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Sunday, January 22, 2017

A dangerous afternoon-evening ahead in parts of the southeast U.S.; Severe weather and tornado outbreak likely

/Issued 11:07 AM CST, Sunday, January 22, 2017/

Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

According to @AriWeather this is the first High Risk for Georgia since 2009; And for Florida the first high risk since the Storm Prediction Center started issuing these categorical outlooks.














Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/














Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

More information at this link http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0112.html
















Late morning water vapor satellite image; Mesoanalysis.  Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/

A dangerous setup in place for a severe weather/tornado outbreak through this evening in parts of the southeast U.S.

Upper level winds ~140 knots punching in from Texas; Mid level winds ~100 knots spreading NE out of the Gulf of Mexico; Another pocket of strong winds aloft (~120 knots over north Georgia) Strengthening low level jet 40-60 knots from the south -- All this combined with a deepening surface low, a strong upper low, and a warm front spells big time trouble through this evening.
















Source:  http://weather.graphics/

15z HRRR model valid for the mid-late afternoon hours of today, graphic from Weatherbell.
















Tim

Saturday, January 21, 2017

Around 20 tornadoes reported so far today in parts of the southeast U.S. with more severe weather through Sunday. Mild and gloomy weather in the Northland through Monday

/Issued 6:12 PM CST, Saturday, January 21, 2017/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/
















Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Moderate, Enhanced and Slight risks for severe thunderstorms tonight in the southeast U.S.














Red boxes=Tornado watches -- Additional watches will likely be issued through the night.  Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/















Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Enhanced and Slight risks for severe thunderstorms on Sunday from North Carolina to eastern Alabama to Florida.














Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Storm reports map for January 21, 2017

Red dots=Tornado reports
Blue dots=Wind reports
Green dots=Hail reports















Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Storm reports map for January 20, 2017

Red dots=Tornado reports
Blue dots=Wind reports
Green dots=Hail reports















No changes to the map I made on Friday, but there are major disagreements in the computer models with the NAM being much further to the south with the surface low for next Tuesday and Wednesday which would mean that most of the snow would remain over far southern Minnesota or in Iowa.  Stay tuned.
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/




















Sunday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/




















Note:  Record warm low temperature at Duluth, Minnesota on January 20, 2017.

New record:  33 degrees
Old record:  31 degrees set in 1919

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

More of the same.  Unseasonably mild with fog and drizzle.  Highs today were in the 30s.

Low pressure and an upper level trough will linger over the northern Plains, upper Midwest and western Great Lakes through Monday.  Expect areas of fog and some drizzle into Monday with some improvements possible from time to time but overall more gloomy weather the next few days.  It will remain mild though with temperatures generally in the 30s with a few locations possibly reaching 40 degrees Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon.

Normal temperatures at Duluth for Sunday

High:  19
Low:     1

Sunrise Sunday:  7:44 AM CST
Sunset Sunday:   4:58 PM CST

Tim


Friday, January 20, 2017

A mild but dreary weekend ahead - Light rain, drizzle, fog (Some wet snow/freezing rain also possible)

/Issued 5:33 PM CST, Friday, January 20, 2017/

Radar loop through 5:15 PM CST.  Source:  http://www.intellicast.com/

Green=Rain
Blue=Snow

Note:  More rain will be developing late tonight-Saturday morning in southern Minnesota, this next wave of rain will then lift north into the Twin Ports sometime late Saturday morning or during the afternoon hours.














Heads up for next Tuesday and Wednesday, January 24-25.

Red line on map=Forecast storm track as of Friday afternoon.

Note:  The track of this low, and the area of greatest potential for 4" snowfall totals could shift further north or south in coming days.  Stay tuned.
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/




















Saturday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/




















Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

*Today is the 5th day in a row with a high temperature of at least 32 degrees.

*8 days in a row with no snow (At least a trace of accumulation)  This is the longest streak this winter with no snow (January 12th-19th) This streak ended today with a trace of snow reported at the Duluth Airport.  By the way the previous longest stretch with no snowfall was only 2 days back on December 18th-19th.

*Two records were broken on Thursday, January 19th, 2017.  Record high temperature of 45 degrees, the old record was 44 degrees set in 1900.  Also a record warm low temperature of 31 degrees, the old record was 28 degrees set in 1988.

Here's a link to Minnesota road conditions http://lb.511mn.org/mnlb/winterdriving/routeselect.jsf

Here's a link to Wisconsin road conditions http://www.511wi.gov/web/traffic/winterroadconditions

Weather Synopsis:

Areas of freezing rain developed in parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this morning which resulted in some icy roads and hazardous driving conditions.  By this afternoon the majority of the precipitation had switched over to plain rain and drizzle but pockets of wet snow may have mixed in with the rain in a few areas.  Highs today were in the 30s so another day featuring well above average high temperatures.

A mild but dreary weekend ahead in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with occasional rain and drizzle.  Fog will also be an issue with thick fog likely at times.

An upper level trough will cover the northern Plains and upper Midwest through Sunday while low pressure lifts slowly N/NE into the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes by Sunday.  Enough lift generated by the trough and surface low will lead to a couple waves of precipitation which will pass through the Northland over the weekend.

Surface temperatures are forecast to remain warm enough to produce mainly liquid precipitation types, but pockets of near freezing surface temperatures are possible at times which could lead to scattered areas of icing due to freezing rain/freezing drizzle -- there could also be a few bursts of a rain/snow mix or a changeover to wet snow through Sunday morning.

Any snow or ice accumulation is forecast to remain on the light side through Sunday but only a light glaze of ice can cause very hazardous driving conditions (Similar to what occurred Friday morning)

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Fog and drizzle with light rain at times.  Some wet snow, freezing rain or freezing drizzle also possible especially on top of the hill.  Low 31 to 33.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Fog and drizzle with light rain at times.  Some wet snow is also possible.  High 33 to 36.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  19
Low:     1

Sunrise Saturday:  7:45 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   4:56 PM CST

Tim


Thursday, January 19, 2017

Record warmth today at Duluth and International Falls, Minnesota. Fog develops tonight; Rain and wet snow on the way for Friday

/Issued 4:54 PM CST, Thursday, January 19, 2017/

*Record high temperature at Duluth, Minnesota today, January 19th, 2017

New record:  45 degrees
Old record:  44 degrees set in 1900

*Record high temperature tied at International Falls, Minnesota today, January 19th, 2017

High temperature 40 degrees - ties the record from 1908.

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/




















Friday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/




















Weather Synopsis:

Very warm temperatures over the Northland today with many locations getting into the 40s, with a few locales like Superior and Ashland making a run at 50 degrees this afternoon!  The only 'cool' spot was around the Iron Range and over the Arrowhead where temperatures were in the 30s.  Haze was widespread again today, and low clouds and fog were a problem this morning but by this afternoon most of that had eroded leading to quite a bit of sunshine, however, pockets of fog and low clouds lingered over parts of northeast Minnesota especially around the Hibbing, Eveleth and Grand Marais areas.

*Were entering into a gloomier stretch of weather -- This will begin tonight and will likely continue through Sunday (Possibly longer) Temperatures, however, will remain unseasonably mild, especially the nighttime lows which will run ~30 degrees warmer than average while the daytime highs are forecast to be 15-25 degrees warmer than average through the weekend.

*An upper level trough will cover the Plains through Sunday while a few areas of low pressure lift N/NE through the northern Plains and upper Midwest -- Enough lift will be present thanks to the approaching upper trough and surface lows to generate a couple rounds of mostly light precipitation in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Precipitation will begin in southern areas late tonight and will spread north on Friday with additional rounds of light precipitation expected from Friday evening, Saturday into Sunday.

*Surface temperatures will for the most part remain warm enough to produce mainly light rain and drizzle, but there will be times where the surface temperature will be close to the freezing mark, and that is when there could be a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain/freezing drizzle.

*Ice and snow accumulations are forecast to remain on the light side through Sunday but it doesn't take a lot of ice to cause hazardous driving conditions, just a light glaze of ice will turn untreated surfaces into a skating rink!

*Low temperatures tonight will be in the 20s and 30s with temperatures Friday, Friday night and Saturday mainly in the 30s.

*I'm still keeping an eye on the system for next Tuesday-Wednesday (24th-25th) if it tracks far enough to the north, then it will bring a few inches of snow to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but if it stays on a more southern track then only a few flurries would affect our area with the accumulating snow down in southern portions of Minnesota.  Computer models are split right now with some taking the low more to the north while others keep the low further to the south.  Stay tuned.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Clear early with increasing cloudiness during the night.  Areas of fog developing.  Patchy drizzle also possible.  Low 30 to 33.  Wind south to southeast around 10 mph.

.Friday...  Light rain and drizzle with some fog.  Wet snow is also possible especially later in the day.  High 33 to 36.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  19
Low:     1

Sunrise Friday:  7:46 AM CST
Sunset Friday:   4:55 PM CST

Tim

Wednesday, January 18, 2017

Thaw continues in the Northland through early next week; Powerful storm with possible severe weather to hit the southeast U.S. this weekend

/Issued 5:06 PM CST, Wednesday, January 18, 2017/












Visible satellite image from earlier this afternoon - Nothing but sunshine over northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, and check out those temperatures at 1 PM today.  Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/




















Thursday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/




















Note:  Several cities in the Northland topped the 40 degree mark this afternoon, see the list below.  I'm sure there were other towns in the area not on this list that also hit 40 degrees today.

Bigfork
Grand Rapids
Longville
Pine River
Aitkin
Duluth Harbor
Hibbing
Two Harbors
Eveleth
Silver Bay
Superior
Ashland
Siren
Solon Springs

-The Duluth Airport made it to 40 degrees today, January 18th; 4 degrees shy of the record high temperature of 44 degrees which was set in 1891.  Today's 40 degree high temperature is the first since November 29th (42 degrees)

-International Falls was just 1 degree shy of the record high temperature for January 18th.  High today was 38 degrees, the record high is 39 degrees set in 1898.

Weather Synopsis:

Not everyone likes these winter thaws but I know at least some people do enjoy them! It was a very mild day in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s which is roughly 20 degrees warmer than average on this 18th day of January.  There were areas of clouds and fog earlier in the day but this afternoon featured nothing but sunshine along with more haze.

*Clear to partly cloudy skies for tonight with areas of fog possible.  Lows will mainly be in the 20s but some spots could dip into the teens.

*Another mild day on Thursday but clouds will be on the increase.  Highs ranging from the 30s to lower 40s with lows Thursday night probably not falling below 30 degrees which is unseasonably warm for this time of year (Around 25-30 degrees above average!)  Might be dealing with areas of fog and drizzle in parts of the area especially by Thursday night.

*Occasional drizzle and some fog will likely occur from Friday through Sunday but temperatures will remain on the 'warm' side.  Some light rain, wet snow or a wintry mix of precipitation is also possible in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this weekend thanks to a deep upper level trough which will cover the Plains while a few areas of low pressure stretch from the northern Plains toward the southeast U.S.  Note:  Not expecting heavy precipitation or widespread coverage in the area this weekend.

*Some snow remains possible over the Northland sometime between next Tuesday-Thursday, January 24-26.  Still doesn't look like a major snow event for our area but a few inches of snow are possible if this system tracks far enough to the north.  Stay tuned.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly clear and hazy.  Patchy fog possible.  Low 24 to 29.  Wind south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Increasing cloudiness.  High 35 to 40.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  19
Low:     1

Sunrise Thursday:  7:46 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   4:53 PM CST

Tim