Saturday, October 25, 2014

October 25, 2014 Weather Report - Clear and cool Tonight; Shower/t-storm chances return Sunday Evening; Colder temps mid/late next week

/Issued 3:20 PM CDT, Saturday, October 25, 2014/

Big time trough amplification is expected later next week as a chunk of cold air (darker blue/purple colors on the map) drops south out of Central Canada.  It still looks like Halloween will be on the cold side with highs generally in the 30s here in the Northland.  Source, 12z EUROPEAN model valid for Friday, October 31, 2014.

















One week from Today - A major trough east of Minnesota with cold air dropping pretty far to the south, possibly as far south as Georgia and east to North and South Carolina!  Source, 12z EUROPEAN model valid for November 1, 2014.






















High temperature report for October 24, 2014
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  69F
International Falls, MN:  70F
Brainerd, MN:  71F
Hibbing, MN:  72F
Ashland, WI:  70F
Sky Harbor, MN:  70F
Two Harbors, MN:  72F
Silver Bay, MN:  70F
Ely, MN:  70F
Orr, MN:  72F
Cook, MN:  72F
Eveleth, MN:  70F
Bigfork, MN:  72F
Grand Rapids, MN:  70F
Longville, MN:  72F
Pine River, MN:  72F
Aitkin, MN:  72F
Walker, MN:  72F
Superior, WI:  71F
Kabetogama, MN:  71F

Weather Summary for October 25, 2014
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High pressure of 1020mb covered the Northern Plains Today with a strong area of low pressure averaging 990mb over far northeast Ontario.  Strong west or northwest winds were the big weather story across the Northland Today with wind speeds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph - these gusty winds were caused by the pressure difference between the low to our northeast and high to our west.  Sunshine was abundant in our area Today with high temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s which is 10-15 degrees cooler compared to Friday, but Today's high temps are still running above average for late October.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (October 25)

Clear skies and cool temperatures can be expected Tonight with lows in the 30s but a few spots might slip into the 20s.  Northwest winds at 15 to 25 mph early will decrease to 5 to 15 mph and shift to the south or west during the night.

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  30s for most, but the typical cold spots might dip into the 20s.














Sunday and Sunday Night (October 26)

Dry weather is expected Tomorrow with highs in the 50s except for 40s along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Low pressure and warm front approaching from the west will lead to a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms in the Northland from late Sunday Afternoon but more so for Sunday Night. 

 A strong low level jet out of the south will develop ahead of this system in Minnesota on Sunday which results in a warm and moist advection pattern, will also see a pretty good push of elevated instability once again - similar to what occurred just a few days ago.  MOST UNSTABLE CAPE (MUCAPE) values could approach 500 j/kg in parts of the Northland Sunday Night, so we should see at least a few thunderstorms erupt near or after dark on Sunday.  Low temperatures Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s.  Winds during this period will be out of the south or east at 10 to 20 mph.


Sunday's high temperature forecast














Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Monday through Wednesday (October 27-29)

Low pressure will be moving through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday and Tuesday.  This system could bring some rain to the area early Monday and again from Monday Evening into Tuesday.  A few lingering rain showers are possible on Wednesday.  Monday looks pretty mild at the moment with daytime highs in the 50s and maybe even some 60s.  Lows Monday Night will be in the 40s.  Chillier weather moves in for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 40s to around 50 on Tuesday and 30s and 40s for Wednesday.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 30s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(October 30-November 4)

A few rain or snow showers are possible on the 30th.  Halloween looks chilly but dry.  A new system could bring some rain to the area sometime during the 2nd-4th time period.  Below average temperatures on the 30th-31st with near normal temperatures from the 1st-4th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Clear.  Low 33 to 38.  Wind west to northwest at 15 to 25 mph decreasing to 5 to 15 mph and becoming southwest.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 51 to 56.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 43 to 46.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Considerable cloudiness.  High 53 to 58.

.Monday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Rain possible.  Low 42 to 45.

.Tuesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Rain possible.  High 45 to 47.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Wednesday...  Considerable cloudiness.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  47
Low:   32

Sunrise Sunday:  7:42 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   6:02 PM CDT

Tim




Thursday, October 23, 2014

October 23, 2014 Weather Report - Areas of fog Tonight/early Friday; 60s and low 70s ahead on Friday; Breezy but still mild on Saturday

/Issued 3:54 PM CDT, Thursday, October 23, 2014/

A blast of cold air is lurking toward the end of next week, just in time for Halloween!  The image below is from the 12z EUROPEAN model (Today's run) Dark blue and purple colors in Central Canada getting ready to drop south into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest - this could be a pretty good dose of cold air, might be looking at daytime highs holding in the 30s on Halloween (Next Friday)  Stay tuned!  Source, COD website.



















The cold snap late next week is pretty much on schedule with what the long range forecast (LRC) (BSR) have been showing for Duluth during the month of October.


















Weather Summary for October 23, 2014
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

The system which brought rain to the Northland earlier Today exited to our east This Afternoon.  As of late Afternoon mostly cloudy skies prevailed in northwest Wisconsin but sunshine was widespread in northern and eastern Minnesota.  Highs Today were in the mid 40s in the Arrowhead and Price County Wisconsin with mid 60s in western parts of the area with 50s in between.  Winds Today were out of the south or southwest at 10 to around 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (October 23)

A quiet weather night as skies remain clear or partly cloudy while in northwest Wisconsin a slow clearing trend occurs.  Patchy fog is possible later in the night and some of this fog could become dense mainly in parts of northwest Wisconsin where a *DENSE FOG ADVISORY* has been issued from 1 AM Tonight until 10 AM CDT Friday.  Counties included in the advisory are Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer, and Price.  Some cities included in the advisory are Siren, Grantsburg, Danbury, Minong, Trego, Spooner, Shell Lake, Hayward, Winter, Exeland, Park Falls, and Phillips; visibilities in the advisory area could fall to one quarter mile or less at times Overnight into Friday Morning. Lows Tonight will generally be in the 40s as southwest winds continue at 5 to 15 mph.

NWS hazards map.  Dense fog advisory in the gray shaded area on the map.




















Tonight's low temperature forecast

















Friday and Friday Night (October 24)

Low pressure passes by well to our north this period but a warm front and cold front connected to that low will be moving through the area on Friday.  No rain is expected but will probably see some clouds from time to time - so expect partly or mostly cloudy sky conditions.  Highs on Friday will be unseasonably mild for late October with most spots topping out in the 60s, a few western locations might even crack the 70 degree mark but 50s will prevail along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 40s to lower 50s.  Southwest winds on Friday at 10 to 20 mph with northwest or southwest winds Friday Night at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Friday's high temperature forecast

















Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Saturday through Monday (October 25-27)

Dry but windy weather is expected on Saturday as west or northwest winds gust to 25-30 mph.  It will also be cooler on Saturday compared to what will see on Friday, but still looking at above average temperatures with highs forecasted to be in the 50s to around 60 degrees.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.

Most of Sunday looks dry, but showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are possible from late Sunday into Monday as low pressure heads into the Upper Midwest.

High temperatures on Sunday and Monday are forecast to be in the 50s with 40s along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Lows Sunday Night will mainly be in the 40s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(October 28-November 2)

Some rain could linger on Tuesday (28th) as low pressure exits to our east.  Wednesday and Thursday (29th-30th) could feature a few showers of rain and possibly some snow as well.  Dry weather from Halloween - 31st through November 2nd the way looks now.  It will be turning colder next week with below average temperatures a pretty good bet through this whole period, although the coldest weather seems to be targeting the October 30th-November 1st time frame.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Clear to partly cloudy.  Low 43 to 47.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Mild.  High 64 to 69.  Wind southwest at 15 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind southwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Saturday...  Breezy.  Partly cloudy.  High 56 to 61.  West winds gusting to 30 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 35 to 40.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and isolated thunderstorms possible.  Low 40 to 45.

.Monday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and isolated thunderstorms possible.  High 45 to 50.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  48
Low:   33

Sunrise Friday:  7:39 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   6:05 PM CDT

Tim


Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Partial solar eclipse late Thursday Afternoon-early Evening

*Partial solar eclipse on Thursday, October 23, 2014*

Source, earthsky.org






















Timing:

Partial eclipse begins at 4:23 PM 
Maximum eclipse:  5:35 PM

Note: Times listed above are central time zone.

Will we see the partial eclipse on Thursday?  

The image below is the total cloud coverage map valid at 4 PM Thursday.  

White areas=cloud cover.  
Black areas=clear skies.  

Source, 18z NAM/WRF model.

















5 PM Thursday sky conditions.  

Gray area=clouds.  
Brown area=clear skies.  

Source, 18z Hi-Res WRF model.























Tim

October 22, 2014 Weather Report - Showers and perhaps a t'storm Tonight; Warmer Thursday; Nearing 70 on Friday

/Issued 4:24 PM CDT, Wednesday, October 22, 2014/

Tonight's low temperatures and expected weather conditions over the Northland.  More details below...















Not many - but there have been a few lightning strikes late This Afternoon in far eastern Minnesota and also up in southwestern Ontario.



















Rainfall forecast valid through 7 AM Thursday.  Rain totals in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin generally less than 0.25" by daybreak, but a few locations could pick up over a quarter inch of rain.  Source, 18z HopWRF model.























Weather Summary for October 22, 2014
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

We saw a mixture of clouds and sun over the Northland Today as low pressure of 1004mb approaches from western Manitoba.  A warm front and cold front connected to that low are currently moving through the Dakotas.  A 40 knot low level jet has developed ahead of this system over Minnesota Today which has resulted in a pretty good moist and warm air advection pattern, there's also been a decent push of elevated instability which has been moving SW-NE into the Northland This Afternoon with late Afternoon CAPE values of around 200 j/kg per meso-analysis.  Most of us stayed dry Today, but there has been a few showers and isolated thunderstorms that have developed late This Afternoon over eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  High temperatures Today were in the 50s to around 60 degrees with 40s along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Winds were from the south or east at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (October 22)

A warm front and cold front will be weakening as they move into the Upper Midwest Tonight.  Even though this system will be weakening it will still cause some rain across the area Tonight along with a few thunderstorms especially This Evening.  Low temperatures will be in the 40s to low 50s which is fairly mild for the time of year.  Expect mostly cloudy skies and winds out of the south at 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night (October 23)

Low pressure will be centered to our north while a weak surface trough tracks through the area.  There's a chance for some rain on Thursday over northwest Wisconsin and in far northeast Minnesota while the rest of the area stays dry.  All of the Northland should be dry Thursday Night.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s in far northeast Minnesota and eastern portions of northwest Wisconsin.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the 40s.  Winds will be out of the south or west this period at 10 to around 20 mph.

Thursday's high temperature forecast

















Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Friday through Sunday (October 24-26)

Dry weather is forecast through this period.  The warmest day continues to look like it will occur on Friday, cooler but still slightly warmer than normal temps can be expected for both Saturday and Sunday.

Highs on Friday will mainly be in the 60s with a few locales possibly hitting 70.  Expect 50s with 40s in far northern Minnesota for Saturday and Sunday - so yes cooler compared to Friday, but even those forecasted high temps over the weekend are slightly warmer than average for late October.

Could turn fairly windy on Saturday as west winds increase to 20+ mph, wind gusts may reach 30 mph.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(October 27-November 1)

A storm system may affect the Northland on Monday (27th) bringing rain and maybe even a few thunderstorms to the area.  Some rain could linger into Tuesday (28th) as low pressure exits to our east/northeast.  There could be another system sometime during the October 30-November 1 time frame which could bring some more rain to the Northland.  Above average temperatures on the 27th with near normal temperatures from the 28th-1st.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Isolated showers or thunderstorms This Evening with showers becoming more widespread Overnight.  Low 44 to 47.  Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Showers possible during the Morning otherwise partly to mostly cloudy.  High 57 to 62.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 65 to 70.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  Breezy.  High 56 to 61.  West winds could gust to 30 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  48
Low:   33

Sunrise Thursday:  7:38 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   6:07 PM CDT

Tim




Tuesday, October 21, 2014

October 21, 2014 Weather Report - Quiet/cool Tonight; Isolated t'storm risk Wednesday and again on Sunday; Near 70 on Friday

/Issued 4:10 PM CDT, Tuesday, October 21, 2014/

Don't be surprised if there are a few thunderstorms in parts of the Northland Wednesday Afternoon and Night.  The image below is the calibrated thunderstorm probability forecast for Wednesday, the chances aren't that high for thunderstorm activity in our area, but there's at least low probabilities for them to occur.  Model data continues to show a decent push of elevated instability as well for Tomorrow and often times this can help to trigger some convective activity.  Source, 15z SREF model.


















Low temperature forecast for Tonight


















Wednesday's high temperature forecast and expected weather conditions.  The shower/isolated thunderstorm risk will develop first in western portions of the area before spreading further east late Wednesday Afternoon.

















Weather Summary for October 21, 2014
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High pressure of 1026mb was over eastern Ontario with low pressure of 1000mb over southwest Saskatchewan late This Afternoon.  Low clouds earlier in the day gave way to increasing amounts of sunshine over all but a small portion of northeast Minnesota where an area of low clouds continued to dominate as of 4 PM - generally from Two Harbors to Lutsen and inland through most of Lake County, western Cook County, and over eastern St. Louis County per 1km visible satellite imagery.  High temperatures Today were in the 40s and 50s with east or southeast winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (October 21)

A quiet night ahead as clear to partly cloudy skies continue but there will be more extensive low level cloudiness primarily along the North Shore of Lake Superior Tonight.  Low temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s but a few of the typical cold spots in northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead of Minnesota could slip into the 20s.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (October 22)

A low pressure system along with a warm front and cold front will move into the Upper Midwest this period.  SW 850mb jet will increase to around 30-40 knots out ahead of this system on Wednesday which will result in a warm air advection pattern.  The atmosphere will also destabilize Tomorrow with elevated CAPE expected to climb into the 100-500 j/kg range while Lifted Indices drop to +1 to -3C.

Showers will be possible by Wednesday Afternoon-early Evening but a greater chance for showers will arrive Wednesday Evening and through the Overnight hours.  A few thunderstorms could certainly develop as well especially Wednesday Afternoon and Evening the way it looks now.

High temperatures Tomorrow will range from the 40s along the North Shore of Lake Superior with 50s and perhaps a 60 degree temperature elsewhere.  Lows Tomorrow Night will mainly be in the 40s.  Southeast winds on Wednesday will turn south or southwest Wednesday Night - wind speeds will range from 10 to around 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Thursday through Saturday (October 23-25)

A weakening cold front will be moving through the area on Thursday with a lingering threat for a few showers.  Dry weather returns Thursday Night right through Saturday.  High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s through this period with lows Thursday Night and Friday Night in the 40s.  Note:  I still think there's at least a slight chance that some locales here in the Northland hit 70 degrees on Friday or get very close to the 70 degree mark.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(October 26-31)

Above average temperatures are expected on Sunday (26th)  After that we should see a cooling trend with temperatures falling back at least toward average levels, possibly even going below average but will just have to wait and see on that.

A storm system could develop and affect the Northland on the 26th-27th with possible rain and maybe even a few thunderstorms on Sunday (26th)  Another system is possible sometime around the 30th-31st which could bring some more rain to the area.

7-day precipitation forecast valid through Tuesday, October 28, 2014.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.  Quarter to half inch rain totals are possible by early next week over northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.




















5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Low 34 to 39.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Isolated late day showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 50 to 55.  Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Showers possible.  Isolated thunderstorms possible mainly early.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 44 to 47.  Wind becoming south at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Considerable cloudiness.  Showers possible.  High 53 to 58.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 65 to 70.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 56 to 61.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  49
Low:   33

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:36 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   6:09 PM CDT

Tim