Wednesday, July 30, 2014

July 30, 2014 Weather Report - Perfect summer weather. Mild days, cool nights, spotty PM storms through Friday. Northland storm reports included in this post.

/Issued 4:13 PM CDT, Wednesday, July 30, 2014/

Local Storm Reports for July 30, 2014
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, MN

*4:00 PM CDT:  0.50" HAIL.  Stone Lake, WI (Sawyer County)

*3:55 PM CDT:  0.88" HAIL.  Stone Lake, WI (Sawyer County)  Dime to nickel sized hail.

*4:34 PM CDT:  0.50" HAIL.  Spooner, WI (Washburn County)

*4:33 PM CDT:  0.50" HAIL.  Spooner, WI (Washburn County)  Half inch to pea sized hail.

*4:24 PM CDT:  0.25" HAIL.  Trego, WI (Washburn County)  Thumb sized tree branches downed.  Very heavy rainfall near Trego.

*3:34 PM CDT:  1.00" HAIL.  5 SW of Hayward, WI (Washburn County)  Hail to the size of dimes and quarters.

Rainfall report for July 29, 2014
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, MN

Duluth, MN:  0.39"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.48"
Ashland, WI:  0.22"
Hayward, WI:  0.50"
Bruno, MN:  0.22"
Cook, MN:  0.26"
Embarrass, MN:  0.65"
Finland, MN:  0.27"
3 S of Ashland, WI:  0.29"
Butternut, WI:  0.42"
Gurney, WI:  0.23"
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  0.36"
Winter, WI:  0.38"

Weather Summary for July 30, 2014
Location:  NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Nothing says summer like smoke/haze so thick that it's hard to see the clouds in the sky.  I don't think the weather could be any nicer, classic summer weather lately with sun, haze, smoke, puffy clouds, and spotty storms.

More of the same Today with high temperatures in the 70s to around 80 degrees across the Northland with dew points generally in the 50s.  Partly to mostly sunny skies were common along with northwesterly breezes which were in the 10-20 mph range.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed once again This Afternoon with the most intense storms affecting a small portion of Northwest Wisconsin including portions of Highway 53 and 63 in Douglas, Washburn, and Sawyer Counties with large hail and strong winds associated with those storms.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Thursday Night (July 30-31)

Spotty showers and thunderstorms will continue over parts of the Northland This Evening, mainly affecting the North Shore, Arrowhead, as well as portions of Northwest Wisconsin.  A few of these storms could be on the strong side with gusty winds and hail along with brief torrential downpours and dangerous lightning.

Partly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with lows in the 40s and 50s.  Partly to mostly sunny skies on Thursday with highs in the 70s to lower 80s, could see a few spotty PM showers/thunderstorms once again with mainly dry weather for Thursday Night as lows fall into the 50s.  Winds through this period will be out of the north or west at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Friday through Sunday (August 1-3)

Still can't shake that spotty shower/thunderstorm risk Friday Afternoon-Evening.  Saturday looks mainly dry.  A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible from Saturday Night into Sunday as a cold front settles into the Upper Midwest.

Highs are forecast to be in the 70s and low 80s through this period with cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the 50s to lower 60s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(August 4-9)

Near to below average temperatures are expected through this period.  Most of the rain next week might setup south of the Northland depending on the placement of a frontal boundary and also an area of high pressure.  Stay tuned.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 75 to 80.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 52 to 57.  Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 73 to 78.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 51 to 56.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 72 to 77 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 51 to 56.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 74 to 79.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  77
Low:   56

Sunrise Thursday:  5:47 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   8:42 PM CDT

Tim

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Northland storm reports for July 29, 2014

/Issued 8:06 PM CDT, Tuesday, July 29, 2014/

Local Storm Reports for July 29, 2014
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*2:39 PM CDT:  0.88" HAIL.  E Ashland, WI (Ashland County)

*2:41 PM CDT:  48MPH THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  Ashland, WI (Ashland County)

*3:15 PM CDT:  1.00" HAIL.  7 SE of Brimson, MN (Lake County)  Gusty winds as well.

*2:50 PM CDT:  0.50" HAIL.  2 E of Fifield, WI (Price County)  Lots of hail covering the ground.

*3:20 PM CDT:  0.75" HAIL.  High Bridge, WI (Ashland County)

*3:59 PM CDT:  0.25" HAIL.  3 N of Butternut, WI (Ashland County)  Hail covering the ground.

*3:51 PM CDT:  32MPH THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  1 N of Knife River, MN (Lake County)

*4:54 PM CDT:  36MPH THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  1 S of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  At Sky Harbor Airport.

*4:36 PM CDT:  MARINE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  43MPH.  1 N of Port Wing, WI (Bayfield County)

*7:30 PM CDT:  MARINE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  45MPH.  1 N of Port Wing, WI (Bayfield County)

Tim

July 29, 2014 Weather Report - Showers/t'storms end This Evening; Mild temperatures the next few days with spotty showers/t'storms. Radar images of Today's storms included in this post.

/Issued 3:49 PM CDT, Tuesday, July 29, 2014/

Posting a few radar images of the severe warned cells that developed This Afternoon per GR2 analyst radar.

This 1st image is of the severe thunderstorm that affected areas around Butternut Wisconsin (Ashland County) around 3:30 PM Today.  Cloud tops leveling off at around 30,000 feet with this storm.

















Here's a radar view of the severe thunderstorms that moved through parts of Lake County/far SE St. Louis County in Northeast Minnesota around 3 PM Today.


















And finally here is a radar image which shows a well defined gust front (long skinny blue line) which blasted through the Twin Ports between 4:30-5 PM Today with winds to 30 mph and a temperature drop of about 15 degrees.  These gust fronts form on the leading edge of rain cooled air.

















Weather Summary for July 29, 2014
Location:  NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed This Afternoon over portions of the Northland with the most widespread activity generally over the Arrowhead, North Shore, Iron Range, and into Northwest Wisconsin.  A few of the storms did turn severe This Afternoon with reports of gusty winds and hail.  The atmosphere was much more unstable Today compared to Monday, with plenty of surface heating and cold temperatures aloft resulting in a more favorable environment for thunderstorms Today.

High temperatures were generally in the 70s Today with a mix of sun and clouds.  Winds were out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Wednesday Night (July 29-30)

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through about mid Evening, a few of the storms could be on the strong side with gusty winds and hail possible. 

Mainly dry weather is expected Overnight through Wednesday Morning, then we could see a few spotty showers and thunderstorms redevelop Wednesday Afternoon/Evening, although coverage should be a bit less Tomorrow compared to what were seeing Today.

Low temperatures Tonight and Wednesday Night will be in the 50s to around 60, but a few spots might dip into the 40s.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the 70s to around 80.  Northwest winds will continue during this period at 10 to around 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Thursday through Saturday (July 31-August 2)

More of the same for Thursday and Friday in that we could see a few spotty showers and thunderstorms during the Afternoon and Evening hours.  Saturday looks mainly dry at this time.

High temperatures are expected to be in the 70s to around 80 from Thursday through Saturday with lows Thursday Night and Friday Night in the 50s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(August 3-8)

Near normal temperatures on the 3rd with normal to below normal temperatures possible from the 4th-8th.  A few showers/thunderstorms are possible on Sunday (3rd)  with another chance for some rain during the 6th-7th time frame.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly before 9 PM.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 52 to 57.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 75 to 80.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 52 to 57.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  Isolated Afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 75 to 80.

.Thursday Night...  Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible early.  Partly cloudy.  Low 52 to 57.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 75 to 80.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 51 to 56.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 77 to 82.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  77
Low:   56

Sunrise Wednesday:  5:46 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:    8:43 PM CDT

Tim

Monday, July 28, 2014

July 28, 2014 Weather Report - Very nice temperatures the next few days with isolated Afternoon-Evening showers/t-storms.

/Issued 4:41 PM CDT, Monday, July 28, 2014/

A marginal, 5% chance for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday over all of Northwest Wisconsin and in parts of Northeast Minnesota (Brown shaded area on the map) Hail will be the main threat if storms become a little rowdy Tomorrow Afternoon.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.
















Weather Summary for July 28, 2014
Location:  NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Temperatures warmed up nicely Today especially when compared to what we saw on Sunday.  Highs Today were generally in the 70s with winds from the north or northwest at 10 to 15 mph.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies were common Today with spotty showers affecting the Arrowhead of Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Tuesday Night (July 28-29)

Cold temperatures aloft and a NNW flow will cover the area during this period.  Spotty showers and isolated thunderstorms This Evening will give way to clear to partly cloudy skies later in the night.  A few showers and thunderstorms should redevelop then Tomorrow Afternoon/Evening before dissipating later Tomorrow Night.  The atmosphere will become a little more unstable on Tuesday so thunderstorms that do form might be on the strong side especially over the Arrowhead, North Shore, and in parts of Northwest Wisconsin.

Low temperatures Tonight and Tuesday Night will mainly be in the 50s with highs Tomorrow mainly in the 70s.  Winds will remain out of the north or northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Wednesday through Friday (July 30-August 1)

Spotty showers and thunderstorms will remain a possibility through this period with the Afternoon and Evening hours holding the greatest chance for isolated rainfall.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s to around 80 degrees with lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night in the 50s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(August 2-7)

Near normal temperatures are expected to continue through this period.  There's a chance for a few showers or thunderstorms on the 2nd-3rd, and possibly again toward the 6th or 7th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Isolated showers possible early.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 53 to 58.  Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 73 to 78.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible early.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 53 to 58.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible during the Afternoon.  High 74 to 79.

.Wednesday Night...  Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible early.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 53 to 58.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 75 to 80.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 52 to 57.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 73 to 78.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  77
Low:   56

Sunrise Tuesday:  5:45 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   8:45 PM CDT

Tim

Sunday, July 27, 2014

July 27, 2014 Weather Report - Skies slowly clearing Tonight; Pleasant temperatures and spotty showers through Wednesday; 1950-2013 Northland tornado tracks included in this post.

/Issued 4:38 PM CDT, Sunday, July 27, 2014/

Northland tornado tracks centered on St. Louis County Minnesota from 1950-2013 via NWS Storm Prediction Center, and Midwest Regional Climate Center.

Blue lines=F/EF0 tornado tracks
Green lines=F/EF1 tornado tracks
Yellow lines=F/EF2 tornado tracks
Orange lines=F/EF3 tornado tracks
Red lines=F/EF4 tornado tracks

Tornadoes can happen around here, just not as often as what you would expect to see in traditional tornado alley - Central Plains.























The basic weather pattern through the next 5 days or so will consist of a strong upper trough (cold temps aloft) and a NNW flow from Central Canada through the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley.  The coolest temperatures will be found east/northeast/southeast of the Upper Midwest.  500mb map for Wednesday, July 30, 2014.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

















500mb map valid for Sunday, August 3, 2014.  Pretty similar pattern to the image above, coolest air remains north/east/southeast of the Upper Midwest.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

















Note:  The high temperature at the Duluth Airport failed to reach 70 degrees Today, July 27th.  This is the 1st time since July 14th that the high temperature didn't reach 70 degrees (About 2 weeks ago)  And this is also just the 3rd time this month with a high temperature cooler than 70F.

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, MN (Airport location)

July 20-26, 2014

High temperatures:

7/20:  85F/8 degrees above normal
7/21:  88F/11 degrees above normal
7/22:  79F/2 degrees above normal
7/23:  76F/1 degree below normal
7/24:  78F/1 degree above normal
7/25:  70F/7 degrees below normal
7/26:  85F/8 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

7/20:  64F/8 degrees above normal
7/21:  72F/16 degrees above normal
7/22:  60F/4 degrees above normal
7/23:  56F/Normal
7/24:  54F/2 degrees below normal
7/25:  61F/5 degrees above normal
7/26:  61F/5 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.31"
Normal:  0.77"
Departure:  -0.46"

Last week's temperature departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.




















Last week's precipitation departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.




















Weather Summary for July 27, 2014
Location:  NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1002mb was located to our south/east Today with a strong area of high pressure averaging 1026mb over Saskatchewan.  A much cooler airmass has settled into the area Today with plenty of clouds and showers to boot.  There has been some drizzle and fog at times near Lake Superior.  Highs Today were in the 50s and 60s with some locales getting into the low 70s, mainly over the Brainerd Lakes and also along the Ontario-Minnesota border where clearing was taking place This Afternoon.  Winds Today were out of the north, northwest, or east at 10 to 25 mph.

Storm reports map for July 26, 2014.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Green dots=Large hail reports
Blue dots=Damaging wind reports















Playing around with GR2 analyst radar for the next week or two, this is an image of the tornado warned storm from Saturday Evening near the Rice Lake and Cumberland areas in Northwest Wisconsin.  Cloud tops poking up to around 40,000 feet!



















Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (July 27)

Showers will diminish This Evening, skies will vary from partly to mostly cloudy.  Lows will be in the 40s and 50s with winds out of the north, northwest, or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Monday and Monday Night (July 28)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with spotty mainly Afternoon-Evening showers.  Highs will get back into the 70s for most locations with lows Monday Night mainly in the 50s.  North or west winds are forecast at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tuesday through Thursday (July 29-31)

Spotty Afternoon-Evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible through this period as cold temperatures aloft and warmer air near the surface help to make the atmosphere a little unstable, that combined with a NNW mid/upper level flow and possible weak disturbances dropping south out of Central Canada could lead to isolated rain/convection from Tuesday through Thursday.

High temperatures will mainly be in the 70s during this period with lows Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night in the 50s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(August 1-6)

Near normal temperatures are expected as we kick off the month of August.  Can't rule out a spotty shower or thunderstorm on the 1st, and then again around the 3rd.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy with some drizzle and fog giving way to some clearing during the night.  Low 48 to 53.  Wind north around 12 mph.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 72 to 77.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday Night...  Isolated showers early.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind west around 12 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 73 to 78.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Isolated showers early.  Low 50 to 55.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible during the Afternoon.  High 73 to 78.

.Wednesday Night...  Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible early.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 73 to 78.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  77
Low:   56

Sunrise Monday:  5:44 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   8:46 PM CDT

Tim