Sunday, December 21, 2014

December 21, 2014 - Evening weather update; Winter Weather Advisory issued until 10 AM Monday for parts of the Northland

/Issued 8:47 PM CST, Sunday, December 21, 2014/

Upper Midwest radar loop ending at 8:30 PM CST.  Source WSI.

Blue=Snow
Green=Rain
Pink=Mixed precipitation/Ice















Winter Weather Advisory issued for the Iron Range and Arrowhead in northeast Minnesota until 10 AM CST Monday:  More information at this link http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory

NWS hazards map.  Purple=Winter Weather Advisory.


















Short term model guidance does show some precipitation affecting the Northland the rest of Tonight and through at least Monday Morning.  Mid Evening surface temperatures are very mild and are running in the low to mid 30s with dew points pretty similar to the surface temp, so there really isn't much of an opportunity for the surface temperature to drop since the dew points are so high, and this won't change through Monday.

Precipitation types should be in the form of wet snow and freezing drizzle for areas away from Lake Superior including the higher terrain, Arrowhead, and Iron Range areas...Snowfall accumulations of 1" to as much as 3" are possible for those areas by midday Monday.

Precipitation types closer to Lake Superior and in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin will likely switch back and fourth from wet snow to drizzle and light rain with a sloppy half inch to 1" of snow accumulation possible by midday Monday.

Areas of fog will also be found across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin the rest of Tonight and Monday, some of this fog could be dense.

A quick look at the 00z NAM (newest model run) looks crappy if you want snow in northeast Minnesota on Tuesday.  This model keeps the bulk of the snow in northern Wisconsin where several inches of accumulation could occur on Tuesday with just minor snow amounts in northeast Minnesota.  Note:  The NAM has a tendency of being very poor past 24 hours so will see what future runs do with the Tuesday event.  By the way, the 21z SREF snowfall plume still shows a solid 6" of snow in Duluth by Tuesday Night with most of that coming on Tuesday.  So we are still seeing pretty large differences just in those two models -- SREF and NAM.

Tim


December 21, 2014 Weather Report - Updated storm track; Snowfall map in this post. Thaw continues into midweek; Sloppy the next few days; Winter Storm Watch for the Arrowhead

/Issued 4:06 PM CST, Sunday, December 21, 2014/

Here's what I'm expecting in terms of total snowfall accumulation through Tuesday Night.  Warm air already in place will make this a heavy wet slushy type snow; will also have some rain and drizzle mixed in at times especially Tonight and on Monday.  Use caution if you have travel plans the next few days as there will be hazardous driving conditions at times in parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.












The area in blue on the map below is under a winter storm watch from late Monday Night through late Tuesday Night per National Weather Service.  More information can be found at this link:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20storm%20watch


















Updated storm track through Tuesday Night.  Note:  This low might dig a little more south into Nebraska and Iowa on Monday, but the net result should be about the same for the Northland.




















Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota - Airport location

December 14-20, 2014

High temperatures:

12/14:  41F/19 degrees above normal
12/15:  43F/21 degrees above normal
12/16:  27F/5 degrees above normal
12/17:  20F/2 degrees below normal
12/18:  25F/4 degrees above normal
12/19:  25F/4 degrees above normal
12/20:  30F/9 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

12/14:  37F/29 degrees above normal
12/15:  27F/20 degrees above normal
12/16:  14F/7 degrees above normal
12/17:  10F/3 degrees above normal
12/18:  17F/11 degrees above normal
12/19:  20F/14 degrees above normal
12/20:  25F/19 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.69"
Normal:  0.25"
Departure:  +0.44"

An absolute blow torch last week - temperature departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.




















Last week's precipitation departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.
























Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota - Airport location

*Talk about a turnaround!  November had a temperature deficit of -7.0 degrees, but so far this month were running +6.3 degrees warmer than normal.  Note:  December will likely end up being an above average temperature month even with the cooler temperatures that are coming later this week.

*5 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 32F compared to just 1 day with a subzero low temperature.  Last December saw 23 days with a subzero low temperature and 5 days with a subzero high temperature and 5 days with a high temperature of at least 32F.  Major difference this December compared to last December.

Weather Summary for December 21, 2014
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A gloomy but warm late December day as low pressure of 994mb over southwest Saskatchewan helps to maintain a mild southerly flow over the Upper Midwest.  High temperatures Today were in the low to mid 30s under overcast skies, winds were out of the south or southeast at 5 to 15 mph.  

A nice looking disturbance per water vapor satellite imagery is churning east/northeast through the area Today, this feature has led to some wet snow, freezing drizzle, and drizzle Today with areas of fog also common.  Note:  Snowfall totals of up to 3" have been reported Today in and around the Hayward, WI area with other spots in northwest Wisconsin likely picking up an inch or so of slushy snow with Today's disturbance.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (December 21)

Low pressure heads southeast through the northern Plains Tonight.  Expect some precipitation in the Northland Tonight with wet snow, freezing drizzle, and light rain along with some fog.  Snowfall accumulations of 1-3" are possible Tonight in the Arrowhead of Minnesota and in parts of northwest Wisconsin, elsewhere snow totals should remain less than 1".  Temperatures won't budge much through the night with lows in the 30s.  South or southeast winds will continue at 5 to 15 mph.

Monday and Monday Night (December 22)

Low pressure is forecast to track out of the northern Plains into Iowa during this period.  On Monday expect fog, drizzle, light rain and wet snow across the Northland with generally light amounts of precipitation.  Monday Night will feature a continued risk for fog and drizzle along with more wet snow.  The precipitation by Monday Night may become a little heavier compared to what will see during the day Tomorrow.  Temperatures will hold in the 30s this period with easterly winds at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts possible especially near Lake Superior.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tuesday through Thursday (December 23-25)

Low pressure tracks across Wisconsin on Tuesday.  Wet snow will be possible over the Northland as this system passes south/east of the area.  Lingering flurries and snow showers could occur Christmas Eve and Christmas Day as a deepening area of low pressure sets up in eastern Canada resulting in a cyclonic flow across the Upper Midwest.

High temperatures will be in the 30s on Tuesday and Wednesday with 20s expected on Thursday.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Wednesday Night in the teens and 20s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(December 26-31)

Near normal temperatures are expected on the 26th otherwise a period of below average temperatures are possible from the 27th-31st.  No big storms are showing up in the long range, but a weak system or two may give parts of the Northland a little bit of snow; one would be on the 26th, another one possibly around the 29th-30th time frame.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Cloudy.  Fog, drizzle, and freezing drizzle.  Wet snow or a mix of snow and rain at times.  Snow accumulations less than 1".  Low 30 to 33.  Wind east to southeast around 10 mph.

.Monday...  Cloudy.  Fog and drizzle.  Wet snow and rain at times.  Snow accumulations less than 1".  High 33 to 36.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday Night...  Fog and drizzle.  Wet snow possible at times.  Low 30 to 33.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday...  Wet snow.  High 30 to 33.

.Tuesday Night...  Light snow and flurries.  Total snowfall accumulations from Monday through Tuesday of 2-4" possible.  Low 25 to 30.

.Christmas Eve...  Flurries.  High 30 to 35.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Christmas Day...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  20
Low:    5

Sunrise Monday:  7:51 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   4:23 PM CST

Tim


Saturday, December 20, 2014

December 20, 2014 - Monday and Tuesday snow update

/Issued 5:22 PM CST, Saturday, December 20, 2014/

4" or greater snowfall probability forecast valid 6 PM Sunday through 6 PM Monday.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Blue=Slight risk for at least 4" of snow
Green=Moderate risk for at least 4" of snow


















4" or greater snowfall probability forecast valid 6 PM Monday through 6 PM Tuesday.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Blue=Slight risk for at least 4" of snow
Green=Moderate risk for at least 4" of snow



















Quick update on Monday-Tuesday's snow potential

Model guidance continues to support a snow event in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin as low pressure drops southeast out of the northern Plains, through Iowa or southern Minnesota, and then into Wisconsin from Sunday Night through Tuesday.

Snow is possible across the Northland from late Sunday Night through Tuesday as this area of low pressure moves through.  There should be some breaks in the snow from time to time, so I don't think will have continuous snow from Sunday Night through Tuesday.

In general, I'm thinking much of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin should get between 1-4" of snow with this system.  East-southeast winds coming off Lake Superior could lead to lake enhanced snow along the North Shore of Lake Superior on Monday, possibly into Tuesday depending on where the surface low is by that time...Snow totals along the North Shore could approach or exceed 6" thanks to the potential of lake enhanced snowfall.

Temperatures aloft will be cold enough to support snow, but surface temperatures will be on the mild side during this event with 30-35 degree temperatures expected on Monday and Tuesday.  There will be a chance for drizzle or freezing drizzle during times where the snow lets up.  Also, the snow that does fall should be of the wet variety with the warm air in place.

Note:  As for the Christmas storm.  It still looks like this system will be too far south/east of the Northland to give us a significant amount of snow snow from Wednesday into Thursday, but lingering flurries and snow showers are certainly possible during that time but amounts would likely be very light.

Stay tuned for more updates.

Tim

Friday, December 19, 2014

December 19, 2014 Weather Report - Snow showers and patchy freezing drizzle this weekend; Snow event possible Monday and Tuesday

/Issued 4:14 PM CST, Friday, December 19, 2014/

Snow depth map for Minnesota as of December 18, 2014.  Source, MNDNR.

Anywhere from 2-8" of snow on the ground in northeast Minnesota, much of the rest of the state has 2" or less.























7-day precipitation forecast valid through December 26, 2014.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Most of Minnesota and Wisconsin could see a quarter to half inch of precipitation through late next week.  The precip that falls in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin should be in the form of snow, so if these precip amounts shown on the map verify, then we could be talking about several inches of new snow by this time next week here in the Northland.


















Snow depth report as of December 19, 2014
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  4"
International Falls, MN:  2"
7 NW of Brainerd, MN:  1"
12 N of Isle, MN:  2"
Cass Lake, MN:  1"
Togo, MN:  2"
Embarrass, MN:  3"
Floodwood, MN:  2"
4 E of Island Lake, MN:  5"
Kabetogama, MN:  3"
2 S of Tower, MN:  4"
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  3"
Gordon, WI:  1"

Weather Summary for December 19, 2014
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1006mb was over southern Alberta with high pressure of 1026mb off to our east.  Skies were mostly cloudy Today with areas of snow showers and patchy freezing drizzle.  High temperatures were in the 20s and winds were out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Saturday Night (December 19-20)

Low pressure will be centered to our west with a persistent warm air advection pattern occurring ahead of this system across the Upper Midwest.  This setup will lead to generally overcast skies with occasional light snow and flurries.  Patchy fog and freezing drizzle will also be possible.  Note:  Snowfall accumulations through Saturday Night should be around 1" or less,  but the Arrowhead and higher terrain of the North Shore of Lake Superior could see up to 2" of new snow during this period. Low temperatures Tonight and Saturday Night will be in the 20s with highs on Saturday in the 20s and 30s.  Winds from Tonight through Saturday Night will be out of the south or southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

Sunday through Tuesday (December 21-23)

Low pressure is forecast to move into the northern Plains and is expected to pass through southern Minnesota or Iowa before moving into Wisconsin from Sunday through Tuesday.  This system is expected to bring some snow to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with at least a few inches of snow expected across the entire area.  Note:  A significant amount of snow could fall along the North Shore of Lake Superior where an east/southeast flow crossing Lake Superior may lead to enhanced snowfall; winds may become more east/northeast on Tuesday which could shift this lake enhanced snow threat to the head of Lake Superior.

High temperatures will mainly be in the 30s on Sunday and Monday and in the 20s and 30s on Tuesday.  Lows Sunday Night and Monday Night will be within a few degrees of 30.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

(December 24-29)

Snow showers and flurries are possible at times from the 24th-27th, but right now it doesn't look like the snow would amount to much in most of the Northland, however, this could all change depending on the tracks of two storm systems.  The first one on Christmas Eve and Day, the other from the 26th-27th.  The tracks of both are a little too far south/east of the us for a lot of snow per Today's model projections, but again this could change in coming days so stay tuned.

Temperatures from the 24th-29th are expected to be pretty close to seasonal normals.

The map below shows the tracks of 3 possible storms for next week.  Keep in mind that the tracks of all three could change a bit in coming days.

Red=Monday-Tuesday storm track (December 22-23)

Black=Wednesday-Thursday storm track (December 24-25)

Purple=Friday-Saturday storm track (December 26-27)



















5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers and flurries at times.  Patchy freezing drizzle possible.  Snowfall accumulations less than 1".  Low 20 to 25.  Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers and flurries possible at times.  Patchy freezing drizzle also possible.  High 27 to 32.  Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 25 to 27.  Wind south around 10 mph.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 27 to 30.

.Monday...  Snow possible.  High 30 to 34.

.Monday Night...  Snow possible.  Low 30 to 32.

.Tuesday...  Snow possible.  High 30 to 32.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  21
Low:    6

Sunrise Saturday:  7:50 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   4:22 PM CST

Tim





 

Thursday, December 18, 2014

December 18, 2014 Weather Report - Mild and generally overcast the next few days; Wet snowfall event early next week

/Issued 3:54 PM CST, Thursday, December 18, 2014/

Accumulating snow is possible in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin next week as low pressure drops southeast out of western Canada.  Temperatures look fairly warm so the snow that falls could be the wet/cement type stuff instead of the fluffy/powdery snow.  

Based on the latest model projections it looks like most of the snow would fall Monday and Tuesday (December 22-23) Any snow that is leftover after Tuesday should be pretty light the way it looks now.  This doesn't look like a huge snowstorm for the Northland, but certainly could be enough snow to cause hazardous travel conditions early next week.  Stay tuned!


















Weather Summary for December 18, 2014
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Far northeast Minnesota saw sun Today, elsewhere skies were generally overcast with just a few peeks of sun every now and then.  A few snow flurries were found near Lake Superior otherwise it was dry.  High temperatures were in the upper teens to middle 20s with upper 20s to around 30 degrees along portions of the North Shore.  Winds were out of the south or east at around 10 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (December 18)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with the possibility for a few flurries.  An area of high pressure which was over the Upper Midwest late This Afternoon will move very little during the night.  Low temperatures will be in the teens and 20s with single digits in the Arrowhead.  South or southeast winds will continue at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday and Friday Night (December 19)

High pressure settles south/east of the Northland this period with a southerly flow occurring on the backside of this high.  Will probably see a good deal of cloudiness Friday and Friday Night with a potential for some flurries and maybe even a touch of freezing drizzle at times.  High temperatures will be in the 20s to lower 30s with lows mainly in the 20s.  Winds will be out of the south at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

Saturday through Monday (December 20-22)

Light snow or freezing drizzle will be possible at times in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Saturday and Sunday.  A better chance for some snow on Monday as low pressure drops southeast out of the northern Plains.

High temperatures from Saturday through Monday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night in the 20s to lower 30s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

(December 23-28)

Low pressure will pass south and southeast of the Northland from Tuesday into Wednesday.  Some snow is possible on Tuesday (23rd) with lingering flurries and snow showers possible from Wednesday-Friday (24th-26th) 

Above average temperatures on the 23rd with near normal temperatures from the 24th-28th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 17 to 22.  Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Considerable cloudiness.  Flurries possible.  High 25 to 30.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries or freezing drizzle possible.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Monday...  Snow possible.  High 30 to 34.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  21
Low:    6

Sunrise Friday:  7:50 AM CST
Sunset Friday:   4:22 PM CST

Tim