Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Heavy lake effect snow late tonight-Friday along the South Shore of Lake Superior; Update on this weekend's possible snow event and on next week's arctic blast

/Issued 5:12 PM CST, Wednesday, December 7, 2016/

The big story through Friday will be the heavy lake effect snowfall along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northern Wisconsin east of Douglas County.

More information on the various headlines at the following links

Lake Effect Snow Warning http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=lake%20effect%20snow%20warning

Lake Effect Snow Advisory http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=lake%20effect%20snow%20advisory











An update on the weekend snow event.

I put together two possible outcomes based on today's model data.  This first image would be a snowier solution for Duluth, the North Shore and South Shore of Lake Superior and southern portions of the Northland.  A few inches of system snow plus a few more inches of lake enhanced snow would occur in the Twin Ports based on the solution below.















The second solution (Shown below) would produce little if any snow in the Twin Ports area and over most of the Northland.  A farther south storm track and a less intense low pressure system compared to the image above.

There is quite a bit uncertainty with this weekend's snow event.  Stay tuned.















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/



















Thursday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/



















Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 998mb was over southern Hudson Bay Canada with arctic high pressure of 1044mb over southern Alberta Province.  Gusty winds and occasional snow showers lingered across the Northland today with highs generally in the mid teens to mid 20s which is near to below average by around 5 degrees, not epic cold by any means but certainly a little shocking when you step outdoors considering how warm it has been up until the past few days.  As mentioned above, the wind was still whipping around today with a west or southwest wind at 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 25-35 mph.  Late afternoon wind chills were generally in the single digits and teens but subzero chills were reported at 4 PM at Brainerd (-2 F)

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (December 7)

A trough of low pressure will swing S-SE through the area tonight which will keep snow showers and flurries going through the night.  A wind shift will occur behind the trough with winds going from W-SW to the N-NW.  Low temperatures will be in teens and 20s so little change from today's high temps.  Wind speeds will range from 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.

Thursday (December 8)

Arctic high pressure near 1050mb will build into the northern Plains on Thursday while a trough lingers over the western Great Lakes region.  Scattered flurries and snow showers should continue tomorrow with highs in the teens and 20s.  Lows Thursday night will be in the single digits and teens.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Extended Forecast...

Friday (December 9)

Mainly dry on Friday with highs mainly in the teens.  Lows Friday night will range from the single digits below to around 10 above zero.

Saturday (December 10)

Snow, or no snow?  Models are in disagreement at the moment so this could go either way.  It does look dry during the day, if snow does move into the Northland it would likely hold off until the evening or overnight period.  Highs on Saturday will be in the teens to around 20 degrees.

Note:  Next week still looks frigid with perhaps a few days in a row where high temperatures struggle to hit zero in parts of the Northland -- Low temperatures are forecast to be in the teens, 20s and 30s below zero with the coldest temperatures expected to hit Tuesday-Thursday (December 13-15)

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Occasional snow showers and flurries.  Low 17 to 21.  Wind west at 15 to 25 mph.

.Thursday...  Flurries or snow showers.  High 23 to 28.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  24
Low:   10

Sunrise Thursday:  7:41 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   4:20 PM CST

Tim




Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Gusty winds, colder temperatures with snow showers through Thursday; Heavy lake effect snow along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northern Wisconsin later this week; Weekend snow potential; Barbaric cold possible next week

/Issued 4:46 PM CST, Tuesday, December 6, 2016/

Keeping an eye on a potential snow event that may affect northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this weekend, especially Saturday evening through Sunday morning the way it looks now.  Potential does exist for a swath of about 2-4" of powdery snow (Possibly a little more or less depending on a few things) This snow will be fluffy and not the wet slushy kind that we have seen with the past few events, a lot colder this time around compared to previous systems.

Source:  wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
















Light blue area on map=Lake Effect Snow Watch.

More information at this link http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=lake%20effect%20snow%20watch











Next week continues to look brutally cold across the northern Rockies, northern Plains, Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region -- The image below shows forecasted 500mb heights for next Tuesday, December 13th per 12z Euro Ensemble model.  Source http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

You know you're dealing with true Siberian/Arctic air when heights are as low as they are forecast to be around the early-middle portion of next week.  Very impressive!













Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/



















Wednesday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/



















Snowfall reports for December 5-6, 2016
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Grand Marais, MN 4 NNE:  8.0"
International Falls, MN 1 SSE:  5.6"
Phillips, WI 3 W:  5.0"
Lutsen, MN 3 W:  5.0"
Park Falls, WI:  3.0"

Embarrass, MN:  3.0"
Glidden, WI:  3.0"
Hibbing, MN:  3.0"
Pine River, MN 7 WSW:  2.6"
Mckinley, MN:  2.5"

Hoyt Lakes, MN 1 ENE:  2.5"
Walker, MN 1 S:  2.0"
Brainerd, MN 3 NNW:  2.0"
Hermantown, MN 3 NE:  1.7" (Official total at the National Weather Service)

Ely, MN 1 SSW:  1.6"
Hayward, WI:  1.5"
Mahtowa, MN 3 N:  1.2"
Lutsen, MN 2 WSW:  1.0"

Note:  Click on this link for snowfall totals outside of the Northland from this latest winter storm http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Falling temperatures, gusty winds and some snow in the Northland today.  Dual lows averaging 996mb extended from southwest Ontario Province to northwest Minnesota with strong 12-hour 500mb height falls of 120-180 meters covering northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin today.  Snow showers and flurries have been common throughout the day with more persistent snow earlier in the day affecting far northeast Minnesota and eastern portions of northwest Wisconsin.

Highs today occurred early this morning when temperatures were in the 30s, even close to 40 degrees in a few locations near Lake Superior.  Temperatures have been dropping since sunrise, and late this afternoon temperatures were mostly in the upper teens to middle 20s.  Winds today were out of the south, southwest or northeast at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.  Note:  Late day wind chills or feels like temperatures were in the single digits and teens.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight through Wednesday night (December 6-7)

There won't be much change in our weather through Wednesday night -- Low pressure will center itself north/northeast of the Northland while a couple of disturbances and troughs rotate around that low.

Occasional snow showers and flurries will persist into tomorrow night with light snowfall accumulations of a half inch up to 2.0" possible.

Low temperatures tonight and Wednesday night will be in the teens to around 20 degrees with single digits possible in western areas.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the teens and 20s.

Winds will be out of the southwest tonight, shifting to a more westerly direction Wednesday, then west or northwest Wednesday night.  Wind speeds will range from 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.  Wind chills will remain in the single digits and teens through Wednesday night.

Note:  As winds shift to the northwest, lake effect snow will develop along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northern Wisconsin, affecting Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties from late Wednesday night but more so from Thursday into Friday.  Significant snow accumulation is expected with frigid temperatures flowing over the still mild lake where water temperatures remain in the lower 40s.

.Extended Forecast...

Thursday (December 8)

Strong high pressure builds into the northern Plains on Thursday while a couple of troughs remain over our area.  Scattered snow showers and flurries should continue on Thursday with highs in the teens and 20s.  Lows Thursday night will be in the single digits and teens.

Friday (December 9)

Chilly but mostly dry with highs in the single digits and teens.

Note:  Snow is possible this weekend, and after that the hammer could drop with potentially some bitterly cold temperatures moving into the Northland sometime next week...Right now the time frame for this extreme cold looks to be from the 13th-16th but that could change in coming days.  Daytime highs could stay below zero while low temperatures range from the teens, 20s to 30s below zero around the middle part of next week.  Wind chills could also be dangerously low at times, ranging from 25 below to 45 below zero.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Occasional snow showers and flurries.  Breezy.  Low 15 to 19.  Wind west to southwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Wednesday...  Occasional snow showers and flurries.  Breezy.  High 19 to 22.  Wind west at 15 to 25 mph.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  25
Low:   11

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:40 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   4:20 PM CST

Tim





Monday, December 5, 2016

Several inches of snow in parts of the Northland tonight; Rain-snow mix (Less snow accumulation closer to Lake Superior) Windy, colder with lingering snow showers Tue-Thu; Weekend snow potential; Brutally cold next week

/Issued 4:50 PM CST, Monday, December 5, 2016/

Another tough snowfall forecast especially for areas near Lake Superior as it looks like the warm air is winning out which should result in only minor slushy snowfall amounts (If any) near the lake tonight.











Winter weather headlines map - More information on the various headlines at the links below.

Blizzard warning (Red area on map) http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=fgf&wwa=blizzard%20warning

Winter storm warning (Pink area on map) http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20storm%20warning

Winter weather advisory (Purple area on map) http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory











Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/















Surface map forecast valid at 7 AM CST Tuesday per 18z RAP model.  Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/

Cold air will move up from the SW on Tuesday.  Morning temperatures around 30 degrees in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin will fall through into the 20s, and perhaps into the teens.  Arctic air will be found over the northern Rockies with subzero temperatures as far east as the western Dakotas Tuesday morning.















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/



















Tuesday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/



















Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Quick changes today! Was nice to finally get some sun in parts of the area including in the Twin Ports today but clouds are thickening up once again late this afternoon as a new storm system takes aim at the Northland.  Highs today were mainly in the 30s with winds turning to the east at 5 to 15 mph.

Low pressure was over eastern South Dakota at 3 PM today with a rapidly developing area of snow or mixed precipitation expanding north/east across central-eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (December 5)

Low pressure tracks northeast out of eastern South Dakota and into northwest Minnesota by daybreak.  This storm will bring snow to most of the Northland tonight with rain or snow and possibly some sleet expected from eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin, and also closer to Lake Superior.

Temperatures won't drop much tonight since will remain east of the surface low which results in a warm air advection pattern.  Temperatures will be in the 30-35 degree range most of the night but will fall into the 20s in western-southwest portions of the area by daybreak.  Winds out of the east or southeast at 10 to 20 mph will shift to the south or southwest toward daybreak.

Tuesday (December 6)

Blustery and turning colder! Low pressure is forecast to move slowly E/NE out of northwest Minnesota on Tuesday while an arctic front approaches from the W/SW.  Snow showers and flurries are likely behind this low on Tuesday with falling temperatures ranging from the lower teens to lower 20s.  Winds will be out of the south or southwest at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts possible.

.Extended Forecast...

Wednesday and Thursday (December 7-8)

Brisk and colder with occasional snow showers.  High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to be in the teens and 20s with similar low temperatures expected for Wednesday night.  Note:  Wind chills (Feels like temperatures) will likely range from around 10 below to 5 above zero during the middle of the week.

Note:  Keeping an eye on a potential snow maker for this weekend (10th-11th) Next week still has potential to be brutally cold around the Northland, time frame for that 13th-18th.  Subzero daytime highs possible with nighttime lows 10 below to 30 below zero.  Dangerously low wind chills also possible at times.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Event:  *Winter Weather Advisory for Duluth*
Timing:  Until 6 AM CST Tuesday

.Tonight...  Wet snow away from Lake Superior with total accumulation of around 2-3".  Rain and wet snow closer to Lake Superior with total snowfall accumulation of around 1" possible.  Breezy.  Areas of fog and drizzle.  Low 28 to 33.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday...  Breezy and colder.  Snow showers and flurries possible especially in the afternoon.  High 28 to 33 early with temperatures falling to around 20 degrees.  Wind southwest at 15 to 25 mph.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  25
Low:   11

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:39 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   4:20 PM CST

Tim




Sunday, December 4, 2016

2-5" of snow reported in the Northland today. Next system arrives Monday PM with some snow/mixed precip possible; Gusty winds, turning colder with snow showers Tue-Thu

/Issued 5:35 PM CST, Sunday, December 4, 2016/

One system moves out, the next one moves in Monday afternoon and lingers into midweek.  Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/















Wednesday morning Wind Chill forecast per 18z NAM.  Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com/















Kind of an interesting setup for today with two plumes of moisture which is indicated by the numbers 1 and 2 on the map, this plus the twist (Lift) moving east out of the Dakotas helped to generate today's snowfall in the Northland.  Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/















Temperature departure map for the week of November 27th.  Source:  http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/

Last week was way above normal compared to average with the overnight lows well above normal.















Precipitation departure map for the week of November 27th.  Source:  http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/

Most of the Northland had above average precipitation totals last week.















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/



















Monday's high temperature forecast.  Source: http://graphical.weather.gov/



















Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

November 27-December 3, 2016

High temperatures:

11/27:  37 F/+8 degrees above normal
11/28:  45 F/+16 degrees above normal
11/29:  42 F/+14 degrees above normal
11/30:  37 F/+9 degrees above normal
12/1:  34 F/+7 degrees above normal
12/2:  29 F/+2 degrees above normal
12/3:  29 F/+3 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

11/27:  30 F/+14 degrees above normal
11/28:  37 F/+22 degrees above normal
11/29:  34 F/+19 degrees above normal
11/30:  34 F/+20 degrees above normal
12/1:  27 F/+13 degrees above normal
12/2:  26 F/+13 degrees above normal
12/3:  26 F/+13 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.92"
Normal:  0.37"
Departure:  +0.55" above normal

Snowfall reports for December 4, 2016
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Palmers, MN 2 WNW:  5.0"
Lester Park, MN 3 WSW:  4.5" Note:  Reported in Hunters Park in Duluth.
McKinley, MN:  4.0"
French River, MN 5 NW:  4.0"
Two Harbors, MN 1 NW:  4.0"

Silver Bay, MN:  3.3"
Hibbing, MN:  3.0"
Proctor, MN:  3.0" Note:  Reported at the top of Spirit Mountain.
Keewatin, MN 1 SE:  2.8"
Two Harbors, MN:  2.7"

Biwabik, MN 7 NW:  2.5"
Alger, MN 4 ENE:  2.4"
Garrison, MN 3 N:  2.0"
Prentice, WI 3 S:  2.0"
Esko, MN:  2.0"

Solon Springs, WI 1 S:  2.0"
Ashland, WI 2 SE:  1.5"
Winter, WI:  1.5"
Breezy Point, MN 4 NNE:  1.5"

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

A mild day but also a snowy one as a fairly potent disturbance moved east out of the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest while a separate disturbance moved northeast across eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin -- The combination of both of those features resulted in widespread light to moderate snow across the area today with accumulations ranging from 1" to as much as 5" through 3 PM.

Highs today were generally in the lower to middle 30s with south or southeast winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (December 4)

Snow showers will come to an end this evening as a trough of low pressure exits to the east.  Mostly cloudy skies for tonight with areas of fog, drizzle and freezing drizzle.  Lows will be in the 20s to lower 30s with winds shifting from the southeast to the southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Monday (December 5)

A new area of low pressure along with its warm front and cold front will track east across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest.  Mostly cloudy skies will continue on Monday with some snow or mixed precipitation possible at times.  Patchy fog and drizzle (Freezing drizzle in spots) are also possible through tomorrow evening.  Highs on Monday will be in the 30s with lows Monday night in the 20s to around 30°.  Winds on Monday will shift to the east or southeast at 10 to 15 mph.  Winds Monday night will shift from the E/SE to the S/SW later in the night.

.Extended Forecast...

Tuesday and Wednesday (December 6-7)

Colder temperatures move in by midweek.  Strong area of low pressure will be centered off to our north with cold air advection and gusty winds occurring to the west/south of the surface low.  Occasional snow showers and flurries will probably occur both Tuesday and Wednesday with minor snow accumulations possible.

Temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday are forecast to be in the teens and 20s but wind chills or feels like temperatures will likely range from around 10 above to 10 below zero.

Note:  Overall looking out the next two weeks or so it looks cold! Some of the coldest air may actually move into the Northland sometime during the December 12th-21st time frame, this is when the hammer could drop with brutally cold air possibly affecting us...Lows in the 20s and 30s below zero, daytime highs not getting above 0! This isn't a guarantee just yet since it's still a ways down the road but the possibility is certainly there for some epic cold air around our area by mid December.

Looks like we could also be dealing with a couple of snow events through mid December.

Lots of potential for an active/cold pattern into mid December! Will see what happens...

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Snow showers this evening with additional accumulations less than 1". Total event accumulations from today ranging from 2-4".  Areas of fog and drizzle through the night with patchy freezing drizzle also possible.  Low 26 to 30°.  Wind becoming southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog or drizzle possible.  Light snow or mixed precipitation possible later in the day.  High 30 to 35°.  Wind becoming east at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  26
Low:   12

Sunrise Monday:  7:38 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   4:21 PM CST

Tim








1-3" of snow expected in most of the Northland today (Higher totals along the North Shore)

/Issued 6:50 AM CST, Sunday, December 4, 2016/

Radar image from 6:30 AM.

Green colors=Somewhat heavier snowfall











Upper Midwest radar loop ending at 6:15 AM CST.  Source:  http://www.intellicast.com/













Winter Weather Advisory continues today for the areas shaded in purple.  Note:  The advisory for extreme northeast Minnesota goes until 9 PM this evening, more information on this advisory at this link http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory

Source:  http://wx.aerisweather.com/















Total snowfall accumulations for today per 09z HRRRX model.  Source:  http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/

















Link to Minnesota road conditions http://lb.511mn.org/mnlb/

Link to Wisconsin road conditions http://www.511wi.gov/web/traffic/winterroadconditions

Need help with snow and ice removal?  Contact ATK Duluth http://www.atkduluth.com/snow-duluth/

Light snow was falling across much of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin at 6 AM with temperatures in the mid 20s to around 30 degrees.

2 features of interest for today -- The first is already affecting eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin in the form of an upper level disturbance while the second feature moves east across North Dakota which will move into the Northland this afternoon-early this evening.

Light snow should continue this morning in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with additional snow showers or possibly some mixed precipitation expected this afternoon-evening as that energy currently over North Dakota moves this way.

Total snowfall accumulations today will generally range from 1" to 2" across the Northland with isolated 3" totals possible in east central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.

Southeast wind coming off Lake Superior will lead to lake enhanced snow along the North Shore today with the entire Highway 61 corridor being affected from just northeast of Duluth through Silver Bay, Grand Marais and Grand Portage -- Snow totals could reach 3-5" along portions of the North Shore today with lower amounts near the immediate lakeshore.

Not a huge snow event by any means but there will be enough snow to make roads slick and hazardous especially this morning, and throughout the day along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Tim