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Showing posts from October, 2009

10/31/09: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:52 PM CDT, Saturday, October 31st, 2009

*Don't forget to fall back one hour...Turn your clocks back one hour Tonight!

***Happy Halloween to everyone, have a safe and fun time Tonight***

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies were found across our area Today with some passing flurries, sprinkles, and snow showers at times but little if any accumulations were reported. Highs Today were in the 30s and lower 40s with 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranging from -4 to -5 degrees C. Winds were out of the west or northwest at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts. Surface map as of 4 PM features an intense area of low pressure centered in Northeast Canada with low pressure of 996 mb centered over the Eastern Alberta-Western Saskatchewan Province area with a warm front attached to this low centered over the Western Dakotas.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Northwest flow aloft was in control across the…

10/30/09: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:38 PM CDT, Friday, October 30th, 2009

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

A powerful upper level trough and area of low pressure was shifting north-northeast across the Upper Midwest Today with the surface low as of 3 PM centered near Hibbing Minnesota with a pressure down to 981 mb! The surface low has deepened 9 mb over the last 9 hours or 15 mb since 11 PM last night. Some of the lowest pressure readings as of 3 PM ranged from 28.99" at Grand Rapids to 28.95" at Orr to 28.96" at Cook and 28.99" at Eveleth. Lowest pressure at the Duluth Airport has been 29.04" so far...But this may drop a little more over the next hour or so.

An occluded front attached to this low lifted north-east through our area This Morning through about Midday Today and brought with it an area of rain showers. A dry slot followed the occluded front with this feature affecting all of Northwest Wisconsin west through Easter…

10/30/09: Midday Storm Update

Issued at 1:41 PM CDT, Friday, October 30th, 2009

...As of 100 PM CDT low pressure of 985 mb was centered near Aitkin Minnesota with the best pressure falls lying across Northeastern Minnesota so the low should continue on it's northeast track toward the Iron Range through late This Afternoon while continuing to deepen probably toward 980-982 mb by 400 PM...

The occluded front attached to the low has swung north-east through all but the Arrowhead of Minnesota as of early Afternoon. There is a band of showers occurring near this front in Cook and Lake Counties in Northeast Minnesota but this activity was lifting rapidly into Southern Ontario Province.

Dry slot has actually allowed some sunshine to break out from the Twin Ports south along the I35 corridor in Eastern Minnesota and east into much of Northwestern Wisconsin. early This Afternoon with temperatures warming well into the 50s and 60s early This Afternoon across Northwest Wisconsin back through the Twin Ports and points sout…

10/30/09: Morning Storm Update

Issued at 7:55 AM CDT, Friday, October 30th, 2009

...As of 7 AM CDT low pressure of 990 mb was centered in Southwestern Minnesota or between the cities of Tracy and Walnut Grove...Best pressure falls up to 3 mb/2 hours were found across Northeastern Minnesota early This Morning per RUC model analysis and this lines up pretty well with where this area of low pressure should end up by This Afternoon.

This low has deepened about 6 mb over the past 8 hours and further deepening can be expected into Tonight.

As the low heads into Northeast Minnesota This Afternoon the pressures should be down to around 985-986 mb with pressures dropping to between 976-981 mb This Evening as the low heads toward the Lake Nipigon/Thunder Bay Ontario Canada areas.

The upper level low as of 7 AM was located across Eastern Nebraska (540 meters) with powerful jet stream winds of 90-120 knots at 500 mb extending from Central Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin south-southwest through the Central Plains with 300 mb wind …

10/30/09: Dense Fog Advisory Information

Issued at 7:46 AM CDT, Friday, October 30th, 2009

Following headline issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

*Dense Fog Advisory* is in effect until 500 PM CDT This Evening for parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Counties included in the advisory are:

Southern Cook MN...Southern Lake MN...Southern St. Louis MN...Carlton MN...And Douglas WI...

Some cities included in the advisory are:

Grand Portage MN...Grand Marais MN...Silver Bay MN...Two Harbors MN...Duluth MN...Brookston MN...Floodwood MN...Cloquet MN...Moose Lake MN...Superior WI...Poplar WI...And Solon Springs WI...

Very moist air running north out ahead of a strengthening area of low pressure centered in Southwestern Minnesota early This Morning has resulted in the development of thick fog across parts of the advisory area. Visibilities in some locations have been down to one quarter mile or less at times. The fog will impact Highway 61 along the North Shore of Lake Superior down through the Twin P…

10/29/09: Late Night Storm Update

Issued at 11:38 PM CDT, Thursday, October 29th, 2009

...Low pressure of 996 mb has moved into extreme Southeast Nebraska or near Beatrice as of 11 PM CDT...

Rain helped along by a 40 knot S-SWRLY H85 jet has shifted east into Wisconsin late This Evening in an area of strong moist advection...But scattered rains have re-developed within the past hour or so across parts of Northcentral through Eastcentral Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin as the main surface low and powerful upper level trough with it's impressive height falls push north-northeast into the Upper Midwest. Also seeing very good frontogenesis develop late This Evening across much of Central Minnesota.

Latest model guidance is in fairly good agreement in showing the low pushing north-northeast toward Central Minnesota toward Noon Friday then passing west-north of Duluth Friday Afternoon then reaching the Thunder Bay Ontario Canada area Friday Evening. The low is forecast to deepen to around 985 mb on Friday and to around …

10/29/09: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:13 PM CDT, Thursday, October 29th, 2009

Note: Rainfall total at the Duluth Airport through 5 PM Today: 0.35"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Low pressure of 998 mb was centered over Southeastern Kansas as of 3 PM Today or between the cities of Arkansas City and Sedan. A stationary front was draped from Southeastern Manitoba Province down toward the Eastern North Dakota-Northwest Minnesota state line to Eastern South Dakota to the Eastern half of Nebraska. Unusually high amounts of moisture on strong southerly winds have pushed north into the Upper Midwest out ahead of the front and surface low. This moisture combined with a couple of upper level disturbances lifting north-northeast through our area has brought widespread rain to Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today. Most of the rain has been on the light side but there has been some moderate to heavier showers moving through on occasion. Rainfal…

10/29/09: Storm Update

Issued at 9:10 AM CDT, Thursday, October 29th, 2009

...00z model run from last night has made some changes to the storm track/intensity...

The 18z NAM from Wednesday seemed to be latching onto something which the 00z model run followed up on late last night. It now appears that the surface low will end up tracking farther south-east then expected with the low passing very close to Duluth on Friday then up toward Thunder Bay Ontario Canada by Mid or Late Afternoon Friday. The low is still forecast to deepen, however it may not deepen as much as what was forecasted recently. Still it does appear that will be seeing pressures drop to around 985 mb or so as the low heads into Northeast Minnesota Friday Afternoon.

What this means is that the dry slot may impact a smaller part of our area and with the slower timing of the surface low any dry slotting would occur Friday Morning into Midday Friday. Northwest Wisconsin will have the best chance at getting dry slotted based on the new storm tr…

10/28/09: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:39 PM CDT, Wednesday, October 28th, 2009

Storm Impacts thru Friday...

-Major winter storm for the Rockies...Western High Plains...And Northern Plains...

-Rain/isolated thunder risk spreads into the Upper Midwest...

-Strong winds developing Thursday through early Saturday...

-Impressive upper level wind field overspreads the Upper Midwest Thursday/Friday...

-Dry slot surges north-east ending the widespread rain threat Thursday Night...

-Powerhouse vort max blasts thru Friday Morning...

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

First signs of the storm set to hit our area was seen Today as low level moisture streams north into the Upper Midwest which resulted in the development of low level cloudiness along with areas of haze and fog. There's also been a few light rain showers at times mainly in Western-Northern parts of our area Today. High temperatures were in the 40s to around 50 degrees for most areas in Northern Minnesota and …

10/27/09: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:23 PM CDT, Tuesday, October 27th, 2009

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

A very nice day for most of our area as sunshine and a breezy south wind allowed high temperatures to reach normal to even 5 degrees or so above normal for late October. Clouds were a bit more widespread across Western-Northwest parts of our area and also across far Northeast Minnesota. Highs Today were generally in the 50s with 40s in far Northeast Minnesota. 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +2 to around +6 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the south or southeast at 10-20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph thanks to a strong H85 jet which was up to 40 knots This Afternoon across parts of the Upper Midwest. Surface map as of 4 PM featured low pressure of 994 mb centered over Southeast Saskatchewan Province with a 994 mb low covering Northeast Colorado. A cold front extended from the Central Dakotas to Northern Colorado. A few other lo…

10/27/09: Quick update on late week storm

...Model trends from late last night into Today show a much faster track to the storm with less deepening until the low pressure center passes north of Minnesota from late Friday into Saturday...

Bottom line:

Best rain chances for Duluth will come Thursday-early Friday. Winds should not be as strong Friday-Saturday, although it still looks quite brisk, probably around 30 mph or so from the west. Snow chances are limited behind the low and mainly confined to late Friday Night-Saturday.

Stay tuned, models have been shifting back and fourth on this system and they could trend deeper and slower again, but the latest trend is for a much faster storm track with the best deepening not occurring until the low gets into Ontario Province Canada.

Tim

10/26/09: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:54 PM CDT, Monday, October 26th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 1989... A record high temperature of 75 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather tidbits:

-Average monthly temperature at the Duluth Airport 38.7 degrees through the 25th which at this time makes it the 5th coldest October of all time in Duluth. The coldest October ever in Duluth was set in 1917 with an average monthly temperature of 35.5 degrees. 2nd coldest was 36.8 degrees set in 2002. 3rd coldest was 36.9 degrees set in 1925. 4th coldest was 38.2 degrees set in 1952.

*2 of the top 10 coldest Octobers at Duluth occurred after the year 2000 and if this October stays in the top 10 then that will have 3 of the top 10 coldest Octobers having occurred after the year 2000.

-October 2009 has only had 1 day with a high temperature of 56 degrees. 1917 was the only other year that produced just 1 day during October with a high temperature of 56 degrees in Duluth.

-October 2009 and October 1917 are the onl…

10/25/09: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:37 PM CDT, Sunday, October 25th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 1989... A record high temperature of 72 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Cloudy skies prevailed over all of our area Today with light rain and drizzle affecting parts of Northwest Wisconsin into Northeast Minnesota. Some wet snow has mixed in with the rain at times Today mainly across the Arrowhead of Minnesota away from Lake Superior. Highs Today were in the 30s and 40s with 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranging from +1 to -3 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the north or east under 20 mph with some higher gusts closer to Lake Superior. Surface map at 4 PM Today featured high pressure of 1024 mb centered over Eastern Ontario Province with several weak areas of low pressure of around 1014 mb centered to our south in Western and Eastern Wisconsin with other lows over Northwest Missouri and Central Oklahoma. A cold…

10/24/09: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:06 PM CDT, Saturday, October 24th, 2009

Precipitation total at the Duluth Airport from Friday:

.19" with .5" of new snow.

Weather History:

On this date in 1998... A record high temperature of 71 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Snowfall reports from Northwest Wisconsin on Friday, October 23rd, 2009. Data provided by the NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

2 miles East of Butternut WI (Ashland County) 5.0"

Montreal WI (Iron County) 6.0"

Butternut WI (Ashland WI) 4.5"

Gile WI (Iron WI) 7.0"

Glidden WI (Ashland County) 4.0"

4 miles West of Clam Lake WI (Bayfield County) 3.0"

Upson WI (Iron County) 6.0"

Mercer WI (Iron County) 4.0"

3 miles West of Phillips WI (Price County) 2.0"

Hurley WI (Iron County) 3.0"

Here are some low temperatures that occurred earlier Today, Saturday, October 24th, 2009.

International Falls MN: 18 degrees

Crane Lake MN: 18 degrees

Embarrass MN: 19 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: 19 degrees

Hibbing MN: 20 degree…

10/23/09: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:26 PM CDT, Friday, October 23rd, 2009

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Low pressure of 992 mb was centered near Milwaukee Wisconsin as of 4 PM Today with strong 3 mb/2 hour pressure falls found from Central Upper Michigan to Northern Lower Michigan This Afternoon. Widespread rain associated with this storm shifted north and covered all of Northwest Wisconsin Today with the rain area also shifting northwest into Eastern and Northeast Minnesota. The majority of the precipitation Today fell east of a line from Ely to Aitkin with the heaviest precipitation falling in Northwest Wisconsin. Colder air on the northwest side of the low was starting to change the rain to a mixture of rain and wet snow over portions of Northwest Wisconsin late Today but overall the precipitation has fallen in liquid form for areas that did see precipitation Today. High temperatures Today were generally in the 30s to lower 40s with 850 mb tempe…

10/23/09: Winter Weather Headline Information

Issued at 8:34 AM CDT, Friday, October 23rd, 2009

Following headlines issued by the National Weather Service, Duluth, Minnesota.

*Winter Weather Advisory* has been issued for the following Counties in Northwest Wisconsin from 4 PM CDT This Afternoon until 1 AM CDT Saturday...Ashland WI...Iron WI...And Price WI... Some cities included in the advisory are: Ashland WI...Glidden WI...Mellen WI...Butternut WI...Upson WI...Hurley WI...Montreal WI...Mercer WI...Park Falls WI...Phillips WI...And Ogema WI...

Low pressure will intensify as it heads northeast out of Western Illinois Today reaching Northern Lower Michigan later Tonight...Precipitation in the form of rain will overspread the advisory area This Morning but colder air will begin to get drawn into the backside of the low pressure system from north to south across Northwestern Wisconsin This Afternoon and This Evening and that is when the rain will become mixed with wet snow and sleet with a change-over to wet snow taking place by This…

10/22/09: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:52 PM CDT, Thursday, October 22nd, 2009

Snowfall recap from Wednesday's system that hit Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Data provided by the NWS, Duluth, Minnesota.

18 miles East-Southeast of Sea Gull Lake MN (Cook County) 3.0" reported at Rockwood Lodge at Poplar Lake

7 miles Northwest of Two Harbors MN (Lake County) 2.3"

5 miles North of Virginia MN (St. Louis County) 2.0"

Duluth MN NWS (St. Louis County) 2.1"

Culver MN (St. Louis County) 1.8"

3 miles Northeast of Finland MN (Lake County) 3.0" reported at the Wolf Ridge Observatory

Gile WI (Iron County) .5"

Precipitation total at the Duluth Airport from this latest storm:

1.30" two day precipitation total including 2.1" of snow at the Duluth Airport.

Weather tidbits for Duluth, MN. (Airport location)

-Average 1st date of 0.1" of snow is October 24th. This year it happened on October 10th

-Average 1st date of 1.0" of snow is November 4th. This year it h…

10/21/09: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:13 PM CDT, Wednesday, October 21st, 2009

Weather pattern has turned active and it looks to remain that way into next week...Longer range GFS model over the last few days has also been showing that a very cold airmass could set-up across much of the U.S. as we end October and move into early November.

Note on Today's snow: The change-over from rain to wet snow happened later than expected Today and as a result snowfall amounts have been much lower than what was forecasted. Here are a few snowfall reports through 2:30-3 PM Today.

Finland MN (Lake County) .5"

Duluth MN NWS (St. Louis County) .8"

Note: Wet snow did mix with the rain at times This Afternoon below the hill in Duluth, however no snow accumulation has occurred and as of 4 PM precipitation has switched back to a cold rain.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

An area of low pressure of 1011 mb has moved into extreme Southeast Minnesota as of 3 PM with …