Monday, October 20, 2014

October 20, 2014 Weather Report - Cool lake breezes ahead on Tuesday; T-storm potential midweek; Possible 70 degree high temps on Friday

/Issued 3:21 PM CDT, Monday, October 20, 2014/

Current model data supports a risk of at least a few isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday across portions of Minnesota as elevated CAPE (MUCAPE) increases to a couple hundred joules.  Source, 18z WRF/NAM per COD website.






















Weather Tidbits:

*41 tornadoes have been confirmed from the October 13-14 outbreak which affected 10 states.  1 fatality was also reported.  Source, @wxjerdman @drgregforbes (Twitter)

*September 2014 was the warmest on record and was the 4th hot temperature record of 2014.  Note:  2014 will likely break the hottest year mark.  May, June, August, and September was the hottest on record this year.  Source, @borenbears (Twitter)

*1995, 1997, 1998, 2005, and 2010 all broke NOAA records for the hottest years since records started being kept in 1880.  Source, @borenbears (Twitter)

*Earth hasn't set a monthly record for cold since December 1916 - but all monthly heat records have been set after 1997.  Source, @borenbears (Twitter)

Weather Summary for October 20, 2014
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

The Northland was split in half Today with plenty of sunshine along and southwest of a line from Bemidji to McGrath to Pine City while overcast skies prevailed elsewhere.  Low pressure of 1008mb was over Lake Huron late This Afternoon with high pressure of 1018-1020mb stretching from eastern South Dakota to western Ontario.  High temperatures were in the 40s and 50s Today with winds from the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (October 20)

An area of high pressure will pass through the area Tonight resulting in partly to mostly cloudy skies across the Northland.  Low temperatures will be in the 30s to lower 40s.  Winds will shift from the north/northwest to the east at 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (October 21)

High pressure will track into eastern Canada this period.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are in the forecast with highs on Tuesday in the 40s and 50s.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 30s but a few spots could drop into the 20s.  Winds will be out of the east at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Wednesday through Friday (October 22-24)

There is a chance for some showers in our area from Wednesday PM into Thursday as low pressure along with a warm front and cold front pass through the area.  Note:  A few thunderstorms are even possible Wednesday Afternoon/Night as elevated CAPE increases to around 100-500 j/kg.  Dry weather should return Thursday PM through Friday.

High temperatures on Wednesday are forecast to be in the 50s with 40s along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  50s and 60s are expected on Thursday with 40s once again along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Friday could be a real warm day if things set up how the models show they will Today, daytime highs should be in the 60s over most of the area, and there is even a chance that a few spots reach the low 70s!  Low temperatures Wednesday Night and Thursday Night should mainly be in the 40s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(October 25-30)

Above average temperatures on the 25th-26th with near to possibly below average temperatures returning from the 27th-30th.  A low pressure system could bring some rain to the area Sunday/Monday (26th-27th) Isolated thunderstorms are also possible once again on Sunday the way it looks now.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph becoming east.

.Tuesday...  Considerable cloudiness.  High 44 to 49.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 33 to 38.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low 44 to 47.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 50 to 55.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 65 to 70.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  50
Low:   34

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:35 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   6:11 PM CDT

Tim




Sunday, October 19, 2014

October 19, 2014 Weather Report - Cooler (Near average temps ahead on Monday) Midweek shower chances; Late week still looks mild

/Issued 5:44 PM CDT, Sunday, October 19, 2014/

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota - Airport location

October 12-18, 2014

High temperatures:

10/12:  61F/8 degrees above normal
10/13:  51F/2 degrees below normal
10/14:  64F/11 degrees above normal
10/15:  58F/6 degrees above normal
10/16:  56F/4 degrees above normal
10/17:  50F/1 degree below normal
10/18:  49F/2 degrees below normal

Low temperatures:

10/12:  40F/4 degrees above normal
10/13:  47F/11 degrees above normal
10/14:  36F/Normal
10/15:  32F/3 degrees below normal
10/16:  42F/7 degrees above normal
10/17:  41F/6 degrees above normal
10/18:  34F/Normal

Total precipitation:  0.66"
Normal:  0.65"
Departure:  +0.01"

Last week's temperature departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.





















Last week's precipitation departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.

























Weather Summary for October 19, 2014
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A very nice autumn day as high temperatures soared into the 60s over all but far northeast Minnesota and far eastern portions of northwest Wisconsin where 40s and 50s prevailed Today.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies were found over the Northland Today as low pressure of 1008mb passes through Ontario.  Winds Today were out of the southwest, west, or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Monday Night (October 19-20)

Low pressure exits to our east during this period with high pressure building into the Upper Midwest behind a cold front which will pass through the area Tonight.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies for Tonight and Monday and partly cloudy skies for Monday Night.  There's a possibility for a shower or two late Tonight and on Monday mainly over far northeast Minnesota and in northwest Wisconsin but this shouldn't be a big deal.  Low temperatures Tonight will be in the 40s with highs on Monday in the 40s and 50s, so yes for most areas it will be cooler on Monday compared to Today but still not too bad for the time of year.  Lows Monday Night will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees.  Winds will shift to the north or northwest Tonight and stay in that direction on Monday before swinging around to the east Monday Night.  Wind speeds will range from 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tuesday through Thursday (October 21-23)

Dry on Tuesday and most of Wednesday before a chance for showers enters the forecast for Wednesday PM-Thursday.

High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the 50s to around 60.  Highs on Thursday should mainly be in the 50s.  Lows Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(October 24-29)

Above average temperatures are expected from the 24th-27th with a cooling trend possible toward the 28th-29th.  Note:  Pretty good chance for widespread 60+ degree high temps across most of the Northland on Friday (24th) and possibly during the weekend (25th-26th)  Some rain is possible during the 27th-29th time frame as a potential storm takes aim at the Upper Midwest.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Low 41 to 46.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday...  Cooler.  Mostly cloudy with some sunny breaks at times.  High 49 to 54.  Wind northwest to north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 34 to 39.  Wind becoming east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Considerable cloudiness.  High 45 to 50.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible late.  Low 40 to 45.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 51 to 56.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  50
Low:   34

Sunrise Monday:  7:33 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   6:12 PM CDT

Tim


Saturday, October 18, 2014

October 18, 2014 Weather Report - Warmer and breezy weather on the way for Sunday, some locales in the Northland could top out around 60!

/Issued 5:21 PM CDT, Saturday, October 18, 2014/

Visible satellite image from late This Morning.  A cool northerly wind blowing over the warmer waters of Lake Superior generated widespread lake clouds along with lake effect rain showers - and in some areas the precipitation was either in the form of snow, or a mixture of snow and rain earlier This Morning.  Source, COD website.






















Weather Summary for October 18, 2014
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A ridge of high pressure averaging 1022mb was lined up central Ontario to southern Kansas with low pressure of 1004mb in western Saskatchewan.  Today started out with quite a bit of cloud cover with areas of rain and even some snow along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin, sunshine broke out though from west-east by the Afternoon hours.  Highs Today were in the mid 40s to low 50s so fairly close to average for the time of year.  Winds were out of the north, northwest, or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (October 18)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies can be expected in our area Tonight as high pressure slides off to our east while low pressure approaches from the northwest.  Lows will be in the 30s to lower 40s but a few 20s can't be ruled out mainly over the Arrowhead and interior portions of northwest Wisconsin.  Winds will be out of the south at 5 to 15 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night (October 19)

An area of low pressure will pass north/east of our area this period.  A warm front and cold front attached to this surface low will sweep through the Northland bringing with it a possibility for a few showers mainly over far northern Minnesota and Arrowhead region.  Highs on Sunday will be in the 50s and 60s - so quite a bit warmer than what it looked like a few days ago, this is thanks to a more northerly track to the low which will bring a mild westerly flow into the area on Sunday.  Lows Sunday Night will mainly be in the 40s.  Winds on Sunday will be out of the southwest of west at 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts possible.  Winds Sunday Night will be out of the west or northwest at 10 to 25 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Monday through Wednesday (October 20-22)

Looks mainly dry this period, however, on Monday Morning there could be a few showers in parts of the area but this shouldn't be a real big deal.  High temperatures are expected to top out in the 40s and 50s on Monday and Tuesday and in the 50s to near 60 degrees on Wednesday.  Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will mainly be in the 30s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(October 23-28)

Above average temperatures appear likely through this period.  The long range computer models continue to show a mild-warm weather pattern for our area with daytime highs possibly exceeding 60 or even 65 degrees on a few days during the 23rd-28th time frame - those above mentioned forecasted high temperatures would be 10 to nearly 20 degrees warmer than normal for late October.  A bit of rain is possible on Thursday (23rd) otherwise this forecast period looks kind of dry at the moment.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 34 to 39.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Breezy and milder.  Mostly cloudy with Afternoon clearing.  A shower is possible during the Morning.  High 57 to 62.  Wind becoming southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 33 to 38.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 47 to 52.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  50
Low:   34

Sunrise Sunday:  7:32 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   6:14 PM CDT

Tim




Friday, October 17, 2014

October 17, 2014 Weather Report - Clouds linger Tonight with some showers east of the Twin Ports; A cool fall day ahead on Saturday

/Issued 4:07 PM CDT, Friday, October 17, 2014/

The rain event early This Morning was confined to north central areas of Minnesota and parts of northwest Wisconsin.  The greatest amounts were concentrated over Duluth and Superior and points west and east a little ways.  Text reports below.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.





















Rainfall report for October 16-17, 2014
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  0.52"
Ashland, WI:  0.11"
3 E of Wright, MN:  0.51"
4 E of Island Lake, MN:  0.13"
Willow River, MN:  0.36"
Floodwood, MN:  0.35"
Grand Rapids, MN:  0.22"

Weather Summary for October 17, 2014
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 990mb was over eastern Canada This Afternoon while high pressure of 1026mb builds southeast out of western Manitoba.  The Northland saw quite a bit of cloud cover Today with a few brief peeks of sun here and there.  Some rain has been affecting far Northeast Minnesota with a few showers over portions of Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs Today were in the 40s and 50s with north or northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (October 17)

High pressure builds into the Upper Midwest Tonight - expect partly to mostly cloudy skies in our area with showers lingering This Evening over far northeast Minnesota while a few showers might persist through the night along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin.  Low temperatures will be in the 30s with a few spotty 20s not out of the question in northern Minnesota if skies clear soon enough.  North winds Tonight at 10 to 20 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night (October 18)

Dry weather is expected this period under partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Highs will mainly be in the 40s but a few locales out by the Brainerd Lakes could top out around 50.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.  Winds on Saturday will be from the north or northwest at 10 to 15 mph.  Winds Saturday Night swing around to a southerly direction at 5 to 15 mph.  The wind shift to the south will occur as high pressure pushes off to our east while low pressure approaches from Saskatchewan.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Sunday through Tuesday (October 19-21)

A few showers will be possible on Sunday as low pressure along with a warm front and cold front move through the area.  Dry weather returns Sunday Night through Tuesday the way it looks now.  High temps on Sunday should reach the 40s and 50s, might even be some 60s mainly in western-southwest portions of the Northland.  Highs for Monday and Tuesday should mainly be in the 50s.  Lows Sunday Night and Monday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(October 22-27)

Near to above average temperatures through this period with the possibility for a period of significant warmth during the 24th-26th time frame, something to keep an eye on during the next several days.  Rain chances around the 23rd otherwise it looks pretty dry.

Still seeing a pretty warm signal showing up in the long range computer models - the image below is the 12z EUROPEAN model valid for next Saturday, October 25, 2014.  This map shows the 850mb temperatures as well as the pattern in the mid levels of the atmosphere I.E 500mb.  Widespread orange and even some red colors (black circled area on the map) This should translate to some mild-warm temperatures here at the surface late next week.  All the cold air, blue colors on the map confined to far northern Canada.  Of course with it being a week away things could obviously change between now and next Saturday so stay tuned.




















5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy with some clearing possible during the night.  Low 33 to 38.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Saturday...  Some sun.  High 40 to 45.  Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 28 to 33.  Wind becoming south around 10 mph.

.Sunday...  Considerable cloudiness.  Showers possible.  High 45 to 50.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 33 to 38.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 48 to 53.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  51
Low:   35

Sunrise Saturday:  7:31 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   6:16 PM CDT

Tim


Thursday, October 16, 2014

October 16, 2014 Weather Report - Showers late Tonight and Friday with gusty northwest winds on Friday. Fall climate stats included in this post

/Issued 3:30 PM CDT, Thursday, October 16, 2014/

Strong area of low pressure over the Red River Valley is helping to touch off a few mid October thunderstorms over far NW Minnesota and far NE North Dakota This Afternoon.  Warm southerly winds ahead of this storm Today, cooler northwest winds behind the low.  Source, COD website - visible satellite image from 3 PM Today.




















GR3 radar image from late This Afternoon showing the spotty storms and showers that are developing between Grand Forks and Bemidji.



















Here's a map showing where lightning strikes were occurring at 2:40 PM CDT Today.




























First half of October (1-15) climate stats for Duluth, Minnesota - Airport location

Average temperature:  44.9 degrees
Departure:  -1.5 degrees

2 days with a high temperature of at least 60 degrees
3 days with a high temperature colder than 50 degrees

5 days with a low temperature of 32 degrees or colder

Total precipitation:  1.03"
Departure:  -0.52"


October 1-15, 2014 temperature departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.

























October 1-15, 2014 precipitation departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.



























Fall 2014 is off to a dry start in Duluth, stats below

September 1-October 15 precipitation total:  2.67"
Average:  5.66"
Departure:  -2.99"

Note:  Last fall we had 4.40" of precipitation from September 1-October 15.

The annual precipitation total remains above average however in Duluth with 27.62" of precipitation since January 1 which is 1.26" above the average of 26.36".  Note, last year we had 25.99" of precipitation through October 15,

Weather Summary for October 16, 2014
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Most of us had an awesome fall day under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with high temperatures in the mid 60s with Aitkin topping out at 70!  There was an exception though and this was near Lake Superior where low clouds and fog have been common Today and this has kept temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s but this is actually pretty close to average temperatures for mid October.  Winds Today were out of the south or east at 10 to 20 mph.

Temperature snap shot from 4 PM Today per RAP model.  Feels like summer Today in the Plains.  Source, COD website.


























Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (October 16)

A strong area of low pressure averaging 998mb was over extreme northwest Minnesota late This Afternoon.  This low will track east-southeast Tonight while dragging a cold front along with it.  This system will likely produce some rain showers over the Northland Tonight under mostly cloudy skies.  Areas of fog and drizzle will also linger near Lake Superior, and some of the fog could be dense.  Low temperatures Tonight will mainly be in the 40s as winds start out from the south or east and become north/west during the night at 10-20 mph with higher gusts possible.

Friday and Friday Night (October 17)

Low pressure will exit to our east while an upper level trough digs SSE into the region.  A few showers are possible in the area Tomorrow with the focus for any remaining shower activity shifting to the South Shore of Lake Superior Tomorrow Night as the remainder of the area stays dry.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are on tap this period with highs on Friday in the 40s and 50s with lows Friday Night in the 30s.  Winds will be out of the northwest or north at 10 to 25 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Saturday through Monday (October 18-20)

Saturday and Monday look dry; Sunday could feature some showers as a system drops southeast out of Manitoba.  High temperatures will be in the upper 30s and 40s on Saturday with 40s and 50s ahead for Sunday and Monday.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the 40s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(October 21-26)

Near to above average temperatures are forecast through this period.  Some showers are possible toward the 23rd-25th time frame.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Areas of fog.  Considerable cloudiness.  Showers developing after Midnight.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph shifting to the north late.

.Friday...  Showers possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.  Wind north to northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 33 to 38.

.Saturday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 28 to 33.

.Sunday...  A few showers possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 45 to 50.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  52
Low:   35

Sunrise Friday:  7:29 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   6:18 PM CDT

Tim