Saturday, April 25, 2015

April 25, 2015 Weather Report - Abundant sunshine on the way for Sunday

/Issued 7:25 PM CDT, Saturday, April 25, 2015/

Weather Summary for April 25, 2015
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Started the day with quite a bit of cloud cover in the Northland, but skies cleared nicely during the Afternoon hours.  Highs Today were in the 50s with 30s and 40s near Lake Superior.  Winds were out of the east or northeast at 5 to 15 mph with much stronger winds near Lake Superior.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Sunday Night (April 25-26)

High pressure will remain to our north while low pressure and a frontal boundary track slowly into the Northern Plains.  Clear to partly cloudy skies are forecast this period with lows Tonight in the 20s and 30s, highs on Sunday will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees but it will be much cooler closer to Lake Superior, lows Sunday Night will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees.  Winds will remain out of the east at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Monday through Wednesday (April 27-29)

One high exits to our east on Monday while a new high builds in from the north by Wednesday -- In between these highs will see a weak system track through the Upper Midwest on Tuesday with a few showers possible.

Highs from Monday through Wednesday are forecast to be in the 50s and 60s but it will be cooler at times near Lake Superior.  Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will mainly be in the 40s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

(April 30-May 5)

Dry weather is expected on Thursday (30th) and on Saturday (May 2nd)

Slight chance for showers on Friday (May 1st)

A few showers or thunderstorms are possible on the 3rd-4th of May.

Near to above average temperatures are expected from April 30-May 5; Model trends support daytime highs at or above 70 degrees in much of the Northland late this coming week into next weekend.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Clear.  Low 27 to 32.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday...  Mostly sunny.  High 48 to 53 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60 but it may be cooler near Lake Superior.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Tuesday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 60 to 65.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:   55
Low:   34

Sunrise Sunday:  6:02 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:    8:12 PM CDT

Tim

Friday, April 24, 2015

April 24, 2015 Weather Report - Cool temperatures and gusty east winds this weekend

/Issued 5:11 PM CDT, Friday, April 24, 2015/

Weather Summary for April 24, 2015
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A gloomy spring day across the Northland under mostly cloudy skies.  High temperatures were generally in the 40s with mid and upper 30s closer to Lake Superior.  Low pressure centered to our southwest combined with a band of Frontogenesis which setup over parts of the Upper Midwest Today led to an area of rain and wet snow primarily along and south of the Highway 2 corridor.  Winds Today were out of the east at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (April 24)

Mostly cloudy skies should continue in most of the Northland Tonight although there might be some clearing especially in far Northern Minnesota.  There is a chance for a bit of light rain or wet snow generally in Northwest Wisconsin and East Central Minnesota.  Low temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s with east winds at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Saturday and Saturday Night (April 25)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected this period as high pressure remains to our north.  Highs will be in the 40s and 50s with 30s near Lake Superior.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.  Winds will be out of the east or northeast at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

Sunday through Tuesday (April 26-28)

Dry weather is expected on Sunday with highs in the 50s but 30s and 40s will prevail near Lake Superior, lows Sunday Night will mainly be in the 30s.

A low pressure trough will move slowly east out of the Northern Plains on Monday-Tuesday but as this system moves east it will be weakening.  Some showers will be possible across parts of the Northland Monday Night and Tuesday but right now this does not look like a big deal.

High temperatures on Monday are forecast to be in the 50s and perhaps even in the 60s for some but cooler temperatures will continue along the North Shore of Lake Superior, lows Monday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.  Highs on Tuesday will mainly be in the 50s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

(April 29-May 4)

Still a slight chance for a few lingering showers on Wednesday (29th) But again this doesn't look like a major rain event at this time.

There could be some more showers from time to time between April 30th and May 4th -- A few thunderstorms are even possible on May 2nd-3rd the way it looks now.

Near to above average temperatures are forecast during the long range.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

.Saturday...  Breezy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 38 to 43.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 28 to 33.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 45 to 50 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60 but it may be cooler near Lake Superior.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 38 to 43.

.Tuesday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 50 to 55 but it may be cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  54
Low:   34

Sunrise Saturday:  6:04 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   8:10 PM CDT

Tim

Thursday, April 23, 2015

April 23, 2015 Weather Report - Clouds and gusty east winds return on Friday with possible rain or wet snow; Below average temps/lake wind this weekend; 60s and even some 70s could return mid to late next week

/Issued 4:49 PM CDT, Thursday, April 23, 2015/

Low temperature map for April 23, 2015.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.
















Low temperature report for April 23, 2015
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

International Falls, MN:  16F
Hibbing, MN:  19F
Grand Marais, MN (Airport)  18F
Ely, MN:  12F
Crane Lake, MN:  12F
Bigfork, MN:  18F
3 E of Wright, MN:  19F
Embarrass, MN:  10F
Kabetogama, MN:  15F
3 E of Orr, MN:  13F
1 WSW of Saxon, WI:  14F

Weather Summary for April 23, 2015
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A pretty nice day considering how it's been recently.  Skies were generally sunny Today with high temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s which is slightly below average for late April.  Winds were out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph so not as windy as the past few days.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  Low to Medium.

Tonight (April 23)

High pressure will be centered to our north and south/southeast while low pressure stretches from the Northern Rockies to Northern Plains.  Clouds will be on the increase Tonight with some rain or snow possible especially late across Western and Southern parts of the Northland.  Low temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s with winds turning to the east at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday and Friday Night (April 24)

Confidence is on the low side with regards to how far north precipitation will get during this period and also on the precipitation type near Lake Superior.  Short term model guidance -- NAM, RAP (thru 8 AM Friday) and  GFS are quite aggressive on the northward extent of precipitation on Friday while the EURO and CANADIAN keep the bulk of the precip south of the Twin Ports.

With high pressure off to our north will have an easterly wind around that high which tends to advect dry air down the big lake, meanwhile will have a broad area of low pressure well to our west/south which will pump moist air into the Upper Midwest.

Will likely see an area or areas of rain across Western-Southern portions of the Northland on Friday and Friday Night, if the precipitation makes it farther north into the Twin Ports and Highway 2 corridor, then we could be dealing with either rain or wet snow or a mixture of the two with even a chance for some slushy snowfall accumulations by late Friday Night.

Mostly cloudy skies will be found across the area this period with some sun possible in far Northern Minnesota.  High temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Friday Night in the 20s and 30s.  Winds will be out of the east at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Saturday through Monday (April 25-27)

High pressure off to our north and low pressure to our west/south will lead to easterly winds and dry air in the Northland during this period.  Any rain or mixed precipitation over Western-Southern areas should come to an end Saturday Morning with the remainder of this period looking dry at this time.

High temperatures are expected to be in the 40s and 50s from Saturday through Monday but it will be cooler near Lake Superior.  Low temperatures Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the 30s but some spots could fall into the 20s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

(April 28-May 3)

A few showers are possible on Tuesday (28th)  A few more showers could occur sometime around the 1st-3rd of May.  Near to possibly above normal temperatures from the 28th of April through 3rd of May.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Clear but clouds increasing during the night.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind becoming east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Breezy and cooler.  Mostly cloudy.  Light rain or wet snow possible.  High 35 to 40.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph.

.Friday Night...  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  Light rain or wet snow possible.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 38 to 43.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 27 to 32.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 48 to 53.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  54
Low:   34

Sunrise Friday:  6:06 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   8:09 PM CDT

Tim

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

April 22, 2015 Weather Report - Over 8" of snow since Monday at Gile, Wisconsin! Below average temperatures continue but Thursday is looking sunnier compared to the last few days

/Issued 4:26 PM CDT, Wednesday, April 22, 2015/

Rain or no rain?  Some computer models paint a rather wet picture for parts of the Northland for Friday and Saturday while others are much drier.  With high pressure to our north, I'm leaning with those drier model solutions as will have an easterly wind coming off Lake Superior which should advect dry air into all but Western-Southern parts of the Northland.  Will see what happens...

The model image below is from Today's 18z RGEM valid through 1 PM Friday -- Potential for a tenth to possibly half inch of rain west and southwest of the Twin Ports on Friday.  Note:  The air might be cold enough for some wet snow Friday AM depending on how far north the precipitation gets.  Source, TropicalTidbits.com














Note:  *WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY* remains in effect until 9 PM CDT Tonight for Iron County in Northwest Wisconsin including the towns of Hurley...Gile...Upson...and Montreal.  More information at this link:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory

Weather Summary for April 22, 2015
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Chilly temperatures continued Today although skies were sunnier compared to recent days with the most sunshine occurring in Western-Southwest parts of the area while mostly cloudy skies continued in Northeast Minnesota and over most of Northwestern Wisconsin.  Snow showers and flurries affected parts of the area Today with more significant snowfall hitting parts of Iron County in Northwest Wisconsin where 8.5" of snow has fallen since Monday at Gile, Wisconsin.  Winds Today were out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.  Note:  Not much has changed in the overall weather pattern as low pressure continues to sit and spin over Eastern Canada while an upper level trough lingered over the Great Lakes and Eastern Canada.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (April 22)

High pressure builds southeast out of Manitoba with low pressure and an upper level trough remaining to our north/east.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with more flurries and snow showers primarily along the South Shore of Lake Superior.  Low temperatures will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees with some spots possibly dropping into the teens.  Winds remain out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts during the Evening.

Thursday and Thursday Night (April 23)

An area of low pressure will track into the Northern Rockies and Western High Plains region during this period with high pressure to our north and southeast.  Sky conditions should range from sunny to partly sunny on Thursday with partly to mostly cloudy skies Thursday Night.  There could be some rain that moves into Western-Southern areas late Thursday Night otherwise this period is looking dry.  High temperatures Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s and 30s.  Northwest winds Thursday and Thursday Evening at 10 to 20 mph switching to the east late Thursday Night.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

Friday through Sunday (April 24-26)

High pressure to our north and low pressure to our west/south during the Friday-Sunday time frame.  There is a chance for some rain in parts of the Northland on Friday, right now the Western-Southern areas stand the greatest chance at getting some rain on Friday.  Saturday and Sunday look generally dry at this time.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the 30s and 40s on Friday with 40s and 50s Saturday and Sunday but it will be cooler near Lake Superior.  Low temperatures Friday Night will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Saturday Night mainly in the 30s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

(April 27-May 2)

Below to near normal temperatures are expected from April 27-May 2.  Shower chances on Monday-Tuesday (27th-28th) Otherwise the long range is looking pretty dry at the moment.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Mostly sunny.  High 43 to 48.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 28 to 33.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph becoming east late.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 38 to 43.

.Friday Night...  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 30 to 35.

.Saturday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 40 to 45 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 40 to 45 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  53
Low:   33

Sunrise Thursday:  6:07 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   8:08 PM CDT

Tim


Tuesday, April 21, 2015

April 21, 2015 Weather Report - Chilly! Gusty winds continue; Skiffs of snow Tonight; Fire Weather Watch for parts of the Northland on Wednesday. Pics/vids from Today; Snowfall report; and U.S. severe weather stats included in this post

/Issued 3:59 PM CDT, Tuesday, April 21, 2015/

Weather setup for this afternoon, April 21, 2015.  Just think a week ago Today it was 67 degrees in Duluth, and just a few days ago we were in the low 70s! Pretty drastic change this week, but quite typical for this area.  Source, college of dupage website















Upper Midwest radar loop ending at 4:15 PM CDT.  Source, WSI.

Blue=Snow
Green=Rain













More snow for Tonight with a few inches of additional accumulation possible along the South Shore of Lake Superior mainly in Ashland and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin.  Less than an inch of snow elsewhere.  Source, 1 PM (18z) RAP model.



















Note:  Here's a short video I took of a heavier snow/graupel shower that passed through Duluth Today, April 21, 2015. 

video















A few pictures I took Today, April 21, 2015 -- Duluth, Minnesota.  Snow showers/graupel reducing visibility at times.














































U.S. severe weather stats through April 20.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.  Note:  Running below average in the number of tornado and wind reports while hail reports are pretty close to average through the 20th of April.

Tornadoes:  154
Normal to date (2005-2014)  383














Hail reports:  1,266
Normal to date (2005-2014)  1,263














Wind reports:  1,031
Normal to date (2005-2014)  1,817















Snowfall report for April 20-21, 2015
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

14 W of Isabella, MN (Lake County)  4.0"
3 E of Hawthorne, WI (Douglas County)  3.3"
Gile, WI (Iron County)  3.0"
International Falls, MN (Koochiching County)  2.1"
Embarrass, MN (St. Louis County)  2.0"
2 S of Tower, MN (St. Louis County)  2.0"
Cornucopia, WI (Bayfield County)  2.0"
Park Falls, WI (Price County)  1.5"
Kabetogama, MN (St. Louis County)  1.5"
Ely, MN (St. Louis County)  1.5"

Cass Lake, MN (Cass County)  1.0"
5 NW of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  0.9" -- NWS total

24 hour snowfall map ending the morning of April 21, 2015.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.
















Weather Summary for April 21, 2015
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A cold and blustery spring day in the Northland.  Deep low pressure of 988mb was over Northern Ontario with high pressure of 1018mb over Southern Saskatchewan as of 4 PM Today.  N/NW flow continued Today between the low to our northeast and high to our northwest, the result was another chilly day with highs only in the 30s along with a 15-30 mph wind out of the northwest.  Conditions were also very favorable for brief but locally heavy snow showers and ice pellets (Graupel) in the Northland Today.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (April 21)

High pressure slides south/southeast into the Northern Plains Tonight while low pressure stays put over Northern Ontario.  Mostly cloudy skies will persist Tonight with snow showers and flurries.  Lows will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees with northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (April 22)

High pressure will pass south of Minnesota this period while low pressure continues to sit and spin over Ontario.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected during this period with a chance for more flurries and snow showers on Wednesday.  Highs will be in the 30s and 40s with lows mainly in the 20s.  Winds remain out of the northwest at 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts possible.

Note:  *Fire Weather Watch* for Wednesday Afternoon through Wednesday Evening for Southern Cass, Crow Wing, Southern Aitkin, and Pine Counties in Minnesota.  Click this link for more info:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=fire%20weather%20watch

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

Thursday through Saturday (April 23-25)

Dry on Thursday with highs in the 30s and 40s with lows Thursday Night in the 20s and 30s.  Seeing some model differences for Friday and Saturday as low pressure sets up from the Northern Rockies to the Central Plains -- A few models bring some rain into parts of the Northland late Friday and Saturday while others keep the rain to our west and south.  Stay tuned!  

Highs on Friday and Saturday are forecast to be in the 40s with a few 50s possible as well but it will be cooler near Lake Superior.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 30s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(April 26-May 1)

Still keeping an eye on Sunday-Monday (26th-27th) for possible rain but right now it looks like most of this would remain to our west and south.  Another system could impact the Northland sometime around the 30th with some rain showers.  Below to near average temperatures are forecast from the 26th-1st.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Breezy with snow showers and flurries.  Graupel also possible during the Evening.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 27 to 32.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Wednesday...  Breezy.  Considerable cloudiness.  Flurries possible.  High 37 to 42.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 40 to 45.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Friday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 40 to 45 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Saturday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 40 to 45 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  52
Low:   32

Sunrise Wednesday:  6:09 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   8:06 PM CDT

Tim