Friday, July 31, 2009

7/31/09: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:58 PM CDT, Friday, July 31st, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 2006... A record high temperature of 95 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies were common across our area Today with an area of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Afternoon thanks in part to some lingering cold air aloft with -14 degree C 500 mb temperatures. Brief heavy downpours have been the biggest threat from this activity Today. High temperatures were generally in the upper 60s and 70s Today with 300 PM 850 mb temperatures of +11 to +13 degrees C. Afternoon dewpoints were running in the 50s with PWS of 0.80"-1.00". Weather map This Afternoon featured an area of low pressure of 1006 mb centered over Southern Manitoba Province with a secondary low of 1006 mb centered over the Northeast South Dakota-Southeast North Dakota area. A strong cold front was connected to both lows and extended from far Northwest Minnesota to Southeast North Dakota to Eastcentral South Dakota as of 3 PM CDT.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

A powerful shortwave and upper level trough with 60 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls was shifting south-east into North Dakota This Afternoon with unseasonably cold H5 temperatures of -18 to -22 degrees C found over Manitoba and Saskatchewan Provinces. A strengthening H3 jet streak of 80 knots was located on the backside of this system over Eastern Saskatchewan Province This Afternoon per RUC model analysis with a 70 knot H3 jet streak found on the south-southeast side of this system from Southeastern Montana through Southern North Dakota and Northern South Dakota.

(Tonight)

A strong cold front will push east through our area during the night. Warm air advection and some moist advection will commence This Evening ahead of this potent weather system. A 30-45 knot southwesterly H85 jet is forecast to develop ahead of the cold front by mid-Evening and this combined with strong forcing and convergence near the frontal boundary will lead to a fairly widespread area of rain with scattered thunderstorms across all of our area Tonight. The precipitation will spread west to east through the night...reaching areas from International Falls toward Grand Rapids...Brainerd...and Aitkin between 600 PM-800 PM...then spreading east toward Ely...Duluth...Hinckley...and Pine City between 900 PM-1100 PM...The rain area will then reach far Northeast Minnesota and Northwestern Wisconsin toward Midnight or a little after the Midnight hour. Instability looks fairly weak with CAPES generally under 500 j/kg with Lifted Indices of zero to around -2 degrees C...as a result the potential for severe weather is quite low. However this system is very dynamic and will have lots of upper level support working for it with a 60-80 knot H3 jet stream which is forecast to extend from the Dakotas toward Northcentral Minnesota Tonight. With all this upper air support and the strong lift associated with the cold front we should see at least some thunderstorm activity occur with a threat for locally heavy rainfall. Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with some 60s possible toward Hayward and Park Falls. Winds will be out of the south, southwest, or southeast at 10-20 mph with winds shifting to the northwest at 10-25 mph during the night as the cold front moves through.

(Saturday and Saturday Night)

Strong cold air advection will be in full force on Saturday as H85 temperatures drop to +4 to +8 degrees C across our area. The strong cold front will exit to our east early Saturday with a powerful H5 low centered to our north-northeast while unusually cold air in the upper levels spreads south into our area on Saturday. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies Tomorrow with a risk for a few showers or possibly a thunderstorm or two mainly across Northern areas of Minnesota. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s and lower 70s but some areas north of the Iron Range could hold in the 50s if clouds remain persistent. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s and 50s with partly-mostly cloudy skies expected. Look for gusty northwest winds at 15-30 mph Tomorrow with winds under 15 mph from the northwest Tomorrow Night.

(Extended Forecast)

Plenty of model uncertainty continues Today from late this weekend into early next week. Models are struggling with the timing of disturbances/low pressure systems as well as the track of such features and with how far north-east to push the warmer air. The GFS continues to be the warmest model with +12 to +20 degree C H85 temperatures surging north-northeast into most of our area later this weekend...The NAM on the other hand is much cooler with H85 temps of just +4 to +8 degrees C with all the warm air remaining south of our area...but it could clip the Brainerd area on Sunday. The GEM-GLOBAL and UK models push warmer air into our local area but they hold it off until early next week...

With chilly air remaining to our north and the warmer air trying to push in from the Northern Plains...a fairly strong baroclinic zone will become established which is fairly rare for early August. This baroclinic zone combined with a fast northwest flow aloft will result in a couple of low pressure systems traversing the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest from Sunday into early next week. Again timing of all this is subject to change.

Any one of those disturbances could trigger some shower or thunderstorm activity over portions of our area from later this weekend into early next week. This setup actually is favorable for severe weather to develop...but questions remain on if enough moisture and instability can build north out ahead of these systems.

High temperatures Sunday and Monday will be in the 60s and 70s...these temperatures may end up cooler or warmer though depending on how everything sets up. Low temperatures Sunday Night and Monday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Rain and a few thunderstorms developing after 9 PM. Mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph becoming northwest at 15 to 25 mph after Midnight.

.Saturday... Windy. Variable cloudiness. An Afternoon shower or thunderstorm possible. High 67 to 72. Wind northwest at 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday Night... Becoming partly cloudy. Low 47 to 52. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Partly sunny. High 68 to 73.

.Sunday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 50 to 55. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday... Showers possible. Partly sunny. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 48 to 53.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 65 to 70.

Normal High Temperature Today 77 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 56 degrees

Tim

Thursday, July 30, 2009

7/30/09: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:48 PM CDT, Thursday, July 30th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 1992... A record low temperature of 42 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Note: 0.40" of rain here in West Duluth in about a 10 minute time period around 2 PM Today as a pretty strong thunderstorm moved through which was accompanied by a brief period of small hail and wind gusts around 30 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

A pretty unsettled day as cold air aloft combined with minimal surface heating led to a fairly wet/stormy day across our area as numerous showers and thunderstorms developed and passed south-east through Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Afternoon 500 mb temperatures down to -16 degrees C along with CAPES under 1000 j/kg with LI'S of zero to around -2 degrees C and Lapse Rates from 6.0-7.0 c/km was enough to kick off this convection Today with a few of the storms for brief periods of time even producing some small hail around one quarter inch in diameter thanks to low freezing levels of around 2500 feet! Mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies were common across our area Today with high temperatures mainly in the 60s to around 70 degrees. 3 PM 850 mb temperatures were sitting right around +9 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the north or west at 10-20 mph. Surface map This Afternoon featured an area of low pressure of 1000 mb centered over Northeast Ontario Province with a cold front attached to this low extending southwest into Northwestern Wisconsin.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Northwest flow aloft prevailed Today across the Upper Midwest with a (558 meter) H5 low centered over Northern Ontario Province while a cold H5 trough continued to cover the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest with another potent upper level trough shifting south-east out of Northwestern Canada.

(Tonight)

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will decrease in coverage and intensity by late This Evening...Until then expect a few of the storms to contain locally heavy downpours and occasional cloud to ground lightning strikes and possibly some brief showers of quarter inch diameter hail. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies Tonight with the potential for some areas of late night fog. Lows will fall into the 40s and 50s with north or west winds under 15 mph.

(Friday and Friday Night)

The cold upper level trough over our area Today will shift east during this period which will make way for another system which will move in from the west... A cold front will move east into the Upper Midwest by Friday Night with a 30-40 knot southwest low level jet developing ahead of this system which will cause warm air advection and some moist advection to occur out ahead of the cold front Friday Night. Look for partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies on Friday with a few showers or thunderstorms possible across Northern Minnesota and out toward the Ashland/Hayward/Park Falls area in Northwestern Wisconsin... A better chance for showers or thunderstorms will return to the entire area Friday Night as forcing/lift associated with the cold front shift east through our area. Severe threat looks fairly minimal at this point due in part to the front passing through the area later Friday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 40s and 50s. Look for southwest winds at 10-20 mph on Friday with southwest or northwest winds at 10-20 mph Friday Night.

(Extended Forecast)

A rather tight baroclinic zone more common in the Autumn or Winter months is forecast to become established across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest later this weekend into early next week with H85 temperatures hovering around +6 degrees C across far Northern Minnesota with +15 to +22 degree C H85 temps spreading into Western-Southern parts of Minnesota. One or more areas of low pressure could track along this temperature gradient from Sunday into early next week... Forecast models Today continue to be in disagreement however with how far north the warmer air will spread which could have an impact on the final tracks that these surface lows could take. A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin later this weekend through early next week...but timing these systems will continue to be difficult this far out. High temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be in the 60s and 70s but some 80s are possible on Sunday toward the Brainerd area. Lows Saturday Night will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Sunday Night in the 50s to around 60 degrees.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Scattered showers ending This Evening. Skies becoming partly cloudy. Patchy fog possible Overnight. Low 47 to 52. Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 70 to 75. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night... Showers or thunderstorms developing. Mostly cloudy. Low 51 to 56. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph Overnight. Chance of rain 50%.

.Saturday... Showers possible early. Partly sunny. High 68 to 73. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 48 to 53.

.Sunday... Partly sunny. High 68 to 73.

.Sunday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75.

Normal High Temperature Today 77 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 56 degrees

Tim

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

7/29/09: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 2:36 PM CDT, Wednesday, July 29th, 2009

Here are some departure from normal temperature stats across Minnesota for July 2009...Data provided by Paul Douglas and the St. Cloud Times.

International Falls MN: -7.3 degrees...Coolest July on record through the 28th...

Duluth MN: -3.1 degrees...Top ten coolest July's on record through the 28th...

St. Cloud MN: -3.3 degrees

Twin Cities MN: -2.9 degrees

Rochester MN: -4.5 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies were found over our area Today with a few spotty showers at times affecting mainly Northern areas of Minnesota...however the shower coverage Today has been less compared to recent days. High temperatures Today were in the 60s to lower 70s with 2 PM 850 mb temperatures of +9 to +11 degrees C. Winds Today were generally from the west or north under 15 mph.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

As one upper level low heads into Northeastern Canada This Afternoon a new upper level low drops south-east into the Northern Plains...A fairly vigorous upper level trough associated with minus 18 to minus 20 degree C H5 temperatures were in place This Afternoon across North Dakota near this upper trough.

(Tonight)

Upper level disturbance along with an upper level low will continue to approach our area from the west Tonight...A large area of rain currently over Eastern South Dakota and Western Minnesota is forecast to remain on an easterly track Tonight which means that Southern areas will have the best chance at seeing some rain for Tonight...or mainly affecting Crow Wing...Southern Aitkin...Pine...Burnett...Washburn...Sawyer...and Price counties in our local area. Other more instability type showers (spotty in nature) should come to an end before Midnight across Northcentral areas of Minnesota. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies Tonight with lows in the 40s and 50s along with west or north winds under 15 mph.

(Thursday and Thursday Night)

Upper level trough will be centered across the Upper Midwest during this period with minus 14 to minus 20 degree C H5 temperatures over our area. Scattered showers will be possible just about anywhere in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Thursday into early Thursday Evening...An isolated risk for thunderstorms exists as well especially if we can get some sunshine to occur and some warming at the surface. CAPES generally around 100-250 j/kg and LI'S around zero degrees C are expected across our area Thursday Afternoon. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees with lows Tomorrow Night in the 40s and 50s. Winds will be out of the northwest at 10-20 mph during this period. Expect partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies on Thursday with partly-mostly cloudy skies Thursday Night.

(Extended Forecast)

Thursday's system exits to our east on Friday making way for yet another area of low pressure/cold front/and upper level trough which will cruise through the area from Friday Night through the weekend... The best chance for showers across our area looks to take place Friday Night and Saturday with an isolated risk for thunderstorms as well. Right now it appears that Sunday and Sunday Night will be mainly dry...although a few Afternoon-Evening showers cannot be ruled out mainly in Northern Minnesota. There continues to be some model disagreement Today for late this weekend so things may change a bit from day to day until the models settle down...but right now it looks mainly dry later this weekend based on latest model projections. High temperatures Friday should reach the 70s for most areas as southwest winds develop ahead of the next cold front. Lows Friday Night will be mainly in the 50s. Highs Saturday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Saturday Night in the 40s and 50s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Considerable cloudiness. Showers possible. Low 50 to 55. Wind west to northwest under 15 mph. Chance for rain 30%.

.Thursday... Considerable cloudiness. Scattered showers...isolated thunderstorms also possible. High 66 to 71. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Thursday Night... Showers possible early. Becoming partly cloudy. Low 48 to 53. Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 70 to 75.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 51 to 56. Chance of rain 40%.

.Saturday... Showers possible mainly early. Partly sunny. High 68 to 73. Chance of rain 40%.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 48 to 53.

.Sunday... Partly sunny. High 68 to 73.

Normal High Temperature Today 77 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 56 degrees

Tim

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

7/28/09: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:00 PM CDT, Tuesday, July 28th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 2006... A record high temperature of 97 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

On this date in 1992... A record low temperature of 45 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
(Today's Weather)

Low pressure of 996 mb was centered over the Northeast half of Ontario Province This Afternoon with high pressure of 1022 mb centered over the Eastern half of Alberta Province. Cold temperatures aloft of -14 to -18 degrees C has shifted south into the area Today and this has helped in producing some spotty shower activity with even a rumble or two of thunder This Afternoon out in the Itasca...Cass...and Crow Wing county areas of Minnesota. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies covered our area Today with high temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +6 to +9 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the north or west at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Main upper level low (558 meters) was located in the Northeast part of Ontario Province This Afternoon per RUC model analysis/water vapor satellite imagery. A secondary upper level low was dropping south-southeast out of Southeastern Manitoba Province This Afternoon. Additional upper level energy was dropping south into the Northern Rockies late Today. H5 ridging has really been surpressed over the last couple of days with the ridge axis Today extending from Central Washington southeast to Southern Colorado to Eastern Texas to Eastern South Carolina. The core of the ridge (594 meters) was centered over Southern Arizona This Afternoon.

(Tonight)

Instability showers that popped up Today over Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will come to an end by Midnight. Skies will remain partly-mostly cloudy Tonight with lows in the 40s and 50s. Winds will be out of the north or west around 20 mph or less.

(Wednesday and Wednesday Night)

Cold air aloft will remain over our area on Wednesday and this could be enough to generate a few pop up showers mainly across Northern Minnesota. Our attention will then focus to our west where more upper level energy will be located... This energy will start to approach our area by Wednesday Night which will lead to a risk for showers mainly over southern parts of our area. The 12z model run from Today continue to disagree as to the timing of this system. The NAM and GFS have virtually flipped flopped from 24 hours ago...with Today's 12z NAM bringing rain into Duluth-Superior by Wednesday Evening with the GFS holding off the rain until later Wednesday Night... The UK/GEM-GLOBAL/and NAVY models continue to keep things mainly dry across our area Wednesday Night... *Note...The 18z NAM has slowed down the onset of the rain now and does not have it reaching Duluth-Superior until late Wednesday Night... Highs Wednesday under partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Wednesday Night under partly-mostly cloudy skies in the 40s and 50s. Winds will be out of the southwest, north, or west around 20 mph or less during this period.

(Extended Forecast)

An upper level trough over our area along with cold temperatures aloft will set the stage for the possibility of scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Thursday...Should dry out Thursday Night and most of Friday...Then the next weather system associated with an area of low pressure...cold front...and H5 trough will shift east-southeast through our area from Friday Night through Saturday with another system possibly moving through parts of the Upper Midwest later this weekend. Scattered showers or thunderstorms will be possible at times across our area from late Friday through the weekend...Although the forecast models are showing some differences with the system for later this weekend...so it may end up dry at least for parts of our area on Sunday. High temperatures Friday and Saturday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Friday Night and Saturday Night in the 40s and 50s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Showers possible before Midnight... Otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. Low 48 to 53. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Wednesday... Variable cloudiness. High 69 to 74. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible late. Low 50 to 55. Wind north at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 63 to 68. Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday Night... Showers possible early. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 48 to 53. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 70 to 75.

.Friday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 51 to 56. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly sunny. High 68 to 73. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 77 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 56 degrees

Tim

Monday, July 27, 2009

7/27/09: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 2:31 PM CDT, Monday, July 27th, 2009

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Low pressure of 1008 mb has shifted into Southern Minnesota This Afternoon...This low combined with some warm air advection north-east of the surface low helped to produce an area of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall late last night and early This Morning over portions of Eastcentral Minnesota into far Northwest Wisconsin... Duluth doppler radar rainfall estimates indicated that 1.25"-3.50" of rain fell over the counties of Southern Cass MN...the Southern half of Crow Wing MN...far Southern Aitkin MN...Central-Southern Pine MN...Southern half of Burnett WI...and Southern Washburn WI...The highest totals were found over Southwestern Aitkin county through Southern Crow Wing and Southern Cass Counties in Minnesota. Keep in mind that some of these totals could be a tad on the high side due to contamination factors. Another area of low pressure was centered over Western Ontario Province This Afternoon with a cold front attached to this low dropping southeast through Northeast and Eastcentral Minnesota as of mid-Afternoon. This northern system is accompanied by a very strong H5 low which was twirling east-southeast through Southern Ontario Province This Afternoon with a broader H5 trough sinking south out of Central Canada which was associated with -16 to -20 degree C 500 mb temperatures This Afternoon along with 60 meter 12 hour H5 height falls. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been tracking southeast through parts of Northern-Northeast Minnesota Today in association with this upper level system and surface cold front. High temperatures across the area were in the 70s to lower 80s Today with Afternoon dewpoints running in the 50s to around 60 degrees with PWS of 0.90"-1.30" as of 2 PM. 850 mb temperatures as of midday ranged from +12 to +15 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the northwest, west, or southwest at 10 to around 20 mph.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Northwest flow aloft was found across the Upper Midwest This Afternoon with a 70-90 knot H3 jet streak extending from Central Saskatchewan southeast to Northwest Minnesota per RUC model analysis.

(Tonight)

Cold front will exit Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Evening. The airmass across our area will remain marginally unstable through mid-Evening with CAPES up to 1000 j/kg with LI'S of zero to -4 degrees C along with Low Level Lapse Rates of 7.0-8.0 c/km. 40 knot northwesterly 500 mb flow coupled with around 30-40 knots of vertical shear could cause an isolated stronger thunderstorm risk into early Evening...although it appears that most of the thunderstorms will stay below severe levels across our area...Heavy downpours and occasional lightning strikes will be the main threats with still a risk for some hail up to one half inch in diameter and wind gusts up to 40 mph if any stronger thunderstorm does develop early Tonight. Otherwise look for partly-mostly cloudy skies during the night with a few lingering showers possible through the Overnight hours. Lows will be in the 50s Tonight with southwest or northwest winds at 10-20 mph.

(Tuesday and Tuesday Night)

An upper level low pressure system will be centered to our north-northeast during this period with a secondary trough/cold front pushing south across our area. Cold advection will overspread the area from north to south with 850 mb temperatures falling to +6 to +8 degrees C during this period. H5 temperatures falling to around -16 degrees C combined with modest surface heating will likely contribute to the development of spotty showers Tuesday and Tuesday Evening across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Look for partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies for Tuesday and partly-mostly cloudy skies Tuesday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 40s and 50s. Look for north or west winds at 10-20 mph during this period with gusts up to 25 mph on Tuesday.

(Extended Forecast)

An active and unsettled weather pattern looks to continue at times from mid-week into this coming weekend. The overall pattern looks more like autumn with frequent disturbances and cold frontal boundaries affecting our weather. For Wednesday...We could see a few showers pop up mainly across Northern Minnesota as cold air aloft remains overhead associated with the first upper level system currently to our north. By Wednesday Night and Thursday a new disturbance looks to approach the area from the west... There are differences with the timing of this system as well as the northern extent of the rain shield that looks to accompany this feature. The 12z GFS from Today and for the last day or so has been the farthest north of all the models with rain moving north into Duluth-Superior by late Wednesday Afternoon and lasting through most of Thursday... The 12z NAM from Today is slower than the 12z GFS and has rain lifting into Duluth-Superior later Wednesday Night... The last few runs per NAVY and GEM-GLOBAL models keep things dry until Thursday... Stay tuned... Another batch of very chilly air aloft looks to slip south into our area on Thursday behind this next disturbance and that coupled with any minor amount of surface heating could get some instability type showers going across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Thursday and Thursday Evening... The next low pressure system with it's cold front and potent upper level trough looks to affect our weather beginning later in the day Friday and at least through Saturday...possibly even into Sunday. This late week/weekend system should bring more scattered showers/thunderstorms to the area. High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 60s to lower 70s with lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night in the 40s and 50s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... A few showers or thunderstorms possible This Evening. Variable cloudiness. Low 52 to 57. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. Showers possible. High 70 to 75. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday Night... Becoming partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Partly sunny. High 68 to 73.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Thursday... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 68 to 73. Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 48 to 53.

.Friday... Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 77 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 56 degrees

Tim

7/27/09: Severe Thunderstorm Potential

Issued at 8:44 AM CDT, Monday, July 27th, 2009

...Isolated Severe Thunderstorms possible Today and This Evening...

Main risks from these storms:

Large hail and damaging winds along with heavy downpours and dangerous lightning strikes.

Discussion:

A northwesterly flow aloft coupled with a few disturbances dropping southeast through our area along with a surface cold front which will drop southeast through Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today and This Evening will result in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across all of our local area Today and This Evening...

Winds aloft will be quite strong Today with around 40 knots of northwest flow at 500 mb...This in conjunction with favorable amounts of vertical wind shear along with some surface heating and colder air aloft will make the atmosphere somewhat unstable Today with CAPES expected to climb toward 1000 j/kg and LI'S from -1 to -3 degrees C.

Counties affected include:

Koochiching MN...Itasca MN...Cass MN...Crow Wing MN...Aitkin MN...Pine MN...Carlton MN...St. Louis MN...Lake MN...Cook MN...Douglas WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Iron WI...Burnett WI...Washburn WI...Sawyer WI...and Price WI...

The greatest risk for isolated severe thunderstorms appears to be setting up over Eastcentral Minnesota into Northwestern Wisconsin Today and This Evening...or from Pine County Minnesota east through Burnett...Washburn...Sawyer...and Price Counties in Northwestern Wisconsin.

Refer to the short term products issued by USA Weather, Duluth, MN for additional updates throughout the day.

http://www.usaweather.org/local/dlh/

Tim

Sunday, July 26, 2009

7/26/09: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:16 PM CDT, Sunday, July 26th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 1991... A record low temperature of 40 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Partly-mostly sunny skies were found across our area Today with a few showers passing southeast through Northeastern Minnesota and Northwestern Wisconsin thanks to some weak instability and colder temperatures aloft. The shower coverage Today was much less compared to Saturday...however. Highs Today were generally in the 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints mainly in the 50s to around 60 degrees with Afternoon PWS generally around 1.00". 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM were right around +13 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the north or west under 20 mph. Surface map late This Afternoon featured an area of low pressure of 1004 mb centered over Northeast Ontario Province with a 1012 mb low centered over the southeast half of North Dakota.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Never ending northwest flow aloft prevailed once again Today across the Upper Midwest with upper level ridging confined to the Southwestern half of the U.S. while upper level troughing covered the Great Lakes/Eastern Canada region as well as Northwestern Canada.

(Tonight)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with isolated showers ending This Evening across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. A few other showers may linger a while longer out toward the Walker/Brainerd areas Tonight as some energy approaches western portions of our area later Tonight from the Dakotas. Lows Tonight will be in the 50s to lower 60s with west or north winds under 15 mph.

(Monday and Monday Night)

A vigorous upper level disturbance associated with -14 to -16 degree C H5 temperatures will approach Northern Minnesota during this period while additional energy currently over the Northern Plains drops southeast through our area along with a cold frontal boundary. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across our area Monday into Monday Evening with an isolated risk for severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. We should see pockets of higher instability develop with CAPES up to 1000 j/kg along with LI'S from zero to -2 degrees C. W/NW 500 mb flow around 40 knots combined with 0-6 KM Bulk Shear and Effective Bulk Shear of 30-40 knots could promote some more organized storms across parts of our area especially Tomorrow Afternoon and early Tomorrow Evening. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies during this period with highs Tomorrow mainly in the 60s and 70s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 40s and 50s. Winds will be out of the west or north at 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

Cold advection with +4 to +8 degree C H85 temperatures will affect our area from Tuesday into Wednesday as an upper level low stays put to our north causing a northwesterly flow aloft to continue across our area. Cold temperatures aloft could also support a risk for Afternoon-Evening showers both Tuesday and Wednesday...although shower coverage looks fairly isolated at this point. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 60s but some Northern areas could hold in the 50s depending on how cloudy it stays during the day...Some areas farther south could reach 70 or get into the lower 70s both days. Lows Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s. No change in the weather pattern is anticipated through next weekend with another fairly vigorous upper level low/cold front dropping southeast through the area sometime later this week or early next weekend bringing with it a chance for showers or thunderstorms.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Spotty brief showers possible This Evening. Otherwise variable cloudiness. Low 55 to 60. Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday... Scattered showers or thunderstorms developing. Partly sunny. High 71 to 76. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Monday Night... Scattered showers or thunderstorms early. Otherwise Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 52 to 57. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. Showers possible. High 68 to 73. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Wednesday... Partly sunny. High 68 to 73.

.Wednesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Thursday... Showers possible. Partly sunny. High 68 to 73. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 77 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 56 degrees

Tim

Friday, July 24, 2009

7/24/09: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 8:14 PM CDT, Friday, July 24th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 2004...A record low temperature of 41 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Local storm reports from Thursday, July 23rd, 2009...Data provided by the NWS Duluth, MN.

5 miles Southwest of Inger MN (Itasca County) 0.88" diameter hail at 1015 PM CDT. Hail fell on the northside side of Lake Winnibigoshish.

West Duluth rainfall total from late last night: 0.25"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Another batch of rain with scattered thunderstorms affected much of Northcentral...Northeast...and Eastcentral Minnesota as well as Northwest Wisconsin late last night through early This Morning as a cold front moved through the area. The heaviest rainfall amounts per Duluth doppler radar fell in a few areas...One spot was near the Inger...Deer River...and Grand Rapids area where as much as 1.75" of rain fell late last night... A second area of heavier rain totals was found over Southern Aitkin...Northern and Southern Pine...Southwest Douglas...and Burnett Counties in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with rain totals of 1.75"-2.75"... Skies across our area were partly to mostly cloudy Today as the cold front has shifted southeast out of our local area as of early This Evening... The cold H5 low has now shifted far enough south into Northern Minnesota behind the surface cold front to cause some showers and isolated thunderstorms to redevelop late This Afternoon with most of these showers lasting no more than 5-10 minutes in any given location. Highs Today were in the 60s in far Northern Minnesota with 70s and some lower 80s common for the rest of us. 850 mb temperatures as of 7 PM ranged from +11 to +15 degrees C. Winds across the area were out of the southwest, west, or northwest at 10 to 25 mph.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

The Upper Midwest is locked into a northwesterly flow aloft at least through next week... H5 lows were centered over Southern Ontario Province and over the Pacific Northwest per 00z RUC model analysis/water vapor satellite imagery. A broad upper level trough covered the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes/into the Eastern U.S. with an upper level ridge covering the Western U.S. into the Southern Plains.

(Tonight)

Surface area of low pressure along with an upper level low will be centered to our northeast...Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies Tonight with widely scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm coming to an end toward Midnight. Lows will be mainly in the 50s with northwest winds at 10-20 mph.

(Saturday and Saturday Night)

Upper level low will be centered to our northeast during this period with cold minus teens below C H5 temperatures overhead...Expect partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies Tomorrow with partly-mostly cloudy skies Tomorrow Night. Should see spotty showers/thunderstorms develop across the area Tomorrow into Tomorrow Evening...Severe weather is not expected however due to limited amounts of instability. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Tomorrow Night mainly in the 50s. Look for west or northwest winds at 10-20 mph during this period.

(Extended Forecast)

Sunday should be mainly dry...although an isolated shower or thunderstorm could develop during the Afternoon hours as some lingering cold air aloft remains in place. Highs Sunday will be in the 70s to lower 80s. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 50s to lower 60s with a few showers or thunderstorms possible mainly across Northern Minnesota. Next cold frontal passage is forecast to take place on Monday with a risk for showers/thunderstorms across the area as this front moves through. Will have to keep an eye on the timing of this boundary as we should have rather strong winds aloft in place and enough vertical wind shear in the atmosphere to produce at least an isolated severe weather risk Monday Afternoon or Evening...If the front moves through Monday Morning...then any risk for severe weather would be more to our south-southeast. Highs Monday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Monday Night in the 40s and 50s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Spotty showers before Midnight... Variable cloudiness... Low 52 to 57. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday... Variable cloudiness. Showers possible...Maybe a thunderstorm during the Afternoon. High 68 to 73. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Early Evening showers possible. Low 50 to 55. Wind northwest to west at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday... Partly sunny. High 75 to 80.

.Sunday Night... Showers possible late. Mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. High 68 to 73. Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday Night... Evening showers possible. Otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. High 68 to 73.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 77 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 56 degrees

Tim

Thursday, July 23, 2009

7/23/09: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:05 PM CDT, Thursday, July 23rd, 2009

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies were found across our area Today with high temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s but cooler 50s and 60s were common closer to Lake Superior where widespread dense fog was found over Lake Superior extending southwest toward the Duluth Harbor at times. 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +12 to +16 degrees C. Dewpoints across the area were generally in the 50s with late Afternoon PWS of 0.80"-1.10"... It's been mainly dry across our area Today but an area of showers has been dropping south-east through Northern areas of Minnesota This Afternoon. Surface map as of 4 PM featured an area of low pressure of 1006 mb over Central Manitoba Province with a cold front attached to that low heading east out of Central North Dakota.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Northwest H5 flow prevailed across the Upper Midwest This Afternoon with an upper level trough covering the Great Lakes and most of the Central Plains with another upper level trough heading south-east through Saskatchewan and Manitoba Provinces. H5 ridging covered most of the Western U.S. Today.

(Tonight)

Low pressure will be centered to our northwest while a cold front drops south-east through Northern Minnesota during the night. Warm advection and a 30-40 knot southwesterly low level jet will develop Tonight out ahead of this boundary across Northeastern Minnesota. Scattered showers or thunderstorms could develop through the night across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as this system moves in. CAPES will generally be under 1000 j/kg with LI'S of zero to -3 degrees C. Winds aloft will be stronger compared to the last few days however with NW 500 mb winds around 30-40 knots. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR and EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR will generally be in the 30-40 knot range as well. A few of the storms Tonight could become severe with a large hail and damaging wind threat...mainly over Koochiching...Itasca...Cass...and Crow Wing Counties in Northcentral and Eastcentral Minnesota. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies Tonight with areas of fog possible as well. Lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s with south, east, or west winds at 5-15 mph.

(Friday and Friday Night)

Low pressure will be centered to our north-northeast during this period while a cold front shifts southeast through Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin through early Friday Afternoon. Scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible on Friday across Northwest Wisconsin and during the Morning hours in Eastcentral Minnesota. An isolated severe thunderstorm risk does exist on Friday mainly in Northwest Wisconsin with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats...Right now though it appears that the better overall severe weather threat will be more into Central-Southern Wisconsin and Southeastern Minnesota. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies across the area during this period with highs Tomorrow in the 70s and 80s with some 60s around Ely and International Falls. Lows Tomorrow Night will be mainly in the 50s. Look for south, west, or northwest winds at 10-25 mph during this period.

(Extended Forecast)

An upper level low and H5 trough will be located north-east of our area this weekend before retrograding more into Central Canada the early to mid part of next week. Looks like will see at least one if not more surface troughs/cold frontal boundaries shift southeast through our area on occasion later this weekend into early next week. A few showers will be possible across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Saturday with a risk for a few more showers later this weekend through early next week. The better chance for precipitation should come during the Afternoon/Evening hours with this type of pattern. Isolated thunderstorms could also develop as well during the heat of the day. High temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night mainly in the 50s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy with areas of fog. Scattered showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 55 to 60. Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Friday... Showers or thunderstorms possible mainly during the Morning... Partly to mostly sunny. High 74 to 79. Wind southwest...becoming west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday Night... Variable cloudiness. Low 52 to 57. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday... Showers possible. Variable cloudiness. High 67 to 72. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Sunday... Partly sunny. High 72 to 77.

.Sunday Night... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 53 to 58. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 68 to 73. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 77 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 55 degrees

Tim

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

7/22/09: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 8:06 PM CDT, Wednesday, July 22nd, 2009

West Duluth Rain totals:

0.30" of rain fell with a thunderstorm in West Duluth around 2 PM Today...

0.20" of rain fell with another storm around 6 PM Today...

0.50" of rain fell in West Duluth Today...

Note: We've had 4.30" of rain here in West Duluth over the last 8 days.

Weather History:

On this date in 1985... A record low temperature of 40 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Here are the local storm reports from Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin over the last two days. Data provided by the National Weather Service, Duluth, MN.

5 miles East of Grantsburg WI (Burnett County) 0.50" diameter hail at 650 PM CDT Tuesday.

4 miles West of Cotton MN (St. Louis County) 0.75" diameter hail at 415 PM CDT Wednesday.

15 miles East-Northeast of Siren WI (Burnett County) 0.50" at 400 PM CDT Wednesday...Also estimated wind gusts to 50 mph in Rusk Township along County Road H just South of Yellow River.

7 miles East of Hayward WI (Sawyer County) 0.50" diameter hail at 517 PM CDT.

6 miles East of Walker MN (Cass County) 0.50" diameter hail at 540 PM CDT.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

A weak frontal boundary at the surface combined with colder air aloft (-16 degree C H5 temps) led to the development of more scattered showers and thunderstorms across our area Today. None of the storms were severe...however they did put down some very heavy rainfall along with hail generally one quarter to one half inch in diameter...wind gusts up to 40 mph...and some dangerous lightning were also common with these storms Today. Partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies were found across the area with high temperatures generally in the 60s and 70s. 7 PM 850 mb temperatures ranged from +13 to +15 degrees C. Winds across our area were variable in direction generally under 15 mph.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Cold H5 trough continued to affect the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest's weather Today with a persistent northwesterly flow aloft in place.

(Tonight)

Scattered showers and thunderstorms should wane in coverage and intensity through Midnight with the Overnight hours mainly dry across the area. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies Tonight with areas of fog developing. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s with variable winds under 15 mph.

(Thursday and Thursday Night)

A virgorous shortwave currently over Northern Alberta/Northern Saskatchewan Province early This Evening will be shifting south-east toward the Upper Midwest by late Thursday Night. An area of low pressure at the surface will also approach the area from the northwest by Thursday Night along with a cold front which will push southeast into our area. Warm advection will be in full swing across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin especially by Thursday Night as the low/cold front approach. Looks like a 30-35 knot southwesterly low level jet will become established by Thursday Night over the area and this combined with some forcing associated with the cold front and disturbance should result in some showers or thunderstorms across our area by Thursday Night. Isolated activity could get going as early as Thursday Afternoon...although the main chances look to hold off until Thursday Night. Stronger northwest winds aloft of 30-40 knots are expected to be in place along with about 30-40 knots of 0-6 KM Bulk Shear and around 30 knots of Effective Bulk Shear from Thursday Afternoon into Thursday Night. Dewpoints are expected to be mainly in the 50s with PWS around 1.00"... We could see an isolated risk for severe thunderstorms develop especially in western-northwestern parts of our area by Thursday Night with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s to around 80 degrees with cooler temperatures closer to Lake Superior. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s to lower 60s. Look for south, west, or east winds during this period around 20 mph or less.

(Extended Forecast)

Still looks like will be locked in a northwest flow aloft into early next week across the Upper Midwest. Low pressure and an upper level trough should be shifting north-east of our area this weekend while a cold front exits Eastern Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin by mid-Afternoon Friday... Risk for a few showers or thunderstorms will be with us on Friday with a shower risk continuing at times over the weekend...especially during the Afternoon and Evening hours...It does appear that will see another cold front drop south-east through our local area sometime late this weekend or the early part of next week. High temperatures Friday and Saturday will be in the 60s and 70s with a few 80s possible in Southern areas on Friday. Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night will be mainly in the 50s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Scattered showers ending by Midnight. Otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with areas of fog developing. Low 50 to 55. Wind variable around 10 mph.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. Afternoon Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 72 to 77. Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 53 to 58. Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly sunny. High 72 to 77. Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday Night... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 52 to 57. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday... Showers possible. Variable cloudiness. High 67 to 72. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Sunday... Partly sunny. High 72 to 77.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 77 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 55 degrees

Tim

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

7/21/09: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:35 PM CDT, Tuesday, July 21st, 2009

Note: 1.40" of rain fell in West Duluth, MN last night and This Morning...Rain started to fall late last Evening and didn't stop until around 10 AM Today...Had some embedded thunderstorms as well between 2-3 AM Today. 3.80" of rain has fallen here in West Duluth over the past week.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

A surface trough continued to push east out of Central Minnesota This Afternoon. The airmass along and ahead of this system was characterized by CAPES around 1000 j/kg along with LI'S of -1 to -4 degrees C and Lapse Rates from 6.0-7.5 c/km. Dewpoints were in the 50s to around 60s degrees with Afternoon PWS of 1.00"-1.20"... The widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms which affected all of Northeast Minnesota and far Northwest Wisconsin last night and This Morning shifted northeast of the area by This Afternoon which caused some clearing to take place which led to more instability in the atmosphere thanks to some warmer temps near the surface and colder -16 degree C H5 temperatures aloft. This caused scattered showers and thunderstorms to redevelop during the Afternoon hours across Northcentral...Northeast...and Eastcentral Minnesota into far Northwest Wisconsin. The storms Today would intensify one minute and then decrease the next...very typical with the type of pattern were currently in. A lack of stronger winds aloft and sufficient amounts of vertical wind shear led to short lived storms Today... Heavy downpours and dangerous lightning strikes have been common with the storms along with some small hail and brief gusty winds. High temperatures Today were in the 60s and 70s with 5 PM 850 mb temperatures of +10 to +12 degrees C. Winds across the area were from the south or west Today around 15 mph.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

H5 low (564 meters) was in place across Central Manitoba Province late Today with an H5 ridge (588-594 meters) in place across the Western-Southwestern parts of the U.S. A northwest flow aloft prevailed Today across the Upper Midwest with a fairly strong upper level trough covering the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.

(Tonight)

Scattered showers and thunderstorms should end before Midnight with partly-mostly cloudy skies continuing through the night. Main threats with these storms will continue to be heavy downpours and dangerous lightning strikes with a lesser threat for small hail and gusty winds. Lows Tonight will settle into the 40s and 50s with the potential for some late night fog...Winds will be out of the south, east, or west under 15 mph.

(Wednesday and Wednesday Night)

Cold upper trough will remain in place with H5 temperatures around -15 degrees C. Meanwhile the weak surface trough over our area This Afternoon will shift to our north-east on Wednesday. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies during this period with a few showers or thunderstorms possible into Wednesday Evening. Highs Tomorrow will be mainly in the 70s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 40s and 50s. Look for west or east winds around 15 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

An area of low pressure along with a cold front will push south-east across our area from Thursday Night into Friday...This system could bring some showers or thunderstorms to our area later this week. By this weekend will see low pressure engulf the Great Lakes region with a more amplified northerly H5 flow becoming established across the Upper Midwest. Will have a continued threat for off an on rain showers across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin this weekend and possibly into early next week. Highs on Thursday and Friday will be mainly in the 70s with some 80s possible in southern areas. Lows Thursday Night and Friday Night will be in the 50s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Scattered showers and thunderstorms ending before Midnight. Otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog possible late. Low 50 to 55. Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Partly sunny. Afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible. High 72 to 77. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Patchy fog possible late. Low 50 to 55. Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly sunny. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 53 to 58. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly sunny. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday Night... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 67 to 72. Chance of rain 30%.

Normal High Temperature Today 77 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 55 degrees

Tim

Monday, July 20, 2009

7/20/09: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:23 PM CDT, Monday, July 20th, 2009

Record Event:

International Falls Minnesota dropped all the way down to 37 degrees for a low temperature on Sunday Morning, July 19th, 2009...This established a new daily record low temperature for the 19th of July. The previous record was 43 degrees set in 1958.

Note: 5 new daily record low temperatures have occurred this month at International Falls, MN.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

A cold front extended from Northwest Minnesota to Eastern South Dakota as of 3 PM with low pressure of 1002 mb centered over Central Manitoba Province. Partly to mostly cloudy skies were found across our area Today with showers and thunderstorms affecting Koochiching...Western Itasca...and Western Cass Counties in Minnesota. Highs Today were generally in the 70s to lower 80s with cooler 50s and 60s closer to Lake Superior. 3 PM 850 mb temperatures ranged from +11 to +15 degrees C across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Dewpoints This Afternoon were in the 40s and 50s with some lower 60s showing up toward International Falls...Walker...and Brainerd. Afternoon PWS ranged from 1.00"-1.40" except in Northwest Wisconsin and far Northeast Minnesota where PWS ranged from 0.70"-0.90"...

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

An upper level trough was working south-east into the Northern Plains This Afternoon with an H5 low (558 meters) located over Central-Northern Manitoba Province. An area of 30-60 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls were found near this system across the Northern Plains and Central Canada Today. H5 ridging (588-594 meters) continued to cover most of the Western-Southwest U.S. Today.

(Tonight)

Cold front will make slow eastward progress through the Western half of Minnesota during the night. A relatively moist and somewhat unstable airmass will be found along and ahead of this boundary which will result in the continued development of showers or thunderstorms across Northeast Minnesota Tonight. Northwestern Wisconsin will see their chances for rain increase during the Overnight hours. Locally heavy rainfall is possible Tonight especially in Northcentral Minnesota. Severe weather threat continues to look rather minimal Tonight with CAPES at or below 1000 j/kg with LI'S of zero to around -3 degrees C. Winds aloft will remain quite weak generally around 20-30 knots with vertical shear staying around 20-30 knots as well...This should help in keeping any thunderstorm below severe limits Tonight. A southwesterly low level jet around 30 knots will remain in tact through Tonight ahead of this cold front which will continue to advect deeper moisture into our area. Dewpoints will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees Tonight with PWS of 1.00"-1.50" with H85 td's of +8 up to +14 degrees C. Expect partly-mostly cloudy skies Tonight with patchy fog possible late. Lows will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees with south or east winds at 10-20 mph.

(Tuesday and Tuesday Night)

Cold front will be washing out as it shifts east into our local area during this period. Still should see enough forcing and convergence near this weakening boundary to cause showers or thunderstorms at times through Tuesday Night. If we can get some clearing to develop during the Afternoon hours then we could see an isolated risk for stronger thunderstorms across Northeast and Eastcentral Minnesota Tuesday Afternoon...Right now though this threat seems pretty low. Look for partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday with partly-mostly cloudy skies Tuesday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Tomorrow Night mainly in the 50s. Look for south or west winds at 10-20 mph during this period.

(Extended Forecast)

Our area will remain in a northwesterly flow aloft through this weekend as an upper level low shifts slowly toward the south-east through Central Canada. Looks like will also see another cold front drop south-east through our area sometime later this week while what is left of Tuesday's boundary exits to our east by mid-week. Still could see a shower or thunderstorm in spots on Wednesday with dry weather expected for Wednesday Night and Thursday...A few showers or thunderstorms could then affect our area from Thursday Night into Friday as that next cold front moves through. Plenty of timing differences showing up later this week in regards to the timing of this late week cold front...Looks like we could have stronger winds aloft in place as this late week front moves through and that may help in producing a risk for stronger storms unless the front moves through at an unfavorable time of day to produce such a risk. High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be generally in the 70s to around 80 degrees with lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night in the 50s to lower 60s. Some risk for showers could linger across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin this weekend as the upper level low heads into the Great Lakes.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Becoming mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible mainly late. Low 52 to 57. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

.Tuesday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. High 68 to 73. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

.Tuesday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible during the Evening...Variable cloudiness. Low 52 to 57. Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 73 to 78.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 52 to 57.

.Thursday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly sunny. High 75 to 80. Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 53 to 58. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly sunny. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 77 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 55 degrees

Tim

Sunday, July 19, 2009

7/19/09: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:23 PM CDT, Sunday, July 19th, 2009

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Well temperatures are slowly getting back to normal across our area as high pressure of 1020 mb begins to shift to our south-east This Afternoon. Winds across our area were generally variable in direction Today near this high under 15 mph. Highs were generally in the upper 60s to middle 70s with 4 PM 850 mb temperatures of +9 to +11 degrees C. Dewpoints This Afternoon were in the 40s and 50s with PWS around .70"... We saw more sun Today compared to the last several days with a CU field most numerous away from Lake Superior across Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast Minnesota.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

H5 trough/low (564 meters) continued to linger over the Central-Lower Great Lakes into Eastern Canada This Afternoon with a (594 meter) H5 ridge covering areas from Northern California to Northern Utah to Southeast Colorado to Western Texas. A northwest flow aloft was in place across the Upper Midwest This Afternoon with another strong H5 low associated with 60-90 meter H5 height falls extending from Northern Montana into the Provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan in Canada.

(Tonight)

High pressure will be centered to our southeast-east with a cold front heading into the Dakotas. Clear-partly cloudy skies are on tap for Tonight in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with some areas of fog possible late...similiar to early This Morning. Lows Tonight should be somewhat milder compared to last night although some locations could drop into the 40s maybe even upper 30s once again, however this should be more isolated compared to the widespread 30s and 40s that were found across the local area earlier Today. Expect mainly 50s for most areas later Tonight but again some 40s or even 30s are possible in the traditional cold spots in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Winds will be out of the south or east under 15 mph.

(Monday and Monday Night)

A cold front will head east toward Western Minnesota during this period with a southerly flow occurring out ahead of this boundary. Look for dewpoints to climb into the 50s to around 60 degrees over most of our area with PWS increasing to 1.00"-1.25" by Monday Night. Scattered showers or thunderstorms should break out across our area especially by Monday Night as this cold front approaches. Severe weather isn't expected at this time with minimal shear in place and generally weak winds aloft...CAPES at best look to peak around 500-1000 j/kg with LI'S hovering in the zero to -3 degree C range. Thunderstorms that do develop would be more of a heavy rain and lightning producer versus a hail/wind threat the way it looks now. Highs Monday will be in the 70s to lower 80s with lows Monday Night in the 50s to lower 60s. Winds will be out of the south, east, or southwest during this period at 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

The theme from Tuesday through next weekend will be for an upper level low to drift slowly toward the east-southeast across Central Canada. This will keep our area locked in a persistent northwesterly flow aloft through the next several days. On Tuesday look for a weakening cold front to push east into our local area...What's left of this boundary combined with colder temperatures aloft and any sun that breaks out could result in the development of scattered showers or thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Evening. Severe weather chances look minimal right now for Tuesday and Tuesday Evening due to the fact that winds aloft will be rather weak...although an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out Tuesday Afternoon or Tuesday Evening especially if we can get enough sunshine to build up the instability... The period from Wednesday into Friday could feature some additional shower/thunderstorm chances across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin...due to our area being in close proximity of the H5 low to our north and any possible disturbances or surface boundaries that drop south-east through our area. High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be mainly in the 70s to lower 80s with lows Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night in the 50s to around 60 degrees.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 47 to 52. Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Monday... Partly sunny. High 73 to 78. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Tuesday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly sunny. High 73 to 78. Chance of rain 50%.

.Tuesday Night... Evening showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. Low 55 to 60. Chance of rain 40%.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 75 to 80.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 53 to 58.

.Thursday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly sunny. High 73 to 78. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 77 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 55 degrees

Tim

Saturday, July 18, 2009

7/18/09: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:35 PM CDT, Saturday, July 18th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 1984... A record low temperature of 43 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Low pressure of 1004 mb was centered over Central Quebec Province Canada as of mid-Afternoon with a high pressure ridge of 1022 mb drifting east out of the Central Dakotas. Mostly cloudy skies were found across our area once again Today with just a few breaks for sun occurring from time to time. Highs due to the widespread cloudiness were stuck in the 60s Today with some lingering 50s in the Arrowhead of Minnesota. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +6 to +7 degrees C. Winds across the area were out of the north or northwest Today around 15 mph or less.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

A very amplified H5 flow continues across the U.S. Today...A 564 meter H5 low covered Eastern Canada with a north-northwest upper level flow in place behind this feature across the Upper Midwest This Afternoon...Meanwhile to our west a significant upper level ridge was in place with a 594 meter H5 ridge extending from Northern California to Central Idaho to Central Wyoming to Central Colorado to Western Texas.

(Tonight)

High pressure ridge remains to our west with an H5 low/trough well to our east. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecast with lows in the 40s to lower 50s but some 30s are possible if skies can clear out enough later Tonight. Look for north or northwest winds at 5-15 mph.

(Sunday and Sunday Night)

High pressure ridge will pass through our area during this period with warm advection finally pushing east into the area especially by Sunday Night. We should finally see more sun Tomorrow compared to the last several days, but some clouds will likely appear at times...Highs Sunday will be mainly in the 70s with lows Sunday Night in the 40s and 50s. Look for north or west winds Tomorrow around 15 mph or less with variable to southerly winds Tomorrow Night at 5-15 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

High pressure will push east of the area early next week with a cold front pushing east out of the Northern Plains. This boundary looks to slow down some as it pushes into our area from Monday Night into mid-week. Looks like will see dewpoints increase into the 50s to around 60 degrees with PWS climbing to around 1.00"-1.25" along and ahead of this boundary early next week. Showers or thunderstorms are possible across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Monday Night through Tuesday Night as this boundary moves through. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be mainly in the 70s with some 80s possible as well depending on how much sun we see both days. Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s... Looking further ahead we see some model differences creep up with the GFS showing another upper level low developing across the Upper Midwest resulting in cool temperatures and a threat for some showers from mid-week into next weekend... EURO model and the NAVY model show the upper low more to our north which would result in milder or near normal temperatures for the Upper Midwest from mid to late week. GFS has had a good track record with these upper lows over the last several weeks so it could be the model to lean towards. Time will tell.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Considerable cloudiness with clearing developing during the night. Low 45 to 50. Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 72 to 77. Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 50 to 55. Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Monday... Partly sunny. High 75 to 80.

.Monday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible late. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly sunny. High 73 to 78. Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible during the Evening. Variable cloudiness. Low 55 to 60. Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75.

Normal High Temperature Today 77 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 55 degrees

Tim

Friday, July 17, 2009

7/17/09: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 2:42 PM CDT, Friday, July 17th, 2009

Further information on the tornadoes that occurred late Tuesday Afternoon over Westcentral Minnesota...Data provided by the NWS in Chanhassen, MN...

*The first tornado touched down in the Swift Falls area of Minnesota and was rated an EF-2 with estimated winds of 110-119 mph. It had a 9 mile path length and a maximum width of 350 yards. The tornado touched down at 421 PM CDT and lifted at 437 PM CDT. Average movement was 34 mph.

*The second tornado touched down in the Spicer area of Minnesota and was rated an EF-1 with estimated winds of 100-109 mph. It had a 6 and one half mile path length and a maximum width of 250 yards. It touched down at 441 PM CDT and lifted at 453 PM CDT. Average movement was 33 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Low pressure of 1004 mb has moved into Eastern Canada This Afternoon with a 1024 mb high pressure ridge centered over the Western Dakotas. Northerly flow of unseasonably chilly air continued to funnel south into Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today between the low to our east and high pressure out to our west. High temperatures Today were in the 50s to low 60s with 2 PM 850 mb temperatures ranging +5 to +7 degrees C. Winds were out of the northwest or north Today at 10-25 mph. Skies for the most part have stayed on the cloudy side once again Today with areas of drizzle and light rain showers passing through parts of the area on occasion.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

558 meter H5 low was located over Eastern Ontario Province as of midday per RUC model analysis while an intense 6000 meter upper level high pressure system was located over Southern Utah This Afternoon. Hot air dome has definately made a shift into the Western U.S. over the last day or so compared to where it has been over the last couple weeks. A very amplified N-NW flow aloft was in place across the Upper Midwest Today.

(Tonight)

Expect skies to remain mostly cloudy although some partial clearing could start to develop at times... Areas of drizzle and light rain showers will persist This Evening over parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Tonight will be in the 40s to low 50s with winds out of the northwest or north around 20 mph or less. High pressure ridge will remain off to our west with low pressure situated to our east.

(Saturday and Saturday Night)

Looks like we could see one last shot of cold air advection drop south into our area later Tonight into Tomorrow Morning with H85 temps lowering to around +2 to +4 degrees C. This means that high temperatures on Saturday could be somewhat cooler than what was forecasted yesterday. Highs Tomorrow will be dependent on how much clearing can work east and how fast the cold advection moves out. Right now it appears that high temperatures will only reach the 50s and 60s once again...but some lower 70s are possible toward Walker...Brainerd...and Northome. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s and low 50s but some 30s are expected over Northwest Wisconsin. Expect partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies Tomorrow with partly-mostly cloudy skies Tomorrow Night. Winds will continue to be out of the north or northwest around 20 mph or less during this period. Look for high pressure to move farther east toward our area during this period.

(Extended Forecast)

Sunday and Sunday Night will feature high temperatures cracking the 70 degree mark across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for the first time in several days. Look for partly cloudy-mostly sunny skies as well on Sunday with widespread 70s expected for daytime highs. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 40s and 50s. High pressure will dominate our weather on Sunday before it starts to shift east out of our area by Sunday Night. By early next week look for a southerly flow to return to our neck of the woods as a cold front approaches the area from the Dakotas. Should see some moisture and instability make a return north to meet up with this front...result from that should be the formation of some showers or thunderstorms beginning Monday Night and lasting into Tuesday Evening across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. High temperatures on Monday should be in the 70s to lower 80s with lows Monday Night in the 50s and lower 60s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Considerable cloudiness. Areas of drizzle or light rain showers possible mainly This Evening. Low 46 to 51. Wind northwest to north at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. High 62 to 67. Wind northwest to north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night... Clearing. Low 45 to 50. Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Mostly sunny. High 73 to 78.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Monday... Partly sunny. High 75 to 80.

.Monday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly sunny. High 73 to 78. Chance of rain 30%.

Normal High Temperature Today 77 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 55 degrees

Tim

Thursday, July 16, 2009

7/16/09: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:29 PM CDT, Thursday, July 16th, 2009

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Unseasonably cold day across our area as strong low pressure of 1002 mb moves into Central Ontario Province with a 1022 mb high pressure ridge centered over the Western High Plains. Cold advection and gusty northwesterly winds along with widespread cloudiness affected our area Today on the southwest side of this storm. Highs Today were only in the 50s and 60s with 3 PM 850 mb temperatures of just +3 to +6 degrees C across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Winds Today were out of the west or northwest at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. There's been some areas of drizzle and light rain pushing south-southeast through Northern-Northeast Minnesota Today while dry conditions prevailed elsewhere.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

30-60 meter H5 height falls continued to affect the Great Lakes region Today per RUC model analysis as an unusually strong upper level low (558 meters) twirls around from Northern Lake Superior into Central Ontario Province. An amplified N-NW H5 flow was found across the Upper Midwest Today while a 594 meter high pressure ridge associated with a major heat wave shifts west out of the Southern Plains into the Western U.S. The whole upper level pattern has transitioned back to a familiar pattern that has plagued the Upper Midwest more days than not since last Winter.

(Tonight)

Mostly cloudy skies with breezy and drizzly conditions will be found over most of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as another shot of cold advection shifts south into our area as low pressure continues to churn to our northeast. Lows will be in the 40s to low 50s with northwest winds at 10-20 mph with higher gusts This Evening.

(Friday and Friday Night)

High pressure will remain to our west with low pressure off to our northeast-east. Cold advection will linger across our area especially on Friday. Look for considerably cloudy skies Tomorrow with partly-mostly cloudy skies Tomorrow Night. Areas of drizzle and light rain will continue Tomorrow with dry conditions Tomorrow Night. Highs Friday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 40s and 50s. Look for northwest or north winds at 10-25 mph on Friday and around 20 mph or less Friday Night.

(Extended Forecast)

High pressure moves through the area this weekend with temperatures getting closer to seasonal averages but nothing much warmer than that is expected...Highs Saturday will be in the 60s and 70s with mainly 70s to around 80 degrees expected for daytime highs come Sunday. Lows Saturday Night will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Sunday Night mainly in the 50s. Next shot for showers or thunderstorms will move in the early part of next week as a cold front moves across the area. Most of next week could actually hold some threat for off an on showers as a new upper level low looks to develop to our northwest-north around the middle or end of next week. This feature combined with some possible disturbances heading southeast on a NW flow aloft could contribute to these shower chances. Temperatures next week look to remain below average although right now they don't look to be as extreme as what were currently dealing with...but stay tuned as things could change in the coming days.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Breezy. Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle or light rain possible. Low 46 to 51. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle or light rain possible. High 56 to 61. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 45 to 50. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. High 68 to 73.

.Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 47 to 52.

.Sunday... Mostly sunny. High 75 to 80.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Monday... Partly sunny. High 75 to 80.

Normal High Temperature Today 77 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 55 degrees

Tim

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

7/15/09: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:21 PM CDT, Wednesday, July 15th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 2006... A record high temperature of 96 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Note: 2.40" of rain fell in West Duluth on Tuesday, July 14th, 2009.

Here are the local storm reports from Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Wednesday, July 14th, 2009. Data provided by the National Weather Service, Duluth, MN.

425 PM CDT Tuesday: 0.75" diameter hail 5 miles North of Pillager MN (Cass County) Some small brances down as well.

435 PM CDT Tuesday: 1.75" diameter hail 3 miles East of Pillager MN (Cass County)

435 PM CDT Tuesday: 0.88" diameter hail at North Gull Lake MN (Cass County)

440 PM CDT Tuesday: 0.88" diameter hail at Brainerd MN (Crow Wing County)

456 PM CDT Tuesday: 60 mph Thunderstorm Wind Gust at Brainerd MN (Crow Wing County) Measured at the Brainerd Airport.

515 PM CDT Tuesday: Heavy rain. 5.00" of rain 1 mile East of Merrifield MN (Crow Wing County)

515 PM CDT Tuesday: 1.75" diameter hail 1 mile East of Merrifield MN (Crow Wing County)

535 PM CDT Tuesday: Heavy rain. 2.75" of rain in a 2 hour time period 5 miles Southwest of Grand Rapids MN (Itasca County)

543 PM CDT Tuesday: Heavy rain. 3.25" of rain in a 2.5 hour time period 2 miles North of Motley MN (Crow Wing County)

545 PM CDT Tuesday: Heavy rain. 4.00" of rain in a 2 hour time period at Nisswa MN (Crow Wing County)

615 PM CDT Tuesday: 0.75" diameter hail at Brainerd MN (Crow Wing County) Heavy rain fell prior to the hail which caused street flooding.

715 PM CDT Tuesday: Flash Flood at Aitkin MN (Aitkin County) Streets inundated with standing water. Low lying areas filling with water and one city block affected by water in or approaching buildings.

715 PM CDT Tuesday: Heavy rain. 6.00" of rain in a 3 hour time period 5 miles Northeast of Deerwood MN (Crow Wing County)

815 PM CDT Tuesday: Flash Flood at Aitkin MN (Aitkin County) Railroad track washed out by the Ripple River at Aitkin MN.

903 PM CDT Tuesday: Heavy rain. 6.30" of rain 5 miles North of Pillager MN (Cass County)

910 PM CDT Tuesday: 53 mph Thunderstorm Wind Gust at Port Wing WI (Bayfield County)

948 PM CDT Tuesday: Thunderstorm wind damage 4 miles Southwest of Danbury WI (Burnett County) Several large trees down.

In addition to the severe weather and heavy rain/flooding that affected parts of our area Tuesday Afternoon and Evening there was additional severe weather that produced up to 4 tornadoes over portions of Westcentral Minnesota late Tuesday Afternoon...Here are the tornado reports from Tuesday.

423 PM CDT Tuesday: Tornado reported 4 miles Southwest of Gilchrist MN (Pope County)

436 PM CDT Tuesday: Tornado reported 6 miles North-Northeast of Swift Falls MN (Pope County) Tornado was near Scandinavian Lake.

440 PM CDT Tuesday: Tornado reported at Spicer MN (Kandiyohi County)

450 PM CDT Tuesday: Tornado reported 3 miles Northeast of Spicer MN (Kandiyohi County) Tornado tracked across Green Lake.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Low pressure of 998 mb was centered over Western Ontario Province as of mid-Afternoon with a 1018-1020 mb high pressure ridge extending from Southwest Saskatchewan Province southeast to Southern Nebraska. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies were found across our area Today with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s with 4 PM 850 mb temperatures ranging from +7 to +11 degrees C. Winds have been on the gusty side Today with westerly winds of 15-30 mph. It's been dry over most areas Today...but there have been a few light rain showers zipping across Northeast Minnesota from time to time.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Strong 558 meter H5 low extended from Central Manitoba Province east to Western Ontario Province as of late Afternoon with an area of 30-60 meter H5 height falls exiting our local area to the east-northeast This Afternoon. Meanwhile a strong 594 meter high pressure ridge extended from the Southwest U.S. through the Southern Plains east into Western Georgia.

(Tonight)

Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies with a possibility for a few brief sprinkles or light rain showers during the Evening hours mainly across Northeast Minnesota. Strong low pressure to our north with high pressure off to our west will result in a northwest upper level flow and cold advection spilling south into our area during the night. Lows will settle into the 40s and 50s with westerly winds from 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph during the Evening hours.

(Thursday and Thursday Night)

Low pressure will be centered to our north-northeast during this period with high pressure to our west. Cold advection will continue across our area between these two systems. H85 temperatures are expected to fall into the +2 to +8 degree C range during this period which will result in high temperatures on Thursday in the 50s and 60s with lows Thursday Night in the 40s and 50s. Look for partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Thursday with mostly cloudy skies Thursday Night. Could see some areas of light rain or drizzle during this period mainly across Northern areas of Minnesota. Winds during this period will be out of the west or northwest at 10-20 mph with higher gusts.

(Extended Forecast)

Chilly weather will linger into Friday and Friday Night with highs only in the 50s and 60s with lows in the 40s and 50s. It's even possible that a few locales in far Northeast Minnesota could struggle to reach the 50 degree mark on Friday. Expect quite a bit of cloud-cover to remain over the area on Friday as moisture and cold air continue to drop south into our area on the backside of an area of low pressure which will be centered to our east-northeast later this week. A lingering chance for some drizzle or light rain showers will also persist on Friday across Northeastern Minnesota. This weekend will see high pressure moving into the Upper Midwest with low pressure moving into the Eastern Great Lakes/Eastern Canada area. North-northwest upper level flow will persist into this weekend across the Upper Midwest which will result in near to below normal temperatures and dry conditions.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 48 to 53. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph This Evening.

.Thursday... Considerable cloudiness. High 61 to 66. Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Light rain or drizzle possible at times. Low 45 to 50. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. Light rain or drizzle possible at times. High 60 to 65. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. High 68 to 73.

.Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 47 to 52.

.Sunday... Mostly sunny. High 75 to 80.

Normal High Temperature Today 76 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 55 degrees

Tim

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

7/14/09: Storm chase trip/no weather blog Tonight

First off...no weather blog Tonight...

Had a very successful chase trip Tonight considering how down the storm season has been thus far around this area.

...Shawn (my older brother)...Sam (my brother's soon to be wife)...and myself decided to head south a bit since some nice looking storms had been brewing over in Crow Wing and Aitkin Counties during the Afternoon hours.

Left West Duluth around 5:30 PM with our first destination being Moose Lake Minnesota...Lots of fog and low clouds as we left Duluth down thru the Esko area with the fog burning off right around Midway Road on I35...But still plenty of low level clouds in the sky, which wasn't too surprising since the atmosphere under went a huge change during the past 24 hours.

We reached Moose Lake with severe warned cells to our west and a little west-northwest around 6:30 PM or so...Other severe storms were centered south of the Lake Mille Lacs area...So it was decision time. After about 20 mins. or so of waiting in Moose Lake we finally made the decision to drop south to Hinckley Minnesota and boy it sure paid off!

A severe thunderstorm warning was issued for Kanabec County MN around 8 PM (or west of Hinckley) the cell itself looked pretty organized considering CAPES were generally in the 500-1000 j/kg range. Plenty of moisture was in place however and shear was incredible as well and the whole storm system driving this severe thunderstorm threat was very strong for mid July and included a potent 40-50 knot 850 mb jet!

After finding a better spot to view the storm in Hinckley...which we did find by the way...a very nice open field, only downside was that there was an aluminum bleacher area and a fence near-by...not the best places to be when lightning is approaching, but we did it anyways. The storm moved thru Hinckley around 9PM with incredible rain and lightning along with gusty winds...Didn't see any hail however...

Sam was excited to see her first decent storm while out chasing Tonight...since last Thursday didn't go as planned...but that's how it is with chasing, some days look great but nothing happens...other days don't look as promising, yet they seem to produce some good storms. Strange how the atmosphere works.

Was treated to an amazing lightning show as we left Hinckley and tracked north on I35 back to Duluth...All the lightning was now off to our northeast-east, some pretty amazing cloud-cloud bolts! Also saw a very cool mammatus or mamma cloud display just north of Hinckley on our way back to Duluth.

All in all a very interesting day in the weather world around this area...We got some MUCH needed rains and to cap it all off...some very nice thunderstorms...and a successful chase doesn't hurt matters either.

2009 storm chases so far: 2

Take care

Tim

Monday, July 13, 2009

7/13/09: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 2:42 PM CDT, Monday, July 13th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 1990... A record low temperature of 39 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather highlights:

...Record cold up north...

...Drought conditions may worsen during the next 6-10 days...

Weather Notes:

International Falls Minnesota broke a record low temperature on Sunday, July 12th, 2009. Low temperature reached 35 degrees on the 12th which broke the previous record low temperature of 40 degrees which was set in 1975.

July 2009 has only had a barely measurable 0.01" of rain at the Duluth Airport...The driest July on record at the Duluth Airport occurred just a few years ago in 2005 when 0.82" of rain fell during the entire month. The all time driest July on record occurred in 1875 with just 0.45" of rain at Duluth.

The last time the Duluth Airport measured one quarter inch or more of rain was back on June 18th when .31" of precipitation fell... The last time the Duluth Airport measured one half inch or more of rain was back on June 8th when .80" of precipitation fell.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconisin

(Today's Weather)

High pressure of 1020 mb was sitting right over Northern Minnesota This Afternoon resulting in another day with bone dry humidity and pleasant temperatures. Highs Today were generally in the 70s with 2 PM 850 mb temperatures sitting right around +11 degrees C. Dewpoints were only in the 30s and 40s with midday PWS of just .50"-.60"... Low pressure of 1006-1008 mb was situated over the Northern Rockies This Afternoon with a warm front attached to that low extending from Eastern Montana to Central South Dakota with a cold front moving into Central Montana. Deeper moisture was found near this weather system to our west Today with dewpoints of 55-65 degrees and PWS of 1"-1.60"

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Northwest flow aloft continued over the Upper Midwest Today between a strong 552 meter H5 low and trough which covered Eastern Canada and a 594 meter H5 ridge which covered the Southern Plains and Southern Rockies. A powerful upper level low and upper trough continued to move out of the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies This Afternoon with 60 meter H5 height falls noted per RUC model analysis This Afternoon over Western Montana and Idado. An 80 knot H3 jet max was also noted This Afternoon over Southern Idaho per RUC model analysis with another strong jet max of 90-110 knots stretching from the upper Great Lakes southeast to Central Ohio. Very unusual to see such strong upper level winds this time of year.

(Tonight)

High pressure will continue to retreat off to our east while low pressure remains well to our west. Look for partly cloudy skies to become mostly cloudy at times as we see some cloud debris off thunderstorm activity across the Dakotas move east in our direction at times Tonight. Could even see a few showers later Tonight mainly around the Walker/Brainerd areas as a 30 knot low level jet begins to approach Western parts of the area Overnight. Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with a few spots in southwestern areas holding around 60 degrees. Winds Tonight will be out of the south or east around 20 mph or less.

(Tuesday and Tuesday Night)

Main area of low pressure will track well to the northwest of our local area but a secondary low could develop and head east or east-northeast toward Southern Minnesota and Western Wisconsin late Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night. A warm front will be pushing north-east and will probably get into Eastern Minnesota and most of Northern Wisconsin Tuesday Evening before a cold front surges east out of the Northern Plains. This cold front will be pushing through our local area Tuesday Night.

A 30-45 knots low level jet will persist out ahead of this storm system on Tuesday which will cause dewpoints to rise into the 50s and low 60s while PWS surge to between 1" and 1.30". H85 td's are also expected to increase to +8 to +14 degrees C across our area during this period.

Note: Dewpoints which were in the 30s and 40s over our area Today will climb about 20-30 degrees in a 24 hour period which is pretty remarkable.

Looks like will see some showers across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tuesday and Tuesday Night as this system moves into and through the area. Thunderstorms are possible as well but it continues to look like the better overall severe threat will be to our south near the richest moisture and instability. However...there is a small chance that isolated severe storms could reach southern zones in Minnesota and Wisconsin late Tuesday Afternoon and Tuesday Night...mainly over Pine...Southwest Aitkin...and Crow Wing counties in Minnesota then east to Burnett and Washburn counties in Wisconsin.

Right now the forecast models are showing CAPES of 1000-2000 j/kg across most of our area by Tuesday late Afternoon and Evening...This seems somewhat high with CAPES likely holding around 1000 j/kg or less. Lifted Indicies are forecast to drop to between zero and -4 degrees C across our area.

If we had more moisture and instability in our area then the risk for severe weather would be greater since all the other ingredients needed for severe weather will be in place which include strong shear and fast winds aloft along with a potent upper level trough which will be moving east through the Dakotas on Tuesday.

Will continue to monitor the situation for Tuesday and Tuesday Night...But right now the chances for severe weather this far north are pretty low.

Look for partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Tuesday with variably cloudy skies on tap Tuesday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 50s and 60s.

Winds will be out of the south or east on Tuesday at 10-25 mph with winds Tuesday Night from the south, southwest, or east at 10-25 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

Low pressure will be moving slowly to the east through Central Canada from Wednesday into Thursday. A blast of unseasonably low 850 mb temperatures is forecast to drop south into our area on Thursday behind this low with H85 temperatures of just +2 to +6 degrees C! Wednesday looks rather breezy with westerly winds gusting to 25 mph with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s. Highs Thursday will struggle to reach the 60s for most areas and it's even possible that areas northeast of a line from International Falls to Hibbing to Silver Bay will stay in the 50s...perhaps even 40s for daytime highs! Looks fairly cloudy as well on Thursday with some drizzle or light rain possible in far Northern Minnesota. Lows Thursday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Not much change expected for Friday although temperatures should moderate a bit compared to Thursday, but it will still be below average for mid July. This weekend should be dry with near to below normal temperatures expected.

Note: If we fail to see much rain here in Duluth Tuesday or Tuesday Night...Then it looks like we could go at least another 5-7 days possibly more before another shot for some rain here in the city.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday... Scattered showers possible. Otherwise partly sunny. High 68 to 73 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday Night... Scattered showers possible. Otherwise variable cloudiness. Low 55 to 60. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. Breezy. High 70 to 75. West winds could gust to 30 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 48 to 53.

.Thursday... Considerable cloudiness. High 60 to 65.

.Thursday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 47 to 52.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 67 to 72.

Normal High Temperature Today 76 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 55 degrees

Tim