Thursday, April 30, 2009

4/30/09: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:40 PM CDT, Thursday, April 30th, 2009

Here are some selected rainfall totals across Northeast Minnesota from 7 AM CDT Wednesday through 7 AM CDT Thursday...

West Duluth MN: About 0.50"

Duluth MN (Airport) 0.31"

Brainerd MN: 0.45"

Grand Marais MN: 0.37"

Hibbing MN: 0.54"

Babbitt MN: 0.64"

Littlefork MN: 0.53"

Silver Bay MN: 0.67"

Floodwood MN: 0.51"

3 miles East of Orr MN: 0.46"

Hinckley MN: 0.53"

Rainfall estimates from Wednesday and Wednesday Night's event from GR3 radar out of Duluth shows two seperate areas of somewhat higher QPF in our local area...One such area ran from Eastern Cass and Northeast Crow Wing County MN through Central and Northern Aitkin County MN through Southern, Central, and Eastern Itasca County MN into Western St. Louis County MN... This affected the cities of Crosby...Aitkin...McGregor...Palisade...Swatara...Hill City...Remer...Warba...Grand Rapids...Deer River...Wawina...Floodwood...and Hibbing... According to radar, rainfall totals of 0.50"-1.15" occurred in those areas.

The second area of maxed out QPF from this event occurred from Eastern St. Louis County MN into most of Lake County and Southwestern Cook County in Northeast Minnesota. This affected the cities of...Tower...Shaw...Ely...Forest Center...Silver Bay...Little Marais...Wales...and Tofte... Rain amounts in this area also ranged from 0.50"-1.15"...

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Low pressure of 1002 mb has reached Lake Nipigon Ontario or northwest of Thunder Bay Ontario Canada as of 5 PM Today. A cold front attached to this low took a few hours longer to exit the Eastern part of Minnesota which led to a longer period of time spent in low clouds, fog, and a marine layer from Downtown Duluth and Superior and along the North Shore of Lake Superior in Northeast Minnesota. The front finally passed through Duluth-Superior between 2PM-3PM Today which caused the surface wind to shift to the west. This helped to scour out the marine layer of air and replaced it with a brief surge in temperatures. The cold front as of late This Afternoon had moved into Western and Northern Wisconsin with a few spotty showers noted along this front as it moved through the area Today. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies were found across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today with high temperatures in the 50s and 60s...but cold air advection and cold air STRATOCU clouds are quickly spreading southeast out of Northcentral Minnesota late Today behind the surface low and cold front. 5 PM H85 temperatures ranged from +1 to +7 degrees C across our local area. Winds Today which were out of the south or east turned into the west and southwest at 10-20 mph with gusts from 25 to around 45 mph found immediately behind the cold frontal passage.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Pattern change is well underway as the southwest flow aloft which has covered the Upper Midwest over the last several days is being replaced by a west and eventually northwest flow while an active storm track sets back up from the Southern-Central Plains toward the Ohio Valley into early next week. Main interest in our area Today was the strong H5 low and trough which continued to surge east through Southern Ontario/Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes region Today with 12 hour 500 mb height falls of 120 meters noted in Northern Minnesota-Southern Ontario per 5 PM RUC model analysis.

(Tonight)

Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies with a possible light rain shower in Northern areas of the state. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s with winds from the west at 10-20 mph with gusts of 25-40 mph This Evening.

(Friday and Friday Night)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue during this period with a new cold front moving into Northern Minnesota by Friday Night. This boundary could cause a few light rain or snow showers across Northern areas of the state Friday Night as we begin the month of May. High temps on Friday will be mainly in the 40s and 50s with lows Friday Night in the 20s and 30s. Winds during this period will be out of the west, southwest, or northwest at 10-25 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

Cold front will exit the area to the south on Saturday with high pressure then building into the Upper Midwest through early next week. Could see a rain shower or two over parts of the area on Saturday with some snow possible early in the day up North....Overall though it looks mainly dry from Saturday through Monday in our local area. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the 40s and 50s with 50s and 60s expected on Sunday. Lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be mainly in the 30s but some 20s can't be ruled out in the traditional cold spots in Northern Minnesota especially Saturday Night. The next threat for some rain around our area could come the middle or end of next week as a complex weather system unfolds with some energy moving in from the west and possibly coming up from the south. Plenty of time to iron out those details.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Breezy. Considerable cloudiness. Low 35 to 40. Wind west to southwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph This Evening.

.Friday... Variable cloudiness. High 48 to 54. Wind west at 15 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday... Variable cloudiness. High 50 to 55.

.Saturday Night... Clearing. Low 30 to 35.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 55 to 60.

.Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 32 to 37.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 57 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 35 degrees

Tim

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

4/29/09: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:55 PM CDT, Wednesday, April 29th, 2009

Weather History

On this date in 1991... 1.55" of precipitation fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

On this date in 1989... 8.5" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Clouds were on the increase across our local area thanks to an area of low pressure of 1010 mb which was moving toward Southwestern North Dakota per 4 PM 1km visible satellite imagery. A warm front was centered over Central South Dakota with a stationary frontal boundary extending from Central North Dakota to Western Ontario Province. Warm advection and an increase in low level moisture was occurring over our area Today out ahead of the warm front and area of low pressure. This has caused areas of rain to overspread Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Afternoon with some heavier rain noted over Northern Cass through Northern-Eastern Aitkin Counties in Minnesota as of 5 PM. No thunderstorms have been reported anywhere in our area Today with no lightning strikes per NLDN data as of 4:20 PM Today, although some of the echoes currently in Northern Aitkin County look like they could start to produce some lightning shortly. High temperatures were in the 40s and 50s Today with a few spots in far Northern Minnesota around 60 degrees while mid and upper 30s prevailed from Downtown Duluth to Superior. 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM CDT ranged from +4 to +6 degrees C across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Winds across the area were out of the east Today at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

H5 low was centered over Eastern Montana per 2130z water vapor satellite imagery with an upper level trough covering Southwestern Canada...Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies. Southwest flow aloft prevailed ahead of this feature across the Upper Midwest.

(Tonight)

Southwesterly 850 mb jet of 30-45 knots will continue across our area which will cause further warm advection and moist advection up in our area as low pressure remains off to our west while a warm front lifts east-northeast toward southern parts of our area. The stationary front currently to our northwest will turn into a cold front during the night with this boundary heading east into our area Overnight. Dry air which was in place across our area about 12 hours ago has moistened up nicely late Today with PWS of .60"-.90" across all but far Northern-far Northeast Minnesota. Surface dews will also start to climb during the night with 40s spreading into most locations away from Lake Superior by Morning. Areas of rain will persist across all of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight under mostly cloudy skies. Isolated thunderstorms could also develop during the night as elevated capes rise to around 100-200 j/kg and LI'S approach zero degrees C. Lows Tonight will be in the 30s and 40s while east or southeast winds continue at 10-25 mph. Winds will begin to shift to the southwest Overnight in western and southern parts of our area.

(Thursday and Thursday Night)

Low pressure will exit to our northeast by Thursday Night while a cold front exits Northeast Minnesota Thursday Morning and Northwest Wisconsin Thursday Afternoon. High temperatures on Thursday will be highly dependent on how much sun we see. Looks like we will see at least a few hours worth of sunshine develop as an 850 mb dry slot passes overhead...But cold advection type clouds look to develop and spread south-east across Northern Minnesota by Thursday Afternoon. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 50s and 60s but with H85 temperatures climbing toward +10 degrees C...This could lead to a few spots especially in Northwest Wisconsin approaching 70 degrees. Again this will be highly dependent on how long the sun is out for. Could see a few showers around the area on Thursday with dry weather Thursday Night. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible Tomorrow in Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Thursday Night will be in the 30s and low 40s. Winds Tomorrow will shift from the south and southwest to the west and northwest. Winds Tomorrow Night will be out of the northwest or west. Wind speeds will range from 10-25 mph during this period.

(Extended Forecast)

Northwesterly flow aloft will dominate our weather from Friday through the weekend. Result from this will be for near to below normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. High temperatures Friday and Saturday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Friday Night and Saturday Night in the 20s and 30s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Occasional showers. A thunderstorm also possible. Low 35 to 40. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts around 25 mph.

.Thursday... A few showers possible early. Otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. Breezy. High 55 to 60. Wind becoming southwest at 10 to 20 mph during the Morning then becoming west at 15 to 25 mph.

.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Low 31 to 37. Wind west to northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Friday... Variable cloudiness. High 45 to 50.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 27 to 32.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 48 to 53.

.Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 30 to 35.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 55 to 60.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 57 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 35 degrees

Tim

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

4/28/09: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:01 PM CDT, Tuesday, April 28th, 2009

Weather History

On this date in 1994... 5.0" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

A very chilly start to the day across the area as skies cleared Overnight which combined with diminishing wind speeds led to a fast drop off in temperatures just before sunrise. Widespread 20s occurred throughout the area with areas of frost noted...Even below the hill in Duluth This Morning. Temperatures warmed into the 50s over most areas This Afternoon as mostly sunny skies and a wind shift to the east occurred as high pressure of 1034-1036 mb pushed off to the north/east of our area. The wind coming off Lake Superior kept temperatures in the 40s Today along the North and South Shore of Lake Superior. H85 temperatures around Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin ranged from +1 to +2 degrees C as of 4 PM Today while plenty of cold air remains north of the border where 850 mb temperatures This Afternoon ranged from -2 to -10 degrees C.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Southwest flow aloft continued across our area as a ridge continues to cover the Southern Plains-Eastern U.S. while an H5 trough digs south-east across the Pacific Northwest. A 500 mb low was centered over Eastern Washington state and Western Idaho late Today per water vapor satellite imagery. This cold upper level storm system has been producing a major late season snow storm over portions of the Northern Rockies over the past few days.

(Tonight)

Expect clear-partly cloudy skies to turn somewhat cloudier Overnight with lows generally in the 30s...but some 20s are possible in far Northeast Minnesota. East winds will continue at 10-20 mph. High pressure will remain in control of our weather Tonight as it remains to our north-east.

(Wednesday and Wednesday Night)

High pressure will be centered to our northeast during this period while low pressure approaches from the west-northwest. A stationary front attached to this low will turn into a cold front while remaining west of our local area. An 850 mb jet will begin to increase out ahead of this system with speeds around 30-40 knots expected by Tomorrow Night. Look for moisture to increase as the low level jet strengthens which will begin to draw moist air up into our area. Should see some areas of showers over Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin by Wednesday Night...But they could start as soon as Wednesday Afternoon in western-southern parts of our area. Doesn't appear will be dealing with any thunderstorm activity with this event as elevated capes struggle to reach 100 j/kg Wednesday Night. Look for partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies Tomorrow and mostly cloudy skies Tomorrow Night. Highs Wednesday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Wednesday Night in the 30s and 40s. Look for east or southeast winds at 10-25 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

Low pressure along with an upper level trough will head east across the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A cold front attached to the surface low will be tracking east-southeast across our area on Thursday. Could see a few rain showers over parts of the area on Thursday with high temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Lows Thursday Night will be in the 30s as winds swing into the northwest as low pressure exits to our east. Looks dry Friday and Friday Night with highs in the 40s and 50s with lows in the 20s and 30s. The upper level pattern still looks to transition to a northwesterly flow later this week into early next week...This will result in continued near to below average temperatures and little if any chance for rain from Friday through next Monday the way it looks now.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday... Considerable cloudiness. High 47 to 52 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 35 to 40. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday... Mostly cloudy. A few showers possible. High 55 to 60. Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 31 to 37.

.Friday... Variable cloudiness. High 45 to 50.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 27 to 32.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 48 to 53.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 56 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 34 degrees

Tim

Monday, April 27, 2009

4/27/09: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:54 PM CDT, Monday, April 27th, 2009

Picked up about 0.40" of rain here in West Duluth Sunday and Sunday Night.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

An area of low pressure averaging 1006 mb was centered over Southern Hudson Bay as of 4 PM with high pressure of 1024 mb centered over Northern South Dakota. Skies around the local area were partly sunny to mostly cloudy Today with some spotty instability type sprinkles and light rain showers passing southeast across parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. High temperatures Today were in the 40s and 50s with 4 PM 850 mb temperatures of zero to -2 degrees C. Winds were out of the north or northwest at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Southwest flow aloft continued Today across the Upper Midwest with an H5 ridge continuing to cover the Eastern U.S. while a new upper level trough with 90 meter 12 hour H5 height falls digs south-east through the Pacific Northwest

(Tonight)

Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as high pressure continues to build in from the west. Could see a few light rain showers or sprinkles This Evening, otherwise it will be dry through the night. Lows will be in the 20s and 30s with winds out of the north or northwest around 20 mph or less.

(Tuesday and Tuesday Night)

A pretty strong area of high pressure will settle into the Upper Great Lakes while a new storm system tracks through the Western U.S. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies during this period with highs Tuesday in the 40s and 50s with lows Tuesday Night mainly in the 30s. Winds will becoming east at 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

High pressure pushes off into Eastern Canada by mid-week which will allow the system out west to track into the Upper Midwest and Plains. Could see some rain spread into our local area from Wednesday into Thursday as this system moves through. After this system passes by...It appears that the upper level pattern will transition to a northwesterly flow aloft, this looks to occur by this weekend. High temperatures across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will be in the 40s and 50s on Wednesday and Thursday with some 60s possible on Thursday across Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night will be in the 30s to low 40s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 48 to 53 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind becoming east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday... Partly to mostly cloudy. Light rain possible. High 47 to 52 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 20%.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Light rain possible. Low 35 to 40. Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday... Mostly cloudy. Light rain possible. High 45 to 50. Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 31 to 37.

.Friday... Variable cloudiness. High 45 to 50.

Normal High Temperature Today 55 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 33 degrees

Tim

Sunday, April 26, 2009

4/26/09: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:48 PM CDT, Sunday, April 26th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 1996, a record low temperature of 19 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN...

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

A windy and chilly Spring day across the area thanks to a 1006 mb low which was lifting northeast out of Eastern South Dakota. Meanwhile an area of high pressure averaging 1032 mb was centered over Central Quebec. The pressure difference between the low to our southwest and the high to our northeast caused easterly winds to really pick up Today with wind speeds of 10-20 mph and gusts from 25 to 35 mph...especially near Lake Superior. High temperatures Today were only in the 30s and 40s with 4 PM H85 temperatures ranging from +2 to +10 degrees C across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Overcast skies and areas of rain and drizzle developed and lifted southwest to north-northeast throughout the area Today. Enough cold air has been in place at the surface for some of the rain to fall as wet snow or mixed rain and wet snow in higher elevated areas along the North Shore of Lake Superior Today. The precipitation across our area Today has been developing well north of a warm front which as of late Today was pushing north toward far Southern Minnesota.

Rainfall totals Today per doppler radar out of Duluth have been heaviest across Northwest Wisconsin where .25"-.50" of rain fell Today...Meanwhile across Northeast Minnesota, amounts have been less with generally around 0.05-.25" of rain Today...However a few pockets of higher QPF were noted over Northeast Itasca and Southeast Pine County MN where upwards of .30" of rain fell Today.

*Note: The models so far have been way too heavy with precipitation totals across Northeast Minnesota with this event...Although the amounts across Northwest Wisconsin seem to be matching up pretty good with what the models were forecasting.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Pattern change is complete as a broad southwest flow aloft covers the Plains between a strong H5 ridge from South Texas through the Eastern U.S. and large H5 trough over the Western U.S. An upper level low was analyzed over Southeast Idaho late Today and was moving slowly toward the south-east.

(Tonight)

Low pressure will head E-NE out of Eastern South Dakota and should reach Northcentral Wisconsin during the night. Warm front currently along the Iowa-Minnesota border should continue to lift northeast This Evening with the warm front possibly making it into southern parts of Northwest Wisconsin before Midnight. Then a cold front will overtake the warm frontal boundary later Tonight as the low exits to our east-northeast. The main area of rain Tonight looks to set-up across Northwest Wisconsin with additional scattered areas of rain across Northeast Minnesota. Some wet snow or even some freezing rain could continue at times Tonight in higher elevated areas along the North Shore of Lake Superior, but significant accumulations of snow or ice are not expected at this time. An H3 jet streak of 110-130 knots developing to our west late Today could help in producing a steadier area of rain Tonight in Eastern Minnesota so this area much like Northwestern Wisconsin could see somewhat higher amounts of precipitation Tonight. Scattered thunderstorms remain a possibility before Midnight generally over Northwest Wisconsin as elevated CAPES climb to around 250-500 j/kg and LI'S approach zero degrees C. It doesn't look like any of these storms will become severe...But some lightning, heavy downpours, and small hail could occur in the stronger storms that develop This Evening. Lows Tonight will be in the 30s and 40s with east winds turning southwest or north around 10-20 mph. Wind gusts around 30-35 mph will continue near Lake Superior This Evening.

(Monday and Monday Night)

Low pressure will be pulling away from our area during this period with high pressure beginning to build in from the west-northwest. Look for partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies on Monday with a few lingering rain showers possible. Dry weather is expected Monday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s and 30s. Winds will be out of the north or west around 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

High pressure will be in control of our weather Tuesday and Tuesday Night with high temperatures in the 40s and 50s with lows in the 20s and 30s. As we move from mid-week to late week will continue to see an area of high pressure off to our north while a low pressure system comes out of the Western U.S. and into the Plains. Remains to be seen how far north this system will get due to the high off to our north which may help to surpress this storm to our south. Models Today are not in very good agreement from Wednesday through Friday. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Wednesday Night generally in the 30s. Some rain is possible from mid to late week depending on how the Western system tracks once it reaches the Plains.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Windy with drizzle and fog This Evening. Some light rain possible. Low 30 to 35. Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph with gusts around 30 mph. Winds decreasing to 10 to 20 mph and becoming north late.

.Monday... Considerable cloudiness. High 45 to 50. Wind north at 15 to 20 mph.

.Monday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 47 to 52 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.

.Wednesday... Partly to mostly cloudy. High 47 to 52 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.

.Thursday... Mostly cloudy. High 45 to 50.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 55 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 33 degrees

Tim

Saturday, April 25, 2009

4/25/09: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:46 PM CDT, Saturday, April 25th, 2009

From severe thunderstorms in Northwest Wisconsin to a bit of snow over parts of Northern Minnesota...Friday Night saw some crazy weather around the area...

Here are the severe weather reports that occurred in Northwest Wisconsin on Friday, April 24th, 2009 per SPC storm report page...

Kennan WI (Price County) 0.75" diameter hail at 6:29 PM CDT...Dime size hail was reported on Highway 8.

Prentice WI (Price County) 0.75" diameter hail at 6:38 PM CDT...

Mercer WI (Iron County) 1.00" diameter hail at 7:39 PM CDT...

Winter WI (Sawyer County) 0.75" diameter hail at 8:15 PM CDT...

8 miles Northwest of Phillipis WI (Price County) 0.88" diameter hail at 9:08 PM CDT...

Prentice WI (Price County) 0.88" diameter hail at 9:05 PM CDT...

Prentice WI (Price County) 5-6 inch diameter tree down...55 mph wind gusts at 6:43 PM CDT.

Phillips WI (Price County) Trees down on power line near Phillips. West on Solberg Road near Disappearing Creek Road at 7 PM CDT...

2 miles East of Fifield WI (Price County) Fire Department responded to a report of trees down near Highway 70 and Highway 13.

Also last night... 1.0" of snow was reported 15 miles North of Grand Rapids MN in Itasca County.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Skies were generally partly cloudy to mostly sunny with high temperatures in the 40s and 50s. 850 mb temperatures as of 5 PM CDT were right around zero degrees C across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Winds were variable or northerly in direction around 15 mph or less. Surface map as of 5 PM CDT features a ridge of high pressure averaging 1022 mb covering Western-Southern Ontario through Northern Minnesota into Eastern North Dakota. Low pressure averaging 998 mb was centered over Western Colorado with a cold front extending from the Texas Panhandle to Eastern Kansas to Northcentral Illinois.

Note: A very tight moisture gradient was found over our local area Today with late Afternoon PWATS of .20" across Northern Minnesota to .60" down toward Price County Wisconsin. Deeper moisture with .80"-1.40" PWATS reside from Central Wisconsin and Southern Minnesota through the Central Plains. As the southerly winds above us pick up it will help draw the deeper moisture north into our local area on Sunday.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

An H5 trough was digging south-east across the Western U.S. while an H5 ridge covered the Eastern U.S. Main feature of interest for our local area was the potent upper low heading east across Utah late Today per water vapor satellite imagery.

(Tonight)

Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as low pressure pulls out of Western Colorado into the Plains during the night. The cold front currently centered well south and southeast of our local area will turn into a warm front Tonight while a low level jet strengthens during the night which will pull warmer more moist air up and over that boundary. Result from all this will be for the development of some rain later in the night...mainly across the southern parts of our area. A couple rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out either Overnight over those areas. Lows Tonight will be in the 30s and 40s with some 20s possible far north. Winds Tonight will become easterly at 5-15 mph with gusts around 20-25 mph developing near Lake Superior.

(Sunday and Sunday Night)

Low pressure will be lifting northeast into Southern Minnesota on Sunday then the low is expected to track toward Northwest Wisconsin Sunday Night. Warm front attached to this low should continue to lift north-northeast...and will possibly reach Northwestern Wisconsin late Sunday Afternoon or Evening before the low and cold front overtake the warm frontal boundary Sunday Night. A strong 850 mb jet of 40-55 knots will be present out ahead of this storm system and this low level jet will bring deeper moisture up and over the warm front. This low level jet will also cause elevated instability to rise Sunday Afternoon and Evening with MUCAPES climbing toward 250-750 j/kg across Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota. Rain will overspread the entire area on Sunday with some of the rain becoming heavy at times. Scattered thunderstorms are also expected from Eastcentral Minnesota through Northwest Wisconsin Sunday and Sunday Evening. An isolated risk for severe thunderstorms does exist Sunday Afternoon and Evening primarily over Northwestern Wisconsin with the main threat being from large hail. As precipitation heads north into the Arrowhead of Minnesota back toward extreme Northern Minnesota it will encounter a cooler airmass and this could result in some wet snow or freezing rain mixing in with the rain at times from Sunday into Sunday Night...Evaporative cooling processes will dictate just how much frozen precipitation falls up toward the Silver Bay...Grand Marais...Hovland...Tofte...International Falls areas...

Look for the rain and possible mixed precip up north and a thunder threat south and east to end from southwest to northeast by Sunday Night...

High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 30s and 40s but could jump into the 50s later in the day across parts of Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 30s and 40s. Winds will increase from the east on Sunday at 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph developing near Lake Superior. Winds Sunday Night will shift around from the south and east to the north and west at 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

Low pressure will exit northeast of our area by early Monday with high pressure then controlling our weather into the middle of next week. Just a small threat that we could see a few lingering rain showers across the area on Monday...Then Tuesday and Wednesday look generally dry at this point. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night in the 20s and 30s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Clear with increasing clouds Overnight. Low 30 to 35. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 to 25 mph developing near Lake Superior late.

.Sunday... Windy with rain. A few thunderstorms also possible. High 35 to 40. Wind east to northeast at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 35 to 40 mph near Lake Superior.

.Sunday Night... Breezy during the Evening. Rain tapering off to some lingering showers during the Evening. A few thunderstorms possible early. Temperatures holding nearly steady from 35 to 40. Wind east at 15 to 25 mph...Becoming west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday... Variable cloudiness. High 45 to 50.

.Monday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 47 to 52 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 47 to 52 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 55 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 33 degrees

Tim

Friday, April 24, 2009

4/24/09: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:50 PM CDT, Friday, April 24th, 2009

Weather History

On this date in 1990, a record high temperature of 82 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

A few severe thunderstorms erupted Thursday Evening over a part of Eastcentral and Northeast Minnesota. Two reports of severe weather occurred Thursday Evening...

4 miles Southeast of Aitkin MN (Aitkin County) .88" hail at 8:13 PM CDT

Brookston MN (St. Louis County) .75" hail at 9:57 PM CDT

Another thunderstorm cell moved rapidly northeast across Lake Mille Lacs through Northern Pine...Southern Carlton...into Douglas County early This Morning, but this storm stayed below severe limits.

A huge increase in temperatures occurred below the hill in Duluth early Today as lake winds Thursday Evening switched to the south around 2 AM...Wind speeds were well over 30 mph early Today and temperatures climbed from around 40 degrees to around 65 degrees in a matter of one hour! A powerful 850 mb jet around 55 knots was present last night over Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin which was partially responsible in generating the isolated thunderstorms as well as the shifting winds in Duluth early Today.

Rainfall amounts as is often the case when were dealing with convection is highly variable with two well defined streaks of higher QPF noted per rainfall estimates off the Duluth Doppler Radar from last night's storms... Some locations in Southern Crow Wing...Southern-Eastern Aitkin...far Northwest Pine...Southern-Central-and Eastern Carlton Counties saw anywhere from .45"-.80" while a small area between Aitkin and Glen Minnesota saw upwards of 1.25" of rain... The second streak of higher rain totals last night occurred from far Northwest Carlton County into Southern St. Louis County where .45"-.80" of rain fell per radar estimates.

The next thunderstorm cell that affected parts of Northeastern Pine County through Western-Central-and Northern Douglas County early This Morning dropped between .15"-.60" of rain per rainfall estimates...

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

After last night's interesting weather, Today has featured a return to late winter like temperatures west and north of Duluth while a warm airmass continued over southern parts of Northwestern Wisconsin. A strong cold front as of 3 PM Today ran from Northcentral Wisconsin back to Western Wisconsin into Southeast Minnesota with low pressure of 1001 mb analyzed over Southeast Minnesota with a 1003 mb low centered over Northcentral Wisconsin. A huge temperature contrast continued Today around the Upper Midwest with 80s and 90s common from Southeast Minnesota to Central Wisconsin with 30s over portions of Northern Minnesota. In our local area...Temperatures This Afternoon ranged from the 60s and 70s around the Hayward/Park Falls area to the 30s and 40s in Northern Minnesota. A very tight baroclinic zone was in place around Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today with 3 PM H85 temperatures ranging from zero degrees C in far Northern Minnesota to +14 degrees C over Northwest Wisconsin. Winds across the area were from the south, southwest, or north around 20 mph or less Today.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

H5 pattern continues to transition Today with a ridge forming over the Southeast U.S. into the Mid Atlantic states while an upper level trough digs south and west out of Westcentral Canada into the Northern Rockies. Strong H3 jet streak of 120-140 knots was found east of this upper trough Today from Western Ontario to Southwest Manitoba.

(Tonight)

Strong cold front will exit Northwest Wisconsin This Evening while frontogenical type rain bands occur behind the cold front across Northeast Minnesota This Evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur This Evening over Northwest Wisconsin and perhaps Eastern Minnesota. Still a low risk that an isolated storm could reach severe limits This Evening in Northwest Wisconsin with hail and gusty winds being the main threats. Locally heavy rain and dangerous lightning will also occur in any thunderstorm This Evening. Cold temperatures found across Northern Minnesota could result in the rain mixing with or changing to wet snow for a time Tonight. Lows Tonight under mostly cloudy skies will be in the 20s and 30s with some 40s in Northwest Wisconsin. Winds will be out of the north or northwest around 20 mph or less.

(Saturday and Saturday Night)

An area of high pressure currently over Northeast Wyoming and Western South Dakota will build into our area during this period while a cold front stalls out well to our south. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Saturday and Saturday Night with highs in the 40s and 50s with lows in the 20s and 30s. Some rain showers could linger through Saturday Morning across Northwest Wisconsin and possibly into Eastern Minnesota...otherwise the rest of this period looks dry at this time.

(Extended Forecast)

A strong late April storm looks to strike the local area later this weekend... High pressure will retreat to Eastern Canada by Sunday while low pressure ejects northeast out of the Rockies into the Plains. This low then looks to pass into Western and Northern Wisconsin Sunday Night before it exits to the north of Lake Superior on Monday.

A very strong 850 mb jet of 40-55 knots looks to develop ahead of this low and north of a warm front which will be surging north-east on Sunday. The low level jet will transport warmer more moist air north into our area while it also causes elevated instability to increase as the warm front moves north.

It remains to be seen how far north the warm front will get before the low pulls off to the northeast. But it's possible that some isolated severe thunderstorms with a threat for large hail could make it as far north as Pine County Minnesota then east through Burnett...Washburn...Sawyer...and Price Counties in Wisconsin late Sunday or Sunday Evening.

Widespread rain looks to occur across the entire area from Sunday into early Monday with some heavy rainfall likely in some locations. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible Sunday and Sunday Evening over Northwest Wisconsin into Eastcentral Minnesota.

There's still some threat for wet snow in Northern Minnesota from this late weekend storm, but the threat for a late season snow event seems to be diminishing at this time due to such strong warm advection that looks to take place over most of our local area later this weekend.

Outside of the precipitation...The wind looks to be quite a factor Sunday and Sunday Evening as east winds strengthen due to the pressure difference between the high to our northeast and the low coming in from the Plains. General wind speeds of 10-25 mph can be expected across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin but wind gusts could top 30 mph...especially near Lake Superior.

High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 30s and 40s but could rise into the 50s in Northwest Wisconsin Sunday Evening. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 30s and 40s with highs Monday in the 40s and 50s. Lows Monday Night will be mainly in the 30s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Considerable cloudiness with some rain showers. Low 32 to 36. Wind north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday... A shower possible early...Otherwise skies becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 46 to 52. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night... Mostly clear with increasing clouds Overnight. Low 30 to 35. Wind becoming east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Windy. Rain developing. A few thunderstorms also possible. High 35 to 40. Wind east increasing to 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts possible.

.Sunday Night... Breezy. Rain. A few thunderstorms possible in the Evening. Temperatures holding nearly steady from 35 to 40. Wind east at 15 to 25 mph becoming north Overnight.

.Monday... Variable cloudiness. High 45 to 50.

.Monday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 47 to 52.

Normal High Temperature Today 53 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 32 degrees

Tim

Thursday, April 23, 2009

4/23/09: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:26 PM CDT, Thursday, April 23rd, 2009

Weather Headlines issued by the National Weather Service in Duluth, MN:

*Red Flag Warning* continues until 7 PM CDT This Evening for the following counties...

In Minnesota:

Crow Wing...Cass...Itasca...Koochiching...Aitkin...Pine...Carlton...St.Louis...Northern Lake...And Northern Cook...

In Wisconsin:

Douglas...Bayfield...Burnett...Washburn...Ashland...And Sawyer.

Southerly winds at 15 to 25 mph with some higher gusts will continue This Evening as a cold front drops south into Northern Minnesota. Temperatures warming into the 70s to low 80s away from Lake Superior combined with low relative humidities under 40% along with dry fuels in place will lead to a threat of explosive fire weather across the warning area late This Afternoon and early This Evening.

Note: 21 degrees with snow at Great Falls Montana at 5 PM CDT Today while it was 91 degrees at Sioux Falls South Dakota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Short lived heat wave is blasting northeast across Minnesota Today as a well defined warm front continues to lift east-northeast across Westcentral Minnesota. Temperatures near and behind this boundary climbed into the mid 80s and low 90s Today from Wheaton and Ortonville through Willmar...Canby...Granite Falls...And Redwood Falls. Temperatures in our local area made it into the 60s and 70s Today with some locales down toward Brainerd nearing 80 degrees as of 4 PM... Much cooler 40s and 50s were found along the North Shore of Lake Superior Today. 850 mb temperatures around Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin ranged from +14 to +18 degrees C as of 4 PM Today with H7 temperatures of +2 to +4 degrees C...

The first wave of warm air advection which did kick off a small area of showers and isolated thunderstorms This Morning across Sawyer and Price Counties in Northwest Wisconsin has exited to the east This Afternoon but not before it dropped upwards of .15"-.45" of rain in isolated locales in those counties. The next batch of warm air advection has been generating an area of ACCAS clouds Today and spotty radar echoes per Duluth Doppler Radar This Afternoon as it lifts east-northeast into Northern and Eastcentral Minnesota as well as Northwest Wisconsin. Dewpoints around our local area were running in the 30s and 40s This Afternoon with PWATS of .40"-.60"

Surface map as of 4 PM has a warm front moving toward Central Minnesota with low pressure of 994 mb centered over Southeast North Dakota with a cold front centered in extreme Northwest Minnesota.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

H5 trough with 60-90 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls was tracking south and east through the Pacific Northwest and Western Canada with a southwesterly flow aloft now developing out ahead of this trough.

(Tonight)

Southwesterly 850 mb jet will ramp up to 35-50 knots with it's axis pointing toward Eastcentral and Northeast Minnesota through Northwestern Wisconsin during the night. This low level jet will continue to transport warm air into our area which will effectively cap off the atmosphere from generating any surface based thunderstorm activity. However...Elevated instability will be increasing across our area Tonight and combined with very steep mid level lapse rates of 7.0-8.5 c/km could lead to the development of some showers and thunderstorms across parts of the area Tonight.

Couple areas to watch for possible convection Tonight include: The 850 mb front which seems to be setting up over Northern Minnesota... Second...The cold front in Northwest Minnesota which will sag south across Northcentral Minnesota during the night. Third...The continued east-northeast movement of the warm front through Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

I believe that Northern Minnesota along with adjacent areas of Western Lake Superior...north of Duluth would have the best chance to see some showers and thunderstorms Tonight compared to other areas. But isolated activity cannot be ruled out farther south and east due to the strengthening low level jet and the warm front.

Severe thunderstorms are not expected Tonight due to a continued lack of deep moisture, but a few of the stronger storms that could develop may pose a risk for marginally severe hail and or gusty winds. Dangerous lightning will also occur in any storm that manages to get going Tonight.

Partly-mostly cloudy skies will cover the area Tonight with lows in the 50s to around 60 degrees with cooler 40s near Lake Superior and in Koochiching County. Winds will be out of the south, southeast, or north at 5-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph This Evening.

(Friday and Friday Night)

Cold front will be moving southeast through Northeast and Eastcentral Minnesota Tomorrow Morning with the front then passing through Northwest Wisconsin Friday Afternoon and Friday Evening. Showers or thunderstorms are possible near this front across Northwest Wisconsin Friday into Friday Evening with lingering showers Overnight. Areas of showers will also be found behind the front across Northeast Minnesota with any threat for thunderstorms being confined to the Morning hours.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Friday Afternoon in Northwest Wisconsin...Mainly from Washburn...Sawyer...and Price Counties and points south from there. Large hail and gusty winds would be the main threats along with dangerous lightning.

By Friday Night...The area of -4 to -12 degree C H85 temps currently extending from Manitoba Province west to Alberta Province Canada will be dislodged to the south and could cause the rain to mix with some wet snow over Northern Minnesota before the precipitation ends.

Highs on Friday will be in the 50s and 60s over Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota with 40s in Northern Minnesota. Lows Friday Night will be in the 20s and 30s with some 40s in Northwest Wisconsin. Winds on Friday will be out of the south, north, or northeast with north, northwest, or northeast winds Friday Night. Wind speeds will be around 20 mph or less during this period.

(Extended Forecast)

Could see some areas of rain linger in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota Saturday Morning...Otherwise the rest of Saturday and Saturday Night look dry at this point as high pressure builds in from the northwest while the surface boundary shifts well to our south and east. Highs on Saturday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Saturday Night mainly in the 30s. The period from Sunday into early Monday will have to be watched as the forecast models Today are starting to come into agreement with regards to how everything will unfold later this weekend...

Right now it appears will see a big ridge develop across the Eastern U.S. with a southwest flow aloft across the Plains while troughing continues out west. It's beginning to look more and more likely that will see a more organized area of low pressure eject out of the Western trough with the low heading northeast toward Eastern Wisconsin by Sunday Night.

It's possible that the low could end up tracking more to the west depending on how everything sets up across the Eastern U.S. However at this time the most likely outcome would be for the surface low to track from the Plains toward Green Bay Wisconsin.

Based on that storm track...It appears that Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota would see some rain Sunday into early Monday with some heavier rainfall amounts possible in Northwest Wisconsin. Rain chances would be less across Northern Minnesota but some of the rain could end up mixing with or turning over to wet snow at times if the precipitation can lift farther north and west into the colder air that will be in place in Northern Minnesota. Will have to keep a close eye on future model runs to see if the storm track changes at all because if it ends up going more to the west...Then a late season snow event could be coming to Northern areas of Minnesota later this weekend.

Winds could also increase from Sunday into early Monday thanks to the pressure difference between the low moving up from the Plains and an area of high pressure residing over Eastern Canda. Result from all this could be for some gusty easterly winds...Especially near Lake Superior.

High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Sunday Night in the 20s and 30s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*Red Flag Warning* in effect until 7 PM CDT This Evening

.Tonight... Variable cloudiness. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Low 40 to 45. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph becoming south away from Lake Superior. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 50 to 55. Wind south to southwest early becoming north at 10 to 15 mph before Noon. Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 30 to 35. Wind north at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. Showers possible. High 45 to 50. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.

.Sunday... Mostly cloudy. Rain or wet snow possible. High 35 to 40. Chance of precipitation 20%.

.Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy. Rain or wet snow possible. Low 30 to 35. Chance of precipitation 20%.

.Monday... Variable cloudiness. High 45 to 50.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 53 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 32 degrees

Tim

4/23/09: *Red Flag Warning*

Issued at 11:53 AM CDT, Thursday, April 23rd, 2009

Following headlines issued by the National Weather Service in Duluth, MN:

*Red Flag Warning* is in effect until 7 PM CDT This Evening for the following counties...

In Minnesota:

Koochiching...Itasca...Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...Pine...Carlton...St. Louis...Northern Lake...And Northern Cook...

In Wisconsin:

Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...Burnett...Washburn...And Sawyer...

Southerly winds will increase to 15-30 mph This Afternoon as a cold front drops south into Northern Minnesota. Temperatures will warm through the 70s to around 80 degrees with low relative humidity around 30 percent. This combined with dry fuels in place will create explosive fire weather potential across the warning area through early This Evening.

Tim

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

4/22/09: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:46 PM CDT, Wednesday, April 22nd 2009

Weather History

On this date in 1990, a record high temperature of 80 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

On this date in 2001. 1.77" of precipitation fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

On this date in 1972. 7.8" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Last vestiges of the wrap around clouds from the large storm that moved into the Great Lakes over the last few days was finally exiting far Northeast Minnesota and the Ashland-Iron County areas in Northwestern Wisconsin This Afternoon. Warm advection clouds were already heading east and southeast into Northcentral Minnesota This Afternoon...There's even been some radar echoes underneath this cloud deck...but with very dry air in place none of this has been reaching the ground. Partly sunny to mostly sunny skies covered the area Today with high temperatures generally in the 40s and 50s. H85 temperatures as of 4 PM Today ranged from zero to +2 degrees C across our area with an area of +16 to +22 degree C H85 temps found from Central South Dakota back through the Rockies...High temperatures in these areas soared into the 80s Today. Winds across the area were out of the south or east Today around 15 mph or less. Surface map late This Afternoon featured a warm front centered over the Central Dakotas with a 998 mb low analyzed over Southern Saskatchewan.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Still seeing a northwest flow aloft across the Upper Midwest Today with an upper level trough covering the Eastern Great Lakes/Eastern Canada area while an upper level ridge spreads east out of the Rockies. A new upper level trough was digging southeast across Western Canada and the Pacific Northwest with a large area of 120 meter H5 height falls observed per RUC model This Afternoon across Western Canada into Northern Washington state.

(Tonight)

Southwesterly low level jet is forecast to increase to 30-45 knots during the night which will advect warm air advection into our area from the Northern Plains. As the low level jet strengthens Tonight the atmosphere will destabilize with mid level lapse rates building to around 7.0-7.5 c/km Overnight. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 30s and 40s across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. If more moisture was available then we probably would see some showers and thunderstorms around our area Tonight...But with such a dry airmass in place at the moment it's doubtful will see much if any measurable precipitation occur across the area Tonight.

(Thursday and Thursday Night)

Today's model run seems to be trending somewhat cooler across our area...especially so near Lake Superior. The warm front which was over the Central Dakotas This Afternoon will head east reaching Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin later in the day. A cold front will also be dropping southeast into Northern Minnesota by Thursday Night. Models Today still are persistent in showing dewpoints pooling into the 50s near those boundaries, but I still believe the models are overdoing the moisture return across our area and as a result we should end up with less instability than what the models are projecting Today. Dewpoints should climb through the 30s and 40s with a few isolated locales soaring toward 50 degrees. This in turn will keep CAPES around or less than 750 j/kg across our area. Mid level lapse rates of 7.0-8.0 c/km will continue to advect into our local area during this period while a capping inversion also spreads in from the west and southwest with 700 mb temperatures climbing to around +2 to +4 degrees C.
Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies during this period with a few showers or thunderstorms possible Tomorrow Morning across Northwest Wisconsin...Then over Northcentral and Northeast Minnesota by Thursday Night. I don't think any of these storms will become severe during this period, but some small hail and dangerous lightning may accompany some of the thunderstorms that develop...Especially by Thursday Night. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 50s and 60s with 70s expected from around Walker and Brainerd through the Hinckley...Siren and Hayward areas. High temps will be cooler though near Lake Superior with readings in the 40s and 50s. Lows Thursday Night will be in the 40s and 50s for most areas. Winds will be out of the south or southeast on Thursday at 10-25 mph. Winds Thursday Night will be out of the south, southwest, or north around 10-20 mph.

The situation for Thursday and Thursday Night will continue to be monitored in regards to the threat for thunderstorms since there should be ample amounts of shear in place which could lead to an isolated severe thunderstorm risk if we can get the deeper moisture into our area...Again right now this seems very unlikely.

(Extended Forecast)

Very low confidence from Friday through Monday as models are struggling from one run to the next as to how everything plays out during the extended period... GFS model has been fairly consistent in showing what could be a late season snow event or mixed snow/rain event for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin later this weekend while the NAVY model would keep some threat for convection going at times across our area through the weekend... European model seems to back the NAVY model to some extent while the GEM-GLOBAL model seems to surpress everything far enough to our south to prevent any precipitation from occurring around our area once we get past Saturday.

The theme though is fairly similar between all the models Today with a cold front pushing south-southeast out of our local area by Friday Afternoon with this boundary then remaining off to our south through early next week. Waves of low pressure look to track along this boundary...But how far north the front sets up is where the models are having issues.

Rain is possible across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Friday into Saturday with a threat for thunderstorms on Friday over in Northwest Wisconsin. There's still a possibility that we could see some snow mix in with the rain across parts of Northern Minnesota by Saturday if enough cold air drops south from Central Canada before the first wave of rain exits to the east.

High temperatures on Friday will range from the 50s and 60s in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with 70s even possible around the Hayward/Siren areas...Cooler 40s will be found in Northern Minnesota. Lows Friday Night will be in the 20s and 30s with some 40s in Northwest Wisconsin. Highs Saturday will be in the 40s and 50s with some 30s in Northern Minnesota. Lows Saturday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Partly to mostly sunny. High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night... A few showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 45 to 50. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 20%.

.Friday... Showers possible. High 50 to 55. Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday Night... Showers possible. Low 30 to 35. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday... Showers possible. High 35 to 40. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.

.Sunday... Mostly cloudy. Wet Snow or rain possible. High 35 to 40. Chance of precipitation 20%.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 53 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 32 degrees

Tim

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

4/21/09: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:46 PM CDT, Tuesday, April 21st, 2009

Major winter storm winding down late Today... Here are some snowfall reports out of far Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from the winter storm that has occurred over those areas for the past two days.

Gile WI (Iron County) 17.0"

30 miles Northwest of Grand Marais MN-Rockwood Lodge (Cook County) 10.0"

Grand Marais MN (Cook County) 10.0"

Upson WI (Iron County) 9.0"

Glidden WI (Ashland County) 5.0"

2 miles South of High Bridge WI (Ashland County) 4.0"

Montreal WI (Iron County) 8.0"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

An area of low pressure averaging 998 mb was centered over the Northeast portion of Lake Michigan This Afternoon. Wet snow heavy at times occurring on the backside of this low continued to affect parts of Northwest Wisconsin and far Northeast Minnesota early Today with lingering snow through the Afternoon hours over Iron County in Wisconsin. Precipitation on the backside of the low has exited the area to the east as of late Today. Now were seeing scattered convective type rain showers develop This Afternoon across parts of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin thanks to some daytime heating and cold H5 temps of -28 to -30 degrees C. Low and mid level lapse rates of 6.5-8.5 c/km are also developing across the area This Afternoon which has caused the atmosphere to become unstable enough to support these instability showers. Partly to mostly cloudy skies were found across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today with highs generally in the 50s with 3 PM 850 mb temperatures of zero to +2 degrees C across the local area. Winds were out of the north or northwest Today at 10-20 mph but gusts of 25 to around 40 mph have been occurring in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Potent H5 low was lifting slowly toward the northeast out of the Great Lakes region while a fast northwest flow aloft was present behind this storm over the Upper Midwest. 110 knot H3 winds and 70-80 knot H5 winds were found over the Upper Midwest Today per RUC model analysis. An upper level ridge continued to cover most of the Western U.S. Today with Afternoon 850 mb temperatures underneath this ridge as warm as +20 to +24 degrees C with actual air temperatures in the 80s and 90s.

(Tonight)

Scattered showers will linger This Evening across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as weak instability and cold air aloft continue to produce some activity. There's also an upper level disturbance dropping south-southeast from Western Ontario and this is also helping in producing these rain showers. One last shot of cold air advection will occur later Tonight as this disturbance exits to our south and east. Lows Tonight will be in the 20s and 30s with partly-mostly cloudy skies. Look for north or northwest winds at 5-15 mph...but wind gusts of 20 to 40 mph are possible in the more intense showers through Mid-Evening.

(Wednesday and Wednesday Night)

Our area will remain in a northwesterly flow aloft during this period...However the ridge currently out west will be heading closer to our area during this forecast period. Look for partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies on Wednesday with partly-mostly cloudy skies Wednesday Night. Warm advection will be underway across the area by Wednesday Night as a SW low level jet of 40-55 knots develops and helps to destabilize the atmosphere with mid level lapse rates approaching 6.0-6.5 c/km during the night. If more moisture was present as this warm advection gets underway we would probably see a few elevated thunderstorms develop...But with such a dry airmass overhead I don't believe will see any shower or thunderstorm activity Tomorrow Night. This situation will be monitored though due to the steepening mid level lapse rates and increasing 850 mb jet which will likely lead to an area of mid level clouds and perhaps some virga during the Overnight hours. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Wednesday Night in the 30s and 40s. Winds Tomorrow will be out of the west, south, or northwest around 15 mph or less. Winds Tomorrow Night will be out of the south or east around 15 mph or less.

(Extended Forecast)

High temperatures on Thursday should have no problem rising into the 60s and 70s across the local area with 80s even possible toward the Brainerd/Pine City/Siren areas. The exception to this could be along the North Shore of Lake Superior where southeast winds could occur...and if that happens then high temps would be in the 40s and 50s from Downtown Duluth up the North Shore on Thursday. Strong warm advection will continue on Thursday as 850 mb temperatures rise to +12 to +18 degrees C across the area. Dewpoints will also start to come up with 40s and some 50s developing during the day as a cold front moves in from the northwest.

The atmosphere will become unstable across Northern, Eastcentral, and Northeast Minnesota ahead of this boundary Thursday Afternoon and Night with mid level lapse rates of 7.0-8.0 c/km...CAPES around 1000 j/kg and LI'S around -2 to -4 degrees C. 30-45 knot W/SW 500 mb winds and around 40 knots of SW winds at 850 mb will be present along with more of a southerly wind at the surface. Result from all this is that there will be shear in the atmosphere.

0-6 KM Bulk Shear per SREF 15z model run from Today shows about 30-50 knots across Northeast Minnesota with Effective Bulk Shear running around 30 knots or less across the same area. 0-3 KM SRH Thursday Afternoon and Evening will range from around 200 m2/s2 to 350 m2/s2 with 0-1 KM SRH around 150 m2/s2...

All the parameters I mentioned above would support the development of some thunderstorm activity near the cold front as it drops southeast into Northcentral/Eastcentral/and Northeast Minnesota from Thursday Afternoon into Thursday Night with a risk for a few of these thunderstorms to become severe. Right now it appears that hail and gusty winds would be the main threats if storms develop.

About the only thing that worries me right now continues to be the lack of real deep moisture as I don't believe DP'S will get much higher than 50 degrees around our local area. This in turn could cut back on the amount of instability that the forecast models are currently showing for Thursday...Since the NAM/GFS continue to show DP'S climbing through the 50s hence the higher CAPE values being generated by those models. Also with such a warm airmass moving in above us this could lead to a capping inversion and if that happens...Then thunderstorms probably wouldn't get going until after 9 PM on Thursday unless the lift/forcing is strong enough near this boundary to break through the cap before Thursday Evening.

This situation will continue to be monitored for any possible changes.

The period from Friday through the weekend will feature the cold front sagging south and east out of the local area as high pressure heads east through Central Canada. Rain will be possible at times along and north of this front from Friday through the weekend with thunderstorms possible Friday and Friday Night...Mainly in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota. There are differences showing up in the forecast models Today as to where the front sets up once it passes our local area. The farther south it moves the lesser the rain threat would be around here.

Colder air also looks to drain in off of that high to our north on NE surface winds from Friday Night through the weekend. Result from this will be for any rain that lingers during this period in Northern Minnesota to possibly mix with wet snow or maybe even some freezing rain at times.

Back to the temperature forecast... Look for lows Thursday Night to be in the 40s and 50s with highs Friday in the 40s and 50s, but some spots in Northern Minnesota could see temperatures fall into the 30s during the day while areas around Hayward/Park Falls/and Pine City could see highs in the 60s. Lows Friday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Breezy This Evening with a few showers possible. Variable cloudiness with skies becoming partly cloudy late. Low 30 to 35. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 35 mph through Mid-Evening.

Wednesday... Mostly sunny. High 51 to 56. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 35 to 40. Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Partly to mostly sunny. High 70 to 75.

.Thursday Night... A few showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 45 to 50. Chance of precipitation 20%.

.Friday... Showers possible. High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of precipitation 30%.

.Friday Night... Showers possible. Low 30 to 35. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday... Showers possible. High 35 to 40. Chance of rain 30%.

Normal High Temperature Today 52 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 31 degrees

Tim

Monday, April 20, 2009

4/20/09: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:39 PM CDT, Monday, April 20th, 2009

Following headlines issued by the National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota:

*Winter Storm Warning* in effect until 9 PM CDT Tonight for the following counties in Northeast Minnesota: Cook and Northern Lake. Some cities included in the warning are: Pigeon River...Grand Portage...Grand Marais...Hovland...Lutsen...Tofte...And Forest Center... Wet snow possibly mixed with rain will continue across the warning area through Tonight. Some of the snow could be moderate to locally heavy at times. Snowfall accumulations so far have varied between 3" to 6" as of earlier Today...Additional snowfall amounts of 1-4" are possible Tonight with storm total accumulations of 4-10" by Morning. Use extreme caution if you will be doing any traveling in the Arrowhead of Minnesota Tonight as roads could be snow covered and slippery.

*Winter Weather Advisory* in effect until 12 PM CDT Tuesday for the following counties in Northwest Wisconsin: Ashland and Iron. Some cities included in the advisory are: Ashland...Mellen...Glidden...Butternut...Hurley...Upson...And Mercer... Wet snow possibly mixed with rain will continue across the advisory area through early Tuesday Afternoon. Total snowfall accumulations of 3-8" are possible by Tuesday Afternoon. Use caution if you will be doing any traveling in Northwest Wisconsin as roads could be snow covered and slippery in some locations.

Here are some snowfall reports across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Sunday and earlier Today...

Gile WI (Iron County) 2.5"

Grand Portage MN (Cook County) 5.0"

30 miles Northwest of Grand Marais MN (Cook County) 6.0"-Rockwood Lodge

Lutsen MN (Cook County) 4.0"

Silver Bay MN (Lake County) 3.8"

Devils Track Lake MN (Cook County) 6.0"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin:

(Today's Weather)

Skies were cloudy over most of the area Today with some peeks of sun occurring from time to time out toward Koochiching...Itasca...and Cass Counties in Minnesota. Spring snow storm of 2009 continued to hit parts of the Arrowhead of Minnesota down into Northwest Wisconsin with more wet snow which has been heavy at times Today...Rain has also mixed in with the snow at times across Northwest Wisconsin. Scattered rain showers have also occurred away from the steady precipitation that has been affecting far Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today. Another day of chilly temperatures covered the area with highs in the 30s and 40s with 4 PM CDT 850 mb temperatures of -2 to -4 degrees C... Winds Today were out of the north or northwest at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts. Weather map at 4 PM CDT Today featured an area of low pressure averaging 998 mb centered over Northern lower Michigan and Northern Lake Michigan with high pressure averaging 1018 mb centered over the Dakotas.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

H5 low was in the process of deepening across the Great Lakes Today with 12 hour H5 height falls of 120 meters centered over Northern Illinois-Southern Wisconsin. Northwest flow aloft was evident behind this storm Today across the Northern Plains while a big upper level ridge covered the Southwest and Western U.S. toward the Central Rockies. H85 temps underneath this upper ridge were as warm as +22 to +24 degrees C Today with daytime highs well into the 80s, 90s, and low 100s!

(Tonight)

Low pressure will continue to deepen over the Lake Michigan/Northern lower Michigan area. 850 mb winds are expected to increase to 45-60 knots during the night which could lead to some pretty strong north to northwest winds across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin during the night as this whole storm system intensifies. Winds of 10-25 mph will likely occur...but wind gusts of 30 to possibly 35 mph may develop Overnight. Look for mostly cloudy skies Tonight with wet snow and rain affecting Northwest Wisconsin and far Northeast Minnesota with scattered mainly rain showers occur elsewhere...mainly before Midnight. Lows Tonight will be in the 20s and 30s.

(Tuesday and Tuesday Night)

Cold upper level trough along with a surface and upper level low will continue to sit and spin across the Central Great Lakes during this forecast period. End result will be for a continued NW H5 flow across our local area. Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies with some possible rain showers on Tuesday in Northwest Wisconsin and far Northeast Minnesota. Wet snow will likely persist into Tuesday Morning over parts of far Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s and 30s. Winds will out of the north or west at 10-20 mph on Tuesday with gusts around 30 mph possible. Winds Tuesday Night will relax to around 15 mph or less.

Extended Forecast

Will finally see the system currently over the Great Lakes pull into Eastern Canada by mid-week which will allow for a piece of the upper ridge currently over the Western U.S. to push into our area by Thursday. The ridge won't last very long though due to a cold front which is forecast to push south-southeast and stall out south of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Friday into Saturday. The warmest days look to occur Wednesday and especially on Thursday with much cooler air moving in later this week into the upcoming weekend the way it looks now. High temperatures on Wednesday will be mostly in the 50s with a few 60s possible. Highs on Thursday will be in the 60s and 70s but some 80s can't be ruled out...mainly around the Brainerd area. Low temperatures Wednesday Night will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Thursday Night in the 40s and 50s. Will have to keep an eye on how the surface winds setup on Thursday near Lake Superior as they could have an easterly component to them...if that happens then high temps would hold in the 40s and 50s near Lake Superior on Thursday.

Scattered showers or thunderstorms will be possible across the area from Thursday Evening through Friday Night with some threat for a few severe thunderstorms Thursday Evening over Eastcentral Minnesota and on Friday in Northwest Wisconsin. The forecast models Today are showing some pretty good amounts of instability developing around our area on Thursday with capes around 1000 j/kg and LI'S around -2 degrees C. Shear also looks decent with around 35-45 knots of H5 winds and 850 mb winds around 40 knots. There also looks to be a slight change in wind direction with height on Thursday. The only limiting factors right now seem to be a lack of real deep moisture as dewpoints will likely only climb through the 40s and possibly the low 50s while 850 mb td's remain generally under +10 degrees C. Also an elevated mixed layer or capping inversion may spread into our area as H85 temps sky rocket toward the +14 to +18 degree C range on Thursday.. This situation will continue to be watched in the coming days for any possible changes that may occur.

Some lingering rain showers are possible into the weekend, but it appears that the surface front may push far enough to our south to prevent any additional rain from falling after Saturday.

Temperatures continue to look cold enough over parts of Northern Minnesota to support a mixture of rain or snow from Friday Night into Saturday.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Breezy. Cloudy with some light rain and drizzle. Low 30 to 35. Wind north at 15 to 25 mph.

.Tuesday... Considerable cloudiness. Breezy. High 45 to 50. Wind north to northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Clearing. Low 30 to 35. Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Mostly sunny. High 50 to 55.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75.

.Thursday Night... A few showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 40 to 45. Chance of precipitation 20%.

.Friday... A few showers possible. High 45 to 50 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of precipitation 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 51 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 31 degrees

Tim

Sunday, April 19, 2009

4/19/09: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:56 PM CDT, Sunday, April 19th, 2009

Following headlines issued by the National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota:

*Winter Weather Advisory* in effect until 6 AM CDT Tuesday for the following counties in Northwest Wisconsin: Ashland and Iron. Some cities included in the advisory are: Ashland... Mellen... Hurley... And Upson. Potential exists for 3-7" of slushy wet snow by Tuesday Morning. Most of the snow that falls will accumulate mainly on grassy surfaces, but some roads could become snow and slush covered so use caution if you will be doing any traveling in the advisory area through Tuesday Morning. Wet snow mixed with rain will continue through Tuesday Morning as low pressure heads toward Lake Michigan.

*Winter Weather Advisory* in effect until 6 PM CDT Monday for the following counties in Northeast Minnesota: Cook and Northern Lake. Some cities included in the advisory are: Grand Portage... Grand Marais... Lutsen... Tofte... And Forest Center. 3-6" of wet slushy snow are possible in the advisory area by Monday Evening. Most of the snow that falls will accumulate mainly on grassy surfaces...But some snow and slush could accumulate on some roads...especially in higher elevated areas and away from Lake Superior. 1-2" of snow had already fallen Today near Finland and Lutsen in the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Look for wet snow mixed with rain at times to linger in the advisory area through Monday Evening as low pressure heads toward Lake Michigan.

Rainfall total in West Duluth Today: Around 0.20"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin:

(Today's Weather)

What a huge change compared to Friday as temperatures are running a good 30 to 45 degrees colder Today compared to just two days ago. Skies were generally overcast across the entire area Today with some peeks for sun occurring This Afternoon...mainly toward the Brainerd/Pine River/Squaw Lake areas. Rain has been pretty persistent Today over most of Northwest Wisconsin with radar rainfall estimates of .15"-.30" across Bayfield/Ashland/and Sawyer counties. Areas of light rain have also fallen at times Today farther west into Eastern and Northeast Minnesota with amounts ranging from a few hundreths to around .20" Today. Colder air moving south from Canada has even caused the rain to turn over to wet snow Today in the Arrowhead of Minnesota with 1.8" of snow reported 3 miles North-Northeast of Finland Minnesota (Lake County) and 1.5" of snow in Lutsen (Cook County) as of early This Afternoon. High temperatures Today were only in the 30s and 40s with 4 PM CDT 850 mb temperatures around zero degrees C across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Winds across the area were from the northeast or north Today around 20 mph or less. Weather map as of 4 PM CDT Today featured an area of low pressure averaging 1004 mb centered over Southern Illinois with high pressure of 1030 mb centered over Southern Hudson Bay Canada. Low pressure averaging 1016 mb was centered near Fargo North Dakota.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

H5 low was heading E-NE out of Northern Arkansas with another H5 low dropping southeast from Southern Manitoba Province. A broad upper level trough was in the process of developing across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes due to the energy to the south and the energy moving in from the west-northwest. This whole trough will become negatively tilted early this week as it covers the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile an upper level ridge covered California...Nevada...Utah...and Arizona with H85 temps around +20 degrees C and high temps in the 80s/90s over parts of California Today.

(Tonight through Monday Night)

Low pressure will be heading north-northeast toward Lake Michigan or Lower Michigan during this period while pockets of upper level energy currently to our west and northwest phase with the storm moving up from the southeast. It's a complex weather system that promises to keep unsettled weather going through this forecast period. Northwest Wisconsin and far Northeast Minnesota will have the best chance for seeing more persistent wet snow and rain through Monday Night while the remainder of the area should see more scattered type rain showers. Several inches of Spring snow is expected to fall by Monday Night in far Northeast Minnesota as well as over parts of Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Tonight and Monday Night will be in the 20s and 30s with highs Monday in the 30s and 40s. Winds starting out fairly light Tonight around 15 mph or less will increase Monday and Monday Night to 10-25 mph with gusts around 30 mph as the storm itself starts to deepen to our east-southeast. Northeast, north, or northwest winds will be found across the area through Monday Night along with quite a bit of cloudiness.

(Extended Forecast)

Low pressure and a negatively tilted upper level trough will begin to pull east-northeast away from our area Tuesday and should be to our east by Wednesday. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies across the area on Tuesday with a threat for a few lingering rain showers in far Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with some wet snow still possible early in the day in those areas. Tuesday Night and Wednesday look dry for the entire area. Highs Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Tuesday Night in the 20s and 30s. Highs Wednesday will be in the 50s with a few locations out west possibly nearing 60 degrees. Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.

Model agreement becomes very poor by late this week into next weekend which isn't too surprising. Seems like the models are trending farther south with where the surface front/baroclinic zone develop later this week and next weekend. This will do a few things...One it would cause temperatures to be much colder than if these features were more to the north. Second it could eliminate any threat for convection. And third it could create precipitation type issues...

Details as they stand right now include a warm Thursday then turning cooler from Friday through Sunday as a cold front heads south-east and stalls out...well south of our local area during that time. Energy riding along this front from time to time could cause periods of rain from later this week into next weekend...Very cold airmass with H85 temps as low as -10 degrees C will be developing in Central Canada by next weekend and some of this air may try to edge south toward Northern Minnesota. If that happens...Then it's not entirely out of the question that we could see some snow or even some freezing rain mix in with the rain at times mainly in Northern areas of Minnesota.

It should be noted that the latest set of models have really diverged with how everything sets up later next week and next weekend...Additional changes will likely take place with the models over the coming days.

Our best chance to see any thunderstorm activity across our local area would come in the Thursday Night through Friday time period per latest forecast model guidance since that's when there appears to be enough elevated instability and negative LI'S near our area to support such a risk.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy. Patchy light rain or drizzle possible. Low 30 to 33. Wind northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday... Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Light rain possible. High 40 to 45. Wind north at 15 to 25 mph.

.Monday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Breezy. Low 28 to 32. Wind north to northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. High 47 to 53.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 51 to 56.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 51 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 31 degrees

Tim

Saturday, April 18, 2009

4/18/09: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:56 PM CDT, Saturday, April 18th, 2009

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

The warmest temperatures as expected occurred across Northwest Wisconsin Today where high temperatures climbed into the 50s and 60s but cooler 40s developed This Afternoon along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin. High temperatures across Northeast Minnesota were in the 40s and 50s Today but readings had fallen into the 30s along the North Shore of Lake Superior This Afternoon. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM CDT ranged from +2 to +6 degrees C across Northwest Wisconsin through Northcentral and Eastcentral Minnesota with zero to -4 degree C H85 temps lurking just to our north... Skies across the area were partly to mostly cloudy Today with winds out of the north, northwest, or east at 5-15 mph with some higher gusts. Surface map This Afternoon features a cold front centered from Central Wisconsin down into Southern Minnesota with high pressure of 1034 mb over Southern Hudson Bay/Northern Ontario. Low pressure of 1012 mb was centered over Southwest Kansas with a 1020 mb low centered over Western Saskatchewan.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

500 mb low has finally left the Southwest U.S. and now was centered over Southwest Kansas-Southeast Colorado This Afternoon. Another potent upper level low was heading east through Southwestern Saskatchewan... A broad upper level trough was developing from the Northern Rockies through the Plains in response to these two pieces of energy.

(Tonight)

Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies with a chance for some light rain later in the night mainly over Northwest Wisconsin back through Eastcentral Minnesota. Lows Tonight will be in the 30s and 40s with some 20s possible in the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Winds will be out of the north or east at 5-15 mph with some higher gusts possible.

(Sunday and Sunday Night)

Upper level energy will approach the area from the west-northwest during this period while the low over Southwest Kansas heads east-northeast. Look for mostly cloudy skies across most of the area during this period with areas of rain possible over Northwest Wisconsin into Eastern and Northeast Minnesota. 850 mb temperatures are forecast to fall to around zero to -4 degrees C by Sunday Night and this could cause the rain to mix with or change to wet snow...Mainly over parts of Northwest Wisconsin into far Northeast Minnesota. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Sunday Night in the 20s and 30s. Winds on Sunday will be out of the north or east at 10-20 mph with winds Sunday Night out of the north, northwest, or northeast at 10-20 mph.

At this time it appears that the best chance for accumulating snowfall will occur east of our local area from Sunday Night into Monday with Northeast Wisconsin and Upper Michigan possibly picking up 2-4" or more of wet snow during that time.

(Extended Forecast)

Low pressure will reach the Ohio Valley/Eastern Great Lakes region from Monday into Tuesday with a NW flow aloft across the Upper Midwest on the backside of this system. Some lingering rain showers are possible over the area early next week due to some moisture wrapping around that system to our east along with an area of cold air aloft moving overhead. Some wet snow could mix in with the rain into Monday Morning over far Northeast Minnesota into parts of Northwest Wisconsin. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night in the 20s and 30s.

As we deal with an H5 flow early next week the Western U.S. will be under the grips of an early season heat wave as an H5 ridge builds into areas west of the Rockies... The trough over our area early in the week is forecast to push off to our east by mid to late week as energy starts to drop southeast out of Western Canada... The whole upper level pattern should then transition to a southwest flow aloft with troughing moving into the Western U.S. while a ridge develops from the Southern to Eastern U.S... In other words the atmosphere will be undergoing some major changes during the next week.

It should be dry across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Wednesday and Thursday...But the period from Thursday Night through next weekend could feature some rounds of showers and thunderstorms...

A frontal boundary still looks like it will set up somewhere over the Upper Midwest later next week into next weekend while low pressure develops to our west and southwest. Southerly flow developing ahead of this low should start to pull more moisture into our area with dewpoints rising into the 40s and 50s later next week. Instability should also increase with surface and elevated capes possibly reaching or exceeding 1000 j/kg later next week and next weekend.

Depending on where exactly this front sets up and the timing of the actual surface low coming in from the west will determine where the best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be and what day/s will hold the best chance for rain.

The potential does exist for some severe thunderstorm activity over parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin between Thursday Night and next weekend based on latest projections per forecast models.

The next problem will be temperatures and this will prove to be quite difficult until the exact position of the front is known.

If the front/baroclinic zone remains to our west and north...Then high temps in the 60s, 70s, and maybe even some 80s would occur from Thursday into Saturday with overnight lows generally in the 50s... If the front wavers back and fourth or sets up more to the south...Then a wide range in temperatures would occur around our local area with 50s...60s...and 70s for west and southern areas while 40s occur near Lake Superior and in far Northern Minnesota.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Considerable cloudiness. Light rain possible Overnight. Low 30 to 35. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday... Mostly cloudy. Light rain possible. High 35 to 40. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night... Considerable cloudiness. Light rain possible early. Low 25 to 30. Wind northeast to north at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday... Variable cloudiness. Showers possible. High 45 to 50. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday Night... Becoming partly cloudy. Low 27 to 32.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. High 47 to 53.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 25 to 30.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 51 to 56.

Normal High Temperature Today 50 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 30 degrees

Tim

Friday, April 17, 2009

4/17/09: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:04 PM CDT, Friday, April 17th, 2009

Note: The Duluth Airport was just 9 degrees off from the record high temperature Today of 82 degrees which occurred in 1987. The high temperature at the Duluth Airport reached 73 degrees Today.

Forecast concerns/Weather Headlines:

Very warm day over most of the area...

Much cooler and a bit breezy this weekend...

Will it get cold enough for snow on Sunday?

Thunderstorm threat later next week...

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin:

(Today's Weather)

Warm southwesterly winds developed and over took the lake cooling which resulted in a very warm day even for locations near Lake Superior...Partly sunny to sunny skies prevailed Today with daytime highs in the 60s and 70s with 4 PM 850 mb temperatures of +8 to +10 degrees C across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Winds across the area were out of the southwest and west at 5-15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph. Surface map late Today featured a cold front centered over Central Minnesota with a 1010 mb low centered over Southern Colorado-Northern New Mexico with a 1032 mb high centered over Eastern Saskatchewan.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Large H5 low continued to reside over the Southwest U.S. with showers and thunderstorms developing once again Today to the east and northeast of this low from Nebraska down to Eastern Texas. An upper level trough was spreading east-southeast over the Pacific Northwest and Western Canada Today while a large upper level ridge covered areas along and east of the Mississippi River.

(Tonight)

Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies with the cold front currently in Central Minnesota continuing to sag south-east through the night. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s with winds out of the southwest, north, or northwest at 5 to around 20 mph.

(Saturday and Saturday Night)

Cold front will exit Northwest Wisconsin Tomorrow Morning with high pressure remaining to our northwest. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies across the area during this period with highs Saturday in the 40s and 50s with some 60s possible before Noon over parts of Northwest Wisconsin. Temperatures could drop into the 30s Saturday Afternoon over parts of Northeast Minnesota. Lows Saturday Night will be in the 20s and 30s. Winds during this period will shift from the north and northwest into the east and northeast at 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

The large storm which was over the Southwest U.S. Today will be tracking into the Southern and Central Plains this weekend before it lifts toward the Ohio Valley early next week. A trough extending north of this low combined with some energy moving in from the Pacific Northwest could lead to some areas of rain over parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Sunday into Sunday Evening...The latest model guidance continues to struggle with just how much precipitation will fall around our local area later this weekend...So confidence at this point remains fairly low. Also with colder air moving into the area we could see the rain mix with or even change to some wet snow at times later this weekend. I believe the HPC forecast of 4" snow amounts over parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Sunday is way over done...but the situation does bear watching. Highs on Sunday will only be in the 30s and 40s with lows Sunday Night in the 20s and 30s.

Northwest flow aloft will then develop across the area early next week with some disturbances embedded within this flow dropping through the Upper Midwest. This in combination with some very cold air aloft and some daytime heating could result in the development of a few showers Monday and Tuesday over parts of the area. Isolated thunder could also occur in the most intense showers that may develop during peak heating hours. Highs on Monday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Monday Night in the 20s and 30s.

The long range forecast models Today seem to be trending toward what the GFS model has been showing for days as we reach the latter part of next week... The setup includes low pressure forming off to our west and southwest with a warm frontal boundary likely developing over parts of the Upper Midwest. Again exact details this far out are far from certain but the pattern that may develop is one that could result in some rounds of showers and thunderstorms over parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin later next week and possibly into next weekend. Isolated severe weather events may occur during that time over parts of the Upper Midwest depending on how this all sets up and also depending on the amount of warmth...moisture...and instability that's able to spread this far north. It does appear that were going to see a pretty large temperature gradient become established later next week from northeast to southwest as a baroclinic zone tightens up with the warmest air in southwest locations and the coolest air to the northeast.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly cloudy. Low 35 to 40. Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph with some gusts around 25 mph. Wind becoming north at 5 to 15 mph.

Saturday... Partly to mostly cloudy. Turning Much cooler. High 46 to 51 with falling temperatures. Wind becoming east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night... Breezy. Considerable cloudiness. Low 30 to 35. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts around 25 mph.

.Sunday... Breezy. Mostly cloudy. High 35 to 40. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts around 25 mph.

.Sunday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 25 to 30.

.Monday... Variable cloudiness. Showers possible. High 47 to 53. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday Night... Becoming partly cloudy. Low 27 to 32.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. High 47 to 53.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 50 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 30 degrees

Tim