Sunday, May 31, 2009

5/31/09: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:00 PM CDT, Sunday, May 31st, 2009

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Low pressure of 1002 mb was moving east-southeast out of Southeast North Dakota This Afternoon while a warm front which was attached to this low lifts north-east toward Central Minnesota while a cold front moves southeast out of Western Minnesota. Strong warm air advection was occurring Today out ahead of this low and north-east of the warm front and this has helped in producing areas of showers and scattered thunderstorms Today over Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. A strong southwesterly low level jet of 30-45 knots was found across our area Today ahead of this weather system which is helping to bring strong warming into our area Today. Dangerous lightning strikes and brief heavy downpours have occurred over parts of the area Today in the stronger storms. A wide range in high temperatures were observed across our area Today with temperatures ranging from the 30s and 40s near Lake Superior to the 60s and 70s from Northwest Wisconsin into Northcentral Minnesota. 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM CDT ranged from +2 degrees C in extreme Northeast Minnesota to around +15 degrees down around the Walker/Brainerd areas. Winds across the area were out of the south or east Today at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts.

The heaviest rainfall so far Today according to doppler radar rainfall estimates have been across Northern-Northeast Minnesota...Generally across Itasca...Central-Southern St. Louis...into Southern Lake County where rainfall totals of one half inch to 1.50" fell Today...Some of these totals are probably a bit overdone due to some radar contamination, but there likely was some heavier pockets of rain that fell across parts of the area Today. Another axis of higher QPF was noted over Northeast Douglas...Northern Bayfield...Northern Ashland...and Northern Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin with rain totals per doppler radar rainfall estimates ranging from one half inch to around 1.25".

Note: There were some reports of mixed precipitation across Northeast Minnesota at times Today per hourly surface observation reports...

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Northwest H5 flow continued across the Upper Midwest Today with a strong upper level low centered over Central Quebec while a new disturbance spreads south-east out of Western Ontario-Southern Manitoba. An area of 60-90 meter 12 hour H5 height falls were noted This Afternoon per RUC model analysis near the disturbance over Manitoba.

(Tonight)

The low analyzed around the Fargo-Moorhead area This Afternoon will continue to move east-southeast This Evening and will exit to our area to the south-east later Tonight. A cold front attached to this low will swing southeast through Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Evening. A brief rise in instability and moisture will move into Cass/Crow Wing and Aitkin Counties in Minnesota before 9 PM Tonight with CAPES rising to around 500 j/kg with LI'S around zero to -2 degrees C along with Lapse Rates around 7.0 c/km... 0-6 KM Bulk Shear of 50-60 knots with H85 winds from the SW at 30-40 knots combined with H5 winds from the NW around 40-50 knots will be found across those areas I mentioned above through mid-Evening. Dewpoints will climb into the 40s to low 50s through mid-Evening while PWS increase to 1.00"-1.20"... An area of severe thunderstorms did erupt around 4 PM Today across Crow Wing County in Eastcentral Minnesota on the nose of the higher instability currently in Westcentral Minnesota. These storms were moving across Aitkin County as of 515 PM CDT but were decreasing rather quickly as they had farther south-east. A couple more thunderstorms which could be strong to possibly severe may develop through 9 PM CDT Tonight across Crow Wing/Southern Cass/and Aitkin Counties in Northcentral-Eastcentral Minnesota with hail and high winds being the primary hazards. The rest of the area could see scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms This Evening. By later Tonight any lingering shower risk should be confined to Northwestern Wisconsin. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies Tonight with lows in the 30s and 40s. Winds will be out of the south, east, or north-northwest at 10-20 mph.

(Monday and Monday Night)

A northwest flow aloft will continue across our area during this period with one system exiting to our south-east while a new disturbance takes shape to our northwest. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with a few showers possible at times mainly across Northern Minnesota. Highs on Monday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Monday Night mainly in the 40s. Winds will be out of the north, northeast, or northwest at 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

Monday's disturbance will continue to track across our area on Tuesday with a possibility for a couple of showers...Then a rather strong area of high pressure will build into the Upper Midwest as this disturbance departs by Tuesday Night and Wednesday. This high will then settle east making way for another cold frontal passage which looks to occur sometime between Thursday or Friday. A few showers or thunderstorms may develop along and ahead of this front later this week depending on the quality of moisture and instability. High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Tuesday Night in the 30s and 40s with some 20s possible in Northeast Minnesota. Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 30s and 40s. A significant push of cool air may then push into the Upper Midwest toward Friday or next weekend...But the forecast models Today are not in the best agreement as we approach later this week and next weekend.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm ending before 10 PM...Mostly cloudy skies. Low 35 to 40. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph...Becoming northeast.

.Monday... Partly to mostly cloudy. High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday... Variable cloudiness. High 60 to 65.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 65 to 70.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 68 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 45 degrees

Tim

Saturday, May 30, 2009

5/30/09: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 2:45 PM CDT, Saturday, May 30th, 2009

Here are the local storm reports from Friday, May 29th, 2009. Data provided by the National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota.

Askov MN (Pine County) 0.75" diameter hail at 450 PM CDT

Buhl MN (St. Louis County) 1.00" diameter hail at 705 PM CDT (Quarter to dime size hail)

Cherry MN (St. Louis County) 0.75" diameter hail at 710 PM CDT

Following headlines issued by the National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota.

*Freeze Warning* in effect from Midnight CDT Tonight until 7 AM CDT Sunday for parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Counties included:

Central and Northern St. Louis MN...Northern Lake MN...Northern Cook MN...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Iron WI...Sawyer WI...and Price WI.

High pressure will move into the region Tonight which will result in diminishing winds and mainly clear skies. An unusually cold and dry airmass will allow temperatures to fall into the 20s to low 30s in the warning area Overnight Tonight. Take the necessary precautions to protect plant life.

A freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

*Frost Advisory* in effect from Midnight CDT Tonight until 7 AM CDT Sunday for parts of Northcentral...Northeast...and Eastcentral Minnesota...and parts of Northwest Wisconsin.

Counties included:

Koochiching MN...Itasca MN...Northern Cass MN...Aitkin MN...Pine MN...Carlton MN...Southern St. Louis MN... Douglas WI...Burnett WI...and Washburn WI...

High pressure will move into the region Tonight which will result in mainly clear skies and diminishing winds. An unusually cold and dry airmass will allow temperatures to fall into the lower to middle 30s across the advisory area Overnight Tonight. These weather conditions will result in areas of frost Overnight. Take the necessary precautions to protect plant life.

A frost advisory means frost is likely. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

High pressure of 1016 mb was centered along the Southern North Dakota-Northern South Dakota state line as of mid-Afternoon while low pressure of 1000 mb heads into Eastern Canada. Cold advection and gusty northwesterly winds occurred across our area Today between those two features. High temperatures were in the 50s and 60s for most areas Today with the northwest winds blowing at 15 to around 30 mph. 850 mb temperatures as of 2 PM CDT ranged from +1 to +5 degrees C across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with very cold H85 temps of -2 to -10 degrees C lurking just to our north-northeast This Afternoon. Meanwhile off to our west from the Central Dakotas through the Northern Rockies into Southern Alberta and Southern Saskatchewan it's a whole different story as another bubble of very warm air with H85 temps of +12 to +20 degrees C were found This Afternoon with surface temps soaring through the 80s across the Northern Rockies Today. Also of note Today is the extremely dry airmass in place across our area as seen by the dewpoints which were only in the teens and 20s This Afternoon with PWS of just 0.20"-0.30"!

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Northwesterly flow aloft was in place once again Today across the Upper Midwest with an unusually strong (522 meter) H5 low tracking south-east across Central Ontario Province. Impressive 120-180 meter 12 hour H5 height falls were noted This Afternoon near this upper low per RUC model analysis.

(Tonight)

A chilly night is on tap as high pressure and very dry air combined with diminishing winds allow low temperatures to nose dive through the 20s and 30s for most areas. Widespread frost and a possible killing freeze is expected over most of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin by Morning. Northwest winds at 10-25 mph through mid-Evening will decrease to under 15 mph Overnight with winds becoming more variable in direction later Tonight.

(Sunday and Sunday Night)

High pressure will be shifting east out of our area on Sunday which will make way for an area of low pressure which was currently over the Southwest half of Saskatchewan. This low is forecast to drop south-east into the Upper Midwest by Sunday Afternoon and Evening. A warm front attached to this low will be lifting north-east and should make it toward the southern parts of our area Sunday Afternoon and early Evening before the low departs to the southeast later Sunday Night which will drag the warm front with it.

Strong warm advection will spread southwest to east-northeast across most of our area on Sunday out ahead of this low and warm front with a 30-45 knot low level jet persisting through the day. Moisture will also increase on Sunday but since our airmass is so dry at the moment I have a feeling that the models are overdoing the moisture return across our area come Sunday Afternoon-Evening. The models Today show dewpoints climbing into the upper 40s to low and mid 50s across most of our area by Sunday Afternoon...Keep in mind that our dews as of This Afternoon were only in the teens and 20s. PWS of .30"-.40" are forecast to rise to .75"-1.00" by Sunday Afternoon. Again I believe the models are too aggressive in bringing these higher dews up into our area on Sunday. Dewpoints climbing into the 40s seem somewhat more achievable than the 50s. The combination of the warm advection and moisture advection running into the very dry/cool air left behind from Today's area of high pressure will likely give way to quite a bit of cloudiness across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Sunday with scattered showers expected to develop as well.

There's still a chance for some thunderstorms too from Sunday Afternoon into Sunday Evening...mainly from Crow Wing...Aitkin...and Pine Counties in Minnesota and along and south of a line from Siren to Spooner to Hayward Wisconsin. Severe weather should remain west and south of our local area though the way it looks now. But will have to keep an eye on those areas I mentioned above since shear will be running high but the lack of sufficient moisture and instability this far north should keep these storms below severe limits the way it looks now.

By Sunday Night some lingering showers are possible across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with an isolated thunder threat persisting at least into Sunday Evening...mainly over Northwest Wisconsin.

Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with highs on Sunday in the 40s and 50s near Lake Superior as well as in far Northern Minnesota with 60s and 70s expected over western and southern parts of our area. It's possible that some locations in the Arrowhead of Minnesota won't get out of the 30s on Sunday. Lows Sunday Night will be mainly in the 40s. Look for south or east winds on Sunday at 10-25 mph with south, north, or northwest winds Sunday Night at 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

It appears that will have quiet weather across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Monday through Wednesday of this coming week as high pressure builds back into our local area. Will have to keep an eye on Monday Night and Tuesday Night for a scattered frost threat once again, but this will hinge upon wind speeds and the amount of clouds that could be overhead during those times. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night in the 30s and 40s. Looks like we could warm up rather nicely on Thursday before another shot of what looks to be some unusually cool temperatures spreads back into the Upper Midwest later next week behind a cold front which looks to pass through sometime Thursday or early Friday. Again timing of all this could change since the flow aloft will continue to be out of the northwest through next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*Frost Advisory* in effect from Midnight CDT Tonight until 7 AM CDT Sunday.

.Tonight... Clear and cold. Areas of frost developing Overnight. Low 30 to 35. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph decreasing to under 12 mph and becoming variable Overnight.

.Sunday... Becoming mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 50 to 55 but in the 40s near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Sunday Night... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind becoming north at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 37 to 42.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 65 to 70.

Normal High Temperature Today 68 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 44 degrees

Tim

Friday, May 29, 2009

5/29/09: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 2:59 PM CDT, Friday, May 29th, 2009

Following headlines issued by the National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota:

*Freeze Watch* in effect late Saturday Night for parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin...

Counties included:

Central and Northern St. Louis MN...Northern Lake MN...Northern Cook MN...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Iron WI...Sawyer WI...and Price WI...

High pressure will build into our area Saturday Night this combined with diminishing winds will result in a rapid drop in temperatures across parts of the area late Saturday Night. Low temperatures are forecast to reach or fall below 32 degrees which could result in frost and a hard freeze over portions of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin...away from Lake Superior.

A freeze watch means sub-freezing temperatures are possible. These conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies were found across our local area Today with high temperatures somewhat cooler compared to Thursday but still not too bad for late May. Highs Today were generally in the 60s to low 70s but some locales in Northern Minnesota dropped into the 50s at times This Afternoon as a few spotty rain showers have been tracking east-southeast across those areas. Winds Today were out of the southwest or northwest around 10-20 mph. Surface map This Afternoon is rather messy with a developing surface trough/cold front across Northwest Minnesota while an area of high pressure of 1016 mb begins to shift south-east of our local area.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Northwest H5 flow was in place across the Upper Midwest Today with a ridge of high pressure covering the Western U.S. while an upper level low continues to spin around over the Northern Manitoba/Hudson Bay area. A fairly potent disturbance rotating around that low was dropping south-east through Southern Manitoba This Afternoon with a decent area of 2 mb/2 hour pressure falls noted as of mid-Afternoon over Northwestern Minnesota ahead of this feature.

(Tonight)

The surface trough and cold front currently developing in Northwest Minnesota will drop southeast across our area This Evening with the boundaries then exiting to our south-southeast Overnight. The atmosphere along and ahead of this system will be characterized by dewpoints in the 30s and 40s with PWS around 0.50". CAPES through the Evening hours will range from 250-750 j/kg with LI'S of zero to around -3 degrees C. Lapse Rates will range from 7.0-9.0 c/km. This combined with some lift provided by the disturbance dropping southeast out of Southern Manitoba should cause showers and thunderstorms to become somewhat more numerous during the Evening hours across Northcentral/Northeast/and Eastcentral Minnesota with the threat for precipitation ending across Minnesota between 10PM-Midnight...but a risk for a few showers or isolated thunderstorms should continue until around 2-3 AM across parts of Northwestern Wisconsin. A couple of the storms through 10 PM could become quite strong...possibly even reach severe levels since we do have strong shear of 40-60 knots in place along with fast NW winds aloft of 45-65 knots. Also the upper level temperatures are rather chilly with readings mainly in the 20s below zero C so this could lead to the development of some hail generally around one quarter to one half inch in diameter along with gusty winds up to 40 mph. Locally heavy downpours and dangerous lightning will also occur in any thunderstorm that develops This Evening. Storm movement should be mainly toward the southeast or east-southeast. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies Tonight with lows in the 40s with some 30s possible North. Winds will be out of the south, southwest, or northwest at 10-20 mph.

(Saturday and Saturday Night)

High pressure will build into our area during this period which will result in a rather breezy day on Saturday with northwest winds of 15-30 mph. Look for partly cloudy-mostly sunny skies with daytime highs in the 50s and 60s. Clear-partly cloudy skies will continue Saturday Night with lows in the 30s and 40s but some 20s are possible in Northeast Minnesota. Scattered frost could develop later Tomorrow Night over parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin away from Lake Superior. Winds Tomorrow Night will decrease to 5-15 mph while shifting from the northwest to the east-southeast.

(Extended Forecast)

High pressure will shift east out of our area on Sunday while an area of low pressure moves in from the Northern Plains. A cold front attached to this low will drop southeast through our area by Sunday Night while a warm front also connected to this low attempts to lift north-east into southern parts of our area Sunday Afternoon-Evening. Looks like will see some showers around Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Sunday and Sunday Night with any thunderstorm activity being confined to areas along and south of a Walker to Duluth to Bayfield line Sunday Afternoon and Sunday Evening. Although I think the better threat may end up being toward Crow Wing County near the Brainerd/Fort Ripley areas. Doesn't appear that any severe weather would affect our local area later this weekend...That threat should remain over Westcentral through the Southern half of Minnesota the way it looks now. Look for partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies on Sunday with highs ranging from the 40s and 50s near Lake Superior and across Northern Minnesota to the 60s and 70s from Walker to Brainerd toward Hinckley and Pine City and across most of Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 40s and 50s with partly-mostly cloudy skies with a lingering threat for some showers...with thunderstorms still possible across Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota...especially Sunday Evening. The early to mid part of next week finds strong high pressure building back into our area while an active frontal boundary sets up to our south. Looks dry from Monday through Wednesday of next week for our area with near to below normal temperatures expected.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Variable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible before Midnight. Low 40 to 45. Wind becoming southwest at 10 to 15 mph then shifting back to the northwest at 10 to 20 mph Overnight. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday... Breezy. Mostly sunny. High 60 to 65 Inland and 65 to 70 near Lake Superior. Wind northwest at 15 to 30 mph.

.Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 35 to 40. Wind northwest decreasing to 10 to 20 mph during the Evening. Wind becoming variable under 10 mph Overnight.

.Sunday... Becoming mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 37 to 42.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65.

Normal High Temperature Today 68 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 44 degrees

Tim

Thursday, May 28, 2009

5/28/09: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:21 PM CDT, Thursday, May 28th, 2009

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

After a few days of clouds and rather cool temperatures...Today featured a return to gorgeous Spring weather across our area with plenty of sunshine and high temperatures mainly in the 70s with a few locations nearing 80 degrees This Afternoon! 850 mb temperatures as of 5 PM CDT ranged from +10 to +12 degrees C across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Weather map late This Afternoon features a 1004 mb low centered over Lake Huron with a weak cold front passing southeast through Northeast-Eastcentral Minnesota.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

An H5 ridge covered the Western U.S. with a fast west-northwest upper level flow now beginning to develop across the Northern Plains as the upper trough which was over the Great Lakes on Wednesday heads toward Eastern Canada and is replaced with another H5 low which was centered over Western Hudson Bay/Northern Manitoba Today 12 hour 500 mb height falls of 90 meters were located just north of Minnesota Today to the south-southeast of this upper low. A couple of disturbances are rotating around this upper low and those features will be affecting our weather to some extent through Friday Night.

(Tonight)

Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies with lows generally in the 40s but some 30s are possible in the traditional cold spots in Northern Minnesota. Winds Tonight will be out of the north or west around 5-15 mph. There is a possibility for a couple of showers Tonight, but nothing heavy or widespread is expected at this time.

(Friday and Friday Night)

Northwest flow aloft will continue during this period with colder upper level temperatures dropping south into our area as 500 mb temps fall into the 22 to 26 below zero C range. This combined with some lift provided by a disturbance which will drop south-east across our area could lead to the development of a few showers or thunderstorms Friday Afternoon and Friday Night across our area. Moisture will be a limiting factor as dewpoints will struggle to stay in the 40s while PWS will be around one half inch. CAPES should climb to 200-500 j/kg while LI'S fall to zero to around -2 degrees C. Lapse rates will be steep with values around 7.0 c/km while winds aloft will be quite strong with northwest 500 mb winds of 40-50 knots. 0-6 KM Bulk Shear per 15z SREF model from Today is forecast to be around 40-60 knots across our area with Effective Bulk Shear around 30 knots. A few of the storms that manage to develop around our area Friday Afternoon and Friday Evening could become quite strong with the cold air aloft and decent shear in place, but the lack of sufficient moisture should keep these few and far between. Gusty winds and hail along with some dangerous lightning will be possible in the stronger storms. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Tomorrow Night mainly in the 40s. Look for west, southwest, or northwest winds during this period at 10-20 mph while skies vary between partly sunny and mostly sunny on Friday and partly to mostly cloudy Friday Night.

(Extended Forecast)

Looks dry across the area Saturday and Saturday Night with high pressure moving into the Upper Midwest behind Tomorrow's disturbance. Expect partly cloudy-sunny skies on Saturday with high temperatures in the 50s and 60s with a few locales reaching the low 70s especially in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Saturday Night will be in the 30s and 40s but some 20s can't be ruled out in the Arrowhead of Minnesota. By Sunday and Sunday Night will see the area of high pressure pull off to our east which will cause warm and some moist advection to increase across our area on southerly winds as an area of low pressure...warm front...and cold front track across the Upper Midwest. Right now it doesn't appear that the actual warm front will make it this far north...But we will be affected by the cold front which looks to pass through Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Sunday Night. Look for more clouds across the area later this weekend compared to Saturday with the possibility for some showers as well with a threat for a few thunderstorms...mainly in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota. Still looks like any severe weather later this weekend would develop south of our area closer to the warm front and where a better push of warm/moist/unstable will be located per latest model guidance. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 50s and 60s with some 70s possible in the Cass/Crow Wing County areas. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph with gusts around 20 to 25 mph before 8 PM.

.Friday... Partly to mostly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible after 3 PM. High 66 to 71. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible during the Evening...Otherwise variable cloudiness. Low 40 to 45. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 65 to 70.

.Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 35 to 40.

.Sunday... Becoming mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 55 to 60. Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 45 to 50. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 63 to 68.

Normal High Temperature Today 67 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 44 degrees

Tim

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

5/27/09: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:22 PM CDT, Wednesday, May 27th, 2009

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Overcast skies continued over most of the area Today with some rain affecting Southern Sawyer...Price...and Southern parts of Ashland-Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin Today as low pressure of 1004 mb moves through Southern Lake Michigan. There are some hints that some partial clearing was starting to occur as of mid-Afternoon generally over far Northern Minnesota and also along the North Shore of Lake Superior as drier air starts to filter south into our area behind the Lake Michigan low. Temperatures This Afternoon were running in the 40s and 50s with 3 PM 850 mb temperatures of +4 to +6 degrees C across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Winds Today were out of the north or east at 10-20 mph.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Shortwave trough continues to lift northeast into the Great Lakes This Afternoon with the deformation type rain area affecting Southcentral Minnesota into Northcentral Wisconsin Today on the north and northwest side of the surface and H5 lows.

(Tonight)

Mostly cloudy skies should prevail through the night across Northwest Wisconsin with areas of rain continuing at least before Midnight from Sawyer into Price and Iron Counties as low pressure continues to lift slowly toward the north-east into the Eastern Great Lakes. Look for some partial clearing over Northeast Minnesota during the night as high pressure builds east out of the Northern Plains. Lows Tonight will be in the 40s but some 30s are possible across Northern Minnesota where some clearing should occur Tonight. Winds will be out of the north, east, or southwest around 15 mph or less.

(Thursday and Thursday Night)

Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies during this period with milder high temperatures expected on Thursday as we should see high temperatures reach the 60s and 70s along with northwest or west winds at 10-20 mph. We will see a cold front drop southeast across our area during this period and there is a chance that some showers could develop along and north of this cold front by Thursday Night...mainly affecting Northcentral areas of Minnesota. Lows Tomorrow Night will be mainly in the 40s with northwest or west winds continuing around 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

Some changes continue to take place during the extended portion of the forecast. Looks like we could see a few showers or thunderstorms develop over parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Friday and Friday Night as a northwest flow aloft combined with colder H5 temperatures falling into the -20s below zero combine with some surface warming and a surface trough and upper disturbance to possibly kick off some isolated to scattered convection across our local area. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies Friday and Friday Night with highs in the 60s to around 70 degrees with lows in the 30s and 40s. A stronger push of cool air then looks to settle south into our area this weekend as the disturbance affecting our weather on Friday exits to our south and east and grabs hold of some pretty chilly air which will be gathering over Central Canada later this week. It does look dry though for Saturday and Saturday Night with highs in the 50s and 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s...but some 20s and areas of frost could occur over parts of Northern Minnesota Saturday Night as high pressure moves overhead. This high will then shift east by Sunday with low pressure approaching from the west. Sunday could end up being a cool/overcast day as strong warm air advection to our west and southwest tries to build northeast into our area where much cooler and drier air will be found. This whole process could also lead to some rain showers over parts of our area later this weekend...but right now it doesn't appear will be dealing with much if any thunderstorm activity this far north.

Note: Present indications per long range forecast models indicate that June will start on the coolish side over the Upper Midwest with another possible frost threat sometime early next week if current model projections come true.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy with some clearing developing. Low 37 to 43. Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph becoming north to northeast Overnight.

.Thursday... Partly to mostly sunny. Warmer. High 70 to 75. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50. Wind west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday... Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 65 to 70. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday Night... Variable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible during the Evening. Low 40 to 45. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65.

.Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 35 to 40.

.Sunday... Becoming mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 50 to 55. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 67 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 44 degrees

Tim

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

5/26/09: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:19 PM CDT, Tuesday, May 26th, 2009

Weather History

On this date in 1992... A record low temperature of 28 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Cloudy day with high temperatures generally in the 50s but there were some locales that stayed in the upper 40s while a few others climbed into the low 60s. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM CDT ranged from +6 to +10 degrees C across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Winds were generally from the south, east, or north around 15 mph or less. Rain was widespread last night across Northcentral Minnesota with rainfall estimates per Duluth Doppler Radar showing anywhere from 0.40"-1.75" of rain over the past 24 hours over Northern Cass...Northern Itasca...most of Koochiching...into Northern St. Louis Counties...The heaviest area of rain fell over Southeast Koochiching into Northwest St. Louis County...North of a line from Effie and Togo to Gheen and Ely... A seperate area of showers has been affecting the Eastern half of Sawyer through Price and Southern parts of Ashland-Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin Today. The remainder of the area has seen little if any rain Today despite an atmosphere loaded with moisture with PWS of 1.00"1.30" in place as of 3 PM Today over most of our area. Surface map as of 3 PM CDT shows an area of low pressure of 1004 mb centered over far Northern Missouri with a 1012 mb low centered over Northeast Minnesota. A cold front attached to this low was tracking east through Central Minnesota This Afternoon.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Current H5 pattern certainly doesn't resemble a May pattern with all the strong winds aloft confined to Canada and weak steering winds in place across the U.S. Main feature of interest is the shortwave trough lifting north-east across the Central Plains Today.

(Tonight)

Mostly cloudy skies should continue across our area with areas of rain showers and patchy drizzle as low pressure and a cold front continue to track east through our area. Lows will be in the 40s with some 50s possible in Northwest Wisconsin. Winds will be out of the south, north, or east around 20 mph or less.

(Wednesday and Wednesday Night)

Some rain showers could linger at times on Wednesday across Northwest Wisconsin as the system currently over the Plains heads northeast into the Great Lakes. The heavier rain however looks like it will stay just south-southeast of our immediate area, but some showers could affect parts of Northwest Wisconsin Tomorrow. Northeast Minnesota should be dry Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with dry conditions returning to Northwest Wisconsin Tomorrow Night as well. Look for partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies on Wednesday with partly-mostly cloudy skies Wednesday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 40s, 50s, and 60s with lows Tomorrow Night generally in the 40s. Winds Tomorrow will be out of the north or east at 10-20 mph with north, east, or southwest winds around 15 mph or less by Wednesday Night.

(Extended Forecast)

Thursday should see high temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s across our area as a cold front drops southeast through Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Thursday Afternoon into Thursday Evening. Westerly winds will develop ahead of this cold front and this combined with some sunshine should help moderate temperatures across our area. Still looks like this front will come through mainly dry...however an isolated shower or thunderstorm could develop in Northeast Minnesota Thursday Afternoon as the front moves through. The models Today show dewpoints climbing to around 50 degrees with CAPES around 250-500 j/kg across Northeast Minnesota Thursday Afternoon and this could be enough to generate spotty showers/thunderstorms along the cold front at that time. Low temperatures Thursday Night will be in the 40s and 50s with partly-mostly cloudy skies expected. Friday and Friday Night look mainly dry at the moment with Thursday's cold front pushing south out of our area while high pressure builds in from the northwest. Highs on Friday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Friday Night mainly in the 40s. Seeing some slight changes Today with the forecast models for this coming weekend. Right now it appears that Saturday and most of Saturday Night will be dry and somewhat cooler with the next shot for showers or thunderstorms coming on Sunday as low pressure and it's warm front/cold front track through the Upper Midwest. Could be dealing with some severe weather over portions of the Upper Midwest later this weekend depending on how everything sets up...One thing that seems pretty certain right now is that the stronger jet stream winds will begin to settle back into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest later this week through this weekend...So if we can get enough moisture/warmth/instability to develop as this low pressure system passes through then we could be looking at a severe weather risk later this weekend thanks to the favorable winds aloft and shear in place across the Upper Midwest.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Overcast. Scattered showers possible. Low 40 to 45. Wind northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Partly sunny. High 56 to 61 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Becoming partly cloudy. Low 42 to 47. Wind north at 5 to 15 mph becoming west.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 65 to 70.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 62 to 67.

Normal High Temperature Today 67 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 43 degrees

Tim

Monday, May 25, 2009

5/25/09: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 2:24 PM CDT, Monday, May 25th, 2009

Note: Today marks the one year anniversary of the Hugo Minnesota tornado that struck on May 25th, 2008. Numerous supercells with large hail and tornadoes developed during the Afternoon-Evening hours of Sunday, May 25th, 2008 generally along the Interstate 94 corridor in Central and Eastcentral Minnesota as an area of low pressure and warm front moved from Western Minnesota to Eastern Minnesota.

Weather History:

On this date in 1990... A record low temperature of 30 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

A mix bag of weather on this Memorial Day 2009 with overcast skies and occasional rain affecting far Northern Minnesota...generally over the counties of Koochiching...Northern St. Louis and Western-Northern Itasca... The remainder of the area was dry Today with more sunshine found in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota with mostly cloudy skies across the rest of the area. Highs Today were in the 50s and 60s with some 70s in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota while cooler 40s were found from Superior and Downtown Duluth up along the North Shore of Lake Superior. 850 mb temperatures as of 2 PM CDT ranged from +6 to +10 degrees C across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Winds Today were out of the south or east at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts. Surface map as of mid-Afternoon featured a 1006 mb low moving toward Southeast North Dakota with a warm front attached to this low centered over the Eastern Dakotas with a cold front moving across the Central Dakotas. High pressure of 1030 mb was centered over the Northeast Ontario/Southern Hudson Bay Canada area.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

A broad area of disturbed weather covered much of the Rockies/Plains/Northern Plains/parts of the Upper Midwest Today. An H5 low continues to lift north out of Arkansas into Missouri This Afternoon with moisture associated with this upper low spreading west-north through Southeast Minnesota and Central-Southern Wisconsin Today. A seperate disturbance was heading east out of Central Montana Today while another disturbance churns through the Southwest part of the U.S. Plenty of moisture was in place for precipitation Today out ahead of those two features.

(Tonight)

Low pressure will track toward Western Minnesota with it's warm front lifting east-northeast toward Central Minnesota during the night. 30-45 knot low level jet will continue Tonight north of the low/warm front which will cause warm advection and deeper moisture to spread into Northcentral Minnesota through the night. Rain will continue to fall Tonight across Northcentral Minnesota with locally heavy downpours and isolated thunderstorms possible as well...Mainly over Cass...Crow Wing...Itasca...and Koochiching Counties... Some showers could also spread toward Northeast-Eastcentral Minnesota later Tonight with mainly dry conditions continuing across Northwest Wisconsin. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies Tonight with lows in the 40s and 50s. Winds will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph.

(Tuesday and Tuesday Night)

Low pressure will be tracking through our area during this period along with it's warm front and trough. Meanwhile the upper low currently over Arkansas will continue to lift north and will reach the Eastern Iowa/Western Illinois vicinity. Looks like most of the area will see some rain on Tuesday with mostly cloudy skies and highs in the 50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior. The rain threat should start to diminish Tuesday Night as the system starts to pull away to the south-east. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecast by Tuesday Night with lows in the 30s and 40s. Winds will be out of the south, east, or north on Tuesday around 10-20 mph with north or east winds Tuesday Night at 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

Looks dry across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Wednesday and Thursday with the next cold frontal passage occurring on Thursday the way it looks now...however at this time it doesn't look like will see any precipitation occur with this front. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Wednesday Night in the 30s and 40s. High temps Thursday should rebound into the 60s and 70s as west or southwest winds occur out ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front. Lows Thursday Night will drop into the 40s. Next shot for a few showers or thunderstorms could come this weekend...Instability looks decent around our area and winds aloft look favorable for something to happen...The problems continue to be a lack of moisture that the models are generating this far out...But these numbers could increase in the coming days. Could see widespread 70s or even 80s over parts of our area this weekend...Most likely on Saturday depending of course on the timing of this whole low pressure system and associated warm front and cold front.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Considerable cloudiness. Showers possible Overnight. Low 42 to 47. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday... Mostly cloudy. Showers... High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

.Tuesday Night... Considerable cloudiness. Low 40 to 45. Wind northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Partly sunny. High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 42 to 47.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 65 to 70.

Normal High Temperature Today 67 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 43 degrees

Tim

Sunday, May 24, 2009

5/24/09: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:26 PM CDT, Sunday, May 24th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 1989... 1.81" of rain fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

On this date in 2002... A trace of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Another pleasant Spring day across the area with some passing high clouds at times, but for the most part skies were sunny with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s with cooler 40s and 50s near Lake Superior. 850 mb temperatures as of 5 PM CDT were right around +8 degrees C across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Winds Today were generally from the north or east around 5-15 mph. Surface map late This Afternoon featured an area of low pressure of 1006 mb centered over Eastern Wyoming with a warm front attached to this low stretching from Southeast Wyoming to Northern Kansas. High pressure of 1022 mb was beginning to shift east out of our area This Afternoon while low pressure of 1006 mb continues it's track toward the north-northwest through Eastern Arkansas.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

An H5 low was lifting north-west across Arkansas while an upper level trough was heads east through the Western U.S. A west-northwest upper level flow continued around the Upper Midwest Today between these two features.

(Tonight)

Another quiet night expected with high pressure continuing to exit slowly off to our east. Look for clear-partly cloudy skies with lows in the 30s and 40s. Winds will be out of the south or east at 5-15 mph.

(Monday and Monday Night)

The greatest rain chances will be confined to Northcentral Minnesota...Generally from Cass...Itasca...into the Northern half of St. Louis Counties...then extending northwest and northeast from that line. The rain threat will be greatest in the west-northwest portions of that area on Monday with the rain chances increasing across that entire area by Monday Night. Low pressure over the Northern Rockies will head into the Northern Plains during this period while a 30-45 knot low level jet brings moisture up and over a warm front which will move toward Southern Minnesota while an inverted trough develops across Northern-Western Minnesota. The set-up looks pretty favorable for some heavy rainfall totals from Westcentral into Northcentral Minnesota during this period with some localized flooding possibly developing by later Monday Night... Look for partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies across the area on Monday with mostly cloudy skies expected Monday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s and 60s with some 70s possible in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s and 50s. It will be cooler near Lake Superior though thanks to onshore winds. Winds during this period will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

Low pressure with it's inverted trough will continue to push east across the Upper Midwest on Tuesday...Looks like the entire area could see some rain on Tuesday but exact amounts are difficult to determine at this time. This system will exit slowly to our east by mid-week which will cause decreasing chances for rain over our area by Tuesday Night and Wednesday. Looks like will see another cold frontal passage take place sometime Wednesday Night or Thursday but no precipitation is expected with this front. High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night mainly in the 40s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Memorial Day... Partly to mostly cloudy. High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 45 to 50. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 55 to 60. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday Night... Considerable cloudiness. Low 40 to 45.

.Wednesday... Partly sunny. High 61 to 67.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 42 to 47.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 65 to 70.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 67 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 43 degrees

Tim

Saturday, May 23, 2009

5/23/09: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 2:29 PM CDT, Saturday, May 23rd, 2009

30 Day Outlook for June 2009 issued by the Climate Prediction Center on May 21st, 2009:

For Duluth:

Temperatures: Equal chances of above normal, normal, or below normal temperatures.

Precipitation: Equal chances of above normal, normal, or below normal precipitation.

90 Day Outlook for June 2009 through August 2009 issued by the Climate Prediction Center on May 21st, 2009:

For Duluth:

Temperatures: 33% chance of having Below Normal Temperatures.

Precipitation: Equal chances of above normal, normal, or below normal precipitation.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

High pressure of 1024 mb was centered over Central North Dakota as of mid-Afternoon while the cold front which moved through our area last night centers itself over Central Wisconsin down into Central Iowa. An area of clouds which covered parts of Northern Minnesota during the Morning hours has since burned off leaving in it's wake plenty of sunshine across the area This Afternoon with temperatures in the 50s and 60s for most areas. 850 mb temperatures as of 2 PM CDT ranged from +2 to +6 degrees C across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Winds were generally from the north, northwest, or east Today around 15 mph or less.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

West-Northwest H5 flow was present across the Upper Midwest Today. A disturbance continues to spin over West Texas back through New Mexico and Arizona Today while another disturbance heads northwest across Alabama and Mississippi. Plenty of moisture is pooling up Today from Southern Minnesota through the Plains with Afternoon PWS of 1.00"-1.50" with dewpoints up into the 50s and 60s. Some of this deeper moisture will eventually make it into the Upper Midwest by Monday.

(Tonight)

High pressure will move into our area from Central North Dakota. Result from this will be for clear-partly cloudy skies along with light winds and cool Overnight low temperatures in the 30s and 40s but some 20s are possible in the traditional cold spots across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Areas of frost are possible later Tonight in spots that see surface temperatures drop to 32 degrees or lower. Winds will be variable in direction under 10 mph.

(Sunday and Sunday Night)

High pressure will begin to push east of our area during this period with a southeast flow developing on the back side of this high. Looks dry Sunday and Sunday Night with mostly sunny-partly cloudy skies forecast on Sunday and partly to mostly cloudy skies Sunday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with 40s and 50s near Lake Superior. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s and 50s with some 30s possible near Lake Superior. Wind speeds will vary between 10-25 mph during this period.

(Extended Forecast)

The area of disturbed weather across the Rockies and Southwest U.S. will finally make into the Upper Midwest by Monday and Tuesday with the system currently over the Southeast U.S. continuing to lift north-northwest into Monday and Tuesday. The combination of both these systems along with increasing amounts of moisture should lead to the development of some rain across our area Monday and Tuesday. Some of the rain could be heavy at times...especially across Northern Minnesota the way it looks now. Doesn't appear will be seeing much in the way of thunderstorm activity associated with this system, but some rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out in the heavier showers that do develop. There continues to be some model disagreement Today pertaining to where exactly the heavier more steady rains develop early next week so some changes to the forecast could occur over the next day or so. Looks like this system will depart by mid-week...then it appears we could see a pattern change take hold later next week or next weekend with a ridge re-developing out West and a trough in the East...This would put the Upper Midwest in a northwesterly flow regime if this pattern change takes place.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 30 to 35. Wind east around 10 mph.

.Sunday... Mostly sunny. High 62 to 67 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 42 to 47. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Memorial Day... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 57 to 62 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday Night... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 45 to 50. Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 55 to 60. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45.

.Wednesday... Partly sunny. High 61 to 67.

Normal High Temperature Today 66 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 43 degrees

Tim

Friday, May 22, 2009

5/22/09: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:11 PM CDT, Friday, May 22nd, 2009

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

High pressure of 1024 mb which brought a shot of cool-crisp temperatures to the area early Today has shifted into the Eastern Great Lakes This Afternoon while a weak area of low pressure of 1018 mb moves into Southeastern Manitoba Province. A cold front attached to this low was beginning to move into Northwest Minnesota as of mid-Afternoon. We saw partly to mostly sunny skies across the area Today with a couple of showers passing through far Northern areas of Minnesota. Highs Today were in the 60s and 70s with cooler 40s and 50s near Lake Superior. 3 PM 850 mb temperatures ranged from +5 to +9 degrees C across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Winds Today were out of the south, southwest, or east around 20 mph or less.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Westerly flow aloft was in place across the Upper Midwest Today while a shortwave trough digs south-east through Manitoba Province. A large area of mid-high level moisture continued Today per water vapor satellite imagery from the Southwest U.S. through the Central Rockies through the Central Plains and southern parts of the Upper Midwest.

(Tonight)

A cold front will continue to settle south-east through Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin while a seperate frontal boundary remains nearly stationary across Northern Iowa. Deeper moisture will remain tied up with that southern boundary Tonight with lesser moisture hooking up with the cold front passing through our local area. A few showers or isolated thunderstorms will continue This Evening mainly over Northern Minnesota. Then a few showers could push into parts of Northwest Wisconsin later Tonight. Otherwise it looks mainly dry across the area Tonight with partly-mostly cloudy skies. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s with south, southwest, or east winds turning north or northwest at 10-20 mph.

(Saturday and Saturday Night)

An area of high pressure will build into the Upper Midwest during this period which will result in partly cloudy-mostly sunny skies on Saturday and mostly clear skies Saturday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 30s and 40s. Winds will be out of the north, northwest, or east around 20 mph or less.

(Extended Forecast)

High pressure will remain in control of our weather for Sunday and Sunday Night as it starts to pull east away from our area. Highs on Sunday will be in the 60s and 70s with 40s and 50s near Lake Superior. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 40s and 50s. Still appears that our next shot for some rain will come early next week as low pressure approaches from the west. Where the heaviest rain band sets up remains uncertain this far out. Also remains uncertain if will see any thunderstorm activity develop around our area early next week with the NAVY-NOGAPS continuing to be more aggresive with the threat for storms around our area compared to most of the other models Today. High temperatures on Monday will be in the 50s and 60s with cooler temps near Lake Superior. Lows Monday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph becoming southwest This Evening...then becoming northwest to north late.

.Saturday... Mostly sunny. High 62 to 67 but it could be cooler near Lake Superior. Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 40 to 45. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Partly to mostly sunny. High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 42 to 47.

.Memorial Day... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 57 to 62 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday Night... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 45 to 50. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 66 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 42 degrees

Tim

Thursday, May 21, 2009

5/21/09: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:50 PM CDT, Thursday, May 21st, 2009

West Duluth Rainfall Total from Wednesday: Around 0.10"

*Record Event*

An all time record high temperature was established at Duluth, Minnesota on Wednesday, May 20th, 2009. The high temperature for the day was 88 degrees which broke the previous record high temperature of 87 degrees which was set in 1925.

Weather tidbits from Wednesday, May 20th, 2009:

Temperature increase of 54 degrees occurred at the Duluth Airport from a Morning low of 34 degrees to an Afternoon high of 88 degrees

One hour temperature increase from 77 degrees to 87 degrees occurred between 2 PM-3 PM at the Duluth Airport.

Temperature difference of over 40 degrees occurred between the Duluth Lift Bridge and the Duluth Airport. Temperatures ranged from 47 degrees at the Lift Bridge to 88 degrees at the Duluth Airport. Then a wind shift to the southwest sent temperatures soaring toward 90 degrees around 5 PM at the Duluth Lift Bridge.

A wind shift to the southwest occurred shortly after 5 PM at Sky Harbor (Park Point area) which caused the temperatures to go from 46 degrees to 87 degrees in a matter of 20 minutes. To put it in other words...The temperature jumped 41 degrees in 20 minutes!

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

High pressure of 1024 mb was centered near Bismarck North Dakota as of 4 PM Today with a cold front now located well to our south and east. We saw partly sunny to mostly sunny skies across our area Today with Morning sprinkles and rain showers over parts of Northwest Wisconsin. High temperatures Today were running about 20 degrees cooler compared to Wednesday...but the temperatures that were around Today are more typical for late May around our area. Highs Today were generally in the 60s to around 70 degrees with late Afternoon 850 mb temperatures of +3 to +7 degrees C... Winds were out of the northwest at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts.

Note: A wildfire or (possibly a planned burned by the DNR) seems to have started Today between Kimberly and McGregor Minnesota (Eastcentral parts of Aitkin County) a plume of smoke was being picked up by the Doppler Radar out of Duluth This Afternoon and there's also a hint of a thin smoke plume being picked up on the 1km high resolution visible satellite imagery This Afternoon in that same area. This smoke plume is moving southeast and is affecting the towns of Kimberly and East Lake and into Southwestern Carlton and Northwest Pine Counties in Eastern Minnesota late Today and is also affecting Highway 65 between McGregor and East Lake.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Flow aloft was generally zonal across the Upper Midwest with fast jet stream winds of 100-130 knots across Central Canada down to far Northern Minnesota per RUC model analysis This Afternoon. A nice plume of moisture extending from the Southwest U.S. through the Plains to the Central/Eastern Great Lakes was visible on water vapor satellite imagery This Afternoon while an upper level low was drifting north/west just off the Florida coast.

(Tonight)

Quiet weather conditions will be found across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with high pressure moving overhead. Look for clear-partly cloudy skies with lows in the 30s and 40s. Winds will be out of the northwest at 5-15 mph with some higher gusts early with winds turning to the south and east Overnight.

(Friday and Friday Night)

High pressure will exit to our east during this period while a cold front currently in Central Canada drops south while the cold front which moved here last night stalls out just south of Minnesota. Some moisture will get drawn north into our area Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night as winds turn southerly out ahead of that front to our north. Looks like we could see some showers develop Friday and Friday Night across our area with the better chances for some rain occurring in Northwest Wisconsin and far Northern Minnesota. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are expected during this period with highs Tomorrow in the 60s and 70s with 40s and 50s along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s and 40s. Look for south, southwest, or east winds on Friday with winds from the south or northwest by Friday Night. Wind speeds will generally be around or under 20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

High pressure builds back into our area this weekend which will result in generally quiet weather conditions with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s both Saturday and Sunday with lows in the 30s and 40s. It does appear that will see a lake breeze develop especially toward Sunday which would mean cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. Rain chances will then move into our area possibly by late Sunday Night...but more likely the early part of next week as a complex weather system takes shape across the Midwest/Northern Plains/and Upper Midwest. Will have to keep an eye on this system as there could be some severe weather associated with it especially if the last few runs per NAVY-NOGAPS model pans out. Other models show more of a rain event with perhaps isolated thunder mixed in, but no real threat for severe weather around our local area.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 38 to 43. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming variable late.

.Friday... Partly to mostly sunny. High 65 to 70 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night... Showers possible. Otherwise mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind southwest becoming north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday... Mostly sunny. High 60 to 65.

.Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 40 to 45.

.Sunday... Partly to mostly sunny. High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 42 to 47.

.Monday... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 57 to 62 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 66 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 42 degrees

Tim

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

5/20/09: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 2:46 PM CDT, Wednesday, May 20th, 2009

Note: The temperature jumped 10 degrees between 2PM and 3 PM Today at the Duluth Airport... Temperature went from 77 to 87 degrees in one hour as this heat blast moves in from Central Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Temperatures and winds are out of control for about 99% of the area Today as low pressure of 1002 mb heads into Western Minnesota as of 2 PM while a cold front connected to this low begins it's eastward track out of Northwest Minnesota and the Eastern Dakotas. The strong warm front which resulted in the development of elevated severe thunderstorms while surface temps were hovering in the 30s last night over the Arrowhead of Minnesota...north to Thunder Bay and around the Lake Nipigon areas in Southern Ontario has shifted north of the area as of mid-Afternoon. Result from this has been for the wind to shift to the south and southwest while wind speeds increased to 15-25 mph with gusts from 30 to 45 mph across Eastcentral Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin thanks in part to a potent 850 mb jet which was blowing in from the southwest at 40-55 knots across our local area This Afternoon. Widespread dust is being observed This Afternoon south of our area across Southcentral Minnesota up to Central Minnesota due to these intense south-southwest winds Today. The visibility at St. Cloud Minnesota was down to one mile at 1 PM Today due to the blowing dust! Temperatures across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin were in the 70s and 80s This Afternoon with some locales nearing 90 degrees in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +16 to +19 degrees C across our area. Dewpoints were mainly in the 40s to low 50s as of mid-Afternoon with PWS of 1.00"-1.10" across Northern Minnesota to 0.50"-0.90" across Northwest Wisconsin into Eastern-Northeast Minnesota. Skies across the local area were partly to mostly sunny Today.

Concerning the marine layer: As is often the case the denseness of Lake Superior is holding it's own Today even with howling S-SW winds up above us and a tremendous amount of heat advecting in from the southwest. The marine layer hasn't broken This Afternoon and as a result temperatures were holding in the 40s to low 50s from Superior to West Duluth and West End/East Duluth areas.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

An upper trough with 60-90 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls was pushing south-east through the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies Today with the eastern edge of these height falls spreading through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest This Afternoon.

(Tonight)

A cold front will be moving east-southeast and through our local area. Airmass along and ahead of this boundary will be characterized by CAPES of around 500-750 j/kg during the Evening hours along with Lapse Rates of 7.0-8.5 c/km and LI'S of zero to -3 degrees C. Dewpoints will hold in the 40s and 50s with 850 mb td's of +8 to +12 degrees C and PWS of 0.80"-1.10". Looks like will see a few showers and thunderstorms develop This Evening...Mainly affecting the counties of Koochiching...Itasca...Cass...Crow Wing and Northern St. Louis. There continues to be a very strong cap in place as of mid-Afternoon with H7 temperatures of +10 to +12 degrees C across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, it appears will see these temperatures cool off over the next couple hours which would allow for a few storms to develop. Winds aloft will be favorable for storm growth with 500 mb winds around 40 knots and 850 mb winds of 30-50 knots...0-6 KM Bulk Shear will range from 35-50 knots This Evening with Effective Bulk Shear around 30-40 knots...however a lack of real deep moisture and instability should keep any storm below severe levels...even though we have pretty favorable shear in place...Gusty winds to 40 mph and hail to one half inch in diameter can't be ruled out in the stronger storms should they occur during the Evening hours. By later Tonight the focus for a few showers or thunderstorms will shift into Eastcentral-Northeast Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin...But by that time the instability is forecast to be even less, so we could be looking at just some shower activity Overnight. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies Tonight with lows in the 40s and 50s with some 60s possible in Northwest Wisconsin. South or southwest winds at 10-20 mph with gusts of 30-45 mph early Tonight will become west or northwest at 10-20 mph as the cold front moves through.

(Thursday and Thursday Night)

Cold front will settle south and east of our area during this period with high pressure building into the Upper Midwest behind this boundary. There will be a risk for some lingering showers on Thursday across Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota with dry weather expected elsewhere. The entire area will be dry come Thursday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s with some 70s in Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s with some 30s possible in Northern Minnesota.

(Extended Forecast)

High pressure moves off to our east by Friday which will allow for an area of low pressure and it's trough/cold front to push southeast across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Friday Afternoon into Friday Night. This is a new feature on the forecast models Today and should it occur then we could be looking at a few showers across our area Friday and Friday Night with isolated thunderstorms possible as well. Highs Friday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Friday Night in the 30s and 40s. It looks dry Saturday and Saturday Night with high pressure building back into our area. Highs will be in the 60s with some 50s North. Lows Saturday Night will be in the 30s and 40s. The period from Sunday into early next week is a bit tricky with the NAVY/GEM-GLOBAL/ECM showing a greater risk for some rain across our local area especially by early next week. We could be seeing an interaction between a system currently over the Gulf Of Mexico and a cold front moving in from the west. The system over the Gulf could lift north and spread some of it's moisture back into our area while that cold front approaches from the west. Again timing is somewhat uncertain at this point, but right now it looks like if we did get some rain it would hold off until early next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Windy This Evening. Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible after 10 PM. Low 50 to 55. Wind south to southwest at 15 to 30 mph with gusts of 35 to 40 mph. Wind becoming west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph later This Evening. East winds at 5 to 15 mph closer to Lake Superior will become southwest at 15 to 25 mph This Evening...Then become west to northwest later This Evening. Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday... Cooler. Partly sunny. Showers possible mainly during the Morning. High 65 to 70. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 37 to 42. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday... Variable cloudiness. High 65 to 70.

.Friday Night... Showers possible early. Otherwise partly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 40 to 45.

.Sunday... Partly sunny. High 60 to 65.

Normal High Temperature Today 65 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 42 degrees

Tim

5/20/09: Red Flag Warning Information

Issued at 7:49 AM CDT, Wednesday, May 20th, 2009

Following headlines issued by the National Weather Service, Duluth, MN:

*Red Flag Warning* in effect from 10 AM CDT This Morning until 7 PM CDT This Evening for parts of Northcentral and Eastcentral Minnesota.

Counties included:

Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...and Pine

Warm temperatures...low relative humidites...dry fuels...and strong southerly winds will bring the potential for explosive fire weather conditions Today through early This Evening for Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...and Pine counties in Minnesota.

Tim

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

5/19/09: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:25 PM CDT, Tuesday, May 19th, 2009

From the National Weather Service in Duluth, MN:

*Fire Weather Watch* in effect from Wednesday Morning through Wednesday Evening for the following counties in Eastcentral and Northcentral Minnesota: Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...And Pine... Fire weather conditions will approach red flag warning Wednesday... Warm temperatures...low relative humidities...dry fuels...and strong south winds will bring the potential for explosive fire weather conditions to parts of the area for Wednesday.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

An amazing temperature spread Today across Minnesota as a potent warm front begins it's northward journey out of Southern Minnesota This Afternoon. Temperatures south of this boundary were in the 80s and 90s This Afternoon across Southern Minnesota with a few locales nearing 100 degrees with heat indices generally in the 90s with dewpoints mainly in the 50s while strong southwest or south winds were occurring at 10-25 mph with higher gusts. Across our local area it's a whole different story Today as we sit a good 150-200 miles or so north of the warm front which has resulted in much colder temperatures Today with highs only in the 40s and 50s with 30s hanging tough from Superior and Duluth and along the North Shore of Lake Superior. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM CDT Today ranged from +4 to +16 degrees C across our local area with an area of +20 to +28 degree C H85 temperatures sitting over Southcentral Minnesota back through South Dakota Today. Strong easterly winds were also occurring Today north of this warm front with wind speeds of 10-25 mph with gusts over 30 mph especially near Lake Superior. The air is also much drier across our local area Today due to the influence of a 1026 mb high which was moving into Eastern Ontario This Afternoon while low pressure of 998 mb was centered over Southern Montana as of 3 PM CDT. The aforementioned warm front as of mid-Afternoon stretched from Montevideo and Benson across Westcentral Minnesota toward the Twin Cities in Eastern Minnesota to around the Eau Claire and Wausau areas in Western and Central Wisconsin.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Seeing more of a westerly flow aloft across the Upper Midwest Today as a large H5 ridge covers the Plains while an upper level trough with impressive 120-150 meter 12 hour H5 height falls heads east across the Pacific Northwest. A very stout cap was advecting northeast off the Rockies and Plains into the Upper Midwest Today ahead of this upper trough with H7 temperatures This Afternoon of +10 to +14 degrees C over those areas.

(Tonight)

A strong warm front will surge north during the night as high pressure pulls farther into Eastern Canada while a strong area of low pressure heads into the Northern Plains. Look for a S-SW 850 mb jet to increase to 40-60 knots Overnight across our area which should aid in the northward movement of this warm front. A strong push of elevated instability and Theate-E air will also lift south to north across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight along and north of this warm frontal boundary. We've already seen spotty quick moving and highly elevated sprinkles and rain showers pass west to east-southeast across our area Today even without any real elevated instability in place, the activity Today has been caused by very strong frontogenesis across our area and very strong warm air advection... As instability increases Tonight and the low level jet strengthens it's certainly possibly that will see a few showers and thunderstorms during the night...especially over Lake Superior and back into Northcentral-Northeast Minnesota. Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies Tonight with temperatures holding steady or rising by Morning with 40s and 50s expected with some 60s in Northwest Wisconsin. Cooler 30s and 40s will continue near Lake Superior where some low clouds and fog could start to develop later in the night as the warm front moves closer to the area. Look for east or south winds at 10-25 mph Tonight with gusts of 30 to 40 mph also possible.

(Wednesday and Wednesday Night)

Warm front should be lifting through Northern Minnesota Tomorrow Morning with all of the area firmly under the capped warm sector of this weather system by Wednesday Afternoon-Evening as low pressure remains to our west-northwest and a cold front doesn't move into our area until late Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Night. Strong south to southwest winds from 15-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph will occur across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday with winds decreasing to 10-20 mph Wednesday Night while shifting from the south-southwest to the west and northwest as a cold front moves through. The air will be very capped out ahead of this cold front with H7 temperatures hovering around +10 to +12 degrees C on Wednesday so it will take some time for this cap to break... Present indications are that will see a few showers or thunderstorms develop along the cold front between 5PM-8PM on Wednesday over Northcentral Minnesota with this activity then spreading east through the remainder of Northeast Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin Wednesday Night. Severe weather doesn't look like a huge concern at this point, but winds aloft will be favorable along with decent amounts of instability with CAPES nearing 1000 j/kg by late Wednesday assuming dewpoints climb into the 50s along and ahead of the cold front so we could see a few stronger storms over parts of the area late Wednesday Afternoon through Wednesday Evening. High temperatures Tomorrow will be in the 70s and 80s and it's not out of the question that a few locales could push toward 90 degrees! Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s across Northern Minnesota.

Concerning the marine layer in Duluth-Superior: It's always very difficult to say when the wind shift will make it to Superior and Downtown Duluth especially in May...All forecast models have been very consistent in showing the winds shifting to the south and southwest by or before the Noon hour on Wednesday for locations below the hill in Duluth/Superior... Even though the models show this happening, there's still an outside chance that the expected wind shift could take much longer to occur... One thing that seems fairly certain is that the winds will shift first in Northwest Wisconsin including the city of Superior and then the wind shift will push west into the Downtown Duluth area. Again exact timing is very difficult...But it will probably occur in the 10AM-1PM time frame...sooner in the Superior area and later in the Downtown Duluth area. I'd be very surprised if the marine layer lingers into Wednesday Evening here in the city due to how strong of a wind will see both at the surface and aloft and with how much warm air will be moving into our local area on Wednesday.

(Extended Forecast)

Could see some lingering showers across Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota Thursday Morning...Then the rest of Thursday into Friday look pretty nice as high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest in wake of the cold front that will move through here Wednesday Night. High temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Thursday Night and Friday Night in the 30s and 40s with some 20s possible in far Northern Minnesota both nights. A sneak peak at the Memorial Day weekend features small rain chances especially toward Sunday...But forecast models are having some issues Today with the tracks and timing of possible disturbances or cold fronts that may or may not impact our area's weather from this weekend into early next week. Doesn't look like will see any big cold snaps this weekend with temperatures most likely sitting right around average for mid to late May.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Windy... Variable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Areas of low clouds and fog could develop late. Low 35 to 40. Wind east at 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Wednesday... Windy and turning very warm. Areas of low clouds and fog possible early. Then becoming partly cloudy. High 80 to 85 but cooler near Lake Superior through about Noon. Inland winds south to southeast becoming south to southwest at 15 to 30 mph. Winds east closer to Lake Superior...Becoming south to southwest during the Afternoon at 15 to 30 mph. Winds could occasionally gust to 35 to 40 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Variable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 50 to 55. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming west to northwest. Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. Cooler. High 65 to 70.

.Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 35 to 40.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 38 to 43.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65.

Normal High Temperature Today 65 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 41 degrees

Tim

Monday, May 18, 2009

5/18/09: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:11 PM CDT, Monday, May 18th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 1998... A record high temperature of 85 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Cold front is moving somewhat slower than expected but the net result hasn't been too drastic around our area Today. We saw partly-mostly sunny skies with very pleasant mid May temperatures which topped out in the 60s and 70s while strong south or southwest winds at 15-35 mph switched to the north and west across far Northern Minnesota This Afternoon as the cold front passed through those areas. Dewpoints are really having a tough time climbing ahead of this cold front Today with dews as of 3 PM pooling in the 40s to around 50 degrees along the surface front while PWS have been rising to 0.80" right along the surface front while 0.60"-0.70" readings were found across Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota This Afternoon. The actual position of the cold front as of mid-Afternoon was from Northern Minnesota near International Falls down toward Bemidji and was heading south-east with an area of 2 mb/2 hour pressure rises noted per RUC model analysis behind the front in Northwest Minnesota and Northeast North Dakota This Afternoon. This is another very strong cold front for the time of year with another pool of very cold air located across Central Canada Today where daytime highs were only in the 30s and 40s with 850 mb temperatures ranging from -2 to -12 degrees C up in that area while +8 to +12 degree C H85 temperatures were found across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Afternoon.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Northwest H5 flow continued across the Upper Midwest Today with a big hot H5 ridge covering areas from the Western High Plains back through the Western U.S. Strong winds aloft were confined to the Northern tier of U.S. on the north-northeast side of this upper level ridge with 500 mb winds of 50-80 knots and 300 mb winds of 120-130 knots across Eastern Saskatchewan through Western Ontario. This usually is a very classic severe weather set-up for our area with almost a ring of fire type pattern setting up into mid-week...But with the Gulf Of Mexico shut down, the end result will be for little if any severe weather activity around our area.

(Tonight)

Look for the cold front to continue it's journey toward the south during the night with the front expected to reach the Twin Cities area by dawn Tuesday. Dewpoints along and ahead of this front will remain in the 40s to around 50 degrees while CAPES climb to around 250-500 j/kg with LI'S around zero to -1 degree C. The last few images of the high resolution 1km visible satellite imagery does show a CU field forming along the front west and north of the Iron Range as of 245 PM and it's this CU field that could grow into isolated showers and thunderstorms Tonight as the front drops south. Shear is more than adequate for stronger convection This Evening, but this probably won't matter much since we don't have sufficient amounts of instability and moisture in place. It's also interesting to note that the 4km WRF model from Today has an area of elevated convection develop Overnight Tonight north of the cold front across Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin and the RUC model does back this up somewhat...so although most areas will be dry Tonight...A few showers or thunderstorms can't be ruled out. Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with 30s in Northeast Minnesota. Look for south or southwest winds ahead of the front at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph shifting to the north and east at 10-20 mph during the night as the front moves through.

(Tuesday and Tuesday Night)

Huge temperature drop expected on Tuesday as the cold front that moves through Tonight turns stationary during the day Tuesday across the South half of Minnesota while a strong area of high pressure passes by to our north. This stationary front will then lift back north as a warm front Tuesday Night thanks to a deep area of low pressure which will head into the Western High Plains while a 40-50 knot SWRLY low level jet points toward the Upper Midwest. Most models Today do show some elevated showers or thunderstorms developing at times near and north of the warm frontal boundary during this period. A strong push of elevated instability and Theate-E air is also expected to lift north into our area ahead of a cap which will be centered over the Northern Plains/Western High Plains. This type of setup is usually a good one for elevated severe weather across our area but the lack of moisture would argue against that. High temperatures on Tuesday will only be in the 40s and 50s with some locations near Lake Superior possibly not getting out of the 30s. Lows Tuesday Night will hold steady in the 40s and 50s with some 30s possible near Lake Superior. There is going to be a tremendous amount of warm air moving in aloft during this period so even though our surface temps will be very chilly on Tuesday...The air above us will be warming with 850 mb temps by Tuesday Night climbing to +12 to +16 degrees C! Winds Tomorrow will be out of the east at 10-20 mph with winds Tomorrow Night from the south or east at 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

A very warm and windy day is on tap for Wednesday as the aforementioned warm front blasts north into Canada while we sit in the warm sector with the surface cold front not moving into our area until late Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Night. Widespread 70s and 80s are expected across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday with south or southwest winds gusting over 25 mph! The only area where it could be much cooler will be in the Downtown Duluth/Superior locations where the marine layer may try to linger on Wednesday...But with such a strong push of warm air and a decent low level jet overhead this marine layer should dissipate with time on Wednesday, it will probably break up first in Superior than will spread west into West Duluth and Downtown Duluth later in the day. A very strong cap will also be in place across our area Wednesday and Wednesday Evening so it will take some good lift along the cold front to cause showers or thunderstorms to form. If any activity does manage to develop it should hold off until Wednesday Night as the cold front moves through. The Thursday and Thursday Night period looks mainly dry at this time as a cold front drops to our south and east.

Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s with highs Thursday in the 50s and 60s with lows Thursday Night in the 30s and 40s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*Red Flag Warning* in effect until 7 PM CDT This Evening...

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Turning much cooler. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 40 to 45. Wind south to southwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph becoming northeast at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday... Much cooler. Variable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 45 to 50. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Otherwise variably cloudy skies. Low 40 to 45. Chance of rain 20%.

.Wednesday... Warm and windy. Partly cloudy. High 78 to 83 but it could be much cooler for a time closer to Lake Superior. South to southwest winds could occasionally gust over 25 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 45 to 50. Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. Cooler. High 61 to 67.

.Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 35 to 40.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65.

Normal High Temperature Today 65 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 41 degrees

Tim

5/18/09: Red Flag Warning Information

Issued at 12:13 PM CDT, Monday, May 18th, 2009

Following headline issued by the National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota:

*Red Flag Warning* in effect for parts of Northeast...Eastcentral...and Northcentral Minnesota until 7 PM CDT This Evening...

Counties included:

Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...Southern St. Louis...Carlton...And Pine...

Strong south to southwest winds at 15-30 mph combined with high temperatures reaching the 70s and relative humidities falling to 25-30 percent and dry fuels will create the potential for explosive fire growth across parts of the area Today through early This Evening... A cold front will be dropping south into our area by This Evening and this should cause conditions to improve at that time.

Tim

Sunday, May 17, 2009

5/17/09: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:38 PM CDT, Sunday, May 17th, 2009



Weather History



On this date in 1987... 1.49" of rain fell at Duluth, Minnesota.



On this date in 1988... A record low temperature of 26 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.



Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin



(Today's Weather)



Temperatures are moderating Today thanks to a southerly flow which has been developing on a backside of a strong 1026 mb high which had moved into extreme Northeast Missouri as of late This Afternoon. Partly to mostly sunny skies were found across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today with high temperatures mainly in the 60s with late Afternoon 850 mb temperatures of +4 degrees C across the entire area. Winds Today were from the southwest or west around or less than 20 mph.



(Today's Upper Level Analysis)



Northwest flow aloft was in place across the Upper Midwest Today with the deep and very cold upper level trough which was over our area 24 hours ago now centered over Eastern Canada. A rather strong ridge of high pressure has been forming across the Western U.S. over the last day or so and it's this ridge that will spread out into the Central-Southern Plains this week. The overall upper level pattern will be more typical of one you would see during the Summer months with the fast winds aloft confined to the Northern tier of U.S. while a ridge of high pressure covers the Plains. With a ridge confined to our south the real deep Gulf Of Mexico moisture won't be able to penetrate north into our area so the system coming through Monday and again around the middle of the week will have only modest amounts of moisture to work with.



(Tonight)



Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies across the area with a southwesterly low level jet increasing to 30-40 knots Overnight which could lead to a passing shower or two...Mainly in far Northern-Northeast Minnesota. Lows Tonight will be mostly in the 40s with some 30s possible in Northwest Wisconsin. Winds will be out of the south or southwest around 20 mph or less.



(Monday and Monday Night)



Southwest winds will occur out ahead of a cold front which was over Central Canada Today...This boundary will drop south and through Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Monday Afternoon and Evening. Dewpoints should rise into the 40s to low 50s along and ahead of this boundary Monday Afternoon while CAPES climb to around 500-750 j/kg. LI'S should fall to around zero to -2 degrees C while Lapse Rates build to around 6.5-7.5 c/km. Will have plenty of shear in place for a thunderstorm to tap into as S-SW winds at the surface and at 850 mb veers northwest at 500 mb. Winds aloft will also be quite strong with around 50 knots expected at 500 mb while a stronger batch of winds up to around 130 knots moves toward Southern-Central Manitoba. 0-6 KM Bulk Shear is forecast to be around 40-50 knots on Monday with Effective Bulk Shear around 30-40 knots.



There is a threat for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of the southward moving cold front Monday and Monday Evening with an isolated risk for severe thunderstorms with hail and high winds being the main threats. Right now it appears that Southern St. Louis/Carlton/Pine/Aitkin/Southern Itasca/Douglas/Burnett/Bayfield/and Washburn counties would be the most likely areas to see possible thunderstorm activity during this period with the greater potential occurring from around 1 PM Monday through 8 PM Monday. Again this doesn't look like a major event at this time due to limited amounts of moisture in place, but there could be just enough moisture to pop a couple more robust storms Monday Afternoon.



Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies Monday and Monday Night with highs Tomorrow in the 60s and 70s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 30s and 40s with some 20s possible in far Northern Minnesota. Winds will be out of the south/southwest or north on Monday at 10-25 mph with north winds Monday Night at 10-20 mph.



(Extended Forecast)



The cold front which will move through our area on Monday will be centered over Southern Minnesota or Northern Iowa on Tuesday while high pressure moves across the local area. Look for partly-mostly sunny skies on Tuesday with a much cooler day expected compared to Monday. Highs will be in the 40s and 50s for most areas with lows Tuesday Night in the 30s and 40s...



By Tuesday Night...The aforementioned cold front will turn into a warm front while lifting north as high pressure exits to our east. This warm front will continue to lift north on Wednesday and how far north this front gets will have a major impact on our high temperatures on Wednesday. Most models Today blast the warm front right through Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Wednesday Morning which would send high temperatures soaring through the 70s and 80s on Wednesday with gusty south-southwest winds and a capped atmosphere... The 12z NAM/WRF model from Today lifts the warm front much slower to the north and would result in a chilly east wind and much cooler temps near Lake Superior while very warm air spreads into areas away from Lake Superior by Wednesday Afternoon... Low temperatures Wednesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.



The next issue with this warm front is whether or not any thunderstorms develop... Looks like will see a strong push of elevated instability/850 mb Thetae-E air push north across our area late Tuesday Night and Wednesday Morning on the nose of a cap which will be located across the Western High Plains. It's possible that we could see a few showers and thunderstorms develop as this warm front lifts into our area late Tuesday Night or Wednesday Morning.



By Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Night a cold front will be moving through our area from west to east which could cause a few showers or thunderstorms to break out...However there appears to be a pretty stout cap that spreads into our area by mid-week so it will take quite a bit of forcing along this front or some help from a disturbance to remove this capped airmass. The more likely outcome at least the way it looks now would be for any possible convection with the cold front to hold off until Wednesday Night.



5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior



.Tonight... Partly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.



.Monday... Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible mainly during the Afternoon. High 70 to 75. Wind southwest at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20%.



.Monday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible before 8 PM...Otherwise variably cloudy skies. Low 35 to 40. Wind becoming north at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20%.



.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 50 to 55.



.Tuesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible Overnight. Low 40 to 45. Chance of rain 20%.



.Wednesday... Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible. High 65 to 70 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 20%.



.Wednesday Night... Variable clouds. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 45 to 50. Chance of rain 20%.



.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 61 to 67.



Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 65 degrees



Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 41 degrees



Tim