Wednesday, September 17, 2014

September 17, 2014 Weather Report - Frost/freeze possible over parts of the Northland Tonight; Chilly temps continue on Thursday near Lake Superior; 70s Saturday?

/Issued 3:40 PM CDT, Wednesday, September 17, 2014/

Late Afternoon visible satellite image.  Gusty E/NE winds resulting in widespread clouds coming off Lake Superior along the North and South Shore.  These clouds will need to burn off for frost/freeze conditions to develop Overnight, not very confident on that occurring.  Will just have to wait and see.  Source, COD website.






























NWS hazards map.

-Dark blue=Freeze warning

-Blue=Frost advisory

-Light blue=Beach hazards statement for dangerous swimming conditions.




























*FREEZE WARNING*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A freeze warning has been issued for a part of Northeast Minnesota including the Arrowhead.

Timing:  Midnight Tonight until 7 AM CDT Thursday.

Counties included in the warning:

Cook MN
Northern Lake MN

Some cities included in the warning:

Grand Marais
Hovland
Grand Portage
Isabella

Discussion:  Temperatures are forecast to fall to between 27 and 32 degrees.  Tender vegetation will stop growing.

A freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely.  These conditions will kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

*FROST ADVISORY*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A frost advisory has been issued for portions of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Timing:  Midnight Tonight until 7 AM CDT Thursday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Koochiching MN
Central and Northern St. Louis MN
Southern Lake MN

Bayfield WI
Ashland WI
Iron WI
Sawyer WI
Price WI

Some cities included in the advisory:

International Falls
Littlefork
Hibbing
Ely
Orr
Crane Lake
Two Harbors
Finland
Silver Bay

Port Wing
Bayfield
Washburn
Cable
Drummond
Ashland
High Bridge
Mellen
Clam Lake
Hurley
Upson
Gile
Hayward
Winter
Park Falls
Fifield

Discussion:  Temperatures are forecast to fall to between 29 and 34 degrees.  Sensitive outdoor plans may be killed if left uncovered.

A frost advisory means that frost is possible.  Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota - Airport location

*High temperature of 69F on September 16 was the warmest maximum temperature since September 9 (73F)  Tuesday (16th) also marked the 1st time getting above 60 degrees since September 9.

Weather Summary for September 17, 2014
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A cold front has moved into Central Minnesota late This Afternoon with high pressure of 1022mb covering Manitoba and Ontario.  Much colder temperatures developed Today near Lake Superior while another mild day occurred elsewhere.  Late Afternoon temperatures ranged from the 40s near Lake Superior under mostly cloudy skies while partly cloudy skies and mid 60s to low 70s were common across Western-Southern areas with 50s along the Borderland.  Winds were out of the east to northeast at 15-30 mph near Lake Superior while north or northwest winds prevailed elsewhere at generally less than 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (September 17)

High pressure will continue to build south out of Ontario.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with lows in the 30s and 40s with some 20s possible over the Arrowhead.  Winds will be out of the east or shift to the east if they haven't do so already.  Wind speeds will range from 5-15 mph with gusts to 30 mph near Lake Superior.

Thursday and Thursday Night (September 18)

High pressure will be in control of our weather this period as it passes north/east of our area.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with highs in the 60s in Western/Southern areas with 40s and 50s near Lake Superior.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the 40s and 50s with 30s in the Arrowhead.  Winds will be out of the east or southeast at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Friday through Sunday (September 19-21)

An area of low pressure along with a warm front and cold front will move through the area on Friday which will be followed by a secondary cold front and upper level trough on Saturday.  These systems could bring some showers to the Northland from Friday into Saturday. 

High temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s and 60s on Friday with milder temperatures possible on Saturday when 60s and 70s are possible.  Highs on Sunday will be in the 50s and 60s.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(September 22-27)

Near to below average temperatures through this period with possible showers sometime around the 25th-27th time frame.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Breezy and colder.  Mostly cloudy with some partial clearing possible late.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph near Lake Superior.

.Thursday...  Considerable cloudiness.  High 48 to 53.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 43 to 48.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph becoming south late.

.Friday...  Showers possible at times.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 60 to 65.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low 55 to 60.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  A few showers possible.  High 70 to 75.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 47 to 52.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 60 to 65.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  65
Low:   46

Sunrise Thursday:  6:50 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   7:14 PM CDT

Tim

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

September 16, 2014 Weather Report - Turning much cooler on Wednesday near Lake Superior with gusty ENE winds; Shower chances late this week.

/Issued 4:42 PM CDT, Tuesday, September 16, 2014/

East to northeast winds will increase near Lake Superior during the day Wednesday with wind gusts possibly as high as 25-30 mph from late Morning through the Afternoon hours.  Map below is the 925mb wind forecast for Wednesday PM per 18z WRF model.




























September 1-15, 2014 climate stats for Duluth, MN - Airport location

Average temperature:  57.1 degrees
Departure:  -1.5 degrees

8 days with a high temperature of at least 70F
6 days with a high temperature cooler than 60F
3 days with a low temperature in the 30s

Total precipitation:  0.68"
Departure:  -1.42"

2 thunderstorm days

1st half of September, 2014 temperature departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.  Below average temps for the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest.




























1st half of September, 2014 precipitation departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.  Very wet across Eastern Minnesota, the Northern 1/2 of Wisconsin and in Upper Michigan with precipitation totals around 300% above average.































Weather Summary for September 16, 2014
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A near perfect mid September day throughout the Northland.  A cold front was hugging the Ontario-Minnesota border late This Afternoon while high pressure of 1020mb was centered to our southeast.  Mild temperatures covered the area Today with a gusty southwest wind at 10 to 25 mph.  High temperatures ranged from the mid 60s to 70 degrees over all but extreme Northern Minnesota where temperatures were in the upper 50s at 4 PM.  Note:  Much colder air was found over Ontario This Afternoon with temperatures only in the 40s with 850mb temperatures in the 0 to -8C range, that's impressive for the time of year.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (September 16)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies can be expected Tonight with the possibility for a shower or some patchy drizzle in far Northern areas.  A cold front will sag slowly south through the night and should reach the Highway 2 corridor by daybreak.  Lows Tonight will be in the 40s to around 50 degrees but a few spots might fall into the 30s.  Winds will be out of the southwest or north/northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (September 17)

A cold front will push south and out of the Northland Tomorrow while high pressure builds in from Ontario.  Will see a wide range in high temperatures on Wednesday with 40s and 50s near Lake Superior and 60s and a few 70s in Western/Southern areas.  Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.  Winds will be out of west, north, or east Tomorrow at 10 to 20 mph with mainly east winds Tomorrow Night at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Thursday through Saturday (September 18-20)

Dry weather is forecast on Thursday, after that we could see some showers at times from late Thursday Night through Saturday as low pressure along with a warm front and cold front move through the area.

High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s from Thursday through Saturday with lows Thursday Night and Friday Night in the 40s and 50s with some 30s possible Thursday Night.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(September 21-26)

Near to below average temperatures are forecast this period with showers possible around the 25th-26th the way it looks now.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Low 42 to 47.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday...  Turning much cooler and becoming windy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 58 to 63 but temperatures falling into the 40s during the Afternoon.  Wind becoming east at 15 to 30 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 52 to 57.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 42 to 47.

.Friday...  Showers possible.  High 60 to 65.

.Friday Night...  Showers possible.  Low 55 to 60.

.Saturday...  Showers possible.  High 60 to 65.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  65
Low:   46

Sunrise Wednesday:  6:49 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   7:16 PM CDT

Tim

Monday, September 15, 2014

Pictures

Here's some pictures I've taken during the past few weeks, enjoy!
 
 
September 2, 2014- Duluth, Minnesota.

September 3, 2014 - Duluth, Minnesota.

September 3, 2014 - Duluth, Minnesota

September 3, 2014 - Duluth, Minnesota

September 3, 2014 - Duluth, Minnesota

September 5, 2014 - Northern Nationals Amsoil Speedway, Superior, WI.

September 5, 2014 - Northern Nationals Amsoil Speedway, Superior, WI.

September 5, 2014 - Northern Nationals Amsoil Speedway, Superior, WI.

September 5, 2014 - Northern Nationals Amsoil Speedway, Superior, WI.

September 9, 2014 - Duluth, Minnesota (sunset)

September 11, 2014 - Amity Creek

September 11, 2014 - Hawks Ridge.

September 11, 2014 - Hawks Ridge.

August 24, 2014 - Ogilvie, Minnesota.
 


August 24, 2014 - Ogilvie, Minnesota.

August 24, 2014 - Ogilvie, Minnesota.

August 27, 2014 - Enger Tower.

August 31, 2014 - Duluth, Minnesota.

August 31, 2014 - Duluth, Minnesota.

August 31, 2014 - Duluth, Minnesota.





Tim
 

September 15, 2014 Weather Report - A pleasant Tuesday ahead with highs in the 60s to around 70; Much cooler on Wednesday (Lake breeze)

/Issued 3:13 PM CDT, Monday, September 15, 2014/

Quite the temperature spread by mid week thanks to an Ontario high which will pump chilly air down Lake Superior while a warm southerly flow covers the Plans.  Near 90 in Southwest South Dakota with 40s and 50s in Northeast Minnesota.  Map valid for Thursday Afternoon, September 18, 2014 per 18z NAM/WRF model.


























Area in blue on the map is under a frost advisory for late Tonight.  Source, NWS hazards map.

































Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, MN - Airport location

September 7-13, 2014

High temperatures:

9/7:  77F/8 degrees above normal
9/8:  74F/6 degrees above normal
9/9:  73F/5 degrees above normal
9/10:  53F/14 degrees below normal
9/11:  53F/14 degrees below normal
9/12:  50F/17 degrees below normal
9/13:  56F/10 degrees below normal

Low temperatures:

9/7:  54F/4 degrees above normal
9/8:  55F/6 degrees above normal
9/9:  54F/5 degrees above normal
9/10:  44F/4 degrees below normal
9/11:  39F/9 degrees below normal
9/12:  34F/14 degrees below normal
9/13:  34F/13 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  0.27"
Normal:  1.00"
Departure:  -0.73"

*FROST ADVISORY*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A frost advisory has been issued for parts of Northwest Wisconsin.

Timing:  Midnight Tonight until 8 AM CDT Tuesday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Bayfield WI
Ashland WI
Iron WI
Washburn WI
Sawyer WI
Price WI

Some cities included in the advisory:

Port Wing
Cable
Bayfield
Washburn
Drummond
Ashland
High Bridge
Mellen
Clam Lake
Butternut
Gile
Hurley
Upson
Montreal
Minong
Spooner
Trego
Shell Lake
Hayward
Winter
Exeland
Park Falls
Phillips
Fifield

Discussion:  Low temperatures in the lower to middle 30s.  Sensitive plants and vegetation could be damaged or killed by the cold temperatures if unprotected.

A frost advisory means that frost is possible.  Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

Weather Summary for September 15, 2014
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies were common in our area Today with another day of below average high temperatures which topped out in the mid 50s to low 60s.  Winds were out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (September 15)

High pressure will move east out of the Northern Plains Tonight.  Some clouds will linger over the Northland as low temperatures fall into the 30s and 40s.  Northwest winds will turn southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (September 16)

High pressure moves off to our southeast while a cold front drops south out of Ontario, reaching Northern sections of Minnesota this period.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period, and there could be a few showers at times mainly over far Northern Minnesota and over the Arrowhead.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 60s with 50s in far Northern Minnesota.  Lows Tuesday Night will mainly be in the 40s.  Winds will be out of the southwest or north at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Wednesday through Friday (September 17-19)

A few showers are possible on Wednesday across far Northern Minnesota but most of us will remain dry on Wednesday, and mainly dry conditions are also expected on Thursday. 

An area of low pressure along with a warm front and cold front will approach the Upper Midwest on Friday - this system could bring some showers to the area later this week.

Highs on Wednesday will be in the 40s and 50s with 60s in Western/Southern areas.  Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.  Highs on Thursday and Friday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Thursday Night in the 30s and 40s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(September 20-25)

Near to below average temperatures are forecast this period.  Some showers are possible on Saturday (20th)  otherwise this period is looking generally dry at this time.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Some clouds.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming southwest late.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 65 to 70.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Wednesday...  Cooler.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 52 to 57.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 42 to 47.

.Friday...  Showers possible.  High 60 to 65.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  65
Low:   46

Sunrise Tuesday:  6:48 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   7:18 PM CDT

Tim





Saturday, September 13, 2014

September 13, 2014 Weather Report - Not as cold Tonight; A few showers Tonight/Sunday; Temperatures soar into the 60s on Tuesday, a few locales might even hit 70!

/Issued 4:33 PM CDT, Saturday, September 13, 2014/

***RECORD EVENT***
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Record low temperature Today, September 13, 2014 at International Falls, Minnesota.

New record:  25F
Old record:  26F set in 1975.

Low temperature report for September 13, 2014
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  34F
International Falls, MN:  25F
Brainerd, MN:  30F
Hibbing, MN:  28F
Hayward, WI:  30F
Sky Harbor, MN:  37F
Orr, MN:  34F
Cook, MN:  30F
Crane Lake, MN:  28F
Eveleth, MN:  30F
Bigfork, MN:  28F
Grand Rapids, MN:  30F
Longville, MN:  28F
Pine River, MN:  28F
Moose Lake, MN:  32F
Hinckley, MN:  32F
Cloquet, MN:  30F
McGregor, MN:  32F
Walker, MN:  32F
Superior, WI:  34F
Siren, WI:  32F
Phillips, WI:  33F
Togo, MN:  33F
Duluth, MN (NWS)  33F
Floodwood, MN:  28F
3 E of Orr, MN:  30F
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  33F
3 WNW of Cotton, MN:  25F

Weather Summary for September 13, 2014
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1014mb was over Northeast North Dakota late This Afternoon with high pressure of 1026mb over Western Illinois.  Southerly flow developed over the Northland Today but high temperatures remained below seasonal averages by about 10 degrees.  Highs were generally in the mid to upper 50s with south or southwest winds at 10 to around 25 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (September 13)

Scattered showers will be possible across the area Tonight as a cold front settles southeast into the Upper Midwest.  Showers will likely move in a west to east, or northwest to southeast direction so Northwest Wisconsin should remain dry until well after Midnight.  It won't be as cold Tonight as the previous two nights thanks to the clouds and southerly flow.  Lows will mainly be in the 40s with south or southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night (September 14)

An area of low pressure along with a trough/cold front will continue to track southeast across the region on Sunday.  This system will likely bring a few showers to the Northland Tomorrow with dry weather returning Sunday Night.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected this period with highs in the 50s and 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s.  Winds will be out of the west at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Monday through Wednesday (September 15-17)

Mainly dry weather is anticipated during this period with increasing onshore winds near Lake Superior by Tuesday PM-Wednesday as a cold front drops south out of Ontario while high pressure sets up north of Lake Superior by midweek.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s and 60s from Monday through Wednesday, a few locales might even get into the 70s on Tuesday.  Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will mainly be in the 40s with a few 30s also possible by Tuesday Night.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(September 18-23)

Near to below average temperatures are forecast this period.  Showers are possible from the 19th-21st.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  A few showers possible mainly after Midnight.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday...  Partial sunshine.  A few showers possible.  High 58 to 63.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 58 to 63.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 65 to 70.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 55 to 60.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  66
Low:   47

Sunrise Sunday:  6:45 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   7:22 PM CDT

Tim