Saturday, January 30, 2010

1/30/2010: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:09 PM CST, Saturday, January 30th, 2010

Here are some low temperatures from earlier Today across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

International Falls MN: -21 degrees

Hibbing MN: -18 degrees

Ely MN: -20 degrees

Orr MN: -18 degrees

Crane Lake MN: -20 degrees

Cook MN: -20 degrees

Eveleth MN: -18 degrees

Bigfork MN: -22 degrees

Grand Rapids MN: -17 degrees

Longville MN: -20 degrees

Pine River MN: -20 degrees

Aitkin MN: -17 degrees

Moose Lake MN: -18 degrees

Cloquet MN: -17 degrees

Ashland WI: -12 degrees

Hayward WI: -19 degrees

Siren WI: -16 degrees

Phillips WI: -15 degrees

8 miles Northeast of Cook MN: -22 degrees

Embarrass MN: -25 degrees

3 miles West of Floodwood MN: -22 degrees

Hinckley MN: -19 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: -24 degrees

Littlefork MN: -21 degrees

Northome MN: -19 degrees

2 miles South of Tower MN: -22 degrees

Note: Low temperature at both the Duluth Airport and Superior Wisconsin was -9 degrees Today.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure centers around 1024 mb were found across the Central Plains and to our southeast in Southern Wisconsin, meanwhile a stronger high of 1032 mb was beginning to build southeast out of Southwest Saskatchewan Province. A cold front was dropping south into Northern Minnesota This Afternoon, but even with this boundary moving in skies stayed mostly sunny Today. High temperatures were in the single digits and teens Today with 850 mb temperatures as of 2 PM ranging from -9 to -13 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the south or west under 15 mph.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Northwesterly flow prevailed across the Upper Midwest Today with upper level ridging covering areas from the Northern Rockies into the Central and Southern Plains while another upper level trough covered portions of the Pacific Northwest This Afternoon per RUC model analysis.

Tonight through Sunday Night:

Cold front in Northern Minnesota This Afternoon will drop south through our entire area Tonight with high pressure building back into our area behind this front from late Tonight through Tomorrow Night. Mainly dry conditions will persist in our area during this period with some lake effect snow showers possibly developing in Ashland and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin by Sunday and Sunday Night, snowfall amounts of 1-3" are possible in those areas by late Tomorrow Night. Lows Tonight will be in the single digits below to above zero with some teens below in Western-Northern areas. Highs Tomorrow will be in the single digits to low teens with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero. Winds from the south or west will become northwest at 10-20 mph Tonight with northwesterly winds continuing Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A rather tranquil weather pattern is expected to continue for our area next week with no organized systems expected at this time. We could, however, see a few minor disturbances pass through the Upper Midwest which could bring some flurries or snow showers to parts of our area sometime during the middle or end of next week, but right now these impulses look fairly weak.

High temperatures on Monday will be in the single digits and teens with mainly teens expected on Tuesday. Lows Monday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero with lows Tuesday Night in the single digits below to above zero.

A moderating trend in temperatures is expected in the Upper Midwest later next week with highs possibly climbing toward 30 degrees toward next Friday or next Saturday.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear with some increase in clouds possible during the night. Low 1 below to 6 below. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph becoming northwest.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 5 to 10. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 8 below to 13 below. Wind northwest under 15 mph.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 8 to 13.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 3 below to 8 below.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 13 to 18.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low zero to 5 above.

.Wednesday... Mostly cloudy. High 15 to 20.

Normal High Temperature Today 20 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today zero degrees

Tim

Friday, January 29, 2010

1/29/2010: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:39 PM CST, Friday, January 29th, 2010

Here are some low temperatures from earlier Today around Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

International Falls MN: -22 degrees

Brainerd MN: -16 degrees

Hibbing MN: -20 degrees

Two Harbors MN: -15 degrees

Silver Bay MN: -17 degrees

Ely MN: -18 degrees

Orr MN: -18 degrees

Crane Lake MN: -20 degrees

Cook MN: -24 degrees

Bigfork MN: -22 degrees

Longville MN: -22 degrees

Pine River MN: -20 degrees

Moose Lake MN: -18 degrees

Cloquet MN: -17 degrees

Hayward WI: -22 degrees

Siren WI: -18 degrees

Phillips WI: -18 degrees

Bruno MN: -22 degrees

8 miles Northeast of Cook MN: -20 degrees

Cass Lake MN: -16 degrees

Embarrass MN: -25 degrees

3 miles West of Floodwood MN: -23 degrees

Hinckley MN: -19 degrees

Kabetogama MN: -20 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: -23 degrees

Littlefork MN: -21 degrees

Northome MN: -19 degrees

3 miles South of Ashland WI: -11 degrees

Butternut WI: -18 degrees

4 miles West of Clam Lake WI: -23 degrees

Upson WI: -22 degrees

Note: Low Temperature at the Duluth Airport was -15 degrees Today.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Arctic high pressure of 1032 mb was centered in Southern Wisconsin This Afternoon while a 1026 mb high was centered in Southwest Saskatchewan Province. High pressure of 1020 mb was centered in Southwest South Dakota with a 1026 mb high centered in Northwest Ontario Province. Needless to say high pressure was in control of our weather Today with mainly sunny skies and cold temperatures. Highs Today were in the single digits and low teens with 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranging from -10 to -15 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the south or west under 15 mph.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Northwest flow aloft prevailed across the Upper Midwest Today with a powerful upper level jet of 130-180 knots extending from the Southern and Eastern Great Lakes into parts of the Northeast U.S. Strong upper level low (552 meters) was centered over the Northern Texas/Southern Oklahoma area This Afternoon per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery with movement toward the east-northeast. This H5 low across the Southern Plains is part of a larger winter storm which is affecting many areas from Oklahoma and Arkansas east through Kentucky, Tennessee, and eventually into the Carolinas and Virginia.

Tonight through Saturday Night:

High pressure will remain in control of our weather through this period. Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with partly to mostly cloudy skies Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night. Bitterly cold temperatures will occur once again Tonight with lows falling into the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero. Highs Tomorrow will be in the single digits and teens with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits and teens below zero. The possibility does exist for a few flurries in parts of our area Tomorrow or Tomorrow Night as a trough swings south/east into Northern Minnesota, this chance looks quite low, however. Winds during this period will have a westerly component to them under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Weather pattern continues to look fairly quiet for Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Sunday into Monday, could see a period of lake effect snow showers affect Ashland and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin during this period, but right now this event looks quite light. A reinforcing shot of arctic air will build south/east out of Central Canada late this weekend and early next week with the southwestern flank of that cold pool pushing into our area which will result in more subzero nighttime lows for Sunday Night and Monday Night. A weak disturbance appears that it will pass south/southeast of our local area from late Monday into Tuesday, this system could bring some flurries into Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin early next week, but nothing major is expected.

High temps will be in the single digits and teens Sunday and Monday with lows Sunday Night and Monday Night in the single digits and teens below zero, but some of the traditional cold spots could drop into the 20s below zero.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Very cold. Mostly clear. Low 8 below to 13 below. Wind west under 15 mph.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 10 to 15. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 1 below to 6 below. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 5 to 10.

.Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 10 below to 15 below.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 8 to 13.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 3 below to 8 below.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 13 to 18.

Normal High Temperature Today 20 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today zero degrees

Tim

Thursday, January 28, 2010

1/28/2010: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 8:03 PM CST, Thursday, January 28th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date last year, the low temperature at Duluth was -16 degrees.

30 day outlook for February 2010. Issued by the Climate Prediction Center on January 21st, 2010.

For Duluth:

33% chance for Above Normal Temperatures
Equal Chances for Above Normal, Normal, or Below Normal Precipitation

90 day outlook for February 2010 through April 2010. Issued by the Climate Prediction Center on January 21st, 2010.

For Duluth:

40% chance for Above Normal Temperatures
Equal Chances for Above Normal, Normal, or Below Normal Precipitation

Arctic air has returned to Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Here are some low temperatures that occurred earlier Today from around the area. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Hibbing MN: -11 degrees

Two Harbors MN: -18 degrees

Silver Bay MN: -13 degrees

Grand Marais MN: -17 degrees

Orr MN: -17 degrees

Crane Lake MN: -20 degrees

Cloquet MN: -13 degrees

Hayward WI: -8 degrees

Siren WI: -10 degrees

Littlefork MN: -20 degrees

Northome MN: -16 degrees

2 miles South of Tower MN: -17 degrees

Embarrass MN: -20 degrees

Butternut WI: -12 degrees

Note: Morning low at the Duluth Airport was -13 degrees. Sky Harbor dropped to -6 degrees This Morning while Superior Wisconsin had a low temperature of -8 degrees.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Arctic high pressure of 1036 mb was centered in Northwest Iowa early This Evening with a 1032 mb high centered in Southeastern Saskatchewan Province. This ridge of high pressure resulted in partly cloudy to sunny skies across our local area Today with very cold daytime highs only in the single digits above zero. 850 mb temperatures as of 7 PM ranged from -18 to -25 degrees C with the heart of the coldest air now found over Eastern Ontario Province where -26 to -30 degree C H85 temps were found early This Evening. Winds Today were out of the north or west under 20 mph. The arctic air in place combined with a northwest wind moving across Lake Superior resulted in the formation of some lake effect snow showers Today along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin with new snow accumulations of 1-4" Today in parts of Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron Counties.

This Evening's 500 mb analysis:

Northwest flow aloft was in place across the Upper Midwest This Evening per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery. Polar vortex (504 meters) has moved east into the Eastern Ontario-Western Quebec Province area This Evening with a powerful upper level jet of 120-170 knots extending from Southern Minnesota through the Central and Southern Great Lakes into the Upper Ohio Valley region.

Tonight through Friday Night:

Arctic high pressure will remain in control of our weather through this period. Expect generally partly cloudy skies with very cold temperatures persisting. Lows Tonight and Friday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero with highs Tomorrow in the single digits to low teens above zero. Winds will be out of the north or west under 20 mph during this period. With the arctic air in place and a W/NW wind coming off Lake Superior the potential exists for a few snow showers through Tomorrow Night, mainly impacting Ashland and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin, snow amounts should remain less than 2" though.

Extended Forecast:

Dry weather will continue across our area this weekend with one high moving away while a new area of high pressure builds in from the north. There will be another surge of arctic air later this weekend that will try to advect southwest/south into our area, although right now it looks like the brunt of that arctic air will remain off to our northeast. High temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night in the single digits and teens below zero.

A minor snow event is still possible for parts of Northwest Wisconsin and Northern Minnesota early next week, but the forecast models Today have trended slightly more to the south and a tad drier with this system, so all in all it looks like a fairly dry weather pattern for our area through the weekend, and perhaps even into early next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Bitterly cold. Mostly clear. Low 13 below to 18 below, a little warmer in Downtown Duluth. Wind west under 15 mph. Wind chills approaching 25 below zero.

.Friday... Very cold. Mostly sunny. High 5 to 10. Wind west to northwest around 15 mph.

.Friday Night... Very cold. Mostly clear. Low 5 below to 10 below. Wind west to northwest under 15 mph.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 8 to 13.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 2 below to 7 below.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 9 to 14.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Monday... Variable cloudiness. Snow showers or flurries possible mainly late. High 11 to 16. Chance of snow 20%.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 19 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow zero degrees

Tim

1/28/2010: Lake Superior Photos

Decided to take a short 15-20 minute drive to Park Point to view Lake Superior This Afternoon on what was a very cold arctic day in Duluth Minnesota, lots of ice/snow hugging the immediate shortline, but quite a bit of open water remains on the Southwestern shore of Lake Superior, usually if were going to see it 100% ice covered, it would've happened by now. Could the lack of ice spell a milder Spring in Duluth? Time will tell. Enjoy the pics!



























Wednesday, January 27, 2010

1/28/10: LAKE SNOW WARNING INFORMATION

Issued at 1:39 AM CST, Thursday, January 28th, 2010

...All headlines issued by the NWS Duluth, MN...

*LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING*

A Lake Effect Snow Warning is in effect until 4 PM CST Today for the following Counties in Northwestern Wisconsin: Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...And Iron WI...

Some cities included in the warning are: Port Wing WI...Cornucopia WI...Bayfield WI...Washburn WI...Iron River WI...Moquah WI...Ashland WI...Odanah WI...High Bridge WI...Upson WI...Hurley WI...And Montreal WI...

Arctic air in place along with northwest winds coming off Lake Superior will result in locally very heavy lake effect snow showers through late This Afternoon in the warning area. Hourly snowfall rates could approach 2"! Total snowfall accumulations by late Today are expected to range from 6-12" with locally higher totals possible.

The combination of heavy falling and blowing snow will produce extremely difficult if not impossible driving conditions in the warning area. Visibilities will lower to less than one quarter mile at times.

Tim

1/26/10: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:56 PM CST, Wednesday, January 27th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date last year, the low temperature at Duluth was -16 degrees.

...All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota...

*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*

A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect from 9 PM CST Tonight until Noon CST Thursday for the following Counties...

In Minnesota:

Koochiching...Itasca...Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...Carlton...St. Louis...Lake...And Cook...

In Wisconsin:

Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...And Iron...

Some cities included in the advisory:

International Falls MN...Northome MN...Bigfork MN...Grand Rapids MN...Cass Lake MN...Walker MN...Pillager MN...Brainerd MN...Aitkin MN...Hill City MN...McGregor MN...Moose Lake MN...Cloquet MN...Duluth MN...Hibbing MN...Ely MN...Crane Lake MN...Two Harbors MN...Whyte MN...Forest Center MN...Silver Bay MN...Grand Marais MN...Grand Portage MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...And Hurley WI...

Impacts:

Expect wind chills to fall into the 20 to 35 below zero range across the advisory area from late Tonight through Thursday Morning with some locales in Northern Minnesota possibly dropping to 40 below! Frostbite and hypothermia can occur in 10 to 20 minutes time when wind chills drop under 30 below and in 15 to 30 minutes time when wind chills drop into 25 below to 35 below range.

Make sure to cover all exposed skin if you will be venturing outdoors Tonight and Thursday Morning.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Arctic high pressure of 1034 mb was centered in Southern Alberta Province This Afternoon with a few weak troughs passing south/east through the Upper Midwest Today which led to some clouds and a few snow showers and flurries across our local area. High temperatures Today were in the single digits to low teens with 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranging from -20 to -25 degrees C! Even colder H85 temps of -26 to -30 degrees C were lurking to our north in Central Canada late Today. Winds were out of the north or west Today around 20 mph or less with Afternoon wind chills mainly in the single digits and teens below zero.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Polar vortex (498 meters) with H5 temps of -40 to -44 degrees C was located in Central/Northern Ontario Province This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis. The upper level low was heading toward the south/east late Today. Northwest flow aloft with a broad upper level trough covered the area from Westcentral Canada through the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Central Canada Today.

Tonight through Thursday Night:

Arctic high pressure will settle into the Northern Plains during this period with a northwest flow and cold advection occurring on the east side of this high across the Upper Midwest. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies through this period with some flurries or light snow showers at times, mainly Tonight and Thursday as the polar vortex to our north continues to send some weak impulses through our area. Lows Tonight and Tomorrow Night will be in the single digits and teens below zero with some 20s below in the traditional cold spots in Northern Minnesota, especially for Thursday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero. Expect north or west winds under 20 mph during this period which will result in wind chills of 20 below to 40 below Tonight and Thursday Morning and 10 below to 20 below during the Afternoon.

Lake Effect Snow Update:

Northwest winds and arctic air moving over Lake Superior will cause lake effect snow showers at times Friday for Ashland and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin...Snow accumulations from 2-5" are possible in these areas by Friday with locally higher amounts possible, especially in the Gile, Hurley, and Montreal areas in Iron County. Some lake effect snow showers could also affect portions of Bayfield County in Wisconsin Tonight, but the more significant activity is expected to remain off to the east of that area.

Extended Forecast:

Arctic high pressure will continue to be in control of our weather for Friday and Friday Night with daytime highs mainly in the single digits while nighttime lows drop into the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero. High pressure will shift to our southeast this weekend which should result in a slight warm-up across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Highs on Saturday should get into the teens with lows Saturday Night ranging from around 10 below to the single digits above zero.

Minor snow system is still possible for our area early next week, although the models offer some different solutions as to what will occur. One possibility is for the low to pass south of our area with an E/NE wind developing and this combined with cold air in place could lead to some lake effect snow near Lake Superior early next week, if that occurs...Then we could see more than a minor snow event for areas near Lake Superior.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*WIND CHILL ADVISORY* IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM CST TONIGHT UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY...

.Tonight... Bitterly cold with dangerous wind chills. Areas of blowing snow. Variable cloudiness with light snow showers and flurries at times. Little accumulation expected. Low 8 below to 13 below, a little warmer closer to Lake Superior. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Wind chills from 20 below to 35 below zero.

.Thursday... Very cold. Partly sunny. Flurries possible. High 1 to 6. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Morning wind chills from 20 below to 35 below zero. Afternoon wind chills of 10 below to 20 below zero.

.Thursday Night... Bitterly cold. Partly cloudy. Low 10 below to 15 below. Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 2 to 7.

.Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 8 to 13.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 2 below to 7 below.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 9 to 14.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 19 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow zero degrees

Tim

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

1/26/2010: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:21 PM CST, Tuesday, January 26th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date last year, the low temperature at the Duluth Airport was -17 degrees.

On this date in 2004... 18.2" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Some updated snowfall totals from January 23rd thru 25th, 2010.

Duluth MN NWS (St. Louis County) 13.7"
4.6" fell on the 25th. 7.8" fell on the 24th. 1.3" fell on the 23rd.

13 miles South of Superior WI at Pattison State Park WI (Douglas County) 15.7"

South Range WI (Douglas County) 12.0"

7 miles East-Southeast of Superior WI at Amnicon River Valley: 5.5"

Note: Much below normal precipitation and snowfall was occurring at Duluth up until this past weekend...Now we have a precipitation surplus for January, but still running a little below normal in the snowfall department for the month of January.

Thru the 25th: 1.10" of precipitation has fallen at Duluth
Departure: 0.17" above normal

Thru the 25th: 14.6" of snow has fallen at Duluth
Departure: 1.6" below normal

From December 1st, 2009 thru January 25th, 2010:

3.99" of precipitation has fallen at Duluth
Departure: 2.12" above normal

48.0" of snow has fallen at Duluth
Departure: 16.9" above normal

Peak wind gusts around the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains from the blizzard that occurred on Monday...Source: Minnesota Public Radio.

Morris MN: 58 mph

Moorhead MN: 55 mph

Grand Forks ND: 52 mph

Fargo ND: 52 mph

Fergus Falls MN: 52 mph

Elbow Lake MN: 51 mph

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure of 1028 mb was centered in Southern Alberta Province late This Afternoon with a 1022 mb ridge of high pressure covering the Plains. Low pressure of 1002 mb was centered in Northern Ontario Province with a cold front attached to that low located in Central Canada. Much colder temperatures were found across our local area Today with a northwest wind at 5-15 mph with some higher gusts helping to usher in these colder temperatures. Highs Today were in the single digits with some teens over parts of Northwest Wisconsin. 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from -14 to -19 degrees C across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin while an area of -20 to -24 degree C H85 temps were lurking to our north This Afternoon and set to drop south into the Upper Midwest by Wednesday. Skies across our area were partly to mostly cloudy Today.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Polar vortex (504 meters) was dropping south out of Northern Manitoba Province This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery while a broad upper level trough and northwest flow aloft covered areas from Westcentral Canada through the Northern Plains and Central Canada. 12 hour 500 mb height falls of 60-90 meters were occurring Today per RUC model analysis across Central Canada near the upper level low/trough.

Tonight:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover our area Tonight with a cold front heading south into Northern Minnesota during the night. A few flurries are possible mainly in Northern Minnesota later Tonight. Lows will be in the single digits below to above zero with winds out of the west under 20 mph. Wind chills Tonight will range from around 5 below to 20 below zero.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Cold front will exit our local area by Wednesday Afternoon with an upper level low I.E.: Polar Vortex heading into Central Ontario Province. 850 mb temperatures will crash into the minus 20s below zero during this period as arctic air moves in. Highs Tomorrow will be in the single digits and low teens with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits and teens below zero. Winds during this period will be out of the north or northwest at 10-20 mph. Wind chills will drop into the teens and 20s below zero by Wednesday Night.

Extended Forecast:

Arctic high pressure will be in control of our weather as it slides south/east out of the Northern Plains later this week. Mainly dry conditions are forecast for all of Northern Minnesota and most of Northwest Wisconsin from Thursday through Saturday. Highs Thursday and Friday will be in the single digits below to above zero with lows Thursday Night and Friday Night in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero.

Still appears that temperatures will moderate this weekend into early next week with a weak low pressure system possibly bringing some light snow to our area sometime between Sunday and early Tuesday.

Lake Effect Snow Update:

A period of lake effect snow is expected to develop on Wednesday and could linger at times through Friday along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin. Ashland and Iron Counties are at risk the most from this lake effect snow, but some snow shower activity could spread as far west as Bayfield and perhaps Douglas Counties on Wednesday. Several inches of snow is expected from Wednesday through Friday, mainly for Ashland and Iron Counties.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Variable cloudiness. Low 4 below to 1 above. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph. Wind chills from 10 below to 20 below.

.Wednesday... Variable cloudiness. Flurries possible. High 5 to 10. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 5 below to 10 below. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 1 to 6.

.Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 8 below to 13 below.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 2 to 7.

.Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 8 to 13.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 19 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow -1 degree

Tim

Monday, January 25, 2010

1/25/2010: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:41 PM CST, Monday, January 25th, 2010

Note: MNDOT reports ICE and SNOW covered roads north of Highway 2 between Duluth Minnesota and Grand Rapids Minnesota and has advised people against traveling in these areas due to the poor road conditions.

Warm temps:

Unseasonably warm temperatures continued at Duluth, MN from the 19th thru the 24th of January...Here are the daily high and low temperatures during that period and the departure from normal. Note: Look at how much above normal we were for the Overnight lows during the 22nd thru 24th.

High temperatures:

1/19/10: 23 degrees
+5 degrees above average

1/20/10: 24 degrees
+6 degrees above average

1/21/10: 29 degrees
+11 degrees above average

1/22/10: 31 degrees
+13 degrees above average

1/23/10: 33 degrees
+15 degrees above average

1/24/10: 33 degrees
+15 degrees above average

Low Temperatures:

1/19/10: 19 degrees
+21 degrees above average

1/20/10: 17 degrees
+19 degrees above average

1/21/10: 15 degrees
+16 degrees above average

1/22/10: 27 degrees
+28 degrees above average

1/23/10: 29 degrees
+30 degrees above average

1/24/10: 32 degrees
+33 degrees above average

Thru the 24th: Monthly average temperature at Duluth: 13.0 degrees which is 4.9 degrees above average.

Here are some snowfall totals in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from the winter storm that affected the region this past weekend, January 23rd-24th...Additional snow continues to fall Tonight in some of these areas which will add to the totals that are listed below.

4 miles Northeast of Patzau WI (Douglas County) 10.8"

Iron Junction MN (St. Louis County) 6.0"

8 miles North-Northwest of Lutsen MN (Cook County) 12.0"

Babbitt MN (St. Louis County) 11.5"

3 miles East of Orr MN (St. Louis County) 7.3"

Embarrass MN (St. Louis County) 8.0"

Cotton MN (St. Louis County) 6.0"

International Falls (Koochiching County) 7.7"

Culver MN (St. Louis County) 6.0"

Silver Bay MN (Lake County) 4.8"

4 miles Southeast of Finland MN (Lake County) 8.8"

5 miles Northwest of Washburn WI (Bayfield County) 4.1"

4 miles West of Clam Lake WI (Burnett County) 4.0"

Oulu WI (Bayfield County) 8.5"

Adolph MN (St. Louis County) 14.0"

Maple WI (Douglas County) 6.5"

20 miles West-Northwest of Grand Marais MN (Cook County) 19.0"

Ely MN (St. Louis County) 9.9"

In the Duluth area:

NWS total thru 6 AM Today: 9.9"

Duluth Heights area: 7.9" ending at 10 PM Sunday

Snow totals varied below the hill in Duluth, but in general anywhere from 1-4" of snow fell closer to Lake Superior.

2 day Precipitation totals at Duluth, MN (NWS)

1/23/10: 0.25"
1/24/10: 0.65"
2 day precipitation total: 0.90"

2 day Snowfall totals at Duluth, MN. (NWS)

1/23/10: 1.3"
1/24/10: 7.8"
2 day snowfall total: 9.1"

Note: Following headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota...

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 2 AM CST Tuesday Morning for Douglas County Wisconsin...This includes the cities of Maple WI...South Range WI...Patzau WI...Solon Springs WI...Poplar WI...And Brule WI...

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 6 AM CST Tuesday for the following Counties in Northwest Wisconsin: Bayfield WI...And Ashland WI... Some cities included in the warning are: Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Red Cliff WI...Cornucopia WI...Iron River WI...Washburn WI...Moquah WI...Mason WI...Grand View WI...Ashland WI...Odanah WI...And High Bridge WI...

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 12 PM CST Tuesday for Iron County in Northwest Wisconsin...This includes the cities of Hurley...Montreal...And Upson.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect until 9 AM CST Tuesday for the following Counties in Minnesota: Koochiching MN...Itasca MN...St. Louis MN...Carlton MN...Lake MN...And Cook MN... Some cities included in the advisory: International Falls MN...Bigfork MN...Grand Rapids MN...Duluth MN...Hibbing MN...Ely MN...Crane Lake MN...Cloquet MN...Moose Lake MN...Two Harbors MN...Silver Bay MN...Murphy City MN...Whyte MN...Lutsen MN...Grand Marais MN...And Grand Portage MN...

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until 2 AM CST Tuesday for the following Counties...In Minnesota: Cass MN...Crow Wing MN...Aitkin MN...And Pine MN... In Wisconsin: Burnett WI...Washburn WI...Sawyer WI...And Price WI... Some cities included in the advisory: Cass Lake MN...Walker MN...Remer MN...Brainerd MN...Aitkin MN...Hill City MN...McGregor MN...Hinckley MN...Pine City MN...Grantsburg WI...Siren WI...Spooner WI...Minong WI...Hayward WI...Park Falls WI...And Phillips WI...

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Deep low pressure (980 mb) was moving toward the Southern Hudson Bay/Western Quebec area late This Afternoon while high pressure (1028 mb) was building southeast out of Western Canada. Increasing northwest to north winds were found across our area Today between the deep low to our northeast and strong high well off to our west. Cold advection has been ongoing Today with 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranging from -7 to -13 degrees C from east to west across our area. Snow continued as well Today thanks to some moisture wrapping around the low. Heavier snow was found across parts of Northwest Wisconsin, closer to Lake Superior...Also extending southwest toward Southeastern Carlton County MN...Near Holyoke. High temps which were in the 20s and 30s after Midnight last night have been falling into the teens and 20s Today with gusty north or northwest winds from 15-30 mph along with a few higher gusts which has produced areas of blowing and drifting snow Today. Late Afternoon wind chills across our local area generally ranged from -10 to 10 degrees above zero.

Same storm affecting our weather Today has pretty much shut down Western Minnesota and parts of the Dakotas due to a raging blizzard Today. Travel is not advised in portions of these areas.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Large upper level trough (522 meters) covered all of the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Central Plains This Afternoon per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery. N-NW upper level flow was in place across the Upper Midwest Today. Strong area of 120-180 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls have now shifted into the Eastern U.S. This Afternoon out ahead of the deep trough across our area.

Tonight:

Temperatures will continue to drop and so will the wind chills. Strong northwest to north winds from 15-35 mph will persist through the night due to a tight pressure gradient between the low in Eastern Canada and high pressure building into the Northern Rockies. Low temperatures will fall into the single digits below to above zero Tonight across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with wind chills ranging from 10 below to as low as 30 below zero! Expect lake effect snow showers, heavy at times to continue Tonight along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin, affecting Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...And Iron Counties...Additional snowfall amounts from 3-8" are expected across those areas by dawn. Elsewhere, expect snow showers and flurries to decrease from north to south with additional snow accumulations under 2". Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies Tonight with areas of blowing and drifting snow through the night due to the strong winds in place.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

High pressure will be in control of our weather during this period with colder temperatures compared to what we had during earlier this month. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with lingering lake effect snow showers coming to an end on Tuesday along the South Shore of Lake Superior, could see an additional 1-3" of lake effect snow Tomorrow...Mainly in Ashland and Iron Counties. Highs Tomorrow will be in the single digits and teens with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits below to above zero. Winds will be out of the west at 10-25 mph. Wind chills will generally be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero at times during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Coldest air this week will occur Wednesday-Thursday as 850 mb temps drop well into the minus 20s below zero! A polar vortex will be centered in Central Canada around mid-week with a northerly flow aloft covering the Upper Midwest. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be in the single digits below to above zero across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with lows in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero for Wednesday Night and Thursday Night.

Could see another flare up of lake effect snow showers during the Wednesday/Thursday period along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin...Right now this threat is favoring Ashland and Iron Counties...Possibly as far west as Bayfield County.

Looks like will see a rise in temperatures come this weekend into early next week with a possible minor snow system possibly affecting our area sometime late this weekend or early next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY* UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY...

.Tonight... Windy and colder. Areas of blowing and drifting snow. Mostly cloudy with snow showers and flurries coming to an end Overnight. Additional Evening accumulations 1" or less. Low 3 below to 2 above, but a little warmer closer to Lake Superior. Wind northwest to north at 15 to 30 mph. Wind chills from 15 below to 30 below.

.Tuesday... Breezy. Partly cloudy. High 8 to 13. Wind west at 15 to 25 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Variable cloudiness. Low 2 below to 7 below. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Partly sunny. High 5 to 10.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 7 below to 12 below.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 1 to 6.

.Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 8 below to 13 below.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 2 to 7.

Normal High Temperature Today 19 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today -1 degree

Tim

Sunday, January 24, 2010

1/24/2010: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:41 PM CST, Sunday, January 24th, 2010

...WINTER STORM CONTINUES INTO MONDAY, INCREASING WINDS, AND ARCTIC AIR RETURNS THIS WEEK...

Note: Through 3 PM CST... The official snowfall total at the NWS in Duluth, MN is 5.7"...Superior Wisconsin has picked up 3.0" of snow Today.

Weather History:

On this date last year, the low temperature at the Duluth Airport was -16 degrees.

...All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota...

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

A Winter Storm Warning continues until 4 PM CST Monday for the following Counties in Northern and Northeast Minnesota: Koochiching MN...Itasca MN...St. Louis MN...Carlton MN...Lake MN...And Cook MN... Some cities included in the warning are: International Falls MN...Bigfork MN...Grand Rapids MN...Duluth MN...Hibbing MN...Ely MN...Crane Lake MN...Two Harbors MN...Lutsen MN...Silver Bay MN...Isabella MN...Tofte MN...Grand Marais MN...And Grand Portage MN...

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect until 12 AM CST Monday Night for Douglas County in Northwest Wisconsin...Some cities included in the warning are: Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Poplar WI...And South Range WI...

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect until 6 AM CST Tuesday for Bayfield and Ashland Counties in Northwest Wisconsin. Some cities included in the warning are: Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Mellen WI...And High Bridge WI...

*Winter Storm Warning*

A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect until 12 PM CST Tuesday for Iron County in Northwest Wisconsin...This includes the cities of Hurley WI...And Montreal WI...

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until 4 PM CST Monday for the following Counties...Cass MN...Crow Wing MN...Aitkin MN...Pine MN...Burnett WI...Washburn WI...Sawyer WI...And Price WI... Some cities included in the advisory are: Cass Lake MN...Walker MN...Pillager MN...Brainerd MN...Aitkin MN...Hill City MN...Hinckley MN...Pine City MN...Siren WI...Grantsburg WI...Spooner WI...Minong WI...Hayward WI...Park Falls WI...And Phillips WI...

Here are some snowfall totals around Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Today. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

3 miles East of Orr MN (St. Louis County) 1.7"

15 miles North of Grand Marais MN (Cook County) 5.5"

5 miles Northwest of Two Harbors MN (Lake County) 3.3"

Babbitt MN (St. Louis County) 6.5"

Bayfield WI (Bayfield County) 1.9"

Pence WI (Iron County) 3.0"

Hayward WI (Sawyer County) 2.4"

Here are some of the lower barometric pressure readings as of 4 PM Today...

Duluth MN: 29.05"

Ely MN: 29.04"

Two Harbors MN: 29.03"

Silver Bay MN: 29.02"

Grand Marais MN: 29.04"

Grand Marais MN (Airport) 29.01"

Eagle River WI: 28.99"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

As of 4 PM CST...Strong low pressure of 984 mb was centered near the Apostle Islands (South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin) wet snow, heavy at times was occurring on the northwest side of this low Today in Northeastern Minnesota with locations closer to Lake Superior into Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwestern Wisconsin continuing to see the wet snow mix with drizzle and light rain at times. This storm we had this weekend is something more typical in October or November, not January, as the higher elevated areas away from Lake Superior has seen heavier snowfall totals compared to locales closer to the lake, pretty unusual to see something like this in late January. High temperatures Today continued to be well above average with mainly 30s across our area while 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from -1 to -3 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the north or west under 20 mph.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Broad upper level trough (528 meters) covered the Northern Plains/Central Plains/and Upper Midwest This Afternoon per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery. Strong shortwave was lifting rapidly N/NW across the Upper Great Lakes late This Afternoon with a deformation snow area setting up across Northeast and Northern Minnesota late Today. An upper level low was found in Eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery with movement toward the east. Strong 120-180 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls were occurring Today across the Central and Northern Great Lakes due to this deepening storm.

Tonight:

Low pressure of 984 mb near the Bayfield/Ashland Wisconsin areas late Today will lift north-northwest toward the Northwestern tip of Lake Superior by late Tonight, pressures with the low will deepen further and should get down to between 978-981 mb by late Tonight. Snow wrapping around the low will be most widespread in Northern and Northeast Minnesota Tonight, mainly affecting Cook, Lake, and Northern St. Louis Counties...Snow will also occur for the remainder of our area Tonight, but should be somewhat lighter and a bit more sporadic compared to areas farther north. Some lingering drizzle and light rain will also continue This Evening close to Lake Superior, down through Eastcentral Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Tonight will settle into the 20s to low 30s with increasing north or west winds at 10-25 mph.

Monday and Monday Night:

Deep low pressure will be tracking E/NE across Northern Lake Superior on Monday and will then track into Eastern Canada by Monday Night. Wrap-around snow showers will persist across our area on Monday with flurries coming to an end by Monday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s, but expect falling daytime temps with teens and 20s by the Afternoon. Lows Tomorrow Night will range from around 10 below to 10 above zero. Gusty northwest winds from 15-30 mph will be common across our area during this period with a few higher gusts even possible. Wind chills by Tomorrow Night will likely drop into the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero across our area...

Final snowfall amounts from this storm will go as follows:

3-7" across all of Northwest Wisconsin, back through the Twin Ports, through Eastern and Northern Minnesota with 7-12" snow totals expected along the Higher Terrain of the North Shore of Lake Superior in Northeast Minnesota.

Extended Forecast:

Main influence on our weather during the extended period will be a polar vortex across Central Canada, this will cause a northwest/northerly flow to develop across the Upper Midwest most of this week...End result will be for a much colder weather regime for our area with mainly dry conditions expected from Tuesday through Friday the way it looks now. High temps Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero.

Lake effect snow update:

With arctic air moving in behind the deep low during the Monday-Tuesday period and with a northwest-north wind coming off Lake Superior, the stage will be set for some lake effect snow from Douglas County through Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin. The threat for lake effect snow will be greatest east of the city of Superior. Snowfall accumulations will range from 3-7" between Monday and Tuesday with some locally higher totals possible.

Note: Driving conditions will continue to be hazardous Tonight through Tomorrow Night across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin due to the wet slushy snow on the ground...Any standing water and slush on roads will freeze and turn to ice as temperatures drop Monday and Tuesday. Use extreme caution if you need to travel Tonight through Tuesday Morning.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*WINTER STORM WARNING* IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CST MONDAY...

.Tonight... Turning breezy. Still mild. Occasional light snow which will continue to mix with light drizzle or light rain through mid-Evening closer to Lake Superior. Snow accumulations of 1-3" possible by dawn. Overcast. Low 25 to 30. Wind west to northwest increasing to 15 to 20 mph late.

.Monday... Mostly cloudy. Windy and turning colder. Occasional snow showers. Additional accumulations less than 2". Total storm accumulations of 6-9" away from Lake Superior and around 2-5" closer to Lake Superior. High 30 to 35 with temperatures falling to around 20. Wind northwest at 15 to 30 mph.

.Monday Night... Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Colder... Windy. Low zero to 5 above. Wind northwest at 15 to 30 mph. Wind chills from 15 below to 25 below zero late.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 8 to 13.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 5 to 10.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 7 below to 12 below.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 1 to 6.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 19 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow -1 degrees

Tim

1/24/2010: STORM UPDATE NUMBER 4

Issued at 7:10 AM CST, Sunday, January 24th, 2010

At 6 AM CST...Low pressure of 990 mb was centered over the Northwest Illinois/Southwest Wisconsin area. Greatest 2 hour pressure falls (3 mb/2 hours!) per RUC model analysis were centered in Eastcentral Wisconsin into Central Upper Michigan early This Morning. End result from this is that we should see the surface low track toward Green Bay Wisconsin, perhaps a little west of Green Bay by mid or late Afternoon. The low should also deepen to around 983 mb by late This Afternoon.

Upper level analysis as of 6 AM CST featured a broad upper level trough (528 meters) covering the Northern Plains with intense upper level winds of 130 knots located on the south-southeast side of the H5 trough...Or running from Central Texas to Southwestern Indiana. The 850 mb temperatures as of 6 AM ranged from zero to -2 degrees C across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

A vigorous shortwave was lifting rapidly toward the north and a little north-northwest out of Northern Illinois early This Morning and this combined with the deepening low to our southeast, the approaching upper level low to our west, and plenty of moisture wrapping into our local area from east to west will result in wintry precipitation through Monday.

Tim

1/24/2010: UPDATED HEADLINE INFORMATION

Issued at 6:36 AM CST, Sunday, January 24th, 2010

Rapidly changing weather conditions during the next few days...

...All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota...

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect until 4 PM CST Monday for Northern and Northeastern Minnesota.

Counties included in the warning:

Koochiching MN...Itasca MN...St. Louis MN...Carlton MN...Lake MN...And Cook MN...

Some cities included in the warning:

International Falls MN...Northome MN...Bigfork MN...Grand Rapids MN...Duluth MN...Cotton MN...Hibbing MN...Crane Lake MN...Ely MN...Cloquet MN...Cromwell MN...Moose Lake MN...Two Harbors MN...Silver Bay MN...Murphy City MN...Finland MN...Lutsen MN...Grand Marais MN...And Grand Portage MN...

Low pressure over Western Illinois early This Morning will lift north and is forecast to reach the Western Upper Michigan/Northern Wisconsin area by This Evening, this low will then reach Central Lake Superior by Monday Morning. As the low lifts north it will deepen to between 977-982 mb!

Widespread precipitation will back west/northwest across the warning area Today with precipitation then shifting more west/south across the warning area Tonight and Monday as the low centers itself to our east.

Colder air working into Northern Minnesota behind the deepening low will cause any mixed precipitation This Morning to switch to all snow Today with snow, possibly heavy at times lingering through This Evening before tapering off somewhat Overnight into Monday.

Expect north to northwest winds to increase across the warning area from Tonight into Monday with wind speeds ranging from 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts developing during the day Monday.

Temperatures, although unseasonably warm Today will fall into the teens and 20s across Northern Minnesota by Monday, with a further drop in temperatures occurring Monday Night into Tuesday...In addition, wind chills will turn bitterly cold by Tomorrow Night and Tuesday, possibly lowering into the teens and 20s below zero!

Since the majority of the snow will fall Today and Tonight when temps will remain very mild, the snow content will be extremely wet, slushy, and heavy. This snow will compact quite easily, but it will also make for very slippery driving conditions...In addition, as temperatures drop by late Tonight and Monday, any standing water or slush will freeze which will make for very dangerous driving conditions in the warning area.

The wet heavy snow accumulating on trees and power lines may lead to some power outages across Northern Minnesota, this threat could actually increase once the wind picks up.

Total snowfall accumulations by Monday Afternoon are expected to range from 3-7", but higher totals from 7-12" are expected especially in Northeast Minnesota, along the Higher Terrain, inland from Lake Superior.

Today through Monday marks the 2nd part of this unusual winter storm, this part of the storm will be much worse than the first part.

If you must travel be sure to use extreme caution, slow down, and make sure you have a winter survival kit in your vehicle in case you become stranded.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until 4 PM CST Monday for all of Northwest Wisconsin and for parts of Eastcentral Minnesota.

Counties included in the advisory:

Cass MN...Crow Wing MN...Aitkin MN...Pine MN...Douglas WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Iron WI...Burnett WI...Washburn WI...Sawyer WI...And Price WI...

Some cities included in the advisory:

Cass Lake MN...Walker MN...Pillager MN...Brainerd MN...Hill City MN...Aitkin MN...Hinckley MN...Pine City MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Hurley WI...Siren WI...Grantsburg WI...Spooner WI...Minong WI...Hayward WI...Phillips WI...And Park Falls WI...

Mixed precipitation in Northwest Wisconsin will gradually turn to all snow Today with snow spreading west into Eastcentral Minnesota through the day. Expect occasional snow to persist Tonight and Monday along with falling temperatures and increasing north to northwest winds.

Total snowfall accumulations by Monday Afternoon are expected to range from 2-6" in the advisory area.

Tim

Saturday, January 23, 2010

1/23/2010: Saturday's Weather Report/STORM UPDATE NUMBER 3

Issued at 5:03 PM CST, Saturday, January 23rd, 2010

Weather History:

On this date last year, the low temperature at the Duluth Airport was -10 degrees.

Note: NWS Duluth precipitation total Today: Just 0.06" with 0.4" of snow reported.

Local storm reports from last night and Today...Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Remer MN (Cass County) 0.25" ICE ACCUMULATION

Hill City MN (Aitkin County) 0.25" ICE ACCUMULATION

Aitkin MN (Aitkin County) 0.25" ICE ACCUMULATION

Wrenshall MN (Carlton County) 0.16" ICE ACCUMULATION

Littlefork MN (Koochiching County) 0.10" ICE ACCUMULATION

Duluth MN (St. Louis County) 0.10" ICE ACCUMULATION

Brainerd MN (Crow Wing County) 0.20" ICE ACCUMULATION

Pillager MN (Cass County) 0.25" ICE ACCUMULATION

Emily MN (Crow Wing County) 0.25" ICE ACCUMULATION

Esko MN (Carlton County) 0.10" ICE ACCUMULATION

5 miles Southeast of Grand Rapids MN (Itasca County) 0.13" ICE ACCUMULATION

Warba MN (Itasca County) 0.13" ICE ACCUMULATION

...Following headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, MN...

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect until 4 PM CST Monday for parts of Northern and Northeast Minnesota.

Counties included in the warning:

Koochiching MN...Itasca MN...Central and Northern St. Louis MN...Lake MN...And Cook MN...

Some cities included in the warning:

International Falls MN...Grand Rapids MN...Hibbing MN...Ely MN...Crane Lake MN...Two Harbors MN...Murphy City MN...Isabella MN...Silver Bay MN...Grand Marais MN...And Grand Portage MN...

A mixture of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and freezing drizzle will gradually turn to all snow from late Tonight into Sunday Morning...Snow will then continue at times through Monday along with increasing north winds with gusts around 15-25 mph developing by Monday. Additional ice accumulations should remain under 0.20" Tonight while snowfall totals by Monday range from 3-7" with locally higher amounts of up to 10" possible along the Higher Terrain inland from Lake Superior.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect until 4 PM CST Monday for parts of Northeast and Eastcentral Minnesota and for all of Northwest Wisconsin.

Counties included in the advisory:

Cass MN...Crow Wing MN...Aitkin MN...Pine MN...Carlton MN...Southern St. Louis MN...Douglas WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Iron WI...Burnett WI...Washburn WI...Sawyer WI...And Price WI...

Some cities included in the advisory:

Cass Lake MN...Walker MN...Pillager MN...Brainerd MN...Aitkin MN...Hill City MN...Pine City MN...Hinckley MN...Moose Lake MN...Cloquet MN...Duluth MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Hurley WI...Siren WI...Grantsburg WI...Spooner WI...Minong WI...Hayward WI...Park Falls WI...And Phillips WI...

A mixture of snow, rain, sleet, freezing rain, and freezing drizzle will gradually shift over to all snow by Sunday from west to east in the advisory area. Additional snow will then fall at times from Sunday Night into Monday. Additional ice accumulations will remain under 0.10" while snowfall totals by Monday range from 2-4", but localized higher amounts from 4-7" could occur, especially in the Minnesota portion of the advisory area, and also including Douglas and Burnett Counties in Northwest Wisconsin.

Travel across the Northland will continue to be hazardous the rest of this weekend into early next week. Expect roads to be slippery, slushy, and snow covered at times with visibilities lowering to around a mile at times through Monday. Use extreme caution if driving, slow down, and make sure to have a winter survival kit in your vehicle in case you become stranded.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

First in a two part storm affected our area Today with low pressure of 994 mb centered in Northern North Dakota while a secondary low also of 994 mb was centered in Western Iowa early This Evening. Plenty of warm and moist air on southeasterly winds have been advecting north into the area Today which resulted in periods of mainly rain in Northwest Wisconsin while in Minnesota, snow, sleet, and freezing rain were more common with some significant icing occurring especially earlier in the day west of the Twin Ports. High temperatures Today were generally in the 30s while the 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM begin to fall off compared to earlier in the day. H85 temps ranged from +1 to +4 degrees C in most of Northwest Wisconsin with zero to -4 degree C H85 temps covering Northcentral and Eastcentral Minnesota. Note: The 850 mb temp at Duluth has dropped from +3 degrees C at 1 PM Today to -1 degree C as of 4 PM Today. Winds Today were out of the east or southeast at 5-15 mph with gusts of 15-30 mph occurring, especially near Lake Superior.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Large upper level low (534 meters) covered the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains early This Evening with a slow drift toward the south/east per water vapor satellite imagery. 120-140 knot upper level winds continued to be found across the Southern Plains or on the south side of the large 500 mb trough which covered the Rockies, Plains, and Upper Midwest Today. Widespread 90-120 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls covered the area from the Upper Midwest through the Central and Southern Plains late Today.

Tonight:

Low pressure across Northern Dakota will remain nearly stationary or drift slightly toward the east Tonight while low pressure gets a bit more organized in Arkansas Overnight. Expect the more persistent snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain to end This Evening across our area with precipitation becoming more scattered Overnight. Northwest Wisconsin will continue to see mainly rain Tonight, but some sleet or snow could mix in with the rain at times. Northern, Northeast, and Eastern Minnesota will see a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain change over to mainly snow during the night. As the precipitation tapers off, expect areas of fog, freezing drizzle, and drizzle to develop Overnight. Snow accumulations by dawn should be under 2" across our area. Lows Tonight will remain unseasonably mild with 20s and 30s expected while winds continue from the east or southeast under 20 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

Large upper level trough will continue to cover the Upper Midwest and Plains during this period while low pressure deepens as it tracks from Arkansas toward Northern Illinois on Sunday, the low is then forecast to shift north toward Northern Wisconsin/Western Upper Michigan by early Monday Morning. Pressures with this low are expected to drop to between 977-982 mb as it lifts toward Northern Wisconsin.

We should see snow redevelop across our area during this period as this system deepens and lifts north while moisture wraps west from that low off to our east. Temperatures aloft will be more supportive of snow compared to Today, but surface temperatures will remain near freezing, as a result the snow that does fall will remain wet and slushy into Sunday Night.

In addition to the expected snow, some drizzle, freezing drizzle, fog, and light rain could linger mainly in Northwest Wisconsin on Sunday.

Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s and low 30s. Winds will shift into the north or west under 20 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Deep low pressure will reach Central Lake Superior by Monday Morning and will then pull off to the E/NE by Monday Night. Wrap-around snows will continue to affect our area on Monday with some lingering flurries into Monday Night. Mainly dry conditions will then return to our area Tuesday and Wednesday, but lake effect snow chances could increase early next week along the South Shore of Lake Superior as arctic air moves in behind the low along with N/NW winds.

High temps on Monday will be in the 20s and 30s, but will fall into the teens and 20s through the day. Lows Monday Night will range from around 5 below to 10 above zero. Highs on Tuesday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Tuesday Night in the single digits and teens below zero.

Aside from the potential for some South Shore lake effect snow at times for next week, it appears the rest of our area will be cold and dry to end January.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY* IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CST MONDAY...

.Tonight... Periods of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain during the Evening...Areas of fog, drizzle, freezing drizzle, and snow showers possible Overnight. Snow accumulations under 2" possible by dawn, mainly away from Lake Superior. Unseasonably mild. Low 30 to 33. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday... Areas of drizzle or freezing drizzle possible. Occasional snow redeveloping. Daytime snow accumulations under 2" possible. Temperatures holding nearly steady from 30 to 33. Wind variable, becoming north at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 70%.

.Sunday Night... Occasional snow. Some accumulation expected. Low 20 to 25. Chance of snow 70%.

.Monday... Occasional snow tapering to flurries during the Afternoon. Total event accumulations around 5". High 27 to 32 with slowly falling temperatures. Chance of snow 60%.

.Monday Night... Colder. Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 3 below to 2 above.

.Tuesday... Much colder. Partly sunny. High 8 to 13.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 7 to 12.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 18 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow -1 degrees

Tim

1/23/2010: STORM UPDATE NUMBER 2

Issued at 1:43 PM CST, Saturday, January 23rd, 2010

At 1 PM CST: A broad area of low pressure (994 mb) extended from the Eastern Dakotas to Eastern Nebraska-Western Iowa. A secondary low (994 mb) was centered in Western Oklahoma.

Upper level analysis early This Afternoon reveals a 500 mb low covering the Northern Plains/Northern Rockies (534 meters) with 130 knot upper level winds across the Southern Plains and a 100 knot jet max streaking north out of Eastern Nebraska.

12 hour 500 mb height falls of 60-90 meters were widespread early This Afternoon from the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains through the Central and Southern Plains.

850 mb temperatures as of 1 PM have cooled to zero to -1 degree C in far Western parts of our area, mainly from around Mizpah and Gimmel southeast to Grand Rapids down toward Hill City and Garrison, these areas have seen a change over to mainly wet snow early This Afternoon even with surface temps still hovering around 33-34 degrees.

Elsewhere across our local area, 850 mb temps remained unseasonably warm with early Afternoon readings ranging from +1 to +5 degrees C including a +3 degree C H85 temp at Duluth as of 1 PM.

All of Northwest Wisconsin will remain warm enough through late This Afternoon for mainly rain, although there could be some pockets of sleet at times, especially in Douglas/Burnett/Washburn/and Bayfield Counties...

The area from Duluth south through the Interstate 35 corridor in Minnesota will continue to experience a mixture between sleet, wet snow, rain, and freezing rain through late This Afternoon.

Sleet and snow accumulations through late This Afternoon will be under 2" across Northern, Northeast, and Eastcentral Minnesota.

Tim

1/23/2010: UPDATED HEADLINE INFORMATION

Issued at 1:21 PM CST, Saturday, January 23rd, 2010

...All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota...

*ICE STORM WARNING*

An Ice Storm Warning is in effect until 6 PM CST Today for parts of Eastcentral Minnesota...

Counties included in the warning:

Southern Itasca MN...Cass MN...Crow Wing MN...And Aitkin MN...

Some cities included in the warning:

Grand Rapids MN...Cass Lake MN...Walker MN...Pillager MN...Brainerd MN...Aitkin MN...Hill City MN...And McGregor MN...

Freezing rain Overnight and This Morning has accumulated up to one quarter inch of ice across the warning area...Additional freezing rain mixed at times with wet snow and sleet will continue through early This Evening with additional ice accumulations up to one quarter inch possible which will bring total ice accumulations up to one half inch in some locations.

Ice accumulation on trees and power lines combined with east winds up to 20 mph may result in downed trees and power lines and possible power outages.

Many roads especially secondary and untreated roads will remain slick and hazardous through the weekend.

Use extreme caution if you have travel plans this weekend and make sure to have a winter survival kit in your vehicle in case you become stranded.

This same area is also under a *Winter Weather Advisory* which is in effect from 6 PM CST This Evening until 12 PM CST Monday. Snowfall totals of 1-4" can be expected in the warning area by Monday.

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect until 12 PM CST Monday for Northern and parts of Northeast Minnesota.

Counties included in the warning:

Koochiching MN...Northern Itasca MN...Central and Northern St. Louis MN...Lake MN...And Cook MN...

Some cities included in the warning:

International Falls MN...Littlefork MN...Northome MN...Bigfork MN...Hibbing MN...Meadowlands MN...Cotton MN...Ely MN...Crane Lake MN...Two Harbors MN...Whyte MN...Forest Center MN...Silver Bay MN...Grand Marais MN...Lutsen MN...Grand Portage MN...And Tofte MN...

A mixture of wet snow, sleet, and freezing rain will gradually turn to all snow by late Tonight with periods of snow then continuing into Monday. Total ice accumulations of one tenth to two tenths of an inch are possible with total snowfall accumulations of 3-6" with localized higher amounts up to 8" possible by Monday.

Travel will continue to be slick and hazardous through the weekend, if you have to travel, slow down and make sure to have a winter survival kit in your vehicle in case you become stranded.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until 12 PM CST Monday for all of Northwest Wisconsin and for parts of Eastcentral and Northeast Minnesota.

Counties included in the advisory:

Southern St. Louis MN...Carlton MN...Pine MN...Douglas WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Iron WI...Burnett WI...Washburn WI...Sawyer WI...And Price WI...

Some cities included in the advisory:

Duluth MN...Cloquet MN...Moose Lake MN...Hinckley MN...Pine City MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Hurley WI...Siren WI...Grantsburg WI...Minong WI...Spooner WI...Hayward WI...Park Falls WI...And Phillips WI...

A messy mixture of wet snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain will continue to fall This Afternoon and This Evening in the advisory area with a gradual change to wet snow occurring from west to east by late Tonight and Sunday. Ice accumulations will remain under two tenths of an inch while sleet and snow accumulations of 1-3" are possible by Monday.

Travel will continue to be slick and hazardous this weekend, if you must travel, slow down and make sure to have a winter survival kit in your vehicle in case you become stranded.

Tim

Friday, January 22, 2010

1/22/2010: STORM UPDATE NUMBER 1

Issued at 10:46 PM CST, Friday, January 22nd, 2010

*Winter Weather Advisory* for Duluth-Superior until 6 PM CST Saturday.

*Winter Storm Watch* for Duluth-Superior from Saturday Evening through Monday Afternoon.

...All headlines issued for our local area are unchanged at this time...

As of 10 PM CST...Low pressure of 992 mb was centered in Southeast Montana with a 990 mb low centered along the Eastern Colorado/Western Kansas line.

Broad upper level trough continued to cover the Western U.S. late This Evening with a southwest flow aloft in place across the Upper Midwest.

The first stage of this storm was lifting northeast across Central Minnesota This Evening as an area of mixed winter precipitation was occurring in that area of the state. A strong 35-55 knot S/SE 850 mb jet was in place from the Plains into the Upper Midwest This Evening and this has helped in causing this precipitation. Strong warm/moist advection was also occurring across most of our local area This Evening with 850 mb temperatures as of 10 PM ranging from +1 to +4 degrees C across the area. Note: 850 mb temp at Duluth was +2 degrees C as of 10 PM.

Surface temps Overnight through Saturday Morning are expected to remain in the 27-33 degree range across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin while latest model runs suggest that 850 mb temperatures will remain in the zero to around +5 degree C range across our area.

The band of precipitation in Central Minnesota will continue to lift northeast and should affect most of the area by dawn. Precipitation amounts with this first wave should be around or under 0.10" by Saturday Morning. Freezing rain, sleet, and wet snow should be the main precipitation type Overnight into Saturday Morning in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with snow and sleet accumulations under 2" while ice accumulations would remain less than 0.10".

We could see somewhat of a lull in the precipitation at somepoint between mid-Morning Saturday into early Saturday Afternoon, then a steadier band of precip should affect our area from Saturday Afternoon into early Sunday...By this time, the atmosphere is expected to cool some with 850 mb temps falling to between -2 and +2 degrees C from west to east in our local area, but at the sametime surface temps will remain mild, and will stay in the 28-34 degree range.

Based on the latest model trends it would appear that snow or sleet will become the main P-TYPE from the Twin Ports west during the Saturday Afternoon and Saturday Night period while a continued mixed bag of precipitation continues south/southeast of the Twin Ports.

By Sunday Morning...1-4" of wet slushy snow is expected to accumulate across all of our area, with the greater snowfall totals expected west-north of Duluth/Superior.

Ice accumulations should remain under 0.20" from Saturday into Saturday Night.

The second part of this storm remains uncertain late Tonight with the latest model runs continuing to show a deep low tracking from Southeastern Missouri toward Northern Wisconsin then into Central Lake Superior from Sunday into Monday.

Additional snow looks likely in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on the backside of this low from Sunday Afternoon into Monday, but at this time it appears that additional snow accumulations would be light and will range from 1-3" by Monday.

The end result to all this is that the winter storm watch that is currently in effect for Saturday Evening through Monday Afternoon could be downgraded to an advisory, or the watch could be dropped all together...Expect some change to the second part of the headline by Morning.

This system remains very complex and additional changes could occur.

Stay tuned for more updates

Tim

1/22/2010: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:22 PM CST, Friday, January 22nd, 2010

...VERY COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER LATE TONIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND, AND POSSIBLY LASTING INTO MONDAY...

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Brief showers of mixed winter precipitation continued to fall across parts of our area Today, but the showers have trended fewer and far between This Afternoon. Mostly cloudy skies covered our area Today with daytime highs in the 20s and 30s with 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranging from zero to +3 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the east at 5-15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph especially near Lake Superior. Surface map late This Afternoon featured several strong areas of low pressure across the Rockies. Low number one (988 mb) was centered in Central Idaho. Low number two (988 mb) was centered in Northeast Wyoming. Low number three (986 mb) was centered in Eastern Colorado. High pressure of 1030 mb was centered in Southern Hudson Bay Canada.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

A huge trough of low pressure covered the entire Western part of the U.S. Today with a southwest flow aloft in place across the Upper Midwest, or to the east of the upper trough. Within this broad H5 trough there was an upper level low (528 meters) which was centered in Central Idaho late Today per water vapor satellite imagery. Powerful jet stream winds from 130-160 knots were found across the Southwest U.S. and West Texas late Today, or on the south/southeast side of the H5 trough. A rather broad area of 60-90 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls covered the Southern-Central Rockies This Afternoon per RUC model analysis due to this storm.

Tonight through Saturday Night:

The broad upper level trough currently in the Western U.S. will move out into the Northern and Central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley region through this period. A couple areas of low pressure (987-993 mb) embedded within this upper trough will move out onto the Northern and Central Plains from Tonight through Tomorrow Night.

S/SE low level jet from 35-55 knots will be found Tonight and Tomorrow across the Upper Midwest, or to the east/northeast of the low. This LLJ will advect warm and moist air north into our area and that combined with the powerful upper level jet across the Southern-Central Plains will help in producing bands of precipitation which will shift southwest to north-northeast across our area during this period.

PWATS of .50"-.80" across the Northern-Central Plains This Afternoon will lift northeast into our local area while 850 mb temps range from zero to +4 degrees C Tonight and Saturday.

Expect a variety of precipitation types to fall across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with anything from snow to freezing rain to sleet to rain expected to occur.

Majority of the precipitation that falls Tonight and Saturday Morning should be in the form of snow, freezing rain or sleet. Most of the precip that does fall in our area is expected to stay fairly light for Tonight.

Bands of snow, sleet, or freezing rain should continue to pass through our area on Saturday with a heavier period of precipitation expected to spread N/NE through our area from Saturday Afternoon into early Sunday.

Temperatures are expected to warm enough by Saturday Afternoon and Saturday Night which should cause mainly rain or pockets of sleet/freezing rain in most of Northwest Wisconsin while an icy mix of precip continues from the Twin Ports, south, west, and north.

The immediate Duluth/Superior area, especially below the hill (closer to Lake Superior) could even see more rain versus ice/snow by Saturday Afternoon or Evening, but this would be dependent on how warm it gets Saturday Afternoon/Evening.

Snow/sleet accumulations from 1-4" are possible across Northern/Northeast/and Eastcentral Minnesota by Sunday Morning with snow totals generally less than 1" in most of Northwest Wisconsin.

Ice accumulations could reach 0.10"-0.25" between late Tonight and Saturday Evening...Mainly in Northcentral/Northeast/and Eastcentral Minnesota.

Temperatures from Tonight through Saturday Night will change little and should range from the mid 20s to mid 30s...Coldest north of the Iron Range.

Winds during this period will be out of the east at 10-20 mph, but gusts could reach 25-35 mph, especially near Lake Superior.

Extended Forecast:

On Sunday, the broad upper level trough will continue to cover the Upper Midwest and Plains while a secondary low develops across Southeastern Missouri...This low is then expected to lift north and will deepen (981-984 mb) as energy from the Northern Plains low phases somewhat with the low to our southeast.

How far west that secondary low tracks, and how much moisture gets thrown west into our area behind that secondary low will determine just how much additional snow will see across our local area from Sunday into Monday.

The European model has the farthest west solution, bringing the low toward the Apostle Islands (South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin) other models keep it more or less toward the Northeast Wisconsin/Central Upper Michigan area.

Falling temperatures and increasing north winds will be found on the backside of this low from late Sunday into Monday, and if we see additional snow develop across our area with that secondary low, then we could be dealing with some very dangerous travel conditions late this weekend into early next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY* IN EFFECT FROM 12 AM CST TONIGHT UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY...

*WINTER STORM WATCH* IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.Tonight... Breezy. Areas of fog and freezing drizzle. A mixture of snow, freezing rain, and sleet developing Overnight. Low 25 to 30. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Saturday... Windy. Areas of fog... Periods of freezing rain, sleet, snow, and rain. High 30 to 35. Wind east at 15 to 30 mph.

.Saturday Night... Periods of freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Some rain is also possible. Areas of fog. Low 30 to 35. Wind east to southeast at 15 to 20 mph. Snow and sleet accumulations of 1-3" possible with Ice accumulations up to 0.10".

.Sunday... Occasional light snow, drizzle, or freezing drizzle. High 30 to 35. Chance of precipitation 40%. Little snow accumulation expected.

.Sunday Night... Snow possible. Some accumulation possible. Turning breezy. Low 15 to 20. Wind becoming north to northwest at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow 50%.

.Monday... Breezy. Snow possible. Some accumulation possible. High 27 to 32 with falling temperatures. Wind north to northwest at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow 50%.

.Monday Night... Much colder. Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 3 below to 2 above.

.Tuesday... Much colder. Partly sunny. High 8 to 13.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 18 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow -1 degrees

Tim

1/22/2010: UPDATED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES

Issued at 3:50 PM CST, Friday, January 22nd, 2010

...Following headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for all of the Northland.

Timing:

12 AM CST Tonight until 6 PM CST Saturday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Koochiching MN...Itasca MN...Cass MN...Crow Wing MN...Aitkin MN...Pine MN...Carlton MN...St. Louis MN...Lake MN...Cook MN...Douglas WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Iron WI...Burnett WI...Washburn WI...Sawyer WI...And Price WI.

Some cities included in the advisory:

International Falls MN...Grand Rapids MN...Cass Lake MN...Walker MN...Pillager MN...Brainerd MN...Aitkin MN...Hill City MN...Pine City MN...Hinckley MN...Moose Lake MN...Cloquet MN...Duluth MN...Hibbing MN...Ely MN...Crane Lake MN...Two Harbors MN...Silver Bay MN...Grand Marais MN...Grand Portage MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Hurley WI...Grantsburg WI...Siren WI...Minong WI...Spooner WI...Hayward WI...Park Falls WI...And Phillips WI...

Impacts:

A combination of snow, freezing rain, and sleet will spread northeast across the advisory area Tonight. A mixture of snow, freezing rain, and sleet will continue on Saturday, although some rain may start to mix in with the frozen precipitation by Saturday Afternoon...Especially south/east of a Pine City MN to Ashland WI line.

Snow and sleet accumulations of 1-3" are possible by late Saturday. Freezing rain accumulations should remain under 0.25" through Saturday.

*WINTER STORM WATCH*

A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for all of the Northland. All of the Counties included in the Winter Weather Advisory are also in the Winter Storm Watch.

Timing:

Saturday Evening through Monday Afternoon.

Impacts:

Heavier precipitation in the form of freezing rain, sleet, snow, or rain is forecast to affect the watch area Saturday Evening and Overnight Saturday with precipitation tapering off during the day Sunday. Precipitation, mainly in the form of snow could then pick up in intensity by Sunday Evening into Monday.

Significant accumulations of ice and snow are possible Saturday Night mainly in Northern and Northeast Minnesota with a lesser chance in Northwest Wisconsin where more rain is expected. Several inches of snow are then possible across the entire watch area by late Sunday into Monday.

Wind Forecast:

Strongest winds will occur Tonight through Saturday Night. Winds will decrease on Sunday, and will increase once again by Sunday Night and Monday. 10-25 mph winds will be the norm across our area, but higher gusts from 25-35 mph could develop, especially near Lake Superior. Expect east winds through early Sunday then backing north by Sunday Night and Monday.

The combination of gusty winds and falling precipitation will lower visibilities. Areas of blowing and drifting snow could also develop across parts of our area at times through Monday.

Travel will become increasingly more difficult across the Northland as mixed precipitation develops Tonight through Saturday Night. Use extreme caution if you plan on doing any travel this weekend into early next week.

This is a very complex storm system and changes to the track or temperature profile of the atmosphere are certainly possible.

Stay tuned for further updates.

Tim

1/22/2010: WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES

Issued at 10:29 AM CST, Friday, January 22nd, 2010

...Following headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota...

*WINTER STORM WATCH*

A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for all of the Northland...

Timing:

Late Tonight through Sunday Evening

Counties included in the watch:

Koochiching MN...Itasca MN...Cass MN...Crow Wing MN...Aitkin MN...Pine MN...Carlton MN...St. Louis MN...Lake MN...Cook MN...Douglas WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Iron WI...Burnett WI...Washburn WI...Sawyer WI...And Price WI...

Some cities included in the watch:

International Falls MN...Grand Rapids MN...Walker MN...Brainerd MN...Aitkin MN...Pine City MN...Hinckley MN...Moose Lake MN...Cloquet MN...Duluth MN...Hibbing MN...Ely MN...Crane Lake MN...Two Harbors MN...Silver Bay MN...Grand Marais MN...Grand Portage MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Hurley WI...Grantsburg WI...Siren WI...Spooner WI...Minong WI...Hayward WI...Park Falls WI...And Phillips WI...

Discussion:

Strong low pressure will head out of the Rockies and into the Central Plains on Saturday before turning northeast into the Upper Midwest by Sunday. This storm will bring a mix bag of precipitation to the entire area starting Tonight and lasting through Monday.

Look for snow to mix with sleet, freezing rain, and rain across the watch area...Spreading from southwest to northeast late Tonight. This mixed precipitation will continue Saturday into Saturday Night before turning to all snow from west to east across the watch area on Sunday.

There is still some uncertainty regarding the storm track and the temperature profile of the atmosphere which will determine in how much precipitation falls as snow versus a mix.

Should snow be the dominate precipitation type...Then snowfall totals may be higher for some parts of our area.

Right now the potential exists for snow accumulations of 6 or more inches across the watch area, with the greatest potential for a half foot or more of snow occurring across Crow Wing...Itasca...And Koochiching Counties in Minnesota.

There is also a potential for some sleet and ice accumulations, especially on colder outdoor surfaces such as trees, power lines, and lesser traveled roads.

Precautionary/Preparedness actions:

A Winter Storm Watch means there is the potential for significant accumulation of snow...sleet...or ice that may impact travel and commerce. You are encouraged to stay current with the latest weather information regarding this developing winter storm.

Tim

Thursday, January 21, 2010

1/21/2010: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:06 PM CST, Thursday, January 21st, 2010

Weather tidbits: Source NWS Duluth, MN.

-Average monthly temperature at the Duluth Airport thru the 20th: 9.9 degrees which is 1.8 degrees above average. Just 9 days ago the Duluth Airport had a monthly temperature of 0.1 degrees which was 8.1 degrees below average!

-Last time with a sub-zero low temperature at the Duluth Airport: 1/9/10, low temperature that Morning was -18 degrees.

-Monthly precipitation total thru the 20th: Trace
Departure: 0.73" below normal

-Monthly snowfall total thru the 20th: 0.9"
Departure: 12.3" below normal

Weather Headlines:

-Messy/complicated storm still expected this weekend

-Bulk of the precipitation looks to fall Saturday into early Sunday

-Lighter precipitation may linger Sunday thru Monday

-Colder/drier weather returns next week

Note: Record low barometric pressure readings occurred at Los Angeles and San Diego California Today. Other all-time record low barometric pressure readings were set at Eureka CA, Fresno CA, Bakersfield CA, and Las Vegas Nevada Today. Source: TWCi

Los Angeles California: 29.20"/988 mb. Previous record: 29.25"/990 mb

San Diego California: 29.28"/991 mb

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Some sunshine occurred earlier Today in far Northeast Minnesota otherwise skies across our area were mostly cloudy. A feed of moisture running northwest to southeast from Central/Southern Minnesota into Western Wisconsin has resulted in the development of some showers of sleet, snow, and freezing rain Today in those above mentioned areas...Some of this mixed winter precipitation has been affecting Western-Southern parts of our local area Today, mainly affecting Aitkin, Carlton, and Pine Counties in Minnesota as well as Douglas and Burnett Counties in Wisconsin. Visibilities have lowered to around 2-3 miles at times This Afternoon in some locales as those mixed winter showers pass through. High temperatures Today were in the 20s to lower 30s with 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranging from -1 to +3 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the east at 5-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph in parts of our area. Surface map late This Afternoon featured high pressure of 1024 mb centered over Northern Ontario Province. Low pressure of 998 mb was centered in extreme Southwest Indiana. Low pressure centers of 978 mb were found off the coast of Oregon and off-shore from Southwestern California.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Active El Nino pattern rolls on. Storm number one responsible in 14 tornadoes on Wednesday in Louisiana and Northeast Texas was moving east/northeast through Kentucky and Tennessee Today with a feed of mid/high level moisture northwest of that system pushing northeast through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery. An upper level ridge continued to sit over the Upper Great Lakes through the Northeast U.S. and portions of Eastern Canada Today while a very large upper level trough covered the Western U.S. with 500 mb lows centered off-shore of Washington/Oregon and California. A powerful 120-160+ knot upper level jet extended from the Central Pacific southeast through Northern Mexico/Southwest U.S. east to Central Texas Today.

Tonight:

High pressure will remain anchored to our northeast while some moisture advecting north across the Upper Midwest results in pockets of snow, sleet, or freezing rain Tonight...Mainly affecting Western-Southern parts of our local area. Nothing significant is expected with snow amounts less than 1", but there could be some light icing that develops, especially on lesser traveled roads. Mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with lows in the teens and 20s. East winds will continue under 20 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

High pressure will remain off to our northeast during this period while a broad upper level trough continues to track through the Western U.S. Strong low pressure (979-984 mb) will be heading through the Rockies during this period with a southerly flow and a 30-45 knot low level jet out ahead of this system spreads moist air north across the Plains into the Upper Midwest. Mostly cloudy skies are forecast during this period with the possibility for some light snow, sleet, or light freezing drizzle on Friday, nothing significant is expected Tomorrow, however.

By Friday Night, a more organized area of snow or mixed snow, sleet, and freezing rain should begin to spread N/NE into Western-Southern parts of our local area...Or along and south-west of a line from Longville MN toward Spooner WI.

High temperatures on Friday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Friday Night generally in the 20s. Winds during this period will be out of the east at 5-15 mph with gusts as high as 25 mph, especially near Lake Superior.

Extended Forecast:

An elongated upper level trough will cover the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest/and Central Plains this weekend before the upper trough exits to our east by early next week. Surface low pressure (989-993 mb) is forecast to be somewhere between Southeastern South Dakota and Southern Nebraska (depending on which model you look at) on Saturday with the broad area of low pressure heading E/NE, but passing south of our local area by Sunday and early Monday.

The upper level pattern has similar characteristics to the pattern during the 2009 Christmas storm, but the intensity of the low although still strong this weekend is weaker than the Christmas storm, also the whole upper level trough and surface area of low pressure is much broader with this system compared to the '09 Christmas storm which featured a more compact surface and upper level low.

The storm this weekend will have plenty of moisture to work with, Note: PWS upwards of 0.50"-0.75"! Will also have a strong LLJ of 30-50 knots coming up from the south out ahead of the low Saturday into early Sunday which will cause warm advection across our area.

Heaviest precipitation associated with this storm is forecast to occur from Saturday into early Sunday the way it looks now as some heavier bands of precipitation lift north across our area during that period. Lighter precipitation is then forecast from Sunday into Monday as the deformation zone (wrap-around) snows drop south through our area.

Bottom line:

Northern Minnesota should see mainly snow this weekend as well as the Higher Terrain along the North Shore of Lake Superior with 850 mb temps in these areas ranging from -2 to zero degrees C. Locations south/southeast from Northern Minnesota will likely see fluctuations between wet snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain with a change-over to wet snow taking place by Sunday. Rain looks most likely in Northwestern Wisconsin during the Saturday Afternoon-early Sunday time frame, but pockets of sleet and or freezing rain are still possible in that area.

It's still uncertain as to how much snow/ice/rain will fall in our immediate area as the forecast models Today continue to differ somewhat with the track of the low and how much precipitation will fall, but early estimates indicate anywhere from 0.50"-1.00" of liquid precipitation coming down by Monday.

Since the snow is forecast to be wet in nature due to the warm temperatures, snow ratios will be very low, generally in the 5:1 to possibly 10:1 range. Using the above mentioned QPF totals/snow ratios would result in a 4-8" snowfall with localized amounts of 8-10". The area/s that have the best chance at seeing that much snow would be in Northern Minnesota and the Higher Terrain along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Snow totals should generally be under 4" for the rest of our local area, including the Twin Ports. The lower snow totals would be the result of more mixed precipitation versus all snow. The possibility for some sleet accumulation and the potential for ice accumulations also exists south of Northern Minnesota, but just how much icing occurs is up in the air right now.

Expect winter weather headlines, most likely advisories to be issued for our area by the National Weather Service by Friday Morning or Friday Evening at the latest. This event right now looks more like an advisory, but some parts of our area could be under a warning. This would include Northern Minnesota, along the North Shore of Lake Superior, and perhaps south through the Twin Ports, Brainerd, and Aitkin...But I think that would depend on if or how much icing would accumulate along with the expected snow.

High temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be in the 20s and 30s across our area with lows Saturday Night in the 20s to low 30s with lows Sunday Night in the teens and 20s.

Next week, after Monday looks mainly dry across our area with colder air dropping south from Canada into the Upper Midwest.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy. Brief showers of mixed winter precipitation along with some patchy light freezing drizzle is possible. Low 20 to 25. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. Patchy flurries or light freezing drizzle possible at times. High 27 to 32. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Snow or mixed snow, sleet, and freezing rain developing after 4 AM. Low 23 to 27. Wind east at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation 40%.

.Saturday... Periods of snow or mixed snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Some accumulation of snow and ice expected. High 30 to 33. Chance of precipitation 80%.

.Saturday Night... Periods of snow or mixed snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Some accumulation of snow and ice expected. Low 27 to 30. Chance of precipitation 80%.

.Sunday... Periods of light snow which could be mixed with freezing drizzle or drizzle. Some additional accumulation of snow is possible. High 30 to 33. Chance of precipitation 60%.

.Sunday Night... Occasional light snow. Low 15 to 20. Chance of snow 50%.

.Monday... Light snow or flurries possible. High 20 to 25. Chance of snow 50%.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 18 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow -1 degrees

Tim