Thursday, September 3, 2015

September 3, 2015 Weather Report - Clear/partly cloudy tonight with a lingering fog threat; Mainly dry, warm, and muggy on Friday (Cooler near Lake Superior)

/Issued 3:18 PM CDT, Thursday, September 3, 2015/

Friday's severe weather outlook.  Source, WSI; Storm Prediction Center.

Yellow=Slight risk for severe thunderstorms (2)
Light green=Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms (1)
Dark green=Risk for non-severe thunderstorms













Keeping an eye on Sunday for possible severe weather in parts of the Upper Midwest/Western Great Lakes region.  

The map below is from today's 12z EUROPEAN model valid for Sunday and shows upper level wind speeds.  Noticing two cores of stronger winds aloft, one southwest of Minnesota - the other to our northwest (Marked with red X's on the map) Sometimes the area in between where these two wind maximums setup can be an area where severe thunderstorms develop (Light blue outlined area on the map) especially if other ingredients are in place.  So this will be something to monitor in coming days.  The euro solution from today looks pretty favorable for severe weather in most of Minnesota on Sunday, the other computer models not so much.  Source, http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, MN.



















Friday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, MN.



















Slight risk for rainfall amounts to exceed flash flood guidance from Saturday into Sunday morning in the green outlined area on the map.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.














Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Date:  September 3, 2015

Summer like weather away from Lake Superior today with morning low clouds and fog giving way to quite a bit of sunshine by the afternoon - Highs were in the 70s and 80s with dew points in the 60s to around 70 degrees.  Near Lake Superior - widespread fog, drizzle, and low clouds although conditions have been improving this afternoon from north to south, temperatures near Lake Superior were in the 60s today.  Winds were out of the southeast or east at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (September 3)

Clear to partly cloudy skies with areas of fog and drizzle at times with the best chance for this near Lake Superior.  Low temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s with south or east winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Friday and Friday night (September 4)

Areas of fog, low clouds, and possible drizzle over parts of the Northland early Friday morning giving way to a partly to mostly cloudy sky through Friday night.  Note:  Fog and drizzle could persist past Friday morning near Lake Superior, similar to what occurred today (Thursday)

A frontal boundary will be draped from West Central into Southeastern Minnesota with a fairly unstable airmass in place over the Upper Midwest.  Showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly over Western-Northern portions of the area by Friday evening or during the overnight hours, the remainder of the Northland should stay dry this period.

Highs on Friday will be in the 70s and 80s with 60s near Lake Superior.  Lows Friday night will be in the 60s to lower 70s with 50s near Lake Superior.  Winds tomorrow and tomorrow night will be out of the southeast or east at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Saturday through Monday (September 5-7)

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times this weekend as low pressure, cold front, and upper level trough eject E/NE out of the Northern Plains.  A very moist and unstable airmass will precede this system which should lead to a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the Northland.  Note:  There is a risk for some strong to severe thunderstorms this weekend, with Sunday holding a greater chance for severe thunderstorms compared to Saturday the way it looks now.

It does look like will dry out on Labor Day (Monday) as the system over the weekend exits to our north/east on Monday.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s and 80s on Saturday and Sunday and mainly in the 70s on Monday.  Lows Saturday night will be in the 60s to lower 70s with lows Sunday night in the 50s and 60s.

Note:  Expect muggy conditions to linger through Sunday with dew points ranging from 65 to 70 degrees with some areas having dew points as high as 75 degrees during the afternoon-early evening hours.  Much lower dew points move in on Labor Day.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

(September 8-13)

Near to below average temperatures are forecast from the 8th-13th.  Could be dealing with some rain showers from time to time during the 10th-12th time frame.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Areas of low clouds, fog, and possible drizzle.  Fog could be dense at times.  Otherwise partly cloudy.  Low 54 to 59.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday...  Areas of low clouds, fog, and possible drizzle especially before Noon.  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 57 to 62.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Scattered showers or thunderstorms possible.  Partly sunny.  High 80 to 85 but it could be near Lake Superior.

.Saturday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 63 to 68.

.Sunday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 80 to 85.

.Sunday night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 60 to 65.

.Labor Day...  Partly sunny.  Less humid.  High 70 to 75.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  70
Low:   51

Sunrise Friday:  6:32 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   7:43 PM CDT

Tim


Wednesday, September 2, 2015

September 2, 2015 Weather Report - Areas of fog tonight and Thursday morning; Gusty east wind/cool temps near Lake Superior on Thursday; Rainfall totals from today included in this post

/Issued 7:42 PM CDT, Wednesday, September 2, 2015/

Surface visibility forecast map valid at 1 PM Thursday - The brown area on the map is where quarter mile visibility is possible due to fog which should develop late tonight and linger into Thursday morning and possibly into the afternoon near Lake Superior thanks to an easterly wind off the lake.  Source, 18z Duluth WRF model.
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, MN.




















Thursday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, MN.




















Doppler radar rainfall estimates map from today.  Legend is on the left side on the two maps below.






















12-hour Enhanced Infrared satellite loop from late last night-this morning.  Source, unisys weather.com

Pretty cool watching this satellite loop as thunderstorms started over Southwest Minnesota, moved northeast while new storms developed in Northeast Minnesota.

















Rainfall report for September 2, 2015
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN (Airport)  2.03"
Two Harbors, MN:  0.53"
Silver Bay, MN:  0.87"
Eveleth, MN:  0.49"
Hibbing, MN:  1.02"
Superior, WI:  0.74"
Hayward, WI:  1.49"
Siren, WI:  0.36"
Solon Springs, WI:  0.23"
Lester Park, MN:  1.20"
Spooner, WI:  2.23"
3 SSE of Little Swan, MN:  3.70"
2 S of Superior, WI:  1.29"
1 NW of Beaver Bay, MN:  1.70"
8 WNW of Minong, WI:  1.41"

Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Date:  September 2, 2015

Parts of the Northland were hit by heavy downpours earlier in the day thanks to scattered slow moving thunderstorms which hit parts of the area.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies were common today with high temperatures ranging from the 60s and 70s near Lake Superior and over most of Northwest Wisconsin with warmer 80s in Western-Northern portions of Minnesota.  Dew points were in the 50s and 60s today, and winds were out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (September 2)

Areas of fog will develop tonight, the fog could become dense especially near Lake Superior and possibly in parts of Northwest Wisconsin.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected tonight with lows in the 50s and 60s with 40s possible in the Arrowhead.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday night (September 3)

Areas of fog lingering into Thursday morning and possibly longer than that near Lake Superior otherwise partly to mostly cloudy this period with highs in the 60s near Lake Superior and in the 70s and 80s elsewhere.  Lows Thursday night will be in the 50s and 60s.  South or east winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Friday through Sunday (September 4-6)

A chance for a few showers or thunderstorms Friday or Friday night mainly over Western-Northwest portions of the area.  Highs on Friday will be in the 70s and 80s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Lows Friday night will be in the 60s to low 70s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.

Showers or thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northland this weekend.  On Saturday will see a cold front move southeast into the area, this boundary will probably wash out or stall out somewhere near the area -- Then on Sunday a new system approaches from the W/SW with another cold front (Stronger than Saturday's) pushing east out of the Northern Plains...The system on Sunday could bring a more widespread convective event to the region compared to what we see on Saturday.

Highs on Saturday and Sunday are expected to be in the 70s and 80s with lows Saturday night in the 50s and 60s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

(September 7-12)

A few showers could linger in parts of the area on Labor Day (7th) as a cold front and area of low pressure exit to the north/east.  Another chance for some showers on the 9th, and possibly again on the 12th.  Near to below average temperatures are expected from the 7th-12th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Areas of fog developing.  The fog could become dense.  Low 57 to 62.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Areas of fog otherwise partly to mostly cloudy.  High 65 to 70.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 56 to 61.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 72 to 77 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  A few showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 80 to 85.

.Saturday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 60 to 65.

.Sunday...  A few showers or thunderstorms possible.  Partly sunny.  High 77 to 82.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  70
Low:   51

Sunrise Thursday:  6:30 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   7:44 PM CDT

Tim




Tuesday, September 1, 2015

September 1, 2015 Weather Report - Muggy! A risk for a few showers or t-storms through Wednesday; Easterly wind (Cooler temps) near Lake Superior through Friday; Still tropical inland. Summer 2015 and 2014 climate stats included in this post

/Issued 7:54 PM CDT, Tuesday, September 1, 2015/

Summer 2015 temperature departure map (June 1 - August 31)  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.

Orange=Above average temperatures
Green=Below average temperatures
Gray=Near normal/within +1/-1 degree from average




















Summer 2015 precipitation departure map (Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.





















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, MN.




















Wednesday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, MN.




















Still seeing a wetter trend showing up from the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, to the Upper Midwest later this week and weekend.  Here's the 7-day rainfall forecast valid through Tuesday, September 8, 2015.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.
















August 2015 climate summaries for select cities
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

International Falls, MN:

Average temperature:  62.8 degrees
Departure:  -0.5 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  3.62"
Departure:  +0.81" above normal

10 thunderstorm days

Twin Cities, MN:

Average temperature:  70.7 degrees
Departure:  -0.5 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  2.99"
Departure:  -1.31" below normal

6 thunderstorm days

St. Cloud, MN:

Average temperature:  67.1 degrees
Departure:  -0.7 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  3.10"
Departure:  -0.69" below normal

6 thunderstorm days

Eau Claire, WI:

Average temperature:  67.4 degrees
Departure:  -1.9 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  7.19"
Departure:  +2.72" above normal

9 thunderstorm days

Marquette, MI:

Average temperature:  64.0 degrees
Departure:  +0.3 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  2.70"
Departure:  -0.35" below normal

3 thunderstorm days

Duluth, MN:

Average temperature:  65.3 degrees
Departure:  +1.0 degree above normal

Total precipitation:  4.09"
Departure:  +0.39" above normal

6 thunderstorm days

Meteorological summer 2015 climate stats for Duluth, MN - Airport location
Note:  Met summer is the period from June 1 - August 31

June 2015:  

Average temperature:  61.4 degrees
Departure:  +1.3 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  3.64"
Departure:  -0.59" below normal

June 2014:

Average temperature:  60.3 degrees
Departure:  +0.2 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  4.47"
Departure:  +0.24" above normal

July 2015:

Average temperature:  69.2 degrees
Departure:  +3.4 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  3.01"
Departure:  -0.84" below normal

July 2014:

Average temperature:  66.3 degrees
Departure:  +0.5 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  3.42"
Departure:  -0.43" below normal

August 2015:

Average temperature:  65.3 degrees
Departure:  +1.0 degree above normal

Total precipitation:  4.09"
Departure:  +0.39" above normal

August 2014:

Average temperature:  64.7 degrees
Departure:  +0.4 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  4.63"
Departure:  +0.93"

Total precipitation this summer:  10.74" vs. 12.52" last summer.

Note:  Rainfall total of 10.74" this summer was -1.04" below normal.

*74 days with a high temperature of at least 70 F this summer vs. 67 days last summer.

*29 days with a high temperature of at least 80 F this summer vs. 16 days last summer.

*3 days with a high temperature of at least 90 F this summer vs. 0 days last summer.

Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Date:  September 1, 2015

A warm and muggy start to the month of September.  A weak boundary has been sliding south/east through the Northland today.  There is sufficient moisture and instability in place along and south of this front for thunderstorms, but the air aloft is fairly warm/capped so we haven't seen much in our neck of the woods today.  Sky conditions varied from mostly sunny to partly sunny with lingering smoke and haze especially in Southern/Eastern portions of the area.  Highs today were mainly in the 80s with dew points ranging from the 60s and low 70s along and south of Highway 2 while drier air worked into Northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead with dew points in the 50s and even some 40s today.  Winds were out of the south, west, or east at around 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (September 1)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies with a chance for showers or thunderstorms mainly over East Central Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Low temperatures will be in the 60s to lower 70s with winds out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday night (September 2)

A risk for showers or thunderstorms across the Northland but coverage should be pretty spotty and no severe weather is expected.  Ample amount of instability and moisture will be in place for storms,  but winds aloft will be weak, and the amount of deep layer wind shear will be on the low side, so storms that develop should stay below severe criteria.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies this period with highs Wednesday in the 80s but cooler 60s and 70s are expected near Lake Superior.  Lows Wednesday night will be in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Thursday through Saturday (September 3-5)

Mainly dry on Thursday.  Showers or thunderstorms could affect Western-Northern areas on Friday with a chance for showers or thunderstorms area-wide on Saturday.  A frontal boundary and upper level trough will be approaching the Upper Midwest from the west by the weekend - Low pressure disturbances riding northeast along that front combined with a warm, moist, and unstable airmass should lead to a few rounds of storms that will track through portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday and Saturday.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior on all three days.  Lows Thursday night and Friday night will be in the 60s to lower 70s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.

Note:  Dew points should hold in the 60s right through Sunday.  A few areas in the Northland might even have 70+ degree dew points at times through the weekend.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(September 6-11)

Showers or thunderstorms are possible on Sunday (6th)  Still could have a few lingering showers on Labor Day (7th) Dry weather from the 8th-9th followed by a risk for some showers on the 10th-11th.  Above average temperatures on the 6th; Near to above average temps on the 7th; near to below average temperatures from the 8th-11th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Muggy.  Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible late.  Low 62 to 67.  Wind south to southeast around 10 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 78 to 83 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 57 to 62.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 72 to 77 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Thursday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 56 to 61.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 78 to 83 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 80 to 85 but it could be cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  70
Low:   51

Sunrise Wednesday:  6:29 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   7:46 PM CDT

Tim






August 2015 climate summary for Duluth, Minnesota - Warmer than normal; Above average rainfall

August 2015 temperature departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.

Gray areas=Within +/- 1 degree from average

Green colored areas=Below average temperatures




















August 2015 precipitation departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.






















August 2015 climate summary for Duluth, Minnesota - Airport location

Average temperature:  65.3 degrees
Normal:  64.3 degrees
Departure:  +1.0 degree above normal

Warmest high temperature:  93 F on the 14th
Warmest low temperature:  68 F on the 13th

Coldest high temperature:  56 F on the 24th
Coldest low temperature:  42 F on the 26th

24 days with a high temperature of at least 70 F
10 days with a high temperature of at least 80 F
3 days with a high temperature of at least 90 F

7 days with a high temperature cooler than 70 F
1 day with a high temperature cooler than 60 F

7 days with a low temperature of 60 F or warmer
5 days with a low temperature of 50F or colder

Total precipitation:  4.09"
Normal:  3.70"
Departure:  +0.39" above normal

Heaviest daily rainfall total:  1.33" on the 18th

Number of days with at least 0.01" of precipitation:  12
Number of days with at least 0.10" of precipitation:  5
Number of days with at least 1.00" of precipitation:  1

Notes:

*6 thunderstorm days
*August was the 6th consecutive month with an above average temperature (March-August)

August 2014 climate summary for Duluth, Minnesota - Airport location

Average temperature:  64.7 degrees
Departure:  +0.4 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  4.63"
Departure:  +0.93" above normal

22 days with a high temperature of at least 70 F
3 days with a high temperature of at least 80 F
9 days with a high temperature cooler than 70 F

8 days with a low temperature of 60 F or warmer
2 days with a low temperature colder than 50 F

6 thunderstorm days

Tim

Monday, August 31, 2015

August 31, 2015 Weather Report - Haze and smoke; Warm temps continue on Tuesday; Lake breeze develops mid to late week

/Issued 7:41 PM CDT, Monday, August 31, 2015/

7-day rainfall forecast valid through Monday, September 7, 2015.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Looks like the weather pattern might become more active during the Labor Day weekend across the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Western Great Lakes region with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible during that time.
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, MN.




















Tuesday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, MN.




















September climate averages for Duluth, Minnesota - Airport location

Temperature:  55.6 degrees
Precipitation:  4.11"
Snowfall:  0.1"

Sunrise on the 1st:  6:28 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 30th:  7:05 AM CDT

Sunset on the 1st:  7:49 PM CDT
Sunset on the 30th:  6:53 PM CDT

Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Date:  August 31, 2015

A warm and humid day as we wrap up the month of August.  High temperatures were mainly in the 80s with dew points generally in the 60s.  Winds were out of the south at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Tuesday night (August 31-September 1)

A cold front over Western Minnesota early this evening will move a little more to the south/east tonight before stalling out while turning into a warm front on Tuesday, this boundary will then lift north into Ontario Tuesday night.

There is enough moisture and instability to fuel thunderstorms, but warm temperatures aloft and the fact the boundary is quite weak should prevent widespread convection through Tuesday night -- Instead we could see a few spotty showers or thunderstorms especially tomorrow or tomorrow night over Northwest Wisconsin and maybe into Eastern Minnesota.

Low temperatures tonight and Tuesday night will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees with highs on Tuesday mainly in the 80s.  Winds will be out of the south or west through Tuesday at 10 to 15 mph.  Winds Tuesday night will be out of the west or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Wednesday through Friday (September 2-4)

The big change from mid to late week will be the wind direction as it does appear that an east wind will kick in near Lake Superior which will likely keep high temperatures in the 70s, possibly even in the 60s near the immediate shoreline -- Inland locations will remain warm with highs Wednesday through Friday holding in the 80s.  Low temperatures Wednesday night and Thursday night will be in the 60s with 50s near Lake Superior.

A few showers or thunderstorms are possible in parts of the Northland on Wednesday otherwise it looks mainly dry from mid to late week.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

(September 5-10)

A risk for some showers or thunderstorms this weekend (5th-6th) Shower chances could carry over to Labor Day itself (7th) depending on how quickly a cold front and upper level trough pass through.  Near to above average temperatures on the 5th and 6th with near to below average temperatures from the 7th-10th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Haze and smoke.  Partly cloudy.  Low 65 to 70.  Wind south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Haze and smoke.  Partly cloudy.  High 80 to 85.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind becoming east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 78 to 83 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Wednesday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 72 to 77 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Thursday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 78 to 83 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  71
Low:   52

Sunrise Tuesday:  6:28 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   7:48 PM CDT

Tim