Thursday, July 24, 2014

July 24, 2014 Weather Report - Scattered showers/t-storms possible at times thru Friday Evening; 80s ahead for Saturday; Turns cooler Sunday.

/Issued 4:12 PM CDT Thursday, July 24, 2014/

July 2014 climate data for Duluth, MN Airport location
Note:  Data is thru the 23rd.

Average monthly temperature:  66.4 degrees
Departure:  0.8 degrees warmer than normal

Total precipitation:  2.77"
Departure:  0.19" below normal

22 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 70F.

Total precipitation since June 1:  7.24"
Departure:  0.05" above normal

Total precipitation since January 1:  19.67"
Departure:  3.56" above normal

Weather Summary for July 24, 2014
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A nice summer day for most of us with highs generally in the 70s except for 60s closer to the North Shore.  Dew points were in the comfy 50s and winds were mostly out of the south or east at 10 to 15 mph.  Sky conditions varied from mostly sunny to mostly cloudy, there was actually quite a bit of high level cloudiness over the area Today due to an area of thunderstorms which has been tracking southeast through the Western half of Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Tonight through Friday Night:

Low pressure will be moving into the region from the west along with an occluded front which is forecast to move through the Northland Friday Afternoon/Night.

Southerly flow ahead of this system will draw a more humid and unstable airmass into the Northland.  Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the area Tonight and Friday AM.  Instability will be pretty marginal during that time so any thunderstorm that does develop should be on the weak side.

A few showers and thunderstorms could redevelop Friday PM and by that time there could be sufficient amounts of instability combined with 30 to 40 knots of deep layer shear to produce at least an isolated risk for severe thunderstorms over the Northland with hail and high winds being the primary hazards.

Low temperatures Tonight and Friday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.  Highs Friday will be in the 70s but a few spots might make it into the 80s if skies clear out long enough, expect cooler temperatures along the North Shoe of Lake Superior.

Winds will be out of the south, east, or west through Friday Night at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast for Saturday and Sunday:

Temperatures on Saturday should be on the warm side before a cooler airmass settles into the Northland on Sunday.  Low pressure and an upper level trough will dig into the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes this weekend and this system could generate a few spotty showers or thunderstorms from Saturday Afternoon into Saturday Night.  Sunday could also feature some showers at times as a cold upper trough moves through.

Highs on Saturday will be in the 70s and 80s with highs Sunday in the 60s to around 70.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the 50s.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Normal temperatures for Today in Duluth

High:  77
Low:   56

Sunrise Friday:  5:40 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   8:49 PM CDT

Tim

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

UPDATED July 21-22, 2014 storm and rainfall reports from around the Northland

Rainfall report for July 22, 2014
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, MN

Duluth, MN:  0.31"
International Falls, MN:  1.66"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.54"
Hibbing, MN:  0.29"
Ashland, WI:  0.70"
4 S of Bruno, MN:  0.43"
Cass Lake, MN:  0.62"
Togo, MN:  1.56"
Babbitt, MN:  1.01"
Cook, MN:  1.20"
Grand Portage, MN:  1.52"
Kabetogama, MN:  1.48"
3 E of Orr, MN:  1.45"
2 S of Tower, MN:  0.59"
3 S of Ashland, WI:  0.59"
Upson, WI:  0.65"
Gurney, WI:  0.35"
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  0.76"
Gordon, WI:  0.57"
Solon Springs, WI:  0.48"

Local Storm Reports for July 21-22, 2014
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, MN

12:14 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  45MPH.  5 E of Squaw Lake, MN Itasca County.

12:14 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  45MPH.  6 S of Cohasset, MN Itasca County.

12:29 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Aitkin, MN Aitkin County.  Trees down.

12:29 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Hill City, MN Aitkin County.  Trees down.

12:29 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  50MPH.  McGregor, MN Aitkin County.

12:47 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Hill City, MN Aitkin County.  8" diameter tree down blocking Highway 169.  Power outage.

12:47 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  5 E of Squaw Lake, MN:  Dead tree 14-16" in diameter down.

12:47 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE/GUST:  70MPH.  Aitkin, MN Aitkin County.  Numerous trees down across the County.

1:09 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Grand Lake, MN St. Louis County.  Power outage.

1:23 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST:  50MPH.  Duluth, MN St. Louis County.

1:36 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Eveleth, MN St. Louis County.  Power lines down on route 53 and 37.

12:30 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Big Sandy Lake, MN Aitkin County.  Several trees down 12 feet in diameter.

2:29 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Duluth Heights, MN St. Louis County.  Power outage.

2:24 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  46MPH.  Ashland, WI Ashland County.

1:30 AM CDT:  MARINE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  46MPH.  Duluth, MN.

1:24 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Babbitt, MN St. Louis County.  Trees and power lines down.

1:24 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Embarrass, MN St. Louis County.  Trees and power lines down.

11:40 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Littlefork, MN Koochiching County.  Several trees down.

3:56 AM CDT:  0.75" HAIL.  20 E of Hayward, WI Sawyer County.  Hail covered the ground.

2:00 AM CDT:  MARINE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  1 N of Port Wing, WI 38MPH.

12:09 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  8 N of Togo, MN Koochiching County.  Trees down.

12:18 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  10 N of Togo, MN Koochiching County.  Trees down.

12:42 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE/GUST:  74MPH.  4 NE of Floodwood, MN St. Louis County.  Trees down and property damage.

1:15 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Rice Lake Twp, MN St. Louis County.  6-12" diameter aspen tree snapped.

2:22 AM CDT:  MARINE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  45MPH.  6 N of Devils Island, WI.

11:50 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  5 S of Crosslake, MN Crow Wing County.  Tree down.  Pontoon boat flipped on Horseshoe Lake.

2:00 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Iron River, WI Bayfield County.  4-5" diameter tree limbs down.  Corn flattened.

2:25 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Sea Gull Lake, MN Cook County.  Trees down near the end of the Gunflint Trail near Seagull Lake.

2:15 AM CDT:  MARINE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  61MPH.  Devils Island, WI.

1:02 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  3 S of Eveleth, MN St Louis County.  Couple structures just west of Highway 53 damaged.  Some walls torn off.

1:03 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  3 SSE of Eveleth, MN St. Louis County.  Damage at the Eveleth-Virginia Municipal Airport.  1 hanger and the plane inside destroyed.  2 other hangers damaged.  1 garage roof blown off.

1:03 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  3 SE of Eveleth, MN St. Louis County.  Lots of large trees down.

At least 5 people were injured in the early Morning storms at a campsite in the BWCA per NNCNOW.

At 3:30 AM Today 14,200 Lake Country Power customers were without power.  8,100+ Minnesota Power customers had no power.  Source DNT.

Note:  Additional storm reports could come into the NWS thru the day so I may need to add to this list.

Some additional storm reports from late Monday Night/Tuesday AM

11:08 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  10 S of Birchdale, MN Koochiching County.  2 trees across road 86.

11:26 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  1 NNW of Federal Dam, MN Cass County.  Numerous trees uprooted and some sheared off above ground.

11:37 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Nisswa, MN Crow Wing County.  Lots of trees blown down.

11:45 PM CDT:  0.25" HAIL.  3 N of Brainerd, MN.

11:46 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  2 SW of International Falls, MN Koochiching County.  More than 200 trees blown down at country club.  Parts of roof on the outdoor deck by clubhouse ended up on number 18 tee.

11:48 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  W International Falls, MN Koochiching County.  Carport and woodshed blown down and destroyed.

12:30 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Big Sandy Lake, MN Aitkin County.  Tree fell on an RV.  Boat dock demolished.

12:57 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  *****3 INJURIES*****  30 NW of Ely, MN St. Louis County.  Campers injured tree falling on campsite on Loon Lake.

1:03 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  *****2 INJURIES*****  29 NNW of Ely, MN St. Louis County.  Tree fell onto a tent at Lady Boot Bay of Lac La Croix Lake.

1:07 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  2 S of Esko, MN Carlton County.  A few trees about 6" in diameter blown down. 

1:18 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  West Duluth, MN St. Louis County.  Large tree blown over fell onto fence.

1:21 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  E Superior, WI Douglas County.  Large tree limb fell onto a garage.

1:22 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Congdon Park, MN St. Louis County.  Pine tree blown over road near intersection of Vermillion Road and Lakeview drive in Duluth.

1:38 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  3 NNE of Poplar, WI Douglas County.  Several structures damaged.  Shingles peeled off.  Soffits uplifted.

1:46 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  6 S of Ely, MN St. Louis County.  Substanial tree damage on CR 120 near Airport.  Trees snapped off halfway up.

2:04 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  *****1 INJURY*****  20 E of Ely, MN Lake County.  Tree fell onto campsite.

Note:  As of 11:02 AM Today, Wednesday, July 23, 2014 per Duluth News Tribune.  Search finds no additional injuries in the Boundary Waters.

Tim

Monday, July 21, 2014

July 21, 2014 - 8 PM Weather Update

Based on recent and current short term models of the HRRR and HopWRF it appears that thunderstorms will begin to affect the Twin Ports around 12 or 1 AM with a threat then continuing at times through the Overnight hours. 

As of 8 PM severe thunderstorms were heading east through Eastern North Dakota with additional development over NW Minnesota.  All of this activity will be spreading east and into the Northland during the rest of Tonight.

There will be ample amounts of instability and moisture in place to support both a severe and heavy rain threat later Tonight with damaging straight line winds being the main hazard with hail a secondary hazard.  This line of storms will likely be bowed out in a few areas and this could enhance the damaging wind threat with gusts possibly to 70 mph.  The Brainerd Lakes area through North Central Minnesota is one area where pockets of wind damage, possibly significant could occur later Tonight.

Be sure you have a way to be notified should a watch or warning be issued for your area Tonight.  If you have a NOAA weather radio be sure to have it set to the ON position so you're able to be woken up should a watch or warning be issued for the county you live in.

Tim

July 21, 2014 - 1 PM Weather Update

/Issued 1:27 PM CDT Monday July 21, 2014/

Well the heat is on!

1 PM heat index or feels like temperature around the Northland:

Duluth Harbor, MN:  96F
Duluth Airport, MN:  90F
Longville, MN:  91F
Orr, MN:  92F
Hibbing, MN:  93F
Eveleth, MN:  92F
Silver Bay, MN:  92F
Aitkin, MN:  97F
Pine River, MN:  91F
Brainerd, MN:  91F
Moose Lake, MN:  90F
Hinckley, MN:  92F
McGregor, MN:  92F
Superior, WI:  95F
Ashland, WI:  92F
Hayward, WI:  90F
Siren, WI:  90F

Very warm temperatures in the 80s and low 90s will continue into the early Evening hours over Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, it may however turn cooler below the hill in the Twin Ports later Today as winds back toward the east as low pressure moves through the Dakotas.  Dew points will hold in the 65 to 77 degree range which will lead to heat index temperatures in the 90s to low 100s over parts of the Northland through early Evening.

The other big story besides the heat and humidity is the potential for severe thunderstorms from late This Afternoon through the Overnight hours.

Low pressure tracks ENE through the Northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest Tonight while a cold front which currently sits over far NW Minnesota sags slowly toward the SE.  There is also a pretty strong disturbance which will track east out of the Northern Rockies Tonight.  As this system moves east it will interact with a very unstable airmass and this could lead to an active night of weather over the Northland.

I do have some concerns with the cap or warm temperatures aloft as 700mb temps are sitting in the +10 to +12C range as of midday and these temperatures could hold steady through much of the night per model guidance.  The result from this is that most of the storms could stay across Northern Minnesota, Borderland, and Arrowhead regions or riding on the north edge of the cap.  The other scenario would be for the storms to drive right through the cap and this would mean that thunderstorms would also affect areas farther south including the Brainerd Lakes, Twin Ports, I35 corridor, and most of Northwest Wisconsin.

Make sure you have a way to be notified should a watch or warning be issued for your area. 

The potential is there for a severe weather event with damaging winds and heavy rain being the primary risks, that doesn't mean it will happen nor that every single city, town, neighborhood will be hit, but it's always better to be prepared just in case.

Tim

Sunday, July 20, 2014

July 20, 2014 Weather Report - Heat Advisory for parts of the Northland on Monday; T-storms possible at times through Monday Night some could be severe.

/Issued 6:28 PM CDT Sunday, July 20, 2014/

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A warm and muggy day across the Northland with highs in the 80s to near 90 degrees with dew points in the 60s to lower 70s.  Afternoon heat indices climbed into the 90s in parts of the area.  Winds were out of the south at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.  Relief from the warm temperatures could be found along the North Shore of Lake Superior Today where high temps stayed in the 60s thanks to an onshore wind.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Valid through Monday Night July 21, 2014

The atmosphere will remain very unstable during the next 24-30 hours with CAPE values in the 1500 to 4000 j/kg range with pockets of CAPE of around 5000 j/kg possible.  Lifted Indices will range from -3 to -11C.  Mid level winds will be around 30-40 knots with stronger winds off to our northwest.  Deep layer shear should be around 30 knots.  All of these ingredients are sufficient for severe thunderstorm development, but warm temperatures aloft have so far kept thunderstorms from developing Today. 

A surface trough was over NW Minnesota early This Evening and that boundary may help to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms over the Northland Tonight, if storms are able to develop they could be severe with hail and strong winds, the main threat for severe weather Tonight should remain over Northern Minnesota, Iron Range, and Borderland areas.

The focus Monday and Monday Night will be on an area of low pressure which is forecast to track ENE out of the Dakotas.  This low combined with a frontal boundary which will sag slowly south out of Northwest Minnesota will be the focal point for one or more rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the Northland.  Severe thunderstorms could develop Monday and or Monday Night with strong winds and hail being the primary hazards.

Keep an eye to the sky and be sure you have a way to be notified if any watches or warnings are  issued through Monday Night.  Stay weather aware.  And remember when thunder roars get indoors.

There will also be a threat for heavy rain due to the tropical levels of humidity that will be in place with dew points of 65 to 75 degrees and PWATS of 1.50"+  Locations that see multiple rounds of storms could easily pick up 1 to 3" of rain by Tuesday AM.

The other big story will be the brief warm wave.  Lows Tonight and Monday Night will be in the 60s and 70s with highs Monday in the 80s and 90s.  Heat index values or feels like temperatures are expected to climb into the mid 90s to around 100 degrees over portions of the Northland Monday Afternoon and Evening for this reason a Heat Advisory has been issued for Central and Southern St. Louis...Carlton...Pine...Aitkin...Crow Wing...Cass...and Southern Itasca Counties in Minnesota and for Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland..Burnett...Washburn...and Sawyer Counties in Wisconsin. 

Cooler and less humid weather returns by mid week with dry weather as well as an area of high pressure passes through the region.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

Event:  *HEAT ADVISORY*
Timing:  11 AM Monday until 9 PM Monday.

.Tonight...  Muggy and hazy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers or thunderstorms possible late.  Low 63 to 68 but cooler closer to Lake Superior.  Wind south at 10 to 20 mph inland and east near Lake Superior.

.Monday...  Muggy and hazy.  Partly cloudy.  High 83 to 88 but it may be cooler closer to Lake Superior.  Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.  Afternoon heat index values in the 90s.

.Monday Night...  Muggy with showers and thunderstorms possible.  Low 65 to 70.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Showers possible.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 71 to 76.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 52 to 57.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 72 to 77.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  77
Low:   56

Sunrise Monday:  5:36 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   8:54 PM CDT

Tim