Saturday, June 27, 2009

6/27/09: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:22 PM CDT, Saturday, June 27th, 2009

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

A strong area of low pressure averaging 996 mb was centered over the Southwest portion of Ontario Province as of 2 PM with a strong cold front extending from Northeast Minnesota through Western Wisconsin. Airmass along and ahead of this front was characterized by widespread low cloudiness Today with dewpoints generally in the 60s with 850 mb td's of +12 to +16 degrees C with PWS of 1.50"-1.70". The clouds have kept temperatures generally in the 60s and 70s This Afternoon which has kept CAPES generally under 500 j/kg. Result from all this has been for a broken line of showers with some heavy downpours and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two along the cold front across Northwest Wisconsin and far Eastern Minnesota This Afternoon. As the cold front passes by...skies become partly-mostly sunny with gusty west winds at 15-30 mph with somewhat drier air advecting in behind the cold frontal boundary.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

A strong upper level trough with 60 meter 12 hour H5 height falls continued to spread through the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest This Afternoon with the dry slot associated with this wound up storm system progressing quite rapidly toward the east-northeast from Westcentral Minnesota.

(Tonight)

Low pressure will deepen to around 991 mb during the night as it remains over Southern Ontario Province. The potent upper level trough over the Dakotas This Afternoon will continue to push south-east into our area Tonight. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue in far Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin before 7 PM Tonight as the cold front attached to this low continues to push north-east through those areas. Meanwhile scattered strong to severe thunderstorms developing over the Dakotas This Afternoon under the cold H5 trough could make a move toward the western-southern parts of our area before Midnight with a threat for a few showers or thunderstorms generally over Cass and Crow Wing counties in Minnesota before this activity dissipates toward the late Evening hours. Otherwise expect partly-mostly cloudy skies Tonight with lows in the 50s to around 60 degrees. Winds will become southwest or west and will increase to 15-30 mph.

(Sunday and Sunday Night)

Strong low pressure at the surface and aloft will be located to our northeast during this period with gusty west winds at 15-35 mph continuing across our area on the back side of this storm. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies during this period with shower chances confined to mainly Northern areas of Minnesota both Sunday and Sunday Night... Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 40s and 50s.

(Extended Forecast)

Looks like our upper level pattern will be going back to a more persistent north or northwest flow aloft across the Upper Midwest through most of next week and possibly beyond this time as upper level ridging heads back into the Western U.S. while to our east we see one if not more cut-off lows take shape over the next week... This type of pattern is generally dry for our area and is not favorable for any sort of severe weather outbreaks with even general thunderstorm activity hard to come by with this type of upper level pattern.

Low pressure will continue to sit and spin over the Great Lakes region through at least Tuesday of next week which will keep our area locked in a cooler northerly flow aloft. The chilliest day appears to be on Monday when high temperatures will only reach the 50s and 60s across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin thanks to extensive cloudiness and H85 temperatures which are forecast to drop to +2 to +6 degrees C across our local area...Pretty unusal to see 850 mb temps that low this time of year. Low temperatures Monday Night will be in the 40s and 50s. Could see some drizzle or areas of showers as well over parts of the area especially on Monday. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 60s and low 70s with some 50s possible in far Northeast Minnesota. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s. Expect partly-mostly cloudy skies for Tuesday and Tuesday Night.

No real big warm ups can be expected across our neck of the woods as long as we see this N-NW H5 flow stay in place... Temperatures for the most part will be at or below normal levels as we move into early July.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Breezy. Variable cloudiness. Low 53 to 58. Wind west to southwest at 15 to 30 mph.

.Sunday... Windy. Variable cloudiness. Showers possible late. High 70 to 75. Wind west at 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night... Breezy. Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 50 to 55. Wind west to northwest at 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 63 to 68. Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 47 to 52.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. High 65 to 70.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 46 to 51.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75.

Normal High Temperature Today 74 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 51 degrees

Tim

Friday, June 26, 2009

6/26/09: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 2:39 PM CDT, Friday, June 26th, 2009

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Sunny to mostly sunny skies were found over our area Today with high temperatures in the 70s and 80s with 2 PM 850 mb temperatures of +13 to +18 degrees C. Dewpoints were generally in the 50s This Afternoon with PWS of just 0.60"-0.80" across our local area. Winds Today were out of the south or east at 10-20 mph which resulted in cooler temperatures with mainly 60s closer to Lake Superior. Weather map at mid-Afternoon features an area of low pressure of 1004 mb over far Western South Dakota with a cold front running from Northwest North Dakota to Northern Wyoming. High pressure of 1014 mb was pulling east away from our area This Afternoon while a warm front was developing from Central South Dakota to Northern Missouri.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

A potent shortwave trough was heading east-southeast through the Pacific Northwest This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery with strong jet stream winds of 110 knots noted across Southern Saskatchewan This Afternoon per RUC H3 model analysis. An H5 ridge remained over the Central and Southern Plains Today although it has shrunk a bit in size compared to 24 hours ago as the system to our west starts to deepen and begins to break down this ridge. A W-NW 500 mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest This Afternoon between the storm to our west and a potent H5 low over Eastern Canada.

(Tonight)

Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph. Showers or thunderstorms are expected to develop later Tonight mainly over western and southern parts of our area as the LLJ increases to 30-45 knots Overnight which will help pull deeper moisture currently to our west and southwest northeast into our area during the night. PWS are expected to soar into the 1.00"-1.75" range by later Tonight over most of our area as low pressure near the Black Hills of South Dakota This Afternoon heads toward the Eastern Dakotas Overnight. Severe weather is not expected Tonight with any thunderstorm that develops due to extremely low amounts of instability...however locally heavy downpours could develop with the increasing amount of moisture in the air.

(Saturday and Saturday Night)

Low pressure will deepen to around 993 mb as it tracks through Western Minnesota Saturday Morning then to Southwestern Ontario Province by Saturday Evening. A cold front attached to this low will surge east and will pass through Northeastern Minnesota between 11 AM-2 PM Saturday and through Northwest Wisconsin between 2 PM-5 PM Saturday.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will likely occur Saturday Morning with some locally heavy downpours possible as a 30-50 knot LLJ continues to pull deeper moisture into our area out ahead of the surface low/cold front.

Some clearing is then expected to take place across Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota Saturday Afternoon and this could result in CAPES rising toward 1000 j/kg thanks to temperatures which would warm through the 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the 60s with PWS of 1.00"-1.75" and H85 td's of +10 to +14 degrees C.

If we can heat out enough and get enough clearing to develop...then we could see a few thunderstorms re-develop Saturday Afternoon across mainly Northwest Wisconsin and perhaps the far Eastern parts of Minnesota. Should a thunderstorm develop it could become severe Saturday Afternoon with 30-40 knots of 0-6 KM Bulk Shear in place. Damaging winds and large hail would be the main threats if severe weather did develop. Right now the counties of Washburn...Sawyer...Price...Iron...and Ashland seem to be the areas where a low severe weather risk does exist Tomorrow Afternoon.

Another area to watch will be over Cass...and Crow Wing counties in Northcentral Minnesota...These areas will be near the strong upper level trough which will blast south-east out of the Dakotas on Saturday. Some instability and at least weak amounts of moisture will likely remain in place and with some Afternoon heating combined with colder temperatures aloft could cause a few thunderstorms to develop over western parts of the area late Saturday Afternoon-Saturday Evening...Gusty winds and small hail would be the main threats out of those storms if they do develop.

Expect partly-mostly cloudy skies during this period with highs Tomorrow in the 60s and 70s with some 80s in southern parts of our area. Lows Tomorrow Night will be mainly in the 50s. Look for south, west, or east winds to become west or southwest at 10-20 mph during this period with wind gusts nearing 30 mph Saturday Afternoon and Saturday Night.

(Extended Forecast)

Strong low pressure and a very strong upper level trough will set up shop near or over the Great Lakes from late this weekend into perhaps the middle of next week. What this means for our local area will be a northerly upper level flow which will cause temperatures to be much cooler compared to what we have seen as of late. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecast on Sunday with showers possible mainly in Northern Minnesota. The threat for showers or some drizzle will then push more to the south and east from Sunday Night into Monday the way it looks now. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Sunday Night in the 40s and 50s. High temperatures Monday will only be in the 50s and 60s with lows Monday Night in the 40s and 50s. Winds will also be quite gusty at times on the backside of this strong storm with northwest and north winds of 15-25 mph with gusts around 30 mph expected from Sunday into Monday.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear This Evening with skies becoming mostly cloudy Overnight. Showers possible after 2 AM. Low 57 to 62 Inland and 50 to 55 closer to Lake Superior. Wind southeast to east at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Saturday... Showers into early Afternoon. Considerable cloudiness with some clearing possible during the Afternoon. High 70 to 75. Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph...becoming southwest to west at 15 to 20 mph during the Afternoon. Chance of rain 60%.

.Saturday Night... Variable cloudiness. Low 52 to 57. Wind west at 15 to 20 mph.

.Sunday... Variable cloudiness. Showers possible late. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 50 to 55. Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 63 to 68. Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 47 to 52.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. High 65 to 70.

Normal High Temperature Today 73 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 51 degrees

Tim

Thursday, June 25, 2009

6/25/09: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:14 PM CDT, Thursday, June 25th, 2009

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

A beautiful early Summer day across our area with plenty of Afternoon sunshine, gentle northwest winds, warm temperatures, and tolerable amounts of humidity. High temperatures Today were in the 70s and 80s with 4 PM 850 mb temperatures of +14 to +17 degrees C. Dewpoints were in the 40s and 50s Today with west or northwest winds at 10-20 mph. Today was mainly dry...however a few showers and thunderstorms erupted early This Morning mainly affecting western and southern parts of our area. Surface weather map late This Afternoon features an area of high pressure of 1012 mb over Southeast Manitoba Province with a cold front centered over the Central parts of Manitoba/Ontario Province.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

A large H5 ridge continued to dominate much of the Central and Southern Plains This Afternoon with this ridge extending west through the Central and Southern Rockies. Active spots in terms of scattered strong to severe convection were noted on the northeast side of this ridge across Eastern Canada and the lower Great Lakes and on the northwest side of this ridge across the Northern Rockies This Afternoon. A strong upper level low had moved into Northwest Canada late Today with 60 meter H5 12 hour height falls associated with that feature across Alberta Province per RUC model analysis.

(Tonight)

High pressure will be in control of our weather although we will see that cold front to our north sag a bit to the south during the night. No precipitation is expected with that front since upper level riding will be found over our area Tonight. Lows will be in the 50s and low 60s with west or north winds under 15 mph.

(Friday and Friday Night)

High pressure will head off to our east during this period while a cold front settles into Northcentral Minnesota before stalling out and lifting back north as a warm front by Friday Night. Low pressure will be situated over the Western High Plains during this period with a southerly flow developing across our area out ahead of this low and on the backside of the area of high pressure. Looks like another very nice day on Friday with partly cloudy-mostly sunny skies with high temperatures in the 70s and 80s with a few spots possibly nearing 90 degrees down toward Brainerd. Dewpoints are expected to hold in the 40s and 50s on Friday although muggier air will eventually return to southwest parts of our area by Friday Night. It does look mainly dry across the area during this period...Although showers or thunderstorms should start to affect Western-Southern parts of the area later Friday Night as a 30-40 knot LLJ advects deeper moisture and weak instability into our area. Lows Friday Night will be in the 50s and 60s with partly-mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be out of the south or east during this period at 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

A fairly strong storm system for early Summer standards will affect our weather this weekend. Strong low pressure is forecast to lift north-east through the Upper Midwest on Saturday with this low then slowing down as it reaches Southern-Central Ontario Province from Saturday Night through late Sunday. A very potent upper level trough will also dig east-southeast into our area this weekend. Looks like we could be setting the stage for a period of windy weather especially from late Saturday into late Sunday as westerly winds increase to 15-30 mph across the area...But with H85 wind speeds of 40-55 knots...The surface winds could end up even stronger than what is expected at this time. Rain chances look greatest on Saturday as the low and it's warm front/cold front track through the area. Still doesn't look to promising for much in the way of severe weather around the area...although Northwest Wisconsin and possibly the far Eastern portions of Minnesota could be dealing with an isolated severe weather risk Saturday Afternoon if enough clearing can occur behind Saturday Morning's glob of rain...although the severe threat will also hinge upon the timing of the cold front which right now appears to be through all of Northeast Minnesota between Noon-2 PM Saturday with the front pushing through Northwest Wisconsin between mid and late Afternoon Saturday. Could see some wrap around showers affect parts of the area later this weekend as the strong upper level trough/surface low move slowly to the east. High temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be in the 60s and 70s with some 80s possible on Saturday in Southern parts of our area. Lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the 40s and 50s. It should be noted that high temperatures on Sunday may struggle to get out of the 50s in the Arrowhead of Minnesota if clouds and rain are more persistent than what is expected right now.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Clear. Low 56 to 61. Wind west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday... Mostly sunny. High 80 to 85 but turning cooler closer to Lake Superior. Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible Overnight. Low 57 to 62. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday... Showers... A thunderstorm also possible. Mostly cloudy. High 67 to 72. Chance of rain 50%.

.Saturday Night... Variable cloudiness. Low 52 to 57.

.Sunday... Variable cloudiness. Showers possible. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 68 to 73.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 73 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 51 degrees

Tim

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

6/24/09: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 2:17 PM CDT, Wednesday, June 24th, 2009

Note: The Duluth Airport was just 5 degrees off from the record high temperature of 92 degrees on Tuesday, June 23rd, 2009. The official high temperature for Tuesday was 87 degrees at the Airport in Duluth, MN.

Here are the storm reports from Eastcentral Minnesota from Tuesday, June 23rd, 2009. Data provided by the National Weather Service, Duluth, Minnesota.

Brainerd MN (Crow Wing County) 0.50" diameter hail at 345 PM CDT. Dime size hail was reported on the north side of town.

Brainerd MN (Crow Wing County) 0.50" diameter hail at 344 PM CDT.

Brainerd MN (Crow Wing County) 0.75" diameter hail in Downtown Brainerd at 344 PM CDT.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Weak area of high pressure of 1014 mb was building into Northern Minnesota from Eastern North Dakota This Afternoon with a cold front turning stationary across Southern Minnesota. Drier air has been pushing into our local area Today behind this cold front while the real muggy air was confined to Southern Minnesota. Dewpoints across our area were in the 40s, 50s, and low 60s This Afternoon with temperatures in the 70s and 80s along with west, southwest, or north winds around 15 mph or less. 850 mb temperatures as of 2 PM ranged from +15 to +17 degrees C. Partly-mostly sunny skies were found across our area Today with some radar echoes passing through Southern Burnett...Washburn...and Sawyer counties in Northwest Wisconsin Today but there's been little if any rain reaching the ground.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Large H5 ridge covered much of the Central and Southern Rockies...Plains...and the Southern parts of the U.S. This Afternoon with the ridge axis extending from Southern California to Central Wyoming to Central Iowa to Southeast Mississippi per RUC model analysis. Fast winds aloft were found north of this ridge from the Pacific Northwest east through the Upper Midwest. Upper level lows were centered just off the Eastern seaboard with a very strong upper level low associated with 150 meter H5 12 hour height falls moving toward Southwestern British Columbia This Afternoon. Of greater concern for our area is the disturbance coming east-southeast out of the Northern Rockies Today although the main impacts out of that feature will likely remain south of our area.

(Tonight)

The aforementioned disturbance moving into the Northern Plains will cause scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly southwest-south of our area Tonight...although some showers may make sneak into the Brainerd/Hinckley/Siren/Hayward/Park Falls area in Minnesota and Wisconsin especially This Evening... Otherwise look for partly-mostly cloudy skies Tonight with lows in the 50s and low 60s but some patchy 40s are possible up North. Winds will be out of the west, north, or southwest around 15 mph or less.

(Thursday and Thursday Night)

High pressure will be in control of our weather although we will see a cold front head south out of Central Canada with this boundary moving into Northern Minnesota later Thursday and Thursday Night. A stray shower or thunderstorm could develop near this boundary in far Northern Minnesota Thursday Afternoon or Thursday Night...otherwise this period looks high and dry across our area with mild temperatures and comfortable humidity levels. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 50s and low 60s with some 40s possible once again in Northern Minnesota. Winds will be out of the southwest, west, or north at 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

High pressure will move off to our east on Friday with a southerly return flow becoming established across the Upper Midwest between the departing high and an area of low pressure which will approach the region from the Northern Rockies/Western High Plains. The cold front which will drop south out of Central Canada is forecast to turn into a warm front across Southern or Central Minnesota on Friday with this boundary lifting north-east Friday Night and Saturday which will then be followed by a fairly potent cold front which should move through our area on Saturday. Showers or thunderstorms are possible as this system moves across the area Friday Night and Saturday. Severe weather chances don't look very good at this point since it appears that this system will be coming through at an unfavorable time of day to support a bigger severe weather risk for our area...although if it slows down some...then Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota could be under the gun for some severe weather Saturday Afternoon or Saturday Evening. This system looks fairly dynamic at this point with fairly strong W-SW H5 winds of 35-50 knots and a pretty decent low level jet of 30-45 knots. Shear also looks pretty good at this point as does the moisture return into this system... Will continue to monitor the evolution of this system for any possible changes over the next 24-36 hours. High temperatures on Friday will be in the 70s and 80s with a few spots nearing 90 degrees toward the Brainerd area. It does look like will see an onshore wind kick back up by Friday so it will turn cooler closer to Lake Superior. Lows Friday Night will be in the 50s and 60s. Highs Saturday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Saturday Night in the 50s to low 60s.

Models diverge greatly from late this weekend into the early part of next week. 12Z GFS from Today has a cut-off low...very chilly temperatures...and off an on rainy spells across our area from Sunday through perhaps the middle of next week as low pressure cuts-off from the main flow of the jet stream allowing it to sit and spin over the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes vicinity from Sunday into the early or mid part of next week. The other long range models aren't as enthused with the GFS solution Today so perhaps the GFS is up to no good.

Note: The 12z GFS from Today does look pretty extreme late this weekend and early next week considering were almost into early July...But the way this past Spring was I guess anything is possible.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Mostly sunny. High 80 to 85. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 57 to 62. Wind west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 80 to 85 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible late. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 60 to 65. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. High 73 to 78. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60.

.Sunday... Variable cloudiness. Showers possible. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 73 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 51 degrees

Tim

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

6/23/09: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:08 PM CDT, Tuesday, June 23rd, 2009

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

A very warm and humid day across our area with a cold front moving east out of Western Minnesota. Highs were in the 70s and 80s Today with a few locales pushing toward 90 degrees. Dewpoints were generally in the 60s with PWS of 0.80"1.60"...Lowest in the eastern areas with richer moisture to our west and northwest. Winds Today were out of the south or east at 10-20 mph which has caused some cooling closer to Lake Superior. Scattered supercells formed for a time between 1-3 PM This Afternoon in Eastcentral Minnesota...Generally in Crow Wing/Aitkin counties...These storms have for the most part diminished in intensity over the last hour...However additional storms are firing off at times across Crow Wing/Cass counties late Today. Storm motions have been toward the east or east-northeast This Afternoon.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Hot H5 ridge was baking the Central-Southern Plains This Afternoon while disturbances continue to ride up and around this ridge triggering scattered strong to severe convection across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest Today. Upper level troughs were in place across the Western U.S. and across the Northeast U.S.

(Tonight)

A cold front will be moving south-east across most of our area during the night. Plenty of instability will be found along and ahead of this boundary Tonight with CAPES of 1000-2500 j/kg during the Evening hours with LI'S of -2 to -8 degrees C. 0-6 KM Bulk Shear and Effective Bulk Shear will range from 30 up to 40 knots with a weak southwesterly LLJ of 20-30 knots and faster H5 winds from the W-SW at 30-45 knots. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the area Tonight...although capping issues and a lack of deeper moisture outside of the west-southwest portions of our area could keep the severe threat pretty isolated. If the mid/upper level moisture can increase ahead of the cold front This Evening...then the risk for severe weather could become somewhat more widespread than what were seeing late This Afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found across our area Tonight with lows in the 50s and 60s with south or east winds turning west and northwest around 15 mph. If storms become severe the main threats will continue to be large hail and damaging winds.

(Wednesday and Wednesday Night)

Cold front will settle south out of our area on Wednesday with high pressure building into our area from the west which will help squash the H5 ridge a bit more to the south compared to where it's been the last day or so. A risk for a few showers or thunderstorms could linger Tomorrow mainly in Northwest Wisconsin and possibly Pine County Minnesota...Otherwise dry weather is anticipated during this period with lowering humidity and very pleasant temperatures. Highs Wednesday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Wednesday Night in the 50s and 60s. Look for west, southwest, or northwest winds at 10-20 mph during this period.

(Extended Forecast)

High pressure will remain in control of our weather Thursday and Thursday Night which will cause clear-partly cloudy skies with mild temperatures and tolerable humidity. Highs Thursday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Thursday Night in the 50s and 60s. High pressure pushes east of our area Friday making way for the next low pressure system and cold front which look to pass through our area sometime Friday Night or Saturday. This system could produce another round of showers and thunderstorms and a possible severe weather threat later this week. High temperatures on Friday will be in the 70s and 80s but some 90s are possible in southern areas. Lows Friday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

It should be noted that the longer range forecast models are beginning to show a possible pattern change which would put our area back in a Northwest flow aloft or basically the same old pattern we've been locked into for the most part since last Winter. This pattern change may take place later this weekend and it could last for a while if it does occur since it seems like once we get into a northwest flow aloft it doesn't really wanna break down for quite some time. That'll be something to keep an eye on during the next few days.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*Severe Thunderstorm Watch* number 500 remains in effect until 8 PM CDT This Evening...

.Tonight... Humid. Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible through about Midnight. A few storms could become severe with large hail and damaging winds. Low 58 to 63. Wind southwest becoming west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Variable winds becoming west at 10 to 15 mph during the night closer to Lake Superior. Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 80 to 85. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 56 to 61. Wind west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Mostly sunny. High 82 to 87.

.Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 60 to 65.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 85 to 90.

.Friday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 60 to 65. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. High 78 to 83. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 73 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 50 degrees

Tim

6/23/09: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Information

Issued at 2:38 PM CDT, Tuesday, June 23rd, 2009

*Severe Thunderstorm Watch* number 500

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma has issued *Severe Thunderstorm Watch* number 500 which is in effect until 8 PM CDT This Evening for Northeast Minnesota including the Arrowhead...Far Northwest Wisconsin...and Lake Superior.

Hail to 2 inches in diameter...Thunderstorm wind gusts to 70 mph...and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.

This watch is along and 60 statue miles east and west of a line extending from 60 miles Southwest of Kennedy Wisconsin to 20 miles North of Ely Minnesota.

Counties in the Duluth area that are in this watch are:

Cook MN...Lake MN...St. Louis MN...Carlton MN...Pine MN...Douglas WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Burnett WI...Washburn WI...and Sawyer WI...

Some cities included in this watch are:

Grand Marais MN...Silver Bay MN...Two Harbors MN...Hibbing MN...Ely MN...Duluth MN...Cloquet MN...Moose Lake MN...Esko MN...Hinckley MN...Pine City MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Siren WI...Grantsburg WI...Danbury WI...Minong WI...Spooner WI...Shell Lake WI...and Hayward WI...

A severe thunderstorm watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms to develop in and close to the watch area...Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for rapidly changing weather conditions and stay tuned for possible warnings.

6/23/09: *Severe Thunderstorm Watch* information

Issued at 11:39 AM CDT, Tuesday, June 23rd, 2009

*Severe Thunderstorm Watch* number 497

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma has issued *Severe Thunderstorm Watch* number 497 which is in effect until 6 PM CDT This Evening for Northern and Central Minnesota...and Eastern North Dakota.

Hail to 2 inches in diameter...Thunderstorm wind gusts to 70 mph...and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.

This watch is along and 75 statue miles east and west of a line extending from 30 miles Southwest of Brainerd Minnesota to 30 miles East-Northeast of Hallock Minnesota.

Counties in the Duluth area that are included in this watch are:

Koochiching MN...Itasca MN...Cass MN...Crow Wing MN...and Aitkin MN...

Some cities included in this watch are:

International Falls MN...Littlefork MN...Northome MN...Bigfork MN...Deer River MN...Grand Rapids MN...Walker MN...Pine River MN...Brainerd MN...Cross Lake MN...Hill City MN...Aitkin MN...and McGregor MN...

Remember a severe thunderstorm watch means conditions are favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for rapidly changing weather conditions and for possible warnings.

Monday, June 22, 2009

6/22/09: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:26 PM CDT, Monday, June 22nd, 2009

West Duluth Rainfall Total from Sunday was around 0.45"

Severe Event:

Scattered tornadic supercells developed near a warm front over far Southern Minnesota Sunday Evening...7 tornadoes were reported from this event. Here are the tornado reports from Sunday, June 21st, 2009...Data provided by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma.

1 mile Southwest of Easton MN (Faribault County) Tornado at 704 PM CDT.

2 miles North of Easton MN (Faribault County) Tornado with some debris at 730 PM CDT.

2 miles South of Mansfield MN (Freeborn County) Tornado plus up to 5 funnel clouds at 806 PM CDT.

Near Baroda MN (Faribault County) Brief tornado at 832 PM CDT.

1 mile Southwest of Alden MN (Freeborn County) Tornado at 835 PM CDT.

2 miles South-Southeast of Twin Lakes MN (Freeborn County) Brief tornado at 918 PM CDT.

1 mile North of Twin Lakes MN (Freeborn County) 2nd brief tornado at 924 PM CDT.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Skies became partly to mostly sunny Today over all but Northeast Minnesota and extreme Northwest Wisconsin where onshore winds coming off Lake Superior combined with a very moist airmass caused low clouds and areas of fog to persist through the day. High temperatures Today were in the 70s and 80s with cooler 50s and 60s closer to Lake Superior. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +15 to +20 degrees C across our area. Dewpoints Today away from Lake Superior were into the 60s to lower 70s with H85 dewpoints as of 3 PM ranging from +8 to +14 degrees C with PWS of 1.10"-1.70"...Lowest values toward the Brainerd area with the deepest moisture covering far Northeast Minnesota down through Ashland and Hurley in Northwest Wisconsin. Winds across our area were out of the south, west, or east Today at 5-15 mph. The surface map This Afternoon is a mess as there are numerous areas of low pressure and surface boundaries draped over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest. One area of low pressure averaging 996 mb was centered over Central Saskatchewan Province with a cold front attached to this low extending southwest into the Western Dakotas. Low pressure of 1006 mb was centered in Central Minnesota with a warm front attached to this low extending through Northcentral into Eastcentral Minnesota.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

H5 ridge covered the Central-Southern Plains This Afternoon with a potent H5 trough/upper level low covering the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. SW flow aloft was in place across the Upper Midwest Today on the east side of the H5 trough to our west with a disturbance in the process of lifting northeast out of Northern Minnesota This Afternoon.

(Tonight)

Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies with mild and humid conditions. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with south, west, or east winds at 5-15 mph. Areas of fog are possible Tonight with the greatest threat for thicker fog continuing to be closer to Lake Superior. A few showers or thunderstorms could also develop Tonight near the warm frontal boundary which is lifting slowly north-east out of Central Minnesota Today. Plenty of instability will be in place near this boundary with CAPES up to 1000 j/kg with LI'S of -2 to -7 degrees C. 0-6 KM Bulk Shear and Effective Bulk Shear will be around 30-40 knots with 30-40 knots of SW H5 winds. The limiting factors will be a weak low level jet along with a cap as H7 temperatures range from +6 to +8 degrees C through the night. If any activity did develop Tonight it should remain quite spotty in coverage.

(Tuesday and Tuesday Night)

Model differences exist during this period with the 12z NAM/WRF indicating a severe weather potential for most of our area while the 12z GFS isn't as enthused with a severe threat for our area with the majority of any severe weather developing farther south.

A cold front will be moving southeast across our area during this period with a rather robust cap expected along and ahead of this front. H7 temperatures are forecast to range from +8 to +10 degrees C while H85 temps warm to +18 to +22 degrees C.

It's going to take quite a bit of forcing or a disturbance to break through this cap and right now it does appear that we could see both things occur to trigger some convection.

Should a thunderstorm develop they could turn severe thanks to quite a bit of instability and some shear in place along with fast winds aloft. The 12z NAM/WRF model from Today shows Afternoon CAPES of 1500-3000 j/kg with LI'S of -2 to -6 degrees C along with a 25-30 knot SWRLY 850 mb jet and 35-50 knots of west winds at 500 mb. 0-3 KM SRH is forecast to range from 200 m2/s2 to 350 m2/s2 with 0-1 KM SRH of 100 m2/s2 to 200 m2/s2. All these parameters certainly are favorable for deep convection. Again the latest GFS shows much weaker instability across our local area with better chances for storms confined to the Southern half of Minnesota and along the Minnesota/Ontario line.

If severe thunderstorms develop they could produce large hail and damaging winds with a limited threat for a tornado.

Right now it would appear that Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...Pine...Southern St. Louis...and Itasca Counties in Northcentral...Eastcentral...and Northeast Minnesota along with Burnett and Douglas Counties in Northwest Wisconsin would be under the gun the most for a severe weather threat during this period.

High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 80s and 90s with 50s and 60s possibly lingering closer to Lake Superior if winds stay light enough which would cause the marine layer to stay in place along with a potential for some low clouds and or fog. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

Winds will be out of the south or west on Tuesday with west, southwest, or northwest winds Tuesday Night. Wind speeds will range from 10-20 mph during this period.

(Extended Forecast)

Cold front will settle south out of our area with high pressure controlling our weather for Wednesday and Thursday. Looks very nice during this period with northwesterly winds and lower humidity. Highs are expected to reach the 70s and 80s both Wednesday and Thursday with lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night in the 50s and 60s. Next threat for showers or thunderstorms and possibly some severe weather could come during the Friday-Saturday time frame as a strong area of low pressure passes through Western-Central Canada with a cold front attached to this low pushing east through the Northern Plains-Upper Midwest.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Toinight... Humid. Areas of fog. Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 55 to 60 and around 50 closer to Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday... Humid. Areas of fog mainly early. Partly to mostly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible during the Afternoon. High 77 to 82 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible mainly during the Evening. Partly cloudy. Low 58 to 63. Wind becoming west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Wednesday... Less humid. Partly cloudy. High 80 to 85.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 56 to 61.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 82 to 87.

.Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 56 to 61.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 75 to 80.

Normal High Temperature Today 73 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 50 degrees

Tim

Sunday, June 21, 2009

6/21/09: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:31 PM CDT, Sunday, June 21st, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 1992... A record low temperature of 30 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Clouds have been on the increase from southwest to northeast across our area Today as a 1003 mb low pressure approaches from Southeastern South Dakota. A warm front attached to this low was over Western Iowa. A 25-35 knot low level jet was found out ahead of this system Today which has resulted in an increase in low level moisture across our area with dewpoints This Afternoon in the 50s and 60s with H85 dewpoints climbing to +10 to +12 degrees across southwest portions of our area. There's a very tight PW gradient in place over our area This Afternoon with 3 PM PWS ranging from .70"-.90" across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin to 1.00"-1.50" in southwest parts of our area. Showers some locally moderate to heavy have been advancing north-northeast out of Central Minnesota This Afternoon with the leading edge of the rain as of 3:30 PM CDT along and south of a line from Cass Lake to Warba to Mahtowa to Gordon to Winter to Phillips. High temperatures Today were generally in the 70s and 80s with 50s and 60s closer to Lake Superior. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM were right around +16 degrees C. Winds across our area were out of the southeast or east Today at 10-20 mph.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Southwest H5 flow was in place across the Upper Midwest This Afternoon with an upper level trough covering the Pacific Northwest and Central and Northern Rockies. Upper level ridge was in place through the Central and Southern Plains while an upper level low was located just off the Eastern seaboard.

(Tonight)

Deep moisture will continue to flow north-east into our area Tonight as low pressure continues it's northeast track out of Eastern South Dakota. Showers should be fairly widespread across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with some locally heavy downpours possible thanks to PWS of 1.00"-1.70" and H85 dewpoints of +10 to +14 degrees C. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible during the night as instability increases with MUCAPES expected to rise to 500-1000 j/kg later Tonight. Severe weather isn't expected at this time...However a few of the stronger storms if they develop could put down some hail in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Tonight will be in the 50s and 60s with winds out of the south or east at 10-20 mph. Look for mostly cloudy skies through the night with the potential for some areas of fog.

(Monday and Monday Night)

Low pressure will be exiting to our east-northeast on Monday with a weak boundary attached to this low more or less stalling out across Central Minnesota. A muggy airmass will remain in place through Monday Night with a threat for Morning showers or isolated thunderstorms over parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. The remainder of this period looks mainly dry...although a few showers or thunderstorms may push into parts of Northcentral Minnesota later Monday Night. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies during this period with highs Monday in the 70s and 80s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior where some patchy fog could persist at least into Monday Morning. Lows Monday Night will be in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be out of the south or east at 5-15 mph during this period.

(Extended Forecast)

The theme from mid week through late this week will be for an H5 ridge to settle into the Plains while fast jet stream winds reside across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest. A cold front is expected to move through our area sometime Tuesday or Tuesday Night with this boundary then pushing south out of our area by mid-week. High pressure will then build into our area behind this cold front from Wednesday into Thursday the way it looks now with this high then exiting to our east later in the week which will make way for another cold front during the late Friday/Saturday time period. Plenty of moisture and instability will be in place north of this ridge and near the surface fronts and this could lead to a cluster or two of showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday into Wednesday and then again later this week. Will have to keep a close eye on how things set up this week since if a storm complex was to develop it could turn into a high wind event since the stronger winds aloft will be confined to our general area most of this week. High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 70s and 80s with a few 90s also possible especially on Tuesday. Lows Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s with some 70s possible Tuesday Night in southern parts of our area.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Showers with areas of fog developing. Thunderstorms also possible. Low 53 to 58. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80%.

.Monday... Variable cloudiness. Areas of fog possible mainly during the Morning. Showers or thunderstorms possible mainly early. High 75 to 80 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 57 to 62. Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly sunny. High 83 to 88. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly cloudy. Low 60 to 65. Chance of rain 20%.

.Wednesday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly sunny. High 80 to 85. Chance of rain 20%.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 56 to 61.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 82 to 87.

Normal High Temperature Today 72 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 50 degrees

Tim

Saturday, June 20, 2009

6/20/09: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:40 PM CDT, Saturday, June 20th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 1995... A record high temperature of 88 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.
Note: We only missed Today's record high temperature by about 5 degrees.

On this date in 1992... A record low temperature of 31 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

A very nice last day of Spring with plenty of sunshine and just some fair weather cumulus clouds passing through from time to time. High temperatures Today were in the 70s and 80s with dewpoints mainly in the 40s and 50s with 4 PM 850 mb temperatures ranging from +15 to +16 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the west or northwest at 10-20 mph. Surface weather map late This Afternoon featured a weak cold front passing through Central Minnesota with a weak high pressure ridge of 1010 mb moving into Western Minnesota late Today.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Upper level trough covered the Western U.S. This Afternoon with a well defined shortwave lifting north-east out of New Mexico/Colorado or out ahead of the H5 trough. A plume of deep subtropical moisture was in place ahead of this disturbance with Afternoon PWS of 1.50"-2.20" across the Plains. Some of this deep moisture will be lifting into the Upper Midwest Sunday and Sunday Night. Meanwhile an H5 ridge continued to cover the Southern Plains/Southeast U.S. Today.

(Tonight)

A pleasant night is on tap across our area with clear to partly cloudy skies expected as high pressure passes east through our area. Lows Tonight will be mainly in the 50s to low 60s with some 40s possible in the traditional cool spots in Northeast Minnesota. Winds Tonight will be out of the north or west under 15 mph with winds becoming variable to east during the overnight hours.

(Sunday and Sunday Night)

The disturbance heading across the Plains This Afternoon will continue to lift north-east toward the Upper Midwest during this period. Moisture will be on the increase Sunday and Sunday Night as southerly winds draw deeper moisture north into our area. Should see dewpoints get back into the 50s and 60s during this period with PWS climbing to 1.00" to around 1.50". Scattered showers or thunderstorms will spread southwest to north-east across the area from Sunday Afternoon into Sunday Night. Right now it doesn't appear that any of these storms will be severe...but an increase in elevated instability with MUCAPES rising to around 1000 j/kg could result in a few storms nearing severe levels especially Sunday Night across Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Hail would be the primary threat if stronger storms do develop. Highs Sunday will be in the 70s and 80s with 50s and 60s closer to Lake Superior. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s closer to Lake Superior. Winds during this period will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

The disturbance affecting our weather by this time Tomorrow will be exiting to our northeast on Monday. Then will see a cold front more or less become stationary across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest Tuesday and Wednesday as an H5 ridge which covered the Southern-Southeast U.S. Today expands north/west through most of next week. Plenty of moisture/instability/shear/and fast winds aloft will be located across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest during the early to middle portion of next week and this combined with the front near the area could result in the development of scattered thunderstorm complexes with a potential for high winds if they do develop. Exactly where these storm complexes develop will hinge upon how far north the H5 ridge builds and where exactly the surface boundary sets up. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the 70s and 80s with some 90s also possible. Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s with some locations possibly not dropping below 70 degrees...especially in southern parts of our area. We could see some cooling take place at times closer to Lake Superior if surface winds remain light.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 55 to 60. Wind northwest to west at 10 to 15 mph. Wind becoming east Overnight at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Partly to mostly cloudy. Afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible. High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Sunday Night... Showers or thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy. Low 53 to 58. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

.Monday... Variable cloudiness. Morning showers or thunderstorms possible. High 75 to 80. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 57 to 62.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 83 to 88.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 60 to 65. Chance of rain 20%.

.Wednesday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly sunny. High 83 to 88. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 72 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 50 degrees

Tim

Friday, June 19, 2009

6/19/09: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:58 PM CDT, Friday, June 19th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 1992... A record low temperature of 34 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

On this date in 1998... 1.55" of rain fell at Duluth, MN.

Storm reports from Thursday, June 18th, 2009... Information provided by the National Weather Service, Duluth, Minnesota.

3 miles West of Pine City MN (Pine County) 0.75" diameter hail at 7:30 PM CDT. Hail fell just esat of Pokegama Lake.

Pine City MN (Pine County) 1.00" diameter hail at 7:38 PM CDT. Hail fell for 5 minutes at Pine City North of exit I-35. A few larger stones were also mixed in.

Pine City MN (Pine County) 0.50" diameter hail at 738 PM CDT. Hail covered the deck and yard.

Pillager MN (Cass County) 0.75" diameter hail at 8:26 PM CDT.

Storm reports from Friday, June 19th, 2009. Information provided by the National Weather Service, Duluth, Minnesota.

4 miles Northwest of Stone Lake WI (Washburn County) 1.00" diameter hail at 5:42 AM CDT.

4 miles West-Northwest of Kennan WI (Price County) 1.75" diameter hail at 6:22 AM CDT.

5 miles Northwest of Catawba WI (Price County) 1.75" diameter hail at 6:28 AM CDT.

5 miles Southwest of Phillips WI (Price County) 1.75" diameter hail at 6:29 AM CDT.

Heavy rainfall

Pockets of very heavy rain fell last night over portions of Northcentral and Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Radar rainfall estimates out of Duluth showed that 1.75"-2.75" of rain fell last night over Northern Crow Wing County MN or north of Cross Lake... 1.25"-1.75" of rain fell over most of Cass County MN with 0.80"-1.75" of rain across Central-Southern Itasca County MN... Far Southern Crow Wing County picked up between 1.25"-2.25" of rain last night and this also extended east into far Southern Aitkin County and Pine County in MN or between the cities of Hinckley and Pine City... Another area of heavier rain with amounts of 0.80"-1.75" fell last night over Northern-Central-and Western portions of Carlton County MN. Even heavier rain amounts fell across far Northern Minnesota last night with Eastern Koochiching and Northwestern St. Louis Counties picking up 1.25"-3.50" of rain with 1.25" to as much as 4.50" of rain falling over Cook County with the cities of Hovland and Grand Marais picking up between 1.75"-2.75" of rain. Lake County MN was also hit hard in terms of rainfall last night with amounts of 1.25"-3.50" with the higher totals north of a line from Wales to Silver Bay. Northeast Lake County MN (mainly rural areas) saw anywhere from 2.25"-5.50" of rain.

Areas of heavy rain also occurred in Northwest Wisconsin last night with amounts of 0.80"-1.75" falling over Southern Douglas...Northern-Eastern Burnett...Central-Northern Washburn...Western-Central-Eastern-and Southern Sawyer...Central-Southern Price...Northern Bayfield...Central Ashland...and Central Iron Counties.

Keep in mind that some of these totals could be contaminated somewhat by any hail that may have fallen in those counties.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

A warm and muggy day across our area with high temperatures generally in the 70s to low 80s with dewpoints mostly in the 60s. It was cooler though closer to Lake Superior with highs generally in the 50s Today along with areas of fog which has for the most part burnt off This Afternoon. 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM CDT ranged from +14 to +18 degrees C across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Skies Today were partly sunny to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms affecting Northern Minnesota with a few more showers and thunderstorms at times earlier in the day over in Northwest Wisconsin. Weather map late This Afternoon featured a 998 mb low along the Manitoba-Ontario Province line with a trough attached to this low extending south into Western Minnesota.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

H5 ridge has been surpressed to the southeast a bit Today compared to the past few days with the ridge axis late Today extending from Cental Texas to Northern Kentucky per RUC model analysis. A shortwave trough with 30 meter 12 hour H5 height falls was tracking into the Upper Midwest This Afternoon from the Northern Plains while an upper level low was shifting slowly north toward the Southwest U.S. while an upper level trough was centered in the Pacific Northwest.

(Tonight)

The aforementioned trough will continue to push east through our area Tonight. There is enough instability and moisture in place to warrant a risk for scattered showers and thunderstorms before Midnight across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Late Afternoon CAPES were generally around 1000 j/kg with LI'S of zero to -4 degrees C. Shear is virtually non-existent however with 0-6 KM Bulk Shear and Effective Bulk Shear under 30 knots...as a result any storm that develops This Evening will be pulsy in nature meaning it could intensify briefly before it dissipates. Locally heavy rainfall and occasional lightning strikes will be the main hazards from these storms This Evening with small hail and gusty winds also possible in the strongest storms. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies across our area Tonight with some patchy fog possible late. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with winds out of the south, west, or east turning to the northwest at 5-15 mph.

(Saturday and Saturday Night)

A very nice day is on tap for Saturday with partly cloudy-mostly sunny skies with high temperatures reaching the 70s and 80s along with northwest or west winds at 10-20 mph. Should see dewpoints fall into the 40s and 50s as well on Saturday. Lows Saturday Night under partly cloudy skies are forecast to fall into the 50s to low 60s with winds turning back into the south and east.

(Extended Forecast)

Some changes could take place Sunday and Sunday Night as the disturbance currently moving into the Southwest U.S. lifts northeast and possibly affects our weather later this weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible as moist and unstable air lifts north into our area as this system approaches. Remains to be seen on where the better rain chances will be for Sunday and Sunday Night since each model tends to focus the heavier amounts of rain in different locations within our local area. Highs Sunday will be in the 70s and 80s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 50s and 60s. By early next week will see the late weekend disturbance exit to our north-east which will be followed by an H5 ridge which is forecast to expand west and north into the Central Plains. Will have to keep an eye out for any possible thunderstorm complex that may develop and ride up and over this Central Plains ridge since we should have plenty of instability and faster winds aloft residing across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest during the early to mid part of next week for any storm complex to tap into. May be looking at a high wind potential with any storm cluster that could develop next week.

High temperatures on Monday will be in the 70s and 80s but some isolated locations could reach 90 degrees. Lows Monday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible This Evening. Low 53 to 58. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph Inland with east winds shifting west at 5 to 15 mph closer to Lake Superior. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday... Mostly sunny. High 78 to 83. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph becoming east.

.Sunday... Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible mainly during the Afternoon. High 72 to 77 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. High 75 to 80. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 57 to 62.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 81 to 86.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 72 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 50 degrees

Tim

Thursday, June 18, 2009

6/18/09: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Information

Issued at 11:13 PM CDT, Thursday, June 18th, 2009

*Severe Thunderstorm Watch* number 470 remains in effect until 2 AM CDT Friday Morning for the following counties in the Duluth area:

Carlton MN...Pine MN...Douglas WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Iron WI...Burnett WI...Washburn WI...Sawyer WI...and Price WI...

Some cities included in this watch are:

Cloquet MN...Moose Lake MN...Hinckley MN...Pine City MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Hurley WI...Siren WI...Grantsburg WI...Spooner WI...Hayward WI...and Park Falls WI...

Hail to 2 inches in diameter and thunderstorm wind gusts to 70 mph are possible in these areas along with dangerous lightning.

This watch is along and 65 statue miles east and west of a line extending from 40 miles west-northwest of Kennedy Wisconsin to 5 miles southwest of Eau Claire Wisconsin.

This watch covers Eastcentral Minnesota...Northwestern Wisconsin...and Lake Superior.

Tim

6/18/09: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:58 PM CDT, Thursday, June 18th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 1995... A record high temperature of 94 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Severe Weather Event:

Supercells producing tornadoes developed during the late Afternoon and Evening hours on Wednesday, June 17th, 2009 over parts of far Western Minnesota and in far Southeast Minnesota. The tornado count from this event was 8.

Here are the tornado reports from the Storm Prediction Center...

2 miles South of Doran MN (Wilkin County) Tornado at 440 PM CDT.

4 miles West of Nashua MN (Wilkin County) Tornado at 508 PM CDT.

Geneva MN (Freeborn County) Tornado at 730 PM CDT.

3 miles North of Blooming Prairie MN (Steele County) Tornado at 754 PM CDT.

5 miles Northeast of Waseca MN (Waseca County) Tornado at 802 PM CDT.

1 mile Northwest of Austin MN (Mower County) Tornado at 808 PM CDT.

2 miles South of Morristown MN (Waseca County) Tornado at 810 PM CDT.

1 mile Northeast of Waseca MN (Waseca County) Multiple Vortex Tornado at 814 PM CDT.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies were found across our area Today with high temperatures in the 70s to around 80 degrees with cooler 50s and 60s especially closer to Lake Superior. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +14 to +16 degrees C across our area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed at times Today across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with some of the most intense storms confined to the Arrowhead of Minnesota This Afternoon...mainly in far Northern Lake County. Supercells possibly producing up to baseball size hail along with tornadoes also flared up This Afternoon around the Alexandria area in Westcentral Minnesota. These storms Today have been forming north of a warm front which was centered over Central Minnesota with low pressure of 1003 mb and 1000 mb centered in the Southeast half of North Dakota and over Central South Dakota respectively. A very moist and unstable airmass remains in place across our area Today with Afternoon dewpoints in the 60s away from Lake Superior with PWS of 1.00"-1.20" over most of our area...Afternoon CAPES were generally in the 1000-2000 j/kg range with LI'S of -2 to -6 degrees C. 0-6 KM Bulk Shear and Effective Bulk Shear was running around 30 knots This Afternoon across our area with southwesterly H5 winds of 20-30 knots.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

H5 ridge associated with some intense heat covered the Central-Southern Plains Today while disturbances continued to ride up and over this upper level ridge across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... One such disturbance was heading east out of South Dakota Today while another disturbance was centered over North Dakota...Meanwhile an H5 trough covered most of the Western U.S.

(Tonight)

The overall weather pattern will remain the same as it was 24 hours ago...We have one surface boundary in place across the Central part of Minnesota while another surface boundary was in place down along the Iowa-Minnesota state line. There will be sufficient instability and enough shear in place to support the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms Tonight across the majority of our area. There continues to be a risk for a few severe thunderstorms as well Tonight mainly over Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...Pine...Burnett...Washburn...Sawyer...and Price counties in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats with heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning possible in any storm that does develop Tonight. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies Tonight with areas of fog developing during the night. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s closer to Lake Superior. Winds will be out of the south or east Tonight at 10-20 mph.

(Friday and Friday Night)

The upper level trough covering the Western U.S. Today will shift east along with a cold front. CAPES are forecast to climb to around 1000 j/kg on Friday with LI'S of zero to -3 degrees C...Shear looks somewhat less compared to Today as do the winds aloft...nontheless there should be enough shear in place to promote an isolated severe thunderstorm risk once again mainly across Western and Southern parts of our local area. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible in any storm that develops. The threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms will be greatest during the day Tomorrow into Friday Evening before conditions dry out later Friday Night the way it looks now. Look for partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies Tomorrow with partly-mostly cloudy skies Tomorrow Night. Areas of fog could linger through Friday Morning over parts of our area with some fog possibly redeveloping later Friday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with cooler temps closer to Lake Superior. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s closer to Lake Superior. Winds will be out of the south, north, or east during this period at 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

It looks dry across the area Saturday into Sunday with high temperatures both days in the 70s and 80s with lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night in the 50s to low 60s. Looks like will see a lake breeze re-develop though by Sunday which would mean cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. Chances for showers or thunderstorms move back into the forecast by early next week...possibly beginning as early as Sunday Night over Western and Southern parts of our area. Looks like will see a new cold front move east out of the Northern Plains early next week with a moist and unstable airmass found along and ahead of this boundary. Could be dealing with another threat of severe weather early next week depending on how everything sets up.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers or thunderstorms along with areas of dense fog. Low 50 to 55 with 40s closer to Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Friday... Scattered showers or thunderstorms. Otherwise Considerable cloudiness with areas of fog possible mainly during the Morning. High 68 to 73 but in the 50s closer to Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Friday Night... Showers possible mainly during the Evening. Otherwise mostly cloudy. Areas of fog possible. Low 50 to 55. Wind north to northeast at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 75 to 80.

.Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 55 to 60.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 76 to 81 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60.

.Monday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. High 75 to 80. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 72 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 49 degrees

Tim

6/18/09: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Information

Issued at 2:00 PM CDT, Thursday, June 18th, 2009

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma has issued *Severe Thunderstorm Watch* number 465 which is in effect until 9 PM CDT This Evening for parts of Central and Western Minnesota...Southern North Dakota...and Northern and Eastern South Dakota.

Hail to 2.5 inches in diameter...Thunderstorm wind gusts to 70 mph...and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.

This watch is along and 70 statue miles north and south of a line extending from 10 miles east of Brainerd Minnesota to 45 miles west-southwest of Mobridge South Dakota.

Counties in the Duluth area that are included in this watch are:

Cass MN...and Crow Wing MN...

This includes the cities of Walker MN...Backus MN...Pine River MN...Cross Lake MN...Nisswa MN...and Brainerd MN...

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

6/17/09: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:16 PM CDT, Wednesday, June 17th, 2009

Welcome to Summer...

Weather History:

On this date in 1995... A record high temperature of 93 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

On this date in 2000... A record low temperature of 35 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Ended up being much drier across the majority of our area Today and we even saw more sunshine than what was expected 24 hours ago...although there were still quite a bit of clouds away from Lake Superior Today. A very muggy airmass remains overhead especially away from Lake Superior with Afternoon dewpoints in the 50s and 60s with PWS ranging from 1.00"-1.30" across almost all of our area Today. Even higher dewpoints in the 70s were found over parts of Southcentral Minnesota This Afternoon! Summer is making it's move to the north! There's been a few passing showers across parts of Northern Minnesota This Afternoon but for the most part it's been a pretty dry day across our area. High temperatures Today were in the 60s and 70s with 50s closer to Lake Superior. 2 PM 850 mb temperatures ranged from +11 to +14 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the south or east at 10-20 mph. The surface weather map as of mid-Afternoon featured an area of low pressure of 1007 mb centered in extreme Northeast South Dakota with a stationary frontal boundary attached to this low extending from Eastern South Dakota down through Southern Minnesota.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

The H5 ridge which has been confined to the far Southern parts of the U.S. as of late has really shifted north during the last 24 hours with the ridge This Afternoon now extending from Southern New Mexico up to extreme Northeast Kansas and Northern Missouri. Yesterday the farthest north this H5 ridge was located was in far Southern Oklahoma! Result from all this is that deeper moisture and more energy to fuel thunderstorm activity will be found closer to our area or on the north side of this hot capped ridge. This ridge will more or less stay in tact into early July with some fluctuations north and south and east and west...The closer this ridge gets to our area the better chance will have of getting down right hot/muggy weather into our area...this scenario doesn't look to likely however, although it will still be plenty warm and humid at times during the next week or two across our area with still a chance for at least a one or two day heat wave building into our neck of the woods during the next two weeks. What is hard to predict is when and where thunderstorms will initiate. We will certainly have enough fuel in the atmosphere to spark convection at times through next week...but pinpointing exact times and days have been and will continue to be rather difficult in this new weather pattern.

Taking a look at This Afternoon's water vapor satellite imagery shows a strong disturbance lifting northeast out of the Southwest U.S. with an upper level trough covering most of the Western U.S.

(Tonight)

A stationary front will continue to reside south of our local area. Instability will be on the rise Tonight especially elevated instability and this could lead to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms Tonight especially from Northcentral through Eastcentral Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin. MUCAPES are forecast to rise to around 1000 j/kg during the night with LI'S of zero to -3 degrees C along with around 30-40 knots of 0-6 KM Bulk Shear and Effective Bulk Shear. There is a chance that a few of these storms could become severe Tonight with hail and high winds being the main threats...Right now the best chance for any severe weather looks to be along and south of a line from Walker to McGregor to Sandstone...locally heavy rainfall could also occur Tonight thanks to dews in the 50s and 60s with PWS over 1" and H85 td's around +10 degrees C. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies Tonight with lows in the 50s and 60s with 40s closer to Lake Superior. Winds will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph.

(Thursday and Thursday Night)

Basic pattern remains the same during this period as what were seeing Today...although the H5 ridge may lift a bit more to the north compared to Today. An upper trough will be centered to our west with the main surface boundary continuing to sit over Southern Minnesota. Some disturbances will continue to rotate up and around the Central Plains ridge and any one of those features could go on to trigger a round of showers and thunderstorms across our area through this period. More instability is forecast to be in place over our area Thursday Afternoon and Evening compared to Today as the thermal ridge lifts further north into our local area...CAPES are forecast to reach 1500-3000 j/kg with LI'S around -3 degrees C along with about 30-35 knots of westerly H5 winds and around 30 knots of 0-6 KM Bulk Shear and Effective Bulk Shear. It still appears that the stronger winds aloft will remain farther south in Southern Minnesota during this period and that's where the better shear will also be...Although there will be plenty of instability and probably just enough shear around our area to produce a few severe thunderstorms during this period. Hail and gusty winds look to be the main threats at this time along with locally heavy rainfall thanks to dewpoints in the 60s and PWS of 1.00"-1.50" and H85 td's ranging from +10 to +14 degrees C. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies during this period with highs Tomorrow in the 60s and 70s but some 80s are possible especially if we see more sun than what is anticipated right now. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s and 60s. It will be cooler though closer to Lake Superior. Winds will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph during this period.

(Extended Forecast)

Look for an upper level trough and cold front to push through our area Friday and Friday Evening. More showers or thunderstorms are expected to develop as this system moves through. Could be dealing with more of a heavy rain threat versus a severe weather threat on Friday thanks to very weak winds aloft. Although pulse type severe storms can't be ruled out Friday Afternoon over parts of our area depending on the timing of the front and how much clearing can take place out ahead of the upper trough/cold front. This system will exit to our east this weekend which will result in dry conditions for Saturday and Sunday along with warm temperatures. Expect highs on Friday to be in the 60s and 70s with lows Friday Night mainly in the 50s. Highs on Saturday will reach the 70s and 80s with lows Saturday Night in the 50s to low 60s. The next threat for showers or thunderstorms look to arrive early next week...possibly as early as Sunday Night for western parts of our area. Will have to keep an eye on this system for a possible severe weather threat since it should have plenty of instability and moisture to work with as it moves in early next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 50 to 55 with 40s closer to Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Thursday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 52 to 57. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Friday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Considerable cloudiness. High 68 to 73. Chance of rain 60%.

.Friday Night... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 52 to 57. Chance of rain 50%.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 75 to 80.

.Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 55 to 60.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 78 to 83 but it may turn cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal High Temperature Today 72 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 49 degrees

Tim

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

6/16/09: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:06 PM CDT, Tuesday, June 16th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 1982... A record low temperature of 35 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Low pressure of 1007 mb was centered over far Southern North Dakota as of midday. Southerly flow of moist air was in place out ahead of this low across the Upper Midwest Today with Afternoon dewpoints in the 50s to around 60 degrees for areas away from Lake Superior. PWS as of mid-Afternoon ranged from 1.00"-1.30" over most of our area. Skies for the most part were mostly cloudy Today but there has been some breaks for sunshine especially in far Northern Minnesota and across Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin... A rather large area of rain has been working north through the western parts of our area Today with rainfall estimates per Duluth doppler radar ranging from 0.45"-1.75" across Southwest Koochiching...Western Itasca...Cass...Crow Wing...and Western Aitkin counties in Northcentral-Eastcentral Minnesota. This more persistent area of rain has fallen west of a line from Bigfork to Grand Rapids to Hill City to Malmo. A seperate area of locally heavy showers developed late last night over parts of Northwestern Wisconsin with rainfall amounts per Duluth doppler radar ranging from .25"-.50"...Western-Southern Douglas...Northern Washburn...and the Western-Southern parts of Sawyer counties was where these heavier showers occurred early Today. This Afternoon we've seen a few thunderstorms develop in far Northern Minnesota...generally over the Northern half of St. Louis County where CAPES managed to build to 250-500 j/kg with LI'S around zero to -2 degrees C. Locally heavy downpours have occurred in these isolated storms This Afternoon along with some occasional lightning and small hail. High temperatures across the area were generally in the 60s and 70s Today with 50s near Lake Superior and in areas that have seen more persistent rainfall Today. 2 PM 850 mb temperatures ranged from +11 to +12 degrees C across our area. Winds Today were out of the south or east around 10-20 mph.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

An upper level low was centered over the Southwest half of North Dakota This Afternoon per RUC model analysis. Numerous severe thunderstorms including a few tornadoes have been developing near and south-southeast of this H5 low Today in Southern North Dakota and Northcentral South Dakota. An H5 ridge continued to cover the Southern Plains Today with H5 troughs covering the Rockies and the Northeast U.S.

(Tonight)

Looks like the better chances for rain and isolated thunderstorms will continue to be over Northcentral and Eastcentral Minnesota and through Northwest Wisconsin Tonight as an upper level low remains off to our west while a moist airmass remains over our area out ahead of this feature. Locally heavy downpours are possible in some of this activity Tonight due to the high amounts of moisture that are in place. Look for mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 50s and low 60s with 40s near Lake Superior. Winds will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph.

(Wednesday and Wednesday Night)

Expect partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies across our area Tomorrow with partly-mostly cloudy skies Tomorrow Night. Some showers are possible on Wednesday across Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota with a new threat for showers and thunderstorms moving into the area from the west by Wednesday Night. Looks like will start to see more instability begin to push north toward our local area during this period with CAPES possibly climbing to around 1000 j/kg over our western areas by Wednesday Afternoon-Night with LI'S of zero to around -3 degrees C. Shear looks very weak however as does the winds aloft so any storm that manages to develop will tend to move along rather slowly and could be efficient rain producers. An isolated risk for severe thunderstorms does exist from late Wednesday into Wednesday Evening...especially around the Cass/Crow Wing county areas in Minnesota. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with 50s near Lake Superior. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s to low 60s with 40s near Lake Superior. Winds will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph during this period.

(Extended Forecast)

A moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain in place across our area through Friday. Looks like will also see an upper trough and cold front move into the Upper Midwest from late Thursday into Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible during this time period as moisture and instabilty interact with some disturbances which will ride up and over the hot ridge across the Southcentral Plains. Timing of these features remain problematic with the forecast models Today but we should see at least some spells of wet weather across all of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Thursday into Friday. Some of this rain could be locally heavy thanks to dewpoints in the 50s and 60s with PWS of 1.00"-1.50". Severe thunderstorm chances will likely hinge upon if we can get the stronger winds aloft to push more to the north than what is forecast right now. At this time it appears that only an isolated risk for severe storms would occur across our area for both Thursday and Friday with the stronger shear and winds aloft confined to the Southern half of Minnesota where the more widespread severe weather may unfold later this week...things could change however over the next day or so.

High temperatures on Friday will be in the 60s and 70s with highs Saturday in the 70s and 80s. Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

There will be a lingering chance for showers Friday Night into Saturday...although the trend right now is for this late week system to head far enough to our east to provide a mainly dry Saturday for our local area.

Note: It really does appear that a more typical late Spring/early Summer weather pattern is becoming established now across the Upper Midwest and this new pattern may carry over into early July.

On average over the next two weeks or so we could see more frequent thunderstorms and possible severe weather events as well as muggy and much warmer temperatures every now and then...Will also see some lake cooling take place on occasion.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 50 to 55 with 40s near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday... Showers possible. Considerable cloudiness. High 68 to 73 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible mainly late. Low 50 to 55. Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Considerable cloudiness. High 68 to 73. Chance of rain 50%.

.Thursday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 52 to 57. Chance of rain 40%.

.Friday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Considerable cloudiness. High 68 to 73. Chance of rain 60%.

.Friday Night... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 52 to 57. Chance of rain 50%.

.Saturday... Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 75 to 80. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 71 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 49 degrees

Tim

Monday, June 15, 2009

6/15/09: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 2:56 PM CDT, Monday, June 15th, 2009

Weather History

On this date in 1989... A record low temperature of 35 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

High temperatures warmed into the 70s and 80s Today for areas away from Lake Superior as southerly winds developed on the back side of a 1018 mb high which has moved into the Eastern Great Lakes This Afternoon. 850 mb temperatures at 2 PM were right around +12 to +13 degrees C across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Dewpoints have also increased into the 40s and 50s over most of our area Today thanks to those southerly breezes. Partly to mostly sunny skies were found across the area Today with a few showers and thunderstorms beginning to develop as of 2 PM over parts of Northcentral and Eastcentral Minnesota with movement of this activity toward the north-northwest around 25 mph. Cloud tops near a few of these storms were poking up toward 25, 000 This Afternoon per Duluth doppler radar.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Weak H5 ridge continued to cover most of our local area This Afternoon per RUC model analysis... Meanwhile an upper level low was centered over Southeast Montana per Afternoon water vapor satellite imagery/RUC model analysis. Two lead disturbances running ahead of the Northern Rockies H5 low were lifting north-east across Central and Eastern North Dakota and out of Southeast South Dakota This Afternoon. Upper level troughs covered the Northeast U.S. and Eastern Canada as well as most of the Western U.S. with a stronger upper level ridge covering the Southern U.S. Today.

(Tonight)

A few showers and thunderstorms should continue mainly over Western and Southern parts of our area as some energy off to our west-southwest This Afternoon shifts into our area during the night...As this energy moves in it will be bumping into some weak upper level ridging so it remains to be seen if any shower/thunderstorm activity will persist much past mid or late Evening. CAPES during the Evening hours should be around or under 500 j/kg with Lifted Indicies of 0 to -2 degrees C with Lapse Rates ranging from 6.0-8.0 c/km. Shear is very weak however so any storm that does form will tend to move quite slowly and this could result in some locally heavy amounts of rain in isolated locations. Again the main risk for any activity Tonight will be over Northcentral into Eastcentral Minnesota and possibly into parts of Northwest Wisconsin...or west and south of a line from Orr to Hibbing to Floodwood to Moose Lake to Minong...Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies Tonight with lows in the 50s to around 60 degrees but cooler 40s will be more common closer to Lake Superior. Winds will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph.

(Tuesday and Tuesday Night)

Moisture will continue to increase across the area during this period as dewpoints climb through the 50s and possibly into the low 60s while PWS increase to 1.00-1.25". The shortwave trough and H5 low covering the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains Today will also shift east-northeast into the Upper Midwest during this period and this combined with some weak instability in place should lead to some showers and isolated thunderstorms over most of the area. Right now it appears that the majority of any shower activity would fall Tuesday Afternoon and Tuesday Night as it spreads north-east out of Western and Central Minnesota. Note: There continues to be some model disagreement Today during this forecast period with a few models keeping the bulk of the rain confined to southern parts of our local area or south of here altogether while other models show at least some rainfall affecting our entire area by late Tuesday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with some 80s possible especially in far Northern Minnesota. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s and low 60s with 40s closer to Lake Superior. Look for south or east winds at 10-20 mph during this period.

(Extended Forecast)

Tomorrow's disturbance will be shifting east of our area on Wednesday but some lingering showers could continue at least during the Morning hours the way it looks now. The rest of Wednesday should then be dry with high temperatures reaching the 70s for areas away from Lake Superior. Shower or thunderstorm chances will move back into the forecast from Wednesday Night through Saturday as a moist airmass remains overhead and combines forces with a rather strong upper level trough and surface cold front which look to shift east out of the Northern Rockies into the Upper Mississippi Valley region later this week. This whole system should then exit to our east this weekend the way it looks now. Will have to keep an eye on the Thursday and possibly Friday time periods for a severe weather potential for parts of our area...however right now the models are not seeing eye to eye with one another on where the best axis of instability will reside later this week. The 12z GFS is much more unstable across our area on Thursday compared to the 12z NAM however both models show the strongest shear and fastest winds aloft setting up more in Southcentral Minnesota which could limit the amount of severe weather we may see around our area later this week. Stay tuned...

High temperatures Thursday and Friday should top out generally in the 70s with cooler temps near Lake Superior at least into Thursday. Lows Thursday Night and Friday Night should be in the 50s...perhaps a tad cooler near Lake Superior.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 47 to 52. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday... Showers possible. Partly sunny. High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday Night... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday... Showers possible. Partly sunny. High 68 to 73 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 20%.

.Wednesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Thursday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Considerable cloudiness. High 68 to 73. Chance of rain 40%.

.Thursday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 53 to 58. Chance of rain 40%.

.Friday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Considerable cloudiness. High 68 to 73. Chance of rain 40%.

Normal High Temperature Today 71 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 48 degrees

Tim

Sunday, June 14, 2009

6/14/09: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:04 PM CDT, Sunday, June 14th, 2009

Storm reports per NWS Duluth, MN from Saturday, June 13th, 2009.

4 miles Northeast of Askov MN (Pine County) .25" diameter hail at 330 PM CDT. Winds gusted to 35 mph.

Gile WI (Iron County) .25" diameter hail at 245 PM CDT. Winds gusted to 35 mph.

2 miles Southwest of Cook MN (St. Louis County) .25" diameter hail at 215 PM CDT. Minor accumulation reported.

5 miles east of Solon Springs WI (Douglas County) .25" diameter hail at 225 PM CDT.

Tamarack MN (Aitkin County) .25" diameter hail at 2 PM CDT.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin


(Today's Weather)

A weakening cold front continued to settle south into Central Minnesota and Central Wisconsin Today while high pressure of 1016 mb builds south out of Western Ontario Province. Sunshine was in abundance across Northern Minnesota Today while clouds mixed with sun was more common the farther west and south you went across the local area. Highs Today were generally in the 70s to low 80s with cooler 50s and 60s closer to Lake Superior. 2 PM 850 mb temperatures ranged from +11 to +13 degrees C across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Winds were variable in direction at 5-15 mph Today.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Shortwave trough which was over our area 24 hours ago has shifted into the Central and Eastern Great Lakes This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery. A west-northwest H5 flow was in place across the Upper Midwest behind this feature with weak riding occurring across our area Today. An H5 trough was in place over the Western U.S. Today with an H5 ridge stretching from Southern New Mexico through Northern Arkansas and down into the Southeastern U.S. A fairly large upper level low embedded within the Western U.S. trough was heading north-east out of Nevada Today.

(Tonight)

High pressure will be in control of our weather which will result in mainly partly cloudy skies across the area. Lows Tonight are tricky since the high will be overhead and winds should remain quite light generally under 15 mph. Lows last night managed to drop into the middle and upper 30s from International Falls toward Hibbing with similar conditions in place Tonight it's possible that some 30s could occur once again mainly in Northeast Minnesota. Elsewhere we should see lows in the 40s to around 50 degrees. Look for winds to become easterly across the entire area Tonight at 5-15 mph.

(Monday and Monday Night)

Another pleasant late Spring day is on tap for our area as high pressure slides off to the east. Look for partly-mostly sunny skies on Monday with partly-mostly cloudy skies for Monday Night. It should remain dry during this period...although a shower or two may move northeast toward the Brainerd/Aitkin/Pine City areas in Minnesota by later Tomorrow Night. Should see widespread 70s and lower 80s for highs on Monday with cooler 50s and 60s near Lake Superior. Lows Monday Night will be in the 40s and 50s. Look for south or east winds during this period at 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

Continues to be a low confidence extended forecast due to poor model agreement Today...Several features to keep an eye on this week...One will be an upper level low and shortwave trough which is forecast to move east through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest by Tuesday and Wednesday...Second will be a cold front moving into the Upper Midwest later this week...Third will be a possible low that may develop in the Plains later this week which could then track into the Great Lakes as a closed low by early next weekend. The models seem to all show these systems...but the timing and track of such features is handled very differently between the models Today.

The 12z GFS model and the 12z NAM show a cold pool developing across all but far Northern Minnesota Tuesday and Wednesday as some rain and overcast skies keep temperatures way down while far Northern Minnesota experience some sun and thus warmer temperatures compared to the rest of our area.

The latest UK model keeps the Tuesday/Wednesday system mainly south and southeast of our local area which would result in a continued mild and a mainly dry regime for our area into mid week.

The GEM-Global model backs up the GFS/NAM with the rainfall...but this model isn't quite as chilly as what the GFS/NAM are showing for Tuesday-Wednesday.

Then, a whole other mess sets up from Thursday through Saturday...with a few models hinting at a dry period Thursday/Thursday Night while others bring more rain into the area by that time.

The threat for thunderstorms and severe weather seems to be diminishing across our area for mid to late week if current model trends continue...The only period that may hold a somewhat better risk for storms for the local area would be later this week...but again that will hinge upon the timing of the cold front and the exact placement of the best area of warmth/moisture/and instability and right now that appears to be setting up farther south-southeast from our local area.

High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 60s and 70s but some areas could hold in the 50s for daytime highs depending on the exact placement of the rain for both Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Clear to partly cloudy. Low 43 to 48. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 72 to 77 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 48 to 53. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday... Showers possible. Partly sunny. High 65 to 70 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday Night... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 45 to 50. Chance of rain 20%.

.Wednesday... Showers possible. Considerable cloudiness. High 65 to 70. Chance of rain 20%.

.Wednesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. High 65 to 70.

Normal High Temperature Today 71 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 48 degrees

Tim