Wednesday, April 26, 2017

Potential winter storm late this weekend. Storm reports from today in this post. Cold temps tonight/Thursday, lingering snow showers/mixed precip

/Issued 5:22 PM CDT, Wednesday, April 26, 2017/

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com

12z European model from April 26, 2017 valid for next Monday, May 1, 2017.
















Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for parts of the Northland (Purple shaded areas on maps below)

-The Ice Storm Warning for extreme northeast Minnesota has been cancelled

-The Winter Weather Advisory for the Twin Ports, far northwest Wisconsin, portions of the North Shore, Iron Range and Brainerd Lakes area has been cancelled.























Check out these temperatures from this afternoon! Normal highs for April 26 are in the mid to upper 50s, nothing close to that in our area today.












Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov





















Thursday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov





















*Local Storm Reports for April 26, 2017*
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Grand Marais, MN 3 W (Cook County)  Ice Storm.  Freezing rain accumulation of 0.30"

Lutsen, MN 18 NNW (Cook County)  Freezing rain 0.25 inch along with about 2.5" of sleet and snow

Finland, MN 3 SE (Lake County)  Freezing rain 0.20 inch

Hovland, MN 2 ENE (Cook County)  Ice Storm.  Freezing rain accumulation of 0.25".  0.5 inch sleet on the ground.

Grand Marais, MN 7 ENE (Cook County)  Ice Storm.  There was 1.5" of sleet and snow on the ground per spotter report.

Grand Marais, MN 21 N (Cook County)  Snow and sleet accumulation of 2.0"

Lutsen, MN 4 N (Cook County)  Freezing rain -- 0.25 inch

Grand Marais, MN 6 W (Cook County)  Freezing rain -- 0.25 inch

Grand Portage, MN (Cook County)  Freezing rain -- 0.25 inch

Saxon, WI 1 WSW (Iron County)  Freezing rain -- 0.25 inch

Island Lake, MN 6 E (St. Louis County)  Freezing rain -- 0.20 inch

Silver Bay, MN 1 W (Lake County)  Freezing rain -- 0.20 inch

Payne, MN 3 ENE (St. Louis County)  Freezing rain -- 0.20 inch

Little Marais, MN 4 SW (Cook County)  Freezing rain -- 0.10 inch

Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  Freezing rain -- 0.10 inch measured at the National Weather Service

Cloquet, MN 1 N (Carlton County)  Sleet -- 0.5 inch

Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  Sleet -- 0.5 inch measured at the National Weather Service

Glidden, WI 2 E (Ashland County)  Heavy rain -- 1.25 inch

Ashland, WI (Ashland County)  Heavy rain -- 1.26 inch

Glidden, WI 1 NW (Ashland County)  Heavy rain -- 1.13 inch

Bayfield, WI (Bayfield County)  Heavy rain -- 1.00 inch

Odanah, WI (Ashland County)  Heavy rain -- 1.47 inch

Precipitation reports from around the Northland
Source:  http://mesowest.utah.edu

Date:  April 25-26, 2017 (Totals listed below are through ~3 PM on April 26th)

Glidden, WI:  1.13 in
Ashland, WI:  1.04 in
Grand Marais, MN:  1.00 in
Two Harbors, MN:  0.86 in
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.77 in
Hayward, WI:  0.76 in
Silver Bay, MN:  0.76 in
Minong, WI:  0.76 in
Barnes, WI:  0.75 in
Phillips, WI:  0.74 in
Siren, WI:  0.73 in
Moose Lake, MN:  0.67 in
McGregor, MN:  0.58 in
Superior, WI:  0.57 in
Saginaw, MN:  0.48 in
Solon Springs, WI:  0.43 in
Ely, MN:  0.42 in
Grand Rapids, MN:  0.41 in
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN (Airport)  0.38 in
Cass Lake, MN:  0.31 in
Brainerd, MN:  0.26 in
Orr, MN:  0.26 in
Pine River, MN:  0.20 in

Link to Minnesota road conditions http://lb.511mn.org/mnlb/winterdriving/routeselect.jsf

Link to Wisconsin road conditions http://www.511wi.gov/web/traffic/winterroadconditions

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

A very chilly late April day across the Northland with widespread wintry precipitation this morning which led to slippery/slush covered roads -- Late this afternoon we're seeing an area of snow and mixed precip continuing to affect extreme northeast Minnesota while elsewhere over the Northland there were scattered areas of snow or mixed precipitation, most notably near the head of Lake Superior where some lake effect precipitation has formed late this afternoon.

Low pressure was centered north of Green Bay, Wisconsin as of 4 PM today, this low will lift N/NE and be centered just northeast of Lake Superior by Thursday evening.  An upper level low/trough will move across the upper Midwest during the next 24 hours...This entire system will become negatively tilted as it lifts through the Great Lakes.  Lingering snow, sleet and freezing rain is forecast over parts of the Northland through Thursday evening although precipitation rates should be lighter compared to what occurred earlier today -- The main impacts with some additional snow and or ice accumulations through Thursday evening are forecast to be over extreme northeast Minnesota and over eastern sections of northwest Wisconsin.

A very chilly airmass will be over our area into Thursday as 850mb temperatures drop to around -10 to -15 C.  Lows tonight will be in the teens and 20s with highs Thursday only in the 30s with 20s possible in far northern Minnesota.

It'll warm up Friday with highs getting into the 40s, possibly around 50 degrees but this will still be below average, although warmer than it has been recently.

The big story by late this weekend will be a potential winter storm that may hit portions of the Northland.  Low pressure is forecast to lift N/NE out of the southern Plains over the weekend, if this system comes far enough to the north, it will bring a swath of accumulating snow to parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin sometime between Sunday and Monday.  Note:  There is still a chance this system will track farther south/east than what the computer models have been showing recently, and this would reduce the potential for snow in our area.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Scattered snow showers.  Patchy freezing drizzle possible.  Overcast.  Low 21 to 26.  Wind north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy.  Cold! Flurries possible.  High 30 to 34.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Note:  Coldest high temperature on record for April 27th at Duluth is 32 degrees set in 1950; 2nd coldest is 33 degrees set in 1908; 3rd coldest 34 degrees set in 1969.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  55
Low:   35

Sunrise Thursday:  5:59 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   8:13 PM CDT

Tim









Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Rain this evening followed by a wintry mix of Sleet, Freezing Rain and Snow late tonight and Wed (Ice Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory in effect for parts of the Northland)

/Issued 5:12 PM CDT, Tuesday, April 25, 2017/

I tried my best to make the map below as simple as possible.

Breaking it down further:

For the Twin Ports of Duluth and Superior:  

-Rain develops this evening; Rain mixes with sleet or freezing rain on top of the hill after midnight while precipitation stays in the form of rain for locations below the hill.

-Sleet and freezing rain on top of the hill Wednesday morning with some ice and sleet accumulation expected.  Rain or sleet should transition to mainly sleet for locations below the hill Wednesday morning with some accumulation of sleet possible, as well as some light ice accumulation from freezing rain.

-Little if any snowfall accumulation is expected in the Twin Ports.

-Precipitation will begin to diminish Wednesday afternoon.

Note:  The Winter Weather Advisory for Duluth and Superior is in effect from 3 AM Wednesday til 7 PM Wednesday.

-Ice Storm Warning in far northeast Minnesota runs from 8 PM this evening til 10 PM Wednesday night.

-Winter Weather Advisory north of Duluth from 8 PM this evening til 7 PM Wednesday.

























Upper midwest radar loop through 5 PM today.  Source:  http://www.intellicast.com














Goes16 Water vapor satellite image from 5:17 PM CDT, April 25, 2017.

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/













Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/dlhwrf

12z WRF model (Duluth National Weather Service)

Tracking the freezing line -- Here's the temperature forecast for 7 PM this evening.
















7 AM Wednesday
















Second day in a row with an impressive temperature gradient!












24-hour rainfall totals through 7 AM today, April 25, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

International Falls, MN:  0.62 in
Kabetogama, MN:  0.45 in
Northome, MN:  0.30 in
Cass Lake, MN:  0.25 in
Ely, MN 25 E:  0.20 in
Orr, MN 3 E:  0.16 in
Isle, MN 12 N:  0.14 in
Embarrass, MN:  0.11 in
Island Lake, MN 4 E:  0.08 in
Grand Marais, MN:  0.05 in

Note:  After Wednesday's system exits the Northland will be left with chilly temperatures and possibly some flurries or snow showers on Thursday -- The next big system could affect us late this weekend, during the Sunday-Monday time frame...This storm if it comes far enough north could bring a decent amount of snow and gusty winds and possibly some mixed precipitation to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from Sunday into Monday.

Tim




Monday, April 24, 2017

Risk of Flash Flooding, Ice, Snow and Sleet Tue night-Wed. 50s and 60s Tue (Cooler near Lake Superior) Scattered showers tonight

/Issued 5:50 PM CDT, Monday, April 24, 2017/

A temperature gradient like the one that is forecast to be in place across the Northland Tuesday afternoon is a sure sign of a significant storm system.  Check this out, 20s north of Minnesota to the 70s in western Upper Michigan.  Weather nerds love this type of stuff!
















Note:  More details on the midweek and late weekend storm can be found a little farther down in this post.
















Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Note:  The risk area here in parts of the Northland is more for late Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday morning.
















A typical spring day around the Northland with strong NE winds (Cold temperatures near Lake Superior) while away from the lake in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin temperatures were much warmer in the 60s.












Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov





















Tuesday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov





















Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

A very wind and cool day near Lake Superior today with highs in the upper 30s along with east/northeast winds at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to around 40 mph.  Away from Lake Superior highs made it into the 60s from around the Brainerd Lakes, Hinckley, Solon Springs, Hayward Lakes and Park Falls area with upper 30s and mid 40s from the Iron Range and Borderland areas.  Low pressure was over far western Minnesota late this afternoon and some showers have been developing today in western-northern portions of the area as forcing increases as the surface low to our west moves closer to our area.

The low over western Minnesota will continue to move toward the E/NE tonight while a warm front over central Minnesota moves a little more to the NE while a cold front moves toward the east...The cold front by Tuesday morning is forecast to be over eastern Minnesota, and by Tuesday evening this front is forecast to extend from southern Minnesota toward west central Upper Michigan -- Occasional showers around the Northland for tonight, temperatures aloft and near the surface will remain warm enough for the precipitation to remain in the form of rain tonight.  Lows will range from the 30s in far northern Minnesota and near Lake Superior to the 40s elsewhere while a few locations in the far south remain around 50 degrees.

A brief break in the rain is expected Tuesday morning but rain is forecast to increase in coverage from SW-NE Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening.  There should be better lift and dynamics in place for a more widespread precipitation event Tuesday night compared to tonight.  Highs Tuesday will range from the 60s in eastern Minnesota and most of northwest Wisconsin with 30s in far northern Minnesota.

A variety of precipitation types on the table from late Tuesday night into Wednesday.  High pressure near Hudson Bay Canada will help bring colder air down on N/NE winds while low pressure to our SE brings moisture up into our area while it interacts with the cooling temps -- The net result from all this will be for the rain to mix with and change to freezing rain, sleet and snow from north to south across northeast Minnesota Tuesday night and potentially in portions of northwest Wisconsin mainly inland from Lake Superior.  Note:  Significant amounts of ice or sleet could accumulate late Tuesday night into Wednesday in parts of northeast Minnesota, there is also a chance for some snow accumulation, possibly in the 1-4 inch range the way it looks now.

As for the Twin Ports, North Shore and South Shore of Lake Superior -- Difficult forecast ahead from late Tuesday night through Wednesday.  I think the higher elevated areas inland from Lake Superior stand the best chance at seeing the rain mix with and change to freezing rain, sleet or snow late Tuesday night and Wednesday while locations below the hill in the Twin Ports have a lesser chance for freezing rain (Ice accumulations) but sleet may occur even at lower elevation areas by Wednesday morning.  With no ice covering Lake Superior it will be difficult to get the surface temperature cold enough to produce freezing rain.  Water temperatures over Lake Superior are right around 38 degrees, but if there was more ice coverage over the lake, these water temps would likely be a few degrees colder which would in turn increase the risk for icing even closer to Lake Superior, but that just isn't the case with this event.  Will have to rely on cold air advection to get the surface temperature low enough to support freezing rain, I just don't see enough cold air advection occurring by the lake for a freezing rain event, but still gotta watch it to see how it plays out.

As for the late weekend system, model trends today is taking this system more to the east which means a decreased threat of snow or rain in northeast Minnesota while a potential for snow or mixed precipitation continues over portions of northwest Wisconsin later this weekend.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Windy.  Occasional showers.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 37.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts especially this evening.

.Tuesday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers possible early and again later in the day.  High 52 to 57 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  54
Low:   34

Sunrise Tuesday:  6:03 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   8:11 PM CDT

Tim






Sunday, April 23, 2017

Gusty/Cool east winds thru Mon near Lake Superior. Snow tonight north of Duluth. Rain Mon PM; Snow/Rain/Ice potential midweek

/Issued 4:43 PM CDT, Sunday, April 23, 2017/

Source:  https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov

18z HRRRX model


















Suddenly the weather pattern is trending toward an active one after a relatively quiet spring around the Northland.  Several storm systems to keep an eye on through May 1st.

-System number one won't produce much snow in the Northland but some rain is likely Monday afternoon-early Tuesday morning.

-System number two could affect parts of the Northland sometime between late Tuesday night and Thursday, this one could bring accumulating snow or rain to parts of the area.

-A third system is possible for next weekend, this one could also bring accumulating snow or rain to parts of the Northland.




























Weather setup from this morning, April 23, 2017.












Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov





















Monday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov





















Temperature departure map for the week of April 16th, 2017.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/





















Precipitation departure map for the week of April 16th, 2017.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/





















Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

April 16-22, 2017

High temperatures:

4/16:  62 F/+12 degrees above normal
4/17:  42 F/-8 degrees below normal
4/18:  43 F/-8 degrees below normal
4/19:  45 F/-6 degrees below normal
4/20:  41 F/-11 degrees below normal
4/21:  60 F/+8 degrees above normal
4/22:  68 F/+15 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

4/16:  33 F/+3 degrees above normal
4/17:  30 F/-1 degree below normal
4/18:  30 F/-1 degree below normal
4/19:  35 F/+3 degrees above normal
4/20:  34 F/+2 degrees above normal
4/21:  34 F/+2 degrees above normal
4/22:  36 F/+3 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  1.58"
Normal:  0.99"
Departure:  +0.99" above normal

*Snowfall reports from around the Northland*
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Date:  April 23, 2017

Walker, MN 5 E:  3.5 in
Hackensack, MN 2 NNE:  3.3 in
Walker, MN 1 NW:  2.5 in
Two Harbors, MN 7 NW:  2.0 in
Shaw, MN 3 N:  1.8 in
Blackberry, MN:  1.5 in
Castle Danger, MN 6 WNW:  1.4 in
Island Lake, MN 6 E:  1.6 in
Cloquet, MN 1 N:  1.0 in
Duluth, MN (National Weather Service)  0.6 in

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

After a very nice Friday and Saturday the weather today is a step back toward late winter conditions with much colder temperatures along with some snow and rain.  Temperatures this Sunday afternoon were only in the 30s in most of the Northland although some locations in the far south were in the mid 40s to low 50s (Hinckley to Hayward to Park Falls corridor)

There is a strong cold front that was over south central Minnesota this afternoon with an impressive thermal gradient in place with late afternoon 850mb temperatures of -6 C in northern Minnesota to +8 C in southern Minnesota.  Surface temperatures ranged from the 30s north of the front across northern Minnesota to the lower 70s on the warm side of the front over southern Minnesota.

The aforementioned cold front will begin to lift slowly toward the north through Monday evening while low pressure heads E/NE out of the western High Plains.  An F-GEN induced band of snow and mixed precipitation will continue to affect areas mainly from the Iron Range on north tonight with snowfall of a coating up to 3 inches possible by daybreak -- The remainder of the Northland should remain dry tonight although some patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle could develop near Lake Superior.

Chances for rain will increase from west to east across the Northland for Monday and Monday night.  Looks like boundary layer temperatures will be warm enough for mostly rain with the greater chances for wintry precipitation north of the border.  Note:  Rain chances will be greatest over western portions of the area during the day Monday with the rain chances increasing later Monday afternoon or Monday night in eastern portions of the Northland including in the Twin Ports.

Lows tonight will range from the mid 20s to the 30s with highs Monday in the 50s and 60s over southern areas with 40s across the north and upper 30s near Lake Superior.

Note:  The period from Tuesday night through Thursday could potentially be an active one but model differences are evident on the tracks of one or two low pressure systems coming out of the southern or central Plains.  Right now everything is on the table including the potential for a significant winter storm with >4" snowfall, freezing rain with accumulating ice, and also just rain, there is also a chance this entire mess stays farther south/east than what some of the computer models are showing today.  Stay tuned.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy drizzle possible with patchy freezing drizzle on top of the hill.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

.Monday...  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  A few showers possible mainly later in the afternoon.  High 40 to 45; Around 38 near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  54
Low:   34

Sunrise Monday:  6:05 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   8:10 PM CDT

Tim




Friday, April 21, 2017

60s Saturday. 20-30 degrees colder Sunday with possible snow/rain. 2017 severe weather stats in this post

/Issued 5:39 PM CDT, Friday, April 21, 2017/

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com

18z NAM 3km
















Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

















Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

2017 severe weather reports thru April 20th:

Minnesota:





















Wisconsin:





















It's been an active year for tornadoes thus far.  All of the red dots on the map below are tornado reports thru April 20th, 2017.  Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Note:  So far this year Georgia has had the most tornado reports at 105.  2nd place is Texas with 77.  3rd Missouri with 62 reports.  4th is Louisiana at 52, and rounding out the top 5 is Illinois with 37 tornado reports so far this year.















Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/














Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov





















Saturday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov





















Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Finally dried out today with abundant sunshine over the Northland with mild high temperatures in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s with slightly cooler temperatures closer to Lake Superior.

Quiet and dry tonight with lows in the 30s to lower 40s; mainly clear skies are expected.  Saturday will feature sunny to mostly sunny skies with increasing cloudiness from north to south during the afternoon-evening hours thanks to a cold front which will drop S/SE through the Northland.  This front could produce a few rain or snow showers in northern Minnesota Saturday night.  Temperatures on Saturday will be on the mild side with highs generally in the upper 50s and 60s.

Colder temperatures move in for Sunday as tomorrow afternoon's cold front reaches southern Minnesota while high pressure to our NW allows for a chillier airmass to filter into our area.  There is also a threat for some precipitation on Sunday, and this precipitation could be in the form of snow or rain with light snowfall accumulations possible in parts of the area.

Next week still has potential to turn stormy at times -- The first system will affect the area Monday-Tuesday with scattered rains while far northern Minnesota sees snow or a rain/snow mix.  Two more storms could affect the Northland sometime during the April 27th-30th time frame -- Rain or snow is possible with those systems later next week/next weekend depending on their tracks and the thermal profile of the atmosphere.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Clear.  Low 37 to 42.  Wind variable around 10 mph.

.Saturday...  Mostly sunny.  High 61 to 66.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  53
Low:   33

Sunrise Saturday:  6:08 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   8:07 PM CDT

Tim







Thursday, April 20, 2017

Drying out the next few days but a stormy weather pattern is setting up for next week

/Issued 5:27 PM CDT, Thursday, April 20, 2017/

A more tranquil weather pattern for the next few days but next week has potential to turn stormy at times.  The first system is set to affect the Northland early in the week while a second storm could hit sometime later next week/next weekend, April 27-30 time frame.
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov





















Friday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov





















Precipitation reports from around the Northland
Source:  http://mesowest.utah.edu

Note:  Totals listed below are from April 20, 2017

Ashland, WI:  0.87 in
Two Harbors, MN:  0.84 in
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.73 in
Washburn, WI:  0.72 in
Barnes, WI:  0.72 in
Clam Lake, WI:  0.65 in
Isabella, MN:  0.54 in
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN:  0.52 in
Phillips, WI:  0.52 in
Minong, WI:  0.51 in
Siren, WI:  0.45 in
Hill City, MN:  0.44 in
Moose Lake, MN:  0.41 in
Saginaw, MN:  0.40 in
Grand Rapids, MN:  0.40 in
Ely, MN:  0.39 in
Brainerd, MN:  0.39 in
Grand Marais, MN:  0.29 in
Hinckley, MN:  0.27 in
Cass Lake, MN:  0.26 in
Solon Springs, WI:  0.26 in
Orr, MN:  0.14 in
Cook, MN:  0.08 in

Note:  It doesn't take long for things to change around here.  Most of this month has been dry here in Duluth but with the last two precipitation events, we're now running above normal in the precipitation department for April and slightly above normal for the spring.  See stats below.

April precipitation total (Thru the 20th)  2.02"
Departure:  +0.53" above normal

Spring precipitation total (Since March 1st)  3.07"
Departure:  +0.09" above normal

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

A wet and in some areas a white late April day as low pressure tracked E/NE across southern Wisconsin and into the south half of Lake Michigan late this afternoon -- A trough connected to this low extended NW into central Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota.  Widespread rain and drizzle fell today in northeast Minnesota and far northern Wisconsin while snow or a rain/snow mix occurred in higher elevation areas inland from Lake Superior in northeast Minnesota.  Highs today ranged from the 50s around the International Falls area with 30s near Lake Superior and 40s elsewhere across the Northland.

Low pressure will track from southern Lake Michigan to eastern Ontario Province by dawn.  Light rain, drizzle and some snow will linger this evening in parts of northeast Minnesota and far northern Wisconsin with mainly dry conditions expected in these areas by late tonight.  Northern Minnesota will stay dry through the night.  Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies tonight with lows mainly in the 30s.

Nicer spring weather returns for Friday and Saturday as high pressure builds south through the upper Midwest and central Plains.  Mostly sunny Friday with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.  Highs Saturday should mainly be in the 60s.

Cooler weather returns on Sunday thanks to a cold front which sweeps through the area Saturday night.  Highs Sunday will mainly be in the 40s with 30s in extreme northeast Minnesota.

Rain is possible next Monday and Tuesday as low pressure tracks east/northeast out of the northern Plains.  There is also potential for some snow or a wintry mix of precipitation especially over far northern Minnesota.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Lingering light rain, drizzle and snow early otherwise mostly cloudy with some partial clearing at times.  Patchy fog.  Low 31 to 35.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph becoming northwest late.

.Friday...  Mostly sunny.  High 54 to 59 but it could turn cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  52
Low:   32

Sunrise Friday:  6:10 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   8:05 PM CDT

Tim


Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Strong NE winds to 40 mph with Rain and Snow tonight-Thursday (Some snow accumulation possible) 60s return Saturday; Stormy pattern setting up for next week

/Issued 5:05 PM CDT, Wednesday, April 19, 2017/

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com

18z NAM 3km
















Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/dlhwrf
















Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/

Slight (Yellow) and Marginal (Dark Green) risks of severe thunderstorms tonight as far north as southern Minnesota and roughly the southern half of Wisconsin.














Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov





















Thursday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov





















Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

A break in the rain and snow today as Tuesday's system heads into eastern Canada while the next system organizes to our southwest over eastern Colorado and southern Nebraska.  There is a very strong boundary that separates very warm air to the south and cooler air to the north, this boundary extended from southeast Nebraska to south central Iowa late this afternoon.  Temperatures just north of that front were in the mid 50s to mid 60s while just south of that front temperatures were in the 80s!  The Northland is well north of that frontal boundary today with temperatures in our area generally in the mid 40s to low 50s with upper 30s near Lake Superior.  Winds out of the east or northeast have been increasing near Lake Superior today due to the difference in pressure between a high over western Ontario Province and the surface lows to our southwest.

Rain will spread northeast this evening into east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin as low pressure tracks into Iowa -- This low will move into south central Wisconsin Thursday morning then to northern Lower Michigan by late Thursday afternoon -- This system will continue to bring precipitation to portions of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Thursday with mainly dry conditions expected through Thursday in extreme northern Minnesota.

There is a chance for a few thunderstorms tonight over far southern areas of the Northland but the potential for severe thunderstorms will stay south of our area tonight.

Dynamical cooling will occur tonight and Thursday morning with temperatures aloft and near the surface becoming cold enough to support either a rain/snow mix, or a complete changeover from rain to snow in parts of the Northland.

850mb temperatures are forecast to drop to between 0 and -4 degrees C while 925mb temperatures fall to around -1 C.  Meanwhile surface temperatures are expected to fall into the 30 to 34 degree range from late tonight through Thursday morning, rising a bit Thursday afternoon.  These temperatures will support the potential for wintry precipitation, especially underneath heavier bands of precipitation from late tonight through early Thursday afternoon.

Now that we're heading into late April and with relatively warm ground temperatures it will be difficult for the snow to stick especially in lower elevation areas such as near Lake Superior, but inland locations away from Lake Superior in both northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin stand a better chance for the snow to accumulate with a few inches of slushy accumulation expected by Thursday afternoon -- Motorists should be prepared to changing road conditions late tonight into Thursday morning with some roads possibly becoming slush and or snow covered mainly away from Lake Superior.  Visibility could be reduced to around a mile due to the falling snow.

Another component to this spring storm will be the strong gusty winds near Lake Superior.  East to northeast winds will continue to ramp up tonight with gusts of 25 to around 40 mph developing, these gusty winds will likely persist into early Thursday afternoon before they begin to diminish while shifting to the N/NW later Thursday afternoon.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the 30s with highs Thursday ranging from the mid 30s/low 40s in northwest Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota to the mid 40s/low 50s in the far west/northwest portions of the Northland.

Nicer spring weather is expected Friday-Saturday with daytime highs in the 50s to lower 60s on Friday (Cooler near Lake Superior)  Highs Saturday look to be mainly in the 60s.

Note:  The potential for a stormy weather pattern is setting up for next week with multiple low pressure systems possibly affecting the upper Midwest.  April 24-25, and between April 27-30 is when the Northland could get more precipitation (Mostly rain the way it looks now) Gusty E/NE winds will also occur at times next week.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Windy.  Rain developing after 8 PM.  Rain mixing with and possibly changing to snow overnight especially on top of the hill.  Low 33 to 35.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

.Thursday...  Windy.  Snow or a mix of snow and rain on top of the hill with snowfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches possible.  Rain, drizzle and some snow below the hill with up to 1 inch of slushy snow possible.  High 35 to 40.  Wind northeast at 15 to 30 mph decreasing to 10 to 20 mph and becoming north later in the afternoon.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  52
Low:   32

Sunrise Thursday:  6:11 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   8:04 PM CDT

Tim