Thursday, June 30, 2016

June 30, 2016: Rainfall and storm reports from around the Northland today; Cool tonight; Around 70 with lots of sun Friday

/Issued 5:35 PM CDT, Thursday, June 30, 2016/
















Low temperature forecast for tonight.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















High temperature forecast for Friday.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Local Storm Reports for June 30, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*4:30 PM CDT:  HAIL.  0.25" diameter.  2 S of Glidden, WI (Ashland County)

*1:55 PM CDT:  HAIL.  0.25" diameter.  3 NE of Hermantown, MN (St. Louis County)  Fell at the National Weather Service.

*4:35 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  31 mph.  3 N of Siren, WI (Burnett County)

*4:06 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  37 mph.  11 SSE of Brule, WI (Bayfield County)

July climate averages for Duluth, Minnesota

Temperature:  65.8 degrees
Precipitation:  3.85"

Warmest July on record:  71.9 degrees in 2006 and 2012
Coldest July on record:  59.4 degrees in 1992

Wettest July on record:  10.83" set in 1909
Driest July on record:  0.47" set in 1875

Average number of days with a high temperature of at least 70 F:  25
Average number of days with a high temperature of at least 80 F:  11

July astronomical data:

Sunrise on the 1st:  5:19 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 31st:  5:47 AM CDT

Sunset on the 1st:  9:06 PM CDT
Sunset on the 31st:  8:42 PM CDT

Rainfall report for June 30, 2016
Source:  MesoWest.com

Ashland, WI:  0.97"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.77"
Ely, MN:  0.40"
Grand Rapids, MN:  0.38"

Silver Bay, MN:  0.32"
Superior, WI:  0.23"
Two Harbors, MN:  0.19"
Cook, MN:  0.19"

Orr, MN:  0.18"
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.15"
Aitkin, MN:  0.11"

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  June 30, 2016

The final day of June brought with it some thunder boomers as cold temperatures aloft combined with warmer temperatures near the surface made the atmosphere a little unstable -- Throw in a rather vigorous upper level system which moved into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes today and you have a pretty good setup for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.  The amount of deep layer wind shear was somewhat better today vs. Wednesday but still not enough to cause any severe weather, but a few of the storms today were on the strong side with cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds, small hail and brief heavy rain.  Outside of the rain, skies were partly sunny to mostly cloudy today with high temperatures generally in the 60s to lower 70s.  Winds were out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  High.

Tonight:  Scattered showers along with a few thunderstorms will come to an end this evening.  Expect mostly cloudy skies to gradually clear out from north to south later in the night.  Lows will be in the 40s with 30s in the typical cold spots, similar to two nights ago.  Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday:  Mostly sunny skies with highs in the 60s and 70s.  Clear to partly cloudy Friday night with lows in the 40s and 50s.  Winds out of the west or northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Highs mainly in the 70s with winds turning to the south or east.

The main feature on the weather map through Saturday will be high pressure which will build southeast into the Northland.

Tim




Wednesday, June 29, 2016

June 29, 2016: Scattered showers/isolated t-storms late tonight and Thursday morning; 60s Thursday; 70s return Friday and Saturday. Severe weather stats in this post

/Issued 5:09 PM CDT, Wednesday, June 29, 2016/

A few thunderstorms have been moving through far northern Minnesota this afternoon with occasional lightning and brief heavy rainfall.
















Showers and a few thunderstorms should remain north of Duluth and Superior this evening as the activity in far northern Minnesota at 5 PM today moves slowly toward the south and east.











696 preliminary tornado reports in the U.S. so far this year; the average through June 28 is 1007.  -311 fewer tornadoes this year compared to the 2005-2015 average.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.













2016 storm reports map for Minnesota through June 28.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Red dots=Tornado reports (19)
Green dots=Hail reports (111)
Blue dots=Wind reports (104)

Note:  So far this year 234 severe weather reports in Minnesota.




















2016 storm reports map for Wisconsin through June 28.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Red dots=Tornado (4)
Green dots=Hail (31)
Blue dots=Wind (148)

Note:  So far this year 183 severe weather reports in Wisconsin.





















Low temperature forecast for tonight.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















High temperature forecast for Thursday.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Weather Tidbits:

*13 preliminary tornadoes in Minnesota this month which is near the 1989-2013 average of 15 tornadoes during the month of June.

*Below average number of tornadoes this month in Wisconsin with 3 preliminary tornado reports, the average for June is 8 tornadoes.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  June 29, 2016

A mild day with highs in the 70s to lower 80s.  Skies were partly to mostly sunny with winds out of the southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  A cold front was located just north of Minnesota late this afternoon with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms occurring near this boundary today in far northern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  High.

Tonight:  A cold front will move south into the Northland tonight.  Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be found near this front.  Brief heavy rain and occasional lightning will be the main threats out of any thunderstorm tonight.  No severe weather is expected with generally weak mid and upper level winds over the area along with a minimal amount of deep layer wind shear.  Lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s with southwest, north or northwest winds at 10 to around 20 mph.

Thursday:  Cooler temperatures on the final day of June with highs in the 60s to lower 70s along with a partly sunny to mostly cloudy sky.  A cold front will continue to move toward the south/east and should exit eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin by around Noon.  Colder temperatures aloft will move over the Northland tomorrow with 500mb temperatures of around -15 to -18 degrees Celsius - This combined with around 1000 j/kg of CAPE, Mid Level Lapse Rates near 7.0 c/km and around 35 knots of west-northwest flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere could lead to a few stronger thunderstorms tomorrow mainly in eastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.  A few showers are also possible during the day across northeast Minnesota.

Dry weather should return by Thursday night as high pressure builds southeast toward the Upper Midwest.  Lows will be in the 40s and lower 50s.  Winds tomorrow will be from the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

...Extended Forecast...

Confidence:  High.

Mainly dry for Friday and Saturday as high pressure moves over the Upper Midwest - Daytime highs are forecast to be in the 70s with lows Friday night in the 40s and 50s, lows Saturday night in the 50s to lower 60s.

The period from Sunday through Tuesday will not be a total washout but there could be a few showers and thunderstorms affecting parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin as a frontal boundary moves into the Upper Midwest along with increasing amounts of moist and unstable air.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Tonight - Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm after Midnight.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday - Cooler.  Considerable cloud cover with scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm.  High 63 to 68.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Skies will clear Thursday night with mostly sunny skies on the way for Friday.

Normal temperatures for June 30th

High:  75
Low:   53

Sunrise Thursday:  5:18 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   9:06 PM CDT

Tim


Tuesday, June 28, 2016

June 28, 2016: 70s to around 80 degrees Wednesday; A few showers/t-storms Wednesday-Thursday AM; Friday and Saturday look real nice

/Issued 5:38 PM CDT, Tuesday, June 28, 2016/

Severe weather outlook for Wednesday, June 29, 2016.  Source, WSI; Storm Prediction Center.

Not expecting any severe thunderstorms Wednesday in northeast Minnesota or northwest Wisconsin but a few showers and thunderstorms will develop first across northern Minnesota during the day, then spreading farther south/east Wednesday night.













Low temperature forecast for tonight.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.



















High temperature forecast for Wednesday.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.



















Low temperature report for June 28, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

13 NE of Clear Lake, MN:  35 F
Crane Lake, MN:  37 F
5 E of Seagull Lake, MN:  37 F
7 E of Effie, MN:  38 F
Embarrass, MN:  38 F
Orr, MN:  39 F
2 NNE of Bigfork, MN:  39 F
Ely, MN:  39 F
Bigfork, MN:  39 F
Skibo, MN:  39 F
Cook, MN:  39 F

A few more storm reports from June 25, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*5:44 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  2 N of Solon Springs, WI (Douglas County)  Live 8-10 inch diameter ash trees downed.

*5:44 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  1 N of Lake Nebagamon, WI (Douglas County)  Live 30 inch diameter poplar tree downed.  18-20 inch diameter maple and an oak tree downed.

*8:02 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  15 ENE of Fifield, WI (Price County)  A few 6-7 inch diameter trees downed.

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Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  June 28, 2016

Couldn't ask for better weather as we near the end of June.  High pressure covered the Upper Midwest today with a mix of sun and clouds but most of the area certainly had more sun today compared to Monday.  Highs were in the lower 70s which is right where the high should be in late June.  Not much wind today with a variable wind direction at around 12 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  High.

Tonight:  High pressure moves slowly south/east out of Minnesota.  Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected with lows mainly in the 50s but 40s are expected in the typical cold spots.  Winds will turn to the south or west at 5 to 15 mph.

Wednesday:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers and thunderstorms during the day mainly over northern Minnesota.  The chance of a few showers and thunderstorms will then spread farther south/east into eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Wednesday night.  A cold front will drop south out of Ontario Province and into the Northland on Wednesday with enough moisture and instability in place to support these scattered rain chances.  The potential for severe thunderstorms is very low but an isolated stronger storm could develop especially during the afternoon-evening hours across northern Minnesota.  Highs will be in the 70s to around 80 degrees with lows in the 50s to near 60 degrees.  Southwest winds tomorrow at 10 to 20 mph with southwest or north/northwest winds tomorrow night at 10 to 20 mph.

...Extended Forecast...

Cooler on Thursday with a lingering chance for showers or thunderstorms mainly in east central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin -- A cold front will exit to the south and east Thursday with high pressure building into the Upper Midwest by Friday and Saturday.

Daytime highs are expected to be in the 60s to lower 70s on Thursday, with mainly 70s for Friday and Saturday.  Lows Thursday night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Tonight - Partly cloudy.  Low 49 to 54.  Wind becoming southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Wednesday - Partly cloudy.  High 75 to 80.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Scattered showers are possible Wednesday night through Thursday morning, drying out Thursday afternoon with generally dry weather expected for Friday and Saturday.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  74
Low:   53

Sunrise Wednesday:  5:18 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim 


Monday, June 27, 2016

June 27, 2016: 70s Tuesday, Near 80 in parts of the Northland Wednesday. More storm reports from June 25th included in this post

/Issued 4:43 PM CDT, Monday, June 27, 2016/

Visible satellite image from 4:15 PM CDT today, June 27, 2016.  Skies will clear from north to south tonight.  Source, http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
















Low temperature forecast for tonight.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















High temperature forecast for Tuesday.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Additional Storm Reports from Saturday, June 25, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*3:45 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County)  A few 10 inch diameter trees downed.

*6:36 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  2 N of Benoit, WI (Bayfield County)  Several large trees down on Highway 2 south of Moquah.

*3:04 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Libby, MN (Aitkin County)  Several large trees downed.

*7:10 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  5 ENE of Chief Lake, WI (Sawyer County)  12 inch diameter oak tree broken 6 feet above ground level.  Numerous smaller branches broken.

*7:28 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  2 SSE of Winter, WI (Sawyer County)  18 inch diameter tree broken 10-12 feet above ground level.  Numerous branches broken.

*4:16 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  3 ENE of Wright, MN (Carlton County)  10 inch diameter tree broken.  Several other dead trees toppled in back acreage.  Event occurred between 4-5 PM.

*5:33 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  3 WNW of Friesland, MN (Pine County)  Several trees broken 8 feet below tops.  Numerous branches broken across area.

*4:27 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  3 NE of Barnum, MN (Carlton County)  Three 12 inch diameter maple trees snapped approximately 16 feet up from base.

*5:03 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  2 NW of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  Two 8-10 inch diameter birch trees snapped off at the base.

*5:15 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  International Falls, MN (Koochiching County)  Trees down across town.

*3:34 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  4 S of Kimberly, MN (Aitkin County)  Lots of trees down.  Some 2-3 foot diameter trees uprooted.  Several 3-4 inch diameter trees snapped.

Weather Tidbits:

*7 days at or above 80 degrees at the Duluth Airport this month; 1 above the average for June which is 6 days (1981-2010)

*Today, June 27th is the first time since June 15th with a high temperature failing to reach at least 70 degrees at the Duluth Airport.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  June 27, 2016

A cool late June day with highs in the mid to upper 50s from Hibbing and Ely to the Arrowhead with 60s around Lake Superior and in most of the rest of the Northland -- These temperatures are about 10-15 degrees cooler than normal for the 27th of June.  Clouds were extensive today but there has been a few peeks of sun every now and then.  Winds were out of the north or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  High.

Tonight:  Mostly cloudy skies with some clearing expected from north to south during the night as high pressure builds southeast into the Upper Midwest.  Could be a few showers or sprinkles this evening in parts of the Northland.  Lows in the 40s and 50s with 30s possible in the typical cold spots.  Winds out of the north or west at 5 to 15 mph.

Tuesday:  High pressure shifts slowly to the south/east.  Partly to mostly sunny with highs mainly in the 70s.  Partly cloudy tomorrow night with lows in the 50s.  West winds at 10 to 15 mph.

...Extended Forecast...

Confidence:  High.

A few showers or thunderstorms are possible Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front moves south through the Northland.  Not expecting any severe weather at the moment with just enough instability in place to support non-severe thunderstorms.  Dry weather should return Friday through Sunday (July 1-3)

High temperatures on Wednesday are expected to be in the 70s to around 80 degrees with highs Thursday and Friday in the 60s and 70s.  Highs this weekend should mainly be in the 70s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Tonight - Mostly cloudy with some clearing developing during the night.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Tuesday - Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

A few showers expected Wednesday evening into Thursday.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  74
Low:  53

Sunrise Tuesday:  5:17 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim

Sunday, June 26, 2016

June 26, 2016: Windy and cooler Monday (60s) Warmer temperatures return Tuesday-Wednesday; 4th of July weekend looking good right now

/Issued 3:15 PM CDT, Sunday, June 26, 2016/















Last week's temperature departure map.  Generally near or above average temperatures throughout the Northland.
















Last week's precipitation departure map.  Pockets of above normal and below normal precipitation in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, more or less a typical summer time rainfall distribution, some locations get hit, others not so much.
















Low temperature forecast for tonight.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















High temperature forecast for Monday.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, MN (Airport location)

June 19-25, 2016

High temperatures:

6/19:  89 F/+17 degrees above normal
6/20:  74 F/+2 degrees above normal
6/21:  75 F/+3 degrees above normal
6/22:  71 F/-2 degrees below normal
6/23:  79 F/+6 degrees above normal
6/24:  80 F/+7 degrees above normal
6/25:  84 F/+11 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

6/19:  68 F/+18 degrees above normal
6/20:  53 F/+2 degrees above normal
6/21:  51 F/Normal
6/22:  50 F/-1 degree below normal
6/23:  50 F/-2 degrees below normal
6/24:  53 F/+1 degree above normal
6/25:  64 F/+12 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.67"
Normal:  1.08"
Departure:  -0.41" below normal

*15 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees at the Duluth Airport -- The average for the entire month of June is 17 days (1981-2010)

*6 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees at the Duluth Airport -- The average for the entire month of June is 6 days (1981-2010)

Note:  Should end up with an average number of both 70 and 80 degree days this June at Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  June 26, 2016

Warm but lots of wind!  Low pressure of 998mb was over northern Ontario Province this afternoon with strong west or southwest winds occurring over the Northland today, wind speeds have been in the 15-25 mph range with gusts of 30 to 40 mph.  Sunshine to start the day but clouds have been increasing over northern Minnesota this afternoon as colder air begins to push south out of central Canada.  Highs today were in the 70s to lower 80s but much cooler 60s and even some 50s were found in far northwest Minnesota and far northern sections of the state.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  High.

Tonight:  Breezy under mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies.  A few showers will occur in northern Minnesota.  Lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s.  Winds out of the west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph mainly before Midnight.

Monday:  Still breezy and quite a bit cooler compared to today with highs only in the 50s and 60s.  Cold air advection moves in tonight and lingers tomorrow as 850mb temperatures fall to around +2 to +6 degrees Celsius.  Expect mostly cloudy skies with partial sun possible at times.  A few spotty showers could also occur during the day with dry conditions at night with lows in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the northwest or north at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

...Extended Forecast...

Confidence:  High.

Tuesday should be dry with highs in the 60s and 70s.  The next chance for showers or thunderstorms (scattered coverage) looks to be on Wednesday, possibly lingering into Thursday.  A cold front moves south out of central Canada midweek and that's when we could be dealing with a few showers around the area.  Highs on Wednesday are expected to be in the 70s.

The surface map through Tuesday will feature low pressure moving east out of northern Ontario Province with high pressure building southeast into the Upper Midwest.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Tonight - Breezy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 52 to 57.  Wind west at 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph, decreasing to 10 to 20 mph late.

Monday - Breezy and cooler.  Considerable cloudiness.  A shower is possible.  High 61 to 66.  Wind north to northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  74
Low:   53

Sunrise Monday:  5:17 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim