Sunday, August 31, 2014

August 31, 2014 Weather Report - Rain and t-storms at times Tonight; A little nicer on Labor Day; Storms could return by midweek.

/Issued 3:50 PM CDT, Sunday, August 31, 2014/

There is slight risk for excessive rain totals for Tonight in the green outline area on the map, this includes Northwest Wisconsin and far Eastern Minnesota.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

























Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, MN - Airport location

August 24-30, 2014

High temperatures:

8/24:  73F/Normal
8/25:  76F/3 degrees above normal
8/26:  69F/4 degrees below normal
8/27:  72F/Normal
8/28:  72F/Normal
8/29:  65F/7 degrees below normal
8/30:  68F/3 degrees below normal

Low temperatures:

8/24:  64F/11 degrees above normal
8/25:  57F/4 degrees above normal
8/26:  50F/3 degrees below normal
8/27:  48F/5 degrees below normal
8/28:  52F/1 degree below normal
8/29:  60F/8 degrees above normal
8/30:  60F/8 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  1.02"
Normal:  0.87"
Departure:  +0.15"



Last week's temperature departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.























Last week's precipitation departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.




























September climate averages for Duluth, Minnesota

Temperature:  55.6 degrees
Precipitation:  4.11"
Snow:  0.1"

Sunrise on the 1st:  6:28 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 30th:  7:05 AM CDT

Sunset on the 1st:  7:48 PM CDT
Sunset on the 30th:  6:52 PM CDT

Weather Summary for August 31, 2014
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

We end the month on kind of a gloomy note as clouds were fairly widespread across the area Today with some sunny breaks occurring from time to time.  There's been an area of showers which have been moving northeast across Eastern Minnesota and far Northwest Wisconsin This Afternoon but nothing that has been significant as of yet.  Highs Today were in the 60s and 70s with east winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (August 31)

An area of low pressure will track into the Upper Midwest and Ontario with a warm front and cold front moving through the area as well.  Expect showers and thunderstorms at times Tonight with locally heavy rain possible along with a few severe thunderstorms which will be capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts.  Note:  The main area for possible heavy rain/severe weather appears to be setting up over Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as these areas have the greatest amount of instability as of late Afternoon.  Clouds further north is resulting in less warming and lower instability values which should reduce the chance for severe weather.  Low temperatures Tonight will be in the 50s and 60s with east, south, or west winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Labor Day and Night (September 1)

Low pressure along with its cold front will shift north/east and away from the Northland this period.  Showers might linger Tomorrow Morning over Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast Minnesota otherwise this period looks mainly dry, but far Western areas could see a late day or Evening shower or thunderstorm.  Highs Tomorrow will be mainly in the 70s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 50s.  Winds will be out of the west, northwest or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tuesday through Thursday (September 2-4)

A few showers or thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday mainly over Northern Minnesota.  A threat for showers and thunderstorms returns area-wide for Wednesday and Thursday as a low pressure system along with a warm front and cold front head northeast out of the Western High Plains/Northern Plains.  Note:  Severe weather and or heavy rain is a possibility with this midweek system based on current model data.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s on Tuesday with 70s and even some 80s possible on Wednesday.  Highs Thursday will mainly be in the 70s.  Lows Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night are expected to be in the 50s and 60s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(September 5-10)

Below average temperatures are forecast from the 5th-7th with mainly dry weather the way it looks now.  Temperatures look like they will trend closer to average levels then from the 8th-10th and this is when some wet weather might return to the Northland.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy with rain possible at times.  A few thunderstorms and patchy fog.  Low 57 to 62.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph shifting to the west toward daybreak.

.Labor Day...  Showers possible during the Morning, mostly cloudy with some clearing developing.  High 69 to 74.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind west to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 58 to 63.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 72 to 77.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 60 to 65.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 70 to 75.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  71
Low:   52

Sunrise Monday:  6:28 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   7:48 PM CDT

Tim

August 31, 2014 - Weather Update; Heavy rain and a few severe t-storms possible later Today and Tonight.

/Issued 11:41 AM CDT, Sunday, August 31, 2014/

Here's the upper level wind map valid for late This Afternoon per 12z NAM/WRF model.  Two cores of stronger winds aloft, one to our W-NW, the other well to our SW should aid in convective development east of these wind maxes Today and Tonight.  Source, COD website.
























...Showers and thunderstorms at times through Monday Morning across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin...

Low pressure of 1002mb stretches from Southern Manitoba to Eastern North Dakota as of late Morning with a warm front extending from West Central to Southern Minnesota with a cold front over Eastern South Dakota.  This system along with its 30-60 meter 12 hour H5 height falls will be moving east into the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes region through Tonight. 

Lift associated with the low, fronts, and an approaching mid/upper level trough will likely result in occasional showers and thunderstorms throughout the Northland from This Afternoon and Evening - through the Overnight hours before precipitation diminishes from west to east Monday Morning.

There is a threat for a few severe thunderstorms especially from late This Afternoon into This Evening with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the primary hazards.

CAPE is forecast to be in the 1000-2000 j/kg range with Lifted Indices ranging from -2 to -7C.  Winds in the mid levels of the atmosphere will be in the 30-40 knot range with 0-6 KM Bulk Shear and Effective Bulk Shear values of around 30-40 knots.  Strong winds aloft off to our west will put our area in a favorable region for shower/thunderstorm development later Today.  Note:  The entire Northland is in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms through Tonight per Storm Prediction Center.

Heavy rain will also be possible across parts of the area with abundant moisture flowing into the area out ahead of this Northern Plains system.  There is potential for 1-2"+ rain totals by Monday Morning especially across Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota.  Localized flooding could develop by Tonight.

Keep an eye to the sky and be prepared to move indoors should threatening weather approach your area.  Remember when thunder roars move indoors.

Watches or warnings could be issued for some parts of the Northland by later Today.

Tim

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

August 27, 2014 Weather Report

/Issued 11:32 AM CDT Wednesday August 27, 2014/

The weather isn't looking too bad across the Northland This Afternoon as we continue to see a mix of sun and clouds along with mainly light winds at under 15mph.  Temperatures should be in the 60s and 70s and will cool off into the 40s and 50s Tonight under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Computer models continue to disagree for Thursday and early Friday as low pressure tracks northeast or east-northeast out of Iowa.  Rain associated with this system should affect parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin, but how far north will the rain get is handled differently by the models.

The 12z GFS came in farther north with rain up to Duluth, North Shore, much of East Central Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Thursday PM thru Friday AM.

12z NAM has shifted its rain axis farther south now and generally hits parts of NW Wisconsin with the Twin Ports staying dry. The 00z European model is fairly similar to the 12z NAM, although the EURO brings the rain a little further north by late Thursday Night. Will see what happens...

Highs Thursday are forecast to be in the 60s and 70s with lows Thursday Night in the 40s and 50s.

A cold front approaches the Northland from the NW Friday Afternoon and Night.  This system might produce a few showers and thunderstorms across mainly North Central and East Central parts of Minnesota late in the day on Friday.  Thunderstorms that do develop are not expected to be severe.

A stronger system is forecast to move through the Upper Midwest late this weekend.  Its still a few days away, but right now the computer models show sufficient amounts of moisture, instability, and favorable winds in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere that would suggest the possibility for some severe thunderstorms on Sunday.  At the moment it looks like Western, Central, and Southern Minnesota would be most at risk from severe weather, but this could change in coming days.

Have a wonderful day.

Tim

Friday, August 22, 2014

August 22, 2014 Weather Report - Fog, drizzle, cool east winds; Severe thunderstorms possible on Sunday.

/Issued 4:04 PM CDT, Friday, August 22, 2014/

There's a risk for a few severe thunderstorms over the Northland on Sunday, with this being a few days away things could change but right now the computer models are showing a pretty favorable setup for severe weather.

The image below is the 250mb wind forecast for late Sunday Afternoon.  An area of strong winds aloft ranging from 60-80+ knots to our northwest (Black circled area on the map)  This would help in producing a risk for strong/severe convection to the east-southeast of the strong upper level winds.  Of course other ingredients will need to be in place in order to get severe weather on Sunday, by no means is this set in stone.  Source, 18z NAM, COD website.





















2nd day in a row that I'm seeing impressive numbers for supercell thunderstorm development for late Sunday Afternoon.  The orange, red, and pinkish colors are values of 4-10, usually a value around 1-2 is what you need for supercells - so yeah these values are rather high.  Again though this doesn't mean will get severe weather on Sunday.  It's only one models take on how things might play out late this weekend.  Source, 18z NAM, COD website.


























A slight risk for severe thunderstorms for Saturday and Saturday Night (Green area on the map)  The risk area is roughly along and west of a line from Bemidji to Brainerd.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.
























Weather Summary for August 22, 2014
Location:  NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Same old weather - different day.  Most of the Northland continued to be socked in with low clouds along with areas of fog and drizzle, but there has been some sunshine peeking out from time to time across Western sections of the area.  High temperatures Today were in the 70s with 60s near Lake Superior.  Winds were out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (August 22)

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms might occur in two spots Tonight, one would be over far Northern Minnesota, the other in Eastern parts of Northwest Wisconsin, otherwise for Tonight expect mostly cloudy skies with areas of fog and drizzle once again.  Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with east winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night (August 23)

Low pressure will be organizing across the Western High Plains and Northern Plains during this period with a warm front lifting N-NE into Western/Southern areas of Minnesota.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms should start to impact the Northland by Saturday Night, but before then it looks mainly dry. 

High temperatures on Saturday will be in the 70s to around 80 degrees with 60s near Lake Superior.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the 60s to around 70 with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Winds during this period will be out of the east or southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Sunday through Tuesday (August 24-26)

***Severe thunderstorms possible on Sunday***

The computer models are coming into better agreement, but with that said there remains a possibility that things could change a bit between now and Sunday.

An area of low pressure is forecast to pass well to the northwest of our area on Sunday while a secondary low heads northeast through Minnesota.  A warm front and cold front will both be impacting the Northland from Sunday through early Monday.

There's little doubt that will have plenty of moisture and instability to fuel thunderstorms on Sunday with dew points expected to range from 65-75 degrees with CAPE in the 1500-3000 j/kg range, and those values might end up even higher depending on the amount of sunshine we see on Sunday.

Should have enough shear in place with about 30-35 knots of 0-6 KM and EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.  Mid level winds although kind of marginal most of the day should increase by late Sunday Afternoon-Evening with possibly 30-40 knot H5 winds spreading across our area from SW-NE.  Upper level winds are forecast to be quite strong with an area of 60-80 knot winds off to our NW.  Wind direction is also forecast to be changing with height on Sunday with SE flow near the surface turning southerly at 850mb and SW at 500mb.

This all looks good on paper, but again will just have to wait and see how things setup once Sunday gets here.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Sunday and Sunday Night with locally heavy rain and a threat for some severe thunderstorms.  At this point all modes of severe weather could occur including large hail, strong winds, and isolated tornadoes.

Quiet weather returns on Monday as low pressure moves into Ontario while a cold front exits to our east.  Some showers might affect Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Tuesday with dry weather over Northern Minnesota.

High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 70s and 80s with cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Highs on Monday will range from the 60s in Northern Minnesota with 70s and lower 80s elsewhere.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 60s and 70s.  Low temperatures Sunday Night will be in the 60s to around 70.  Lows Monday Night will mainly be in the 50s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(August 27-September 1)

27th-29th is looking mainly dry at this time with showers or thunderstorms possible from the 30th-September 1.  Temperatures are forecast to be near or below average on the 27th-28th and near to above average from the 29th-1st.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Areas of fog and drizzle.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 57 to 62.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Considerable cloudiness.  Areas of fog and drizzle.  High 64 to 69.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Areas of fog and drizzle.  Showers or thunderstorms possible late.  Low 57 to 62.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.  High 69 to 74.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  Low 58 to 63.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 72 to 77.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 52 to 57.

.Tuesday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 68 to 73.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  73
Low:   54

Sunrise Saturday:  6:17 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   8:05 PM CDT

Tim



Thursday, August 21, 2014

August 21, 2014 Weather Report - Clouds, fog/drizzle, A cool breeze out of the east.

/Issued 4:54 PM CDT, Thursday, August 21, 2014/

Here's a 12 hour satellite loop showing last night's thunderstorm complex (MCS) which rolled southeast through Central/Southern Minnesota and Wisconsin.  Source, Unisys.com
























Weather Summary for August 21, 2014
Location:  NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Well Today's forecast went pretty much as planned.  Warm front didn't get anywhere close to the Northland so we were cool and gray with some fog and drizzle especially near Lake Superior.  All the warm, juicy weather is over Southern Minnesota and this is where heavier rain/thunderstorms occurred early This Morning with some redevelopment late This Afternoon.  High temperatures over our area were in the 60s to lower 70s with easterly winds at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (August 21)

Mostly cloudy skies with areas of fog and drizzle will persist Tonight.  Low pressure along with a warm front over Southern Minnesota will track east during the night.  This system might generate scattered showers over the area Tonight with isolated thunderstorms possible as well mainly from East Central Minnesota through Northwestern Wisconsin.  I don't think will have any severe weather this far north Tonight as the greatest instability remains well to our south and shows no sign of pushing north.  Low temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s with east or northeast winds at 5 to around 20 mph.

Friday and Friday Night (August 22)

A warm front remains well to our south with another boundary to our northwest during this period.  A few showers or thunderstorms are possible Tomorrow into Tomorrow Evening but I think most of us will stay dry.  High temperatures on Friday will be in the 70s and 80s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.  East or northeast winds will continue this period at 5 to around 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Saturday through Monday (August 23-25)

Low pressure will lift into the Northern Plains and eventually into Ontario during this period.  Warm front which will stay well to our south through Saturday might push farther north on Sunday while a cold front heads east into the Upper Midwest. 

Dry weather is expected during the day Saturday with showers or thunderstorms possible from Saturday Night through early Monday with dry weather returning for most of the day Monday.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible over the weekend, and there may even be some threat for severe thunderstorms at some point Saturday or Sunday but still seeing quite a bit of model differences on the timing of the trough/low/fronts, so stay tuned.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s and 80s from Saturday through Monday with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior over the weekend.  Lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(August 26-31)

It now looks like temperatures will stay pretty close to average during this period.  Most of the below average stuff stays north of the border next week if you can trust what the long range computer models are showing.  Chance for showers on the 26th-27th, and again from the 29th-31st.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Overcast.  Some drizzle and fog.  Showers possible.  Low 56 to 61.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday...  Considerable cloudiness.  Possible fog, drizzle, and showers.  High 65 to 70.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Considerable cloudiness.  High 65 to 70.

.Saturday Night...  Showers possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 57 to 62.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 68 to 73.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 58 to 63.

.Monday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  74
Low:   54

Sunrise Friday:  6:15 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   8:07 PM CDT

Tim