Saturday, February 28, 2009

2/28/09: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:42 PM CST, Saturday, February 28th, 2009

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin:

Arctic high pressure averaging 1024 mb had pushed northeast of the area Today and was centered over Central Ontario Province. A surface trough was moving NW-SE through Northeast Minnesota Today with west/southwest winds found ahead of this trough, and a wind shift to the north/northwest behind it. 12 hour H5 height falls of 90 meters were located over the West half of Ontario Province Today near this trough. A new and much stronger area of arctic high pressure averaging 1046 mb was building into Central Saskatchewan Province This Afternoon, behind the trough that's moving through our area This Afternoon.

After a bitterly cold start to the day around the area, temperatures have climbed nicely This Afternoon, but were still seeing high temperatures a good 10 to 15 degrees below average on this last day of February. High temperatures were mostly in the teens and low 20s around Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Afternoon with west to southwest winds, or north to northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Here are some low temperatures from Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from earlier Today, Saturday, February 28th, 2009.

Duluth MN: -18 degrees

International Falls MN: -29 degrees

Brainerd MN: -22 degrees

Hibbing MN: -25 degrees

Sky Harbor MN: -13 degrees

Silver Bay MN: -27 degrees

Grand Marais MN: -20 degrees

Ely MN: -27 degrees

Orr MN: -24 degrees

Crane Lake MN: -26 degrees

Cook MN: -27 degrees

Bigfork MN: -26 degrees

Pine River MN: -24 degrees

Aitkin MN: -20 degrees

Moose Lake MN: -24 degrees

Cloquet MN: -22 degrees

Superior WI: -17 degrees

Ashland WI: -21 degrees

Hayward WI: -24 degrees

Bruno MN: -23 degrees

Embarrass MN: -33 degrees

3 miles West of Floodwood MN: -27 degrees

Kabetogama MN: -25 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: -29 degrees

Littlefork MN: -24 degrees

7 miles Northwest of Two Harbors MN: -27 degrees

Upson WI: -29 degrees

Winter WI: -24 degrees

Forecast details through next week:

Flow aloft will amplify thanks to a few things. First, a strong upper level low that will track into the Southeast U.S., then up the East Coast. Second, a low pressure system riding N/NE off the U.S. West Coast. The combination of these two things will cause an H5 ridge to develop over the Western U.S., while a sharp trough takes shape over the Central-Eastern U.S. A colder than normal pattern will result due to our area being controlled by the N/NW upper level flow pattern. Looks like the pattern will undergo a transition by the middle of next week as the ridge shifts into the Central U.S. and a new trough takes shape out West. Remains to be seen how long this new pattern will last...Since our area just can't seem to shake the more amplified N/NW flow patterns over the last couple months. In other words, we may just see a brief 1-2 day SW flow pattern, before we go right back into a colder N/NW type of pattern.

-Note: A very cool 1km high resolution satellite image off the Dupage Model site This Afternoon which shows how expansive the ice pack is over Lake Superior, although there seems to be some breaks in the ice over portions of Central and Western Lake Superior, but most of Central-Western Lake Superior is ice covered Today, with Northern parts of the lake seeing more open water versus the rest of the lake.

Tonight:

Look for clear-partly cloudy skies across the area with another night of very cold temperatures ahead. Lows will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below for most areas with winds going from the southwest/west, to the north/west. Wind speeds will range from 10 to around 20 mph Tonight with wind chills later Tonight ranging from 10 below to around 30 below zero.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

Strong arctic high pressure will settle right over our area during this period. Look for mostly clear to clear skies with highs Sunday in the single digits below to above zero with some teens also possible. Lows Sunday Night will be in the single digits and teens below zero with some more 20s below possible in Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast Minnesota. Winds Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night will be out of the north, east, or southeast around 15 mph or less.

Extended Forecast:

May see some flurries pass through the area early next week as warm advection starts to take place as arctic high pressure pushes off to our east, any precipitation looks very light at this time though. The middle to end of next week may feature an area of low pressure ejecting out of the Western trough. Exact details of the track, timing, and intensity of this low are far from certain this far out, but it will have to be watched, since it could be our next big weather maker around the Northland with the potential for snow, rain, or freezing rain...Again timing right now is uncertain, but right now it would appear that the mid to end of next week is when we could see a better potential for some precipitation around our area.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior:

.Tonight... Very cold. Mostly clear. Low 3 below to 9 below. Wind becoming north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Wind chills ranging from 15 below to 25 below.

.Sunday... Sunny. High 10 to 15. Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low zero to 5 below. Wind southeast around 10 mph.

.Monday... Partly to mostly cloudy. High 17 to 22.

.Monday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 5 to 10.

.Tuesday... Snow showers or flurries possible. High 20 to 25. Chance of snow 20%.

.Tuesday Night... Snow showers or flurries possible. Low 10 to 15. Chance of snow 20%.

.Wednesday... Snow showers or flurries possible. High 27 to 32. Chance of snow 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 28 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 10 degrees

Tim

Friday, February 27, 2009

Low Temperatures

Issued at 5:47 PM CST, Friday, February 27th, 2009

Here are some low temperatures that were reported around the Northland earlier Today, Friday, February 27th, 2009.

Duluth MN: -9 degrees

International Falls MN: -14 degrees

Hibbing MN: -10 degrees

Two Harbors MN: -11 degrees

Grand Marais MN: -15 degrees

Ely MN: -15 degrees

Orr MN: -20 degrees

Crane Lake MN: -24 degrees

Cook MN: -15 degrees

Sky Harbor MN: -2 degrees

Pine River MN: -13 degrees

Cloquet MN: -11 degrees

Superior WI: -4 degrees

Embarrass MN: -17 degrees

Littlefork MN: -22 degrees

Northome MN: -19 degrees

Tim

Snowfall report

Issued at 5:39 PM CST, Friday, February 27th, 2009

Here are some snowfall reports from around Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Thursday and Thursday Night, February 26th, 2009.

Silver Bay MN (Lake County) 10.3"

3 miles North-Northeast of Finland MN (Lake County) 8.0"

10 miles Southeast of Grantsburg WI (Burnett County) 7.5"

Leader MN (Cass County) 7.0"

1 mile North of Adolph MN (St. Louis County) 6.8"

8 miles South of Hayward WI (Sawyer County) 6.3"

Duluth MN-Canal Park (St. Louis County) 6.0"

Sarona WI (Washburn County) 6.0"

4 miles West of Washburn WI (Bayfield County) 5.4"

12 miles North of Isle MN (Aitkin County) 5.2"

5 miles West-Southwest of Solon Springs WI (Douglas County) 5.0"

Aitkin MN (Aitkin County) 4.5"

Bayfield WI (Bayfield County) 4.1"

Brainerd (Crow Wing County) 4.0"

2 miles Southeast of Esko MN (Carlton County) 4.0"

Duluth MN-Woodland (St. Louis County) 3.8"

4 miles North of Grantsburg WI (Burnett County) 3.7"

Duluth MN-Lakewood Township (St. Louis County) 3.5"

13 miles South of Superior WI (Douglas County) 3.5"

Remer MN (Cass County) 3.0"

3 miles South of Spooner WI (Washburn County) 3.0"

Tim

2/27/09: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:04 PM CST, Friday, February 27th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 1998, 1.16" of precipitation fell at Duluth Minnesota.

On this date in 1996, 8.4" of snow fell at Duluth Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin:

High pressure of 1038 mb was centered over Northeast North Dakota late This Afternoon with a northwesterly flow aloft in place ahead of this high across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Saw lots of sunshine around the area Today with this arctic high in control, but temperatures were on the cold side with readings generally in the single digits and teens. Winds have relaxed quite a bit though compared to 24 hours ago with a variable wind generally under 15 mph across the area Today.

Tonight:

High pressure will be in control of our weather which will result in clear to partly cloudy skies and another night of very cold late February temperatures. Lows Tonight will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero with variable winds under 12 mph. Looking at the 1km high resolution visible satellite imagery reveals a lake effect cloud streamer just offshore of Ashland and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin as of 2301z... This area of clouds hasn't made any progress to the west yet, and with variable winds expected to remain in place Tonight, I don't believe this lake effect cloud streamer/snow shower activity will head west into the North Shore of Lake Superior Tonight. The only model showing any chance for lake effect snow Tonight is the 4km WRF/NMM, as this model does show this area of lake clouds/snow showers pushing west and northwest toward the North Shore Tonight.

Saturday/Saturday Night:

Southwest winds will develop as one arctic high moves away from the area while a cold front pushes south-southeast through Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Saturday Afternoon and Evening... A new arctic high will build into our area by Saturday Night, once this cold front moves through. The southwest winds on Saturday will range from 10 to 25 mph with north to northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph on tap for Saturday Night. High temperatures will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s Saturday with lows Saturday Night in the single digits and teens below to above zero. The wind shift to the north/northwest could cause some scattered lake effect snow showers along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin Saturday Night with light accumulations expected at this time.

Extended Forecast:

Strong arctic high pressure will remain in control of our weather through Sunday Night, look for highs on Sunday to be in the single digits, teens, and 20s with lows Sunday Night in the single digits below to above zero. A northwest flow aloft will continue across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin into early next week, but as high pressure pushes off to our east, will see a return flow develop...This could lead to some snow showers or flurries by early next week around the region, but snow amounts look pretty minor at this time. By next Tuesday, there are indications of another pretty strong high passing north/northeast of Lake Superior...This could cause winds to shift to the E/NE and with a cold airmass already in place, we could be setting the stage for some lake effect snow shower activity from Bayfield and Douglas Counties in Northwest Wisconsin through the Twin Ports, and northeast along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Long Term Forecast:

Upper level pattern looks to transition from a northwest flow to a southwest flow by the middle and end of next week, and possibly lasting through next weekend. May see a low pressure system affect Northeast Minnesota's/Northwest Wisconsin's weather between Wednesday Night and Friday of next week with a possibility for rain, snow, or even some ice. Over the past few days, the GFS model has even hinted at some elevated instability poking north toward Pine County Minnesota into Burnett, Washburn, and Sawyer Counties in Northwest Wisconsin next Thursday, this could lead to some thunderstorm development if the instability develops. Timing, track, and intensity issues will likely change from day to day and from model run to model run in regards to this possible mid to late week storm...Stay tuned...

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior:

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Very cold. Low 5 below to 12 below. Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Saturday... Mostly sunny. High 12 to 18. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph, becoming northwest later in the day.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 2 above to 5 below. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.'

.Sunday... Mostly sunny. High 10 to 15.

.Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low zero to 5 below.

.Monday... Partly to mostly cloudy. High 17 to 22.

.Monday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 5 to 10.

.Tuesday... Snow showers or flurries possible. High 20 to 25. Chance of snow 20%.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 28 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 10 degrees

Tim

Thursday, February 26, 2009

2/26/09: Winter Weather Headline Information

Issued at 5:16 PM CST, Thursday, February 26th, 2009

*Winter Storm Warning* continues until 6 PM CST for the following counties in Minnesota: Southern Cass... Crow Wing... And Southern Aitkin... This includes the cities of Leader... Brainerd... Pequot Lakes... Breezy Point... Pine Center... Aitkin... And McGrath... Snow will taper off to flurries This Evening in the warning area, but strong north winds will continue to produce areas of blowing and drifting snow through the night. Total snow accumulations will range from 4 to 8 inches in the warning area. This same area is also under a *Wind Chill Advisory* which is in effect from 9 PM CST Tonight until 9 AM CST Friday...Wind chills during this time period could drop to between 20 below and 35 below zero.

*Winter Storm Warning* continues until 12 AM CST Tonight for the following counties: Pine MN... Burnett WI... Washburn WI... Sawyer WI... And Price WI... Some cities included in the warning are: Pine City MN... Hinckley MN... Askov MN... Siren WI... Grantsburg WI... Spooner WI... Hayward WI... And Park Falls WI... Snow will continue in the warning area This Evening with snow tapering off to flurries from southwest to northeast during the mid to late Evening hours. Total snow accumulations in the warning area will range from 4 to 9 inches. Gusty winds will persist through the night which will lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow.

*Winter Weather Advisory* remains in effect until 12 AM CST Tonight for Douglas County... Bayfield County... Ashland County... And Iron County in Northwest Wisconsin. Some cities included in the advisory are: Superior WI... Solon Springs WI... Brule WI... Poplar WI... Oliver WI... Patzau WI... Port Wing WI... Bayfield WI... Herbster WI... Ashland WI... And Hurley WI... Snow will persist through the Evening before tapering off to snow showers and flurries Overnight. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches are expected in the advisory area with locally higher totals near Lake Superior.

*Winter Weather Advisory* remains in effect until 12 AM CST Tonight for Southern St. Louis and Carlton Counties in Northeast Minnesota. *Wind Chill Advisory* is in effect from 9 PM CST Tonight until 9 AM CST Friday. Some cities included in the advisories are: Duluth MN... Esko MN... Cloquet MN... And Moose Lake MN... Snow will continue in the advisory area This Evening before ending around Midnight. Total accumulations will range from 3 to around 6 inches. Gusty winds and arctic air moving into the area later Tonight will cause wind chills to fall to between 20 below and 35 below zero Overnight into Friday Morning. The gusty winds will also cause areas of blowing and drifting snow through the night.

*Winter Weather Advisory* remains in effect until 6 PM CST Tonight for Lake County MN and Cook County MN with a *Wind Chill Advisory* in effect from 9 PM CST Tonight until 9 AM CST Friday... Some cities included in the advisories are: Two Harbors MN... Silver Bay MN... Tofte MN... Lutsen MN... Grand Marais MN... And Isabella MN... Snow will end This Evening with total accumulations ranging from 3 to around 7 inches. Bitter cold will follow with wind chills dropping to 20 below to 35 below Overnight into Friday Morning. Gusty winds will also lead to blowing and drifting snow through the night.

*Wind Chill Advisory* is in effect from 9 PM CST Tonight until 9 AM CST Friday for the following counties in Northern Minnesota: Koochiching County... Northern and Central St. Louis... And Itasca... Some cities included in the advisory are: International Falls MN... Bigfork MN... Grand Rapids MN... Hibbing MN... Ely MN... Virginia MN... And Crane Lake MN... Bitterly cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills of 20 below to 35 below zero are forecast Tonight and Friday Morning in the advisory area.

Tim

2/26/09: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:26 PM CST, Thursday, February 26th, 2009

Surface Analysis at 22z:

Low pressure averaging 1001 mb was centered over Northeast Missouri with strong 2 hour pressure falls of 4 mb noted per RUC model centered over Eastern Wisconsin into Central Lake Michigan. Arctic high pressure averaging 1036 mb was centered over Eastern Saskatchewan.

Upper Air Analysis at 22z:

Main feature of interest is the compact upper level low and shortwave trough heading east out of Southeast South Dakota into the Upper Midwest. This feature has been very progressive Today with widespread heavy snow occurring east and north of the upper low track with thunderstorms, ice, and rain farther southeast. 12 hour H5 height falls of 90 meters were found Today over Southeast South Dakota, Southwest Minnesota, Northwest Iowa, and Northeast Nebraska in association with this storm system. H8 temperatures as of 4 PM Today ranged from zero degrees C in Southeast Minnesota to -18 degrees C in extreme Northwest Minnesota. Bitterly cold air with H8 temps of -20 to -30 degrees C were found over much of Central and Western Canada Today.

Today's Weather:

Snow, heavy at times with visibilities of one quarter mile or less affected much of Western, Central, and eastern Minnesota Today with hourly snowfall rates of 1 to as much as 3 inches an hour reported in the most intense snow bands. Scattered thunderstorms even occurred across Southern Minnesota Today which were associated with ice and heavy snow. Snow even reached into Northern sections of the state, but amounts in the North have been less compared to areas farther south. Some heavier snow has also occurred Today along the North Shore of Lake Superior where synoptic snow combined with cold temps and a favorable NE wind off Lake Superior caused lake enhanced snowfall. Moisture with this system was plentiful with late Afternoon PWATS of .40"-.80" over Central, Eastern, and Southern areas of the state. Seeing another day with a big temperature contrast around Minnesota with highs in the 20s and 30s South to the single digits below zero Northwest... Remainder of Minnesota had highs mainly in the single digits and teens Today. Winds across the state were out of the north or east at 10 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to near 40 mph. Areas of blowing and drifting snow occurred over parts of the state Today thanks to the strong winds and the powerdery nature of the snow. Late Afternoon wind chills were in the single digits, teens, and 20s below across the North and West parts of Minnesota.

Temperatures around Minnesota at 4 PM ranged from 27 degrees at St. Paul to -2 degrees at Hallock to 3 degrees at Moorhead to 7 degrees at International Falls to 12 degrees at Duluth to 5 degrees at Ortonville to 20 degrees at St. Cloud to 21 degrees at Cambridge to 10 degrees at Pipestone to 28 degrees at Waseca to 31 degrees at Preston.

NOTE: A complete snowfall report from Today's winter storm will be issued on Friday.

Tonight:

Low pressure will deepen to around 997 mb as it tracks northeast into Lower Michigan. Snow on the backside of this low will continue to fall This Evening over Western, Central, and Eastern Minnesota...But, look for the snow to taper off from west to east over those areas of the state before Midnight. Some freezing rain and sleet will mix with the snow in Southeast Minnesota early Tonight before precipitation ends. Across Northern Minnesota, look for areas of light snow and flurries This Evening with some heavier snow showers continuing near Lake Superior, especially before 9 PM. Snowfall totals will likely range from 3 to 9 inches across all but Northern areas of the state. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found across Minnesota Tonight with arctic high pressure building into the state from the northwest during the night. The pressure difference between the deepening low to our southeast and the strong high off to our northwest will cause strong winds of 10 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph through most of the night. This will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow, even after the snow stops falling. Also, as low temperatures drop into the single digits South to the single digits, teens, and 20s below elsewhere...Wind chills will lower into the teens, 20s, and 30s below over most of Minnesota by later Tonight.

Friday and Friday Night:

Arctic high pressure will be in control of our weather which will result in partly to mostly cloudy skies along with very cold temperatures. There will be another area of low pressure heading southeast out of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, but this low should only affect Southwest areas of Minnesota with some light snow or flurries during this period. Highs Friday will be in the single digits and teens below to above zero with lows Friday Night in the single digits below to above zero with teens and 20s below Central and North. Winds Friday and Friday Night will be out of the north, northwest, or east around 20 mph or less.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure scoots S/SE of Minnesota over the weekend while another strong area of arctic high pressure builds into the state from the northwest...This high will begin to slide off to our east early next week. Looks mainly dry around Minnesota this weekend with high temperatures Saturday and Sunday in the single digits, teens, and 20s with some spots possibly staying a few degrees below zero across the North. Lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the single digits and teens below to above zero with some minus 20s and even some minus 30s possible up North. Looks like we could be in store for some periodic precipitation events around parts of Minnesota next week as low pressure systems head in from the west. Tracks of these lows and the intensity of each system will determine what falls from the sky and how much, and who sees the precip. One thing that has been a constant signal within the GFS model over the past couple days is for a stronger low coming out of the Western U.S., reaching the Upper Midwest or Lower Great Lakes region later next week. This is a long ways out, but it bears watching, since it could bring heavier snow, rain, thunder, or ice to parts of Minnesota later next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior:

*Winter Weather Advisory* in effect until 12 AM CST Tonight...

*Wind Chill Advisory* in effect from 9 PM CST Tonight until 9 AM CST Friday...

.Tonight... Snow tapering off to flurries between 8 PM and 10 PM... Total accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Skies becoming partly cloudy late. Very cold with gusty winds. Low 5 below to 12 below. Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph, becoming north during the Evening. Winds could occasionaly gust to 25 to 35 mph which will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. Wind chills ranging from 20 below to 35 below.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. A few flurries possible. High 5 to 10. Wind north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph. Morning wind chills ranging from 20 below to 35 below.

.Friday Night... Very cold. Partly cloudy. A few flurries possible. Low 5 below to 12 below. Wind northeast under 10 mph.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 10 to 15.

.Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 2 above to 5 below.

.Sunday... Mostly sunny. High 10 to 15.

.Sunday Night... Fair. Low zero to 5 below.

.Monday... Partly to mostly cloudy. High 17 to 22.

Normal High Temperature Today 28 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 9 degrees

Tim

2/26/09: This post has my pics...Not the previous one











These pics were taken by me as the most intense snow band passed thru Duluth Minnesota around Noon CST Today... Visibility was very poor, and on my way back walking in an easterly direction...All the snow was blowing right into my face, boy that was awesome, but insane, as the snow would melt...Then, re-freeze forming ice on my face-gotta love mother nature!
Tim

2/26/09: Pics/Vids from Today's Snow in Duluth, Minnesota

Issued at 1:36 PM CST, Thursday, February 26th, 2009

Between 2.5"-3.0" of snow here in West Duluth as of 1:30 PM Today, with the bulk of that falling within the last two hours. Seen a definate decrease in snowfall intensity per doppler radar around the Duluth area as of early This Afternoon...Seems like the most intense snow bands are now forming to the south and southeast of Duluth-Superior at the moment. Winds are still in a favorable E/NE direction here in the city for possible lake enhancement to the otherwise light snowfall, so i'll continue to monitor this possibility...But, right now it appears that the heaviest snow for the remainder of the Afternoon will run from Central and Southern Pine County Minnesota through all of Northwestern Wisconsin. Snow rates underneath this band could exceed one inch per hour, and some thundersnow is quite possible as well which could lead to hourly snowfall rates nearing two inches!

Winds have come up quite a bit here in the city as of Noon Today, gusts of 35 mph from the NE have been reported down at the Duluth Harbor. Visibilities for a time between 11 AM-12:30 PM Today were down to near zero at times as a real intense snow band passed through the city. I was out capturing this band of heavier snow, and i have pics and vids to post on a seperate blog.

Tim

2/26/09: Another update

Issued at 12:01 PM CST, Thursday, February 26th, 2009

*Winter Storm Warning* is now in effect for Southern Aitkin, Crow Wing, and Southern Cass Counties in Northcentral and Eastcentral Minnesota until 6 PM CST This Evening. This replaces the Winter Weather Advisory which was in effect for this area. Some cities included in this warning are: Leader MN... Brainerd MN... Pine Center MN... Pequot Lakes MN... Aitkin MN... Garrison MN... McGrath MN... And Malmo MN... Snowfall storm totals of 5-8" are expected in the warning area by This Evening.

*Winter Weather Advisory* is now in effect for Cook and Lake Counties in Northeast Minnesota until 6 PM CST This Evening. Some cities included in the advisory are: Two Harbors MN... Silver Bay MN... Isabella MN... Tofte MN... Grand Marais MN... Little Marais MN... Beaver Bay MN... And Castle Danger MN... Snow will accumulate 3 to 6 inches in the advisory area by This Evening. There's already been reports of up to 3 inches of snow This Morning around the Finland Minnesota area.

*Winter Weather Advisory* continues until Midnight CST Tonight for Duluth/Superior, including Southern St. Louis, Carlton, and Douglas Counties in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Tim

2/26/09: Snow Update

Issued at 11:25 AM CST, Thursday, February 26th, 2009

As of 11 AM Today...Snow total was closing in on one inch at my location in West Duluth Minnesota. It's been snowing steadily since about 7 AM Today with the latest doppler radar out of Duluth showing an area of moderate to heavy snow extending across Eastern Minnesota, affecting the counties of Pine, Carlton, Southern St. Louis and Southern-Eastern Aitkin County in Minnesota as well as Douglas, Southern Burnett, Southern Washburn, and Southern Sawyer Counties in Northwestern Wisconsin. The heaviest snow is taking shape over Southern Washburn County attm with max DBZ'S up to 30 per GR3 radar...Communities of Spooner, Shell Lake, and Sarona are seeing this heavy snow band at this time. There's also been a band of heavier snow over Northern Pine/Southern Carlton Counties near the towns of Kettle River, Moose Lake, Barnum, Denham, Sturgeon Lake, Willow River, Duquette, Bruno, and Kerrick. Movement of the snow was toward the northeast, although in Northwest Wisconsin...The snow area seems to be lifting slightly north-northeast.


Still should see 2 to possibly 5 inches of total snowfall here in the city by late Today as snow should persist into the Afternoon hours here in Duluth...One thing that may limit higher snow amounts in the city is the fact that the snow area seems to be shifting slightly east of northeast...If this band can start lifting more to the north, then this would prolong the snow potential around the head of Lake Superior. This doesn't seem to be happening at this time, but i'll continue to monitor it.
One last thing about Today...If you don't have to be anywhere, just stay home. Numerous traffic accidents have already been reported in the Duluth/Superior area This Morning and we haven't even seen that much snow, but it's been enough to make roads snow covered and slippery...If you have to drive Today or Tonight...SLOW DOWN!
I included a photo I took at around 11 AM Today of the snow here in West Duluth. I also have a short little video of the snowfall from This Morning. Enjoy.

video

2/26/09: Thursday Morning Winter Storm Update

Issued at 7:45 AM CST, Thursday, February 26th, 2009

*Winter Weather Advisory* is in effect for Duluth/Superior until Midnight CST Tonight... The National Weather Service in Duluth, MN has expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to include Southern St. Louis County, Carlton County, and now all of Aitkin and Cass County in Northcentral, Eastcentral, and Northeast Minnesota. Snow is already falling here in Duluth...The snow started around 7 AM Today, so far a light dusting of accumulation on roads here in the city.

Low pressure at 13z was centered over Central Kansas, near Dodge City with a pressure of 1004 mb with a solid area of 2 mb per 2 hour pressure falls noted per RUC model from Northern Missouri through Iowa, far Eastern Nebraska, on up into Southcentral Minnesota. A tight baroclinic zone remained in place over Minnesota This Morning with H8 temps as of 7 AM CT ranging from +1 to +3 degrees C across Southern Minnesota to -15 degrees C in Northwest Minnesota. Water vapor satellite imagery as of 1330z shows a well defined short wave trough progressing east through the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest with some convective type cloud elements (bumpy appearance on the satellite) noted over a small part of Central Minnesota.

As of 7 AM Today, snow was falling across much of Minnesota with the heaviest snowfall occurring in Westcentral Minnesota, also toward Central Minnesota...Or along and north of I94. Only areas of the state void of snow attm are Southcentral Minnesota as well as parts of Northern Minnesota. The snow continued to move off toward the E/NE.

I'm still concerned that Southern Minnesota may see more of a mixed precipitation event Today since the warm layer aloft hasn't eroded...P-types in that area will range from sleet to freezing rain to snow with some ice accumulations likely along with 1-4" of snowfall by This Evening...Again though, if precipitation trends toward more snow rather than ice, then snowfall totals would likely be higher.

The heaviest corridor of snow should fall from Westcentral through Central to Eastern Minnesota through late This Afternoon/Early Evening with 5-10" of total accumulation still expected. These areas of the state will be under the best warm advection and lift associated with this storm system Today.

Northern areas of the state will also see some snow Today, albeit less than what will happen farther south. Total accumulations across the North should range from a dusting to perhaps 2".

Still looks like 2-5" of snow will come down here in Duluth Today, but this will have to be watched closely, since we are fairly close to where some of the heavier snow bands may set-up This Afternoon...Also, will have an E/NE wind coming off Lake Superior by Noon Today through early This Evening which could cause some lake enhancement in the city.

More updates to come.

Tim

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

2/25/09: Winter Storm Update

Issued at 11:01 PM CST, Wednesday, February 25th, 2009

Surface analysis at 04z showed low pressure of 1005 mb centered over Eastern Wyoming...Or west of Rapid City South Dakota. A wide area of weak pressure falls stretched from Southern South Dakota down to North Texas late This Evening, so we should see the area of low pressure pull out into the Plains during the Overnight hours.

Water vapor satellite imagery along with the latest enhanced satellite imagery definately reveals that this system is beginning to take off now as forcing associated with this weather system heads out into South Dakota and Southern North Dakota. The main area of snow was favoring the Central, Northern, and Western part of South Dakota attm with movement toward the E/NE.

No changes have been made to the winter weather headlines that are in effect for various parts of Minnesota through Thursday Evening...Refer to my previous blog posting on this information.

The 00z model run from Tonight is pretty much on track with the 12z model run from earlier Today...Only change was that the newest NAM has shifted things (QPF) slightly more to the north again, kind of similar to last night's NAM run, before the 12z run This Morning took a shift to the south. So it appears that the NAM is having some issues with this developing storm.

The surface low itself should track from the Northern Kansas-Southern Nebraska area...East-northeast toward Chicago Illinois by Thursday Evening. Usually with this type of storm track, heavier snow would be confined to just Southern Minnesota and the South/East parts of Wisconsin, but this storm has lots of upper level support going for it, plus the tremendous temperature disparity. So this storm while lacking a real deep barometric pressure reading will be off-set by all the upper level support it has going for it.

Heaviest snow still looks to favor Western, Central, and Eastern Minnesota with amounts of 5 to 10 inches expected by Thursday Evening. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are forecast for parts of these areas on Thursday.

I'm more concerned that Southern Minnesota could see more ice or mixed precipitation and less snow as H8 temps of +2 to +4 degrees C were in place per late Evening RUC model, surface temps though were well below freezing in this area...So, as precipitation overspreads Southern Minnesota early Thursday through midday Thursday we could see more ice versus snow with one tenth inch or more of icing certainly possible, especially if this warm layer stays put... Assuming that ice or mixed precipitation lasts longer down South on Thursday, then total snow amounts will likely fall in the 1 to 4 inch range.

For Duluth proper...Snow should commence between 7 AM and 10 AM Thursday with the heavier snow with rates possibly reaching one half inch to one inch an hour moving into the city during the Afternoon or from around Noon through 7 PM. Snow should be winding down in the city Thursday Evening. In my previous forecast I was calling for 1-3" of total snowfall for Duluth, but after looking at the last few runs of the SREF model including the 21z model run, and after considering the latest GFS, NGM, and NAM forecasts...I will be raising my predicted snow totals to 2 to 5 inches for the city. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the National Weather Service in Duluth goes ahead and issues a Winter Weather Advisory for the city for Thursday and Thursday Evening. The other thing will have to keep an eye on is the E-NE wind which should develop Thursday Morning and linger through early Thursday Evening here in the city...This could result in lake enhanced snowfall around Lake Superior. Snow ratios here in the city look to be right around 15:1 while we fall under a favorable zone for snowflake growth for about 4-6 hours on Thursday.

I'll have more updates on this storm as it continues to develop and heads closer to Minnesota.

Stay tuned

Tim

2/25/09: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:02 PM CST, Wednesday, February 25th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 2007, 11.3" of snow fell at Duluth Minnesota with a liquid equivlant of 1.06".

On this date in 1990, a record low temperature of -26 degrees occurred at Duluth Minnesota.

Surface Analysis at 22z:

Low pressure averaging 1004 mb was centered over Southwest Wyoming with 2 hour pressure falls of 3 mb centered over Southeast Wyoming and Northern Colorado. Low pressure averaging 1010 mb moving into Eastern Ontario. A cold front connects the two lows with this boundary extending from Eastern Upper Michigan through Lake Michigan down to Central Illinois into Central Missouri...This front then backs northwest through Central Kansas into the Western half of Nebraska up to Eastern Wyoming. Incredible temperature contrasts remain in place around the U.S. and Canada Today with temperatures Today ranging from the 60s in Southern Nebraska to far Southern Iowa with mid 80s/low 90s common over Central and Western Texas while readings remain in the single digits and teens below zero over the Provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Incredible!

Upper Air Analysis at 22z:

The big weather story when one looks at the upper levels Today is the amazing baroclinic zone in place around the area Today. H8 temperatures at 4 PM CT Today ranged from +2 degrees C in Southern Minnesota, generally near the I90 corridor to -12 degrees C in Northern Minnesota. H8 temps of -20 to -26 degrees C were found over Northern-Western Ontario through Central-Northern parts of Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba Provinces with +10 to +24 degree C H8 temps covering much of the Central Plains, Rockies, and Southern U.S. late Today. H5 flow was from the west-northwest across the Upper Midwest Today with the disturbance that passed through the area last night now centered well to our east as of late Today. The next item of interest for our area is the shortwave trough heading through the Northern Rockies and toward the Western High Plains late Today per water vapor satellite imagery/500 mb analysis. There's also an upper level low centered just off the Washington Coast late Today with 90 meter H5 12 hour height falls occurring near this feature. This upper low was drifting toward the south-southeast Today.

Today's Weather:

First off, lets go back to the amazing temperature extremes that were found over the region Today. Here's a temperature report from 3 PM CST Today:

Grand Forks North Dakota: 3 degrees

Minot North Dakota: 1 degree

Rapid City South Dakota: 48 degrees

Sioux Falls South Dakota: 40 degrees

Glasgow Montana: 10 degrees

Cheyenne Wyoming: 55 degrees

Scottsbluff Nebraska: 63 degrees

Dauphin Manitoba: -4 degrees

Island Lake Manitoba: -11 degrees

The Pas Manitoba: -11 degrees

Thompson Manitoba: -15 degrees

Lynn Lake Manitoba: -20 degrees

Churchill Manitoba: -27 degrees

Gillam Manitoba: -18 degrees

Wind chills across parts of Manitoba and Saskatchewan were down into the minus 20s, 30s, and 40s Today.

The snow and mixed precipitation that occurred over parts of the state last night exited to our east by This Morning. Most spots that saw snow only picked up a couple tenths to one inch of snow, while just enough freezing rain and sleet caused a thin glaze of ice to form on roads, sidewalks, and vehicle tops earlier in the day. Here in Duluth, we saw a period of light freezing rain around 2:30 AM Today, then some light snow with about a dusting of accumulation by sun-up Today.

Here are some snowfall reports from earlier Today:

International Falls MN (Koochiching County) 1.4"

Kabetogama MN (St. Louis County) 1.8"

Embarrass MN (St. Louis County) 1.0"

4 miles west of Washburn WI (Bayfield County) 1.8"

Silver Bay MN (Lake County) 1.0"

Lutsen MN (Cook County) 1.8"

High temperatures around Minnesota Today ranged from the 30s and 40s in Southern areas with single digits Northwest. Partly to mostly cloudy skies were found over Minnesota with winds out of the northwest at 10 to 25 mph. Late Afternoon wind chills were down into the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero up in Northwestern Minnesota.

Note: Refer to my previous blogs for information regarding the various winter weather headlines that are in effect for Minnesota...

Tonight:

Low pressure will be heading toward the Western High Plains. Snow will develop over Western and Southwest Minnesota Tonight with some freezing rain or sleet even possible in Southwest Minnesota. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover the state with a strong area of high pressure centered well to our northwest. Lows Tonight will range from the single digits, teens, and 20s below in Northwest Minnesota with 20s and 30s South. Winds will be out of the north, northwest, or east at 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Low pressure is forecast to track from the Southern Nebraska-Northern Kansas area toward Chicago Illinois by Thursday Evening. Widespread snow, heavy at times will occur on Thursday over Western, Central, Eastern, and Southern Minnesota with 1-2" per hour snow rates quite possible on Thursday. Freezing rain and sleet could also occur in Southern Minnesota with some ice accumulations possible. Northern areas of the state could see some light snow or flurries on Thursday, but the heavier snow is expected to stay south of this area. By Thursday Night, snow will be tapering off from west to east as low pressure pulls away and strong arctic high pressure moves in from the northwest. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the single digits and teens below to above zero North and West with 20s and 30s South. Lows Thursday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero North, Central, and West with single digits South and East.

Snowfall storm totals by Thursday Evening will range from 4 to 10 inches over Southwest, Westcentral, Southern, Central, and Eastern Minnesota with less than an inch up North.

Extended Forecast:

As one arctic high moves away late this week, a new one will invade the state from the northwest this coming weekend. In between these arctic high invasions will see an upper level trough dig south/east across the Upper Midwest which could bring some snow showers or flurries to parts of Minnesota from Friday into Saturday, but no big snow making systems are expected across the state between Friday and Sunday the way it looks now. High temperatures in Minnesota will be in the single digits and teens Friday and Saturday with some 20s possible South, while some spots up North could stay below zero. Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the single digits and teens below to above zero with some 20s below North.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior:

*Winter Weather Advisory* in effect from 6 AM CST Thursday until 12 AM CST Thursday for Douglas County Wisconsin including the city of Superior...

.Tonight... Clear skies will give way to increasing cloudiness late. Low 10 to 15. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph, becoming north.

.Thursday... Snow developing. Accumulations of 1 to 2 inches possible. High 17 to 22. Wind north, becoming northeast at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 70%.

.Thursday Night... Snow showers and flurries. Additional accumulations of an inch or less. Storm totals 1-3". Low zero to 5 below. Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph. Wind chills of 15 below to 25 below zero.

.Friday... Scattered snow showers or flurries. Partly sunny. High 5 to 10. Chance of snow 20%.

.Friday Night... A few flurries possible. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low zero to 5 below.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 10 to 15.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 2 above to 5 below.

.Sunday... Mostly sunny. High 10 to 15.

5 PM Thompson Hill Observation:

Current Temperature: 27 degrees

Dewpoint: 12 degrees

Humidity: 53%

Wind: WNW at 4 mph G 10 mph

Max Temperature Today: 32.6 degrees

Max Humidity Today: 97%

Min Temperature Today: 23.7 degrees

Min Humidity Today: 50%

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 28 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 9 degrees

Tim

2/25/09: Winter Weather Headline Information in the Duluth area

Issued at 4:41 PM CST, Wednesday, February 25th, 2009

Following headlines issued by the National Weather Service:

*Winter Storm Warning* in effect from 6 AM CST Thursday until 6 PM CST Thursday for a small part of Eastern Minnesota and parts of Northwestern Wisconsin. Counties included in this warning are: Pine MN... Burnett WI... Washburn WI... Sawyer WI... And Price WI... Some cities included in the warning are: Hinckley MN... Pine City MN... Askov MN... Danbury WI... Grantsburg WI... Siren WI... Minong WI... Spooner WI... Shell Lake WI... Hayward WI... Winter WI... And Park Falls WI... Snow will spread northeast through the warning area on Thursday. Snow could become heavy at times with snowfall rates reaching one inch per hour possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches are expected by Thursday Evening with isolated higher amounts of 7 to 9 inches possible. In addition to the snow, winds will increase from the north to northeast on Thursday with gusts over 20 mph. This will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow making travel very difficult.

*Winter Weather Advisory* in effect from 6 AM CST Thursday until 6 PM CST Thursday for parts of Northcentral and Eastcentral Minnesota. Counties included in the advisory are: Southern Cass MN... Crow Wing MN... And Southern Aitkin MN... Some cities included in the advisory are: Backus MN... Leader MN... Brainerd MN... Pequot Lakes MN... Cross Lake MN... Aitkin MN... And McGrath MN... Snow will develop in the advisory area Thursday Morning and continue through the late Afternoon and early Evening hours. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches are possible in the advisory area. Winds will also increase out of the north to northeast on Thursday with gusts over 20 mph which will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. Travel will become quite hazardous on Thursday.

*Winter Weather Advisory* in effect from 6 AM CST Thursday until Midnight CST Thursday for parts of Northwest Wisconsin. Counties included in the advisory are: Douglas WI... Bayfield WI... Ashland WI... And Iron WI... Some cities included in the advisory are: Superior WI... South Range WI... Oliver WI... Patzau WI... Solon Springs WI... Gordon WI... Port Wing WI... Iron River WI... Bayfield WI... Drummond WI... Ashland WI... And Hurley WI... Snow will move northeast into the advisory area on Thursday with snow then continuing into Thursday Night. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches are possible in the advisory area by Thursday Night with locally higher totals possible along the South Shore of Lake Superior where north to northeast winds coming off Lake Superior could cause a period of lake enhanced snow. Travel will become quite difficult in the advisory area on Thursday.

Tim

2/25/09: Winter Weather Headline Information

Issued at 4:20 PM CST, Wednesday, February 25th, 2009

Following headlines issued by the National Weather Service:

*Winter Storm Warning* in effect from 6 AM CST Thursday until 6 PM CST Thursday for parts of Central, Eastern, and Southern Minnesota. This includes the cities of... Princeton... Morris... Glenwood... St. Cloud... Foley... Madison... Benson... Montevideo... Willmar... Granite Falls... Olivia... Gaylord... Redwood Falls... New Ulm... St. Peter... St. James... Mankato... Fairmont... And Blue Earth... 5 to 9 inches of snow is expected to fall in the warning area on Thursday, in addition to the snow...North to northeast winds will gust over 20 mph which will cause blowing and drifting snow and very poor driving conditions. A period of sleet or freezing rain may also occur Thursday Morning, especially across Southern Minnesota.

*Winter Storm Warning* in effect from 9 AM CST Thursday until Midnight CST Thursday for parts of Eastcentral and Southern Minnesota. This includes the cities of... Mora... Cambridge... Center City... Minneapolis... St. Paul... Stillwater... Shakopee... Le Sueur... Faribault... Red Wing... Waseca... Owatonna... And Albert Lea. 5 to 9 inches of snow is expected to fall in the warning area on Thursday, in addition to the snow...Winds out of the north to northeast will gust over 20 mph which will cause blowing and drifting snow. Travel will become very difficult in the warning area.

*Winter Storm Warning* in effect from 6 AM CST Thursday until 6 PM CST Thursday for a part of Westcentral and Central Minnesota. This includes the cities of... Alexandria... Long Prairie... And Little Falls... 3 to 7 inches of snow is expected to fall in the warning area on Thursday with isolated totals possibly reaching 7 to 9 inches. In addition to the snow...Winds will increase out of the north to northeast with gusts over 20 mph. This will cause blowing and drifting snow making travel very difficult.

*Winter Storm Warning* in effect from 12 AM CST Tonight until 6 PM CST Thursday for a part of Westcentral Minnesota. This includes the cities of... Breckenridge... Fergus Falls... Wadena... And Elbow Lake... 3 to 7 inches of snow is expected to fall in the warning area from late Tonight through Thursday with isolated totals possibly reaching 7 to 9 inches. In addition to the snow...Winds will increase out of the north to northeast with gusts over 20 mph. This will cause blowing and drifting snow making travel very difficult.

*Winter Storm Warning* in effect from 3 AM CST Tonight until 9 PM CST Thursday for parts of Southwest Minnesota. This includes the cities of... Worthington... Jackson... Ivanhoe... Marshall... Slayton... Windom... And Pipestone. Snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches are expected in the warning area from late Tonight through Thursday. A period of sleet or freezing rain could also occur early Thursday. In addition to the snow...Winds will increase with gusts over 20 mph. This will cause blowing and drifting snow making travel very difficult.

*Winter Storm Warning* in effect from 12 AM CST Tonight until 6 PM CST Thursday for a part of far Western Minnesota. This includes the cities of... Wheaton... And Ortonville. Snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches are expected in the warning area from late Tonight through Thursday with isolated totals possibly reaching 7 to 10 inches. In addition to the snow...Winds will increase with gusts over 20 mph. This will cause blowing and drifting snow making travel very difficult.

*Winter Storm Warning* in effect from 9 AM CST Thursday until 9 PM CST Thursday for Southeast Minnesota. This includes the cities of... Rochester... Winona... And Austin. Snow, possibly mixed with sleet or freezing rain will occur in the warning area on Thursday. Snow totals of 3 to 7 inches are expected with ice accumulations ranging from 0.05" to around 0.25". Travel will become very difficult on Thursday.

*Wind Chill Advisory* in effect from 6 PM CST Thursday until 12 PM CST Thursday for Northwest Minnesota. This includes the cities of... Crookston... Hallock... Roseau... Baudette... Thief River Falls... Red Lake Falls... Fosston... Bagley... And Bemidji. Temperatures will range from around 5 above to 10 below through early Thursday Afternoon, this combined with wind speeds at 10 to 20 mph will cause wind chills to lower into the 20 below to 35 below zero range. Make sure to cover up all exposed skin if you will be spending any time outdoors in the advisory area.

*Winter Weather Advisory* in effect from 12 AM CST Tonight until 6 PM CST Thursday for a part of Westcentral Minnesota. This includes the cities of... Moorhead... Park Rapids... And Detroit Lakes. Snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches are expected in the advisory area from late Tonight through Thursday. In addition to the snow...Northerly winds will increase with gusts over 20 mph. This will cause blowing and drifting snow making travel very difficult.

Tim

Winter Storm Threat

Issued at 2:15 AM CST, Wednesday, February 25th, 2009

00z model guidance from Tuesday Night has made quite a shift to the north in regards to the heavy snow area for Thursday. Leading the way is the 00z NAM with the 00z NGM even slightly more to the north than the NAM... 21z SREF has trended north as well. The NAVY-NOGAPS and Gem-Global models are somewhat lighter in regards to precipitation amounts for Minnesota, but still show advisory and or warning criteria snowfall being met over portions of the state. The 00z GFS which has been the southern outliar for days is slowly coming around to the more northern solutions... Also of note...The 00z MM5 model also cranks out quite a bit of precip around all but Northern areas of the state on Thursday

Bottom line is this... The winter storm for Thursday and Thursday Evening could be tracking a bit more to the north. Will have to watch the next two model runs that come out Today to see if the ooz model run from Tonight was on to something, or if it was just a bad run.

The latest model guidance would point to several inches of snow as far north as Duluth for Thursday with advisory and possibly warning level snowfall totals in the city by late Thursday Night. Right now it would appear that a solid 3-6" of snow would fall in the city from the system itself, but with E-NE winds coming off Lake Superior...This could enhance the snow with a couple more inches added onto the storm totals.

The National Weather Service in Duluth could be issuing winter storm watches, warnings, or advisories for parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Thursday and Thursday Evening.

Stay tuned...

Tim

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

2/24/09: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:12 PM CST, Tuesday, February 24th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 2001, 11.7" of snow fell at Duluth Minnesota.

Surface Analysis at 22z:

Low pressure averaging 1006 mb was centered over Westcentral South Dakota. A trough attached to this low was over Northwest Minnesota into Northeast South Dakota. A cold front extended from Western Ontario to the border of North Dakota and Manitoba.

Upper Air Analysis at 22z:

A general zonal flow (west to east) aloft was present around the Upper Midwest Today with a disturbance heading east through Southern Canada and the Northern Plains. 12 hour H5 height falls on the order of 60-90 meters were occurring Today near this system over Central and Northern Montana into adjacent areas of Alberta and Saskatchewan. A huge temperature contrast exists around the U.S. and Canada Today with late Afternoon H8 temperatures ranging from +6 degrees C in Southwest Minnesota to zero to -2 degrees C in far Northern-Northeast Minnesota. Bitter cold arctic air was beginning to push into Central-Western Canada Today with late Afternoon H8 temperatures of -16 to -20 degrees C found in those areas...Meanwhile, across the Central and Western U.S., temps of +10 to +24 degrees C were common Today.

Today's Weather:

The temperature battle zone has developed...Seeing highs in the 80s and 90s across Texas with 60s as far north as Southern South Dakota with 50s into Southwest Minnesota. 20s, 30s, and 40s were common over the rest of Minnesota Today. Temperatures over Central and Western Canada were in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero Today with a wind chill as low as 56 below at Churchill Manitoba per 5 PM CT observation. The low pressure system moving in from the west has been producing areas of snow and mixed precipitation Today over parts of North Dakota with some snow moving into Northwest Minnesota as of early This Evening. Precipitation was generally moving in a west to east direction Today.

Temperatures around Minnesota at 5 PM ranged from 38 degrees at St Paul to 23 degrees at Warroad to 30 degrees at International Falls to 34 degrees at Grand Rapids to 29 degrees at Duluth to 43 degrees at Willmar to 34 degrees at Aitkin to 36 degrees at Rush City to 50 degrees at Granite Falls to 52 degrees at Pipestone to 46 degrees at Fairmont to 37 degrees at Rochester.

Tonight:

Area of low pressure will track into Minnesota. Snow will develop across Northern Minnesota with accumulations of 1 to around 3 inches possible by Morning. Areas of snow, sleet, or freezing rain will develop over Western, Central, and Eastern areas of the state Tonight with up to an inch of snow possible by Morning. Southern Minnesota should stay mainly dry Tonight. Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 20s and 30s with teens and single digits Northwest. Winds will be out of the south, east, or northwest around 20 mph or less.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

*Winter Storm Watch* is in effect late Wednesday Night through Thursday Afternoon for a small part of Westcentral Minnesota... This includes the cities of Wheaton... And Ortonville.

Low pressure will exit to the east of Minnesota during this period while a cold front attached to this low passes northwest-southeast through the state. Any snow or mixed precipitation will end across Northern and Eastcentral Minnesota Wednesday Morning, then look for dry conditions around the state on Wednesday...Then, by Wednesday Night some snow or mixed precip may develop over Western-Southwest areas of the state ahead of the next low pressure system which will begin to organize across the Plains during this period. Highs on Wednesday will range from the 30s and 40s South and East with single digits Northwest. Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 20s and 30s South and East with single digits and teens below to above zero North and West.

Extended Forecast:

*Winter Storm Watch* is in effect Thursday Morning through Thursday Evening for parts of Southwest Minnesota. This includes the cities of Ivanhoe... Marshall... Slayton... Windom... And Pipestone.

*Winter Storm Watch* is in effect Thursday Afternoon through Thursday Evening for parts of Southeast Minnesota. This includes the cities of Rochester... Winona... And Austin.

*Winter Storm Watch* is in effect Thursday Afternoon through Thursday Evening for parts of Southcentral and Eastern Minnesota. This includes the cities of Minneapolis... St. Paul... Chaska... Shakopee... Le Sueur... Faribault... Red Wing... Waseca... Owatonna... And Albert Lea.

*Winter Storm Watch* is in effect Thursday Morning through Thursday Afternoon for parts of Westcentral, Southwest, and Southern Minnesota. This includes the cities of Madison... Montevideo... Benson... Willmar... Granite Falls... Olivia... Redwood Falls... New Ulm... St. Peter... St. James... Mankato... Fairmont... And Blue Earth.

Low pressure will deepen across the Plains on Thursday with this low heading northeast to between Milwaukee Wisconsin and Chicago Illinois by Thursday Evening based on the 12z model guidance. This low which will deepen to around 997 mb combined with a strong 1030 plus mb arctic high building into Minnesota from the northwest will lead to some gusty winds around Minnesota from Thursday into early Friday. This storm will also bring snow to most of Minnesota Thursday and Thursday Night with the heaviest corridor of snow expected to fall from Southwest and Westcentral Minnesota through the Southern half of Minnesota...Snow totals in these areas could reach 4 to 8 inches with local 10 to 12 inches amounts possible. Southeast and far Southern Minnesota will likely see snow too with rain or ice also possible for a time on Thursday...Snow totals in these areas could reach 3 to 6 inches, possibly more... Northern Minnesota should escape the brunt of the synoptic snow with this storm, but some light snow and flurries with up to an inch accumulation possible in this area. Communities near Lake Superior, along the North Shore of Lake Superior could also see some lake effect snow or lake enhanced snow from Thursday Afternoon into Thursday Night thanks to a possible wind shift toward the NE, this combined with plenty of cold air in place could lead to some lake effect snow.

This whole storm will exit into Eastern Canada by Friday with mainly dry weather expected around the state Friday and Friday Night as high pressure moves in.

High temperatures around Minnesota will be in the 30s Southeast and single digits below zero Northwest on Thursday with single digits, teens, and 20s common elsewhere. Lows Thursday Night will be in the single digits and teens below to above zero with 20s below possible Northwest. Highs Friday will be in the single digits and teens below to above zero with lows Friday Night in the single digits and teens below to above zero with some 20s below possible North.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior:

.Tonight... Increasing clouds. Snow possible Overnight. The snow could be mixed with sleet. Snow accumulations around an inch possible by Morning. Low 20 to 25. Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Mostly cloudy. Snow possible early. Snow could be mixed with sleet. Additional snow accumulations under one inch. High 28 to 33. Wind west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph, becoming northwest.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 10 to 15. Wind northwest to north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Mostly cloudy. Snow possible. High 20 to 25. Chance of snow 30%. Some accumulation possible.

.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Snow possible, mainly during the Evening. Low zero to 5 below. Chance of snow 30%. Some accumulation possible.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 5 to 10.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low zero to 5 below.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 10 to 15.

5 PM Thompson Hill Observation:

Current Temperature: 25.2 degrees

Dewpoint: 17 degrees

Humidity: 72%

Wind: E at 3 mph G 6 mph

Max Temperature Today: 38 degrees

Max Humidity Today: 77%

Min Temperature Today: 12.2 degrees

Min Humidity Today: 42%

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 28 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 9 degrees

Tim

Monday, February 23, 2009

2/23/09: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:33 PM CST, Monday, February 23rd, 2009

Here are some low temperatures from around the area earlier Today, February 23rd, 2009.

Duluth MN: -9 degrees

International Falls MN: -20 degrees

Ely MN: -20 degrees

Orr MN: -20 degrees

Pine River MN: -17 degrees

Superior WI: -6 degrees

Babbitt MN: -22 degrees

Embarrass MN: -23 degrees

3 miles West of Floodwood MN: -16 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: -22 degrees

Littlefork MN: -17 degrees

Staples MN: -11 degrees

Milaca MN: -11 degrees

Long Prairie MN: -10 degrees

Baudette MN: -13 degrees

Park Rapids MN: -14 degrees

Wadena MN: -15 degrees

Bemidji MN: -11 degrees

Hallock MN: -13 degrees

Roseau MN: -11 degrees

Warroad MN: -11 degrees

Surface Analysis at 22z:

High pressure ridge averaging 1034 mb has shifted to the northeast, east, and southeast of Minnesota. Low pressure averaging 1012 mb was centered Southcentral Montana. A warm front extended from Eastern Montana to Western Nebraska. Pockets of 60 degree temperatures were found southwest of this warm frontal boundary Today over Southeast Montana and Eastern Wyoming...Meanwhile, temperatures in the 80s and 90s were building over Southern Arizona and Western Mexico.

Upper Air Analysis at 22z:

Deep upper trough covered the Eastern U.S. with another upper level trough moving into the Western U.S. In between, there was an H5 ridge extending from the Southwest U.S. into the Plains. This week is going to be one characterized by huge temperature extremes from north to south across the U.S. Today's H8 temperatures ranged from zero to -2 degrees C across Southwest Minnesota to -8 to -12 degrees C across Northern, Central, and Eastern Minnesota. H8 temps of +2 to +8 degree C temps were found over the Northern Plains and Northern Rockies with +20 to +26 degree C H8 temps covering the Southwest U.S. into Mexico. The flow aloft over the Upper Midwest was generally from the west Today with a couple of weak disturbances seen on water vapor satellite imagery tracking east out of the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains with a strong upper level low heading east-northeast toward Oregon and Washington late Today.

Today's Weather:

A very cold, but sunny start to the day has changed to one with warm advection, a southerly wind, and an increase in cloud cover around Minnesota This Afternoon as high pressure shifts to our east. A southerly wind combined with cold air in place earlier in the day even caused some scattered lake effect clouds and snow showers to develop along the North Shore of Lake Superior generally over Southeastern Lake and Southern Cook Counties in Northeast Minnesota. High temperatures Today were in the teens and 20s with some low 30s Southwest. Winds across the state were out of the south or east around 20 mph or less.

Temperatures around Minnesota at 4 PM ranged from 22 degrees at St Paul to 23 degrees at Roseau to 18 degrees at Park Rapids to 21 degrees at Big Fork to 16 degrees at Duluth to 25 degrees at Willmar to 19 degrees at Staples to 25 degrees at Moose Lake to 34 degrees at Pipestone to 31 degrees at Canby to 25 degrees at Fairmont to 20 degrees at Rochester.

Tonight:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover Minnesota with lows in the single digits, teens, and 20s. Winds will be out of the south or east around 20 mph or less. There's been some radar echoes tracking east through the Dakotas toward Western Minnesota Today, but none of this has been reaching the ground due to a dry airmass in place...Some moistening of the atmosphere could occur during the night which may lead to a few snow showers or flurries reaching the surface, mainly over Northern and Eastern parts of the state.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Low pressure will head east out of the Northern Rockies during this period with a warm front and cold front attached to this low heading into the state by Tuesday Afternoon/Night. Should see some snow develop across Northern Minnesota during this period with accumulations of 1 to possibly 4 inches occurring by early Wednesday. Some snow, sleet, or freezing rain could develop Tuesday Afternoon and Night for parts of Western, Central, and Eastern Minnesota with up to a half inch or inch of snow possible for Eastcentral areas of the state by early Wednesday. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies are forecast on Tuesday with highs in the 20s and 30s with some 40s possible South. Lows Tuesday Night under mostly cloudy skies will settle into the 20s and 30s with single digits and teens possible Northwest. Winds on Tuesday will be out of the south, west, or east at 10 to 20 mph. Winds Tuesday Night will be from the southeast, west, or north around 20 mph or less.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will exit Minnesota to the east on Wednesday which will end the snow or mixed precipitation threat...Then, look for an arctic frontal boundary to drop south/east across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest from Wednesday into late Thursday. Still seeing plenty of differences with Today's set of forecast models in regards to how far south and east this arctic air will spread, and also in regards to the track and intensity of a possible low pressure system that could take shape over the Southern or Central Plains by mid-week. It should be mainly dry around Minnesota on Wednesday with a wide range in temperatures expected with highs from the single digits below to above zero Northwest to the 30s and 40s South and East. Lows Wednesday Night will be in the single digits and teens below to above zero North and West to the 20s and 30s South. Highs Thursday will be in the single digits and teens below to above zero North and West with 30s and possible 40s Southeast with lows Thursday Night in the teens and 20s below zero Northwest with 20s Southeast.

The period from Wednesday Night through late Thursday is one that could feature some accumulating snowfall for Western, Central, Eastern, and Southern areas of Minnesota with some heavy snowfall totals possible, depending on the exact track and intensity of the Plains low. Rain or some freezing rain could also fall in Southern areas of Minnesota on Thursday.

The weather from Friday through most of the weekend should be generally dry across Minnesota the way it looks now with a cold airmass in place as strong high pressure settles into the Upper Mississippi Valley region.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior:

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy. Low 7 to 12. Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday... Considerable cloudiness. High 25 to 30. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Light snow or flurries possible. Low 20 to 25. Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 30%.

.Wednesday... Mostly cloudy. Light snow or flurries possible, mainly early. Total accumulations less than one inch. High 28 to 33. Chance of snow 20%.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 10 to 15.

.Thursday... Mostly cloudy. Snow possible. High 20 to 25. Chance of snow 20%.

.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Snow possible. Low zero to 5 below. Chance of snow 20%.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 5 to 10.

4 PM Thompson Hill Observation:

Current Temperature: 16 degrees

Dewpoint: 6 degrees

Humidity: 65%

Wind: E at 4 mph G 10 mph

Max Temperature Today: 23.6 degrees

Max Humidity Today: 82%

Min Temperature Today: zero degrees

Min Humidity Today: 42%

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 27 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 8 degrees

Tim

Sunday, February 22, 2009

2/22/09: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:10 PM CST, Sunday, February 22nd, 2009

Surface Analysis at 21z:

High pressure ridge averaging 1036-1040 mb was centered from Manitoba Province down through the Eastern Dakotas. Low pressure averaging 1012 mb was centered over Southwest Quebec.

Upper Air Analysis at 21z:

500 mb low had moved into Southeastern Ontario attm per water vapor satellite imagery. Northwest flow aloft continued around the Upper Midwest Today on the backside of this low. A large storm system was spinning across the Pacific Northwest/Western Canada/and adjacent areas of the Pacific Ocean Today with an upper level trough heading into the Pacific Northwest. In between the northwest flow aloft around here and the upper trough heading toward the Northwest U.S. is an H5 ridge which was building across the Central-Western Plains per 24 hour 500 mb height rises which have been pretty strong in those areas. 850 mb temperatures at 4 PM Today ranged from -18 degrees C in far Northeast Minnesota to -10 to -12 degrees C across the Southwest half of the state. -20 to -22 degree C H8 temperatures were found across Western-Central Ontario Today, but these temperatures will remain northeast of Minnesota.

Today's Weather:

Pretty quiet day around the state as arctic high pressure controls our weather. Skies were partly to mostly cloudy with highs mainly in the teens and low 20s. Winds were out of the northwest around 5 to 20 mph.

Here's some of the higher barometer readings I could find from 3 PM Today...

Hallock Minnesota: 30.56"

Crookston Minnesota: 30.57"

Moorhead Minnesota: 30.55"

Wheaton Minnesota: 30.56"

Fergus Falls Minnesota: 30.54"

Thompson Manitoba: 30.61"

Churchill Manitoba: 30.61"

Gillam Manitoba: 30.60"

Temperatures around Minnesota at 4 PM Today ranged from 16 degrees at Lakeville to 12 degrees at Crookston to 10 degrees at Hallock to 16 degrees at Grand Rapids to 12 degrees at Ely to 13 degrees at Elbow Lake to 16 degrees at Staples to 18 degrees at Cambridge to 15 degrees at Tracy to 16 degrees at New Ulm to 21 degrees at Winona.

Tonight:

Arctic high pressure ridge will settle over Minnesota resulting in clear to partly cloudy skies and very cold temperatures. Lows will bottom out in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero for most areas with northwest or variable winds under 15 mph.

Monday and Monday Night:

Arctic high pressure ridge will slide to the east of Minnesota during this period. Warm advection and a wind shift to the south-southeast will occur as this high moves away. Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies during this period with some flurries or snow showers possible across the North by Monday Night. Highs Monday will be in the teens and 20s with some 30s Southwest. Lows Monday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s. Wind speeds will generally range from 10 to 20 mph Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night.

Extended Forecast:

This part of the forecast is one filled with uncertainity. Basically what will see happen is a tightening baroclinic zone become established across the Northern Plains into Northern Minnesota by mid-week...This tight thermal gradient is expected to drop south/east through all of Minnesota later in the week. Low pressure systems are expected to track along and south of this temperature contrast, beginning on Tuesday and continuing into later this week. How far south this arctic air gets will determine the tracks of these low pressure systems. The models are really going back and fourth from one run to the next in regards to the track and intensity of these systems by mid to late week. Alot of the uncertainity seems to be stemming from how the polar vortex evolves this week once it reaches Saskatchewan-Manitoba. If it builds more from the Northern Plains west to the Northern Rockies, then the Upper Midwest could see a larger storm system emerge from the Plains which could cause heavier precipitation around parts of Minnesota later in the week...If the arctic air comes more directly into Minnesota after Wednesday, then any threat for a more organized storm system will pretty much be gone as the arctic air will have invaded the state keeping any storm systems on a track from the Southern Plains up toward the Ohio Valley. The forecast models will continue to struggle with how the pattern evolves in the coming days, so changes in the forecast will likely occur from day to day.

Backing up to Tuesday and Wednesday for a moment, there appears to be some threat for snow affecting the North half of Minnesota during this period, with the better chance coming sometime Tuesday Night into midday Wednesday the way it looks now. It's certainly within the realm of possibility that a couple inches of snow could accumulate over portions of Northern Minnesota as an area of low pressure heads out of the Northern Rockies, toward Lake Superior. A potential also exists for a bit of snow, sleet, or freezing rain with this same system over parts of Western, Central, and Eastern Minnesota.

High temperatures around Minnesota will be in the 20s, 30s, and 40s Tuesday and Wednesday with single digits and teens possible in Northwest parts of the state by Wednesday. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the teens, 20s, and 30s with lows Wednesday Night in the 20s and 30s South to the single digits below to above zero Northwest.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior:

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 5 below to 11 below. Wind northwest around 12 mph.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 16 to 23. Wind variable under 10 mph, becoming southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday Night... Becoming mostly cloudy. Snow flurries possible late. Low 5 to 10. Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday... Mostly cloudy. Light snow or flurries possible. High 25 to 30. Chance of snow 20%.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Light snow or flurries possible. Low 20 to 25. Chance of snow 30%.

.Wednesday... Mostly cloudy. Light snow or flurries possible. High 28 to 33. Chance of snow 30%.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 10 to 15.

.Thursday... Mostly cloudy. Snow possible. High 20 to 25. Chance of snow 20%.

4 PM Thompson Hill Observation:

Current Temperature: 18.9 degrees

Dewpoint: zero degrees

Humidity: 44%

Wind: NNW at 6 mph G 13 mph

Max Temperature Today: 21 degrees

Max Humidity Today: 87%

Min Temperature Today: 1.6 degrees

Min Humidity Today: 43%

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 27 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 8 degrees

Tim

Saturday, February 21, 2009

2/21/09: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:10 PM CST, Saturday, February 21st, 2009

Weather History:

On this date last year, the low temperature reached -17 degrees at Duluth Minnesota.

Here are some snowfall reports around the area from last night and early Today...

Northeast Minnesota/Northwest Wisconsin:

Duluth MN (St. Louis County) 0.9"

Sarona WI (Washburn County) 1.5"

7 miles East-Northeast of Bruno MN (Pine County) 1.0"

12 miles North of Isle MN (Aitkin County) 1.6"

5 miles Southwest of Brainerd MN (Crow Wing County) 3.0"

4 miles North of Grantsburg WI (Burnett County) 2.1"

3 miles Northeast of Nisswa MN (Crow Wing County) 1.5"

5 miles North of Pillager MN (Cass County) 2.5"

Trade Lake WI (Burnett County) 4.0"

Saginaw MN (St. Louis County) 1.0"

9 miles North of Cumberland WI (Washburn County) 3.0"

Central/Southern/and Eastern Minnesota:

Chanhassen MN (Carver County) 6.5"

5 miles North of Cambridge MN (Isanti County) 5.5"

Isanti MN (Isanti County) 5.0"

Forest Lake MN (Washington County) 4.8"

Minneapolis MN (Hennepin County) 4.4"-total at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport

St. Cloud MN (Stearns County) 3.8"

Redwood Falls MN (Redwood County) 3.5"

Fairmont MN (Martin County) 3.5"

Milaca MN (Mille Lacs County) 3.0"

8 miles Southwest of Granite Falls (Yellow Medicine County) 3.0"

Westcentral Minnesota:

Moorhead MN (Clay County) 2.7"

3 miles South of Dalton MN (Otter Tail County) 3.7"

Sebeka MN (Wadena County) 2.8"

Wadena MN (Wadena County) 3.7"

Breckenridge MN (Wilkin County) 3.0"

Southwest Minnesota:

Ivanhoe MN (Lincoln County) 3.5"

Marshall MN (Lyon County) 3.0"

Windom MN (Cottonwood County) 3.5"

Southeast Minnesota:

3 miles East of Spring Valley MN (Fillmore County) 4.2"

1 mile North of La Crescent MN (Houston County) 4.7"

Stewartville MN (Olmstead County) 5.2"

Zumbro Falls MN (Wabasha County) 4.0"

Winona MN (Winona County) 5.3"

Surface Analysis at 21z:

Low pressure averaging 1005 mb was centered over Southcentral Lake Michigan...Or to the northeast of Milwaukee Wisconsin. High pressure averaging 1030 mb was centered over Northeast Montana.

Upper Air Analysis at 21z:

North-Northwest flow aloft was occurring over the Upper Midwest This Afternoon with a deep upper level trough spreading south and east for areas from the Rockies through the Plains up into the Great Lakes. Potent 500 mb low with 12 hour H5 height falls of 150 meters covered areas from Northcentral Illinois to Southern Wisconsin to Southwestern Lake Michigan with the center of that upper low near Milwaukee Wisconsin attm per RUC H5 model analysis/radar/and water vapor satellite imagery. A weak upper level ridge was centered over the Western U.S. while a new upper trough stays put just off the U.S. West Coast. Temperatures aloft have trended downward once again around Minnesota with 850 mb temps ranging from -14 to -16 degrees C statewide as of 3 PM Today.

Today's Weather:

Scattered snow showers and flurries continued as of late Today over Southeast Minnesota on the backside of the departing surface and upper level low heading toward the Eastern Great Lakes. The rest of Minnesota was mainly dry by the Afternoon hours with skies across the state generally partly to mostly cloudy. Highs Today were in the teens and 20s with winds out of the north or west at 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 20 to around 30 mph.

Temperatures at 3 PM around Minnesota ranged from 21 degrees at St Paul to 10 degrees at Crookston to 9 degrees at Detroit Lakes to 15 degrees at International Falls to 18 degrees at Hibbing to 9 degrees at Wadena to 12 degrees at Pine River to 21 degrees at Moose Lake to 15 degrees at Olivia to 14 degrees at New Ulm to 27 degrees at Winona. Late Afternoon wind chills around the state were running in the 10 above to around 10 below zero range.

Tonight through Sunday Night:

Cold high pressure ridge will control Minnesota's weather for the rest of the weekend. Look for partly to at times mostly cloudy skies around the state with lows Tonight and Sunday Night in the single digits below to above zero with teens and even some 20s below possible across the North, especially Sunday Night as the ridge moves overhead. Highs Sunday will rebound into the teens and 20s with some spots North and West possibly staying in the single digits. Winds will be out of the north or west through Sunday Night around 20 mph or less.

Extended Forecast:

High pressure ridge will begin to push off to the south-east of Minnesota on Monday with a return flow of milder air developing in it's wake. Should stay dry around the state on Monday with highs in the teens and 20s with some 30s possible Southwest, lows Monday Night will be in the single digits and teens above to below zero with highs Tuesday in the 20s and 30s with some 40s even possible South. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 20s and 30s with some teens and single digits possible Northwest.

The period from Tuesday through Thursday will feature a strengthening baroclinic zone I.E. temperature gradient extending from Central Canada down into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A couple of lows will likely track west to east near and slightly south of this big temperature gradient during the Tuesday through Thursday time period. Each one of those low pressure systems could bring some snow, rain, or mixed precipitation to parts of Minnesota depending on there track. There's been some agreement seen between the models over the past few days for a system to affect the North half of Minnesota's weather from late Tuesday into Wednesday with some accumulating snow or mixed precipitation. Then, another system could target Southern/Eastern areas of Minnesota toward Thursday with some snow or mixed precip as bitter cold arctic air pours south-southeast from Central Canada down into the Upper Midwest and begins to shift the storm track farther and farther south. It should be noted that the forecast models are not in agreement after the early part of next week, and changes to the forecast may occur in the coming days. Were really gonna have to keep a close eye on all the bitterly cold air that will be building in Saskatchewan and Manitoba Province by the middle of the week, because if this cold air gets pulled into Minnesota...Then, low temps could easily drop into the 20s and even 30s below zero toward later next week and next weekend with H85 temps in the -20 to -28 degree C range during that period. That's about as cold as it can get for this time of year. Also, if this bitter cold air makes it into the U.S., there will be a possibility for a bigger low pressure system to form and track from the Plains toward the Great Lakes ahead of this arctic surge later next week. With all the arctic air surges we've had to deal with here in Minnesota this Winter, it would seem pretty likely that the pattern will once again become favorable to bring more bitter cold air down into Minnesota. Lately we've seen the upper air pattern change quite a bit, but these new patterns aren't able to sustain themselves for prolonged periods of time.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior:

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered flurries possible. Low 3 below to 4 above. Wind northwest around 15 mph.

.Sunday... Variable clouds. Scattered flurries possible. High 15 to 20. Wind northwest around 15 mph.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 1 above to 5 below. Wind northwest under 12 mph.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 20 to 25.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 5 to 10.

.Tuesday... Mostly cloudy. Light snow or flurries possible. High 25 to 30. Chance of snow 20%.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Light snow possible. Low 20 to 25. Chance of snow 20%.

.Wednesday... Mostly cloudy. Light snow possible. High 28 to 33. Chance of snow 20%.

3 PM Thompson Hill Observation:

Current Temperature: 21.9 degrees

Dewpoint: 3 degrees

Humidity: 44%

Wind: NW at 7 mph G 15 mph

Max Temperature Today: 22.8 degrees

Max Humidity Today: 93%

Min Temperature Today: 10.6 degrees

Min Humidity Today: 44%

Normal High Temperature Today 26 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 7 degrees

Tim

Friday, February 20, 2009

2/20/09: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 5 PM CST, Friday, February 20th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 2005, 4.6" of snow fell at Duluth Minnesota.

On this date last year, the low temperature fell to -16 degrees at Duluth Minnesota.

Here are some low temperatures from around the area earlier Today, Friday, February 20th, 2009.

Duluth MN: -8 degrees

International Falls MN: -23 degrees

Hibbing MN: -14 degrees

Ely MN: -20 degrees

Orr MN: -18 degrees

Crane Lake MN: -18 degrees

Cook MN: -20 degrees

Bigfork MN: -15 degrees

Superior WI: -4 degrees

Embarrass MN: -24 degrees

3 miles West of Floodwood MN: -15 degrees

Kabetogama MN: -25 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: -25 degrees

Littlefork MN: -18 degrees

Northome MN: -14 degrees

Surface Analysis at 22z:

Low pressure averaging 1012 mb was heading into Western Iowa. A trough stretched from Southwest Ontario across Western Minnesota into Southeast South Dakota. High pressure averaging 1028 mb was centered over Southwest Saskatchewan.

Upper Air Analysis at 22z:

A vigorous upper level disturbance is digging S/E across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest This Afternoon with the H5 low clearly visibile on satellite imagery passing south-southeast through Southeast North Dakota into the Northeast half of South Dakota. A pocket of 90-120 meter 500 mb height falls were located over Central and Southern North Dakota through Northern, Western, and Central South Dakota with this storm system. Quite a nice thermal gradient was in place around the Plains and Upper Midwest Today with late Afternoon H85 temps ranging from +2 to +12 degrees C from Southwest Iowa and Southern Nebraska south through Kansas and Oklahoma with -6 degrees in far Southwest Minnesota down to -14 degrees C across Northern Minnesota.

Today's Weather:

Strong upper level low along with a weaker surface low continued to track SE out of the Northern Plains. Good warm advection, some frontogeneis, and a plume of .20"-.30" PWS has resulted in the development of snow Today from Western through Central down into Southern Minnesota. Many locations have had visibilities fall to one quarter to one half mile Today in the heavier snow bursts. Movement of the snow was toward the east-southeast. The only parts of Minnesota that haven't seen much if any snow Today was the Northern part and the Southeast part of the state. Partly to mostly cloudy skies covered Minnesota Today with high temperatures in the teens, 20s, and low 30s. Winds were out of the south, east, or north around 5 to 20 mph.

Tonight and Saturday:

*Winter Weather Advisory* is in effect until 9 PM CST for parts of Southwest and Westcentral Minnesota including the cities of... Alexandria... Morris... Glenwood... Madison... Benson... Montevideo... Willmar... Granite Falls... Olivia... Redwood Falls... New Ulm... St Peter... St James... Fairmont... Wheaton... Ortonville... Ivanhoe... Marshall... Slayton... Windom... And Jackson...

*Winter Weather Advisory* is in effect until Midnight CST for parts of Westcentral Minnesota including the cities of... Moorhead... Detroit Lakes... Breckenridge... Fergus Falls... And Elbow Lake...

*Winter Weather Advisory* in effect until 6 AM CST Saturday for parts of Southcentral Minnesota including the cities of... Le Sueur... Faribault... Mankato... Waseca... Owatonna... Blue Earth... And Albert Lea...

*Winter Weather Advisory* in effect until 12 PM CST Saturday for a part of Southeast Minnesota including the cities... Rochester... Winona... And Austin.

Low pressure at the surface and aloft combined with a potent H5 trough will continue to track southeast-east across the Upper Midwest through Tomorrow. Snow will continue Tonight over all but Northern parts of Minnesota with snow tapering off from northwest to southeast during the late night hours. The heaviest snow will be confined to the Southern half of Minnesota. Any lingering snow will end in Southeast Minnesota Saturday Morning, with flurries possible over parts of the state through the day Tomorrow. Total snow accumulations by Saturday Morning will range from 2 to 4 inches from Western to Central to Southern Minnesota with isolated higher amounts possible across Southern Minnesota. Snow totals of an inch or less are expected for Eastern Minnesota with little if any accumulation up North. An area of high pressure will build into Minnesota from the west behind this weather system. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found around the state into Tomorrow with lows Tonight in the single digits, teens, and 20s with some subzero readings possible Northwest. Highs Saturday will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s. Winds will be out of the south, east, or north Tonight at 5 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 30 mph over Western-Southern areas of the state. Winds on Saturday will be from the north or northwest at 10 to 25 mph.

Saturday Night:

High pressure will be in control of our weather with partly cloudy skies. Lows will bottom out in the single digits below to above zero with some teens below in the North. Winds Tomorrow Night will be out of the north or west around 20 mph or less.

Extended Forecast:

High pressure will remain in control of our weather through Monday with this ridge of high pressure then pushing off toward our south and east by Tuesday. Mainly dry conditions will continue around the state Sunday and Monday with high temperatures both days mainly in the teens and 20s with a few 30s possible Southwest. Lows Sunday Night and Monday Night will be mainly in the single digits and teens above to below zero. The period from Tuesday into Wednesday, and possibly even Thursday could feature some snow, rain, or mixed precipitation around Minnesota as a pretty strong baroclinic zone develops around the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest while some areas of low pressure track west to east through our area. There is a small chance that one of the lows deepens over the Plains and ejects toward the Upper Great Lakes around the middle of next week, which if it occurred may bring more significant amounts of precipitation to parts of Minnesota...Otherwise will likely see lighter amounts of snow, rain, or mixed precipitation between Tuesday and possibly Thursday.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior:

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy. Light snow or flurries possible with accumulations under one inch. Low zero to 5 above. Wind variable under 12 mph, becoming north at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday... A few flurries possible, otherwise partly sunny. High 15 to 20. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 3 below to 4 above. Wind northwest under 12 mph.

.Sunday... Mostly sunny. High 15 to 20.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 2 below to 4 above.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 20 to 25.

.Monday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 5 to 10.

.Tuesday... Mostly cloudy. Light snow or flurries possible. High 23 to 29. Chance of snow 20%.

5 PM Thompson Hill Observation:

Current Temperature 18 degrees

Dewpoint: -1 degree

Humidity: ENE at 1 mph G 4 mph

Max Temperature Today: 24.3 degrees

Max Humidity Today: 68%

Min Temperature Today: -1.1 degree

Min Humidity Today: 30%

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 26 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 7 degrees

Tim