Monday, May 2, 2016

May 2, 2016 Weather Report - Gusty west winds and mild on Tuesday with a few showers/t-storms; Around 80 in Duluth on Friday. Future radar for Tuesday included in this post

/Issued 4:41 PM CDT, Monday, May 2, 2016/

An interesting visible satellite image from this afternoon.  Light east wind and stable air keeping skies mainly sunny close to Lake Superior today while puffy cumulus clouds form over inland locations across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
















Future radar for Tuesday.  Source, 12z WRF-NMM; TropicalTidbits.com








































Tuesday's severe weather outlook.  Source, WSI; Storm Prediction Center.

No severe weather in our area tomorrow but a few spotty thunderstorms are possible in far eastern Minnesota through all of Wisconsin (Dark green shaded area on map)

Note:  Occasional lightning, brief gusty winds, brief heavy downpours and possibly some small hail will be the main threats if thunderstorms develop on Tuesday.














Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Tuesday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  May 2, 2016

A beautiful spring day under partly to mostly sunny skies with more sun the closer you were to Lake Superior.  Highs today were in the 60s to around 70 degrees with 40s and 50s near the immediate Lake Superior shoreline due to a light onshore wind.  Winds elsewhere were mainly light and variable in direction at around 10 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (May 2)

A quiet weather night under clear to partly cloudy skies.  A cold front will approach the Borderland area toward daybreak but no rain is expected tonight.  Low temperatures will be in the 40s to lower 50s with winds becoming southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday night (May 3)

Breezy! A cold front will move south/east across the Northland on Tuesday.  Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon across northwest Wisconsin with a few showers or isolated thunderstorms also possible tomorrow in eastern and northeast Minnesota.  The greatest amount of instability is forecast to setup over northwest Wisconsin on Tuesday with CAPE of around 200-500 j/kg along with steepening lapse rates of around 7.0 c/km...This combined with colder temperatures aloft with 500mb temperatures of around -22C should be enough for isolated thunderstorm development with small hail possible as well.

Highs on Tuesday will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees with west, southwest or northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies for Tuesday night with any lingering showers in northwest Wisconsin ending early in the evening.  Lows will be in the 30s and 40s with north or northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

Wednesday through Friday (May 4-6)

Dry on Wednesday with highs in the 50s with 60s in western areas.  Lows Wednesday night will be in the 30s and 40s.

Could be a few showers on Thursday in parts of the Northland thanks to a warm advection pattern with building warmth over the northern Plains spreading east later this week.  Highs on Thursday will range from the 60s and 70s in northern Minnesota with 50s and 60s in northwest Wisconsin with cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Lows Thursday night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Friday is shaping up to be a warm summer-like day with southwesterly winds in place out ahead of a cold front which is forecast to be centered to our west/north.  High temperatures on Friday are expected to be in the 70s with an 80 degree high temperature certainly possible.  It could be cooler though mainly along the North Shore of Lake Superior due to the southwest wind.  Note:  At this time it does appear that Downtown Duluth will also be quite warm on Friday with a southwest wind, but if winds shift to the east then it would turn much cooler.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

(May 7-12)

Near to above average temperatures on the 7th-8th followed by near to below average temperatures from the 9th-12th.  A few showers are possible Friday night-Saturday morning as a cold front moves through the area.  Could be dealing with some more showers at times from the 9th-11th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 42 to 47.  Light and variable wind around 10 mph this evening shifting to the southwest at 10 to 15 mph late.

.Tuesday...  Breezy.  Partly to mostly sunny.  Isolated showers possible during the afternoon.  High 63 to 68.  Wind west at 15 to 25 mph.

.Tuesday night...  Breezy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind north to northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.

.Wednesday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 38 to 43.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 60 to 65.

.Thursday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 48 to 53.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 75 to 80.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  58
Low:   37

Sunrise Tuesday:  5:50 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   8:22 PM CDT

Tim


April 2016 Climate Summary for Duluth, Minnesota: Around 4 degrees colder than last April

April 2016 Climate Summary for Duluth, Minnesota - Airport location

Average temperature:  37.7 degrees
Normal:  39.6 degrees
Departure:  -1.9 degrees below normal

Warmest high temperature:  71 F on the 16th
Warmest low temperature:  51 F on the 16th

Coldest high temperature:  26 F on the 2nd
Coldest low temperature:  2 F on the 9th

9 days with a high temperature of at least 50 F
5 days with a high temperature of at least 60 F
1 day with a high temperature of at least 70 F

5 days with a high temperature of 32 F or below

4 days with a low temperature of 20 F or below
19 days with a low temperature of 32 F or below

Total precipitation:  2.40"
Normal:  2.43"
Departure:  -0.03" below normal

Heaviest daily precipitation total:  1.37" on the 24th

Number of days with at least 0.01" of precipitation:  10
Number of days with at least 0.10" of precipitation:  5
Number of days with at least 0.50" of precipitation:  1
Number of days with at least 1.00" of precipitation:  1

Total snowfall:  9.8"
Normal:  6.9"
Departure:  +2.9" above normal

Heaviest daily snowfall total:  3.3" on the 2nd

Number of days with snow (0.1" or greater accumulation)  9

Number of days with at least 1.0" of snow:  4

Notes:

April 2016 was the first below average temperature month since February 2015 (Over one year ago)

April 2016 temperature departure map.
















April 2016 precipitation departure map.  Generally near to below normal precipitation totals in northeast Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin with an area with above normal precipitation around the Hayward Lakes region.

















April 2015 Climate Summary for Duluth, Minnesota - Airport location

Average temperature:  42.2 degrees
Departure:  +2.6 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  1.03"
Departure:  -1.40" below normal

Total snowfall:  1.2"
Departure:  -5.7" below normal

18 days with a high temperature of at least 50 F
9 days with a high temperature of at least 60 F
2 days with a high temperature of at least 70 F

18 days with a low temperature of 32 F or below

Tim

Sunday, May 1, 2016

May 1, 2016 Weather Report - Dry on Monday; Spotty showers/maybe even a t-storm on Tuesday

/Issued 7:32 PM CDT, Sunday, May 1, 2016/

Looks like a fairly mild week with even warmer temperatures possible late this week.  Image below is from today's GFS model (18z run) valid for this Friday, May 6.  Source, TropicalTidbits.com














Last week's temperature departure map.  Below average temperatures in all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
















Last week's precipitation departure map.  Above average precipitation in most of the Northland with the wettest areas of around +2" above normal centered near the Brainerd Lakes and also in northwest Wisconsin.
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Monday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















April 2016 climate summaries for select cities

Duluth, Minnesota:

Average temperature:  37.7 degrees
Departure:  -1.9 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  2.40"
Departure:  -0.03" below normal

Total snowfall:  9.8"
Departure:  +2.9" above normal

International Falls, Minnesota:

Average temperature:  37.3 degrees
Departure:  -2.0 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  2.11"
Departure:  +0.18" above normal

Total snowfall:  4.9"
Departure:  -1.5" below normal

Twin Cities, Minnesota:

Average temperature:  48.1 degrees
Departure:  +0.6 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  2.84"
Departure:  +0.18" above normal

Total snowfall:  0.5"
Departure:  -1.5" below normal

**3 thunderstorm days**

St. Cloud, Minnesota:

Average temperature:  44.8 degrees
Departure:  +0.2 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  1.74"
Departure:  -0.83" below normal

Total snowfall:  1.6"
Departure:  -1.4" below normal

**2 thunderstorm days**

Eau Claire, Wisconsin:

Average temperature:  45.7 degrees
Departure:  -0.3 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  2.56"
Departure:  -0.19" below normal

Total snowfall:  1.8"
Departure:  -0.1" below normal

**2 thunderstorm days**

Marquette, Michigan:

Average temperature:  33.8 degrees
Departure:  -4.1 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  3.83"
Departure:  +0.82" above normal

Total snowfall:  40.9"
Departure:  +26.4" above normal

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota - Airport location

April 24-30, 2016

High temperatures:

4/24:  41 F/-13 degrees below normal
4/25:  36 F/-18 degrees below normal
4/26:  44 F/-11 degrees below normal
4/27:  45 F/-10 degrees below normal
4/28:  49 F/-7 degrees below normal
4/29:  52 F/-4 degrees below normal
4/30:  50 F/-7 degrees below normal

Low temperatures:

4/24:  35 F/+1 degree above normal
4/25:  32 F/-2 degrees below normal
4/26:  34 F/Normal
4/27:  32 F/-3 degrees below normal
4/28:  31 F/-4 degrees below normal
4/29:  29 F/-7 degrees below normal
4/30:  35 F/-1 degree below normal

Total precipitation:  1.69"
Normal:  0.68"
Departure:  +1.01" above normal

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  May 1, 2016

Not too bad as we begin the month of May.  High pressure remained in control of our weather today.  There were some clouds especially around Lake Superior this morning which gave way to mostly sunny skies this afternoon, elsewhere skies were generally sunny.  High temperatures were in the mid 50s to low 60s with 40s closer to Lake Superior.  Winds were out of the north or east at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (May 1)

Clear to partly cloudy skies with lows in the 30s to around 40 degrees with 20s possible in the traditional cold spots.  Evening winds out of the north or east at 10 to 20 mph turning light and variable at around 10 mph later in the night.

Monday and Monday night (May 2)

Partly to mostly sunny skies on Monday with highs mainly in the 60s with 50s in far northeast Minnesota.  Lows Monday night under partly cloudy skies will mainly be in the 40s.  Winds will be out of the north or west at 5 to 15 mph tomorrow and west or southwest tomorrow night at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tuesday through Thursday (May 3-5)

A cold front is forecast to drop south and through the Northland on Tuesday, this front plus some additional energy moving south out of Ontario Province will combine with colder temperatures aloft, steepening lapse rates and weak instability to produce a few showers in parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Tuesday.  The threat for thunderstorms is fairly low but an isolated storm could develop during the afternoon/evening hours especially in northwest Wisconsin.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees with lows Tuesday night in the 30s and 40s.

Cooler but dry on Wednesday with highs in the 50s to around 60 degrees (Cooler along the South Shore of Lake Superior)  Lows Wednesday night will be in the 30s.

Dry on Thursday with highs in the 50s and 60s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(May 6-11)

Near to above average temperatures are forecast during the long range with the greatest chance for above average temperatures in the 60s and 70s occurring on the 5th-6th the way it looks now.  Could be some showers around the area between the 7th-11th but computer model differences remain quite large during that aforementioned time period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Clear.  Low 32 to 37.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph turning light and variable at around 10 mph after Midnight.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 60 to 65.  Wind becoming west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind west to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 63 to 68.

.Tuesday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 48 to 53.

.Wednesday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 38 to 43.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 58 to 63.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  58
Low:   37

Sunrise Monday:  5:51 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   8:20 PM CDT

Tim

Saturday, April 30, 2016

April 30, 2016 Weather Report - Long range outlook for May in this post; Gusty east winds will finally diminish and shift to the west by Monday in Duluth

/Issued 9:06 PM CDT, Saturday, April 30, 2016/

Average number of tornadoes during the month of May in Minnesota is 6 and in Wisconsin 3 based on 1989-2013 average - See map below.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.













Minnesota storm reports map for 2016 through April 29th.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Red dots=Tornado reports
Green dots=Large hail reports (1.00" or greater in diameter)
Blue dots=Damaging wind reports (58 mph or stronger)

So far this year:  7 severe weather reports.

Large hail:  3 reports
Tornadoes:  2 reports
Damaging wind:  2 reports




















Wisconsin storm reports map for 2016 through April 29th.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Green dots=Large hail reports (1.00" or greater in diameter)
Blue dots=Damaging wind reports (58 mph or stronger)

So far this year:  10 severe weather reports.

Large hail:  9 reports
Damaging wind:  1 report




















U.S. Tornadoes for 2016 - Through April 29th.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Below average number of tornadoes so far this year.

Actual:  346
Normal to date:  492

The most active tornado day so far this year:  February 23rd with 52 tornadoes.













Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Sunday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Here's the outlook for May per CFS model.

Temperature anomaly forecast

Yellow, orange and red colors=Above average temperatures

Blue colors=Below average temperatures

White areas=Near normal temperatures














Precipitation outlook for May.

Yellow=Below average precipitation

Green=Above average precipitation

White areas=Near normal precipitation














May climate averages for Duluth, Minnesota - Airport location

Temperature:  51.4 degrees
Precipitation:  3.23"
Snowfall:  0.4"

Average temperatures for May:

1st)  High:  57 F / Low:  36 F
31st)  High:  67 F/ Low:  45 F

Warmest May on record:  57.4 degrees in 1977
Coldest May on record:  38.8 degrees in 1907

Wettest May on record:  7.99" in 1879
Driest May on record:  0.15" in 1976

Snowiest May on record:  8.1" in 1954

Astronomical data for May:

Sunrise on the 1st:  5:53 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 31st:  5:19 AM CDT

Sunset on the 1st:  8:20 PM CDT
Sunset on the 31st:  8:54 PM CDT

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  April 30, 2016

April ends of a seasonable note as high temperatures topped out in the 50s to lower 60s but cooler 40s were found near Lake Superior.  Sky conditions varied between mostly sunny and partly sunny.  Winds were out of the east or northeast at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Sunday night (April 30-May 1)

High pressure will remain in control of our weather resulting in partly to at times a mostly cloudy sky.  Low temperatures tonight will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees with 20s possible in the traditional cold spots.  Highs Sunday will be in the 50s to lower 60s with 40s near Lake Superior.  Lows Sunday night will be in the 30s to lower 40s.  Winds tonight and Sunday will be out of the north or northeast at 10 to 20 mph.  Winds Sunday night will shift to the west or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

Monday through Wednesday (May 2-4)

We might be dealing with a few spotty showers at times on Monday and Tuesday thanks to some colder air aloft which will drop south into the Northland, this combined with some energy approaching from the north might be enough to trigger a few showers for Monday and Tuesday.  Not looking a lot of instability at the moment but with the cold temps aloft and mid level lapse rates approaching 6.0 c/km a stray thunderstorm can't be ruled out.  Dry weather returns on Wednesday.

High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be in the 60s with low temperatures Monday night and Tuesday night in the 30s and 40s.  Cooler temperatures on Wednesday with highs in the 40s and 50s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(May 5-10)

Near to above average temperatures are expected during the long range with the greatest chance for above average temperatures in the 60s and 70s occurring from the 6th-8th the way it looks now.  Prospects for rain are quite low from May 5-10.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 33 to 38.  Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind becoming west to southwest around 10 mph.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 60 to 65.

.Monday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 62 to 67.

.Tuesday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 48 to 53.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  57
Low:  36

Sunrise Sunday:  5:53 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   8:19 PM CDT

Tim


Friday, April 29, 2016

April 29, 2016 Weather Report - Gusty east wind returns on Saturday; 60s in Duluth on Monday-Tuesday, 70 later next week?

/Issued 5:13 PM CDT, Friday, April 29, 2016/

Another major spring storm hitting the Rockies and southern Plains tonight with snow on one side of the storm and a heavy rain and severe weather threat on the other side.  This storm won't be hitting the Northland.  Source, NWS hazards map.













Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Saturday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Note:  I've decided to create a photography page showcasing some of my work from the past few years.  Here's the link to my portfolio, I'll be adding more pictures to my page so watch for that.   http://www.redbubble.com/people/timothyburr/portfolio

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  April 29, 2016

A nice spring day and the powerful lake wind even subsided at least for a day.  Strong high pressure remained anchored over Ontario Province which brought sunny to partly sunny skies to the Northland today with highs in the 50s to lower 60s with 40s closer to Lake Superior.  Winds were out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Saturday night (April 29-30)

Dry through Saturday night as high pressure stays put over central Canada.  Low pressure will lift northeast out of north Texas but this system will remain well to our south.  Clear to partly cloudy skies tonight and partly to mostly cloudy skies for Saturday.  Low temperatures tonight and Saturday night will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees but 20s are certainly possible in the traditional cold spots.  Highs on Saturday will range from the upper 30s and 40s near Lake Superior to the 50s elsewhere.  Winds will be out of the east or northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph redeveloping near Lake Superior.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Sunday through Tuesday (May 1-3)

High pressure will continue to provide tranquil weather conditions in our area on Sunday and Monday.  Could be dealing with a few showers on Tuesday as an area of low pressure approaches from the northwest.

Highs on Sunday and Monday are expected to be in the 50s and 60s with cooler temperatures continuing near Lake Superior on Sunday but winds are forecast to shift to the west or northwest on Monday which means that milder temperatures will make it to waterfront areas.  Low temperatures Sunday night and Monday night will be in the 30s and 40s.

Highs on Tuesday are forecast to be in the 60s with a few 70s even possible, cooler 50s in far northeast Minnesota.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(May 4-9)

Near to above average temperatures are forecast during the long range.  There is a chance for widespread 60 and 70 degree high temperatures in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin especially from the 5th-7th the way it looks now.  Note:  Of course temperatures may be cooler near Lake Superior depending on what direction the wind is coming out of -- At the moment the computer models are showing a southwesterly wind and that would result in warm temperatures making it to the waterfront but this could change in coming days.  As for rain chances...Not many during the long range.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Clear to partly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Saturday...  Windy.  Partly cloudy.  High 45 to 50 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

.Saturday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 32 to 37.  Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 51 to 56 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Sunday night...  Mostly clear.  Low 35 to 40.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 60 to 65.

.Monday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 62 to 67.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  57
Low:   36

Sunrise Saturday:  5:54 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   8:18 PM CDT

Tim