Monday, February 8, 2016

February 8, 2016 Weather Report - Snow continues tonight near Lake Superior; Wind chill advisory and winter weather advisory in effect in parts of the Northland; Snowfall report included in this post

/Issued 4:39 PM CST, Monday, February 8, 2016/

So far this month has been quite similar to January - Both started off warm, followed by a week or two of arctic air in January.  Here's the 500mb map valid for Friday, February 12, 2016.  Cold the next few days here in the Northland but an even colder airmass pushes south/east out of Central Canada late this week.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.
















Winter weather headlines map, more information at the links below.  Source, Aerisweather.com

Light blue=Wind chill advisory:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=wind%20chill%20advisory

Purple=Winter weather advisory:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory
















Here's how much more snow could accumulate tonight - More snow on the way for Tuesday along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin.












Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Tuesday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Snowfall totals for February 7-8, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Gile, WI (Iron County)  7.8"
3 N of Mahtowa, MN (Carlton County)  2.0"
1 N of Cloquet, MN (Carlton County)  2.5"
Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  1.7"  Official NWS total.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  February 8, 2016

Cold temperatures have returned! Low pressure of 1002mb was over the Eastern Great Lakes today with high pressure well to our west.  Highs today were in the teens and 20s just after Midnight but temperatures through the day have fallen into the single digits and teens.  Mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies were found in the Northland today with areas of blowing and drifting snow - There's also been more snow showers and flurries with enhanced snow shower activity continuing near Lake Superior which actually started Sunday evening and continued off an on throughout the day thanks to the formation of a gravity wave.  Winds today were out of the north or northwest at 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 8)

Low pressure will continue to sit and spin over the Eastern Great Lakes tonight.  Scattered snow showers and flurries will linger in parts of the Northland tonight with heavier lake effect snow showers persisting along the South Shore of Lake Superior affecting Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties.  Low temperatures will range from the single digits below to around 10 above zero with north or northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with locally higher gusts.  Areas of blowing and drifting snow will continue tonight especially in open areas.

Note:  There is also a chance for another gravity wave to develop this evening along the North Shore of Lake Superior, if this does develop then there could be locally moderate to heavy snow showers at times tonight that would affect locations close to Lake Superior including Southeast St. Louis, Southern Lake and Southern Cook Counties, extending down into Eastern Carlton and Northeast Pine County.  A few inches of snow could accumulate along the North Shore of Lake Superior tonight but confidence of this actually occurring is on the low side late this afternoon.

Tuesday and Tuesday night (February 9)

An area of high pressure will build south/east out of Saskatchewan and Manitoba Province while low pressure covers Eastern Canada and the Northeast U.S.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast on Tuesday with more snow showers and flurries affecting the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin with mainly dry weather expected elsewhere.  Highs will be in the single digits and teens with lows in the single digits, teens and 20s below.  Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Wednesday through Friday (February 10-12)

Mainly dry from mid to late week and it will be cold.  High temperatures are expected to be in the single digits to around 10 above with low temperatures Wednesday night and Thursday night in the single digits and teens below with 20s below possible in the typical cold spots.

Note:  Dangerously cold wind chills (Feels like temperatures) are expected in Northern Minnesota late tonight into Tuesday morning, and again from time to time during mid to late week.  Wind chill headlines may be needed at times throughout the week in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

(February 13-18)

Below average temperatures on the 13th with near to below average temperatures on the 14th - After that near or above average temperatures from the 15th-18th.  A minor snow event is possible sometime between the 14th-16th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

Event:  *WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SUPERIOR*
Timing:  Until Midnight CST Tonight.

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Occasional snow showers and flurries.  Snowfall accumulations of around 1" possible with up to 3" possible south of Superior.  Low 0 to 5 below.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

.Tuesday...  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 4 to 9.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 8 below to 13 below.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 5 to 10.

.Wednesday night...  Mostly clear.  Low 7 below to 12 below.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 8 to 13.

.Thursday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 5 to 10.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  22
Low:     4

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:22 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   5:23 PM CST

Tim




Sunday, February 7, 2016

February 7, 2016 Weather Report - A warm first week of February but winter like temps return this week (Shocking!) Wind and some snow into Monday; Winter weather advisories in effect in parts of the Northland

/Issued 3:16 PM CST, Sunday, February 7, 2016/

Above average temperatures so far this month at both Duluth and International Falls, Minnesota - February is running +4.9 degrees warmer than average at Duluth and +7.7 degrees warmer than average at International Falls.  Will see these temperature departures drop quite a bit during the next 7 days but will probably warm up again after next weekend.  Blame the Godzilla El Nino!












Winter weather headlines map as of 3 PM today.  Source, Aerisweather.com

Purple=Winter weather advisory
Red=Blizzard warning
Pink=Winter storm warning

Winter weather advisory information:  http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/#2016-O-NEW-KDLH-WW-Y-0005/USCOMP-N0Q-201602071800
















Last week's temperature departure map.  +6 to +12 degrees above average in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.
















Last week's precipitation departure map.
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Monday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

January 31-February 6, 2016

High temperatures

1/31:  40 F/+20 degrees above normal
2/1:  30 F/+10 degrees above normal
2/2:  27 F/+6 degrees above normal
2/3:  19 F/-2 degrees below normal
2/4:  23 F/+2 degrees above normal
2/5:  26 F/+5 degrees above normal
2/6:  34 F/+12 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

1/31:  20 F/+18 degrees above normal
2/1:  22 F/+20 degrees above normal
2/2:  10 F/+8 degrees above normal
2/3:  -2 F/-5 degrees below normal
2/4:  0 F/-3 degrees below normal
2/5:  -4 F/-7 degrees below normal
2/6:  16 F/+13 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.15"
Normal:  0.17"
Departure:  -0.02" below normal

*Preliminary snowfall report for February 6-7, 2016*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Hoyt Lakes, MN (St. Louis County)  2.5"
Embarrass, MN (St. Louis County)  3.0"
Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)  1.5"
3 W of Iron Junction, MN (St. Louis County)  2.0"
3 SE of Finland, MN (Lake County)  2.2"
Silver Bay, MN (Lake County)  2.1"
Ely, MN (St. Louis County)  3.5"
1 S of Cass Lake, MN (Cass County)  2.0"

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  February 7, 2016

Balmy late winter temperatures once again today with some spring like rain in some parts of the area and snow or a mixture of precipitation for others.  Strong area of low pressure averaging 998mb has moved into far Northeast Minnesota this afternoon with an upper level low pressure system also over Northern Minnesota this afternoon.  Periods of snow, rain and drizzle affected most of the Northland today - What kind of precipitation you saw depended on where you live, locations close to Lake Superior have seen mainly rain today while inland locations saw snow or a mix bag of precipitation.  Cold air has been slow to move in today with temperatures this afternoon still running in the upper 20s to middle 30s.  Winds today were out of southwest or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 7)

Low pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to slowly move toward the southeast tonight - This system will track from far Northeast Minnesota to Northern Lake Michigan by daybreak.  Light snow, snow showers and flurries will continue across the area tonight with some light rain/drizzle also likely early this evening especially close to Lake Superior and in portions of Northwest Wisconsin.  Colder temperatures and gusty winds move in tonight with lows in the single digits and teens.  Winds will shift to the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph possible.

Monday and Monday night (February 8)

Colder with brisk northwest winds! Snow showers and flurries will persist into Monday evening under a mostly cloudy to partly sunny sky on Monday and partly to mostly cloudy skies Monday night.  Low pressure will be moving over the Central/Eastern Great Lakes tomorrow which will result in some lingering snow in our area.  Highs will be in the single digits to around 20 degrees with lows in the single digits and teens below zero to single digits above zero.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

Note:  Colder air moving over Lake Superior combined with a favorable north to northwest wind will produce lake effect snow showers along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin beginning late tonight and lasting at least through Tuesday.  Several inches of snow will accumulate especially in parts of Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties.

Note:  Frigid wind chills in the single digits, teens and 20s below late tonight into Monday morning and once again Monday night into Tuesday morning in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tuesday through Thursday (February 9-11)

Mainly dry in most of the Northland from Tuesday through Thursday.  High temperatures will be range from around zero to 10 above with low temperatures Tuesday night and Wednesday night in the single digits and teens below zero but the typical cold spots will probably dip into the 20s below.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(February 12-17)

A massive blob of frigid arctic air will cover Central-Eastern Canada and the Northeast U.S. late this week/next weekend with the southwest edge of this arctic blast likely affecting the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on February 12th-13th, after that temperatures will moderate back to average or even above average from the 14th-17th, so basically the same old weather pattern we've seen this winter, quick shots of cold air followed by lengthy periods of mild-warm temperatures.  No major storms showing up that would affect the Northland during the long range but there is a system that could bring some light snow to the area between the 14th-15th the way it looks now.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

Event:  *WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SUPERIOR*
Timing:  
Until Midnight CST Monday night.

.Tonight...  Breezy and turning colder.  Occasional light snow and flurries.  Snowfall accumulations around 1" or less.  Low 8 to 13.  Wind becoming northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Monday...  Breezy and colder.  Occasional snow showers and flurries.  High 15 to 20.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Monday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 0 to 5 below.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 6 to 11.

.Tuesday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 8 below to 13 below.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 5 to 10.

.Wednesday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 7 below to 12 below.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 6 to 11.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  22
Low:     4

Sunrise Monday:  7:24 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   5:22 PM CST

Tim










Saturday, February 6, 2016

February 6, 2016 Weather Report - Light snow, sleet and rain tonight; More snow chances Sunday-Monday; Blizzard conditions in Western Minnesota Sunday and Monday; Near hurricane force wind gusts Sunday-Monday across the Northern Plains

/Issued 4:51 PM CST, Saturday, February 6, 2016/

A variety of winter weather headlines in effect through Monday.  More information at the links below.  Source, Aerisweather.com

Winter weather advisory - http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=fgf&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory

Winter storm warning - http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=fgf&wwa=winter%20storm%20warning

Blizzard watch - http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=mpx&wwa=blizzard%20watch

Blizzard warning - http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=fgf&wwa=blizzard%20warning
















Tropical force to hurricane force wind gusts are expected through Monday across the Northern Plains and Western High Plains - The brown outlined area on the map is where wind gusts of 45-65 mph or greater are possible through Monday.















Late afternoon water vapor satellite image and low pressure position from 4 PM today (Storm track is the red line on map) Source, http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

















Upper Midwest radar loop ending at 4:30 PM CST today.  Source, WSI.

Blue=Snow
Green=Rain














Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Sunday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















*12 subzero low temperature days so far this winter at the Duluth Airport - Last winter thru February 6th we had 22 days with a subzero low temperature.  The average number of days during the winter with a subzero low temperature is 35 days - Last winter we ended up with 37 subzero low temperature days.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  February 6, 2016

Unseasonably mild temperatures over the area today with highs generally in the 30s.  Strong low pressure averaging 996mb was over Eastern Saskatchewan Province late this afternoon with high pressure off to our north - Increasing southerly winds occurred across the Northland today out ahead of the approaching low from Saskatchewan.  Wind speeds were in the 10 to 20 mph range with higher gusts.  Most of the day has been dry but radar echoes have been increasing this afternoon over Western portions of the Northland where some light snow or mixed precipitation could be hitting the ground as of 4 PM.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 6)

Low pressure will track from Eastern Saskatchewan to Southern Manitoba by daybreak while a warm front lifts north through far Northern Minnesota tonight which will be followed by a cold front which drops south/east out of the Northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest later tonight.  Expect a few rounds of precipitation to move through the Northland tonight - Precipitation types will vary as temperatures aloft and near the surface will remain on the mild side.  Snow, sleet, freezing rain and even some rain is all possible tonight with the greatest chance for the precipitation to stay in the form of snow found along the Borderland and also over the Arrowhead of Minnesota.  Temperatures will hold steady in the 20s and 30s tonight with winds out of the south, southeast or southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Sunday and Sunday night (February 7)

A strong area of low pressure will track from far Northwest Minnesota to Northern Lake Michigan by early Monday morning - The combination of this low, an upper level trough and two cold fronts will help to generate periods of snow in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Sunday and Sunday night.  Some mixed precipitation will also be possible mainly Sunday morning in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Note:  Most of the snow that does fall should be on the light side, but a few heavier snow showers are certainly possible.  Highs on Sunday will be in the 30s with lows Sunday night in the single digits and teens.  Winds from the south or west tomorrow will turn northwest by tomorrow night, wind speeds will be in the 10 to 20 mph range with gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Monday through Wednesday (February 8-10)

Light snow chances will linger on Monday as low pressure passes over the Central/Eastern Great Lakes.  Mainly dry for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Colder temperatures on the way with highs on Monday in the single digits and teens, highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the single digits below to teens above zero.  Low temperatures Monday night will range from the single digits and teens below to single digits above zero.  Lows Tuesday night will be in the single digits, teens and 20s below.

Note:  Gusty winds will continue Monday and Tuesday with bitterly cold wind chills along with some blowing and drifting snow especially in open areas.  Lake effect snow showers are also expected Monday and Tuesday along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

(February 11-16)

Below average temperatures are expected from the 11th-14th which will be followed by near to above average temperatures on the 15th-16th.  There will be a significant blast of cold arctic air next weekend over Eastern Canada into the Northeast U.S. with the west/southwest flank of this arctic airmass possibly covering the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.  No major storms showing up during the long range.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Breezy with periods of light snow.  Light sleet, freezing rain or rain is also possible at times.  Snowfall accumulations of 1" or less.  Low 30 to 34.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

.Sunday...  Occasional light snow.  Mixed precipitation also possible mainly during the morning.  High 34 to 37.  Wind west at 15 to 20 mph.

.Sunday night...  Light snow.  Turning colder.  Low 8 to 13.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Monday...  Light snow and flurries.  Total snowfall accumulations from Sunday through Monday of around 1-2".  High 15 to 20.

.Monday night...  Flurries possible.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 0 to 5 below.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 6 to 11.

.Tuesday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 8 below to 13 below.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 5 to 10.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  22
Low:     4

Sunrise Sunday:  7:25 AM CST
Sunset Sunday:   5:20 PM CST

Tim


Friday, February 5, 2016

February 5, 2016 Weather Report - Mild temperatures this weekend with some light snow at times Saturday PM-Monday

/Issued 5:06 PM CST, Friday, February 5, 2016/

Winter weather headlines map - Source, Aerisweather.com

Ground blizzard conditions are possible Sunday and Monday across Western Minnesota and in portions of North Dakota and South Dakota.  More information at the links below.

Blizzard watch - http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=blizzard%20watch

Winter storm watch - http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20storm%20watch
















1-4" of snow could accumulate in most of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin between Saturday night and Monday.















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.





















Saturday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.





















Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  February 5, 2016

Mild early February temperatures with highs in the 20s and lower 30s today - Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies along with a few spotty flurries or light snow showers in parts of the area as a weak disturbance tracked into the Upper Midwest.  Winds today were out of the south or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 5)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies with a chance for a few snow showers or flurries as a weak area of low pressure and stationary frontal boundary remain over the Upper Midwest.  Low temperatures will be in the single digits, teens to around 20 degrees as south or west winds continue at 5 to 15 mph.

Saturday and Saturday night (February 6)

An Alberta Clipper will drop SE out of Northwestern Canada on Saturday - This low should move over Southern Manitoba Province by early Sunday morning.  Some warm advection snow is expected at times tomorrow and tomorrow night near a warm front which will be over Northern Minnesota, snowfall accumulations of around 1-2" are possible in far Northern Minnesota by late tomorrow night.  The remainder of the Northland should remain mostly dry although a few snow showers or flurries can't be ruled out especially by Saturday night.  Mild temperatures persist on Saturday with temperatures in the 20s and 30s.  Winds will be out of the south, southwest or southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Sunday through Tuesday (February 7-9)

Snow chances will continue on Sunday and Monday as low pressure and an upper level trough dig S/SE through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes - Mainly light snowfall amounts are expected with this system in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with the exception being along the South Shore of Lake Superior where heavier lake effect snow showers are possible from late Sunday night through Tuesday as colder air and north winds blow across Lake Superior.

Highs on Sunday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Sunday night ranging from the single digits below to single digits above zero across Northern Minnesota to the teens in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Highs for Monday and Tuesday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Monday night in the single digits below to teens above zero.

Note:  North winds will increase especially Monday and Tuesday - Wind gusts of 20 to as strong as 30 mph will be possible in parts of the Northland, this could cause areas of blowing and drifting snow along with bitterly cold wind chills.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(February 10-15)

Below average temperatures are forecast from the 10th-15th.  No major snow events during the long range but a minor snow event or two is possible.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Light snow showers or flurries possible mainly during the evening.  Low 12 to 17.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 27 to 32.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday night...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries possible.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday...  Occasional snow showers and flurries.  High 30 to 33.

.Sunday night...  Occasional snow showers and flurries.  Low 10 to 15.

.Monday...  Occasional snow showers and flurries.  Total snowfall accumulations from Sunday through Monday of around 1-2".  High 15 to 20.

.Monday night...  Flurries possible.  Low 0 to 5 below.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 10 to 15.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  22
Low:     3

Sunrise Saturday:  7:27 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   5:19 PM CST

Tim






Wednesday, February 3, 2016

February 3, 2016 Weather Report - Light snow showers on the way for Thursday; More chances for light snow on Friday and again late this weekend

/Issued 4:49 PM CST, Wednesday, February 3, 2016/

24-hour snowfall map ending this morning, February 3, 2016.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.















Tuesday's storm also had a severe side which is fairly typical.  Over a dozen tornado reports centered on Mississippi and Alabama yesterday.  Filtered storm reports map for February 2, 2016.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Red dots=Tornado reports
Blue dots=Damaging wind reports (58+ mph)















Over 100 warnings were issued on Tuesday by the National Weather Service.  Source, http://www.nws.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/index.html

Red polygons=Tornado warning
Blue polygons=Severe thunderstorm warning
Green=Flash flood warning













Ice coverage remains well below average over the Great Lakes this winter.  As of February 2, 2016 only 5.8% of the Great Lakes was covered by ice; One year ago ice coverage was at 38%; 2 years ago ice coverage was at a whopping 62%.

Only 1.2% of Lake Superior was covered by ice as of February 3, 2016.  The average from 1973-2014 is 20% in early February.  Source, http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/glcfs.php?lake=s&ext=swt&type=N&hr=06

Here's some ice coverage charts for Lake Superior starting with 2011-2012 which had low ice coverage - Similar to this winter at least so far.
















2013-2014 had a tremendous amount of ice over Lake Superior with some ice lingering into early June!
















2014-2015 was also a good year for a lot of ice over Lake Superior

















Now lets look at 2015-2016, not much ice that's for sure!
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Thursday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Snowfall report for February 2-3, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Gile, WI (Iron County)  15.1"
3 NW of Butternut, WI (Ashland County)  12.0"
1 WSW of Saxon, WI (Iron County)  11.0"
Ashland, WI (Ashland County)  8.7"
Stone Lake, WI (Sawyer County)  8.0"

Springbrook, WI (Washburn County)  8.0"
3 E of Glidden, WI (Ashland County)  8.0"
3 WNW of Clam Lake, WI (Bayfield County)  8.0"
2 SE of Spooner, WI (Washburn County)  7.5"
Shell Lake, WI (Washburn County)  7.0"

4 NNW of New Post, WI (Sawyer County)  7.0"
Mercer, WI (Iron County)  7.0"
1 E of La Pointe, WI (Ashland County)  6.4"
2 SSW of Poplar, WI (Douglas County)  5.5"
Rock Creek, MN (Pine County)  4.5"

3 E of Sand Bay, WI (Bayfield County)  4.5"
1 SSW of Grantsburg, WI (Burnett County)  4.3"
5 SE of Phillips, WI (Price County)  4.0"
5 S of Herbster, WI (Bayfield County)  3.8"
3 SE of Superior, WI (Douglas County)  3.4"

3 SW of Lester Park, MN (St. Louis County)  2.8"
Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  2.4"  National Weather Service total.
Holyoke, MN (Carlton County)  2.2"
4 ENE of Alger, MN (Lake County)  2.1"
2 NE of Lutsen, MN (Cook County)  2.0"

2 E of Esko, MN (Carlton County)  2.0"
3 NNE of Finland, MN (Lake County)  1.9"
3 ENE of Wright, MN (Carlton County)  1.6"

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  February 3, 2016

Low pressure of 996mb has moved into Eastern Canada this afternoon in its wake skies were mostly sunny in most of Northeast Minnesota late this afternoon while mostly cloudy skies lingered in portions of Northwest Wisconsin with lingering snow showers and flurries especially along the South Shore of Lake Superior.  High temperatures today were in the teens and 20s with gusty northwest winds in the 15-30 mph range.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 3)

Clear to partly cloudy skies this evening followed by increasing cloudiness from west to east later in the night.  Areas of snow showers and flurries are possible toward daybreak in parts of the Northland as a weak system approaches from the west/northwest.  Low temperatures will fall into the single digits below to teens above zero with teens below possible in the typical cold spots.  Winds will shift from the northwest to the south/southeast later in the night.

Thursday and Thursday night (February 4)

A weak low pressure system will pass through the Upper Midwest tomorrow - Occasional light snow showers and flurries on Thursday with total snowfall accumulations generally less than 1".  Mainly dry for Thursday night.  Expect mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies tomorrow with highs in the teens and 20s.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies tomorrow night with lows in the single digits and teens.  South winds Thursday morning will turn west or northwest Thursday afternoon-evening, wind speeds will be in the 10 to 20 mph range.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

Friday through Sunday (February 5-7)

A period of light snow is possible Friday afternoon or evening with minor snowfall accumulations possible in parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as another area of low pressure moves across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  Temperatures for Friday and Friday night will be in the teens and 20s.

Most of the area should be dry on Saturday but as winds turn to the east/southeast, lake effect snow showers could develop along the North Shore of Lake Superior from Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

A clipper approaching from the northwest could bring some snow to the Northland from late Saturday night into Sunday with lake enhanced snow possible on Sunday along the North Shore of Lake Superior mainly over Cook County.

High temperatures on Saturday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Saturday night in the single digits to the 20s.  Highs on Sunday will be in the 20s with some locations possibly climbing into the 30s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(February 8-13)

Snow showers and flurries will be possible on Monday (8th) as low pressure moves over the Great Lakes - Gusty north/northwest winds behind this low will help to usher in a colder airmass for the early-mid part of next week.  Bitterly cold wind chills are also expected for next Monday and Tuesday with wind chill headlines looking like a good bet right now.  Below average temperatures are forecast from the 8th-13th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear with increasing cloudiness late.  Snow showers or flurries possible toward daybreak.  Low 2 below to 3 above.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming south late.

.Thursday...  Snow showers and flurries mainly before Noon.  Snowfall accumulations less than 1".  Considerable cloudiness.  High 21 to 26.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph becoming west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 7 to 12.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible by the afternoon.  High 20 to 25.

.Friday night...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible.  Low 10 to 15.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 17 to 22.

.Saturday night...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible late.  Low 17 to 22.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  21
Low:     3

Sunrise Thursday:  7:29 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   5:16 PM CST

Tim