Sunday, July 23, 2017

Cool tonight, gusty NE wind near Lake Superior (Partial clearing for some, areas of fog/low clouds for others) A bit nicer Monday afternoon

/Issued 3:55 PM CDT, Sunday, July 23, 2017/

Source:  https://www.weatherbell.com/
















Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

One of the big weather stories last week were the swaths of heavy, excessive rains that affected portions of the upper Midwest.  Hardest hit areas included southern Wisconsin, far southeast Minnesota, eastern Iowa, northern Illinois and northwest Indiana with 3-6" rain totals along with locally higher amounts.  The map below shows total rainfall accumulation from July 16-22, 2017.




















Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Precipitation departure map for the week of July 16, 2017.




















Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Temperature departure map for the week of July 16, 2017.




















Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

July 16-22, 2017

High temperatures

7/16:  67 F/-10 degrees below normal
7/17:  84 F/+7 degrees above normal
7/18:  76 F/-1 degree below normal
7/19:  77 F/Normal
7/20:  84 F/+7 degrees above normal
7/21:  78 F/+1 degree above normal
7/22:  72 F/-5 degrees below normal

Low temperatures

7/16:  48 F/-8 degrees below normal
7/17:  48 F/-8 degrees below normal
7/18:  56 F/Normal
7/19:  54 F/-2 degrees below normal
7/20:  57 F/+1 degree above normal
7/21:  59 F/+3 degrees above normal
7/22:  54 F/-2 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  1.85"
Normal:  0.82"
Departure:  +1.03" above normal

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

-Number of 80 degree days so far this month:  6 days (Average for July is 11 days)

-Number of 80 degree days so far this summer (June 1 - July 23) 10 days (Average for the summer season June 1 - August 31 is 23 days)

-Total rainfall since June 1st:  9.29 inches (+2.20 inches above normal)

-Total precipitation since January 1st:  20.43 inches (+4.42 inches above normal)

Note:  International Falls, Minnesota has had 15 days at or above 80 degrees so far this summer (June 1 - July 23)  Average for the summer season (June 1 - August 31) is 30 days

Note:  International Falls, Minnesota has had 12.62 inches of precipitation since January 1st (-0.62 inches below normal)

Weather Synopsis

Decreasing clouds this afternoon in northern Minnesota while it was still overcast farther south.  A few radar returns have been showing up this afternoon near Lake Superior, if anything is hitting the ground it's likely in the form of drizzle.  Highs today warmest where there's been some sun so far northern Minnesota made it into the 70s this afternoon while the rest of the area was stuck in the 60s which is ~15 degrees cooler than average for late July.

Northwest flow aloft covered the upper Midwest today with an upper low off to our east.  Moisture wrapping around that low has kept skies overcast except in far northern Minnesota where drier air has eroded the cloud cover this afternoon.

Will have clear to partly cloudy skies over the area tonight but areas of fog and low clouds are likely in parts of the Northland.  It'll be a cool night for some as high pressure builds over the region.  Lows will be in the 40s and 50s but can't rule out a few 30s in the typical cold spots.

Monday looks pleasant after the low clouds and fog burn off.  Highs are expected to be in the 70s, maybe a few locations out west around 80 degrees while it will be cooler near Lake Superior.

The next chance for some showers or thunderstorms comes Tuesday into early Wednesday morning as low pressure along with a few different frontal boundaries heads east out of the northern Plains.  Note:  Will have strong winds in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere but not real sure yet on where the best combination of instability, warm air and moisture will setup, so a little too early to say if will have any strong or severe thunderstorms here in the Northland, those chances could be higher in parts of western, central or southern Minnesota according to a few of the computer models as of today.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Areas of fog.  Some clearing possible at times.  Low 47 to 52.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.  Gusts to 20 mph this evening.

.Monday...  Low clouds or fog burning off giving way to mostly sunny skies by afternoon.  High 69 to 74.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  77
Low:   56

Sunrise Monday:  5:39 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   8:50 PM CDT

Tim

Saturday, July 22, 2017

Three tornadoes reported in northwest Minnesota Friday afternoon. Storm reports from around the Northland in this post

/Issued 8:57 PM CDT, Saturday, July 22, 2017/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu
















Source:  http://www.nws.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/index.html













Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/

Enhanced Infrared Satellite loop from Friday evening, July 21, 2017.  Multiple storm clusters affected portions of the upper Midwest Friday.












Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/

Cloud tops satellite image from Friday evening, July 21, 2017.  Pretty cool!  Thunderstorms up in our area were poking up to around 40,000-50,000 feet into the atmosphere last evening.




















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Here's how the storms looked on radar Friday evening, July 21, 2017.
















Local Storm Reports from July 21-22, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

*7:40 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  40 mph.  Lawler, MN 1 ESE (Aitkin County)

*7:35 PM CDT:  HAIL.  1.25 inch.  Hassman, MN 4 ENE (Aitkin County)  Half dollar sized hail.

*7:30 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  41 mph.  Rice Lake, MN 8 NNE (St. Louis County)

*7:30 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  McGregor, MN (Aitkin County)  Several trees reported down.

*7:24 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Fredenberg, MN 3 SW (St. Louis County)  20 inch diameter tree snapped at ground level while a 16 inch diameter tree snapped and landed on resident's roof.

*7:13 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  43 mph.  Swatara, MN (Aitkin County)

*7:12 PM CDT:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Fredenberg, MN 3 SW (St. Louis County)

*7:10 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Fredenberg, MN (St. Louis County)  Several large trees downed and a few uprooted.  Some of the trees fell on a home.

*7:10 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Lake Shore, MN 1 S (Cass County)  Power lines down across Abby Way near intersection with Interlachen road.

*7:09 PM CDT:  HAIL.  0.50 inch.  Fredenberg, MN 3 SW (St. Louis County)

*7:05 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Rice Lake, MN 1 N (St. Louis County)  Numerous trees down on roadway northwest of Arnold.

*6:54 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Hill City, MN (Aitkin County)  Several trees downed.

*6:30 PM CDT:  FLOOD.  Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County)  Multiple reports of flooding in Grand Rapids.  On 169 there is 4 to 5 inches of standing water and along Highway 38.

*6:29 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Schley, MN 4 WNW (Cass County)  Trees down on Tract 33 and 34, Spruce and all around Cass Lake.

*6:25 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Longville, MN (Cass County)  Large tree downed.

*6:11 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  55 mph.  Brevik, MN 1 S (Cass County)

*6:11 PM CDT:  HAIL.  0.50 inch.  Walker, MN 5 ESE (Cass County)  Estimated wind gust 40-45 mph.

*6:10 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  58 mph.  Schley, MN 3 W (Cass County)

*6:07 PM CDT:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Cohasset, MN (Itasca County)

*6:05 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Walker, MN 4 ESE (Cass County)  A couple of trees blown down.

*6:01 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  45 mph.  Cass Lake, MN (Cass County)

*5:47 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  45 mph.  Nashwauk, MN (Itasca County)

*5:45 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Cass Lake, MN 3 ENE (Cass County)  Several trees downed in Cass Lake, some trees uprooted.  Largest trees are 18 inches in diameter.

*5:43 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Calumet, MN (Itasca County)  2 foot diameter oak tree downed and fell onto a trailer.

===========================================================

*8:10 PM CDT July 22:  HAIL.  0.88 inch.  Winter, WI 6 N (Sawyer County)

*7:58 PM CDT July 22:  HAIL.  1.75 inch.  Winter, WI 4 NW (Sawyer County)  Golf Ball sized hail.

*6:10 PM CDT July 22:  HAIL.  0.50 inch.  Phillips, WI 9 W (Price County)

*5:11 PM CDT July 22:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Ely, MN 3 SSE (St. Louis County)

Rainfall reports from July 21, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Duluth, MN:  1.34 in
Hayward, WI:  1.16 in
Cohasset, MN 8 S:  1.14 in  Note:  Duration of event was 25 minutes
Island Lake, MN 4 E:  1.11 in
Shaw, MN 3 N:  1.00 in Note:  Duration of event was 20 minutes
Brainerd, MN:  0.96 in
Wright, MN 3 E:  0.94 in
Isle, MN 12 N:  0.87 in
Hibbing, MN:  0.83 in
Bruno, MN 4 S:  0.83 in
Webster, WI 9 SE:  0.53 in
Floodwood, MN:  0.51 in
Winter, WI:  0.40 in
Clam Lake, WI 4 W:  0.38 in
Ashland, WI:  0.30 in
Saxon, WI 1 WSW:  0.30 in
Embarrass, MN:  0.28 in
Butternut, WI:  0.23 in
Babbitt, MN:  0.18 in
Orr, MN 3 E:  0.12 in

*3 tornadoes reported in northwest Minnesota on July 22, 2017*
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/fgf/http://www.spc.noaa.gov

Tornado number one
8 miles west of Kelliher, Minnesota (Beltrami County)

-3:45 PM CDT -- Multiple brief touchdowns observed over a half minute period 8 miles west of Kelliher, Minnesota (Beltrami County)  Grain bins and other farm buildings damaged.

Tornado number two
10 miles west of Kelliher, Minnesota (Beltrami County)

-3:45 PM CDT -- This tornado tracked eastward with numerous intermittent touchdowns along a roughly 3 mile track along CR34 to around 7 miles west of Kelliher, Minnesota by 3:50 PM.

Tornado number three
4 miles south of Glyndon, Minnesota (Clay County)

-5:34 PM CDT -- A weak tornado was observed for about a minute over largely open farmland just north of I-94 in extreme southeast Glyndon Township.  Peak winds estimated to 75 mph.

Weather Synopsis

A warm day away from Lake Superior with highs today in the low to mid 80s along with dew points that were in the 60s so also kinda muggy.  A well defined lake breeze kept temperatures in the 60s near Lake Superior today with east winds gusting 15 to 20 mph.  Kind of a messy setup over the area today with the most organized system in the form of an upper low which has been moving east/southeast out of southern Manitoba Province today.  There is also a weak surface trough and also the lake breeze boundary over parts of the Northland today.  There's been plenty of sun today, but the amount of instability although sufficient for storm development, isn't terribly high, and the mid level lapse rates are also running a little lower than one would like to see for big storms.  The end result has been for spotty showers and thunderstorms to erupt mid to late this afternoon in parts of northeast Minnesota and also down around the Hayward Lakes area of northwest Wisconsin.  There is ample amounts of shear in place for storm organization, but thus far there's only been a couple of storms that have reached severe criteria, and those were over extreme northern St. Louis County up around the Boundary Waters Canoe Area, and just southeast of Hayward in northwest Wisconsin.

A few showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect parts of the Northland for the rest of tonight.  Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly before midnight in parts of northwest Wisconsin.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight with some fog possible.  Lows ranging from the lower 50s to lower 60s.

Upper level low which was along the Ontario-Minnesota border this evening will exit the Northland to the E/SE on Sunday but clouds and possibly a few showers will be possible on the backside of the surface and upper level low.  Highs Sunday ranging from the mid 70s to around 80 degrees except for 60s to around 70 degrees near Lake Superior as northeast winds continue.

Dry on Monday with high pressure over the upper Midwest -- Highs are expected to be in the 70s to around 80 with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Areas of low clouds and fog.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 51 to 56.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph near Lake Superior and variable around 10 mph inland.

.Sunday...  Areas of low clouds or fog mainly early.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A shower is possible.  High 67 to 72.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  Highs in the 70s.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  77
Low:   56

Sunrise Sunday:  5:38 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   8:51 PM CDT

Tim

Friday, July 21, 2017

Humid through Saturday with showers/t-storms possible at times (Risk of a few strong/severe storms through Saturday evening)

/Issued 4:50 PM CDT, Friday, July 21, 2017/

Yellow polygons=Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings as of 4:50 PM CDT.

Note:  Storms are moving toward the south/east but could start to drop more to the south following the axis of higher instability which is down near the Brainerd Lakes area late this afternoon.  Not as much instability farther east so it remains to be seen if these storms hold together the farther east they get.












Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov

Severe Thunderstorm Watch (Blue area on map) until 11 PM CDT tonight.


















Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/













Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/














































Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

18z NAM 500mb forecast valid for Saturday afternoon

















Weather Synopsis

Low level moisture has increased over most of the Northland today as southerly flow develops ahead of a low pressure system which was over the northern Plains.  Dew points this afternoon were generally in the 60s in our area with even higher dew points in the low-mid 70s just west/south of the Northland.  A mix of sun/clouds across the area today with showers and thunderstorms at times across far northern Minnesota.  Highs today ranged from around 70 near Lake Superior to the upper 70s and lower 80s away from the lake.

Through Saturday evening there will be chances for showers and thunderstorms as the system currently to our west moves toward the east.  A few different boundaries will affect us providing more lift in the atmosphere, this combined with a more potent disturbance which approaches from the NW on Saturday will keep the threat for convection going at least through Saturday evening.  This activity should remain scattered, so not everyone in the Northland will get wet, but the potential is there for showers and thunderstorms to move through at times with heavy rain and frequent lightning.  In addition, there is also a risk of a few strong to severe thunderstorms tonight and Saturday with strong mid and upper level winds over the upper Midwest.  Damaging wind gusts looks to be the main hazard in our area with the secondary threat coming from large hail of quarter size or larger.

Lows tonight will be in the 50s and 60s with highs Saturday in the 70s and 80s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 58 to 62.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 71 to 76 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High near 70.  Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  77
Low:   56

Sunrise Saturday:  5:37 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   8:52 PM CDT

Tim


Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Severe T-Storms with 60-80+ mph winds moved through parts of South Dakota and far southern Minnesota today with widespread wind damage. A nice Thursday ahead in the Northland (Highs upper 70s to mid 80s)

/Issued 7:35 PM CDT, Wednesday, July 19, 2017/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/

Ring Of Fire type weather pattern should continue for the next few days although the bulk of the thunderstorm/severe weather looks like it'll remain west/south of the Northland through Friday morning.












Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/

Infrared Satellite loop of today's bow echo which began in northern South Dakota this morning and as of 6 PM has moved into northeastern Iowa/southwestern Wisconsin.












Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

Preliminary storm reports map for July 19, 2017

Blue dots=Wind damage reports
Green dots=Large hail reports















Source:  http://www.nws.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/index.html













Weather Synopsis

Not too bad today with high temperatures close to where they should be for mid July with readings in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees in a few locations.  Humidity levels were tolerable as well today with dew points this afternoon in the 50s to lower 60s.  Started the day with quite a bit of sunshine but that was replaced by a shield of high and mid level cloudiness which passed over the Northland this afternoon thanks to a large thunderstorm complex which produced widespread damaging winds as it tracked east/southeast across southern Minnesota this afternoon.

A few showers or isolated thunderstorms could develop over parts of the area this evening but it's looking more and more likely that tonight will remain dry in most of the Northland.  A warm front down along the Iowa/Minnesota state line will stay in that general area tonight before it sinks a little further south on Thursday.  A wave of low pressure will track out of southern South Dakota and along that boundary tonight with showers and thunderstorms occurring at times over the southern half of Minnesota.

Partly to mostly cloudy and hazy sky conditions are expected in our area tonight with some patchy fog possible late.  Lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

Thursday is shaping up to be a splendid summer day around here with any fog burning off before 8 AM...Otherwise expecting mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.  Dew points are forecast to be in the 50s and 60s, a little on the muggy side but really nothing out of the ordinary for the time of year.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Hazy.  Partly cloudy.  Low 57 to 62.  Wind variable around 10 mph.

.Thursday...  Mostly sunny.  Haze possible.  High 79 to 84.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.  Dew point 60 to 65, falling into the 50s during the afternoon.

.Friday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Highs in the 70s.  East wind 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  77
Low:   56

Sunrise Thursday:  5:35 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   8:54 PM CDT

Tim

Tuesday, July 18, 2017

Clear/Comfy tonight; ~80 Wednesday with a risk of severe weather especially south of the Northland. More storm reports from Monday in this post

/Issued 5:42 PM CDT, Tuesday, July 18, 2017/

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com

7.18.2017 18z NAM 200mb wind forecast

The potential for more severe weather exists Wednesday and or Wednesday night across much of western, central and southern Minnesota -- The overall setup is favorable for a more significant and widespread damaging wind event in parts of the yellow outlined area on map sometime Wednesday or Wednesday night.
















Source:  http://www.weather.gov/mpx/stormreports

A few more storm reports added to this map since earlier today.  These reports are from Monday, July 17, 2017.

W=Wind/Wind Damage
H=Hail
F=Heavy Rain/Flood















Source:  http://www.nws.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/index.html













Additional Storm Reports from July 17, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

*8:25 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Yellowlake, WI (Burnett County)  Tree downed on County Road T blocking one lane of traffic between Oakland and Jackson Township.

*8:00 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  60 mph.  WNW Cloverton, MN (Pine County)

*7:59 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Markham, MN 4 NE (St. Louis County)  A few 6 inch diameter trees downed at the Whiteface Reservoir Campground.

*7:25 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Hinckley, MN (Pine County)  Few trees downed with the largest being a 26 inch diameter elm tree snapped 8 feet off the ground.

*6:59 PM CDT:  HAIL.  2.50 inch.  Aurora, MN 4 SW (St. Louis County)  Tennis ball sized hail.

*6:40 PM CDT:  HAIL.  0.75 inch.  Keewatin, MN (Itasca County)

*6:10 PM CDT:  HAIL.  0.50 inch.  Fort Ripley, MN 1 N (Crow Wing County)  Winds estimated about 50 mph.

*5:33 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Lake Shore, MN 2 SSE (Cass County) Damage to a dock on the western end of Gull Lake.

*5:30 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Cuyuna Country St (Crow Wing County)  Few downed trees on Nelson Road and Tower Road.

*5:23 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  65 mph.  Brainerd, MN 3 N (Crow Wing County)

*5:10 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Nisswa, MN 2 N (Crow Wing County)  6 inch tree snapped.

*5:05 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Remer, MN 1 SSE (Cass County)  12 to 16 inch box elder tree snapped about 8 to 10 feet off the ground.

*4:55 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Leader, MN 2 SSE (Cass County)  Trees down across Highway 64.

Weather Synopsis

Less humid conditions are slowly spreading south out of northern Minnesota this afternoon as a cold front exits the Northland to the south/east.  5 PM dew point temperatures ranged from the 40s and 50s across northern Minnesota while it was still soupy farther south with late day dew points in the mid 60s to low 70s in east central Minnesota and over all of northwest Wisconsin.

Showers and some thunderstorms affected parts of the Northland this morning into mid afternoon with the bulk of that activity staying near and south of Highway 2 in northeast Minnesota and affecting most of northwest Wisconsin.  Heavy downpours and lightning were the main hazards out of that activity.

As of late afternoon most of the Northland was dry under sunny skies over northern Minnesota while it was still mostly cloudy in most of northwest Wisconsin.

Tonight will be pleasant under clear skies except in northwest Wisconsin where a few showers and clouds will persist this evening before some clearing takes place from west to east during the night.  Expect some fog to develop later in the night due to the recent rain.  Lows tonight will range from the low 50s to low 60s but some of the typical cold spots could slip into the 40s.

Mild temperatures on the way for Wednesday but it won't be very humid.  Highs are forecast to be in the 70s and 80s with dew points ranging from 50 to the lower 60s.

High pressure passing through the region tonight will slide off to the south/east Wednesday as tonight's cold front turns into a warm front while it lifts from northern Iowa into south central Minnesota.  Intense heat will continue over the western High Plains region while a reservoir of very humid and unstable air sets up near the warm frontal boundary on Wednesday -- A round or two of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday or Wednesday night affecting portions of western, central and southern Minnesota.  With the very strong winds aloft in place the potential is there for a higher end wind event to occur somewhere from southern North Dakota through south central Minnesota.  It looks like our area will be far enough north for severe weather, but there could be some showers or thunderstorms at times especially from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.  A stronger storm can't be ruled out mainly over far southern portions of the Northland.

Thursday looks mainly dry with highs in the 70s to around 80 degrees.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog possible late.  Low 56 to 61.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 77 to 82.  Wind becoming south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 75 to 80.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  77
Low:   56

Sunrise Wednesday:  5:34 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   8:55 PM CDT

Tim


Wind damage and hail as large as Golf Balls reported as severe storms moved through parts of the Northland on Monday. Brainerd Lakes power outage update in this post

/Issued 12:46 PM CDT, Tuesday, July 18, 2017

Source:  http://www.weather.gov/mpx/stormreports
















Source:  https://www.weatherbell.com/

Monday evening's storms put on quite the lightning show with widespread frequent cloud to ground strikes across western, central, eastern and northeast Minnesota.
















Radar image from ~6PM Monday, July 17, 2017.

Yellow polygons=Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Red polygons=Tornado Warning

I highlighted in black where scattered reports of wind damage and power outages occurred from the severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon-early Monday evening.













Local Storm Reports from July 17, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

*7:58 PM CDT:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Embarrass, MN (St. Louis County)

*7:05 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  60 mph.  Moose Lake State Park 2 SW (Pine County)

*7:03 PM CDT:  HAIL.  0.75 inch.  Chisholm, MN (St. Louis County)  Dime size hail in town.

*7:00 PM CDT:  HAIL.  1.25 inch.  Aurora, MN 4 SW (St. Louis County)  Largest hail was half dollar sized.  In addition had lots of smaller hail that accumulated on the ground.

*7:00 PM CDT:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Aurora, MN 1 S (St. Louis County)

*6:57 PM CDT:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Aurora, MN (St. Louis County)

*6:53 PM CDT:  HAIL.  1.00 inch.  Biwabik, MN (St. Louis County)

*6:45 PM CDT:  HAIL.  1.75 inch.  Biwabik, MN (St. Louis County)  Golf Ball size hail.

*6:12 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  60 mph.  Pine Center, MN 1 NNW (Crow Wing County)

*6:09 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Libby, MN 2 E (Aitkin County)  Few trees downed on the north end of Big Sandy Lake.

*5:37 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Crosby, MN (Crow Wing County)  Public works department doing removal of several downed trees throughout town.

*5:33 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  54 mph.  Breezy Point, MN 5 SSE (Crow Wing County)

*5:21 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  53 mph.  Brainerd, MN 1 NE (Crow Wing County)

24-hour rainfall totals from July 17-18, 2017
Source:  http://mesowest.utah.edu

Note:  Totals listed below are through ~Noon today, July 18, 2017

Moose Lake, MN:  1.31 in
Zemple, MN 4 E:  1.01 in
Siren, WI:  0.97 in
Two Harbors, MN:  0.93 in
Hayward, WI:  0.60 in
Grand Marais, MN:  0.60 in
Minong, WI:  0.58 in
Effie, MN:  0.47 in
Skibo, MN:  0.45 in
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.42 in
Washburn, WI:  0.42 in
Brainerd, MN:  0.37 in
Cass Lake, MN:  0.36 in
Solon Springs, WI:  0.35 in
Barnes, WI:  0.31 in
Grand Rapids, MN:  0.30 in
Cook, MN:  0.28 in
Ashland, WI:  0.13 in
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN (Airport)  0.11 in

Note:  There was quite a bit of wind damage reported from the storms Monday especially around the Brainerd Lakes area in east central Minnesota.  Nisswa and Pequot Lakes were hit especially hard per reports from Minnesota Power -- Here is the link to their Twitter page @mnpower

Power outages continue as of Noon today over portions of the Brainerd Lakes area, but locations still without power should have it restored by later this afternoon per reports from Minnesota Power.

And a link to the Minnesota Power outage map http://outagemap.mnpower.com/external/default.html

Brainerd Dispatch http://www.brainerddispatch.com/news/4298974-storm-packs-punch-short-time-lakes-area

Here are a few pictures I took of the storms early Monday evening, July 17, 2017 -- I was just a little southwest of Duluth, Minnesota, near Wrenshall at the Highway 23 overlook.































Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Radar loop through 12:35 PM CDT today, July 18, 2017.

Expect occasional showers and some thunderstorms this afternoon in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Heavy downpours and some lightning are likely with gusty winds or hail also possible mainly over southern sections of northwest Wisconsin (Hayward Lakes area)
















Tim

Sunday, July 16, 2017

Cool tonight with some haze/smoke; More humid Monday (Dew points 60s to ~70) Highs approaching 100F in western Minnesota!

/Issued 5:13 PM CDT, Sunday, July 16, 2017/

Source:  https://www.weatherbell.com/

18z HRRRX model temperature forecast valid at 3 PM Monday.  A very warm Monday ahead in most of Minnesota, but it will be cooler near Lake Superior, although it should be a bit warmer compared to today (Sunday)

















Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com

7.16.2017 12z NSSL WRF-ARW model

The two images below show two difference scenarios for where thunderstorms develop late Monday afternoon/early Monday evening.
















Source:  https://www.weatherbell.com/

7.16.2017 18z HRRRX
















Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/














































Source:  https://www.weatherbell.com/

First half of July 2017 U.S. temperature anomalies

















Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

July 1-15, 2017 temperature departure map




















Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

July 1-15, 2017 precipitation departure map





















Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Temperature departure map for the week of July 9, 2017




















Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Precipitation departure map for the week of July 9, 2017





















Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

July 9-15, 2017

High temperatures

7/9:  74 F/-2 degrees below normal
7/10:  81 F/+5 degrees above normal
7/11:  76 F/Normal
7/12:  61 F/-15 degrees below normal
7/13:  57 F/-20 degrees below normal
7/14:  76 F/-1 degree below normal
7/15:  82 F/+5 degrees above normal

Low temperatures

7/9:  55 F/Normal
7/10:  56 F/+1 degree above normal
7/11:  53 F/-2 degrees below normal
7/12:  50 F/-5 degrees below normal
7/13:  50 F/-6 degrees below normal
7/14:  49 F/-7 degrees below normal
7/15:  60 F/+4 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.32"
Normal:  0.88"
Departure:  -0.56" below normal

Weather Synopsis

Sunny to mostly sunny skies across the Northland today but there was an area of smoke which has been pushing S/SE through parts of the area resulting in a hazy appearance to the sky today.  Highs ranged from the 60s near Lake Superior due to a gusty lake wind while highs farther inland were in the 70s.  Less humid today compared to Saturday with dew points this afternoon generally in the 40s and 50s.

A quiet and cool night ahead as high pressure remains over the Great Lakes.  Lows will be in the 40s and 50s but can't completely rule out a few 30s away from Lake Superior over interior portions of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Changes take place Monday as humidity ramps up while instability also increases as southerly winds develop out ahead of an area of low pressure which will be over the northern Plains -- A warm front and cold front attached to this low will make their way into the Northland on Monday.  Dew points are forecast to climb to between 60 and 70 degrees in our area by Monday afternoon with PWATS building to 1.25"-1.75".  CAPE will range from 1000-2500 j/kg with around 30 knots of Effective Bulk Shear and 0-6 km shear.  Mid level winds are forecast to range from 30-45 knots with a corridor of strong winds aloft 80-100 knots off to our west/northwest.  The overall setup for Monday is favorable for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin -- The greatest potential for this to occur over north central and east central portions of Minnesota.  Note:  The main hazards besides lightning and heavy rainfall will be from hail or gusty winds Monday and Monday night.  Highs on Monday are expected to be in the 80s with a chance for a 90 degree temperature near the Brainerd Lakes.  It will remain cooler along the North Shore of Lake Superior with highs in the 60s and 70s.

Note:  A top 5 coldest low temperature on record is possible in Duluth early Monday morning, July 17.  Records date back to 1870.  See stats below.

1:  40 degrees in 1971
2:  45 degrees in 1979 and 1951
3:  46 degrees in 1914
4:  47 degrees in 1924
5:  48 degrees in 1956, 1937, 1920, 1918 and 1911

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Mostly clear but some haze or fog possible.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday...  Turning more humid.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Some fog possible early.  Isolated showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon.  High 77 to 82 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph inland, and east to southeast near Lake Superior.

.Monday night...  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy.  Lows in the 60s.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  77
Low:   56

Sunrise Monday:  5:32 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   8:57 PM CDT

Tim