Wednesday, October 1, 2014

September was warmer and drier than normal at Duluth, Minnesota

September 2014 climate summary for Duluth, Minnesota -Airport location

Average temperature:  57.4 degrees
Normal:  55.6 degrees
Departure:  +1.8 degrees

Warmest high temperature:  81F on the 28th
Warmest low temperature:  59F on the 4th

Coldest high temperature:  49F on the 30th
Coldest low temperature:  34F on the 13th

15 days with a high temperature of at least 70F
2 days with a high temperature of at least 80F
9 days with a high temperature cooler than 60F
1 day with a high temperature cooler than 50F

3 days with a low temperature cooler than 40F

Total precipitation:  1.64"
Normal:  4.11"
Departure:  -2.47"

Heaviest daily precipitation total:  0.58" on the 20th

Number of days with at least 0.01" of precipitation:  11
Number of days with at least 0.10" of precipitation:  6
Number of days with at least 0.50" of precipitation:  1

Total snowfall:  0.0"
Normal:  0.1"
Departure:  -0.1"

Notes:

14 days with at least a trace of precipitation
2 thunderstorm days

September marked the 5th consecutive month with an above average monthly temperature (May-September)



September 2014 temperature departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.

























September 2014 precipitation departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.
































September 2013 climate summary for Duluth, MN - Airport location

Average temperature:  59.9 degrees
Departure:  +4.3 degrees

14 days with a high temperature of at least 70F
2 days with a high temperature of at least 80F
1 day with a high temperature cooler than 60F

3 days with a low temperature cooler than 40F

Total precipitation:  1.26"
Departure:  -2.85"

Total snowfall:  0.0"
Departure:  -0.1"

12 days with at least a trace of precipitation
1 thunderstorm day

Tim

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

September 30, 2014 Weather Report - A few showers late Tonight; Rain possible on Wednesday; Near 60 Thursday with more rain and colder temps later this week.

/Issued 4:05 PM CDT, Tuesday, September 30, 2014/

Rain is on the way.  Here's the rainfall forecast valid through Wednesday Night.  Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota should receive the greatest amount of rain Tomorrow with totals of 0.50-1.00" with over an inch of rain possible in parts of NW Wisconsin.  Lesser amounts for Northern Minnesota.  More rain is possible later this week.  Source, 18z Hires NAM/WRF model.























Here's Today's weather setup and the Afternoon water vapor satellite image.  Source, COD website.


























October begins on Wednesday - here are the averages for the month at the Duluth Airport.

Temperature:  43.2 degrees
Precipitation:  2.85"
Snowfall:  2.3"

Astronomical data for October

Sunrise on the 1st:  7:07 AM
Sunrise on the 31st:  7:49 AM

Sunset on the 1st:  6:48 PM
Sunset on the 31st:  5:56 PM

Weather Summary for September 30, 2014
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A strong area of low pressure averaging 996mb was over Western South Dakota late This Afternoon with high pressure of 1020mb stretching from Eastern Ontario through the Great Lakes.

We stayed dry Today with sunshine if you were away from Lake Superior, near the lake low clouds dominated but there has been some partial sunshine that has developed during the Afternoon.

High temperatures on the final day of September 2014 were in the 50s to around 60 degrees with 40s along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Winds were out of the east at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (September 30)

Low pressure in the 992-995mb range will track out of Western South Dakota and into Northern North Dakota by daybreak.  A strong low level jet out ahead of this system will result in a warm and moist advection pattern Tonight and this should eventually lead to the development of rain showers across the Northland.  There may even be a few thunderstorms late Tonight especially over East Central Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Temperatures won't move much Tonight with readings holding in the 50s with 40s closer to Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the east or southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (October 1)

An area of low pressure will lift up into Manitoba while an occluded front moves slowly toward the east across the Upper Midwest.  Rain will occur at times mainly over Eastern Minnesota, North Shore and Arrowhead through most of Northwest Wisconsin with a lesser chance for rain the farther west you are - say from the Brainerd Lakes to International Falls.

Highs on Wednesday will be in the 40s and 50s with similar temperatures expected Wednesday Night.  Winds Tomorrow will be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph.  Winds Tomorrow Night will be out of the south, west, or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Thursday through Saturday (October 2-4)

...Much colder temperatures on the way...

Another area of low pressure is forecast to lift northeast out of the Central Plains on Thursday and should reach Lake Superior or just west/north of Lake Superior by Friday and Saturday.  As this low heads north it will deepen thanks to some additional energy which pushes southeast into the Upper Midwest on Friday which will help deepen the Plains surface low.

Most of Thursday will have slight rain chances, but the rain threat increases Thursday Evening with additional chances for rain/showers Friday and Saturday as moisture wraps around the area of low pressure to our N/NE.

Temperatures will tumble by Friday and Saturday, but first on Thursday will have highs in the 50s and 60s with lows Thursday Night in the 40s and 50s.  Friday and Saturday will feature high temperatures only in the 40s to around 50 degrees with lows Friday Night in the 30s to around 40.  Note:  There should be enough cold air in place by late Friday-Saturday to produce a rain/snow mix or an all snow scenario just north of Minnesota, and there is even a chance for a little bit of snow to mix in with the rain Friday Night-Saturday mainly along the Ontario-Minnesota border and over the higher terrain of the Arrowhead.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(October 5-10)

Below to perhaps near normal temperatures are expected during this period.  A northwest flow aloft should be in place with the potential for a few clipper type systems affecting the region with some showers at times.


500mb map valid for Friday, October 3.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.























500mb map valid for Monday, October 6, 2014.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

-The main message from these two maps is that once the upper low (L on the map) develops over the Great Lakes and Minnesota on Friday it won't be in a hurry to move out.  Tracks from Minnesota to Northern Ontario between Friday and Monday, yeah it takes a while.


























5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible after Midnight.  Low 43 to 48.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday...  Occasional rain.  Mostly cloudy.  High 48 to 53.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Rain possible mainly early.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 48 to 53.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph becoming southwest late.

.Thursday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 61 to 66.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Rain possible.  Low 40 to 45.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  Rain possible.  High 45 to 50.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Rain possible.  Low 34 to 39.

.Saturday...  Considerable cloudiness.  Showers possible.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  59
Low:   40

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:07 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   6:48 PM CDT

Tim











Monday, September 29, 2014

September 29, 2014 Weather Report - Cool temps continue thru Wednesday; Warms up a bit on Thursday; More chilly stuff later this week; Shower threat Tuesday Night/Wednesday.

/Issued 3:39 PM CDT, Monday, September 29, 2014/

Quite a bit of weather going on out there Today.  Big time temperature contrast depending on which side of the cold front you're on.  A storm churning north through the Rockies is producing severe weather Today, this same storm could bring some severe weather to portions of South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa on Tuesday.  Source, COD website/visible satellite image.






















Here's a plot of 24 hour temperature changes from Noon Today compared to Noon Sunday.  Yeah this was one potent cold front that's for sure.  30 to nearly 40 degrees colder Today compared to Sunday across the Northland.


























Weather Tidbits for Duluth, MN - Airport location

*High temperature of 80 degrees on September 27 was the 1st 80 degree high temperature since August 15 (82 degrees)

*Sunday may have been the last of the 80 degree temperatures in Duluth until spring 2015.  Assuming this is the case, then September 28 for the last 80 in 2014 compared to September 7, 2013.

*RECORD EVENT*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Record high temperature at Duluth, Minnesota on September 28, 2014.

New record:  81 degrees
Previous record:  79 degrees set in 1956 and 1898.

Temperature & precipitation report for Duluth, MN - Airport location

September 21-27, 2014

High temperatures:

9/21:  64F/1 degree above normal
9/22:  72F/10 degrees above normal
9/23:  73F/11 degrees above normal
9/24:  68F/7 degrees above normal
9/25:  65F/4 degrees above normal
9/26:  76F/15 degrees above normal
9/27:  80F/20 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

9/21:  46F/2 degrees above normal
9/22:  44F/Normal
9/23:  50F/7 degrees above normal
9/24:  56F/13 degrees above normal
9/25:  53F/11 degrees above normal
9/26:  50F/8 degrees above normal
9/27:  55F/13 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.03"
Normal:  0.94"
Departure:  -0.91"

Rainfall report for September 28-29, 2014
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  0.33"
International Falls, MN:  0.40"

Brainerd, MN:  0.20"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.36"
Hibbing, MN:  0.19"
Ashland, WI:  0.31"
7 NW of Brainerd, MN:  0.44"
Bruno, MN:  0.38"
12 N of Isle, MN:  0.33"
Cass Lake, MN:  0.20"
Cook, MN:  0.44"
Embarrass, MN:  0.22"
Floodwood, MN:  0.34"
Grand Portage, MN:  0.25"
4 E of Island Lake, MN:  0.62"
Silver Bay, MN:  0.40"
2 S of Tower, MN:  0.44"
Finland, MN:  0.41"
9 N of Bayfield, WI:  0.27"
Gordon, WI:  0.21"
Kabetogama, MN:  0.33"

Weather Summary for September 29, 2014
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Much colder and windier across the Northland Today as a powerful cold front swept through the area last night.  A wind shift to the east took place behind that front which resulted in a 24-hour temperature change of 30 to nearly 40 degrees across the area Today.  Highs were only in the 40s with 50s in Western areas. 

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (September 29)

High pressure of around 1025mb will be centered over Ontario Tonight.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found over the Northland with lows in the 30s and 40s.  East or northeast winds will continue at 5-15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (September 30)
An area of high pressure will move into Eastern Canada this period while a fairly strong area of low pressure tracks N/NE out of the Western High Plains and into the Northern Plains.  Partly to mostly sunny skies are forecast across the area on Tuesday with highs in the 50s and 60s with 40s along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s under a partly to mostly cloudy sky.  Note:  There is a chance for some showers by Tuesday Night as that system to our west/southwest approaches the Upper Midwest.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Wednesday through Friday (October 1-3)

Low pressure heads into Manitoba on Wednesday while an occluded front pushes through the Northland...This system should bring some showers to the area on Wednesday. 

For Thursday and Friday, low pressure passes north of our area while a secondary low heads northeast of the Plains - reaching the Central/Northern Great Lakes region by Friday.  Rain associated with that system looks like it will remain south/east of the Northland, but an upper level system dropping SE into the Upper Midwest on Friday could bring some showers to our area.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s and 60s Wednesday and Thursday with highs on Friday in the 40s and 50s.  Note:  It will be cooler along the North Shore of Lake Superior especially on Wednesday.  Low temperatures Wednesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.  Lows Thursday Night will mainly be in the 40s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(October 4-9)

Near to below average temperatures are expected during this period.  A northwest flow aloft will allow a few clipper like systems to drop southeast out of Western/Central Canada, these systems could bring a few showers to the Northland from time to time but no major storm systems are expected at this time.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy but some partial clearing may develop during the night.  Low 39 to 44.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 46 to 51.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible late.  Low 40 to 45.

.Wednesday...  Considerable cloudiness.  Showers possible.  High 50 to 55.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 61 to 66.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low 40 to 45.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 45 to 50.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  59
Low:   41

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:06 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   6:50 PM CDT

Tim





Thursday, September 25, 2014

September 25, 2014 Weather Report - Fog possible Tonight/Friday AM; Sunnier skies Friday; Real nice weekend ahead. Severe weather stats included in this post.

/Issued 3:16 PM CDT, Thursday, September 25, 2014/

Early fall heat wave to our west with widespread 80s and 90s Today underneath an upper level ridge (Pink outline area on the map)  This ridge moves further east Friday-Sunday.  Source, water vapor satellite image COD website.































Weather Tidbits:

-Thru September 25, the Duluth Airport has had 89 days so far this year with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees.  The annual average is 85 days.

-Minnesota severe weather stats for 2014:  Tornadoes:  27; Wind damage:  203; Hail:  160

-Wisconsin severe weather stats for 2014:  Tornadoes:  20; Wind damage:  198; Hail:  122

Note:  Nebraska leads the way with 87 tornado reports so far this year followed by Mississippi at 75 tornado reports and rounding out the top three is Iowa with 63 tornado reports.

2014 severe weather reports map for Minnesota per Storm Prediction Center.

Red dots=Tornado reports
Blue dots=Damaging wind reports
Green dots=Large hail reports
































2014 severe weather reports map for Wisconsin per Storm Prediction Center.

Red dots=Tornado reports
Blue dots=Damaging wind reports
Green dots=Large hail reports





































Weather Summary for September 25, 2014
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Western-Southern portions of the area saw the most clearing Today while overcast skies continued in Northeast Minnesota.  High temperatures were in the 60s and 70s with upper 50s along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Winds were out of the south or southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (September 25)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found over the area Tonight with lows in the 50s to low 60s but some spots will probably fall into the 40s.  South or southeast winds are expected at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday and Friday Night (September 26)

An upper level ridge which has been sitting to our west in recent days will push a little more to the east on Friday.  The net result should be for mostly sunny skies across the Northland with highs in the 70s except for 60s along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Lows Friday Night will mainly be in the 50s.  Winds will be out of the south or southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Saturday through Monday (September 27-29)

Mainly dry weather is expected this weekend with above average temperatures.  Highs should be in the 70s both Saturday and Sunday with a few locales possibly up around 80 degrees.  Lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the 50s and 60s. 

Changes take place Sunday Night into Monday as a cold front drops south while high pressure builds into Ontario.  This should lead to much cooler temperatures and gusty east winds near Lake Superior - there will also be a chance for some showers from Sunday PM into Monday across the Northland.  High temperatures on Monday will be in the 50s and 60s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(September 30-October 5)

Near to above average temperatures from the 30th-October 2nd, after that we could see near to even below average temperatures from the 3rd-5th of October.  A pattern change takes place next week as an upper level trough sets up to our west with a SW mid/upper level flow across the Plains and Great Lakes.  Two systems may affect our weather, both producing some rain.  The 1st looks like it would be on September 30-October 1, the 2nd system sometime around the 2nd-4th of October the way it looks now.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Fog possible late.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Areas of fog early.  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 53 to 58.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 72 to 77.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 72 to 77.

.Sunday Night...  Turning breezy and cooler.  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low 45 to 50.  East wind gusting to 25 mph.

.Monday...  Breezy and cooler.  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 50 to 55.  East wind gusting to 25 mph.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  61
Low:   42

Sunrise Friday:  7:01 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   6:58 PM CDT

Tim

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

September 24, 2014 Weather Report - Clouds and light showers Tonight; 70 degrees or warmer Friday-Sunday.

/Issued 3:56 PM CDT, Wednesday, September 24, 2014/

Weather Summary for September 24, 2014
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A well defined upper level disturbance is tracking east/northeast through the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes Today.  Mostly cloudy skies were common across the Northland Today with some showers especially over Northwest Wisconsin.  With the clouds in place highs Today were cooler than the previous two days with 60s for most of us.  Winds were out of the south at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (September 24)

Mostly cloudy skies will continue Tonight with some showers mainly over Northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead of Minnesota.  There could be some clearing that takes place later in the night, but most of us should remain overcast.  Lows will mainly be in the 50s with south or southeast winds at 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night (September 25)

The upper level disturbance which is moving across the area Today will settle S/SE of the Northland this period.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are in the forecast with an outside chance of a shower during the day Thursday.  Highs will be in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 50s to around 60.  South or southeast winds are expected at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Friday through Sunday (September 26-28)

Mainly dry weather can be expected Friday and Saturday as an upper level ridge of high pressure sets up over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.  High temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s from Friday through Sunday with lows Friday Night and Saturday Night in the 50s to around 60.  Note:  It will be cooler especially along the North Shore of Lake Superior as southerly winds blow across the Western shore of the lake through this period.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(September 29-October 4)

A few showers are possible on the 29th-30th, and again toward the 2nd-3rd of October.  Near to above average temperatures from the 29th-October 1st and near to possibly below average temperatures from the 2nd-4th of October.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  A few light showers or sprinkles possible.  Low 53 to 58.  Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 63 to 68.  Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 53 to 58.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 72 to 77.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  61
Low:   43

Sunrise Thursday:  6:59 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   7:00 PM CDT

Tim