Tuesday, July 7, 2015

July 7, 2015 Weather Report - Haze and smoke returns; 70s on Wednesday. Near record cold at International Falls, MN this morning

/Issued 7:47 PM CDT, Tuesday, July 7, 2015/

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service; National Digital Forecast Database.




















Wednesday's high temperature forecast.




















Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Date:  July 7, 2015

High pressure of 1020mb covered the Upper Midwest today.  Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies prevailed with very nice early July temperatures as highs topped out in the upper 60s to lower 70s which is about 5 degrees cooler than normal.  We got rid of the smoke and haze today, but a new area of smoke and haze is spreading in from the west early this evening.  Winds today were out of the south, west, or north at 5 to 15 mph.  Note:  Quite a chilly start to the day in parts of Northern Minnesota - here are some low temperatures that were reported from this morning:  International Falls, MN:  37 F.  Hibbing, MN:  39 F.  Bigfork, MN:  39 F.  Togo, MN:  39 F.

International Falls missed their record low temperature for July 7 by just 3 degrees today, actual low was 37 degrees, record is 34 degrees set in 1997.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (July 7)

An area of high pressure will move east through the Upper Midwest tonight.  Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected with lows in the 40s and 50s but 30s can't be ruled out in the traditional cold spots.  Light winds out of the south, west, or north.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (July 8)

Southwest wind develops as high pressure moves over the Central-Eastern Great Lakes.  A cold front moves slowly east/southeast through the Northern Plains and should move into Northwest Minnesota by Wednesday Night.  Partly cloudy to partly sunny skies on the way for Tomorrow and partly to mostly cloudy skies for Tomorrow Night.  Most of us will stay dry, but a few showers could affect Northwest parts of the area, or from Manitou and International Falls, southwest to Northome.  High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Wednesday Night generally in the 50s.  Southwest winds are expected this period at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Thursday through Saturday (July 9-11)

Dry weather continues in the Northland on Thursday and Friday and possibly even into Saturday.  High temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s and 80s from Thursday through Saturday with lows in the 50s and 60s for Thursday Night and Friday Night.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Low to Medium.

(July 12-17)

The computer models are showing some different trends today compared to what they had been showing in previous days.  Model runs today show a more amplified pattern allowing high pressure to build down from Northern Ontario, if this does happen then most of the Northland will probably stay dry on Sunday (12th)  The main area where showers and thunderstorms would occur this weekend would be from the Northern Plains into Western-Southern sections of Minnesota.  A chance for showers or thunderstorms would then move into our area at times during the 13th-17th time frame.  Near to above average temperatures are forecast from the 12th-17th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Haze and smoke.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind southwest around 10 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 70 to 75.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 75 to 80.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 58 to 63.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 79 to 84.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 76 to 81.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  76
Low:   55

Sunrise Wednesday:  5:23 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   9:04 PM CDT

Tim

Monday, July 6, 2015

July 6, 2015 Weather Report: Rainfall totals of 1-3" in parts of the Northland Sunday Night and Today; Storm and rainfall reports included in this post. Cool temperatures with some clouds Tonight; 60s and 70s on the way for Tuesday

/Issued 7:32 PM CDT, Monday, July 5, 2015/

Storm reports map for July 5, 2015.  Fairly active day with numerous reports of large hail and damaging winds across Northern Minnesota on Sunday, text reports below.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Blue dots=Damaging wind reports
Green dots=Large hail reports
Red dots=Tornado reports














Local Storm Reports for July 5, 2015
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*6:05 PM CDT:  1.25" HAIL.  8 W of Spring Lake, MN (Itasca County)

*6:17 PM CDT:  1.25" HAIL.  10 E of Squaw Lake, MN (Itasca County)

*5:55 PM CDT:  1.00" HAIL.  7 W of Squaw Lake, MN (Itasca County)

*6:00 PM CDT:  0.88" HAIL.  6 E of Alvwood, MN (Itasca County)

*6:00 PM CDT:  1.25" HAIL.  3 NW of Squaw Lake, MN (Itasca County)

*6:00 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  70 MPH.  3 NW of Squaw Lake, MN (Itasca County)

*6:25 PM CDT:  1.75" HAIL.  2 N of Deer River, MN (Itasca County)

*6:31 PM CDT:  1.75" HAIL.  Bowstring, MN (Itasca County)

*7:53 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Buck Lake, MN (Itasca County)  4-5" diameter trees down.

*8:27 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Pengilly, MN (Itasca County)  A tree down blocking Highway 65.

*10:07 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  48 MPH.  Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County)

*10:07 PM CDT:  0.25" HAIL.  Crosby, MN (Crow Wing County)

*10:14 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  39 MPH.  McGregor, MN (Aitkin County)

*7:28 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  1 SE of Balsam Lake, MN (Itasca County)  Power went out and lines came down on deck

*7:28 PM CDT:  1.00" HAIL.  2 SSW of Balsam Lake, MN (Itasca County)  Hailed for about 15 minutes starting just before 7:30 PM.  Largest was quarter size.

*8:00 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  2 SSW of Balsam Lake, MN (Itasca County)  Numerous trees down on property.  Wind lasted for about 30 minutes.  Power was out from 8 PM until early morning.

*8:32 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  5 WNW of Bear Head Lake St.  (St. Louis County)  Several broken and uprooted trees blocking US 169 along a 300-400 yard area.

*10:44 PM CDT:  MARINE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  32 MPH.  5 SE of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)

*10:42 PM CDT:  MARINE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  27 MPH.  8 SE of French River, MN.

Rainfall map from 7 AM Sunday through 7 AM Monday, July 5-6, 2015.  Source, WSI.













Rainfall report for July 5-6, 2015
Source:  MesoWest

Grand Rapids, MN:  0.31"
Hill City, MN:  0.49"
Pine River, MN:  0.42"
Brainerd, MN:  0.82"
Aitkin, MN:  1.12"

McGregor, MN:  1.82"

Moose Lake, MN:  2.12"
Hinckley, MN:  3.72"
Cloquet, MN:  2.10"

Saginaw, MN:  1.19"
Duluth, MN (Airport)  1.87"
Skibo, MN:  0.50"

Isabella, MN:  0.88"
Orr, MN:  0.53"
Grand Marais, MN (Airport)  0.93"
Silver Bay, MN:  0.60"

Superior, WI:  1.81"
Solon Springs, WI:  1.13"

Minong, WI:  2.04"
Siren, WI:  2.06"
Hayward, WI:  2.32"
Washburn, WI:  1.37"

Ashland, WI:  1.24"
Barnes, WI:  0.93"


Glidden, WI:  1.60"
Phillips, WI:  1.24"

Grand Portage, MN:  0.41"

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota - Airport location

June 28-July 4, 2015

High temperatures:

6/28:  76F/2 degrees above normal
6/29:  78F/4 degrees above normal
6/30:  63F/12 degrees below normal
7/1:  72F/3 degrees below normal
7/2:  77F/2 degrees above normal
7/3:  81F/6 degrees above normal
7/4:  76F/1 degree above normal

Low temperatures:

6/28:  61F/8 degrees above normal
6/29:  59F/6 degrees above normal
6/30:  49F/4 degrees below normal
7/1:  48F/6 degrees below normal
7/2:  53F/1 degree below normal
7/3:  59F/5 degrees above normal
7/4:  58F/4 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.72"
Normal:  1.06"

Departure:  -0.34" below normal

Last week's temperature departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.



















Last week's precipitation departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.




















Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Date:  July 6, 2015

Low pressure, cold front, and upper level disturbance which produced the widespread rain and thunderstorms in the Northland last night and rain this morning into mid-afternoon has finally pushed off to the east late this afternoon.  Skies ranged from partly sunny to mostly cloudy as of 5 PM with haze and smoke over parts of the Northland.  High temperatures today were generally in the 60s to around 70 degrees so a lot cooler compared to 24 hours ago, dew points have also dropped off quite a bit this afternoon with late day dews in the 40s and 50s.  Winds today were out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Tuesday Night (July 6-7)

High pressure will move east out of the Northern Plains, through the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes region during this period.  Dry weather is expected through Tuesday Night.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight, partly to mostly sunny Tuesday, and partly cloudy skies Tuesday Night.  Cool temperatures tonight as lows drop into the 40s and 50s.  Highs on Tuesday in the 60s to lower 70s with lows Tuesday Night in the 40s and 50s.  North or northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph tonight and tomorrow with winds turning to the south Tuesday Night at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Wednesday through Friday (July 8-10)

Isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible in Western-Northern areas in Minnesota on Wednesday and Thursday but overall I think most of the Northland stays dry.  High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s on Wednesday warming to the 70s and possibly even a few 80s on Thursday and Friday.  Lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

(July 11-16)

There is a chance for some showers or thunderstorms this weekend (11th-12) as a low pressure system affects the Upper Midwest.  Another risk for some showers or thunderstorms sometime around the 15th-16th the way it looks now.  Near to above average temperatures are expected from the 11th-16th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 48 to 53.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 66 to 71.  Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind becoming south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 70 to 75.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 75 to 80.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 77 to 82.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  76
Low:   55

Sunrise Tuesday:  5:22 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   9:05 PM CDT

Tim






Sunday, July 5, 2015

July 5, 2015 Weather Report - Muggy with occasional showers and t-storms Tonight (Heavy rain and isolated severe storms possible) Cooler on Monday with lingering rain, clearing later in the day

/Issued 7:17 PM CDT, Sunday, July 5, 2015/

Area outlined in blue on the map below is under a severe thunderstorm watch until 11 PM CDT tonight.  This watch includes the city of Duluth.  Source, Storm Prediction Center; NWS.

Primary threats:

-Isolated very large hail events to 2" in diameter possible.
-Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible.


















Radar image from 7:12 PM CDT this evening.  Showers and thunderstorms lined up across North Central Minnesota into far Northeast Minnesota with movement toward the east and slightly south of east.












There's still a slight risk for rainfall to exceed flash flood guidance through Monday Morning (Green area on the map)  Source, Weather Prediction Center.
















Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Date:  July 5, 2015

A very warm and muggy end to the 4th of July holiday weekend.  Early evening surface map has a cold front extending from West Central through North Central Minnesota.  High temperatures were in the 80s today with dew points running in the 60s to around 70 degrees.  Winds were out of the south at 10 to 20 mph.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been affecting parts of North Central Minnesota today with severe thunderstorm development underway as of late Afternoon in Itasca County Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

Tonight and Monday (July 5-6)

A fairly strong cold front will be tracking east/southeast through the Northland tonight and monday, this boundary should exit to the east by Monday afternoon.  Showers and thunderstorms will occur in our area tonight with rain and isolated thunderstorms on Monday -- The rain should end from west to east during the day Monday but Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota will likely be dealing with the rain the longest, in fact the potential for rain could linger into Monday Afternoon in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota while it dries out in North Central Minnesota.

Heavy rain is a distinct possibility tonight and monday with dew points in the 60s while PWATS range from around 1.40-2.00".  Localized flooding could become an issue especially if thunderstorms start to move over the same location for a few hours.

A few of the thunderstorms could be strong to severe tonight with the greatest chance for severe thunderstorms occurring this evening and mainly over North Central Minnesota.  Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats from storms tonight.

There is a lot of energy in place over most of the Northland early this evening with meso-analysis showing CAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -2 to -6C.  It should remain somewhat unstable well into the night supporting thunderstorm development, but as is usually the case the greatest instability will occur before Midnight.

Effective Bulk Shear and 0-6 KM Shear is generally in the 25-35 knot range this evening, and this is enough for supercell structures if storms can organize enough.  Note:  The severe warned storm that has been moving E-SE through parts of Central Itasca County this evening is a classic looking supercell thunderstorm on radar imagery with quite a few reports of large damaging hail through 7 PM CDT.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees with highs on Monday in the 60s and 70s.  Winds out of the south or northwest tonight, and out of the north, west, or south on Monday at 10 to 20 mph.

Monday Night (July 6)

Dry for the entire area as high pressure builds east out of the Northern Plains.  Clear to partly cloudy skies with lows in the 40s and 50s.

Looking ahead:

Generally dry Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 60s and 70s on Tuesday and mainly in the 70s on Wednesday.  Warmer and turning more humid later this week and we could be dealing with some shower and thunderstorm activity at times from Thursday through Sunday (July 9-12)

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

Event:  *SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH* for Duluth
Timing:  Until 11 PM CDT Tonight

.Tonight...  Muggy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Heavy rain is possible.  A few storms could be severe This Evening.  Low 62 to 67.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Occasional rain especially before mid-Afternoon.  Mostly cloudy with some clearing possible later in the day.  Cooler.  High 67 to 72.  Wind north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday Night...  Clear to partly cloudy.  Cooler.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 67 to 72.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 50 to 55.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 70 to 75.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 53 to 58.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 75 to 80.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  76
Low:   55

Sunrise Monday:  5:22 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   9:05 PM CDT

Tim






July 5, 2015 Weather Update

/Issued 12:40 PM CDT, Sunday, July 5, 2015/

Upper Midwest radar from 12:35 PM this afternoon - Seeing an area of showers and thunderstorms affecting Northeast North Dakota and Northwest Minnesota as of 12 PM with movement of this activity to the east.  There has been a weakening trend recently with these storms and no warnings are in effect as of 12:41 PM.  Source, College of Dupage
















Today's severe weather outlook.  Source, WSI; Storm Prediction Center.

Orange=Enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms (3)
Yellow=Slight risk for severe thunderstorms (2)
Light green=Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms (1)
Dark green=Non-severe thunderstorms














Surface analysis late this morning.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Low pressure centers (Red L's on the map) were located in far Northeast North Dakota and in Western South Dakota.  A cold front stretched from Southern Manitoba to Western South Dakota (Blue line on the map)
















A warm, moist, and unstable environment will be found along and ahead of the surface low and cold front today and tonight.  Here in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin CAPE values are forecast to range from around 1000-1500 j/kg with pockets of higher CAPE approaching 2000-2500 j/kg possible late this afternoon/evening mainly over the Brainerd Lakes, Walker, Cass Lake, Grand Rapids corridor.  Lifted indices are forecast to range from around -2 to -7C in the Northland.

Mid level winds should generally be in the 25-35 knot range with stronger winds aloft approaching 110 knots remaining over or to the west/northwest of the Red River Valley region through tonight.  A low level jet is expected to increase to between 30-40 knots through tonight as the system currently in the Northern Plains moves east into the Upper Midwest.  The potential for supercell thunderstorm development is relatively low over our area but certainly can't rule out isolated supercell thunderstorms late this afternoon/early this evening over Western parts of the Northland.  More than likely will see storms pulse up and down spitting out gust fronts/shelf clouds.

Temperatures through early this evening will remain in the 80s over most of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with cooler temperatures close to Lake Superior and also in areas that get rain.

Dew points will remain in the 60s with some locations likely getting to around 70 degrees later in the day.

PWATS from 1.10-1.50" early this afternoon will increase to between 1.30-2.00" by this evening.

The current activity in Northwest Minnesota may do one of three things through the afternoon:

1)  It could continue to move east into Northern Minnesota and intensify as it moves over an area that has seen some sun, warmer temps, increased humidity and instability this morning.

2)  It could weaken or maintain its current intensity while tracking east through Northern Minnesota.

3)  An outflow boundary or two could develop on the southern edge of the precipitation in Northwest Minnesota - This OFB could then be an area where new thunderstorm development occurs later this afternoon-early evening from West Central into North Central Minnesota.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible in North Central, Northeast, and East Central Minnesota through this evening.  A few of these storms could become strong or severe with a potential for damaging wind and large hail.  Cloud to ground lightning and torrential rain will also occur with these storms.  The threat for showers and thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will continue tonight in the aforementioned areas, however, the potential for severe weather should decrease after this evening.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase tonight across Northwest Wisconsin with heavy rain possible.

Excessive rainfall outlook valid through 7 AM CDT Monday.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

The area outlined in green on the map have a slight chance for rainfall totals to exceed flash flood guidance.















Not much change between last night's model runs and this morning's model runs in rainfall amounts in the Northland.  Source, TropicalTidbits.com

12z NAM:  Rainfall totals through Monday PM.  Widespread 1-2" totals are possible in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with locally higher amounts in areas that get into a heavier zone of rain or that get repeated thunderstorm development.














12z GFS:  Rainfall totals through Monday PM.














Tim




Saturday, July 4, 2015

July 4, 2015 Weather Report - Warm and rather muggy on Sunday; Risk for showers/t-storms Sunday-Monday AM (Heavy rain and a few strong-severe storms possible Sunday/Sunday Night)

/Issued 6:50 PM CDT, Saturday, July 4, 2015/

There is a chance for heavy rain Sunday Evening into Monday in much of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Heavy rain could begin during the day Sunday in far Northern Minnesota.  Pretty good agreement between the 18z NAM and GFS models on expected rainfall totals by Monday but things could change during the next 24 hours.  Source, OWxData.com

18z NAM rainfall forecast ending at 7 PM CDT Monday.  See legend on the bottom.

















18z GFS rainfall forecast ending at 7 PM CDT Monday.

















No surprise with the predicted rainfall totals that portions of Minnesota are outlined in a Slight risk area for rainfall to exceed flash flood guidance for Sunday through Monday Morning (Green area on the map)  Source, Weather Prediction Center.















15z SREF calibrated severe thunderstorm probability forecast for Sunday Afternoon and Evening.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.
















Sunday's severe weather outlook.  Source, WSI.

Orange=Enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms (Category 3)
Yellow=Slight risk for severe thunderstorms (Category 2)
Light green=Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms (Category 1)
Dark green=Risk for non-severe thunderstorms














July 4, 2015 Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A nice 4th of July in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Sunny to partly cloudy skies prevailed with lingering haze and smoke.  Daytime highs maxed out in the 70s and 80s with 60s close to Lake Superior.  Dew points were mostly in the 50s to lower 60s so not too muggy.  Winds were out of the south or southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight:

Most of the Northland will remain dry but scattered showers and thunderstorms could begin to affect Northwest areas from International Falls, Northhome, Littlefork and Big Falls.  Locally heavy rain and occasional cloud to ground lightning strikes will be the main hazards should storms develop later tonight in far Northern Minnesota.  Low temperatures in the 50s and 60s with south or southeast winds at 10 to around 20 mph.  Enjoy the rest of your 4th of July and be safe!

Sunday and Sunday Night (July 5)

A cold front will sag slowly southeast into Western and Northern Minnesota during this period as low pressure heads into the Western High Plains and Northern Plains.  Forecast models show quite a bit of instability with CAPE of 1500-3000 j/kg along with Lifted Indices of -3 to -8C.  Note:  The greatest instability looks like it will setup over the Western portions of the Northland or from around the Brainerd Lakes to Grand Rapids corridor and points west-northwest from there.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across Northern Minnesota with showers and thunderstorms gradually developing or moving farther south/east into other parts of the Northland for Sunday Night.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday and Sunday Evening primarily in North Central Minnesota down through the Brainerd Lakes.  Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary threats along with dangerous cloud to ground lightning.

Will have a ton of moisture in place for a thunderstorm to tap into as dew points will rise into the 60s and even into the low 70s while PWATS increase to between 1.50-2.20".  This will set the stage for locally heavy rainfall with these thunderstorms.

High temperatures on Sunday are forecast to be in the 80s with lows Sunday Night in the 60s to lower 70s.  South, southwest, or east winds are expected at 10 to 20 mph.

Monday (July 6)

Low pressure and cold front will move slowly east out of the Northland.  Rain and a few thunderstorms will be possible until this system moves far enough to the east.  Rain chances should diminish from west to east by late morning or early afternoon on Monday the way it looks now.  Highs on Monday are forecast to be in the 60s and 70s.

Tim