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Wednesday, February 22, 2017

6-10"+ snow totals south of the Northland late Thursday night-Friday. Rain and Snow this evening (Around one inch of snow possible) Dry and cooler but still above average temps for Thursday

/Issued 4:48 PM CST, Wednesday, February 22, 2017/

Here's my preliminary snowfall potential map for Friday -- The heaviest snow still looks like it'll be south of the Northland but some snow accumulation is possible in parts of eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, mostly south of Duluth and Superior.












Latest winter weather headlines map.  Source:  http://www.weather.gov/crh/

Blue area=Winter Storm Watch
Green area=Blizzard Watch

Note:  Most of these headlines are in effect from Thursday evening through Friday night.















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov




















Thursday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov




















Record events for February 21, 2017

*Duluth, Minnesota -- Record warm low temperature tied.  Low temperature was 33 degrees which ties the previous record warm low temperature of 33 degrees which was set in 1878.  Note:  High temperature of 50 degrees on February 21st tied for 2nd warmest high temperature on record.  The record high is 57 degrees which was set in 1877.

*International Falls, Minnesota -- Record warm low temperature of 31 degrees.  The old record was 29 degrees set in 1981.  Note:  High temperature of 45 degrees on February 21st tied with 1984 for 2nd warmest high temperature on record.  The record high is 50 degrees which was set in 2000.

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

More mild temperatures today with highs ranging from the 50s in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin to the 30s across northern Minnesota.  Mostly cloudy skies were found over the area this afternoon with a few peeks of sun from time to time.

There's been some rain moving through parts of north central Minnesota this afternoon with even a few isolated thunderstorms mainly toward the Brainerd Lakes area.  A fairly strong disturbance is moving east through the upper Midwest this afternoon while a cold front also tracks southeast across the Northland -- This combined with weak amounts of elevated instability, steep mid level lapse rates and decent frontogenesis has led to the rain that has fallen this afternoon over parts of the Northland.

A band of precipitation will continue to track generally toward the east affecting parts of the Northland this evening -- Precipitation will likely start as rain but should transition to a period of snow before ending later this evening or toward midnight.  Note:  There is a chance for brief bursts of moderate to even heavy snowfall at some point this evening especially along and or slightly north/south of the Highway 2 corridor.  A quick 1 to 2 inches of snow is possible this evening where-ever this snow band sets up.

Low temperatures tonight will mainly be in the 20s with teens possible in far northern Minnesota.

Mainly dry weather is expected in our area for Thursday but there will be a cold front which will slowly push south out of Ontario Canada while the storm that has been showing up for days now finally moves out into the central Plains by Thursday night.  High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 20s and 30s with near 40 degree temperatures in far southern portions of the Northland.

Obviously the big focus remains on the well advertised winter storm for late this week.  Looking at the computer models shows all but the NAM and SREF targeting southern Minnesota and western/central portions of Wisconsin for the heaviest snowfall of 6-10 inches with locally higher amounts.  The NAM and SREF models remain a lot farther north with the storm track and associated band of heavy snow with most of the Northland getting a fairly significant winter storm based on those two model solutions -- Throw them out! Flush them down the toilet! Past experience says to go with the EURO and the other forecast models that keep this storm on a more southerly track.  Speaking of the European model, it really hasn't budged on it's projected storm track for several days now.  So one of the models will bust big time with this storm and I'm pretty confident that it will be the NAM that will bust!

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Occasional rain mixing with and changing to snow before ending later this evening.  Snowfall of around one inch possible.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind northeast becoming north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  27
Low:     9

Sunrise Thursday:  6:58 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   5:46 PM CST

Tim






Update on the late week winter storm

/Issued 4:32 AM CST, Wednesday, February 22, 2017/
















Just a quick update early this morning in regards to the winter storm for late Thursday through Friday.

-The last few runs of the NAM appear to be way too far north with the storm track and as a result it brings significant amounts of snow to most of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

-The GFS model although also on a more northerly track still keeps the swath of heaviest snowfall mainly over eastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin with Duluth pretty much on the border between light snow and heavy snow.

-The European model is the farthest south/east model of them all and it's hard to ignore that trend considering this storm is only a day or so away from happening, and the EURO hasn't really budged with its storm track.  Past experience says to lean more toward the EURO than what the NAM or GFS shows.

-So having said that I still think the heaviest snowfall will stay south of Duluth and Superior with the southern half of Minnesota through western and central Wisconsin having the greatest potential for snowfall of 6-10 inches with locally higher amounts possible from late Thursday through Friday.

Tim

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

Possible rain showers changing to snow showers Wed night; Late week storm track shifting north a bit (Snow chances increasing in parts of the Northland late Thursday-Friday)

/Issued 5:04 PM CST, Tuesday, February 21, 2017/

Source:  https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov

18z HRRRX model


















The storm for late this week has been showing up on the computer models for many many days, but the storm track has been changing quite a bit over the past few days (that is pretty typical though) There was a noticeable southward shift in the storm track 24 hours ago which would've resulted in little or no snow in the Northland, but today the storm track has been shifting back to the north, in fact a few of the models have really shifted this thing to the north (GFS, GEFS and NAM) if that holds up, then east central Minnesota, northwest Wisconsin and the Twin Ports vicinity would likely pick up a significant amount of snow from Thursday night into Friday.  Stay tuned!
















Source:  http://www.weather.gov/crh/

Blue area=Winter Storm Watch for Thursday and Friday.  Some expansion in the watch to the north is possible by Thursday.















Friday's storm will have snow (possible blizzard conditions) on one side of the low, while on the other side of the low a risk for severe thunderstorms (Yellow shaded area on map)  Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/













Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov




















Wednesday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov




















Rainfall map from February 20, 2017.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu
















Record Events for February 20, 2017

*Record warm low temperature at Duluth, Minnesota.  New record:  37 degrees.  Old record:  33 degrees set in 1954.  Note:  This is the 7th time so far this year with either a record warm low temperature, or a record warm low temperature that was tied.

*Record warm low temperature at International Falls, Minnesota.  New record:  35 degrees.  Old record:  32 degrees set in 1915.  Note:  The high temperature of 46 degrees on Monday made it the second warmest February 20th on record.  The warmest on record is 48 degrees set in 1990.

Final rainfall reports from February 20, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Hovland, MN:  1.17"
Grand Marais, MN 4 W:  1.13"
Grand Portage, MN 4 W:  1.08"
Lutsen, MN:  1.07"
Aurora, MN:  1.00"
Two Harbors, MN 3 W:  0.94"
Winter, WI 4 NW:  0.91"
Cotton, MN 3 SE:  0.90"
Sarona, WI:  0.90"
Lester Park MN 2 SW:  0.89"
Hayward, WI:  0.88"
Clam Lake, WI 3 W:  0.86"
Park Falls, WI 1 N:  0.86"
Butternut, WI 3 N:  0.85"
Littlefork, MN:  0.83"
Esko, MN 1 ESE:  0.82"
Taft, MN:  0.80"
Duluth, MN 2 NE:  0.79"
Floodwood, MN:  0.79"
Phillips, WI:  0.78"
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.77"
Chisholm, MN:  0.77"
Minong, WI 7 WNW:  0.75"
Glidden, WI:  0.74"
Scanlon, MN:  0.73"
South Range, WI 3 ENE:  0.71"
Brainerd, MN:  0.70"
Superior, WI (Airport)  0.63"
International Falls, MN:  0.62"
Siren, WI:  0.60"
Ashland, WI:  0.45"

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Low clouds and fog earlier in the day gave way to some sunshine in most of the Northland this afternoon although some mid level clouds were passing through parts of the area.  Another very mild day with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s, pretty amazing that it is still this warm considering there was a cold frontal passage that occurred Monday night.

Generally mostly cloudy sky conditions are expected through Wednesday night.  There will be an area of low pressure that is forecast to move east or east/southeast across the northern Plains and upper Midwest while a cold front moves southeast through the area on Wednesday.  Some precipitation will develop at times through Wednesday night with precipitation types of rain, snow or even some freezing rain possible in far northern Minnesota while mostly rain occurs farther south until Wednesday evening when the rain could mix with or change to snow.  Note:  Not expecting a lot of rain, ice or snow with this system with snowfall generally of a half inch to two inches possible over some parts of the area with most of that snow falling Wednesday night the way it looks now.

Also of interest for Wednesday is the fact there is some elevated CAPE passing through the area with values of around 100-300 j/kg -- This coupled with steep mid level lapse rates might be just enough to produce an isolated thunderstorm especially south of Highway 2.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the 30s with a few spots in extreme northern Minnesota possibly falling into the upper 20s.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the 30s and 40s with 50s in far southern areas.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible.  A few showers possible mainly after midnight.  Low 33 to 37.  Wind northeast around 10 mph.

.Wednesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional showers possible.  Perhaps a rumble of thunder.  High 37 to 42.  Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  26
Low:     9

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:00 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   5:44 PM CST

Tim










Monday, February 20, 2017

0.25" to 0.50"+ rain totals in the Northland today. Rain and fog continues this evening; 40s and 50s with some afternoon sun for Tuesday

/Issued 4:47 PM CST, Monday, February 20, 2017/

All those colored dots on the image below represent lightning strikes from today, February 20th, 2017.  Source:  https://www.lightningmaps.org
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov




















Tuesday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov




















If you don't want snow, well you're in luck, the system for late this week continues to trend south meaning little if any snow for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  For those wanting a snowstorm just remember there's still March and even April to get a good size snowstorm around here.  This just hasn't been our winter for a large snow event around here.

















Preliminary rainfall reports from February 20, 2017
Source:  http://mesowest.utah.edu

Note:  Totals listed below are through around 4 PM today.

Moose Lake, MN:  0.56"
Hinckley, MN:  0.56"
Hill City, MN:  0.55"
Two Harbors, MN:  0.54"
Pine River, MN:  0.51"
Brainerd, MN:  0.50"
Effie, MN:  0.49"
Littlefork, MN:  0.48"
International Falls, MN:  0.47"
Grand Rapids, MN:  0.46"
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.43"
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN:  0.41"
Aitkin, MN:  0.40"
Minong, WI:  0.40"
Superior, WI:  0.37"
Orr, MN:  0.36"
Solon Springs, WI:  0.36"
McGregor, MN:  0.36"
Saginaw, MN:  0.35"
Siren, WI:  0.35"
Isabella, MN:  0.31"
Silver Bay, MN:  0.30"
Hayward, WI:  0.29"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.28"
Clam Lake, WI:  0.27"
Barnes, WI:  0.26"
Phillips, WI:  0.25"
Ely, MN:  0.23"
Washburn, WI:  0.21"
Glidden, WI:  0.21"
Ashland, WI:  0.12"

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

There was an area of low pressure sitting northwest of Minnesota late this afternoon.  A cold front attached to this low extended south into western portions of Minnesota.  A very moist airmass was found ahead of this system today with record level PWAT values ranging from 1.00" to as high as 1.20", this high moisture content combined with the forcing associated with the low and cold front helped to generate widespread light rain with bands of heavier rain across the Northland today.  There were even a few thunderstorms that rumbled through parts of the area especially this morning and early this afternoon.  Unseasonably mild temperatures continued today with highs in the 40s except around Lake Superior where highs topped out in the mid to upper 30s.

Low pressure will move into northwest Ontario Province by daybreak while a cold front sweeps through the Northland this evening -- Rain continues before midnight with mainly dry weather then expected overnight.  Note:  Areas of fog will also be found over the area tonight into Tuesday morning, some of the fog could be dense with visibility less than one mile.

Skies should clear a bit for Tuesday but there will be another fast moving but weak system scooting east out of the northern Plains which could produce a few showers in parts of the area later in the day or Tuesday night.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the 20s and 30s with highs Tuesday in the 40s and 50s.

Another area of low pressure is forecast to move through the northern Plains and upper Midwest on Wednesday, this one could produce some rain or a rain/snow mixture in parts of the Northland with light snowfall accumulations possible mainly north of Highway 2 in northeast Minnesota.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Rain before midnight with some fog.  Partly to mostly cloudy after midnight with areas of fog still possible.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph becoming west overnight.

.Tuesday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Areas of fog possible early.  High 48 to 53.  Wind west to southwest at 15 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  26
Low:     8

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:02 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   5:43 PM CST

Tim






Sunday, February 19, 2017

Rain, few t-storms on the way for Monday (Rainfall amounts 0.25"-0.50", locally higher amounts likely)

/Issued 4:09 PM CST, Sunday, February 19, 2017/

Source:  18z HRRRX model; https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov


















Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/













Here's the latest on the potential winter storm for late this week.  Still looks like the main impacts from this storm would remain south of the Northland unless the storm track shifts farther north in coming days.  Stay tuned.
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov




















Monday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov




















Temperature departure map for the week of February 12th.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu




















Precipitation departure map for the week of February 12th.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu





















Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

February 12-18, 2017

High temperatures:

*=Tied record high temperature

2/12:  35 F/+12 degrees above normal
2/13:  42 F/+19 degrees above normal
2/14:  35 F/+11 degrees above normal
2/15:  25 F/+1 degree above normal
2/16:  32 F/+8 degrees above normal
2/17:  *52 F/+27 degrees above normal
2/18:  52 F/+27 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

*=Record warm low temperature

2/12:  22 F/+17 degrees above normal
2/13:  20 F/+15 degrees above normal
2/14:  18 F/+12 degrees above normal
2/15:  9 F/+3 degrees above normal
2/16:  20 F/+14 degrees above normal
2/17:  23 F/+16 degrees above normal
2/18:  *36 F/+29 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  Trace
Normal:  0.19"
Departure:  -0.19" below normal

*Record event*

Duluth, Minnesota -- A record warm low temperature on February 18, 2017.  New record:  36 degrees; Old record 35 degrees set in 1981.  Note:  This is the 6th time so far this year with either a record warm low temperature or a record low temperature that was tied.

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin


One last dry day before the rain moves in.  A mix of sun/clouds over the Northland today with more unseasonably warm temperatures as highs topped out in the mid 40s to mid 50s with mid and upper 30s around Lake Superior.

Low pressure organizing over the northern/central Rockies this afternoon will move northeast into the northern Plains by Monday morning, this low will then continue to lift northeast reaching the Manitoba-Ontario border by Monday evening.  A warm front and cold front attached to this low will pass through the Northland through Monday night.

A very moist airmass will surge into the Northland on Monday as PWATS climb to between 0.90" and 1.25" (That's a decent amount of moisture in the summer, but is even more impressive considering that its February!)

Elevated instability will also increase beginning later tonight, peaking on Monday with CAPE of around 100-300 j/kg possible over parts of the area.

Will see a few showers develop later tonight with rain becoming more widespread across the area Monday into Monday evening before the rain comes to an end from west to east Monday night.

Isolated thunderstorms are also expected to develop late tonight into Monday.  These storms will be capable of producing some lightning along with brief heavy downpours.

Lows tonight will be in the 30s to lower 40s.  Highs on Monday in the 40s and 50s with 30s and 40s near Lake Superior.  Lows Monday night will be in the 20s and 30s.

Looks mainly dry on Tuesday with highs in the 40s and 50s.  The next low pressure system that may affect us comes on Wednesday, this one could bring some rain or snow to parts of the Northland depending on its track.  At the moment it looks like the greatest potential for snow or a rain/snow mix would be north of Highway 2 in northeast Minnesota with light snowfall accumulations possible.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  A few showers possible toward daybreak.  Low 33 to 36.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Monday...  Breezy.  A few showers possible during the morning.  Rain during the afternoon.  Isolated thunderstorms possible.  Areas of fog.  High 42 to 47 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 15 to 25 mph.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  26
Low:     8

Sunrise Monday:  7:04 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   5:41 PM CST

Tim