Wednesday, January 28, 2015

January 28, 2015 Weather Update - Freezing Rain Advisory until 6 AM Thursday

/Issued 7:44 PM CST, Wednesday, January 28, 2015/

















The National Weather Service in Duluth has expanded the Freezing Rain Advisory to include all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through 6 AM CST Thursday.  Freezing drizzle is expected Tonight leading to icy roads and hazardous driving and walking conditions.  Ice accumulations will remain less than one tenth of an inch.  Note:  Pink area on the map above is a freezing rain advisory per NWS hazards map.

More information can be found at this link:  
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=freezing%20rain%20advisory

Minnesota road conditions:  http://hb.511mn.org/#roadReports/layers=allReports,roadReports,winterDriving,weatherWarnings,otherStates

Wisconsin road conditions:
http://www.511wi.gov/web/traffic/map.aspx?type=winterRoads#1

Tim

January 28, 2015 Weather Report - Freezing rain advisory for parts of NW Wisconsin

/Issued 4:16 PM CST, Wednesday, January 28, 2015/

Freezing Rain Advisory for Tonight in the area shaded in pink in northwest Wisconsin.  Source, NWS hazards map.  More information can be found at this link:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=freezing%20rain%20advisory


















Winter 2014-15 snowfall totals/departure from normal thru January 27
Source:  National Weather Service

Note:  Winter is the period from December 1-February 28

Duluth, Minnesota

Total:  15.2"
Departure:  -19.9"

International Falls, Minnesota

Total:  30.3"
Departure:  +1.9"

Twin Cities, Minnesota

Total:  11.0"
Departure:  -11.7"

St. Cloud, Minnesota

Total:  5.0"
Departure:  -12.1"

Grand Forks, North Dakota

Total:  7.8"
Departure:  -12.3"

Eau Claire, Wisconsin

Total:  12.7"
Departure:  -8.4"

Green Bay, Wisconsin

Total:  12.3"
Departure:  -12.1"

Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Total:  12.6"
Departure:  -10.9"

Madison, Wisconsin

Total:  8.9"
Departure:  -15.8"

Chicago, Illinois

Total:  12.5"
Departure:  -5.3"

Des Moines, Iowa

Total:  8.4"
Departure:  -7.9"

Note:  Every city on this list except for International Falls has had below average snowfall so far this winter.  Duluth's average winter snowfall is 49.5"; we need 34.3" of additional snow by the end of February to get to the average.  Highly unlikely this happens.

Outside of the Rockies and around the Great Lakes there really isn't much snow cover as we get closer to the end of January.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.
















Weather Summary for January 28, 2015
Location:  northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1004mb was over far northwest Missouri late This Afternoon with a weaker surface low averaging 1010mb over far northwest Minnesota.  A cold front was moving into western Minnesota as of 4 PM.  Sky conditions ranged from partly to mostly cloudy in northwest Wisconsin while generally overcast conditions prevailed in northeast Minnesota.  Patchy freezing drizzle and drizzle along with some haze was also common Today over parts of the area.  High temperatures were in the mid 20s to low 30s with south or southeast winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (January 28)

A cold front passes through the Northland Tonight while low pressure exits to our east later in the night.  Expect some freezing drizzle and snow showers around the area Tonight under mostly cloudy skies.  Precipitation will remain on the light side Tonight, but it only takes a small amount of ice accumulation to cause difficult driving conditions, so if you have travel plans Tonight use caution as patchy freezing drizzle could make roads slick and hazardous in spots.  Low temperatures will be in the teens and 20s as winds shift to the northwest at 10 to 25 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night (January 29)

High pressure builds into the Upper Midwest this period.  Partly cloudy skies are expected with highs Tomorrow in the teens and 20s, lows Tomorrow Night will range from the single digits below to around 10 above zero.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 25 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Friday through Sunday (January 30-February 1)

A very minor snow event is possible from Friday PM into early Saturday otherwise this period looks dry.  Arctic air should move in on Sunday, before then generally near to slightly above average temperatures.  Highs on Friday and Saturday will be in the teens and 20s with highs on Sunday in the single digits.  Lows Friday Night will be in the single digits and teens with lows Saturday Night ranging from the teens below to single digits above zero.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(February 2-7)

Below average temperatures are forecast from the 2nd-7th.  Little to no snow.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy freezing drizzle.  Flurries and light snow showers also possible.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind south to southeast around 10 mph becoming northwest at 15 to 25 mph after Midnight.

.Thursday...  Breezy.  Partly cloudy.  High 25 to 30 early with slowly falling temperatures.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 0 to 5.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible late.  High 15 to 20.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 5 to 10.

.Saturday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible early.  High 15 to 20.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 5 to 10.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  20
Low:     2

Sunrise Thursday:  7:37 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   5:07 PM CST

Tim




Tuesday, January 27, 2015

January 27, 2015 Weather Report - Still mild!

/Issued 3:58 PM CST, Tuesday, January 27, 2015/

Incredible warmth Today over the central and southern Plains with widespread 70s and even some 80s from Nebraska south to Texas as a massive upper level ridge (warm dome)  expands north into the Plains.  Meanwhile out east, cold!  A major Nor'easter churns north/northeast while a strong upper level trough takes hold behind this powerful winter storm.  The image below is the water vapor satellite from 3:15 PM CT with temperatures from late This Afternoon.  Source, College of Dupage website.

















If you want snow head north into Ontario on Wednesday.  Could see several inches of fresh snow Tomorrow for our friends who live in Ontario.  Not much snow with this next system here in the Northland...Maybe a dusting at best.  Source, 18z RGEM; tropicaltidbits.com

















Weather Summary for January 27, 2015
Location:  northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

High pressure of 1024-1026mb extended from the Great Lakes to eastern Hudson Bay Canada with low pressure of 1010mb covering the northern Rockies/western High Plains.  Mild temperatures continued Today under mostly cloudy skies although western-northwest parts of the area have seen more sun compared to areas farther southeast.  Highs were in the upper 20s to middle 30s with winds out of the south at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (January 27)

Low pressure heads into the northern Plains while high pressure remains off to our east.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies should continue across the area Tonight.  There has been some precipitation showing up on radar This Afternoon in northern Minnesota but none of that has been reaching the ground.  The majority of us will remain dry Tonight but there is a possibility for patchy flurries or freezing drizzle mainly in far northern Minnesota.  Low temperatures will be in the 20s with south or southeast winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (January 28)

Dual lows -- one to the north and one to the south will both track east while a cold front swings NW-SE through the region.  Significant amounts of snow is expected this period north of the border in parts of Ontario while here in the Northland we see some patchy drizzle, freezing drizzle, and snow showers with very minor snow accumulations.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Wednesday Night in the teens and 20s.  South or east winds Tomorrow will turn northwest Tomorrow Night.  Wind speeds will range from 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Thursday through Saturday (January 29-31)

A very minor snow event is possible sometime Friday or Saturday, other than that we stay generally dry and quiet.  Highs in the teens and 20s from Thursday-Saturday which is near to still slightly warmer than average for late January.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the single digits below to teens above zero.  Lows Friday Night will be in the single digits and teens.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(February 1-6)

A new month begins but the weather stays the same, well not exactly the same.  No snow, but colder weather does return.  The entire period from the 1st-6th looks like it will feature below average temperatures, so enjoy if you like the colder temperatures.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 23 to 27.  Wind south to southeast around 10 mph.

.Wednesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle possible.  High 27 to 32.  Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy freezing drizzle possible.  Flurries and a few snow showers.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 23 to 28.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 0 to 5.

.Friday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 15 to 20.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 10 to 15.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  20
Low:     2

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:38 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   5:05 PM CST

Tim

Monday, January 26, 2015

January 26, 2015 Weather Report - Snowfall totals from Today's clipper in this post; Mild temps continue

/Issued 3:40 PM CST, Monday, January 26, 2015/

Water vapor satellite image, plus temperatures as of 4 PM CST.  The big weather story the next few days will be the Nor'easter which is spinning off-shore from North and South Carolina Today...The yellow line on the map represents the expected storm track.  Meanwhile, a weak low near Duluth drops SE Tonight.  Source, College of Dupage website.


















Snowfall report for January 26, 2015
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

2 NE of Lutsen, MN (Cook County)  3.5"
Snow Bank Lake, MN (Lake County)  3.3"
25 E of Ely, MN (Lake County)  3.3"
2 SSW of Kabetogama, MN (St. Louis County)  2.8"
14 W of Isabella, MN (Lake County)  2.5"
Silver Bay, MN (Lake County)  2.3"

Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)  2.2"
Ely, MN (St. Louis County)  2.1"
9 NNE of Hayward, WI (Sawyer County)  1.8"
International Falls, MN (Koochiching County)  1.8"
Eveleth, MN (St. Louis County)  1.5"
5 NW of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  1.3" Official NWS total
Solon Springs, WI (Douglas County)  1.0"

Weather Summary for January 26, 2015
Location:  northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure which brought the fresh blanket of snow to parts of the Northland This Morning was still lingering over northeast Minnesota as of 3 PM with a surface pressure at 1008mb.  Scattered snow showers and patchy freezing drizzle continued This Afternoon in parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  There was quite a range in temperatures Today with 30s and even a few lower 40s showing up west of the low track -- along a Bigfork to Hinckley line...East of that corridor, highs were generally in the mid 20s to low 30s.  Winds Today were out of the south or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (January 26)

Low pressure pushes off to the southeast Tonight while high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with scattered snow showers and patchy freezing drizzle especially during the Evening hours.  Low temperatures will range from around zero to 20 above.  Winds will be out of or shift out of the north at 5 to 15 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (January 27)

High pressure moves off to the southeast while low pressure moves into the northern Plains and western High Plains.  Partly to mostly cloudy sky conditions should continue this period.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Tomorrow Night mainly in the 20s.  Southerly winds lock in this period at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Wednesday through Friday (January 28-30)

A cold front will push southeast through the area from Wednesday-early Thursday while low pressure passes south of Minnesota.  There is a possibility for some drizzle, freezing drizzle, and snow showers from Wednesday into early Thursday but this does not look like a real big deal at this time with very light ice accumulations possible and just minor amounts of snow.  Dry weather returns Thursday through Friday.

The warmest temperatures during this period will be on Wednesday with highs in the 20s and 30s.  Highs for Thursday and Friday are expected to be in the teens and 20s.  Lows Wednesday Night will be in the teens and 20s.  Lows Thursday Night will range from around 10 below to 10 above.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(January 31-February 5)

A very minor snow event possible on Saturday (31st) otherwise the rest of this period looks fairly quiet around here.  Below average temperatures are expected from January 31-February 2, after that perhaps near to below average temperatures.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered snow showers and possibly some freezing drizzle mainly early.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind north around 10 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 27 to 32.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 30 to 35,

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 15 to 20.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  High 23 to 28.

.Thursday Night...  Becoming partly cloudy.  Low 0 to 5.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 15 to 20.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  20
Low:     2

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:39 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   5:04 PM CST

Tim

Sunday, January 25, 2015

January 25, 2015 Weather Report - Few inches of snow on the way

/Issued 3:57 PM CST, Sunday, January 25, 2015/

Total snowfall accumulation forecast for Tonight and Monday.  Travel may be a bit hazardous for the Monday Morning commute.














Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota - Airport location

January 18-24, 2015

High temperatures:

1/18:  32F/13 degrees above normal
1/19:  25F/6 degrees above normal
1/20:  25F/6 degrees above normal
1/21:  27F/8 degrees above normal
1/22:  28F/9 degrees above normal
1/23:  40F/21 degrees above normal
1/24:  37F/18 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

1/18:  16F/15 degrees above normal
1/19:  18F/17 degrees above normal
1/20:  23F/22 degrees above normal
1/21:  20F/19 degrees above normal
1/22:  16F/15 degrees above normal
1/23:  28F/27 degrees above normal
1/24:  21F/20 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.01"
Normal:  0.20"
Departure:  -0.19" below normal

Last week's temperature departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.





















Last week's precipitation departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.























Note:  The month of January is now running above normal in the temperature department at Duluth, Minnesota.  As of January 24, we were +0.7 degrees warmer than average -- this surplus will likely increase in coming days as warm temperatures continue.  

Check this out!  This was the temperature departure map for the period January 1-15.  Significant deficits (Blues and greens=Below average)  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.





















Fast forward another few days after the 15th, and the temperature deficits are disappearing rapidly.  The orange colors represent above average monthly temperatures for the month ending on the 24th.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.























Weather Summary for January 25, 2015
Location:  northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

High pressure of 1020mb was centered near Thunder Bay Ontario late This Afternoon.  Low pressure center of 1004mb was over southeast Illinois with a 1004mb low over eastern Saskatchewan.  Mostly cloudy skies were found in far northern Minnesota and also near Lake Superior while partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies occurred elsewhere.  Lake effect snow showers and flurries did occur Today near Lake Superior but accumulations were very light.  Highs Today were chillier compared to previous days with teens and 20s covering the Northland.  Winds were out of the east or south at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (January 25)

A clipper system approaches from the northwest.  Low pressure heads out of Saskatchewan and is forecast to move into northern Minnesota by daybreak.  Snow associated with this system will spread NW-SE across the Northland later Tonight.  Mostly cloudy skies will continue with lows in the teens and 20s with single digits below to single digits above zero possible in the Arrowhead and also in parts of northwest Wisconsin.  Note:  Scattered lake effect snow showers should persist Tonight along the North Shore of Lake Superior but only minor accumulations are expected.  Winds Tonight will be out of the south or southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

Monday and Monday Night (January 26)

Low pressure tracks southeast out of northern Minnesota during this period.  Light snow and flurries will linger most of Monday although the better chance for accumulating snow should occur before Noon.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies can be expected Monday Night.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Monday Night mainly in the 20s.  Winds on Monday will be out of the southwest or west-northwest with northwest winds Monday Night.  Wind speeds will be in the 10 to 25 mph range.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tuesday through Thursday (January 27-29)

Dry weather is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday.  There could be some light snow or flurries from Wednesday Evening into Thursday but no big storms through midweek, nothing new there.  Highs are forecast to be in the 20s and 30s Tuesday and Wednesday and mainly in the 20s on Thursday.  Note:  There is a chance that a few southern locales hit 40 degrees on Wednesday.  Lows Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night will be in the 20s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(January 30-February 4)

Looking at a pretty good chance for below average temperatures from the 30th-4th as arctic air builds in Canada which eventually dips south into the U.S. later this week.  A minor snow event is possible sometime around the 30th-31st, otherwise this period looks fairly quiet.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered flurries This Evening with snow developing between 1-3 AM.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind becoming south at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Snow early with lingering snow showers and flurries throughout the day.  Total snowfall accumulations of around 2" possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Warmer.  High 29 to 34.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 25 to 29.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 29 to 34.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 21 to 26.

.Wednesday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 31 to 36.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 20 to 25.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  19
Low:     1

Sunrise Monday:  7:40 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   5:03 PM CST

Tim