Thursday, May 26, 2016

May 26, 2016: Fog, drizzle with more rain moving in on Friday (Future radar in this post)

/Issued 5:06 PM CDT, Thursday, May 26, 2016/

24-hour rainfall total map ending the morning of May 26, 2016.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center; National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota; MesoWest

Text reports below















Sarona, WI:  1.49"
7 WNW of Minong, WI:  0.86"
Hayward, WI:  1.47"
5 WSW of Spirit, WI:  1.13"
1 N of Park Falls, WI:  1.01"

1 WSW of Saxon, WI:  1.75"
1 S of Hawthorne, WI:  0.76"
3 ENE of South Range, WI:  0.56"
6 NE of Hertel, WI:  1.68"
Danbury, WI:  1.22"

3 W of Clam Lake, WI:  2.00"
3 E of Namekagon, WI:  1.95"
11 SSE of Brule, WI:  1.39"
Washburn, WI:  0.69"
Glidden, WI:  1.33"

Ashland, WI:  1.12"
6 ESE of Cloverdale, MN:  0.80"
Duluth, MN:  0.17"
International Falls, MN:  0.17"
Brainerd, MN:  0.18"

Hurley, WI:  1.33"
Park Falls, WI:  1.13"
Superior, WI:  0.30"
Two Harbors, MN:  0.30"
Silver Bay, MN:  0.22"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.05"

Note:  Lots of ups and downs in the temperature department this month - In the end May 2016 will finish above average for number of 80 and 90 degree days, and should finish slightly above average in the number of 70 degree days.
















Pattern change still looks likely by the end of next week as the current southwest flow aloft switches to northwest flow aloft after June 1st.  Source, Weather Prediction Center; 500mb forecast valid for Thursday, June 2, 2016.

A scattered frost threat is possible in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin sometime between June 3rd-5th.















Filtered storm reports map for May 25, 2016.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Red dots=Tornado reports
Blue dots=Damaging wind reports (58 mph or stronger)
Green dots=Large hail reports (1.00 inch or greater in diameter)

**3:10 PM CDT, 5/25/16:  TORNADO.  1 SSW of Villard, MN (Pope County)  Boats flipped, shed damaged and shingles off roofs near Amelia Lake.














Future radar for Friday from the 18z 4km NAM; Source, TropicalTidbits.com

Note:  By far not a slam dunk forecast for the timing of Friday's rain and where the rain falls but here's one models take on how things could play out for Friday.

















































Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  May 26, 2016

An area of showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall moved northeast through parts of northwest Wisconsin this morning while fog, low clouds and drizzle lingered around Lake Superior.  Changes took place in most of the Northland this afternoon as skies cleared out a bit allowing temperatures to warm into the 70s with a few locations making it to around 80.  Much cooler temperatures in the 50s prevailed though near Lake Superior where areas of low clouds and fog continued as of late this afternoon.  Surface map at 3 PM had low pressure over southern Manitoba Province with a cold front heading east out of central and eastern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  Medium to High.

Tonight:  Low pressure remains to our north while the cold front over the Northland late this afternoon washes out during the night.  A few showers or thunderstorms are possible this evening away from Lake Superior with more showers possibly moving into southern sections of the Northland after Midnight.  Low temperatures will be in the 50s with 40s near Lake Superior where areas of dense fog and drizzle will persist tonight.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday:  Low pressure along with a warm front moves north/northeast out of the central Plains and into the Upper Midwest -- The warm front is forecast to extend from south central Minnesota to north central Wisconsin.  Rain and a few thunderstorms will be common tomorrow across most of the Northland with some heavier rainfall possible at times mainly in eastern Minnesota into northern Wisconsin.  Highs will be in the 60s and 70s with 40s and 50s near Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the south, east or north at 10 to 15 mph.

...Looking ahead...

Confidence:  Low to Medium.

Occasional showers are possible on Saturday as an area of low pressure remains over the Upper Midwest.

Model differences are large for Sunday with the NAM keeping rain over the Northland along with cool temperatures while the GFS and EUROPEAN models are quite a bit drier and also a lot warmer!  For now just have to watch the model trends, just not real sure yet which solution is correct.

Memorial Day might end up dry with temperatures in the 70s in most of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Rain chances increase for Tuesday-Wednesday, May 31-June 1.















Normal temperatures for May 27th at Duluth, Minnesota

High:  65
Low:  44

Sunrise Friday:  5:21 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   8:51 PM CDT

Tim








Wednesday, May 25, 2016

May 25, 2016: Fog and drizzle lingers into Thursday morning; 70s to around 80 degrees on Thursday (Much cooler near Lake Superior) Storm reports included in this post. Frost potential June 3rd-5th

/Issued 6:45 PM CDT, Wednesday, May 25, 2016/

Upper Midwest radar loop ending at 6:30 PM CDT May 25, 2016.  Source, WSI.

Note:  Rain is coming to an end a few hours earlier than expected in Duluth and Superior, still a chance for a few scattered showers for the rest of tonight in the Twin Ports but fog and drizzle will likely be the main weather hazards tonight.













Thursday's severe weather outlook.  Source, WSI; Storm Prediction Center.

Enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms (Orange shaded area on map)
Slight risk for severe thunderstorms (Yellow shaded area on map)
Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms (Light green shaded area on map)
Dark green=Risk for non-severe thunderstorms

Note:  A 5 point scale with 5 being the highest risk for severe thunderstorms and 1 the lowest risk for severe thunderstorms.













Long range trends continue to support a cooler weather pattern for the first weekend of June with a possible frost threat sometime between June 3rd-5th in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

 Image below is from today's 12z EUROPEAN model valid for next Friday, June 3, 2016 -- 850mb temperature anomaly forecast.  Blue and purple colors represent below to well below average temperatures.













Low temperature forecast for tonight.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.



















High temperature forecast for Thursday.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.



















Filtered storm reports map for May 24, 2016.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Red dots=Tornado reports
Blue dots=Damaging wind reports (58 mph or stronger)
Green dots=Large hail reports (1.00" or greater in diameter)

Note:  106 warnings were issued in parts of 12 states on Tuesday.  73 severe thunderstorm warnings and 33 tornado warnings.

Montana, Colorado, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Upper Michigan.














*Local Storm Reports*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*4:44 PM CDT 5/24/16:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  6 NW of Mercer, WI (Iron County)  Trees down at Highway 51 and Moose Lake Road.

*7:41 PM CDT 5/24/16:  HAIL.  0.25".  Pine River, MN (Cass County)  Lots of pea sized hail.

*7:59 PM CDT 5/24/16:  HAIL.  0.25".  2 SW of Rossburg, MN (Aitkin County)  Peas to 0.5 inch hail.

*8:33 PM CDT 5/24/16:  HAIL.  0.88".  3 NE of Pontoria, MN (Cass County)

*3:20 PM CDT 5/25/16:  HAIL.  1.50".  1 N of Minong, WI (Washburn County)

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  May 25, 2016

A foggy, windy and chilly day near Lake Superior with east winds in the 15 to 30 mph range with temperatures holding in the 40s to low/mid 50s.  The remainder of the Northland had milder temperatures with highs in the 60s and 70s today.

Low pressure has moved into eastern North Dakota late this afternoon with a warm front extending southeast through south central Minnesota.  An area of rain with embedded thunderstorms has been tracking north/northeast across most of the Northland this afternoon with heavier downpours occurring at times.  A few strong to severe thunderstorms have also occurred this afternoon in parts of northwest Wisconsin with enough instability in place to produce these stronger storms -- Afternoon mesoanalysis showed around 500 j/kg of elevated CAPE in place in northwest Wisconsin.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  Medium to High.

Tonight:  A warm front will lift slowly north/northeast out of southern Minnesota while a cold front heads northeast into the Upper Midwest, low pressure will remain over the northern Plains.  Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will persist over the Northland tonight.  Note:  The greatest instability should remain over western/southern portions of the area with CAPE up around 500 j/kg with Lifted Indices of 0 to -2C.  Around 30 knots of deep layer shear is in place along with favorable effective storm relative helicity values of 100-200 m2/s2 near the warm front which will lift into central Minnesota tonight...An isolated risk for strong to severe thunderstorms will be found near this warm front tonight with hail and gusty winds being the main threats.  Low temperatures will be in the 50s with 40s near Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the east or southeast at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Thursday:  An area of low pressure will move into southern Ontario Province while a warm front and cold front continue to track through the Northland.  The chance for showers and thunderstorms isn't as high tomorrow as it was for today but with lingering moisture, instability and a few boundaries nearby, a few showers and thunderstorms could develop.  If thunderstorms do form they will have favorable convective parameters in place for a risk of isolated strong or severe thunderstorms especially over northwest Wisconsin.  Highs on Thursday will be in the 70s to around 80 degrees with much cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Lows Thursday night will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

...Looking ahead...

Confidence:  Medium.

A risk for showers and thunderstorms continues on Friday and Saturday (27th-28th) We might dry out on Sunday and possibly for most of Memorial Day but confidence on that actually happening is low.

A southwest flow aloft will remain in place through early next week with moist and unstable air pushing north into the Upper Midwest at times -- Low pressure disutrbances will eject out of the Rockies and Plains and those features combined with passing warm fronts and cold fronts will help trigger a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the Northland through the middle of next week.

Looking farther out...A scattered frost potential continues in parts of the Northland during the June 3-5 time frame as much cooler air drops south out of central Canada.














Normal temperatures for May 26th at Duluth, Minnesota

High:  65
Low:   43

Sunrise Thursday:  5:22 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   8:50 PM CDT

Tim


Tuesday, May 24, 2016

May 24, 2016: Gusty east winds, cool, foggy and some drizzle in the Twin Ports through Wednesday; Rain moves in Wednesday afternoon/evening. Storm reports and rainfall reports included in this post

/Issued 5:42 PM CDT, Tuesday, May 24, 2016/

Severe weather outlook for Wednesday, May 25, 2016.  Source, WSI; Storm Prediction Center.

*Slight risk for severe thunderstorms in yellow.
*Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms in light green.
*Risk for non-severe thunderstorms in dark green.

Note:  5 point scale with 1 being the lowest risk and 5 being the highest risk for severe thunderstorms.














Filtered Storm Reports map for May 23, 2016.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Red dots=Tornado reports
Blue dots=Damaging wind reports (58 mph or stronger)
Green dots=Large hail reports (1.00" or greater in diameter)















24-hour rainfall total map ending the morning of May 24, 2016.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.
















7-day rainfall forecast valid through May 31, 2016.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.
















Low temperature forecast for tonight.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, MN.





















High temperature forecast for Wednesday.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, MN.




















24-hour rainfall totals ending at around 6 AM on May 24, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, MN; MesoWest

Bayfield, WI:  1.65"
2 SW of Moose Lake, MN:  1.57"
Washburn, WI:  1.50"
Ashland, WI:  1.12"
Grand Rapids, MN:  1.08"
Walker, MN:  1.03"

Two Harbors, MN:  0.98"
1 WSW of Maple, WI:  0.96"
Solon Springs, WI:  0.92"
5 S of Ely, MN:  0.89"
Saginaw, MN:  0.78"
Brookston, MN:  0.75"

Barnes, WI:  0.71"
Glidden, WI:  0.63"
3 ENE of South Range, WI:  0.56"
Superior, WI:  0.50"
Silver Bay, MN:  0.44"
Grand Portage, MN:  0.44"

Littlefork, MN:  0.39"
2 NE of Duluth, MN:  0.37"
1 ESE of Esko, MN:  0.25"

*Local Storm Reports*
Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota


*5/24/16 (4:55 PM CDT)  HAIL.  0.50".  2 ENE of Mercer, WI (Iron County)  Pea sized hail with largest hail of 0.5".

*5/23/16 (5:36 PM CDT)  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  3 SSW of Iron River, WI (Bayfield County)  A couple of 6" diameter softwood pine trees broken at ground level and some at 20 feet above ground level.

*5/23/16 (5:40 PM CDT)  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Iron River, WI (Bayfield County)  Report of several trees down in Iron River.  A few fell on US-2.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota & NW Wisconsin
Date:  May 24, 2016

A messy surface pattern remains in place today with a frontal boundary more or less over central Minnesota while another front pushes south/west off Lake Superior.  

Scattered showers and thunderstorms with heavy downpours affected parts of the Northland early this morning which was followed by partly to mostly sunny skies this afternoon.

Lingering moisture and instability combined with a decent amount of convergence associated with the westward moving boundary off Lake Superior helped to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon in far northern Wisconsin with other spotty activity occurring most of the day across far northern Minnesota.  The majority of these storms have remained below severe levels today although one storm has reached severe criteria this afternoon over parts of Ashland and Iron County in northern Wisconsin.

Highs today were in the 70s to lower 80s but it has turned cooler this afternoon near Lake Superior thanks to a stronger push of onshore winds late this afternoon.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota & NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  Medium.

Tonight:  A few showers and thunderstorms especially during the evening hours.  There is sufficient amounts of moisture, instability and enough wind shear in place to support an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm risk in parts of the Northland this evening.  Otherwise expect a partly to mostly cloudy sky through the night with areas of fog developing mainly near Lake Superior.  Low temperatures will mainly be in the 50s with 40s near Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the east or southeast at 5 to 15 mph,  higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Wednesday:  An area of low pressure is forecast to move northeast into the northern Plains tomorrow while a warm front lifts slowly north out of southern Minnesota -- Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms are expected in the Northland especially during the afternoon and evening hours.  A stronger flow off Lake Superior will likely keep the amount of instability on the low side in most of our area tomorrow so severe weather isn't a real big concern.  Heavy rain and occasional lightning should be the primary hazards in any thunderstorm that manages to develop on Wednesday.  High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s with 40s near Lake Superior, fog and drizzle is also possible near Lake Superior tomorrow.  Winds will be out of the east or southeast at 10 to 15 mph with stronger gusts near Lake Superior.

...Looking ahead...

Confidence:  Medium.

The overall weather pattern will change little through the holiday weekend - A southwest flow aloft will be in place with moist and unstable air pushing north at times into the Upper Midwest.  Low pressure disturbances lifting northeast out of the Plains combined with the moist/unstable air will likely produce occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the Northland from Thursday through Memorial Day (May 26-30)  Note:  Even though there are rain chances every day through Memorial Day the pattern that is setting up favors dry hours as well, so I wouldn't cancel any outdoor plans but just have a plan B ready just in case.  

As for temperatures, expect daytime highs to be in the 70s, possibly up near 80 degrees from Thursday through Monday but it will remain cooler near Lake Superior.

Heads up!  Could be dealing with a patchy frost threat sometime during the June 3-6 time frame in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin...That'll be something to watch for late next week/weekend.
















Normal temperatures for May 25th at Duluth, Minnesota

High:  65
Low:   43

Sunrise Wednesday:  5:23 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   8:49 PM CDT

Tim










Monday, May 23, 2016

May 23, 2016: Scattered showers/t'storms tonight; 70s to around 80 degrees on Tuesday (Isolated t'storm risk)

/Issued 5:48 PM CDT, Monday, May 23, 2016/

Upper Midwest radar loop ending at 5:30 PM CDT, May 23, 2016.  Source, WSI.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms affecting northwest Wisconsin and parts of northern and eastern Minnesota late this afternoon.  So far the rain has stayed away from Duluth, will see if that continues this evening.













A wetter weather pattern across the Upper Midwest through the holiday weekend but it likely won't rain every day through Memorial Day, and some locations might actually miss out on a lot of the rain, that's how it works with thunderstorms, some areas get a lot of rain, others not as much.  Source, Weather Prediction Center (7-day rainfall forecast valid through May 30, 2016)















The 2016 U.S. tornado season is running below average through May 22nd.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Average:  691 tornadoes through the 22nd of May.
Actual total:  499 tornadoes.













127 tornado reports so far this month in the U.S.  The average for May is 186 tornadoes (1986-2015 average)  Note:  The NCDC 1991-2010 average is 243.  Source, @USTornadoes; Storm Prediction Center.

*February 23rd continues to hold the number one spot for most active tornado day so far this year with a total of 52 tornadoes.

*26 preliminary tornadoes on May 22nd -- 6th most active tornado day so far this year.















Low temperature forecast for tonight.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.



















High temperature forecast for Tuesday.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.



















Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  May 23, 2016

A morning round of showers and thunderstorms affected western portions of the Northland, generally west of a line from International Falls to Brainerd, this activity weakened as it moved east so much of northeast Minnesota remained dry today.

Showers and thunderstorms redeveloped late this afternoon over northwest Wisconsin with most of this activity through 4 PM today along and east of a line from Pine City to Solon Springs to Bayfield.  Moisture and instability has come up today as expected but the amount of instability is fairly low with CAPE values generally around 500 j/kg per mesoanalysis.  Dew points have climbed into the mid 50s to around 60 degrees though and PWATS have increased to over 1.30" this afternoon which is leading to heavy rainfall rates of a half inch to one inch an hour in parts of northwest Wisconsin late this afternoon.

Mostly cloudy skies were common in the Northland today with mild late spring temperatures with highs in the 70s to lower 80s.  Winds were out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  Medium to Low.

Starting off with tonight -- The best convergence has setup over northwest Wisconsin into extreme eastern Minnesota and this has led to an area of showers and thunderstorms which should continue while moving northeast this evening.  Heavy rainfall and lightning will be the main hazards out of this activity with a slight chance for hail and gusty winds before 10 PM.

A few showers and thunderstorms will also affect extreme northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead this evening.  Elsewhere the trends don't look very promising for rain tonight but with the weak instability and moisture already in place and with a weak boundary to our west, a few showers or thunderstorms could certainly sprout up from time to time through the night.

Could be some patchy fog late tonight but this should burn off Tuesday morning.  Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s and 60s with southerly winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Next order of business is what happens on Tuesday?  Frontal boundary which is currently sitting to the north/west of the Northland pushes south tomorrow as high pressure builds southeast toward northern Ontario and Hudson Bay -- A few of the computer models want to develop scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Northland on Tuesday with a potentially unstable and moist airmass overhead.

Highs on Tuesday will be in the 70s and 80s but turning cooler near Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

...Looking ahead...

Confidence:  Low.

From mid to late week will have high pressure near Hudson Bay while low pressure systems eject northeast out of the Rockies and Plains -- Periods of showers and thunderstorms are possible over the Northland on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s to around 70 degrees from Wednesday through Friday but it will be cooler near Lake Superior due to a stronger onshore flow...Fog and drizzle could also develop near Lake Superior from mid to late week.















Normal temperatures at Duluth for May 24th.

High:  65
Low:  43

Sunrise Tuesday:  5:24 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   8:48 PM CDT

Tim








Sunday, May 22, 2016

May 22, 2016 - Extreme fire danger today in northeast Minnesota; Keeping an eye on Monday's thunderstorm chances; Future radar for Monday included in this post

/Issued 11:34 AM CDT, Sunday, May 22, 2016/

Fire danger ratings map for May 22, 2016.  Source, MNDNR.

Extreme fire danger across a large part of Minnesota today.



















Elevated fire risk in all of the Northland today (Orange shaded area on map)  Source, Storm Prediction Center.














Red Flag Warning in effect through early this evening for northern Minnesota (Pink shaded area on map)  Source, Aerisweather.com; National Weather Service.

More information at the link below.

Red Flag Warning -- http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=red%20flag%20warning















Last week's temperature departure map -- Below average temperatures in all but far northwest Minnesota and around the head of Lake Superior.















Last week was a dry one! This week should be a little wetter.















Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

May 15-21, 2016

High temperatures:

5/15:  60 F/-2 degrees below normal
5/16:  56 F/-6 degrees below normal
5/17:  61 F/-2 degrees below normal
5/18:  68 F/+5 degrees above normal
5/19:  70 F/+7 degrees above normal
5/20:  73 F/+9 degrees above normal
5/21:  80 F/+16 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

5/15:  28 F/-12 degrees below normal
5/16:  37 F/-4 degrees below normal
5/17:  35 F/-6 degrees below normal
5/18:  38 F/-3 degrees below normal
5/19:  40 F/-2 degrees below normal
5/20:  44 F/+2 degrees above normal
5/21:  43 F/+1 degree above normal

Total precipitation:  0.03"
Normal:  0.73"
Departure:  -0.70" below normal

Future radar for Monday, May 23, 2016 per 12z WRF-NSSL model; Pivotalweather.com

The leading edge of the deeper moisture could set off a few showers/thunderstorms in parts of the Northland Monday morning.





























New thunderstorm development could take place across central Minnesota Monday afternoon roughly during the 1-3 PM time frame according to the 12z WRF-NSSL computer model.











































It will be another day of warm temperatures and low humidity values across the Northland with southerly winds in the 10 to 20 mph range with higher gusts possible during the afternoon-evening hours.  High temperatures today will be in the 70s to lower 80s.

Much cooler temperatures will be found closer to Lake Superior due to a somewhat stronger lake breeze today, high temperatures will likely hold in the 50s and 60s today from Superior to Downtown Duluth and up along the North Shore of Lake Superior -- The wind coming off Lake Superior will also keep the fire danger somewhat lower today along the North Shore due to the cooler and somewhat more humid airmass coming off Lake Superior.

...Looking ahead to Monday's thunderstorm chances in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin...

A cold front over the northern Plains will move slowly toward the east through Monday.  Moisture will be on the increase out ahead of this front thanks to a strengthening S/SW low level jet of 30-45 knots tonight and Monday morning -- Dew points in our area are expected to climb into the 55-65 degree range on Monday with PWATS well over 1.00" along with 850mb dew points of around +12C or higher.  So we will have the moisture available for convection but other ingredients are not as impressive tomorrow.

-Mid level lapse rates are expected to be at around 6.0 c/km.

-Bulk shear values generally around 20-30 knots (Kinda weak)

-CAPE will generally be in the 500-1000 j/kg range although it is possible that will have pockets of higher instability upwards of around 1500 j/kg but that will depend on how much clearing/heating can take place after Monday morning.

-Low level jet at around 25-35 knots Monday afternoon with mid level winds generally around 30 knots.

-Upper level winds >70 knots over the Red River Valley, a lot of times thunderstorms like to form southeast of where the axis of stronger winds aloft are located so that would put the Northland in a decent location for convection on Monday.

Bottom line:  I do expect scattered showers and thunderstorms in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Monday with lightning and heavy downpours being the primary hazards but small hail and gusty winds will also be possible in the strongest storms.

The potential for severe thunderstorms (1.00"+ diameter hail and or winds of 58 mph or stronger) doesn't look very high for tomorrow but a storm approaching severe levels is certainly possible either Monday afternoon or evening (2 PM-10 PM time frame)

Tim