Monday, August 31, 2009

8/31/09: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:20 PM CDT, Monday, August 31st, 2009

*Record Event*

Record low temperature of 38 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota, on Sunday, August 30th, 2009. Previous record low temperature for the date was 39 degrees which was set in 1988.

*Record Event*

Record low temperature of 32 degrees occurred at International Falls, Minnesota, on Sunday, August 30th, 2009. Previous record low temperature for the date was 35 degrees which was set in 2007.

Here are some low temperatures across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from This Morning, Monday, August 31st, 2009.

International Falls MN: 36 degrees

Hibbing MN: 31 degrees

Two Harbors MN: 37 degrees

Silver Bay MN: 34 degrees

Bigfork MN: 36 degrees

Aitkin MN: 36 degrees

Cloquet MN: 37 degrees

Phillips WI: 37 degrees

3 miles South of Tower MN: 31 degrees

Embarrass MN: 27 degrees

Floodwood MN: 35 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: 32 degrees

Winter WI: 34 degrees

Butternut WI: 35 degrees

Upson WI: 36 degrees

Weather Highlights:

...Pleasant daytime highs and cool nighttime lows sum up the weather across our area for the next several days...

...Almost an Indian Summer type weather pattern in place since some parts of our area have had frost the last few days...

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Strong high pressure of 1024 mb has moved into Southern Wisconsin-Northern Illinois late Today but it's ridge extends north-west into Central Minnesota. Mostly sunny-sunny skies prevailed across our area Today with a somewhat milder day compared to Sunday...Highs Today were in the middle 60s to lower 70s with 4 PM 850 mb temperatures of +7 to +9 degrees C. Dewpoints This Afternoon were running in the 40s to around 50 degrees with PWS right around one half inch once again. Winds Today were out of the south, west, or north under 15 mph.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Jet stream winds have relaxed to more normal late Summer levels Today and have really diminished compared to just a few days ago. An upper level low (576 meters) was drifting east through Southwestern Montana This Afternoon while an H5 trough covered Eastern Canada-Northeast U.S. Northwesterly flow aloft was found over the Upper Midwest Today on this final day of August 2009. H5 ridging (588 meters) was confined to the Southwest U.S. and adjacent portions of Western-Central Texas Today.

(Tonight)

High pressure will be centered to our southeast which will result in mainly clear skies along with a threat for some patchy late night fog. Lows will be in the 40s to around 50 degrees but colder 30s will occur in the traditional cold spots. Winds Tonight will be out of the south, west, or north under 12 mph.

(Tuesday and Tuesday Night)

High pressure remains in control of our weather as it stays put to our southeast. Look for mostly sunny-sunny skies on Tuesday with clear-partly cloudy skies Tuesday Night. May see some early Morning and late night fog patches around our area. Highs Tuesday will be in the 68-75 degree range with lows Tuesday Night in the 40s to lower 50s. Look for south winds under 15 mph during this period.

(Extended Forecast)

High pressure should remain in control of our weather from mid to late week as it remains to our south-east. The disturbance moving into the Northern Rockies Today is forecast to drop south-east and should remain far enough to our southwest to prevent any showers from reaching our local area later this week. Will still have to monitor a cold front which is expected to drop south out of Northern Canada during the Thursday-Friday time period...however right now it appears that this boundary will not make it south of the border. All in all it looks like it will be mainly dry across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Wednesday through Friday with just an outside risk for a passing shower later this week from the cold front to our north. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be mainly in the 70s with lows both nights generally in the 50s. Looking ahead into the Labor Day holiday weekend features more of the same weather with pleasant temps and no rain until perhaps early next week. Temperatures may turn cooler however near Lake Superior later this week or this weekend as we could see an easterly component to the wind start to develop during that time.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Clear. Patchy fog possible late. Low 42 to 47. Wind south to southwest under 12 mph.

.Tuesday... Patchy fog possible early. Sunshine. High 69 to 74. Wind south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible late. Low 47 to 52. Wind south under 12 mph.

.Wednesday... Patchy fog possible early. Mostly sunny. High 70 to 75.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. Afternoon showers possible. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 68 to 73.

Normal High Temperature Today 70 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 50 degrees

Tim

Sunday, August 30, 2009

8/30/09: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:58 PM CDT, Sunday, August 30th, 2009

Record Event:

Record low temperature of 34 degrees occurred at International Falls, Minnesota, on Saturday August 29th, 2009. The previous record low temperature for the date was 35 degrees set in 2007.

Weather History:

On this date in 1988... A record low temperature of 39 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

From the National Weather Service, Duluth, MN:

*Frost Advisory* has been issued for all of Northeast...Eastcentral...and Northcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. This advisory is in effect from 1200 AM CDT Tonight until 700 AM CDT Monday.

Counties included in the advisory are: Koochiching MN...Itasca MN...Cass MN...Crow Wing MN...Aitkin MN...Pine MN...Carlton MN...St. Louis MN...Lake MN...Cook MN...Douglas WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Iron WI...Burnett WI...Washburn WI...Sawyer WI...and Price WI...

Some cities included in the advisory are: International Falls MN...Grand Rapids MN...Walker MN...Brainerd MN...Aitkin MN...Hill City MN...McGregor MN...Pine City MN...Sandstone MN...Hinckley MN...Moose Lake MN...Wrenshall MN...Esko MN...Cloquet MN...Duluth MN...Floodwood MN...Cotton MN...Hibbing MN...Embarrass MN...Hoyt Lakes MN...Crane Lake MN...Ely MN...Two Harbors MN...Whyte MN...Isabella MN...Forest Center MN...Murphy City MN...Silver Bay MN...Grand Marais MN...Tofte MN...Lutsen MN...Grand Portage MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Hurley WI...Siren WI...Grantsburg WI...Shell Lake WI...Minong WI...Hayward WI...Park Falls WI...and Prentice WI...

High pressure overhead will bring another night of mainly clear skies...light winds...and unseasonably cool temperatures to Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the lower to middle 30s with slightly milder conditions expected closer to Lake Superior. Some of the traditional cold spots could drop into the 26-29 degree range by Morning. Areas of frost are forecast to develop inland from Lake Superior late Tonight and early Monday.

A frost advisory means that frost is possible. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

Here are some low temperatures around Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from earlier Today, Sunday, August 30th, 2009.

Duluth MN: 38 degrees

International Falls MN: 32 degrees

Silver Bay MN: 32 degrees

Ely MN: 32 degrees

Grand Marais MN: 36 degrees

Crane Lake MN: 32 degrees

Bigfork MN: 30 degrees

Superior WI: 39 degrees

Hayward WI: 35 degrees

Babbitt MN: 29 degrees

3 miles South of Tower MN: 31 degrees

Embarrass MN: 27 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: 32 degrees

4 miles East of Island Lake MN: 36 degrees

Upson WI: 34 degrees

Gurney WI: 35 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Partly cloudy-sunny skies prevailed across our area Today with a real autumnal feel to the air with highs mainly in the 60s to around 70 degrees along with dewpoints in the 30s and 40s with PWS around one half inch! 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +5 to +7 degrees C. Winds Today were north, east, or northwest under 15 mph. Surface map late This Afternoon features a 1024 mb high centered over Central Minnesota.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Amplified north-northwest H5 flow was in place This Afternoon across the Upper Midwest with upper level troughing in place over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes/Central-Eastern Canada. A disturbance was dropping south-southeast across Iowa Today but no precipitation has occurred near this system. An upper level low (576 meters) continued to move very slowly toward the east out of Oregon/Washington and was heading into Idaho late Today. H5 ridging has been squashed farther south compared to previous days with the axis of this H5 ridge covering the Southwest U.S. Today.

(Tonight)

Mostly clear skies are expected with another crisp fall like night in late August. Look for patchy fog and frost across our area mainly away from Lake Superior. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s but some 20s are expected once again in the traditional cold spots. Winds will be variable under 10 mph. Strong high pressure will remain over our area Tonight.

(Monday and Monday Night)

High pressure will remain in control of our local weather as it continues to sit over the Upper Midwest. Look for mostly sunny skies on Monday and clear-partly cloudy skies Monday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 40s but some 30s are expected in the traditional cold spots. Look for variable to southerly winds at 5-15 mph during this period.

(Extended Forecast)

High pressure remains in control of our weather for Tuesday and Tuesday Night with daytime highs in the 60s and 70s with nighttime lows in the 40s and lower 50s. The area of high pressure from Tuesday into Wednesday will edge slightly more to our east while the upper level low currently across the Pacific Northwest moves east-southeast toward the Northern-Central Plains from mid to late week...This feature will bring some showers to areas mainly west-south of our area from mid to late week...Will also see a cold front drop south out of Central Canada from Thursday into Friday and this boundary could cause a few showers to develop across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin both those days...however these rain chances look very low at this time. High temperatures on Wednesday will be mainly in the 70s with lows Wednesday Night mainly in the 50s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*Frost Advisory* in effect from Midnight CDT Tonight until 7 AM CDT Monday...

.Tonight... Mostly clear with areas of fog possible late. Patchy frost developing away from Lake Superior Overnight. Low 36 to 41 but a little warmer in Downtown Duluth. Wind north under 12 mph.

.Monday... Patchy fog possible early. Mostly sunny. High 66 to 71. Wind southwest around 12 mph.

.Monday Night... Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible late. Low 45 to 50. Wind south to southwest under 10 mph.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 48 to 53.

.Wednesday... Partly sunny. High 70 to 75.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. Afternoon showers possible. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 70 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 50 degrees

Tim

Saturday, August 29, 2009

8/29/09: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:46 PM CDT, Saturday, August 29th, 2009

Cold Morning up North...Here are some low temperatures that occurred earlier Today, Saturday, August 29th, 2009.

International Falls MN: 34 degrees

Hibbing MN: 38 degrees

Bigfork MN: 39 degrees

Crane Lake MN: 39 degrees

Northome MN: 38 degrees

Embarrass MN: 36 degrees

Littlefork MN: 38 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: 35 degrees

From the National Weather Service, Duluth, MN:

*Frost Advisory* is in effect from 900 PM CDT This Evening until 900 AM CDT Sunday Morning for portions of Northern and Northeast Minnesota.

Counties included in the Advisory are: Koochiching MN...Itasca MN...Central-Northern St. Louis MN...Lake MN...and Cook MN...

Some cities included in the Advisory are: International Falls MN...Northome MN...Littlefork MN...Togo MN...Grand Rapids MN...Meadowlands MN...Cotton MN...Hibbing MN...Tower MN...Ely MN...Embarrass MN...Virginia MN...Hoyt Lakes MN...Crane Lake MN...Orr MN...Forest Center MN...Whyte MN...Wales MN...Two Harbors MN...Murphy City MN...Isabella MN...Silver Bay MN...Tofte MN...Grand Marais MN...Lutsen MN...and Grand Portage MN...

High pressure building into the area from the Northern Plains will result in clearing skies across the advisory area Tonight...the clear skies combined with diminishing wind speeds will result in the threat for areas of frost across parts of Northern and Northeast Minnesota later Tonight and early Sunday. The highest liklihood for frost will be in low lying areas and sheltered areas and for locations Inland from Lake Superior. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to middle 30s Tonight in the Advisory area with slightly milder temperatures close to Lake Superior.

A Frost Advisory means that frost is possible...Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Low pressure of 1002 mb was centered over the Lower Michigan/Lake Huron area as of 3 PM with high pressure of 1024 mb located to our west-north. Showers wrapping around this surface low and upper level low affected portions of Northwest Wisconsin west to the North Shore of Lake Superior in Northeast Minnesota Today where skies stayed mainly cloudy...Areas from Koochiching...Itasca...Crow Wing...Western-Northern St. Louis Counties in Minnesota saw alot more sun Today compared to the rest of our area. Highs Today were in the 50s and 60s with 3 PM 850 mb temperatures of +4 to +5 degrees C with 500 mb temperatures around -18 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the north, northwest, or northeast at 10-20 mph.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Amplified northerly H5 flow covered the Upper Midwest Today with a (558 meters) H5 low covering Lake Huron with a broader upper level trough covering the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region Today along with a 100 knot H3 jet which has shifted south-southeast into Southern Wisconsin and Northeast Iowa per RUC model analysis. 60 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls were found near this upper level system Today across the Eastern Great Lakes. A new upper level low (576 meters) was centered over Southern Washington-Northern Oregon This Afternoon with 60 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls located over parts of the Pacific Northwest. This latter system will take it's sweet old time tracking south-east during the next 5 days or so and it may become a player in our weather with time... H5 ridging (588-594 meters) along with +20 to +34 degree C H85 temperatures were in place over the Central-Southern Rockies...Southwest U.S. Today.

(Tonight)

Mostly cloudy skies across Northwest Wisconsin and east-south of the Iron Range will start to clear out from north to south during the night as the H5 low/surface low over the Eastern Great Lakes This Afternoon shifts slightly more to the east Tonight. Meanwhile strong high pressure will remain to our west-north. Areas of showers and drizzle across Northwest Wisconsin and in far Eastern Minnesota will end during the Evening hours. Look for some patchy fog late Tonight along with a frost threat along and north of a Grand Rapids to Two Harbors Minnesota line. Skies across western-northwest parts of our area will remain generally fair Tonight. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s with some 20s possible in the traditional cold spots across Northcentral Minnesota. Winds will be out of the north, northwest, or northeast at 5-15 mph with gusts around 20 mph This Evening.

(Sunday and Sunday Night)

Strong high pressure will be centered over our area during this period. Should see more sun on Sunday compared to what occurred on Saturday...but some clouds will likely develop at times during the day...overall expect partly-mostly sunny skies for Sunday. Clear-partly cloudy skies are expected for Sunday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be mainly in the 60s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 30s and 40s. Could see some patchy fog redevelop late Tomorrow Night and we could also see some patchy frost across portions of Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast Minnesota especially away from Lake Superior and in low lying/sheltered areas. Winds will be out of the north, northwest, or northeast during this period under 15 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

Quiet weather is on tap across our area for Monday-Tuesday as strong high pressure starts to push off to our south-east with time. High temperatures in the 60s and 70s are expected for both days with lows in the 40s and 50s.

The aforementioned upper level low currently over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to track south-east from mid to late week while a cold front attempts to drop south toward our area from Central Canada later this week. Gonna have to monitor the evolution of the disturbance to our west and the front to our north and see if they try to hook up or not. The possibility does exist for a few showers across southern parts of our area by Thursday with a few more showers possible across the entire area Thursday-Friday depending on if that cold front to our north drops south or not. Rain chances are not particularly big at this time and it is certainly possible that the disturbance approaching from the Pacific Northwest will keep the bulk of the showery weather southwest-south of our area later this week while the boundary to our north produces an isolated shower risk but nothing really more than that the way it looks now.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Areas of showers and drizzle ending This Evening. Cloudy skies with decreasing cloudiness Overnight. Patchy fog possible late. Low 37 to 42...A little warmer in Downtown Duluth. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 15 mph becoming north.

.Sunday... Patchy fog possible early. Partly sunny. High 60 to 65. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible late. Low 40 to 45. Wind variable around 10 mph.

.Monday... Patchy fog possible early. Mostly sunny. High 68 to 73.

.Monday Night... Mostly clear. Low 45 to 50.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 48 to 53.

.Wednesday... Partly sunny. High 70 to 75.

Normal High Temperature Today 71 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 51 degrees

Tim

Friday, August 28, 2009

8/28/09: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:56 PM CDT, Friday, August 28th, 2009

Gale Event for the open waters of Central Lake Superior Tonight and Saturday with winds of 30-40 knots and waves peaking at 12 feet on Saturday...The gale warning is east of Duluth-Superior and the highest winds/waves will be found east-northeast of the Duluth Harbor as winds remain northerly.

Weather Highlights:

Very cool weekend with still a threat for some patchy frost...

Sunday looks a touch warmer compared to Saturday...

Weather History:

On this date in 1984... A record high temperature of 91 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

On this date in 1982... A record low temperature of 34 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

West Duluth rainfall total from last night and Today: 1.10"

Widespread rainfall amounts of one half inch to one inch fell across Northeast and Eastcentral Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin last night and Today with some locally heavier totals especially across Central-Northern St. Louis County. The bulk of the rain fell east of a line from International Falls to Bena to Cross Lake.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Cold front responsible for the latest rain/scattered thunderstorm event to hit our area has moved into Central Wisconsin and Southeast Minnesota as of mid-Afternoon with low pressure of 1013 mb centered over the Keweenaw Penninsula. High pressure ridge of 1024-1026 mb was centered well to the northwest-north-and northeast of our local area. Mostly cloudy skies covered the area Today with areas of drizzle and light rain showers across Northeast Minnesota in an area of minus mid teens below zero H5 temperatures and 6.5 c/km Mid Level Lapse Rates while showers and scattered thunderstorms affected parts of Northwest Wisconsin until around midday as the actual cold front was moving through those areas. Highs Today were running a good 10-20 degrees colder than Thursday with 50s and 60s widespread across our area Today with 3 PM 850 mb temperatures of +5 to +9 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the north, northwest, or northeast at 10-20 mph.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Flow aloft was becoming more amplified once again...something we have seen numerous times over the last few months. An upper level trough (570 meters) was in the process of developing over the Upper Great Lakes/Central Ontario Province region with a (594 meter) H5 ridge in place across the Central Rockies/Southwest U.S. An unusually strong 100-110 knot H3 jet was in place This Afternoon from Central Manitoba Province southeast to Central Minnesota per RUC model analysis. Upper level low covered Northcentral Wisconsin with movement toward the east-southeast. Another H5 low was centered in Western Georgia with movement toward the north-east. Upper level trough was in place over the Northeast Pacific...Pacific Northwest...and British Columbia.

(Tonight)

Areas of showers and drizzle will linger This Evening across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with most if not all the measurable rain coming to an end later Tonight. Upper level low/upper trough will be centered to our east Tonight with strong high pressure off to our north-northwest. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies Tonight with lows in the 40s but some 30s are possible across Northern Minnesota depending on the amount of clear that may take place Tonight. Look for north or northwest winds at 10-20 mph.

(Saturday and Saturday Night)

Strong high pressure ridge will remain to our west-north during this period with a strong H5 low/trough centered to our east. Look for mostly cloudy-partly sunny skies on Saturday with areas of drizzle or rain showers possible with some possibility for lake enhanced shower activity for a time Saturday Afternoon especially along the South Shore of Lake Superior and possibly the Arrowhead of Minnesota where a N-NE 850 mb wind develops. Cold advection will persist across our area during this period with H85 temperatures falling to +2 to +6 degrees C. Highs Saturday will be in the 50s and 60s. Look for some clearing to take place Saturday Night with lows in the 30s and 40s. Could see some areas of frost develop late Saturday Night away from Lake Superior and mainly in Northcentral areas of Minnesota. Winds will be from the north or northwest at 10-20 mph during this period.

(Extended Forecast)

Strong high pressure will be in control of our weather from Sunday into Tuesday as it moves slowly across the Upper Midwest. Partly cloudy skies are expected during that time with high temperatures mainly in the 60s on Sunday with 60s and 70s for Monday. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 40s with some 30s and areas of frost possible in the traditional cold spots away from Lake Superior. Lows Monday Night will be mainly in the 40s. Temperatures are forecast to be around seasonal averages during the middle and end of next week the way it looks now as high pressure pushes off to our south-east. Will have to monitor the track of a disturbance coming out of the Northern Rockies during the Wednesday-Thursday time period. Majority of the models Today keep this system south of our area...but the latest GEM-GLOBAL brings it farther north with shower chances for western-southern parts of our area by Thursday.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Drizzle and light rain showers ending This Evening. Mostly cloudy with partial clearing possible late. Low 43 to 48. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 57 to 62. Wind north at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday Night... Becoming partly cloudy. Low 38 to 43...a little warmer in Downtown Duluth. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Partly sunny. High 60 to 65.

.Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 40 to 45.

.Monday... Mostly sunny. High 68 to 73.

.Monday Night... Mostly clear. Low 45 to 50.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 68 to 73.

Normal High Temperature Today 71 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 51 degrees

Tim

Thursday, August 27, 2009

8/27/09: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:51 PM CDT, Thursday, August 27th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 1984... A record high temperature of 92 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

On this date in 1986... A record low temperature of 32 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Widespread 70s were observed across our area Today for daytime highs with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies. 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +12 to +15 degrees C with an area of -2 to +4 degree C H85 temperatures lurking to our north-northeast This Afternoon. Afternoon dewpoints were in the 50s to around 60 degrees with PWS of 1.00"-1.20" across Northern Minnesota and from 0.80"-0.90" across Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota. An area of rain showers has developed This Afternoon over Northcentral Minnesota with movement of this rain toward the east-southeast around 20-25 mph. These showers were developing near a cold front which as of 4 PM extended from far Northern Lake Superior to Southern Ontario Province to Central North Dakota. Low pressure of 1016 mb was centered over the Northern South Dakota-Southern North Dakota area with high pressure of 1026 mb centered over Central Alberta Province with a 1026 mb high up in Northern Ontario Province.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Northwest H5 flow was in place across the Upper Midwest Today with an upper level low and upper level trough digging south-east into the Northern Plains and adjacent areas of Central-Western Canada. Another H5 low covered Northeast Canada with another upper low spinning off the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi. Upper level ridging (594 meters) covered the Central Rockies and Southwest U.S.

(Tonight)

Cold front will settle south-east and will pass through most of our area Tonight. Atmosphere will be weakly unstable along and ahead of this boundary Tonight with CAPES generally under 500 j/kg with Lifted Indices around zero to -3 degrees C. Dewpoints will hold in the 50s and lower 60s with PWS of 1.00"-1.20" and H85 td's of +8 to +12 degrees C. Scattered showers will be found across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with a few thunderstorms possible as well although severe weather is not expected in our area Tonight. Brief heavy downpours and occasional lightning strikes will be the main threats from any thunderstorm Tonight with a lesser threat for hail up to one half inch in diameter and wind gusts to 35 mph. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies Tonight with lows in the 50s and lower 60s with some 40s possible in far Northern Minnesota. Winds will be out of the south, southwest, east, or north at 10-20 mph.

(Friday and Friday Night)

Low pressure will be pulling off to our north-east during this period with an upper level trough associated with an intensifying 100-120 knot upper level jet covering the Northern Plains-Upper Midwest. Heights will start to come down beginning this period along with falling 850 mb temperatures of +2 to +6 degrees C from north to south across our area by Friday Afternoon and Friday Night. Look for mostly cloudy-partly sunny skies on Friday with scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm in spots as colder H5 temperatures of -14 to -18 degree C spread south into our local area. A few showers could also linger into Friday Evening with partly-mostly cloudy skies expected. Highs Friday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Friday Night in the 40s with some 30s possible in Northern Minnesota. Look for north or west winds at 10-20 mph during this period.

(Extended Forecast)

Strong H5 trough will cover the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region this weekend with strong high pressure building into the Northern Plains. Could see a few showers around our area on Saturday otherwise it looks dry from Saturday Night through Sunday Night. Possibility also exists for a period of lake induced showers near Lake Superior Saturday Afternoon and Evening as 850 mb winds veer northeast for a time. Clouds are forecast to be rather extensive on Saturday although some sunny breaks could occur from time to time. Expect partly-mostly cloudy skies for Saturday Night-Sunday with mostly fair skies for Sunday Night. Highs Saturday will be in the 50s and 60s with mainly 60s expected for highs on Sunday. Lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the 30s and 40s. Areas of frost could develop both Saturday Night and Sunday Night for locations away from Lake Superior. Strong high pressure will remain in control of our weather early next week with a return flow starting to spread into our area by the middle of next week as this high begins to shift further south-east away from our area. It looks generally dry next week although we could see a few showers sometime Wednesday or early Thursday as we could see some sort of a disturbance approach the area from the Northern Plains. By later next week a cold front may start to approach the area from the northwest-north although it may hold off until next weekend.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. A thunderstorm also possible. Low 52 to 57. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest Overnight. Chance of rain 50%.

.Friday... Cooler. Showers possible. Considerable cloudiness. High 60 to 65. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 43 to 48. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 57 to 62. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday Night... Becoming partly cloudy. Low 40 to 45.

.Sunday... Partly sunny. High 60 to 65.

.Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 38 to 43.

.Monday... Mostly sunny. High 63 to 68.

Normal High Temperature Today 71 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 51 degrees

Tim

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

8/26/09: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:44 PM CDT, Wednesday, August 26th, 2009

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Partly-mostly sunny skies were found across our area Today with just some passing high clouds and cumulus clouds from time to time. Highs Today were mainly in the 70s but cooler 60s were common closer to Lake Superior. 3 PM 850 mb temperatures ranged from +11 to +13 degrees C. An area of +20 to +26 degree C H85 temperatures covered the Northern Rockies and Western High Plains Today while an area of zero to -2 degree C H85 temperatures were found around the Hudson Bay Canada area. The chilly pocket of air currently to our northeast will be of more concern for our local area by this weekend. Weather map as of mid-Afternoon places a 1014 mb low over Southern Saskatchewan Province with a stationary front extending from Southern Alberta Province east-northeast to Southern Ontario Province. High pressure of 1022 covered Lake Superior while low pressure of 1016 mb was moving into Northwest Missouri.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

H5 troughs covered Northeast Canada...Western Canada including adjacent areas of the Pacific Northwest and the Northeast Pacific. A shortwave trough continued to move slowly east out of the Rockies with an H5 low covering Louisiana while another H5 low heads east across Northern Saskatchewan-Northwest Manitoba Province.

(Tonight)

Clear to partly cloudy skies are forecast across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with high pressure off to our east controlling our weather while a stationary front stays off to our north-northwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in an area of warm air advection north of the border could clip extreme Northern parts of Minnesota Overnight...although right now it appears that the bulk of any activity Tonight would stay to our north. Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with some areas of fog developing Overnight. Winds will be out of the south or east under 15 mph.

(Thursday and Thursday Night)

An area of low pressure will pass northwest-north of our area during this period while a stationary front to our north Today turns into a cold front while dropping south-east into our area by Thursday Afternoon and Thursday Night. The airmass along and ahead of this boundary will become weakly unstable Thursday Afternoon-Evening with CAPES across Northcentral Minnesota around 1000 j/kg with Lifted Indices around zero to -2 degrees C. Mid level winds are forecast to be around 30 knots with about 25-35 knots of 0-6 KM Bulk Shear and Effective Bulk Shear expected...dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s and PWS around an inch are also expected across our area during this period... A few showers or thunderstorms could develop across Northern Minnesota Thursday Afternoon and Thursday Evening with the threat for some of this activity to spread farther south-east into Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin by Thursday Night. Highs Thursday will be in the 70s and lower 80s with cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Lows Thursday Night will be in the 50s. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies during this period with south, east, or southwest winds on Thursday at 10-20 mph with north or southwest winds Thursday Night at 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

Cold H5 temperatures of -12 to -18 degrees C will drop south into our area Friday-Saturday as an upper level low and H5 trough develops to our north-east. 500 mb heights will drop and so will the 850 mb temperatures which are forecast to range from +2 to +6 degrees C across our area from Friday Night through most of the weekend. We could see a few showers or perhaps an isolated thunderstorm around the area on Friday with a lingering chance for a few showers Friday Night into Saturday with dry weather expected Saturday Night and Sunday as the upper trough/low moves more into the Eastern Great Lakes area while strong high pressure builds into the area from the west-northwest. High temperatures Friday and Saturday will be mainly in the 50s and 60s with some locations in far Northeast Minnesota possibly struggling to reach 50 degrees on Saturday. Lows Friday Night will be mainly in the 40s with lows Saturday Night in the 30s and 40s. Potential still does exist for some frost away from Lake Superior both Saturday Night and Sunday Night.

Still looks like will see a moderating trend in temperatures take place over the Upper Midwest next week as strong high pressure moves off to our southeast which will result in a southerly flow of milder air across our area toward the early to middle portion of next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible late. Low 47 to 52. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 72 to 77. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph becoming west to northwest. Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday... Showers possible. Considerable cloudiness. High 63 to 68. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday Night... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 45 to 50. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 57 to 62. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday Night... Becoming partly cloudy. Low 40 to 45.

.Sunday... Partly sunny. High 60 to 65.

Normal High Temperature Today 72 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 52 degrees

Tim

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

8/25/09: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:35 PM CDT, Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

...Frost threat increasing this weekend for parts of the area...

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Cold front tracked through Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin last night through This Morning. A very strong cap remained in place out ahead of this boundary last night which resulted in some shower development but with very little thunderstorm activity around our area early This Morning. A heavier area of rain and thunderstorms affected southern portions of Northwest Wisconsin early Today with rainfall amounts estimated by Duluth Doppler Radar ranging from 0.80"-1.75" across Southern Washburn...Central-Southern-and Eastern Sawyer...Southern Ashland...Iron...and Price Counties with the heaviest rainfall of 2.25"-3.50" falling over Southeastern Sawyer/Western-Central Price Counties. The bulk of this rain fell south and east of a line from Mellen to Shell Lake.

This cold front has pushed well to our south-east This Afternoon with a very nice late Summer day across our area Today with partly to mostly sunny skies along with high temperatures generally in the 70s with dewpoints mainly in the 50s while PWS dropped to around .60"-.80" as of mid-Afternoon. 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +9 to +15 degrees C. Surface map This Afternoon places a strong 994 mb low over Southern Hudson Bay Canada with high pressure of 1018 mb centered across the Northern Plains while low pressure of 1010 mb was located over Eastern Alberta Province. Cold front number one which moved through our area earlier Today extended from Eastern Ontario Province to Southwest Wisconsin to Central Kansas as of late Afternoon with a secondary cold front centered over Central Ontario Province.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Strong H5 low (558 meters) was moving east through the Northeastern half of Ontario Province This Afternoon with 12 hour 500 mb height falls of 60-120 meters covering Eastern Lake Superior and adjacent areas of Central-Eastern Ontario Province Today. The flow aloft behind this system was mainly west or west-southwest over the Upper Midwest Today with an upper level low centered over the Southwest U.S. with a plume of mid/high level moisture streaming northeast through the Plains and Eastern Rockies out ahead of this system. A vigorous upper level low was centered over the Northeast Pacific This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery with H5 troughing beginning to affect the Western portions of Canada and the Pacific Northwest. All in all it is a fairly active weather pattern across the U.S. and Canada which is pretty unusual for late August.

(Tonight)

High pressure will continue to build east out of the Northern Plains Tonight with clear-partly cloudy skies found over our area. May see some patchy late night fog develop in spots as lows fall into the 50s with some 40s in the traditional cold spots. Look for north or west winds under 15 mph.

(Wednesday and Wednesday Night)

High pressure will be directly over our area on Wednesday before it starts to shift east of our area Wednesday Night. Expect mostly sunny-partly cloudy skies Wednesday and clear-partly cloudy skies Wednesday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 40s and 50s. Look for north, east, or south winds under 15 mph during this period.

(Extended Forecast)

Thursday will feature south winds out ahead of an area of low pressure to our northwest. A cold front will be attached to this low and this boundary is forecast to drop south-east and will pass through Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Thursday Night and Friday. Not alot of moisture will be available with this system thanks to a seperate area of low pressure which will be passing south of our area through Thursday...this southern system will have the richer moisture. So for our area it looks like dewpoints will climb into the 50s with PWS up toward an inch as this boundary moves through Thursday Night and Friday. Could see a few showers or isolated thunderstorms accompany the cold frontal passage later this week. The bigger story continues to be what will happen from Friday through Sunday as an unusually deep H5 trough/low takes shape to our east. North winds and very cool temperatures will spread into our area from Friday through Sunday as heights drop and H85 temperatures lower toward the zero to +6 degree C range from late this week through this weekend. If skies can clear out enough during the nighttime hours then we could certainly be dealing with a frost potential for areas away from Lake Superior both Saturday Night and Sunday Night...but again this will depend on where exactly the upper trough/low sets up and whether or not we see enough clearing and decoupling of the winds occur at night. Daytime highs Saturday and Sunday will only be in the 50s and 60s with a slight possibility for highs not getting out of the 40s across the Arrowhead of Minnesota on Saturday.

Thursday's high temperatures will reach the 70s possibly even lower 80s if we see enough sunshine. Lows Thursday Night will be in the 50s. Highs Friday will be in the 60s and 70s with some 50s possible in far Northern Minnesota. Lows Friday Night will be in the 40s and lower 50s.

A moderating trend in temperatures is expected to occur across the Upper Midwest next week as this latest upper level trough heads into Northeast Canada while strong high pressure begins to pull off to our south-southeast during the early-mid part of next week. There could be a front moving into the area sometime later next week but timing of all this is subject to change.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible late. Low 47 to 52. Wind northwest under 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Mostly sunny. High 70 to 75 but cooler closer to Lake Superior. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 48 to 53. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. High 72 to 77.

.Thursday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 65 to 70. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday Night... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 45 to 50. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 57 to 62. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 72 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 52 degrees

Tim

Monday, August 24, 2009

8/24/09: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:40 PM CDT, Monday, August 24th, 2009

Unseasonably strong upper level trough to usher in a very chilly airmass by this weekend...

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

A few showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two have been moving northeast across portions of Northcentral Minnesota Today. The majority of this activity has been north of a line from Backus to Hill City toward the Cotton and Ely areas. Mostly cloudy skies were found across Northern areas of Minnesota Today with more sunshine across Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota. Highs Today were in the 70s and lower 80s with cooler 60s closer to Lake Superior. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +15 to +19 degrees C with 700 mb temperatures of +13 to +14 degrees C... A very strong cap to say the least. Winds Today were out of the south or east at 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph over parts of Eastcentral Minnesota. Dewpoints This Afternoon were running in the 50s and 60s with a southwesterly H85 jet in the 30-45 knot range This Afternoon per RUC model analysis. This low level jet will help in transporting an axis of +10 to +16 degree C H85 td's and 1.30"-1.60" PW air east into our area Tonight. Surface map This Afternoon features a cold front extending from Eastern North Dakota to Central South Dakota with low pressure of 1005 mb centered in Southeast Manitoba Province.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Southwest flow aloft was in place over the Upper Midwest Today with a 70 knot H3 jet in place across the Northern Plains-Western Plains area. An upper level trough with 30-60 meter 500 mb 12 hour height falls was heading east across the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains This Afternoon while an upper level low heads east through the Southwest U.S. H5 ridging covered the Plains Today while a deep H5 trough was in place across the Eastern U.S.

(Tonight)

Look for the cold front over the Northern Plains This Afternoon to head east Tonight with the front passing through all but Northwest Wisconsin by 700 AM Tuesday. Instability will continue to increase along and ahead of this boundary Tonight with ELEVATED CAPES of 500-1500 j/kg overspreading the area from southwest to northeast. There will also be a period of surface based instability before Midnight across parts of Northcentral Minnesota with CAPES up to 1000 j/kg and Lifted Indices of -2 to -6 degrees C. 6 KM Bulk Shear will stay in the 30-40 knot range Tonight with Effective Bulk Shear generally around 20-35 knots. A fairly strong low level jet of 30-45 knots will persist most of the night along and east of the cold front while winds in the mid levels of the atmosphere stay in the 30-45 knot range. Mid Level Lapse Rates will also remain very steep at least through the Evening hours and will range from 7.5-8.5 c/km.

An isolated risk for severe thunderstorms does exist until around Midnight Tonight generally along and west of a line from International Falls to Brainerd... The entire area could see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop through the night however...but the greatest threat for any severe weather looks to be in western parts of our area if storms can overcome the warm layer aloft.

The main threats from any thunderstorm Tonight would be from dangerous lightning...wind gusts to 40 mph...heavy downpours...and hail under one half inch in diameter...but there is the possibility for hail to reach one inch in diameter and wind gusts to 60 mph in western areas through about Midnight Tonight.

Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies Tonight with a muggy night in store for most areas. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with south, southeast, or northwest winds at 10-20 mph.

(Tuesday and Tuesday Night)

Cold front will exit Northwest Wisconsin Tuesday Morning with any lingering showers or thunderstorms in that area confined to the Morning hours. Dry weather is then forecast area-wide during the Afternoon and Nighttime hours. Highs Tuesday will be generally in the 70s to around 80 degrees with lows Tuesday Night in the 40s and 50s. Look for north or west winds at 10-25 mph during this period.

(Extended Forecast)

High pressure which will build east out of the Northern Plains on Tuesday will be exiting to our east by mid-week which will make way for an area of low pressure and cold front which is forecast to drop south-east through our area later this week. This boundary could cause a few showers or thunderstorms to develop over parts of our area during the Thursday-Friday time period but of more significance is what is expected to develop behind this system during the Friday-Sunday time frame...

Forecast models Today are showing another very strong H5 low/trough getting carved out across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes/Central Canada region thanks in part to a coastal low which is forecast to ride up the Eastern seaboard this weekend while upper level ridging retrogrades into the Western U.S.

500 mb heights will crash and so will the 850 mb temperatures/surface temperatures across our local area as gusty north or east winds develop depending on where exactly this upper low sets-up. H85 temperatures are expected to drop to +2 to +6 degrees C across most of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin by Friday Night through Saturday Night and this could result in daytime highs barely getting out of the 50s on Saturday if this whole system develops the way the forecast models are showing Today. Those types of temperatures for late August are almost unheard of around our local area...certainly something to keep an eye on.

The potential also exists for some drizzle and areas of light rain at times across our area from Friday Night through early Sunday.

It's also possible that we could see some threat for patchy frost at some point this weekend depending on the whole evolution of this weather system and if or when we see a night of clearing take place.

The good news in all this is that we should see a moderating trend in temperatures occur across the Upper Midwest most of next week unless a more amplified northerly H5 flow lingers and if that's the case then reinforcing shots of chilly fall like air will more than likely find there way into our neck of the woods as we head through early September. The transition from Summer to Autumn appears to be setting up...at least the first of what will likely be many possible transitions before Autumn stays for good.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Humid. Variable cloudiness with showers or thunderstorms possible mainly late. Low 55 to 60. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph with east winds at 10 to 15 mph closer to Lake Superior becoming south Overnight. Winds becoming west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph after 400 AM. Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 73 to 78. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 48 to 53. Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 48 to 53.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Thursday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 65 to 70. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 72 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 52 degrees

Tim

8/24/09: Thunderstorm threat

Issued at 2:50 PM CDT, Monday, August 24th, 2009

...Scattered thunderstorms possible across the Northland Tonight...

Counties affected...

Koochiching MN...Itasca MN...Cass MN...Aitkin MN...Pine MN...Carlton MN...St. Louis MN...Lake MN...Cook MN...Douglas WI...Burnett WI...Washburn WI...and Bayfield WI...

Discussion...

A cold front will move east out of the Northern Plains and will pass through Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight and Tuesday Morning. Southerly winds along and ahead of this front will transport deeper moisture into our area and this combined with increasing amounts of instability could cause scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop from This Evening through early Tuesday.

The presence of a warm layer of air aloft may hinder thunderstorm development...but it is expected that the cap will lessen somewhat during the Evening and Overnight hours and that combined with some convergence/lift near the cold front should be able to cause a few thunderstorms to form.

A 30-45 knot low level jet along with 30-40 knots of mid level winds could result in a few strong to severe thunderstorms especially before Midnight across parts of Northcentral Minnesota.

Large hail up to one inch in diameter and damaging wind gusts to 60 mph are the main threats from any storm that turns severe. At this time it appears that the greatest threat for isolated severe thunderstorms will be across Koochiching...Itasca...Cass...and Crow Wing counties in Northcentral Minnesota and Eastcentral Minnesota between 600PM-1100PM CDT This Evening.

Locally heavy downpours...dangerous lightning strikes...wind gusts to 40 mph...and hail under one half inch in diameter will be the greater threats however from thunderstorms Tonight.

Persons across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin should go about there normal activities but keep an eye to the sky and have a place of shelter nearby should thunderstorms approach your area. Listen to NOAA weather radio, television outlets, or other sources of media for possible watches or warnings.

Tim

Sunday, August 23, 2009

8/23/09: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:36 PM CDT, Sunday, August 23rd, 2009

Another Morning of chilly temperatures across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Here are some low temperatures from Today, Sunday, August 23rd, 2009.

Hibbing MN: 38 degrees

Two Harbors MN: 37 degrees

Silver Bay MN: 34 degrees

Grand Marais MN: 34 degrees

Superior WI: 39 degrees

Ashland WI: 35 degrees

Hayward WI: 38 degrees

Embarrass MN: 33 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: 36 degrees

Butternut WI: 37 degrees

Upson WI: 36 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Low pressure of 1012 mb was centered over far Western Ontario Province as of 4 PM with a cold front attached to that low extending southwest into far Northwest Minnesota through Northern South Dakota. Low pressure of 1004 mb was centered over the Southeast Montana-Northeast Wyoming area as of 4 PM with another cold front extending from the Alberta-Saskatchewan Province line into the Western half of Montana. High pressure ridge of 1018-1020 mb has exited our local area to the east Today. Partly to mostly sunny skies covered our area Today with high temperatures mainly in the 70s and lower 80s but cooler 50s and 60s were found closer to Lake Superior. 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +11 to +15 degrees C with H7 tempeatures of +9 to +11 degrees C. Moisture has increased Today especially across Northern-Northeast Minnesota where dewpoints This Afternoon were in the 55-65 degree range with PWS of 1.00"-1.10" with H85 td's of +8 to +14 degrees C. Southerly winds on the backside of the ridge of high pressure to our east has resulted in the increase in moisture across parts of our area Today along with milder temperatures away from Lake Superior.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Upper level troughs covered the Pacific Northwest and the Eastern half of the U.S. with H5 ridging (588 meters) covering the Southwest U.S. through the Central-Southern Plains. W-NW flow aloft was in place across the Upper Midwest Today north of this ridge and on the backside of the Eastern U.S. H5 trough.

(Tonight)

A cold front will remain just west-northwest of our immediate area with southerly winds along with milder and more humid conditions prevailing out ahead of this front across most of our area. Look for partly cloudy skies Tonight with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible from International Falls down toward Walker but with H7 temperatures around +10 degrees C this should keep any activity quite spotty in nature despite favorable amounts of instability and wind shear to support stronger convection across Western parts of our area Tonight. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with south or southeast winds at 10-20 mph.

(Monday and Monday Night)

A cold front will head east out of the Northern Rockies and across the Upper Midwest by Monday Night while the cold front across Northwest Minnesota This Afternoon either retreats north as a warm front on Monday or pretty much washes out. Could see a few showers or thunderstorms on Monday across Northern Minnesota...mainly north of a line from Bigfork to Forest Center otherwise the remainder of our area is expected to be fairly capped with 700 mb tempeatures of +10 to +12 degrees C and H85 temperatures nearing +20 degrees C. There could be enough lift/convergence with the approaching cold front Monday Night to cause a few showers or thunderstorms to flare up over Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin but with little cooling of the 700 mb temperatures...anything that was to form should be elevated in nature. Elvated CAPES of 500-1500 j/kg are forecast to be in place across most of our area Monday Night and this could support a risk for some hail and perhaps gusty winds.

0-6 KM Bulk Shear of 30-40 knots with Effective Bulk Shear around 25-35 knots combined with a SW H85 jet which is forecast to increase to 30-45 knots combined with around 40 knots of mid level winds from the WSW would be sufficient for some severe convection but the cap in place should keep any storms quite isolated in nature.

Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies during this period with highs Monday in the 70s and 80s with lows Monday Night in the 50s and 60s. It will feel a bit like Summer across most of our area Monday and Monday Night with dewpoints in the 57-66 degree range along with PWS of 1.00"-1.50".

Look for south, southeast, or southwest winds on Monday at 10-25 mph with west, northwest, or south winds Monday Night at 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

Cold front will exit south-east of our area on Tuesday with high pressure building into the Upper Midwest behind this boundary for both Tuesday and Wednesday. Looks dry at the moment during those two days with high temperatures mainly in the 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s. Model agreement starts to dwindle during the mid-late week portion and going into next weekend with some models hinting at a coastal low across the Eastern U.S. which would put our area in a chilly northerly flow aloft with the heat pushing back into the Western U.S. other models keep things somewhat milder from mid week into next weekend. Were also going to have to monitor the evolution of a new cold front and possible low pressure disturbances which may track along this boundary as it settles south-east into the Upper Midwest later this week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly cloudy. Low 52 to 57. Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday... Partly sunny. High 75 to 80. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph becoming west to northwest Overnight. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 73 to 78.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75.

Normal High Temperature Today 73 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 52 degrees

Tim

Saturday, August 22, 2009

8/22/09: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:42 PM CDT, Saturday, August 22nd, 2009

Precipitation statistics for Duluth, MN (Airport) Info. provided by the NWS, Duluth, MN.

August precipitation total through the 22nd: 5.02" which is 2.22" above normal.

Rain total since June 1st, 2009: 10.16" which is 1.09" below normal.

Precipitation total since January 1st, 2009: 18.06" which is 1.87" below normal.

A cold start to the day across parts of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Here are some low temperatures from This Morning, August 22nd, 2009.

International Falls MN: 37 degrees

Hibbing MN: 37 degrees

Silver Bay MN: 37 degrees

Crane Lake MN: 36 degrees

Bigfork MN: 36 degrees

Aitkin MN: 39 degrees

Hayward WI: 37 degrees

Embarrass MN: 33 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: 36 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

High pressure ridge of 1018-1020 mb covered the Plains...Upper Midwest...and the Central parts of Canada This Afternoon with low pressure of 1008 mb centered over Eastern Saskatchewan Province. Despite a few clouds over parts of Northwest Wisconsin Today skies were mainly sunny across the area with high temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s along with another day of more autumn like humidity levels with dewpoints mainly in the 40s with Afternoon PWS of just one half inch! 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +7 to +9 degrees C. Winds Today were variable in direction under 15 mph.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Upper level ridge of 588-594 meters covered most of the Central-Southern Rockies and Western High Plains This Afternoon per RUC model analysis with a deep H5 trough covering the Eastern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region while a new upper level trough covered parts of Western Canada and the Pacific Northwest with 60 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls located over Saskatchewan Province This Afternoon out ahead of this upper trough.

(Tonight)

Another crisp night is on tap for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with clear to partly cloudy skies and variable winds under 15 mph. Could see some patchy Overnight fog develop as lows fall into the 40s to around 50 degrees with 30s in the traditional cold spots.

(Sunday and Sunday Night)

High pressure ridge will begin to push more to the south-east of our area during this period which will cause a southerly wind to develop and this will usher in more seasonal level temperatures as we close out the weekend. Expect partly cloudy-mostly sunny skies for Sunday and clear-partly cloudy skies Sunday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be mainly in the 70s with lows Tomorrow Night mainly in the 50s. Look for south, southeast, or southwest winds at 10-20 mph during this period.

(Extended Forecast)

A cold front will move east-southeast across our area Monday Night and Tuesday Morning. Looks like will see dewpoints reach the upper 50s to mid 60s along and ahead of this boundary Monday and early Tuesday with PWS topping out from 1.25"-1.50". A few showers or thunderstorms could develop near this boundary across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Monday Evening through Tuesday Morning but with H7 temperatures rising toward +10 degrees C during that period...any thunderstorm that was able to develop would be elevated in nature due to the 700 mb temperatures being so warm. It does appear that will have quite a bit of elevated instability in place across our area Monday Night with CAPES up to 1250 j/kg and this combined with around 30 knots of vertical wind shear and 30-40 knots of W-SW winds at 500 mb and a 30-40 knot H85 jet from the southwest could lead to an isolated risk for severe thunderstorms Monday Night especially in Northcentral and Eastcentral Minnesota. Highs Monday will be in the 70s and lower 80s with lows Monday Night in the 50s to low 60s. Highs Tuesday will be mainly in the 70s with lows Tuesday Night in the 40s and 50s. It does looks like this cold front exit to our south-east during the day Tuesday with some lingering showers possible mainly in Northwest Wisconsin Tuesday Afternoon.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible late. Low 45 to 50. Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Sunday... Patchy fog possible early. Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75. Wind becoming south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 73 to 78.

.Monday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly sunny. High 73 to 78. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75.

Normal High Temperature Today 73 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 53 degrees

Tim

Friday, August 21, 2009

8/21/09: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:36 PM CDT, Friday, August 21st, 2009

West Duluth rainfall total from about 200 PM Wednesday through early Thursday:

0.25" which brings the two day rain total in West Duluth to 5.15"

Additional tornado reports from Eastern Minnesota from Wednesday, August 19th, 2009.

Information provided by the NWS in Chanhassen, Minnesota.

The Minneapolis area tornado was rated an EF-0 with the tornado touching down at 150 PM CDT and lifting at 200 PM CDT. Maximum winds ranged from 75-85 mph. This tornado traveled approximately 4.5 miles and had a maximum width of 500 yards.

Another tornado touched down at North Branch Minnesota on Wednesday with this tornado rated an EF-0 with maximum winds of 70-80 mph. The tornado traveled 1 mile with a maximum width of 200 yards.

Weather History:

On this date in 2004... A record low temperature of 37 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Low pressure of 998 mb has moved into Eastern Canada This Afternoon with high pressure of 1020-1022 mb centered to our west. Most of the area saw increasing amounts of sun This Afternoon with mainly Northwest parts of Wisconsin still seeing more clouds than sun. Highs Today were in the 60s and lower 70s with 4 PM 850 mb temperatures of +7 to +9 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the north or northwest 10-25 mph.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Northerly H5 flow was in place over the Upper Midwest Today with a (564) meter H5 low/upper level trough covering the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes/Central Canada area. Meanwhile a ridge of high pressure (594 meters) covered the Central-Southern Rockies with an upper level trough entering the Pacific Northwest.

(Tonight)

Look for clear-partly cloudy skies with areas of fog developing later in the night. Lows will be in the 40s and lower 50s with some 30s possible in the traditional cold spots. Winds will be out of the north or northwest under 15 mph.

(Saturday and Saturday Night)

High pressure will be in control of our weather which will result in partly cloudy-mostly sunny skies on Saturday with mostly clear skies Saturday Night. Could see some areas of fog early Tomorrow and again late Tomorrow Night. Highs Saturday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Saturday Night in the 40s and lower 50s with some 30s possible ince again in the traditional cold spots. Winds will be out of the north or east under 20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

High pressure will remain in control of our weather for Sunday and Sunday Night which will result in dry conditions with slightly milder temperatures compared to Saturday. Highs Sunday will be mainly in the 70s with lows Sunday Night in the 50s. By early next week a cold front is expected to move east-southeast across the Upper Midwest and with some moisture and instability developing along and ahead of this front we could see a few showers or thunderstorms develop during the Monday-Tuesday time frame. The mid to late part of next week appears dry at this time with more cool air spilling south into the area with strong high pressure building in from the northwest.

The long range GFS model over the last couple days has been hinting at a warmer than normal start to September across the Upper Midwest as the heat over the Western U.S. may start to shift north-east into our area toward the final days of August or during the beginning of September.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Areas of fog developing late. Low 45 to 50. Wind northwest to north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday... Areas of fog early. Otherwise mostly sunny. High 68 to 73. Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Areas of fog possible late. Low 45 to 50. Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 71 to 76.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 73 to 78.

.Monday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly sunny. High 73 to 78. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 73 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 53 degrees

Tim

Thursday, August 20, 2009

8/20/09: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:45 PM CDT, Thursday, August 20th, 2009

Record Event:

2.89" of rain fell at the Duluth Airport on Wednesday, August 19th, 2009 which established a new 24 hour rainfall record for August 19th. The previous record was 1.56" which was set way back in 1884!

Weather History:

On this date in 2004... A record low temperature of 36 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Torrential rains/high winds/and brief tornado spin-ups highlight Wednesday's intense storm system that affected portions of the Upper Midwest...This type of system is fairly unusual for late Summer...It had tropical storm type and or winter storm type characteristics.

Information provided by the NWS in Duluth and Chanhassen Minnesota:

Rainfall totals around Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Wednesday and Thursday...Some of these totals may not be final as additional rain continues into Friday Morning.

Askov MN: 5.49"

2.5 miles Southwest of Hinckley MN: 5.20"

Sandstone MN: 5.00"

Finlayson MN: 5.50"

Saginaw MN: 4.44"

Cloquet MN: 3.50"

3 miles North of Pine City MN: 3.49"

Oakland WI: 2.55"

Trade River WI: 2.87"

Bruno MN: 2.40"

Minong WI: 2.37"

Barnes WI: 2.23"

Washburn WI: 1.81"

Clam Lake WI: 1.76"

Embarrass MN: 1.43"

5 miles Southwest of Brainerd MN: 0.86"

Gile WI: 0.26"

Rain totals around the Duluth area...

Gary New Duluth: 4.00"

Proctor: 3.97"

National Weather Service Duluth: 3.16"

West Duluth: 4.90" from about Noon Wednesday through about 200 PM Today.

High winds from the east-northeast at 30 to 50 mph with higher gusts affected the immediate Duluth-Superior area late Wednesday Afternoon and early Evening which resulted in some wind damage around the city.

803 PM CDT: Non Thunderstorm Wind Damage at Duluth (St. Louis County MN) 8-10" diameter tree branch down in East Duluth.

725 PM CDT: Non Thunderstorm Wind Damage at Superior (Douglas County WI) One 50 foot tall tree 2" in diameter blown down at Barkers Island.

Eastern Minnesota Tornado Reports from Wednesday, August 19th, 2009

Cottage Grove MN: EF-0 to low end EF-1 Tornado damage at 240 PM CDT. Approximate path was 1200 yards with a max width of 75 yards. Estimated maximum wind speeds 90-100 mph.

Another tornado touched down Wednesday Afternoon in the Southern part of Minneapolis and moved north toward Downtown Minneapolis before lifting near the Minneapolis Convention Center. No report yet of how strong this tornado was.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Unseasonably cool day with widespread clouds along with areas of rain and drizzle affected most of our local area Today with some peeks for sun out toward the Walker/Brainerd areas. Highs Today were only in the 50s and 60s with north, east, or west winds at 10 to around 25 mph. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM were around +10 degrees C. Low pressure as of 3 PM was centered over the Western Upper Michigan-far Northeast Wisconsin area with a pressure of 998 mb with a 1020 mb high located in Western Saskatchewan Province.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Intense (564) meter H5 low was spinning around over the Upper Midwest This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery with a broader H5 trough with -12 to -16 degree C H5 temperatures covering the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. 30-60 meter 500 mb 12 hour height falls have shifted into the Great Lakes region Today near this storm. Upper level ridging of (588 meters) covered the Western U.S. with the core of the heat (594 meters) centered over Western Utah-Eastern Nevada-Southern Idaho.

(Tonight)

Strong low pressure will remain over Upper Michigan and Lake Superior with an upper level trough covering our area. Look for mostly cloudy skies along with areas of rain and drizzle with some fog also expected especially near Lake Superior. Lows Tonight will be mainly in the 50s with north, east, or west winds at 10-25 mph. Additional rainfall amounts Tonight will be in the 0.10"-0.25" range.

(Friday and Friday Night)

Low pressure along with an upper level trough will start to pull farther north-east away from our local area during this period with high pressure building into the area from the west-northwest. Look for mostly cloudy-partly sunny skies on Friday with a lingering chance for some light rain and drizzle especially during the Morning-early Afternoon hours across Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast Minnesota. Dry weather will then return to our area from Friday Afternoon-Friday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s with some 70s possible in western areas. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s and 50s. Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

High pressure will be in control of our weather this weekend which will result in dry and more normal level temperatures across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Highs Saturday will be in the 60s and 70s with mainly 70s expected for Sunday. Lows Saturday Night will be in the 40s and 50s with mainly 50s for Sunday Night. By early next week we could see a few showers or thunderstorms around the area thanks to a cold front which will pass through the Upper Midwest.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Damp with light rain...drizzle...and fog. Cloudy. Low 51 to 56. Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday... Lingering drizzle or light rain possible before Noon. Mostly cloudy during the Morning with partial clearing possible by the Afternoon. High 65 to 70. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night... Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible late. Low 47 to 52. Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday... Mostly sunny. High 70 to 75.

.Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible late. Low 47 to 52.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 72 to 77.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 73 to 78.

Normal High Temperature Today 73 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 53 degrees

Tim

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

8/19/09: Flood Advisory Information

Issued at 8:47 PM CDT, Wednesday, August 19th, 2009

*Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory*

From the National Weather Service, Duluth, Minnesota...

*Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for minor flooding of poor drainage areas in effect until 430 AM CDT Thursday for the following counties...

Carlton MN...St. Louis MN...Lake MN...and Northern Douglas WI...

Some cities affected:

Moose Lake MN...Carlton MN...Duluth MN...Floodwood MN...Brookston MN...Hibbing MN...Crane Lake MN...Ely MN...Cotton MN...Virginia MN...Forest Center MN...Isabella MN...Two Harbors MN...Wales MN...Superior WI...and Port Wing WI...

The heaviest axis of rain through the rest of the Evening and into the Overnight hours is forecast to be west and north of Duluth-Superior where another 1-3 inches of rain could fall Tonight. Rain totals from earlier Today have ranged from 2-5 inches across the advisory area.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause elevated levels on small creeks and streams through the early Morning hours.

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross safely. Move to higher ground.

Tim

8/19/09: High Wind Warning Information

Issued at 8:30 PM CDT, Wednesday, August 19th, 2009

*High Wind Warning*

From the National Weather Service, Duluth, MN:

*High Wind Warning* is in effect until 1200 AM CDT Tonight for the following counties...In Northeast Minnesota...Southern St. Louis County MN...Carlton County MN...and for Douglas County WI...

Some cities that are in this warning are: Duluth MN...Brookston MN...Floodwood MN...Esko MN...Cloquet MN...Carlton MN...Wrenshall MN...Cromwell MN...Moose Lake MN...Superior WI...Patzau WI...Poplar WI...Solon Springs WI...and Wascott WI...

A small intense low pressure system with very heavy spiral rainfall bands around the center is moving toward the Duluth-Superior area. Onshore winds of 50 mph with stronger gusts have been reported and will continue along the Duluth-Superior Waterfront This Evening. The more calm eye-like center of the storm is still expected to reach the Duluth-Superior area around Midnight Tonight...With a gradual weakening of this system expected later Tonight. Winds are expected to be less strong well inland.

Winds of 50 mph with stronger gusts will continue Downtown...Also in nearby inland residential areas and along the Duluth Superior Water Front This Evening. Sustainted winds of 50 mph have already brought down trees up to two feet in diameter along the Water Front. Wind damage is being reported further inland in Duluth residential areas. Intense spiral rain-bands have produced very heavy rain of 3-7" across many areas during the Afternoon. Tornadic activity was reported earlier Today across Southern Minnesota along the path of this storm.

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

Tim

8/19/09: Tornado Watch information

Issued at 4:59 PM CDT, Wednesday, August 19th, 2009

*Tornado Watch Information*

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklhahoma has issued *Tornado Watch* number 715 which is in effect until 1200 AM CDT Tonight for Western Wisconsin...Eastern Iowa...Southeast Minnesota...And Northwest Illinois.

Tornadoes...Hail to one inch in diameter...Thunderstorm wind gusts to 70 mph...And dangerous lightning are possible in these areas...

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statue miles east and west of a line from 85 miles north of Eau Claire Wisconsin to 5 miles east-southeast of Moline Illinois.

Counties in the Duluth area that are included in this watch are:

Burnett WI...Washburn WI...Sawyer WI...And Price WI...

Some cities in the Duluth area that are included in the tornado watch are:

Danbury WI...Siren WI...Grantsburg WI...Spooner WI...Minong WI...Shell Lake WI...Hayward WI...Exeland WI...Winter WI...Park Falls WI...Phillips WI...Ogema WI...and Spirit WI...

Tim

8/19/09: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:11 PM CDT, Wednesday August 19th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 2004... A record low temperature of 37 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

A strong Summer storm continued to move into the Upper Midwest This Afternoon with low pressure of 1002 mb centered over Western Minnesota with another 1002 mb low centered over Southern Manitoba Province. A cold front was pushing south-east across the Eastern Dakotas This Afternoon with a warm front centered over Southern Minnesota. Rain heavy at times along with embedded thunderstorms have been occurring Today across Northeast and Eastcentral Minnesota through Northwest Wisconsin while a small part of Northern Minnesota stayed mainly dry through late Today. High temperatures across our area were mainly in the 60s and lower 70s Today with 3 PM 850 mb temperatures around +12 degrees C. Dewpoints This Afternoon were in the 50s and 60s with PWS of 1.20"-1.50". Overcast skies covered the area Today with winds out of the south or east at 10 up to 20 mph.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

An unusually strong H5 trough was digging south-east into the Northern Plains Today with 30-60 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls occurring on the south-east side of the trough over the Upper Midwest. A 100 knot H3 jet streak extended from Western Saskatchewan Province south to Eastern Montana or on the west side of the upper trough while a potent lead shortwave continued to lift north-east out of Southern Minnesota.

(Tonight)

Rain wrapped isolated tornado risk exists before 10 PM Tonight over southern parts of our area...or from Pine County Minnesota east through Southern Douglas...Burnett...Washburn...and Sawyer Counties in Northwest Wisconsin. 1km SRH up to 200 m2/s2 and 3km SRH up to 300 m2/s2 combined with 30 knots of 1km Bulk Shear and 30-40 knots of 0-6 KM Bulk Shear and Effective Bulk Shear will offset an otherwise stable environment to produce a risk for thunderstorm elements that will be favorable to produce quick tornado spin-ups early This Evening.

A large area of rain with embedded thunder along with locally heavy downpours will persist before Midnight across Eastcentral and Northeast Minnesota through Northwest Wisconsin as low pressure moves into Central Minnesota Tonight while a warm front lifts northeast toward Central Wisconsin with an occluded front pushing east into the Upper Midwest.

Areas of showers will likely persist into the Overnight hours with isolated thunderstorms possible as well mainly in southern parts of our area.

Overcast skies with areas of fog are anticipated Tonight with lows in the 50s and 60s. Look for south, east, or north winds at 10-20 mph.

(Thursday and Thursday Night)

Low pressure will slowly exit to our east during this period while a strong H5 trough digs into the Upper Midwest. Mostly cloudy skies with areas of rain are expected across our area Thursday and Thursday Night with an isolated risk for thunderstorms in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota. Highs Thursday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows mainly in the 50s Thursday Night. Winds will be out of the north, east, or west at 10-25 mph during this period.

(Extended Forecast)

A light rain/drizzle risk could persist into Friday Morning across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as low pressure and upper level trough continued to push farther and farther away from our local area which will allow high pressure to build into the Upper Midwest beginning Friday Afternoon and lingering into the weekend. High temps Friday will be in the 60s with some 70s possible toward the Walker/Brainerd areas. Lows Friday Night will be in the 40s and 50s. Highs Saturday will be mainly in the 70s with lows Saturday Night in the 40s and 50s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory* in effect until 845 PM CDT This Evening.

.Tonight... Rain with heavy downpours along with isolated thunderstorms This Evening. Scattered showers lingering Overnight. Areas of fog. Low 53 to 58. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph. Chance for rain decreasing to 50% after 8 PM.

.Thursday... Occasional showers. Mostly cloudy. High 60 to 65. Wind north to northwest at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

.Thursday Night... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday... Showers possible during the Morning. Mostly cloudy. High 65 to 70. Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday Night... Clearing. Low 48 to 53.

.Saturday... Mostly sunny. High 70 to 75.

.Saturday Night... Fair. Low 48 to 53.

.Sunday... Mostly sunny. High 72 to 77.

Normal High Temperature Today 74 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 53 degrees

Tim

8/19/09: Flood Advisory

Issued at 3:52 PM CDT, Wednesday, August 19th, 2009

From the National Weather Service in Duluth, MN:

*Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory* has been issued until 845 PM CDT This Evening for parts of Northeast and Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Counties included:

Pine MN...Carlton MN...Southern St. Louis MN...Burnett WI...Western Washburn WI...and Western Douglas WI...

Some cities included:

Pine City MN...Hinckley MN...Moose Lake MN...Cloquet MN...Duluth MN...Superior WI...Chaffey WI...Danbury WI...Grantsburg WI...and Siren WI...

Discussion:

Doppler radar rainfall estimates indicate that 1 to 3 inches of rain has fallen This Afternoon in the advisory area with additional showers and embedded thunderstorms persisting into the mid-Evening hours. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain could fall in some locations within the advisory area This Evening.

The greatest rainfall amounts are expected along Interstate 35 and U.S. Highway 53 north to Cotton in Northeast Minnesota and along Wisconsin state Highway 35 from Superior to Danbury in Northwest Wisconsin.

Runoff from this excessive rainfall will cause minor flooding in urban areas to occur...especially along small streams and near low water crossings.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause elevated levels on small creeks and streams and ponding of water in urban areas...Highways...Streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage areas and low lying spots.

Tim

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

8/18/09: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:48 PM CDT, Tuesday, August 18th, 2009

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Far Northeast Minnesota saw extensive cloudiness Today while the rest of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin saw clouds earlier in the day which gave way to increasing amounts of sunshine This Afternoon. High temperatures Today were in the 60s and 70s with 3 PM 850 mb temperatures of +7 to +11 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the northwest or west at 10-20 mph. Surface map as of mid-Afternoon featured low pressure of 1002 mb centered over Northeast Canada with high pressure of 1016 mb centered over the Central Plains. Low pressure of 1002 mb was centered over Central Saskatchewan Province with a warm front extending southeast of this low into Western North Dakota.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

One potent upper level low/H5 trough (558 meters) continued to move east through Central Canada and the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes This Afternoon with 60 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls on the east side of this system across Eastern Canada This Afternoon. An even stronger H5 trough was digging south-southeast out of Western Canada into the Northern Rockies Today with a 100-110 knot H3 jet found on the west-southwest side of this system This Afternoon per RUC model analysis.

(Tonight)

Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies with high pressure centered to our south-southeast and low pressure well to our northwest. Warm advection was already moving into our area This Afternoon and this will persist through the night as southerly winds overspread the area later in the night. Could see a few showers or thunderstorms reach southern parts of our area after 3 AM Tonight on the nose of a 30 knot southwest low level jet. Lows Tonight will be in the 50s with some 40s in far Northeast Minnesota. Winds will be out of the west or northwest which will become south during the night. Wind speeds will be under 20 mph.

(Wednesday and Wednesday Night)

A strong upper level trough along with an occluded front and area of low pressure will be pushing southeast into the Upper Midwest during this period. A southwest low level jet of 25-35 knots will be found out ahead of this system which will result in an increase in moisture with dewpoints climbing into the mid 50s to lower 60s with PWS climbing to 1.00"-1.25" and H85 td's of +8 to +12 degrees C. Occasional showers and some thunderstorms are expected across our area during this period along with partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies on Wednesday with mostly cloudy skies Wednesday Night. Severe weather chances look quite slim around the local area during this period but the strength of this system combined with CAPES of 500-1000 j/kg and LI'S of zero to -2 degrees C along with 20-30 knots of vertical wind shear and a 100 knot H3 jet over the Northern Rockies/Western High Plains could be enough to cause an isolated severe thunderstorm risk Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Evening...especially across western-southern parts of our area. Damaging winds and large hail would be the main risks if storms turn severe. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 50s to around 60 degrees. Look for south, southwest, or east winds at 10-20 mph on Wednesday with south, east, or northwest winds at 10-20 mph for Wednesday Night.

(Extended Forecast)

A system more typical of Winter rather then late Summer will be deepening Thursday-Thursday Night as it passes east-northeast of our local area. Gusty northerly winds and widespread cloudiness is forecast over most of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Thursday and Thursday Night with areas of showers also expected. May even see a thunderstorm or two over Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota Thursday Afternoon. Some lingering showers could occur early Friday over the area...Then it should dry out Friday Afternoon through the weekend as this system moves into Eastern Canada and high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. High temperatures Thursday will be in the 50s and 60s with 60s and perhaps a few 70s possible on Friday. Lows Thursday Night will be mainly in the 50s with 40s and 50s expected Friday Night. Temperatures this weekend are forecast to be right around normal.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Scattered clouds early...Becoming mostly clear This Evening...Skies turning partly to mostly cloudy Overnight. Low 50 to 55. Wind northwest to west at 10 to 15 mph. Wind becoming south at 5 to 15 mph late.

.Wednesday... Occasional showers...possibly a thunderstorm. Considerable cloudiness. High 68 to 73. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

.Wednesday Night... Occasional showers...possibly an Evening thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest. Chance of rain 60%.

.Thursday... Occasional showers...possibly a few rumbles of thunder during the Afternoon. Mostly cloudy. High 60 to 65. Chance of rain 50%.

.Thursday Night... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 65 to 70. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 48 to 53.

.Saturday... Mostly sunny. High 72 to 77.

Normal High Temperature Today 74 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 54 degrees

Tim

Monday, August 17, 2009

8/17/09: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:51 PM CDT, Monday, August 17th, 2009

West Duluth rainfall totals this past weekend...August 15th-16th, 2009.

Saturday through 630 AM CDT Sunday: 0.35"

Sunday after 630 AM CDT: 0.20"

Weekend rainfall total: 0.55"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Low pressure as of 3 PM CDT was centered over Eastern Manitoba Province with a pressure of 1002 mb. A cold front attached to this low was pushing east toward Western Minnesota. High pressure of 1022 mb was found over the Northern Rockies This Afternoon. Skies across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin were partly to mostly cloudy Today with spotty showers developing at times. Highs were generally in the 70s Today with 3 PM 850 mb temperatures of +11 to +15 degrees C. Dewpoints This Afternoon were mainly in the 50s with PWS of 0.80"-1.00". Winds Today were out of the southwest at 10-25 mph.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

A potent upper level trough with -14 to -18 degree C H5 temperatures was moving into the Upper Midwest This Afternoon with a strong upper level disturbance spreading south-east out of Eastern Manitoba Province/Eastern North Dakota. An area of 30-60 meter 500 mb 12 hour height falls were found Today ahead of this H5 trough across Northern Minnesota/Western Lake Superior/and Western-Central Ontario Province.

(Tonight)

A cold front will move east and will pass through our area This Evening while a strong 558 meter upper level low passes by to our north. Cold advection will push south-east into our area during the night as the cold front moves through. Look for H85 temperatures to drop toward +4 to +8 degrees C by Morning. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will pass through our area This Evening with CAPES at or below 750 j/kg with LI'S from zero to -2 degrees C and Lapse Rates from 6.0-8.0 c/km. There is favorable vertical wind shear in place to support strong thunderstorm development This Evening...but a lack of sufficient instability and moisture should keep any convection fairly weak. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies Tonight with lows in the 40s and 50s. Southwest to west winds are expected at 10 up to 25 mph.

(Tuesday and Tuesday Night)

High pressure will be centered to our southwest and south during this period with Tonight's upper level low pushing into Eastern Canada. Look for mostly sunny skies on Tuesday with partly cloudy skies expected Tuesday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Tomorrow Night generally in the 50s. Look for west or northwest winds on Tuesday with south or west winds Tuesday Night. Could see wind gusts over 20 mph on Tuesday.

(Extended Forecast)

South winds will develop across our area on Wednesday as a vigorous area of low pressure/upper level trough/and strong cold front spread southeast into the Upper Midwest. Showers or thunderstorms will return to our area Wednesday and Wednesday Night as the low and cold front move through. Could see some risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday Afternoon or Evening depending on the timing of this system and how much instability/warmth/and moisture can build north ahead of the cold front. This system will continue to affect our weather Thursday and Thursday Night as a winter like area of low pressure exits to our south-east while deepening as it does so. Wrap around moisture and cold advection will cause widespread clouds and areas of rain to linger across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Thursday-Thursday Night. Dry weather will return to our area by this weekend and perhaps even by Friday as this unusually strong weather system exits to the east. High temperatures on Wednesday will be mainly in the 70s with lows Wednesday Night in the 50s. Highs Thursday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Thursday Night mainly in the 50s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... A few showers or an isolated thunderstorm along with variably cloudy skies during the Evening. Becoming partly cloudy late. Low 50 to 55. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75. Wind southwest to west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly sunny. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 40%.

.Wednesday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 51 to 56. Chance of rain 40%.

.Thursday... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 60 to 65. Chance of rain 40%.

.Thursday Night... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 62 to 67. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 74 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 54 degrees

Tim