Wednesday, September 30, 2009

9/30/09: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:48 PM CDT, Wednesday, September 30th, 2009

Widespread frost and a hard killing freeze occurred over most of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin early This Morning. Here are some low temperatures from Today, Wednesday, September 30th, 2009. Data provided by the NWS, Duluth, Minnesota.

Embarrass MN: 20 degrees

Babbitt MN: 23 degrees

Hibbing MN: 23 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: 24 degrees

3 miles South of Tower MN: 25 degrees

Grand Marais MN (Airport) 25 degrees

Silver Bay MN: 25 degrees

Ely MN: 27 degrees

Cook MN: 27 degrees

International Falls MN: 28 degrees

Cloquet MN: 28 degrees

Grand Rapids MN: 32 degrees

Duluth MN (NWS) 33 degrees

Duluth MN (Airport) 36 degrees

Sky Harbor MN: 37 degrees

Hayward WI: 22 degrees

3 miles North of Butternut WI: 25 degrees

Sarona WI: 26 degrees

Phillips WI: 27 degrees

Superior WI: 28 degrees

Upson WI: 28 degrees

Solon Springs WI: 28 degrees

Ashland WI: 29 degrees

Bayfield WI: 32 degrees

Note: Going into Today, the average monthly temperature for September 2009 was 62.7 degrees at the Duluth Airport. Warmest September on record is 62.6 degrees which was set in 1897. It does not appear that we will break the all time warmest September on record, but September 2009 will likely rank 2nd or 3rd warmest of all time. Precipitation wise we picked up 1.40" of rain during September which is well below our average of 4.13".

Weather tidbits:

-Gusty east winds to linger through Friday Evening

-Strong Western storm to bring some rain to parts of our area starting on Thursday

-Numerous winter storm warnings/advisories have been issued for the Northern Rockies/Western South Dakota area due to this storm

-Another storm possible the early or mid part of next week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Sunshine was in abundance across most of our area Today with some lake clouds passing overhead near Lake Superior. Highs Today were in the 40s and 50s with 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranging from +3 to +6 degrees C. A very dry airmass continued to sit over our area Today with dewpoints generally in the 30s to near 40 degrees with Afternoon PWS under 0.40". Winds Today were out of the east at 10-20 mph. Surface map as of 3 PM featured high pressure of 1026 mb centered over Northwest Ontario Province with a high pressure ridge of 1018-1022 mb extending from Central Lake Superior to Northern Alabama. Low pressure centers of 995-997 mb were located over the Western High Plains/Northern Rockies with widespread 2-3 mb/2 hour pressure falls occurring This Afternoon across the Northern-Central Plains into the Upper Midwest.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Very cold H5 trough (558 meters) with -28 degree C upper level temperatures covered the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest Today with strong 60-120 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls occurring Today across the Northern and Central Plains west to the Rockies in association with this Autumn storm. Strong H5 low (546 meters) was centered over Central Quebec Province This Afternoon with an upper level trough in place across Eastern Canada and the Northeast U.S. In between the troughs out west and out east was an upper level ridge which covered parts of the Upper Midwest Today.

(Tonight)

Clear-partly cloudy skies are expected across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with areas of frost developing late...especially across Northwest Wisconsin. Strong high pressure will be centered to our northeast while low pressure remains over the Western High Plains region. Lows Tonight will be in the 30s to low 40s but some 20s are possible mainly in Northwest Wisconsin and perhaps in extreme Northeast Minnesota. Winds Tonight will be out of the east at 5-15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

(Thursday and Thursday Night)

Strong low pressure will be centered over Nebraska and South Dakota during this period while high pressure remains off to our northeast. The pressure difference between these two features will result in some gusty easterly winds across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Thursday and Thursday Night. 850 mb wind speeds are forecast to increase to 30-45 knots during this period and this should result in 15-25 mph sustained wind speeds with gusts of 30-40 mph. Some of the strongest winds could set-up near Lake Superior with near gale force wind gusts possibly developing on Western Lake Superior by Thursday Evening.

The low to our southwest will try to pull some deeper moisture up into our area but at the same-time the high to our northeast will bring drier air southwest into our area. How far north will the rain shield set-up during this period is the big question right now with the 12z NAM/WRF more south compared to the 12z GFS/UK models...although the latest 18z NAM/WRF model has trended slightly more north with the rain band compared to it's 12z run.

Right now it would appear that the better chance for rain will occur south and west of a line from Cass Lake Minnesota to Moose Lake Minnesota to Phillips Wisconsin with the Iron Range and Arrowhead of Minnesota staying dry through Thursday Night. It will take a while for the rain to reach into our area...but it should do so from south to north Thursday Afternoon or Thursday Evening in Western-Southern portions of our local area. Highs Thursday will be in the 40s and 50s with a few locales possibly near 60 degrees. Lows Thursday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.

(Extended Forecast)

Strong low pressure is forecast to track from Iowa to Lake Michigan during the Friday-Saturday time frame. Some rain occurring on the north and eventually northwest side of this low will impact Northwest Wisconsin and parts of Eastcentral Minnesota for Friday and Saturday. Also it appears that some lake effect rain showers will develop and affect portions of the North and South Shore of Lake Superior from Friday into Saturday as colder 850 mb temps develop and come into contact with milder temperatures over Lake Superior. Favorable E-NE winds which will veer more northerly by Saturday will also help in producing some lake effect rain showers near Lake Superior during the Friday-Saturday time frame. High temperatures Friday and Saturday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Friday Night and Saturday Night in the 30s and 40s.

Looks like most of our area will have dry conditions for Sunday and Monday before the next large Western U.S. trough and area of low pressure push out into the Plains. Differences in the track of the low and the overall timing of this system does exist Today with the long range forecast models...but right now it does appear that almost all of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will see some rain out of this storm during the early to mid part of next week.

Temperatures behind this storm could become cold enough and that combined with lowering 500 mb heights and colder H85 temps could result in some snow shower/snow flurry activity at times as we move into late next week or next weekend across parts of our area. GFS long range model continues to show this trend Today...although it could still change since it's over a week away.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Scattered lake clouds otherwise partly cloudy. Low 37 to 42. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday... Windy. Mostly cloudy. High 50 to 55. Wind east at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph possible.

.Thursday Night... Windy. Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. Low 38 to 43. Wind east at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph possible. Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday... Windy. Mostly cloudy. Occasional rain possible. High 45 to 50. Wind east to northeast at 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts possible. Chance of rain 40%.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. Low 37 to 42. Chance of rain 40%.

.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. High 48 to 53. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 37 to 42.

.Sunday... Partly sunny. High 50 to 55.

Normal High Temperature Today 59 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 40 degrees

Tim

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

9/29/09: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:17 PM CDT, Tuesday, September 29th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 1984... A record low temperature of 25 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Weather tidbits:

-Frost/freeze expected for most of our area Tonight

-Easterly winds to increase the next couple of days

-Big Western storm set to move into the Plains through late this week

-First snows for Northern Minnesota/Northwest Wisconsin of Autumn 2009 could fall out in the two week time period?

Strong winds affected portions of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Monday due to a powerful area of low pressure (984 mb) over Central Lake Superior and an area of high pressure which was off to our northwest. Here are some of the higher wind gusts that occurred on Monday. Information provided by the National Weather Service, Duluth, Minnesota.

Grand Marais MN (Bay) 67 mph

Devils Island WI: 56 mph

Grand Marais MN (Airport) 51 mph

Silver Bay MN: 48 mph

Port Wing WI: 47 mph

Cloquet MN: 46 mph

Hibbing MN: 46 mph

Duluth MN: 45 mph

Saxon Harbor WI: 44 mph

Superior WI: 43 mph

Grand Rapids MN: 40 mph

Brainerd MN: 40 mph

Note: Average first date of frost during the Autumn season is September 20th at the Duluth Airport.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Clouds which covered portions of our area This Morning gave way to Afternoon sunshine from north to south as a very dry airmass filtered south out of Central Canada into the Upper Midwest. Highs Today were in the 40s and 50s with 7 PM 850 mb temperatures ranging from +1 to +7 degrees C. The heart of the cold air which was over our area 24 hours ago has lifted into into Central-Eastern Ontario Province early This Evening where zero to -4 degree C H85 temps were found. Winds Today were much lighter compared to Monday with north or east winds under 20 mph Today. Surface map as of 7 PM featured high pressure of 1030 mb centered over Northwest Ontario Province with a ridge of high pressure 1018-1022 mb extending south into the Upper Midwest and Eastern Plains. Low pressure of 998 mb was centered over Northwest Utah.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Northwest flow aloft was in place across the Upper Midwest early This Evening with Monday's strong H5 trough (546 meters) covering the Northeast U.S./Eastern Canada while upper level ridging (576 meters) was found across the Northern Plains. A strong storm with 60-90 meter 500 mb 12 hour height falls was found across the Western U.S. or west of the Front Range of the Rockies with a very cold upper level trough digging south-southeast out of the Pacific Northwest.

(Tonight)

Strong high pressure will cover our area Tonight with mostly clear skies and fairly light winds. This combined with a bone dry airmass with PWS around .30" will allow surface temperatures to drop into the 20s and 30s for all of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Widespread frost and a killing freeze is anticipated for most of our local area by Morning. There could also be some patchy fog Overnight. Winds will be out of the north or east under 15 mph.

(Wednesday and Wednesday Night)

Strong high pressure will be centered to our north-east during this period while a powerful upper level trough and area of low pressure continue to track east toward the Northern Rockies and Western High Plains. Look for sunny-mostly sunny skies on Wednesday with highs in the 50s to around 60 degrees. Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 30s and 40s. Winds during this period will be out of the east at 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

The period from Thursday through Saturday will be characterized by strong high pressure sitting to our north while a decent size storm tracks off to our south...most likely from Nebraska toward Chicago...then into Eastern Canada this weekend. The pressure difference between the low to our south and high pressure to our north will result in some rather gusty east winds around our immediate area later this week. 850 mb winds are forecast to range from 30-45 knots and some of this will mix down to the surface...especially near Lake Superior where wind gusts of 30 to even 40 plus mph are certainly possible toward Thursday and Friday. Rain associated with this storm will inch north and affect western-southern parts of our area from late Thursday through Saturday although the heaviest rains are expected to remain more into Western-Southern parts of Minnesota the way it looks now. Locations north of a line from Grand Rapids to Silver Bay should escape most of the rain later this week based on the latest storm track. Some lake effect rain showers could also develop and affect the North and South Shore of Lake Superior especially Friday and Saturday with favorable temperatures and winds in place.

High temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Thursday Night and Friday Night in the 30s and 40s.

Another storm system is forecast to dig into the Western U.S. this weekend and this system may affect our weather to some extent as we enter the middle portion of next week. After this storm...there is a possibility for a rather significant dump of cold air to drop south out of Central Canada into the Upper Midwest sometime late next week or next weekend which could set the stage for the first snowflakes of Autumn 2009...again though this is a long ways out and will likely see plenty of changes take place with the long range forecast models between now and then.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*Freeze Warning* in effect from Midnight CDT Tonight until 8 AM CDT Wednesday.

.Tonight... Fair. Widespread frost likely inland with scattered frost expected closer to Lake Superior. Patchy fog possible late. Low 30 to 35 Inland and 35 to 40 closer to Lake Superior. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Sunny. High 53 to 58. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 35 to 40. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday... Breezy. Increasing cloudiness. High 50 to 55. Wind east at 15 to 30 mph.

.Thursday Night... Breezy. Mostly cloudy with rain possible. Low 38 to 43. Wind east at 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday... Breezy. Mostly cloudy with rain possible. High 45 to 50. Wind east at 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday Night... Breezy. Mostly cloudy with rain possible. Low 37 to 42. Winds could gust to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. High 48 to 53. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 59 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 40 degrees

Tim

9/29/09: Frost/Freeze Headline Information

Issued at 2:13 PM CDT, Tuesday, September 29th, 2009

Following headlines issued by the National Weather Service, Duluth, Minnesota.

*Freeze Warning* in effect from Midnight CDT Tonight until 8 AM CDT Wednesday for the following Counties:

Koochiching MN...Itasca MN...Northern Cass MN...Northern Aitkin MN...Carlton MN...St. Louis MN...Lake MN...Cook MN...Douglas WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Iron WI...Washburn WI...Sawyer WI...and Price WI...

Some cities included in the warning are:

International Falls MN...Bigfork MN...Littlefork MN...Walker MN...Cass Lake MN...Hill City MN...Moose Lake MN...Cromwell MN...Carlton MN...Esko MN...Duluth MN...Floodwood MN...Cotton MN...Hibbing MN...Crane Lake MN...Ely MN...Hoyt Lakes MN...Two Harbors MN...Silver Bay MN...Whyte MN...Isabella MN...Forest Center MN...Tofte MN...Grand Marais MN...Grand Portage MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Patzau WI...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Mason WI...Cable WI...Ashland WI...Glidden WI...Hurley WI...Upson WI...Mercer WI...Minong WI...Shell Lake WI...Hayward WI...Winter WI...Exeland WI...Park Falls WI...Phillips WI...and Ogema WI...

Combination of clear skies and light winds will cause surface temperatures to drop into the 28-33 degree range across the warning area late Tonight and early Wednesday. Some of the traditional cold spots could even dip into the middle 20s. Temperatures next to Lake Superior will be somewhat warmer and are forecast to range from 32-36 degrees. Widespread frost and a hard freeze is expected by Morning across the warning area with scattered pockets of frost expected close to Lake Superior.

A freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

*Frost Advisory* in effect from Midnight CDT Tonight until 8 AM CDT Wednesday for the following Counties:

In Minnesota:

Southern Cass MN...Crow Wing MN...Southern Aitkin MN...Pine MN...and Burnett WI...

Some cities included in the advisory are:

Pine River MN...Leader MN...Pillager MN...Emily MN...Brainerd MN...Aitkin MN...Malmo MN...McGrath MN...Sandstone MN...Hinckley MN...Pine City MN...Danbury WI...Grantsburg WI...Siren WI...and Hertel WI...

Clear skies and light winds will result in surface temperatures falling into the 30-35 degree range across the advisory area which will result in the formation of frost late Tonight into early Wednesday. A few locales within the advisory area could even slip into the upper 20s for a time early Wednesday Morning.

A frost advisory means that frost is possible. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

Tim

Monday, September 28, 2009

9/28/09: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:22 PM CDT, Monday, September 28th, 2009

Note:

On August 31st, 2009 the high temperature reached 70 degrees at the Duluth Airport which was normal for the date...Since that day we had an additional 27 days where the high temperature was at or above normal at the Duluth Airport. We racked up 28 straight days or a 4 week stretch where the high temperature was at or above normal at the Duluth Airport. During those 28 days...21 of them had a high temperature at or above 70 degrees including 2 days with a high temperature of 80 degrees! This streak ended Today, September 28th, 2009.

Local storm reports from Sunday, September 27th, 2009. Information provided by the NWS, Duluth, MN.

250 PM CDT: 0.25" diameter hail at the Duluth Airport (St. Louis County) with lots of pea size hail at the NWS in Duluth which lasted 5 minutes.

330 PM CDT: 0.25" diameter hail at High Bridge WI (Ashland County) measured wind gust of 37 mph. Lots of pea size hail.

425 PM CDT: 0.75" diameter hail at Mercer WI (Iron Conty)

435 PM CDT: 0.25" diameter hail at Kennan WI (Price County)

Note:

Incredible height falls have taken place across the Upper Midwest over the past couple of days as the atmosphere under-went a dramatic change. Here are some 500 mb height fall changes that have occurred across the Upper Midwest. Comparing September 24th to Today September 28th. Higher heights result in warmer temperatures while lower heights indicate cooler temps and strong weather systems.

International Falls MN: 7 AM September 24th, 2009: 583 meters. Today: 545 meters

Minneapolis MN: 7 AM, September 24th, 2009: 583 meters. Today: 546 meters

Green Bay WI: 7 AM, September 24th, 2009: 584 meters. Today: 540 meters

Alpena MI: 8 AM, September 24th, 2009: 582 meters. Today: 535 meters

Weather tidbits:

-Strong winds continue Tonight

-Frost/freeze threat Tuesday Night

-Developing onshore winds could keep lakeshore communities frost free Tuesday Night

-Windy/damp late week system to affect our weather

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Powerful area of low pressure 984 mb was centered just northeast of Lake Huron or over the Southeast portion of Ontario Province Canada as of 3 PM Today. A secondary cold front associated with strong 2-3 mb/2 hour pressure rises has been pushing south through our local area Today with strong cold air advection developing in it's wake. High temperatures Today were in the 40s and 50s but some locales in far Northeast Minnesota have stayed in the 38-39 degree range Today! 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +1 to -2 degrees C. Strong north or northwest winds affected our area Today with wind speeds of 15-30 mph along with gusts from 30 to 45 mph. Intense winds greater than 50 mph have been buffeting the Arrowhead of Minnesota Today due to the pressure difference between the strong surface low to our east and high pressure of 1028 mb which was building south into Manitoba Province Canada.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Strong H5 low (540 meters) covered the Eastern Great Lakes/Eastern Ontario Province region This Afternoon with a north-northwest flow aloft in place across the Upper Midwest. Strong jet stream winds of 110-130 knots were in place This Afternoon west-south of this intense Great Lakes storm or from Westcentral Minnesota to Central Iowa to Eastern Missouri to West Virginia. Very impressive 120-180 meter 500 mb 12 hour height falls were occurring Today over the Ohio Valley/Eastern Great Lakes region near this Autumn storm. Meanwhile a strong upper level trough with equally strong 120-180 meter 500 mb 12 hour height falls were pushing through the Pacific Northwest/Western Canada/and the Northeast parts of the Pacific Ocean. In between these two weather systems was an upper level ridge which was in place across the Northern Rockies Today.

(Tonight)

Strong winds will continue across our area with intense low pressure well to our east with strong high pressure building south-southeast out of Manitoba Province. North to northwest winds at 15-30 mph will linger This Evening with gusts from 30-50 mph for areas within about 20-30 miles from Lake Superior. Winds should subside somewhat Overnight with wind speeds in the 10-20 mph range but gusts over 30 mph should continue near Lake Superior. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies Tonight with some rain showers at times across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Lake enhanced rainfall will continue Tonight along the South Shore of Lake Superior due to favorable winds and cold enough air moving over the warmer waters of Lake Superior. Lows Tonight will be in the 30s and 40s with a threat for some patchy frost over Western parts of our area...mainly in Cass...Crow Wing...Itasca...and Koochiching Counties.

(Tuesday and Tuesday Night)

High pressure will build into the Upper Midwest during this period with a crisp early Autumn airmass overhead. Look for partly cloudy-mostly sunny skies on Tuesday with clear-partly cloudy skies Tuesday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s and 30s. Widespread frost and a hard freeze is forecast to develop later Tomorrow Night over most of our area. Winds during this period will be out of the north, northwest, or east around 20 mph or less. With winds turning into the east this could keep temperatures warm enough to prevent frost from developing late Tuesday Night for areas in close proximity to Lake Superior...some lake clouds could also develop with such a cool airmass moving over Lake Superior.

(Extended Forecast)

High pressure will remain in control of our weather for Wednesday and Wednesday Night with highs mainly in the 50s and lows in the 30s and 40s. The period from Thursday through Saturday will feature a strong Western U.S. trough advancing slowly toward the north-east while turning negatively tilted as it does so. In other words the surface low will be slow to move in and slow to move out. The exact track of the low is somewhat uncertain Today...however the trend over the last day or two has been for a more southerly track which could result in the heaviest rainfall remaining west and south of our area with lighter rainfall this far north. Some lake effect or lake enhanced rain could even develop Friday and Saturday along the North and South Shore of Lake Superior with east-northeast winds and lowering 850 mb temperatures. Speaking of those east winds...they look to become rather gusty from Thursday through Saturday due to the pressure difference between low pressure off to our southwest-south and strong high pressure up to our north. Winds could be especially strong near Lake Superior with gusts possibly over 30 mph.

High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Thursday Night in the 30s and 40s. Temperatures are forecast to remain near to below average from Friday through Sunday.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*Wind Advisory* in effect until 7 PM CDT Tonight.

*Freeze Watch* in effect from late Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning.

.Tonight... Windy. North to northwest winds at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Areas of light rain showers during the Evening otherwise mostly cloudy with some clearing possible Overnight. Low 35 to 40.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 47 to 52. Wind north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Areas of frost possible late. Low 30 to 35 Inland and 35 to 40 close to Lake Superior. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 50 to 55.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.

.Thursday... Increasing clouds. Breezy. High 47 to 52. East winds could gust to 25 mph.

.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Rain possible. Low 38 to 43. Chance of rain 30%. East winds could gust to 30 mph.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Rain possible. High 47 to 52. Chance of rain 30%. East winds could gust to 30 mph.

Normal High Temperature Today 60 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 41 degrees

Tim

9/28/09: Marine Information Statement

Issued at 8:15 AM CDT, Monday, September 28th, 2009

Following marine headline information provided by the NWS Marquette and NWS Duluth.

*Storm Warning* in effect from 1 PM EDT Today until 10 PM EDT This Evening for the Open Waters of Central Lake Superior...or from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance To Portage Canal MI 5 NM Off Shore to the US/Canadian Border including Isle Royal National Park.

*Gale Warning* in effect for these same areas from 10 PM This Evening until Noon EDT Tuesday...

Expect sustained storm force winds or frequent storm force gusts from Noon EDT Today until 10 PM EDT Tonight.

During the storm warning plan on the strongest sustained winds of up to 42 knots from the north to occur around 4 PM EDT Today. Gusts up to 54 knots are also possible. Look for the largest waves of up to 24 feet to occur around 9 PM EDT Tonight.

During the gale warning plan on the strongest sustained winds of up to 38 knots from the north to occur around 10 PM EDT Tonight. Gusts up to 49 knots are also possible. Look for the largest waves of up to 24 feet to occur around 10 PM EDT Tonight.

Recreational boaters should remain in port or take shelter until winds and waves subside. Commerical vessels should prepare for very strong winds and dangerous sea conditions...and consider remaining in port or taking shelter until winds and waves subside.

*Gale Warning* is in effect for the Nearshore waters of Western Lake Superior until Midnight CDT Tonight... This warning is along a line from Bayfield to Oak Point WI...Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN...Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN...Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN...Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN...Two Harbors MN to Duluth MN...Duluth MN to Port Wing WI...Port Wing WI to Bayfield WI...Bayfield WI to Oak Point WI...Oak Point WI to Saxon Harbor WI...

Northwest winds to 30 knots with gale force gusts to 40 knots are expected across the nearshore waters of Western Lake Superior Today and This Evening. Very rough water will result as waves build to 8 to 12 feet in some areas.

Tim

9/28/09: Wind advisory/freeze watch information

Issued at 7:57 AM CDT, Monday, September 28th, 2009

Following headlines issued by the National Weather Service, Duluth, Minnesota:

*Wind Advisory* in effect until 7 PM CDT This Evening for the following Counties.

In Minnesota: Southern St. Louis...Carlton...Southern Lake...and Southern Cook.

In Wisconsin: Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...and Iron.

Some cities included in the advisory are:

In Minnesota: Moose Lake...Cloquet...Wrenshall...Duluth...Floodwood...Two Harbors...Silver Bay...Lutsen...Tofte...Grand Marais...and Grand Portage.

In Wisconsin: Superior...Solon Springs...Port Wing...Bayfield...Ashland...and Hurley...

A powerful area of low pressure centered over Central Lake Superior This Morning will move slowly to the east through Tonight. Strong northwest winds at 20 to 35 mph with frequent gusts over 40 mph will continue to occur Today and early Tonight across the advisory area. Winds will slowly subside later Tonight as the low pulls farther away.

A wind advisory means that winds of 25 to 35 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...Especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

*Freeze Watch* is in effect from late Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning for portions of Northcentral and Northeast Minnesota and for parts of Northwest Wisconsin. Counties included in the freeze watch are:

In Minnesota: Koochiching...Itasca...Northern Cass...Northern Aitkin...Carlton...St. Louis...Northern Lake...and Northern Cook.

In Wisconsin: Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...Iron...Washburn...Sawyer...and Price.

Some cities included in the freeze watch are:

International Falls MN...Littlefork MN...Northome MN...Bigfork MN...Grand Rapids MN...Cass Lake MN...Remer MN...Walker MN...Hill City MN...Moose Lake MN...Esko MN...Duluth MN...Floodwood MN...Cotton MN...Hibbing MN...Crane Lake MN...Ely MN...Whyte MN...Forest Center MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Cable WI...Ashland WI...Glidden WI...Butternut WI...Hurley WI...Upson WI...Mercer WI...Minong WI...Spooner WI...Shell Lake WI...Hayward WI...Winter WI...Exeland WI...Park Falls WI...Phillips WI...and Ogema WI...

Much cooler temperatures will continue to filter south into Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin through Tuesday behind a strong area of low pressure to our east. This chilly airmass coupled with decreasing winds and mostly clear skies by late Tuesday Night will result in sub-freezing temperatures across much of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin late Tuesday and Wednesday Morning.

A freeze watch means that sub-freezing temperatures are possible. These conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

Tim

Saturday, September 26, 2009

9/26/09: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 6:23 PM CDT, Saturday, September 26th, 2009

Marine Information:

*Gale Warning* in effect from Sunday Night through Tuesday Morning for the open waters of Lake Superior. During the event look for northwest winds up to 45 knots with waves ranging from 15 to 25 feet!

*Gale Watch* is in effect for within 5 nautical miles of shore along the North and South Shore of Lake Superior from Sunday Evening through Monday Evening. During the event look for northwest winds up to 35 knots with waves of 6-9 feet. The highest waves are expected east-northeast of the Duluth-Superior Harbor due to surface winds out of the northwest.

Weather tibits:

-Strong cold front to sweep through on Sunday

-Falling temperatures and increasing winds will be the bigger weather headlines as the front moves through

-Gale event still expected over Lake Superior Sunday Night through early Tuesday

-Another storm possible later next week with a potential for some heavier rainfall

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies were found across our area Today with another day with above normal high temperatures which were in the 60s or lower 70s. 850 mb temperatures as of 5 PM ranged from +9 to +13 degrees C. Dewpoints Today were in the 50s to around 60 degrees with PWS of 0.80"-1.00" as of early This Evening. Winds Today were out of the south or southwest at 10-20 mph. Surface map late This Afternoon featured low pressure of 996 mb centered over Western Manitoba Province with a cold front extending from Western Manitoba Province to Northwest North Dakota to Central Montana with a prefrontal trough centered over the Central Dakotas. Good 2 hour pressure falls (2 mb/2 hours) were occurring late Today across much of the Northern Plains out ahead of the low and cold frontal boundary.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Northwest flow aloft was in place early This Evening across the Upper Midwest with the main feature of interest for our local area currently digging south-east across the Southern Provinces of Saskatchewan and the Manitoba Lakes area in the form of an upper level low while a cold H5 trough was deepening across Western Canada Today with 500 mb temperatures down to -18 to -24 degrees C as of 6 PM. Powerful jet stream winds from 100-140 knots extended from Western Canada into the far Northern parts of Montana with widespread 90-120 meter 500 mb 12 hour height falls covering most of Western-Central Canada This Afternoon as this whole storm system begins to deepen. H5 ridging (588-594 meters) covered the Western U.S. or south of the Northern Rockies while a vigorous shortwave trough associated with 90 meter 500 mb 12 hour height falls pushes through the Ohio Valley and the Central-Eastern Great Lakes region.

(Tonight)

Warm advection will occur across our area Tonight out ahead of the vigorous cold front/H5 trough and area of low pressure which will remain to our west-northwest through the night. 850 mb temperatures will range from +10 to +14 degrees C Tonight as southerly winds at 10-20 mph continue out ahead of this storm. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies Tonight with lows generally in the 50s. A few showers or thunderstorms could develop Tonight across Northcentral Minnesota with CAPES around 250-500 j/kg with Lifted Indices around zero to -2 degrees C.

(Sunday and Sunday Night)

Low pressure currently sitting at 996 mb is forecast to deepen to between 984-987 mb by late Sunday Night as it tracks to the north of Lake Superior. A strong cold front attached to this low will sweep southeast through our area on Sunday which will then be followed by a vigorous upper level trough. Look for partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies on Sunday with mainly mostly cloudy skies expected for Sunday Night. Areas of rain showers are possible across the entire area during this period with isolated thunderstorms also possible on Sunday with CAPES up toward 500 j/kg along with Lifted Indices down around zero to -2 degrees C. Some locally high winds could develop in any storm that forms on Sunday especially across Northwest Wisconsin since the cold front won't be moving through those areas until early or mid Afternoon Tomorrow. Highs on Sunday will be in the 60s and 70s but will fall into the 50s from northwest to southeast during the Afternoon as cold advection builds in behind the cold front. Lows Sunday Night will be mainly in the 40s. Look for southwest winds to turn northwest at 15-30 mph during this period with gusts up to 40 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

Cold advection will linger into Monday as H85 temperatures decrease to +2 to -4 degrees C across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Strong low pressure around 984 mb will be centered to the north of Lake Superior on Monday before this low shifts into Eastern Canada by Tuesday. Strong northwest winds at 15-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph will persist on Monday across our area along with mostly cloudy skies and a risk for some rain showers as well. Lake enhanced rain is still expected to develop from late Sunday Night into Monday along the South Shore of Lake Superior... Highs Monday will only be in the 40s and 50s. By Monday Night look for partly-mostly cloudy skies with a potential for some frost over parts of the area. Lows Monday Night will be in the 30s and lower 40s but some 20s are possible in Northern Minnesota. Tuesday and Tuesday Night should bring with it dry conditions along with less wind as high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Highs Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Tuesday Night in the 20s and 30s. Another threat for frost or a hard freeze will occur for parts of our area Tuesday Night.

The period from Wednesday through Friday of next week will feature a rather large Western U.S. trough shifting slowly toward the Plains/Upper Midwest. Low pressure is forecast to develop across the Rockies with this low expected to lift toward the Upper Midwest sometime later next week. Still seeing some timing/track/intensity issues with the long range models in regards to this potential storm so some changes to the forecast could occur during the next few days. As it stands now it appears that the Thursday-Friday time frame will hold the best chance for rain across our area with a thunderstorm risk as well. The potential for heavy rain continues depending on how this system evolves later in the week...but the exact location of the heaviest rain band remains uncertain this far out in time.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Becoming windy. Mostly cloudy with showers at times. A thunderstorm also possible. High 65 to 70 with temperatures falling into the 50s later in the day. Wind southwest becoming northwest at 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

.Sunday Night... Windy. Mostly cloudy. Light rain and showers possible. Low 41 to 46. Wind northwest at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts possible. Chance of rain 40%.

.Monday... Windy. Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 50 to 55. Chance of rain 30%. Wind northwest at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts possible.

.Monday Night... Decreasing clouds. Areas of frost possible late. Low 35 to 40.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 50 to 55.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Frost and a hard freeze possible. Low 30 to 35.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 55 to 60.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 61 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 41 degrees

Tim

Friday, September 25, 2009

9/25/09: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:06 PM CDT, Friday, September 25th, 2009

Weather tidbits:

-Day number 26 with at or above normal high temperatures at the Duluth Airport

-Bit of rain Tonight/early Saturday

-Late weekend wind event with colder temperatures early next week

-Another big storm possible the middle and end of next week

Note: The Duluth Airport has recorded 18 days in September 2009 with high temperatures at or exceeding 70 degrees. The average number of 70 degree days during September is 8 dating back to 1874. The most number of days with a 70 degree or higher temperature was 19 set back in 1948. We could tie this record over the weekend.

Note: Average September temperature at the Duluth Airport through the 24th: 64.4 degrees
We are still on track to have the warmest September on record at the Duluth Airport. Previous record is 62.6 degrees which was set in 1897. Our average September temperature is 54.7 degrees!

Fall foliage report...Data provided by the Minnesota DNR and Travelwisconsin.com Updated as of September 25th, 2009.

In Minnesota:

-Duluth area 10-25% color including the Jay Cooke State Park area.

-Highway 61 along the North Shore of Lake Superior 25-50% color.

-Itasca...Western St. Louis...Northern half of Cass...Southern-Eastern Koochiching...Northern-Eastern Aitkin...Central-Southern-Western Carlton...Northcentral-Western Pine...All of Cook...and the Central-East parts of Lake county have 25-50% color.

In Wisconsin:

-Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...Iron...Burnett...Washburn...Sawyer...and Price counties have 26-50% color.

-Superior/Bayfield/and Ashland: 26-50% color.

-Hurley: 51-75% color. Mercer: 26-50% color.

-Grantsburg and Spooner: 26-50% color.

-Winter/Phillips/and Park Falls: 51-75% color.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

An area of rain has been spreading north-west through parts of Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Afternoon. As of 4 PM the leading edge of the rain stretched from Sandstone Minnesota to Hayward Wisconsin to Phillips Wisconsin. Overcast skies along with some patchy fog prevailed across southern parts of our area Today where high temperatures were generally in the 60s. More sunshine was found west-north of the Iron Range which resulted in warmer high temps in the 70s Today. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +9 to +13 degrees C. Dewpoints Today have increased to the 50s and lower 60s with H85 td's of +8 to +10 degrees C with PWS of 1.00"-1.20" south of a Cass Lake-Grand Rapids-Two Harbors line. Winds Today were out of the south or east at 10-20 mph. Surface map late Today features a cold front extending from Western Ontario Province to Southern Manitoba Province to Eastern Montana. Low pressure of 1012 mb was centered over the Western Ontario-Eastern Manitoba Province area with high pressure of 1020 mb centered over the Southeast Alberta-Southwest Saskatchewan Province area. Low pressure of 1018 mb was centered over Southeast South Dakota with a trough stretching from Northern Iowa to Central Illinois.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

H5 low (570 meters) has become more elongated Today compared to the last few days and extended from Central Kansas to Eastern Nebraska with movement toward the east-northeast. Seeing a pocket of 60 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls ahead of this upper low This Afternoon across Southcentral Minnesota-Northern Iowa per RUC model analysis. H5 ridging (588 meters) covered areas west of the Rockies Today.

(Tonight)

Upper level low will remain to our south Tonight but an area of rain located well north of this feature will continue to spread toward the north-west Tonight with most of our area seeing at least some light rain at times Tonight along with areas of fog. Some heavier downpours and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm is also possible across parts of Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota during the Evening hours. Look for mostly cloudy skies Tonight with clouds increasing toward the Hibbing/International Falls/Bigfork areas. Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with south or east winds under 15 mph.

(Saturday and Saturday Night)

Upper level low will head northeast into the Great Lakes region while a cold front remains to our west-northwest. Some moisture wrapping around the H5 low to our east will result in mostly cloudy-partly sunny skies over most of our area on Saturday with a better chance for seeing more sun found north of a line from Walker to Silver Bay. Some lingering drizzle or light rain is also possible especially Saturday Morning across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Highs Saturday will be in the 60s and 70s with winds from the southwest or north at 10-20 mph. Warm advection will spread east-southeast into our area Saturday Night out ahead of a cold front which will be off to our west-northwest. A few showers or thunderstorms could develop over parts of Northern Minnesota Tomorrow Night otherwise look for partly-mostly cloudy skies with lows generally in the 50s. Look for southwest winds under 20 mph Tomorrow Night.

(Extended Forecast)

Low pressure will deepen from 995 mb to around 984 mb during the Sunday-Monday time period as it passes north-east of our local area. A strong cold front attached to this low will sweep southeast through our area on Sunday while a potent upper level trough develops across the Upper Midwest on Sunday and Monday. Some showers are possible at times Sunday and Monday across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with a chance for some lake enhanced rainfall Sunday Night and Monday along the South Shore of Lake Superior. Potential also exists for isolated thunderstorms on Sunday...mainly over Northwest Wisconsin. Warm advection will continue Sunday Morning across our area with H85 temps of +10 to +14 degrees C... Cold advection will sweep southeast into our area behind this system with 850 mb temperatures dropping to +2 to -2 degrees C by Monday. Strong northwest to north winds will also develop as this system deepens Sunday Afternoon into Monday. 850 mb wind speeds of 30-50 knots are expected to develop with the potential for widespread 20-30 mph winds at the surface along with higher gusts nearing 40 mph! Highs Sunday will be in the 60s and 70s with falling temperatures into the 50s during the Afternoon hours across Northcentral Minnesota. Lows Sunday Night will be mainly in the 40s. Highs Monday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Monday Night in the 30s to lower 40s with some 20s possible in Northern Minnesota.

Frost/freeze potential continues for Monday Night and possibly again Tuesday Night for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Another strong upper level trough will work east out of the Western U.S. during the middle and end of next week with the potential for a deepening area of low pressure working north-east out of the Western High Plains during this period. Southerly flow with an increase in warm and moist advection will spread into our area during the Wednesday Night-Friday time period and this should result in the development of some rain over Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Some of this rain could become heavy at times depending on how this whole system evolves later next week. A risk for thunderstorms also exists especially Thursday-early Friday the way it looks now.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy with periods of light rain developing between 6 PM-8 PM. Areas of fog possible. Low 50 to 55. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph becoming southeast to south Overnight.

.Saturday... Areas of fog early along with some lingering light rain or drizzle. Mostly cloudy with some Afternoon sunshine possible. High 66 to 71. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy during the Evening with increasing clouds late. Low 50 to 55. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Turning windy. Partly sunny. A few showers possible. High 67 to 72 with falling Afternoon temperatures. Wind becoming northwest and increasing to 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Sunday Night... Windy. Light rain and showers under mostly cloudy skies. Low 41 to 46. Chance of rain 30%. Northwest to north winds could gust over 30 mph.

.Monday... Windy. Light rain and showers under mostly cloudy skies. High 50 to 55. Chance of rain 30%. Northwest to north winds could gust over 30 mph.

.Monday Night... Decreasing clouds. Areas of frost possible late. Low 35 to 40.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 50 to 55.

Normal High Temperature Today 61 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 42 degrees

Tim

Thursday, September 24, 2009

9/24/09: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:58 PM CDT, Thursday, September 24th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 2000... A record low temperature of 26 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Weather tidbits:

-Today may have been the last 70 plus degree day until next Spring here in Duluth

-Windy storm to affect our weather later this weekend and early next week

-Gale and possible storm force conditions to impact Lake Superior late Sunday-Monday

-Active weather pattern possible the middle and end of next week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Another day filled with sunshine and much above normal temperatures. Highs Today were mainly in the 70s with 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranging from +12 to +13 degrees C. Amazing late season warmth was occurring This Afternoon across the Northern Rockies into parts of Alberta/Saskatchewan Province Canada where surface temps were in the 80s and 90s while H85 temperatures ranged from +20 to +26 degrees C! Dewpoints across our area were in the 40s and 50s This Afternoon with PWS of 0.70"-0.90". Surface map late Today features an area of low pressure of 1020 mb centered over Southwest Nebraska with high pressure of 1020 mb centered to our east while a stronger high of 1028 mb builds south into Northern Ontario Province behind a cold front which was located in Southern Ontario Province. Another cold front extended from Central Saskatchewan Province to Westcentral Montana with low pressure of 1010 mb centered over Central Saskatchewan Province.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

H5 low (570 meters) continued to sit over the Southwest Nebraska-Western Kansas area for the third day in a row. A plume of deeper moisture with PWS of 1.50"-2.20" was streaming northeast out ahead of this upper low from the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley This Afternoon. Northwest flow aloft prevailed to our north-northeast Today with 100-120 knot jet stream winds extending from Northern Ontario Province to Central Quebec Province along with zero to -4 degree C 850 mb temperatures. Upper level ridge (588 meters) prevailed from California to Montana Today but this ridge was beginning to break down as energy rolls east into Western Canada.

(Tonight)

A cold front will sink south into our area during the night while strong high pressure stays off to our northeast. Look for clear-partly cloudy skies Tonight with some late night fog possible. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s with winds turning to the east at 5-15 mph.

(Friday and Friday Night)

High pressure shifts into Eastern Canada during this period while the upper level low across the Plains which has been cut-off from the main jet stream winds the last few days starts to lift northeast toward the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies on Friday and Friday Night with some light rain and rain showers developing and spreading from south to north. Highs Friday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Friday Night in the generally in the 50s. Look for easterly winds at 5-15 mph during this period.

(Extended Forecast)

Upper level area of low pressure will be shifting east of our area Saturday and Saturday Night with some lingering showers possible across parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Saturday to the west-north of this feature.

The next weather maker for our area will come in the form of an area of low pressure...a strong cold front...and upper level trough. Fairly good push of warm advection (850 mb temps rising to +10 to +14 degrees C) will surge north-east out ahead of this system from late Saturday Night into Sunday Morning...Then as the cold front moves through and the low passes by to our north look for strong cold advection to develop as H85 temperatures drop toward +2 degrees C by Sunday Evening. Some showers will occur at times across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from late Saturday Night through Monday as this system moves through. Some lake enhanced rainfall is also expected to develop Sunday Night-Monday along the South Shore of Lake Superior.

Still looks like will see some gusty north and northwest winds develop as well later this weekend and early next week as low pressure deepens to around 984 mb while H85 winds increase to 35-55 knots...Some of this will mix down to the surface and could result in widespread 20-35 mph wind speeds with higher gusts during the late Sunday-Monday time frame. A gale event is still expected over Lake Superior with possible storm force gusts from late Sunday into Monday...Highest waves will occur east of the Duluth-Superior Harbor as surface winds remain out of the north or northwest. Winds should come down a bit by Monday Night as this strong area of low pressure pulls into Eastern Canada while high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Depending on wind speeds and how much clearing can take place Monday Night across our area will determine whether or not we have a frost/freeze potential.

A crisp airmass will remain over our area Tuesday and Tuesday Night with another frost and or freeze potential come Tuesday Night.

As we move from the middle to end of next week will be watching the next upper level trough and associated surface low approach the Plains from the Western U.S. Southerly winds along with warm and moist advection will occur out ahead of this system and this should result in the development of some rainfall and possible thunderstorms toward the Thursday-Friday time period the way it looks now. Some of the recent GFS model runs have shown a fairly significant surface low developing and tracking from the Western High Plains toward Minnesota later next week...if that happens then we could see some heavier rainfall around our area and possibly even a low end severe weather risk depending on the exact track and timing of the surface low and it's warm front and cold front along with how much moisture/warmth/and instability can develop this far north.

High temperatures Sunday will be in the 50s and 60s with some 70s possible in Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 40s with highs Monday in the 40s and 50s with lows Monday Night in the 30s but some 20s are possible in Northern Minnesota.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 48 to 53. Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph becoming east at 10 to 20 mph after 8 PM.

.Friday... Increasing cloudiness. Afternoon showers possible. High 65 to 70. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday Night... Light rain or rain showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 65 to 70. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 50 to 55. Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday... Mostly cloudy. Turning breezy. Showers possible. High 63 to 68. Chance of rain 30%. Winds becoming northwest with gusts to 25 mph.

.Sunday Night... Windy. Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 41 to 46. Chance of rain 30%. Northwest to north winds could gust over 30 mph.

.Monday... Windy. Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 50 to 55. Chance of rain 30%. Northwest to north winds could gust over 30 mph.

Normal High Temperature Today 62 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 42 degrees

Tim

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

9/23/09: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:11 PM CDT, Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009

Weather tidbits:

More active weather pattern could unfold this weekend into next week...

Intense Autumn storm could bring gale and or storm force winds over Lake Superior later this weekend and early next week with high winds also possible for inland locations...

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Gorgeous first full day of Autumn with plenty of Afternoon sunshine along with more above normal temperatures. Highs Today were generally in the upper 60s to the lower-middle 70s with 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranging from +9 to +11 degrees C. Drier air has pushed south into our area Today behind Tuesday's cold frontal passage. Dewpoints This Afternoon were in the 40s and 50s with PWS of 0.60"-0.80". Winds Today were variable in direction under 15 mph. Surface map late Today features an area of low pressure of 1020 mb over Westcentral Kansas with high pressure of 1022-1024 mb stretching from the Upper Midwest to the Northern Plains to the Northern Rockies. A stationary front extended from Central Manitoba Province to Central Ontario Province with low pressure of 1018 mb centered along the Manitoba-Ontario Province line.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

H5 low (570 meters) was over Western Kansas and remained nearly stationary for the second day in a row. 100 knot jet stream winds were found on the northwest-west side of the upper low with 100-110 knot jet stream winds found on the south-east side of the upper low. Upper level ridge (594 meters) covered the Northern Rockies-Pacific Northwest-and Western Canada. In between those two features was a northwest flow aloft which covered areas north-northeast of the Upper Midwest Today with 110 knot jet stream winds extending from Central Ontario Province to Central Quebec Province. Another shot of cooler air with zero to -2 degree C H85 temperatures were found in Northern Ontario Province-Hudson Bay Canada or to the north of the axis of stronger winds aloft and to the west of an upper level low which was tracking through Quebec Province Today.

(Tonight through Thursday Night)

Generally quiet conditions are expected across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin during this period with pleasant early Autumn weather continuing as high pressure remains in control while an upper level low remains over the Plains. Look for clear-partly cloudy skies through Thursday Night with some areas of fog which could be dense in spots later Tonight into Thursday Morning. Lows Tonight and Thursday Night will be in the 40s and 50s but some isolated 30s are possible in the traditional cold spots in far Northern Minnesota...similar to what happened earlier Today. Highs Thursday will top out generally in the 70s. Look for southwest, north, or east winds under 15 mph during this period.

(Extended Forecast)

The upper level low currently over the Central Plains is forecast to lift northeast toward the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes from Friday through the weekend. This feature along with colder air aloft (-12 degree C H5 temperatures) could result in some areas of showers across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Friday into Saturday.

The next system of interest for our area was currently over the Northeast Pacific with an area of 60 meter 500 mb 12 hour height falls as a vigorous area of low pressure tracks northeast toward British Columbia. This system with it's surface low and cold front are expected to track east into the Upper Midwest later this weekend. As this low passes to our north-east it will intensify with pressures falling to between 982-987 mb by Sunday Night-Monday. A few model runs per various forecast models over the last few days show an even stronger surface low...possibly down to around 978-979 mb! Accompaning the surface low/cold front will be a vigorous upper level trough which is forecast to spread into the Upper Midwest from Sunday into Monday. Powerful jet stream winds over 130 knots are forecast to occur from the Northern Rockies through the Northern Plains toward Iowa and Southern Minnesota or on the west-south side of this storm system.

Some rain and rain showers are likely across our area Sunday and Monday as this storm moves through. Another aspect of this deepening storm could be the potential for high winds to develop during the Sunday Night and Monday time frame. North to northwest 850 mb winds are forecast to strengthen to 40-60 knots during that above mentioned time period and that combined with strong cold air advection with H85 temps dropping to +2 to -2 degree C could result in the development of some rather strong winds across our area later this weekend and early next week. As the colder air moves over Lake Superior it may result in some lake enhanced rainfall along the South Shore of Lake Superior from Sunday Night into Monday with favorable north to northwesterly winds at the surface and aloft.

Temperatures are expected to remain warm enough and heights remain high enough where all the precipitation falls as rain instead of snow...Any snow with this developing storm should remain north of our local area the way it looks now.

A gale event is anticipated across Lake Superior with the possibility for storm force conditions at the peak of this event sometime late Sunday Night or on Monday. With the low passing north-northeast of the immediate Duluth-Superior area...surface winds will remain out of the northwest or north which will result in the highest waves staying east of the Duluth-Superior Harbor area.

A frost/freeze threat could occur across portions of our area Monday Night-Tuesday Morning and possibly again Tuesday Night as a cool airmass remains over our area early next week.

Another storm system could take aim at our area sometime later next week...but this one based on the latest track could pull milder air north into our area and if enough moisture can surge north we could be looking at a potential for some convection around here sometime later next week depending on how everything unfolds at that time.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Clear. Areas of fog developing late. Fog could be dense. Low 46 to 51 but a little warmer in Downtown Duluth. Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Thursday... Areas of fog early. Mostly sunny. High 72 to 77. Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind becoming east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday... Increasing cloudiness. Afternoon showers possible. High 65 to 70. Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 50 to 55. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 65 to 70. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 50 to 55. Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday... Mostly cloudy. Turning breezy. Showers possible. High 63 to 68. Chance of rain 30%. Winds becoming northwest with gusts to 25 mph.

Normal High Temperature Today 62 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 42 degrees

Tim

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

9/22/09: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:35 PM CDT, Tuesday, September 22nd, 2009

Weather tidbits:

Day number 23 with at or above normal high temperatures at Duluth...

First intense Autumnal Great Lakes storm possible later this weekend/early next week?

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Most of our area saw some rain showers at times from last night through This Morning but rainfall amounts in most spots were under one quarter inch with a few isolated pockets of around one quarter inch to four tenths of an inch of rain. Cold front responsible for the shower activity extended from Northern to Central to Southwest Minnesota as of midday with a nice clearing line working southeast behind the boundary This Afternoon across Northwest Minnesota per 1km visible satellite imagery. Mostly cloudy skies continued across our local area This Afternoon with a few pockets of sunshine here and there. Some additional showers have developed This Afternoon across portions of Northcentral-Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with a weakly unstable atmosphere in place This Afternoon in Northeast Minnesota with CAPES under 500 j/kg with LI'S around zero degrees C. High temperatures Today were holding in the 60s and lower 70s thanks to the extensive cloud-cover across the area...but these temps are still at or above normal levels for this first day of Autumn 2009. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM were right around +10 degrees C with H85 td's up to +10 degrees C. Afternoon dewpoints were in the 50s and lower 60s across our area with PWS of 1.20"-1.40". Winds Today were variable in direction at 5-15 mph. Surface map This Afternoon features a 1014 mb low across Southern Wisconsin with high pressure of 1028 mb centered over Southwest Montana.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

500 mb low (570 meters) was centered over Western Kansas This Afternoon per RUC model analysis/water vapor satellite imagery. 100 knot jet stream winds were located from Northcentral Oklahoma to Central Kansas east of this H5 low with 100-110 knot jet stream winds on the backside of the H5 low from Western Colorado to Southern-Eastern Wyoming. Another core of 100-110 knot H3 winds were found across Central Canada Today while an upper level ridge (594 meters) covered the Pacific Northwest and Western Canada. A southwest flow aloft was in place over the Upper Midwest Today with the stronger jet stream winds residing to our north and to our southwest-south.

(Tonight)

Scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm will come to an end across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin before Midnight as a weakening cold front continues to settle slowly southeast through our area. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies Tonight with areas of fog developing which could be dense in some spots. Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with variable winds under 12 mph.

(Wednesday and Wednesday Night)

A weak cold front will push south out of our area during this period with an upper level low remaining over the Plains. Areas of Morning fog will occur on Wednesday otherwise look for partly-mostly sunny skies on Wednesday with clear-partly cloudy skies Wednesday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 40s and 50s. Winds during this period will be out of the north, east, or southwest at 5-15 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

Dry weather will likely continue for Thursday and Thursday Night across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with highs in the 60s and 70s on Thursday with lows Thursday Night mainly in the 50s. The period from Friday through early next week will become a bit more interesting as a couple of different weather systems affect our weather to some extent. The first system will be the H5 low currently over the Plains...this system is forecast to lift northeast toward the Great Lakes later this week and this weekend...The next system will be a cold front which is forecast to push southeast across our area later this weekend while low pressure attached to this boundary passes by to our north-east from Sunday into early next week. This area of low pressure is expected to deepen to between 984-992 mb by early next week as it crosses Lake Superior or slightly north or south of there. The potential does exist for some periodic rain showers across our local area from Friday into early next week due to these different systems affecting our weather. It also appears that colder air will get drawn south into our area by early next week as gusty north or northwest winds develop behind the deepening low to our east. Right now it does not appear that enough cold air will make it this far south to cause any rain to mix with or turn to snow...that should remain to our north...but it will be something to keep an eye on in the coming days.

Note: It does look like our consecutive streak of at or above normal high temps here at Duluth will come to an end sometime later this weekend or by early next week the way it looks right now.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy with some clearing Overnight. Areas of fog which could become dense. Showers possible This Evening. Low 48 to 53. Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Wednesday... Areas of fog early. Partly cloudy. High 68 to 73. Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 48 to 53. Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 67 to 72. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 50 to 55. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 65 to 70. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 62 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 43 degrees

Tim

Monday, September 21, 2009

9/21/09: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:52 PM CDT, Monday, September 21st, 2009

Weather tidbits:

Over 3 weeks and counting with our above normal high temperature streak at Duluth...Were up to 22 straight days with at or above normal high temperatures in Duluth. Looks like will make a run for 4 straight weeks with at or above normal high temps.

As of September 20th, 2009...The average monthly temperature at Duluth is 64.8 degrees. September 2009 could go down as the warmest September on record at Duluth. The warmest September on record at Duluth was set way back in 1897 with an average temperature of 62.6 degrees.

All of the top 10 warmest Septembers on record at Duluth were set before 1950. Stats provided by the NWS, Duluth, Minnesota.

1st: 62.6 degrees (1897)
2nd: 61.5 degrees (1931)
3rd: 61.5 degrees (1891)
4th: 61.0 degrees (1906)
5th: 60.4 degrees (1908)
6th: 60.3 degrees (1920)
7th: 60.2 degrees (1948)
8th: 60.1 degrees (1933)
9th: 60.0 degrees (1940)
10th: 59.8 degrees (1894)

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Some showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm have been affecting western portions of our area Today with most of the rain staying affecting the counties of Itasca...Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...and Western-Southern parts of Koochiching. Rainfall amounts have generally been under one quarter inch Today. Mostly cloudy skies prevailed from Northcentral to Eastcentral Minnesota while partly-mostly sunny skies covered Northeast Minnesota and most of Northwest Wisconsin. Highs Today were in the 60s and 70s with 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranging from +9 to +13 degrees C. Dewpoints This Afternoon were in the 50s and 60s with H85 td's around +10 degrees C with PWS ranging from 0.80"-0.90" across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin to 1.00"-1.20" across Northcentral-Eastcentral Minnesota. Winds Today were out of the south or east under 20 mph. Surface map late Today shows a cold front extending from Western Ontario Province to Westcentral Minnesota with low pressure of 1010 mb centered over Southwestern Minnesota and a 1006 mb low across Northern Ontario Province.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

H5 heights have lowered compared to recent days across the Northern and Central Plains/Upper Midwest as an upper level trough (570 meters) digs south through the Northern Plains Today. Strong jet stream winds of 100-120 knots were noted This Afternoon on the backside of this H5 trough across the Northern-Central Rockies. 60 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls are preceeding this system across Northcentral Colorado and Central Nebraska...meanwhile heights are rising west-north of this upper trough Today with H5 ridging (594 meters) becoming established west of the Rockies.

(Tonight through Tuesday Night)

Cold front currently to our west-northwest will settle slowly south-east into our area during this period. Areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop at times across parts of our area through this period as this boundary nears. Western and southern parts of our local area will have the greatest chances for seeing some rain Tonight and Tuesday with lesser chances the farther northeast-east you are. Dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s along with H85 td's of +8 to +12 degrees C and PWS from 1"-1.30" could lead to some brief heavy downpours especially if some convective elements can develop and that will be a possibility with weak instability in place with CAPES under 500 j/kg and LI'S near zero degrees C. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies during this period with lows Tonight in the 50s to around 60 degrees. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 40s and 50s. Look for south, east, or north winds under 20 mph through this period.

(Extended Forecast)

An upper level low will be centered across the Plains most of this week before lifting northeast toward the Great Lakes this weekend. What's left of Tonight's cold front will more or less wash out by midweek as it remains over the Upper Midwest...A new cold front will then push south-east into our area sometime later this week or this weekend. Wednesday and Thursday look mainly dry at this time in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with just an outside risk for a few showers across southern parts of our area on Wednesday. High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s Wednesday and Thursday with lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night generally in the 50s but some 40s could occur in the traditional chilly spots up north. Looks like we could see growing chances for wet weather around parts of our area later this week and this weekend depending on the exact track of the upper low pulling northeast from the Plains along with the boundary moving in from the west.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy. Late night showers possible. Low 53 to 58. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Tuesday... Occasional showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 65 to 70. Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Tuesday Night... Becoming partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 68 to 73.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 67 to 72. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 63 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 43 degrees

Tim

Saturday, September 19, 2009

9/19/09: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:08 PM CDT, Saturday, September 19th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 1984... A record high temperature of 90 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

On September 18th, 1991... 2.4" of snow fell at Duluth, MN.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Unseasonably warm temperatures blanketed our area Today with widespread 70s and 80s for daytime highs...temperatures close to Lake Superior held in the 60s and lower 70s Today. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +14 to +15 degrees C. Mostly sunny skies covered our area Today with Afternoon dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s with H85 td's from +8 to +10 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the south, southwest, or east under 20 mph. Surface map late Today featured high pressure of 1026 mb extending from Southeast Ontario Province west to Southern Lake Michigan.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

H5 low was centered over the Eastern Kansas-Western Missouri area This Afternoon per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery. Plenty of mid/high level moisture was pushing slowly north into the Upper Midwest Today ahead of this upper low. Upper level trough was pushing out of the Northeast U.S. late Today while a strong H5 trough was pushing east through Western Canada and the Pacific Northwest with 60-90 meter 500 mb 12 hour height falls associated with this western trough. A 100 knot H3 jet was also in place on the west side of this H5 trough Today.

(Tonight)

Upper level ridging will remain over our area Tonight with high pressure off to our south-east. Look for clear-partly cloudy skies with the possibility for some patchy late night fog. Lows Tonight will be mainly in the 50s to around 60 degrees but some 40s are possible in the traditional cold spots. Winds Tonight will be out of the south or east under 15 mph.

(Sunday and Sunday Night)

Another mild day is in store on Sunday with high temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s. Look for partly cloudy-mostly sunny skies with south, southwest, or southeast winds at 10-20 mph. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecast Sunday Night as we start to see the trough and cold front currently over the Pacific Northwest head east into the Northern Plains. Any showers developing ahead of this system should remain to our west-southwest for Sunday Night. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s to lower 60s with south or east winds under 15 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

A cold front will pass through our area Monday and Tuesday while an upper level low starts to take shape over Nebraska on Monday...This upper low is then forecast to drop south into the Plains while becoming unattached from the stronger jet stream winds which are forecast to reside off to our north from mid to late week. Still seeing model differences Today in regards to how far north this upper level system will set up although the consenus amongst the models Today would be for this system to remain too far south of our local area to provide any additional rain chances after Tuesday. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will mainly in the 60s with some 70s possible as well. Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be generally in the 50s. Shower chances will be greatest across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Monday and Tuesday the way it looks now...although the best chances for showers may end up being in western-southern parts of our area early next week. Could even see a few thunderstorms develop Monday Afternoon and Monday Night as CAPES approach 500 j/kg while LI'S fall to around zero degrees C later in the day.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 51 to 56. Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 73 to 78. Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night... Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 53 to 58. Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday Night... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 65 to 70. Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday Night... Becoming partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 68 to 73.

Normal High Temperature Today 63 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 44 degrees

Tim

Friday, September 18, 2009

9/18/09: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:31 PM CDT, Friday, September 18th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 2000... A record high temperature of 84 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Weather tidbits:

2009 Tornado data for Minnesota. Information provided by the Minnesota Climatology Working Group.

Total number of tornadoes through the 18th of September: 24. Yearly average is 26.

16 of the 24 tornadoes were rated an EF-0 with winds less than 86 mph.

6 of the 24 tornadoes were rated an EF-1 with winds of 86-110 mph.

2 of the 24 tornadoes were rated an EF-2 with winds of 111-135 mph.

Southern...Eastern...and Westcentral Minnesota have been the recepients of the tornadoes that have struck Minnesota this year.

How cold was the Summer of 2009?

Statistics from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) NESDIS/and NOAA.

The Summer of 2009 (June through August) will go down as the 7th coldest Summer on record for the state of Minnesota.

25 states in the U.S. reported below normal or much below normal temperatures this Summer (June-August) with 14 out of those 25 states having ranked in the top 20 coldest Summers on record.

Only the states of Florida...Texas...and Washington reported much above normal temperatures during the Summer of 2009.

Fall foliage report for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as of Friday, September 18th, 2009:

Information provided by the Minnesota DNR and travelwisconsin.com

In Minnesota:

-Duluth area: 0-10% color including the Jay Cooke State Park area.

-Portions of Southwest St. Louis...Northwest Carlton...Northern-Central-and Eastern Aitkin...and far Southeast Itasca counties have 25-50% color.

-Eastern half of Cook county 25-50% color.

-Highway 61 along the North Shore of Lake Superior 10-25% color.

-Far Western Itasca and Western Cass county 25-50% color.

In Wisconsin:

-Ashland county: 26-50% color.

-Iron county: Hurley: 51-75% color. Mercer: 0-25% color.

-Burnett county: 26-50% color.

-Washburn county: Spooner: 26-50% color.

-Sawyer county: Winter: 51-75% color. Hayward: 0-25% color.

-Note: Above average high temperature streak is now up to 19 and continuing to climb here at Duluth, Minnesota. Should have no problem reaching the three week mark (21 days) this weekend.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

High temps Today are running 10 to around 20 degrees cooler than Thursday for areas near Lake Superior...but still was a day with at or above normal temperatures with highs generally in the 60s. Away from Lake Superior the late Summer warmth continues with highs generally in the 70s Today. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +9 to +13 degrees C across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Partly to mostly sunny skies covered our area Today with Afternoon dewpoints in the 50s to around 60 degrees with 40s in Northeast Minnesota. PWS have lowered to 0.40"-0.90" Today across our area. Winds Today were out of the east at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts near Lake Superior. Surface map late This Afternoon featured a 1026 mb high across Central Ontario Province with a cold front extending from Western Minnesota to the Wisconsin-Illinois state line.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Core of the strongest jet stream winds were confined to Eastern Canada and the Northeast U.S. with 100 knot H3 winds in those areas Today per RUC model analysis. This area is also being affected by a strong upper level trough (546-558 meters) and a chilly airmass Today with H85 temps of zero to -2 degrees C in Eastern Canada. 12 hour 500 mb height falls of 60-150 meters were occurring near this H5 trough out East Today. Weak winds aloft continued to plauge the rest of the U.S. Today which has been a common theme most of this month and a far cry from what was happening most of the Summer. An upper level low was centered over Eastern Colorado-Western Kansas This Afternoon with an upper level trough covering the Northeast Pacific.

(Tonight)

Strong high pressure will be centered to our northeast with a cold front currently to our west-south turning stationary Tonight. Look for clear-partly cloudy skies with areas of fog developing late. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s but some isolated 30s can't be ruled out in far Northeast Minnesota. Winds Tonight will be out of the east under 15 mph.

(Saturday and Saturday Night)

High pressure slides into Eastern Canada during this period while a warm front lifts east-northeast through our area. Look for mostly sunny-partly cloudy skies on Saturday with areas of low clouds/fog during the Morning hours. Highs Saturday will be in the 70s to lower 80s with cooler temps along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Clear-partly cloudy skies are on tap Saturday Night with patchy late night fog possible. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s and 50s. Look for south, southwest, or east winds under 20 mph during this period.

(Extended Forecast)

Dry conditions should hold into Sunday with high temps reaching the 70s once again along with partly-mostly sunny skies. The period from Sunday Night through Tuesday could hold some shower chances as a cold front attempts to move east into the Upper Midwest while strong energy diving south into the Northern-Central Plains helps develop a rather large upper level low pressure system which is forecast to sit and spin across the Central-Southern Plains as stronger jet stream winds shift back north into Canada from mid to late week. Any additional rain chances for our local area will depend on how far north this H5 low sets up from mid to late week...right now it appears that this system will be too far south of our area to give us any additional shower chances after Tuesday. High temps on Monday will be mainly in the 60s with lows Sunday Night and Monday Night mainly in the 50s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear with passing lake clouds. Patchy fog possible late. Low 49 to 54. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday... Morning lake clouds along with patchy fog. Mostly sunny. High 71 to 76 but cooler closer to Lake Superior. Wind southeast to south at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 51 to 56. Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 72 to 77.

.Sunday Night... Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 53 to 58.

.Monday... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 63 to 68. Chance of rain 40%.

.Monday Night... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 63 to 68. Chance of rain 30%.

Normal High Temperature Today 64 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 44 degrees

Tim

Thursday, September 17, 2009

9/17/09: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:48 PM CDT, Thursday, September 17th, 2009

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

A cold front was dropping south into Northern Lake Superior and Northern Minnesota This Afternoon. Partly-mostly sunny skies were in place out ahead of this boundary Today with very mild late Summer temperatures in the 70s and lower 80s. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +11 to +14 degrees C across our area. Afternoon dewpoints were in the 50s and lower 60s with H85 td's from +10 to +12 degrees C with PWS of 1.00"-1.20" in Northwest Wisconsin into Eastcentral Minnesota with .80"-.90" PWS across Northern-Northeast Minnesota. Winds Today were out of the southwest or northwest at 10-20 mph. Surface map This Afternoon features a high pressure ridge of 1022 mb extending from Southern Nebraska to Southern Lake Michigan with high pressure of 1024 mb centered over Northwest Ontario Province. A cold front extended from Eastern Ontario Province to Northern Lake Superior to Northern Minnesota.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Pattern remains very amplified This Afternoon with upper level lows covering the Arklatex region (582 meters) as well as the area from New Hampshire and Vermont down into Massachusetts (570 meters). H5 ridging (588 meters) was in place over the Northern Plains while a strong H5 low/upper trough (558 meters) drops south-east out of Hudson Bay Canada. Another surge of colder air with +2 to +4 degree C H85 temps were found near this upper low across Northern Canada Today along with strong jet stream winds of 100-110 knots across Northern Ontario Province. This next cold air surge just like the last one will pass east of our immediate area on Friday. 60-90 meter 500 mb 12 hour height falls were found across Eastern Canada out ahead of the upper trough well to our north Today with an area of 60 meter 500 mb 12 hour height falls located across Eastern British Columbia-Western Alberta Province in Western Canada out ahead of an H5 trough which was in place across the Pacific Northwest Today.

(Tonight)

Cold front will drop south through all of our area Tonight. Look for partly cloudy skies with the possibility for an Evening shower or isolated thunderstorm across Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with a slightly unstable airmass currently in place ahead of this southward moving boundary. Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s. Look for winds to become north and east at 5-15 mph with higher gusts developing Overnight near Lake Superior. Areas of low clouds may start to develop later Tonight around Lake Superior as onshore winds develop. Patchy fog is also possible Overnight across the entire area.

(Friday and Friday Night)

Strong high pressure will be centered to our north-northeast during this period with Tonight's cold front stalling out to our west-southwest. Look for partly cloudy-mostly sunny skies on Friday with lows Friday Night in the 40s and 50s. Areas of low clouds could linger at times near Lake Superior during this period thanks to onshore winds and lingering moisture in place. Highs Friday will be cooler compared to Today but will remain at or above normal for mid September. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 40s and 50s. Winds during this period will be out of the north, east, or southeast at 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

High pressure will head into Eastern Canada this weekend with southerly winds developing as this high shifts off to the east. Look for dry conditions Saturday into Sunday with high temperatures generally in the 70s both days with lows mainly in the 50s. A cold front will move into the Upper Midwest by early next week while some additional energy could sneak north into the Great Lakes region by way of the Southern Plains. This complicated setup could lead to some showers across our area early next week. Long range models Today are now indicating the development of another cut off low somewhere from the Central or Southern Plains west to the Rockies around the middle of next week while an upper ridge develops either over the Pacific Ocean or across the Western U.S. Extended forecast models are in poor agreement Today with regards to how everything will evolve after early next week. A wide array of solutions ranging from cooler but really more normal level temps or a brief cool surge followed by another late season warm-up or more frequent shots of chillier temperatures are possible the middle and end of next week depending on how everything sets up at that time.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly cloudy. Areas of low clouds possible Overnight. Low 50 to 55. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph becoming east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph Overnight.

.Friday... Breezy. Areas of low clouds possible...Otherwise partly to mostly sunny. High 63 to 68. Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 48 to 53. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday... Mostly sunny. High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 50 to 55.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75.

.Sunday Night... Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Monday... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 63 to 68. Chance of rain 30%.

Normal High Temperature Today 64 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 44 degrees

Tim

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

9/16/09: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:14 PM CDT, Wednesday, September 16th, 2009

Weather tidbits:

Average September monthly temperature at the Duluth Airport thru the 15th: 65.4 degrees. Were running 8.1 degrees above normal.

Only one day this month has had a low temperature below 50 degrees...this occurred on the 1st when the Morning low was 49 degrees at the Duluth Airport.

We have received 1.08" of rain so far this month which is 1.13" below normal.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Low clouds which covered portions of our area This Morning burned off giving way to partly cloudy-sunny skies during the Afternoon hours. High temperatures Today were in the 60s and 70s with 850 mb temperatures as of 2 PM ranging from +11 to +13 degrees C. Dewpoints This Afternoon were in the 40s and 50s with a few locales in western areas up to 60 degrees. PWS This Afternoon ranged from 0.60"-0.90" across Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast-Eastern Minnesota to 1.00"-1.10" across Northcentral Minnesota. Surface map as mid-Afternoon featured an area of high pressure of 1028 mb centered over Eastern Ontario Province with a cold front extending from Western Ontario Province to Central North Dakota with high pressure of 1022 mb centered over Southern Saskatchewan Province.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Northwest H5 flow was in place across the Upper Midwest Today with one upper level low sitting over the Arklatex region for the second day in a row while another upper level low continues to sit and spin over the Four Corners region of the U.S. An upper level trough associated with a taste of autumnal air (zero to +4 degree C H85 temps) covered the Northeast U.S. into Eastern Canada. A rather strong upper level trough with 60 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls covered the Pacific Northwest and the Northeast Pacific while another rather potent upper trough with 60 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls passing north of Minnesota This Afternoon.

(Tonight)

A cold front to our west This Afternoon will weaken as it moves south-east into Northcentral Minnesota. An area of elevated instability with up to 500 j/kg of MUCAPE and LI'S down to zero degrees C and Lapse Rates up to 7.0 c/km could result in the development of isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two across Northcentral-Northeast Minnesota later Tonight. Otherwise look for clear-partly cloudy skies for most areas with lows in the 40s and 50s. Winds will be out of the east or south-southwest under 15 mph.

(Thursday and Thursday Night)

Cold front number one will wash out as it pushes south-east across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Thursday...Meanwhile a secondary cold front will drop south out of Central Canada into Northern Minnesota-Northwest Wisconsin by later Thursday Night. Look for partly cloudy-mostly sunny skies across our area on Thursday with clear-partly cloudy skies Thursday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be mainly in the 70s to lower 80s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 40s and 50s. Winds will be out of the southwest, northwest, or north at 10-20 mph on Thursday with north or east winds at 10-20 mph Thursday Night.

(Extended Forecast)

Strong high pressure will pass by to our north-northeast from Friday into Saturday with another shot of cool air remaining to our northeast but the southwest flank of this next chilly airmass will give a glancing blow to our area Friday and early Saturday...sort of similar to what occurred Tuesday Evening. Expect dry conditions for Friday and Saturday with highs in the 60s and 70s on Friday with mainly 70s expected for Saturday. Lows Friday Night will be in the 40s and 50s with mainly 50s expected for Saturday Night. Next cold front looks to pass through our area during the late Sunday-Monday time period with an opportunity for some showers as this front moves through.

Still looks like will see cooler air move into the Upper Midwest during the middle and end of next week as an upper level ridge sets up to our west which will mean a northwest flow aloft around our area with temperatures falling back toward normal levels for late September...however if we see more of a northerly flow aloft develop which is possible then we would be looking at much cooler temperatures around the Upper Midwest. The GFS model over the past few days has been hinting at that possibility...but the last few model runs from Today have backed off on the real chilly air spilling south of the border.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly cloudy. Low 49 to 54. Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph becoming southwest after 4 AM.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 75 to 80. Wind southwest to west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 48 to 53. Wind north becoming northeast to east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 63 to 68.

.Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 45 to 50.

.Saturday... Mostly sunny. High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 50 to 55.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75.

Normal High Temperature Today 64 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 45 degrees

Tim