday through Friday with this boundary likely stalling out from Northwest Wisconsin down to Southern Minnesota from Thursday through Saturday before it gets a shove to the east later this weekend. A couple low pressure waves look to ride northeast along this front from mid to late week, with another low heading north from the Plains this weekend.

Wednesday into Thursday look mainly dry across Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota while there will be a risk for some showers at times across Northern Minnesota. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 60s with a few 70s possible in Southern areas. Thursday's highs will be in the 40s and 50s in Northern Minnesota to the 60s in Northwest Wisconsin. High temps will be around 40 degrees near Lake Superior on Thursday, perhaps on Wednesday too. Low temperatures will be mainly in the 40s both Wednesday and Thursday Nights.

The potential does exist for more significant rains around parts of our area from late this week into the weekend, but this will depend on the track of a system coming out of the Plains and where the frontal boundary sets up during that aforementioned time period, although it should be noted that the models are trending wetter for most of our area late this week/this weekend.

Thunderstorm chances appear pretty low at this time, however, the 12z NAM/WRF model from Today does show elevated CAPES around 500 j/kg developing on Thursday in parts of our area which would be supportive of some thunderstorm development, should enough lift and moisture occur near the cold front that will settle southeast into our area by mid-week. Any risk for thunder from Friday into Saturday should shift into Northwest Wisconsin or areas farther south the way it looks now.

Trends with the models right now indicate another storm system targeting the Upper Midwest around the middle of next week with rain possibly returning to parts of our local area at that time.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly cloudy. Low 35 to 40. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65 but it may be cooler near Lake Superior. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Partly sunny. High 62 to 67 but it may be cooler near Lake Superior.

.Wednesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45.

.Thursday... Mostly cloudy. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 40 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 22 degrees

Tim

Sunday, March 28, 2010

3/28/10: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:38 PM CDT, Sunday, March 28th, 2010

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Partly to mostly sunny skies were found across our area Today with high temperatures topping out mainly in the 40s, although a few Western locales were near 50 degrees late Today while some mid/upper 30s were found along the North Shore of Lake Superior in Northeast Minnesota. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -4 to -7 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the north, west, or east under 20 mph. Surface map as of 3 PM featured high pressure around 1018 mb centered to our north and west. Low pressure of 1004 mb was centered in Eastern Indiana.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Northwest flow aloft was in place across the Upper Midwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery. An upper level trough was moving east out of the Upper Midwest and covered the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region This Afternoon per RUC model analysis. A strong jet >130 knots was in place Today across the Central Pacific Ocean per RUC model analysis and this jet will help in changing the overall upper level pattern this week.

Tonight:

High pressure near our area will result in clear-partly cloudy skies with low temperatures in the 20s and lower 30s, but a few teens can't be ruled out in the traditional cold spots. Winds Tonight will be out of the north, east, or south under 15 mph.

Monday and Monday Night:

Warm advection will get underway across our area during this period as high pressure heads off to our east allowing winds to turn southerly. Partly to mostly sunny skies are forecast on Monday with partly-mostly cloudy skies for Monday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees, but cooler temperatures will be found along the North Shore of Lake Superior in Northeast Minnesota, possibly extending down to the Twin Ports. Winds during this period will be out of the south or southeast at 10-25 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Model agreement has become poorer compared to recent days... Tuesday and Tuesday Night still look mild as warm advection persists with an area of +4/+8 degree C H85 temperatures moving overhead. High temperatures on Tuesday will be mainly in the 60s with cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior in Northeast Minnesota. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.

What happens from Wednesday through next weekend is handled differently between the models Today. The overall 500 mb pattern remains unchanged with Today's models as a trough takes shape out in the Western U.S. while an upper level ridge develops across the Southeast half of the U.S.

A frontal boundary/baroclinic zone is forecast to settle south/southeast into the Upper Midwest toward mid to late next week into next weekend, but where this front sets up is handled differently between the models, this is important since if the front stalls close enough to our area then we could see some periods of rain which may be locally heavy at times by late next week into next weekend, thunderstorm activity would also be possible. If it sets up far enough to our south which is what the GFS model has been showing for two days now, then rain chances would be less for our local area during the latter part of next week/next weekend time period.

Temperature forecasting will also be a challenge from Wednesday onward and will depend on where this boundary sets up and whether or not we have southerly surface winds or an east wind.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Clear to partly cloudy. Low 27 to 32. Wind north to northeast under 12 mph, becoming south.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 50 to 55 but it may be cooler near Lake Superior. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 35 to 40. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 58 to 63 but it may be cooler near Lake Superior.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 40 to 45.

.Wednesday... Partly sunny. High 60 to 65 but it may be cooler near Lake Superior.

.Wednesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45.

.Thursday... Mostly cloudy. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal High Temperature Today 39 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 21 degrees

Tim

Saturday, March 27, 2010

3/27/10: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:29 PM CDT, Saturday, March 27th, 2010

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure along with a cold front have been shifting slowly south/east through Minnesota Today. This system produced areas of light rain around our area from late last night through This Morning with most of the light rain confined to Northern areas of Minnesota This Afternoon. There was enough cold air in place early This Morning for some snow to mix in with the rain in Northeastern Minnesota, but no snow accumulations were reported. Mostly cloudy-partly sunny skies covered our area Today with high temperatures generally in the 40s with some mid/upper 30s along the North Shore of Lake Superior in Northeast Minnesota. 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from -1 to +1 degree C. Winds Today were out of the southwest or north under 20 mph. Surface map This Afternoon featured low pressure of 1011 mb centered in Southern Ontario Province. A cold front attached to this low stretched from Southern Ontario Province into Western Minnesota.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Upper level trough covered the Plains with a (546 meter) 500 mb low heading east out of Central Kansas. Northwest/west 500 mb flow covered the Northern Plains and Canada Today per RUC model analysis with upper level ridging building across the Rockies and the Western High Plains/Northern Plains.

Tonight:

A cold front will continue to settle south/east through our area This Evening. This boundary will produce some more areas of light rain across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Evening with rain chances coming to an end toward Midnight. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will cover our area Tonight with some patchy fog possible Overnight. Lows Tonight will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees, but some teens are possible in Northern Minnesota. Winds Tonight will be out of the southwest or north under 20 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

High pressure will build into the Upper Midwest during this period. Expect partly-mostly sunny skies in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Sunday with mostly clear skies for Sunday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 40s to lower 50s with some 30s possible in far Northern Minnesota. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 20s to lower 30s. North or west winds will become southerly by Sunday Night, wind speeds will remain under 20 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

High pressure exits to our east by next Monday with south/southwest winds developing over the Upper Midwest for early next week. High temperatures should push into the 50s and 60s across our local area for next Monday and Tuesday, with a few 70s not out of the question for Tuesday/Wednesday, however, it could be cooler especially along the North Shore of Lake Superior and possibly down to the Twin Ports if those south winds have more of an easterly component to them. The warm weather looks to persist into the middle of next week, maybe even through next weekend, but again temperatures could be much cooler near Lake Superior depending on how the surface winds set-up, the models have been going back and forth a bit on whether or not will have a S/SW wind or an easterly wind.

The basic upper level pattern for next week will feature a developing trough across the Western U.S. with ridging to our south/east. It appears that will see a cold front settle into the Upper Midwest after the middle of next week, and this boundary combined with one or more low pressure systems that may eject out of the trough out west could lead to an increasing threat for rain and perhaps some thunderstorm activity across our area sometime late next week or next weekend. Note: The GFS model Today continues to show dewpoints climbing toward 50, if not a little higher by late next week around our area, this combined with a decent low level jet at times from the middle to end of next week could keep Overnight lows from falling much below 40-45 degrees around parts of our area!

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Considerable cloudiness with some light rain showers possible at times, mainly before 10 PM. Decreasing clouds Overnight with patchy fog possible. Low 26 to 31. Wind south to southwest under 12 mph, becoming north This Evening.

.Sunday... Partly to mostly sunny. High 45 to 50. Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 25 to 30. Wind west around 12 mph.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 52 to 57.

.Monday Night... Mostly clear. Low 37 to 42.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 40 to 45.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 65 to 70.

Normal High Temperature Today 39 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 21 degrees

Tim

Friday, March 26, 2010

3/26/10: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:02 PM CDT, Friday, March 26th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 2007... A record high temperature of 72 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Note: *Thru March 25th, 2010: The average monthly temperature at Duluth, Minnesota was 35.9 degrees which is 11.8 degrees Above Normal! The warmest March ever recorded at Duluth, MN was in 1878 with an average monthly temperature of 39.1 degrees. It's possible that March 2010 will go down as the warmest ever as the remainder of this month looks mild, especially the final three days of the month!

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Warm advection has been occurring across our area Today which caused a mostly cloudy start to the day, but sunshine has been increasing over all but extreme Northeast Minnesota This Afternoon. High temperatures are some 20-25 degrees warmer in most areas compared to 24 hours ago with temperatures at mid-Afternoon generally in the 40s to lower 50s, but lingering upper 20s and 30s were found in the Arrowhead of Minnesota and down along the North Shore of Lake Superior. 850 mb temperatures as of 2 PM ranged from around zero degrees C in Western areas to between -2 and -9 degrees C in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Winds Today were out of the south or east at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts. Surface map This Afternoon featured a warm front across Northern-Eastern South Dakota with low pressure of 1000 mb centered in Southwest North Dakota. A cold front extended from Southwest North Dakota to Eastern Montana. High pressure of 1022-1024 mb covered the Central-Eastern Great Lakes into Eastern Canada.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

W/SW flow aloft was in place across the Upper Midwest This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery. One disturbance was moving east across the Northern Plains This Afternoon while a secondary disturbance along with an upper level trough was digging south across the Central Rockies. The greatest 12 hour 500 mb height falls (90-120 meters) were occurring with the second system across the Central-Southern Rockies This Afternoon per RUC model analysis.

Tonight:

Low pressure will head east from the Western Dakotas Tonight. A southwest low level jet of 30-40 knots will continue to bring increasing warmth and moisture northeast into our area during the night. Afternoon PWS around .30" across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin are forecast to increase to around one half inch by dawn while dewpoints which were in the single digits, teens, and 20s This Afternoon slowly climb into the 20s and 30s Overnight. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies across our area Tonight with the potential for some light rain Overnight mainly affecting Western-Southern areas. Lows Tonight will be mainly in the 30s with winds out of the south, southwest, or east under 20 mph, but some higher gusts will continue This Evening.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

Low pressure along with a cold front will be tracking through our area on Saturday before it begins to exit to our east by Saturday Night. This system does not have much moisture to work with, but there could still be some light rain at times for Saturday into Saturday Evening in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Rainfall amounts should stay under one quarter inch. Mostly cloudy skies are expected on Saturday with highs generally in the 40s to around 50 degrees. Mostly cloudy-partly cloudy skies are forecast Saturday Night with lows in the 20s and 30s. Winds will be out of the south, north, or east during this period under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Looks dry across our area for Sunday and Monday with high pressure in control. 40s are expected for highs on Sunday, but some Northern areas could hold in the 30s. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 20s and 30s. Southwest winds develop and increase from Monday through Wednesday of next week the way it looks now as deep low pressure heads east out of Western Canada. A cold front attached to that low should begin to move into the Upper Midwest sometime on Wednesday. High temperatures on Monday should warm into the 50s and 60s across our local area with lows Monday Night in the 30s to around 40 degrees. More 50s and 60s, perhaps even a few isolated 70 degree readings are then expected for next Tuesday and Wednesday!

It appears that it will remain dry in our area for next Tuesday and Wednesday...Then the period from late next week through next weekend could get wet at times as a trough develops in the Western U.S. and some gulf moisture begins to push north into the Upper Midwest. Low pressure along with a warm front and cold front could also affect our weather at somepoint during the Easter holiday weekend which could bring some showers and possible thunder to our area. Temperatures should remain mild late next week into next weekend, although onshore winds may kick in after next Wednesday and if this happens, then it will turn much cooler near Lake Superior.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly cloudy This Evening with skies becoming mostly cloudy late. Light rain possible toward dawn. Low 30 to 35. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. Occasional light rain. High 43 to 48. Wind variable becoming north at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

.Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 33. Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 45 to 50.

.Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 25 to 30.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 52 to 57.

.Monday Night... Mostly clear. Low 38 to 43.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65.

Normal High Temperature Today 38 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 21 degrees

Tim

Thursday, March 25, 2010

3/25/10: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:20 PM CDT, Thursday, March 25th, 2010

Weather tibits:

*The streak has ended! Our 27 consecutive days of maximum temperatures greater than 32 degrees and with an above normal or normal high temperature at Duluth, Minnesota has ended Today, Thursday, March 25th, 2010.

*The last time the high temperature was below freezing and below normal at Duluth, Minnesota was on February 25th, 2010. High temperature on that day was 21 degrees.

*Thru March 25th, 2010: A trace of snow has fallen at Duluth, MN which makes it the least snowiest March on record. The previous record occurred in March of 1992 when 0.7" of snow fell during the entire month!

*Today marks the 9th day in a row with little or no measurable precipitation at Duluth, MN. March 16th, 2010 was the last time we saw greater than 0.01" of precipitation.

Note: Incredible temperature changes occurred between Wednesday's high and This Morning's low across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin thanks to a powerful arctic front that blasted through the area last Evening. Here are some of the more notable temperature changes that occurred. 1st number represents the high temperature, 2nd number is the low temperature, and the final number is how much the temperature dropped.

Duluth MN: 51/11=40 degree temperature drop

International Falls MN: 46/5=41 degree temperature drop

Brainerd MN: 52/14=38 degree temperature drop

Hibbing MN: 50/8=42 degree temperature drop

Sky Harbor MN: 54/16=38 degree temperature drop

Silver Bay MN: 48/5=43 degree temperature drop

Grand Marais MN: 46/1=45 degree temperature drop

Ely MN: 50/5=45 degree temperature drop

Phillips WI: 57/19=38 degree temperature drop

Embarrass MN: 46/5=41 degree temperature drop

Northome MN: 47/3=44 degree temperature drop

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

An arctic airmass is in place across our area Today with Afternoon dewpoints in the single digits below to above zero with even some minus teens in the Arrowhead. Afternoon temperatures were generally in the 20s to around 30 degrees with some lingering teens in far Northeast Minnesota. Temperatures are even colder to our north where single digits and teens were found across Southern Ontario Province This Afternoon! 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -12 to -17 degrees C across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with -20 to -28 degree C H85 temps covered areas from Northern Lake Superior into Central/Eastern Canada. Winds across our area were out of the north, west, or east Today under 20 mph. Surface map This Afternoon featured high pressure of 1031 mb across Southern Manitoba Province. Low pressure of 1000 mb was centered in far Southeast Missouri. A couple areas of low pressure 1004-1010 mb were found across the Rockies/Pacific Northwest.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Northwest flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery. Strong upper level winds 120-140 knots have shifted into Southeastern Canada This Afternoon per RUC model analysis. Polar vortex was shifting east through Hudson Bay Canada Today with 500 mb temperatures nearing -50 degrees C near the upper low! 120-180 meter 12 hour H5 height falls were occurring across Eastern Canada Today as this low tracks east. A rather strong system was moving rather rapidly toward the E/NE across the Ohio Valley/Eastern U.S. Today with an area of 60-120 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls occurring in those areas. A new storm system spreading into the Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies This Afternoon was bringing with it an area of 60-90 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls per RUC model analysis.

Tonight:

Strong high pressure (around 1032 mb) will be in control of our weather Tonight as it builds in from Western Minnesota and Manitoba Province. Clear-partly cloudy skies and chilly temperatures will be found in our area Tonight with lows in the single digits, teens, and some 20s. Winds will be out of the north, east, or south under 15 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

High pressure heads off to our east while low pressure moves into the Northern Plains. Southerly winds will develop over the Upper Midwest during this period which will result in moderating temperatures. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 40s to around 50 degrees across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin although it will be cooler especially along the North Shore of Lake Superior, possibly down into the Duluth-Superior Harbor. Lows Tomorrow Night will be mainly in the 30s. The low moving in from the west will not have much moisture to work with, but we could still see some scattered rain shower activity spread into portions of our area by Tomorrow Night. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecast on Friday with mostly cloudy skies for Friday Night. South or east winds will occur during this period at 10-20 mph, but higher gusts could occur thanks to a LOW LEVEL JET which is forecast to increase to 30-45 knots Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure along with a cold front will be tracking east through the Upper Midwest for Saturday and Saturday Night. Areas of light rain showers could accompany this weather system. Highs on Saturday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Saturday Night in the 20s and 30s. High pressure is forecast to build into our area for Sunday with some cold advection also moving in behind Saturday's system. Highs on Sunday should be mainly in the 40s, although some Northern areas could hold in the 30s while a few locales in Northwest Wisconsin/Eastern Minnesota could reach the low 50s! Lows Sunday Night will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees.

Next week's warm-up continues to show up on Today's model runs...Southwest flow aloft takes over as a Western U.S. trough develops by the middle of next week, possibly persisting into next weekend...maybe even beyond. High temperatures in the 50s and 60s are expected in our area next week with the possibility of even warmer temperatures depending on sky conditions and wind directions. Of note is the impressive 850 mb jet that the GFS develops for next week, wind speeds >40 knots from the S/SW is being forecasted at times by the GFS model and this will start to draw some gulf moisture north into our area with dewpoints climbing toward 50 degrees around the latter part next week!

Shower or thunderstorm chances will be dependent on if we see any sort of disturbance/low pressure system eject out of the 500 mb trough to our west. It appears right now that most of next week will be dry in our local area with chances for rain possibly increasing toward the Easter Weekend.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Clear with skies becoming partly to mostly cloudy late. Low 10 to 15. Wind east around 12 mph.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 42 to 47. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 33. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. Light rain possible at times. High 45 to 50. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 45 to 50.

.Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 25 to 30.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 50 to 55.

Normal High Temperature Today 38 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 20 degrees

Tim

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

3/24/10: Pictures around Duluth, MN

Took some pics with my new Kodak C180 camera Today, I'm loving this camera, pics look so much better with this new camera compared previous ones. All these photos were taken Today, Wednesday, March 24th, 2010 in Duluth, Minnesota. Enjoy!

Tim





















3/24/10: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 8:18 PM CDT, Wednesday, March 24th, 2010

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A strong cold front is marching southeast out of Northwestern Minnesota This Evening. Temperatures at 8 PM ranged from 19 degrees at Baudette, MN to 27 degrees at International Falls, MN while upper single digit and low teens were common This Evening across Manitoba/Western Ontario Provinces! Light snow was even falling at 8 PM in both Ely and Crane Lake (Northeast Minnesota).

Gusty westerly winds and mostly sunny skies were found across our area Today which resulted in another day of above normal high temperatures with upper 40s and 50s common throughout our area. 850 mb temperatures as of 7 PM were stacked up very tightly and ranged from +1 to -1 degree C from Northwest Wisconsin through Eastern Minnesota and to the Twin Ports...North of here H85 temps ranged from -2 to -11 degrees C! With -20 to -28 degree C 850 mb temps lurking across Central Canada This Evening! Winds across our area were out of the west or southwest Today at 10-25 mph.

This Evening's 500 mb analysis:

W/NW H5 flow continued across the Upper Midwest This Evening per water vapor satellite imagery. A strong area of upper level winds 100-120 knots was located across Southern Ontario Province This Evening which is helping to pull down a shot of colder air into the Upper Midwest. Upper level lows were found across Westcentral Ontario Province with movement toward the east, 60-120 meter 500 mb height falls were occurring with this system to our north This Evening per RUC model analysis. An upper level low was tracking east out of North Texas This Evening with another system approaching the Pacific Northwest.

Tonight:

A potent cold front will drop south through all of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin by Midnight Tonight. Strong cold advection will occur as this front moves through. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found across our area Tonight with some flurries or snow showers possible, mainly in Northern/Eastern Minnesota. A few lake effect snow showers could also develop Overnight in Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin, but little if any accumulation is expected. Lows Tonight will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s with northwest or west winds at 10-25 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Strong high pressure will build into our area from the west/northwest during this period. Look for partly cloudy-mostly sunny skies on Thursday with mostly clear skies for Thursday Night. Some lake effect snow showers or flurries are possible, mainly Tomorrow Morning in Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin. Highs Tomorrow will be about 20-25 degree colder compared to Today with readings mainly in the 30s, but some Northern areas could hold in the 20s. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s. Winds will be out of the north or west on Thursday at 10-20 mph with north or east winds Tomorrow Night under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Strong high pressure pushes off to our east on Friday which will make way for an area of low pressure which will move east out of the Northern Rockies. This system looks weak with little moisture associated with it. Result from this will be for only some spotty light rain shower activity on Saturday across parts of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Highs Friday and Saturday will moderate into the 40s and 50s with lows Friday Night and Saturday Night mainly in the 30s...This system exits to our east by Sunday the way it looks now with southwest winds developing by early next week along with high temperatures reaching the 50s for next Monday-Tuesday, might even be a little warmer than that depending on sky conditions.

Still appears will see a southwest flow aloft develop by the middle of next week and possibly lingering through the Easter Holiday weekend. How warm we get will depend on sky conditions, but it appears that widespread 50s and 60s are a pretty solid lock for the middle and end of next week, it may even end up warmer than this! Wind directions will play a critical role on how warm or cool it will be near Lake Superior. It does appear that will see an onshore wind develop at somepoint between next Wednesday and Thursday, once that happens temperatures will turn much cooler near Lake Superior.

Whether or not we see some shower/thunderstorm activity around our area later next week or next weekend will depend on if we see any sort of low pressure disturbance eject out of the 500 mb trough to our west.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Breezy and turning much colder. Partly to mostly cloudy. A few flurries possible late. Low 10 to 15. Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Thursday... Colder compared to Today. Partly cloudy. High 30 to 35. Wind northwest to north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 15 to 20. Wind becoming east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 42 to 47 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 33.

.Saturday... Considerable cloudiness. High 45 to 50.

.Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 45 to 50.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 38 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 20 degrees

Tim

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

3/23/2010: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 8:15 PM CDT, Tuesday, March 23rd, 2010

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Weak low pressure and cold front moved east through our local area Today, little if any precipitation occurred with this system. Mostly cloudy skies earlier in the day gave way to increasing amounts of sunshine by This Afternoon which caused temperatures to push into the 50s and lower 60s for most areas. 850 mb temperatures as of 7 PM ranged from +2 to +3 degrees C in most of Northwest Wisconsin to zero to -5 degrees C across Northern Minnesota. Note: Even colder air at the 850 mb level was located to our north across Central Canada This Evening with temps as low as -10 to -16 degrees C! Winds Today were out of the northwest or north at 10-25 mph. Surface map early This Evening featured low pressure of 1011 mb centered near Thunder Bay Ontario Canada with a cold front attached to that low extending southwest across Western Lake Superior. High pressure of 1024 was centered over the Western Dakotas while low pressure of 1018 mb was centered in Southwest Saskatchewan Province.

This Evening's 500 mb analysis:

W/NW flow aloft was found over the Upper Midwest This Evening per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis. An upper level trough was found across the Central Rockies and this system is generating some significant snowfall Tonight across portions of the Rockies including the Denver, CO metro area.

Tonight:

Mostly clear skies will be found across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with high pressure moving east out of the Northern Plains. Lows Tonight will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees with some teens possible in Northern Minnesota. Winds will be out of the north or west under 20 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Low pressure will pass by to our north during this period. A strong cold front attached to this low will drop south through our area during the late Afternoon hours on Wednesday into Wednesday Night. Cold advection and some snow flurries could develop by Wednesday Night behind this boundary. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Tomorrow Night in the teens and 20s. West winds Tomorrow will become north/northwest Tomorrow Night. An 850 mb jet up to 35 knots could result in some gusty winds up to 15-25 mph at times during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Thursday and Friday look mainly dry at this time for Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as high pressure moves across Manitoba/Western-Central Ontario Provinces. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 30s to low 40s but some 20s are possible in far Northern Minnesota. Highs on Friday will be in the 30s and 40s. Lows Thursday Night will drop into the single digits, teens, to around 20 degrees with lows Friday Night in the 20s and low 30s.

Still appears will see an area of low pressure move into the Upper Midwest via the Northern Rockies during the Friday Night/early Sunday time period, this system could bring a few showers to parts of our area on Saturday, but nothing significant is expected at this time. A stronger system with heavier precipitation is forecast to track from the Southern Plains toward the Ohio Valley this weekend, but right now it appears that this system will pass far enough to our south/southeast to prevent heavy precipitation from spreading north into our local area.

The warm-up for next week and possibly beyond next week continues to show up Today with the EUROPEAN and GFS models. Looks like a 500 mb trough will set-up across the Western U.S. by the middle of next week putting the Upper Midwest in a mild southwest/southerly flow. Daytime highs in the 50s and 60s are possible by next Tuesday with further warming a distinct possibility by the middle to end of next week. The only bad news about all this could be a lake breeze which could develop toward the middle or end of next week which would result in much cooler daytime high temperatures near Lake Superior if the onshore wind does occur.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mainly clear. Low 23 to 28. Wind northwest to north at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 48 to 53. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Breezy at times. Variable cloudiness. Flurries possible late. Low 20 to 25. Wind becoming north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts possible.

.Thursday... Flurries possible early. Partly cloudy. High 35 to 40.

.Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 15 to 20.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 38 to 43.

.Friday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 33.

.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. High 42 to 47.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 37 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 20 degrees

Tim

Monday, March 22, 2010

3/22/10: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 2:26 PM CDT, Monday, March 22nd, 2010

Weather tidbits:

*High temperature of 53 degrees at Duluth, MN on Sunday the 21st of March made it the 6th day this month with a maximum temperature of at least 50 degrees!

*Average monthly temperature at Duluth, MN thru the 21st: 36.2 degrees which is 13.0 degrees Above Normal!

*Today marks the 25th consecutive day with a maximum temperature greater than 32 degrees at Duluth, MN and with a high temperature at or above normal.

April 2010 Forecast issued by the Climate Prediction Center on March 18th, 2010.

For Duluth:

Temperatures and Precipitation: Equal Chances for Above Normal, Near Normal, or Below Normal in both departments.

April 2010 thru June 2010 Forecast issued by the Climate Prediction Center on March 18th, 2010.

For Duluth:

Temperatures and Precipitation: Equal Chances for Above Normal, Near Normal, or Below Normal in both departments.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Mostly cloudy skies were found across most of Northern-Northeast Minnesota Today with mainly high level clouds doing a pretty good job at blocking out the sun. Areas farther west/south and across Northwest Wisconsin had partly cloudy-mostly sunny skies Today. High temperatures were in the 40s and 50s Today with 30s along the North Shore of Lake Superior. A tight baroclinic zone was in place Today with 850 mb temperatures as of 2 PM ranging from -6 to -20 degrees C across Central-Northern Canada to the teens above zero C from the Northern Plains through the Rockies. Around our local area, H85 temps ranged from -1 to +3 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the south or east at 10-25 mph. Surface map This Afternoon featured a warm front across Southern Ontario Province. Low pressure of 1004 mb was centered in Northern South Dakota with a cold front attached to that low covering Central South Dakota. Low pressure of 1006 mb was centered in Southern Manitoba Province with a cold front attached to that low centered in Northern North Dakota. High pressure of 1028 mb was centered in Western Quebec Province.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Westerly flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery with a shortwave trough associated with pockets of 60 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls heading east across the Northern Plains. Strong upper level low (540 meters) was centered in Eastern Tennessee per RUC model analysis with deep Atlantic moisture running north/west across the far Eastern U.S./Northeast U.S. which is setting the stage for yet another flooding rain episode for those areas into mid-week.

Tonight:

Low pressure will head east into the Upper Midwest during this period while a cold front drops south/east into Northcentral Minnesota during the Overnight hours. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will cover our area Tonight with the potential for a few showers, mainly across Northern Minnesota. Lows Tonight will be mainly 30s with south, east, or north winds under 20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Low pressure and it's cold front will exit Eastern Minnesota Tomorrow Morning and will exit Northwest Wisconsin by mid or late Afternoon Tomorrow, high pressure will then build into the region from the west behind this system by Tuesday Night. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will occur on Tuesday with the potential for a few showers, but nothing significant is expected at this time. Expect clear-partly cloudy skies for Tuesday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 40s and 50s with cooler temps near Lake Superior. Lows Tomorrow Night will be mainly in the 20s, but some teens are possible in Northern Minnesota. Winds on Tuesday will be out of the south, north, or east under 20 mph with north or west winds Tomorrow Night under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

An area of low pressure will track north of our area during the Wednesday-Thursday time period. A strong cold front attached to this low will sink south through Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Wednesday Evening into early Thursday. A few flurries could occur behind this boundary by Wednesday Night-Thursday Morning. There's also a threat for some lake effect snow showers on Thursday along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin as H85 temperatures drop to around -12 degrees C! High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 40s and 50s across our area with lows Wednesday Night in the teens and 20s. Highs on Thursday will be in the 30s and 40s but some areas in the North could hold in the 20s. Lows Thursday Night will be in the teens and 20s with some single digits possible up North.

From Friday through Sunday will have to monitor a low heading east from the Northern Rockies and a low across the Plains. Right now it appears that the Southern low would have the most moisture which would keep the bulk of the heavier precipitation to our south while some lighter rain would occur across parts of our area this weekend. If the Plains low heads farther north, then we could see heavier precipitation in parts of our area this weekend. Some gusty easterly winds could also develop around our area this weekend depending on how things set-up.

Note: EUROPEAN and the GFS model are in rather good agreement Today on the pattern change that is forecast to take place by the middle or end of next week into the 1st week of April. A southwest flow aloft is forecast to develop during that aforementioned time period with a 500 mb trough setting up across the Western U.S. Right now the long range models are showing 850 mb temperatures climbing to around +8 degrees C for the middle and end of next week, this combined with no snow left on the ground could result in daytime highs reaching the 60s...Possibly the 70s around most of Minnesota. Also with southerly winds developing ahead of a storm to our west, dewpoints should start to increase, possibly reaching 50 degrees if not higher! Eventually will likely see some sort of low pressure system eject out of the Western U.S. trough, and this could result in the first convective outbreak of the season for portions of the Upper Midwest possibly around the Easter Holiday weekend.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday... Mostly cloudy. High 45 to 50. Wind northeast to north at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Clearing. Low 23 to 28. Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 45 to 50.

.Wednesday Night... Variable cloudiness. Flurries possible late. Low 20 to 25.

.Thursday... Flurries possible early. Partly sunny. High 35 to 40.

.Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 17 to 23.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 37 to 42.

Normal High Temperature Today 36 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 19 degrees

Tim

Sunday, March 21, 2010

3/21/2010: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:37 PM CDT, Sunday, March 21st, 2010

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

West-southwest winds and mostly sunny skies helped to boost temperatures Today. Highs reached the mid 40s to lower 50s across our area Today with 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranging from -1 to -5 degrees C. Note: A tightening baroclinic zone is developing Today with H85 temps of -10 to -22 degrees C to our north in Central/Northern Canada while +6 to +10 degree C H85 temps covered the Northern Plains and Northern Rockies Today. This baroclinic zone is expected to waffle north and south through next weekend and will make temperature forecasting quite difficult especially by later this week. Surface map This Afternoon featured high pressure of 1020 mb to our south/east with a cold front extending from extreme Northern Minnesota west through Southern Saskatchewan Province and east through Southern/Eastern Ontario Province. Low pressure of 1006 mb was centered in Central Arkansas while a 1006 mb low was centered in Southeast Alberta Province.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

West/northwest flow aloft prevailed across the Upper Midwest Today while a southwest flow aloft covered the Eastern U.S. A potent upper level low (540 meters) was tracking east out of Southern Arkansas and Louisiana This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery. Intense 150-210 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls existed near this H5 low across portions of the Southeast U.S. Today, this system has produced some wintry precipitation at times across the Southern U.S. Today!

Tonight through Monday Night:

Cold front currently hugging the Minnesota-Ontario line will sag a bit to the south Tonight, likely staying north of the Twin Ports...This boundary will then retreat back to the north on Monday and Monday Night while low pressure heads east out of the Northern Rockies Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night while dragging another cold front along with it. Clear-partly cloudy skies will cover our area Tonight with partly-mostly cloudy skies expected for Monday and Monday Night. There is a small risk for a shower or two in far Northern Minnesota mainly Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night. Lows Tonight will be mainly in the 20s and 30s with lows Tomorrow Night mainly in the 30s. Highs on Monday will be in the 40s and 50s, but it will be cooler along the North Shore of Lake Superior down through the Duluth/Superior Harbor areas. Winds will be out of the south or southwest Tonight with south or east winds Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night. Wind speeds will generally be under 20 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Cold front will be exiting our local area to the south/east on Tuesday. Small chance for a shower does exist as this front moves through on Tuesday, but nothing significant is expected. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Tuesday Night mainly in the 20s. High pressure will bring dry conditions to our area for Wednesday with highs generally in the 40s. A cold front will then drop south through Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Wednesday Night and Thursday as low pressure passes by to our north/northeast. Could see a few flakes drift south into Northern Minnesota sometime Wednesday Night-Thursday, but the most significant snow or rain associated with that mid-week system is expected to stay off to our north. High temps on Wednesday will be mainly in the 40s with lows Wednesday Night mainly in the 20s.

The period from Friday through next Sunday features quite a bit of uncertainty at the moment in regards to temperatures and whether or not we are impacted by some sort of low pressure system approaching from the west and possibly the Plains.

Note: Recent runs per EUROPEAN forecast model and GFS model have shown a major warm-up across the Upper Midwest toward the middle of next week into early April, or from around March 30th-31st and the first couple days of April. Should this happen, then we could see widespread 60s if not 70 degree weather around most of Minnesota during that time period, there would also be a risk for thunderstorm activity at some point during this period.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Clear to partly cloudy. Low 28 to 33. Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph, becoming southeast toward dawn.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday... Mostly cloudy. High 47 to 52.

.Tuesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 23 to 28.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 43 to 48.

.Wednesday Night... Variable cloudiness. Low 20 to 25.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. High 35 to 40.

Normal High Temperature Today 36 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 19 degrees

Tim

Saturday, March 20, 2010

3/20/2010: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:56 PM CDT, Saturday, March 20th, 2010

Weather tibits:

*Low temperature of 15 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota This Morning was the coldest low temperature since March 3rd, 2010. Low temperature on that day was 18 degrees.

*Trace of snow at Duluth, Minnesota on Friday, March 19th, 2010 was the first measurable snow since February 25th, 2010 when 0.3" of snow fell.

*We made it above freezing once again Today at Duluth, Minnesota. This makes it the 23rd day in a row with a maximum temperature greater than 32 degrees.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Some clouds have been pushing through Koochiching/Northwest Itasca Counties in Northern Minnesota Today, otherwise mainly sunny skies were found across our area with high temperatures right around normal for this time of year with most locales in the 30s. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -9 to -11 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the southwest, west, or northwest at 10-25 mph. Surface map This Afternoon featured high pressure of 1030 mb centered in Eastern South Dakota. Low pressure of 1012 mb was centered in Central Arkansas...This low pressure system has been responsible in producing some fairly heavy snow Today across portions of the Central-Southern Plains.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

West-northwest flow aloft prevailed across the Upper Midwest Today per RUC model analysis. An upper level ridge (SW flow aloft) covered the Eastern U.S., while a strong upper level trough covered the Central-Southern Plains with 60-90 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls occurring This Afternoon in parts of Oklahoma and Texas.

Tonight:

Clear to partly cloudy skies will be found across our area with high pressure heading south/east out of the Northern Plains. Warm advection along with a W/SW 850 mb jet around 30 knots are forecast to spread into the Upper Midwest during the night, but low temperatures will remain a tad chilly with teens and 20s across our area. Expect winds from the west, southwest, or northwest under 15 mph Tonight.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

High pressure will be centered to our south/east during this period while a cold front currently moving into Central Manitoba Province drops south into far Northern Minnesota by late Sunday Night. High temperatures on Sunday should warm into the 40s and 50s in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s and 30s. Southwest or west winds are expected on Sunday under 20 mph with south or east winds Tomorrow Night under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A cold front will settle south/east across our area around Tuesday while a wave of low pressure tracks east out of the Western High Plains. This system could bring a few rain showers to parts of our area from Monday Night through Tuesday Night, but nothing significant is expected at this time. For Monday Night, the best chance for a shower or two would be in extreme Northern Minnesota, this chance albeit a slight one would then shift more to the south/east on Tuesday. High temperatures for Monday and Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s, but some 60s are possible in parts of Northwest Wisconsin. It will be cooler near Lake Superior though as onshore winds occur on Monday. High pressure looks to build into the Upper Midwest for mid-week, then late next week into next weekend will feature high pressure off to our north with a baroclinic zone setting up somewhere in the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest and Southern Canada. We could see a low pressure wave or two track along this temperature gradient sometime late next week or next weekend. None of those systems look very strong at this time so any precipitation that could fall looks to stay rather light and spotty. How warm or cold we are will depend on how the baroclinic zone sets up and the models continue to differ with each new run as to where it will be located.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mainly clear. Low 20 to 25. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Mostly sunny. Warmer. High 48 to 53. Wind west to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.

.Tuesday... Mostly cloudy. High 47 to 52.

.Tuesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 23 to 28.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 43 to 48.

Normal High Temperature Today 36 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 18 degrees

Tim

Friday, March 19, 2010

3/19/2010: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:47 PM CDT, Friday, March 19th, 2010

Weather tidbits:

*High temperature for Today occurred at Midnight last night when it was 40 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota. This makes it the 22nd consecutive day with an above normal high temperature and a maximum temperature greater than 32 degrees.

*Thursday, March 18th, 2010 was the 5th day in a row that featured a maximum temperature of at least 50 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota. This ties the record for consecutive days of 50 degree or warmer high temperatures for the month of March. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

*Previous records include:

*March 25th-29th, 1946... High temperatures during that streak were at least 60 degrees with the earliest 80 degree high temperature ever at Duluth, MN occurring on the 28th when the high temperature was 81 degrees!

*March 26th-30th, 1968

*March 3rd-7th, 2000... Duluth's earliest 70 degree high temperature occurred during this streak on the 7th with a high temperature of 70 degrees!

*March 14th-18th, 2010

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Quite a change in temperatures across our area Today compared to recent days thanks to the cold front which moved through on Thursday and also due to the extensive cloudiness which covered all of our area through early This Afternoon, but sunshine has been increasing during the Mid-Afternoon hours from north to south across Northern Minnesota. Temperatures This Afternoon were running a good 20-30 degrees colder compared to 24 hours ago with upper 20s and 30s across our area which is around or slightly below average for this time of year. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -7 to -13 degrees C across Northwest Wisconsin and Northern Minnesota. A strengthening baroclinic zone developing Today with -20 degree C H85 temps across Central Canada and +10 degree or greater H85 temps across the Southern Plains will help in the development of a storm system in coming days and this system has the potential of dropping one foot or more of snow across parts of Oklahoma this weekend! Surface map This Afternoon featured low pressure of 1004 mb centered in Western Quebec Province with high pressure of 1032 mb centered in Southwest Saskatchewan Province.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

West/southwest flow aloft was evident Today per water vapor satellite imagery across the Upper Midwest. An H5 trough was digging south across the Rockies with three pockets of strong upper level winds (>100 knots) per RUC model analysis. One area was across the Northern-Central Rockies on the backside of the 500 mb trough. Another area extended from Northern Minnesota across Lake Superior into Eastern Canada. The final area was found from Northern Mexico through Southern Texas into the Central-Northern Gulf Of Mexico and across Central-Southern Florida.

Tonight:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with strong high pressure well to our west. Tonight's temperatures will be the coldest we have seen since earlier this month. Lows Tonight will drop into the teens and 20s, but some single digits are possible in Northern Minnesota. Winds Tonight will be out of the northwest under 20 mph.

Note: With the colder air moving over Lake Superior some lake effect snow showers have developed This Afternoon across Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin. A check of the Iron Nugget Webcam late Today does show some snow falling, but no accumulation. If these snow showers linger after sunset, then a dusting to 1" of snow could accumulate mainly over Iron County Wisconsin.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

High pressure will be in control of our weather during this period. We should see more sunshine Tomorrow compared to Today with highs mainly in the 30s to lower 40s. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the teens and 20s. Northwest or west winds are expected at 20 mph or less through this period.

Extended Forecast:

Warmer temperatures look to be moving in for Sunday into early next week as a cold front approaches the Upper Midwest from the north, a southwesterly wind will be found south of that boundary for Sunday and this combined with some sunshine and little if any snow left on the ground should lead to high temperatures reaching the 40s and 50s across our local area. By early next week, there are differences on where the cold front sets up...If it's south of our area then will see cooler temps and east winds occur along with a threat for some light overrunning rain, but if this boundary sets up more to the north/west, then a southerly wind and very mild temperatures will be found across our area with a smaller risk for some showers. Right now it appears as if the front will cut our local area in half with onshore winds and cool temps occurring close to Lake Superior and from the Iron Range on north, while Southern parts of our area see mild temperatures linger for early next week.

The cold front then looks to pass through all of our area sometime Tuesday Night or early Wednesday with a few rain and or snow showers possible at it moves through. No significant precipitation is expected, however, through early next week.

Looks like a rather strong baroclinic zone will establish itself across Canada and the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest by late next week while a polar vortex sits across Northern Canada. Some quick moving low pressure waves look to track along this temperature gradient and those systems could bring some rain or snow to parts of our area sometime late next week or next weekend. Right now it doesn't appear that any of those systems would be very strong, but this could change in coming days. How cold or how warm we are will depend on where the baroclinic zone sets-up and the models have been and will continue to waffle north and south with the placement of this for the next couple of days.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Much colder compared to recent nights. Decreasing cloudiness. Low 15 to 20. Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph This Evening.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 35 to 40. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 20 to 25. Wind west under 12 mph.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. Warmer. High 48 to 53.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. High 47 to 52.

Normal High Temperature Today 35 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 18 degrees

Tim

Thursday, March 18, 2010

3/18/2010: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:22 PM CST, Thursday, March 18th, 2010

...MARCH WARMTH CONTINUES...

*Today marks the 21st consecutive day (3 weeks) of an Above Normal High Temperature and a high temperature greater than 32 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

*Average monthly temperature thru the 17th at Duluth, MN: 36.5 degrees which is 14.0 degrees Above Normal.

*9 consecutive nights with a low temperature greater than 32 degrees at Duluth, MN. This ties the previous record from March 3rd-15th, 1878. The last time the low temperature was under 32 degrees this month was on the 8th.

*Today marks the 5th consecutive day with a high temperature of 50 degrees or warmer at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Another very mild day Today with high temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies covered our area Today as a cold front passes south/east through our area. The airmass is quite dry across Minnesota This Afternoon with dewpoints mainly in the 20s and a few 30s while PWS were generally under one half inch, as a result no precipitation has been occurring, although there has been an area of virga or rain aloft an a arc from South Dakota east-northeast to Western/Central Minnesota This Afternoon due to some frontogenesis. Colder air is lurking to our west/northwest Today as evident by both the surface temperature and 850 mb temperature maps. Surface temps ranged from the single digits to the 20s across parts of Saskatchewan/Manitoba/and Western Ontario Provinces This Afternoon while 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +1 to +5 degrees C across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin while zero to -12 degree C H85 temperatures were found from Northwest Minnesota and Central-Northern North Dakota into Central and Western Canada. Surface map late This Afternoon featured low pressure of 1004 mb centered in Southwest Ontario Province with a cold front exiting Eastern Minnesota while a secondary cold front drops south/east from far Southern Manitoba and far Southern Saskatchewan Provinces.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Westerly flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest Today per RUC model analysis while a 100 knot jet streak was located across Western-Central North Dakota or on the southwest side of a strong 500 mb low which was tracking east out of the Manitoba Lakes region late Today. Widespread 60-150 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls were found over the Central-Northern Rockies/Upper Midwest/Northern Plains and Central portions of Canada Today per RUC model analysis as an upper level trough dives south out of Western Canada and the areas west of the Rocky Mountains.

Tonight through Friday Night:

A cold front will exit Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota early This Evening while a secondary cold front drops quickly southeast through our area Tonight. A few light sprinkles may occur This Evening in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as some F-GEN forcing remains over Southern parts of our area This Evening, but nothing significant is expected. Some flurries could fly late Tonight and Tomorrow Morning in extreme Northern Minnesota near the surface and 500 mb low moving east through Southern Ontario Province Tonight and early Tomorrow, but all of the sticking snow will remain north of the border. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover our area during this period with lows Tonight in the 20s and 30s with highs Tomorrow in the 30s and 40s, although some locations could struggle to reach 30 degrees in Northern Minnesota. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the teens and 20s. West or northwest winds of 10-25 mph will be common Tonight and Tomorrow and generally under 15 mph Tomorrow Night.

Extended Forecast:

This weekend into Monday of next week look mainly dry at this time across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with above normal temperatures expected at this time. High temperatures will be mainly in the 40s for Saturday and Sunday, but some Northern locales could hold in the 30s on Saturday while some areas could flirt with 50 degrees on Sunday. Low temperatures will be mainly in the 20s, but some teens are possible Saturday Night in the traditional cold spots.

While our neck of the woods stay snow-free this weekend, this won't be the case for portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois and Iowa where some late season snow is expected from Tomorrow through Sunday. There are Winter Storm Watches in effect for parts of Oklahoma, Kansas and the Texas Panhandle for this weekend!

Plenty of model uncertainty exists for next week as the long range models have been changing quite a bit from one run to the next. As it stands now, it appears that will see some sort of low head E/NE out of the Western High Plains during the Tuesday-Wednesday time period while a cold front sinks south through the Upper Midwest. This system could bring some overrunning rain and possibly a bit of wet snow to Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin around mid-week, although right now this doesn't look like it'll be a very big deal.

Another shot of colder air could then return late next week per latest model trends...But then another surge of unseasonably warm temperatures...(Possibly 60s or 70s) could then return to much of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest sometime the last few days of March or in early April. Note: This warm-up has a better chance of taking place if we can stay away from any big snowfalls prior to the last few days of March, and also if the upper level winds transition to a more zonal pattern which is what the long range GFS model is showing Today. Chances of staying away from any big snow around our area seem pretty high Today, but whether or not we see a zonal flow or more of a northwesterly flow is somewhat uncertain at this time.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Variable cloudiness. Breezy at times. Low 27 to 32. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts.

.Friday... Colder compared to recent days, but still above normal for mid-March. Partly sunny. High 37 to 42. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 20 to 25. Wind northwest under 12 mph.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 40 to 45.

.Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 22 to 27.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 45 to 50.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 45 to 50.

Normal High Temperature Today 35 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 17 degrees

Tim

Some random pics from 3/17/10

Wednesday, March, 17th, 2010 was the type of day that you wish would never end! Sunshine with some passing high level clouds, a nice W/SW wind and high temperatures around 60 degrees in Duluth, Minnesota! Took a walk along the Munger Trail in Duluth, MN to enjoy the day. Only saw a patch or two of dirty snow in the fields, some slush/ice/water on a small stream/creek, and of course the ski slopes of Spirit Mountain still has a nice snow pack, actually could see some people going down the slopes enjoying this incredible warmth! Also of note, some trees are beginning to bud that is truely amazing for mid March!

Tim





















Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Jay Cooke State Park Photos

Here's some pics I took from my little trip through Jay Cooke State Park, MN and the area around the St. Louis River. These pics are from March 6th, 2010. Enjoy!

Tim










3/17/2010: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:02 PM CDT, Wednesday, March 17th, 2010

Weather History:

One year ago Today the high temperature was 50 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Very mild temperatures and a rather gusty west or southwest wind were found across our area Today. High temperatures were mainly in the 50s and lower 60s Today with 850 mb temperatures as of 6 PM ranging from +5 to +6 degrees C. Winds Today increased from the west/southwest at 10-25 mph with a few higher gusts. A low level jet >30 knots at times led to those higher winds that occurred in parts of our area Today. Surface map early This Evening featured high pressure of 1016 mb centered in Central Kansas while a few areas of low pressure 1008-1012 mb were centered to our northwest. A cold front connected to these lows extended from Central Ontario Province through Southeast Saskatchewan Province to Eastern Montana.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

A near zonal (west-east flow) was found across the Upper Midwest late Today per RUC model analysis. A strong upper level low was tracking east through Central Saskatchewan Province early This Evening per water vapor satellite imagery with intense 90-120 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls occurring late Today across portions of Central-Western Canada.

Tonight:

Clear to partly cloudy skies will be found in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with high pressure centered in the Central Plains while a cold front tracks south/east out of the Northern Rockies-Western Dakotas. A 25-35 knot W/SW H85 jet will be in place ahead of this cold front across our area Tonight which will result in warm air advection through the night. 850 mb temperatures sitting around +5 degrees C early This Evening are forecast to rise to between +8 to +11 degrees C Overnight as a thermal ridge which was over the Dakotas This Afternoon advects south/east just ahead of the cold front. Lows Tonight will be mainly in the 30s with southwest or west winds generally under 20 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Low pressure will pass by to our north during this period while a cold front attached to this low sweeps south/east through Northern Minnesota Tomorrow Morning and Northwest Wisconsin Tomorrow Afternoon. Several inches of snow will occur across Central Canada with this system from Tonight through Tomorrow Night, but our local area should be mainly dry, although a few light rain showers can't be ruled out in far Northern Minnesota on Thursday. One more day of unseasonably mild temperatures will occur on Thursday as highs reach the 50s to lower 60s once again while Northern areas will be in the 40s. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 20s and 30s. West or southwest winds will shift to the northwest and west once the cold front passes through. Wind speeds from 10-25 mph will be common during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Mainly dry conditions are forecast on Friday and Saturday throughout Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Main action zone in terms of rain and possibly some heavy early Spring snow will be found across the Plains and Southern/Eastern parts of Wisconsin from Friday into early Sunday. High temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s across our area for Friday and Saturday with lows in the teens and 20s both nights.

A vigorous upper level disturbance and surface low will approach from the northwest on Sunday, this feature could bring a few snow and or rain showers to our area on Sunday followed by some possible flurries for Sunday Night, nothing significant in terms of snow or rain are expected at this time.

The period from Tuesday through Thursday of next week will need to be watched as that is when our next best chance for rain or perhaps some snow would occur, however, the models are flip flopping back and fourth on the track of this system as it exits the Rockies around the middle of next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 32 to 37. Wind west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Breezy at times. Partly cloudy. High 53 to 58. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts possible.

.Thursday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 40 to 45.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 38 to 43.

.Saturday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 17 to 23.

.Sunday... Variable cloudiness. Snow or rain showers possible. High 35 to 40. Chance of precipitation 20%.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 35 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 17 degrees

Tim