Sunday, February 28, 2010

2/28/2010: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:30 PM CST, Sunday, February 28th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date last year, the low temperature at Duluth Minnesota was -18 degrees.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Mostly cloudy skies continued to cover portions of Northwest Wisconsin Today while sunny skies continued in Northern Minnesota. Highs Today were mainly in the 30s with a few locales in Minnesota climbing to 40 degrees. Winds Today were out of the north or east under 15 mph. Surface map This Afternoon featured high pressure of 1022-1030 mb strectching from the Northern Plains to Ontario Province. Low pressure of 1000 mb was centered in Western New Mexico.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Upper level lows covered the Southwest U.S. and Northeast U.S. with a north/northwest 500 mb flow covering the Upper Midwest.

Tonight through Monday Night:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found across our area during this period. A few flurries could fall in the Arrowhead of Minnesota and in parts of Northern Wisconsin Tonight, otherwise mainly dry conditions should prevail. Lows Tonight and Tomorrow Night will be in the single digits and teens but some of the traditional cold spots could drop into the single digits below zero both nights. Highs Tomorrow will be mainly in the 30s. North, northeast, or west winds will continue under 15 mph with high pressure continuing to sit across the Northern Plains.

Extended Forecast:

Mainly dry conditions will continue from Tuesday through the end of the week with a blocking pattern remaining in place across the Upper Midwest. High temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday will be mainly in the 30s with lows Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night in the single digits and teens.

Looking out toward late next weekend and into early the following week, or from March 7th-10th is a period to keep an eye on as there could be a rather strong low pressure system lifting northeast out of the Plains. GFS model Today is the most progressive with this system while the EUROPEAN model has trended much more amplified and much slower in lifting the system out of the Plains. Still plenty of time to monitor this potential storm system that may impact Minnesota sometime between the 7th-10th of March. Should this storm move our way, then we could see some wind, snow, and rain around the Upper Midwest at somepoint during that aforementioned time period.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 11 to 16. Wind north to northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 32 to 37. Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 10 to 15. Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. High 30 to 35.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 10 to 15.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 30 to 35.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 10 to 15.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 32 to 37.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 29 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 10 degrees

Tim

Saturday, February 27, 2010

2/27/2010: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:19 PM CST, Saturday, February 27th, 2010

Weather tidbits:

-Chile hit by an 8.8 magnitude earthquake early Today.

-The only 8.8 earthquake in U.S. history was Alaska (1957) The 8 biggest earthquakes in the U.S. were all in Alaska. Source: Minnesota Public Radio.

-A magnitude 5.0 earthquake hit Minnesota on July 9th, 1975. Source: Paul Douglas

-February 2010 is on the verge of being the first month since January 2007 with sunspots every single day of the month

-Today marks the 7th day this month at Duluth Minnesota with a high temperature at or above 32 degrees

-February 2009 had 8 days with a high temperature at or above 32 degrees at Duluth with 1 day with a high temperature of 40 degrees, this occurred on the 10th

-Last time 1" or more of snow fell at Duluth Minnesota was on the 14th of this month

-Possible pattern shift between March 7th-10th?

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Locations from Ashland to Hayard Wisconsin on east saw mostly cloudy skies Today with even a few reports of flurries and very light snow in parts of Iron County Wisconsin, the remainder of our area saw lots of sunshine Today. High temperatures Today were generally in the 30s with even a few locales nearing 40 degrees This Afternoon in Northern/Eastern Minnesota. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM were around -4 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the north under 15 mph. Surface map This Afternoon featured a 1020-1026 mb high pressure ridge off to our west with low pressure of 998 mb centered in Central New York.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

North/northwest upper level flow persisted across the Upper Midwest Today per RUC model analysis. (522-528) meter 500 mb low covered the Northeast U.S. with mid/high level moisture continuing to shift west off that low into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Eastcentral portions of Canada per water vapor satellite imagery. An active storm track continues from the Pacific Ocean through the Western-Southwest U.S., east through the Southern Plains then toward the Western Atlantic with little change expected with this pattern through the next 5 days. The system moving into the Four Corners (SW U.S.) Today was rather vigorous with 90-120 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls occurring from SoCal to Arizona per RUC model analysis.

Tonight through Sunday Night:

High pressure will remain off to our west/northwest while an upper level low digs south/east out of Western Ontario-Eastern Manitoba Provinces toward Western Lake Superior during this period. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover Northwest Wisconsin and far Northeast Minnesota with generally partly cloudy conditions occurring in Northern Minnesota. Flurries or a few light snow showers could fall from time to time in portions of Northwest Wisconsin and extreme Northeast Minnesota, but no accumulations are expected at this time. Lows Tonight and Tomorrow Night will be in the single digits and teens with highs Tomorrow generally in the 30s. Winds will be out of the north or northeast under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Very quiet conditions will continue for the Upper Midwest for most of next week as high pressure remains in control while a new storm takes aim at the Southern U.S. and Mid-Atlantic where rain and snow will occur during the early to mid part of next week. High temperatures across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will be mainly in the 30s for Monday and Tuesday with low temperatures in the single digits and teens for Monday Night and Tuesday Night.

Note: The long range forecast models per EUROPEAN and GFS from yesterday and Today are showing a rather strong storm system moving into the Central Plains, and possibly into the Upper Midwest sometime between March 8th-10th which could bring snow or rain to the Upper Midwest during that time. The track of this system, as well as the timing and strength will change from model run to model run during the next 7 days or so, but there are at least some signs that the weather pattern may start to shift toward the second week of March.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 10 to 15. Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Partly to mostly sunny. High 32 to 37. Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 12 to 17. Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 30 to 35.

.Monday Night... Mostly clear. Low 5 to 10.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 32 to 37.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 10 to 15.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 32 to 37.

Normal High Temperature Today 28 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 10 degrees

Tim

Friday, February 26, 2010

2/26/2010: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 2:45 PM CST, Friday, February 26th, 2010

Here are some low temperatures that occurred around Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin earlier Today, Friday, February 26th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

International Falls MN: -11 degrees

Silver Bay MN: -15 degrees

Ely MN: -17 degrees

Orr MN: -11 degrees

Crane Lake MN: -15 degrees

Cook MN: -13 degrees

Bigfork MN: -11 degrees

Longville MN: -11 degrees

Pine River MN: -11 degrees

Hayward WI: -11 degrees

Brainerd MN: -12 degrees

Embarrass MN: -24 degrees

3 miles West of Floodwood MN: -16 degrees

Hinckley MN: -11 degrees

Kabetogama MN: -15 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: -22 degrees

Littlefork MN: -14 degrees

2 miles South of Tower MN: -20 degrees

Upson WI: -16 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Mainly sunny skies were found throughout our area Today with high temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s with 850 mb temperatures as of 2 PM ranging from -6 to -8 degrees C. Dewpoints in Northeast Minnesota were in the single digits and teens below zero This Afternoon, an extremely dry airmass overhead Today! Winds Today were generally out of the north or east under 15 mph. Surface map This Afternoon featured a 1022-1026 mb high pressure ridge extending from Central Ontario Province south through Minnesota. Low pressure of 992 mb was centered just east-northeast of New Jersey.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Strong upper level low (522 meters) covered parts of the Northeast U.S. Today per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery. Mid and high level moisture was spreading west off that system with moisture (in the upper levels) as far west as the Central Great Lakes region as of mid-Afternoon. Two large storms were located across the Pacific Ocean with strong 120-150 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls occurring near the first system just off-shore from California This Afternoon per RUC model analysis.

Tonight:

Clear to partly cloudy skies will prevail for most of our local area Tonight, but clouds will increase in portions of Northwest Wisconsin and in far Northeast Minnesota during the night due to that large storm across the Northeast U.S. spreading some moisture west toward our area. Lows Tonight will be in the single digits below to above zero but some minus teens are possible in the traditional cold spots. With high pressure nearby, winds Tonight will be fairly light, generally under 15 mph and out of the north.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin during this period with high pressure across the Upper Midwest while upper level and surface low pressure remain over the Northeast U.S. Moisture wrapping west off that East Coast storm could result in the development of some flurries or light snow showers at times during this period...Mainly from far Northeast Minnesota into parts of Northwest Wisconsin, little if any accumulation is expected though. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Tomorrow Night mainly in the teens. Winds will be out of the north or east under 20 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Looks like will see an upper level low pressure system develop somewhere in the Southern Ontario Province/Western Great Lakes vicinity late this weekend or early next week, this system once it develops will then drop south/southeast toward the Southern Great Lakes around Tuesday of next week. No significant snow is expected with this system, but we could see some snow flurries or snow showers at times across parts of our area from Sunday into Tuesday, but little accumulation is expected at this time. High temperatures for Sunday and Monday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Sunday Night and Monday Night mainly in the teens.

Lake Effect Snow Threat:

Although winds will be turning to the northeast this weekend into early next week, it appears that temperatures will remain too warm to support any substanial lake effect snow development near Lake Superior. Right now it looks like 850 mb temperatures will be holding around -5 to -8 degrees C which is too warm to support heavy lake effect snowfall. We do have some moisture heading west across Lake Superior, however, especially this weekend before the atmosphere dries out once again by early next week, but nothing more than some light lake effect snow showers and flurries are expected along the North and South Shore of Lake Superior from Saturday Night through Sunday.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Clear to partly cloudy. Low zero to 5 below. Wind north under 12 mph.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. High 30 to 35. Wind north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night... Variable cloudiness. Flurries possible. Low 10 to 15. Wind northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Considerable cloudiness. Flurries possible. High 28 to 33.

.Sunday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 12 to 17.

.Monday... Partly sunny. High 29 to 34.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 5 to 10.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. High 30 to 35.

Normal High Temperature Today 28 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 9 degrees

Tim


Thursday, February 25, 2010

2/25/2010: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:11 PM CST, Thursday, February 25th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 2007... 1.06" of precipitation with 11.3" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

On this date in 1990... A record low temperature of -26 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Here are some low temperatures across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from earlier Today, Thursday, February 25th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: -9 degrees

International Falls MN: -14 degrees

Brainerd MN: -11 degrees

Hibbing MN: -14 degrees

Silver Bay MN: -18 degrees

Ely MN: -24 degrees

Orr MN: -18 degrees

Crane Lake MN: -22 degrees

Cook MN: -20 degrees

Eveleth MN: -15 degrees

Bigfork MN: -17 degrees

Cloquet MN: -13 degrees

Hayward WI: -13 degrees

Superior WI: -8 degrees

Siren WI: -10 degrees

Cass Lake MN: -17 degrees

Embarrass MN: -24 degrees

3 miles West of Floodwood MN: -18 degrees

Kabetogama MN: -21 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: -24 degrees

Littlefork MN: -19 degrees

Northome MN: -21 degrees

2 miles South of Tower MN: -21 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Sunshine with high temperatures generally in the 20s were found across our area Today with 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM sitting right around -10 degrees C. Winds Today were variable under 12 mph. Surface map late Today shows a high pressure ridge of 1024-1030 mb extending from the Upper Midwest north to Ontario Province while low pressure of 984 mb was centered east of New Jersey.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Amplified N/NW flow covered the Upper Midwest Today. Strong upper level winds >130 knots covered areas from South Florida through the Western Atlantic which is helping in generating a powerful storm in the Northeast U.S. Mid/high level moisture associated with this strengthening low was spreading west through Eastern Canada This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery. An area of 110 knot upper level winds extended from the Pacific Northwest southeast through Southern New Mexico-West Texas with a fairly vigorous shortwave trough pushing east/southeast out of the Southern Rockies per water vapor satellite imagery/RUC model analysis.

Tonight through Friday Night:

Dry weather will prevail during this period with high pressure in control of our weather. Lows Tonight will be in the single digits below to above zero with some teens and possibly 20s below zero in the traditional cold spots. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the single digits below to above zero with highs Tomorrow in the 20s to low 30s. Variable or northerly winds are forecast during this period under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Moisture spreading west off that strong Northeast U.S. storm will find it's way into Northern Wisconsin and possibly Northeast Minnesota this weekend. Could see some flurries or snow showers occur mainly in Northern Wisconsin and far Northeast Minnesota from late Saturday into early Monday, this doesn't look like a big snow event with accumulations if any remaining under 1". High temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be in the 20s and 30s across our area with lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night in the single digits and teens. Appears will see a cold front and possibly an upper level low pressure system develop across the Upper Midwest around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, no big snows are expected with that system, but we could see another round of flurries or snow showers for parts of our local area sometime the early or middle part of next week.

In general no big changes are expected with the upper level pattern through next week, possibly even into the second week of March. Any snow events that may impact our local area during the next week or two would be caused by cold fronts and or upper level lows that traverse the Upper Midwest, but no significant storm systems are on the horizon anytime soon for Minnesota.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 5 below to 10 below. Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Friday... Mostly sunny. High 27 to 32. Wind north around 12 mph.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 2 to 7. Wind north around 10 mph.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. High 30 to 35.

.Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 8 to 13.

.Sunday... Considerable cloudiness. High 28 to 33.

.Sunday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 10 to 15.

.Monday... Partly sunny. High 28 to 33.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 28 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 9 degrees

Tim

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

2/24/2010: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 8:39 PM CST, Wednesday, February 24th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 2001... 0.67" of precipitation with 11.7" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Here are some snowfall reports from Northwest Wisconsin. Source NWS Duluth, MN. Snow totals are from Tuesday and Today...

Gile WI (Iron County) 21.5"

Mellen WI (Ashland County) 8.0"

Gurney WI (Iron County) 14.0"

1 mile Southwest of Bayfield WI (Bayfield County) 2.2"

Hurley WI (Iron County) 11-12"

Saxon WI (Iron County) 8.0"

Montreal WI (Iron County) 14.0"

Here are some low temperatures across Northern Minnesota from earlier Today, Wednesday, February 24th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

International Falls MN: -24 degrees

Orr MN: -18 degrees

Crane Lake MN: -24 degrees

Cook MN: -22 degrees

Bigfork MN: -20 degrees

Pine River MN: -17 degrees

Babbitt MN: -21 degrees

Cass Lake MN: -19 degrees

Kabetogama MN: -21 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: -23 degrees

Littlefork MN: -23 degrees

Northome MN: -19 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Aside from the South Shore of Lake Superior which saw mostly cloudy skies Today along with lingering snow showers which were heavy at times, mainly across parts of Ashland/Iron Counties...The rest of our area saw plenty of sunshine with high temperatures area-wide in the teens to low 20s. 850 mb temperatures as of 8 PM were sitting right around -12 degrees C. Winds Today were variable or north/east in direction under 12 mph. Surface map as of mid-Evening featured a 1026-1030 mb high pressure ridge stretching from Central Ontario Province south to Minnesota.

This Evening's 500 mb analysis:

Northerly flow aloft was in place across the Upper Midwest This Evening per RUC model analysis. A (528 meter) upper level low was heading south/east out of Indiana per water vapor satellite imagery. An upper level trough was in place from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley north to Central Canada while an upper level ridge builds east out of the Northern Plains. Strong upper level jet stream winds >140 knots were in place over the Southeast U.S. northeast through the Carolinas This Evening per RUC model analysis and this core of strong jet stream winds will help form a massive storm across the Northeast U.S. from Thursday through Saturday with 1-4" of precipitation, 50-65 mph winds, and the potential for 15-40" of snow...

Tonight through Thursday Night:

High pressure ridge will be in control of our local weather through this period. Expect clear to partly cloudy skies from Tonight through Tomorrow Night with lows in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero Tonight with single digits below to above zero readings on tap for Tomorrow Night. Highs Tomorrow should reach the 20s for most areas. Winds will be variable under 12 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

A major storm will continue to affect the Northeast U.S. through the weekend and into early next week which will result in a blocking pattern for our area. There is a possibility that we could see some Atlantic moisture wrap west off that storm and into portions of our area sometime late this weekend or early next week...Sort of similar to what occurred during Valentine's weekend, however, at this time it doesn't appear that will see much more than some extra clouds moving in and possibly some off an flurries during that aforementioned time period. High temperatures for Friday and Saturday will be in the 20s and 30s across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with lows Friday Night and Saturday Night in the single digits below to single digits above zero.

Lake effect snow update:

Winds have veered to an easterly direction This Evening and with cold air still in place we have seen a flare up of lake effect snow showers as of mid-Evening at the head of Lake Superior...Including the immediate Duluth-Superior area. Lingering lake effect snow showers also continued across portions of Ashland and Iron Counties Wisconsin This Evening...These areas could pick up another 1-3" of fluffy snow Tonight while the area from Two Harbors south to Duluth and east to Superior see perhaps a dusting to 1" of snow by dawn.

It appears that we could see a north or east wind re-develop near Lake Superior this weekend and early next week, although right now it appears that temperatures will warm enough by that time to prevent any lake effect snow from developing, this situation will have to be watched though since the lake is wide open and any cooling that takes place could set off some periods of lake effect snow shower activity near Lake Superior late this weekend or early next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Occasional cloudiness with scattered lake effect snow showers and flurries. Snow accumulations less than 1". Low zero to 5 below, a little warmer closer to Lake Superior. Wind variable at 5 to 10 mph.

.Thursday... Lake effect flurries possible early, otherwise mostly sunny. High 22 to 27. Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low zero to 5 above.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 28 to 33.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 2 to 7.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 30 to 35.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 8 to 13.

.Sunday... Partly sunny. High 28 to 33.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 28 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 9 degrees

Tim

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

2/23/2010: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:56 PM CST, Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010

Weather History:

On this date last year the low temperature at Duluth Minnesota was -11 degrees.

...All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota...

*LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING*

A Lake Effect Snow Warning remains in effect until 6 PM CST Wednesday for Ashland and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin. Some Cities included in the warning are: Ashland WI...Odanah WI...Marengo WI...High Bridge WI...Mellen WI...Butternut WI...Hurley WI...Montreal WI...Upson WI...And Gile WI... Lake effect snow showers, heavy at times will continue in the warning area Tonight into Wednesday Morning with snow showers decreasing in coverage and intensity during the Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Evening time frame. Snowfall rates of 1-2" an hour could occur in the heaviest snow showers Tonight and early Wednesday. Total snowfall accumulations of 6-12" are expected in parts of Ashland and Iron Counties.

*LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY*

A Lake Effect Snow Advisory remains in effect until 6 PM CST Wednesday for Bayfield County in Northwest Wisconsin. Some Cities included in the advisory are: Port Wing WI...Cornucopia WI...Bayfield WI...Washburn WI...Iron River WI...Moquah WI...Mason WI...Drummond WI...And Cable WI... Occasional lake effect snow showers will persist across Bayfield County Tonight and Wednesday Morning with snow showers tapering off Wednesday Afternoon. Total snowfall accumulations of 2-6" are expected in the advisory area with the highest amounts in Northern portions of Bayfield County.

Note: Travel along the South Shore of Lake Superior, east of Douglas County Wisconsin will continue to be hazardous Tonight and Tomorrow. Roads will be snow covered and slippery. Visibilities will drop to one half mile at times as the heavier snow showers move through. North winds gusting to 25 mph will also cause areas of blowing and drifting snow Tonight and Wednesday Morning. Use extreme caution if you will be traveling along the South Shore of Lake Superior Tonight and Tomorrow. Make sure to have a winter survival kit in your vehicle.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

An arctic front pushed south/east through our local area Today. A band of light snow and flurries occurred as this boundary pushed through, snow totals were generally 1" or less. Partly to mostly cloudy skies covered our area Today with high temperatures in the teens and 20s with 850 mb temperatures as of 6 PM ranging from -13 to -17 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the north or west at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts. Surface map as of 7 PM featured an arctic front centered in Eastern-Southern Wisconsin with high pressure of 1026 mb centered across the Dakotas.

This Evening's 500 mb analysis:

North-northwest flow aloft was in place across the Upper Midwest This Evening with a potent 500 mb trough digging south/east through the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley region per water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight:

High pressure will remain off to our west with clear-partly cloudy skies covering Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight. Arctic air will be overhead with Overnight lows dropping into the single digits and teens below zero with some minus 20s even possible in Northern Minnesota. North or northwest winds will continue under 20 mph with wind chills ranging from around 15 below to 30 below zero.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

High pressure ridge will extend from Ontario Province south through the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest. Clear to partly cloudy skies will be found across our area during this period with highs Tomorrow in the single digits and teens with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits and teens below zero with some minus 20s possible once again, mainly in Northern Minnesota. Winds during this period will be out of the north under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Our unusually quiet weather pattern as of late will persist right through the weekend and likely into next week as well. The main action zone in terms of stormy weather will be from the Western U.S. through the Southern U.S. and up into the Northeast U.S. Should be mainly dry in our area from Thursday through Saturday, and likely into early next week the way it looks now. High temperatures will moderate by Thursday and Friday with 20s and perhaps some 30s expected. Lows Thursday Night and Friday Night will be in the single digits below to above zero, could see some minus teens, however, for Thursday Night.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Much colder compared to recent nights. Mostly clear. Low 5 below to 10 below. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Wind chills falling into the 20s below zero.

.Wednesday... Mostly sunny. High 12 to 17. Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 3 below to 8 below. Wind variable around 10 mph.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 20 to 25.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low zero to 5 above.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 25 to 30.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 2 to 7.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 30 to 35.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 27 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 8 degrees

Tim

Monday, February 22, 2010

2/22/2010: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 2:56 PM CST, Monday, February 22nd, 2010

...All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota...

*LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING*

A Lake Effect Snow Warning has been issued for Ashland and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin from 12 PM CST Tuesday until 6 PM CST Wednesday.

Some Cities included in the warning are: Ashland WI...Odanah WI...Marengo WI...High Bridge WI...Mellen WI...Butternut WI...Hurley WI...Montreal WI...Upson WI...And Gile WI...

Arctic air moving over Lake Superior combined with a north wind will cause periods of heavy lake effect snow showers in the warning area from Tuesday Afternoon through Wednesday Evening. Total snowfall accumulations of 6-12" are expected with locally higher totals possible. Winds will also increase with gusts as high as 25 mph developing by Tuesday Night and Wednesday, this will cause blowing and drifting snow with visibilities dropping to one half mile or less at times.

*LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY*

A Lake Effect Snow Advisory is in effect from 12 PM CST Tuesday until 6 PM CST Wednesday for Bayfield County in Northwest Wisconsin.

Some Cities included in the advisory are: Port Wing WI...Cornucopia WI...Bayfield WI...Washburn WI...Iron River WI...Moquah WI...Mason WI...Drummond WI...And Cable WI...

Arctic air moving across Lake Superior combined with a north wind will cause lake effect snow showers by Tuesday Afternoon with occasional lake effect snow showers continuing through Wednesday Afternoon. Total snowfall accumulations of 3-7" are possible across Northern Bayfield County with lesser amounts in the Southern part of the County.

Note: Travel along the South Shore of Lake Superior will become difficult from Tuesday Afternoon through Wednesday Evening with periods of heavy snow and blowing snow. Expect snow covered and slippery roads, use extreme caution and make sure to have a winter survival kit in your vehicle if you have travel plans east of Douglas County Wisconsin.

30 Day Outlook for March 2010: Issued by the Climate Prediction Center on February 18th, 2010.

For Duluth:

33% chance for Above Normal Temperatures
Equal Chances for Above Normal, Near Normal, or Below Normal Precipitation

90 Day Outlook for March 2010 thru May 2010: Issued by the Climate Prediction Center on February 18th, 2010.

For Duluth:

40% chance for Above Normal Temperatures
Equal Chances for Above Normal, Near Normal, or Below Normal Precipitation

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Partly to mostly sunny skies were found across Northern and Eastern Minnesota with overcast conditions found in Northwest Wisconsin, there's also been some reports of flurries and light snow Today around the Hayward and Park Falls areas in Wisconsin. High temperatures were in the 20s and 30s Today with 850 mb temperatures as of 2 PM sitting right around -10 degrees C. Winds Today were calm or had a westerly component to them at under 12 mph. Note: Arctic air is pushing south out of Northern Canada Today, temperatures as of Mid-Afternoon were in the single digits in Northeast Montana, while temperatures from zero to -20 degrees were found across portions of Manitoba Province This Afternoon where wind chills ranged from 25 below to 55 below zero! Surface map This Afternoon featured low pressure of 1002 mb in Northern Ohio. High pressure of 1022 mb was centered in Southeast Wyoming with arctic high pressure of 1026 mb builds into Western Saskatchewan Province. Low pressure of 1010 mb was centered in Northwest Ontario Province with a cold front attached to this low extending from Western Ontario Province through Southern Saskatchewan Province.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

North-northwest upper level flow has returned to the Upper Midwest Today thanks in part to the storm system tracking east-northeast out of Ohio. An upper level trough with 30-60 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls covered portions of the Midwest and Upper Midwest, east through the Great Lakes Today while a stronger 500 mb trough associated with 90 meter 12 hour H5 height falls plunges south out of Northern Saskatchewan and Northern Manitoba Provinces. An active sub-tropical jet stream (120-140 knots) covered areas from Northern Mexico and Southern Texas, east-northeast through the Gulf Of Mexico. Low pressure systems will develop and traverse the Southern/Eastern U.S. and Western Atlantic Ocean through next week as long as this powerful jet stream remains in place.

Tonight:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight. Low pressure will remain well to our north while an arctic front pushes south through Northern/Eastern Minnesota Overnight. Expect snow showers and flurries to spread southeast through most of our area during the night. Northwest Wisconsin will be the last to see these snow showers, while Northern areas of Minnesota will see the snow showers first. Accumulations up to 1" are expected by dawn, mainly in Northern and Eastern Minnesota. Lows Tonight will be in the single digits and teens with southwest or northwest winds under 20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Cold front will exit to our south/east during the Morning while a strong upper level trough digs south into the Upper Midwest through this period. Scattered snow showers and flurries will continue area-wide on Tuesday with accumulations of 1" or less expected. Flurries and some snow showers could continue into Tuesday Night across Northwestern Wisconsin with mainly dry conditions in Northern Minnesota. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover the area during this period with highs on Tuesday in the teens and 20s with lows Tuesday Night in the single digits and teens below zero with some single digit above zero readings in Northwest Wisconsin. North or northwest winds are expected at 10-25 mph Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night which will cause wind chills to drop into the teens, 20s, and perhaps 30s below zero by Tomorrow Night.

Extended Forecast:

High pressure will be in control of our weather from Wednesday through the weekend as a blocked up pattern re-develops once again. Main storm track will set-up from the Western U.S. through the Southern U.S. and Western Atlantic, once these storms reach the Mid-Atlantic they will tend to retrograde (move east-northwest). This will keep a N/NW 500 mb flow locked in place for the Upper Midwest through the weekend.

High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Wednesday Night in the single digits and teens below zero, maybe some 20s below in Northern Minnesota. Highs on Thursday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Thursday Night in the single digits below to above zero.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear with increasing clouds by late Evening. Snow showers and flurries developing after 1 AM. Snow accumulations under 1". Low 8 to 13. Wind west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday... Becoming breezy. Considerable cloudiness. Snow showers and flurries at times. Snow accumulations under 1". High 20 to 25. Wind becoming northwest to north at 15 to 25 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Colder. Flurries possible early. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 5 below to 10 below. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Wind chills from 20 below to 30 below.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 11 to 16.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 3 below to 8 below.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 20 to 25.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low zero to 5 above.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 25 to 30.

Normal High Temperature Today 27 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 8 degrees

Tim

Sunday, February 21, 2010

2/21/2010: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:14 PM CST, Sunday, February 21st, 2010

Weather History:

On this date last year, the low temperature was -8 degrees at Duluth Minnesota.

On this date in 2005... 4.6" of snow fell at Duluth Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Mostly sunny skies were found across most of our area Today with the exception to this being in portions of Northern Minnesota where mostly cloudy skies were found. Highs Today were mainly in the 30s with some 20s in Northern locales. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -8 to -11 degrees C. Winds Today were variable under 12 mph. Surface map late Today featured high pressure of 1024 mb centered in the Central Dakotas with a 1022 mb high centered in Northern Ontario Province. Low pressure of 1006 mb was centered in Southwest Missouri.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Southwest flow aloft was in place across the Upper Midwest Today per RUC model analysis. Low pressure continued to organize This Afternoon as it tracks northeast out of the Southern Plains, meanwhile an upper level low/upper trough remained stationary across Northeastern Canada. Another upper level trough was digging south/east out of Northern Canada and this feature will be a player in our weather by Monday Night and Tuesday.

Tonight through Monday Night:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found across our area through this period. Low pressure in Southwest Missouri will track northeast toward the Eastern Great Lakes by Tomorrow Night. Snow associated with this storm will pass well to our south/southeast Tonight and Monday. Looks mainly dry throughout Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight and Tomorrow with some flurries or snow showers spreading southeast into the area by late Monday Night as an arctic front and upper level trough moves in from Northern Canada. Lows Tonight will be in the single digits and teens with some sub-zero readings possible in the traditional cold spots, but this will be dependent on the amount of cloud-cover that will be around Tonight, more clouds will keep temps up while fewer clouds would allow temps to possibly drop a few degrees below zero. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits and teens. Winds will be out of the north, west, or southwest under 20 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Amplified north/northwest flow aloft will develop across the Upper Midwest from Tuesday through the end of the week. A strong 500 mb low/trough will be digging south/east through our area for Tuesday and Wednesday, this system will bring some snow showers and flurries to Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with snow amounts generally around 1", but some 2-3" totals are possible in far Northeast Minnesota and across parts of Northwestern Wisconsin. A colder airmass will invade the Upper Midwest for Tuesday and Wednesday with falling 850 mb temperatures of -12 to -18 degrees C, although the heart of the bitter cold air is expected to remain well to our north. Tuesday's high temperatures will be in the teens and 20s with lows Tuesday Night in the 10 below to 5 above range. Highs on Wednesday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Wednesday Night in the single digits and teens below zero.

Lake Effect Snow Threat:

North winds and colder air moving over Lake Superior should result in the development of some lake effect snow for Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin. Timing of this event looks to be from Tuesday Afternoon through Wednesday Night. Several inches of snow could accumulate in these areas between late Tuesday and early Thursday. Winter weather headlines may be needed for the South Shore of Lake Superior, east of Douglas County Wisconsin between Tuesday and Thursday.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly cloudy. Low 5 to 10. Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Monday... Variable cloudiness. High 29 to 34. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday Night... Mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible late. Snow accumulations under 1". Low 10 to 15. Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 30%.

.Tuesday... Considerable cloudiness. Snow showers and flurries at times. Snow accumulations under 1". High 20 to 25. Chance of snow 60%.

.Tuesday Night... Considerable cloudiness. Flurries possible. Low zero to 5 below.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 15 to 20.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 3 below to 8 below.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 20 to 25.

Normal High Temperature Today 26 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 7 degrees

Tim

Saturday, February 20, 2010

2/20/2010: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:28 PM CST, Saturday, February 20th, 2010

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A weak upper level disturbance has been tracking east through Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today, this feature has brought more clouds to our area compared to the last few days, but little if any snow was occurring as this system passes through due to a dry airmass in place. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies were common around our area Today with high temperatures generally in the upper 20s and 30s with 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranging from -7 to -9 degrees C. Winds Today were calm or variable in direction under 12 mph. Surface map This Afternoon featured high pressure of 1024 mb centered along the Southwest Minnesota-Northwest Iowa state line with high pressure of 1022 mb centered in Southern North Dakota and a 1026 mb high centered in Western Saskatchewan Province. A trough extended from Southwest Wisconsin through Illinois. A few areas of low pressure 1004 mb were found across the Southern Rockies late Today.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Westerly flow aloft was in place over the Upper Midwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery. An upper level low (540 meters) was digging S/E into the Central Rockies This Afternoon with two strengthening jet streaks developing to the south/east of this 500 mb low. One such jet 110-120 knots covered the Baja of California through Western Mexico, the second jet around 80 knots covered areas from Western South Dakota through Southern Minnesota and Northern Iowa...east-southeast through the Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region. An upper level low (528-540 meters) continued to sit and spin in a east-west fashion across Northeastern Canada Today while an upper level trough (540 meters) covered Central Canada and portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.

Tonight through Sunday Night:

A strong winter storm will track out of the Southern Rockies and reach the Southern Plains Tonight before lifting northeast toward Western-Southern parts of Indiana by early Monday Morning. This storm coupled with the aformentioned jet streaks will help develop a snowstorm Sunday and Monday well south/southeast of our local area. Portions of Eastern Kansas, Northern Missouri, Iowa, Southern Wisconsin, and Northcentral Illinois could see 6-12" of snow accumulate from this storm by Monday. Our area will be relatively dry through Tomorrow Night, but some isolated snow flurries could fall from time to time. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are expected during this period with lows Tonight and Tomorrow Night in the single digits and teens, perhaps some sub-zero readings in the traditional cold spots Tonight. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s. Variable or a north-northwest wind under 15 mph will be common during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Amplification of the north/northwest flow will commence during the early to mid part of next week as the winter storm Tomorrow and Monday lifts northeast into the Eastern Great Lakes region by Tuesday while a strong upper level low/upper trough digs south-southeast out of Manitoba Province. A few flurries could fall in parts of our area on Monday, then snow shower/flurry chances will increase a bit from Monday Night through Tuesday Night as the Manitoba trough digs south into the Upper Midwest. Right now it appears that snow accumulations would remain around 1" or less, the exception to this could be along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin where north winds and colder air spreading over Lake Superior could cause heavier lake effect snow showers during the Tuesday Night-Wednesday time period. High temperatures on Monday will be mainly in the 20s and low 30s across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with highs on Tuesday in the teens and 20s. Lows Monday Night will be in the single digits and teens with lows Tuesday Night in the single digits below to above zero.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Variable cloudiness. Low 7 to 12. Wind variable under 10 mph.

.Sunday... Partly sunny. High 28 to 33. Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 10 to 15. Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday... Partly sunny. High 25 to 30.

.Monday Night... Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 10 to 15.

.Tuesday... Mostly cloudy. Occasional snow showers and flurries. Up to 1" of accumulation possible. High 20 to 25. Chance of snow 40%.

.Tuesday Night... Considerable cloudiness. Flurries possible. Low 2 below to 3 above.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 15 to 20.

Normal High Temperature Today 26 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 7 degrees

Tim

Friday, February 19, 2010

2/19/2010: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:17 PM CST, Friday, February 19th, 2010

Weather tidbits:

-Today marks the 3rd day in a row with a high temperature above freezing (32 degrees) at Duluth Minnesota.

-Today marks the 4th day in a row with a high temperature greater than 30 degrees at Duluth Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low clouds developed early This Morning across portions of Koochiching County and Western Itasca County in Northern Minnesota. These clouds burned off by This Afternoon with all of our area seeing mainly sunny skies with another day of mild temperatures. Highs Today were mainly in the 30s, but some locales in Northern Minnesota were in the 20s. 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM were at -7 degrees C. Winds Today were calm or variable in direction under 12 mph. Surface map late Today featured high pressure of 1022 mb centered in Northern Minnesota. Low pressure of 1017 mb was centered in Northeast Kansas with a 1019 mb low centered in Western North Dakota.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Amplified north flow which has dominated our weather the past several days has relaxed somewhat Today. Were seeing a weak westerly flow across the Upper Midwest with a (540 meter) upper level low nearly stationary across Eastern Montana/Western North Dakota per water vapor satellite imagery. Storm parade is about to unleash once again as a series of weather systems track east out of California and the Southwest U.S. across the Plains and into the Eastern U.S. during the next 5-7 days.

Tonight through Saturday Night:

High pressure will continue to control our weather through this period. Areas of low clouds and fog are possible over parts of our area Tonight and Tomorrow Morning and again Tomorrow Night, otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy skies from Tonight through Saturday Night. An upper level disturbance is forecast to push east across Minnesota Saturday and Saturday Evening but this system should come through dry. Lows Tonight and Tomorrow Night will be in the single digits and low teens with some sub-zero readings expected in the traditional cold spots, especially Tonight. Winds during this period will be calm or north-northwest in direction at 5-15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A significant winter storm is forecast to hit areas well to our south/southeast from Sunday through early next week as low pressure tracks from the Southern Plains toward Southern Lower Michigan between Sunday and early Tuesday. Snow associated with this storm will remain well to our southeast for Sunday and Monday. Our area will be dominated by northwest flow with low pressure and a cold front moving south/east through the area around Tuesday of next week. Sunday and Sunday Night look generally dry across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, then we could see some flurries or light snow showers move through during the early to mid part of next week, but nothing significant is expected at this time. High temperatures Sunday and Monday will be in the 20s with a few low 30s possible. Lows Sunday Night and Monday Night will be in the single digits and teens.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear during the Evening, partly to mostly cloudy skies Overnight. Low 3 to 8. Wind calm or variable under 10 mph.

.Saturday... Considerable cloudiness. High 30 to 35. Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 10 to 15.

.Sunday... Partly sunny. High 28 to 33.

.Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 10 to 15.

.Monday... Considerable cloudiness. Flurries possible. High 25 to 30.

.Monday Night... Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 10 to 15.

.Tuesday... Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 20 to 25.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 26 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 7 degrees

Tim

Thursday, February 18, 2010

2/18/2010: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:23 PM CST, Thursday, February 18th, 2010

Fewer sub-zero nights at Duluth this Winter compared to last Winter.

December '09: 9 nights
December '08: 16 nights

January '10: 15 nights
January '09: 21 nights

February '10: 7 nights thru the 17th.
February '09: 9 nights

Winter of 2008-2009 had a total of 46 sub-zero nights at Duluth
Winter of 2009-2010 has had a total of 31 sub-zero nights at Duluth, ending on the 17th of Feb.

Weather tidbits:

-Today marks the 3rd day in a row with a high temperature greater than 30 degrees at Duluth

-Today marks the 2nd day in a row with a high temperature above freezing (32 degrees) at Duluth

-January 23rd-25th, 2010 was the last time to record 3 consecutive days with a high temperature in the 30s at Duluth

Lake Superior ice/water temperature update:

1km visible satellite imagery from Today reveals that most of Lake Superior was free of ice, the exceptions to this include the Twin Ports Harbor area...East along the South Shore of Lake Superior including the Apostle Islands. Isle Royal and the Northwestern Shores of Lake Superior were also covered by ice. As was the case a few weeks ago, it appears that the majority of the ice is affecting shoreline areas with plenty of open water elsewhere over the lake. Water temperatures per Great Lakes Sea Grant Network were generally around 35 degrees f as of Today.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Sunshine continued Today with another day with very pleasant late Winter temperatures. Highs Today were in the 30s with a few locales reaching 40 degrees near Lake Superior, 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from -5 to -7 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the north or west under 15 mph. Surface map This Afternoon featured high pressure of 1022-1024 mb centered to our west, much colder air was found near one of the highs Today in Northwest Minnesota and Eastern North Dakota where some locales were struggling to get out of the single digits above zero This Afternoon, there's also been areas of ice fog over portions of the Red River Valley Today.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

North/northwest flow aloft prevailed across the Upper Midwest Today. (516 meter) 500 mb low continued to sit and spin in Northeastern Canada Today while an upper level trough was in place across the Western U.S. A minor system was pulling east out of the Rockies This Afternoon with a stronger system set to develop this weekend into early next week across the Southern U.S., Ohio Valley, and Eastern U.S.

Tonight through Friday Night:

High pressure will continue to control our weather through this period. Expect mostly clear-partly cloudy skies Tonight and Tomorrow Night with partly cloudy skies on Friday. Could see some patchy fog develop late Tonight and again late Tomorrow Night. Lows Tonight and Tomorrow Night will be in the single digits below to above zero with some locales possibly staying in the low teens above zero with highs on Friday generally in the 30s. Winds will be out of the north or northwest under 15 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Looks like a northwest flow aloft will linger for the Upper Midwest this weekend through early next week with perhaps some sort of a pattern shift then developing the middle or end of next week, although any change in the upper level pattern looks to be fairly brief. No big weather systems are on the horizon for our area, mainly weak systems giving us some flurries or light snow showers at times...One such system is possible early next week, with maybe a somewhat more organized system impacting the Upper Midwest sometime late next week or next weekend per latest ECM forecast. High temperatures for Saturday and Sunday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night in the single digits and teens.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 5 to 10. Wind north to northwest under 12 mph.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 32 to 37. Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 7 to 12. Wind northwest around 12 mph.

.Saturday... Considerable cloudiness. High 27 to 32.

.Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 13 to 18.

.Sunday... Mostly cloudy. High 27 to 32.

.Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 10 to 15.

.Monday... Considerable cloudiness. Flurries possible. High 25 to 30.

Normal High Temperature Today 25 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 6 degrees

Tim

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

2/17/2010: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 6:55 PM CST, Wednesday, February 17th, 2010

Weather tidbits:

-Today's high temperature of 37 degrees at Duluth Minnesota was the warmest high temperature since January 17th, 2010...High temp on that day was 36 degrees.

-Today marks the first time with a high temperature at or above freezing (32 degrees) at Duluth Minnesota since January 25th, 2010.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A very nice late Winter day across our area with high temperatures topping out in the 30s, but some locales made it into the lower 40s especially near Lake Superior! 850 mb temps as of 5 PM ranged from -3 to -5 degrees C. Lingering clouds earlier in the day gave way to mostly sunny skies throughout the area by This Afternoon. Winds Today were out of the north or northwest under 20 mph. Surface map early This Evening featured a 1024 mb high pressure ridge off to our west.

This Evening's 500 mb analysis:

Amplified north/northwest flow aloft continued once again Today across the Upper Midwest. An upper level low (522 meters) was pushing west out of New Brunswick while an upper level trough covered areas from Central Canada through the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Eastern U.S. Another upper level trough was pushing west/south across Western Canada and into the Pacific Northwest-Northern Rockies. The Southern stream jet which has quieted down as of late will become more active during the next week, but all the storms associated with this branch of the jet look to track well to our south/east, typical of an El Nino weather pattern.

Tonight through Thursday Night:

High pressure remains in control of our area's weather. Expect partly to at times mostly cloudy skies with lows Tonight and Tomorrow Night in the single digits and teens with some subzero readings expected in the traditional cold spots. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s, maybe even a few 40 degree readings once again, especially near Lake Superior. Expect north or northwest winds under 20 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Main change during the extended period will be for a potential late season brand of arctic air to move into the Upper Midwest around the early to mid part of next week, other than that there really is nothing to be too concerned about for our area. Over the weekend will see an upper level low pass through the Upper Midwest, could see a few flakes with that system, and then low pressure and an associated cold front look to drop south/east through the Upper Midwest early next week with perhaps some snow showers or flurries occurring with this system and maybe a period of heavier South Shore lake effect snow as well. High temperatures Friday and Saturday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Friday Night and Saturday Night in the single digits and teens.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 3 to 8. Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Mostly sunny. High 31 to 36. Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 5 to 10. Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 28 to 33.

.Friday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 5 to 10.

.Saturday... Considerable cloudiness. High 27 to 32.

.Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 10 to 15.

.Sunday... Mostly cloudy. High 26 to 31.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 25 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 6 degrees

Tim

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

2/16/2010: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:09 PM CST, Tuesday, February 16th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 1999... 5.2" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather

A standing wave developed This Morning and has persisted throughout the day across Western Lake Superior...Duluth Doppler Radar has been showing some moderate to heavy bands of snow within this feature, offshore from Castle Danger northeast to Silver Bay to Little Marais to Taconite Harbor up to Lutsen. Liquid precipitation totals have reached 0.45" under this band with 4-6" snow amounts falling Today according to radar estimates just off the North Shore of Lake Superior. There's also been some snow showers that have affected portions of the South Shore of Lake Superior Today, generally in Iron County Wisconsin where Gile picked up 2.0" of snow Today. Partly to mostly cloudy skies were found across our area Today with high temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s with 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM sitting around -6 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the north or northwest at 10-25 mph. Surface map late Today featured a 1024-1028 mb high pressure ridge extending from the Northern Plains through the Central Plains.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Upper level pattern remains very amplified Today with a general northerly flow aloft continuing across the Upper Midwest. Upper level trough was in place anywhere east of the Rockies Today with a 500 mb low tracking east/northeast across the Western Atlantic. Water vapor satellite imagery continues to show mid and high level moisture streaming west/southwest from the North Atlantic back through Quebec and Ontario Provinces and south into the Great Lakes.

Tonight through Wednesday Night:

High pressure will remain off to our west/southwest through this period. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies Tonight and Tomorrow with partly cloudy skies for Tomorrow Night. Snow showers and flurries will fall at times Tonight and Tomorrow along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin where 1-3" of snow could accumulate by Tomorrow...Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron Counties are most susceptible to seeing some measurable snow Tonight. Areas from Douglas County Wisconsin back through the Twin Ports and up the North Shore of Lake Superior could see some flurries or snow showers develop as well during the night as the standing wave currently over Western Lake Superior tries to push west during the night which could help in spreading some snow showers onshore near Lake Superior in Northeast Minnesota. Snow amounts in these areas would stay under 1". Lows Tonight and Tomorrow Night will be in the single digits and teens, but some single digit below zero readings are possible in Northern Minnesota both nights. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s, similar to what happened Today. Winds during this period will remain out of the north or northwest from 10-25 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Mainly dry conditions are expected in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Thursday and Friday with high temperatures in the 20s and 30s with lows in the single digits and teens, perhaps some sub-zero readings in Northern Minnesota both nights. Looks like we could be affected at least to some extent by another upper level low/500 mb trough that will dig south/east into the Upper Midwest this weekend, no significant snow is expected, but we could see some flurries or light snow showers occur from time to time.

Note: There's still been some hints on some recent GFS model runs for a pattern change beginning next week and possibly into early March, but this is still quite a ways down the road so nothing is certain at this point.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Breezy at times. Considerable clouds. A few flurries or snow showers possible after 10 PM. Low 13 to 18. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Wednesday... Partly sunny. High 28 to 33. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 8 to 13. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 27 to 32.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 5 to 10.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 28 to 33.

.Friday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 5 to 10.

.Saturday... Considerable cloudiness. High 27 to 32.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 25 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 6 degrees

Tim

Monday, February 15, 2010

2/15/2010: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:11 PM CST, Monday, February 15th, 2010

Weather data for Duluth Minnesota through the first 14 days of February. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

-Average monthly temperature: 12.6 degrees
Departure: 0.1 degrees or almost average thru the 14th.

-Precipitation total: 0.40"
Departure: 0.03" below average

-Snowfall total: 8.1"
Departure: 1.7" above average

Weather History:

On this date in 2000... 7.3" of snow fell at Duluth Minnesota.

Here are some updated snow totals from Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Source: NWS Duluth, MN. Heaviest totals in bold and italics.

10 miles Southwest of Cotton MN (St. Louis County) 1.5"

5 miles Northwest of Washburn WI (Bayfield County) 2.4"

5 miles Northwest of Cloquet MN (Carlton County) 3.0"

3 miles West of Phillips WI (Price County) 4.2"

Embarrass MN (St. Louis County) 2.0"

Gile WI (Iron County) 20.5"

3 miles West of Butternut WI (Ashland County) 6.0"

3 miles East of Cornucopia WI (Bayfield County) 3.7"

Ashland WI (Ashland County) 2.0"

South Range WI (Douglas County) 1.5"

Gurney WI (Iron County) 12.5"

21 miles Northwest of Grand Marais MN (Cook County) 4.5"

Two Harbors MN (Lake County) 2.3"

High Bridge WI (Ashland County) 6.0"
12-14" of snow fell in the Northeast part of the County toward Birch Hill and along Highway 2

Hurley WI (Iron County) 13.0"

Poplar WI (Douglas County) 3.0"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 998 mb was centered in Central Quebec Province late Today with low pressure of 1004 mb centered in Southern Ohio. High pressure of 1036 mb was centered in Western North Dakota. For the most part skies were mostly cloudy Today, but there's been some sunny breaks from time to time. Snow showers and flurries continued to push quickly southwest through our area as well Today, but nothing too significant has occurred. High temperatures Today were in the 20s to around 30 degrees with 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM right around -8 degrees C, warm air advection has been pushing southwest across our area This Afternoon, an unusual direction for warm air to be coming from. Winds Today were out of the north or northwest at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

A large upper level trough covered areas from the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains through the Central Plains, most of the Southern U.S. and all of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes per water vapor satellite imagery. Strong upper level low (522 meters) was centered along the Ohio-Kentucky state line This Afternoon per RUC model analysis with a 120 knot jet streak covering the Southeast U.S. toward the Mid-Atlantic or on the south/east side of the H5 low/trough. An area of 120-150 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls were found in portions of Ohio, Kentucky, Virginia, and West Virginia late Today as this latest weather system to affect the Eastern U.S. moves through. An extremely amplified (north-northeast 500 mb flow) was in place in the Upper Midwest Today with a (528 meter) 500 mb low found just east of Hudson Bay Canada

Tonight through Tuesday Night:

Low pressure at the surface and aloft will remain to our northeast through this period with strong high pressure building slowly south-southeast out of the Northern Plains. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with some flurries or snow showers at times, mainly This Evening. Snow amounts of 1" or less can be expected. Mainly dry conditions will then occur from late Tonight through Tuesday Evening across our area, but then some flurries could return to far Northeast Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin by late Tuesday Night. Lows Tonight and Tomorrow Night will be in the single digits and teens with highs Tomorrow in the 20s and low 30s. North or northwest winds will continue during this period at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts.

Extended Forecast:

Weather pattern shows no signs of changing at least through this weekend. Expect a lingering northerly flow aloft to prevail over the Upper Midwest from mid-week through the weekend with the possibility for an upper level low or a disturbance or two to drop south/east through the Upper Midwest. A few flurries could accompany these systems, but nothing significant is anticipated at this time. High temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night in the single digits and teens.

Concerning the lake effect snow threat:

A persistent north wind will continue most of this week along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin. Temperatures look warm enough to prevent any significant lake effect snow events from happening, but there could be some periods of snow showers with generally light accumulations (around 2") from Tonight through at least mid-week and probably beyond for Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron Counties in Wisconsin.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy with a few snow showers or flurries possible through the Evening. Decreasing cloudiness late. Low 9 to 14. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 26 to 31. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 5 to 10. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Partly sunny. High 25 to 30.

.Wednesday Night... Variable cloudiness. Low 7 to 12.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. High 26 to 31.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 5 to 10.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 25 to 30.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 25 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 6 degrees

Tim

Sunday, February 14, 2010

2/15/2010: UPDATED HEADLINE INFORMATION

Issued at 1:41 AM CST, Monday, February 15th, 2010

...All headlines issued by the NWS Duluth, MN...

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect until 6 PM CST This Evening for the following Counties in Northwest Wisconsin: Bayfield...Ashland...And Iron. Some Cities included in the warning are: Port Wing WI...Cornucopia WI...Bayfield WI...Washburn WI...Iron River WI...Moquah WI...Grand View WI...Cable WI...Ashland WI...High Bridge WI...Odanah WI...Butternut WI...Hurley WI...Montreal WI...Upson WI...And Gile WI...

Occasional snow will continue Overnight and Today across Northwest Wisconsin. The snow will be heavy at times as north-northeast winds blowing across Lake Superior help to produce some lake enhanced snowfall.

Snow totals will vary considerably across the warning area with accumulations generally of 4-8", but localized amounts of 10 to 18" are expected...Especially in parts of Iron County.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect until 6 PM CST This Evening for the following Counties: In Wisconsin: Douglas WI...Burnett WI...Washburn WI...Sawyer WI...And Price WI... In Minnesota: Cook MN...And Lake MN... Some Cities included in the advisory are: Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...South Range WI...Patzau WI...Brule WI...Gordon WI...Siren WI...Danbury WI...Grantsburg WI...Minong WI...Spooner WI...Shell Lake WI...Hayward WI...Exeland WI...Park Falls WI...Phillips WI...And Ogema WI...

Occasional snow showers will continue Overnight and Today across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Most of the snow will remain light, but a north-northeast wind coming off Lake Superior could lead to periods of lake enhanced snow especially in Douglas County Wisconsin and in Southern Lake and Southern Cook Counties in Minnesota.

Snowfall totals by late This Afternoon are forecast to range from 2-5" with localized amounts up to 7" possible.

Use extreme caution if you will be traveling across Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast Minnesota the rest of Tonight and on Monday. Roads are snow covered and slippery. Make sure to have a winter survival kit in your vehicle.

Tim

2/14/2010: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:34 PM CST, Sunday, February 14th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 1995... 5.4" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Here are some snowfall reports from Today across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Two Harbors MN-Downtown (Lake County) 3.0"

5 miles Northwest of Two Harbors MN (Lake County) 2.0"

12 miles North of Brule WI (Douglas County) 1.0"

21 miles North-Northwest of Grand Marais MN (Cook County) 1.5"

Hovland MN (Cook County) 2.5"

Duluth MN-Downtown (St. Louis County) 1.6"

Duluth MN-NWS (St. Louis County) 2.0"

Here are some low temperatures from earlier Today across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Crane Lake MN: -11 degrees

Bruno MN: -8 degrees

Embarrass MN: -17 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: -15 degrees

Littlefork MN: -13 degrees

2 miles South of Tower MN: -12 degrees

4 miles West of Clam Lake WI: -9 degrees

Upson WI: -21 degrees

Note: A Lake Effect Snow Advisory continues until 6 PM CST Monday for Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Strong low pressure of 984 mb was centered in Northeast Quebec Province This Afternoon while a high pressure ridge of 1040 mb extended from the Saskatchewan/Manitoba Province line southwest to Eastern Montana. Moisture wrapping around the low in Northeast Canada combined with some weak disturbances pushing southwest into our area caused some snow to break out in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today. There was a band of heavier snow that affected areas along the North Shore of Lake Superior back through the Twin Ports and west through parts of Aitkin and Crow Wing Counties. Visibilities under this heavier snow band were down to one half mile while snowfall rates up to 1" per hour were common. Mostly cloudy skies were found over our area Today with high temperatures in the teens and 20s with 850 mb temperatures as of 5 PM ranging from -9 to -14 degrees C with the coldest temps in Northern Wisconsin. Winds Today were out of the north or northwest at 10-20 mph, but gusts from 20 to 40 mph occurred earlier in the day in far Northeast Minnesota.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Strong H5 low (528 meters) was centered in Western Missouri late This Afternoon with 90-150 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls occurring near this system across Eastern Kansas and Missouri Today per RUC model analysis, this upper low was heading toward the south/east. Another upper level low (522 meters) was centered in Northeastern Canada. A north-northeast flow aloft was in place across the Upper Midwest Today with a broad upper level trough covering Central Canada, Northern Plains, Central Plains, and Northern Rockies per water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight:

Snow showers and flurries will persist throughout our local area Tonight with mostly cloudy skies expected. Additional snowfall accumulations will be around 1", but 1-4" of snow are expected by dawn in Northwest Wisconsin and also in Northeast Minnesota, mainly near Lake Superior. Strong high pressure around 1040 mb will build into the Northern Plains Tonight while strong low pressure around 984 mb remains in Northeast Canada. Pressure difference between these two features will continue to cause gusty north or northwest winds in our area Tonight. 850 mb wind speeds from 30-50 knots will occur Tonight with wind gusts at the surface ranging from 10-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. The gusty winds will lead to some areas of blowing and drifting snow Tonight.

Monday and Monday Night:

Strong high pressure will be centered to our west with low pressure off to our northeast. Additional snow showers and flurries will persist on Monday across our area with a diminishing trend in this activity expected by Monday Night...spreading from northwest to southeast. Up to 1" of additional snow is possible on Monday with another 1-4" of snow expected along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover our area during this period with highs Tomorrow in the teens and 20s with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits and teens. North or northwest winds will remain brisk during this period and will range from 10-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph possible.

Extended Forecast:

Amplified weather pattern will persist across the Upper Midwest from mid-week into next weekend. Flow aloft will generally be out of the north with a couple of upper level lows dropping south/east into the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes regions. Flurries or snow showers could occur at times as these features pass through, but nothing significant is expected at this time. High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be mainly in the 20s with lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night in the single digits and teens.

Expected snowfall totals by Monday Evening:

Koochiching...Itasca...Cass...Crow Wing...And Aitkin Counties Minnesota: Dusting to 2".

Pine...Carlton...St. Louis...Lake...And Cook Counties Minnesota: 1-4", highest totals near Lake Superior where some isolated 4-6" amounts are possible, mainly in the Arrowhead of Minnesota.

Burnett...Washburn...Sawyer...And Price Counties Wisconsin: 1-3"

Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...And Iron Counties Wisconsin: 3-7" with localized totals to 10" in Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron Counties.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Breezy with occasional light snow and flurries. Snow accumulations around 1". Mostly cloudy. Low 10 to 15. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph with occasional gusts to 30 mph which will lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow.

.Monday... Breezy with snow showers and flurries at times. Snow accumulations around 1". Total accumulations from Sunday to Monday 2-4". Considerable cloudiness. High 20 to 25. Wind north to northwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph which will lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow.

.Monday Night... Flurries possible. Breezy. Variable cloudiness. Low 8 to 13. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 22 to 27.

.Tuesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 5 to 10.

.Wednesday... Partly sunny. High 21 to 26.

.Wednesday Night... Variable cloudiness. Low 8 to 13.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. High 23 to 28.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 25 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 5 degrees

Tim

Saturday, February 13, 2010

2/13/2010: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:11 PM CST, Saturday, February 13th, 2010

...All headlines issued by the NWS Duluth, Minnesota...

*LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY*

A Lake Effect Snow Advisory is in effect from Noon CST Sunday until 6 PM CST Monday for the following Counties in Northwest Wisconsin: Bayfield...Ashland...And Iron... Some cities included in the advisory are: Port Wing WI...Cornucopia WI...Bayfield WI...Washburn WI...Iron River WI...Moquah WI...Grand View WI...Mason WI...Ashland WI...Odanah WI...High Bridge WI...Glidden WI...Hurley WI...Montreal WI...Upson WI...And Gile WI...

Scattered snow showers and flurries are possible in the advisory area Tonight into Sunday Morning with snow accumulations generally an inch or less.

Snow showers are forecast to become more numerous and heavy at times from Sunday Afternoon through Monday Afternoon as colder air on north-northeast winds spread across Lake Superior. Total snowfall accumulations from 4-8" are expected in the advisory area by Monday Evening with localized amounts up to 10" possible.

Travel along the South Shore of Lake Superior will become more difficult from Sunday through Monday. Expect snow covered and slippery roads with reduced visibilities to one half mile in the heavier snow showers. In addition to the snow, expect north winds to gust up to 30 mph from Sunday Afternoon into Monday which will lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow. Use extreme caution and make sure to have a winter survival kit in your vehicle if you will be traveling along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin Sunday and Monday.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Clouds have been pushing southwest out of Lake Superior and the Arrowhead of Minnesota Today which has resulted in partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies across our local area Today. High temperatures were in the 20s and lower 30s with 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM right around -8 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the north generally under 15 mph. Surface map as of mid-Afternoon featured low pressure of 1011 mb centered along the Northeast Nebraska-Southeast South Dakota state line with a trough attached to that low extending north through the Eastern Dakotas. A trough has been pushing southwest through Northeast Minnesota Today and this trough as of mid-Afternoon stretched from near Duluth through extreme Northern Wisconsin. Strong high pressure of 1032 mb was centered in Central Saskatchewan Province.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

North-northwest flow aloft was found across the Upper Midwest Today. An upper level low (534 meters) was centered in Central North Dakota and dropping south This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery/RUC model analysis. Another upper level low (522 meters) extended from Central Pennsylvania to Western New York This Afternoon with mid/high level moisture associated with this feature spreading west into Eastern Canada and the Upper Great Lakes late Today. 12 hour 500 mb height falls of 60 meters were occurring Today with the upper low across North Dakota with a broad area of 60-90 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls occurring over the Northeast U.S./Mid-Atlantic/Eastern portions of Canada. The overall upper level pattern is extremely amplified/blocky with no signs of it breaking down anytime soon.

Tonight:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight. Upper level low located in Central North Dakota late Today will continue to drop south Tonight with snow associated with that system remaining well to our southwest through the night. Some flurries or light snow showers may affect parts of Northwest Wisconsin and far Northeast Minnesota Tonight, but any accumulations would be very light (dusting at best). Lows Tonight will be in the single digits below to above zero with some locales holding in the low teens. Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 10-20 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

Strong low pressure (<983 mb) which was over Newfoundland and Labrador Today will head west into Quebec Province during this period while strong high pressure (1034 mb) builds south into the Northern Plains. Moisture pushing west/south off that storm in Northeast Canada will advect southwest across our local area through this period and as a result we should see an increase in snow showers in Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast Minnesota during this period. The snow will likely spread from northeast to southwest during the day Sunday with all of our area seeing at least some light snow and flurries by Sunday Night. The heavier snow is forecast to fall along the South Shore of Lake Superior, including Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron Counties where N/NE winds and lowering 850 mb temps (around -13 degrees C) will lead to some bursts of heavier lake enhanced snowfall by Sunday Afternoon through Sunday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the teens and 20s with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits and teens. Expect an increase in northerly winds throughout our area Sunday and Sunday Night with 850 mb winds increasing to 35-55 knots which will cause surface winds to increase to 15-25 mph with gusts possibly up to 35 mph by Sunday Night especially in Northern Minnesota. The strong winds could produce areas of blowing and drifting snow in parts of our area, especially by Sunday Evening/Overnight.

Expected snowfall amounts for Sunday and Monday:

QPF should remain under 0.10" for all areas except for the South Shore of Lake Superior where 0.25" liquid amounts are forecast by Monday. Snow ratios per latest SREF model will average around 15:1.

Total snowfall accumulations of 1" or less are expected for Koochiching...Itasca...Cass...Crow Wing...And Aitkin Counties in Minnesota.

1-3" of snow are possible for Cook...Lake...St. Louis...Carlton...And Pine Counties in Minnesota.

1-4" of snow are possible in Douglas...Burnett...Washburn...Sawyer...And Price Counties in Wisconsin.

4-8" with localized totals up to 10" are expected for Bayfield...Ashland...And Iron Counties in Wisconsin.

Note: The potential does exist for somewhat higher snow totals in Douglas County Wisconsin, and possibly into Northeast Pine...And Southeastern Carlton County in Minnesota, but right now it appears that the greatest chance for 4"+ snow totals would be east of those areas.

Extended Forecast:

Snow showers and flurries will linger throughout our area on Monday with the snow chances decreasing from northwest to southeast by Monday Night and Tuesday Morning. Some heavier lake enhanced snow shower activity is expected to persist into Monday along the South Shore of Lake Superior with N/NE winds in place, but warm advection will be occurring on Monday from northeast to southwest which should lead to a lesser chance for heavier lake effect snow showers in Northwest Wisconsin by Monday Afternoon or Evening. High temperatures on Monday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Monday Night in the single digits and teens. Strong high pressure off to our west on Monday will head into the Upper Midwest by Tuesday with mainly dry conditions expected in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Tuesday and Tuesday Night. Highs on Tuesday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Tuesday Night mainly in the single digits below to above zero.

Still seeing some hints of a possible pattern shift toward the last few days of February or early March, but until then no significant weather systems are expected for our area.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Variable cloudiness. Low 3 to 8. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday... Turning windy. Mostly cloudy with occasional snow showers and flurries developing, mainly in the Afternoon. High 20 to 25. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph, increasing to 15 to 25 mph. Snow accumulations under 1".

.Sunday Night... Windy with occasional snow showers and flurries. Mostly cloudy. Low 10 to 15. Wind north to northwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph possible. Snow accumulations up to 1".

.Monday... Windy with occasional snow showers and flurries. Mostly cloudy. High 20 to 25. North to northwest wind could occasionally gust to 30 mph. Chance of snow 50%. Snow accumulations up to 1". Total snow accumulations up to 2".

.Monday Night... Flurries possible. Breezy. Variable cloudiness. Low 5 to 10. North to northwest wind could occasionaly gust to 25 mph.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 23 to 28.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 5 to 10.

.Wednesday... Partly sunny. High 21 to 26.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 24 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 5 degrees

Tim