Friday, April 18, 2014

April 18, 2014 - Weather report. Mixture of precipitation late Tonight-Saturday AM; Warming up on Easter Sunday.

/Issued 3:18 PM CDT, Friday, April 18, 2014/

Purple area=Winter Weather Advisory.  More details below.















Winter weather headlines
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

A winter weather advisory has been issued for parts of Northern and Northeast Minnesota.

Timing:  

Midnight Tonight until Noon CDT Saturday.

Counties included in the advisory:

St. Louis MN
Carlton MN

Some cities included in the advisory:

Crane Lake
Orr
Ely
Hibbing
Virginia
Cotton
Floodwood
Duluth
Wright
Cromwell
Cloquet
Moose Lake

Discussion:

A mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow is forecast to develop after Midnight Tonight with precipitation continuing at times through the day Saturday.  As temperatures warm on Saturday any mixed precipitation should turn over to rain.

Snow and ice accumulations:

2-6" of snow is possible near the International border with 1" or less further south.  Ice accumulations should generally be less than a quarter inch.

Impacts:

The mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow is expected to make roads slippery in a short period of time.

**A winter weather advisory for mixed precipitation means a mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow is expected.  Small accumulations of snow and ice are expected on untreated roads and sidewalks.  Anyone with travel plans should be prepared for slippery roads and reduced visibility.  Slow down when driving and allow extra stopping distance because you may lose control of your vehicle if you try to slow down or stop quickly**

--------------------------

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Timing:


4 AM Saturday until 4 PM Saturday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Cook MN
Lake MN

Some cities included in the advisory:


Grand Portage
Hovland
Grand Marais
Lutsen
Isabella
Finland
Silver Bay
Two Harbors
Whyte
Forest Center

Discussion:

A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is forecast to develop early Saturday Morning with this mix of winter precipitation continuing through most of the day Saturday.

Snow and ice accumulations:

2-6" of snow is possible near the International border with 1" or less further south.  Ice accumulations should generally be less than a quarter inch.  Note:  Ice accumulations could exceed a quarter inch along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Impacts:

The mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow is expected to make roads slippery in a short period of time.

**A winter weather advisory for mixed precipitation means a mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow is expected.  Small accumulations of snow and ice are expected on untreated roads and sidewalks.  Anyone with travel plans should be prepared for slippery roads and reduced visibility.  Slow down when driving and allow extra stopping distance because you may lose control of your vehicle if you try to slow down or stop quickly**

------------------------------

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Timing:


Midnight Tonight until 10 AM CDT Saturday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Koochiching MN
Itasca MN


Some cities included in the advisory:

International Falls
Littlefork
Big Falls
Northome
Bigfork
Togo
Squaw Lake
Deer River
Grand Rapids
Wawina

Discussion:

A mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow is forecast to develop after Midnight Tonight with precipitation continuing at times through the day Saturday.  As temperatures warm on Saturday any mixed precipitation should turn over to rain.

Snow and ice accumulations:

2-6" of snow is possible near the International border with 1" or less further south.  Ice accumulations should generally be less than a quarter inch.

Impacts:

The mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow is expected to make roads slippery in a short period of time.

**A winter weather advisory for mixed precipitation means a mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow is expected.  Small accumulations of snow and ice are expected on untreated roads and sidewalks.  Anyone with travel plans should be prepared for slippery roads and reduced visibility.  Slow down when driving and allow extra stopping distance because you may lose control of your vehicle if you try to slow down or stop quickly**

--------------------------------

Snow depth report for April 18, 2014
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  10"
International Falls, MN:  1"
Cook, MN:  12"
3 E of Orr, MN:  9"
Ashland, WI:  11"
3 S of Ashland, WI:  6"
9 N of Bayfield, WI:  20"
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  16"

Today's Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

High pressure of 1030mb extends from Western Ontario to Wisconsin as of 3 PM with low pressure of 1000-1002mb stretching from Southern Alberta to Wyoming.  Abundant sunshine was the norm Today except in the Southwest portion of the Northland where partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies prevailed.  High temperatures were in the 40s with mid and upper 30s near Lake Superior.  Winds were out of the east at 5 to around 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Saturday Night (April 18-19)

Clouds will increase This Evening as low pressure moves into the Northern Plains.  Ahead of this system a low level jet will increase into the 40-60+ knot range during the night which will result in a good warm and moist advection pattern over the Northland.

Precipitation is forecast to develop by late This Evening in West-Northwest areas with the chance for precipitation increasing farther south/east after Midnight.

The type of precipitation that falls Tonight and Saturday remains tricky.  There will be a lot of warm air moving in at 850mb, but the temperature near the surface could remain cold enough to support sleet and freezing rain from late Tonight through midday Saturday. 

Locations along and N/NE of Highway 2 in Minnesota stand the greatest chance for seeing a wintry mix of precipitation which should switch over to rain from SW-NE on Saturday as surface temperatures rise.

The North Shore, Arrowhead, and higher terrain area adjacent to Lake Superior could possibly pick up a fair amount of ice and or sleet accumulation through midday Saturday as this area will likely stay colder longer thanks to an onshore wind off Lake Superior.

Areas of fog could also develop mainly near Lake Superior Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with mostly cloudy skies for the entire area.

Lows Tonight will be in the 20s and 30s.  Highs Tomorrow will range from the 30s near Lake Superior to the 50s and 60s in Western-Southwest areas.  Lows Tomorrow Night will mainly be in the 30s.

Winds will be out of the south or east Tonight and Saturday at 10 to 25 mph.  Winds Saturday Night will shift more to the west or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Easter Sunday through Tuesday (April 20-22)

Things are looking pretty good on Sunday as high temperatures rise into the 50s and 60s throughout most of the Northland although it will be cooler along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.  Monday also looks pretty nice with highs once again topping out in the 50s and 60s with lows Monday Night in the 30s. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s.  Right now the Sunday-Tuesday period looks mainly dry in our area.  

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(April 23-28)

Near to below average temperatures are forecast through this period.  Low pressure and an upper level trough will move out of the Rockies and into the Plains, Upper Midwest, and Western Great Lakes region from the 23rd-25th...This system looks like it will bring some rain to the Northland during the mid-late portion of next week.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

Event:  *WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DULUTH*
Timing:  Midnight Tonight until Noon CDT Saturday.


.Tonight...  Increasing cloudiness.  Freezing rain, sleet, snow, or rain possible after Midnight.  Low 28 to 33.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Occasional rain.  Drizzle and fog also possible.  Freezing rain, sleet, or snow possible during the Morning.  High 37 to 42.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Considerable cloudiness.  Patchy fog possible.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind becoming west around 10 mph.

.Easter Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 57 to 62 but it may be cooler closer to Lake Superior.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 50 to 55.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  51
Low:  31

Sunrise Saturday:  6:14 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   8:03 PM CDT

Tim

Thursday, April 17, 2014

April 17, 2014 - Weather report. Dry through Friday; Rain/freezing rain late Friday Night-Saturday; Recap of Wednesday's winter storm.

/Issued 3:24 PM CDT, Thursday, April 17, 2014/

A brief break from wintry precipitation during the next 24 hours, but parts of the Northland could see another round of frozen precipitation late Friday Night into Saturday Morning.

The map below shows where there could be some freezing rain and or sleet late Friday Night-Saturday Morning.

Red=Low probability of icy precipitation
Pink=A greater chance for icy precipitation
















Snowfall reports for April 16-17, 2014
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

4 N of Grantsburg, WI (Burnett County)  16.5"
1 S of Solon Springs, WI (Douglas County)  15.0"
8 ESE of Pine City, MN (Pine County)  15.0"
Minong, WI (Washburn County)  15.0"
Ashland, WI (Ashland County)  14.7"

4 S of Bruno, MN (Pine County)  14.6"
2 NW of Mellen, WI (Ashland County)  14.3"
Brook Park, MN (Pine County)  14.0"
Sarona, WI (Washburn County)  14.0"
High Bridge, WI (Ashland County)  14.0"

4 SE of Namekagon, WI (Bayfield County)  13.7"
New Post, WI (Sawyer County)  13.5"
6 NE of Hertel, WI (Burnett County)  13.4"
Finlayson, MN (Pine County)  13.2"
Spooner, WI (Washburn County)  13.0"

5 WSW of Solon Springs, WI (Douglas County)  13.0"
Holyoke, MN (Carlton County)  12.6"
Washburn, WI (Bayfield County)  12.5"
8 WNW of Park Falls, WI (Price County)  12.5"
Drummond, WI (Bayfield County)  12.5"

Webb Lake, WI (Burnett County)  12.5"
Seeley, WI (Sawyer County)  13.0"
5 SE of Superior, WI (Douglas County)  11.8"
Gile, WI (Iron County)  11.5"
Wrenshall, MN (Carlton County)  11.3"

Superior, WI (Douglas County)  11.0"
Upson, WI (Iron County)  10.0"
Oulu, WI (Bayfield County)  10.0"
Poplar, WI (Douglas County)  10.0"
3 W of Phillips, WI (Price County)  10.0"

Mouth Of Brule, WI (Douglas County)  9.0"
Esko, MN (Carlton County)  8.0"
Garrison, MN (Crow Wing County)  8.0"
Lincoln Park, MN (St. Louis County)  8.0"
Cornucopia, WI (Bayfield County)  8.0"

Fond Du Lac, MN (St. Louis County)  8.0"
Moose Lake, MN (Carlton County)  7.8"
Duluth Heights, MN (St. Louis County)  7.7"
West Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  7.6"
Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)  7.5"

5 NW of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  7.2"  NWS total.
Island Lake, MN (St. Louis County)  6.5"
Lutsen, MN (Cook County)  6.5"
Breezy Point, MN (Crow Wing County)  1.5"
Pine River, MN (Cass County)  1.0"

Note:  Here are a few additional snowfall reports from the past 24 hours outside of the Northland.

Isanti, MN:  19.0"
North Branch, MN:  18.0"
Cambridge, MN:  16.0"
Rush City, MN:  15.9"
Little Falls, MN:  13.0"
Rhinelander, WI:  11.0"

Total snowfall map for April 16-17, 2014.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.
















*RECORD EVENT*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

24 hour snowfall record was broken on April 16, 2014 at Duluth, Minnesota.  New record:  6.4"; Previous record:  4.6" set in 1939.

Note:  After Wednesday's snowstorm, 2013-14 is now the 5th snowiest season on record at Duluth, Minnesota with 125.3" of snow.

Here are the top 5 snowiest seasons

1:  135.4" (1995-96)
2:  131.8" (1949-50)
3:  129.4" (2012-13)
4:  128.2" (1996-97)
5:  125.3" (2013-14)

Note:  Although this season has been a snowy one, were still behind last year's amount by 4.1" and we still need 10.1" of snow to tie the all-time record of 135.4"

Today's Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

The last of the snow from this recent winter storm is finally ending as snow continued to taper off This Afternoon over the Arrowhead of Minnesota.  Partly cloudy to sunny skies were common late This Afternoon over the southwest part of the area while mostly cloudy skies prevailed elsewhere.  High temperatures were still colder than where they should be for this time of year with 30s and 40s throughout the Northland with the warmest temperatures found from Longville and Brainerd east to Aitkin and McGregor.  Winds Today were out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (April 17)

Low pressure will be centered to our east with high pressure over Manitoba moving toward the south/east. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with lows in the 20s but a few spots might slip into the teens.  Winds will be out of the north, west, or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday and Friday Night (April 18)

Tomorrow will be dry under partly cloudy skies.  Highs will range from the 30s near Lake Superior to the 40s with winds out of the east at 5 to 15 mph.

Low pressure moves east out of the Northern Rockies Friday Night with a strong low level jet of 50-70 knots developing ahead of this feature which will lead to a decent amount of warm/moist advection later in the night and into Saturday.

Rain should develop late Friday Night as this system moves closer to the Northland.  Low temperatures Tomorrow Night will be in the 20s and 30s with south or east winds at 10 to 20 mph.  Note:  With surface temperatures at or below freezing over Northeast Minnesota the possibility for freezing rain, sleet, and maybe some snow does exist as precipitation develops early Saturday Morning.

0.25" or greater freezing rain probability forecast valid for Friday Night-Saturday.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Blue=Slight risk for ice accumulations of at least 0.25"















4" or greater snowfall accumulation forecast valid for Friday Night-Saturday.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Blue=Slight risk for at least 4" of snow which does include the extreme NE part of Minnesota.

















Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Saturday through Monday (April 19-21)

Low pressure will continue to move through the Upper Midwest on Saturday with rain continuing over parts of the Northland.  The precipitation may be in the form of freezing rain or sleet over Northeastern Minnesota through about midday Saturday.  Areas of fog could also develop on Saturday especially near Lake Superior.

A few showers could persist into Saturday Evening otherwise the rest of Saturday Night and right through Monday looks dry at this time.

Highs on Saturday will range from the 30s near Lake Superior with 40s and 50s elsewhere.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the 30s.  Highs on Easter Sunday are forecast to be in the 40s and 50s with 60s possible in Southern areas.  Cooler temperatures are expected though along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.  Highs on Monday will be in the 40s and 50s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(April 22-27)

Tuesday (22nd) looks dry.  The period from the 23rd-26th could turn wet at times as low pressure and an upper level trough move east out of the Rockies.  This system could bring quite a bit of rain to the Upper Midwest from mid to late next week and there could even be a few thunderstorms as well.  Near to below average temperatures are forecast through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible late.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph becoming east late.

.Friday...  Patchy fog possible early.  Partly cloudy.  High 38 to 43.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night...  Increasing cloudiness.  Rain possible after Midnight.  Some freezing rain or sleet is also possible.  Low 28 to 32.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Rain possible.  Some freezing rain or sleet is also possible early.  Areas of fog and drizzle.  High 33 to 38.

.Saturday Night...  Areas of fog possible.  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 30 to 33.

.Easter Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 50 to 55 but it may be cooler near Lake Superior.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 41 to 46.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  50
Low:   31

Sunrise Friday:  6:16 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   8:01 PM CDT

Tim







Wednesday, April 16, 2014

April 16, 2014 - Weather report. Windy and snowy Tonight, Winter Storm Warning continues; Rain possible on Saturday.

/Issued 3:54 PM CDT, Wednesday, April 16, 2014/

Preliminary snowfall reports for April 16, 2014
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Moose Lake, MN (Carlton County)  4.5"
Port Wing, WI (Bayfield County)  1.0"
Webb Lake, WI (Burnett County)  7.0"
5 NW of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  2.5"  NWS total thru 4:48 PM.
Brook Park, MN (Pine County)  5.5"
Superior, WI (Douglas County)  2.5"
4 N of Grantsburg, WI (Burnett County)  8.5"
Garrison, MN (Crow Wing County)  5.0"
Holyoke, MN (Carlton County)  4.4"
2 W of Hayward, WI (Sawyer County)  6.8"
7 N of McGregor, MN (Aitkin County)  1.7"
Seeley, WI (Sawyer County)  6.0"
Wrenshall, MN (Carlton County)  4.3"

Water vapor satellite image from 4:31 PM Today.  Source COD website.

L=Low pressure position as of 4 PM

Black line=Storm track through Thursday.















Snowfall accumulation forecast valid through Thursday AM.

















Mesoscale Discussion issued by the NWS/Storm Prediction Center for heavy snowfall rates in the pink outlined area on this map - this is valid through 7:30 PM Tonight.
















---------------------------

New expiration times to the winter weather headlines
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*WINTER STORM WARNING* in effect until 10 AM CDT for Bayfield, Ashland, Iron, Sawyer, and Price Counties in Wisconsin.

*WINTER STORM WARNING* in effect until Midnight CDT Tonight for Crow Wing County Minnesota.

*WINTER STORM WARNING* in effect until 6 AM CDT Thursday for Douglas and Washburn Counties in Wisconsin.

*WINTER STORM WARNING* in effect until 4 AM CDT Thursday for Aitkin and Pine Counties in Minnesota and for Burnett County Wisconsin.

*WINTER STORM WARNING in effect until 6 AM CDT Thursday for Southern Lake, Southern St. Louis, and Carlton Counties in Minnesota.

*WINTER STORM WARNING* in effect until Noon CDT Thursday for Northern Lake and Cook Counties in Minnesota.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY* in effect until Midnight CDT Tonight for Northern Cass and Southern Itasca Counties in Minnesota.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY* in effect until 6 AM CDT Thursday for Central St. Louis County Minnesota.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY* in effect until Midnight CDT Tonight for Southern Cass County Minnesota.  Note:  The winter storm warning has been cancelled.

--------------------------

April 1-15, 2014 climate stats for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Average temperature:  33.4 degrees
Departure:  -2.6 degrees

5 days with a high temperature of at least 50F

Total precipitation:  0.84"
Departure:  -0.23"

Total snowfall:  13.4"
Departure:  +8.9"

Today's Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

An area of low pressure averaging 1008mb has moved into Northwest Iowa as of 4 PM.  Widespread snow heavy at times has been occurring Today in East Central Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with some light snow extending north to the Iron Range while far Northern Minnesota stayed dry.  High temperatures were in the 20s and 30s with east or northeast winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (April 16)

A major winter storm will continue to affect East Central Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight as low pressure heads east-northeast out of NW Iowa.  Snow heavy at times will continue most of the night in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with snow extending north to the Iron Range, North Shore, and Arrowhead.  Western-Northern parts of the area should stay mainly dry Tonight.  Low temperatures will range from the teens to around 30 degrees.  Winds will be out of the north or east at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Thursday and Thursday Night (April 17)

Low pressure exits to our east this period.  Snow in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin early Tomorrow Morning will end from SW-NE during the Morning-early Afternoon hours.  Otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy skies Thursday and Thursday Night.  Highs will be in the 30s to low 40s with some spots in the Arrowhead holding in the 20s.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the teens and 20s.  Winds will be out of the north, west, or east at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Friday through Sunday (April 18-20)

Friday looks dry with highs in the 30s and 40s with lows in the 20s and 30s.

Chances for precipitation increase late Friday Night through Saturday as low pressure moves through the region.  Most of the precipitation that falls with this next storm should be in the form of rain, however, enough cold air near the surface may lead to some freezing rain or sleet mainly along the North Shore of Lake Superior and Arrowhead and also in the Higher Terrain area adjacent to Lake Superior.  We dry out again on Sunday.

High temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s on Saturday and the 40s and 50s for Easter Sunday.  Low temperatures Saturday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(April 21-26)

Near to above average temperatures are expected through this period.  Rain and shower chances ramp up between the 23rd-25th as a storm system approaches from the Rockies and Western High Plains.  Could also see some thunderstorm activity here in the Northland during the middle to end of next week.

Upper Midwest radar loop ending at 4:30 PM Today.  Source WSI.

Blue=Snow
Green=Rain
Pink=Mixed precipitation














5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

Event:  *WINTER STORM WARNING*
Timing:  Until 6 AM CDT Thursday.

.Tonight...  Windy with snow and blowing snow.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph possible.  Total snowfall accumulations of 7-12" possible.  Low 20 to 25.

.Thursday...  Snow showers and flurries possible early.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 32 to 37.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 38 to 43.

.Friday Night...  Increasing cloudiness.  Low 27 to 32.

.Saturday...  Rain possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 33 to 37.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Easter Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 45 to 50.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  50
Low:   30

Sunrise Thursday:  6:18 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   8:00 PM CDT

Tim






April 16, 2014 - 1 PM winter storm update.

/Issued 12:27 PM CDT, Wednesday, April 16, 2014/

**A dangerous winter storm through late Tonight**  Stay safe everyone.

Here's my updated snowfall accumulation map valid through Thursday Morning.
















Winter weather headline information
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Pink=Winter Storm Warning
Purple=Winter Weather Advisory
















------------------------

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

A winter storm warning remains in effect for parts of Northeast Minnesota.

Timing:

Until 10 AM CDT Thursday.

Counties included in the warning:

Carlton MN
Southern St. Louis MN
Southern Lake MN

Some cities included in the warning:

Moose Lake
Cloquet
Floodwood
Duluth
Two Harbors
Silver Bay
Finland

Discussion:

Snow through early Thursday Morning.  The snow could be heavy at times through This Evening with snowfall rates of 1-2" an hour possible.

Total snowfall accumulations:

Generally about 7-12" of snow is expected by Thursday Morning.

Winds/Visibility:

Northeast winds at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.  Even stronger wind gusts of up to 40 mph are possible near Lake Superior.  Visibility could be as low as one quarter mile at times during the heavier snow bands and in the blowing snow.

Impacts:

The heavy snow and high winds could bring down branches.  Roads will become snow covered with low visibility.

**A winter storm warning for heavy snow means the combination of strong winds and falling and blowing snow will cause dangerously low visibility and drifting snow.  Snow and ice covered roads and dangerous travel conditions can be expected.  Delay travel if possible.  If you must travel use extreme caution and allow extra time to reach your destination.  Be aware that you may become stranded and that it could take many hours for help to arrive.  Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle including a flashlight, food, and water.  Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time and have a working cell phone in case you become stranded**

-------------------------

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

A winter storm warning remains in effect for all of Northwest Wisconsin and for parts of East Central Minnesota.

Timing:

Until 4 AM CDT Thursday.

Counties included in the warning:

Aitkin MN
Pine MN
Crow Wing MN
Southern Cass MN

Burnett WI

Some cities included in the warning:

Aitkin
McGregor
Hill City
Palisade
Willow River
Bruno
Hinckley
Pine City
Brainerd
Pine Center
Emily
Pine River
Leader

Danbury
Siren
Grantsburg

Discussion:

Snow through Tonight.  The snow could be heavy at times with the most significant snow expected to be over Pine and Burnett Counties, possibly extending into Southern Aitkin County.  Snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour are possible through This Evening.

Total snowfall accumulations:

A wide range in snowfall totals in the warned area.  1-4" over Southern Cass County to 7-12" in the Eastern portion of the warning area over Pine and Burnett Counties.  Note:  Some locales could pick up 12-18" of snow in Pine and Burnett Counties.

Winds/Visibility:

Northeast winds at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.  Visibility could be as low as one quarter mile at times during the heavier snow bands and in the blowing snow.

Impacts:

The heavy snow and high winds could bring down branches.  Roads will become snow covered with low visibility.

**A winter storm warning for heavy snow means the combination of strong winds and falling and blowing snow will cause dangerously low visibility and drifting snow.  Snow and ice covered roads and dangerous travel conditions can be expected.  Delay travel if possible.  If you must travel use extreme caution and allow extra time to reach your destination.  Be aware that you may become stranded and that it could take many hours for help to arrive.  Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle including a flashlight, food, and water.  Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time and have a working cell phone in case you become stranded**

------------------------

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

A winter storm warning remains in effect for all of Northwest Wisconsin.

Timing:

Until 10 AM CDT Thursday.

Counties included in the warning:

Douglas WI
Bayfield WI
Ashland WI
Iron WI
Washburn WI
Sawyer WI
Price WI

Some cities included in the warning:

Superior
Solon Springs
Port Wing
Cornucopia
Washburn
Bayfield
Drummond
Ashland
Cable
Butternut
Gile
Upson
Hurley
Minong
Shell Lake
Spooner
Hayward
Winter
Exeland
Park Falls
Phillips
Ogema

Discussion:

Snow through early Thursday Morning.  The snow could be heavy at times.  Snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour are possible at times through Tonight.

Total snowfall accumulations:

Up to 12" with locally higher amounts to 18" possible.

Winds/Visibility:

Northeast winds at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.  Even stronger wind gusts of up to 40 mph are possible near Lake Superior.  Visibility could be as low as one quarter mile at times during the heavier snow bands and in the blowing snow.

Impacts:

The heavy snow and high winds could bring down branches.  Roads will become snow covered with low visibility.

**A winter storm warning for heavy snow means the combination of strong winds and falling and blowing snow will cause dangerously low visibility and drifting snow.  Snow and ice covered roads and dangerous travel conditions can be expected.  Delay travel if possible.  If you must travel use extreme caution and allow extra time to reach your destination.  Be aware that you may become stranded and that it could take many hours for help to arrive.  Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle including a flashlight, food, and water.  Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time and have a working cell phone in case you become stranded**

-------------------------

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

A winter storm warning has been issued for parts of Northeast Minnesota.

Timing:

Until Noon CDT Thursday.

Counties included in the warning:

Northern Lake MN
Cook MN

Some cities included in the warning:

Forest Center
Isabella
Lutsen
Grand Marais
Hovland
Grand Portage

Discussion:

Snow will gradually develop during the Afternoon and Evening hours with snow Tonight and Thursday Morning before tapering off Thursday Afternoon.

Total snowfall accumulations:

A wide range in snowfall accumulations are expected.  1-4" in the Northern portion of the warning area to as much as 7-12" closer to Lake Superior.

Winds/Visibility:

Northeast winds at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.  Even stronger wind gusts of up to 40 mph are possible near Lake Superior.  Visibility could be as low as one quarter mile at times during the heavier snow bands and in the blowing snow.

Impacts:

The heavy snow and high winds could bring down branches.  Roads will become snow covered with low visibility.

**A winter storm warning for heavy snow means the combination of strong winds and falling and blowing snow will cause dangerously low visibility and drifting snow.  Snow and ice covered roads and dangerous travel conditions can be expected.  Delay travel if possible.  If you must travel use extreme caution and allow extra time to reach your destination.  Be aware that you may become stranded and that it could take many hours for help to arrive.  Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle including a flashlight, food, and water.  Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time and have a working cell phone in case you become stranded**

---------------------

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

A winter weather advisory has been issued for parts East Central Minnesota.

Timing:

Until 4 AM CDT Thursday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Southern Itasca MN
Northern Cass MN

Some cities included in the advisory:

Grand Rapids
Cass Lake
Walker
Remer

Discussion:

Light snow at times through early Thursday Morning.

Total snowfall accumulations:

Generally 1-4" of snow by late Tonight.

**A winter weather advisory for snow and blowing snow means that visibilities will be limited due to a combination of falling and blowing snow.  Use caution when traveling especially in open areas that are more exposed to the wind.  Roads may be slick and hazardous so allow extra time to reach your destination**

------------------------

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

A winter weather advisory has been issued for parts of Northeast Minnesota.

Timing:

10 AM Wednesday until 10 AM CDT Thursday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Central St. Louis MN

Some cities included in the advisory:

Meadowlands
Hibbing
Cook
Hoyt Lakes
Cotton

Discussion:

Light to moderate snow through early Thursday Morning.

Total snowfall accumulations:

About 1-4" of snow is possible.

**A winter weather advisory for snow and blowing snow means that visibilities will be limited due to a combination of falling and blowing snow.  Use caution when traveling especially in open areas that are more exposed to the wind.  Roads may be slick and hazardous so allow extra time to reach your destination**

------------------------

At 12:55 PM CDT:  Low pressure averaging 1006mb was over Southeast South Dakota.  This area of low pressure is forecast to track east-northeast through Tonight and should move into the Central portion of Wisconsin by Thursday Morning.

Upper Midwest radar loop ending at 12:45 PM CDT.  Source, WSI.

Blue=Snow
Green=Rain
Pink=Mixed precipitation














Preliminary snowfall report
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

5 N of Motley, MN (Cass County)  2.3"
4 S of Sawyer, MN (Carlton County)  1.5"
2 SW of Hinckley, MN (Pine County)  2.5
Webb Lake, WI (Burnett County)  2.0"
Seeley, WI (Sawyer County)  1.5"
2 W of Hayward, WI (Sawyer County)  2.0"
Winter, WI (Sawyer County)  1.2"

Tim

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

April 15, 2014 - Weather report. Snow, wind, cold on Wednesday; Rain possible this weekend.

/Issued 3:35 PM CDT, Tuesday, April 15, 2014/

Annual snow total at the Duluth Airport is at 118.1" as we head into this next snow event.  17.3" shy of the all-time snowiest year on record 1995-96 (135.4")  Currently, 2013-14 is the 7th snowiest on record.  I think there's a good chance we break into the top 5 after Wednesday.













Here's my snowfall accumulation map for Wednesday and Wednesday Night.

















Storm track forecast valid through Thursday Morning.
















Updated headline map.

Pink=Winter Storm Warning
Purple=Winter Weather Advisory

















Winter weather headline information
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

A winter storm warning has been issued for parts of Northeastern Minnesota.

Timing:

4 AM Wednesday until 10 AM CDT Thursday.

Counties included in the warning:

Carlton MN
Southern St. Louis MN
Southern Lake MN

Some cities included in the warning:

Moose Lake
Cloquet
Floodwood
Duluth
Two Harbors
Silver Bay
Finland

Discussion:

Snow will gradually develop Wednesday Morning with snow Wednesday Afternoon and Evening.  The snow should be tapering off by late Wednesday Night.  Bands of heavier snow are possible especially Wednesday Afternoon and early Evening over Carlton County, possibly extending north to Duluth.

Total snowfall accumulations:

4-7" of snow is possible in the warned area with up to 12" of snow possible mainly over Southern Carlton County.

Winds/Visibility:

Northeast winds at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.  Even stronger wind gusts of up to 40 mph are possible near Lake Superior.  Visibility could be as low as one quarter mile at times during the heavier snow bands and in the blowing snow.

Impacts:

The heavy snow and high winds could bring down branches.  Roads will become snow covered with low visibility.

**A winter storm warning for heavy snow means the combination of strong winds and falling and blowing snow will cause dangerously low visibility and drifting snow.  Snow and ice covered roads and dangerous travel conditions can be expected.  Delay travel if possible.  If you must travel use extreme caution and allow extra time to reach your destination.  Be aware that you may become stranded and that it could take many hours for help to arrive.  Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle including a flashlight, food, and water.  Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time and have a working cell phone in case you become stranded**

---------------------------

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

A winter storm warning has been issued for all of Northwest Wisconsin and for parts of East Central Minnesota.

Timing:

4 AM Wednesday until 4 AM CDT Thursday.

Counties included in the warning:

Southern Aitkin MN
Pine MN
Crow Wing MN

Burnett WI

Some cities included in the warning:

Aitkin
McGregor
Willow River
Bruno
Hinckley
Pine City
Brainerd
Pine Center
Emily

Danbury
Siren
Grantsburg

Discussion:

Snow will develop after Midnight Tonight.  Snow, heavy at times on Wednesday.  Snow continues Wednesday Evening before ending late Wednesday Night.

Total snowfall accumulations:

7-12" of snow is possible in the warned area with the higher totals likely occurring east and southeast of Crow Wing County.  Note:  Over 12" of snow is possible in parts of Burnett County.

Winds/Visibility:

Northeast winds at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.  Visibility could be as low as one quarter mile at times during the heavier snow bands and in the blowing snow.

Impacts:

The heavy snow and high winds could bring down branches.  Roads will become snow covered with low visibility.

**A winter storm warning for heavy snow means the combination of strong winds and falling and blowing snow will cause dangerously low visibility and drifting snow.  Snow and ice covered roads and dangerous travel conditions can be expected.  Delay travel if possible.  If you must travel use extreme caution and allow extra time to reach your destination.  Be aware that you may become stranded and that it could take many hours for help to arrive.  Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle including a flashlight, food, and water.  Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time and have a working cell phone in case you become stranded**

----------------------

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

A winter storm warning has been issued for all of Northwest Wisconsin and for parts of East Central Minnesota.

Timing:

10 AM Wednesday until 10 AM CDT Thursday.

Counties included in the warning:

Douglas WI
Bayfield WI
Ashland WI
Iron WI
Washburn WI
Sawyer WI
Price WI

Some cities included in the warning:

Superior
Solon Springs
Port Wing
Cornucopia
Washburn
Bayfield
Drummond
Ashland
Cable
Butternut
Gile
Upson
Hurley
Minong
Shell Lake
Spooner
Hayward
Winter
Exeland
Park Falls
Phillips
Ogema

Discussion:

Snow will develop Wednesday Morning and could become heavy at times Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Evening.  Snow continues Wednesday Night but will decrease from west to east during the Overnight hours and into Thursday Morning.

Total snowfall accumulations:

7-12" of snow is possible with over 12" in some areas.

Winds/Visibility:

Northeast winds at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.  Even stronger wind gusts of up to 40 mph are possible near Lake Superior.  Visibility could be as low as one quarter mile at times during the heavier snow bands and in the blowing snow.

Impacts:

The heavy snow and high winds could bring down branches.  Roads will become snow covered with low visibility.

**A winter storm warning for heavy snow means the combination of strong winds and falling and blowing snow will cause dangerously low visibility and drifting snow.  Snow and ice covered roads and dangerous travel conditions can be expected.  Delay travel if possible.  If you must travel use extreme caution and allow extra time to reach your destination.  Be aware that you may become stranded and that it could take many hours for help to arrive.  Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle including a flashlight, food, and water.  Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time and have a working cell phone in case you become stranded**

----------------------------

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

A winter weather advisory has been issued for parts East Central Minnesota.

Timing:

4 AM Wednesday until 4 AM CDT Thursday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Northern Aitkin MN
Southern Cass MN

Some cities included in the advisory:

Hill City
Palisade
Pine River
Leader

Discussion:

Snow will gradually develop late Tonight with snow continuing during the day Wednesday before ending Wednesday Night.

Total snowfall accumulations:

Generally 1-4" of snow although locally higher amounts in the 4-7" range are possible.

**A winter weather advisory for snow and blowing snow means that visibilities will be limited due to a combination of falling and blowing snow.  Use caution when traveling especially in open areas that are more exposed to the wind.  Roads may be slick and hazardous so allow extra time to reach your destination**

---------------------------

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

A winter weather advisory has been issued for parts of Northeast Minnesota.

Timing:

10 AM Wednesday until 10 AM CDT Thursday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Central St. Louis MN
Northern Lake MN
Northern Cook MN

Some cities included in the advisory:

Meadowlands
Hibbing
Cook
Hoyt Lakes
Cotton
Whyte
Isabella
Lutsen
Hovland
Grand Marais
Grand Portage

Discussion:

Snow will gradually develop on Wednesday with snow continuing Wednesday Evening before ending late Wednesday Night.

Total snowfall accumulations:

About 1-4" of snow is possible.

**A winter weather advisory for snow and blowing snow means that visibilities will be limited due to a combination of falling and blowing snow.  Use caution when traveling especially in open areas that are more exposed to the wind.  Roads may be slick and hazardous so allow extra time to reach your destination**

---------------------------

Today's Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Another unseasonably cold spring day with high temperatures only in the upper 20s to the low/mid 30s which is well below average for this time of year.  A ridge of high pressure averaging 1020-1022mb extended from Manitoba to Eastern Oklahoma with low pressure of 1002mb over Eastern Montana as of 3 PM Today. Sunshine was abundant in the Northland Today with high pressure in control.  Winds were generally out of the west or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

Tonight through Wednesday Night (April 15-16)

Another winter storm will affect portions of the Northland during the next 24-36 hours.

An area of low pressure currently over the Northern Rockies is forecast to drop southeast into the Southern South Dakota-Northern Nebraska area by Morning.  This low will then head east into Northern Iowa-Southern Minnesota by Wednesday Evening and then it will move into the Southern-Central Wisconsin area by Thursday Morning.

On this track expect the axis of heaviest snow to setup over East Central Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Snow will extend north to the Highway 2 corridor in Minnesota and will also affect the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Snow should be much lighter as you get north of Highway 2 including over the Iron Range and Arrowhead.

Most of Northern Minnesota including the Borderland area should stay mainly dry the way it looks now.

Snow should begin in Southern parts of the area after Midnight Tonight with the area of snow shifting slowly toward the north during Wednesday Morning-early Afternoon.

The heaviest snowfall looks like it will be during the Afternoon and Evening hours of Wednesday.  Snowfall rates under the most intense bands could approach 1" an hour.

Wind will also be a big story with this storm thanks to the pressure difference between the low to our south and high pressure well to our northwest.  Expect northeast winds away from Lake Superior to be in the 10 to 25 mph range, but locations near Lake Superior should have wind gusts in the 30-40 mph range from Wednesday into Wednesday Evening.

Blowing and drifting snow will be an issue with this storm with very poor visibility at times.

Low temperatures Tonight will be in the teens and 20s although some Northern locales could fall into the single digits.  Lows Wednesday Night will be in the teens and 20s.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Thursday through Saturday (April 17-19)

Snow showers and flurries could linger into Thursday AM as low pressure exits to our east.  Friday looks dry.  Rain/showers are possible on Saturday as low pressure approaches from the west.  Note:  Right now it does appear that temperatures will be warm enough for liquid precipitation instead of frozen precipitation with this weekend's system.

High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 20s and 30s.  Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the 30s and 40s.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the teens and 20s.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 20s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(April 20-25)

Near to above average temperatures are forecast during this period.  Some showers could persist into Easter Sunday (20th)  A new storm could bring additional rain and possibly a few thunderstorms to the Northland during the 23rd-25th time frame.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

Event:  *WINTER STORM WARNING for Duluth*
Timing:  4 AM Wednesday until 10 AM CDT Thursday.

Event:  *WINTER STORM WARNING for Superior*
Timing:  10 AM Wednesday until 10 AM CDT Thursday.

.Tonight...  Clear during the Evening.  Increasing cloudiness late.  Low 18 to 23.  Wind variable around 10 mph becoming east at 10 to 20 mph late.

.Wednesday...  Windy.  East to northeast wind 15 to 30 mph with gusts to over 40 mph possible during the Afternoon.  Snow gradually developing.  High 25 to 30.  Areas of blowing and drifting snow possible.

.Wednesday Night...  Windy.  Northeast wind at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to over 40 mph possible during the Evening.  Wind becoming north at 15 to 20 mph late.  Snow which will taper off late in the night.  Total snowfall accumulations of 4-7" possible.  Low 20 to 25.

.Thursday...  Flurries possible early.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 38 to 43.

.Friday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  Rain possible.  High 35 to 40.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  50
Low:   30

Sunrise Wednesday:  6:19 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   7:59 PM CDT

Tim