Tuesday, March 31, 2009

3/31/09: Winter Storm Update Number 3

Issued at 10:09 PM CDT, Tuesday, March 31st, 2009

*Winter Storm Warning* continues until 7 AM CDT for Duluth/Superior...This includes the counties of St. Louis and Douglas...

At 9 PM CDT...Low pressure of 993 mb was centered near the Granite Falls and Montevideo areas in Southwestern Minnesota while the 500 mb low had lifted into Southcentral Minnesota. The dry slot which occurred earlier This Evening had moved out of the local area and now were seeing more precipitation develop around parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as we approach the late Evening hour.

Across Northwest Wisconsin precipitation continued to fall as rain...Or a mix of rain and sleet... with mainly snow over in Minnesota...Although some rain and sleet has mixed in at times This Evening mainly from Duluth south across Carlton/Pine Counties... Some of this precipitation has been heavy...Pretty similar to what occurred earlier Today.

This precipitation was forming north-northeast of the surface/upper level low... Latest RUC model guidance shows the low pressure center lifting north-northeast...Likely passing very close to Duluth by 7 AM Wednesday...

Bands of precipitation should continue to develop north of the low as forcing and lift continue across our area Overnight... Some of this precipitation will continue to be heavy at times... Snow should be the main precipitation type in Northeast Minnesota with some mixed precipitation still possible mainly over Pine and Carlton counties til around 1-2 AM... Over in Northwest Wisconsin expect to see the mixed precip gradually turn over to snow from south to north...But this probably won't happen until after 2 AM...

Additional snowfall amounts Overnight should range from 1-4" across the entire area with some locally higher amounts possible, mainly over the Arrowhead/North Shore of Lake Superior areas...The lower end of these snow totals will continue to be found in Northwestern Wisconsin.

As of 9 PM CDT Tonight the 32 degree temperature contour had lifted northwest and extended from Southwest Koochiching through extreme Northeast Aitkin to the St. Louis/Carlton County line... The 32 degree wet bulb temperature contour extended from Southeast Aitkin through Western-Northeast Douglas County to far Northwest Bayfield County...

12 hour H5 height falls of 120-150 meters have pushed into Central...Eastern...and Southern Minnesota This Evening as this whole storm system starts to push toward the north-northeast.

Tim

3/31/09: Winter Weather Headline Information

Issued at 4:26 PM CDT, Tuesday, March 31st, 2009

Note: Snowfall total in West Duluth varies between 3-4" as of 4 PM Today...Were now seeing light drizzle and light freezing drizzle with strong east-northeast winds...The snow which wasn't wet about 3 hours ago has morphed into a concrete/wet/slushy type of snow as temperatures warm toward freezing as the dry slot moves overhead...

*Winter Storm Warning* now in effect until Noon CDT Wednesday for the following counties in Minnesota: Northern St. Louis... Lake... And Cook... Some cities included in the warning are: Orr... Crane Lake... Two Harbors... Finland... Lutsen... Isabella... Tofte... Little Marais... Beaver Bay... And Grand Marais... Snow heavy at times will continue to fall in the warning through Wednesday Morning...Although the snow may end for a time This Evening before it picks back up once again later Tonight. Snowfall rates could approach 1-2" an hour in the most intense snow bands... Gusty east to northeast winds at 15-35 mph will cause blowing and drifting snow and whiteout conditions during times of heavy falling snow. Snowfall accumulations so far Today have generally ranged from 4-8" in the warning area...Another 2-6" of snow is expected through Wednesday which will bring storm totals to 6-14"... Travel will continue to be extremely difficult or impossible through Wednesday...

*Winter Storm Warning* in effect until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for the following counties... In Minnesota: Koochiching... Itasca... Cass... Crow Wing... Aitkin... Central and Southern St. Louis... Carlton... And Pine... In Wisconsin: Douglas... Burnett... Washburn... And Bayfield... Some cities included in the warning are: International Falls... Littlefork... Bigfork... Grand Rapids... Cass Lake... Walker... Brainerd... Aitkin... Hill City... McGregor... Hibbing... Cotton... Floodwood... Duluth... Esko... Cloquet... Cromwell... Moose Lake... Hinckley... Pine City... Superior... Solon Springs... Siren... Grantsburg... Spooner... Minong... Shell Lake... Port Wing... And Bayfield... Areas of snow will continue over Koochiching and Itasca Counties in Minnesota This Evening while areas of drizzle...and freezing drizzle occur for the rest of the area covered by this warning... Be advise that areas of fog could also develop This Evening...Especially from Duluth-Superior on south. Another round of snow is then forecast to overspread the warning area from south to north between 7 PM-10 PM Tonight... Additional snow is then expected Overnight through Wednesday Morning... Snowfall totals Today have generally ranged from 2-6" in the warning area with another 2-5" of snow expected through Wednesday Morning... Storm total accumulations of 4-11" are expected with the highest amounts falling west and northwest of Duluth. Gusty east to northeast winds will continue Tonight at 15-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph near Lake Superior. The wind will decrease from south to north later in the night. Areas of blowing and drifting snow will continue Tonight with whiteout or near whiteout conditions possible as the heavier snow bands move through. Travel will continue to be very difficult through Wednesday in the warning area.

*Winter Weather Advisory* is in effect until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for the following counties in Wisconsin: Ashland... Iron... Sawyer... And Price... Some cities included in the advisory are: Ashland... Hurley... Hayward... And Park Falls... Look for areas of rain, sleet, and snow This Evening to change over to snow Overnight and on Wednesday. Total snow accumulations of 2-4" are possible in the advisory area by Wednesday with the higher totals expected to be over Ashland and Iron Counties. Use extreme caution if you will be traveling through Wednesday as roads will be wet in spots and ice covered or slushy in other areas.

*Flood Warning* now in effect until 130 PM CDT Thursday for Southwestern Cass County in Northcentral Minnesota... At 125 PM CDT Tuesday...Flooding continued along the Crow Wing River... During the past 24 hours river levels have decreased slightly.

*Flood Warning* in effect until further notice for the Mississippi River at Aitkin Minnesota...This includes Aitkin County in Eastcentral Minnesota... At 10 AM CDT Tuesday...The stage was 15 feet. Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast... Flood stage is 12 feet... The river will continue to slowly receed... At 15 feet minor flooding of low lying areas occurs in Aitkin.

*Flood Warning* in effect for the Mississippi River at Fort Ripley Minnesota including Crow Wing County in Eastcentral Minnesota until Tuesday, April 7th, 2009...Or until the warning is cancelled... At 10 AM CDT Tuesday...The stage was 11.5 feet... Flood stage is 10 feet. The river will continue to fall below flood stage by early Tuesday Morning, April 7th, 2009...

Tim

3/31/09: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:30 PM CDT, Tuesday, March 31st, 2009

-Forecast is working out quite well so far as this latest winter storm moves through the area...

-Main forecast concerns deal with the dry slot moving in right now... The threat for freezing drizzle under the dry slot...

-Attention will then turn back to the strong upper level low which could bring another round of snow to parts of the area Tonight and Wednesday...

-Long term issues deal with the big storm this weekend and how far north will it track...Very amplified/blocky type pattern set to develop across the U.S. this weekend into most of next week...

-No signs of Spring at least through next week...

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

At 3 PM CDT...Low pressure of 992 mb had moved into Southwest Minnesota... This low has been moving very slow as it was over Southeast South Dakota around 2 AM This Morning and now has just crossed into Southwest Minnesota as of 3 PM Today. Strongest pressure falls This Afternoon have shifted into Northern Minnesota so we should see the low head up into that general direction...But it will be slow to do so. Widespread snow fell most of the day across Northeast Minnesota with some very heavy bands of snow embedded within the larger area of light snow... Whiteout and near whiteout conditions have been widespread at times Today across Northeast Minnesota due to the heavy snow and blowing snow... Warmer air was found over most of Northwest Wisconsin Today which led to a mix bag of snow...sleet...rain...and even some freezing rain... High temperatures around the area were generally in the 20s and 30s with 40s over parts of Northwest Wisconsin. Winds were out of the east to northeast at 15-25 mph Today with gusts from 30 to 45 mph...Especially around Lake Superior.

Snowfall totals through mid-Afternoon Today have ranged from 2-8" across Northern Minnesota and parts of Northwest Wisconsin... The heaviest totals so far have occurred along the North Shore of Lake Superior with the least amount of snow across Northwest Wisconsin into far Eastern Minnesota...

Here in Duluth...About 3-4" of snow has fallen so far...Ending at 3 PM Today.

(Today's Upper Air Analysis)

A large and powerful upper level and surface low pressure area was shifting north-northeast from the Northwest Iowa/far Southeast South Dakota/Southwest Minnesota area... Strong 150 meter 12 hour H5 height falls were occurring Today out ahead of this intense storm from Southern Minnesota to Central Iowa. A dry slot continued to shift north and northwest and covered much of Central and Eastern Minnesota through parts of Northwest Wisconsin as of mid-Afternoon...This has caused the precipitation to taper off to areas of freezing drizzle, drizzle, and flurries...But now there's scattered convective type precipiation elements firing off northeast of the H5 low over parts of Western Wisconsin back toward the Twin Cities area...This precipitation was lifting north-northeast... 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM CDT Today ranged from zero to -4 degrees C across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

(Tonight)

Look for snow to continue across the Arrowhead and far Northern parts of Minnesota through the night as the dry slot shouldn't really affect those areas... Elsewhere look for a lull in the precipitation early with areas of freezing drizzle, drizzle, along with some light rain or snow... Might also see some patchy fog mainly over Southern parts of the area This Evening... From mid-Evening through the Overnight hours look for the surface low which was over Southwest Minnesota This Afternoon to lift north-northeast...Likely reaching Eastcentral Minnesota Overnight. The intense H5 low will also shift north-east toward Eastern Minnesota during the Overnight hours. We should see an expansion of snow as this upper low moves in and results in some extra lift in the atmosphere... Lows Tonight will be in the 20s and 30s. Look for east to northeast winds at 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts before Midnight. Winds will begin to shift into the south and west over Southern parts of the area later Tonight.

(Wednesday and Wednesday Night)

Surface low and upper level area of low pressure will be pulling north-northeast across the local area on Wednesday before exiting to our north by Wednesday Night. Look for additional areas of snow around the area on Wednesday with another few inches of accumulation possible, mainly in Northeast Minnesota. Lingering flurries or snow showers are possible Wednesday Night but additional accumulations are not expected... Highs Wednesday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Wednesday Night in the teens and 20s. Look for south, east, west, or northwest winds on Wednesday with west or northwest winds Wednesday Night. Wind speeds will generally be in the 10 to 20 mph range during this period.

Snowfall storm total accumulations by Wednesday Afternoon should go as follows:

Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...Carlton...Southern St. Louis...And Pine Counties in Minnesota should end up with 4-8" of accumulation...

Koochiching...Itasca...Central-Northern St. Louis...Lake...And Cook Counties in Minnesota should end up with 5-12" of accumulation...

Douglas...Burnett...Washburn...Bayfield...Sawyer...Price...Ashland...And Iron Counties in Wisconsin should end up with anywhere from 1-5" with the higher totals found across Burnett...Douglas...And Bayfield Counties...

(Extended Forecast)

Thursday and Friday look generally dry and quiet around the area as the next strong storm system currently over the Pacific Northwest takes the southern route and stays away from our local area later this week. Look for highs to be in the 30s and 40s Thursday and Friday with lows mostly in the 20s. Another strong storm is forecast to take shape across the Rockies this weekend with the low expected to pull out into the Plains later this weekend... Exact track of this storm is highly uncertain right now with plenty of model difference showing up this far out... The Navy-Nogaps is the farthest west-north with the storm track while the Gem-Global/Gfs/Euro offer a more southern solution... This storm will have to be watched since if it comes far enough north it could bring another round of wind/snow/rain to parts of the local area later this weekend or early next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*Winter Storm Warning* in effect until 7 AM CDT Wednesday...

.Tonight... Windy This Evening... Occasional light freezing drizzle...Light snow...And flurries This Evening... Snow redeveloping between 9 PM and 11 PM with some snow lingering through the Overnight hours... Additional snowfall of 1-3" possible by Morning. Low 25 to 30. Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 35 mph... Wind decreasing to 10 to 20 mph Overnight.

.Wednesday... Light snow and flurries... Additional accumulations under an inch. Storm totals will range from 4-8"... High 30 to 35. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph early...Becoming southwest at 10 to 20 mph during the Morning.

.Wednesday Night... Flurries. Mostly cloudy. Low 20 to 25. Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday... Mostly cloudy. High 31 to 37.

.Thursday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 35 to 40.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 35 to 40.

Normal High Temperature Today 41 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 23 degrees

Tim

3/31/09: Winter Storm Update Number 2

Issued at 1:40 PM CDT, Tuesday, March 31st, 2009

*Winter Storm Warning* continues until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for Duluth/Superior...Including Southern St. Louis and Douglas Counties...

At 1 PM CDT...Low pressure averaging 992 mb was centered over far Northwest Iowa. This low has moved very little during the past 12 hours or so. A dry slot is lifting north as expected and extends from south of Sturgeon Lake in Northern Pine County Minnesota...east through Northern Burnett...Northern Washburn...and Sawyer Counties in Northwest Wisconsin. Still seeing some intense snow bands develop on the nose of this advancing dry slot. Many of these snow bands have been dropping close to an inch per hour snowfall rates Today. The problem seems to be that these bands haven't been lasting more than 10-15 minutes for most locations, and this could lead to less snowfall than previously expected for most of the area... The exception to this seems to be along the North Shore of Lake Superior where snow totals as of early This Afternoon ranged from 4-6" already with several more inches likely to occur in that area through This Evening.

As for Duluth...Snow will persist through 3 PM, but it will end shortly thereafter...Until then, expect brief periods of near whiteout conditions to persist as the heavier snow bands move through the city...This combined with east-northeast winds at 15-30 mph with gusts of 35-40 mph will result in the near whiteout conditions through 3 PM Today.

The surface 32 degree temperature contour as of 1 PM CDT Today has shifted north and now extends from far Southern Aitkin County through far Northern Pine County in Minnesota...east through Northern Douglas into Northwest Bayfield Counties in Wisconsin...

The 32 degree wet bulb temperature contour stretched from Northcentral Pine County Minnesota...east through Central Douglas into Northeast Bayfield Counties in Wisconsin...

I would expect to see the freezing line continue to lift north/west through the remainder of Today as low pressure remains nearly stationary over far Northwest Iowa.

The attention here in Duluth may turn to one that consists of some developing freezing drizzle once the snow ends and the dry slot moves overhead...I'll be monitoring that situation closely. As far as snowfall storm totals go...I'm still calling for 4-8" by early Wednesday...But current thinking is that will end up with the lower end of these expected totals.

Stay tuned for more updates...

Tim

3/31/09: Winter Storm Video

Issued at 12:47 PM CDT, Tuesday, March 31st, 2009

Here are some videos I grabbed as a heavy snow band passed thru Duluth Minnesota around 12 PM Today... East-northeast winds have been gusting to 30 to 45 mph here in the city with near whiteout conditions at times as the heavier snow bands move through. I have 2.5" of snow on the ground as of Noon Today...But there is alot of drifting taking place. Also, the snow isn't wet, but it is compacting pretty good. Temperatures at Noon Today were running between 28-31 degrees here in Duluth.


video video video

3/31/09: Winter Storm Update Number 1

Issued at 9:15 AM CDT, Tuesday, March 31st, 2009

*Winter Storm Warning* until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for Duluth/Superior...Including Southern St. Louis and Douglas Counties...

As of 7 AM CDT: 1.1" of snow had fallen at the NWS in Duluth Minnesota...

At 8 AM CDT...Low pressure averaging 992 mb was centered over Southeastern South Dakota... The low has made very little progress over the past 5 hours. Strongest pressure falls of 2 mb/2 hours have shifted into Western...Central...and Eastern Minnesota through most of Wisconsin This Morning...

Snow started to fall here in Duluth around 2 AM Today with some ice pellets mixed in during the wee hours of the morning... Snow continued to fall here in the city as of 9 AM with bands of heavier snow now beginning to develop to our south...With movement toward the north.

Temperatures as of 8 AM were in the upper 20s to 30 degrees in the city with howling east-northeast winds of 25 to as high as 45 mph!

The zero degree H85 temperature contour stretched from Central Pine County in Eastcentral Minnesota through Southern Price County in Northwest Wisconsin as of 8 AM Today...

The surface 32 degree temperature contour as of 8 AM extended from Southcentral Pine County in Eastcentral Minnesota through Central Washburn and Southwest Sawyer Counties in Northwest Wisconsin...

The surface wet bulb 32 degree temperature contour as of 8 AM was centered just south and southeast of the Duluth forecast area.

Latest RUC model guidance indicates only a very slow east-northeast track to the surface low...With the low moving from Southeast South Dakota into Southern Minnesota by late This Afternoon or early This Evening...

I'm pretty confident that precipitation that falls through the day will come down as snow here in Duluth and it will likely turn heavy at times as strong lift and forcing help to cause heavier bands of precip to our south while they lift north into our area.

The strong east-northeast winds of 20-35 mph will also persist through the day with gusts to 40-45 mph possible. This combined with the snow will create near white-out conditions at times in the city as the most intense snow bands roll through.

I'm still concerned that temperatures may warm up enough by late This Afternoon or early This Evening to cause the snow to mix with or change to drizzle or freezing drizzle here in Duluth...But by that time we could be getting into the dry slot of this whole storm... I'll continue to monitor those trends throughout the day...

Stay tuned for more updates

Tim

Monday, March 30, 2009

3/30/09: Latest Headline Information

Issued at 4:50 PM CDT, Monday, March 30th, 2009

Following headlines issued by the National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota:

*Winter Storm Warning* in effect from 10 PM CDT Tonight until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for the following counties in Minnesota: Itasca... Cass... Crow Wing... Aitkin... And Pine... And in Wisconsin: Burnett... And Washburn... Some cities included in the warning are: Grand Rapids... Bigfork... Walker... Cass Lake... Brainerd... Hill City... Aitkin... McGregor... Hinckley... Pine City... Siren... Grantsburg... Spooner... Shell Lake... And Minong... Snow will develop across the warning area Tonight with snow becoming heavy at times Overnight into Tuesday... Additional snow will fall Tuesday Night. Snow will become mixed with and possibly change to sleet or rain Tuesday Afternoon and Tuesday Evening over Burnett and Washburn Counties in Wisconsin and possibly into Pine County Minnesota. Total snowfall accumulations of 6-10" are expected in the Minnesota areas with localized amounts around 12"... Snow totals of 2-6" are expected in Wisconsin...

*Winter Storm Warning* in effect from 7 AM CDT Tuesday until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for the following counties in Minnesota: Koochiching... St. Louis... Lake... Cook... And Carlton... And in Wisconsin: Douglas... And Bayfield... Some cities included in the warning are: International Falls... Littlefork... Orr... Crane Lake... Ely... Hibbing... Floodwood... Duluth... Two Harbors... Finland... Silver Bay... Grand Marais... Beaver Bay... Esko... Cloquet... Cromwell... Moose Lake... Superior... Solon Springs... Port Wing... And Bayfield... Snow will develop late Tonight or during the Morning hours on Tuesday with snow becoming heavy at times. Snow will linger into Tuesday Night although it may end at times especially south and southeast of the Iron Range... The snow will mix with and possibly change over to sleet or rain Tuesday Afternoon or Evening in Douglas and Bayfield Counties possibly back into Carlton and Southern St. Louis Counties... Total snowfall accumulations of 4 to 10" are expected by early Wednesday with localized amounts nearing 12"... The heaviest snowfall accumulations should fall north of Duluth...

*Winter Weather Advisory* in effect from 7 AM CDT Tuesday until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for the following counties in Wisconsin: Ashland... Iron... Sawyer... And Price... Look for snow to develop in the advisory area late Tonight or Tuesday Morning with snow mixing with and turning to sleet or rain Tuesday Afternoon. Total snow accumulations of 2-6" are possible in the advisory area by Tuesday Night.

NOTE: The entire area will also be plagued by increasing easterly winds from Tonight through Tuesday Evening. Wind speeds of 15-25 mph will occur with gusts of 30 to around 40 mph possible near Lake Superior. This will result in areas of blowing and drifting snow. Visibilities will lower to one quarter mile or less during the bands of heaviest snowfall. Travel will become very difficult or impossible in some areas Overnight through Tuesday Night...

*Flood Warning* continues until 130 PM CDT Tuesday for Southwestern Cass County in Northcentral Minnesota... At 1248 PM CDT Monday minor flooding was continuing along the Crow Wing River in Southwestern Cass County. In addition...Ice jam flooding could still occur at any time...Causing rapid water level rises and areas of swift moving water.

*Flood Warning* continues until further notice for the Mississippi River at Aitkin Minnesota and for the Mississippi River at Fort Ripley Minnesota... Counties included: Aitkin and Crow Wing in Eastcentral Minnesota... At 9 AM CDT Monday the Mississippi River at Aitkin had a stage of 15.0 feet. Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is expected. Flood stage is 12 feet. The river will continue to fall to a stage of 14.7 feet by Tomorrow Morning. At 15 feet minor flooding of low lying areas occurs in Aitkin. At 9 AM CDT Monday the Mississippi River at Fort Ripley had a stage of 12.0 feet... Flood stage is 10.0 feet. The river will remain nearly steady then begin slowly receeding. At 12 feet...The boat landing and parking lot access are under water.

Tim

3/29/09: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:57 PM CDT, Monday, March 29th, 2009

Forecast concerns are plenty as the latest winter storm takes aim on the local area...

One thing seems certain and it's that no major warm spells are expected anytime soon as a Winter type pattern continues...

(Today's Weather)

Low pressure of 995 mb was centered over Southern Nebraska as of 3 PM CDT Today with high pressure averaging 1020 mb extending from Southeast Manitoba to Central Lake Superior. Pressure falls up to 2 mb/2 hours were found over most of Iowa into the Southern half of Minnesota This Afternoon which should lead to the surface low moving into that area through Tuesday Morning which would match the current projected path per forecast models Today. Skies across the area Today were partly sunny to mostly cloudy with high temperatures mostly in the 30s and low 40s. Winds were out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph with some gusts around 20-25 mph developing in some locations This Afternoon.

(Today's Upper Air Analysis)

Powerful 500 mb low continued to dig slightly south of east across Central Wyoming This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery with an H5 trough shifting east out of the Rockies into the Northern-Central Plains. An H3 jet streak of 100 knots was located on the south and east sides of this storm system This Afternoon per RUC model analysis. 12 hour H5 height falls of 90 meters were located over Eastern Colorado, Southwestern Nebraska, and Western Kansas Today near this storm system. 850 mb temperatures around Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin ranged from -2 to -6 degrees C as of 3 PM CDT Today...

(Tonight)

Low pressure will lift slowly north-east and should reside over Western Iowa or Eastern Nebraska Overnight. Initial band of virga has been lifting north across Central and Eastern Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin Today...But with such a dry airmass currently in place hardly any of this precipitation has been reaching the ground. It's expected that some snow will develop This Evening, mainly for Koochiching...Itasca...Cass...Crow Wing...And Aitkin Counties in Minnesota... The rest of the area should remain dry This Evening... By later Tonight...Snow should start to break out as forcing and lift develops near the low itself. This should cause precipitation to break out across Southern, Central, and Eastern Minnesota This Evening with movement of this precip toward the north and northeast which will cause the precip to reach Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota Overnight. Snow should be the main precipitation type through the night thanks to evaporative cooling processes. Lows Tonight will be in the 20s and 30s with east winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts from 25 to 35 mph.

(Tuesday)

Strong area of low pressure will lift slowly into Southern Minnesota with high pressure off to our northeast. Forcing and lift will be strong north of the low which should result in some pretty good snow bands affecting Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Warmer air will get pulled north and possibly west as the low draws closer which will cause the snow to mix with and change to sleet or rain across Northwest Wisconsin and possibly west into Eastern Minnesota including Duluth... Highs Tuesday will be in the 20s and 30s... Winds will be out of the east at 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph.

(Tuesday Night)

Strong area of low pressure is forecast to lift almost due north across Eastcentral Minnesota. This will do a few things... One it should focus the more persistent snow to the Arrowhead of Minnesota back to the west and northwest parts of the local area... Second thing it could do is cause the dry slot to lift north-east which would effectively shut off the precipitation for a time across Northwest Wisconsin and possibly west toward Eastern Minnesota including Duluth... Precipitation outside of the areas I mentioned above should tend to be more spotty (convective) in nature as lapse rates build toward 7.0 c/km... Showers of sleet, snow, or rain could develop near the dry slot across Northwest Wisconsin and possibly Eastern Minnesota Tuesday Night. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 20s and 30s but some locations in Northwest Wisconsin could see temps climb toward 40 degrees for a time Tuesday Evening. Winds Tomorrow Night will be out of the north, east, or south-southwest at 10-20 mph with higher gusts.

Snowfall storm totals by early Wednesday should go as follows:

6-10" with localized amounts near 12" for Koochiching...Itasca...Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...Central-Northern St. Louis...Cook...And Lake Counties in Minnesota...

4-8" with localized amounts near 10" for Pine...Carlton...And Southern St. Louis Counties in Minnesota...

2-6" for Douglas...Burnett...Bayfield...Washburn...Sawyer...Iron...Ashland...And Price Counties in Northwestern Wisconsin...

(Extended Forecast)

Low pressure will be pulling into Central Canada by mid-week. The circulation around this low should help keep the next system well to our southeast later this week the way it looks now. Some lingering flurries and or snow showers are possible over parts of the area on Wednesday with some additional minor accumulations possible, mainly in Northern Minnesota... High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 20s, 30s, and low 40s with lows Wednesday Night in the teens and 20s. Highs Thursday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Thursday Night in the teens and 20s. Another storm may develop over the Rockies and move out into the Southern/Central Plains this weekend...But the forecast models are not in very good agreement right now in regards to the track and timing of this storm. It does appear at least right now that any affects from this possible storm would remain south and southeast of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin but this could change in the coming days...

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*Winter Storm Warning* in effect from 7 AM CDT Tuesday until 7 AM CDT Wednesday

.Tonight... Turning windy. Mostly cloudy. Snow developing between 2 AM and 4 AM... Low 23 to 29. Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph with gusts around 30 to 35 mph.

Tuesday... Windy with snow... Snow could be heavy at times. Snow may mix with sleet during the Afternoon. High 30 to 33. Wind east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph with gusts of 35 to 40 mph. Areas of blowing and drifting snow possible.

.Tuesday Night... Occasional snow. Sleet or drizzle also possible during the Evening. Total storm accumulations of 4-8 inches expected. Low 20 to 25. Wind east at 15 to 25 mph... Decreasing to 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Snow showers or flurries. Little additional accumulation expected. Mostly cloudy. High 30 to 35.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Flurries. Low 20 to 25.

.Thursday... Mostly cloudy. High 31 to 37.

.Thursday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 35 to 40.

Normal High Temperature Today 40 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 22 degrees

Tim

3/30/09: Updated Headline Information...

Issued at 9:51 AM CDT Monday, March 30th, 2009

Headlines posted by the National Weather Service in Duluth, MN:

*Winter Storm Warning* now in effect from 4 PM CDT Today until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for the following counties in Northcentral and Eastcentral Minnesota: Cass... Crow Wing... And Aitkin... Some cities included in the warning are: Walker... Cass Lake... Brainerd... Hill City... McGregor... And Aitkin... Snow is forecast to develop across the warning area This Afternoon with accumulations of 1-2" possible by This Evening. The snow may end for a time Tonight before the main storm arrives Overnight through Tuesday Evening...Snow heavy at times is forecast to occur from late Tonight through Tuesday Evening with storm total accumulations of 6-12" possible. During this winter storm expect visibilities to be reduced to around one quarter mile at times along with east winds of 15-25 mph which will produce blowing and drifting snow. Travel will become extremely difficult if not impossible later Tonight or on Tuesday.

*Winter Storm Warning* now in effect from 7 PM CDT This Evening until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for the following counties in Northern Minnesota... Eastcentral Minnesota... And Northwest Wisconsin: Itasca... Pine... And Burnett... Some cities included in the warning are: Grand Rapids... Big Fork... Hinckley... Pine City... Siren... And Grantsburg... Expect snow to develop in the warning area later Today or This Evening with the heavier snow then developing Overnight Tonight through late Tuesday Afternoon. Additional snow is then expected into Tuesday Night...Although it may taper off for a time...Especially across Burnett County. Storm total accumulations of 5 to 12" are possible by early Wednesday with the highest totals more likely in Itasca County. Some sleet or rain could also mix in with the snow for a time Tuesday Afternoon or Evening...Mainly in Burnett County. During this winter storm expect visibilities to drop to around one quarter mile at times along with east winds of 15-25 mph which will produce blowing and drifting snow. Travel will become extremely difficult if not impossible by early Tuesday.

*Winter Storm Warning* in effect from 7 AM CDT Tuesday until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin... Counties included in the warning are: Central and Southern St. Louis... Carlton... Douglas... And Washburn... Some cities included in the warning are: Hibbing... Cotton... Floodwood... Duluth... Esko... Cloquet... Cromwell... Moose Lake... Superior... Solon Springs... And Spooner... Snow will develop across the warning area Tonight with up to 1-2" of accumulation possible by Morning... Snow heavy at times will then overspread the warning area on Tuesday with additional snow falling into Tuesday Night...Although the snow may end for a time Tuesday Night...Especially in Northwest Wisconsin. Snow could also mix with or change over to some sleet or rain mainly over Northwest Wisconsin late Tuesday Afternoon or Tuesday Evening. Storm total accumulations of 5-10" are possible by early Wednesday with locally higher amounts possible along the Higher Terrain near Lake Superior in Southern St. Louis County... During this winter storm expect visibilities to drop to around one quarter mile at times along with east winds at 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible near Lake Superior. This will cause blowing and drifting snow... Travel will become extremely difficult if not impossible by Tuesday.

*Winter Storm Warning* in effect from 7 AM CDT Tuesday until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for the following counties in Northern and Northeast Minnesota: Koochiching... Northern St. Louis... Lake... And Cook... Some cities included in the warning are: International Falls... Littlefork... Orr... Crane Lake... Ely... Two Harbors... Isabella... Silver Bay... Tofte... Finland... Lutsen... Grand Marais... And Little Marais... Snow will spread into the warning area later Tonight or Tuesday Morning with snow heavy at times occurring Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night. Total storm accumulations of 5-12" are possible in the warning area by early Wednesday with the higher totals expected along the North Shore of Lake Superior. During this winter storm expect visibilities to drop to around one quarter mile at times along with east winds at 15-25 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible near Lake Superior. This will cause blowing and drifting snow. Travel will become extremely difficult if not impossible by Tuesday.

*Winter Storm Watch* remains in effect from Tuesday Morning through Wednesday Morning for the following counties in Northwest Wisconsin: Bayfield... Ashland... Iron... Sawyer... And Price... Snow will spread into the watch area later Tonight or Tuesday Morning with snow then continuing into Tuesday Afternoon. The snow will become mixed or change to sleet or rain from south to north across the watch area Tuesday Afternoon or Tuesday Evening. Storm total accumulations of 2-6" are possible by early Wednesday with the higher totals expected in the northern parts of the watch area. Travel will become difficult by Tuesday.

*Flood Advisory* has been issued until 645 PM CDT Monday for Southern Crow Wing County in Eastcentral Minnesota including the city of Brainerd... The Mississippi River around Brainerd was running high...And there was some flooding of low land and wooded areas. Other rivers across Crow Wing County will continue to be high. With mainly minor flooding expected. Some rivers still had plenty of ice...So there could be some ice jams that occur....Which could cause additional river rises.

*Flood Warning* continues until further notice for the Mississippi River at Aitkin Minnesota and for the Mississippi River at Fort Ripley Minnesota... Counties affected are: Aitkin and Crow Wing in Eastcentral Minnesota... At 8 AM CDT Monday...The Mississippi River at Aitkin had a stage of 15.02'... Moderate flooding was occurring... Flood stage is 12 feet... The river is forecast to begin to slowly recede over the next several days...But isn't expected to fall below flood stage anytime soon. At 15 feet some flooding occurs in Aitkin... At 830 AM CDT Monday...The Mississippi River at Fort Ripley had a stage of 12.0'... Flood stage is 10'... Minor flooding was occurring and minor flooding is expected. The river is forecast to begin to slowly recede during the next several days but isn't expected to fall below flood stage anytime soon... At 12 feet...The boat landing...And parking lot at the public access are under water.

*Flood Warning* continues until further notice for the Crow Wing River in Southwest Cass County in Northcentral Minnesota... At 10 AM CDT Sunday...Minor flooding was continuing along the Crow Wing River in Southwestern Cass County... Officials report that water levels upstream of the dam in Pillager have fallen in the past day... However water levels have risen 4 to 6 inches downstream of the dam. Expect additional flooding of low lying areas along the river.

Tim

Sunday, March 29, 2009

3/29/09: Headline Information

Issued at 5:13 PM CDT, Sunday, March 29th, 2009

Following headlines issued by the National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota:

*Winter Storm Warning* in effect from 7 AM CDT Tuesday until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for parts of Northeast and Eastcentral Minnesota and for parts of Northwest Wisconsin. Counties included in the warning are: Itasca... Central and Southern St. Louis... Carlton... Pine... Douglas... Burnett... And Washburn... Some cities included in the warning are: Grand Rapids... Big Fork... Hibbing... Cotton... Duluth... Floodwood... Esko... Cloquet... Moose Lake... Hinckley... Pine City... Superior... Solon Springs... Siren... Grantsburg... And Spooner... Snow will develop across the warning area Monday Night and Tuesday Morning with snow becoming heavy at times on Tuesday. Low pressure lifting north-northeast out of the Central Plains is forecast to reach Eastern Minnesota or Western Wisconsin Tuesday Night which could cause the snow to taper off for some areas. Also, as the low heads north it will pull warmer air into Northwest Wisconsin and possibly into Eastern Minnesota which will cause the snow to mix with or change to sleet or rain by Tuesday Afternoon and Tuesday Evening. There's a slight chance for some thunder around the area as well Tuesday and Tuesday Evening as mid level lapse rates steepen toward 7.0-8.0 c/km as the storm moves in. Snowfall storm totals of 4 to 12 inches are expected in the warning area by late Tuesday Night with the least amounts expected in Northwest Wisconsin and the higher totals west and north of Duluth...

*Winter Storm Warning* in effect from 6 PM CDT Monday until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for parts of Northcentral and Eastcentral Minnesota... Counties included in the warning are: Cass... Crow Wing... And Aitkin... Some cities included in the warning are: Walker... Cass Lake... Brainerd... Hill City... And Aitkin... Snow will develop in the warning area Monday Afternoon and Monday Evening with snow becoming heavy at times on Tuesday. Additional snow is forecast Tuesday Night, although it may taper off at times. Total storm accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are expected by late Tuesday Night.

*Winter Storm Warning* in effect from 7 AM CDT Tuesday until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for parts of Northern and Northeast Minnesota... Counties included in the warning are: Koochiching... Northern St. Louis... Lake... And Cook... Some cities included in the warning are: International Falls... Littlefork... Orr... Crane Lake... Ely... Two Harbors... Silver Bay... Lutsen... Tofte... Beaver Bay... Grand Marais... And Isabella... Snow will develop in the warning area late Monday Night or Tuesday Morning with snow heavy at times on Tuesday into Tuesday Evening. Total storm accumulations of 5 to 12 inches are expected by late Tuesday Night with the highest totals expected to fall along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

*Winter Storm Watch* remains in effect from Tuesday Morning through Wednesday Morning for parts of Northwest Wisconsin. Counties included in the watch are: Bayfield... Ashland... Iron... Sawyer... And Price... Some cities included in the watch are: Port Wing... Bayfield... Ashland... Hurley... Hayward... And Park Falls... Snow will develop Tuesday Morning in the watch area with snow continuing Tuesday Afternoon...The snow will then mix with or change to rain or sleet from south to north Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Evening as low pressure moves in from the southwest. Total storm accumulations of 2 to 6 inches are possible by late Tuesday Night with the highest totals expected to be in northern parts of the watch area.

*Flood Warning* remains in effect until further notice for the Crow Wing River in Southwest Cass County in Northcentral Minnesota... At 10 AM CDT Sunday...Minor flooding was continuing along the Crow Wing River in Southwestern Cass County. Officials report that water levels upstream of the dam in Pillager have fallen in the past 24 hours. However water levels have risen 4 to 6 inches downstream of the dam. Expect additional flooding of low lying areas along the river.

*Flood Warning* remains in effect for the Mississippi River at Aitkin Minnesota and for the Mississippi River at Fort Ripley Minnesota... At 9 AM CDT Sunday the Mississippi River at Aitkin had a stage of 15.1 feet. Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is expected. Flood stage is 12 feet. The river is forecast to remain steady near 15 feet through Monday then begin slowly receding. At 15 feet some flooding occurs in Aitkin... At 9 AM CDT Sunday the Mississippi River at Fort Ripley had a stage of 12.0 feet. Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. Flood stage is 10 feet. The river is forecast to remain nearly steady around 12 feet through Monday before slowly receding. At 12 feet...The boat landing...And parking lot at the public access are under water.

Tim

3/29/09: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:38 PM CDT, Sunday, March 29th, 2009

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin:

(Today's Weather)

At 4 PM CDT Today low pressure averaging 987 mb was centered over Northeast Wyoming. A broad area of 3 mb per 2 hour pressure falls were located from Central Colorado to the Western half of Nebraska This Afternoon per RUC model analysis... Result from this should be for the surface low to continue to dig a bit more toward the south and east This Evening. Low pressure averaging 990 mb was centered over Eastern Lake Huron. It's been a long time since we saw this much sun around Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin but it occurred Today...But temperatures were still running slightly below average for late March. High temperatures Today were mostly in the 30s and low 40s with north or northwest winds around 15 mph or less.

(Today's Upper Air Analysis)

Seeing two strong H5 lows across the U.S. The first one continued to lift east-northeast across the Ohio Valley and Eastern Great Lakes regions while the second one continued to dig south-east through the Rockies. Impressive H5 jet streak of 100 knots and an H3 jet streak of 130 knots were found on the west and southwest sides of the Rocky Mountain H5 trough This Afternoon per RUC model analysis. Strong 150 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls were located over Northeast Nevada through Northern Utah This Afternoon near this Western upper trough. 850 mb temperatures around Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin ranged from -6 to -8 degrees C as of 4 PM Today.

(Tonight)

The calm before the storm as the local area remains on the quiet side with clear to partly cloudy skies, but look for clouds to be on the increase during the night... Low pressure will continue to dig southeast out of the Northern Rockies and will reach the Western High Plains later Tonight. Lows will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s with north, northwest, or northeast winds at 5 to 15 mph.

(Monday and Monday Night)

Low pressure will be centered over the Central Plains during this forecast period while high pressure develops to our north. A band of snow associated with some frontogenesis is forecast to develop Monday and Monday Night, mainly affecting Northern and Central Minnesota, some of the snow could also work it's way into Northeast Minnesota toward Monday Evening. It appears right now that most of Northwest Wisconsin will remain dry Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night. Look for partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies across the area on Monday with overcast conditions on tap for Monday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s and 30s. Winds during this period will be shifting into the east and northeast with wind speeds increasing to between 15 and 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph developing near Lake Superior, especially by Monday Night.

(Extended Forecast)

Strong H5 low along with it's upper level trough and surface area of low pressure will be lifting north-northeast out of the Central Plains and is forecast to reach Eastern areas of Minnesota Tuesday Night. The 12z NAM from Today is farthest west with the track of the low...Bringing it north through the West half of Minnesota... The other models Today are farther east and basically track it either across Eastern Minnesota or Western Wisconsin...

Look for snow across the entire area on Tuesday with snow mixing with and turning over to rain or sleet from south to north across Northwest Wisconsin later Tuesday as the low approaches. Also, the dry slot is forecast to lift north and possibly west and this could ultimately shut the snow off for a time later Tuesday or Tuesday Evening for most of the area, except possibly the far west and north areas.

Even though the low is tracking more to the west it still appears that temperatures aloft will remain just cold enough to support a frozen precipitation type, especially across Northeast Minnesota...I don't believe freezing rain will be an issue with this storm, but sleet could become an issue.

The snow that falls with this storm will be very wet in nature so drifting snow shouldn't be an issue, but blowing snow is still expected.

Some tree damage and power outages could occur in some parts of the area if enough of this wet heavy snow accumulates on those objects.

Strong east to northeast winds are also expected to develop Tuesday and Tuesday Evening with H85 winds of 30 to around 50 knots north of the surface low. Some of that wind energy will mix down to the surface. As a result, look for easterly winds at 15 to 30 mph with gusts possibly as high as 40 mph...Especially near Lake Superior. The wind should be strongest on Tuesday before relaxing from south to north Tuesday Night.

Final snowfall totals are still a bit uncertain late Today since there remains some difference in the overall storm track once it lifts into the Upper Midwest... I'm thinking right now that the heaviest snow will fall west and north of Duluth where 6-12 inches of snow could accumulate by early Wednesday... Northwest Wisconsin should see the least amount of snow from this storm with generally 1-4 inches of accumulation...Far Northwest Wisconsin could have amounts of 4-6 inches though... The Eastern Minnesota corridor...Including Duluth should see around 4 to 8 inches of snow the way it looks now. These totals may need to be adjusted though as this event draws closer.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*Winter Storm Warning* in effect from 7 AM CDT Tuesday until 7 AM CDT Wednesday...

.Tonight... Clear This Evening with skies becoming partly to mostly cloudy late. Low 15 to 20. Wind north to northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday... Turning breezy. Increasing clouds. High 33 to 38. Wind east to northeast increasing to 15 to 25 mph.

.Monday Night... Windy... Snow developing. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Low 22 to 26. Wind east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph with gusts around 40 mph possible.

.Tuesday... Windy. Snow... Snow may be heavy at times. Some sleet could mix in with the snow later in the day. High 27 to 32. Wind east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph with gusts around 40 mph possible.

.Tuesday Night... Occasional snow. Sleet could mix in with the snow early. Low 20 to 25. Total storm accumulations of 4 to 8 inches possible.

.Wednesday... Snow showers or flurries possible. High 30 to 35. Chance of snow 30%.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Flurries. Low 20 to 25.

.Thursday... Mostly cloudy. High 31 to 37.

Normal High Temperature Today 40 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 22 degrees

Tim

3/29/09: Winter Storm Watch Information

Issued at 7:26 AM CDT, Sunday, March 29th, 2009

Definately have seen a westward trend to the storm track for Monday and Tuesday on the 00z model run from last night... This could have implications on how much snow we see here in Duluth as the dry slot could very well affect the city and points south and east from here as the low heads into Eastern Minnesota later Tuesday... The heaviest snow band if the low tracks into Eastern Minnesota would likely fall west and northwest of the city, kind of similar to the storm that occurred just a few weeks ago... Snow totals here in the city could be held down to around 3-6" if this western track holds up... The Navy-Nogaps model remains the farthest south-east with the storm track while all the other models have shifted west over the past 12 hours. This will definately bear watching during the next couple model runs to see if this trend holds up, or if the models start pushing the system a bit more to the east again. The storm itself still looks like a strong one and a slow moving one as well with snow totals where the heaviest snow band sets up likely reaching a foot, perhaps even a little more than a foot.

Following headlines issued by the National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota

*Winter Storm Watch* in effect for the following counties in Northcentral and Eastcentral Minnesota... Cass... Crow Wing... And Aitkin... This includes the cities of: Walker... Remer... Cass Lake... Brainerd... Hill City... And Aitkin... This watch is in effect from Monday Afternoon through late Tuesday Night... Potential exists for 6-12 inches of snow across the watch area by late Tuesday Night. Low pressure will be heading southeast from the Northern Rockies Today and Tonight and will reach the Central Plains on Monday before lifting northeast toward Eastern Minnesota by Tuesday Night. Snow is expected to develop in the watch area Monday Afternoon or Monday Evening then become heavier Tuesday through Tuesday Evening. The potential exists for a significant amount of snow with this storm system.

*Winter Storm Watch* in effect for the following counties in Northwest Wisconsin... Bayfield... Ashland... Iron... Sawyer... And Price... This includes the cities of... Port Wing... Bayfield... Ashland... Hurley... Hayward... And Park Falls... This watch is in effect from Tuesday Morning through late Tuesday Night... Snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are possible in the watch area by late Tuesday Night with locally higher amounts possible. Low pressure will be heading southeast from the Northern Rockies Today and Tonight and will reach the Central Plains on Monday before lifting northeast toward Eastern Minnesota by Tuesday Night. Snow will develop in the watch area either late Monday Night or Tuesday Morning and could become heavy at times during the day Tuesday. As the low moves closer, warmer air will lift north and will cause the snow to mix with or change over to rain or some freezing rain from south to north Tuesday Afternoon or Tuesday Evening...Before precipitation changes back over to snow later Tuesday Night.

*Winter Storm Watch* in effect for the following counties in Northeast and Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin... Itasca... Central and Southern St. Louis... Carlton... Pine... Douglas... Burnett... And Washburn... Some cities included in the watch are: Grand Rapids... Bigfork... Hibbing... Cotton... Duluth... Floodwood... Esko... Moose Lake... Cloquet... Hinckley... Pine City... Superior... Solon Springs... Siren... Grantsburg... And Spooner... This watch is in efffect from Monday Evening through late Tuesday Night... Snowfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are possible in the watch area by late Tuesday Night with the highest totals expected to fall mainly in the Minnesota part of the watch area. Low pressure will be heading southeast from the Northern Rockies Today and Tonight and will reach the Central Plains on Monday before lifting northeast toward Eastern Minnesota by Tuesday Night. Snow will develop from southwest to northeast across the watch area Monday Night with snow becoming heavier Tuesday through Tuesday Evening. As the low moves north it will draw warmer air north and this could cause the snow to mix with or change over to some freezing rain, sleet, or rain Tuesday Afternoon or Tuesday Evening, mainly in Northwest Wisconsin.

*Winter Storm Watch* in effect for the following counties in Northeast and Northern Minnesota... Koochiching... Northern St. Louis... Cook... And Lake... Some cities included in the watch are: International Falls... Littlefork... Orr... Ely... Crane Lake... Two Harbors... Silver Bay... Lutsen... Beaver Bay... Grand Marais... And Isabella... This watch is in effect from Tuesday Morning through Tuesday Night... Snowfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with locally higher amounts possible near Lake Superior are expected to occur in the watch area by late Tuesday Night. Low pressure will be heading southeast from the Northern Rockies Today and Tonight and will reach the Central Plains on Monday before lifting northeast toward Eastern Minnesota by Tuesday Night. Snow will overspread the watch area from south to north on Tuesday with some heavy snow expected Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night.

Tim

Saturday, March 28, 2009

3/28/09: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:27 PM CDT, Saturday, March 28th, 2009

*Flood Warning* remains in effect until further notice or until the warning is cancelled for the Mississipp River at Aitkin Minnesota and for the Mississippi River at Fort Ripley Minnesota. At 10 AM CDT Saturday...The Mississippi River at Aitkin had a stage of 15 feet. Flood stage is 12 feet. The stage is expected to remain nearly steady around 15 feet through the weekend before it begins to slowly recede. At 15 feet some flooding occurs in Aitkin. At 1115 AM CDT Saturday the Mississippi River at Fort Ripley had a stage of 12 feet. Flood stage is 10 feet. The river is forecast to rise to near 12.1 feet through Monday. At 12 feet the boat landing...Dock...And parking lot access is affected.

Flood Warning* is in effect until further notice for Southwest Cass County in Northcentral Minnesota... At 830 AM CDT Saturday flooding continued along the Crow Wing River northwest of Motley Minnesota. Upstream river gages have crested...However ice jamming had developed on portions of the river near the city of Motley on the Crow Wing river. Emergency management officials report the water level on the river has risen 6 to 9 inches since Friday Afternoon. The ice jam is causing water to back up along the river in areas northwest of Motley. Expect additional flooding in low lying areas along the river.

Forecast focus is certainly on the possible winter storm that may affect our area from Monday Night through early Wednesday... Snow amounts... Wind... Possible white-out/near blizzard conditions at times are the forecast concerns right now...

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin:

(Today's Weather)

High pressure averaging 1022 mb was centered over Northern Ontario while a strong 994 mb low was centered over Southern Missouri. A couple areas of low pressure averaging 1008-1012 mb were currently over the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. Extensive lake clouds affected the North Shore of Lake Superior Today thanks to east-northeast winds and a chilly airmass in place which helped to produce these lake clouds. Areas of snow showers and flurries have also fallen at times Today near Lake Superior, but accumulations were minimal at best. The rest of the area saw partly to mostly sunny skies Today with a shield of high level clouds heading northeast across Northwest Wisconsin thanks to that large storm over Missouri Today. There's also a disturbance heading east out of the Northern Plains into Northern Minnesota late Today, but this feature hasn't produced any precipitation Today. High temperatures were in the 20s and 30s Today with winds generally from the east or north at 5 to 15 mph.

(Today's Upper Air Analysis)

Powerful H5 low was heading northeast out of Arkansas into Southern-Eastern Missouri This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery. 12 hour H5 height falls of 150-210 meters were occurring near this strong storm system Today. More strong H5 12 hour height falls on the order of 150 meters were found just off the Pacific Northwest Today as the next potent H5 trough digs southeast out of the Northeast Pacific into the Pacific Northwest. 850 mb temperatures around Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin ranged from -8 to -12 degrees C as of 4 PM CDT Today...So were still seeing a very chilly airmass in place over our local area.

(Tonight)

Strong area of low pressure is forecast to move into the Eastern Illinois-Western Indiana area while high pressure remains off to our north. Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies around the area with lows in the single digits, teens, and 20s. Some spots in Northern Minnesota could drop a few degrees below zero once again Tonight...Very similar to last night. Winds will be out of the north or east at 5-15 mph. Lake clouds and a few flurries or snow showers may occur at times Tonight near Lake Superior, but this shouldn't be a very big deal.

(Sunday and Sunday Night)

Low pressure heads into the Eastern Great Lakes during this period while the next storm system digs southeast out of the Northern Rockies. Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies around the area to end the weekend with highs Sunday in the 20s and 30s with some low 40s possible. Lows Sunday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s. Winds during this period will be out of the north, northwest, or east around 5-15 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

Low pressure will be pulling out into the Central Plains on Monday while high pressure sets up across Central Canada. It appears right now that most of Monday will be dry across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with high temperatures mostly in the 30s and 40s. By Monday Night...Low pressure will remain over the Plains as some snow begins to spread east-northeast into Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin... Lows Monday Night will be in the 20s and 30s. The heart of the storm is expected to strike the area Tuesday into Tuesday Night as strong low pressure...Possibly turning negatively tilted...moves north-northeast toward Central and Northern Wisconsin... A few of the models have the low tracking slightly more to the west, while one model (Navy Nogaps) keeps it on a more southerly-easterly track. Consenus though between all the models would have the low tracking out of Iowa through the West half of Wisconsin by Tuesday Evening.

Snow, heavy at times will likely occur Tuesday and Tuesday Night over Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, but enough warm air could lift north into parts of Northwest Wisconsin to cause the snow to mix with some rain or freezing rain by Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night.

In addition to the precipitation will be the increasing winds that will develop across the area from Monday Night into Tuesday Evening. Look for east to northeast winds to increase to 15-25 mph across the entire area from late Monday through late Tuesday with wind gusts of 30 to possibly 40 mph occurring...Especially near Lake Superior. This combined with the snow could result in very poor visibilities and perhaps near blizzard conditions at times by Tuesday.

Winter weather headlines will likely be issued for some parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin over the next 24-36 hours if the storm stays on it's current track.

Snowfall totals should reach 6 inches where the heaviest snow band sets up, with amounts possibly nearing 10 to 12 inches within that band. It looks like Central, Eastern, and Northeast Minnesota into far Northwest Wisconsin would be under the gun for the heavier snowfall totals based on the current storm track.

Stay tuned as the storm track could under-go some changes over the next day or so... The timing of the system, as well as the intensity of the storm could also change a bit over the next day or so.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Variable clouds with flurries. Low 15 to 20. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 15 mph, becoming north to northeast toward Morning.

.Sunday... Partly to mostly sunny. High 33 to 38. Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 12 to 18. Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday... Increasing cloudiness. High 33 to 38.

.Monday Night... Snow developing with some accumulation possible... Turning windy. Low 22 to 26. East to northeast winds could gust over 30 mph.

.Tuesday... Snow and wind. Accumulations expected. High 27 to 32. East to northeast winds could gust over 30 mph. Areas of blowing and drifting snow possible.

.Tuesday Night... Snow... Additional accumulations expected. Low 15 to 20.

.Wednesday... Snow showers or flurries possible. High 25 to 30. Chance of snow 30%.

Normal High Temperature Today 39 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 21 degrees

Tim

Friday, March 27, 2009

3/27/09: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:13 PM CDT, Friday, March 27th, 2009

*Lake Effect Snow Advisory* is in effect until Midnight CDT Tonight for Ashland and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin. Lake effect snow showers will linger across the advisory area Tonight thanks to favorable wind directions and a cold airmass in place. Additional accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are expected Tonight with storm totals ranging from 4 to 8 inches with localized totals up to a foot. Roads will be snow covered and slippery Tonight with visibilities under a mile at times in the heaviest snow showers.

*Flood Warning* is in effect until 130 PM CDT Saturday for Southwest Cass County in Northcentral Minnesota... At 314 PM CDT Friday flooding was occurring along the Crow Wing River northwest of Motley Minnesota. Upstream river gages have crested however ice jamming had developed in portions of the river near the city of Motley on the Crow Wing river. Expect additional flooding of low lying areas near the river.

*Flood Warning* remains in effect until further notice or until the warning is cancelled for the Mississippi River at Aitkin Minnesota and for the Mississippi River at Fort Ripley Minnesota. Counties included are: Crow Wing and Aitkin in Eastcentral Minnesota. At 11 AM CDT Friday the Mississippi River at Aitkin had a stage of 14.8 feet. Flood stage is 12 feet. The stage is forecast to rise to near 14.9 feet the rest of Today before receding Saturday Morning. The river is forecast to fall below flood stage next Wednesday, April 1st, 2009. At 15 feet some flooding occurs in Aitkin. The Mississippi River at Fort Ripley Minnesota had a stage of 11.7 feet as of 1138 AM CDT Friday. Flood stage is 10 feet. The stage is forecast to rise to 12.2 feet by early Saturday Afternoon before falling. At 12 feet the boat landing...Dock...And parking lot access is affected.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin:

(Today's Weather)

High pressure averaging 1026 mb was building into Northwest Ontario Province This Afternoon while a cold front continued to shift south through Northwest Wisconsin. Another cold late March day throughout the area Today with high temperatures in the upper teens to the 20s with some low 30s mainly over Northwest Wisconsin. Winds across the area were out of the north, northwest, or northeast Today around 15 mph or less. A convergence band developed behind that cold front which moved through earlier Today which combined with a favorable north-northeast wind coming off Lake Superior and plenty of cold air in place led to the development of some pretty heavy lake effect snow Today along the South Shore of Lake Superior mainly affecting Ashland and Iron Counties... Several inches of snow accumulated in those areas with even some 1-2" snow amounts as far west as parts of Bayfield County Today. The remainder of the area saw partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies Today with some sporadic snow flurries and snow showers with little accumulation.

(Today's Upper Air Analysis)

500 mb low was heading south and east across the Southern Plains Today with another H5 low heading east through Eastern Ontario into Western Quebec. A northwest flow aloft was found across our area Today behind the upper low to our northeast. To our west there's a disturbance heading southeast through Western Canada with 12 hour H5 height falls of 90 meters found over those areas Today. A chilly airmass remains in place across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today with 3 PM 850 mb temperatures of -12 to -14 degrees C.

(Tonight through Saturday Night)

High pressure will stretch from Central Canada southwest into the Upper Midwest during this period while a strong area of low pressure heads northeast out of the Southern Plains up toward Eastern Illinois or Westcentral Indiana by Tomorrow Night. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies across the area Tonight through Saturday Night with lake effect snow showers persisting Tonight along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin...Another 1-4" of snow could accumulate over parts of Ashland and Iron Counties Tonight which would bring storm totals to between 4 and 8 inches with isolated amounts reaching a foot. Scattered flurries or light snow showers over the rest of the area will end This Evening. Low temperatures Tonight and Saturday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s with north, northwest, or northeast winds Tonight around 15 mph or less. Winds Saturday and Saturday Night will be out of the east, north, or northeast around 15 mph or less. As the wind shifts into the east along the North Shore of Lake Superior Saturday and Saturday Night we could see a few lake effect snow showers or flurries develop from the head of Lake Superior on up the North Shore.

(Extended Forecast)

Strong area of low pressure will be shifting toward the Eastern Great Lakes by Sunday while high pressure controls our local weather as it remains centered from Central Canada down into the Upper Midwest. A brand new low will be heading across the Northern Rockies as we approach the end of the weekend. It looks dry over the area Sunday and Sunday Night with high temperatures in the 20s, 30s, and low 40s on Sunday with lows Sunday Night in the teens and 20s. The system over the Northern Rockies is forecast to dive southeast toward the Plains by early next week before it lifts northeast from Monday Night through Tuesday Night. The exact track of the low is still somewhat uncertain Today, but the consensus from the computer models would be to have the low tracking into Southern, Central, or Eastern Wisconsin by sometime Tuesday Afternoon or Evening... This system could bring accumulating snow to most of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin early next week and it could be fairly heavy in some locations with amounts possibly reaching or exceeding 6 inches. Some rain could also mix in with the snow over parts of Northwest Wisconsin depending on the final storm track as well as how much warm air gets drawn north out ahead of the low pressure center. Winds also look to be on the increase early next week as the pressure gradient tightens up between the low to our south and high pressure off to our north. Look for east or northeast winds to develop and increase to 15-25 mph with gusts around 30 mph possible especially near Lake Superior. This system will continued to be monitored in the coming days for possible changes in the storm track, timing issues, and the intensity of the overall storm.

High temperatures on Monday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Monday Night in the teens and 20s.

The latter part of next week could feature yet another storm system taking aim on our local area, but there's plenty of time to monitor that potential storm and it's possible impacts on our area should it materialize.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Variable cloudiness with a few flurries. Low 10 to 15. Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday... Variable clouds with flurries possible. High 27 to 33. Wind northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 10 to 15. Wind northeast around 10 mph.

.Sunday... Mostly sunny. High 35 to 40.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 15 to 20.

.Monday... Increasing clouds. High 35 to 40.

.Monday Night... Mostly cloudy. Snow possible. Low 22 to 26. Chance of snow 40%. East winds could gust to 25 to 30 mph. Some accumulation possible.

.Tuesday... Mostly cloudy. Snow possible. High 27 to 32. Chance of snow 40%. East winds could gust to 25 to 30 mph. Some accumulation possible.

Normal High Temperature Today 39 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 21 degrees

Tim

3/27/09: Winter Storm Threat

Issued at 2:59 PM CDT, Friday, March 27th, 2009

Potential Winter Storm early next week...

A strong area of low pressure is forecast to move into the Northern Rockies this weekend before diving south and east toward the Central Plains early next week. The area of low pressure is then forecast to head northeast toward Central or Eastern Wisconsin around Tuesday or Tuesday Night of next week. Although the exact track of the low is still somewhat uncertain with the forecast models Today, there seems to be better overall agreement Today compared to 24 hours ago with the expected track of this next low pressure system. It appears that temperatures will be cold enough so that precipitation that falls would come down mainly as snow early next week across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin...Although some rain may mix in with the snow across Northwest Wisconsin depending on how much warm air gets pulled north ahead of the low and also depending on the exact track the low takes. It's still too early to pinpoint exactly where the heaviest snow band sets up early next week, but it appears right now that it would affect Eastcentral Minnesota through Northwestern Wisconsin... Snow totals in these areas could reach or exceed 6 inches with lesser amounts north of this area...

East to northeast winds will also be on the increase early next week as the strong area of low pressure heads toward Wisconsin and clashes with an area of high pressure which should be situated over Central Canada. Wind speeds from 15 to 25 mph will likely develop with wind gusts possibly over 30 mph...Especially near Lake Superior. Those onshore winds coming off Lake Superior could lead to some lake enhanced snowfall along the North and South Shore of Lake Superior early next week.

Stay tuned for further updates over the next few days as the exact track of the storm could change as well as the timing and intensity.

Winter weather headlines may be needed early next week for portions of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin should the storm remain on it's current path.

Right now the timing of this event would fall during the late Monday through Tuesday Evening time frame.

Tim

Thursday, March 26, 2009

3/26/09: Flood statement information

Issued at 4:27 PM CDT, Thursday, March 26th, 2009

From the National Weather Service...

*Flood Warning* is in effect until 845 AM CDT Friday for the Nemadji River in Northwest Douglas County in Northwest Wisconsin... At 320 PM CDT Thursday the Nemadji River stage was 20.4 feet. Recent snow melt combined with heavy rain on frozen ground has resulted in a rapid increase of runoff into the Nemadji River. Though the river level has been nearly steady for the last 24 hours...Some ice jamming is occurring along the river upstream from County Road C and downstream past the bridge on Woodlawn Road resulting in increased river levels due to backwater affects. Water has been reported over Finn Road south of the Intersection of East County Road C. Water from Crawford Creek was nearing road level on East Hammond Avenue west of County Road A.

*Flood Warning* is in effect until 1245 PM CDT Friday for Southwest Cass County in Northcentral Minnesota. At 11 AM CDT Thursday flooding was reported along the Crow Wing River northwest of Motley Minnesota. Upstream river gages appear to have crested. However high water levels are expected to slowly rise over the next 24 to 36 hours as those crests work down-stream. Expect flooding of low lying areas along the Crow Wing River.

*Flood Warning* remains in effect for the Mississippi River at Aitkin Minnesota and at Fort Ripley Minnesota until further notice or until the warning is cancelled... Counties included are: Crow Wing and Aitkin in Eastcentral Minnesota... At 11 AM CDT Thursday the Mississippi river at Aitkin had risen to 14.5 feet. Flood stage is 12 feet. The river is expected to rise to near 14.6 feet This Evening then begin falling slowly. At 15 feet some flooding occurs in Aitkin. The Mississippi River at Fort Ripley Minnesota had a stage of 10.8 feet as of 1010 AM CDT Thursday... Flood stage is 10 feet. The river is forecast to reach 12.1 feet by Saturday Morning. At 12 feet the boat landing...dock...And parking lot access is affected.

*Flood Advisory* remains in effect for the Floodwood River in Southwest St. Louis County in Northeast Minnesota until 330 PM CDT Friday or until the river recedes. At 930 AM CDT Thursday the stage at the Floodwood River had risen to 15.4 feet as reported by law enforcement. Minor flooding to low lying areas occurs at a river stage of 14 feet. Recent snow melt combined with heavy rain on frozen ground has resulted in an increase runoff into the Floodwood River. At a stage of 17 feet residential property damage is possible. At this time the Floodwood River is expected to remain above 14 feet but not expected to reach 17 feet. Law enforcement reported no significant flooding at this time.

Tim

3/26/09: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:47 PM CDT, Thursday, March 26th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 2007, a record high temperature of 72 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Here are some snowfall reports around Northeast Minnesota from last night and This Morning...

Duluth MN-NWS (St. Louis County) 0.3"

Littlefork MN (Koochiching County) 1.3"

3 miles Northeast of Nisswa MN (Crow Wing County) 2.1"

3 miles North of Brainerd MN (Crow Wing County) 1.3"

International Falls MN (Koochiching County) 1.7"

5 miles North of Pillager MN (Cass County) 1.5"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today's Weather)

Low pressure averaging 1006 mb has moved into the Northeast half of Ontario Province while a cold front attached to this low shifts southeast from Northwest Minnesota. It was an unusually cold day around Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with high temperatures running a good 10 to 25 degrees below average for late March. High temperatures were generally in the 20s with low 30s over parts of Northwest Wisconsin with some upper teens over Northern Minnesota. Winds across the area were out of the west or southwest at 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts. Skies around the area were fairly cloudy Today with more scattered snow showers and flurries.

(Today's Upper Level Analysis)

Two 500 mb lows were found across the U.S. Today with one centered over Northern Minnesota and adjacent areas of Central-Western Ontario Province with the second H5 low centered over the Central Rockies per RUC model analysis. Upper level troughs covered the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes Today with a southward digging upper trough found over the Central Rockies. A powerful H3 jet streak of 130-140 knots was found over Nevada This Afternoon on the west side of the Central Rockies upper trough. 850 mb temperatures around Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin ranged from -10 to -14 degrees C This Afternoon.

(Tonight through Friday Night)

Not much change expected in the overall weather. Low pressure will be centered to our northeast while high pressure starts to build into our area from the west. A cold front will continue to track south/east across the local area Tonight and Friday Morning. Look for areas of snow showers and flurries Tonight with lesser coverage of snow expected on Friday with dry conditions expected by Friday Night. Mostly cloudy skies Tonight will become partly to mostly cloudy Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night. Lows Tonight and Friday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s with highs Tomorrow in the 20s and 30s. Winds will be out of the southwest, west, or northwest at 10 to 20 mph Tonight and from the north or west Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night at 10 to 20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

High pressure will be sliding off to our northeast this weekend while low pressure deepens and heads northeast out of the Southern Plains. All the forecast models Today have finally come into agreement in keeping this storm to our southeast. The low is forecast to track into Indiana or possibly Eastern Illinois late Saturday, then into the Eastern Great Lakes region later this weekend. Looks dry across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Saturday and Sunday with highs both days in the 20s and 30s with some low 40s also possible. Lows both nights will be mainly in the teens and 20s. The next storm to keep an eye on will be during the early part of next week as low pressure tracks out of the Northern Rockies into the Central Plains. Aside from the GFS model the other remaining models Today keep this low on a southerly track once again with perhaps some snow or mixed precip possibly affecting Northwest Wisconsin and perhaps into Eastern Minnesota from Monday into Tuesday... The GFS model for the second day in a row is in a different boat altogether as they have the low passing much more to the north...With the storm tracking out of Iowa through Southern Minnesota up into Northern Wisconsin early next week... This solution would bring wind, snow, and mixed precip to all of the area early next week with several inches of snow possible for some areas. Since it's so far away the GFS model cannot be discounted yet...But the other forecast models that go out to early next week are not nearly as far north as the GFS at this time.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy with occasional snow showers and flurries. Accumulations under an inch. Low 10 to 15. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday... Partly sunny. Flurries possible. High 25 to 30. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 10 to 15. Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 30 to 35.

.Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 15 to 20.

.Sunday... Mostly sunny. High 35 to 40.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 16 to 21.

.Monday... Partly to mostly cloudy. High 35 to 40.

Normal High Temperature Today 38 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 21 degrees

Tim

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

3/25/09: Flood Update

Issued at 4:51 PM CDT, Wednesday, March 25th, 2009

*Flood Warning* continues for the Mississippi River at Aitkin MN and for the Mississippi River at Fort Ripley MN... This warning is in effect until further notice, or until the warning is cancelled... Counties included are: Aitkin and Crow Wing...

The Mississippi River at Aitkin, MN had a stage of 13.9 feet as of 9 AM CDT Wednesday with minor flooding occurring. Flood stage is 12 feet. The river is forecast to rise to near 14.5 feet by Friday Morning then begin falling. At 15 feet some flooding occurs in Aitkin.

The Mississippi River at Fort Ripley MN had a stage of 9.8 feet as of 10 AM CDT Wednesday. Flood stage is 10 feet. The river is forecast to rise above flood stage the rest of This Afternoon and continue to rise to near 12.1 feet by early Saturday Afternoon. At 12 feet, the boat landing, dock and parking lot access are affected.

*Flood Advisory* continues for the Floodwood River in Southwest St. Louis County in Northeast Minnesota until 330 PM CDT Thursday... At 930 AM CDT Wednesday the river stage had risen to 14.8 feet per law enforcement reports. Minor flooding occurs in low lying areas when the stage reaches 14 feet. At a stage of 17 feet residential damage is possible. At this time the Floodwood River is forecast to remain above 14 feet but not reach 17 feet. Law enforcement reported no significant flooding at this time.

*Flood Advisory* continues for the Nemadji River in Northwest Douglas County Wisconsin...This includes the city of Superior. The advisory is in effect until 11 AM CDT Thursday... At 1058 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 20.7 feet with some ice jamming occurring near the river gauge which has led to increased river flows. Minor flooding in low lying areas occurs with a river stage of 20 feet. The rise in flood stage at the Nemadji River has slowed over the last few hours. Highway C may be affected if flood stage reaches 24 feet. That's not expected at this time.

Tim

3/25/09: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4 PM CDT Wednesday, March 25th, 2009

Note: The first thunderstorm of Spring 2009 passed through Duluth between 9:30 PM and 10 PM CDT Tuesday Night.

Here are some precipitation totals around Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from 7 AM CDT Tuesday through 7 AM CDT Wednesday...

Duluth MN: 0.51"

International Falls MN: 0.77"

Brainerd MN: 0.78"

Grand Marais MN: 0.58"

8 miles South of Bigfork MN: 0.84"

8 miles Northeast of Cook MN: 0.66"

Dixon Lake MN: 0.51"

Embarrass MN: 0.70"

Hinckley MN: 0.45"

Kabetogama MN: 0.75"

3 miles East of Orr MN: 0.57"

Littlefork MN: 1.01"

3 miles Northeast of Nisswa MN: 0.68"

Northome MN: 0.83"

Silver Bay MN: 0.82"

Butternut WI: 0.60"

9 miles Northwest of Washburn WI: 0.51"

West Duluth: 0.80" from 2 PM CDT Tuesday ending at 3:30 PM CDT Wednesday... Total precipitation from this storm was 2.50" in West Duluth between Sunday Night and This Morning.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin...

(Today's Weather)

Low pressure averaging 996 mb was centered over Southwest Ontario at 3 PM Today with gusty west to southwest winds found in the wake of this low. Moisture and colder air wrapping around the strong low has led to a gray and fairly damp day with areas of light rain and drizzle which has mixed with and turned to some snow in some locations. The rain turned to snow below the hill in Duluth around midday, but no accumulations have occurred. There was some minor snow accumulations due to this storm up north with International Falls picking up 1" of snow and Littlefork closing in on the 1" mark earlier Today. The heavier snow band stayed west of the local area where several inches of snow occurred last night and Today. High temperatures around the area were in the 30s and 40s early This Morning, but have since fallen into the 20s and 30s as cold advection has now taken over. Wind speeds across the area have ranged from 10 to 25 mph Today with gusts around 30-35 mph.

(Today's Upper Air Analysis)

Fairly amplified pattern in place thanks to a storm which is cut-off over the Central Atlantic Ocean. A ridge is in place over the Southeast-Eastern U.S. behind this mammoth low and out ahead of the storm that's lifting north out of the Upper Midwest Today. A very stormy pattern is expected over portions of the U.S. during the next week as a series of low pressure systems dig south-east off the coast of Alaska and the Northeast Pacific. Each one of these storms will have to be watched carefully as they eject out into the Plains as they could have an impact on our weather this weekend through next week. It will just depend on the storm track, and how amplified the upper level winds become as each system heads out of the Western U.S. There are three systems to watch, the first is the one this weekend...The second is the system slated to move into the Plains early next week...And the third one could strike later next week... There remains plenty of model variability in regards to the overall storm track with the storm this weekend and the one early next week, so nothing is set in stone as of yet... One thing seems certain though and that would be for a colder weather pattern once again for the Upper Midwest into early April with no signs of real warm air anytime soon. A deepening snow pack if it develops could have a big impact on the weather in April. Looking at the 850 mb temperatures around Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin shows that colder air has made it's way into our area compared to previous days with 4 PM H85 temps ranging from -2 to -6 degrees C.

(Tonight)

Strong surface and upper level low will meander over the West-South parts of Ontario Province. Look for mostly cloudy skies with areas of light snow and flurries throughout Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with accumulations under an inch expected for most areas, but up to 1-3" of snow could come down Tonight around the International Falls and Littlefork areas. Most of the snow that does fall Tonight should be confined to Northern Minnesota and far Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Tonight will be in the teens and 20s with west or southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 to 30 mph.

(Thursday and Thursday Night)

Low pressure will be centered to our north during this period while cyclonic flow around the low keeps skies pretty gray around the local area. Areas of snow showers and flurries are also possible with little accumulation expected. Highs Thursday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Thursday Night in the teens and 20s. Look for west, southwest, or northwest winds during this period at 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 30 mph on Thursday.

(Extended Forecast)

All eyes will be focused on the energy currently over the Western U.S. This Afternoon and the powerhouse 120-140 knot H3 jet streak located over the Pacific Northwest. This jet stream energy will be diving southeast through the Rockies which will cause a surface low to spin up over the Southern Rockies Thursday before the low pulls out into the Southern Plains on Friday. The majority of the forecast models Today keep this low on a southern track...Taking it from Louisana and Arkansas toward Lower Michigan or the Eastern Great Lakes...The GEM-GLOBAL model for the past three runs now have shown a much more westerly track to this low...As they have the low passing more north than east as it comes out of the Southern Plains... With the low then passing west and north of Chicago Illinois, toward Lake Michigan later this weekend... If the storm was to take a track like what the GEM-GLOBAL is showing right now, then accumulating snow would fall over Northwest Wisconsin and possibly Eastern Minnesota from late Saturday into Sunday... All the other models keep any snow threat well to the south and east of the local area this weekend. So the consenus would be to go with a dry forecast this weekend.

The second storm for early next week also is handled very differently with the forecast models Today... The GFS and EURO show a pretty wound up system coming out of the Central Plains, then moving either into Wisconsin or Illinois around Tuesday of next week... GFS is farthest north Today while the EURO is more to the south. NAVY model shows no signs of a storm anywhere close to our area early next week, and this model has stayed that way for several model runs which is a bit troublesome considering what the GFS/EURO have been showing for a few model runs now. GEM-GLOBAL is also less enthused with the system for early next week.

Basically there seems to be quite a bit of uncertainty with the extended portion of the forecast right now as Winter is trying very hard to make a comeback into parts of the U.S.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Breezy. Mostly cloudy with areas of light snow and flurries. Little accumulation expected. Low 20 to 25. Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Thursday... Mostly cloudy. Chilly for the season. Passing snow showers or flurries. High 30 to 35. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Flurries. Low 15 to 20. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday... Partly to mostly cloudy. High 30 to 35.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 15 to 20.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. 32 to 37.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 15 to 20.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 35 to 40.

Normal High Temperature Today 38 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 20 degrees

Tim