Tuesday, March 3, 2015

March 3, 2015 Weather Report - Arctic air returns Tonight with dangerous wind chills and blowing snow; Near 30 by Friday! Snowfall report in this post

/Issued 3:40 PM CST, Tuesday, March 3, 2015/

NWS Duluth hazards map.

Purple=Winter Weather Advisory:  More information at this link - http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory


Light blue=Wind Chill Advisory:  More information at this link - http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=wind%20chill%20advisory



















Snowfall report for March 3, 2015
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

4 S of Sawyer, MN (Carlton County)  6.1"
Wrenshall, MN (Carlton County)  5.0"
Barnum, MN (Carlton County)  5.0"
10 E of Fort Ripley, MN (Crow Wing County)  5.0"
4 S of Bruno, MN (Pine County)  5.0"
Lester Park Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  4.9"

Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County)  4.5"
Cloquet, MN (Carlton County)  4.5"
Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  4.4" -- NWS total.
Moose Lake, MN (Carlton County)  4.3"
14 W of Isabella, MN (Lake County)  4.0"
Mouth Of Brule, WI (Douglas County)  4.0"

Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)  4.0"
Poplar, WI (Douglas County)  4.0"
Beaver Bay, MN (Lake County)  3.5"
1 SE of Springbrook, WI (Washburn County)  3.0"
Lutsen, MN (Cook County)  3.0"
Gile, WI (Iron County)  2.8"
Ely, MN (St. Louis County)  2.0"

Weather Summary for March 3, 2015
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 992mb was over North Central Ontario as of 3 PM Today with a cold front attached to this low moving southeast through Wisconsin.  This system brought accumulating snow to most of the Northland Today.  I think the forecast verified quite nicely Today, about the only thing that may have been off by just a little bit was the timing of the heavier snow, but this wasn't off by very much.
By This Afternoon most of the snow had moved away with just some lingering flurries and light snow showers in spots.  Highs Today were in the teens and 20s with west or northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.  Areas of blowing and drifting snow did occur in parts of the Northland Today due to the gusty winds.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 3)

Arctic high pressure will start to build south/southeast out of Western Canada as strong low pressure moves just east of Hudson Bay.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with a few Evening flurries or snow showers.  Lows will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below with west or northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph especially before Midnight.  Note:  There will be areas of blowing and drifting snow mainly This Evening.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (March 4)

High pressure builds into the Northern Plains during this period.  Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected with highs on Wednesday in the single digits to around 10 above, lows Wednesday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below.  Winds will be out of the northwest or west at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Thursday through Saturday (March 5-7)

High pressure exits to the southeast on Thursday.  Will see an area of low pressure pass north/east of the area Friday-Saturday -- a few flurries could occur as this system moves through but most of us should stay dry.  Highs on Thursday will be in the single digits and teens with 20s and 30s expected on Friday and Saturday.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero with lows Friday Night mainly in the 20s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(March 8-13)

A few more systems look to pass by to our north from Sunday-Tuesday (8th-10th) About the only one that could bring a light snowfall event to parts of the Northland would be on Sunday (8th) the way it looks now.  Near to above average temperatures are forecast from the 8th-13th; in fact there's a pretty good possibility for 30s and 40s in the Northland from Monday-Friday.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

Event:  *WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Timing:  Until Midnight CST Tonight.

Event:  *WIND CHILL ADVISORY*
Timing:  Midnight Tonight until Noon CST Wednesday.

.Tonight...  Windy especially during the Evening with areas of blowing and drifting snow.  Turning colder.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 4 below to 9 below.  Wind west to northwest at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts.  Wind decreasing to 10 to 20 mph late.  Wind chills 20 below to 30 below.

.Wednesday...  Very cold.  Mostly sunny.  High 5 to 10.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Morning wind chills 20 below to 30 below.

.Wednesday Night...  Very cold.  Clear.  Low 10 below to 15 below.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 10 to 15.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 0 to 5.

.Friday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 27 to 32.

.Friday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Saturday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  30
Low:  13

Sunrise Wednesday:  6:43 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   5:58 PM CST

Tim


Monday, March 2, 2015

March 2, 2015 - Evening weather update

/Issued 8:29 PM CST, Monday, March 2, 2015/

Upper Midwest radar loop ending at 8 PM CST.  Source, WSI.

Blue=Snow.

Doesn't look like much now, but snow will gradually increase across the Southern half of Minnesota during the next few hours...The snow area will lift toward the north/east Overnight.




Mid-Evening water vapor satellite image and low pressure/mid-upper trough locations.  Purple area represents 140+ knot upper level winds.  Source, College of Dupage website.



















Quick update

*8 PM:  New model guidance is rolling out.  There is no major change in the 00z NAM or in the 21z SREF models.

*Snow should really start to blossom during the next several hours to our southwest.  Still expecting snow to move into the Twin Ports between 1-3 AM Tonight with around 1" or so of new snow accumulation by around 6 AM Tuesday.

*The majority of the snow should fall before 1 PM Tuesday in the Twin Ports.  Could be some heavier bands of snow Tuesday A.M. with hourly snowfall rates possibly up to 1".

*Around 4" of total snowfall accumulation here in Duluth and Superior with a lesser chance for up to 5".

*Quick moving system, so as I've been saying all along, it might be difficult to get more than 3-4" of snow out of this system, but if a heavier band of snow can setup over the same area for a few hours, then it's certainly not out of the question to pick up around 5" of snow before the snow tapers off Tuesday Afternoon.

Refer to my previous post below for additional information -- including my snowfall map, and NWS winter weather headline information.

http://timsweatherblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/march-2-2015-weather-report-snow-moves.html

Tim

March 2, 2015 Weather Report - Snow moves into the Twin Ports late Tonight; Arctic air returns Tuesday Night

/Issued 3:41 PM CST, Monday, March 2, 2015/

Here it comes!  Water vapor satellite image from 4:15 PM CST.  Source, College of Dupage website. One low over the Southern/Central Rockies tracks east-northeast through Tuesday; the other low over Western Saskatchewan moves generally toward the east.

















Very strong jet stream winds of 150-180 knots late Tonight/Tuesday with the core of the strongest winds lined up from Central Nebraska into the Southern half of Minnesota and Central Wisconsin.  Should see some decent lift/heavier bands of snow develop just northwest/north of the core of the strong winds aloft.  This system will be a quick mover though due in part to the very strong winds aloft.  Source, 18z NAM 32km -- 250mb wind forecast valid Tuesday AM.  Source, tropicaltidbits.com
















Here's my updated snowfall accumulation map through Tuesday PM.













NWS Duluth hazards map.

Purple=Winter Weather Advisory.  More information at this link:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory


















NWS Chanhassen hazards map.

Red=Blizzard Warning
Green=Blizzard Watch
Purple=Winter Weather Advisory

More info. on the blizzard warning can be found at this link:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=mpx&wwa=blizzard%20warning

















2014-15 winter stats (December-February)

Duluth, Minnesota - Airport location

Average temperature:  13.1 degrees
Normal:  13.3 degrees
Departure:  -0.2 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  2.10"
Normal:  2.98"
Departure:  -0.88" below normal

Note:  This was the 31st driest winter on record

Total snowfall:  23.4"
Normal:  49.5"
Departure:  -26.1"

Note:  This was the 24th least snowiest winter on record.

International Falls, Minnesota

Average temperature:  7.3 degrees
Normal:  8.1 degrees
Departure:  -0.8 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  2.87"
Normal:  2.00"
Departure:  +0.87" above normal

Note:  This was the 29th wettest winter on record.

Total snowfall:  47.7"
Normal:  40.8"
Departure:  +6.6" above normal

Note:  This was the 16th snowiest winter on record.

Temperature departure map for December-February, 2014-15.  Source, ACIS/Midwest Regional Climate Center.

















Precipitation departure map for December-February, 2014-15.  Source, ACIS/Midwest Regional Climate Center.


















*Record warm winter in parts of California*
Source:  National Weather Service Sacramento, CA

San Francisco:

Average temperature:  57.0 degrees
Previous warmest:  55.7 degrees (1970)

San Jose:

Average temperature:  54.44 degrees
Previous warmest:  54.42 degrees (1996)

Eureka:

Average temperature:  52.20 degrees
Previous warmest:  52.0 degrees (1940)

Sacramento:

Average temperature:  53.88 degrees
Previous warmest:  52.73 degrees (1996)

Fresno:

Average temperature:  52.62 degrees
Previous warmest:  52.44 degrees (2014)

Weather Summary for March 2, 2015
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High pressure of 1034mb was over Eastern Indiana late This Afternoon.  Low pressure of 1008mb was centered along the Saskatchewan-Manitoba border -- other lows averaging 1004-1006mb were over the Central/Southern Rockies at 3 PM Today.  A cold front was centered over the Western Dakotas/Western High Plains region.

A good deal of sunshine was found across the Northland Today with highs in the mid to upper 20s which is pretty close to normal for early March.  Winds were out of the south at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 2)

Low pressure will move into Central Manitoba Tonight while another low moves east out of the Rockies and into Northern Kansas by daybreak.  A cold front will be connected to these lows and this boundary will move into Western Minnesota Overnight.

Clouds will increase over the Northland This Evening.  Snow develops in Southwest/Southern areas by mid or late Evening with snow gradually lifting north/east after Midnight.  Low temperatures will be in the teens with single digits possible in far Northeast Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the south or southeast at 10 to around 20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (March 3)

One low passes north of us while another low passes south/east of the Northland.  A cold front connected to these lows will move through the area on Tuesday.

Snow will be falling across the entire Northland Tuesday Morning into the early Afternoon.  Snow will then taper off from west-east Tuesday Afternoon.  Mainly dry weather is expected for Tuesday Night.

High temperatures on Tuesday will mainly be in the 20s.  Arctic air returns Tuesday Night with lows in the single digits below to around 20 below.  Winds on Tuesday will be out of the south, west, or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Winds Tuesday Night will be out of the northwest at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts possible.  Areas of blowing and drifting snow could become an issue across parts of the Northland especially Tuesday Night.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Wednesday through Friday (March 4-6)

Arctic high pressure will be in control of our weather on Wednesday and Thursday.  Looks dry but it will be very cold for the time of year.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the single digits below to around 10 above zero with lows Wednesday Night in the single digits, teens, and 20s below.  Highs on Thursday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Thursday Night in the single digits below to single digits above zero.

A low pressure system passes by well to our north on Friday.  Most of the area should remain dry, although a few snow showers and flurries can't be ruled out especially in far Northern Minnesota.  Highs on Friday will warm into the 20s and maybe even the 30s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(March 7-12)

Another low pressure system looks like it will pass off to our north on Sunday/Monday (7th-8th) A few spotty snow showers could occur in the Northland during that aforementioned time frame but that should be about it...Nothing major is expected during the 7th-12th.  Near to below average temperatures from the 7th-10th with near to perhaps above average temperatures on the 11th-12th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

Event:  *WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Timing:  3 AM Tuesday until Midnight CST Tuesday Night

.Tonight...  Clouding up This Evening.  Snow developing between 1-3 AM.  New snowfall accumulations of 1" or less by daybreak.  Low 12 to 17.  Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday...  Snow until around 1 PM with lingering flurries possible after 1 PM.  Total snowfall accumulations of around 4".  High 20 to 25.  Wind south, becoming west at 15 to 25 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Breezy.  Colder.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 3 below to 8 below.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.  Areas of blowing and drifting snow possible.

.Wednesday...  Cold.  Mostly sunny.  High 5 to 10.

.Wednesday Night...  Frigid.  Mostly clear.  Low 10 below to 15 below.

.Thursday...  Mostly sunny.  High 10 to 15.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 0 to 5.

.Friday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  29
Low:  12

Sunrise Tuesday:  6:45 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   5:57 PM CST

Tim








March 2, 2015 - Snow update; Future radar; New snowfall map in this post; Various winter weather headlines in effect including a Blizzard Warning/Watch in parts of Minnesota

/Issued 1:06 PM CST, Monday, March 2, 2015/

Winter weather hazards map.

Purple=Winter Weather Advisory
Red=Blizzard Warning
Green=Blizzard Watch













*Snowfall map* (Updated at 1:29 PM CST)  Total snowfall accumulations from late Tonight through Tuesday.  I'm still a little concerned on how quick this system will be moving, so it may be difficult to get more than 3-4", but we shall see.  The past couple of SREF model runs have been showing favorable snow growth -- dendritic growth zone...So this could lead to larger snowflakes and a more rapid accumulation of snow.














...Update on the approaching snow system...

Almost all of Northeast Minnesota and all of Northwest Wisconsin is under a *Winter Weather Advisory* More information can be found at this link:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory

Blizzard warning information:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=mpx&wwa=blizzard%20warning

Blizzard watch information:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=mpx&wwa=blizzard%20watch

*Snow should begin to develop later This Evening to our southwest with snow spreading north/east during the Overnight hours.  Snow will continue Tuesday Morning into the early to mid-Afternoon hours with snow ending from west-east during the mid to late Afternoon.

*There could be a few bands of fairly heavy snow especially Tuesday Morning and early Afternoon with snowfall rates possibly approaching 1" an hour.

Future radar per 12z NAM 4km model.  Source, tropicaltidbits.com

Note:  The darker green and yellow colors on the maps below indicate moderate to even heavy snow.

12 AM Tonight:















6 AM Tuesday:














9 AM Tuesday:
















12 PM Tuesday:
















For Duluth and Superior:

-Snow begins between 1-3 AM Tonight
-Heaviest snow is expected from roughly 6 AM to 1 PM Tuesday
-Snow tapers off after 1 PM Tuesday
-Expect snow covered roads on Tuesday
-Visibility could drop to a half mile at times in the heavier snow bands

Tim

Sunday, March 1, 2015

March 1, 2015 Weather Report - Latest on Tuesday's snow event; Bitterly cold temps return mid-week; Warming up late in the week

/Issued 3:41 PM CST, Sunday, March 1, 2015/

Updated low pressure track for Monday Night/Tuesday.  The blue outlined area is where snow is expected to fall.  This won't be a major storm by any means, but a few inches to several inches of snow is expected during the Monday Night-Tuesday time frame.  Use caution if you have travel plans.  Winter weather headlines will likely be needed in some parts of the blue area.  Stay tuned!
















Here's what I'm thinking for total snowfall amounts for Monday Night and Tuesday.  It might be difficult to get anything more than 3-4" out of this system do to the fact that it will be a fast mover, so I may be a little on the high side with those 6" totals south of Duluth.  I'll likely update this map at least once during the next 24 hours.













March climate normals for Duluth, Minnesota - Airport location

Temperature:  25.9 degrees
Precipitation:  1.49"
Snowfall:  13.2"

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota - Airport location

February 22-28, 2015

High temperatures:

2/22:  -3F/29 degrees below normal
2/23:  22F/5 degrees below normal
2/24:  25F/2 degrees below normal
2/25:  10F/17 degrees below normal
2/26:  8F/20 degrees below normal
2/27:  18F/10 degrees below normal
2/28:  21F/7 degrees below normal

Low temperatures:

2/22:  -17F/26 degrees below normal
2/23:  -19F/28 degrees below normal
2/24:  1F/8 degrees below normal
2/25:  -5F/15 degrees below normal
2/26:  -15F/25 degrees below normal
2/27:  -11F/22 degrees below normal
2/28:  -1F/12 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  0.02"
Normal:  0.27"
Departure:  -0.25" below normal

Last week's temperature departure map.  Another week that featured amazing temperature departures across the region.  Wow!  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.





















Last week's precipitation departure map.  Very dry in the Northland.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.






















Winter of 2014-15 climate stats for select cities in Minnesota
Source:  National Weather Service Chanhassen, Minnesota

Twin Cities:

Normal:  18.7 degrees

Dec-Feb average temperature:  18.2 degrees
Departure:  -0.5 degrees below normal

Last winter's average temperature:  9.7 degrees
Departure:  -9.0 degrees below normal

St. Cloud:

Normal:  14.8 degrees

Dec-Feb average temperature:  16.4 degrees
Departure:  +1.6 degrees above normal

Last winter's average temperature:  5.5 degrees
Departure:  -9.0 degrees below normal

Weather Tidbits:

*February 2015 goes in the books as the coldest February on record at Marquette, Michigan with an average temperature of 2.4 degrees.

*February 2015 was also the coldest month on record at Marquette, Michigan with an average temperature of 2.4 degrees.  The previous coldest month on record was January 1994 with an average temperature of 2.8 degrees.  Source, NWS Marquette, MI.

Weather Summary for March 1, 2015
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1010mb was over far Northern Ontario with high pressure of 1030mb in Southeast Montana.  Partly to mostly sunny skies were common in the Northland on this 1st day of March.  High temperatures were mid teens to mid 20s with the chilliest temperatures found in extreme Northern Minnesota.  Winds Today were out of the west at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 1)

High pressure builds southeast out of the Northern Rockies.  A few snow showers or flurries are possible This Evening otherwise dry weather is expected for Tonight.  Lows will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero.  Winds will be out of the west or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Monday and Monday Night (March 2)

High pressure will be in control of our weather on Monday resulting in sunny-partly cloudy skies with highs in the 20s, winds will turn to the south or southwest at 10 to 15 mph.  Clouds will be on the increase Monday Night as high pressure exits to our southeast while low pressure approaches from the southwest and also from the northwest.  Should see some snow gradually develop in parts of the Northland Monday Night.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the single digits and teens with southerly winds at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tuesday through Thursday (March 3-5)

Low pressure and a cold front will be affecting the Upper Midwest on Tuesday.  This system will bring accumulating snow to Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with a few inches of accumulation looking like a good bet.  Heavier snow accumulations of 4" or more will be possible especially in parts of Northwest Wisconsin and East Central Minnesota.  The least amount of snow looks to be west and northwest of the Iron Range.  Dry weather and arctic air returns to the area for Wednesday and Thursday.

Highs on Tuesday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Tuesday Night in the single digits below to around 20 below.  Highs on Wednesday will only be in the single digits below to single digits above zero with lows Wednesday Night in the single digits, teens, and 20s below.  Highs on Thursday will be in the single digits and teens.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(March 6-11)

A couple of weak systems look to pass north of our area during the Friday-Sunday (6th-8th) time frame.  Little to no precipitation is expected with these systems.  Near to below normal temperatures from the 6th-11th, but no more arctic outbreaks expected for a little while after the middle of this week.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Evening snow flurries possible.  Low 2 to 7.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday...  Mostly sunny.  High 21 to 26.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday Night...  Increasing cloudiness.  Snow possible late.  Low 12 to 17.  Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday...  Snow.  Total snowfall accumulations of 2-4" possible.  High 20 to 25.

.Tuesday Night...  Colder.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 3 below to 8 below.

.Wednesday...  Cold.  Mostly sunny.  High 5 to 10.

.Wednesday Night...  Very cold.  Mostly clear.  Low 10 below to 15 below.

.Thursday...  Mostly sunny.  High 10 to 15.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  29
Low:  12

Sunrise Monday:  6:47 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   5:56 PM CST

Tim