Wednesday, April 23, 2014

April 23, 2014 - Weather report. Rain develops Tonight; Rain/snow with significant snow accumulations possible Thu-Fri AM; Winter Storm Watch issued for the Arrowhead/North Shore.

/Issued 3:43 PM CDT, Wednesday, April 23, 2014/

Rainfall accumulation forecast - ending at 8 AM Thursday.  Source, RAP model (19z run)  Note: Additional precipitation is likely after 8 AM Thursday.

The green and yellow colors represent 0.10-0.50" totals.



















Total precipitation forecast valid thru Friday Morning.  Source, 18z Hi-Res WRF model.

Quite a bit of precipitation is expected over the Northland with totals ranging from 0.50-1.75" from Tonight through Friday AM.



















Here's my snowfall accumulation forecast valid for Thursday Afternoon through Friday Morning. The heaviest amounts are expected to be north/northeast of Duluth the way it looks now.



















*WINTER STORM WATCH*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A winter storm watch has been issued for parts of Northeast Minnesota.

Timing:

Thursday Afternoon through Friday Morning.

Counties included in the watch:

Cook MN
Lake MN

Some cities included in the watch:

Grand Portage
Hovland
Grand Marais
Lutsen
Isabella
Silver Bay
Finland
Whyte
Forest Center
Two Harbors

Discussion:

Rain begins late Tonight with rain mixing with and turning to snow on Thursday.  Snow continues Thursday Night into Friday Morning before ending.

Total snowfall accumulations:

6" or more of snow is possible in the watch area.

Wind/visibility:

East winds will gust to more than 20 mph.

Impacts:

Driving conditions are expected to deteriorate Thursday Afternoon and Thursday Night across the Minnesota Arrowhead.  The snow will initially melt especially on roadways.  However as the day wears on there will be a slippery and wet accumulation of snow.  The snow will accumulate at a faster pace later Thursday and Thursday Night.  Some freezing rain may also fall for a period of time.

**A winter storm watch means there is a potential for significant snow, sleet, or ice accumulation that may impact travel.  Continue to monitor the latest forecasts**

NWS hazards map.

Blue=Winter Storm Watch

















------------------------------

Today's Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

High pressure of 1022mb covered the Central Great Lakes late This Afternoon with low pressure of 998mb over Southern South Dakota with a 996mb low over Eastern Colorado.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies were found in our area Today.  Rain moved into Southwest/Southern parts of the Northland This Afternoon ahead of that storm over the Western High Plains region.  High temperatures Today were in the 40s and 50s with southeast or east winds at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (April 23)

Mostly cloudy skies will occur Tonight with occasional rain as low pressure approaches from the southwest. Low temperatures will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees with east or southeast winds at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

Thursday and Thursday Night (April 24)

Low pressure will stretch NW-SE from Southern Canada to the Southern Great Lakes during this period as an upper level trough becomes negatively tilted as it pushes into the Upper Midwest.

This system will bring rain to the Northland on Thursday but as temperatures cool at the surface and aloft the rain is expected to mix with and change over to snow.  Note:  The heaviest snowfall is forecast to be over Northeast Minnesota, especially in higher terrain areas adjacent to Lake Superior and also over the Arrowhead and along the Gunflint Trail...These locations could pick up a significant amount of wet heavy snow by Friday Morning.

The rest of the Northland could get a light coating of slush once the changeover to snow occurs, but right now it appears that the bulk of the accumulating snow would remain in far Northeastern Minnesota.

Temperatures Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night will mainly be in the 30s with east or northeast winds through Thursday Evening at 10 to 20 mph.  Winds late Thursday Night will swing around to the north or west at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Friday through Sunday (April 25-27)

Snow showers should be winding down Friday Morning over far Northeast Minnesota as low pressure exits the region.  This weekend will find a deep low pressure system moving out of the Rockies and into the West Central Plains while a large area of high pressure develops over Hudson Bay and Ontario.  The high to our north should feed a copious amount of dry air into the Northland which should keep any rain associated with that Rockies storm away from our area.

High temperatures will be in the 30s near Lake Superior from Friday through Sunday with 40s and 50s elsewhere.  Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(April 28-May 3)

Below average temperatures are expected through this period.  There could be some showers at times from April 30th-May 2nd as an upper level low/trough cuts-off to our south/east.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Rain developing.  Low 34 to 37.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Breezy.  Occasional rain.  Rain could mix with and change to snow during the Afternoon.  High 34 to 37.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.

.Thursday Night...  Snow or mixed rain and snow tapering off late.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 33.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest late.

.Friday...  Considerable cloudiness.  High 41 to 46.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 37 to 42.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 37 to 42.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  53
Low:   33

Sunrise Thursday:  6:05 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   8:09 PM CDT

Tim






Monday, April 21, 2014

April 21, 2014 - Weather report. Seasonable temperatures on Tuesday; Rain mid-late week; Hudson Bay high (Chilly temps) sets up this weekend-next week.

/Issued 2:34 PM CDT, Monday, April 21, 2014/

Looks like were setting up for a chilly end to April and possibly a cool beginning to May.  Here's the 6-10 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center valid April 27-May 1, 2014.

Blue=Cooler than average temperatures
Orange/red=Warmer than average temperatures




















Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

April 13-19, 2014

High temperatures

4/13:  39F/9 degrees below normal
4/14:  30F/19 degrees below normal
4/15:  31F/18 degrees below normal
4/16:  27F/23 degrees below normal
4/17:  36F/14 degrees below normal
4/18:  38F/13 degrees below normal
4/19:  44F/7 degrees below normal

Low temperatures

4/13:  28F/1 degree below normal
4/14:  20F/9 degrees below
4/15:  12F/18 degrees below normal
4/16:  22F/8 degrees below normal
4/17:  21F/10 degrees below normal
4/18:  20F/11 degrees below normal
4/19:  31F/1 degree below normal

Total precipitation:  0.67"
Normal:  0.59"
Departure:  +0.08"

Last week's temperature departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.




















Last week's precipitation departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.





















High temperature report for April 20, 2014
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  66F
International Falls, MN:  62F
Brainerd, MN:  77F
Hibbing, MN:  68F
Ashland, WI:  60F
Hayward, WI:  71F
Two Harbors, MN:  63F
Ely, MN:  61F
Orr, MN:  64F
Cook, MN:  64F
Bigfork, MN:  68F
Grand Rapids, MN:  66F
Longville, MN:  70F
Pine River, MN:  70F
Aitkin, MN:  73F
Moose Lake, MN:  70F
Hinckley, MN:  70F
Cloquet, MN:  66F
McGregor, MN:  70F
Superior, WI:  64F
Siren, WI:  70F
Phillips, WI:  69F
7 NW of Brainerd, MN:  74F
Bruno, MN:  68F
12 N of Isle, MN:  70F
3 E of Wright, MN:  69F
Cass Lake, MN:  72F
Embarrass, MN:  63F
Floodwood, MN:  69F
Kabetogama, MN:  62F
Butternut, WI:  71F
Upson, WI:  67F
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  66F
Winter, WI:  71F

This week is severe weather awareness week in both Minnesota and Wisconsin.  The statewide tornado drill will take place this Thursday, April 24th.  More information can be found at this link.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dlh&storyid=101801&source=0

2000-2013 tornado stats for Minnesota and Wisconsin
Source:  NWS/Storm Prediction Center

Note:  The numbers below represent tornado reports.

Note:  The annual tornado average in Minnesota is 45, and in Wisconsin 24.

2000:

Minnesota:  32 tornadoes
Wisconsin:  18 tornadoes

2001:

Minnesota:  73 tornadoes
Wisconsin:  12 tornadoes

2002:

Minnesota:  34 tornadoes
Wisconsin:  26 tornadoes

2003:

Minnesota:  47 tornadoes
Wisconsin:  14 tornadoes

2004:

Minnesota:  59 tornadoes
Wisconsin:  35 tornadoes

2005:

Minnesota:  71 tornadoes
Wisconsin:  63 tornadoes

2006:

Minnesota:  25 tornadoes
Wisconsin:  11 tornadoes

2007:

Minnesota:  18 tornadoes
Wisconsin:  18 tornadoes

2008:

Minnesota:  42 tornadoes
Wisconsin:  37 tornadoes

2009:

Minnesota:  31 tornadoes
Wisconsin:  19 tornadoes

2010:

Minnesota:  145 tornadoes
Wisconsin:  63 tornadoes

2011:

Minnesota:  30 tornadoes
Wisconsin:  49 tornadoes

2012:

Minnesota:  39 tornadoes
Wisconsin:  3 tornadoes

2013:  

Minnesota:  11 tornadoes
Wisconsin:  15 tornadoes

Here's a pretty cool map showing when on average the first tornado warning is issued by National Weather Service Forecast Office.  (Data is from 1986-2013)

Note:  Here in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin the average date for the 1st tornado warning is June 10th - earlier if you live in Western/Southern parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin.
















Today's Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Low pressure averaging 1008mb was over the Great Lakes late This Afternoon with a cold front tracking through Wisconsin.  Gusty winds and a decent amount of cold air advection is occurring behind this boundary Today with 2 PM 850mb temperatures of 0 to -4C in Northern Minnesota.  High temperatures were still on the mild side though except in Northern Minnesota where low to mid 40s were common Today, elsewhere temperatures climbed into the 50s and 60s, not quite as warm as yesterday, but still nice for late April.  Partly to mostly sunny skies were common Today with winds out of the northwest at 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Tuesday Night (April 21-22)

High pressure will control our weather during this period.  Partly cloudy skies are expected.  Lows Tonight will be in the 20s and 30s.  Highs Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 30s with 20s in the Arrowhead.  Winds will be out of the northwest Tonight and Tomorrow at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts This Evening.  Winds will turn to the east Tomorrow Night at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Wednesday through Friday (April 23-25)

A low pressure system along with an upper level trough will affect the Northland during this period.  Rain chances will increase from SW-NE during Wednesday Afternoon/Night with rain at times into Thursday. Some rain could even linger into Friday depending on how fast this system moves through.  Note: Temperatures may be cold enough to support some freezing rain, sleet, or snow mainly over extreme Northern Minnesota and through the Arrowhead from late Wednesday Night into Thursday but right now this does not look like a major winter weather event for the Northland, but things could change so stay tuned.

High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 40s and 50s with highs Thursday and Friday in the 30s and 40s.  Lows Wednesday Night will range from the 20s and 30s in Northeast Minnesota with 30s and 40s elsewhere.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.

4" or greater snowfall probability forecast valid for Wednesday Night-Thursday.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Green=Moderate risk for at least 4" of snow
Blue=Slight risk for at least 4" of snow















.25" or greater ice accumulation probability forecast for Wednesday Night-Thursday.  Source Weather Prediction Center.

Blue=Slight risk for ice accumulations of at least .25"

















Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(April 26-May 1)

Below average temperatures are forecast during this period with mainly dry weather the way it looks now. A strong area of high pressure will setup to our north which should keep our area quiet, but on the cool side with possible frost/freeze events at night-early Morning hours.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Mostly clear.  Low 29 to 34.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

.Tuesday...  Mostly sunny.  High 50 to 55.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind becoming east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Becoming mostly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

.Wednesday Night...  Rain possible.  Low 33 to 36.

.Thursday...  Rain possible.  High 36 to 39.

.Thursday Night...  Rain possible.  Low 33 to 35.

.Friday...  Considerable cloudiness.  High 37 to 42.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  52
Low:   32

Sunrise Tuesday:  6:08 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   8:06 PM CDT

Tim



Saturday, April 19, 2014

April 19, 2014 - Weather report. Patchy fog possible Tonight; 50s and 60s for Easter Sunday.

/Issued 5:50 PM CDT, Saturday, April 19, 2014/

Today's Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

This Morning saw snow and a mix bag of precipitation across Northeast Minnesota with occasional rain elsewhere.  Snowfall accumulations ranged from 3.0" at Lutsen to 2.8" 5 miles northeast of Tofte.

By This Afternoon areas of rain showers continued to flare up over Northwest Wisconsin while skies turned sunnier over North Central Minnesota.  There was a wide range in temperatures Today with 30s and 40s near Lake Superior to the 50s and 60s elsewhere, in fact the area from Longville to Pine River and Brainerd climbed toward 70 degrees Today.  Winds were out of the south, east, or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (April 19)

An area of low pressure will move into Ontario while a cold front moves east and through most of the Northland by daybreak.  Scattered showers over Northwest Wisconsin should come to an end by late Tonight.  Elsewhere expect partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Patchy fog could develop late Tonight.  Lows will mainly be in the 30s to around 40.  Winds will be out of the south, east, or west at 5 to 15 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night (April 20)

The cold front that moves through our area Tonight will turn into a warm front, and this warm front will move north and toward the Northland during this period while another cold front approaches from the west.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies can be expected Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with a spotty shower or two possible Sunday Night mainly over Northern Minnesota.  Highs will be in the 50s and 60s with cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Lows will be in the 30s and 40s.  Winds will be out of the south, west, or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Monday through Wednesday (April 21-23)

An area of low pressure will pass north/east of the Northland on Monday while a cold front continues on it's eastward journey through Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin through midday Monday.  A spotty shower or two can't be ruled out on Monday, but most of us should remain dry.

High pressure builds into the region from late Monday into Tuesday with dry weather expected.  Low pressure and an upper level trough will move into the Plains on Wednesday with showers possibly moving into the area as a warm and moist advection pattern develops ahead of this system.

High temperatures on Monday will be in the 50s with some spots in the North holding in the 40s while some Southern locales climb into the 60s.  Lows Monday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows in the 30s and 40s.  Highs on Wednesday will be in 40s and 50s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(April 24-29)

Rain is possible on Thursday (24th) as a strong storm system moves through the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes.  Rain might linger into Friday (25th) depending on how fast this storm moves through. Dry weather returns from the 26th-29th the way it looks now.  Near to below average temperatures are expected through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind variable around 10 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 57 to 62 but it may be cooler closer to Lake Superior.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph with onshore winds possible near Lake Superior.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 32 to 37.  Wind east around 10 mph.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 55 to 60.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Wednesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  52
Low:   32

Sunrise Sunday:  6:12 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   8:04 PM CDT

Tim



Friday, April 18, 2014

April 18, 2014 - Weather report. Mixture of precipitation late Tonight-Saturday AM; Warming up on Easter Sunday.

/Issued 3:18 PM CDT, Friday, April 18, 2014/

Purple area=Winter Weather Advisory.  More details below.















Winter weather headlines
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

A winter weather advisory has been issued for parts of Northern and Northeast Minnesota.

Timing:  

Midnight Tonight until Noon CDT Saturday.

Counties included in the advisory:

St. Louis MN
Carlton MN

Some cities included in the advisory:

Crane Lake
Orr
Ely
Hibbing
Virginia
Cotton
Floodwood
Duluth
Wright
Cromwell
Cloquet
Moose Lake

Discussion:

A mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow is forecast to develop after Midnight Tonight with precipitation continuing at times through the day Saturday.  As temperatures warm on Saturday any mixed precipitation should turn over to rain.

Snow and ice accumulations:

2-6" of snow is possible near the International border with 1" or less further south.  Ice accumulations should generally be less than a quarter inch.

Impacts:

The mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow is expected to make roads slippery in a short period of time.

**A winter weather advisory for mixed precipitation means a mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow is expected.  Small accumulations of snow and ice are expected on untreated roads and sidewalks.  Anyone with travel plans should be prepared for slippery roads and reduced visibility.  Slow down when driving and allow extra stopping distance because you may lose control of your vehicle if you try to slow down or stop quickly**

--------------------------

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Timing:


4 AM Saturday until 4 PM Saturday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Cook MN
Lake MN

Some cities included in the advisory:


Grand Portage
Hovland
Grand Marais
Lutsen
Isabella
Finland
Silver Bay
Two Harbors
Whyte
Forest Center

Discussion:

A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is forecast to develop early Saturday Morning with this mix of winter precipitation continuing through most of the day Saturday.

Snow and ice accumulations:

2-6" of snow is possible near the International border with 1" or less further south.  Ice accumulations should generally be less than a quarter inch.  Note:  Ice accumulations could exceed a quarter inch along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Impacts:

The mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow is expected to make roads slippery in a short period of time.

**A winter weather advisory for mixed precipitation means a mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow is expected.  Small accumulations of snow and ice are expected on untreated roads and sidewalks.  Anyone with travel plans should be prepared for slippery roads and reduced visibility.  Slow down when driving and allow extra stopping distance because you may lose control of your vehicle if you try to slow down or stop quickly**

------------------------------

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Timing:


Midnight Tonight until 10 AM CDT Saturday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Koochiching MN
Itasca MN


Some cities included in the advisory:

International Falls
Littlefork
Big Falls
Northome
Bigfork
Togo
Squaw Lake
Deer River
Grand Rapids
Wawina

Discussion:

A mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow is forecast to develop after Midnight Tonight with precipitation continuing at times through the day Saturday.  As temperatures warm on Saturday any mixed precipitation should turn over to rain.

Snow and ice accumulations:

2-6" of snow is possible near the International border with 1" or less further south.  Ice accumulations should generally be less than a quarter inch.

Impacts:

The mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow is expected to make roads slippery in a short period of time.

**A winter weather advisory for mixed precipitation means a mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow is expected.  Small accumulations of snow and ice are expected on untreated roads and sidewalks.  Anyone with travel plans should be prepared for slippery roads and reduced visibility.  Slow down when driving and allow extra stopping distance because you may lose control of your vehicle if you try to slow down or stop quickly**

--------------------------------

Snow depth report for April 18, 2014
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  10"
International Falls, MN:  1"
Cook, MN:  12"
3 E of Orr, MN:  9"
Ashland, WI:  11"
3 S of Ashland, WI:  6"
9 N of Bayfield, WI:  20"
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  16"

Today's Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

High pressure of 1030mb extends from Western Ontario to Wisconsin as of 3 PM with low pressure of 1000-1002mb stretching from Southern Alberta to Wyoming.  Abundant sunshine was the norm Today except in the Southwest portion of the Northland where partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies prevailed.  High temperatures were in the 40s with mid and upper 30s near Lake Superior.  Winds were out of the east at 5 to around 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Saturday Night (April 18-19)

Clouds will increase This Evening as low pressure moves into the Northern Plains.  Ahead of this system a low level jet will increase into the 40-60+ knot range during the night which will result in a good warm and moist advection pattern over the Northland.

Precipitation is forecast to develop by late This Evening in West-Northwest areas with the chance for precipitation increasing farther south/east after Midnight.

The type of precipitation that falls Tonight and Saturday remains tricky.  There will be a lot of warm air moving in at 850mb, but the temperature near the surface could remain cold enough to support sleet and freezing rain from late Tonight through midday Saturday. 

Locations along and N/NE of Highway 2 in Minnesota stand the greatest chance for seeing a wintry mix of precipitation which should switch over to rain from SW-NE on Saturday as surface temperatures rise.

The North Shore, Arrowhead, and higher terrain area adjacent to Lake Superior could possibly pick up a fair amount of ice and or sleet accumulation through midday Saturday as this area will likely stay colder longer thanks to an onshore wind off Lake Superior.

Areas of fog could also develop mainly near Lake Superior Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with mostly cloudy skies for the entire area.

Lows Tonight will be in the 20s and 30s.  Highs Tomorrow will range from the 30s near Lake Superior to the 50s and 60s in Western-Southwest areas.  Lows Tomorrow Night will mainly be in the 30s.

Winds will be out of the south or east Tonight and Saturday at 10 to 25 mph.  Winds Saturday Night will shift more to the west or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Easter Sunday through Tuesday (April 20-22)

Things are looking pretty good on Sunday as high temperatures rise into the 50s and 60s throughout most of the Northland although it will be cooler along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.  Monday also looks pretty nice with highs once again topping out in the 50s and 60s with lows Monday Night in the 30s. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s.  Right now the Sunday-Tuesday period looks mainly dry in our area.  

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(April 23-28)

Near to below average temperatures are forecast through this period.  Low pressure and an upper level trough will move out of the Rockies and into the Plains, Upper Midwest, and Western Great Lakes region from the 23rd-25th...This system looks like it will bring some rain to the Northland during the mid-late portion of next week.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

Event:  *WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DULUTH*
Timing:  Midnight Tonight until Noon CDT Saturday.


.Tonight...  Increasing cloudiness.  Freezing rain, sleet, snow, or rain possible after Midnight.  Low 28 to 33.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Occasional rain.  Drizzle and fog also possible.  Freezing rain, sleet, or snow possible during the Morning.  High 37 to 42.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Considerable cloudiness.  Patchy fog possible.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind becoming west around 10 mph.

.Easter Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 57 to 62 but it may be cooler closer to Lake Superior.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 50 to 55.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  51
Low:  31

Sunrise Saturday:  6:14 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   8:03 PM CDT

Tim

Thursday, April 17, 2014

April 17, 2014 - Weather report. Dry through Friday; Rain/freezing rain late Friday Night-Saturday; Recap of Wednesday's winter storm.

/Issued 3:24 PM CDT, Thursday, April 17, 2014/

A brief break from wintry precipitation during the next 24 hours, but parts of the Northland could see another round of frozen precipitation late Friday Night into Saturday Morning.

The map below shows where there could be some freezing rain and or sleet late Friday Night-Saturday Morning.

Red=Low probability of icy precipitation
Pink=A greater chance for icy precipitation
















Snowfall reports for April 16-17, 2014
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

4 N of Grantsburg, WI (Burnett County)  16.5"
1 S of Solon Springs, WI (Douglas County)  15.0"
8 ESE of Pine City, MN (Pine County)  15.0"
Minong, WI (Washburn County)  15.0"
Ashland, WI (Ashland County)  14.7"

4 S of Bruno, MN (Pine County)  14.6"
2 NW of Mellen, WI (Ashland County)  14.3"
Brook Park, MN (Pine County)  14.0"
Sarona, WI (Washburn County)  14.0"
High Bridge, WI (Ashland County)  14.0"

4 SE of Namekagon, WI (Bayfield County)  13.7"
New Post, WI (Sawyer County)  13.5"
6 NE of Hertel, WI (Burnett County)  13.4"
Finlayson, MN (Pine County)  13.2"
Spooner, WI (Washburn County)  13.0"

5 WSW of Solon Springs, WI (Douglas County)  13.0"
Holyoke, MN (Carlton County)  12.6"
Washburn, WI (Bayfield County)  12.5"
8 WNW of Park Falls, WI (Price County)  12.5"
Drummond, WI (Bayfield County)  12.5"

Webb Lake, WI (Burnett County)  12.5"
Seeley, WI (Sawyer County)  13.0"
5 SE of Superior, WI (Douglas County)  11.8"
Gile, WI (Iron County)  11.5"
Wrenshall, MN (Carlton County)  11.3"

Superior, WI (Douglas County)  11.0"
Upson, WI (Iron County)  10.0"
Oulu, WI (Bayfield County)  10.0"
Poplar, WI (Douglas County)  10.0"
3 W of Phillips, WI (Price County)  10.0"

Mouth Of Brule, WI (Douglas County)  9.0"
Esko, MN (Carlton County)  8.0"
Garrison, MN (Crow Wing County)  8.0"
Lincoln Park, MN (St. Louis County)  8.0"
Cornucopia, WI (Bayfield County)  8.0"

Fond Du Lac, MN (St. Louis County)  8.0"
Moose Lake, MN (Carlton County)  7.8"
Duluth Heights, MN (St. Louis County)  7.7"
West Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  7.6"
Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)  7.5"

5 NW of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  7.2"  NWS total.
Island Lake, MN (St. Louis County)  6.5"
Lutsen, MN (Cook County)  6.5"
Breezy Point, MN (Crow Wing County)  1.5"
Pine River, MN (Cass County)  1.0"

Note:  Here are a few additional snowfall reports from the past 24 hours outside of the Northland.

Isanti, MN:  19.0"
North Branch, MN:  18.0"
Cambridge, MN:  16.0"
Rush City, MN:  15.9"
Little Falls, MN:  13.0"
Rhinelander, WI:  11.0"

Total snowfall map for April 16-17, 2014.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.
















*RECORD EVENT*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

24 hour snowfall record was broken on April 16, 2014 at Duluth, Minnesota.  New record:  6.4"; Previous record:  4.6" set in 1939.

Note:  After Wednesday's snowstorm, 2013-14 is now the 5th snowiest season on record at Duluth, Minnesota with 125.3" of snow.

Here are the top 5 snowiest seasons

1:  135.4" (1995-96)
2:  131.8" (1949-50)
3:  129.4" (2012-13)
4:  128.2" (1996-97)
5:  125.3" (2013-14)

Note:  Although this season has been a snowy one, were still behind last year's amount by 4.1" and we still need 10.1" of snow to tie the all-time record of 135.4"

Today's Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

The last of the snow from this recent winter storm is finally ending as snow continued to taper off This Afternoon over the Arrowhead of Minnesota.  Partly cloudy to sunny skies were common late This Afternoon over the southwest part of the area while mostly cloudy skies prevailed elsewhere.  High temperatures were still colder than where they should be for this time of year with 30s and 40s throughout the Northland with the warmest temperatures found from Longville and Brainerd east to Aitkin and McGregor.  Winds Today were out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (April 17)

Low pressure will be centered to our east with high pressure over Manitoba moving toward the south/east. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with lows in the 20s but a few spots might slip into the teens.  Winds will be out of the north, west, or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday and Friday Night (April 18)

Tomorrow will be dry under partly cloudy skies.  Highs will range from the 30s near Lake Superior to the 40s with winds out of the east at 5 to 15 mph.

Low pressure moves east out of the Northern Rockies Friday Night with a strong low level jet of 50-70 knots developing ahead of this feature which will lead to a decent amount of warm/moist advection later in the night and into Saturday.

Rain should develop late Friday Night as this system moves closer to the Northland.  Low temperatures Tomorrow Night will be in the 20s and 30s with south or east winds at 10 to 20 mph.  Note:  With surface temperatures at or below freezing over Northeast Minnesota the possibility for freezing rain, sleet, and maybe some snow does exist as precipitation develops early Saturday Morning.

0.25" or greater freezing rain probability forecast valid for Friday Night-Saturday.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Blue=Slight risk for ice accumulations of at least 0.25"















4" or greater snowfall accumulation forecast valid for Friday Night-Saturday.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Blue=Slight risk for at least 4" of snow which does include the extreme NE part of Minnesota.

















Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Saturday through Monday (April 19-21)

Low pressure will continue to move through the Upper Midwest on Saturday with rain continuing over parts of the Northland.  The precipitation may be in the form of freezing rain or sleet over Northeastern Minnesota through about midday Saturday.  Areas of fog could also develop on Saturday especially near Lake Superior.

A few showers could persist into Saturday Evening otherwise the rest of Saturday Night and right through Monday looks dry at this time.

Highs on Saturday will range from the 30s near Lake Superior with 40s and 50s elsewhere.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the 30s.  Highs on Easter Sunday are forecast to be in the 40s and 50s with 60s possible in Southern areas.  Cooler temperatures are expected though along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.  Highs on Monday will be in the 40s and 50s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(April 22-27)

Tuesday (22nd) looks dry.  The period from the 23rd-26th could turn wet at times as low pressure and an upper level trough move east out of the Rockies.  This system could bring quite a bit of rain to the Upper Midwest from mid to late next week and there could even be a few thunderstorms as well.  Near to below average temperatures are forecast through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible late.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph becoming east late.

.Friday...  Patchy fog possible early.  Partly cloudy.  High 38 to 43.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night...  Increasing cloudiness.  Rain possible after Midnight.  Some freezing rain or sleet is also possible.  Low 28 to 32.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Rain possible.  Some freezing rain or sleet is also possible early.  Areas of fog and drizzle.  High 33 to 38.

.Saturday Night...  Areas of fog possible.  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 30 to 33.

.Easter Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 50 to 55 but it may be cooler near Lake Superior.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 41 to 46.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  50
Low:   31

Sunrise Friday:  6:16 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   8:01 PM CDT

Tim