Monday, November 30, 2009

11/30/09: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:14 PM CST, Monday, November 30th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 1985... 10.3" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Note: Some snow fell Today mainly in far Northern and far Northeast Minnesota. Here are some snowfall reports. Data provided by the National Weather Service, Duluth, Minnesota.

International Falls MN (Koochiching County) 1.1"

Kabetogama MN (St. Louis County) 1.5"

Ely MN (St. Louis County) 2.0"

Lutsen MN (Cook County) 1.2"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Another fast moving weather disturbance passed southeast across our area Today and brought with it some snow for a time Today across parts of Northern and Northeast Minnesota as well as a bit of a mixture of precipitation over parts of Northwest Wisconsin. All of this precipitation has ended early This Evening. Partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies covered our area Today with high temperatures generally in the 30s to around 40 degrees. 850 mb temperatures as of 6 PM ranged from -2 to -7 degrees C across our area but warmer air with +4 to +12 degree C H85 temperatures were found across the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains early This Evening out ahead of a clipper system in Western Canada. Winds Today were out of the south, west, or northwest generally under 20 mph. Surface map as of 6 PM featured low pressure of 1000 mb centered just north of Lake Superior with a trough stretching southwest of this low into Northern Minnesota. Low pressure of 1004 mb was centered in Southwest Saskatchewan Province with some pretty good snow occurring north-east of this low across Southern Saskatchewan This Evening.

(This Evening's Upper Level Analysis)

Northwest 500 mb flow continued around the Upper Midwest This Evening with 90-120 knot mid/upper level winds covering parts of the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes region. A 558 meter upper level low was centered in Northern Mexico early This Evening per RUC model analysis/water vapor satellite imagery while a vigorous clipper storm dives south-east out of Southwestern Canada with 90-120 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls occurring near this system across the Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies/and Western Canada.

(Tonight)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight as low pressure heads toward Northern North Dakota by dawn with any precipitation associated with that low remaining west-northwest of our area Tonight. Lows will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees with winds out of the northwest, southwest, or south under 15 mph...However higher wind gusts to 25 mph will occur This Evening across parts of Northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead of Minnesota.

(Tuesday and Tuesday Night)

A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Northwest Minnesota on Tuesday...A winter weather headline could be issued for some parts of our area for Tuesday and Tuesday Night...

An area of low pressure is forecast to track almost due east across Northern Minnesota Tuesday and Tuesday Evening before exiting to our north-east by late Tuesday Night. Frontogenesis and warm advection should be greatest on the north-east side of this low and as a result it appears that most of the precipitation associated with this system will remain north of the Iron Range...Or generally along and north of a line from Bemidji to Silver Bay. Temperatures appear that they will remain cold enough from surface to aloft which combined with favorable thickness values should result in the main precipitation type coming in the form of snow during this period across Northern Minnesota. At this time it appears that 1-3" of snow may accumulate by early Wednesday for Koochiching...Northern St. Louis...Northern Itasca...Northern Lake...And Northern Cook Counties with the lesser totals in southern parts of those Counties and the higher end of these totals occurring up near the Ontario/Minnesota border. It should be noted that the models have trended somewhat farther south with the track of this low during this period with the last few runs per NAM/WRF model showing a slower track and a slightly more southerly track compared to the other short term models.

Again the best chance for precipitation should occur from the Iron Range on north during this period but some snow or mixed precipitation could also occur farther south...However precipitation chances will be less with totals much less as well compared to what is expected up north.

Look for mostly cloudy skies during this period across our area with highs Tuesday in the 30s with some 40s possible in Southern areas. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees but some teens are possible in Western areas. Winds on Tuesday will be out of the south or east under 20 mph with winds Tomorrow Night out of the north, east, or west at 10-25 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

Models are beginning to show lots of variability by next week with plenty of possible outcomes for our area...

First off the cold airmass forecast for mid to late this week still looks likely as a strong storm heads northeast out of the Gulf Coast up the Eastern seaboard with high pressure off to our west...End result will be a northerly flow and much colder temperatures for the Upper Midwest with a high chance for some significant lake effect snow during the Wednesday-Friday time frame for the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin...The Counties of Bayfield...Ashland...And Iron will have the best chance to see 6 or more inches of snow from mid to late week...But Douglas County south-east of the city of Superior could also see some accumulating lake snow if winds go more northerly or even N-NE. Winter weather headlines seem like a good bet at somepoint between Wednesday-Friday east of the Twin Ports.

High temperatures across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Wednesday and Thursday will be in the teens and 20s with a few 30s possible on Wednesday. Lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night will be in the teens to lower 20s with some single digit readings possible depending on sky conditions/wind speeds.

As we head into this weekend and beyond the models are showing plenty of issues from one run to the next. The GFS model in particular has been showing huge extremes from one run to the next.

The possible outcomes for our area which are plenty include...Arctic air and mainly dry conditions for our area most of next week to the possibility for some snow events with near seasonal temps while all the bitter cold arctic air gets trapped in Western Canada and bleeds southwest into the Pacific Northwest states which would eventually result in a west-southwest 500 mb flow for our area which would increase the prospects for winter precipitation...The other solution would be for moderating temps and possible snow or even rain... Plenty of time to keep an eye on things but the potential is there for the weather pattern to become much more active around the U.S. at least through the first half of December.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 23 to 28. Wind northwest at 10-20 mph...Decreasing to around 12 mph and becoming south toward dawn.

.Tuesday... Mostly cloudy. Light snow or rain possible during the Afternoon. High 35 to 40. Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 30%.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible at times. Low 20 to 25. Wind becoming west at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 30%.

.Wednesday... Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 28 to 33 with slowly falling temperatures.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 12 to 17.

.Thursday... Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 20 to 25.

.Thursday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 10 to 15.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 20 to 25.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 27 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 13 degrees

Tim

11/30/09: Possible snow on Tuesday

Issued at 7:46 AM CST, Monday, November 30th, 2009

...An area of low pressure is forecast to move east-southeast out of Western Canada Today and will pass through Northern Minnesota Tuesday and Tuesday Evening before exiting off to the east by late Tuesday Night...The track of this low has shifted a bit more to the south on the latest model runs and if this more southern route continues, then some measurable snow will occur across parts of Northern Minnesota for Tuesday into early Wednesday...

At this time it appears that 1-3" of snow may accumulate from Tuesday into early Wednesday across Northern Minnesota...Generally north of a line from Bigfork to Forest Center Minnesota. Some cities that could be impacted include...International Falls MN...Northome MN...Togo MN...Crane Lake MN...Orr MN...Ely MN...And Forest Center MN...

The track of this low pressure system could still change a bit with future model runs and as a result the axis of snow and how much falls may shift a bit to the north or south. Stay tuned for more updates as additional information becomes available throughout the day.

It's possible that some some sort of a winter weather headline may be needed for parts of Northern Minnesota for Tuesday into early Wednesday.

Tim

Sunday, November 29, 2009

11/29/09: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:37 PM CST, Sunday, November 29th, 2009

A band of snow developed Saturday Night and early Sunday Morning across portions of Northcentral Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin with the heavier snowfall totals confined to Northwest Wisconsin. Here are some snowfall reports that occurred around our area earlier Today. Data provided by the National Weather Service, Duluth, Minnesota.

Park Falls WI (Price County) 1.0"

4 miles North of Grantsburg WI (Burnett County) .7"

International Falls MN (Koochiching County) .6"

Exeland WI (Sawyer County) 1.5"

Grand Rapids MN (Itasca County) .5"

Upson WI (Iron County) 1.0"

Winter WI (Sawyer County) 1.6"

Gile WI (Iron County) 1.0"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Mostly cloudy skies were found across our area Today with high temperatures generally in the 30s so still a few degrees above normal for late November. Any leftover snow showers and flurries from earlier Today ended before Noon. Winds Today were out of the north or west under 20 mph. The 850 mb temperatures as of 5 PM were at -6 degrees C. Surface map early This Evening featured high pressure of 1018 mb centered in Eastern South Dakota with low pressure of 1004 mb centered over the far Eastern part of Lake Huron.

(This Evening's Upper Level Analysis)

Northwest 500 mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest This Evening with a vigorous shortwave trough associated with 90 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls and -30 to -34 degree C 500 mb temperatures was shifting east across the Upper Midwest/Western and Central Great Lakes and Central Canada. (558 meter) upper level low was nearly stationary over the Northern parts of the Baja with a 100-110 knot upper level wind max found south-east of that upper low. Additional energy was heading into Western Canada This Evening with 100-120 knot upper level winds found across parts of the Northern Plains into Western Canada.

(Tonight)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with high pressure in control of our weather. Lows will be mainly in the 20s but some teens can't be ruled out in the traditional cold spots especially is skies can clear out for a few hours which they may do for a time later Tonight. Winds will be out of the north, west, or southwest under 15 mph.

(Monday and Monday Night)

Another fast moving disturbance will be tracking southeast across our area from Monday into early Monday Night. This disturbance much like the one that moved through Saturday Night will have an 80 knot mid level jet associated with it and this could provide enough lift despite meager amounts of moisture in place to produce some snow showers and flurries around our area on Monday. Snowfall amounts should remain under one inch the way it looks now. Mostly cloudy skies are expected on Monday with partly-mostly cloudy skies for Monday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s. Winds during this period will be out of the southwest or northwest at 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

A strong area of low pressure will be passing off to our west-north from Tuesday into Wednesday while a cold front and strong vort max sweeps south-east through our area on Tuesday. The most widespread precipitation associated with this storm is forecast to remain north of the border...However some snow or mixed precipitation could occur on Tuesday across Northern Minnesota but any precipitation that does fall should be on the light side. Strong cold advection and gusty northwest winds will overspread the area by Tuesday Afternoon-Evening with some flurries or snow showers possible at times from Tuesday Night through Thursday as a much colder airmass overtakes our area.

A significant lake effect snow event is quite possible along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin beginning late Tuesday Night and possibly lingering through Thursday. Bayfield...Ashland...And Iron Counties appear to be where the brunt of the lake snow will set-up as northwest to north winds and -10 to -14 degree C 850 mb temperatures move over Lake Superior. The potential does exist for snow totals to reach or possibly exceed 6" over parts of those areas by later this week.

High temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s on Tuesday with highs Wednesday generally in the 20s but some locales could hold in the teens. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the teens and 20s with lows Wednesday Night in the single digits and teens. We could be dealing with sub-zero wind chill readings at times around our area especially during the Overnight/Morning hours depending on wind speeds and the actual temperatures during those times.

A brief warm-up may occur across the Upper Midwest sometime between this coming Friday-Sunday before a true arctic airmass descends south-east into our area sometime the early part of the following week per latest GFS model trends. Extremely low 500 mb heights and 850 mb temperatures possibly in the minus 20s to around -30 degrees C could result in some bitterly cold air spreading south into our area at somepoint during the next two weeks.

Whether or not we see any sort of snow system/s impact our area before this arctic air moves in remains to be seen although right now snow chances look pretty low outside of the Snowbelt region in Northwestern Wisconsin.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy with some clearing possible at times later in the night. Low 20 to 25. Wind west around 12 mph.

.Monday... Partly sunny early otherwise mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible. Accumulations under an inch. High 30 to 35. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 40%.

.Monday Night... Becoming partly cloudy. Low 20 to 25. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday... Mostly cloudy. High 35 to 40.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Colder. Flurries possible. Low 20 to 25. Northwest winds could gust to 25 mph.

.Wednesday... Mostly cloudy. Colder. Flurries possible. High 28 to 33 with slowly falling temperatures.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 8 to 13.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. High 18 to 23.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 28 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 13 degrees

Tim

Saturday, November 28, 2009

11/28/09: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:19 PM CST, Saturday, November 28th, 2009

Note: Consecutive days in a row with a high temperature above 32 degrees stopped at 239 straight days at the Duluth Airport on November 26th, 2009. The high temperature at the Airport on the 26th was 32 degrees which ended our consecutive days in a row with a high temperature above freezing at 239 days which places it 8th on the list. The record was 257 days set in 1878.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Low pressure of 1008 mb was centered in Northeast Iowa late This Afternoon with a 1004 mb low centered over the Southern part of Kansas. A cold front connected the two lows and was located across the Central Plains northeast to Southwest Wisconsin late Today. Partly to mostly sunny skies were found over our area Today to the north of this low pressure system with high temperatures on the mild side for late November with 30s and 40s common across our area Today with north or west winds under 15 mph. The 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from zero to -1 degree C in Northern Minnesota to +1 to +5 degrees C in Central and Southern parts of our area. Colder air with H85 temperatures of -6 to -10 degrees C were lurking to our north This Afternoon while a mild airmass with +10 to +16 degree C H85 temps covered much of the Central and Southern Plains Today which resulted in widespread highs in the 60s/70s across those areas.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

500 mb low (552 meters) was digging south-southeast through Southern California Today per water vapor satellite imagery while a broad longwave trough was progressing south-east out of the Rockies. Widespread mid/high level moisture was evident on This Afternoon's water vapor satellite imagery across the Northern-Central Plains and Upper Midwest states or on the east side of this trough. 90-120 knot wind max extended from Central North Dakota across Northern Minnesota into Eastern Canada late Today per RUC model analysis with a 110-130 knot wind max extending from Northwest Mexico west through the Baja of California near the H5 low which was digging south through Southern California Today. The greatest height falls of 120-150 meters per 12 hours were occurring across the Southwest U.S. Today while a larger area of weaker height falls (30-60 meters) were occurring in the Northern and Central Plains.

(Tonight)

Look for skies to become mostly cloudy across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with the potential for some light snow or flurries as an upper level trough and a weak disturbance approach from the west. Snow accumulations if any should be a dusting to perhaps one half inch by dawn. Lows Tonight will be in the 20s and lower 30s with north or west winds under 15 mph.

(Sunday and Sunday Night)

Colder airmass compared to Today will be overhead during this period as 850 mb temperatures drop to around -4 to -8 degrees C which will result in mainly 30s for daytime highs on Sunday while lows Sunday Night drop into the teens and 20s. Look for partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies for Sunday and partly-mostly cloudy skies for Sunday Night. Some flurries are possible Sunday Morning otherwise this period looks mainly dry...The exception to this could be along the South Shore of Lake Superior where some lake effect snow showers may develop at times Sunday into Sunday Evening. Ashland and Iron Counties will be at greatest risk for seeing some lake effect snow. Accumulations look to be light and should remain under 2". Winds during this period will be out of the north or west at 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

A fast flow aloft will prevail into early next week with another fairly weak disturbance dropping south-east across our area on Monday. A few flurries or snow showers may accompany this system but little accumulation is expected. A stronger area of low pressure will then pass off to our west/north by mid-week while a cold front drops south and east through our area on Tuesday. Most of the precipitation associated with this storm will remain to our north for Tuesday and Wednesday but some flurries or snow showers could occur at times mainly in far Northern Minnesota both those days with some flurries also possible farther south by Wednesday. High temperatures on Monday will be mainly in the 30s with 30s and 40s expected on Tuesday. Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the 20s but some teens are possible in Northern areas especially by Tuesday Night.

Much colder air is then forecast to overspread the Upper Midwest starting the middle of next week and once it arrives it may have some staying power as reinforcing shots of cold air...Some possibly of arctic origin covers much of the U.S. aside from areas west of the Rockies and over the far Southern parts of the U.S.

The upper level flow which has been of Pacific origin more or less this whole month appears to be undergoing a huge shift in the coming days with a north or north/northwest 500 mb flow becoming established around the Upper Midwest as a polar vortex develops well to our north. This type of upper air pattern is not one that you would see with an El-Nino.

As far as snow goes...Does not appear will see much around our area anytime soon although we should start to see some ice development on some of the lakes/creeks around the area during early December.

Over the last few days some of the models had been showing the possibility for a merging weather system over the Great Lakes later next week which could've led to some accumulating snow across parts of our area. It now seems that if any merging occurs it would be well to our east keeping any meaningful snow/rain well to our southeast-east with some flurries or light snow showers at times around our area. The only exception to this could be along the South Shore of Lake Superior where there could be a lake effect snow event setting up sometime around the middle or end of next week. This would include the Counties of Bayfield...Ashland...And Iron. Some locally heavy snow totals could eventually develop later next week depending on wind direction/temperatures.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Becoming mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible. Little if any accumulation expected. Low 27 to 32. Wind north to northwest around 12 mph.

.Sunday... Flurries possible early. Considerable cloudiness. High 32 to 37. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday Night... Becoming partly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.

.Monday... Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 30 to 35.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. High 35 to 40.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 20 to 25.

.Wednesday... Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 28 to 33.

Normal High Temperature Today 29 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 14 degrees

Tim

Friday, November 27, 2009

11/27/09: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:14 PM CST, Friday, November 27th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 1998... A record high temperature of 60 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

On this date in 1985... A record low temperature of -12 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

On this date in 1994... 1.34" of precipitation and 12.4" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Source: National Weather Service, Duluth, MN.

Note: Consecutive number of days at or above 32 degrees has ended at International Falls Minnesota. The high temperature on November 26th, 2009 was 28 degrees which ended the streak at 242 straight days at or above 32 degrees. The record was 246 set in 1958 while second place occurred in 2001 with 244 days.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

It has definately turned cooler across our area over the last two days but still nothing terribly cold...But that could change by later next week. Partly-mostly cloudy skies occurred in our area Today with a tight baroclinic zone in place across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest/Western High Plains region. High temperatures ranged from the 30s across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin to the 50s and 60s over the Western High Plains and Central Plains. 850 mb temperatures as of 5 PM ranged from zero to -3 degrees C in Northeast Minnesota to +2 to +7 degrees C across Western and Southern parts of our area. Winds Today were out of the south or east under 15 mph. Weather map early This Evening featured low pressure of 1008 mb centered in Eastern South Dakota with a trough stretching from Western Ontario Province south through the Eastern Dakotas.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

West to east 500 mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest Today with a (534 meter) 500 mb low lifting north through the Northeast U.S. while an upper level trough digs south-southeast through California. Lots of mid and high level moisture was pushing east through the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains/and Central Rockies out ahead of the Western U.S. trough early This Evening per water vapor satellite imagery. 60-150 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls covered portions of the Northern Rockies and Western U.S. Today near this upper level trough.

(Tonight)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found across Northern Minnesota with low pressure remaining to our west-southwest while a trough edges east into the Upper Midwest. Lows Tonight will be in the 20s and 30s with variable winds under 15 mph.

(Saturday and Saturday Night)

Low pressure will pass south-southeast of our area during this period while a trough passes east through Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies are forecast on Saturday with mostly cloudy skies in store for Saturday Night. Some light snow or flurries are possible by Saturday Night but little if any accumulation of snow is expected at this time. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s but some 40s are possible in parts of Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 20s and lower 30s. Winds during this period will be out of the north or west under 20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

Flurries or some snow showers could linger around our area for Sunday and then dry weather is expected from Sunday Night into early next week. Highs Sunday and Monday will be mainly in the 30s with lows Sunday Night and Monday Night in the teens and 20s.

By the middle to end of next week will see an area of low pressure head east or east-southeast out of Western Canada while another area of low pressure develops near the Gulf Coast states. Some of the forecast models Today and over the last few days for that matter have been phasing these two seperate lows into one area of low pressure somewhere over the Eastern Great Lakes region later next week while an upper level trough develops across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Some measurable snow could develop around our area sometime the middle or end of next week if these systems can phase together. If the pattern remains unphased which is quite possible then we would only see some flurries or perhaps a few snow showers later next week.

The bigger weather headline could ultimately be the temperatures as it does appear that some arctic air could slip south out of Central Canada into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest later next week. 850 mb temperatures could drop into the minus teens below zero C...Which could result in daytime highs actually falling below normal for a change while Overnight lows could get close to the zero degree mark but that would be dependent on sky conditions and wind speeds. The overall trend during the first week or two of December is for a colder weather regime across the Upper Midwest with a couple arctic air outbreaks looking possible.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. Wind south to southeast under 12 mph.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. High 33 to 38. Wind becoming northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 25 to 30. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Flurries possible. Mostly cloudy. High 32 to 35.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 30 to 35.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. High 35 to 40.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 29 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 14 degrees

Tim

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

11/25/09: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:47 PM CST, Wednesday, November 25th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 1985... A record low temperature of -16 degrees occurred at the Duluth Airport.

On this date in 1993... 7.5" of snow fell at the Duluth Airport.

Weather tibits:

-Average November temperature at the Duluth Airport: 39.6 degrees thru the 24th which is 10 degrees above average.

-Average snowfall by the 25th is 12.6". Snowfall total so far this month is just 1.1" at the Duluth Airport which is 11.5" below average.

-Number of days in a row with at or above normal high temperatures at the Duluth Airport is up to 23.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Strong upper level low has been dropping south/southeast through Western and Southern Minnesota Today while low pressure of 1004 mb heads northeast out of Northern Lake Michigan toward Eastern Upper Michigan late Today. Mostly cloudy skies covered most of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today with areas of drizzle and light rain which mixed with and turned to light snow and flurries at times over parts of our area but little if any snow accumulation has been reported. Highs Today were cooler compared to the last few days but remained above normal with readings topping out in the 30s and 40s. 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from -1 to -5 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the north or northwest at 5-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Late Afternoon wind chills were down into the 20s across parts of Northern and Northeast Minnesota.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

500 mb low (540 meters) was dropping south into Northern Iowa late Today with an upper level trough covering the Upper Midwest. 60-120 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls were in place Today across parts of the Central Plains north into Southern Minnesota and Southwest Wisconsin near this upper low while a 100-110 knot upper level jet was found across the Northern Plains or on the west side of the H5 trough.

(Tonight)

Strong area of low pressure aloft will move from Northern Iowa to Southern Lake Michigan Tonight with high pressure centered to our west. Mostly cloudy skies This Evening will give way to some clearing from northwest-southeast Overnight. Areas of drizzle and light rain will mix with and turn to light snow and flurries Tonight but precipitation amounts will remain light with the better chance for precipitation occurring in Northwestern Wisconsin where a light dusting of snow may accumulate by Morning. Lows Tonight will be in the 20s to lower 30s with some teens possible in Western areas. Winds Tonight will be out of the north or northwest at 10-25 mph. Wind chills Tonight will be mainly in the teens and 20s but some single digits can't be ruled out Overnight in Western-Northwest areas.

(Thanksgiving Day and Night)

High pressure will move into the Upper Midwest during this period which will result in mainly partly cloudy and dry conditions although some lake effect snow showers or flurries could occur on Thursday along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin mainly in Bayfield...Ashland...And Iron Counties. N/NW flow at the surface and aloft combined with H85 temperatures ranging from -6 to -8 degrees C moving over Lake Superior where water temps were in the middle 30s to lower 40s could be enough to generate some lake effect snow on Thursday east of the Twin Ports. Accumulations look light at this time however. Highs Tomorrow will be mainly in the 30s with lows Tomorrow Night in the teens and 20s. Winds on Thursday will be out of the north or west under 20 mph with south or northwest winds Tomorrow Night under 15 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

High pressure will be pushing off to our east on Friday while low pressure and a cold front head east into the Upper Midwest this weekend. This system looks fairly weak at this time due to the jet streams which will remain unphased. Moisture also appears to be lacking with this system and as a result only some light snow or flurries are expected at times across Northern Minnesota from late Saturday through Sunday with flurry or light snow chances pushing farther south-east through the rest of our area toward Sunday. High temperatures Friday and Saturday will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees with lows both nights in the 20s to around 30 degrees.

Looking into next week features temperatures cooler compared to where they have been most of this month...But it still appears will have slightly above average or normal temperatures for most of next week. No big weather systems are on the horizon either.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy. Colder compared to recent nights. Drizzle mixed with light snow and flurries with precipitation ending during the Evening. Some clearing possible late. Low 25 to 30. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thanksgiving Day... Partly cloudy. High 32 to 37. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 20 to 25. Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 35 to 40.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30.

.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. High 35 to 40.

.Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 25 to 30.

.Sunday... Mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible. High 32 to 35. Chance of snow 20%.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 30 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 15 degrees

Tim

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

11/24/09: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 8:00 PM CST, Tuesday, November 24th, 2009

Note: Rainfall total from Sunday through Monday, November 22nd-23rd was 0.37" at the Duluth Airport.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

A day quite similar to the last few with generally overcast skies along with areas of fog, haze, and drizzle along with some light rain. Much above normal temperatures continued as well Today with highs mainly in the 40s. Winds Today were variable in direction at 5-15 mph. Surface map early This Evening featured an area of low pressure of 1008 mb centered in Southeastern Iowa with a 1010 mb low covering Western Ontario Province. A cold front was centered in Central Minnesota.

(This Evening's Upper Level Analysis)

One upper level low (552 meters) with -24 degree C H5 temperatures covered Central-Eastern Iowa...Southeast Minnesota...Southwest Wisconsin...Western Illinois...And Northern Missouri early This Evening with 12 hour 500 mb height falls on the order of 60-90 meters on the south/east side of this upper low. A second upper level low (540 meters) was digging south/southeast into the Northern Plains This Evening with 12 hour 500 mb height falls of 120 meters centered in Southern Saskatchewan Province per RUC model analysis. 500 mb temperatures underneath this upper level system were down to -28 to -34 degrees C. Temperatures aloft were starting too cool off some around Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Evening with 850 mb temperatures as of 6 PM ranging from +1 to -2 degrees C.

(Tonight)

Low pressure which was over Southeast Iowa early This Evening will reach Southern Wisconsin Overnight while the cold front currently in Central Minnesota heads slowly east during the night. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies around Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with areas of fog and haze. Some of the fog could be dense and may freeze on some road surfaces in Western areas Tonight thanks to some clearing which has developed in those areas early This Evening which has allowed the temperatures to drop to around or a few degrees below freezing as of 7 PM. Lows Tonight will be in the 20s and 30s but some locations in Northwest Wisconsin will remain in the lower 40s. Look for areas of light rain and drizzle Tonight as well...Mainly in Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast-Eastcentral areas of Minnesota. Some additional precipitation coming in the form of snow or rain may also reach Western parts of our area later Tonight thanks to the strong upper level system dropping south-east out North Dakota. Winds Tonight will be out of the south, east, or northwest under 15 mph.

(Wednesday and Wednesday Night)

Low pressure will track from Southern Wisconsin to Northern Lower Michigan during this period while an upper level low digs south/southeast through Western-Southern parts of Minnesota. Areas of rain will occur Tomorrow in Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast-Eastern Minnesota but as colder temperatures work into these areas and thickness values drop we should see some snow start to mix with the rain especially in Northeast and Eastern Minnesota. Western-Northwestern areas in Minnesota should see some snow showers and flurries at times on Wednesday with a dusting to an inch of accumulation possible. By Wednesday Night expect some snow showers and flurries over most of our area with accumulations of an inch or less expected. This weather system will not be a very big snow producer for our area but there could be just enough snow to cause some slippery travel in spots especially by Wednesday Evening/Overnight. Mostly cloudy skies are expected on Wednesday with partly-mostly cloudy skies for Wednesday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s and 30s. Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 10-25 mph during this period.

(Extended Forecast)

Could see some lingering flurries Thanksgiving Morning across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with a threat for some lake effect snow showers on Thursday along the South Shore of Lake Superior...Mainly in Ashland/Iron Counties where a north-northwest wind along with -6 to -8 degree C 850 mb temperatures could help in generating some lake snow east of the Twin Ports. Snow accumulations of an inch or two could occur on Thursday around Hurley...Upson...Montreal...And Odanah... Dry weather should return area-wide by Thursday Night as high pressure settles into the Upper Midwest. Highs on Thursday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Thursday Night in the teens and 20s...Definately chillier by Thursday but still nothing too terribly cold for late November standards. The Friday and Friday Night period looks dry at this time with highs in the 30s to around 40 degrees with lows generally in the 20s.

Saturday Night through Monday could feature some snow showers and flurries at times over our area as low pressure passes through the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region while a cold front and upper level trough pass through the area this weekend. Right now this system doesn't look very strong since energy in the Southern jet and Northern jet remain un-phased but we could see a dusting up to an inch of snow in spots by early next week. A stronger more developed storm can't be ruled out just yet but this threat is fairly low right now.

It still appears that December will begin on a cold note but no big winter weather events are anticipated at this time for our local area. It will be interesting to see how long the cold air will stick around for...If it does build south into our area in early December. It's quite possible that milder Pacific air will bathe the Upper Midwest once again by mid-December...If not sooner.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Drizzle and light rain at times along with some fog and haze. Cloudy. Low 34 to 37. Wind variable under 10 mph becoming northwest at 5 to 15 mph toward dawn. Chance of rain 50%.

.Wednesday... Light rain and drizzle which will mix with snow at times. Mostly cloudy. High 37 to 41. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 60%.

.Wednesday Night... Occasional snow showers and flurries which could mix with light rain or drizzle early. Little if any snow accumulation expected. Mostly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. Chance of precipitation 40%.

.Thanksgiving Day... Flurries possible during the Morning. Partly sunny. High 30 to 35.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 32 to 37.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 23 to 28.

.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. High 35 to 40.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 30 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 16 degrees

Tim

Monday, November 23, 2009

11/23/09: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:17 PM CST, Monday, November 23rd, 2009

Following headline issued by the National Weather Service, Duluth, Minnesota.

*Dense Fog Advisory*

*Dense Fog Advisory* in effect until 10 AM CST Tuesday for the following Counties in the Duluth area. Cook MN...Lake MN...Central and Southern St. Louis MN...Southern Itasca MN...Carlton MN...And Douglas WI... Some cities included in the advisory are: Grand Marais MN...Silver Bay MN...Two Harbors MN...Duluth MN...Floodwood MN...Cotton MN...Hibbing MN...Grand Rapids MN...Cloquet MN...Moose Lake MN...Superior WI...And Solon Springs WI...

Areas of dense fog will continue to develop in the advisory area through Tuesday Morning thanks to a very humid and mild airmass in place out ahead of a frontal boundary in Western Minnesota. Visibilities will drop to a quarter mile or less at times Tonight and Tuesday Morning. Highways 53...61...2 along with Interstate 35 will be impacted by the fog.

A dense fog advisory means visibilities will be reduced to less than a quarter mile in some locations. Rapid changes in visibility from a few miles to only a few hundred feet may occur in very short distances. If you are driving...Slow down...Use your low beam headlights and be prepared for the sudden loss of visibility as you enter fog banks.

Weather History:

On this date in 1983... 1.64" of precipitation and 16.5" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather tidbits:

Source: National Weather Service, Duluth, Minnesota.

Today marks the 236th consecutive day above freezing at the Duluth Airport. The record is 257 set way back in 1878. The last time the high temperature failed to get above 32 degrees was on March 28th, 2009 with a high on that day of 28 degrees. The record probably will not be broken though as colder temperatures begin to build into our area and the possibility for staying below freezing for high temperatures is becoming more likely especially by next week.

Today marks the 240th consecutive day above freezing at International Falls Minnesota. The record is 246 set in 1958. The last time the high temperature failed to get above freezing at International Falls was back on March 28th, 2009 with a high on that day of 31 degrees.

November 2009 could go down as one of the top 5 warmest Novembers on record at the Duluth Airport. As of November 22nd, the average monthly temperature was 39.3 degrees which is 9.2 degrees above normal. The warmest November on record occurred in 1899 with an average monthly temperature of 40.6 degrees. 2nd warmest occurred in 2001 with an average temperature of 39.5 degrees followed by 1999 and 1931 with an average monthly temperature of 36.1 degrees and rounding out the top 5 was 1923 with an average monthly temperature of 35.9 degrees.

Rainfall total at the Duluth Airport through 6 AM CST Today: 0.20"

Note: Monday Morning's low temperature of 43 degrees was 26 degrees above normal for the 23rd of November.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

A stationary front was draped from far Northern to Western Minnesota This Afternoon. Areas of rain continued to develop Today near and out ahead of this frontal boundary across Northcentral...Northeast...and Eastcentral Minnesota as well as in parts of Northwest Wisconsin. Haze and fog were also a problem over parts of our area Today with the thickest fog occurring near Lake Superior. High temperatures Today were in the 40s with some 50s in Southern parts of Northwest Wisconsin. 850 mb temperatures as of 5 PM ranged from +1 to +5 degrees C. Mostly cloudy skies covered our area Today with south, east, or north winds under 15 mph.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Southwest flow aloft continued around the Upper Midwest Today with an upper level trough centered across the Northern-Westcentral High Plains.

(Tonight)

Stationary front will remain off to our west-northwest with hazy/foggy conditions along with areas of drizzle and rain occurring across our area out ahead of this boundary. Overcast skies with lows in the 30s and 40s can be expected Tonight with winds out of the south, east, or north under 15 mph.

(Tuesday and Tuesday Night)

Stationary front will begin to edge east as a cold front during this period while low pressure at the surface and aloft head northeast out of the Central Plains. Mostly cloudy skies are forecast across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin during this period. Fog should become less of a problem on Tuesday but areas of rain will continue across parts of our area through Tuesday Night. Some snow may start to mix with the rain in Western-Northwest parts of our area by late Tuesday Night as enough cooling may take place to allow some frozen precipitation by that time. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s with some 50s possible once again in Southern parts of Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 20s and 30s. Winds during this period will be out of the south, east, or north under 20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

Low pressure at the surface and aloft will track northeast into the Central Great Lakes region from Wednesday into Thursday while a rather potent upper level low dives southeast out of the Northern Plains through the Upper Midwest and eventually phasing together somewhat with the system heading northeast out of the Plains.

Colder air and lowering thickness values will cause lingering areas of rain to mix with and turn to snow showers and flurries across our area for Wednesday and Wednesday Night with some lingering flurries or snow showers possible on Thanksgiving Day.

Snowfall amounts should be light and generally range from a dusting to perhaps an inch or two at most the way it looks now with Southern-Eastern areas having the best chance at possibly seeing a white Thanksgiving.

The risk for some lake effect snow also exists along the South Shore of Lake Superior for Thursday and Thursday Night with some snow accumulation possible in Bayfield...Ashland...And Iron Counties.

High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be mainly in the 30s but some 40s can't be ruled out in Eastern areas on Wednesday. Lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.

The period from late this weekend into early next week will have to be watched for a possible system that could bring some measurable snow to portions of our area...But there are plenty of model issues at this time regarding timing...track...intensity of a system which could take shape in the Central Plains or across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest by that time.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*Dense Fog Advisory* until 10 AM CST Tuesday.

.Tonight... Fog which will be dense at times. Unseasonably mild. Cloudy with light rain and drizzle at times. Low 40 to 44. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday... Fog during the Morning which could be dense at times. Overcast with light rain and drizzle at times. High 44 to 47. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Occasional light rain possible. Low 34 to 36. Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Wednesday... Mostly cloudy. Occasional light rain possible which could become mixed with snow. High 36 to 39. Chance of precipitation 40%.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible. Low 25 to 30. Chance of snow 40%.

.Thanksgiving Day... Flurries possible during the Morning. Partly sunny. High 30 to 35.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 22 to 27.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 32 to 37.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 31 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 16 degrees

Tim

Sunday, November 22, 2009

11/22/09: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:52 PM CST, Sunday, November 22nd, 2009

Following headline issued by the National Weather Service, Duluth, Minnesota.

*Dense Fog Advisory*

*Dense Fog Advisory* is in effect for parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin until 3 PM CST Monday. Counties in the Duluth area included in the advisory are: Cook MN...Lake MN...Southern St. Louis MN...Carlton MN...And Douglas WI... Some cities included in the advisory are: Grand Marais MN...Silver Bay MN...Two Harbors MN...Duluth MN...Moose Lake MN...Superior WI...And Solon Springs WI...

Areas of dense fog will become more widespread across the advisory area Tonight through Monday especially along the Higher Terrain near Lake Superior. Visibilities will lower to one quarter mile or less at times.

Highways 53 and 61 along with Interstate 35 will be impacted by the fog.

A dense fog advisory means visibilities will be reduced to less than a quarter mile in some locations. Rapid changes in visibility from a few miles to only a few hundred feet may occur over very short distances. If you are driving...Slow down...Use your low beam headlights and be preapred for the sudden loss of visibility and you enter fog banks.

Weather History:

On this date in 2006... A record high temperature of 52 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

One year ago Today the Morning low temperature at the Duluth Airport was 8 degrees. Tonight's low temperature is forecast to remain in the lower 40s!

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Cold front has pretty much stalled out as expected across Central Minnesota early This Evening. A moist airmass was in place near this boundary with dewpoints up into the lower and middle 40s across Northwest Wisconsin and most of Eastern Minnesota along with PWS of .60"-.70" as of 5 PM. Cloudy skies prevailed Today with areas of haze/fog/and light drizzle along with areas of light rain which have been developing at times in parts of Northwest Wisconsin and parts of Northeast Minnesota. Highs Today were generally in the 40s and 50s with 850 mb temperatures as of 5 PM ranging +1 to +5 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the north, south, or east under 15 mph.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Southwest flow aloft was in place across the Upper Midwest early This Evening per RUC model analysis. An upper level low (540 meters) was moving east-southeast across Northern Idaho with 60 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls occurring near this system. Also of note is the 100-120 knot wind max across parts of the Pacific Northwest late Today or on the west-southwest side of the upper low.

(Tonight through Monday Night)

Look for a stationary front to remain draped more or less across Westcentral into Northcentral Minnesota during this period. Airmass near this front will be characterized by dewpoints in the 30s and 40s with PWS of .50"-.75". The high moisture content in the air will lead to areas of fog and haze with some of the fog turning dense at times. Areas of drizzle will also occur along with some occasional rain. Overcast skies will prevail through Tomorrow Night with lows Tonight and Monday Night in the 30s and 40s with highs Monday in the 40s with some 50s possible in Southern areas while some locales in the far West-Northwest stay a few degrees shy of 40. Winds during this period will be out of the south, north, or east under 20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

Stationary front currently to our west-northwest will turn into a cold front and this front will move through our area from Tuesday Afternoon into Wednesday. Meanwhile one upper level low and surface low will take shape across the Central Plains early this week while additional energy dives southeast out of Western Canada which will help in creating another upper level low across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest by mid-week. Both of these features should phase together to some extent by Wednesday/Thursday across the Central Great Lakes region.

Temperatures look warm enough through Tuesday Evening where any precipitation that falls across our area would remain as rain. Highs Tuesday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Tuesday Night in the 20s and 30s.

The Wednesday/early Thursday time period will feature some rain which will mix with and turn over to some snow showers and flurries as enough cooling develops from surface to aloft around the upper low/surface low to our south-east. Some locations within our area could pick up a dusting to perhaps an inch or two of snow from Wednesday into early Thursday. There could also be some lake effect snow showers that develop along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin by Thursday as north winds and cooler air moves over the relatively mild waters across Lake Superior.

High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Wednesday Night in the 20s and 30s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*Dense Fog Advisory* in effect until 3 PM CST Monday.

.Tonight... Fog which will be dense at times. Occasional drizzle and light rain. Cloudy. Unseasonably mild. Low 40 to 45. Wind south to southeast around 12 mph.

.Monday... Fog which will be dense at times. Occasional light rain and drizzle. Cloudy. High 45 to 50. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

.Monday Night... Areas of fog and drizzle with some light rain at times. Cloudy. Low 38 to 42. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

.Tuesday... Cloudy. Light rain possible at times. High 42 to 45. Chance of rain 50%.

.Tuesday Night... Cloudy. Light rain possible. Low 34 to 36. Chance of rain 40%.

.Wednesday... Mostly cloudy. Light rain possible which could become mixed with snow. High 36 to 39. Chance of precipitation 40%.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible. Low 25 to 30. Chance of snow 40%.

.Thanksgiving Day... Flurries possible during the Morning. Partly sunny. High 30 to 35.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 31 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 17 degrees

Tim

Saturday, November 21, 2009

11/21/09: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:13 PM CST, Saturday, November 21st, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 1990... A record high temperature of 64 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

On this date last year the high temperature at the Duluth Airport was 19 degrees with a Morning low of 5 degrees.

Note: Cold start to the day for parts of our area thanks to mainly clear skies and light winds...Here are some low temperatures that occurred from earlier Today around Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Hibbing MN: 14 degrees

Grand Marais MN: 14 degrees

Ely MN: 14 degrees

Hayward WI: 19 degrees

Superior WI: 21 degrees

Embarrass MN: 9 degrees

Crane Lake MN: 14 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

High pressure of 1022 mb was centered near the Ohio Valley late Today while strong low pressure of 990 mb was moving into far Western Manitoba Province early This Evening. A cold front extended southwest of that low and was moving into the Central Dakotas late Today. A southerly flow along with mild temperatures were found across our area Today with daytime highs in the 40s and lower 50s. Partly-mostly sunny skies prevailed for most areas although areas of fog and low clouds lingered at times in Southeast parts of Northwest Wisconsin as well as in the Arrowhead of Minnesota while most areas also saw some haze Today. 850 mb temperatures as 4 PM were right around +4 to +6 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the south or southeast generally around 20 mph or less.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

H5 ridge (564 meters) was shifting east out of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes This Evening while an upper level trough with 60-90 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls shifts south-east across the Northern-Central Rockies east into the Northern Plains. A 100 knot upper level jet was in place per RUC model analysis on the backside of this H5 trough in Western Idaho-Eastern Oregon late This Afternoon with upper level lows found in Southwestern Saskatchewan Province and in Southwestern Wyoming.

(Tonight through Sunday Night)

The cold front currently in the Central Dakotas will head east but will likely stall out as it moves into Northeast-Central Minnesota by Sunday Afternoon/Night. Southerly winds along and ahead of this boundary will draw moisture north into our area as PWS increase from around .30" This Afternoon toward .50"-.75" by Sunday Afternoon while dewpoints climb into the 40s in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota on Sunday. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with generally mostly cloudy skies expected for Sunday-Sunday Night. Low clouds along with areas of fog/haze/and drizzle will likely become more widespread across most of our area during this period and some areas of light rain could also develop Sunday and Sunday Night mainly across Northwest Wisconsin...Northeast-Eastern Minnesota with rain totals through Sunday Night generally under 0.05". Lows Tonight and Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s and 40s with highs Tomorrow in the 40s and 50s. Winds will be out of the south, east, or north under 20 mph during this period.

(Extended Forecast)

An upper level trough will progress through the Upper Midwest during the early to mid part of next week while the cold front which will move into Northern Minnesota on Sunday finally settles south-east out of our area by Tuesday Night. A rather strong upper level low along with an area of surface low pressure will be found in the Central Plains early next week with this H5 low/surface low shifting east-northeast toward the Central-Eastern Great Lakes region around mid-week.

Look for areas of rain around Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Monday and Tuesday with highs both days in the 30s and 40s but some 50s are possible in Southern parts of our area especially on Monday. Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the 30s and 40s but some 20s are possible in Western areas by Tuesday Night.

As temperatures cool and heights and thicknesses begin to lower we should see some of the rain start to mix with snow from west to east across our area during the Tuesday Night-late Wednesday time period...However at this time it does not appear that this system will bring much accumulating snow to our area...But some locales could pick up a dusting to perhaps an inch or two of snow by Wednesday Evening.

Late next week looks seasonable with mainly dry weather expected. Highs will be running a good 10-20 degrees colder than what we have seen most of this month but the high temps later next week will be more typical of late November and no arctic intrustions are expected through late next week.

Early December continues to look chilly but no major storm systems are on the horizon anytime soon...

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear with skies becoming mostly cloudy during the night. Some haze or fog possible. Low 35 to 40. Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Mostly cloudy. Areas of haze...fog...and drizzle possible along with some light rain at times. High 45 to 50. Wind south at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

.Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog...drizzle...and light rain possible. Low 37 to 42. Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

.Monday... Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog possible along with some rain at times. High 42 to 45. Chance of rain 60%.

.Monday Night... Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. Low 37 to 41. Chance of rain 60%.

.Tuesday... Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. High 41 to 44. Chance of rain 50%.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Rain possible which could mix with snow. Low 30 to 33. Chance of precipitation 40%.

.Wednesday... Mostly cloudy. Rain or snow possible. High 33 to 35. Chance of precipitation 40%.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 31 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 17 degrees

Tim

Friday, November 20, 2009

11/20/09: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:23 PM CST, Friday, November 20th, 2009

Note: One year ago Today the high temperature at the Duluth Airport was 22 degrees with a Morning low temperature of 9 degrees.

Number of days during the month of November with a high temperature at or below 32 degrees at the Duluth Airport. Data from the NWS, Duluth, Minnesota.

November 2009: 0 up thru the 20th

November 2008: 17 days

November 2007: 12 days

November 2006: 9 days

November 2005: 7 days

November 2004: 5 days

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Another day of unusually mild temperatures across our area with daytime highs topping out in the 40s and 50s. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +3 to +5 degrees C. Sunshine covered all of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Afternoon with low clouds and fog which developed earlier in the day burning off around or a couple hours after sunrise. Surface map late This Afternoon featured a 1020-1022 mb high pressure ridge to our south-southeast.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

500 mb low (546 meters) has opened up and was moving through Southern Quebec Province This Afternoon...This is the same low that was near Chicago Illinois 24 hours ago. A west-northwest flow aloft was in place Today in the Upper Midwest behind this low to our east. An H5 ridge (558-570 meters) extended from the Northern Plains to the Western High Plains Today while an upper level trough (534 meters) tracks east through the Pacific Northwest along with 90-150 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls west of the Rockies.

(Tonight)

Clear-mostly clear skies will prevail in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with areas of low clouds and fog developing later in the night. Some of the fog could freeze on road surfaces which could lead to some slippery travel early Tomorrow Morning. Lows Tonight will be in the 20s and 30s but a few of the traditional cold spots could dip into the teens. Winds Tonight will be out of the south or west under 15 mph.

(Saturday and Saturday Night)

Areas of low clouds and fog will dissipate Tomorrow Morning leaving behind mostly sunny skies across our area with high temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Look for southerly winds from 10-20 mph. A cold front currently in the Pacific Northwest will track east and is expected to reach the Northern Plains later Tomorrow Night. A southwest 850 mb jet will increase to 30-45 knots along and ahead of this boundary across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest come Saturday Night and this low level jet will help in bringing some moisture north into our area and this could result in the formation of some low level cloudiness/areas of fog-drizzle spreading from south to north across our area beginning late Tomorrow Night. Lows Saturday Night will be mainly in the 30s but a few locales could drop into the 20s especially in the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Winds Tomorrow Night will be out of the south or southeast at 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

A cold front will be passing through our area Sunday and Monday. Could see some light rain/drizzle/and areas of fog near and ahead of this front across our area for Sunday and Monday but rain totals should be on the light side the way it looks now...Generally under one tenth of an inch. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Sunday Night in the 30s and 40s. Highs on Monday will be in the 30s and 40s but some 50s are possible mainly in Southern parts of our area. Lows Monday Night will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees.

Today's forecast models continue to indicate an upper level trough progressing east out of the Western U.S. during the early to mid part of next week while low pressure takes shape across the Plains early next week. The exact track/intensity/timing of this low are far from certain at this time but one thing that the models seem to be showing is a lack of cold air with this system and as a result we could see more of a rain event versus a snow maker for most of our area during the early to mid part of next week. With all that said it still does appear will see some sort of a rain changing to snow scenario develop at some-point between Tuesday/Wednesday across our area but it's far too early to try to indicate how much snow could fall and what area/s could see some sticking snow next week with this system.

Another low pressure system may develop and target our area sometime next weekend or early the following week which could bring more snow or rain to parts of our area.

The trend toward colder temperatures continues Today with the extended GFS model...In fact the early stages of December could be quite cold around the Upper Midwest especially if the polar vortex sets up near Hudson Bay which would result in a more amplified northerly to north-northwest upper level flow pattern across the Upper Midwest.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Clear. Areas of fog developing late. Low 26 to 31. Wind southwest around 12 mph.

.Saturday... Areas of fog early. Mostly sunny. High 48 to 53. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night... Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 40. Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Mostly cloudy. Light rain possible. High 43 to 48. Chance of rain 30%.

.Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy. Light rain possible. Low 35 to 40. Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday... Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. High 40 to 45. Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday Night... Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. Low 35 to 38. Chance of rain 40%.

.Tuesday... Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. High 38 to 43. Chance of rain 40%.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 32 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 18 degrees

Tim

Thursday, November 19, 2009

11/19/09: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:01 PM CST, Thursday, November 19th, 2009

Note: Parts of the Western U.S. were affected by a fireball in the night sky yesterday. A small asteroid hit the earth's atmosphere per Infrasound recordings, exploding with an energy of 0.5-1.0 kilton of TNT at around Midnight MST on Wednesday, November 18th, 2009. Witnesses in Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho say the fireball "turned night into day" and issued shock waves that "shook the ground" when it exploded just after Midnight MST. The fireball was so bright it actually turned the night sky noontime blue. Experts liken this event to the Park Forest fireball of 2003, which scattered dozens of meteorites across a suburb of Chicago. Source: spaceweather.com

Note: The sun is crackling Today with two sunspots (1032 and 1033) Sunspot 1032 could be the reincarnation of old sunspot 1029. Source: spaceweather.com

Note: Changes in the weather look likely next week and perhaps into early December. This change could bring some bouts of sticking snow to the Twin Ports starting next week and lasting into early December along with more typical temperatures for this time of year.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Weak low pressure of 1014 mb was centered near Green Bay Wisconsin late This Afternoon with a slightly stronger low of 1008 mb centered along the Northern Ontario Province-Southern Hudson Bay area with a cold front attached to that low trailing southwest through Western Ontario Province and the Eastern Dakotas. A little bit of light rain has been falling at times Today across Eastern parts of Northwest Wisconsin...Mainly over Iron...Price...And the Eastern part of Ashland County but rain totals have been very light generally and generally under 0.05"...Some additional light rain shower activity has been developing This Afternoon across the Arrowhead of Minnesota but this wasn't amounting to very much either. Areas of fog some of it dense along with patchy drizzle affected portions of Northeast Minnesota This Morning but the fog did burn off This Afternoon with even some sunshine occurring from time to time especially in Western-Southern parts of our area. High temperatures Today were mainly in the 40s with 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranging from +2 to +5 degrees C. Winds Today were variable under 15 mph.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

500 mb low (552 meters) was centered over the Southern Great Lakes/Western Ohio Valley region late Today per RUC model analysis/water vapor satellite imagery. It has taken this upper level low since November 16th to move from the Central Plains to near Chicago Illinois thanks to the stronger winds aloft confined to the Pacific Northwest. An area of 60-90 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls were occurring Today north-east of this upper low from Central Canada south through the Great Lakes and Northern parts of the Ohio Valley. A new storm system was taking shape Today across New Mexico with a shortwave trough covering the Southwest U.S. with this system pushing off toward the east-southeast. Meanwhile additional storm systems are heading into Western Canada and the Pacific Northwest.

(Tonight)

Weak surface low near Green Bay Wisconsin will head northeast with the upper level low near Chicago Illinois tracking east-northeast. Areas of light rain and drizzle will occur on the backside of this system before Midnight Tonight across Iron...Ashland...And Price Counties in Wisconsin while some other light rain showers affecting far Northeast Minnesota. The cold front which was moving into the Red River Valley region of Northwest Minnesota late This Afternoon will be weakening Tonight as it tracks east into our area, this front should come through dry although some areas of fog could develop across our area along and out ahead of this cold front. Lows Tonight will be in the 30s but some locales could slip into the 20s mainly in Northern Minnesota. Winds Tonight will be variable in direction under 15 mph.

(Friday and Friday Night)

Cold front will pretty much wash out over our area on Friday. Any patchy fog that forms Tonight should burn off Friday Morning with partly-mostly sunny skies then occurring on Friday with partly cloudy skies for Friday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 40s to lower 50s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s and 30s. Winds will be out of the west or southwest at 10-20 mph during this period.

(Extended Forecast)

A cold front is forecast to move east through Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Sunday into early Monday. Southwesterly low level jet of 30-40 knots is forecast to develop ahead of this front for Saturday and Saturday Night which should help in keeping temperatures on the mild side but this low level jet could also help in bringing a bit of moisture north into our area which may lead to some fog/drizzle issues by Sunday. High temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be mainly in the 40s but some 50s are expected on Saturday. Lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the 30s with a few locales possibly staying in the low 40s Saturday Night.

By early next week it's expected that Sunday's cold front will settle south-east of our local area while an upper level trough and possible low pressure system pushes east out of the Western U.S. The exact track and timing as well as the strength of the upper trough/surface system remain in doubt at this time but this system will need to be watched in the coming days as it could bring some accumulating snowfall to portions of our area sometime during the early to mid part of next week.

There is also another system that could hit parts of our area later next week or next weekend which could bring more snow or mixed precipitation to our area.

Overall it does appear that the weather pattern could be changing by next week and this pattern change could linger into early December. Some of the recent GFS model runs have shown a rather amplified north or northwest 500 mb flow developing which could help in eventually bringing down a lobe of the true arctic airmass (temps as low as 40 degrees below zero) which has been sitting over parts of Alaska and Northwest Canada over the recent days. This pattern if it develops would not be typical of an El-Nino pattern since we would see more of a northerly flow aloft versus a westerly one...In other words the GFS model could be over doing things just a bit and we may end up with a progressive pattern meaning shots of cold air offset by bouts of mild weather with the true arctic air bottled up to our north-northwest.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of fog possible. Low 30 to 35. Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday... Patchy fog possible early. Partly cloudy. High 45 to 50. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 27 to 32. Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 45 to 50.

.Saturday Night... Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.

.Sunday... Mostly cloudy. Light rain possible. High 42 to 47. Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy. Light rain possible. Low 30 to 35. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday... Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. High 40 to 45. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 33 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 19 degrees

Tim

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

11/18/09: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:52 PM CST, Wednesday, November 18th, 2009

November 2009 weather stats for Duluth, MN. Data up thru the 17th.

-Monthly average temperature 39.4 degrees which is 8.0 degrees above normal

-Number of days in a row with at or above normal high temperatures: 15 and climbing

-Monthly precipitation total: 0.76" which is 0.61" below normal as of the 18th.

-Monthly snowfall total: 1.1" which is 7.3" below normal as of the 18th

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Sunshine and above normal temperatures prevailed for yet another day around our area. High temperatures were mainly in the 40s to lower 50s with 850 mb temperatures as of 6 PM ranging from +5 to +7 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the south or east under 20 mph. Surface map This Evening featured low pressure of 1016 mb centered in Northeast Missouri. A cold front extended from Eastern Saskatchewan Province to Western North Dakota to Central Wyoming with low pressure of 1012 mb centered in Western South Dakota.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

A large 500 mb low (552 meters) was lifting north-northeast out of Central Missouri-Southeast Iowa-and Southern/Central Illinois. Plenty of mid and high level moisture was evident on water vapor imagery spreading north-west into the Great Lakes This Evening on the north side of this upper level low. Stronger winds aloft were in place across the Pacific Northwest and Western Canada This Evening with a strong weather system affecting British Columbia and parts of Washington state and Oregon.

(Tonight through Thursday Night)

Low pressure over Northeast Missouri This Evening will lift north-northeast into the Central Great Lakes region during this period while an upper level low heads east-northeast toward the Southern Great Lakes. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are expected in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with areas of fog possible. Mostly cloudy conditions are forecast Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night. Some spotty light rain showers or drizzle could spread west-north into portions of Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota later Tonight and Tomorrow but rain totals should not amount to much more than a trace or a few hundreths of an inch at best. Dry weather is then expected area-wide by Thursday Night. Lows Tonight and Tomorrow Night will be in the 20s and 30s with highs Tomorrow generally in the 40s. Winds Tonight will be out of the south or east under 20 mph. Winds Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night will be out of the east, north, or west under 20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

Dry weather is expected for Friday and Saturday with high temperatures both days mainly in the 40s to around 50 degrees with lows both nights in the 20s and 30s. A cold front is forecast to shift east out of the Northern Plains and will pass through the Upper Midwest later this weekend and early next week. This boundary could bring a little bit of rain to parts of our area during the Sunday-Tuesday time period with the possibility for some of the rain to mix with or turn to snow early next week. Precipitation totals with this system look very light at this time. Looking ahead toward the middle and the end of next week features mainly storm free conditions for our local area with temperatures around seasonal normals.

It should be noted that the GEM-GLOBAL/ECM are showing a rather deep upper level trough pushing east out of the Western U.S. sometime during the middle or end of next week with a possible storm system taking shape somewhere in the Southern or Central Plains. This will be something to keep an eye on with future model runs during the next several days to see if this trend continues and to see if any such system would make a move toward the Upper Midwest or if it would stay well to our south-east later next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly cloudy with clouds increasing through the night. Patchy fog possible. Low 30 to 35. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Mostly cloudy. Light rain is possible at times. High 40 to 45. Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. High 40 to 45.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 45 to 50.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 32 to 37.

.Sunday... Mostly cloudy. High 42 to 47.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 33 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 19 degrees

Tim

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

11/17/09: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:59 PM CST, Tuesday, November 17th, 2009

Clear skies and nearly calm winds in place resulted in some rather chilly low temperatures This Morning around Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Areas of dense fog also formed This Morning with some of the fog freezing on road surfaces which resulted in some slippery travel through mid-Morning Today. Here are some low temperatures from earlier Today.

Hibbing MN: 13 degrees

Ely MN: 16 degrees

Moose Lake MN: 18 degrees

Hayward WI: 14 degrees

Superior WI: 19 degrees

Duluth MN (Airport) 21 degrees

Embarrass MN: 13 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: 17 degrees

2 miles South of Tower MN: 17 degrees

Upson WI: 15 degrees

Butternut WI: 17 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Sunny skies and another day with above normal high temperatures across our area with highs generally in the 40s to near 50 degrees along with south or east winds of 5-15 mph. 850 mb temperatures as of 6 PM ranged from +5 to +9 degrees C. High pressure of 1032 mb was centered in Eastern Canada This Evening with a 1022-1026 mb high pressure ridge extending west into the Upper Great Lakes.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

552 meter H5 low was centered over the Southeast Missouri-Southern Illinois area This Evening per water vapor satellite imagery/RUC model analysis with an area of 60 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls occurring over a small part of Southern Illinois...Southern Indiana...And Northern Kentucky. A potent upper level trough was centered in the Pacific Northwest This Evening with strong 120-140 knot upper level winds in place from Western Canada into Washington State/Oregon along with an area of 60 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls covering parts of Western Canada and the Northwest/Western U.S.

(Tonight through Wednesday Night)

Upper level low will remain well to our southeast during this period while low pressure of 1012 mb near St. Louis Missouri early This Evening drifts north-northeast through Tomorrow Night. High pressure will remain in control of our weather Tonight and Tomorrow which will result in mainly clear skies Tonight and partly cloudy-sunny skies on Wednesday. Clouds will start to increase however from south to north especially by Wednesday Night. Another chilly night is in store for Tonight as lows drop into the teens and 20s with a few locales holding a few degrees above or below 32 degrees closer to Lake Superior. Highs Tomorrow will be mainly in the 40s to around 50 degrees with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s and 30s. South or east winds are expected through Tomorrow Night under 20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

Upper level low looks like it will track farther south-east than what was expected 24 hours ago but the weak surface low over Eastern Missouri This Evening will continue to track toward the Central Great Lakes on Thursday. Clouds will be more widespread across our area on Thursday compared to recent days as this weak system pushes north-northeast nto the Central Great Lakes. Some spotty light rain could also spread north-west into portions of Northwestern Wisconsin/Eastcentral-Northeast Minnesota on Thursday. Once this system moves out a return to tranquil weather conditions can be expected for Friday and Saturday. The next cold front and area of low pressure to affect our weather will occur during the Sunday-Tuesday time period with the possibility for some rain which could mix with or even turn to some snow at some point early next week...Any precipitation that does fall looks to remain on the light side however.

High temperatures for Thursday and Friday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows both nights in the 20s and 30s.

No big weather systems are expected at this time around the Upper Midwest through next week although temperatures will be a tad cooler...Especially the daytime highs as we head through next week, although it does not appear that will see any big slugs of cold/arctic air dropping south into our area anytime soon.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Clear. Patchy fog possible. Low 23 to 28. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Patchy fog possible early. Mostly sunny. High 43 to 48. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Mostly cloudy. Light rain possible. High 40 to 45. Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Light rain possible. Low 30 to 35. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. High 40 to 45.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 42 to 47.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 34 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 19 degrees

Tim

Monday, November 16, 2009

11/16/09: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:15 PM CST, Monday, November 16th, 2009

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Strong high pressure of 1026 mb was centered near Hibbing Minnesota or in the Northeast part of Minnesota early This Evening. Sunshine and above normal high temperatures occurred Today in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with highs topping out mainly in the 40s to around 50 degrees. 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +1 to +3 degrees C with most of the U.S. aside from a pocket of cold air in the Central Plains and Northeast Canada seeing H85 temperatures above zero degrees C. Winds Today were variable at 5-15 mph.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

500 mb low (552 meters) was centered along the Northeast Oklahoma/Southeast Kansas area with 60-120 meter 12 hour H5 height falls occurring from Central Missouri to Northeast Texas. Strongest upper level winds Today were confined to the Pacific Northwest extending east through most of Canada while weaker winds aloft were found across the U.S. This type of weather pattern is quite rare for mid-November.

(Tonight through Tuesday Night)

High pressure will be in control of our weather through this period while a strong upper level low remains well to our south-southeast. Chilly nights but milder than average daytime highs can be expected with this type of weather pattern across our area. Look for clear-mostly clear skies Tonight and Tuesday Night with mostly sunny skies on Tuesday. Lows Tonight and Tomorrow Night will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees but teens are likely in the traditional cold spots where some patchy fog could also develop at times. Winds will be out of the south or east under 20 mph through this period.

(Extended Forecast)

The upper level low which was over Northeast Oklahoma Today will lift north-northeast toward the Central Great Lakes region from mid to late week. This upper low could bring some light rain to parts of Northwest Wisconsin...Eastcentral and Northeast Minnesota especially by Thursday-early Friday. High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be mainly in the 40s but some locales could hold in the 30s on Thursday depending on the extent of clouds/precipitation underneath the upper level low. Low temperatures Wednesday Night and Thursday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Clear. Low 23 to 28. Wind variable around 10 mph.

.Tuesday... Sunny. High 43 to 48. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Clear. Low 25 to 30.

.Wednesday... Partly sunny. High 40 to 45.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.

.Thursday... Mostly cloudy. Light rain possible. High 40 to 45. Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. High 40 to 45.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 34 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 20 degrees

Tim

Saturday, November 14, 2009

11/14/09: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 8:04 PM CST, Saturday, November 14th, 2009

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Low pressure of 1006 mb was located on the Northwestern shores of Lake Superior...Near Isle Royal as of 7 PM CST. This low pressure system was responsible in producing rain across Northcentral...Northeast...and Eastcentral Minnesota last night and at times through Today with rain amounts generally in the one quarter to one half inch range but some locales did receive heavier totals of up to an inch. Lesser amounts of rain fell in Northwestern Wisconsin. Colder air pushing southeast on the backside of the low caused the rain to turn to snow Today in parts of Northern Minnesota with a snowfall total of 3.0" reported as of 6:15 PM CST at Kabetogama Minnesota in St. Louis County. Mostly cloudy skies covered our area Today with high temperatures in the 30s and 40s but a few spots in Northwest Wisconsin made it to around 50 degrees. 850 mb temperatures as of 6 PM ranged from -1 to -5 degrees C so some pretty good cold air advection was occurring over our area This Evening behind this area of low pressure. Winds Today were out of the north or west at 5-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Rather strong 500 mb low (540 meters) was moving east-northeast through Northern Minnesota-Southern Ontario Province This Evening. Another upper level low associated with an H5 trough was shifting south-southeast across the Central Rockies This Evening with a plume of mid/high level moisture extending from Western Texas east-northeast through the Central Plains and Ohio Valley region per water vapor satellite imagery.

(Tonight)

Low pressure near Isle Royal will lift northeast pulling farther away from our local area through the night while high pressure builds east out of the Dakotas. Lingering snow and or rain showers will come to end toward the Midnight hour in Northern-Northeast Minnesota with any additional snow accumulations generally under an inch and mainly confined to areas north of a Cook to Tofte line. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with lows in the 20s and 30s with north or west winds at 5-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

(Sunday and Sunday Night)

High pressure will be in control of our weather although there will be another disturbance that passes to our north by Sunday Night...Little moisture will be available for this system and as a result no precipitation is expected. Look for mostly sunny-partly cloudy skies for Sunday and clear-partly cloudy skies for Sunday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s and lower 30s but some teens are possible up north. Winds will be out of the south or west under 20 mph during this period.

(Extended Forecast)

High pressure should remain in control of our weather during the early to mid part of next week. Expect clear-partly cloudy skies in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Monday-Tuesday with highs both days mainly in the 40s with a few locales possibly pushing toward 50 degrees. Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees but some teens remain a possibility in the traditional cold spots.

Next week's weather pattern will be rather unusual for November as a cut-off low develops across the Plains which will result in some significant snowfall across parts of the Western High Plains and Central Plains region the early to mid part of next week while our area will be dominated by high pressure and normal to above normal temperatures. That cut-off low looks to open up and weaken toward the latter part of next week while it shifts toward the Upper Midwest or Great Lakes region. We could see some light rain spread north into portions of our area later next week although right now this does not look like a very big deal.

It still does appear that colder temperatures will drop south into the Upper Midwest toward the end of this month...Although timing has been changing a bit from day to day and also how long the cold air would stick around for if it does manage to build into our neck of the woods.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Colder compared to recent nights. Low 23 to 28. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Sunday... Mostly sunny. High 40 to 45. Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 23 to 28. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday... Mostly sunny. High 42 to 47.

.Monday Night... Mostly clear. Low 25 to 30.

.Tuesday... Mostly sunny. High 40 to 45.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 40 to 45.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 35 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 21 degrees

Tim