Monday, June 26, 2017

Cool tonight (Spotty evening showers) 70s and Dry Tuesday; Cooler with some rain midweek

/Issued 5:36 PM CDT, Monday, June 26, 2017/

Source:  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com

12z 6.26.17 European Ensemble model

Note:  Ridge=Warmer temperatures while cooler temperatures can be expected where troughs set up.

--Although showers are in the forecast Friday/Saturday it likely won't be an all day rain.  Scattered showers develop, affect some of us while other spots stay dry, the process will repeat itself both Friday and Saturday with dry periods in between the rain showers, and of course this is subject to change since it's still a few days down the road.

High temperature forecast for the Twin Ports this weekend

Saturday:  ~64 degrees
Sunday:  ~70 degrees














Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/

Note:  Normal low temperatures here in the Northland in late June are in the low to mid 50s.
















Low temperature reports from this morning, June 26, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Embarrass, MN:  33 F
Crane Lake, MN:  34 F
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN (Airport)  35 F
Bruno, MN:  36 F
Aitkin, MN:  37 F
Bigfork, MN:  37 F
Moose Lake, MN:  37 F
Twig, MN 3 WNW:  38 F
Siren, WI:  38 F
Togo, MN:  38 F
Cook, MN:  39 F
South Range, WI 4 SSE:  39 F
Pine River, MN:  39 F
Wright, MN 3 E:  39 F
Hinckley, MN:  41 F
Cloquet, MN:  41 F
International Falls, MN:  41 F
Duluth, MN (Airport)  42 F
Cass Lake, MN:  43 F
Hayward, WI:  43 F
Winter, WI:  43 F
Hurley, WI:  44 F
Phillips, WI:  44 F

Local Storm Reports
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

*1:20 PM CDT 6.26:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Ely, MN 1 E (St. Louis County)

*1:20 PM CDT 6.26:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  South Range, WI 4 SSE (Douglas County)

*2:00 PM CDT 6.25:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Coleraine, MN 8 NNW (Itasca County)

*2:12 PM CDT 6.24:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Cloverdale, MN 5 ENE (Pine County)

*Record Event*

Record low temperature at Hibbing, Minnesota today, June 26, 2017.

New Record:  35 degrees
Old Record:  38 degrees set in 1982

Note:  Hibbing, Minnesota also tied their record low temperature of 37 degrees on June 25, 2017.  The previous record was set in 1996.

Top ten coldest low temperatures on June 25-26, 2017...see stats below

-June 25, 2017:  Low temperature of 43 degrees at the Duluth Airport 5th coldest low temperature on record for June 25.  The record low temperature 39 degrees set in 1957.

-June 25, 2017:  Low temperature of 43 degrees at International Falls tied with 2004 for 5th coldest low temperature on record for June 25.  The record low temperature 38 degrees set in 2012 and 1996.

-June 26, 2017:  Low temperature of 42 degrees at the Duluth Airport tied with 1962 and 1909 for 5th coldest low temperature on record for June 26.  The record low temperature for today's date 36 degrees set in 1982.

-June 26, 2017:  Low temperature of 41 degrees at International Falls tied with 2009 and 1992 for 3rd coldest low temperature on record for June 26.  The record low temperature for today's date is 39 degrees set in 1948.

Weather Synopsis

Slightly warmer today but still below average high temps for late June with highs in the 60s to around 70 degrees.  The temperatures aloft although still cold aren't as cold as they were this past weekend.  Late afternoon 500mb temperatures were at around -22C while 850mb temperatures were sitting at around +7C.  Saw a mix of sun/clouds across the area today with scattered afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms.  The amount of instability was a bit higher today thanks to the slightly milder temperatures.  Afternoon CAPE values up to 500 j/kg were found in parts of the Northland, this combined with low freezing levels led to a few reports of small hail with the stronger storms today.

Cool temperatures continue tonight with lows in the 40s to lower 50s but the traditional cold spots will likely dip into the 30s once again.  A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move toward the SE this evening with mainly dry weather expected by late evening and through the overnight hours.

Tuesday looks pretty nice as winds swing around to the SW as high pressure over the eastern Dakotas  this evening moves to the Ohio Valley Tuesday afternoon.  Partly cloudy skies are forecast with highs mainly in the 70s.

Occasional rain on the way from late Tuesday night but more so for Wednesday as low pressure along with a warm front, cold front and inverted trough move east across the upper Midwest.  Not a lot of instability this far north the way it looks now but a few thunderstorms are still possible.  Deeper moisture pushes into our area on Wednesday so some heavier downpours could occur.  Much cooler temps for midweek with highs Wednesday in the 50s and 60s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Spotty showers early otherwise partly cloudy.  Low 46 to 51.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming west.

.Tuesday...  Milder.  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 71 to 76.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday...  Cooler with occasional rain.  Mostly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  74
Low:   53

Sunrise Tuesday:  5:16 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim







Sunday, June 25, 2017

A top 10 coldest high temp on record today (June 25) at Duluth and International Falls. Little warmer Monday (Spotty PM showers) 70s and dry Tuesday

/Issued 7:58 PM CDT, Sunday, June 25, 2017/
















Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Temperature departure map for the week of June 18, 2017 -- It was a cool week across the area.  The low temperatures were actually close to average for most of the week, but it was the high temps that were well below average for most of last week.




















Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Precipitation departure map for the week of June 18, 2017.




















Through 5 PM, June 25, 2017

Note:  Tied for 8th coldest high temperature on record at Duluth, Minnesota, today (June 25, 2017)  High temperature so far today 61 degrees.  See top 10 list below

1)  51 F in 1898
2)  52 F in 1888 and 1881
3)  53 F in 1922 and 1884
4)  56 F in 1942 and 1887
5)  57 F in 1968, 1920 and 1918

6)  58 F in 1970 and 1948
7)  60 F in 2014, 1958, 1951, 1944 and 1906
8)  61 F in 2017, 2004, 1969, 1921, 1915 and 1883

9)  62 F in 1982, 1926, 1917 and 1902
10)  63 F in 1942, 1956 and 1892

Note:  4th coldest high temperature on record at International Falls, Minnesota, today (June 25, 2017)  High temperature so far today 62 degrees. See top 10 list below

1)  58 F in 1898
2)  59 F in 2004 and 1985
3)  61 F in 1992 and 1970
4)  62 F in 2017
5)  63 F in 1993 and 1958

6)  64 F in 1976, 1969, 1953, 1948 and 1926
7)  65 F in 1922
8)  67 F in 2014, 1968 and 1909
9)  68 F in 2003
10)  69 F in 2000, 1997, 1952 and 1908

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

June 18-24, 2017

High temperatures

6/18:  68 F/-4 degrees below normal
6/19:  65 F/-7 degrees below normal
6/20:  68 F/-4 degrees below normal
6/21:  72 F/Normal
6/22:  77 F/+4 degrees above normal
6/23:  70 F/-3 degrees below normal
6/24:  63 F/-10 degrees below normal

Low temperatures

6/18:  55 F/+5 degrees above normal
6/19:  50 F/Normal
6/20:  49 F/-2 degrees below normal
6/21:  45 F/-6 degrees below normal
6/22:  49 F/-2 degrees below normal
6/23:  50 F/-2 degrees below normal
6/24:  51 F/-1 degree below normal

Total precipitation:  0.43"
Normal:  1.07"
Departure:  -0.64" below normal

24-hour rainfall totals
Source:  http://mesowest.utah.edu

Note:  Rainfall amounts listed below are through around 7 PM, June 25, 2017

Fernberg, MN:  1.34 in
Isabella, MN:  1.20 in
Ely, MN:  1.04 in
Grand Marais, MN:  0.97 in
Seagull Lake, MN:  0.93 in
International Falls, MN:  0.59 in
Kabetogama, MN:  0.58 in
Orr, MN:  0.54 in
Hayward, WI:  0.53 in
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN (Airport)  0.49 in
Glidden, WI:  0.48 in
Littlefork, MN:  0.47 in
Clam Lake, WI:  0.33 in
Washburn, WI:  0.25 in
Phillips, WI:  0.22 in
McGregor, MN:  0.21 in
Grand Portage, MN:  0.20 in
Solon Springs, WI:  0.17 in
Two Harbors, MN:  0.12 in
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.08 in

Weather Synopsis

A very cool airmass was over the Northland today.  Late afternoon meso-analysis revealed 500mb temperatures of -22 to -25C with 850mb temperatures from +3 to +5C.  Daytime highs today were only in the 50s to lower 60s while a few locations in far northeast Minnesota had temps in the upper 40s this afternoon.  Persistent NW flow aloft brought another disturbance down into our area today although today's system tracked farther north compared to Saturday's.  Rain was widespread most of the day in far northeast Minnesota while occasional showers were common over most of the rest of the Northland.  Winds were a bit gusty today out of the northwest with wind speeds in the 10 to 25 mph range.

Rain will continue most of the night in far northeast Minnesota along and east of a line from near Forest Center, Isabella and Silver Bay.  A few showers will also occur west/south of those areas in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin but this activity should taper off by later this evening with mainly dry weather expected for these areas overnight.  Could be some patchy fog late tonight otherwise partly to mostly cloudy skies with cool low temperatures in the 40s, maybe even some 30s up north if skies clear out enough.

Turning a bit warmer but still slightly cooler than normal for Monday with highs in the 60s to lower 70s under partly to mostly sunny skies -- A few pop up afternoon showers or thunderstorms in parts of the Northland as well.

Tuesday still looks to be one of the nicer days this week with a mix of sun/clouds along with a breeze out of the SW -- Highs Tuesday mainly in the 70s (Normal for late June)

Cooler temps return midweek along with chances for rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms.  Low pressure moving east out of the northern Plains along with a warm front and cold front will lead to these rain chances for Wednesday.  Higher moisture content also moves in with PWATS over 1.25" this could lead to some heavier downpours in parts of the Northland for Wednesday.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Spotty showers before midnight.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Spotty afternoon showers.  High 66 to 71.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.  Southwest wind 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  74
Low:   52

Sunrise Monday:  5:16 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim

Saturday, June 24, 2017

High of 65 F at International Falls today (7th coolest June 24th on record dating back to 1895) Occasional showers through Sunday evening

/Issued 6:37 PM CDT, Saturday, June 24, 2017/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Water vapor satellite image from 5:15 PM CDT on June 24, 2017.
















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

A very cool looking water vapor loop from today showing the tightly wound up system moving east/southeast through the upper Midwest -- This water vapor satellite loop runs from ~5 AM today to ~Noon today.
















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

RAP model 500mb temperatures from 4 PM today (June 24, 2017)
















Source:  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Two images below are from the 6.24.2017 12z GEFS model -- Temperature anomaly forecast.

Note:  The take away from these maps is that cooler than normal temperatures should continue across our area through next weekend.  A brief warm up is expected Tuesday and possibly Wednesday with temperatures trending closer to average for late June, but the overall trend is for below average temps possibly through the 4th of July -- A pattern change is possible in early July, most likely after the 4th with more persistent warmth possibly taking hold across the upper Midwest.  We shall see...



























Weather Synopsis

Same weather different day.  Mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies across the Northland today with isolated to scattered rain showers affecting parts of the area, some get wet, others not so much, this is very typical with the type of weather pattern we're in.  Highs today were in the 50s and 60s which is 10-20 degrees below normal for June 24th.

Tonight and Sunday will feature more mostly cloudy skies with some breaks in the clouds at times.  Scattered showers will also continue through Sunday evening, might be a thunderstorm or two as well especially Sunday afternoon but instability looks pretty low with CAPE of only 100-300 j/kg.  Lows tonight in the 40s and 50s with highs Sunday only in the 50s and 60s.

Monday will feature slightly warmer temperatures but there is still a risk for a few showers or isolated thunderstorms from late morning through late afternoon -- Highs Monday in the 60s to around 70 degrees.

Tuesday looks like one of the nicer days will have through late next week.  No rain is expected Tuesday, SW winds will become a little gusty with highs getting into the 70s which is normal for late June.

Note:  Late Tuesday night but more so Wednesday will find the next weather system affecting our area with occasional showers with perhaps a few thunderstorms as well.

Note:  7th coolest high temperature on record today, June 24 at International Falls, Minnesota.  See list below.

1)  58 F in 1916
2)  59 F in 1958
3)  60 F in 1948
4)  61 F 2004
5)  63 F in 1967
6)  64 F in 1996, 1956 and 1908
7)  65 F in 2017, 1971 and 1922

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy.  Scattered showers.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday...  Cool.  Considerable cloudiness.  Occasional rain.  High 57 to 62.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 65 to 70.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  73
Low:   52

Sunrise Sunday:  5:16 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:    9:07 PM CDT

Tim


Thursday, June 22, 2017

Cooler temperatures through Sunday with spotty showers at times

/Issued 6:08 PM CDT, Thursday, June 22, 2017/

Source:  https://www.weatherbell.com/

This month is still running above average in the temperature department over all of the northern Plains, upper Midwest and western Great Lakes.  Cooler temperatures the next few days will likely drop the average monthly temp a little bit, but will just have to wait and see if it'll be enough to tilt this month into the below average temperature category.

















Here's the setup through Sunday, June 25, 2017.

Note:  There is still a chance for a top 5 coldest high temperature on record at International Falls, Minnesota especially Friday or Saturday (23rd-24th)
















Source:  http://www.weather.gov/fgf/

Radar loop from Wednesday evening's round of strong to severe thunderstorms that affected parts of northwest and west central Minnesota.















Source:  http://www.weather.gov/fgf/

The image below shows the hail tracks from late Wednesday afternoon-evening, June 21, 2017.  The darker colors on the map represent larger hail compared to the light blue colors.

















Local Storm Reports from June 21, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

*10:07 PM CDT:  HAIL.  0.50 inch.  Nashwauk, MN 1 S (Itasca County)

*9:42 PM CDT:  HAIL.  0.75 inch.  Breezy Point, MN (Crow Wing County)

Rainfall reports from June 21-22, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Note:  Totals listed below are from 7 AM Wednesday through 7 AM Thursday

Babbitt, MN:  0.60 in
Hibbing, MN:  0.44 in
Embarrass, MN:  0.40 in
Cass Lake, MN:  0.35 in
Grand Marais, MN:  0.22 in
Celina, MN 2 E:  0.17 in
Cook, MN:  0.16 in
Ely, MN 25 E:  0.12 in
Grand Rapids, MN 12 N:  0.10 in
Cotton, MN:  0.08 in
Orr, MN 3 E:  0.04 in
Island Lake, MN 4 E:  0.02 in
Webster, WI 9 SE:  0.02 in
International Falls, MN:  0.02 in
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.01 in

Weather Synopsis

Mild temperatures today with highs mainly in the 70s while a few locations near Lake Superior were close to 80 degrees late this afternoon thanks to a gusty SW wind.  Mostly cloudy skies earlier in the day gave way to a mix of sun/clouds from west-east during the afternoon hours.  A few showers affected far southern areas of the Northland this morning, and now we're seeing a few spotty showers develop late this afternoon in parts of northern Minnesota.

The forecast through Sunday won't be changing a whole lot thanks to a NW flow aloft which will result in cold air advection which begins late tonight and continues through the weekend -- 850mb temperatures are forecast to bottom out in the +2 to +6 C range Friday, Saturday and Sunday which is chilly for this time of year, thankfully surface temps will be a bit warmer as daytime highs will be in the 60s but some locations in far northern Minnesota could remain in the 50s especially on Saturday, these forecasted high temps will be 10 to around 20 degrees below average for late June.

Embedded in the NW flow will be a couple of upper level disturbances which will pass through the area from time to time, these disturbances will likely produce scattered coverage showers this evening, Friday, Saturday and again on Sunday.  These showers should be most numerous during the afternoon-early evening hours.  Spotty thunderstorms are also possible over the weekend thanks to the cold mid level temps of around -25 C along with fairly steep mid level lapse rates of around 6.0-7.0 c/km.  Note:  Most of the storms that develop should be on the weak side but a brief stronger storm could develop which could contain some small hail or gusty winds this weekend.

Low temperatures tonight, Friday night and Saturday night are expected to be in the 40s and 50s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Isolated showers possible mainly before midnight.  Low 52 to 57.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday...  Breezy and cooler.  Considerable cloudiness (Some sun at times) A few showers possible.  High 65 to 70.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  73
Low:   52

Sunrise Friday:  5:15 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim




Wednesday, June 21, 2017

30s in parts of northern MN early this morning (5th coldest low temp on record at International Falls, MN this morning, June 21) Risk for scattered showers/t-storms tonight

/Issued 6:13 PM CDT, Wednesday, June 21, 2017/












Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/

Tonight's thunderstorm outlook














































Source:  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

18z 3km NAM
















Low temperature reports from this morning, June 21, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Brimson, MN:  34 F
Embarrass, MN:  34 F
Celina, MN 2 E:  37 F
Crane Lake, MN:  37 F
International Falls, MN:  38 F
Hibbing, MN:  38 F
Babbitt, MN:  38 F
Orr, MN 3 E:  38 F
Cook, MN:  39 F

Note:  Low temperature of 38 degrees this morning (June 21, 2017) at International Falls, Minnesota is the 5th coldest low temperature on record on the 21st of June -- The record low temperature for today's date (6/21) is 33 degrees set in 1992.

Weather Synopsis

A chilly start to the day with early morning lows in the 40s with 30s up north while near Lake Superior temperatures were milder (50s)

Temperatures warmed up nicely this afternoon with readings in the 70s with a few locations near 80 degrees at 5 PM (Brainerd, MN and Siren, WI)  Cooler 60s were found near Lake Superior thanks to a lake breeze today, and also across parts of northern Minnesota where some showers have been occurring this afternoon under mostly cloudy skies.  Elsewhere in the Northland it was dry today under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies.

A strong area of low pressure over eastern Saskatchewan Province this afternoon will move across central Manitoba Province Thursday, then will see this low move into eastern Canada by Friday.  A warm front and cold front attached to this low will move through the Northland tonight and early Thursday morning.  The amount of low level moisture ahead of this system isn't overly impressive as dew points this afternoon were generally in the mid 50s to low 60s with PWATS of 1.10"-1.30" -- This deeper moisture will advect into the Northland this evening as a S-SW low level jet strengthens to 30-40 knots.  Instability is also forecast to increase this evening as elevated CAPE climbs to between 500-1500 j/kg with the higher values expected to remain over western-southern portions of the Northland.  Will likely see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across parts of the area tonight with the greatest potential for strong to severe thunderstorms remaining along and west of a line from near International Falls to Mille Lacs Lake.  Note:  The amount of wind shear is quite impressive with tonight's setup with meso-analysis at 5 PM showing 50-60 knots of 0-6 km shear over our area while strong mid and upper level winds push east out of the northern Plains (50-70 knots at 500mb, and >80 knots in the upper levels)  The limiting factor for a more widespread severe weather event tonight is the lack of real deep moisture.

Lows tonight under partly to mostly cloudy skies will be in the 50s to lower 60s.

Thursday will find tonight's frontal boundaries pushing off to the south/east while a wave of low pressure rides along the southward advancing cold front (moving from western Nebraska toward far northeast Iowa to northern Lake Huron between Thursday morning and Friday morning -- There is a chance that a complex of showers and thunderstorms develops over the south half of Minnesota Thursday morning and the northern edge of this complex could affect southern areas of the Northland where some showers could occur Thursday morning.  Northern Minnesota is forecast to have more sun tomorrow compared to southern areas.  Highs will range from the 70s to near 80 degrees up north with 60s and 70s farther south due to the expected cloud cover.

A secondary trough is expected to sweep down into the Northland Thursday night and a few showers or thunderstorms could develop as that boundary arrives late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.

We're looking at a cool weekend with clouds, some sun along with a chance for scattered mainly afternoon/evening showers/isolated thunderstorms as a new upper level low/trough sets up to our north with NW flow and cold air aloft occurring across the Northland.  Daytime highs are forecast to be in the 50s and 60s Friday, Saturday and Sunday which will be around 10-20 degrees below average for this time of year.

Note:  There is a chance that International Falls, Minnesota could have a top 3 coldest HIGH temperature on record on June 23, 24, and 25 (Friday through Sunday)  See stats below.

June 23:

Coldest:  57 degrees (1996)
2nd coldest:  58 degrees (1917)
3rd coldest:  59 degrees (2004)

June 24:

Coldest:  58 degrees (1916)
2nd coldest:  59 degrees (1958)
3rd coldest:  60 degrees (1948)

June 25:

Coldest:  58 degrees (1898)
2nd coldest:  59 degrees in 2004 and 1985
3rd coldest:  61 degrees in 1992 and 1970

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  A few showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 54 to 59.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph becoming southwest overnight.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy but some sunshine possible at times.  High 70 to 75.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  73
Low:   51

Sunrise Thursday:  5:15 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   9:06 PM CDT

Tim



Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Cool but dry tonight; Sun/cloud mix with passing showers Wednesday; Highs well into the 70s Thursday

/Issued 5:49 PM CDT, Tuesday, June 20, 2017/

Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/













Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

18z NAM Nest model.  This model shows some showers affecting parts of central/eastern Minnesota and west central/north central Wisconsin Wednesday morning/early afternoon, and then this model develops some convection late Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours as scattered thunderstorms erupt over north central/east central portions of Minnesota with movement toward the east.
















Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com/

12z NSSL WRF-ARW model

This model shows most of the showers on Wednesday staying across northern sections of Minnesota with scattered strong thunderstorms developing later in the afternoon over eastern North Dakota/western Minnesota with movement of those storms toward the south and east.  Note:  This model run goes through 7 PM Wednesday.

















Update:  Thanks to a late afternoon rise in temperatures yesterday, International Falls, Minnesota had their 6th coldest high temperature on record on June 19th, not the second coldest.  The high temp yesterday, June 19, 2017 was 63 F which tied with 2011 for 6th coldest high temperature on record on the 19th of June.

Weather Synopsis

Another day featuring a mix of sun/clouds.  Early morning scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms as a strong disturbance tracked SE through the upper Midwest, the rest of today has been mainly dry although a few spotty showers did develop this afternoon in far northeast Minnesota.  Highs today below average in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees, not record setting cold but still a good 5-10 degrees below normal for late June.

A cool but dry night ahead as high pressure moves overhead -- Expect partly to at times mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 40s and 50s, maybe a few 30s in the traditional cold spots up north if skies can clear enough.

High pressure shifts off to the east Wednesday which allows a southerly flow to develop as low pressure approaches from the west -- A warm front and cold front connected to that low will move through the Northland Wednesday night.  Warm air advection will probably generate scattered showers tomorrow under partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies.  Computer models show an increase in elevated instability Wednesday night, and this combined with slightly more lift provided by the approaching fronts should lead to some showers and thunderstorms in our area -- A few of the storms could be on the strong side Wednesday evening mainly over western portions of the Northland (Along and west of a line from International Falls to Lake Mille Lacs line) Gusty winds and hail are the main threats if stronger storms develop.

Highs Wednesday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Wednesday night in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Low pressure will be centered to to our north Thursday with a trough pushing southeast across the area later in the day, this feature could help to pop a few showers or thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon or Thursday night.  Highs Thursday will be in the 70s.

Unfortunately the period from Friday through Sunday looks to be dominated by another upper level low pressure system which will set up near Hudson Bay Canada -- This will lead to clouds and the potential for afternoon/evening spotty showers across the Northland Friday, Saturday and Sunday.  NW flow aloft will also occur which means below average temperatures this weekend.  Daytime highs will likely be in the 60s to around 70 degrees with lows mainly in the 50s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph becoming variable.

.Wednesday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers possible.  High 67 to 72.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday night...  Mostly cloudy.  A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm.  Low 56 to 61.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  72
Low:   51

Sunrise Wednesday:  5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   9:06 PM CDT

Tim

Monday, June 19, 2017

Lightning fatality stats in this post. Second coldest high temperature on record today (6/19/2017) at International Falls, MN; Scattered showers tonight; 60s to ~70 Tue; Could be close to 80 degrees Thursday

/Issued 5:00 PM CDT, Monday, June 19, 2017/

Source:  http://lightningsafetycouncil.org

The map below shows the number of lightning fatalities last year in each state.

Wisconsin had 1 lightning fatality in 2016 while in Minnesota there were zero lightning fatalities last year.















Source:  http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov

From 2006-2016:  277 males and 75 females were killed by lightning in the U.S.
















2016 Lightning Fatality Demographics
Source:  http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov

*38 lightning fatalities (76% were males, 24% females)
*Age range of the most lightning fatalities 20 to 29 years old
*Day of the week that had the most lightning fatalities -- Fridays (32%)

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Three disturbances showing up on water vapor satellite imagery today.  The one that will affect us later tonight is currently moving into southwest Manitoba and will dive SE through the night.  The disturbance over southern Wisconsin has been producing stronger thunderstorms today while the system to our NE over northeast Ontario Province sits and spins in that general area.
















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Radar loop ending at 4:55 PM CDT today (June 19, 2017)
















Weather Synopsis

NW flow aloft continued today with low pressure just east of Hudson Bay Canada with high pressure over southwest Canada -- Daytime heating, some cold air aloft and lingering moisture across the area led to another day with a few pop up showers under mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies.  Highs today ranged from the mid to upper 50s in far northern Minnesota to the 60s near Lake Superior, east central Minnesota and in all of northwest Wisconsin.

A strong disturbance currently moving into southwest Manitoba Province late this afternoon will continue to dive SE, moving through Minnesota later tonight.  This system will bring some showers and isolated thunderstorms to parts of the Northland from late this evening into early Tuesday morning.  There will also be a few showers generated by daytime heating that will carry over into the early evening hours -- Partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight with lows ranging from the mid 40s in the cool spots up north to the 50s elsewhere.

High pressure builds into the upper Midwest Tuesday resulting in a mix of sun/clouds.  Still can't rule out a few spotty showers tomorrow but coverage should be a lot less compared to the past few days.  Highs Tuesday in the 60s to lower 70s.

The next chance for showers will be on Wednesday as low pressure along with a warm front and cold front move east out of the northern Plains -- Elevated instability will increase a bit especially Wednesday night and this is when we could have a few thunderstorms along with the rain showers but at the moment this doesn't look like a favorable setup for a lot of thunderstorms up in our area.

Note:  The high temperature so far today at International Falls, Minnesota (59 degrees) if this holds, then this will tie with 1967 for second coldest high temperature on record for June 19th.  The coldest high temp on record for June 19 is 58 degrees set in 1969, 1949 and 1926.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming southwest around 10 mph late.

.Tuesday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A shower is possible.  High 65 to 70.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  72
Low:   51

Sunrise Tuesday:  5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   9:06 PM CDT

Tim