Friday, August 22, 2014

August 22, 2014 Weather Report - Fog, drizzle, cool east winds; Severe thunderstorms possible on Sunday.

/Issued 4:04 PM CDT, Friday, August 22, 2014/

There's a risk for a few severe thunderstorms over the Northland on Sunday, with this being a few days away things could change but right now the computer models are showing a pretty favorable setup for severe weather.

The image below is the 250mb wind forecast for late Sunday Afternoon.  An area of strong winds aloft ranging from 60-80+ knots to our northwest (Black circled area on the map)  This would help in producing a risk for strong/severe convection to the east-southeast of the strong upper level winds.  Of course other ingredients will need to be in place in order to get severe weather on Sunday, by no means is this set in stone.  Source, 18z NAM, COD website.





















2nd day in a row that I'm seeing impressive numbers for supercell thunderstorm development for late Sunday Afternoon.  The orange, red, and pinkish colors are values of 4-10, usually a value around 1-2 is what you need for supercells - so yeah these values are rather high.  Again though this doesn't mean will get severe weather on Sunday.  It's only one models take on how things might play out late this weekend.  Source, 18z NAM, COD website.


























A slight risk for severe thunderstorms for Saturday and Saturday Night (Green area on the map)  The risk area is roughly along and west of a line from Bemidji to Brainerd.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.
























Weather Summary for August 22, 2014
Location:  NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Same old weather - different day.  Most of the Northland continued to be socked in with low clouds along with areas of fog and drizzle, but there has been some sunshine peeking out from time to time across Western sections of the area.  High temperatures Today were in the 70s with 60s near Lake Superior.  Winds were out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (August 22)

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms might occur in two spots Tonight, one would be over far Northern Minnesota, the other in Eastern parts of Northwest Wisconsin, otherwise for Tonight expect mostly cloudy skies with areas of fog and drizzle once again.  Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with east winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night (August 23)

Low pressure will be organizing across the Western High Plains and Northern Plains during this period with a warm front lifting N-NE into Western/Southern areas of Minnesota.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms should start to impact the Northland by Saturday Night, but before then it looks mainly dry. 

High temperatures on Saturday will be in the 70s to around 80 degrees with 60s near Lake Superior.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the 60s to around 70 with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Winds during this period will be out of the east or southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Sunday through Tuesday (August 24-26)

***Severe thunderstorms possible on Sunday***

The computer models are coming into better agreement, but with that said there remains a possibility that things could change a bit between now and Sunday.

An area of low pressure is forecast to pass well to the northwest of our area on Sunday while a secondary low heads northeast through Minnesota.  A warm front and cold front will both be impacting the Northland from Sunday through early Monday.

There's little doubt that will have plenty of moisture and instability to fuel thunderstorms on Sunday with dew points expected to range from 65-75 degrees with CAPE in the 1500-3000 j/kg range, and those values might end up even higher depending on the amount of sunshine we see on Sunday.

Should have enough shear in place with about 30-35 knots of 0-6 KM and EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.  Mid level winds although kind of marginal most of the day should increase by late Sunday Afternoon-Evening with possibly 30-40 knot H5 winds spreading across our area from SW-NE.  Upper level winds are forecast to be quite strong with an area of 60-80 knot winds off to our NW.  Wind direction is also forecast to be changing with height on Sunday with SE flow near the surface turning southerly at 850mb and SW at 500mb.

This all looks good on paper, but again will just have to wait and see how things setup once Sunday gets here.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Sunday and Sunday Night with locally heavy rain and a threat for some severe thunderstorms.  At this point all modes of severe weather could occur including large hail, strong winds, and isolated tornadoes.

Quiet weather returns on Monday as low pressure moves into Ontario while a cold front exits to our east.  Some showers might affect Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Tuesday with dry weather over Northern Minnesota.

High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 70s and 80s with cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Highs on Monday will range from the 60s in Northern Minnesota with 70s and lower 80s elsewhere.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 60s and 70s.  Low temperatures Sunday Night will be in the 60s to around 70.  Lows Monday Night will mainly be in the 50s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(August 27-September 1)

27th-29th is looking mainly dry at this time with showers or thunderstorms possible from the 30th-September 1.  Temperatures are forecast to be near or below average on the 27th-28th and near to above average from the 29th-1st.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Areas of fog and drizzle.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 57 to 62.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Considerable cloudiness.  Areas of fog and drizzle.  High 64 to 69.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Areas of fog and drizzle.  Showers or thunderstorms possible late.  Low 57 to 62.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.  High 69 to 74.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  Low 58 to 63.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 72 to 77.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 52 to 57.

.Tuesday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 68 to 73.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  73
Low:   54

Sunrise Saturday:  6:17 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   8:05 PM CDT

Tim



Thursday, August 21, 2014

August 21, 2014 Weather Report - Clouds, fog/drizzle, A cool breeze out of the east.

/Issued 4:54 PM CDT, Thursday, August 21, 2014/

Here's a 12 hour satellite loop showing last night's thunderstorm complex (MCS) which rolled southeast through Central/Southern Minnesota and Wisconsin.  Source, Unisys.com
























Weather Summary for August 21, 2014
Location:  NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Well Today's forecast went pretty much as planned.  Warm front didn't get anywhere close to the Northland so we were cool and gray with some fog and drizzle especially near Lake Superior.  All the warm, juicy weather is over Southern Minnesota and this is where heavier rain/thunderstorms occurred early This Morning with some redevelopment late This Afternoon.  High temperatures over our area were in the 60s to lower 70s with easterly winds at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (August 21)

Mostly cloudy skies with areas of fog and drizzle will persist Tonight.  Low pressure along with a warm front over Southern Minnesota will track east during the night.  This system might generate scattered showers over the area Tonight with isolated thunderstorms possible as well mainly from East Central Minnesota through Northwestern Wisconsin.  I don't think will have any severe weather this far north Tonight as the greatest instability remains well to our south and shows no sign of pushing north.  Low temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s with east or northeast winds at 5 to around 20 mph.

Friday and Friday Night (August 22)

A warm front remains well to our south with another boundary to our northwest during this period.  A few showers or thunderstorms are possible Tomorrow into Tomorrow Evening but I think most of us will stay dry.  High temperatures on Friday will be in the 70s and 80s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.  East or northeast winds will continue this period at 5 to around 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Saturday through Monday (August 23-25)

Low pressure will lift into the Northern Plains and eventually into Ontario during this period.  Warm front which will stay well to our south through Saturday might push farther north on Sunday while a cold front heads east into the Upper Midwest. 

Dry weather is expected during the day Saturday with showers or thunderstorms possible from Saturday Night through early Monday with dry weather returning for most of the day Monday.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible over the weekend, and there may even be some threat for severe thunderstorms at some point Saturday or Sunday but still seeing quite a bit of model differences on the timing of the trough/low/fronts, so stay tuned.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s and 80s from Saturday through Monday with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior over the weekend.  Lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(August 26-31)

It now looks like temperatures will stay pretty close to average during this period.  Most of the below average stuff stays north of the border next week if you can trust what the long range computer models are showing.  Chance for showers on the 26th-27th, and again from the 29th-31st.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Overcast.  Some drizzle and fog.  Showers possible.  Low 56 to 61.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday...  Considerable cloudiness.  Possible fog, drizzle, and showers.  High 65 to 70.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Considerable cloudiness.  High 65 to 70.

.Saturday Night...  Showers possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 57 to 62.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 68 to 73.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 58 to 63.

.Monday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  74
Low:   54

Sunrise Friday:  6:15 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   8:07 PM CDT

Tim

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

August 20, 2014 Weather Report - Dry Tonight; Rain possible at times on Thursday; Cool easterly winds in the Twin Ports thru Sunday. Storm reports, precip data included in this post.

/Issued 3:54 PM CDT, Wednesday, August 20, 2014/

The 18z HopWRF model shows a significant amount of rain later Tonight across the Southern half of Minnesota with the potential for 2-4"+ totals.  This seems reasonable as a warm front will lift into that part of the state during the night with abundant moisture pooling near that boundary.  Once thunderstorms initiate they will likely move over the same location over and over again.  Note:  It does look like most of the Northland will escape the rain for Tonight.























How much precipitation has fallen in Duluth?  Lets take a look...

August total thru the 19th:  3.60"
Departure:  +1.38"

Last year's total thru the 19th:  0.55"

Since June 1:  11.49"
Departure:  +1.19"


Last year's total thru August 19th:  6.82"

Since January 1:  23.92"
Departure:  +4.70"

Last year's total thru August 19th:  20.16"

Precipitation departure map for August thru the 19th.  Drier than normal conditions south and north while an area from West Central to Northeast Minnesota has had above average precipitation so far this month.  Another area of above average precipitation across Central/Eastern sections of Wisconsin.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.

























Local Storm Reports from August 18, 2014
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Note:  These are additional reports added to the list I posted on Tuesday.

*7:09 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  1 NW of Rutledge, MN (Pine County)  14" diameter maple tree broken near base.

*7:11 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  2 SSW of Willow River, MN (Pine County)  Numerous trees down along CR 61.  1 downed over roadway.

*7:02 PM CDT:  0.75" HAIL.  2 NE of Shell Lake, WI (Washburn County)  2 waves of hail - biggest stones were larger than marble size, but the average was marble size.

*7:05 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Willow River, MN (Pine County)  Large pine trees down 12" in diameter.

*7:15 PM CDT:  0.88" HAIL.  Willow River, MN (Pine County)  Hail size ranged from pea to nickel.

Storm reports map from August 18, 2014.  I circled the reports that occurred closer to home.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Blue dots=Wind damage
Green dots=Large hail

























Weather Summary for August 20, 2014
Location:  NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

A little disappointing Today to see all the clouds with just a few peeks of sun every now and again, but overall another mostly cloudy day across the Northland.  High temperatures were mainly in the 70s with cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Dew points ranged from the upper 50s to mid 60s and winds were from the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.  Weather map as of 4 PM featured an area of low pressure at the surface and aloft
over the Eastern Great Lakes while a broad SW flow aloft develops from the Rockies to the Upper Midwest thanks in part to an upper level trough which is moving into the Northwest U.S.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (August 20)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail Tonight with patchy fog possible.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms might begin to affect the Western-Southern portions of the area especially after Midnight.  Low temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s with east or southeast winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night (August 21)

A warm front is forecast to setup from South Central Minnesota to Central/Southern Wisconsin as low pressure tracks through the Upper Midwest.  Showers and thunderstorms will likely occur from time to time during this period as moisture and instability increases across the region.  At this time it appears that the greatest instability will setup south of the Northland so Central/Southern Minnesota and West Central Wisconsin will have the best chance for possible severe thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday Night.  In our neck of the woods, expect showers with embedded thunderstorms with heavy downpours being the primary threat, although there will be an outside chance for a severe thunderstorm over far Southern portions of the Northland.

High temperatures Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the east at 10 to 20 mph.

Calibrated severe thunderstorm probability forecast for Thursday PM per 15z SREF model.  Highest odds for severe weather appear to be setting up across Southern Minnesota - possibly as far north as Central/Eastern Minnesota, this risk area extends into Western-Southern areas of Wisconsin.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.
























Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

Friday through Sunday (August 22-24)

A risk for a few spotty showers or thunderstorms continues on Friday although latest model guidance has certainly trended drier for both Friday and Saturday with the next round of rain holding off until Saturday Night and Sunday the way it looks now.  We shall see...

The pattern during this period will feature an upper level ridge/hot air dome well to our south/southeast while an upper level trough moves slowly ENE out of the Rockies.  A southwest flow aloft will cover the Upper Midwest along with a fairly moist and unstable atmosphere.  Low pressure approaching from the southwest during the weekend should result in a better chance for showers and possibly some thunderstorms across the Northland.

High temperatures from Friday through Sunday will mainly be in the 70s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Note:  A few locales might climb into the 80s especially on Friday.  Low temperatures Friday Night and Saturday Night are forecast to be in the 50s and 60s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(August 25-30)

Near to below average temperatures through this period.  Showers are possible from the 25th-27th and again on the 29th-30th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy with showers possible at times.  High 62 to 67.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly cloudy with showers possible at times.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday...  Considerable cloudiness.  High 70 to 75.

.Friday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 66 to 71.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 55 to 60.

.Sunday...  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 68 to 73.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  74
Low:   54

Sunrise Thursday:  6:14 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   8:09 PM CDT

Tim





Tuesday, August 19, 2014

August 19, 2014 Weather Report - Spotty showers ending This Evening, patchy fog later on; Wednesday looks pretty nice. Storm reports from Monday included in this post.

/Issued 3:51 PM CDT, Tuesday, August 19, 2014/

The weather pattern from Wednesday Night through the weekend will be one that consists of an upper level ridge/high pressure (hot temperatures) across the Central-Southern Plains - marked with the red H on the map.  Northwest-north of that ridge, periodic episodes of showers and thunderstorms should occur as an upper trough over the Northern Rockies (black lines/black arrow on the map) moves slowly toward the northeast.  This pattern is often referred to a "Ring of Fire" as storm clusters form on the west-north side of the intense heat which will be located well to our south.  Heavy rain and some severe weather could affect parts of the Upper Midwest later this week/weekend given the type of weather pattern that is forecast to develop.  The image below is valid for early Saturday AM.  250mb map per 18z NAM.  Source, COD website.



















http://youtu.be/It7107ELQvY - Ring of Fire









7-day rainfall forecast valid thru Tuesday, August 26, 2014.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.  Widespread 1-2"+ totals expected across the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Western Great Lakes.
























Local Storm Reports for August 18, 2014
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*5:14 PM CDT:  1.00" HAIL.  Riverton, MN (Crow Wing County)

*5:14 PM CDT:  1.00" HAIL.  3 SSW of Cuyuna Country St, MN (Crow Wing County)

*5:41 PM CDT:  1.00" HAIL.  5 SE of Cuyana Country Sta, MN (Crow Wing County)  Hail was slightly bigger than quarters.

*7:00 PM CDT:  HEAVY RAIN.  1.55".  7 NNE of McGregor, MN (Aitkin County)  Rain total duration, 35 minutes.

*7:26 PM CDT:  0.75" HAIL.  4 S of Bruno, MN (Pine County)

*11:49 PM CDT:  HEAVY RAIN.  2.30".  Breezy Point, MN (Crow Wing County)  Rainfall total during the past 36 hours.

*11:49 PM CDT:  HEAVY RAIN.  1.01".  Alborn, MN (St. Louis County)  Rainfall total from Monday Afternoon/Evening's round of storms.

Rainfall report for August 18-19, 2014
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  0.58"
Brainerd, MN:  0.51"
Ashland, WI:  0.50"
Hayward, WI:  1.16"
7 NW of Brainerd, MN:  0.75"
3 NE of Nisswa, MN:  0.85"
Cass Lake, MN:  0.44"
Embarrass, MN:  0.52"
Floodwood, MN:  0.29"
Grand Portage, MN:  0.30"
3 S of Ashland, WI:  0.50"
Butternut, WI:  0.24"
Upson, WI:  2.00"
Gordon, WI:  0.98"
Sarona, WI:  1.74"
Webster, WI:  0.91"

Weather Summary for August 19, 2014
Location:  NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Low pressure stretched from Southwest Ontario to Southern Upper Michigan late This Afternoon with an upper level trough tracking east through the Western Great Lakes.  Scattered showers affected portions of the Northland Today, otherwise it was a partly sunny to mostly cloudy type of day with highs in the 60s and 70s.  Winds were out of the north, east, or west Today at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (August 19)

Expect scattered showers to continue until about mid Evening.  The rest of Tonight will be dry as sky conditions vary from partly to mostly cloudy.  Areas of fog could develop during the night.  Lows will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees but some spots will probably dip into the 40s.  Winds will be out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (August 20)

Tomorrow looks pretty nice considering the kind of weather we've had here the past few days.  Partly to mostly sunny skies are in the forecast with highs ranging from the 70s to the low 80s with cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the east or southeast at 10 to 20 mph.  A weak area of high pressure will slide through the area Tomorrow providing us with a pleasant summer day.

By Wednesday Night will see changes take place already as low pressure and a warm front approach from the southwest.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop from SW-NE Wednesday Night.  A few of the storms could be on the strong side especially over Southwest portions of the area.  Locally heavy rain will also be possible.

Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s and 60s with east or southeast winds at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium-High.

Thursday through Saturday (August 21-23)

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible at times Thursday and Thursday Evening as an area of low pressure along with a warm front tracks E/NE into the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes. 

Note:  If we see this system slow down enough, and if skies clear a bit on Thursday, then we could be setting the stage for some severe thunderstorm development late Thursday Afternoon-Evening primarily in Northwestern Wisconsin, but this potential may extend west into parts of East Central Minnesota. 

Supercell thunderstorms will be possible as there should be favorable ingredients in place to support supercellular storms.  Winds aloft look strong, wind shear looks sufficient, will also have a change of wind direction with height.  Only question marks would be the timing and how much clearing can take place prior to late Thursday Afternoon.  The amount of instability and moisture look rather impressive as well on Thursday -  but again this takes into account that will have a few hours of clearing, if that doesn't happen, then the instability will be much lower.

We could dry out most of Friday but then another chance for showers or thunderstorms moves in Friday Night and Saturday as a new system takes shape over the Western High Plains.

High temperatures from Thursday through Saturday are forecast to be in the 70s and 80s with cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Lows Thursday Night and Friday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium-High.

(August 24-29)

Showers or thunderstorms are possible on Sunday (24th) with near normal temperatures expected.  We cool down Monday/Tuesday (25th-26th) as temperatures look to be below average with near to below average temperatures from the 27th-29th. 

A few showers are possible on the 25th and again toward the 29th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Spotty showers This Evening.  Partly to mostly cloudy with patchy fog late.  Low 53 to 58.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Areas of fog early.  Partly cloudy.  High 71 to 76 but a little cooler closer to Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 65 to 70.

.Thursday Night...  Showers or thunderstorms possible early.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 58 to 63.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 72 to 77.

.Friday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 55 to 60.

.Saturday...  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 70 to 75.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  74
Low:   54

Sunrise Wednesday:  6:13 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   8:10 PM CDT

Tim



Monday, August 18, 2014

August 18, 2014 Weather Report - Scattered showers/few t'storms Tonight and Tuesday; Patchy fog and drizzle redeveloping Tonight.

/Issued 4:08 PM CDT, Monday, August 18, 2014/

A few areas of rain/embedded t-storms across the Northland as of 4:45 PM Today.  The black arrows represent the general movement of this rain.




















Rainfall report for August 17-18, 2014 ending at 7 AM Today
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  1.13"
Brainerd, MN:  1.53"
Hayward, WI:  0.86"
4 S of Bruno, MN:  0.40"
Bruno, MN:  0.45"
12 N of Isle, MN:  1.03"
Cass Lake, MN:  0.39"
4 E of Island Lake, MN:  0.82"
Butternut, WI:  0.21"
9 N of Bayfield, WI:  0.65"
Gordon, WI:  0.31"
Webster, WI:  1.18"

Rainfall map for the past 24 hours ending the Morning of August 18, 2014.  Source:  Midwest Regional Climate Center.






















Weather Summary for August 18, 2014
Location:  NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Broad area of low pressure averaging 1006mb stretches from Eastern Manitoba to South Central Minnesota.  There's a warm front/trough from Northern/Eastern Minnesota into North Central Wisconsin while a cold front was over Western Minnesota.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have been occurring Today especially over parts of Northwest Wisconsin, and across Northern Minnesota.  Other spotty showers and thunderstorms have been developing This Afternoon around the Brainerd Lakes area.  Elsewhere it was generally dry Today.  Areas of fog and drizzle was common near Lake Superior but this did burn off during the Afternoon hours.

Sky conditions varied from mostly cloudy to partly sunny Today with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s with 50s along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Winds Today were out of the south, southwest, or east at 5 to around 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (August 18)

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be found over the Northland Tonight as a slow moving weather system tracks east-southeast through the Upper Midwest.  Thunderstorms that do occur Tonight should not be severe as instability remains fairly weak this far north, winds aloft are weak, and not much wind shear out there.  Locally heavy rain will be possible though as there continues to be an ample amount of moisture over the area with PWATS up around 1.50" This Afternoon.

Low temperatures Tonight will be in the 50s and 60s with variable winds at 5 to 15 mph.  Note:  Areas of fog and drizzle could redevelop over parts of the area during the night.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (August 19)

Low pressure along with an upper level trough will be moving east and slowly away from the Northland this period.  Showers will remain a possibility Tomorrow and Tomorrow Evening with dry weather by late Tomorrow Night.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected this period with highs in the 60s and 70s.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 50s to lower 60s.  Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 10 to 15 mph with winds turning to the south/east Tuesday Night.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

Wednesday through Friday (August 20-22)

Dry and pleasant weather is forecast on Wednesday with highs in the 70s and 80s but it will be cooler along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

There will be a chance for showers or thunderstorms at times from Thursday into Friday as we see a change in the overall weather pattern take place as an upper level ridge/building heat dome sets up over the Southern/Central Plains while stronger mid/upper level winds develop across the Western High Plains to the Upper Midwest.  An upper level trough is also expected to develop to our west with pieces of energy likely breaking off this trough while they lift north/east later this week.  This type of setup can be an active one as periods of showers/thunderstorms develop on the west-north sides of the upper ridge which will be located to our south.  The threat for severe weather and or heavy rainfall may increase across parts of the area later in the week.  Stay tuned...

High temperatures for Thursday and Friday should be in the 70s and 80s with cooler temperatures continuing along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

(August 23-28)

Showers or thunderstorms might continue into Saturday (23rd) although computer models vary quite a bit with the progression of the upper level trough that develops late this week.  A few models show a faster movement to the trough, others are slower.

A faster movement would probably lead to a mainly dry weekend in our area while a slower movement to the trough could lead to some wet weather this weekend.

The period from the 25th-28th looks generally dry/quiet at the moment.

Near normal temperatures on the 23rd, and from the 26th-28th.  Below average temperatures from the 24th-25th.

Still seeing a wet trend showing up during the next 7-days.  The map below shows the expected rainfall totals through Monday, August 25, 2014.  Widespread 1-2"+ amounts expected from the Northern Plains through the Upper Midwest.  Source:  Weather Prediction Center.






















5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Scattered showers redeveloping.  Isolated thunderstorms also possible.  Areas of fog and drizzle could also redevelop.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Areas of fog and drizzle possible early.  Scattered showers possible.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 70 to 75.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind north around 10 mph becoming east.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 72 to 77.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.

.Thursday...  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 67 to 72.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 58 to 63.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 70 to 75.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  74
Low:   55

Sunrise Tuesday:  6:12 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   8:12 PM CDT

Tim