Saturday, January 31, 2009

1/31/09: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:30 PM CST, Saturday, January 31st, 2009

Surface Analysis at 22z:

Low pressure averaging 982 mb was moving into the Southwest half of Ontario. A warm front attached to this low had lifted into far Northeast Minnesota with a cold front attached to this low just entering far Northwest Minnesota. A prefrontal trough or wind shift line was noted over Central Minnesota. Strong pressure rises of 2-3 mb per 2 hours were occurring This Afternoon behind the trough and cold front and on the southwest side of the deep low off to our north.

The January thaw came in with a vengenance around Minnesota Today as high temperatures soared through the 30s and 40s with even a few locations out West inching close to the 50 degree mark! The 60 and 70 degree temperature contours came as far north as far Southern Nebraska and far Southern Iowa Today. Strong warm advection partially responsible in causing these very warm temps around Minnesota Today was shifting east of the state as of late Today with strong cold advection (aloft) crashing southeast through the state.

Upper Air Analysis at 22z:

Strong shortwave was tracking into Western-Southern Ontario with the flow aloft generally from the west around Minnesota Today. This storm is causing quite a bit of snow Today to the north of the surface low with many locations in Western and Central Ontario back into Manitoba seeing their visibilities drop to fractions of a mile Today in moderate to heavy snow. Very impressive 12 hour H5 height falls of 150-270 meters were spreading east out of the Dakotas and Southern Canada Today in assocation with this powerful storm system. H85 temperatures at 22z ranged from +2 to +6 degrees C across Central, Eastern, and Southern Minnesota to zero to -6 degrees C in Northern and Western Minnesota. Even colder air with H85 temps of -20 degrees C were found over Central Manitoba. Another aspect of this big storm has been the howling winds that have affected Western Minnesota Today. 500 mb winds were up to 90 knots This Afternoon from North Dakota and Northern South Dakota through Western and Central Minnesota with 40-60 knot 850 mb winds across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. These very high winds aloft were able to mix down to the surface Today with 30 to 55 mph winds occurring across much of Northwest and Western Minnesota.

Today's Weather:

Cloudy skies with areas of fog, flurries, and a bit of light freezing drizzle did occur over portions of Minnesota late last night through This Morning as a warm front pushed east-northeast across the state. As of late Today, only far Northeast Minnesota was still seeing areas of fog and low clouds while mostly cloudy skies associated with the cold advection part of this storm were found across Northern and Northwest Minnesota, the rest of the state was still seeing clear to mostly clear skies.

Temperatures around Minnesota at 4 PM ranged from 46 degrees at St. Paul to 36 degrees at Bemidji to 32 degrees at Detroit Lakes to 43 degrees at Grand Rapids to 46 degrees at Hibbing to 39 degrees at Ortonville to 46 degrees at Aitkin to 45 degrees at Moose Lake to 46 degrees at Granite Falls to 47 degrees at Glencoe to 43 degrees at Winona.

Here are some wind speeds around Minnesota at 4 PM with the wind gusts in parenthesis.

Hallock: W at 33 mph (45 mph)

Thief River Falls: W at 32 mph (44 mph)

Flag Island: W at 43 mph (49 mph)

Alexandria: NW at 31 mph (41 mph)

Aitkin: (39 mph)

Brainerd: (35 mph)

Grand Rapids: (35 mph)

International Falls: (36 mph)

Tonight through Sunday Night:

*High Wind Warning* continues until 6 PM CST Tonight for extreme Western Minnesota.

*Wind Advisory* continues until Midnight CST Tonight for Northwest and Western Minnesota.

Strong low pressure will continue on it's eastward track, passing north-northeast of Minnesota during this forecast period. A cold front will push rapidly to the southeast and through all of Minnesota by late This Evening which will then be followed by a secondary cold front which will drop south into Northern Minnesota by Sunday Night. Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies across Minnesota during this period with flurries or a few snow showers possible Tonight, mainly across Northern Minnesota...Then a few snow showers or flurries could occur over all but Western and Southern areas of the state Sunday and Sunday Night. Low temperatures Tonight will be in the teens and 20s with some single digits possible Northwest, but with winds staying up the whole night and the real strong push of cold air remaining aloft, it'll be pretty difficult for readings to fall into the single digits Tonight. Highs on Sunday will be in the teens and 20s with 30s possible Southeast. Lows Sunday Night will be in the single digits and teens with subzero readings possible Northwest. Winds Tonight through Sunday Night will be out of the west, northwest, or southwest. Wind speeds will average 15 to 25 mph, but wind gusts of 25 to 50 mph will continue around the state, especially Tonight.

Extended Forecast:

Colder air will move into Minnesota early next week as the flow aloft once again becomes north to northwest, it doesn't appear that this cold blast will be too significant though, but with H85 temps falling to -18 to -24 degrees C...This could still support nighttime lows into the double digits below zero early next week for parts of Minnesota. A vigorous upper trough will be sliding south and east across Minnesota on Monday...This system could bring some snow showers or flurries to parts of the state at that time, in addition, winds aloft look to veer to the NE for a time late Monday Afternoon or Evening which could lead to a brief period of lake effect snow near Lake Superior in Northeast Minnesota. By Mid-week, temperatures should be moderating a bit as the early week cold blast shifts east of Minnesota thanks to an area of low pressure which will approach the state from the northwest, precipitation looks minimal with this system though. By later next week or next weekend we could see a low pressure system lift out of the Plains while another low moves in from the west-northwest. Right now this system looks pretty moisture starved, but it may be able to tap into a little bit of gulf moisture and cause areas of snow, rain, or freezing rain over parts of Minnesota late next week or next weekend.

High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the single digits and teens with some spots up North possibly staying below zero. Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero.

Forecast for Duluth/Superior:

.Tonight... Windy. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 20 to 25. Wind west at 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 25 to 40 mph possible.

.Sunday... Breezy. Considerable cloudiness with flurries possible. High 28 to 34 with temperatures falling through the 20s. Wind west at 15 to 25 mph.

.Sunday Night... A few flurries or snow showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 10 to 15. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 20%.

.Monday... A few flurries or snow showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 15 to 20. Chance of snow 30%.

.Monday Night... A few flurries possible. Low 2 below to 7 below.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 8 to 13.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 4 below to 3 above.

4 PM Thompson Hill Observation:

Current Temperature: 42.3 degrees

Dewpoint: 24 degrees

Humidity: 48%

Wind: WSW at 14 mph G 24 mph

Max Temperature Today: 42.8 degrees

Max Humidity Today: 98%

Min Temperature Today: 11.5 degrees

Min Humidity Today: 47%

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 20 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 1 degree

Tim

1/31/09: Incredible warmth/powerful storm

Issued at 12:50 PM CST, Saturday, January 31st, 2009

At 1830z a deep area of low pressure averaging 984 mb was centered over Eastern Manitoba with strong darkening noted on water vapor satellite imagery surging southeast across the Northeast half of North Dakota into Northwest Minnesota. This powerful low is causing temperatures to sky rocket over all but Northern and Northeast Minnesota early This Afternoon in addition to this, high winds were spreading through North Dakota and will soon move into Western Minnesota. *Note: 51 mph wind gust recently at Crookston Minnesota per 1 PM observation.

*High Wind Warning* is in effect through 6 PM CST Today for far Western Minnesota with a *Wind Advisory* in effect from 6 PM This Evening until Midnight CST Tonight for this same area. Some cities included in these headlines are... Crookston... Moorhead... Hallock... Warren... And Breckenridge.

*Wind Advisory* is in effect from 3 PM CST Today to Midnight CST Tonight for parts of Western Minnesota. This advisory includes the following cities... Baudette... Red Lake... Bagley... Bemidji... Park Rapids... And Wadena...

Wind speeds in the advisory area will be in the 20 to 40 mph range This Afternoon and Tonight with wind gusts of 40 to around 60 mph possible for several hours in the high wind warning area. Winds this strong could knock down trees and power lines. These strong winds will also cause areas of blowing snow to develop which will limit visibilities to under a mile at times.

Additional wind headlines may be needed for other parts of Minnesota later Today or Tonight as 850 mb winds increase to 40-60 knots as deep low pressure passes north of Minnesota and causes strong winds to occur west and south of the area of low pressure.

At Noon Today, surface temps had risen into the 30s and 40s across all but Northern and Northeast Minnesota where readings were still holding in the 20s thanks to low clouds and areas of fog which was dense in some locations. Some locales out in Westcentral Minnesota were even close to 50 degrees at Noon Today.

850 mb temperatures at 12 PM CST ranged from +2 to +10 degrees across all but Northeast and far Northern Minnesota.

3 hour temperature rises per RUC model have been in the 12 to 16 degree range across much of Minnesota early This Afternoon...Pretty incredible!

Here are some of the lower pressure readings as of late This Morning and early This Afternoon in response to this strong area of low pressure.

Hallock MN: 29.16"

Roseau MN: 29.08"

Warroad MN: 29.09"

Baudette MN: 29.11"

Flag Island MN: 29.06"

Winnipeg Manitoba: 29.06"

The temperature inversion which developed in Duluth This Morning has broken as of Noon Today. Fog and low clouds have burned off, giving way to sunshine as of early Afternoon. Some examples of the inversion...At 9 AM Today, the 925 mb temperature at Duluth was -5 degrees C...850 mb temperature was around zero to +2 degrees C...Surface temperature was -8 degrees C... At 12 PM CST Today, the 925 mb temperature at Duluth was around -4 degrees C...850 mb temperature was +2 degrees C and the surface temperature was -2 degrees C. This wasn't a very strong inversion, so all we needed to do was break the sun out and cause some of the gusty winds aloft to mix down to the surface which we've done.

High temperatures for the rest of Today could really take off in the city as readings to our west and northwest were in the upper 30s to low and mid 40s as of 1 PM Today. 40s were as far east as Grand Rapids, Aitkin, and Brainerd.

High temperature forecast of 25 to 30 degrees for Duluth Today will have to be raised to 35 to 40 degrees, I do believe will top the freezing mark for the first time this month.

Tim

Friday, January 30, 2009

1/30/09: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:12 PM CST, Friday, January 30th, 2009

If the high temperature fails to reach 32 degrees at Duluth on Saturday, then this will go down as just the 15th time since 1874 that a January has failed to produce a temperature of 32 degrees. It's a tricky forecast for the city on Saturday, we have pros and cons at the present time. One thing favorable for temps reaching or even exceeding 32 degrees is that will have a southwest to west surface wind, plus a deep surface low will be passing by to our north putting us in the warm sector for a time. Negatives would include the deep snow cover and the fact that we may be dealing with a temperature inversion with warm air aloft and cooler air trapped at the surface, but if the strong winds aloft can mix down to the surface, then this inversion will break up enough allowing for sunshine to develop which would aid in warming things up and causing the mercury to possibly reach the freezing mark for the first time this month. The last time the high temperature failed to reach 32 degrees in January at Duluth was back in 2004, prior to this was 1994.

Surface Analysis at 20z:

Active storm track across Canada with three lows up in that area Today. One low averaging 1004 mb was centered over the Western half of Quebec Province. A second low averaging 1008 mb was centered over the Northwest half of Ontario Province. A third low averaging 977 mb was moving toward Northern British Columbia. A warm front was attached to the Ontario low with this boundary extending from Eastern Manitoba down through the Eastern Dakotas. A cold front extended from Central Manitoba to Central Saskatchewan. High pressure averaging 1020 mb was centered over the Southern half of Missouri.

Upper Air Analysis at 20z:

Northwest flow aloft was in place over the Upper Midwest Today with a strong upper trough associated with last night's arctic blast around Minnesota moving through the Eastern Great Lakes toward Eastern Canada. An upper trough was moving into Northwest Canada with 12 hour H5 height falls of 90-120 meters This Afternoon...This system was moving toward the east-southeast. Strong warm advection was taking place across the Upper Midwest This Afternoon with 3 hour surface temperatures rising 8-12 degrees around Minnesota, moisture was also increasing as evident by surface dewpoints which have gone up 6 to 12 degrees over the last 3 hours. H85 temperatures at 3 PM ranged from -12 to -16 degrees C from Northern to Eastern Minnesota to -8 degrees C in Southwest and far Western Minnesota. The zero degree C 850 mb contour was still over the Central Dakotas as of Mid-Afternoon, while the real warm air with +4 to +12 degree C 850 mb temps centered over the Western Dakotas through the Northern Rockies. Strong warm advection will persist around Minnesota into early Saturday Afternoon with the zero degree C 850 mb temperature line reaching Northern and Northeast Minnesota, while Western and Southern areas of the state see their temperatures aloft warm to +4 to +6 degrees C on Saturday.

Surface temperatures were in the mid 30s and 40s This Afternoon over the Central and Western Dakotas with 50s around the Rapid City area, the above freezing temperatures extend up into Saskatchewan and parts of Manitoba Today, so this area of warm air, albeit cooler than what is occurring Today will be moving over Minnesota on Saturday since the flow aloft is from the northwest, and soon to be more from the west.

Today's Weather:

Saw partly to mostly cloudy skies around Minnesota Today with the most cloudiness out in Western Minnesota and the most sunshine farther East, this is changing though late Today as clouds are overspreading Northern and Eastern areas of the state. There's been some flurries and light snow at times Today outside of Eastern Minnesota, but none of this has been very significant. High temperatures around Minnesota were in the teens and 20s Today with some 30s showing up in Southwest Minnesota. Winds across the state were out of the south or west Today around 10 to 20 mph.

Temperatures around Minnesota at 3 PM ranged from 10 degrees at Lake Elmo to 14 degrees at Thief River Falls to 14 degrees at Grand Rapids to 16 degrees at Moorhead to 9 degrees at Ely to 28 degrees at Wheaton to 14 degrees at Brainerd to 10 degrees at Mora to 31 degrees at Canby to 27 degrees at Pipestone to 14 degrees at Mankato to 12 degrees at Red Wing.

Tonight:

A warm front will inch east through Western toward Central Minnesota during the night. Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies around Minnesota with the potential for some light snow and flurries over Northern, Central, Southern, and Eastern Minnesota. A bit of light freezing drizzle may also develop Overnight across Northcentral into Eastcentral Minnesota. Little if any accumulation of snow is expected Tonight with any ice accumulations remaining under 0.01", but it may be enough to cause some slick spots early Tomorrow Morning. Temperatures Tonight will remain steady or slowly rise through the night with readings generally in the single digits, teens, and 20s with some areas in Southwest and Western Minnesota possibly staying around 30 degrees. Winds will be out of the south or west around 10 to 20 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

*Blizzard Watch* is in effect from 12 PM til 6 PM CST for far Northwest and far Western Minnesota. Some cities included in the watch are: Crookston... Moorhead... Hallock... And Warren...

A strong area of low pressure between 984-989 mb will track into Southern Ontario Province, passing near the Lake Nipigon area during this forecast period. A warm front and cold front attached to this low will be advancing east-southeast through the state into Saturday Evening. Warmer air will be over the state on Saturday which will then be replaced by a new surge of cold advection which will move in Saturday Night behind the low and cold front. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover the state Saturday and Saturday Night with some flurries possible at times in Northern Minnesota. Patchy light freezing drizzle may also occur Saturday Morning from Northcentral through Eastcentral Minnesota. High temperatures on Saturday will rise into the 20s and 30s with 40s possible in Southwest Minnesota. Lows Saturday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s. Winds will shift from the south and west to the north and west during this forecast period. 850 mb winds are forecast to increase to 35 to 55 knots across much of Minnesota on the west and south sides of the deep low off to our north, some of these higher wind speeds should make it down to the surface with 15 to 35 mph winds expected over most of Minnesota, wind gusts could reach 35 to 50 mph though over Western areas of the state. If the winds increase this much, then ground blizzard conditions could develop for a time Saturday over far Western Minnesota. The current snow pack is pretty crusty though, so it will take some strong winds to loosen up the top layer of snow cover.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will be passing off to the northeast of Minnesota to close out the weekend while a 500 mb trough swoops east-southeast into the Upper Midwest Sunday and Monday, this trough will deepen as it passes through our area. This upper trough combined with a potential storm along the East Coast early next week will help to pull another batch of arctic air currently seen over Northern and Eastern Alaska through the Yukon and Northwest Territories in Canada down into Minnesota from Monday through early Wednesday the way it looks now. Temperatures in the areas where the arctic air has been building the last few days have been down into the 30s, 40s, and even 50s below zero during the night and Morning hours, but as this arctic surge drops southeast it should modify somewhat, but it still looks plenty cold around Minnesota early next week. The Sunday through Tuesday period looks pretty dry around Minnesota, but there could be some flurries or snow showers passing through from time to time. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s with lows Sunday Night in the single digits and teens below to above zero. Highs Monday will be in the single digits and teens with some spots in the North possibly staying below zero. Lows Monday Night will fall into the single digits, teens, and 20s below with some 30s below possible over parts of the North. Again this next cold surge should linger into Wednesday Morning, then temperatures should start to moderate the remainder of next week possibly into next weekend. GFS model continues to show a potential weather system possibly affecting Minnesota's weather later next week or next weekend with another system possible early the following week. Both systems could bring some snow, ice, or even some rain to parts of the state, but again it's way too early to nail down the exact timing, strength, and tracks of these lows.

Forecast for Duluth/Superior:

.Tonight... Becoming mostly cloudy. Snow flurries or patchy light freezing drizzle possible late. Low 5 to 10 with temperatures steady or slowly rising Overnight. Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday... Breezy. Patchy light freezing drizzle possible early. Mostly cloudy during the Morning, then becoming partly sunny. High 25 to 30. Wind southwest at 15 to 25 mph, becoming west.

.Saturday Night... Breezy. Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 10 to 15. Wind west to northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Sunday... Flurries possible. Mostly cloudy. High 20 to 25.

.Sunday Night... Flurries possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 4 below to 3 above.

.Monday... Flurries possible. Partly sunny. High 5 to 10.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 7 below to 14 below.

4 PM Thompson Hill Observation:

Current Temperature: 10.6 degrees

Dewpoint: -3 degrees

Humidity: 52%

Wind: SW at 9 mph G 14 mph

Max Temperature Today: 11.9 degrees

Max Humidity Today: 84%

Min Temperature Today: -13.3 degrees

Min Humidity Today: 47%

Normal High Temperature Today 20 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today zero degrees

Tim

1/30/09: Low Temperatures

Issued at 1:29 PM CST, Friday, Janaury 30th, 2009

Another shot of arctic air sent low temperatures falling well below zero over parts of the area. Here are some low temperatures that were reported earlier Today, January 30th, 2009.

Duluth MN: -12 degrees

International Falls MN: -33 degrees

Brainerd MN: -21 degrees

Hibbing MN: -25 degrees

Silver Bay MN: -20 degrees

Ely MN: -27 degrees

Crane Lake MN: -27 degrees

Cook MN: -29 degrees

Bigfork MN: -29 degrees

Pine River MN: -26 degrees

Longville MN: -24 degrees

Superior WI: -11 degrees

Sky Harbor MN: -8 degrees

Embarrass MN: -34 degrees

3 miles West of Floodwood MN: -24 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: -30 degrees

Northome MN: -29 degrees

Alexandria MN: -13 degrees

St. Cloud MN: -16 degrees

Benson MN: -17 degrees

Little Falls MN: -18 degrees

Mora MN: -18 degrees

Princeton MN: -18 degrees

Park Rapids MN: -23 degrees

Wadena MN: -20 degrees

Bemidji MN: -25 degrees

Detroit Lakes MN: -22 degrees

Fosston MN: -22 degrees

Warroad MN: -26 degrees

Tim

Thursday, January 29, 2009

1/29/09: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:24 PM CST, Thursday, January 29th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 2008, the high temperature reached 35 degrees at Duluth Minnesota, but a new blast of arctic air sent the low temperature plummeting to 19 degrees below zero on the same day. That's a difference of 54 degrees in 24 hours!

Surface Analysis at 22z:

Low pressure averaging 1004 mb was centered over Eastern Ontario with high pressure averaging 1018 mb centered over Southern Manitoba.

Upper Air Analysis at 22z:

Northwest flow aloft has amplified a bit Today around the Upper Midwest as a new surge of arctic air spreads south into Minnesota behind the weak system that moved through last night. An upper level trough was seen on water vapor satellite imagery progressing east across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes Today with a few disturbances rotating south-southeast along and behind this upper trough. A 120-140 knot jet max was found from Central Saskatchewan Province through Eastern Montana and the Western Dakotas Today on the backside of this upper trough. 850 mb temperatures around Minnesota at 4 PM Today ranged from -18 degrees C across Northern Minnesota to -12 to -14 degrees C in Southern Minnesota. The coldest air with this latest arctic blast was found north-northeast of Minnesota Today where the lowest 500 mb heights were found and the coldest 850 mb temps of -20 to -22 degrees C were located.

Today's Weather:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies covered Minnesota Today with a few light snow showers and flurries falling at times over parts of the state. Snow accumulations from Wednesday Afternoon through This Morning were generally an inch or less, but the Arrowhead of Minnesota picked up around two inches of snow thanks to some lake effect which occurred for a time on Wednesday. High temperatures around Minnesota were in the single digits below to above zero with teens and 20s farther South. Winds across the state were out of the north or west Today at 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts over Western and Southern Minnesota. Afternoon wind chills were mostly in the single digits below to above zero with teens and even some 20s below farther North.

Temperatures at 4 PM around Minnesota ranged from 14 degrees at South St. Paul to -2 degrees at Hallock to -2 degrees at Detroit Lakes to 1 degree at International Falls to 7 degrees at Hibbing to 1 degree at Wadena to 10 degrees at Aitkin to 11 degrees at Rush City to 19 degrees at Pipestone to 18 degrees at St. James to 14 degrees at Dodge Center.

Tonight:

High pressure will be in control of Minnesota's weather. Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies with any flurries ending during the Evening. Lows will be on the cold side with readings in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero with some locations staying on the positive side of zero in Southwest Minnesota. Winds will be out of the west or northwest around 15 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

Low pressure will tracking to the north-northeast of Minnesota during this period while a warm front moves into Minnesota from the west by Friday Night. Could see some flurries or some patchy light freezing drizzle develop over parts of Minnesota during this period as strong warm advection pattern develops. Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies Friday and Friday Night with highs in the single digits, teens, and 20s with nearly steady or slowly rising temperatures Friday Night. Winds during this period will shift to the south and southwest around 10 to 25 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Strong area of low pressure around 988 mb will be tracking into Central Canada this weekend. A push of warmer air will occur south of this low and ahead of a cold front on Saturday with 850 mb temps climbing to between +2 and +6 degrees C with the warmest air the farther South you go. Problem with getting this warm air above us to mix down to the surface will be the possibility for cloud-cover which could cause an inversion to develop allowing the warmest air to stay aloft, the best potential to see temperatures rise above 32 degrees on Saturday seems to be over Southwest and possibly Westcentral Minnesota, the rest of Minnesota should see highs mainly in the 20s to near 30 degrees. The period from Saturday Night through Monday will see an upper level trough move in from the west-northwest, this upper trough will deepen and cause a more amplified upper air pattern to develop as we head into the early to possibly mid part of next week. What will also help to amplify the pattern will be a potential bomb of a storm that could take shape and ride northeast along the Appalachins or slightly farther east from there from Monday through Wednesday of next week, this storm has the possibility of being a major system with a severe winter storm and possible blizzard to the west and northwest of the low track with flooding rains along and ahead of the track. This storm will stay well to the east of Minnesota, but it will still have some influence on our local weather since it will help to bring down another shot of arctic air early next week.

Low temperatures around Minnesota will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s Saturday Night with high temps on Sunday holding pretty steady from Saturday's low temperatures. Lows Sunday Night will be in the single digits below to above zero with some teens farther South.

Low temperatures Monday Night and Tuesday Night of next week could drop back into the teens, 20s, and possibly even some 30s below zero over portions of Minnesota based off the latest GFS model run This Afternoon...The Euro model is slightly warmer, but still supports another cold push early next week.

Now, as I stated yesterday the weather pattern may change after the middle of next week once that monster storm along the East Coast moves out, this new pattern may lead to more active weather around the Upper Midwest for early and mid February, but this Winter has seen a very reluctant N/NW upper level flow pattern that just doesn't wanna leave for long periods of time, this is reflected by the 18z GFS model run Today which shows a powerful 1064 mb arctic high building south out of the Yukon region and giving Minnesota another dose of arctic air toward the second week of February.

Forecast for Duluth/Superior:

.Tonight... Clear to partly cloudy. Low 4 below to 11 below. Wind northwest around 15 mph.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 10 to 15. Wind becoming southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night... A few flurries possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 5 to 10 with slowly rising temperatures. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. High 23 to 28.

.Saturday Night... Flurries possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 10 to 15.

.Sunday... Flurries possible. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 15 to 20.

.Sunday Night... Flurries possible. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 4 below to 3 above.

4 PM Thompson Hill Observation:

Current Temperature: 9.3 degrees

Dewpoint: -3 degrees

Humidity: 56%

Wind: WSW at 7 mph G12 mph

Max Temperature Today: 13.3 degrees

Max Humidity Today: 89%

Min Temperature Today: 9.3 degrees through 5 PM Today.

Min Humidity Today: 51%

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 20 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow zero degrees

Tim

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

1/28/09: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:48 PM CST, Wednesday, January 28th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date one year ago, the high temperature reached 41 degrees at Duluth Minnesota.

Surface Analysis at 22z:

Low pressure averaging 1002 mb was centered over Western Ontario Province. A warm front attached to this low was over Western Minnesota with a cold front over Northern North Dakota.

Upper Air Analysis at 22z:

Northwest flow aloft was evident on water vapor satellite imagery around the Upper Midwest Today with three disturbances passing east-southeast across the region. Disturbance number one was tracking through the Southern half of Minnesota attm. Disturbance number two was moving through Eastern North Dakota into Northwest Minnesota attm. Disturbance number three was tracking through Western Ontario and Southern Manitoba. Each one of these disturbances has been generating areas of light snow and flurries Today over portions of North Dakota and Minnesota with visibilities falling to around one mile at times, snowfall amounts have been extremely light though. H85 temperatures around Minnesota at 4 PM Today ranged from -12 degrees C in Northeast and far Northwest Minnesota to -6 degrees C in Southwest Minnesota with -8 to -10 degree C temperatures in between.

Today's Weather:

Skies around Minnesota were partly sunny to mostly cloudy Today with areas of light snow and flurries falling at times over parts of the state. There was also some lake effect snow along the North Shore of Lake Superior thanks to a southerly flow and cold temperatures in place. Visibilities around the Grand Marais area have dropped to 3/4 to one mile at times Today in the lake effect snow. High temperatures around Minnesota were in the teens and 20s Today with a few spots in Southwest Minnesota in the low 30s. Winds across the state were out of the south or west Today around 20 mph or less.

Temperatures around Minnesota at 5 PM ranged from 16 degrees at St. Paul to 18 degrees at Roseau to 12 degrees at Grand Rapids to 13 degrees at Duluth to 28 degrees at Wheaton to 28 degrees at Ortonville to 9 degrees at Pine River to 14 degrees at Mora to 31 degrees at Canby to 12 degrees at Owatonna to 9 degrees at Rochester.

Tonight through Thursday Night:

Low pressure will be passing to the north/northeast of Minnesota through Thursday while an upper level trough and a couple disturbances track southeast through our area during this forecast period. Areas of light snow and flurries will persist around parts of Minnesota into Thursday with mainly dry conditions expected for Thursday Night. Snow amounts will only add up to a few tenths to possibly an inch during the next 24 hours. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover the state this period with lows Tonight in the single digits, teens, and 20s with some subzero readings possible Northwest. Highs Thursday will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s with lows Thursday Night in the single digits below to above zero with teens and 20s below possible over North and East areas of the state as a brief shot of colder air pushes into Minnesota behind the exiting upper trough and low. Winds Tonight and Thursday Night will be out of the southwest, west, or northwest with northwest winds on Thursday. Wind speeds will generally range from 10 to 20 mph, but some higher gusts will occur Tonight and Thursday.

Extended Forecast:

An area of low pressure will pass off well to the north of Minnesota Friday and early Saturday with a stronger low around 988 mb heading east across Central Canada this weekend. A warm front and cold front attached to this second low will be sweeping across Minnesota from Friday Afternoon into Saturday Night. Could see some flurries over parts of Minnesota in the strong warm advection regime Friday through Saturday Morning, then some more flurries or snow showers could occur Saturday Night and Sunday over parts of Minnesota as a virgorous upper level trough heads east out of the Northern Rockies. High temperatures around Minnesota will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s on Friday with lows Friday Night holding fairly steady from Friday's high temperatures. Highs on Saturday will be in the 20s and 30s with some 40s possible Southwest. Lows Saturday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s.

Still looks like H85 temperatures will spike into the +2 to +8 degree C range over most of Minnesota for a time on Saturday, and if enough of this warm air can make it to the surface, then high temps over most of Minnesota will make it to at or above 32 degrees, the usual difficulty in getting this warm air down to the surface this time of year is the thick snow pack that's in place around Minnesota, but surface winds look to be in a favorable W/SW direction on Saturday, so if we can stay away from low cloud development, then high temps on Saturday could soar...If not, then temps will likely stay below 32 degrees.

-Note: The 12z Global (GEM) forecast model from Today has the Friday and early Saturday low on a more southward track compared to the other models, if this happens...Then cold advection could be stronger around Minnesota most of Saturday with the next strong low then causing warmer temperatures from late Saturday through Sunday Morning, this is the only model hinting at this solution at the moment, but it bears watching.

Looking further out into the future...The early to mid part of next week could feature a monster storm for the East Coast while a surge of arctic air drops down behind this possible storm into the Upper Midwest, doesn't appear that this arctic air surge will be any worse than the two outbreaks we had to deal with in January, but it still could get pretty cold for a time early next week around Minnesota. This big storm for the East Coast could then lead to a big shift in the overall weather pattern for the Upper Midwest as we head into the early and middle parts of February as we could finally see the cold air shift more into Northwest Canada/Alaska and possibly the Western U.S., which could eventually lead to a more active storm track for the Upper Mississippi Valley. But, the way this Winter has been going so far, chances of this actually occurring seem pretty low, since the NWRLY flow and arctic air has been having a very difficult time in leaving Minnesota.

Locally for Duluth/Superior:

.Tonight... Snow showers and flurries. Accumulations under an inch. Mostly cloudy. Low zero to 5 above. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph, becoming northwest after Midnight.

.Thursday... A few flurries possible. Partly sunny. High 11 to 16. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 6 below to 13 below.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 10 to 15.

.Friday Night... A few flurries possible. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 5 to 10 with slowly rising temperatures.

.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. High 26 to 31.

.Saturday Night... Flurries possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 10 to 15.

5 PM Thompson Hill Observation:

Current Temperature: 13.3 degrees

Dewpoint: 6 degrees

Humidity: 74%

Wind: SW at 6 mph G 12 mph

Max Temperature Today: 16 degrees

Max Humidity Today: 89%

Min Temperature Today: -4.9 degrees

Min Humidity Today: 63%

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 20 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow zero degrees

Tim

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

1/27/09: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:54 PM CST, Tuesday, January 27th, 2009

Surface Analysis at 22z:

High pressure averaging 1026 mb was centered over Western Iowa with low pressure averaging 1000 mb moving into Western Saskatchewan Province.

Upper Air Analysis at 22z:

Afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows a positively tilted trough with an axis from the Central Plains toward Minnesota tracking south/east. Powerful jet stream winds of 130-170 knots were found per RUC model out ahead of this trough from Texas to Southern Wisconsin into the Northeast U.S. To our northwest, there are two systems of interest for our area, the first one was heading toward Southern Manitoba while the latter system was tracking through British Columbia on it's way into Alberta Province. 12 hour H5 height falls up to 120 meters were found Today with the system over Northwest Canada. H85 temperatures at 22z ranged from -12 degrees C in Northwest Minnesota to -14 to -16 degrees C over the rest of Minnesota.

Today's Weather:

Partly cloudy to sunny skies covered Minnesota Today with high temperatures mostly in the single digits and teens. Winds were out of the south or west around 10 to 20 mph.

Temperatures around Minnesota at 5 PM ranged from 11 degrees at St. Paul to -6 degrees at Hallock to 4 degrees at International Falls to 10 degrees at Eveleth to zero degrees at Wadena to 5 degrees at Aitkin to 7 degrees at Mora to 16 degrees at Granite Falls to 15 degrees at Glencoe to 7 degrees at Dodge Center.

Tonight through Wednesday Night:

Arctic high pressure will finally move off to the southeast of Minnesota during this forecast period which will make way for a clipper system which will approach Minnesota from the northwest. Clear to partly cloudy skies will prevail around the state Tonight with clouds increasing later in the night over Western areas of the state. Look for partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies across Minnesota on Wednesday with partly to mostly cloudy skies expected Wednesday Night. Areas of snow showers and flurries will likely develop around parts of Minnesota Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with a few tenths to as much as an inch of new snow possible by late Wednesday Night over Western, Central, and Eastern areas of the state. Low temperatures Tonight will be in the single digits and teens below to above zero with some 20s below possible Northeast. Highs Wednesday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Wednesday Night in the single digits, teens, and 20s. Winds Tonight and Wednesday will be out of the south or west around 10 to 20 mph with west, southwest, or northwest winds expected Tomorrow Night at 10 to 25 mph with some higher gusts possible over Western/Southern areas of the state.

Extended Forecast:

A brief shot of colder air with H85 temps falling to -14 to around -20 degrees C will push into Minnesota Thursday into early Friday behind the low pressure system that's moving through our area Wednesday and Wednesday Night. A couple disturbances will continue to drop SE across Minnesota Thursday and Thursday Night and those systems could bring some additional flurries or snow showers to parts of Minnesota during that time. Another clipper low, this one taking a much farther north track than the one on Wednesday could bring a few flurries to Northern areas of Minnesota Friday and Friday Night. Then, over the weekend look for a strong area of low pressure (sub 990 mb) to pass through Central Canada with a warm front and cold front attached to this low passing through the Upper Midwest. The bulk of the lift and energy associated with this system will pass north-northeast of Minnesota, but a vigorous upper level trough swinging E/SE out of the Northern Rockies into Minnesota could bring a few snow showers or flurries to parts of Minnesota from Saturday Night through Sunday. The bigger issue with the weekend's weather could be the gusty winds that may develop around Minnesota, 850 mb winds are forecast to increase to 30 to around 55 knots, and some of this could mix down to the surface which could make for a pretty windy weekend around parts of Minnesota. High temperatures on Friday will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s with lows Friday Night in the teens West and South with single digits below to above zero elsewhere. Temperatures aloft are forecast to spike into the +4 to +8 degree C range over most of Minnesota on Saturday which could lead to high temperatures rising into the 30s for most areas of the state, 40s could even occur in Southwest Minnesota, the problem is that we have a deep snow pack over all of Minnesota, so much of this warming may not make it all the way to the surface, if that happens...then high temps would hold in the 20s and 30s around the state. Lows Saturday Night will be in the teens and 20s.

Forecast for Duluth/Superior:

.Tonight... Mostly Clear. Low 4 below to 9 below. Wind southwest around 12 mph.

.Wednesday... Becoming mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible later in the day. High 13 to 18. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 30%.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible. Total event accumulations under an inch. Low zero to 5 above. Wind southwest, becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 30%.

.Thursday... A few flurries possible. Partly sunny. High 11 to 16.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 6 below to 13 below.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 10 to 15.

.Friday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 5 to 10.

5 PM Thompson Hill Observation:

Current Temperature: 7.2 degrees

Dewpoint: -12 degrees

Humidity: 39%

Wind: SSW at 6 mph G 10 mph

Max Temperature Today: 12.9 degrees

Max Humidity Today: 77%

Min Temperature Today: -13 degrees

Min Humidity Today: 36%

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 19 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow zero degrees

Tim

1/27/09: Tuesday's Low Temperatures

Issued at 4:48 PM CST, Tuesday, January 27th, 2009

Here are some low temperatures that were reported around the area earlier Today, Tuesday, January 27th, 2009.

Duluth MN: -13 degrees

International Falls MN: -24 degrees

Hibbing MN: -30 degrees

Ely MN: -29 degrees

Crane Lake MN: -27 degrees

Cook MN: -29 degrees

Longville MN: -26 degrees

Pine River MN: -27 degrees

Cass Lake MN: -27 degrees

Embarrass MN: -37 degrees

3 miles West of Floodwood MN: -24 degrees

Hinckley MN: -27 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: -32 degrees

Littlefork MN: -25 degrees

Northome MN: -31 degrees

Little Falls MN: -22 degrees

Mora MN: -20 degrees

Staples MN: -20 degrees

Milaca MN: -26 degrees

Park Rapids MN: -24 degrees

Bemidji MN: -23 degrees

Roseau MN: -20 degrees

Hallock MN: -20 degrees

Tim

Monday, January 26, 2009

1/26/09: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:07 PM CST, Monday, January 26th, 2009



Weather History:



On this date in 2004, 0.78" of precipitation and 18.2" of snow fell at Duluth Minnesota.



Weather Tidbits:



As of Today's date, the entire Western portion of Lake Superior has frozen over based on satellite imagery. This was about the sametime that Western Lake Superior frozed over back in 1994. While in 1977, Western Lake Superior frozed over about a week earlier. Both 1994 and 1977 were memorable winters around the Great Lakes.



Average Temperature at Duluth Minnesota from December 27th through January 25th has been zero degrees and this has been 7 to 8 degrees below what the mean temperature should be during this time period.



Precipitation Total at Duluth Minnesota from December 27th through January 25th has been 0.50" which is just 25-50% of average for this time period.



In other words, it's been very cold and extremely dry for the most part since late December.



Surface Analysis at 21z:



Arctic high pressure ridge averaging 1034 mb was centered to the west and southwest of Minnesota.



Upper Air Analysis at 21z:



Northwest flow aloft was in place around the Upper Midwest Today while a positive tilted trough heads east through the Rockies, strong jet stream winds of 120-150 knots were present on the south and east sides of this trough Today per RUC model. A nice plume of subtropical moisture was evident on water vapor satillite imagery This Afternoon from the Baja region northeast through Texas up through the Midwest and toward the Ohio Valley region to the east of this trough. The stage is being set for a significant ice storm and winter storm for portions of the Southern Plains through Missouri/Arkansas, and points northeast from there through mid-week. This storm will have no impact on Minnesota's weather since were being influenced big time by a northwest flow aloft. H5 heights have come up a bit around Minnesota over the past 24 hours per 12z RUC model analysis which indicates that this latest round of arctic is beginning to ease up slightly. H85 temperatures around Minnesota at 21z ranged from -14 to -16 degrees C with the coldest air found in Eastern Canada with -22 to -26 degree C 850 mb temperatures This Afternoon.



Today's Weather:



Mostly cloudy skies were found across the South half of Minnesota Today with some flurries and areas of light snow at times, accumulations were extremely light though. Sunshine prevailed for the remainder of Minnesota. High temperatures were in the single digits below to above zero with a few locations climbing into the low teens. Winds across the state were out of the west, southwest, or northwest around 15 mph or less Today.



4 PM Temperatures around Minnesota ranged from 5 degrees at Blaine to -6 degrees at Warroad to -9 degrees at Fosston to 2 degrees at International Falls to 3 degrees at Eveleth to -6 degrees at Alexandria to -8 degrees at Fergus Falls to 3 degrees at Aitkin to 9 degrees at Moose Lake to 11 degrees at Granite Falls to 10 degrees at Waseca to 12 degrees at Winona.



Tonight through Tuesday Night:



*Wind Chill Advisory* has been extended through Tuesday Morning for Northern and parts of Western Minnesota.



Arctic high pressure will remain in control of our weather during this forecast period. Look for mostly cloudy skies over the South Tonight and Tomorrow with some flurries or areas of very light snow possible at times. The remainder of Minnesota will have clear to partly cloudy skies through Tuesday. By Tuesday Night, look for partly to mostly cloudy skies statewide with some snow showers or flurries spreading toward Western Minnesota later in the night as a clipper low approaches from the northwest. Lows Tonight will be in the single digits below to above zero with teens, 20s, and even some 30s below possible outside of Southern Minnesota. Highs Tuesday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Tuesday Night in the single digits and teens below to above zero. Winds through Tuesday Night will be out of the west, northwest, or southwest around 20 mph or less.



Extended Forecast:



Low pressure will pass off to the north/east of Minnesota from Wednesday into Thursday, this low combined with a cold front which will drop southeast through the state will go on to produce some snow showers and flurries around Minnesota from Wednesday into early Thursday. Snow amounts will be light with most locations only picking up a dusting to perhaps an inch of new snow. A brief shot of arctic air will follow this clipper for Thursday and early Friday, then a stronger clipper will pass by to our north over the weekend which will set the stage for some gusty winds south of this low over Minnesota along with milder temperatures ahead of the low with colder temps developing behind the low and cold front. The greatest threat for snow with this second clipper is forecast to be north of Minnesota based on the latest storm track with only flurries and possibly a few snow showers falling over parts of Minnesota from late Friday through the weekend.



All in all the northwesterly flow aloft looks to prevail around the Upper Midwest into the weekend while a ridge of high pressure re-develops just off the U.S. West Coast after mid-week. This will mean little chance for any big weather systems affecting our area at least through the weekend.



Forecast for Duluth/Superior:



*Wind Chill Advisory* now in effect through 10 AM CST Tuesday...



.Tonight... Bitterly cold with dangerous wind chills. Mostly clear. Low 14 below to 21 below. Wind west under 15 mph. Wind chills ranging from 25 below to around 40 below.



.Tuesday... Mostly sunny. High 3 to 9. Wind west to southwest around 15 mph.



.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 3 below to 8 below. Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.



.Wednesday... Mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible. Accumulations under an inch. High 13 to 18. Chance of snow 30%.



.Wednesday Night... Flurries possible. Mostly cloudy. Low zero to 5 above.



.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 11 to 16.



.Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 6 below to 13 below.



4 PM Thompson Hill Observation:



Current Temperature: 4.7 degrees



Dewpoint: -11 degrees



Humidity: 46%



Wind: WSW at 7 mph G 12 mph



Max Temperature Today: 6.5 degrees



Max Humidity Today: 81%



Min Temperature Today: -16.2 degrees



Min Humidity Today: 45%



Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 19 degrees



Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow -1 degree



Tim

1/26/09: Wind Chill Advisory Information

Issued at 2:14 PM CST, Monday, January 26th, 2009

*Wind Chill Advisory* has been extended until 10 AM CST Tuesday for parts of Northeast Minnesota... Counties in the Duluth area that are included in the advisory are:

Koochiching MN... Itasca MN... Northern Cass MN... Northern Aitkin MN... Carlton MN... St. Louis MN... Lake MN... And Cook MN...

Some cities included in the advisory are:

International Falls MN... Bigfork MN... Grand Rapids MN... Walker MN... Hill City MN... Moose Lake MN... Cloquet MN... Esko MN... Duluth MN... Cotton MN... Hibbing MN... Virginia MN... Ely MN... Two Harbors MN... Finland MN... Silver Bay MN... And Grand Marais MN...

Temperatures as of Mid-Afternoon had climbed into the single digits below to above zero in the advisory area with wind speeds generally around 15 mph or less with wind chills mostly in the single digits and teens below zero.

As temperatures fall back into the teens and 20s below zero Tonight look for wind chills to drop into the 25 below to 40 below range from This Evening through Tuesday Morning in the advisory area.

Exposed skin could freeze in under 15 minutes in these conditions. Take proper precautions if you will be outdoors for any period of time while the advisory is in effect.

Tim

1/26/09: Monday's Low Temperatures

Issued at 2:09 PM CST, Monday, January 26th, 2009

Here are some low temperatures that were reported around the area from earlier Today, Monday, January 26th, 2009.

Duluth MN: -15 degrees

International Falls MN: -26 degrees

Brainerd MN: -23 degrees

Hibbing MN: -26 degrees

Sky Harbor MN: -15 degrees

Ely MN: -26 degrees

Crane Lake MN: -27 degrees

Eveleth MN: -26 degrees

Bigfork MN: -33 degrees

Longville MN: -31 degrees

Pine River MN: -33 degrees

Moose Lake MN: -26 degrees

Superior WI: -17 degrees

Embarrass MN: -36 degrees

Hinckley MN: -27 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: -33 degrees

Littlefork MN: -24 degrees

Bemidji MN: -22 degrees

Fosston MN: -27 degrees

Hallock MN: -27 degrees

Roseau MN: -20 degrees

Warroad MN: -20 degrees

Crookston MN: -26 degrees

Tim

Sunday, January 25, 2009

1/25/09: Sunday's Low Temperatures

Issued at 5:54 PM CST, Sunday, January 25th, 2009

Here are some low temperatures that were recorded around the area earlier Today, Sunday, January 25th, 2009.

Duluth MN: -17 degrees

International Falls MN: -23 degrees

Hibbing MN: -25 degrees

Sky Harbor MN: -11 degrees

Ely MN: -24 degrees

Crane Lake MN: -29 degrees

Cook MN: -26 degrees

Longville MN: -26 degrees

Superior WI: -13 degrees

Embarrass MN: -35 degrees

3 miles West of Floodwood MN: -22 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: -30 degrees

Long Prairie MN: -20 degrees

Milaca MN: -20 degrees

Rice MN: -22 degrees

Baudette MN: -23 degrees

Park Rapids MN: -20 degrees

Thief River Falls MN: -20 degrees

Wadena MN: -20 degrees

Fosston MN: -22 degrees

Hallock MN: -26 degrees

Tim

1/25/09: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:32 PM CST, Sunday, January 25th, 2009

Surface Analysis at 23z:

Arctic high pressure ridge averaging 1030-1032 mb was centered to the west and southwest of Minnesota.

Upper Air Analysis at 23z:

Northwest flow aloft was evident around the Upper Midwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery with an upper level trough and area of low pressure heading east through Southern Idaho, Nevada, and Utah. Polar vortex remained over the Hudson Bay/Northwest Ontario/Northeast Manitoba area for the third day in a row now. H85 temperatures around Minnesota at 23z ranged from -16 to -20 degrees C around Minnesota with the coldest air with minus 24 to minues 32 degree C 850 mb temps located to the northeast of Minnesota.

Today's Weather:

Another cold day around the state with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies covering Southern areas with more sunshine the farther north you were. Highs Today were in the single digits below to above zero with some teens South. Winds across the state were out of the west, northwest, or southwest Today around 20 mph or less.

5 PM temperatures around Minnesota ranged from 8 degrees at St. Paul to -11 degrees at Fosston to -6 degrees at International Falls to -2 degrees at Hibbing to -8 degrees at Fergus Falls to -6 degrees at Pine River to 9 degrees at Windom to 9 degrees at Fairmont to 12 degrees at Winona.

Tonight through Monday Night:

*Wind Chill Advisory* remains in effect through Noon CST Monday for the Northern half of Minnesota into Western Minnesota.

Arctic high pressure will remain in control of our weather through this forecast period. Look for clear to partly cloudy skies with more clouds at times across the South where some snow flurries could fall from time to time. Lows Tonight and Monday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below with some 30s below possible North. Highs Monday will be in the single digits below to above zero with some teens possible South. Winds during this period will be out of the west, northwest, or southwest around 20 mph or less.

Extended Forecast:

Flow aloft looks to remain out of the northwest around the Upper Midwest through next weekend. Some clipper systems will begin to impact our weather on occasion from mid-week into next weekend, but right now the tracks of these systems are unfavorable for them to produce anything more than areas of snow showers and flurries with just minor accumulations expected the way it looks now. One such clipper looks to move through about Wednesday with another one expected toward Saturday. High temperatures around Minnesota will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s for Tuesday and Wednesday with lows Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night in the single digits below to above zero with some teens for some locations.

Locally for Duluth/Superior:

*Wind Chill Advisory* through Noon CST Monday...

.Tonight... Bitterly cold with dangerous wind chills. Mostly clear. Low 14 below to 21 below. Wind west around 15 mph. Wind chills ranging from 25 below to 40 below.

.Monday... Very cold. Mostly sunny. High zero to 8 above. Wind west around 15 mph. Wind chills ranging from 25 below to 40 below during the Morning.

.Monday Night... Frigid... Mostly clear. Low 14 below to 21 below. Wind west under 12 mph.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 5 to 10.

.Tuesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low zero to 5 above.

.Wednesday... Flurries possible. High 13 to 18.

.Wednesday Night... Flurries possible. Low zero to 5 above.

5 PM Thompson Hill Observation:

Current Temperature: -2 degrees

Dewpoint: -16 degrees

Humidity: 50%

Wind: WSW at 11 mph G 14 mph

Max Temperature Today: 3.8 degrees

Max Humidity Today: 79%

Min Temperature Today: -14.6 degrees

Min Humidity Today: 46%

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 19 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow -1 degree

Tim

Saturday, January 24, 2009

1/24/09: *Wind Chill Advisory*

Issued at 4:14 PM CST, Saturday, January 24th, 2009

*Wind Chill Advisory* is in effect for all of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin through 12 PM CST Monday.

Counties in the Duluth area that are included in the advisory are:

Koochiching MN... Itasca MN... Cass MN... Crow Wing MN... Aitkin MN... Pine MN... Carlton MN... St. Louis MN... Lake MN... Cook MN... Douglas WI... Bayfield WI... Ashland WI... Iron WI... Burnett WI... Washburn WI... Sawyer WI... And Price WI...

Some cities included in the advisory are:

International Falls MN... Grand Rapids MN... Walker MN... Brainerd MN... Aitkin MN... Pine City MN... Hinckley MN... Moose Lake MN... Esko MN... Cloquet MN... Duluth MN... Cotton MN... Hibbing MN... Ely MN... Virginia MN... Two Harbors MN... Finland MN... Silver Bay MN... Grand Marais MN... Superior WI... Port Wing WI... Solon Springs WI... Bayfield WI... Ashland WI... Hurley WI... Siren WI... Grantsburg WI... Spooner WI... Hayward WI... And Park Falls WI...

Arctic air will remain over the area through Monday. Nighttime low temperatures will range from 10 below to 30 below with daytime highs Sunday and Monday ranging from around 5 below to 10 above. The coldest temperatures will likely occur around and to the west and north of the Iron Range in Minnesota and over interior portions of Northwest Wisconsin.

Wind speeds of 10 to 20 mph will be common around the area through Monday with higher gusts possible from time to time.

Wind chills will lower to between 25 below to as low as 45 below zero between the hours of 8 PM and 9 AM, with wind chills of 10 below to 25 below zero expected between the hours of 9 AM and 8 PM.

Exposed skin could freeze within 10 to 15 minutes when wind chills reach 30 below. Take proper precautions if you plan on being outside for any period of time while this advisory is in effect.

Tim

1/24/09: Saturday's Weather Report



Issued at 3:23 PM CST, Saturday, January 24th, 2009



Surface Analysis at 21z:



Ridge of arctic high pressure averaging 1034-1042 mb extended from Eastern Nebraska to the Eastern Alberta/Western Saskatchewan area while a few areas of low pressure averaging 1012-1014 mb were found over the Central Rockies.



Upper Air Analysis at 21z:



Northwest flow aloft was in place around the Upper Midwest Today with a large polar vortex spinning around over Hudson Bay. An H3 jet streak of 120-130 knots was in place over Northern and Central Minnesota This Afternoon per RUC model analysis. 850 mb temperatures around Minnesota at 3 PM Today ranged from -18 to -20 degrees C, while -24 to -30 degree C 850 mb temps cover areas north and northeast of Minnesota Today.



Today's Weather:




Mostly sunny to sunny skies covered Minnesota with high temperatures in the single digits below to above zero with some low teens along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Winds were out of the west, southwest, or northwest Today at 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts. Afternoon wind chills around Minnesota were in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero.




Temperatures around Minnesota at 3 PM ranged from 3 degrees at South St. Paul to -4 degrees at Bemidji to -8 degrees at Thief River Falls to -1 degree at International Falls to 7 degrees at Eveleth to 12 degrees at Silver Bay to -8 degrees at Wadena to -2 degrees at Staples to zero degrees at Cambridge to 1 degree at Redwood Falls to 9 degrees at Winona.




Tonight through Monday Night:



*Wind Chill Advisory* remains in effect for all but Southern areas of Minnesota. The advisory for Central/Eastern areas of Minnesota is set to expire Sunday Afternoon.




Large and dry arctic high pressure ridge will remain to our west and south during this forecast period while a polar vortex remains to our northeast. Northwest flow aloft will prevail around our area during the next two days with little overall change in temperatures expected. Bitter cold nights and very cold days are anticipated with the current pattern were in. A reinforcing shot of arctic air associated with H85 temps of -25 to -30 degrees C will spill south into Northern Minnesota Tonight and Sunday, although the heart of this second cold air surge will remain to our northeast the way it looks now. Low temperatures Tonight, Sunday Night, and Monday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero with some spots in the North possibly dropping into the 30s below. High temperatures Sunday and Monday will be in the single digits below to above zero with some locales sneaking into the low teens above zero. Winds will continue to be from the west, northwest, or southwest through Monday at 5 to 15 mph with some higher gusts at times. Wind chills during the Overnight and Morning hours will fall into the 15 below to 40 below range around Minnesota with Afternoon wind chills ranging from around 5 below to 25 below. Sky conditions around the state will be clear to partly cloudy with more clouds at times across Southern Minnesota thanks to some overrunning snowfall which will develop Tonight through early next week for areas west and south of Minnesota, it's possible that some flurries may sneak into extreme Southern Minnesota at times during this period, but that would be about the extent of it.




Extended Forecast:



The Upper Midwest will be controlled by the Northern Branch of the jet stream most of next week. Two low pressure systems look to pass by to our north next week, with one passing by around Tuesday/Wednesday and the other toward the latter part of next week. Scattered snow showers, flurries, and perhaps a bit of light freezing drizzle could occur with both systems around Minnesota, but no major amounts of precip are expected since the lows will be passing too far to our north to cause more significant amounts of precipitation. High temperatures around Minnesota will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s Tuesday and Wednesday with lows in the single digits and teens. Could see a brief return of arctic air around Thursday of next week which could send low temps below zero once again, but at the moment it appears that any arctic outbreak would be short lived later next week since the flow aloft seems to be more progressive at that time which tends to lead to frequent tempeature swings around the Upper Midwest.



Forecast for Duluth/Superior:



*Wind Chill Advisory* in effect through Noon CST Monday...



.Tonight... Bitterly cold with dangerous wind chills. Mostly clear. Low 15 below to 20 below. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph. Wind chills ranging from 25 below to 40 below.



.Sunday... Very cold. Mostly sunny. High 1 below to 7 above. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph. Wind chills ranging from 25 below to 40 below in the Morning, and from 10 below to 20 below during the Afternoon.



.Sunday Night... Bitterly cold with dangerous wind chills. Mostly clear. Low 15 below to 20 below. Wind west around 15 mph. Wind chills ranging from 25 below to 40 below.




.Monday... Very cold. Mostly sunny. High zero to 8 above. Wind chills ranging from 25 below to 40 below during the Morning.



.Monday Night... Frigid... Mostly clear. Low 12 below to 18 below.




.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 5 to 10.




.Tuesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low zero to 5 above.




3 PM Thompson Hill Observation:




Current Temperature: 4.8 degrees



Dewpoint: -14 degrees



Humidity: 39%



Wind: WSW at 14 mph G 22 mph




Max Temperature Today: 5.6 degrees




Max Humidity Today: 81%




Min Temperature Today: -15.9 degrees




Min Humidity Today: 39%




Normal High Temperature Today 18 degrees




Normal Low Temperature Today -1 degree




Tim












1/24/09: Morning Lows

Issued at 3:17 PM CST, Saturday, January 24th, 2009

Here are some low temperatures that were reported around the area earlier Today, Saturday, January 24th, 2009.

Duluth MN: -16 degrees

International Falls MN: -17 degrees

Brainerd MN: -20 degrees

Hibbing MN: -24 degrees

Sky Harbor MN: -15 degrees

Cook MN: -20 degrees

Bigfork MN: -26 degrees

Longville MN: -24 degrees

Superior WI: -17 degrees

Embarrass MN: -23 degrees

Hinckley MN: -25 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: -23 degrees

Moose Lake MN: -20 degrees

Alexandria MN: -18 degrees

St. Cloud MN: -17 degrees

Cambridge MN: -17 degrees

Glenwood MN: -18 degrees

Morris MN: -18 degrees

Staples MN: -18 degrees

Milaca MN: -20 degrees

Park Rapids MN: -25 degrees

Thief River Falls MN: -24 degrees

Wadena MN: -22 degrees

Fergus Falls MN: -24 degrees

Fosston MN: -24 degrees

Hallock MN: -26 degrees

Sibley MN: -15 degrees

1 mile South-Southwest of Theilman MN: -21 degrees

Tim

Friday, January 23, 2009

1/23/09: Wind Chill Advisory

Issued at 4:48 PM CST, Friday, January 23rd, 2009

*Wind Chill Advisory* is in effect from 9 PM CST Tonight until 12 PM CST Saturday for all of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Counties in the Duluth area that are included in this advisory are...

Koochiching MN... Itasca MN... Cass MN... Crow Wing MN... Aitkin MN... Pine MN... Carlton MN... St. Louis MN... Lake MN... Cook MN... Douglas WI... Bayfield WI... Ashland WI... Iron WI... Burnett WI... Washburn WI... Sawyer WI... And Price WI.

Some cities included in the advisory are...

International Falls MN... Grand Rapids MN... Walker MN... Brainerd MN... Aitkin MN... Pine City MN... Hinckley MN... Moose Lake MN... Esko MN... Duluth MN... Hibbing MN... Ely MN... Cotton MN... Virginia MN... Two Harbors MN... Finland MN... Silver Bay MN... Grand Marais MN... Superior WI... Solon Springs WI... Port Wing WI... Bayfield WI... Ashland WI... Hurley WI... Siren WI... Grantsburg WI... Spooner WI... Hayward WI... And Park Falls WI...

Bitterly cold temperatures combined with wind speeds of 10 to 20 mph will result in dangerous wind chills around Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight and Saturday Morning. Wind chills will range from 25 below to 40 below in the advisory area with some locations such as Hibbing, International Falls, Walker, Big Fork, and Ely possibly getting as low as 45 below late Tonight and early Saturday Morning.

Frostbite could develop in 10 to 15 minutes on exposed skin. Take proper precautions if you plan to be outdoors for any period of time while the advisory is in effect.

Additional wind chill headlines may be needed for parts of the area for Saturday Night and Sunday.

Tim

1/23/09: Friday's Weather Report


Issued at 4:05 PM CST, Friday, January 23rd, 2009


Surface Analysis at 21z:


Low pressure averaging 1001 mb was centered over the Southeast Ontario/Southwest Quebec area. High pressure averaging 1050 mb was building southeast from Eastern Alberta and Western Saskatchewan.


Upper Air Analysis at 21z:


Flow aloft was NWRLY Today with a potent jet max of 120 knots centered over Central Minnesota at Mid-Afternoon per RUC model analysis. H5 12 hour height falls up to 120-150 meters were found Today over the Upper Great Lakes as the disturbance responsible in bringing down this latest round of arctic air exits Minnesota to the east This Afternoon. Polar vortex at 2130z was dropping southeast through Northeast Manitoba/Western Hudson's Bay per water vapor satellite imagery... H85 temperatures at 21z ranged from -14 to -16 degrees C across Southern Minnesota to -22 degrees C across Northern Minnesota. The 850 mb temp at Duluth was -20 degrees C at 3 PM Today. Temperatures aloft have dropped 15-20 degrees over the past 24 hours around Minnesota.


Today's Weather:


Low pressure and it's associated arctic front swept southeast through Minnesota late last night and This Morning. This system did bring some areas of light freezing drizzle, flurries, and snow showers to parts of Minnesota, but no big ice or snow accumulations were reported anywhere in the state. Winds behind this sytem increased out of the north/northwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 25 to 40 mph over parts of Western-Southern Minnesota late last night through Today. These gusty winds caused areas of blowing and drifting snow over parts of the state from early This Morning through the Afternoon hours.


High temperatures occurred early in the day when readings were in the single digits, teens, and 20s...By This Afternoon, temperatures had fallen into the single digits below to above zero with some teens lingering over parts of Southern Minnesota. Afternoon wind chills were in the single digits, teens, and 20s below with some 30s below occurring from time to time over parts of Northern and Northwest Minnesota.


Temperatures around Minnesota at 4 PM ranged from 11 degrees at St. Paul to -6 degrees at Hallock to -9 degrees at Roseau to 1 degree at Grand Rapids to -2 degrees at Ely to -6 degrees at Wadena to 3 degrees at Little Falls to 9 degrees at Moose Lake to 1 degree at Redwood Falls to 9 degrees at Faribault to 12 degrees at Red Wing.


Wind chills around Minnesota at 4 PM ranged from -26 degrees at Bemidji to -31 degrees at Thief River Falls to -23 degrees at International Falls to -13 degrees at Duluth to -24 degrees at Fergus Falls to -23 degrees at Windom to -23 degrees at New Ulm.


Tonight through Saturday Night:


*Wind Chill Advisory* covers all of Minnesota through Saturday...


High pressure will be in control of our weather as it remains centered to our west and southwest. The flow between this high and a low off to our north-northeast will result in a northwest flow aloft around Minnesota. Look for clear to partly cloudy skies around the state through Saturday Night with low temperatures Tonight and Tomorrow Night in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero with some 30s below possible over the North. Highs on Saturday will be in the single digits below to above zero with some teens below possible North. A reinforcing shot of arctic air is forecast to drop south into Northern Minnesota Saturday Night with H85 temps dropping to -20 to -28 degrees C at that time. Northwest winds at 5 to 15 mph with occasional higher gusts will result in dangerous wind chill values of 20 below to 40 below over most of Minnesota through this forecast period, the lower values will occur during night and Morning hours.


Extended Forecast:


An unphased jet stream will remain over the U.S. into the middle of next week. Appears that Minnesota will be dominated by the northern jet which will mean little chance of any organized snow systems around our neck of the woods at least through the middle of next week. The most active weather during the late weekend into the mid part of next week period looks to reside over the Central and Southern Plains where warmer air and the southern branch of the jet stream interact with the polar airmass which will result in rounds of snow, ice, and rain for those locations. A low associated with the northern branch of the jet looks to track N-NE of Minnesota the middle and end of next week, but with the storm track to our north, nothing more than flurries or snow showers are expected here in Minnesota.


High temperatures around Minnesota will be in the single digits below to above zero Sunday and Monday with some teens possible South. Lows Sunday Night and Monday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below with some 30s below possible North.


Forecast for Duluth/Superior:


*Wind Chill Advisory* in effect from 9 PM CST Tonight until Noon CST Saturday...


.Tonight... Bitterly cold with dangerous wind chills. Clear. Low 15 below to 21 below Inland and from 10 below to 15 below closer to Lake Superior. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Wind chills ranging from 25 below to 40 below.


.Saturday... Very cold. Mostly sunny. High 2 below to 6 above. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Wind chills ranging from 25 below to 40 below before Noon, and from 10 below to 25 below during the Afternoon.


.Saturday Night... Bitterly cold with dangerous wind chills. Mostly clear. Low 15 below to 20 below. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Wind chills ranging from 25 below to 40 below.


.Sunday... Very cold. Mostly sunny. High 3 below to 5 above.


.Sunday Night... Bitterly cold. Partly cloudy. Low 15 below to 20 below.


.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 1 below to 6 above.


.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 12 below to 18 below.


4 PM Thompson Hill Observation:


Current Temperature: 4.7 degrees


Dewpoint: -11 degrees


Humidity: 46%


Wind: WNW at 7 mph G 17 mph


Max Temperature Today: 21.8 degrees, occurred at 12:18 AM Today.


Max Humidity Today: 97%


Min Temperature Today: 4.7 degrees through 4 PM Today.


Min Humidity Today: 46%


Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 18 degrees


Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow -1 degree


Tim

Thursday, January 22, 2009

1/22/09: Thursday's Weather Report


Issued at 3:19 PM CST, Thursday, January 22nd, 2009




Weather tidbits:




Since November 15th, 2008 ending on Today's date... The Duluth Airport has had just 5 days with a high temperature reading at or above 32 degrees.




The last time the Duluth Airport had a high temperature at or above 32 degrees was back on December 26th and 27th, 2008. High temps on those days were 32 degrees and 35 degrees respectively.




December 2008 snowfall total was 37.1" at the Duluth Airport. Normal is 14.9". We were +22.2" above normal for the month in the snowfall department.




December 2008 monthly temperature was 7.0 degrees which was -7.0 degrees below normal.




This January has been sort of similar to last January with both months having little snowfall. Through the 21st of this month, the Duluth Airport has had 9.0" of snow with the bulk of that falling earlier this month. The average snowfall for January is 19.6"




Last January 2008 tied for the least snowiest on record at Duluth with just 2.8" of total snowfall.




Remember that February 2008 turned a bit snowier with March and April 2008 having some large winter storms hitting the city.




With a La Nina in place, things could turn stormier again around the Upper Midwest, but it will likely take time for that to happen. All the bitter cold air that's been in place has to lift out first, then we need the warm air to surge north with the jet stream. No big changes are expected for a while, but as we move into February and March this pattern may start to change.




Surface Analysis at 20z:




Low pressure averaging 1010 mb was centered near Fargo North Dakota. Low pressure averaging 1010 mb was centered over Southeast Mantioba. A stationary front extended from Eastern Ontario through Western Lake Superior to far Northern Minnesota to Southern Manitoba. A cold front extended from Southeast Saskatchewan to Central Montana. Seeing good pressure rises on the order of 3-4 mb per two hours behind this cold front This Afternoon, in other words the next arctic surge is on the move.




Upper Air Analysis at 21z:




It took over a week for the flow to change from a highly amplified one to more of a west/northwesterly flow, bad news is that the amplified flow will be coming back. Afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows a 500 mb trough heading SE through Saskatchewan/Manitoba Province with mid and high level moisture flowing north through the Rockies then east through the Plains and up into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest. H5 12 hour height falls of 150 meters were found over Central Saskatchewan Province Today near this strong trough. 850 mb temperatures at 21z ranged from +2 to +6 degrees C from Western Minnesota through the Southern half of Minnesota with zero to -8 degree C 850 mb temps found over Northern areas of the state. The 850 mb temperature at Duluth was zero to -2 degrees C at 3 PM Today. Arctic airmass with minus 20 to minus 24 degree C 850 mb temps were beginning to push S/SE out of Alberta and Saskatchewan Province This Afternoon while the real warm air that was associated with the big ridge out west now resides over the Central and Southern Plains Today where H85 temps ranged from +12 to +18 degrees with surface temps in the 60s, 70s, and 80s from Nebraska southeast to Missouri down through Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.




Areas of fog which was dense in some locations burned off This Morning and during the early Afternoon hours over all but the North half of Minnesota where areas of fog lingered along with cloudy skies all day long. Sunshine was most abundant over Southern areas of the state This Afternoon with high temps in the 20s and 30s with teens and 20s common elsewhere. Winds across the state were out of the south or east Today under 12 mph.




Temperatures around Minnesota at 3 PM ranged from 27 degrees at Blaine to 14 degrees at Moorhead to 25 degrees at Crane Lake to 16 degrees at Wadena to 20 degrees at Brainerd to 32 degrees at Pipestone to 34 degrees at Slayton to 25 degrees at Dodge Center.




Tonight through Friday Night:




*Wind Chill Advisory* is in effect from Midnight CST Tonight until 6 PM CST Friday for all of Northwest Minnesota and parts of Westcentral Minnesota. Some cities included in the advisory are... Roseau MN... Crookston MN... Thief River Falls MN... Bemidji MN... Moorhead MN... Detroit Lakes MN... And Fergus Falls MN...




Low pressure will track east out of the Dakotas through Northcentral Minnesota This Evening with this low then exiting to our E/SE by early Friday Morning. Arctic boundary will swing S/SE across Minnesota as this low tracks east. Areas of light snow and flurries will likely occur Tonight and Friday Morning across Northern Minnesota with accumulations around an inch or less expected. Some snow flurries could fall elsewhere as this front moves through later Tonight and Friday. Areas of fog and perhaps some light freezing drizzle could also occur around parts of Minnesota Tonight until this front moves through. Arctic air and gusty winds will overspread Minnesota from NW/SE Friday and Friday Night with strong high pressure building into Minnesota from the W/NW during this period. Lows Tonight will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s with highs Friday occurring late Tonight when readings will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s. Temperatures by Friday Afternoon will fall into the single digits and teens below to above zero across Minnesota with lows Friday Night ranging from 5 below to 20 below with 20 below to 30 below readings possible up north. South, east, or north winds are expected This Evening under 15 mph, then look for north or northwest winds to develop and increase to between 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts possible over Western and Southern Minnesota on Friday. Wind speeds Friday Night will be in the 10 to 20 mph range. Wind chills will drop into the 5 below to 25 below range across most of Minnesota on Friday and will range from 20 below to 40 below Friday Night.




Extended Forecast:




Arctic high pressure will be in control of our weather this weekend with cold air and mainly dry conditions expected to continue around the state. Overrunning snow looks like it'll stay west and southwest of Minnesota over the weekend as we remain under the influence of high pressure and the northern branch of the jet stream. High temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be in the single digits below to above zero with some teens below possible North. Lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night will range from around 5 below to 20 below with 20 below to 30 below zero temperatures possible up North.




Looks like temperatures will begin to moderate around the Upper Midwest as we head into next week, although it doesn't look like will see any big warm-ups, but readings should get back to normal to slightly above normal levels after Monday of next week.




No signs of any big storms around the Upper Midwest through early next week...The middle or end of next week may be different if the jet streams can phase and allow a strong storm to track E/NE out of the Plains...Some forecast models Today do show this happening, but others don't, plus one model run will show something happening, then a new model run 6 hours down the road shows something completely different. So right now confidence is extremely low for any big storm to affect Minnesota's weather the middle or end of next week, but it bears watching.




Forecast for Duluth/Superior:




.Tonight... Cloudy. Hazy with areas of fog, flurries, and perhaps a bit of light freezing drizzle This Evening. A few snow showers possible Overnight. Low zero to 5 above. Wind east to southeast under 10 mph, shifting to the north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph after 2 AM.




.Friday... Breezy and turning colder. A few flurries possible during the Morning. Partly sunny. High 15 to 20 early with temperatures falling into the single digits. Wind north to northwest at 15 to 25 mph. Wind chills from 10 below to 20 below.




.Friday Night... Frigid. Mostly clear. Low 12 below to 18 below. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Wind chills from 25 below to 40 below.




.Saturday... Very cold. Mostly sunny. High 3 below to 5 above.




.Saturday Night... Frigid. Mostly clear. Low 15 below to 20 below.




.Sunday... Very cold. Mostly sunny. High 3 below to 5 above.




.Sunday Night... Frigid. Partly cloudy. Low 11 below to 17 below.




Normal High Temperature Today 18 degrees




Normal Low Temperature Today -1 degree




4 PM Thompson Hill Observation:




Current Temperature: 21.8 degrees




Dewpoint: 20 degrees




Humidity: 97%




Wind: E at 1 mph G 3 mph




Max Temperature Today: 22.7 degrees




Max Humidity Today: 97%




Min Temperature Today: 17.1 degrees




Min Humidity Today: 92%




Tim




Wednesday, January 21, 2009

1/21/09: Wednesday's Weather Report


Issued at 3:32 PM CST, Wednesday, January 21st, 2009


February 2009 Outlook for Minnesota issued by the Climate Prediction Center on January 15th, 2009... Equal Chances to see Below Normal, Normal, or Above Normal Temperatures and Precipitation for Minnesota.


February 2009 through April 2009 Outlook for Minnesota issued by the Climate Prediction Center on January 15th, 2009... Equal Chances to see Below Normal, Normal, or Above Normal Temperatures and Precipitation for Minnesota.


Surface Analysis at 21z:


Low pressure averaging 1012 mb was centered over Western South Dakota. A trough extended from Southwest Wisconsin to Southwest Missouri to Central Oklahoma. A cold front extended from Central Ontario to Central Saskatchewan with low pressure averaging 1010 mb centered over Eastern Manitoba.


Upper Air Analysis at 21z:


Northwest flow aloft was in place over the Upper Midwest Today as the big ridge which has been in place across the Western U.S. for almost a week begins to break down thanks in part to a trough of low pressure which is heading into the Western U.S. 850 mb temperatures have finally made it above zero over most of Minnesota Today with 21z 850 mb temps ranging from zero to -6 degrees C in Northeast and far Northern Minnesota to +2 to +6 degrees C elsewhere. The 850 mb temp at Duluth was +2 degrees C at 3 PM Today. Looking at the water vapor satellite imagery reveals a potent disturbance heading E-SE across Northern British Columbia and Northern Alberta...This system will be the one that'll help to pull down another lobe of arctic air into the Upper Midwest by Friday.


60 degree surface temperature line reached the South Dakota/Nebraska state line for the second day in a row with the 32 degree surface temperature line making it into extreme Southwest Minnesota Today.


High temperatures around Minnesota were in the 20s and 30s Today with winds out of the west or south around 15 mph or less. Plenty of low clouds along with patchy flurries, fog, and light freezing drizzle did develop over Minnesota earlier in the day, but sunshine broke out from west to east during the late Morning and Afternoon hours with the only areas still socked in by low clouds being the Northern portion of Minnesota late Today.


Temperatures around Minnesota at 4 PM ranged from 31 degrees at Bemidji to 19 degrees at Hallock to 32 degrees at Longville to 20 degrees at Duluth to 32 degrees at Wheaton to 30 degrees at Pine River to 30 degrees at Moose Lake to 33 degrees at Canby to 23 degrees at Owatonna to 19 degrees at Rochester.


Tonight through Thursday Night:


Areas of fog which could be quite dense in some spots late This Afternoon(visibilities down to 1/2 mile at Hallock at 4 PM and 1 mile at Warroad) will likely expand in coverage around Minnesota during the night, the fog could then persist in spots through Thursday as a cold front drops south from Central Canada and helps pool what moisture there is along and ahead of this boundary. Patchy flurries or light freezing drizzle could also develop later Tonight and Thursday, especially over the Northern half of the state. Look for the cold front to drop down into Northern Minnesota Thursday Night as an area of low pressure tracks along and slightly ahead of the boundary. Look for some light snow or flurries around Northern Minnesota Thursday Night with accumulations under an inch. Lows Tonight will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s with highs Thursday in the 20s and 30s. Lows Thursday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s. Winds will be out of the west, northwest, or southwest Tonight under 15 mph. Winds Thursday and Thursday Night will be out of the south, east, or north around 10 to 20 mph.


Extended Forecast:


Cold front will be blasting to the south/east of Minnesota Friday Morning with arctic high pressure then building into Minnesota from the west/northwest through the weekend. Could be some flurries or snow showers over parts of the state on Friday with little accumulation expected. Dry weather is then expected for Saturday and Sunday, but Southern Minnesota could see a little bit of snow toward the end of the weekend as some moisture tries to lift north and overruns the arctic air in place, although at the moment it appears that the bulk of the snow will pass west and south of Minnesota.


Appears will see two shots of arctic air with one hitting Friday Night/Saturday Morning and the second (possibly stronger surge) occurring Saturday Afternoon into Sunday. 850 mb temperatures could drop to -24 to -28 degrees C at times this weekend across the North half of Minnesota. This really isn't much different from how low the 850 mb temps were with last week's arctic outbreak and that resulted in widespread 30s/40s below for nighttime lows across Northern Minnesota.


A period of gusty north/northwest winds will likely affect most of Minnesota Friday into Friday Night in wake of the arctic front and low passing to our east. Strong cold advection occurring behind those features will help in generating those gusty winds.


Wind speeds during the weekend will be around 20 mph or less and that combined with how cold the air temps will be could result in dangerously low wind chills over portions of Minnesota from Friday Night through Sunday.


...Wind chill headlines may be needed for some parts of Minnesota this weekend...


High temperatures around Minnesota on Friday will be in the teens, 20s, and 30s but temps will fall into the single digits below to above zero with some teens farther south by Friday Afternoon. Highs Saturday will be in the single digits below to above zero with some teens below North. Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night will range from zero to 20 below with 20 below to 30 below temperatures possible North areas.


Forecast for Duluth/Superior:


.Tonight... Some haze. Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog, flurries, or light freezing drizzle possible. Low 15 to 20. Wind west under 15 mph.


.Thursday... Patchy fog, flurries, or light freezing drizzle possible. Otherwise mostly cloudy. High 23 to 28. Wind southwest under 15 mph.


.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low zero to 5 below. Wind becoming north at 10 to 15 mph.


.Friday... Breezy and colder. Flurries possible. Partly sunny. High 15 to 20 with temperatures falling through the single digits. Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph. Wind chills falling to 10 below to 20 below during the Afternoon.


.Friday Night... Frigid. Partly cloudy. Low 15 below to 20 below. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Wind chills 25 below to 40 below.


.Saturday... Very cold. Mostly sunny. High 3 below to 4 above.


.Saturday Night... Frigid. Mostly clear. Low 17 below to 22 below.


4 PM Thompson Hill Observation:


Current Temperature: 23.6 degrees


Dewpoint: 18 degrees


Humidity: 79%


Wind: SW at 8 mph G 11 mph


Max Temperature Today: 24.6 degrees


Max Humidity Today: 93%


Min Temperature Today: 13.5 degrees


Min Humidity Today: 78%


Tim