Saturday, May 27, 2017

75 degrees at the Duluth Airport today (+10 degrees above normal) Scattered Showers/T'storms Sunday - highs in the 60s

/Issued 8:22 PM CDT, Saturday, May 27, 2017/

Source:  https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov

18z HRRRX model.





































Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

*Today's (May 27th) high of 75 degrees is the warmest temperature since September 11 (76 F)

*Today (May 27th) marks the 4th time this month with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees, but this will likely be the last 70 degree temperature we get for the rest of this month.

*5 days at or above 70 F so far this year (Thru May 27th)  9 days at or above 70 F last year thru May 27th.

Weather Synopsis

The main feature that will affect us through Tuesday will be an upper level low pressure system which will move east/southeast out of Manitoba through Monday before it exits slowly off to the east on Tuesday.

This system will bring some showers to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin tonight and Sunday morning, then as daytime heating occurs, the risk for thunderstorms will increase Sunday afternoon into the early evening hours.  Colder temperatures aloft along with steepening mid level lapse rates will move into our area Sunday with CAPE projected to be in the 200-800 j/kg range.  Should be a favorable setup for scattered convection with isolated strong thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon.

The risk for thunderstorms decreases Memorial Day with little to no instability forecast in our area but showers are expected to continue at times.

Lows tonight in the 40s and 50s.  Highs Sunday mainly in the 60s.  Highs Memorial Day cooling off into the 50s with a few locations in far southern parts of the area close to 60 degrees.

Tim


Friday, May 26, 2017

Storm reports from around the Northland from Friday afternoon (May 26)

/Issued 7:54 PM CDT, Friday, May 26, 2017/











Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

Radar loop showing the scattered thunderstorms from late this afternoon.



































Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

Visible satellite loop from late this afternoon showing the scattered showers and thunderstorms which erupted in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with movement off to the east/northeast.

















Source:  https://www.weatherbell.com/
















Local Storm Reports from around the Northland
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Reports from May 26, 2017

*7:38 PM:  HAIL.  0.50 inch.  Spooner, WI 1 ENE (Washburn County)

*7:36 PM:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Spooner, WI (Washburn County)

*7:34 PM:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Spooner, WI 1 ENE (Washburn County)

*5:35 PM:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Twig, MN 4 E (St. Louis County)

*4:26 PM:  HAIL.  0.50 inch.  Aurora, MN (St. Louis County)  A lot of quarter to half inch size hail.

*4:02 PM:  HAIL.  0.75 inch.  Prosit, MN 1 NNW (St. Louis County)  Largest hail was dime sized.  Hail duration 5 minutes.

*3:53 PM:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Hibbing, MN (St. Louis County)  Hail covered the ground.

*3:45 PM:  HAIL.  0.50 inch.  Hibbing, MN 4 W (St. Louis County)  Hail lasted 4 minutes.

*2:35 PM:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Orr, MN 2 S (St. Louis County)

Rainfall reports from Thursday night-Friday, May 25-26, 2017
Source:  http://mesowest.utah.edu

Note:  Totals listed below are through ~7 PM Friday (26th)

Orr, MN:  0.42 in
Moose Lake, MN:  0.26 in
Siren, WI:  0.26 in
Ely, MN:  0.20 in
McGregor, MN:  0.17 in
Isabella, MN:  0.16 in
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN (Airport)  0.09 in
Silver Bay, MN:  0.07 in
Two Harbors, MN:  0.04 in

Weather Synopsis

Temperatures warmed into the 70s over most of the Northland today with cooler 50s closer to Lake Superior.  A few showers earlier in the day gave way to a mix of sun/clouds.  Instability and moisture increased across parts of the area this afternoon, and this combined with an approaching cold front helped to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms over parts of the area.  Torrential downpours, small hail and cloud to ground lightning strikes were the main hazards out of the storms today.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this evening in far northeast Minnesota and in parts of northwest Wisconsin.  This activity will either weaken or move out of the area by late this evening.  The overnight hours will be dry with patchy fog possible.  Lows will be in the 40s and 50s.

Saturday still looks like the warmest day of the holiday weekend with highs mainly in the 70s under partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Could be a few showers or thunderstorms in parts of the area especially from the afternoon through the overnight hours.

A better chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms for Sunday as daytime heating couples with colder temperatures aloft to help make the atmosphere unstable -- A few of the storms Sunday could be on the strong side with potential for some hail and or gusty winds.

Note:  Widespread, all day rains are not expected Saturday or Sunday in the Northland but scattered activity will develop at times with the better chance for this coming on Sunday.

Memorial Day (Monday) will be cool and showery at times.

Highs Sunday are expected to be in the 60s with highs Monday only in the 50s to around 60 degrees while some locations in far northern Minnesota stay in the 40s!

Couple storm pics I took from late Friday afternoon, May 26, 2017.  I was at the Highway 23 overlook, near Wrenshall, Minnesota and Jay Cooke State Park.














































Tim












Thursday, May 25, 2017

Scattered showers at times through Friday evening. West wind and 70 degrees in Duluth Saturday

/Issued 5:03 PM CDT, Thursday, May 25, 2017/

Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Surface map valid for Friday afternoon.  Red line=Warm front.  Blue line=Cold front.















Source:  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com

12z European Ensemble model.














Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

-Going into today (May 25th) The average temperature for the month of May was 48.8 degrees; -1.7 degrees below normal.  May 2017 will likely be a below average temperature month.  This will be the first below average May since 2013, and the first below average temperature month since April 2016.

-No 80 degree days this month -- This is the first May since 2011 without at least one 80 degree day.  Dating back to 2000, there have been 7 Mays with zero 80 degree days.  2011, 2008, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003 and 2001.  Of those 7, only 2 were followed by a cooler than normal summer (June-August) The most recent was in 2008, and prior to that 2004.

Weather Synopsis

Upper level trough has moved off to the east today while a brief upper level ridge moves over the upper Midwest.  Temperatures over most of the Northland were close to normal to slightly above normal on this 25th day of May with highs in the mid to upper 60s, even a few lower 70s in parts of northwest Wisconsin.  Of course the exception to this was near Lake Superior as the wind direction remained out of the east today which kept temperatures in the 50s.  Skies across the Northland were partly to mostly cloudy today.

Our weather for tonight through Friday evening will be controlled by an area of low pressure which will be centered off to our northwest while a warm front and cold front attached to this low move through the Northland -- Moisture will be on the increase tonight as PWATS increase to around 1.00" to as high as 1.25" while dew points Friday afternoon climb into the 50s over parts of the Northland.

There will likely be a couple rounds of rain showers that'll move through the Northland beginning this evening, and then continuing through Friday evening.  The rain tonight will generally be on the light side and not everyone will get wet, this rain will be caused by deeper moisture which will advect into our area during the night.

The showers Friday may be a little heavier but again not all of us will get wet.

Instability is forecast to increase Friday afternoon with a corridor of CAPE in the 300-800 j/kg range over parts of north central and east central Minnesota.  This coupled with steepening mid level lapse rates should be enough to produce a few thunderstorms in the aforementioned areas Friday.  Severe weather is not expected but the thunderstorms could produce some small hail or gusty winds along with occasional lightning especially in the afternoon/early evening hours.

It'll be milder tonight than it has been in previous nights with lows in the 40s to mid 50s.  Friday's high temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s and 70s with 50s near Lake Superior.

...Memorial Day weekend...

Note:  The average high temperature is ~66 degrees from Saturday through Monday.

Saturday still looks like the drier day of the 3-day weekend.  Highs Saturday are forecast to be around 70-72 degrees in Duluth with a westerly wind for a change!

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms Sunday with more scattered showers Memorial Day.  The coolest day will be on Monday with highs near 60 degrees in Duluth, while highs Sunday range from 63 to 67 degrees.  Winds Sunday and Monday will be out of the north or northwest.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  A few showers at times.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 43 to 48.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Scattered showers.  Mostly cloudy.  High 60 to 65, cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  65
Low:   43

Sunrise Friday:  5:22 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   8:49 PM CDT

Tim


Wednesday, May 24, 2017

East wind continues through Friday (Cool near Lake Superior, milder away from the lake) Scattered showers Thursday night-Friday

/Issued 4:42 PM CDT, Wednesday, May 24, 2017/

Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/dlhwrf

12z Duluth WRF model

Heads up if you have travel plans around the area later tonight into Thursday morning as areas of fog could develop in parts of the Northland.
















Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/

More frost up north earlier this morning!
















Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/

Over 800 severe weather reports last week (15th-21st) across the Midwest.  The map below shows all the storm reports from last week (Legend is on the upper right)































Weather Synopsis

Below average high temperatures continued over most of the Northland today with highs in the 50s to around 60 degrees, even cooler though near Lake Superior with upper 40s to around 50 degrees.  Far northern Minnesota which had the coldest temperatures in the Northland early this morning now have the warmest temperatures this afternoon with readings in the mid 60s which is close to average for the 24th of May.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies over the area today with still some lingering effects of the large upper low/trough continuing today as this system covered the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and parts of the southeast U.S.  Note:  There was even some patchy drizzle that moved inland off Lake Superior this morning near the head of the lake.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies for tonight with areas of fog possible late.  Lows in the 30s and 40s.  Any fog and or low clouds that develop tonight is forecast to burn off Thursday morning with the exception to this near Lake Superior as a moist NE flow off the lake could help lock in the low clouds/fog until sometime Thursday afternoon.  Highs Thursday in the 40s and 50s near Lake Superior -- Warmer inland with highs in the 60s to lower 70s.

Scattered showers could return to the Northland Thursday night into Friday as an area of low pressure along with a warm front and cold front approach from the west.  Widespread rain is not expected with this system but scattered showers could occur at times.  One more day with east winds near Lake Superior (Friday) with highs in the 40s and 50s while inland locations get into the 60s, possibly the 70s if there are less clouds than what is forecast at the moment.

Note:  A much needed break from the east wind will occur near Lake Superior this weekend as winds swing around to the west Saturday with north or northwest winds Sunday and Monday.  High temps Saturday have a chance to get as warm as 70 to 73 degrees near the lake (That will feel nice!)

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Areas of fog possible late.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Areas of fog possible mainly during the morning.  High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  65
Low:   43

Sunrise Thursday:  5:23 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   8:49 PM CDT

Tim

Tuesday, May 23, 2017

Frost Advisory for far northern Minnesota early Wednesday morning. Mix of sun/clouds Wednesday, still cool near Lake Superior (Patchy fog possible)

/Issued 4:42 PM CDT, Tuesday, May 23, 2017/

Here's the setup for Sunday-Tuesday, May 28-30.
















Source:  http://wx.aerisweather.com
















Normal highs in Duluth are in the middle 60s in late May -- Probably won't be getting into the middle 60s for a few more days.












*Memorial Day weekend forecast for Duluth*

Note:  Normal high temperature from the 27th-29 is 66 degrees.

Saturday (27th) Mix of sun/clouds.  High near 70.  West wind.
Sunday (28th) A few showers possible.  High around 65.  North-northwest wind.
Memorial Day (29th) A few showers possible.  High around 63.  North-northwest wind.

Weather Synopsis

Very little change in the weather today.  Upper level low has dropped south into Iowa while a large upper level trough covered the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes.  Scattered showers have been drifting southwest out of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this afternoon otherwise there was a good deal of clouds over the Northland with continued cool late May temperatures with highs in the 50s but 40s were common near Lake Superior where some patchy fog developed during the afternoon.

Scattered showers will persist this evening in parts of the Northland under mostly cloudy skies.  Mainly dry weather overnight under partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Patchy frost late in far northern Minnesota with areas of fog possible near Lake Superior.

The Northland should be mainly dry Wednesday as the upper level system which has been affecting us the past few days moves farther away from our area, this will be replaced by high pressure but even with the high building in, lingering clouds are still expected although there should be a bit more sun compared to previous days.  Note:  The exception to this may be near Lake Superior as an east wind off the lake could result in lingering low clouds/fog most of the day but the expectation is that there will be enough dry air moving in which should allow for at least some sun even near Lake Superior.

Lows tonight in the 30s and 40s, highs Wednesday in the 60s but in the 40s and 50s near Lake Superior.

Looks a bit milder Thursday with some parts of the Northland getting into the lower 70s but it will remain much cooler near Lake Superior.  The next system to affect us will do so later this week but this one isn't expected to bring a lot of rain to our area, instead will likely be dealing with a few showers Thursday night into Friday.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Areas of fog.  Mostly cloudy but some partial clearing at times.  Low 42 to 46.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday...  Low clouds and patchy fog possible, otherwise partly sunny.  High 54 to 57 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  65
Low:   43

Sunrise Wednesday:  5:24 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   8:47 PM CDT

Tim






Monday, May 22, 2017

East wind returns for Tuesday-Wednesday (Cool temps continue) Drizzly/Showery at times into Tuesday. Rainfall stats for May in this post, and a look ahead to the forecast for Memorial Day weekend for the Twin Ports

/Issued 4:37 PM CDT, Monday, May 22, 2017/

Source:  https://www.weatherbell.com/

Quite a range in rainfall totals this month with below average totals in northwest-far northern Minnesota while rainfall totals have been well above average in central, eastern and southern Minnesota and in northwest Wisconsin.  See stats below.

Duluth, Minnesota:  3.77 inches (+1.63 inches above normal)
International Falls, Minnesota:  0.59 inches (-1.23 inches below normal)
Twin Cities, Minnesota:  4.75 inches (+2.47 inches above normal)
Ashland, Wisconsin 3 S:  5.30 inches (+2.98 inches above normal)
Hurley, Wisconsin:  4.39 inches (+2.19 inches above normal)
















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu
















Weather Tidbits:

-Going into today (May 22nd) the average temperature for the month of May at Duluth, Minnesota was 48.6 degrees; -1.5 degrees below average.  The last time a below average temperature month occurred at Duluth was in April of 2016 (-1.9 degrees below normal)

-May 2017 could also be a below average temperature month at both International Falls and in Minneapolis, Minnesota.  The last time a below average temperature month occurred at International Falls was in June 2016; and in Minneapolis you have to go all the way back to August 2015!

Holiday weekend is approaching (Memorial Day)  Here is the early forecast for the Twin Ports.  This forecast could change in coming days.

Note:  The average high temperature from the 27th-29th is 66 degrees.

Saturday (27th)  Shower possible. Mix of sun/clouds.  High around 68.  West wind.
Sunday (28th)  Shower possible.  Mix of sun/clouds.  High around 66.  Northwest wind.
Monday - Memorial Day (29th)  Mix of sun/clouds.  High around 62.  North-northwest wind.

Weather Synopsis

An area of low pressure was centered south of Hudson Bay Canada late this afternoon with an upper level low heading SW toward Lake Of The Woods in far northwest Minnesota.  Cool and generally overcast skies over the Northland today with scattered light rain showers at times.  Temperatures this afternoon ranged from the upper 40s to middle 50s which is roughly 10-15 degrees below normal.

Not much change in our weather through Tuesday.  The upper low will drop south out of northwest Minnesota and is expected to move into Missouri by early Wednesday morning while a larger upper level trough encompasses the upper Midwest and Great Lakes through midweek.

Generally mostly cloudy sky conditions in the Northland tonight and Tuesday, but like today there probably will be some breaks in the clouds at times but don't expect a lot of sun Tuesday.

Lows tonight mainly in the 40s, maybe a few spots dipping into the 30s if skies clear for a time.  Highs Tuesday in the 40s and 50s (Below average for May 23rd)

Midweek looks dry with a bit more sunshine expected.  Highs Wednesday getting into the 60s but an east wind will result in temperatures holding ~50 degrees near Lake Superior.  You can pretty much copy Wednesday's high temperature forecast and use them for Thursday although a few spots could get into the lower 70s Thursday in far western-northern portions of the Northland, but temperatures will be much cooler near Lake Superior (Surprise, Surprise)

Note:  There is a chance for patchy frost in parts of the Northland for Tuesday night-early Wednesday morning, and again for Wednesday night-early Thursday morning.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Patchy drizzle and light showers at times.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest.

.Tuesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible at times.  High 47 to 52.  Wind becoming northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  64
Low:   43

Sunrise Tuesday:  5:25 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   8:46 PM CDT

Tim

Sunday, May 21, 2017

West wind in Duluth Monday, heatwave with highs 50-55F; Strong east wind returns Tue PM-Wed. Frost threat midweek. More clouds, little bit of sun and a few more showers at times tonight-Tue

/Issued 4:56 PM CDT, Sunday, May 21, 2017/

Source:  https://www.weatherbell.com/

Blue and green areas indicate below average temperatures
Orange areas indicate above average temperatures
Areas in white indicate near normal temperatures

















Source:  https://www.weatherbell.com/
















Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Temperature departure map for the week of May 14th.




















Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Precipitation departure map for the week of May 14th.




















Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

May 14-20, 2017

High temperatures:

5/14:  59 F/-3 degrees below normal
5/15:  60 F/-2 degrees below normal
5/16:  58 F/-4 degrees below normal
5/17:  59 F/-4 degrees below normal
5/18:  58 F/-5 degrees below normal
5/19:  52 F/-11 degrees below normal
5/20:  47 F/-17 degrees below normal

Low temperatures:

5/14:  42 F/+2 degrees above normal
5/15:  42 F/+2 degrees above normal
5/16:  45 F/+4 degrees above normal
5/17:  49 F/+8 degrees above normal
5/18:  38 F/-3 degrees below normal
5/19:  33 F/-9 degrees below normal
5/20:  37 F/-5 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  2.94"
Normal:  0.73"
Departure:  +2.21" above normal

Note:  The last time the Duluth Airport had an above average high temperature was on May 13th, over a week ago now.  No signs of an above average high temperature coming anytime soon, so this streak will continue.

*Through May 21st -- 3 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees at the Duluth Airport.  The 1981-2010 average for May is 8 days.  Might add one more day to the total but probably won't be more than that the way it's looking.

24-hour rainfall totals across the Northland
Source:  http://mesowest.utah.edu

Note:  Totals listed below are for the 24-hour period ending at 3 PM today (May 21, 2017)

Silver Bay, MN:  1.11 in
Longville, MN:  1.04 in
Two Harbors, MN:  0.87 in
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.83 in
Isabella, MN:  0.81 in
Skibo, MN:  0.73 in
Ely, MN:  0.68 in
Moose Lake, MN:  0.61 in
McGregor, MN:  0.58 in
Hill City, MN:  0.56 in
Washburn, WI:  0.56 in
Hayward, WI:  0.52 in
Solon Springs, WI:  0.51 in
Minong, WI:  0.48 in
Grand Marais, MN:  0.44 in
Siren, WI:  0.44 in
Clam Lake, WI:  0.44 in
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN (Airport)  0.43 in
Phillips, WI:  0.39 in
Brainerd, MN:  0.39 in
Cass Lake, MN:  0.36 in
Grand Portage, MN:  0.38 in
Glidden, WI:  0.34 in
Hinckley, MN:  0.34 in
Walker, MN:  0.33 in
Pine River, MN:  0.29 in
Ashland, WI:  0.28 in
Littlefork, MN:  0.26 in
Kabetogama, MN:  0.24 in
International Falls, MN:  0.23 in
Orr, MN:  0.21 in

Weather Synopsis

Widespread rains have ended but there will continue to be scattered showers and patchy drizzle at times across the Northland through Tuesday.  Low pressure responsible in this latest round of soaking rain has moved into western Lake Superior (Southeast of Grand Marais, MN) late this afternoon.  The surface low will lift slowly N/NE, setting up north of Lake Superior Monday while a large upper level low remains over the upper Midwest before it shifts farther to the south/east by Wednesday.

Expect a continuation of mostly cloudy skies into Tuesday although some breaks in the overcast are certainly possible at times but overall the theme of more clouds than sun will continue Monday and Tuesday.

The Twin Ports will finally get a brief break in the strong east wind the next few days.  Winds will swing around to the west tonight, and will remain out of the west Monday before they back to the east/northeast again Tuesday and Wednesday, in fact it looks quite windy again late Tuesday and Wednesday with east winds possibly gusting to ~25mph.  Unfortunately even with the wind shifting to the west it really won't warm us up too much as highs remain around 10 degrees below average Monday and Tuesday.

Lows tonight will mainly be in the 40s with highs Monday in the 40s and 50s.

Note:  There will be a chance for patchy frost in parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin toward the middle of the week.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers and some drizzle.  Areas of fog especially during the evening.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Considerable cloudiness.  Scattered showers.  High 50 to 55.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  64
Low:   42

Sunrise Monday:  5:26 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   8:45 PM CDT

Tim