Saturday, October 31, 2009

10/31/09: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:52 PM CDT, Saturday, October 31st, 2009

*Don't forget to fall back one hour...Turn your clocks back one hour Tonight!

***Happy Halloween to everyone, have a safe and fun time Tonight***

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies were found across our area Today with some passing flurries, sprinkles, and snow showers at times but little if any accumulations were reported. Highs Today were in the 30s and lower 40s with 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranging from -4 to -5 degrees C. Winds were out of the west or northwest at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts. Surface map as of 4 PM features an intense area of low pressure centered in Northeast Canada with low pressure of 996 mb centered over the Eastern Alberta-Western Saskatchewan Province area with a warm front attached to this low centered over the Western Dakotas.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Northwest flow aloft was in control across the Upper Midwest on this last day of October 2009. Axis of the powerful winds aloft which were over our area 24 hours ago have shifted into Eastern Canada Today along with intense 12 hour 500 mb height falls of 150-240 meters! Note: At one point last night height falls reached 270 meters over portions of the Upper Midwest as low pressure was deepening as it passed through Southern Ontario Province. Water vapor satellite imagery reveals that the cold upper trough that was over our area earlier Today was progressing east through the Central and Eastern Great Lakes/Eastern Canada region late This Afternoon with the next system of concern for our area sliding east-southeast through Southwestern Canada. Weak 60 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls were occurring near this system Today across parts of Western Canada and the Pacific Northwest.

(Tonight)

Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies across our area Tonight with some light snow or mixed precipitation possible after Midnight west of a line from International Falls to Brainerd. Any flurries left-over from Today should come to an end early This Evening. Lows Tonight will be in the 20s and 30s with west or northwest winds turning south or southeast at 5-15 mph later in the night.

(Sunday and Sunday Night)

Low pressure currently in Southwest Canada will head east and drag it's warm front and cold front through the Upper Midwest. A 30-40 knot low level jet will be in place across Northern Minnesota on Sunday and this combined with warm advection and some lift provided by the warm front should be enough to generate some light snow and rain in Northcentral and Northeast Minnesota with lesser chances for mainly light rain showers and sprinkles farther south in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota. Any snow accumulations should be under an inch and should be confined to areas north of the Iron Range. Some lingering rain and or snow showers will be possible across our area Sunday Night as the cold front moves through. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s and 30s. South, southeast, or southwest winds are forecast on Sunday at 10-20 mph with south, west, or northwest winds at 10-25 mph for Sunday Night.

(Extended Forecast)

A northwest flow aloft is expected for the Upper Midwest most of next week which will result in some fairly weak low pressure disturbances that will pass east-southeast through the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest. Each one of these systems could bring a period of snow or rain but amounts continue to look fairly light. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the 30s and 40s across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with lows both nights in the 20s and 30s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy although a period of clearing is possible This Evening. Low 28 to 33. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph becoming south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph toward dawn.

.Sunday... Mostly cloudy. Light rain is possible at times which could be mixed with snow during the Morning. High 40 to 45. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 40%.

.Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy. Rain or snow showers possible. Low 30 to 35. Wind south becoming west at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 20%.

.Monday... Partly sunny. High 38 to 43.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. High 38 to 43.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible. Low 28 to 33. Chance of snow 20%.

.Wednesday... Mostly cloudy. Snow or rain showers possible. High 37 to 42. Chance of precipitation 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 44 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 28 degrees

Tim

Friday, October 30, 2009

10/30/09: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:38 PM CDT, Friday, October 30th, 2009

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

A powerful upper level trough and area of low pressure was shifting north-northeast across the Upper Midwest Today with the surface low as of 3 PM centered near Hibbing Minnesota with a pressure down to 981 mb! The surface low has deepened 9 mb over the last 9 hours or 15 mb since 11 PM last night. Some of the lowest pressure readings as of 3 PM ranged from 28.99" at Grand Rapids to 28.95" at Orr to 28.96" at Cook and 28.99" at Eveleth. Lowest pressure at the Duluth Airport has been 29.04" so far...But this may drop a little more over the next hour or so.

An occluded front attached to this low lifted north-east through our area This Morning through about Midday Today and brought with it an area of rain showers. A dry slot followed the occluded front with this feature affecting all of Northwest Wisconsin west through Eastern-Northeast Minnesota which resulted in some sunshine during the Afternoon hours along with brisk south/southwest winds from 15-30 mph with gusts of 30-50 mph. Ashland Wisconsin reported a peak wind gust of 53 mph earlier This Afternoon.

An intense vort max associated with the upper level low was now shifting east-northeast out of Central Minnesota and this feature has been producing some showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm This Afternoon across parts of Northern-Central St. Louis County while a few other showers were in the process of developing late Today across Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota. Meanwhile a cold front was shifting east into Central Minnesota and this boundary combined with moisture and colder air wrapping around the deepening surface low has been producing a nice deformation band of rain which is mixing with and turning to snow This Afternoon just west of our area. In fact...Snow some of it heavy with gusty north winds and visibilities under a mile have been occurring at times Today across much of Westcentral Minnesota.

Some other notable highlights associated with this big late October storm include a major winter storm which hit the Rockies and parts of the Western High Plains over the past few days with snowfall totals of 26-45" reported over parts of Colorado with 12-18" reported in parts of South Dakota and Western Nebraska.

This storm also produced 36 severe weather reports on Thursday over portions of the Southern Plains with 7 reports of tornadoes in Southern Arkansas and Northwestern Louisiana.

High temperatures across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin were in the 40s and 50s Today with 60s across parts of Northwest Wisconsin. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +1 to +9 degrees C with the warmest values occurring in the Arrowhead of Minnesota while strong cold advection approaches from the west-southwest late Today.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

500 mb trough (534 meters) with 100-120 knot H5 winds and 150-170 knot H3 winds were in place across the Upper Midwest...Central Plains...And Western Great Lakes region This Afternoon with impressive 12 hour 500 mb height falls of 150-210 meters covering much of the Upper Midwest and Central Plains east into the Western Great Lakes Today per RUC model analysis.

(Tonight)

Low pressure will continue to deepen Tonight with pressures dropping to between 970-975 mb by dawn as the low heads toward the Lake Nipigon/Thunder Bay Ontario Canada area This Evening then toward Northern Ontario Province Overnight. Western areas will see rain mix with and turn to snow through 7 PM with some snow or snow showers lingering in that area through about Midnight with possible snow accumulations of an inch or two west of a line from International Falls to Grand Rapids to Pine River. East of that line expect areas of rain to become mixed with or change to some snow showers and flurries from mid-Evening through the Overnight hours...Although snow amounts in these areas should remain less than an inch. Look for mostly cloudy skies Tonight with lows in the 20s and 30s while gusty winds from the south or west shift more to the northwest and west. 850 mb wind speeds are forecast to strengthen to 35-50 knots across our area Tonight and this should result in 15-30 mph sustain wind speeds with gusts up to 40-45 mph.

(Saturday and Saturday Night)

Powerful low pressure between 967-970 mb will pull into Northeastern Canada during this period while the next system of interest for our area approaches the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest by Saturday Night. Warm advection pattern will develop over our area by Saturday Night and this could cause some light snow or rain over parts of Northcentral-Northeast Minnesota with only minimal snow accumulations expected at this time. Look for some lingering flurries or snow showers on Saturday across our area but overall Tomorrow looks like a mainly dry day. Expect partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies Tomorrow with partly-mostly cloudy skies Tomorrow Night. Highs Saturday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s and 30s. Winds will be out of the northwest on Saturday at 15-25 mph with some higher gusts. Winds Saturday Night will be out of the south, northwest, or east under 20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

Weather pattern from Sunday through most of next week will be characterized by a west or northwest flow aloft with a few minor systems embedded within the flow passing through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest from time to time. One such system could bring a few rain showers to the area on Sunday with some snow possible early in the day across Northern Minnesota. Another system could spread some rain or snow to the area around mid-week. None of these systems look very strong at this time with just minor amounts of snow and or rain expected. High temperatures Sunday will be in the 30s and 40s but some 50s are possible in far Southern areas. Highs Monday will be in the 30s and 40s. Lows Sunday Night and Monday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers early then occasional light rain or drizzle developing between 6 PM-8 PM. Rain will mix with and turn to snow showers and flurries Overnight. Snow accumulations less than one inch. Low 28 to 33. Wind southwest at 15 to 30 mph shifting to the west to northwest This Evening at 15 to 30 mph. Winds could occasionally gust over 40 mph. Chance of precipitation 60%.

.Saturday... Windy. Mostly cloudy. A few snow showers or flurries possible mainly during the Morning. High 33 to 38. Wind northwest at 15 to 30 mph. Chance of snow 30%.

.Saturday Night... Some clearing possible for a time during the Evening then clouds increasing once again Overnight. Light snow or rain possible late. Low 27 to 32. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming south. Chance of precipitation 20%.

.Sunday... Mostly cloudy. Rain showers possible which could mix with snow early. High 40 to 45. Chance of precipitation 20%.

.Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy. Rain or snow showers possible. Low 30 to 35. Chance of precipitation 20%.

.Monday... Partly sunny. High 38 to 43.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. High 38 to 43.

Normal High Temperature Today 45 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 29 degrees

Tim

10/30/09: Midday Storm Update

Issued at 1:41 PM CDT, Friday, October 30th, 2009

...As of 100 PM CDT low pressure of 985 mb was centered near Aitkin Minnesota with the best pressure falls lying across Northeastern Minnesota so the low should continue on it's northeast track toward the Iron Range through late This Afternoon while continuing to deepen probably toward 980-982 mb by 400 PM...

The occluded front attached to the low has swung north-east through all but the Arrowhead of Minnesota as of early Afternoon. There is a band of showers occurring near this front in Cook and Lake Counties in Northeast Minnesota but this activity was lifting rapidly into Southern Ontario Province.

Dry slot has actually allowed some sunshine to break out from the Twin Ports south along the I35 corridor in Eastern Minnesota and east into much of Northwestern Wisconsin. early This Afternoon with temperatures warming well into the 50s and 60s early This Afternoon across Northwest Wisconsin back through the Twin Ports and points south. Gusty south-southwest winds up to 30 mph were also occurring in these areas as of Midday.

The upper level low as of 100 PM was located in Westcentral Minnesota (540 meters) and this feature along with a very intense vort max was helping to generate some cold core shower activity at this time over Northcentral Minnesota with movement toward the north-northeast.

Some additional scattered shower activity will likely continue to develop through late This Afternoon in Northern-Eastern Minnesota as the H5 low/vort max heads north-east out of Western Minnesota. Although not very likely...It's still possible that a stray thunderstorm could develop since we are now seeing some sunshine which is allowing for temperatures to warm which will aid in some very weak instability but with the very dynamic nature of this storm it probably will not take very much to spark an isolated thunderstorm thru late Today for areas east and south of the Iron Range.

All of our area remains warm enough at the moment and will remain warm enough so that any precipitation that falls through late This Afternoon would remain in liquid form.

Tim

10/30/09: Morning Storm Update

Issued at 7:55 AM CDT, Friday, October 30th, 2009

...As of 7 AM CDT low pressure of 990 mb was centered in Southwestern Minnesota or between the cities of Tracy and Walnut Grove...Best pressure falls up to 3 mb/2 hours were found across Northeastern Minnesota early This Morning per RUC model analysis and this lines up pretty well with where this area of low pressure should end up by This Afternoon.

This low has deepened about 6 mb over the past 8 hours and further deepening can be expected into Tonight.

As the low heads into Northeast Minnesota This Afternoon the pressures should be down to around 985-986 mb with pressures dropping to between 976-981 mb This Evening as the low heads toward the Lake Nipigon/Thunder Bay Ontario Canada areas.

The upper level low as of 7 AM was located across Eastern Nebraska (540 meters) with powerful jet stream winds of 90-120 knots at 500 mb extending from Central Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin south-southwest through the Central Plains with 300 mb wind speeds of 120-150 knots occurring from the Upper Midwest down through the Plains or on the east side of this deep storm.

The deformation zone or the area where the most persistent precipitation will occur will affect the Western-Northwestern parts of our area Today including the Counties of Koochiching MN...Itasca MN...And Cass MN...Or on the west and northwest sides of the area of low pressure.

Rain can also be expected This Morning into the early Afternoon hours across the rest of Northeast and Eastcentral Minnesota through Northwest Wisconsin as very deep moisture and good lift north-east of the surface low and occluded front help to produce some precipitation in these areas. Although precipitation will be much more scattered in nature across Northwestern Wisconsin compared to areas farther west.

Some weak instability will also be in place across Northwest Wisconsin into far Eastern Minnesota This Morning through about Midday Today with Mid Level Lapse Rates of 6.0-7.0 c/km and Lifted Indices nearing zero degrees C with CAPES generally of 100 j/kg or less. This could be just enough with all the dynamics in place to produce an isolated thunderstorm risk in those above mentioned areas through early This Afternoon.

Colder air will begin to get pulled into the backside of the deepening low Today and this could result in the rain mixing with or turning over to snow later This Afternoon and This Evening across Northern Minnesota.

Winds will also be a factor across our area especially by This Afternoon and Tonight. Winds will shift to the south and west and eventually west or northwest with wind speeds averaging 15-30 mph but wind gusts could reach 35-40 mph by Tonight.

Stay tuned for more updates.

Tim

10/30/09: Dense Fog Advisory Information

Issued at 7:46 AM CDT, Friday, October 30th, 2009

Following headline issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

*Dense Fog Advisory* is in effect until 500 PM CDT This Evening for parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Counties included in the advisory are:

Southern Cook MN...Southern Lake MN...Southern St. Louis MN...Carlton MN...And Douglas WI...

Some cities included in the advisory are:

Grand Portage MN...Grand Marais MN...Silver Bay MN...Two Harbors MN...Duluth MN...Brookston MN...Floodwood MN...Cloquet MN...Moose Lake MN...Superior WI...Poplar WI...And Solon Springs WI...

Very moist air running north out ahead of a strengthening area of low pressure centered in Southwestern Minnesota early This Morning has resulted in the development of thick fog across parts of the advisory area. Visibilities in some locations have been down to one quarter mile or less at times. The fog will impact Highway 61 along the North Shore of Lake Superior down through the Twin Ports and including portions of I35 as well as Highways 2 and 53 in Douglas County Wisconsin.

Visibilities may start to improve from southwest to northeast across the advisory area during the Afternoon hours as strong low pressure lifts up into Northern Minnesota which will cause surface winds to shift from a moist easterly direction to a somewhat drier southwesterly direction.

A dense fog advisory means visibilities will be reduced to less than one quarter mile at times. If you are driving...Slow down...Use low beam headlights...And leave plenty of distance ahead of you.

Tim

Thursday, October 29, 2009

10/29/09: Late Night Storm Update

Issued at 11:38 PM CDT, Thursday, October 29th, 2009

...Low pressure of 996 mb has moved into extreme Southeast Nebraska or near Beatrice as of 11 PM CDT...

Rain helped along by a 40 knot S-SWRLY H85 jet has shifted east into Wisconsin late This Evening in an area of strong moist advection...But scattered rains have re-developed within the past hour or so across parts of Northcentral through Eastcentral Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin as the main surface low and powerful upper level trough with it's impressive height falls push north-northeast into the Upper Midwest. Also seeing very good frontogenesis develop late This Evening across much of Central Minnesota.

Latest model guidance is in fairly good agreement in showing the low pushing north-northeast toward Central Minnesota toward Noon Friday then passing west-north of Duluth Friday Afternoon then reaching the Thunder Bay Ontario Canada area Friday Evening. The low is forecast to deepen to around 985 mb on Friday and to around 976 mb by Friday Night.

Rain will be common across all of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Overnight into Friday Morning but the storm's dry slot is still expected to shut the rain off from south to north-northeast across all of Northwest Wisconsin and possibly west into Eastern and Northeast Minnesota from Friday Morning into Midday Friday. West of these areas expect rain to persist and with colder air working into the back side of the low the rain will mix with and turn to snow from northwest-southeast in Western-Northwest parts of our area Friday Afternoon-Evening. It's still uncertain whether any snow will accumulate or not and this will depend on the timing on which the rain turns to snow. That remains somewhat unclear at this time.

Stay tuned for additional updates.

Tim

10/29/09: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:13 PM CDT, Thursday, October 29th, 2009

Note: Rainfall total at the Duluth Airport through 5 PM Today: 0.35"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Low pressure of 998 mb was centered over Southeastern Kansas as of 3 PM Today or between the cities of Arkansas City and Sedan. A stationary front was draped from Southeastern Manitoba Province down toward the Eastern North Dakota-Northwest Minnesota state line to Eastern South Dakota to the Eastern half of Nebraska. Unusually high amounts of moisture on strong southerly winds have pushed north into the Upper Midwest out ahead of the front and surface low. This moisture combined with a couple of upper level disturbances lifting north-northeast through our area has brought widespread rain to Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today. Most of the rain has been on the light side but there has been some moderate to heavier showers moving through on occasion. Rainfall estimates per Duluth Doppler Radar have generally been under one quarter inch Today although there has been some heavier rains with amounts nearing one half inch. Dewpoints across our area were running in the 40s to lower 50s This Afternoon with PWS ranging from 0.90" in Northwest parts of our area to between 1.00"-1.25" in Northeast...Northcentral...and Eastcentral Minnesota through Northwest Wisconsin. Along with the abundant moisture and rainfall Today there has also been areas of fog which has been dense at times especially near Lake Superior where visibilities have lowered to one quarter mile Today. High temperatures were in the 40s and 50s Today with 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranging from +6 to +9 degrees C in Northwest Wisconsin into far Eastern Minnesota to +2 to +4 degrees C in Northern Minnesota. Winds Today were out of the south or east at 5-15 mph with some higher gusts.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Very deep upper level trough (546 meters) is finally beginning to inch east out of the Southwest U.S. late Today. The upper level low covered Colorado south into Northern New Mexico late Today with a strong 80-100 knot 500 mb jet centered on the south-east side of this system Today extending from Southern Nebraska to Western Texas. 300 mb analysis per RUC model shows a 120-140 knot H3 jet extending from Northern Mexico all the way north to the Dakotas and Western Minnesota while 150 knot H3 winds were found on the west side of this very deep storm or from Eastern Utah to Central Arizona. 60 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls were found near and ahead of the H5 trough from Southwestern Kansas to Western Texas This Afternoon.

(Tonight)

Low pressure in Southern Kansas This Afternoon will lift north-northeast toward Eastern Nebraska-Western Iowa Overnight while deepening a little bit down toward the 995 mb range later Tonight. Strong southerly low level jet of 30-50 knots highest in Northwest Wisconsin and far Eastern Minnesota will continue to pump very moist air north into our area and this combined with the lift occurring well ahead of the low and a frontal boundary off to our west will continue to produce rain across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight. PWS of 1.00" to around 1.50" will remain in place Tonight and could lead to some locally heavy downpours. This low level jet will also continue to produce plenty of warm air advection and will also result in a little bit of elevated instability Tonight and this could lead to some isolated thunderstorm activity generally in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota. Areas of fog and drizzle will also persist for most areas Tonight with some dense fog at times especially near Lake Superior. Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s which is where our normal high temperature should be for late October. Winds Tonight will be out of the south or east at 5-15 mph with some higher gusts.

(Friday and Friday Night)

Low pressure will deepen from around 995 mb Friday Morning to around 987 mb by Friday Afternoon as the low tracks from Southwestern Minnesota into Northern Minnesota by Friday Afternoon. It appears that the low will pass between Aitkin and Duluth on Friday which is slightly farther east then was was expected over the past few days. The low by Friday Night is expected to deepen to around 975-980 mb as it passes west-north of Lake Superior.

Rain will continue through the day from International Falls toward Grand Rapids and Walker while rain tapers off across Northwest Wisconsin as a dry slot pushes north-east into those areas by early Friday Afternoon which should result in a diminishing trend to the rain. The area from Northeast to Eastcentral Minnesota will likely see the most widespread rain occur during the Morning before a brief break occurs during the early Afternoon hours before some additional rain moves in toward the mid or late Afternoon hours on Friday.

A risk for isolated thunderstorms continues through midday Friday mainly in Northwest Wisconsin thanks to strong upper level winds in place along with some weak instability pushing northeast near the dry slot and occluded front and also out ahead of a very potent vort max. If any shower or thunderstorm can grow high enough into the atmosphere it may be able to mix down some of the intense 80-140 knot winds which will be overhead on Friday. We won't see 80 mph winds...But the potential for brief gusty winds of 30 to around 45 mph could occur if any activity was to develop on Friday.

With the low deepening on Friday it will help to pull some colder air into the storm circulation with 850 mb temperatures lowering to zero to -4 degrees C across all of our area by Friday Night...But on Friday 850 mb temperatures will be as warm as +6 to +10 degrees C in Northwest Wisconsin to +2 to +6 degrees C across Northeast and Eastern Minnesota.

High temperatures on Friday will be in the 40s and 50s with some locales toward Hurley...Park Falls...And Hayward possibly reaching the 60 degree mark. Temperatures will fall into the 30s and 40s over most of our area from southwest to northeast come Friday Afternoon as an occluded front and low pressure push north-east through the area. Low temperatures Friday Night will settle into the 20s and 30s.

Look for south, east, or southwest winds on Friday which will shift to the west, northwest, or southwest Friday Night. Wind speeds will range from 10-20 mph but wind gusts from 25 to 35 mph should develop over most areas by Friday Afternoon into Friday Night.

As the colder air works into the area it's possible that some of the rain could mix with or turn to snow showers and flurries mainly in Northern Minnesota Friday Night but snow amounts if any should remain less than an inch.

Note: *Gale Warning* is in effect for the Open Waters of Lake Superior from 7 PM CDT Friday until 1 PM CDT Saturday. Peak winds out of the west up to 40 knots are expected with waves peaking at around 11 feet.

(Extended Forecast)

Quieter weather is anticipated for the Upper Midwest this weekend through most of next week as the upper level flow becomes more zonal (west-east) or slightly northwest. There will be some low pressure disturbances embedded within the flow and those disturbances could affect our weather at times with the potential for some rain and or snow showers however no major systems are forecast at this time.

High temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows both nights in the 20s and 30s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Occasional rain along with areas of dense fog and drizzle. Temperatures holding nearly steady from 46 to 51 degrees. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday... Occasional rain. Areas of dense fog and drizzle mainly during the Morning. Turning breezy in the Afternoon. High 50 to 55 with temperatures falling to around 40 degrees later in the day. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph becoming south during the Morning...Then becoming southwest and increasing to 15 to 30 mph during the Afternoon. Chance of rain 80%.

.Friday Night... Breezy and colder. Mostly cloudy with occasional light rain which could become mixed with snow. Low 30 to 35. Wind southwest becoming west to northwest at 15 to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 50%.

.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. A few rain or snow showers possible. High 35 to 40. Chance of precipitation 20%.

.Saturday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 27 to 32.

.Sunday... Mostly cloudy. Rain showers possible. High 38 to 43. Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy. Rain or snow showers possible. Low 30 to 35. Chance of precipitation 20%.

.Monday... Partly sunny. High 38 to 43.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 45 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 29 degrees

Tim

10/29/09: Storm Update

Issued at 9:10 AM CDT, Thursday, October 29th, 2009

...00z model run from last night has made some changes to the storm track/intensity...

The 18z NAM from Wednesday seemed to be latching onto something which the 00z model run followed up on late last night. It now appears that the surface low will end up tracking farther south-east then expected with the low passing very close to Duluth on Friday then up toward Thunder Bay Ontario Canada by Mid or Late Afternoon Friday. The low is still forecast to deepen, however it may not deepen as much as what was forecasted recently. Still it does appear that will be seeing pressures drop to around 985 mb or so as the low heads into Northeast Minnesota Friday Afternoon.

What this means is that the dry slot may impact a smaller part of our area and with the slower timing of the surface low any dry slotting would occur Friday Morning into Midday Friday. Northwest Wisconsin will have the best chance at getting dry slotted based on the new storm track with a lesser chance in Eastern Minnesota into Northeast Minnesota. Locations from International Falls to Grand Rapids on west to Walker should stay fairly wet at times right through Friday Afternoon while the rest of our area also sees rainy spells through early Friday but the rain may shut-off for a time especially across Northwestern Wisconsin by Friday Morning.

This storm has been a difficult one to forecast over the past few days with the ever changing track and intensity of this system from one day to the next.

It's totally possible that the 12z model run This Morning will come in and show something different so nothing is set in stone quite yet.

Isolated thunderstorm risk does continue Today/Tonight especially in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota.

Locally heavy downpours remain a possibility as well across the entire area through Friday Morning thanks to a very moist airmass in place ahead of this storm.

Stay tuned for additional updates

Tim

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

10/28/09: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:39 PM CDT, Wednesday, October 28th, 2009

Storm Impacts thru Friday...

-Major winter storm for the Rockies...Western High Plains...And Northern Plains...

-Rain/isolated thunder risk spreads into the Upper Midwest...

-Strong winds developing Thursday through early Saturday...

-Impressive upper level wind field overspreads the Upper Midwest Thursday/Friday...

-Dry slot surges north-east ending the widespread rain threat Thursday Night...

-Powerhouse vort max blasts thru Friday Morning...

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

First signs of the storm set to hit our area was seen Today as low level moisture streams north into the Upper Midwest which resulted in the development of low level cloudiness along with areas of haze and fog. There's also been a few light rain showers at times mainly in Western-Northern parts of our area Today. High temperatures were in the 40s to around 50 degrees for most areas in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today with 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM of +3 to +5 degrees C. Dewpoints This Afternoon were generally in the upper 30s and 40s with PWS of .50"-.70". Winds Today were out of the south or east at 5-15 mph with some higher gusts. Surface map as of 3 PM features low pressure of 1008 mb centered over the Southeast part of Manitoba Province with a stationary front extending from Eastern North Dakota to Central South Dakota to Western Kansas. Low pressure of about 1002 mb was centered in Western Kansas with a 992-994 mb low developing across the Texas Panhandle.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Powerful and cold upper level trough covers the Rockies Today with 500 mb temperatures down into the 20s/30s below zero This Afternoon per RUC model analysis. A strong upper level low (540 meters) covered the Southwest U.S. with a Northern piece of energy in the form of an upper level trough (546 meters) covering the Northern Rockies into Saskatchewan/Alberta/And Western Manitoba Provinces in Canada. 90-110 knot H5 wind speeds were in place This Afternoon in Southwestern California south-southeast toward the Baja of California...While 120-150 knot H3 wind speeds were in place on the west side of this storm from the Pacific Northwest south through Nevada and California while a 110-130 knot H3 jet rounds the base of the trough and ejects into Southern-Eastern New Mexico and Southeast Colorado late Today. Afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows plenty of moisture for this storm to work with as the Gulf Of Mexico opens up while some moisture also comes in off the Pacific Ocean. The greatest 12 hour 500 mb height falls of 120-150 meters were found over Southern Arizona/Southern New Mexico Today so this system has really dug itself pretty far to the south.

(Tonight)

A stationary front will be centered to our west Tonight with low pressure to our northwest while a stronger area of low pressure of a few areas of low pressure center themselves across the Central and Southern Plains. A moist southerly wind flow will persist across the Upper Midwest Tonight out ahead of the big H5 trough off to our west and this will result in plenty of low clouds along with some patchy haze...fog...And drizzle. Some rain showers are also possible at times...Mainly in Northern-Western portions of our area. Lows Tonight will be generally in the 40s but a few 30s are possible in far Northeast Minnesota. Winds Tonight will be out of the south or east under 20 mph.

(Thursday and Thursday Night)

The stationary front currently to our west will turn into a cold front but will remain to our west through most of this period while low pressure heads north-northeast out of the Central Plains...The low is expected to reach Westcentral areas of Minnesota by dawn Friday. An occluded front attached to this low will swing from south to north-east across our area by Thursday Night into Friday Morning. A southerly low level jet from 25-40 knots will be found over our area on Thursday before strengthening to 30-55 knots by Thursday Night. This low level jet will continue to advect moisture and warm air into our area with dewpoints expected to be in the 40s and lower 50s while H85 td's increase toward +8 degrees C with PWS from 1.00"-1.50"!

Look for rain to become more widespread across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin during the day Thursday with rain lingering into Thursday Night...However the rain should begin to taper off from south-north across most of our area by late Thursday Night with the possible exception to this being for areas along and west of an International Falls to Walker Minnesota line where rain could linger through early Friday depending on the final track of the low.

Some of the rainfall could be locally heavy in parts of our area due to the deep moisture in place. In between the spells of rain there could be some drizzle along with some haze and possible fog.

A risk for isolated thunderstorms also continues for most of our area during the Thursday and Thursday Night time period due to the strong H85 jet in place along with the continued warm air advection...Speaking of which 850 mb temperatures are forecast to rise to +4 to +10 degrees C from northwest-southeast across our local area Thursday Night and early Friday which could result in Thursday's high temperatures not occurring until Thursday Night.

Very strong winds aloft ranging from 60-100 knots at the 500 mb level and 90-130 knots at the 300 mb level will be surging north-northeast out of the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest during this period as this big storm approaches the area. Some of this wind energy could mix down to the surface especially in the heavier showers and isolated thunderstorms that can develop around our area...In general look for 10-25 mph south or east winds on Thursday with south...east...Or southwest winds Thursday Night from 10-25 mph. Wind gusts could be over 30 mph though.

Temperatures Thursday and Thursday Night will be in the 40s and 50s but it's not out of the question that some locales toward Hayward...Park Falls...Hurley...And Spooner push toward 60 degrees early Friday.

(Extended Forecast)

Low pressure of around 994 mb is forecast to reach Westcentral Minnesota Friday Morning. This low is then forecast to deepen to around 985 mb as it heads into Southern Ontario Province by Friday Afternoon. The low will then track toward the Northern Ontario Province-Southern Hudson Bay region while deepening to around 970-975 mb by Friday Night.

An intense vort max (30-40 units-which is very strong) will be pushing north-east through Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Friday Morning through Mid-Afternoon Friday near or on the southwest-south side of the surface low. As this strong disturbance moves through it could develop a broken line of low topped convection I.E. showers with limited thunder but a risk for strong winds to mix down to the surface thanks to the powerful winds that will remain overhead into early Friday Afternoon...The best potential for any such activity would be during the Friday Morning/early Friday Afternoon time frame and mainly affecting Eastcentral and Northeast Minnesota through all of Northwest Wisconsin.

A risk for rain showers will persist across most of our area on Friday with strong cold advection wrapping around the low and spreading north-east through our area on Friday which could result in the rain mixing with or turning over to snow in Western-Southwest parts of our area as 850 mb temperatures drop to between +2 and -4 degrees C. A lingering chance for a few rain or snow showers will be found in our area Friday Night on the backside of the deep low to our north.

Note: The 18z NAM from Today has trended slower and somewhat farther east with the storm track as it crosses through Minnesota on Friday. This will be something to keep an eye on since it could result in the dry slot setting up a tad more to the south-east and could also result in a faster change-over from rain to snow in Western and Northwest parts of our local area on Friday.

As far as winds go...Look for southwest and west winds on Friday in the 15-30 mph range with higher gusts possible. Brisk winds of 15-30 mph will linger into Friday Night.

Things look mainly dry for Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Saturday and Saturday Night as strong low pressure heads into Northeast Canada while a weaker system moves into the Northern Plains. This next system could bring some rain and or snow showers to parts of our area later this weekend.

High temperatures on Friday will be in the 40s and 50s but will fall into the 30s and 40s. Lows Friday Night will be in the 20s and 30s. Highs Saturday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Saturday Night in the 20s and 30s.

*Note... *Gale Watch* is in effect for the Open Waters of Lake Superior beginning Friday Afternoon and lasting into Saturday Afternoon. During this event expect peak winds from the west to around 40-45 knots with peak wave heights up to 15 feet.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Hazy with patchy drizzle possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Occasional rain developing. Isolated thunderstorms possible during the Afternoon. Some haze...fog...and drizzle. High 46 to 51. Wind east to southeast at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90%.

.Thursday Night... Occasional rain with isolated thunderstorms also possible. Rain becoming more scattered Overnight. Areas of fog and drizzle. Low 40 to 45. Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph becoming south Overnight. Chance of rain 90%.

.Friday... Turning windy. Scattered rain showers. Mostly cloudy. High 48 to 53 with temperatures falling to around 40. Chance of rain 50%. Winds could occasionally gust over 30 mph.

.Friday Night... Windy. Scattered rain or snow showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 28 to 33. Chance of precipitation 40%. Winds could occasionally gust over 30 mph.

.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. A few rain or snow showers possible. High 35 to 40. Chance of precipitation 20%.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 27 to 32.

.Sunday... Mostly cloudy. Rain showers possible. High 38 to 43. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 46 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 30 degrees

Tim

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

10/27/09: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:23 PM CDT, Tuesday, October 27th, 2009

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

A very nice day for most of our area as sunshine and a breezy south wind allowed high temperatures to reach normal to even 5 degrees or so above normal for late October. Clouds were a bit more widespread across Western-Northwest parts of our area and also across far Northeast Minnesota. Highs Today were generally in the 50s with 40s in far Northeast Minnesota. 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +2 to around +6 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the south or southeast at 10-20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph thanks to a strong H85 jet which was up to 40 knots This Afternoon across parts of the Upper Midwest. Surface map as of 4 PM featured low pressure of 994 mb centered over Southeast Saskatchewan Province with a 994 mb low covering Northeast Colorado. A cold front extended from the Central Dakotas to Northern Colorado. A few other lows of 998-1000 mb were centered over Arizona and New Mexico. Very strong 3-4 mb/2 hour pressure falls were occurring This Afternoon across the Southwest U.S. as a storm system starts to develop.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Powerful upper level trough (540-546 meters) was digging south across the Western U.S. An upper level low was located over Northeast Montana-Southern Saskatchewan Province This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery while an H3 jet of 130-160 knots extends from the Eastern Pacific Ocean and from Western Washington state south through Central California. Intense 12 hour 500 mb height falls of 120-180 meters covered a large part of the Central-Southern Rockies Today. Another storm was found over Northern Arkansas late Today with a virgorous shortwave trough pushing north-east across the Ohio Valley/Southeast U.S./Eastern Great Lakes region.

(Tonight)

Cold front will remain across the Northern Plains Tonight with southerly winds and partly-mostly cloudy skies found over our area. Lows Tonight will be mainly in the 30s but some 20s are possible mainly in Northwest Wisconsin. Look for south or east winds at 10-20 mph with higher gusts mainly This Evening. 850 mb jet up to 40 knots is expected to decrease some during the night and this should help in reducing the wind speeds by mid or late Evening.

(Wednesday and Wednesday Night)

Cold front will remain to our west during this period while strong low pressure currently over the Southwest U.S. ejects out onto the Central Plains. Look for partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies on Wednesday with mostly cloudy skies expected for Wednesday Night. Could see some light drizzle or light rain showers develop by Wednesday Night...Mainly in Western-Southern parts of our area. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 30s and 40s. Look for south or east winds during this period at 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

A strong area of low pressure will be lifting north-northeast from the Central Plains to the Upper Midwest from Thursday into Friday with the low pushing north into Ontario Province Canada by Friday Night and Saturday. The low is expected to deepen from the 992-995 mb range on Thursday to around 984 mb on Friday and to around 974 mb by Saturday. The best deepening with the low is expected to take place as the low exits Minnesota into Ontario Province Canada from Friday into Saturday.

Overall the models Today have trended faster with the movement of this system with the bulk of the organized precipitation occurring Thursday into early Friday with showery type precip then expected for the rest of Friday into Saturday as some moisture wraps around the strong low to our north-northeast.

Rain is expected to surge north-northeast across our area on Thursday as warm advection and a 30-40 knot H85 jet transport deep moisture north into our area ahead of the Plains low. PWS are forecast to reach .75"-1.00" while dewpoints climb into the 40s to the lower 50s. Some locally heavy downpours are possible thanks to the higher levels of moisture moving into the area. Rain should continue Thursday Night although a dry slot should start to affect most areas from southwest-northeast Overnight which should put an end to the widespread rainfall.

Scattered showers will then affect our area Friday and Friday Night as a very strong upper level trough passes through the Upper Midwest. Cold advection will be occurring over our area Friday into Saturday as H85 temperatures drop into the zero to -4 degree C range...This could cause some of the rain showers to mix with or turn to snow showers and flurries at times during the late Friday and Saturday time period...Right now it does not appear that will be dealing with any sort of big snow accumulations with this storm...But a dusting to perhaps an inch of snow could fall especially in Western-Northwest parts of our area.

Isolated risk for thunderstorms also continues for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Thursday into Friday Morning with Today's 12z GFS model showing the most instability to support thunder compared to the other models Today.

This storm still looks like it will have alot of upper level support going for it with 500 mb wind speeds of 60-110 knots and 300 mb wind speeds up to 140 knots across the Plains/Upper Midwest/and Great Lakes region.

All of this wind energy aloft in combination with the surface low deepening to our west-north should result in some gusty winds across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Friday and Saturday. Southwest winds will turn west and eventually west-northwest as the low pulls away. Widespread 15-30 mph winds should occur with higher gusts likely as well. Widespread gale force winds and possible storm force conditions are expected to develop across Lake Superior for Friday and Saturday.

High temperatures Thursday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Thursday Night in the 30s and 40s. Highs Friday will be in the 30s and 40s with some 50s in Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Friday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Clear skies giving way to partly cloudy skies. Low 33 to 38. Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph early.

.Wednesday... Becoming mostly cloudy. High 46 to 51. Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Rain developing. Thunder possible. High 46 to 51. Chance of rain 90%.

.Thursday Night... Rain... Thunder possible. Low 40 to 45. Chance of rain 90%.

.Friday... Turning windy. Scattered rain showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 45 to 50 with temperatures falling to around 40. Chance of rain 50%. Winds could occasionally gust over 30 mph.

.Friday Night... Windy. Scattered rain or snow showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Chance of precipitation 40%. Winds could occasionally gust over 30 mph.

.Saturday... Windy. A few rain or snow showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 35 to 40. Chance of precipitation 30%. Winds could occasionally gust over 30 mph.

Normal High Temperature Today 47 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 30 degrees

Tim

10/27/09: Quick update on late week storm

...Model trends from late last night into Today show a much faster track to the storm with less deepening until the low pressure center passes north of Minnesota from late Friday into Saturday...

Bottom line:

Best rain chances for Duluth will come Thursday-early Friday. Winds should not be as strong Friday-Saturday, although it still looks quite brisk, probably around 30 mph or so from the west. Snow chances are limited behind the low and mainly confined to late Friday Night-Saturday.

Stay tuned, models have been shifting back and fourth on this system and they could trend deeper and slower again, but the latest trend is for a much faster storm track with the best deepening not occurring until the low gets into Ontario Province Canada.

Tim

Monday, October 26, 2009

10/26/09: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:54 PM CDT, Monday, October 26th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 1989... A record high temperature of 75 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather tidbits:

-Average monthly temperature at the Duluth Airport 38.7 degrees through the 25th which at this time makes it the 5th coldest October of all time in Duluth. The coldest October ever in Duluth was set in 1917 with an average monthly temperature of 35.5 degrees. 2nd coldest was 36.8 degrees set in 2002. 3rd coldest was 36.9 degrees set in 1925. 4th coldest was 38.2 degrees set in 1952.

*2 of the top 10 coldest Octobers at Duluth occurred after the year 2000 and if this October stays in the top 10 then that will have 3 of the top 10 coldest Octobers having occurred after the year 2000.

-October 2009 has only had 1 day with a high temperature of 56 degrees. 1917 was the only other year that produced just 1 day during October with a high temperature of 56 degrees in Duluth.

-October 2009 and October 1917 are the only two years that have failed to produce a high temperature of 60 degrees in Duluth.

-Monthly Precipitation total thru the 25th is up to 3.68" at the Duluth Airport after the .34" of rain that fell on Sunday. This is 1.64" above average for the month.

-Sunspot 1029 has developed over the last few days per spaceweather.com website. According to astronomers this new sunspot has amazing size and structure and it could grow and soon become the biggest sunspot of 2009!

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Mostly cloudy skies covered most of our area Today with some peeks of sun occurring in Western areas. Lingering areas of drizzle and even some fog also occurred Today mainly near Lake Superior with some locales along the North Shore reporting visibilities under a mile at times. High temperatures were in the 30s and 40s Today with 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM right around zero degrees C. Winds Today were variable or west-southwest in direction at 5-15 mph. Surface map as of 3 PM features low pressure of 996 mb centered in Westcentral Saskatchewan Province with a trough attached to this low extending south-southwest into the Northern/Central Rockies. Strong 3-4 mb/2 hour pressure falls were occurring Today across a large part of the Northern Plains...Northern Rockies...And Eastern parts of the Pacific Northwest due to that low in Western Canada.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Northwest flow aloft was in place across the Upper Midwest Today as Sunday's shortwave trough pushes off to our east with a broad trough stretching from the Upper Midwest through the Central-Southern Plains with a moist southwest flow aloft covering the Eastern U.S. out ahead of this Plains trough. 120-140 knot H3 jet extended from Northeast Kansas toward Green Bay Wisconsin into Western Lower Michigan while a stronger 150 knot H3 jet blasts into Oregon and Southern Washington state along with intense 120-180 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls which covered the Pacific Northwest as a powerful upper level trough moves into those areas This Afternoon.

(Tonight)

Expect partly-mostly cloudy skies around across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Areas of fog are possible with some dense fog at times along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Patchy drizzle should end This Evening near Lake Superior. Lows Tonight will be generally in the 30s but some 20s are possible if skies clear out enough. Winds will be variable or west-southwest under 15 mph.

(Tuesday and Tuesday Night)

Low pressure will be centered to our northwest during this period with a cold front moving into the Northern Plains. A southwest low level jet is forecast to strengthen to 30-45 knots Tomorrow into Tomorrow Evening and this combined with warm air advection spreading east out of the Northern Plains should result in high temperatures on Tuesday reaching the 40s and 50s for the entire area. Lows Tuesday Night will be mainly in the 30s. Look for more sunshine on Tuesday compared to Today with generally partly-mostly sunny skies expected. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will occur Tuesday Night.

(Extended Forecast)

All eyes will be focused on what could become a major late October storm which could affect our weather from Thursday through Saturday. Differences continue however concerning the storm track and intensity but this storm is certainly one that has the makings of becoming a major storm for the Upper Midwest.

The GFS model cranks out a bomb as low pressure lifts north-northeast out of the Central Plains reaching Northern Minnesota Friday Evening...Then near Thunder Bay/Lake Nipigon areas across Southern Ontario Province by Saturday Morning. Pressures with the low drop from around 991 mb down toward 965-971 mb between Friday Morning and early Saturday due to the GFS model phasing energy coming in from Western Canada with the storm coming north out of the Plains...This phasing process would induce rapid explosiveness to the storm on Friday. Right now this is the extreme model solution but certainly can't be ruled out just yet.

The other models Today phase the energy once the low passes north of Minnesota from late Friday Night into Saturday which would result in a weaker but still rather strong surface low generally in the 980s mb range passing through the Upper Midwest then into Central Canada on Saturday.

Deep gulf moisture will be surging north into our area on a 30-50 knot low level jet later this week out ahead of this storm with dewpoints climbing into the 40s...Possibly even the 50s on Friday while H85 td's increase to between +6 and +10 degrees C which is quite rare for this time of year. PWS look to rise to at least 1" by later this week.

Warm air advection with 850 mb temperatures rising to +4 to +10 degrees C should spread north into our area from Thursday into Friday and depending on if some parts of our area break out for some partial sun on Friday will determine if high temps reach the 60s or not.

Precipitation chances appear highest from Thursday into Saturday for our area with some heavy rain also possible. Isolated risk for thunderstorms also exists for Thursday and Friday.

Once the low passes to our north cold advection will overspread the area from southwest-northeast which could cause the rain to mix with or change to snow during the late Friday Night/Saturday time period.

Another aspect of this storm could be the strong winds. South winds ahead of the storm will turn southwest as the low passes to our north. H85 wind speeds of 30-50 knots possibly stronger could develop across parts of our area from Friday into Saturday and this could result in widespread 20-40 mph wind speeds and possible higher gusts.

This storm appears to have plenty of upper level support going for it as an H3 jet of 140-170 knots develop from the Plains into the Upper Midwest later this week while H5 winds increase to 60 to around 100 knots across these same areas.

So the way it is looking right now Wednesday and Wednesday Night will be fairly calm around our area with highs in the 40s and 50s with lows in the 30s and 40s. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecast with some threat for drizzle or light rain showers for some areas by Wednesday Night.

High temps on Thursday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Thursday Night mainly in the 40s. Rain should be spreading north across our area during this period with isolated thunder possible as well.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Areas of drizzle ending This Evening. Overcast with partial clearing late. Patchy fog. Low 30 to 35. Wind west at 4 to 12 mph...Becoming variable.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 47 to 52. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 35 to 40. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Partly sunny. High 46 to 51.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45.

.Thursday... Rain developing. Thunder possible. Mostly cloudy. High 46 to 51. Chance of rain 60%.

.Thursday Night... Rain... Thunder possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Chance of rain 80%.

.Friday... Occasional rain... Thunder possible. Mostly cloudy. High 45 to 50. Chance of rain 80%.

Normal High Temperature Today 47 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 31 degrees

Tim

Sunday, October 25, 2009

10/25/09: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:37 PM CDT, Sunday, October 25th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 1989... A record high temperature of 72 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Cloudy skies prevailed over all of our area Today with light rain and drizzle affecting parts of Northwest Wisconsin into Northeast Minnesota. Some wet snow has mixed in with the rain at times Today mainly across the Arrowhead of Minnesota away from Lake Superior. Highs Today were in the 30s and 40s with 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranging from +1 to -3 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the north or east under 20 mph with some higher gusts closer to Lake Superior. Surface map at 4 PM Today featured high pressure of 1024 mb centered over Eastern Ontario Province with several weak areas of low pressure of around 1014 mb centered to our south in Western and Eastern Wisconsin with other lows over Northwest Missouri and Central Oklahoma. A cold front was connected to these lows and extended from Central Wisconsin to Northern Texas.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Broad upper level troughing covered most of the U.S. aside from the Southeastern part of the country. A shortwave trough was tracking east through the Upper Midwest Today while a stronger system digs south-southeast through the Southern Rockies. 120-140 knot H3 jet stream winds were found on the west side of that system from Western Montana south to Western Utah per RUC model analysis.

(Tonight)

Skies will remain overcast with areas of light rain and drizzle persisting through most of the night across parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as weak low pressure remains off to our southeast. Some wet snow will continue to mix with the rain at times mainly away from Lake Superior in Northeast Minnesota but little if any snow accumulation is expected. Lows Tonight will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees with north or east winds under 20 mph.

(Monday and Monday Night)

Low pressure will be centered off to our south-east during this period with another low off to our northwest. Expect mostly cloudy-partly sunny skies around Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Monday with partly-mostly cloudy skies on tap for Monday Night. Areas of drizzle and light rain are possible on Monday...Mainly affecting Northwest Wisconsin into the Arrowhead of Minnesota...Although precipitation chances will be lower Tomorrow compared to Today. A little bit of wet snow could mix in with the rain especially Monday Morning across the Arrowhead of Minnesota away from Lake Superior. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s and 30s. Winds during this period will be out of the north, west, or east under 20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

Upper level energy currently digging south-east through the Southern Rockies will result in an area of low pressure developing across the Southern Plains on Tuesday with this low expected to lift northeast toward the Ohio Valley into mid-week. This system will be too far east of our area to bring any precipitation to our neck of the woods...But some low level moisture lifting north-west on the back-side of that system could result in the development of some low clouds around our area by mid-week. High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 40s with a few 50s possible as well. Lows Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.

All eyes will then be focused on additional energy which will be diving south through the Western U.S. during the early to mid part of this week. Today's forecast models are still at odds as to what will happen around our area from Thursday through Saturday.

ECM remains farthest west and northwest with the storm track with the latest ECM tracking a low through the Dakotas into Northwest Ontario Province later this week.

12z GFS model has trended west as well but not as far west as the ECM...

GEM-GLOBAL model has the low on a more south-east track...Passing it south-east of Duluth/Superior.

NAVY NOGAPS model has the low basically tracking right through Minnesota.

The intensity of this storm is also being handled differently from one model run to the next...Some models/model runs show a huge storm with pressures below 980 mb while others show a weaker low passing across the Plains/Upper Midwest.

At this time it appears that the best chance for precipitation across our local area will come during the Thursday-early Saturday time period but some precip could push north-east into parts of our area by Wednesday Night.

Rain should be the dominate precipitation type and some of this rain could be heavy. Should the 12z GFS model run verify we could also be dealing with some sort of thunderstorm activity as strong winds aloft and CAPES up to 250 j/kg could support the development of some fast moving convective elements.

Colder air wrapping into the storm's circulation could result in the rain mixing with or turning over to some snow or snow showers from southwest-northeast across our area toward the Friday-Saturday time frame. However right now it does not look like this will be a big winter storm for our area...But things could change through mid-week.

Another aspect of this possible storm would be the strong winds. If the storm explodes like some model/model runs have shown it will do...Then we could be looking at 15-35 mph winds ahead of the low and even stronger winds on the backside of the low.

One other note about the lastest ECM and the 12z GFS model runs from Today is the potential for very mild air to blast north into Wisconsin on Thursday...H85 temps could reach +12 degrees C which would result in high temps on Thursday pushing into the 50s even the 60s for parts of Northwestern Wisconsin should this verify.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Occasional light rain and drizzle under cloudy skies. A bit of wet snow could mix in with the rain at times away from Lake Superior. Low 33 to 36. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday... Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle possible mainly early. High 38 to 43. Wind north to northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday Night... Becoming partly cloudy. Low 30 to 33. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. High 43 to 47.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 38 to 41.

.Wednesday... Mostly cloudy. High 45 to 50.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45.

.Thursday... Rain possible. Mostly cloudy. High 45 to 50. Chance of rain 50%.

Normal High Temperature Today 48 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 31 degrees

Tim

Saturday, October 24, 2009

10/24/09: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:06 PM CDT, Saturday, October 24th, 2009

Precipitation total at the Duluth Airport from Friday:

.19" with .5" of new snow.

Weather History:

On this date in 1998... A record high temperature of 71 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Snowfall reports from Northwest Wisconsin on Friday, October 23rd, 2009. Data provided by the NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

2 miles East of Butternut WI (Ashland County) 5.0"

Montreal WI (Iron County) 6.0"

Butternut WI (Ashland WI) 4.5"

Gile WI (Iron WI) 7.0"

Glidden WI (Ashland County) 4.0"

4 miles West of Clam Lake WI (Bayfield County) 3.0"

Upson WI (Iron County) 6.0"

Mercer WI (Iron County) 4.0"

3 miles West of Phillips WI (Price County) 2.0"

Hurley WI (Iron County) 3.0"

Here are some low temperatures that occurred earlier Today, Saturday, October 24th, 2009.

International Falls MN: 18 degrees

Crane Lake MN: 18 degrees

Embarrass MN: 19 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: 19 degrees

Hibbing MN: 20 degrees

Orr MN: 21 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

As one strong storm pulls away a new weaker system approaches the area from the Northern Plains. In between the two systems skies were partially sunny for a time Today but for the most part skies stayed on the cloudy side across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Some light rain was already pushing east-southeast through Northcentral-Eastcentral Minnesota late Today out ahead of the low to our west. Highs Today were in the 30s and 40s but a few spots toward Moose Lake and Brainerd were close to 50 degrees. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from zero to -3 degrees C across Northern and Northeast Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin to +2 to +3 degrees C across Southwest-Southern parts of our area. Winds Today were under 15 mph and were variable in direction. Surface map as of 3 PM featured low pressure of 988 mb centered over Northeast Ontario Province with low pressure of 1002 mb centered over Central North Dakota and Eastern South Dakota.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Northwest flow aloft was in place across the Upper Midwest Today in wake of Friday's storm which was over Eastern Canada This Afternoon. A strong (534 meter) 500 mb low was centered over Central Ontario Province Today with 90 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls in place from Eastern Canada south through the Ohio Valley. The next disturbance to affect our weather was heading east-southeast through the Northern-Central Plains Today with a broad area of generally weak height falls covering the Northern Plains west through the Rockies Today as a broad trough of low pressure covers much of the Western U.S. Today.

(Tonight)

An area of low pressure will be off to our west-southwest while a trough attached to this low remains west of our local area Tonight. Look for mostly cloudy skies with areas of light rain and some drizzle affecting most of our area with locations north of the Iron Range into the Arrowhead not seeing any precipitation until after Midnight. Lows Tonight will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees but some locations north of the Iron Range could drop into the 20s and if that happens then some snow could mix in with the rain at times as the precipitation begins later Tonight. Snow accumulations up North would be less than an inch if any snow does fall later Tonight. Winds Tonight will be out of the south or east under 20 mph.

(Sunday and Sunday Night)

Low pressure will be centered to our south-southeast during this period with a trough attached to this low extending north into our area. Expect mostly cloudy skies with areas of light rain and drizzle across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin during this period. Some wet snow could mix in with the rain at times especially in Higher Terrain areas Inland from Lake Superior. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Tomorrow Night generally in the 30s. Look for south, east, or north winds under 20 mph during this period.

(Extended Forecast)

Model agreement is extremely poor Today during the middle to end of next week with huge differences showing up in regards to where the upper level trough sets up...How amplified the trough is...And the timing of a possible major storm and also the track of it as well. The forecast models will probably not settle down to a common theme for another few days.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night will feature a cold front off to our west as energy starts to dive southeast out of the Pacific Northwest. Could see some rain showers over parts of our area especially by Tuesday Night. Highs Tuesday will be in the 40s with lows Tuesday Night in the 30s.

The cold front to our west will settle south-east into our area for Wednesday and Wednesday Night but this is when model agreement falls off completely. Could see some rain across our area Wednesday and Wednesday Night with highs mainly in the 40s with lows Wednesday Night in the 30s.

The GFS model over the last day or so was the most progressive in moving the upper trough through our area by mid-week which would have resulted in much colder temps pouring into our area by late next week while any storm system that develops across the Rockies or Southern Plains tracking off to our east later next week...Now the 12z GFS model from Today has slowed the eastward movement of the H5 trough which would cause a surface low to develop across the Plains with the low possibly bombing out to 975-980 mb later next week as it runs almost due north toward Northwestern Wisconsin or Eastern Minnesota.

The European Computer Model (ECM) over the last few runs kept the upper trough to our west while a powerful low lifts north through the Western High Plains before reaching Eastern North Dakota later next week.

The Gem-Global model has been flip-flopping from one run to the next with the latest run showing a very strong storm lifting north toward Western Iowa later next week.

Navy-Nogaps model seems to be the only model Today that has not latched onto any sort of big storm across the Plains. Instead they basically have the upper trough and a strong baroclinic zone (temperature difference) pushing south-east with any sort of storm staying more toward the Eastern Lakes or Ohio Valley region later next week.

Latest 12z GFS model would bring a significant rain/wind storm to our area for Thursday with colder air and howling northerly winds along with colder temps on the backside of this low which would cause the rain to turn to snow from southwest-northeast across our area from Thursday Night into Friday. Blizzard type conditions could develop per 12z GFS model especially across Western-Central Minnesota.

ECM would keep this an all rain event for our area with milder air in place keeping any threat for a winter storm across the Northern Plains and Western High Plains.

The period from Wednesday through Saturday of next week is a period that will have to be watched very closely since there is at least a small threat of a major late October storm coming out of the Plains.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Light rain and drizzle at times. Cloudy. Low 33 to 36. Wind variable becoming east at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80%.

.Sunday... Occasional Light rain and drizzle. Overcast. High 38 to 43. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70%.

.Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy. Light rain or drizzle possible. Low 33 to 35. Wind northeast at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Monday... Mostly cloudy. Light rain or drizzle possible. High 38 to 43. Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 33.

.Tuesday... Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. High 40 to 45. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. Low 35 to 38. Chance of rain 20%.

.Wednesday... Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. High 40 to 45. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 49 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 31 degrees

Tim

Friday, October 23, 2009

10/23/09: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:26 PM CDT, Friday, October 23rd, 2009

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Low pressure of 992 mb was centered near Milwaukee Wisconsin as of 4 PM Today with strong 3 mb/2 hour pressure falls found from Central Upper Michigan to Northern Lower Michigan This Afternoon. Widespread rain associated with this storm shifted north and covered all of Northwest Wisconsin Today with the rain area also shifting northwest into Eastern and Northeast Minnesota. The majority of the precipitation Today fell east of a line from Ely to Aitkin with the heaviest precipitation falling in Northwest Wisconsin. Colder air on the northwest side of the low was starting to change the rain to a mixture of rain and wet snow over portions of Northwest Wisconsin late Today but overall the precipitation has fallen in liquid form for areas that did see precipitation Today. High temperatures Today were generally in the 30s to lower 40s with 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranging from zero to -3 degrees C with an area of +1 degree C H85 temps covering parts of Iron/Price Counties in Northwest Wisconsin. Winds Today were out of the north or east at 5-15 mph with higher winds especially near Lake Superior with gusts up to 35 mph Today. Surface map as of 4 PM features low pressure of 1004 mb centered over Central Manitoba Province with another low of 1004 mb along the Alberta/Saskatchewan Province line. 2-3 mb/2 hour pressure falls covered much of the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains This Afternoon out ahead of those two lows up in Canada.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Active pattern continues...The latest storm to affect our weather was heading northeast across the Central Great Lakes This Afternoon with an H5 low (549 meters) heading north-east out of Southwest Wisconsin. There's been some heavy bursts of wet snow occurring Today near and on the northwest-north side of this upper low due to enough low level cooling occurring as strong forcing and lift helps cool the atmosphere enough to allow a change-over to wet snow Today near this H5 low. An upper level trough covered the Upper Midwest/Central Plains/and Great Lakes region Today with an upper level low (540 meters) centered over Central Manitoba Province. Strong 90 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls covered a broad area from Central Canada south-southeast through the Great Lakes Today due to the storm and upper trough across our area. A new storm with an area of 60-90 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls was centered over Western Canada into Northwest Washington state Today with an area of strong upper level winds up to 110 knots streaking into the Pacific Northwest This Afternoon per RUC model analysis.

(Tonight)

Strong low pressure of 992 mb will deepen to around 990 mb as it continues to lift north-east into Northern Lake Michigan/Northwest Lower Michigan toward Midnight. Rain and a mixture of rain and wet snow will continue across Northwest Wisconsin into Northeast and Eastern Minnesota This Evening with precipitation turning over to wet snow as colder air continues to get drawn into the backside of this storm system. Some of the snow could be heavy at times especially in Northwest Wisconsin where 1-3" of slushy accumulation could fall by early Tomorrow...Most of the snow will accumulate away from Lake Superior. Snowfall amounts in Northeast and Eastern Minnesota should be under an inch. Precipitation will end from west to east across our area during the night...Ending first in the Minnesota areas between 7 PM-Midnight with the last areas to see precipitation taper off occurring from Ashland and Hurley down toward Park Falls and Hayward...Precipitation in those areas probably will not end until around 1-2 AM. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with lows in the 20s and 30s. Look for north, east, or west winds under 20 mph.

Note: *Winter Weather Advisory* remains in effect until 1 AM CDT Tonight for Ashland...Iron...And Price Counties in Northwest Wisconsin.

(Saturday and Saturday Night)

Will see a brief break in the precipitation across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Saturday as Today's storm moves into Eastern Canada while the next system to affect our weather remaining over the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains on Saturday. Look for partly sunny-partly cloudy skies Tomorrow with highs in the 30s and 40s. Winds will be out of the north, west, or south under 20 mph. Expect mostly cloudy skies Saturday Night with some light rain possible over most areas as low pressure pushes into Western Minnesota. Lows Tomorrow Night will be mainly in the 30s with south or east winds under 20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

Chances for some rain will continue across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Sunday into Monday as low pressure and an upper level trough amplifies somewhat across the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes region. Temperatures aloft are forecast to cool into the zero to -2 degree C range later this weekend into early next week and this could support some wet snow mixing in with the rain for parts of our area...Although right now it does not look like will see any accumulating snow with this system for our area. High temperatures Sunday and Monday will be mainly in the 40s with lows Sunday Night and Monday Night in the 20s and 30s.

The rest of next week could remain rather stormy but it will depend on the final outcome of the 500 mb flow pattern and how strong and far west-northwest an upper level ridge sets-up across the Southern-Eastern U.S. while a potentially very deep upper level trough develops across the Rockies and Plains. Forecast models this far out in time are not in very good agreement after Monday of next week...But that is not too unusual considering how far out in time this is.

The potential does exist for a major storm to eject north-east out of the Southern Rockies or Southern Plains sometime the middle or end of next week. This storm could bring heavy rain and wind to the area with a possible winter storm for the Northern Plains or Western High Plains region as very cold air drops south out of Western-Central Canada. Next week is a period to keep a close eye on but there is plenty of uncertainty with the long range forecast models at this time.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Wet snow away from Lake Superior possibly mixed with some drizzle at times. Snow accumulations up to an inch possible. Light rain and drizzle closer to Lake Superior could mix with some wet snow at times. Precipitation will end between 10 PM-Midnight. Partial clearing Overnight. Low 28 to 33. Wind north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. High 40 to 45. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy with some light rain developing. Low 33 to 36. Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

.Sunday... Mostly cloudy. Light rain at times. High 40 to 43. Chance of rain 60%.

.Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy. Light rain or snow possible. Low 33 to 35. Chance of precipitation 30%.

.Monday... Mostly cloudy. Light rain or snow possible. High 38 to 43. Chance of precipitation 30%.

.Monday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 33.

.Tuesday... Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. High 40 to 45. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 49 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 31 degrees

Tim

10/23/09: Winter Weather Headline Information

Issued at 8:34 AM CDT, Friday, October 23rd, 2009

Following headlines issued by the National Weather Service, Duluth, Minnesota.

*Winter Weather Advisory* has been issued for the following Counties in Northwest Wisconsin from 4 PM CDT This Afternoon until 1 AM CDT Saturday...Ashland WI...Iron WI...And Price WI... Some cities included in the advisory are: Ashland WI...Glidden WI...Mellen WI...Butternut WI...Upson WI...Hurley WI...Montreal WI...Mercer WI...Park Falls WI...Phillips WI...And Ogema WI...

Low pressure will intensify as it heads northeast out of Western Illinois Today reaching Northern Lower Michigan later Tonight...Precipitation in the form of rain will overspread the advisory area This Morning but colder air will begin to get drawn into the backside of the low pressure system from north to south across Northwestern Wisconsin This Afternoon and This Evening and that is when the rain will become mixed with wet snow and sleet with a change-over to wet snow taking place by This Evening with snow then continuing through about Midnight before ending Overnight.

The potential does exist for 1-4" of slushy snowfall in the advisory area by late Tonight with the higher accumulations expected inland from Lake Superior including areas such as Mellen...Upson...Butternut...And Mercer.

A winter weather advisory for snow means that periods of snow will cause some travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads and limited visibilities...And use caution while driving.

Tim

Thursday, October 22, 2009

10/22/09: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:52 PM CDT, Thursday, October 22nd, 2009

Snowfall recap from Wednesday's system that hit Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Data provided by the NWS, Duluth, Minnesota.

18 miles East-Southeast of Sea Gull Lake MN (Cook County) 3.0" reported at Rockwood Lodge at Poplar Lake

7 miles Northwest of Two Harbors MN (Lake County) 2.3"

5 miles North of Virginia MN (St. Louis County) 2.0"

Duluth MN NWS (St. Louis County) 2.1"

Culver MN (St. Louis County) 1.8"

3 miles Northeast of Finland MN (Lake County) 3.0" reported at the Wolf Ridge Observatory

Gile WI (Iron County) .5"

Precipitation total at the Duluth Airport from this latest storm:

1.30" two day precipitation total including 2.1" of snow at the Duluth Airport.

Weather tidbits for Duluth, MN. (Airport location)

-Average 1st date of 0.1" of snow is October 24th. This year it happened on October 10th

-Average 1st date of 1.0" of snow is November 4th. This year it happened on October 10th

-Duluth Airport has already recorded two 1 inch or greater snowfalls this month

-Average monthly temperature thru the 21st: 39.6 degrees which is 6.6 degrees below average

-Only 4 days this month with a high temperature at or above 50 degrees

-October 2008 produced 20 days with a high temperature at or above 50 degrees and 5 out of those 20 days had high temps in the 60s

-Precipitation total thru the 21st: 3.13" which is 1.37" above normal.

-Snowfall total thru the 21st: 3.2"

Note: Odds seem to be in our favor for things to turn around toward a warmer weather regime if history is to repeat itself... October 2002: 35.6 degree average temperature with November 2002 also below average...But, by December 2002 the average monthly temperature spiked to 6.1 degrees above average and December 2002 was also the 8th warmest December on record. Another example includes 1997 when October had near normal temps with November having below normal temps...And then December 1997 recorded an average temperature of almost 10 degrees above average and December 1997 ended up being the 2nd warmest December on record since 1941. One last example would be from 2006 when October of that year had an average monthly temperature of 39.8 degrees but by December of 2006 the average monthly temperature was 9.8 degrees above average.

A cold October does not mean that we will have a cold and wet Winter around here...Current trends would tend to favor that the rest of this month and at least the first week or so of November could feature more below average temperatures...But things could balance out by having much warmer than normal temperatures by December and January. It's going to be an interesting rest of Fall and Winter around the Upper Midwest to see how everything sets up. Right now odds would favor a colder than normal Winter based on how the weather pattern has evolved but only time will tell as to what actually transpires in the coming months.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Partly to mostly sunny skies were found in Northwest-far Western parts of our area Today while generally mostly cloudy skies prevailed for the rest of our area. Highs Today were in the 30s and 40s with 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranging from -1 to +3 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the north or east at 5-15 mph with some higher gusts near Lake Superior. Surface map as of 3 PM featured low pressure of 1002 mb centered over far Western Missouri with high pressure of 1024 mb centered to our north-west.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

H5 ridging was confined to the Southeast U.S. Today with upper level troughs traversing Northeast Canada and the Rockies/Northern Plains. A strong upper level low was found over Northcentral Kansas late Today per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery with a large area of 1.00"-2.20" PWS out ahead of this H5 low extending from Southern Wisconsin south to the Gulf Of Mexico.

Basically the overall 500 mb pattern will consist of a large trough of low pressure covering all but the Southern-Eastern U.S. into next week with several low pressure systems tracking out of the Pacific Northwest. Any one of those systems could bring periods of precipitation to our area through next week...The big questions deal with temperatures and if any of these storms bring any siginificant amounts of snow to our area or if they continue to produce rain or a mix of rain and snow with only minor snow accumulations. Trends favor the latter solution...Although every one of these storms have to be watched very closely.

(Tonight)

Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with high pressure off to our north while low pressure currently in Western Missouri tracks east-northeast toward Westcentral Illinois by Morning. Precipitation associated with this storm will remain to our south Tonight but some spotty lake effect drizzle or flurries could develop at times near Lake Superior. Lows Tonight will be in the 20s and 30s with north or east winds under 20 mph.

(Friday and Friday Night)

Low pressure will strengthen from 1002 mb to around 993 mb as it moves toward Chicago Illinois on Friday then toward Northern Lower Michigan by Friday Night...This low will spread some rain or a mixture of rain and wet snow into Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota on Friday with precipitation continuing into Friday Night although it will end from west to east during the night. Right now it appears that the best chance for precipitation during this period will be found south-east of a line from Hinckley Minnesota to Ashland Wisconsin...But some light precipitation could extend as far west as Aitkin...Duluth...And up the North Shore of Lake Superior toward Friday Afternoon and Evening. Temperatures aloft will be marginal for an all snow event as 850 mb temperatures stay around zero degrees C...However there could be a few locations across Northwest Wisconsin that change-over to a period of snow Friday Evening and if that happens then there could be around an inch or two of slushy snow accumulation. Look for mostly cloudy skies during this period with the best chance for seeing some sun on Friday occurring in Northwest parts of our area. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s and 30s. Winds during this period will be out of the north or east at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts near Lake Superior.

(Extended Forecast)

Friday's storm will track into Eastern Canada on Saturday while the next low pressure system approaches the area from the Northern Plains later this weekend. This next disturbance will bring some more precipitation to our area especially for Sunday and Monday with some rain or possibly a mix of rain and wet snow occurring across our area. Chances for accumulating snow seems fairly low at this point since the temperature profile of the atmosphere look marginal for any sort of big snowfall...May see a brief break in the action early next week before another upper level trough and area of low pressure passes through sometime the middle or end of next week.

High temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night in the 20s and 30s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Light rain possible during the Afternoon. High 35 to 40. Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Light rain or wet snow possible during the Evening. Low 28 to 33. Wind north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. High 40 to 45.

.Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.

.Sunday... Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. High 40 to 45. Chance of rain 30%.

.Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy. Rain or snow possible. Low 30 to 35. Chance of precipitation 30%.

.Monday... Mostly cloudy. Rain or snow possible. High 38 to 43. Chance of precipitation 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 50 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 32 degrees

Tim

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

10/21/09: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:13 PM CDT, Wednesday, October 21st, 2009

Weather pattern has turned active and it looks to remain that way into next week...Longer range GFS model over the last few days has also been showing that a very cold airmass could set-up across much of the U.S. as we end October and move into early November.

Note on Today's snow: The change-over from rain to wet snow happened later than expected Today and as a result snowfall amounts have been much lower than what was forecasted. Here are a few snowfall reports through 2:30-3 PM Today.

Finland MN (Lake County) .5"

Duluth MN NWS (St. Louis County) .8"

Note: Wet snow did mix with the rain at times This Afternoon below the hill in Duluth, however no snow accumulation has occurred and as of 4 PM precipitation has switched back to a cold rain.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

An area of low pressure of 1011 mb has moved into extreme Southeast Minnesota as of 3 PM with a stationary front extending from Southern Wisconsin to Central Iowa down to Central Kansas. Deep moisture with dewpoints in the 50s to around 60 degrees along with +10 degree C H85 td's and 1.00"-1.30" PWS were found south-southeast of this low Today and this moisture has been lifting up and over the front to our south into cooler air which was found across most of our area Today. This process led to widespread rain across Northwest Wisconsin...Eastcentral Minnesota into Northeast Minnesota with the rain mixing with and turning to wet snow from north to south in Northeast Minnesota Today as colder air gets drawn into the storm circulation thanks to high pressure of 1024-1026 mb which was centered across Central Canada Today. The change-over from rain to snow did not occur quite as fast as expected Today and thus snow amounts have been on the low side of things so far. High temperatures were in the 30s and 40s Today across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranging from +1 to +3 degrees C across Southern parts of Northwest Wisconsin to zero to -3 degrees C across the rest of Northwest Wisconsin back through Northeastern Minnesota. Winds Today were out of the north or east at 10-20 mph but gusts to 30 to 40 mph have been occurring near Lake Superior.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

A very active weather pattern has developed around the U.S. One system continued to progress north-east across the Upper Midwest with a shortwave trough currently over the Northern Plains and moving east. A stronger storm system was centered over the Southern Rockies. A strong H3 wind max of 100-130 knots was located north of Minnesota across Central Ontario Province This Afternoon per RUC model analysis and this has helped in generating the precipitation that fell around our area Today.

(Tonight)

Low pressure which was over far Southeast Minnesota late Today will continue on it's northeast track and will reach Northern Lower Michigan later Tonight while high pressure remains to our north. Rain across Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota will continue This Evening but will taper off from west to east during the night. Some wet snow could mix with the rain at times but little if any snow accumulation is expected in these areas. Wet snow or a mix of rain and wet snow will continue This Evening across Northeast Minnesota with total snow accumulations of 1-3" possible away from Lake Superior across Cook...Lake...And St. Louis Counties. Look for mostly cloudy skies This Evening with some clearing working south-east Overnight. Lows Tonight will be in the 20s and 30s with north or east winds at 10-20 mph with higher gusts early near Lake Superior.

Note: *Winter Weather Advisory* continues until 900 PM CDT This Evening for Lake and Cook Counties in Northeast Minnesota with a *Winter Weather Advisory* set to expire at 600 PM CDT This Evening for Central St. Louis County in Northeast Minnesota.

Thursday and Thursday Night

The next storm system to keep tabs on was currently in Western Texas with another low across Southern Kansas at this time. These two lows will merge during this period across Missouri while high pressure continues to sit to our north. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin during this period with mainly dry conditions expected. Highs Thursday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Thursday Night in the 20s and 30s. Winds will be out of the north or east under 20 mph. There is a small chance that we could see a few lake effect snow or rain showers at times along the North and South Shore of Lake Superior Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night but the overall lake effect set-up is not very ideal for widespread or significant amounts of precipitation.

(Extended Forecast)

The storm over the Southern Plains Today will lift northeast and is forecast to be near Chicago Illinois or a little west or east of that area by Friday Night. This storm track is somewhat more to the west-northwest than what most forecast models were showing 24 hours ago. It should be noted that there continues to be storm track differences between the models Today and this will play a role on our weather since if this storm takes a more west-northwest track then it will spread some snow or rain into Northwest Wisconsin...Eastcentral and Northeast Minnesota Friday into early Saturday...However if the storm track is farther south-east then it looks like Friday/Saturday would be dry for all of our area.

This storm has to be watched closely since it could lay down a swath of significant snow on it's west-northwest side...Right now this looks like it would set-up south and east of our local area...But that could change.

High temperatures on Friday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Friday Night in the 20s and 30s.

Now on Saturday there are big differences showing up between Today's 12z GFS and the WRF/NAM forecast in regards to temperatures. NAM forecast brings high temps in the 40s and 50s for most of our area with 850 mb temps climbing toward +4 degrees C. GFS on the other hand keeps it colder on Saturday with highs in the 30s and 40s with 850 mb temps staying around zero degrees C or a little lower. Differences seem to stem from the handling of Friday's storm with the GFS showing a slower and more west track to this system compared to the WRF model which keeps it farther east from our area.

Next system that could affect us would do so during the Sunday-Monday time period and this system could bring another round of rain and or snow with the possibility for some accumulating snow setting up for some parts of our area.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Wet snow or a mixture of wet snow and drizzle will end between 8 PM-10 PM away from Lake Superior. Total snow accumulations of an inch. Light rain and drizzle which could mix with wet snow at times near Lake Superior will end between 8 PM-10 PM. Cloudy with some partial clearing possible Overnight. Low 28 to 33. Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph early near Lake Superior.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. High 40 to 45. Wind northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 28 to 33. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. High 38 to 43.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 28 to 33.

.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. High 38 to 43.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 28 to 33.

.Sunday... Increasing cloudiness. Rain or snow possible. High 38 to 43. Chance of precipitation 30%.

Normal High Temperature Today 50 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 33 degrees

Tim